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May 29, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-77

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on May 29, 2022 at 14:02 UTC | Permalink

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There is a story circulating: A woman called Yulia Paevskaya (Tyra) is said to have murdered the parents of two small children, in order to pretend to be the mother of the children so she could escape Azovstal. But was caught when the children spoke up at a checkpoint.

Super evil if true. Any confirmation?

Posted by: Rune Denmark | May 29 2022 14:33 utc | 1

@Posted by: Rune Denmark | May 29 2022 14:33 utc | 1

Yulia Paevskaya is the Ukrainian volunteer "hero paramedic" who was taken prisoner in Mariupol, used for a lot of propaganda. Don't see much confirmation for the story of her killing the mother, we will have to wait and see. If its true, she will be charged with the crime.

Posted by: Roger | May 29 2022 14:42 utc | 2

I am hearing more and more reports of the US plans to send long range rockets/missiles to the Ukraine, showing the inability of the US deep state neocons to find reverse gear, as Mercouris puts it, the only gear they know is "double down". This is a very explicit escalation if it ends up in attacks on cities deep in Russia, which will cause a huge Russian upswell for retaliation; even if Russian defence systems intercept them (which will be a huge marketing problem for the US MIC).

The Russians should make sure that Zelensky understands that he will be a deadman walking if such a thing happens, the beheading of the Ukrainian command and control structure should be the immediate response. Any attack on US installations would be understandable, but a serious error in facilitating the US need for a widened conflict (and gaining a domestic cause celebre for the MIC and the Democrats).

Better to let lots of those stinger missiles get into the hands of Hamas etc. in a plausible deniability way, and watch Western jets and helicopters start to fall out of the sky - blowback on steroids. The US forces position in Iraq could very quickly become untenable with lots of stingers floating around. Russia needs to stay focused on the objective of a complete takeover and denazification of Ukraine, patience in this case is a virtue. Something that the Chinese have shown in spades.

Posted by: Roger | May 29 2022 15:02 utc | 3

Speaking of the New Atlas, his yesterday's podcast Thailand's NGO Law vs US Meddling was excellent.

And can someone give me better info on how ineffective Javelins are. I've seen the claim in a couple places but perhaps not as authoritative as I'd like.

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | May 29 2022 15:14 utc | 4

I wonder how feasible it would be, given that the RF forces don’t seem to have supply issues with their own weapons, to make the captured Stingers, Javelins etc, operable by charging the batteries etc and then making them available to Hamas and Hezbollah. This would be a step towards levelling up the position in the ME.

Posted by: Vragtes | May 29 2022 15:24 utc | 5

this '''war'' is the gift that keeps giving to all the wrong people and corporations... when, if ever, are ordinary people going to figure this out??

Posted by: james | May 29 2022 15:33 utc | 6

@ Roger | May 29 2022 15:02 utc | 3

Thanks much. Long-range missile attacks into Russia certainly get my attention, as it seems a predestined route to further unpredictable escalation. Way out here in the SF Bay Area, I can understand there's a bulls-eye target over me. Kiev should be able to grok the same.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 29 2022 15:42 utc | 7

"hero paramedic"
Posted by: Rune Denmark | May 29 2022 14:33 utc | 1
Posted by: Roger | May 29 2022 14:42 utc | 2

AP did a feature on that one, 19 May. iirc, I posted same day about the flash drive smuggled in her tampon. Lemme check my browser history.
Ukrainian medic is captured after documenting war

oh. The elaborately illustrated print story has been replaced with video.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 15:47 utc | 8

The Thailand show is ridiculous. I mean real comedy levels. What are the NGOs going to "overthrow" in Thailand exactly? The US torture program underwritten by the Thai military and monarchy? The Thai military running forced "reeducation" programs against workers and union members at the Ford truck plant in Chonburi if they dare go on strike? The Thai military which executes poor people in the street when they ask for the right to vote? The opaque drug running Thai monarchy that serves as basically an untouchable arm of US foreign policy? (Death by lynch mob if criticized). The hard core so-called "globalist" international business community which manufactures cheap computer parts and car parts on the backs of Thai labor? They're gonna stop the US navy from landing ships at Sattahip so lads can go out and rape and pillage local poor women?

The NGOs in Thailand are basically useless and toothless. I lived there. I tried to use them. They don't do anything bro. NGOs are "Part" of US foreign policy there. Not the sole, overarching and "ultra corrupt" primary lever of policy.

Thailand ran a coup in 2014 in Tandem with the coup in Ukraine. Both were basically ultra right wing Nazis. Both useful to Obama's version of US foreign policy interests. One was not fully Nazi in Ukraine, while the other was some kind of "good" nationalist, pro worker, pro democracy, pro humanity, pro local autonomy in Thailand.

This kind of crappy all NGOs are Satan one sided right wing analysis comes off half the time as a bad excuse from bircher sex tourists and US mil torture camps in Isaan. There is a book on it.

Happy Sunday and thanks for your consideration.

Posted by: Tom Huck | May 29 2022 15:55 utc | 9

The Macron/Scholz phone call to Putin was strange. They "urged" him to negotiate. They even "insisted" he release POWs. Obviously we are not getting the whole story. Did they check with Biden before they called? What kind of leverage do they think they have?

Posted by: dh | May 29 2022 15:55 utc | 10

Aleph_Null | May 29 2022 15:42 utc | 7

From what I understand, the time to train a person to use such gear is much too long to be useful in this conflict. It will be over before such skills can be developed...

Posted by: donten | May 29 2022 16:01 utc | 11

james #6; the "elites" of the world occupy all power/money and influential positions in society.
See Davos/WEF.
The rest, the 95% "ordinairy" people are not interested. They are busy with every day life. Surviving the hardships of life.
They are also forcefed with the narrative of the "elites". Telling them what is good or bad.
And ofcourse they will choose the "right" path like all the others.Social behaviour. The tribal community will keep them on the "right" track.
So I expect there will be no change, even when there is hunger. Only uprisings when they have nothing to loose anymore. So the realy poor people will try for a change. See Sri-Lanka.

Posted by: DutchZ | May 29 2022 16:05 utc | 12

I hope Russia is demanding the resumption of potash/fertilizer shipments through Lithuania as part of the Black Sea grain discussions. The EU acts all humanitarian but ignores this.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 29 2022 16:21 utc | 13

Posted by: Tom Huck | May 29 2022 15:55 utc | 9
On that note, today Sputnik reports, US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie Chung's unsolicited QUAD advice. US Pressures Sri Lanka to Curb Powers of President to 'Safeguard Democracy'

The issue of enacting the 21st Amendment also figured in discussions between the British High Commissioner to Colombo Sarah Hulton and the Sri Lankan foreign minister on 26 May, as per an official release. India has also advised Sri Lanka to devolve powers from the executive presidency, a provision which was also part of the India-Sri Lanka Accords in 1987.

while Kishida's wingman, Shinzo Abe, warns If Zelensky Refused to Join NATO, Gave Donbass Autonomy, There Would Be No Hostilities
the only thing that remains now, in his opinion, is to support Ukraine and oppose the Russian special operation there. He further suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin "believes in power and is a realist at the same time" and will not be making sacrifices for ideals and ideas only.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 16:24 utc | 14


I've been watching "military summary" for two weeks now on youtube, which I really recommend, and I'm starting to wonder how the fighting is being conducted on the Donbass front. It sounds like World War I to me. I can hardly believe it:

Living in trenches, millions of grenades, extremely slow movements, if any. No use of airplanes, no use of helicopters, no use of "intelligent" air-to-surface missiles that recognize their target and hit it precisely, even if it's moving. Instead carpet bombing of huge agricultural areas to destroy a few tanks. Distances of a few kilometers become the criteria for whether the enemy can use a road or a railroad, and houses and forests become important hiding places.

