Ukraine Open Thread 2022-74
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.
Posted by b on May 26, 2022 at 12:49 UTC | Permalink
next page »The dam of lies and obscenities is breaking.
"British Bishop Richard Williamson about Putin:" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2chRognUbw
Posted by: Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
I'very watched Ursula von Looney's speech at Davos. She is not only on a state of serious delusion about all of this but she told monumental lies about the alleged wheat blockade. She has now become a serious liability and needs to go. You are right about their hatred of Russia leading them down a bad path which has led to blinday hysterical off the hoof decision making leading to the mess the collective West is now in. I say bravo to Victor Orban and all the other countries who have refused to become involved with this hatred. It seems to me the current PTB in Europe UK and USA could see the Unipolar Rules Based International Order as being their tickets to absolute power riches luxury whilst everyone else was enslaved. Well, I think the deep well of hatred against Russia is due to Putin's SCO on Ukraine has given the WEF a massive punch in the face.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 26 2022 13:18 utc | 3
dark path
Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 26 2022 12:55 utc | 1
That path ain't "dark" as just about every MoA correspondent has pointed out. It's a white, all day, every day, war for supremacy.
Posted by: sln2002 | May 26 2022 13:33 utc | 4
Modern trench warfare. Analyzing 7 videos from Ukraine War: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5l6LY0QShY
Posted by: Mikkael | May 26 2022 13:34 utc | 5
The first German to head the EEC Commission was Walter Hallstein 1958 - he was through and through a Nazi.
The final head of the EU is Ursula von der Leyen whose grandfather I am informed was a participant at Babi Yar.
When Toto pulled the curtain aside and showed just who the Wizard of Oz really was it was enlightening and frightening - thanks to Russia and China - we now have the curtain torn away to reveal the inner workings of "the West"
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 26 2022 13:37 utc | 6
The lockstep of the western MSM is astounding and the level of "compliance" on part of the citizens (at least in the USA where I dwell) is a bit disheartening to say the least. One thing of many I've noticed is that not only do folks not have access in their daily lives to any perspective other than the dominant narrative (see above) but they very often lack the capacity to process anything that deviates from it! Simply put: they have been conditioned, and part of that is immediate rejection of any alternate viewpoint.
Posted by: Chevrus | May 26 2022 13:42 utc | 7
Perhaps it helps discussing Ukraine (and lots of other things) to point out the fact the U$A are just another plutocracy now. And there are only two real foreign policy principles operative.
The first, an iron-clad opposition to socialism.
The second, no other capitalist nation or group of nations (the EU) will be permitted to challenge U$-led unipolarity.
Posted by: ChrisHerz | May 26 2022 13:49 utc | 8
The dam of lies and obscenities is breaking.
"British Bishop Richard Williamson about Putin:" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2chRognUbw
Posted by: Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
Williamson is probably not the ally Russia or Putin wishes for, exactly.
Posted by: veto | May 26 2022 13:55 utc | 9
Putin has simplified the acquisition of Russian citizenship for residents of Zaporozh(ia)(zhia)(ye) and Kherson regions, restored water and telecoms, UAH + RUB banking, dual passport, and a coupla hospitals. Meanwhile, Uncle Volody has issued an edict declaring any "Ukrainian" who avails of these accommodations a traitor.
Yet another "settler-colonial" success story? Or, no?
Posted by: sln2002 | May 26 2022 14:01 utc | 10
Captured Switchblade.
https://t.me/intelslava/30008
Posted by: Surferket | May 26 2022 14:12 utc | 11
@Mikkael #5
Re: modern trench warfare
Not clear to me at all.
I agree with the assertion that trenches protect against bullets.
What is not clear to me is that open air trenches protect against modern artillery: bomblets, thermobaric, artillery storms, CAS as well as combined arms assaults. The reason Western militaries dig one-man foxholes is precisely that a long, open air trench funnels blasts and napalm all along its depth. The so-called modern trenches the video producer touts are actually very basic.
World War 1 trenches, after the initial artillery bombardments, were liberally dotted with covered dugouts, doglegs and so forth for precisely this reason.
So no, can't say this video shows much credibility.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 14:17 utc | 12
Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
Was this video about Bishop Williamson made in Poland? At one point there is in cyrillic
"Polsha" indicating the location of the event. How do we know that this is not a fake news and that it was not electronically manufactured?
Posted by: fanto | May 26 2022 14:19 utc | 13
Scholz has seen the light. . and it's green . .but no allowance for Putin . .it's going to the MIC
. . .from DW
'Putin must not win this war,' Germany's Olaf Scholz tells Davos
"We cannot allow Putin to win this war," the German leader said on the final day of the World Economic Forum. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has dominated talks in Davos, Switzerland.
Scholz, who had been criticized for his initial hesitancy towards sending weapons to Ukraine, noted that Germany has now undergone a major shift in its defense policy.
"For the first time, Germany is supplying weapons to a war zone, including heavy weapons," he said, adding that €100 billion ($106 billion) would be made available to enhance Germany's defensive capabilities.
The chancellor also said that the war has increased pressure to meet climate change goals — especially in reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports from Russia.. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2022 14:43 utc | 14
re Don Bacon | May 26 2022 14:43 utc | 14
thanks for that one D.B.
well, I guess Russia is going to have to de-militarize and de-nazify germany all over again. After they get done with finland, sweden and the dumb poles and baltic big-mouths first, of course.
(P.S. fuck the rich bitches I mean the war-mongering whores of late Capitalism, at davos. ah, now that feels better)
Posted by: michaelj72 | May 26 2022 14:54 utc | 15
@Mikkael | May 26 2022 13:34 utc | 5
Modern trench warfare. Analyzing 7 videos from Ukraine War: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5l6LY0QShYHere is how the 'analysis' begins "At this point you are probably wondering why the war in Ukraine is dragging on for so long".
90 days is "so long"? The Russians have broken the largest army in Europe and captured an area equivalent to England + Wales. This guys isn't worth listening to.
And: He 'discovered' all these trenches that we have known were there the last ~8 years...
Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 16
@ Chevrus | May 26 2022 13:42 utc | 7
i share your well articulated viewpoint... thanks for saying all that...
here is a different analysis from someone inside russia.. i can't say i agree with it, but it made me think more... i agree with some of it..
Russia Needs to Get Serious About the War in Ukraine
Posted by: james | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 17
Over on the excellent Andrei Martyanov's blog he's discussing Russia's abandonment of the so-called Bologna education system. And he says this:
As Buzz Aldrin (I believe) said: in 1969 we thought that we would be flying to Mars in 2020, instead we have got Facebook. I may add B-737 Max, LCS and F-35.I might add Osprey helicopters, Zumwalt-class destroyers and nuclear submarines that collide with underwater Chinese mountains.
-Z-
Posted by: pasha | May 26 2022 15:02 utc | 18
Posted by: Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
Thanks very much, Cerena!
Posted by: juliania | May 26 2022 15:02 utc | 19
"At least, so far as we know, no fetuses were injured in that shooting in Uvalde. Praise the Lord."
Posted by: Duncan Idaho | May 26 2022 15:06 utc | 20
Is there anything to the almost meme-ic insistence that Russia has lost a horrendous lot of tanks ?
Posted by: Dale | May 26 2022 15:06 utc | 21
Ukraine is a continuation of age-old processes; only the details differ
2 diametrical world views
American System 1776-1945
UK Imperialism 1066-today
https://archive.org/details/cu31924030185056
FDR vs Churchill
https://archive.org/details/ashesawit00roos
Stage-IV reinfection of USA by UK ?
Kissinger/NeoCon Paranoia & Treason
https://findit.library.yale.edu/catalog/digcoll:558482
hubris masquerading as "moderation"
is the American System really dead?
maybe in the USA, unless we jettison the British upper class, but it's resurrection is inevitable;
evolution has proceeded nonstop on planet Earth for 4.5 Billion yrs ... nothing has stopped it yet
Posted by: Roger Erickson | May 26 2022 15:07 utc | 22
This here is - despite the dutybound "condemnation of Russian aggression" at the end a sober analysis
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/is-america-the-real-victim-of-anti-russia-sanctions
It points out very clearly how the real balance of power looks in the world today. It contrasts a lot from trotskyite crap like cited in https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-propaganda-bbc-tries-to-sell-telegram-rumors-that-make-no-sense.html Gerrard White | May 25 2022 16:38 utc | 10 . Self appointed "Marxists" who do not even understand what GDP is and what not. Arnaud Bertrand provides a more "sober view".
That said, it is not that Russia does not have her problems, the internal traitors from the "elite" in particular.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 15:08 utc | 23
@14 Sounds like Olaf is still not happy with the Versailles Treaty. Looking for some Lebensraum is he?
Posted by: dh | May 26 2022 15:15 utc | 24
Article on Forbes from an Indian perspective on the Anti Russia sanctions
not much of it would be news to people commenting here but reality may start to reach the narrative mongers in the West
key point is "For leading developing countries such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa, protecting their freedom to trade with a commodity superpower such as Russia is as important as ensuring that they do not become the next victims of a globalizing West wielding its dominance in international financial institutions. While bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington DC push their wishful renewable energy dreams, the rest of the world has to get on with the ordinary business of making ends meet."
Posted by: Aslangeo | May 26 2022 15:22 utc | 25
Dale, 21:
> Is there anything to the almost meme-ic insistence that Russia has lost a horrendous lot of tanks ?
The insisters got it wrong, Russia has spent many tanks of fuel ...