Only the drones and their images prove to us that we are in the 21st century. What kind of war is this? Why did the Ukrainians dig kilometers of trenches when they were about to invade the Donbass republics? Why can the Ukrainian troops still be supplied and fortified with all the Russian air superiority?

I just saw a drone video on SlavaZ. A position was hit by a shell. After that, the soldiers calmly continued to move in their trenches. The impact took place 20 m from them and hardly impressed them.

Is Russia waging this war without using all its resources? Doesn't Russia want to risk its planes and helis being shot down? Is it the price of this tactics that the war is being waged with the pace and style of Verdun?

Or is this how war always happens as soon as the enemy has a modern and well equipped army? Carfully holding the distance and all expensive equipment in the background?

Posted by: njet | May 29 2022 16:28 utc | 15

Rune @1
I heard that story about a month ago, without the identifying details.
I heard that a car was stopped at a checkpoint and the Russians noticed the children in the backseat crying and took them aside to ask why. They said that the couple driving the car had murdered their parents and stole the car with the children in it as shields.
The Russians arrested the couple, so I doubt it was the woman you mention, because this was weeks ago.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 29 2022 16:30 utc | 16

What kind of leverage do they think they have?

Posted by: dh | May 29 2022 15:55 utc | 10

They probably have more leverage than Biden. That means a reasonable amount. (Sorry, I forgot. You're an American, and we all have to bow down to Amerika, even while calling it the evil empire). However, in this case, it's only a meaningless automatic call for a cease-fire that are always made when one side is losing heavily, a cease-fire whose conditions would mean a complete victory for the loser.

Posted by: laguerre | May 29 2022 16:32 utc | 17

nothing about any children though. Time will tell.

Posted by: Anne B | May 29 2022 16:35 utc | 18

@ DutchZ | May 29 2022 16:05 utc | 12

thanks.. that is the cynical viewpoint which is often the default position of most on this topic... i am trying to be less cynical, lol...

@ laguerre | May 29 2022 16:32 utc | 17

pretty sure dh is based in the uk..

Posted by: james | May 29 2022 16:40 utc | 19

APsplainin. Russians storm city, shell east Ukraine as Zelenskyy visits

Ukrainian regional officials reported Russian forces “storming” Sievierodonetsk after trying unsuccessfully to encircle the city. The fighting knocked out power and cellphone service, and a humanitarian relief center could not operate because of the danger, the mayor said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a rare frontline visit to the city of Kharkiv as he sought to assert the strength of Ukraine’s position there. Ukrainian fighters pushed Russian forces back from positions near the city, Ukraine’s [NEW!] second-largest, several weeks ago.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 16:44 utc | 20

zelensky is quite the joker looking for a photo op at every corner.... when he has his picture taken with the kardashians, he will know he has arrived, lol..

the reason ukraine is so successful in around kharkiv, is russia ain't trying to kharkiv, but of course he only gets his memos from the cia and hollywood script writers..

Posted by: james | May 29 2022 16:49 utc | 21


The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, questioned the Kremlin’s strategy of assembling a huge military effort to take Sieverodonetsk, saying it was proving costly for Russia and would bring few returns.
The deteriorating conditions raised fears that Sieverodonetsk could become the next Mariupol [old #2 city], a port city 281 kilometers (175 miles) to the south that spent nearly three months under siege before the last Ukrainian fighters surrendered.

An aide to Mariupol’s Ukrainian mayor alleged Sunday that after Russia’s forces [?!] gained complete control of Mariupol, they piled bodies of dead people inside a supermarket.

because all the mobile crematoriums were busted?

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 16:52 utc | 22

Posted by: Rune Denmark | May 29 2022 14:33 utc | 1

There is a story circulating: A woman called Yulia Paevskaya (Tyra) is said to have murdered the parents of two small children, in order to pretend to be the mother of the children so she could escape Azovstal. But was caught when the children spoke up at a checkpoint.

Super evil if true. Any confirmation?

This story first surfaced in late march. Two people were arrested at a checkpoint outside Mariupol in a car with two children. Allegedly the man and woman had murdered the parents and kidnapped their two children.

I also heard that some Azov volunteer medic had been captured. The photo shown was of the same person as the Tyra on the AP video. At that time the two stories were not connected together.

Searching for Yulia Paevskaya on Google brings multiple claims of Azov membership.

N I K I T A @sorryabernein on Twitter, March 22, 2022

Sorry to correct you, Viola, but Yulia Paevskaya is a member of the Asov batallion and has a well-known criminal history from Euromaidan to the Donbass war.

Interesting that the AP video shows two children at a hospital. The boy "dies", the girl may survive. Allegedly their parents were also killed. The boy is not shown to have any life-threatening injuries. The video reminds me of the first White Helmets videos from the Sarmin hospital, where the White Helmets murder children on camera.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2022 16:55 utc | 23

I don't know where Zelenskyy is, but I don't think he's going to risk his life in a war zone.

His photo ops look staged with flattering lighting and green screened backdrops.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | May 29 2022 16:58 utc | 24

@ Tom Huck | May 29 2022 15:55 utc | 9:

Thanks for pointing this out. All too often -- and a couple of times on this site too -- otherwise sensible people make the assumption that if there's an anti-government protest that isn't in Russia, it's necessarily fomented by the CIA/NED/SoS etc. I haven't seen a shred of evidence suggesting that either the Thaksin red-shirts or the Future Forward/Move Forward youngsters are stalking horses for American imperialism.

That much said, the thugs running Thailand know how to play both sides of the Sino-American rivalry. And why shouldn't we expect them to cozy up to China too? After all, China is in the neighborhood and most of the Thai ruling elite is ethnically Chinese; even the royal family has Chinese blood. And Thailand has a long tradition of playing enemies off against each other, and with more than a little success besides.

Posted by: malenkov | May 29 2022 17:02 utc | 25

NY Yella Cake -100: May 29, 1922

Soviet Officially Exhibits Proofs of it as Argument for Nee of Aid.
French Writer Cites Photographs Showing Bodies of Victims Partly Consumed.
The Cheka Has Convicted Many Offenders by Means of Incriminating Photographs
The full story of how this gruesome exhibition came to be made and all that it contains is told today in the Journal by Paul Erio, a French journalist of repute and former war correspondent, who in a messaged dated Moscow, May 14, writes:
"The Bolshevist papers constantly report scenes of cannibalism. It was through them that I learned that in a restaurant opened at Pongstcher, in the Provice of Samara, the only food served was human flesh. I personally cross-examined a nurse who in a village entered a house and found five people seated around a pot containing pieces of boile human flesh. They were eating a little girl and admitted this without hesitation. Fifty other cases of horrible, stupefying cannibalism were certified by me by people who have been living for several months in the famine districts. I will not repeat them, firstly, because of their horror; secondly because I should probably not convince anybody."

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 17:12 utc | 26

james | May 29 2022 16:40 utc | 19

Kind of snarky either way wasn't it?

Posted by: David G Horsman | May 29 2022 17:14 utc | 27

Taira/Yulia is the only blonde babe they got. She shows up on innumerable feeds.

Azov seems to be mostly gay. No babes hanging around. Give those guys a casting director and a production budget.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 29 2022 17:19 utc | 28

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 29 2022 16:30 utc | 16

I heard that story about a month ago, without the identifying details.
I heard that a car was stopped at a checkpoint and the Russians noticed the children in the backseat crying and took them aside to ask why. They said that the couple driving the car had murdered their parents and stole the car with the children in it as shields.
The Russians arrested the couple, so I doubt it was the woman you mention, because this was weeks ago.

Yulia Paevskaya / Tyra was arrested or captured on March 19. The story of the fake couple appeared at about the same time.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2022 17:20 utc | 29

@njet #15
The purpose of having fortifications is so that the number of troops needed to defend what you already have, can be reduced.
Castles weren't built to attack - they were built so that a small number of defenders could stand off huge armies. Battlefield fortifications are for the same function.

Posted by: c1ue | May 29 2022 17:23 utc | 30

@malenkov | May 29 2022 17:02 utc | 25

Thailand is the only nation in SE Asia that has never been colonized, it is a proud history. Outsiders may criticize the various governments, but often such criticism is founded in the country being independent and difficult to control from outside. Taking control of NGOs is a good thing IMHO. The other side of the coin relative to what was previously mentioned is the Shinawatra clan that was ousted in 2014 (Thaksin, Yingluck). It is not a black and white image, but life goes on in Thailand. They know the importance of taking a balanced position in international relations.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 29 2022 17:27 utc | 31

James - on Patrick Armstrong. Checked back and he wrote this eight years ago: -

"As I wrote in 2014 “In short, the West broke Ukraine, it now owns it. Or, to put it more precisely, it owns that part that Moscow doesn’t want. And what part that is is entirely up to Moscow to choose“. Moscow is choosing now.

Another reason why the Ukrainians urgently need peace right now. Once the Russians have taken an area they can't leave it. As has already been seen, that would expose the ethnic or pro-Russians in the area to reprisals for "collaborating".

Armstrong also looks at the reasons for the Russian invasion. Pre-emptive:-

"Definite proof has not yet surfaced but the fact that the bulk of the Ukraine Armed Forces were positioned to attack LDNR rather than to defend Ukraine’s borders is suggestive. Observing this, Moscow evidently decided on a pre-emptive strike. Putin has mentioned this as a factor."

Baud also mentions the dramatic increase in shelling across the LoC. Factor that in and it's difficult to see what else the Russians could have done. Finkelstein poses the same question - "What else could they have done?"

At the moment this entire subject, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, is dynamite. Sort of thing that could split up friendships particularly, I find, in Germany. But as the dust settles I think the outlines will become clearer. We put the Russians in a position in which they could do no other than they did. Armstrong agaim -

"It is now evident that the “ultimatum” was a last chance: had Washington, the actual power behind the scenes, seriously addressed Moscow’s concerns – NATO membership for Ukraine and forcing Kiev to follow the Minsk Agreements – there would be no war today."

My belief is that the Russian attack was provoked in the belief that the subsequent sanctions would deliver the coup de grace. The failure of those sanctions has now left Washington and Brussels out on a limb they're going to have the greatest difficulty climbing down from.

Posted by: English Outsider | May 29 2022 17:31 utc | 32

Posted by: njet | May 29 2022 16:28 utc | 15

They can already win methodically this way but yes Russian military communities does wonder the same idea why they haven't committed more to end the conflicts more quickly and spare themselves the attrition from dragged out battle.

Posted by: Lucci | May 29 2022 17:46 utc | 33

I searched for Yulia Paevskaya / Юлия Паевская in Russian. Here are some stories from March. The stories seem to disagree on who or what killed the children's parents.

What was found in the phone of a nationalist captive in Mariupol

Yulia Paevskaya in Ukraine is a well-known, promoted character. She is almost a symbol of the ATO. A lot of propaganda "documentary" was filmed about her, and even in Ukrainian feature films she played herself. In 2014, during the Euromaidan, the designer and aikido trainer Paevskaya retrained as a nurse. Then she volunteered for the ATO zone. There, according to the official version, she took out the wounded and killed punishers from the front line. For special merits in the ATO zone, she received the title of People's Hero of Ukraine.

Now the star of the extremists from the banned "Azov" was detained while trying to escape from Mariupol. Trying to leave the city, Yulia Paevskaya covered herself with other people's children, whose parents were killed.

As a medic Yulia would have had access to children, whose parents were killed in shelling. This blog post however accuses the Azovites of murder. This may be an unfounded rumor.

What secrets of the Ukrainian Nazis will the female beast reveal?

Blogs have already leaked information that some Azov militants are trying to slip through checkpoints in Mariupol using small children whose parents were killed by them. And surely someone managed to jump out like that.

But Yulia Paevskaya, a militant nicknamed "Taira", a whole national hero of Ukraine, was not lucky. She was caught. And in what situation? Together with her driver, she killed the parents of a 5-year-old child, and then, posing as his parents, tried to escape. It didn't work out.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2022 17:55 utc | 34

….why they haven't committed more to end the conflicts more quickly and spare themselves the attrition from dragged out battle…..

Because the longer this Ukrainian conflict continues, the longer the sanctions continue, and the weaker NATO becomes.

Inflation hasn’t even started in NATO countries. Just wait until next February

Posted by: Exile | May 29 2022 17:56 utc | 35

Posted by: james | May 29 2022 16:49 utc | 21

It is easy to tell whether Ukrainian military is seriously committing ops in Kharkiv and is actually destroying serious RF allies resistance.

If they are actual victories they'll push into Izyum groupings where they are vital for the cauldron. So far not much commitments comes up to destroy or dislodge the units taking up position in Izyum.

Posted by: Lucci | May 29 2022 17:57 utc | 36

If you take the facts that the US/UK trained Ukraine forces built extensive defensive positions and then started bombing the Donbas, their intent was to provoke Russia into invading. The strategy was to crush Russia in a drawn-out war, militarily and economically.

Both of failed terribly, with no Plan B.

Posted by: Douglas Houck | May 29 2022 18:00 utc | 37

@ David G Horsman | May 29 2022 17:14 utc | 27

yes! but i am much too polite on the internut to say so!

@ English Outsider | May 29 2022 17:31 utc | 32

i think you have it exactly right eo.... and the quote from patrick armstrong near the bottom is bang on... thanks for articulating all that... of course this is the exact opposite viewpoint that the msm is pushing 24-7... fortunately not everyone is fooled...

Posted by: james | May 29 2022 18:01 utc | 38

No disrespect intended but if this is the calibre of troops Ukraine is reduced to it is just a question of when and not if the UAF frontline collapses.

Anton Gerashchenko
May 26
Volodymyr Rashchuk has been a performer for 16 years, worked in theater, and now he serves as a commander of the National Guard platoon in #Severodonetsk. His call sign is Artist.

Volodymyr doesn't play the role of a hero - he became a hero and an example for his fighters.

Posted by: Down South | May 29 2022 18:02 utc | 39

@ Lucci | May 29 2022 17:57 utc | 36

thanks lucci.. that is why i maintain this kharkiv op is a distraction and not the main event... if ukraine wants to claim a win over on this appetizer, when the main entree is happening elsewhere - well, who really cares... i think the idea is to prolong the agony of ukrainian people, and extend the money loans via the sale of weapons and etc etc to ukraine... in other words - it all works for the west evil empire priorities and against the people of ukraine..