Posted by: Mr Y | May 26 2022 15:32 utc | 26
Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 26 2022 12:55 utc | 1
Russians have tended to be on the side of the world's oppressed.
Compare and contrast:
https://www.africanglobe.net/africa/america-supported-white-apartheid-south-africa/
Posted by: Seer | May 26 2022 15:43 utc | 27
From RT, Imran Khan issues ultimatum in Pakistan. This can get ugly.
Ousted Pakistan’s PM issues ultimatum
Imran Khan has warned the government he will march with millions into the capital unless elections are held in six days.
Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan warned the country’s government on Thursday that he will march on the capital with millions of people in six days unless provincial assemblies are dissolved and new elections are held by that time.
Khan issued the ultimatum during a rally of thousands of demonstrators in Islamabad, where he called for the “imported government” to be brought down, insisting it is backed by foreign powers.
A former cricket star-turned-politician, Khan served as Pakistan’s prime minister for over three and a half years before being ousted in a no-confidence vote by parliament last month. He insists that his removal from office was orchestrated by the US in collusion with members of the current government headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Khan has suggested that he received threats from US officials over his refusal to bow to Washington’s demands and support the sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine.
(my emphasis)
Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 15:43 utc | 28
Aslangeo | May 26 2022 15:22 utc | 25.
Many thanks for that link to the Forbes article. Really illuminating. I don't think anything like enough attention has been paid to the economic war. This is the one that can decisively defeat the globalists presently running the western regimes. Russia is winning this hands down - arguably even more decisively than the military campaign. We know that western governments did not even consult their central banks and business leaders before slapping on the sanctions against Russia. As the article points out these have boomeranged even more spectacularly than predicted by critics at the start. The West is now as isolated economically as the Ukrainian cauldrons in Donbass, as most of the rest of the world ignores their "rules based order" sanctions order. Meanwhile, their own people endure blows to their welfare worse than anything since the 1940s - and far worse than Putin's Russians. As it becomes clearer how appallingly the regimes have miscalculated, we can expect more and more dissension in the ranks as those who can seek to disassociate themselves from the failure. All the signs are that the regimes will simply try to blank out the news and move on to the next contrived "pandemic". They must not be allowed to get away with it.
Posted by: ManintheMoon | May 26 2022 15:45 utc | 30
May I just point out the blatantly obvious, which is, although its 'un woke' to point it out, that if the USSR hadn't been undermined and overthrown, and capitalism hadn't been restored, then none of the people who died in the Nato invasion of Yugoslavia would have died, none of the people who died in the 'little wars' of the 21st century on the Russian borders would have died, and none of the people currently dying in the Ukraine would have died.
Am I saying that the world would now be a better place if the USSR had not fallen?
Yes.
Posted by: Hidari | May 26 2022 15:57 utc | 31
@ ManintheMoon | May 26 2022 15:45 utc | 30 - "rules based order"
speaking of passing off its domestic notions as international rules.............
Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Defense.
"The United States should stop passing off its domestic notions as international rules, the pursuit of [goals] of American hegemony is also a mistake, we urge them to objectively consider and accept China's peaceful development. This will benefit China-US relations, as well as global peace and stability," he said
of course the same could be said for russia as well, but as chas freeman so succinctly put it - ''fighting russia down to the last ukrainian'' is in the usa's and not ukraines best interests....
Posted by: james | May 26 2022 16:01 utc | 32
“Something could happen” with the oil pipeline running to Hungary, a Ukrainian official has warned...
Fings break, dunnay?
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x75bt6
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 26 2022 16:06 utc | 33
re: trench video
That defense has worked when all the elements combine: favorable geography (hill/river barriers), complex fortifications, regular trenches, plentiful bodies for cannon fodder, cover via forests, and nearby urban area with human shields (and "ideological" units to keep them from leaving), and also hiding places prob. also with the human shields, for the rockets/arty, air defense, and reserve of higher quality troops with tanks and btr's and whatnot.
lose the geography (eg hill or valley or river crossing) and it is vulnerable. lose the town center (human shields) and it is vulnerable. lose the mobile units and it is vulnerable. lose the counter artillery and it is vulnerable. lose the air defense and it is vulnerable.
what might be happening, least bad for UA, is if they recognize that their prewar-LOC defense line can be methodically broken, which I think is recognized now, except not politically. It follows to rotate out the high quality VSU troops, and leave the cannon fodder behind to slow down RF movement. Clearly they are still holding out for time to train more numbers of competent forces, receive maybe more capable weapons from UA - though the net rate is clearly a decrease in quantity.
Without (despite endless calls to do it!) shutting down UA national transport infrastructure, the whole conflict is in kindof an attritional mode, though a lopsided one.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:07 utc | 34
. . .from Kyiv Post
British Defense Intelligence Update, May 26, 2022 . .here
hint: don't expect much intelligence from British Intelligence
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2022 16:12 utc | 36
re: trench video
and to emphasize, short if an Azovstal level of fortification, there needs to be something to prevent bombardment with rocket barrage - ie inhabited area for human shields. Trench network on a treeline in an agricultural area is a speedbump, not a barrier.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:15 utc | 37
@ ptb 37
Trench network on a treeline in an agricultural area is a speedbump, not a barrier.
Trenches provide protection from artillery and also protected firing points, anti-tank etc. Of course the trenches must have covering fire from other positions.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2022 16:22 utc | 38
@Don Bacon | May 26 2022 16:22 utc | 38
Trenches protect from infantry gun fire, and from horizontal and flat angle artillery. They offer few protection from steep angle artillery such as mortars and howitzers, poor protection from MLRS salvos, and close to no protection from thermobaric missile barrages, due to heat as well as rarefaction.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 16:32 utc | 39
Several barflies noticed an historical threshhold YouTube crossed for us yesterday: blatant erasure of inconvenient historical events. This comment, from the thread underneath the ConsortiumNews story about it, sums up my own impression:
This is exactly like the scene in 1984 where Winston of the Ministry of Truth discovers a photograph in the archives showing three men that were supposed to be dead enemies that incriminates the Party and does his job by trying to memory hole it. YouTube is becoming the Memory Hole. Remember. Oceania has always been at war with Southeast Asia.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 26 2022 16:35 utc | 40
@ptb #34
Couple notes:
1) Shutting down all Ukraine transport = "Doing an Iraq" plus "Doing an Afghanistan" all at once.
"Doing an Iraq" is taking a society back to the pre-fossil fuel era - and since Russia is clearly expecting to take and keep a significant part of it (if not more), seems counterproductive. Everything Russia destroys is going to have to be rebuilt.
"Doing an Afghanistan" is killing enough civilians going about their civilian business that the entire countryside is inflamed because everybody has lost a sister, brother, parent, child, cousin, uncles/aunts etc to a missile from the sky. That didn't work in Afghanistan or Vietnam, why is it a good idea?
2) Training in the West. I have no doubt some of it is happening, but what I have yet to see any evidence of is whether this is being done with scale, and furthermore even if it is being done at scale - whether there are weapons.
Let's look at pre-2/24/2022: NATO had a training base, in Ukraine, that was pushing through 8000 soldiers a year (if I recall correctly). Now let's say this is magically being replicated, and even increased 5x, in 2 different locations: Germany and Poland. So that's 40Kx2 = 80K soldiers a year being trained. But the SMO is only 3 months old. Even if this training had begun literally in February, there would be at best 20K soldiers trained in 3 months - and that's assuming instantaneous training.
Ukraine is likely losing 500 soldiers a day = 45K lost in 3 months. So increasing pre-2/24/2022 training rates by 10x, and having magical instantaneous training, would still see Ukraine losing 25K soldiers every 3 months.
And this skips the gear problem. Poland is apparently angry because Germany isn't delivering replacement tanks to Poland fast enough - replacements for the Polish gear that apparently all went to Ukraine. Poland accusing Berlin of broken promises on tanks - politico.eu
How much gear do you need to equip 20K troops every 3 months from scratch? If Poland doesn't even have its own, where will it be found?
7K troops plus their gear is not a small footprint either. I have yet to see any evidence of this Ukrainian liberation force.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 16:38 utc | 41
Norwegian | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 16
There is a little more going on here. I have looked at the fortified zone on the old frontlines a few times and it is 10/20/30 km deep. The odd thing is that it is being attacked frontally rather than having the main effort coming from either end and wrapping around the ends of the fortified line. Reinforcement and resupply can constantly be brought in from the rear.
The only reason I can think of is to destroy the bulk of the Ukraine army in the old frontlines rather than spreading the destruction across a good part of eastern Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 16:41 utc | 42
@ James 17
I checked out the article and it’s definitely an interesting take. Rose colored lenses are to be avoided at all times, and just because Kiev has the biggest set does not mean that the RF is not in possession of their own. What I found notable is that the writer states that RF forces (generally) are hampered from moving about the countryside. Based on some of the recent offensive movements that would not seem to be the case but who knows. Another bit was the interpretation of the initial moves on Kiev as a failed attempt at some sort of shock and awe…. If I recall correctly there was a very long (20km?) column of vehicles idling outside Kiev for quite some time. If UAF forces wanted an easy target, that would have been it. But nothing happened to it as far as I know…. Filed under: If you coulda, ya woulda. It seems more like a feint in order to fix Ukrainian forces as they braced to defend the capitol.