Posted by: james | May 29 2022 18:05 utc | 40

@19 I'm not American (though I do have a Green Card). Mixed French/Scottish. Grew up in the UK. Live mostly in Spain and Central America. Offspring in various places.

Posted by: dh | May 29 2022 18:06 utc | 41

🇷🇺🇬🇧Russian Ambassador Andrey Kelin in an interview with the BBC
None of our leaders, neither the president nor anyone else has ever said that we would like to seize Kiev. I do not believe that it is possible to capture or occupy Kiev. It's a big city.

Posted by: Down South | May 29 2022 18:09 utc | 42


She was captured at 21 of March 2022,and she is still investigated...
The mainstream media showed her as a ''volunteer paramedic''
We will see what more will come about this ''volunteer paramedic''

However, the children who were with her said that this Nazi shot their parents and threatened to kill them.
Now she is waiting for his harsh sentence
Show this thread

A runaway Nazi tried to pretend to be a mother of two children
Yulia Paevskaya (call sign Tyra) was caught when she tried to escape from Azovstal in a medical service car. She claimed to be a mother of two children and injured.

Posted by: Down South | May 29 2022 18:15 utc | 43

Seems like Junky Ze visited today Kharkiv. Russian SMO experts look dumbfounded letting this happen same like with nonstop influx of heavy weapons and merc. Mossad or CIA would ve taken out Ze already or at least today with a drone strike. Whats wrong with the FSB? Mossad and CIA taking out every month Iranian key people. SBU taking out traitors and regime critical candidates on daily base. And the Russians? totally incomprehensible. The argument well guarded and shielded. is not convincing at all. OK OK I ve learned Russians re not taking out people or carpet bombing areas rather trying sitting in a circle after breakfast and this encourages Ukraines the feeling of being part of a Russian family.

Posted by: Raute | May 29 2022 18:26 utc | 44

….why they haven't committed more to end the conflicts more quickly and spare themselves the attrition from dragged out battle…..

Because the longer this Ukrainian conflict continues, the longer the sanctions continue, and the weaker NATO becomes.

Inflation hasn’t even started in NATO countries. Just wait until next February

Posted by: Exile | May 29 2022 17:56 utc | 35

This is a key point. Many of us have grocked this but still when considering the tactics and events in the kinetic military operation on the ground the mind naturally wants to regard Ukraine as the only terrain in question and the goal of the operation to take X or Y territory etc.

The larger and more important terrain is global geopolitical balance of power with the kinetic Ukraine campaign being a key fulcrum point in leveraging an historic shift which will determine the future of billions for centuries to come. It is key because of where it is - the boundary between the West and the emerging Eurasian civilization - but also because it involves an overt struggle between the two sides which in so doing is revealing to the wider both that such sides exist in mutual opposition and also their respective characters.

This is more revelatory than the WW II situation because in that conflict the mix of alliances was more patchwork. Here we seem to have a rather clear geographical expression of the geopolitical alliances with geography exerting considerable influence on those not quite committed (like various African, Arab and Latin American States, India and later possible South Korea and Japan).

Interesting times...

Posted by: Scorpion | May 29 2022 18:28 utc | 45

@ Norwegian | May 29 2022 17:27 utc | 31: agree 100%.

Posted by: malenkov | May 29 2022 18:32 utc | 46

The US system seems usually to claim victory until reality slips out of MSM control, demand a 'big push', then pull out in a panic with as much asset-stripping as possible. In Vietnam they had daily body counts of dead Viet Cong right up until the night-time evacuation from Saigon. Afghanistan similarly. US allies are always thrown under the bus. In Ukraine, I suspect the MLRS and howitzers are the 'big push' but won't affect outcomes - their purpose is to prove US sincerity, not win a war. For the US, the outcome now is arguably irrelevant. US has massively changed European power alignment and economic propsects in its favour for years if not decades.

Posted by: T Paine | May 29 2022 18:36 utc | 47

re 47, economic propsects should be "prospects"

Posted by: T Paine | May 29 2022 18:39 utc | 48

not quite committed (like various African, Arab and Latin American States, India and later possible South Korea and Japan)
Posted by: Scorpion | May 29 2022 18:28 utc | 45

soooo am I to understand, as long as imperial colonies aren't involved in combat and resource extraction, WWIII is "contained"?

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 18:42 utc | 49

T Paine @ 47

"US allies are always thrown under the bus."

Very true. Remember the Shi'ite uprising in Iraq following the first Gulf War. They weren't exactly allies, but we left them out to dry/die. Read Hudson's Super Imperialism to see how the US treated our allies economically after WW1/WW2. Think about how the US treated its soldiers of color after GI Bill for you.

Everything is just a means to an end...

Posted by: Objective Observer | May 29 2022 18:55 utc | 50

Cowering in their bunkers and living off one potato a day is the stark reality for the Ukrainian forces, many have had enough and are fleeing for their lives, and who could blame them.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 29 2022 18:56 utc | 51

Past is Prologue, pp 86-87 w/o 29 May

Appendix VII to the report stated that Britain’s cumulative import surplus over exports and re-exports was £618,000,000 by August, 1940—which jibed with the figures given to Morgenthau by the British Embassy. More forbidding was that this drain continued to rise from £40 to £60 million per month. The memorandum’s conclusions betrayed the persistent belief among State Department officials that Britain was holding back some kind of financial reserve. While predicting the British would ask for credits as soon as the American elections were decided, the sale of Britain’s gold, securities, and direct investments—particularly those in South America—received equal emphasis.83 In spite of the deepening financial crisis, the upcoming election restrained the British from publicly requesting credits. In a speech written by Lothian and delivered by Sir Walter Layton in Boston on October 17, there were no references to money, but privately, Lothian told Morgenthau that Sir Frederick Phillips would like to make another trip to America in order to “raise the red light signal in connection with our finances.” 84 Although Roosevelt continued to express a desire to see Britain liquidate her Latin-American investments, and Morgenthau seemed primarily concerned with the slowness of British sales of direct investment held in the United States, there could be no doubt that Phillips was not coming to discuss those matters. Ten days earlier he had cabled Morgenthau that he was highly doubtful that such sales would provide any meaningful amount of dollars, and the Secretary admitted that the time had passed when Britain could make the most of such procedures. Extensive credits were on the Englishman’s mind, and everyone knew it. Roosevelt and Morgenthau were ready to talk to Phillips but told him to wait until after the election. Morgenthau made his position clear in a meeting with his staff when he said that he “would never be part and parcel of lending them money again, and if we got to the place where they couldn’t pay, I would recommend that we give it to them.”

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 18:59 utc | 52

This is not particularly important but perhaps a little bit interesting if part of a greater trend.

Purely anecdotal from a medium-small European city but outside of the media the public interest in anything related to Ukraine seems to have dropped during the last two weeks or so. Perhaps from minimal to zero?

I haven't seen all that many private displays of support to begin with (although their existence was unusual by itself) but now there seems to be even less as at least some of them have been removed.

I'm guessing the few rare and obviously publicly funded displays that I've seen will also disappear soon enough.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 29 2022 19:00 utc | 53

Poland supplies Ukraine with 18 Krab Howitzers.

"Krab howitzers have been in service with the Polish Army for several years. The tracked chassis is produced under a South Korean license, and the 155-millimeter gun is a modification of the British gun. The maximum firing range of the standard ammunition is 40 kilometers, the rate of fire is six rounds per minute."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 29 2022 19:02 utc | 54


Headlines of one and the same British journo.

It could had been funny, is not so predictable and repetitive.

Posted by: Arioch | May 29 2022 19:05 utc | 55

Shi'ite uprising in Iraq following the first Gulf War. They weren't exactly allies, but we left them out to dry/die.
Posted by: Objective Observer | May 29 2022 18:55 utc | 50

Shi'a Iraq were not at all US allies. US/KSA pushed "de-bathified" Sunni minority into the Coalition-fashioned government, and Muqtada al-Sadr leveraged his bully "pulpit" to mobilize the Mahdi Army of resistance from Shi'a majority .

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 19:09 utc | 56

@njet | May 29 2022 16:28 utc | 15

My take is that the Russian objective of demilitarization is what we see in the Donbass. The Russians wish to destroy/degrade/capture the UAF military hardware and eliminate the combat effectiveness of the UAF. The defensive line was to prevent the separatist republics from having the possibility of regaining their lost territory and as strong points from which the attacks were carried out over the past 8 years. It was probably also intended to serve its current purpose in case Russia should ever try to assist the republics in that effort of reclaiming their territory. It also provides a secure area from which to move out on an offensive operation.

A complete demilitarization would likely need to involve the surrender of the UAF, but even when the east army is defeated/withdraws to the west Ukraine still has significant forces protecting major cities. I don't know what the plan is once the Donbass is secured - although taking Odessa is a guess.

As for the sanctions and their effect on Europe - no matter what happens in Ukraine with the SMO the sanctions will not be lifted unless/until Europe has a change of heart. There is no longer a link between the SMO and sanctions. Russia will not give back control of the territory it has taken to the current Ukrainian government. Whether they stop the operation after defeating the east army or if they continue to the west will make no difference to the larger political battle with Europe and the US.

Ukraine is having currently difficulty finding trained recruits, reportedly moral is bad among their soldiers, and Russia and the DPR?LPR have captured many thousands of soldiers. How long will they be able to mobilize effective resistance? I am guessing we will find out.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 29 2022 19:14 utc | 57

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | May 29 2022 15:14 utc | 4

I don’t have any links for you, but a common complaint is that the battery is dead so it’s useless. The other issue being that they’re not necessarily designed for one to destroy a tank. Actually killing a tank might take coordination between several SFATWs. A less armored personnel carrier is probably a better target.

In the hands of a large scale insurgency, they’d be a potent weapon against soft targets and military convoys. They’re likely an excellent weapon for urban combat. But even if the Ukrainians weren’t getting expired weapons with dead batteries, the way Russia is handling the fortified positions makes javelins et al less useful. They aren’t going to provide counter battery fire against artillery. The US equipped and trained the Ukrainians for a light infantry war and/or an Iraq style, large scale insurgency. The Ukrainians got an artillery conflict.

Posted by: Lex | May 29 2022 19:15 utc | 58

Brookings | Muqtada al-Sadr’s problematic victory and the future of Iraq, 2021

Muqtada al-Sadr’s victory is an example of strategic acumen within a movement that continues its transition from insurgency to government, propelled by a yearning for respite and leadership, and by rampant destitution within Iraqi society....

Reuters | In Iraq, an old U.S. foe grows his political power, 2021

The political movement of nationalist Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has quietly come to dominate the apparatus of the Iraqi state. This could pose problems for the United States and Iran [because of US "Enduring Freedom" wars]. ...

LSE | Muqtada al-Sadr’s Evolving Post-Election Strategy and the Battle for Iraq’s Political System, 2022
The first stage of the ruling elite’s response to Iraq’s national election results, from October 2021 to April 2022, represents the most sustained challenge to the post-2003 political system in over a decade. The initial reaction of the Iranian aligned Shi’a Islamist parties grouped in the Coordination Framework ranged from the use of violence to signal their outright rejection of the election results to their current strategy of demanding another government of national unity based on the norms of Muhasasa Ta’ifia to defend the status quo that they greatly benefit from....

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 19:24 utc | 59

I am not convinced that Kiev is not on the menu. I have seen so far battlegroups "Z", "V", and "O". Group "A" is still missing.

Posted by: TomD | May 29 2022 19:30 utc | 60

not quite committed (like various African, Arab and Latin American States, India and later possible South Korea and Japan)
Posted by: Scorpion | May 29 2022 18:28 utc | 45

soooo am I to understand, as long as imperial colonies aren't involved in combat and resource extraction, WWIII is "contained"?

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 18:42 utc | 49

Don't understand your point exactly, but presumably mine wasn't clear. What I meant was that the countries mentioned have been signalling interest in getting on board the Eurasian train even though some of them have had good relations with US axis up until now.

I don't know about WW III. I think we are in it already but it's waged asymmetrically for the most part. If we had a more conventional 'world war' would it involve armies from many different nations fighting in Ukraine or wherever? Probably it would be more like various nations will get bombed or suffer economically etc. Heck, I don't know. Looks like Taiwan zone might get kinetic - most likely with blockade maneuvers by various naval and air forces - but apart from that....

Posted by: Scorpion | May 29 2022 19:33 utc | 61

sln2002 @ 56

During the first Gulf War in Feb 1991, the first President Bush encouraged an uprising against Saddam Hussein by saying on two separate occasions that he wanted “the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside.” Leaflets were dropped around Iraq encouraging rebellion. Then the Kurds and Shi'a revolted.

The US stood on the side and watched as tens of thousands of Kurdish and Shi'a fighters were slaughtered by Saddam Hussein. Well, we did prevent Saddam from using jets, but he used helicopters and effectively destroyed resistance in Iraq until 2003.

Posted by: Objective Observer | May 29 2022 19:38 utc | 62

Somaliland is/was part of Northern Somalia.

"AfriCom Commander General Stephen Townsend has still not succeeded in stationing his troops on the African continent. They continue to be headquartered in Germany.

He therefore discreetly showed up in Somaliland on the sidelines of his official tour of Djibouti, Somalia and Kenya. Washington’s objective would be to offer international recognition to the Somaliland authorities in exchange for their acceptance of a US military base on their soil. ‎"

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 29 2022 19:42 utc | 63

"...time for talking is over. The Russians need to attack the Command and Control Center in Kiev, finish the job in Donbass, and slap a complete embargo on Europe on all Russian commodities."

Posted by: Hannibal | May 29 2022 20:00 utc | 64

So much to comment on but yet you have to get to the end of a page. Not complaining. The names forgotten.
Why do European/ USA leaders keep calling Russia? You are winning right?

Why does the West want Russia to talk to the Zionist Jew Nazi puppet? Is it because they are moving away from Zion USA or is it because, the reality in now becoming apparent and actually the boss is trying to find a way out of their mess?
To raute: why would Russia take out zelinsky, and leave the rest of the thugs in place? Someday soon he will run and hide and the people (mossad, CIA etc.) Will kill him.

Russia has no interest in killing zelenski, for he is the hero clown of the west, falling flat on his face. They will make sure he never opens his mouth.

Posted by: Karl luck | May 29 2022 20:02 utc | 65

Somaliland was a British Colony. Its armed force was known as The Somaliland Scouts.
There was a time when Hergeisa, the capital, gave its name to a species of donkey famous for its hardiness. So famous that the SAS, then based in Bahrain, imported Hergeisa donkeys and sent patrols into the desert with donkeys to carry their packs. The SAS men returned to base carrying their own packs. And the donkeys too.

Posted by: bevin | May 29 2022 20:02 utc | 66

Raute | May 29 2022 18:26 utc | 44

Why would Russia want Zelensky dead? There would be a tidal wall of hate with probable NATO action.