In regard to commitment of forces, more would be better but leaving other areas deficient in the face of a wider conflict would be dangerous. As of today there are reports of an increase in air power, so who knows. I am admittedly a bit biased because I have been following the conflict for the past 8 years and am also not blind to the corruption and abuse Ukraine has endured in Uncle Sam’s vampire appendages. The other thing about the majority of western wonder weapons getting through and making a difference strikes me as a bit of an overstatement. How can the RF assets not know where and when? Spying could not be easier and they have had decades to network. If they are working out so well why would you need to pass a law that forbids criticizing them? By the same token why make the decree in writing that desertion or hesitation is met with shot in the back if things are going so well? Surely the many videos of UAF soldiers essentially complaining out of desperation for lack of supplies and leadership aren’t all fake?
Granted the USA and Friends can and very likely will continue to pour gas on the fire, but unless they are willing to intervene directly it will only do so much “good”. Add to that the European Foot-Shooting Society’s willingness to sacrifice it’s citizens living standards for the sake of destroying their own societies in the name of some great reset, and one has to wonder how long they can continue. But what do I know, I ain’t no general and the only armchair I own isn’t all that comfy so my dog sits in it….
Posted by: Chevrus | May 26 2022 16:49 utc | 43
@41 c1ue
Thanks for that response, those are important things.
The first point is especially fundamental, and I'm glad it is not happening in the style of Iraq or Yugoslavia or dozens of other examples. Still there are middle grounds, like knocking out rail, bridges, and motor fuel more aggressively than has been the case. A pattern I'm sure everyone noticed is that newly liberated places, if they have the good fortune to be taken intact, immediately become targets for bombardment by their former occupiers. Especially the points of transport infrastructure like mentioned.
To the second point... So far true. No fundamental reason that it must stay true, alas - hopefully the basic survival instinct in the reservist-eligible population kicks in sooner rather than later. This is actually starting to happen, per videos.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:53 utc | 44
c1ue | May 26 2022 14:17 utc | 12
What has been noticeable to me and also mentioned in that video is the great spread of strikes.
Without visual correction it takes many truckloads of shells just to land a few in the trenches.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 16:57 utc | 45
How many tons of unenriched plutonium does it take to make a nuclear bomb?
https://lyricsgenius.eu/iaea-reports-tons-of-plutonium-and-enriched-uranium-at-zaporozhye-npp.php
How exactly did UKR get so much nuclear material? It was not from the local reactors.
I do not understand why this is not a VERY big deal.
Posted by: ct | May 26 2022 16:59 utc | 46
Zelenski promissed to run Ukraine like Isrsel aftet the war. The enemy population will have to be put under military control, with militsry present permanently in malls, movie theatres, public spaces. Like in Israel , the “enemy population” are native Ukrainians and Russians, and the patriots are tge West Ukrainians — formerly from Poland and Austrihungary. They bravely defended Ukraine against Soviet Union. Never mind they did it for loyalty to Hitler, playing his rear guard, sllowing down Soviets from pursuing Hitler to Berlin.
As Berlin fell, those patriots could not wait to put themselves to the service of any Western Russiphobe. Estatic now, but not for long.
Posted by: Bianca | May 26 2022 17:04 utc | 47
@ ct - It was probably sitting around in some warehouse, forgotten with the demise of the Soviet Union. I happened in Kazakhstan.
Here's a link to Project Sapphire from NSA Archive.
Posted by: lex talionis | May 26 2022 17:06 utc | 48
Since the start of this operation, DPR forces have been trying to circle Avdivka. 3 months to push forwards just a few k's.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1B1PLMhbHmG1aJ2-QNxHY1TksI6HlNhqF&ll=48.133567510999434%2C37.76358981238908&z=12
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 17:20 utc | 49
@c1ue | May 26 2022 16:38 utc | 41 c1ue
..How much gear do you need to equip 20K troops every 3 months from scratch? If Poland doesn't even have its own, where will it be found?
7K troops plus their gear is not a small footprint either. I have yet to see any evidence of this Ukrainian liberation force.
I agree, but there is something more, it is not the gear alone. Ukraine is somewhat short of Ukrainians. As David P. Goldman wrote in
Hollow Man of Europe
Ukrainians vote with their feet. Nine million have work abroad, according to the National Security and Defense Council of the Ukraine, and 3.2 million have full-time jobs in other countries. There are only 21 million Ukrainians between the ages of 20 and 55, which suggests that more than two-fifths of prime working-age Ukrainians earn their living elsewhere.
That was before the war. Since then, up to ten million Ukrainians out of 41m Ukrainian statistics assert (dubiously) have left the country, the vast majority not the elderly.
Moreover, of those 41 million, 6.4m live in Donetsk and Lugansk oblast, further well 2 million in the territories of Cherson, Zaporoshye, and souther Charkov oblast under control of the Russians and the LDNR.
And Verhovna Rada wisely issued a bill threatening all males abroad with punishment as deserters. Smart move ;). So combing cannon fodder is getting ever harder, summons being handed out in the streets, and in the queues at gas stations.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 17:20 utc | 50
Every day Russian Ministry of Defence reports total numbers of various Ukrainian weapons systems destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the Operation. I have used those to calculate totals for each week. (For example, May 19 – May 25 totals are May 26 morning totals minus May 19 morning totals.) Here are the results:
Week Air Hel UAV SAMS AFV MRL Art VehLegend:
Feb 24 – Mar 2 62 * 53 39 606 67 227 405 Mar 3 – Mar 9 35 * 54 102 380 40 141 344 Mar 10 – Mar 16 14 13 65 29 393 26 146 419 Mar 17 – Mar 23 1 2 85 32 193 27 119 211 Mar 24 – Mar 30 12 5 84 14 243 35 129 310 Mar 31 – Apr 6 1 18 75 11 188 25 107 213 Apr 7 – Apr 13 6 9 32 18 176 28 75 186 Apr 14 – Apr 20 9 2 63 9 231 14 102 171 Apr 21 – Apr 27 2 5 103 22 213 37 100 172 Apr 28 – May 4 7 1 112 12 211 26 160 215 May 5 – May 11 15 13 95 15 179 39 165 178 May 12 – May 18 8 0 121 10 145 31 91 202 May 19 – May 25 7 2 77 10 108 38 120 164
Air Aircraft Hel Helicopters UAV Unmanned aerial vehicles SAMS Surface-to-air missile systems AFV Armoured fighting vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs, etc.) MRL Multiple rocket launchers Art Field artillery pieces and mortars** Veh Special military vehicles (non-armoured vehicles)
* The total number of helicopters destroyed during the first two weeks (Feb 24 – Mar 9) is 57. Separate data for each week is not available.
** It’s unclear whether self-propelled artillery is included in “AFV” or “Art”. I think it’s in “AFV”.
Posted by: S | May 26 2022 17:22 utc | 51
Re Post 41 by C1ue
How long does it take to train a soldier?
looking at western armies basic training of a new recruit takes ten to 14 weeks. more specialist training would take further months including training in operating heavy weapons and machinery
The question of Ukie manpower is most important. How many potential recruits do the Ukrops actually have? They have deployed territorial battalions (Volksturm or home guard) composed of blokes in their forties and fifties to the front lines in Donbass where they are being slaughtered with horrific loss of life. The Ter bats were meant to have been used in their home oblasts for rear area duties and there appears to be some dissent about this.
Are they holding back better manpower for future use? or are they scaping the bottom of the manpower barrel? If the former which is pretty cynical then a summer counter offensive by an army re armed by NATO is conceivable although still unlikely to succeed, however if we are in bottom of the manpower barrel situation then the Ukie collapse could be pretty final
Posted by: Aslangeo | May 26 2022 17:32 utc | 52
@ ct | May 26 2022 16:59 utc | 46
It takes about 10 lbs or 5 kg pure Pu to make a fission bomb. Nuclear reactors constantly make the stuff - neutron capture and beta emission does occur transmuting U-238 to Pu-239. There are 6 reactors downriver fron Zaporizhzhia and, yes, large power reactors do indeed make tons of so-called 'spent' fuel each year. It can be chemically reprocessed to extract the relatively small amount of plutonium (10s of kg) from the bulk (1000s of kg) which is 'hot' with radioactive fission products and the unused uranium. Dirty secret of nuclear power is that the storage for this thoroughly dangerous high-level waste is bulging past capacity all across the US, much of it at 'swimming [cooling] pools' requiring constant maintenance at the reactor sites. It's vulnerable to power outage from natural diaster or ....
Unsure of the exact history here, but under IAEA/non-proliferation rules I'm guessing Ukraine recieved fresh fuel rods from Russia and sent the nasty crap back to Russia up until 2014. Not at all sure what's occurred since then. Perhaps US, UK, France &/or Germany have kept Ukraine fueled up.
Posted by: lemoyne | May 26 2022 17:36 utc | 53
ct @ 46
Those are normal amounts. That would be tons of enriched uranium, not tons of purified metal. Same for plutonium.
Of course it is from the reactors. Why else would the reactors be there. Civilian reactors have always been modestly screened military installations.
Ukraine used to manufacture the majority of the USSR nuclear arsenal.
It takes 3 kilos of weapons grade uranium to make a minimum size fission bomb. A ton would yield over 300 bombs.
Zaporozhye is a very large NPP. It is hardly the only Ukrainian NPP. This is a high stakes game. Russia knows this. So does everyone else.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 26 2022 17:39 utc | 54
Good article on Turkey and Ukraine by Valery Kulikovin NEO.
https://journal-neo.org/2022/05/26/on-washington-s-request-ukraine-has-now-turned-against-turkey-as-well/
This is a good quote too when you are dealing with "Russian atrocity" mongering.