Much more likely is the CIA topping him when he has reached the end of his usefulness in a way that pins it on the Russians.

Posted by: JohninMK | May 29 2022 20:08 utc | 67

Devilish news, better than Novichok, better than the "M" of james Bond. I knew you would want to know about this as soon as possible.....

new batch of hard drugs was brought to Ukraine, the whole Rada went crazy. Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Human Rights Lyudmila Denisova said that the Russians have a special drug "M", after the introduction of which Ukrainian prisoners of war lose their memory, and then, under the influence of hypnosis, they are forced to apologize and sing the Russian anthem".

Source repost; "Spriteer".

Posted by: Stonebird | May 29 2022 20:27 utc | 68

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 17:12 utc | 26

Funny, I'm technically 86'd from this blog for a joke cannibal cookbook on December 28th, 2021. I can't use my identity or refer to my blog. I'm just saluting the double standard of the ingrown head making the decision.

Posted by: Berndt Braincell | May 29 2022 20:30 utc | 69

JohninMK | May 29 2022 20:08 utc | 67

I suspect Russia could do whatever it pleased in Ukraine and US would do nothing. Lavrov bluntly stated Russia does not do regime change. Rather than subjugated Ukraine, I believe Russia is aiming for a changed Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 20:31 utc | 70

Posted by: njet | May 29 2022 16:28 utc | 15

Helicopters and planes are flying but helicopters in particular are exposed to shoulder fired surface to air missiles and those are capable of bringing them down. That's why you often see them drop flares to confuse infrared seekers.

The Ukies still have S300 and Buk system capable of bringing down planes.

"Pin point strike artillery" needs terminal guidance via laser designation. A forward deployed observer or drone keeps a laser on target that pulsates with a code the suitably equipped artillery shell picks up and homes in on.

Merely firing on GPS coordinates is not so precise and if the shell lands 30 feet from target it may not disable it.

These laser homing shells are not cheap. They have electronics on board which must survive the shock of being fired. One such shell was projected to cost 35000 USD (volume manufacturing) but now costs 800000 USD instead.

If its raining, foggy or smoky the laser guidance does not work so well.A WWI blanket fire still has its place.
You will find discussions on the internet.

Posted by: bottle | May 29 2022 20:44 utc | 71

countries mentioned have been [a] signalling interest in getting on board the Eurasian train even though [b} some of them have had good relations with US axis up until now.
posted by: Scorpion | May 29 2022 19:33 utc | 61

(a) You name 2 continents, a region of Arabic-speaking countries (Condi's 21st cen. "Greater Middle East" which may or may not include Anatolia), and 2 far-east asian nations, one of which was a colony of the other when WWII began. So, no, your statement is not clear, and leaves me with the distinct impression, habitual trade among and formal free trade agreements (FTAs) between these so-called emerging markets prior to the EEA and US "pivots" is news to you. Which is surprising, given how frequently these trading partners remind US-EU of strong, historical economic ties to RU through the proverbial C. Asian "Silk Road."

post-Edo, ASEAN (1967), APEC (1989), post-Mao GATT-WTO (2001), BRICS (2009), EEA (2014)

You mistake your signal of interest for theirs.

(b) "good relations with US axis"? Perhaps you meant US allies since 1945? In any case, you might be mistaking post-WWII wars for independence with US Command bases and complementary industry, if any, of which generate negligible export demand.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 20:45 utc | 72

During the first Gulf War in Feb 1991 [...] we did prevent Saddam from using jets, but he used helicopters and effectively destroyed resistance in Iraq until 2003.
Posted by: Objective Observer | May 29 2022 19:38 utc | 62

soooo defending Kuwait distracted Saddam's from deploying WMD to fulfill his genocidal project in Iraq? And that's why the Coalition of the Willing invaded Iraq? To liberate the Shi'a majority.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 20:53 utc | 73

Posted by: Berndt Braincell | May 29 2022 20:30 utc | 69

Did you ever read the one about the Germans eating Belgian babies?
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 20:57 utc | 74

Stonebird | May 29 2022 20:27 utc | 68

I am waiting to see which exotic poison the evil Putin will use on Zelensky.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 20:58 utc | 75

“US has massively changed European power alignment and economic propsects in its favour for years if not decades.”

Most here would agree with this statement as things currently stand. The problem is that the US miss calculated the level of West’s economy destruction. This is going to overtake all the projections and introduce many unknowns to how the World will continue to function. I predict many European countries will radically change their alignment once they experience drastic drop of GDP. Watch this space.

Posted by: Milos | May 29 2022 21:04 utc | 76

Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 20:58 utc | 75

Good point; Zelensky is now looking like a better option dead for the US than the RF.

Posted by: Peter | May 29 2022 21:04 utc | 77

Before there were incubators, there was "demonization", possession even.

The 'Rape of Belgium’ Revisited

wikiwtf includes notes this item in an article titled "atrocity propaganda", in which British genre gets its own article.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 21:06 utc | 78

Does Zelensky actually care about Eastern Ukraine, or is the war driven by Ukrainian desire to be rid of the Banderite Nazis and to gain fast-track entry to the EU and NATO, via union with Poland:

Goodbye Ukraine. Welcome back Greater Poland and Imperial Russia

Posted by: CanSpeccy | May 29 2022 21:11 utc | 79

The problem is that the US miss calculated the level of West’s economy destruction.
Posted by: Milos | May 29 2022 21:04 utc | 76

Has it? I for one did not assume that US and the "West" share the same goal. Does an apex predator sympathize with its prey? Nuland said ...

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 21:18 utc | 80

a comparison I just wrote of the Battle for Donbass to the Battle of Verdun in WWI:

Posted by: Ian Kummer | May 29 2022 21:19 utc | 81

Posted by: Peter | May 29 2022 21:04 utc | 77

I'm sure the US will be as protective of him as it has been of other erstwhile allies like Saddam, Noriega, the Kurds...

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 29 2022 21:21 utc | 82

sln2002 @ 73

I'm just providing facts to support YOUR point that the US can't be trusted to support actual allies or even those that we encourage to revolt without forming alliances.

We all know why the US invades countries, supports regime change, and foments war around the world - profit and power - no different in Iraq (both times), Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Ukraine, etc... no matter what the professed reasons may be.

Posted by: Objective Observer | May 29 2022 21:50 utc | 83


That is why I think Russia will not advance towards Odessa and will most likely pull its forces out of Kharkov oblast. Part of the negotiated settlement with the new government in Kiev will be that regions hold referendums.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 21:52 utc | 84

as to 3 and 4:

Stingers and Javilins have an expiration date because the propellant and explosives age (oxidize over time) the cases are purged with dry nitrogen to extend the life of the goods. Sending expired weapons is cynical age shows a desire to "hurt" russia no matter what the cost to ukraine IMO

Posted by: countrumford | May 29 2022 21:58 utc | 85

@41 Dh. Dino is that you? You disappeared from tweeter..

Posted by: Lozion | May 29 2022 22:03 utc | 86

[WARNING: LONG POST] This is a long one, but very important.

From an article recommended by Andrei Martyanov

From RT (in Russian, Google Translation)

"The tactics chosen are correct, but they do not provide for quick victories”: Colonel-General Georgy Shpak on the progress of the special operation
May 28, 2022, 11:56 Alexander Khokhlov

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that the creation of an operational command in the country in the southern - Ukrainian - direction provides for the
formation of an appropriate group of troops. What caused the strengthening of military security measures in a country allied with Russia, as well as the situation on the fronts in the Donbass, RT discussed with the former commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Georgy Shpak.

Q: Georgy Ivanovich, at a meeting in the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko said that the Southern Operational Direction would be created in the country's armed forces. The Belarusian president said, and I quote: “This is a wartime condition. But for now, no war." In your opinion, can this “for now” develop into the participation of a country allied with Russia in our special military operation in Ukraine?

A: I'm sure that won't happen. The creation of a group of troops on the Ukrainian border is a kind of protective measure for the Belarusians. The army of the Kyiv regime, controlled by Western military advisers, is capable of launching provocations against the Republic of Belarus. Lukashenka prudently puts up a barrier. Sabotage and reconnaissance groups of Ukrainians, as Alexander Grigoryevich previously reported, are already “running” in the border area. If reconnaissance is carried out, then it is impossible to exclude the beginning of some kind of hostilities. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are not capable of serious offensive operations in the northern direction, they clearly do not have enough forces for this, but they can shake their nerves. By the way, it is beneficial for us to strengthen the military grouping of Belarus: Kyiv will be afraid to withdraw its units from the north and transfer them to the east, to the Donbass.

Q: At the same time, exercises started in the west of Belarus. Mayor of border Brest Alexander Rogachuk said that this was due to the next stage of checking the response forces of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus. But the dynamics of the actions of the troops was impressive: the fighters of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) worked out a mock battle in urban conditions, and then crossed the Mukhavets River near the Brest checkpoint. Are they preparing to meet the Polish army?

A: The Poles under the national flag will not go either to Belarus or to Ukraine. Mercenaries, volunteers, volunteers, whatever you want to call them, can go to the Donbass, somewhere in the Lviv region or the Ternopil region, but not the servicemen of the Polish army. Poland is part of NATO, and one shot from NATO towards Russia is the beginning of the Third World War. Everyone understands this, and I think Warsaw received a very clear command from Washington: not to take initiative. America does not want to perish because of Ukraine or because of Poland. In a global nuclear war, which is exactly what World War III will inevitably become, there will be no winners.

As for the exercises in Belarus, these are standard military measures in response to the maneuvers of NATO troops passing on the other side of the border. The Western military bloc is now conducting them in whole series, one after the other. Alexander Lukashenko demonstrates that he keeps his gunpowder dry.

Q: Recently, at the collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu also announced the strengthening of groupings of troops in the western direction. According to him, by the end of 2022, 12 newly formed military units and subunits will enter the combat strength of the troops of the Western Military District. What is it motivated by?

A: An adequate reaction of the Russian political and military leadership to the expected entry into the North Atlantic Alliance of Finland and Sweden, as well as to the intensification of the maneuvers of NATO troops in Europe. Arrives with them - military power will increase in the west and in our country. And what is left for us to do?

Q: Taking into account the hostilities in Ukraine, will the Russian army have enough forces and resources to block all directions?

A: Enough. Smart people run the country and the army. There are reserves, they were created taking into account the most unfavorable development of the geopolitical situation. If an “extreme case” occurs, then Russia is capable of waging a full-scale war with a serious adversary for several years. Therefore, I read with undisguised pleasure all these regular statements repeated by Ukrainian propaganda that the Russians are running out of Caliber, there are no more tanks, there are not enough soldiers.

Look, we're not at war. A special military operation is underway, not all of our armed forces are participating in it, but only a part of them. Mobilization has not been announced. At the forefront - only military personnel under the contract and volunteers. Missiles and shells are enough and will be enough until the end of hostilities, no matter how long they last.

Q: And how long do you think they can continue in Ukraine?

A: Only they themselves know about the plans of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the Minister of Defense. I retired, I am not sitting in a dugout at the front, but at home, so I can only express my personal opinion. I study the map of Ukraine, analyze the information. I think it's not worth dreaming about an early victory. It will take time to defeat a well-trained and armed enemy, which is the Armed Forces of Ukraine today. Unless, of course, any cardinal political decisions are made.

Q: TV experts and couch analysts, meanwhile, are full of optimism: after the complete liberation of Mariupol, after the approach of the allied forces of Russia, the DPR and LPR to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, they tell us, a turning point occurred in the minds of Ukrainian soldiers, and now they will surrender en masse and surrender boundaries. Do you agree?

A: It has long been said: the farther from the front, the more heroes. There is no need to wait for quick military successes in Ukraine. At the first stage of the special operation, we learned a lesson: this country, perfectly prepared by the West for war and saturated with the poison of fascist ideology, cannot be taken in one fell swoop. America and Europe continue to supply arms and ammunition to Ukraine and will continue to do so. The West benefits from a long war, they still hope to exhaust and weaken Russia.

In addition, we must not forget that people like us are fighting against us: Slavs, Ukrainians and Russians. They have only turned their brains on one side over the past eight years, but they are as brave and steadfast as our soldiers. They have competent commanders. All the more honor to the Russian army and the Donbass militias who defeat such a strong enemy.

Q: Now we have completely finished with the underestimation of the enemy?

A: Yes. Correct conclusions have been drawn. Calmly, methodically, trying not to lose our soldiers and protect civilians, our army is moving forward. The tactics chosen are correct. But it does not provide for quick wins. The main problem is cities. It is already obvious that when conducting defensive operations in them, the enemy uses the tactics of the German fascists, which they used in the last century. Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupy the upper floors of high-rise buildings, and below they hold the civilian population, hiding behind them. Also, large industrial enterprises are turning into real fortresses. But we also switched to the method of urban combat during the Great Patriotic War: we operate as mobile assault groups with pinpoint support from tanks and artillery. Our guys have to destroy the enemy with jewelry, and there will be many more cities on the way of our troops, so this work will take a long time.

Q: Again, your personal opinion: where should our troops stop? At the borders of the people's republics of Donbass plus Kherson and part of the Zaporozhye region? Along the Dnieper? At the borders of Poland?

A: If at least one square meter of land remains under the rule of the current Kyiv regime, it will immediately be stuffed with weapons, and from there they will start shooting at Russia, at the Russians. This fascist stuff is like a cancer: it can spread further and further. It must be completely destroyed.

Q: And if in the western regions there will be a new surge of Bandera?

A: The Soviet Union did away with it, and Russia will also do away with it. We have nowhere to go. We are at war with fascism, and not only Ukrainian, not for life, but for death. Or we them, or they us. The truth is on our side. We will win, but we must muster courage and patience.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2022 22:08 utc | 87

I think, based on precisely what Putin has said each and every time as to the goals of the SMO, that the RF is very close to being able to declare mission accomplished - Donbass secure, denazified, a corridor or bridge between Crimea and Donbass - except for the never NATO position, which Zelinskey has already basically he would agree to. Now or very shortly the RF is in a position where each day that passes more of Ukraine may be lost forever, forcing the discussion. If this is true, it may be the RF does not move on to take Odessa, if before then the war can stop, Ukraine be made neutral, and an agreement established to secure Donbass and allow areas to vote as to where they want to be. Of course then Putin will say remove the sanctions. And, once the war is ended, it will be hard for the US and Europe to refuse. For the moment, Donbass will be secure, and Russia helping to start the rebuilding. But if Zelinskey and the West refuse to make an agreement, then the RF will move west to take Odessa. This then is the extreme price for Ukraine - peace now on Russia's terms to hold on to a Black Sea outlet, or the future loss of any port and maybe the entire country....