"...The understanding of the neo-Nazi basis of Kiev’s policy has become increasingly entrenched in Turkish society. Turkish historian Mehmet Perinçek, who has personally spoken to people in liberated Ukrainian cities, in contrast to the West’s informational support for Kiev, told RT that Russian-speaking Ukrainians had lived under a “neo-Nazi dictatorship” for eight years. “I have spoken to various people from the liberated cities. They have really been living under a neo-Nazi dictatorship for these eight years,” he said. Ukrainians told the Turkish historian that they were prevented from celebrating Victory Day and speaking their own language, and that children in schools were forced to hate their neighbors. “I have heard this personally from ordinary people in Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol. During this dictatorship, people disappeared, went missing — this was all before the Russian special operation,” he said..."
Posted by: bevin | May 26 2022 17:44 utc | 56
Aslangeo@52
The training of Ukrainian troops and militias has been going on, inside and outside Ukraine, since 2014. Probably earlier- the Maidan heroes were trained in Poland and Canada, I believe.
Most of the training will have been aimed at producing officers and NCOs to train others -'the educators must be educated'.
There is therefore a large multiplication factor at work here. In six months a hundred men can be trained, so that each one can train a hundred more in six more months, each of whom...etc
And then there is the nature of the training: firstly to obey all orders. Once that has been done, and basic military skills have been absorbed, the cannon fodder (and it is cannon not canon, as people keep saying. For a canon in action see Bishop Richard Williamson @2) is ready to leave for the front.
Posted by: bevin | May 26 2022 17:53 utc | 57
We can’t just say Ukraine:
1. We must differentiate WEST Ukraine from EAST Ukraine.
2. EAST Ukraine is fighting on the Russian side against Kiev #Nazis.
Still don't believe that WEST Ukraine is ruled by Nazi ideology?
Fine, then check this thread (STRONG images)
https://twitter.com/Dosmasdos618/status/1522877285845585920?s=20&t=I_YgygqaTbNDt3nOxEfluw
bevin | May 26 2022 17:53 utc | 57
By the time Donetsk oblast has been taken, I think there will be well over 100,000 dead, wounded or taken prisoner. Those that are left or freshly trained may not be so keen to fight.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 18:10 utc | 59
aquadraht 23
The WSWS article referred to pointed out some of the economic difficulties that Russia faces as a result of the war; inflation, sanctions from the ‘west’ which bring advantages as well as difficulties, the costs of the over valuation of the ruble
As well as ‘decoupling’, the ongoing effort to shift exports from markets in the ‘west’, to recreate supply chains to reduce reliance on western IP, particularly in the oil industry, to conduct trade in other currencies than the $
Such decoupling is underway in China
To accompany reports on the war, which often dissolves into who is winning and who is losing, it is worthwhile to report on the effects of war on the homefront
Posted by: Gerrard White | May 26 2022 18:22 utc | 60
Michaelj72 [15]
I think you will find neither West Germany nor the GDR were really „de-nazified” as you quaintly put it. In 1950s around 33% members of ruling SED Party in GDR were former Nazis. Hans Globke Right-Hand Man to Konrad Adenauer in West wrote Nuremberg Race laws and was reason Eichmann had to be executed quickly. Most lawyers and doctors of Nazi era flourished even doctors from Buchenwald and other KZ
Daimler-Benz was a refuge for lots of former SS like Hanns-Martin Schleyer. Helmut Kohl’s career was sponsored by a Nazi industrialist called Ries whose son-in-law was Kurt Biedenkopf
You really are naive if you think Nazis were extirpated they were too useful.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 26 2022 18:33 utc | 61
@Peter AU1 #45
There are multiple types of artillery being deployed, also multiple types of ammunition for each artillery type.
In particular: the 2000 foot+ (and more likely higher) aerial photos - not totally clear to me that anything would be readily visible from an artillery strike that isn't 155mm+ full HE. I would be shocked if modern artillery has spreads that are all over the place, for example, but that type of spread is consistent with say, an MLRS strike judging from videos I have seen.
But MLRS or heavy artillery strikes are not just full HE. Anti-vehicle or fortification might use full HE, but antipersonnel would involve bomblets or thermobarics - which would not leave massive craters.
Then there are the mortar strikes. Again, I am no expert but not clear infantry mortars would leave these giant craters nor if they would be so spread out.
Looking at the different possible situations as well: we know both sides are making heavy use of drones.
Russians are shooting them down a lot, but it is not clear the reverse is true. And if Russians are indeed successfully deploying and using drone for artillery fire control and correction, the strikes are not going to be random - they are going to literally be correcting to sufficient proximity, then unleashing a barrage. Again, why would there be such huge spreads of basically wasted ammo if they have direct observation?
So I guess what I am saying is that anecdotal views have to be reconciled with what we know and can reasonably extrapolate.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 18:35 utc | 62
if it is only 100,000. The Mariupol group was 15-20k alone, and at the Donbass contact line, 120,000 troops were amassed, ready fro the onslaught. How many of those have been taken out is not clear, but I doubt that there was ever one of the 90 days without at least 500 irrecoverable lossses. POW and deserters not counted.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 18:36 utc | 63
@ct #46
plutonium is created in nuclear reactors as a function of normal operation: Over 1/3 of energy from most nuclear reactors comes from plutonium
The issue with weapons is not the plutonium per se, if you have multiple nuclear power plants like Ukraine does.
It is the refining of pure plutonium from reactor outputs.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 18:38 utc | 64
I do not understand why this is not a VERY big deal.
Posted by: ct | May 26 2022 16:59 utc | 46
FWIW, the first week of the SMO, when RU captured Chernobyl, my first reaction was, THANK GOD. NO DIRTY BOMB FISSIBLE MATERIAL for the crackheads TO HARVEST. Of course, that was before the IEA sent in flacks to inspect "damage" caused by RU fire. Or I counted the unusual number of NPPs planted in UA. Or Uncle Volody's telethon had even begun. Or the WAVE of millions "civilians" slinking into Poland. Which oddly enough was intercepted by the anglophone press campaign to "normalize" so-called tactical nukes and the peanut "false flag" connaisseurs' bear rally. At this point, feasting on weeks of belligerant, sanctimonious demands for MO' MONEY, I'd put nothing past Uncle Volody's émigré horde to facilitate a "big deal".
Posted by: sln2002 | May 26 2022 18:40 utc | 65
@aquadraht #50
Fully agree.
I have asked, many times, just how willing the overall Ukrainian population is to fight and die for Ukrainian nationalism.
The answer is still not clear to me, but it is most certainly not obviously "many or most".
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 18:41 utc | 66
UNIPOLAR WORLD ORDER FURTHER COLLAPSE
Saw this article in Sputnik
Botched Summit of Americas: US Hegemony No Longer Accepted in Latin America, Brazilian Scholar Says:
https://sputniknews.com/20220525/botched-summit-of-americas-us-hegemony-no-longer-accepted-in-latin-america-brazilian-scholar-says-1095778477.html
along with another on German Chancellor Scholtz visit to Africa
Ramaphosa and German Chancellor Scholz sharply disagree on Ukraine
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-05-24-ramaphosa-and-german-chancellor-scholz-sharply-disagree-on-ukraine/
and the ASEAN Washington DC meeting debacle earlier this month and it sure looks like the US led "rules-based order" is further collapsing.
To me these developments are more important than how the Ukraine conflict ends as the higher order objectives are already being met.
Enjoy your weekend.
Posted by: Douglas Houck | May 26 2022 18:43 utc | 67
@Paul Greenwood | May 26 2022 18:33 utc | 61
Daimler-Benz was a refuge for lots of former SS like Hanns-Martin Schleyer.I remember that kidnapping-story from a long time ago, I had no idea he was SS! I don't think it was in the news back then.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 18:43 utc | 68
« Open Thread (NOT Ukraine) 2022-73 | Main May 26, 2022 Ukraine Open Thread 2022-74Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.
Posted by b on May 26, 2022 at 12:49 UTC | Permalink
CommentsThe absolute arrogant belief that “Russia is Bad, and the West is Good” has led the West down a dark path of no return in Ukraine.
This will be hard for those hypnotized by Western media to understand but thinking of Russia as the “good guys” in the Ukraine conflict will bring a lot of clarity to the situation.
Here https://abrahamstein.substack.com/p/russia-is-saving-the-world-america
Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 26 2022 12:55 utc | 1
The dam of lies and obscenities is breaking.
"British Bishop Richard Williamson about Putin:" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2chRognUbwPosted by: Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
I'very watched Ursula von Looney's speech at Davos. She is not only on a state of serious delusion about all of this but she told monumental lies about the alleged wheat blockade. She has now become a serious liability and needs to go. You are right about their hatred of Russia leading them down a bad path which has led to blinday hysterical off the hoof decision making leading to the mess the collective West is now in. I say bravo to Victor Orban and all the other countries who have refused to become involved with this hatred. It seems to me the current PTB in Europe UK and USA could see the Unipolar Rules Based International Order as being their tickets to absolute power riches luxury whilst everyone else was enslaved. Well, I think the deep well of hatred against Russia is due to Putin's SCO on Ukraine has given the WEF a massive punch in the face.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 26 2022 13:18 utc | 3
dark path
Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 26 2022 12:55 utc | 1That path ain't "dark" as just about every MoA correspondent has pointed out. It's a white, all day, every day, war for supremacy.
Posted by: sln2002 | May 26 2022 13:33 utc | 4
Modern trench warfare. Analyzing 7 videos from Ukraine War: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5l6LY0QShY
Posted by: Mikkael | May 26 2022 13:34 utc | 5
The first German to head the EEC Commission was Walter Hallstein 1958 - he was through and through a Nazi.
The final head of the EU is Ursula von der Leyen whose grandfather I am informed was a participant at Babi Yar.
When Toto pulled the curtain aside and showed just who the Wizard of Oz really was it was enlightening and frightening - thanks to Russia and China - we now have the curtain torn away to reveal the inner workings of "the West"
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 26 2022 13:37 utc | 6
The lockstep of the western MSM is astounding and the level of "compliance" on part of the citizens (at least in the USA where I dwell) is a bit disheartening to say the least. One thing of many I've noticed is that not only do folks not have access in their daily lives to any perspective other than the dominant narrative (see above) but they very often lack the capacity to process anything that deviates from it! Simply put: they have been conditioned, and part of that is immediate rejection of any alternate viewpoint.
Posted by: Chevrus | May 26 2022 13:42 utc | 7
Perhaps it helps discussing Ukraine (and lots of other things) to point out the fact the U$A are just another plutocracy now. And there are only two real foreign policy principles operative.
The first, an iron-clad opposition to socialism.
The second, no other capitalist nation or group of nations (the EU) will be permitted to challenge U$-led unipolarity.Posted by: ChrisHerz | May 26 2022 13:49 utc | 8
The dam of lies and obscenities is breaking.
"British Bishop Richard Williamson about Putin:" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2chRognUbwPosted by: Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
Williamson is probably not the ally Russia or Putin wishes for, exactly.
Posted by: veto | May 26 2022 13:55 utc | 9
Putin has simplified the acquisition of Russian citizenship for residents of Zaporozh(ia)(zhia)(ye) and Kherson regions, restored water and telecoms, UAH + RUB banking, dual passport, and a coupla hospitals. Meanwhile, Uncle Volody has issued an edict declaring any "Ukrainian" who avails of these accommodations a traitor.
Yet another "settler-colonial" success story? Or, no?
Posted by: sln2002 | May 26 2022 14:01 utc | 10
Captured Switchblade.
https://t.me/intelslava/30008Posted by: Surferket | May 26 2022 14:12 utc | 11
@Mikkael #5
Re: modern trench warfare
Not clear to me at all.
I agree with the assertion that trenches protect against bullets.What is not clear to me is that open air trenches protect against modern artillery: bomblets, thermobaric, artillery storms, CAS as well as combined arms assaults. The reason Western militaries dig one-man foxholes is precisely that a long, open air trench funnels blasts and napalm all along its depth. The so-called modern trenches the video producer touts are actually very basic.
World War 1 trenches, after the initial artillery bombardments, were liberally dotted with covered dugouts, doglegs and so forth for precisely this reason.
So no, can't say this video shows much credibility.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 14:17 utc | 12
Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
Was this video about Bishop Williamson made in Poland? At one point there is in cyrillic
"Polsha" indicating the location of the event. How do we know that this is not a fake news and that it was not electronically manufactured?Posted by: fanto | May 26 2022 14:19 utc | 13
Scholz has seen the light. . and it's green . .but no allowance for Putin . .it's going to the MIC
. . .from DW
'Putin must not win this war,' Germany's Olaf Scholz tells Davos
"We cannot allow Putin to win this war," the German leader said on the final day of the World Economic Forum. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has dominated talks in Davos, Switzerland.
Scholz, who had been criticized for his initial hesitancy towards sending weapons to Ukraine, noted that Germany has now undergone a major shift in its defense policy.
"For the first time, Germany is supplying weapons to a war zone, including heavy weapons," he said, adding that €100 billion ($106 billion) would be made available to enhance Germany's defensive capabilities.
The chancellor also said that the war has increased pressure to meet climate change goals — especially in reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports from Russia.. . .herePosted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2022 14:43 utc | 14
re Don Bacon | May 26 2022 14:43 utc | 14thanks for that one D.B.
well, I guess Russia is going to have to de-militarize and de-nazify germany all over again. After they get done with finland, sweden and the dumb poles and baltic big-mouths first, of course.
(P.S. fuck the rich bitches I mean the war-mongering whores of late Capitalism, at davos. ah, now that feels better)
Posted by: michaelj72 | May 26 2022 14:54 utc | 15
@Mikkael | May 26 2022 13:34 utc | 5
Modern trench warfare. Analyzing 7 videos from Ukraine War: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5l6LY0QShY
Here is how the 'analysis' begins "At this point you are probably wondering why the war in Ukraine is dragging on for so long".
90 days is "so long"? The Russians have broken the largest army in Europe and captured an area equivalent to England + Wales. This guys isn't worth listening to.
And: He 'discovered' all these trenches that we have known were there the last ~8 years...
Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 16
@ Chevrus | May 26 2022 13:42 utc | 7
i share your well articulated viewpoint... thanks for saying all that...
here is a different analysis from someone inside russia.. i can't say i agree with it, but it made me think more... i agree with some of it..
Russia Needs to Get Serious About the War in Ukraine
Posted by: james | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 17
Over on the excellent Andrei Martyanov's blog he's discussing Russia's abandonment of the so-called Bologna education system. And he says this:
As Buzz Aldrin (I believe) said: in 1969 we thought that we would be flying to Mars in 2020, instead we have got Facebook. I may add B-737 Max, LCS and F-35.
I might add Osprey helicopters, Zumwalt-class destroyers and nuclear submarines that collide with underwater Chinese mountains.
-Z-Posted by: pasha | May 26 2022 15:02 utc | 18
Posted by: Cerena | May 26 2022 13:16 utc | 2
Thanks very much, Cerena!
Posted by: juliania | May 26 2022 15:02 utc | 19
"At least, so far as we know, no fetuses were injured in that shooting in Uvalde. Praise the Lord."
Posted by: Duncan Idaho | May 26 2022 15:06 utc | 20
Is there anything to the almost meme-ic insistence that Russia has lost a horrendous lot of tanks ?
Posted by: Dale | May 26 2022 15:06 utc | 21
Ukraine is a continuation of age-old processes; only the details differ
2 diametrical world views
American System 1776-1945
UK Imperialism 1066-today
https://archive.org/details/cu31924030185056FDR vs Churchill
https://archive.org/details/ashesawit00roosStage-IV reinfection of USA by UK ?
Kissinger/NeoCon Paranoia & Treason
https://findit.library.yale.edu/catalog/digcoll:558482
hubris masquerading as "moderation"is the American System really dead?
maybe in the USA, unless we jettison the British upper class, but it's resurrection is inevitable;
evolution has proceeded nonstop on planet Earth for 4.5 Billion yrs ... nothing has stopped it yetPosted by: Roger Erickson | May 26 2022 15:07 utc | 22
This here is - despite the dutybound "condemnation of Russian aggression" at the end a sober analysis
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/is-america-the-real-victim-of-anti-russia-sanctionsIt points out very clearly how the real balance of power looks in the world today. It contrasts a lot from trotskyite crap like cited in https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-propaganda-bbc-tries-to-sell-telegram-rumors-that-make-no-sense.html Gerrard White | May 25 2022 16:38 utc | 10 . Self appointed "Marxists" who do not even understand what GDP is and what not. Arnaud Bertrand provides a more "sober view".
That said, it is not that Russia does not have her problems, the internal traitors from the "elite" in particular.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 15:08 utc | 23
@14 Sounds like Olaf is still not happy with the Versailles Treaty. Looking for some Lebensraum is he?
Posted by: dh | May 26 2022 15:15 utc | 24
Article on Forbes from an Indian perspective on the Anti Russia sanctions
not much of it would be news to people commenting here but reality may start to reach the narrative mongers in the West
key point is "For leading developing countries such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa, protecting their freedom to trade with a commodity superpower such as Russia is as important as ensuring that they do not become the next victims of a globalizing West wielding its dominance in international financial institutions. While bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington DC push their wishful renewable energy dreams, the rest of the world has to get on with the ordinary business of making ends meet."
Posted by: Aslangeo | May 26 2022 15:22 utc | 25
Dale, 21:
> Is there anything to the almost meme-ic insistence that Russia has lost a horrendous lot of tanks ?
The insisters got it wrong, Russia has spent many tanks of fuel ...
Posted by: Mr Y | May 26 2022 15:32 utc | 26
Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 26 2022 12:55 utc | 1
Russians have tended to be on the side of the world's oppressed.
Compare and contrast:https://www.africanglobe.net/africa/america-supported-white-apartheid-south-africa/
Posted by: Seer | May 26 2022 15:43 utc | 27
From RT, Imran Khan issues ultimatum in Pakistan. This can get ugly.
Ousted Pakistan’s PM issues ultimatum
Imran Khan has warned the government he will march with millions into the capital unless elections are held in six days.Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan warned the country’s government on Thursday that he will march on the capital with millions of people in six days unless provincial assemblies are dissolved and new elections are held by that time.
Khan issued the ultimatum during a rally of thousands of demonstrators in Islamabad, where he called for the “imported government” to be brought down, insisting it is backed by foreign powers.
A former cricket star-turned-politician, Khan served as Pakistan’s prime minister for over three and a half years before being ousted in a no-confidence vote by parliament last month. He insists that his removal from office was orchestrated by the US in collusion with members of the current government headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Khan has suggested that he received threats from US officials over his refusal to bow to Washington’s demands and support the sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine.
(my emphasis)Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 15:43 utc | 28
Apologies, posted 28 to wrong thread.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 15:45 utc | 29
Aslangeo | May 26 2022 15:22 utc | 25.