Posted by: Boomheist | May 29 2022 22:12 utc | 88

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 16:44 utc | 20
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a rare frontline visit to the city of Kharkiv"

Wonder if Gonzalo Lira said "Hi!" LOL

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2022 22:16 utc | 89

Replying to sin2002 #80, "I for one did not assume that US and the "West" share the same goal." That was my perception. There is little long-term commonality of interest between US and Europe. Most of what we see as a common front is simply fealty. Allies stay close to the king because it's safer than becoming a potential target (rather like Remora around a shark) and they feed on the US ability to cause widespread carnage. But the cost is genuine sovereignty and independence. Countries like UK no longer have their own foreign policy, the UK arguably not since Suez and very conspicuously not since Iraq.

Posted by: T Paine | May 29 2022 22:24 utc | 90

Same-old, same-old party line bullshit. Some people actually believe Lavrov. Hopefully he's lying and not that stupid.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2022 22:32 utc | 91

Comment from on all these various howitzers...

While Ukrainian propaganda revels in the enthusiasm for the French Caesar self-propelled guns, I will carefully remind you what problems the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to face when using NATO artillery systems.

The incompatibility of tactical communication: inside the machines of the system of one standard, in the Ukrainian army - another. As a result, the gunners coordinate the fire over cellular communications. And our intelligence is listening to her. What happens next - you understand.

20 thousand 155-mm shells lie on the border with Poland. It is impossible to bring them safely to the front; our aviation organizes a real hunt for convoys.

Czech "Danas" and French "Caesars" are waiting for the same fate as the American M777. There is nothing for the Ukrainian army to use corrected ammunition - satellite signals and readings in the area shoot down our EW troops, and as soon as the fire control system is turned on, attack aircraft fly to the positions of the artillerymen.

In general, there is a weapon, but it is impossible to use it for dozens of different reasons.


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2022 22:37 utc | 92

"Some people actually believe Lavrov. Hopefully he's lying and not that stupid."

You are a true nutcase Richard.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 22:45 utc | 93

Ukraine is shelling with the new western howitzers last few ours intensivly residential areas in Donetsk.
The civilians on the russian side are now paying the price for the fact that RF are not attacking supply lines from Poland and Slovakia. The borders are wide open and Russia is just watching how the deadly presents of "western partners" re transported to Donbass and other areas. The Motto of SMO is to save the lifes of the russian hating ukraine civilians but in return the fathers of all these valuable nazi civilians re targeting civilians with purpose to kill them.
Difficult to understand the russian logic. Pure Masochism

Posted by: Raute | May 29 2022 22:46 utc | 94


Thank you for your answers.
First of all I don't think Russia goes slowly because they want to hold the sanctions alive. They know well they will never get rid of them anyway.

BUT there is another point I agree to. Russia is fighting a war at at least THREE fronts:

First is the Ukraine front.
Second is the preparation for and deterrence of a world war.
Third is the build up of a new alternative economic and financial system, strong enough to withstand the UKUSA regime. This is the sanctions war (the forth war, part of this, is the communication war that aims to bring the states of the global south to the eurasian side).

Victory in Ukraine is important, but nothing more than ONE step to a geopolitical win. Three different dimensions of war, non of which mustn't be lost. Each war must be won to sustain against a total will of distinction. So Russia wants to demonstrate the western military it wins a war against its top equipped proxy army with a 10% exhaustion of its joint forces. Well, that is a message!

This is ONE difference to Verdun. A european war as a pawn only on a global chessboard.

In other words: They want to "bleed russia white".
May be the Russian slow and conservative warfare in Donbass sounds like:

Let's see who bleeds white whom?

Posted by: njet | May 29 2022 22:47 utc | 95

njet | May 29 2022 22:47 utc | 95

WWIII as full spectrum hybrid warfare.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 22:57 utc | 96

Re my post @84

I went to the Russian language foreign ministry site but the latest piece there was dated 27th. I guess the transcript will appear there in due time. On regions other than Donetsk and Luhansk, and the two regions now being integrated into Russia, a statement like that (other regions must decide their own fate/future) is something I have fully expected.
I was too lazy to retype without the caps. Just a copy and paste.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 23:07 utc | 97

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2022 22:08 utc | 87

Thank you Richard for this post. It answers two questions:

1) They will go to the polish border, and
2) it will take years. Not months, years.

Russia will bleed them white. Germany first.

Posted by: njet | May 29 2022 23:11 utc | 98

Russian technology... From a comment from Telegram channel...

The latest Russian anti-roof anti-tank mines PTKM-1R are used against Ukrainian armored vehicles.

A photograph of one of these mines was published by the Ukrainian security forces from the Kyiv region.

PTKM-1R, through the use of acoustic and seismic sensors, is capable of detecting a target at a distance of up to 250 meters. When a tank or armored vehicle is detected, the mine tilts slightly in the right direction. When the target is in the affected area, the submunition is launched. It takes off to a height of several tens of meters, rotates in flight, scans the area with the help of a radar and a thermal imager (reacts to the heat of the engine and its exhaust), aims at a target and fires a cumulative "shock core" at the roof of the tower.

The mine is set manually and can remain activated for up to 10 days. After the specified period, the mine can self-destruct so as not to pose a threat to the civilian population.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2022 23:14 utc | 99

Dmitry Orlov weighs in with some weighty observations.... these I find the most interesting for the present crisis in Ukraine, especially the second one here below.

we should note perhaps that once the $40+ billion giveaway to the Military-Complex and the ukrainian oligarchs passed the weak-kneed congress (with 100% support from the democrats in both Houses. So much for any so-called liberal or progressive anti-war sentiment in the USA), some of the major media in the and the UK as well have started to sing a slightly different tune about the grand delusions I mean hopes for the nato-supported neo-nazies in the Ukraine kicking Russia's ass. lmao!
The Secret American Plan to Make Russia Great Again

"....After the 2014 Kiev putsch and the re-accession of Crimea, US/Western sanctions were immensely helpful in helping jump-start a large-scale program of import replacement, rejuvenating both Russian industry and agriculture. Russia is now largely self-sufficient in food and a major food exporter. Its position as the world’s main breadbasket will be further improved by the addition of Eastern and Southern Ukrainian “black earth” regions of uniquely fertile land...."

".....The eight-year war waged by the Ukrainian army, with unquestioning US/NATO support, against the Russian civilian population in the Donbass, has produced a very specific understanding throughout Russia’s population: that the West wants to exterminate it. When the Ukrainians then declared that they want to build nuclear bombs, and when it was discovered that Pentagons bioweapons labs in the Ukraine were working on creating pathogens specifically targeting Russians, and when, finally, it became clear that it was not just the Ukrainians but all of NATO was behind it, that the Ukrainians-plus-NATO were poised to launch an all-out attack, Russia pre-empted it by launching its own Special Operation. Cynical as this may seem, the previous eight-year shelling of buildings full of old people, women and children, shown live on Russia’s nightly news but steadfastly ignored in the West, was instrumental in producing approval ratings for the Special Operation that has reached 76%, with similar ratings for Putin, his government and even many of the regional governments. Now that, Western arms shipments notwithstanding, the Ukrainian military is being whittled away at a rate that will finish it off in approximately 20 days (the calculated “Day Z”), Russia is poised to emerge as an outright victor in World War III which, just like the Cold War, which it had lost, was barely even fought. This will restore Russia’s military’s mystique of being perpetually victorious...."

Posted by: michaelj72 | May 29 2022 23:16 utc | 100

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