Many thanks for that link to the Forbes article. Really illuminating. I don't think anything like enough attention has been paid to the economic war. This is the one that can decisively defeat the globalists presently running the western regimes. Russia is winning this hands down - arguably even more decisively than the military campaign. We know that western governments did not even consult their central banks and business leaders before slapping on the sanctions against Russia. As the article points out these have boomeranged even more spectacularly than predicted by critics at the start. The West is now as isolated economically as the Ukrainian cauldrons in Donbass, as most of the rest of the world ignores their "rules based order" sanctions order. Meanwhile, their own people endure blows to their welfare worse than anything since the 1940s - and far worse than Putin's Russians. As it becomes clearer how appallingly the regimes have miscalculated, we can expect more and more dissension in the ranks as those who can seek to disassociate themselves from the failure. All the signs are that the regimes will simply try to blank out the news and move on to the next contrived "pandemic". They must not be allowed to get away with it.Posted by: ManintheMoon | May 26 2022 15:45 utc | 30
May I just point out the blatantly obvious, which is, although its 'un woke' to point it out, that if the USSR hadn't been undermined and overthrown, and capitalism hadn't been restored, then none of the people who died in the Nato invasion of Yugoslavia would have died, none of the people who died in the 'little wars' of the 21st century on the Russian borders would have died, and none of the people currently dying in the Ukraine would have died.
Am I saying that the world would now be a better place if the USSR had not fallen?Yes.
Posted by: Hidari | May 26 2022 15:57 utc | 31
@ ManintheMoon | May 26 2022 15:45 utc | 30 - "rules based order"
speaking of passing off its domestic notions as international rules.............
Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Defense.
"The United States should stop passing off its domestic notions as international rules, the pursuit of [goals] of American hegemony is also a mistake, we urge them to objectively consider and accept China's peaceful development. This will benefit China-US relations, as well as global peace and stability," he said
of course the same could be said for russia as well, but as chas freeman so succinctly put it - ''fighting russia down to the last ukrainian'' is in the usa's and not ukraines best interests....
Posted by: james | May 26 2022 16:01 utc | 32
“Something could happen” with the oil pipeline running to Hungary, a Ukrainian official has warned...
Fings break, dunnay?
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x75bt6
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 26 2022 16:06 utc | 33
re: trench video
That defense has worked when all the elements combine: favorable geography (hill/river barriers), complex fortifications, regular trenches, plentiful bodies for cannon fodder, cover via forests, and nearby urban area with human shields (and "ideological" units to keep them from leaving), and also hiding places prob. also with the human shields, for the rockets/arty, air defense, and reserve of higher quality troops with tanks and btr's and whatnot.
lose the geography (eg hill or valley or river crossing) and it is vulnerable. lose the town center (human shields) and it is vulnerable. lose the mobile units and it is vulnerable. lose the counter artillery and it is vulnerable. lose the air defense and it is vulnerable.
what might be happening, least bad for UA, is if they recognize that their prewar-LOC defense line can be methodically broken, which I think is recognized now, except not politically. It follows to rotate out the high quality VSU troops, and leave the cannon fodder behind to slow down RF movement. Clearly they are still holding out for time to train more numbers of competent forces, receive maybe more capable weapons from UA - though the net rate is clearly a decrease in quantity.
Without (despite endless calls to do it!) shutting down UA national transport infrastructure, the whole conflict is in kindof an attritional mode, though a lopsided one.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:07 utc | 34
typo above - receive from *US*, obv.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:09 utc | 35
. . .from Kyiv Post
British Defense Intelligence Update, May 26, 2022 . .here
hint: don't expect much intelligence from British IntelligencePosted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2022 16:12 utc | 36
re: trench video
and to emphasize, short if an Azovstal level of fortification, there needs to be something to prevent bombardment with rocket barrage - ie inhabited area for human shields. Trench network on a treeline in an agricultural area is a speedbump, not a barrier.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:15 utc | 37
@ ptb 37
Trench network on a treeline in an agricultural area is a speedbump, not a barrier.
Trenches provide protection from artillery and also protected firing points, anti-tank etc. Of course the trenches must have covering fire from other positions.Posted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2022 16:22 utc | 38
@Don Bacon | May 26 2022 16:22 utc | 38
Trenches protect from infantry gun fire, and from horizontal and flat angle artillery. They offer few protection from steep angle artillery such as mortars and howitzers, poor protection from MLRS salvos, and close to no protection from thermobaric missile barrages, due to heat as well as rarefaction.Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 16:32 utc | 39
Several barflies noticed an historical threshhold YouTube crossed for us yesterday: blatant erasure of inconvenient historical events. This comment, from the thread underneath the ConsortiumNews story about it, sums up my own impression:
This is exactly like the scene in 1984 where Winston of the Ministry of Truth discovers a photograph in the archives showing three men that were supposed to be dead enemies that incriminates the Party and does his job by trying to memory hole it. YouTube is becoming the Memory Hole. Remember. Oceania has always been at war with Southeast Asia.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 26 2022 16:35 utc | 40
@ptb #34
Couple notes:1) Shutting down all Ukraine transport = "Doing an Iraq" plus "Doing an Afghanistan" all at once.
"Doing an Iraq" is taking a society back to the pre-fossil fuel era - and since Russia is clearly expecting to take and keep a significant part of it (if not more), seems counterproductive. Everything Russia destroys is going to have to be rebuilt.
"Doing an Afghanistan" is killing enough civilians going about their civilian business that the entire countryside is inflamed because everybody has lost a sister, brother, parent, child, cousin, uncles/aunts etc to a missile from the sky. That didn't work in Afghanistan or Vietnam, why is it a good idea?2) Training in the West. I have no doubt some of it is happening, but what I have yet to see any evidence of is whether this is being done with scale, and furthermore even if it is being done at scale - whether there are weapons.
Let's look at pre-2/24/2022: NATO had a training base, in Ukraine, that was pushing through 8000 soldiers a year (if I recall correctly). Now let's say this is magically being replicated, and even increased 5x, in 2 different locations: Germany and Poland. So that's 40Kx2 = 80K soldiers a year being trained. But the SMO is only 3 months old. Even if this training had begun literally in February, there would be at best 20K soldiers trained in 3 months - and that's assuming instantaneous training.
Ukraine is likely losing 500 soldiers a day = 45K lost in 3 months. So increasing pre-2/24/2022 training rates by 10x, and having magical instantaneous training, would still see Ukraine losing 25K soldiers every 3 months.
And this skips the gear problem. Poland is apparently angry because Germany isn't delivering replacement tanks to Poland fast enough - replacements for the Polish gear that apparently all went to Ukraine. Poland accusing Berlin of broken promises on tanks - politico.eu
How much gear do you need to equip 20K troops every 3 months from scratch? If Poland doesn't even have its own, where will it be found?7K troops plus their gear is not a small footprint either. I have yet to see any evidence of this Ukrainian liberation force.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 16:38 utc | 41
Norwegian | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 16
There is a little more going on here. I have looked at the fortified zone on the old frontlines a few times and it is 10/20/30 km deep. The odd thing is that it is being attacked frontally rather than having the main effort coming from either end and wrapping around the ends of the fortified line. Reinforcement and resupply can constantly be brought in from the rear.
The only reason I can think of is to destroy the bulk of the Ukraine army in the old frontlines rather than spreading the destruction across a good part of eastern Ukraine.Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 16:41 utc | 42
@ James 17
I checked out the article and it’s definitely an interesting take. Rose colored lenses are to be avoided at all times, and just because Kiev has the biggest set does not mean that the RF is not in possession of their own. What I found notable is that the writer states that RF forces (generally) are hampered from moving about the countryside. Based on some of the recent offensive movements that would not seem to be the case but who knows. Another bit was the interpretation of the initial moves on Kiev as a failed attempt at some sort of shock and awe…. If I recall correctly there was a very long (20km?) column of vehicles idling outside Kiev for quite some time. If UAF forces wanted an easy target, that would have been it. But nothing happened to it as far as I know…. Filed under: If you coulda, ya woulda. It seems more like a feint in order to fix Ukrainian forces as they braced to defend the capitol.In regard to commitment of forces, more would be better but leaving other areas deficient in the face of a wider conflict would be dangerous. As of today there are reports of an increase in air power, so who knows. I am admittedly a bit biased because I have been following the conflict for the past 8 years and am also not blind to the corruption and abuse Ukraine has endured in Uncle Sam’s vampire appendages. The other thing about the majority of western wonder weapons getting through and making a difference strikes me as a bit of an overstatement. How can the RF assets not know where and when? Spying could not be easier and they have had decades to network. If they are working out so well why would you need to pass a law that forbids criticizing them? By the same token why make the decree in writing that desertion or hesitation is met with shot in the back if things are going so well? Surely the many videos of UAF soldiers essentially complaining out of desperation for lack of supplies and leadership aren’t all fake?
Granted the USA and Friends can and very likely will continue to pour gas on the fire, but unless they are willing to intervene directly it will only do so much “good”. Add to that the European Foot-Shooting Society’s willingness to sacrifice it’s citizens living standards for the sake of destroying their own societies in the name of some great reset, and one has to wonder how long they can continue. But what do I know, I ain’t no general and the only armchair I own isn’t all that comfy so my dog sits in it….
Posted by: Chevrus | May 26 2022 16:49 utc | 43
@41 c1ue
Thanks for that response, those are important things.
The first point is especially fundamental, and I'm glad it is not happening in the style of Iraq or Yugoslavia or dozens of other examples. Still there are middle grounds, like knocking out rail, bridges, and motor fuel more aggressively than has been the case. A pattern I'm sure everyone noticed is that newly liberated places, if they have the good fortune to be taken intact, immediately become targets for bombardment by their former occupiers. Especially the points of transport infrastructure like mentioned.
To the second point... So far true. No fundamental reason that it must stay true, alas - hopefully the basic survival instinct in the reservist-eligible population kicks in sooner rather than later. This is actually starting to happen, per videos.
Posted by: ptb | May 26 2022 16:53 utc | 44
c1ue | May 26 2022 14:17 utc | 12
What has been noticeable to me and also mentioned in that video is the great spread of strikes.
Without visual correction it takes many truckloads of shells just to land a few in the trenches.Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 16:57 utc | 45
How many tons of unenriched plutonium does it take to make a nuclear bomb?
https://lyricsgenius.eu/iaea-reports-tons-of-plutonium-and-enriched-uranium-at-zaporozhye-npp.php
How exactly did UKR get so much nuclear material? It was not from the local reactors.
I do not understand why this is not a VERY big deal.
Posted by: ct | May 26 2022 16:59 utc | 46
Zelenski promissed to run Ukraine like Isrsel aftet the war. The enemy population will have to be put under military control, with militsry present permanently in malls, movie theatres, public spaces. Like in Israel , the “enemy population” are native Ukrainians and Russians, and the patriots are tge West Ukrainians — formerly from Poland and Austrihungary. They bravely defended Ukraine against Soviet Union. Never mind they did it for loyalty to Hitler, playing his rear guard, sllowing down Soviets from pursuing Hitler to Berlin.
As Berlin fell, those patriots could not wait to put themselves to the service of any Western Russiphobe. Estatic now, but not for long.Posted by: Bianca | May 26 2022 17:04 utc | 47
@ ct - It was probably sitting around in some warehouse, forgotten with the demise of the Soviet Union. I happened in Kazakhstan.
Here's a link to Project Sapphire from NSA Archive.Sapphire
Posted by: lex talionis | May 26 2022 17:06 utc | 48
Since the start of this operation, DPR forces have been trying to circle Avdivka. 3 months to push forwards just a few k's.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1B1PLMhbHmG1aJ2-QNxHY1TksI6HlNhqF&ll=48.133567510999434%2C37.76358981238908&z=12Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 17:20 utc | 49
@c1ue | May 26 2022 16:38 utc | 41 c1ue
..How much gear do you need to equip 20K troops every 3 months from scratch? If Poland doesn't even have its own, where will it be found?
7K troops plus their gear is not a small footprint either. I have yet to see any evidence of this Ukrainian liberation force.
I agree, but there is something more, it is not the gear alone. Ukraine is somewhat short of Ukrainians. As David P. Goldman wrote in
Hollow Man of EuropeUkrainians vote with their feet. Nine million have work abroad, according to the National Security and Defense Council of the Ukraine, and 3.2 million have full-time jobs in other countries. There are only 21 million Ukrainians between the ages of 20 and 55, which suggests that more than two-fifths of prime working-age Ukrainians earn their living elsewhere.
That was before the war. Since then, up to ten million Ukrainians out of 41m Ukrainian statistics assert (dubiously) have left the country, the vast majority not the elderly.Moreover, of those 41 million, 6.4m live in Donetsk and Lugansk oblast, further well 2 million in the territories of Cherson, Zaporoshye, and souther Charkov oblast under control of the Russians and the LDNR.
And Verhovna Rada wisely issued a bill threatening all males abroad with punishment as deserters. Smart move ;). So combing cannon fodder is getting ever harder, summons being handed out in the streets, and in the queues at gas stations.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 17:20 utc | 50
Every day Russian Ministry of Defence reports total numbers of various Ukrainian weapons systems destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the Operation. I have used those to calculate totals for each week. (For example, May 19 – May 25 totals are May 26 morning totals minus May 19 morning totals.) Here are the results:
Week Air Hel UAV SAMS AFV MRL Art Veh
Feb 24 – Mar 2 62 * 53 39 606 67 227 405
Mar 3 – Mar 9 35 * 54 102 380 40 141 344
Mar 10 – Mar 16 14 13 65 29 393 26 146 419
Mar 17 – Mar 23 1 2 85 32 193 27 119 211
Mar 24 – Mar 30 12 5 84 14 243 35 129 310
Mar 31 – Apr 6 1 18 75 11 188 25 107 213
Apr 7 – Apr 13 6 9 32 18 176 28 75 186
Apr 14 – Apr 20 9 2 63 9 231 14 102 171
Apr 21 – Apr 27 2 5 103 22 213 37 100 172
Apr 28 – May 4 7 1 112 12 211 26 160 215
May 5 – May 11 15 13 95 15 179 39 165 178
May 12 – May 18 8 0 121 10 145 31 91 202
May 19 – May 25 7 2 77 10 108 38 120 164Legend:
Air Aircraft
Hel Helicopters
UAV Unmanned aerial vehicles
SAMS Surface-to-air missile systems
AFV Armoured fighting vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs, etc.)
MRL Multiple rocket launchers
Art Field artillery pieces and mortars**
Veh Special military vehicles (non-armoured vehicles)* The total number of helicopters destroyed during the first two weeks (Feb 24 – Mar 9) is 57. Separate data for each week is not available.
** It’s unclear whether self-propelled artillery is included in “AFV” or “Art”. I think it’s in “AFV”.
Posted by: S | May 26 2022 17:22 utc | 51
Re Post 41 by C1ue
How long does it take to train a soldier?
looking at western armies basic training of a new recruit takes ten to 14 weeks. more specialist training would take further months including training in operating heavy weapons and machinery
The question of Ukie manpower is most important. How many potential recruits do the Ukrops actually have? They have deployed territorial battalions (Volksturm or home guard) composed of blokes in their forties and fifties to the front lines in Donbass where they are being slaughtered with horrific loss of life. The Ter bats were meant to have been used in their home oblasts for rear area duties and there appears to be some dissent about this.
Are they holding back better manpower for future use? or are they scaping the bottom of the manpower barrel? If the former which is pretty cynical then a summer counter offensive by an army re armed by NATO is conceivable although still unlikely to succeed, however if we are in bottom of the manpower barrel situation then the Ukie collapse could be pretty final
Posted by: Aslangeo | May 26 2022 17:32 utc | 52
@ ct | May 26 2022 16:59 utc | 46
It takes about 10 lbs or 5 kg pure Pu to make a fission bomb. Nuclear reactors constantly make the stuff - neutron capture and beta emission does occur transmuting U-238 to Pu-239. There are 6 reactors downriver fron Zaporizhzhia and, yes, large power reactors do indeed make tons of so-called 'spent' fuel each year. It can be chemically reprocessed to extract the relatively small amount of plutonium (10s of kg) from the bulk (1000s of kg) which is 'hot' with radioactive fission products and the unused uranium. Dirty secret of nuclear power is that the storage for this thoroughly dangerous high-level waste is bulging past capacity all across the US, much of it at 'swimming [cooling] pools' requiring constant maintenance at the reactor sites. It's vulnerable to power outage from natural diaster or ....
Unsure of the exact history here, but under IAEA/non-proliferation rules I'm guessing Ukraine recieved fresh fuel rods from Russia and sent the nasty crap back to Russia up until 2014. Not at all sure what's occurred since then. Perhaps US, UK, France &/or Germany have kept Ukraine fueled up.
Posted by: lemoyne | May 26 2022 17:36 utc | 53
ct @ 46
Those are normal amounts. That would be tons of enriched uranium, not tons of purified metal. Same for plutonium.
Of course it is from the reactors. Why else would the reactors be there. Civilian reactors have always been modestly screened military installations.
Ukraine used to manufacture the majority of the USSR nuclear arsenal.
It takes 3 kilos of weapons grade uranium to make a minimum size fission bomb. A ton would yield over 300 bombs.
Zaporozhye is a very large NPP. It is hardly the only Ukrainian NPP. This is a high stakes game. Russia knows this. So does everyone else.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 26 2022 17:39 utc | 54
Excellent read
Posted by: Jpc | May 26 2022 17:42 utc | 55
Good article on Turkey and Ukraine by Valery Kulikovin NEO.
https://journal-neo.org/2022/05/26/on-washington-s-request-ukraine-has-now-turned-against-turkey-as-well/
This is a good quote too when you are dealing with "Russian atrocity" mongering.
"...The understanding of the neo-Nazi basis of Kiev’s policy has become increasingly entrenched in Turkish society. Turkish historian Mehmet Perinçek, who has personally spoken to people in liberated Ukrainian cities, in contrast to the West’s informational support for Kiev, told RT that Russian-speaking Ukrainians had lived under a “neo-Nazi dictatorship” for eight years. “I have spoken to various people from the liberated cities. They have really been living under a neo-Nazi dictatorship for these eight years,” he said. Ukrainians told the Turkish historian that they were prevented from celebrating Victory Day and speaking their own language, and that children in schools were forced to hate their neighbors. “I have heard this personally from ordinary people in Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol. During this dictatorship, people disappeared, went missing — this was all before the Russian special operation,” he said..."Posted by: bevin | May 26 2022 17:44 utc | 56
Aslangeo@52
The training of Ukrainian troops and militias has been going on, inside and outside Ukraine, since 2014. Probably earlier- the Maidan heroes were trained in Poland and Canada, I believe.
Most of the training will have been aimed at producing officers and NCOs to train others -'the educators must be educated'.
There is therefore a large multiplication factor at work here. In six months a hundred men can be trained, so that each one can train a hundred more in six more months, each of whom...etc
And then there is the nature of the training: firstly to obey all orders. Once that has been done, and basic military skills have been absorbed, the cannon fodder (and it is cannon not canon, as people keep saying. For a canon in action see Bishop Richard Williamson @2) is ready to leave for the front.Posted by: bevin | May 26 2022 17:53 utc | 57
We can’t just say Ukraine:
1. We must differentiate WEST Ukraine from EAST Ukraine.
2. EAST Ukraine is fighting on the Russian side against Kiev #Nazis.Still don't believe that WEST Ukraine is ruled by Nazi ideology?
Fine, then check this thread (STRONG images)https://twitter.com/Dosmasdos618/status/1522877285845585920?s=20&t=I_YgygqaTbNDt3nOxEfluw
Posted by: Biden | May 26 2022 18:07 utc | 58
bevin | May 26 2022 17:53 utc | 57
By the time Donetsk oblast has been taken, I think there will be well over 100,000 dead, wounded or taken prisoner. Those that are left or freshly trained may not be so keen to fight.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 18:10 utc | 59
aquadraht 23
The WSWS article referred to pointed out some of the economic difficulties that Russia faces as a result of the war; inflation, sanctions from the ‘west’ which bring advantages as well as difficulties, the costs of the over valuation of the ruble
As well as ‘decoupling’, the ongoing effort to shift exports from markets in the ‘west’, to recreate supply chains to reduce reliance on western IP, particularly in the oil industry, to conduct trade in other currencies than the $
Such decoupling is underway in China
To accompany reports on the war, which often dissolves into who is winning and who is losing, it is worthwhile to report on the effects of war on the homefront
Posted by: Gerrard White | May 26 2022 18:22 utc | 60
Michaelj72 [15]
I think you will find neither West Germany nor the GDR were really „de-nazified” as you quaintly put it. In 1950s around 33% members of ruling SED Party in GDR were former Nazis. Hans Globke Right-Hand Man to Konrad Adenauer in West wrote Nuremberg Race laws and was reason Eichmann had to be executed quickly. Most lawyers and doctors of Nazi era flourished even doctors from Buchenwald and other KZ
Daimler-Benz was a refuge for lots of former SS like Hanns-Martin Schleyer. Helmut Kohl’s career was sponsored by a Nazi industrialist called Ries whose son-in-law was Kurt Biedenkopf
You really are naive if you think Nazis were extirpated they were too useful.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 26 2022 18:33 utc | 61
Practically the entire Nazi judiciary survived the "Stunde Null" unscathed and with their positions, at least in the West, and the postwar revision of the Strafgesetzbuch was, well, piecemeal.
Posted by: malenkov | May 26 2022 18:49 utc | 69
Apologies for that last -- sometimes my cut/paste function malfunctions like that, and I failed to catch it in time.
Posted by: malenkov | May 26 2022 18:50 utc | 70
c1ue | May 26 2022 18:35 utc | 62
Rybar, two telegram accounts from militia members and a number of other Russian accounts have commented on the lack of drones. The Rybar group raised money to purchase drones.
Russian military seem to use a relatively low number of fixed wing drone for general surveillance and for high value targets but what stands out in this war is that very battery, mortar crew, assault unit ect needs the small quadcopters. Chechen's appear to be using them to good effect.
Ukraine has used them to good effect and perhaps a good part of the reason Russia sustained serious casualties (Putin's words) in the first phase of the war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 18:52 utc | 71
@S #51
Thanks for the compilation.
Totals:
Air 179
Hel 70
UAV 1019
SAMS 323
AFV 3266
MRL 433
Art 1682
Veh 3190
Categories aren't the same, but data from armedforces.eu:
Air: 99
Hel: 129
AFV: 6990
MRL: 630
Artillery: 3721
Seems like demilitarization is proceeding very effectively.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 18:53 utc | 72
@sln2002 10
In practice this could have been a solution to the ethnic instability without ceding territory as in practice what Putin is giving out is emigration papers to Russia proper to ethnic Russians.
There were so many options to resolve the civil war the neocons started in Eastern Ukraine without a war or even territory loss for Ukraine it makes me sick.
Posted by: Altai | May 26 2022 18:57 utc | 73
@Aslangeo #52
I may be mistaken, but my understanding has always been that "basic training" is literally that: fitness, military etiquette, discipline, maybe learning to maintain and use a rifle.
Training to be a tanker, an artillerist, a CAS or fighter pilot, a SAM operator has to be additional.
Specialist training as noted above is also not the same type of task as "basic training".
And while I am not a military person, I also understand that the majority of random warm bodies joining a military are simply unsuited to combat. Combat places enormous stresses on people by itself; many people also are simply mentally unable to handle killing other people (and being shot at themselves).
In peacetime, this isn't a big deal but Ukraine is in a hot shooting war.
As such, I think it is a vast oversimplification to think that a random warm body can be sent into training and come out a moderately competent contributor of military power in 14 weeks.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 18:58 utc | 74
Hi barflies. I have heard a couple of commentators now claim that the so called Wagner Group is playing a significant role in the SMO in the Donbas. In particular I just watched a guy who claimed up to 8000 of them might be actively fighting there. Can any of the the folk here who are paying more attention to the situation than I am find evidence that the Wagner boys are involved to a significant degree? Seems kind of surprising that the RF would hire a private mercernary army when they have so many regular forces in reserve... Or maybe it's not that surprising. Apparently Blackwater is also in Ukraine, so maybe this is the future of war after all...
If anyone can come up with some more info on this that would be great.
@Peter AU1 #71
Are you referencing LDPR militia members? If so, that would likely explain it. LDPR does not get front line Russian military equipment. They get captured gear and old castoff Russian gear - comparable to what Ukraine uses including captured NATO gear.
Philip Karber explicitly noted that Russian AFVs have integral slots for drones.
As for "fixed wing drones": again, Karber noted (and keep in mind this was 2018) that the Russian military makes little use of Predator type surveillance and attack drones but extremely intensive use of small quadcopter types - and this was based not just on theory but direct personal observation (including the ensuing artillery strike).
So what you said may be correct, but then again given the complete blackout of direct Russian army news, I would take secondary sources with huge boulders of salt.
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 19:06 utc | 76
@Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 18:52 utc | 71
I disagree to some extent about UAV usage in the RF units. It was apparently lacking a lot in the beginning, but even MoD vids now show that UAV are widely used for artillery support, target finding, and general surveillance. The Veche NGO provides the LDNR militia with drones, and also other equipment lacking there. It seems that the RF has missed out a lot in equipping those highly motivated troops of the republics. After the first two weeks only, on pressure of public opinion in the RF, Putin ordered that trophy armour, vehicles, and other weaponry be given to the LDNR forces.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 19:13 utc | 77
@c1ue | May 26 2022 18:58 utc | 74
Fully agree that some weeks of training do not make a soldier. Literature from past wars, ACW, WWI/II, Spanish Civil War etc. suggest that fresh recruits, even those which had military training before, always rather were a liability than much help for the first weeks of combat, and that was in armies with relatively stable front lines and overall strategic situations.
Moreover, the wild equipment zoo of the UA army adds to the problems. Ammonition often is not interoperable between NATO and USSR stuff, spare parts for repairs are even less. And the handling of new armor and arta has to be learned and practised. It looks at the moment, that the UAF are losing more than the West is equipping. And western military is already lamenting about being out of stock.
Posted by: aquadraht | May 26 2022 19:22 utc | 78
lemoyne@ 53
After 2014 Ukraine was getting fuel rods from Westinghouse. It was a disaster and we are lucky it was not a worse disaster. They reverted to getting their fuel from Russia.
You are correct about the overflowing spent fuel pools. Not just US, everywhere. At Fukushima #4 it was the spent fuel pool that blew. And blew completely, all blown sky high into atmosphere and Pacific. The spent fuel pool hazard is worse than the nuclear war hazard. I do not expect anyone to accept that. More comfortable to not know.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 26 2022 19:25 utc | 79
these jackals who surround zelensky and his rotten to the core gang of traitors ... they are killing tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians in their refusal to negotiate early on in the war; and even long before that in their total refusal, along with France and Germany, to implement the Minsk Agreements. And now they are paying for it all.
the Maidan coup in 2014 and the subsequent take-over of the government by the neo-nazis and other far-right wing elements (all of them supported by the UK and the USA) was the end of the Ukraine as a sovereign nation-state. The fools; they will now all be swept away.
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-consequences-petty-tabaquis-howling/
".....Ukrainian presidential advisor Alexey Arestovich resorted to obscene language to criticize those in the West urging Kiev to cede part of the country’s territory to Russia for the sake of peace.
“Go f**k yourselves with such proposals, you dumb f**ks, to trade Ukrainian territory a little bit! Are you f**king crazy? Our children are dying, soldiers are stopping shells with their own bodies, and they are telling us how to sacrifice our territories. This will never happen,” Arestovich said in an interview on Wednesday.
I got news for this guy, it has already happened Arestovich, already happened. the Ukraine is already partitioned and Russia will never ever give back the eastern regions nor the Southern coastal regions, ever. you dumb traitorous f*ck!!
Posted by: michaelj72 | May 26 2022 19:37 utc | 80
#-Posted by: veto | May 26 2022 13:55 utc | 9
Williamson is probably not the ally Russia or Putin wishes for, exactly.
What kind of allies do you think they wish for then, exactly?
Putin is a christian and is never afraid to confess it.
Posted by: Anne B | May 26 2022 19:39 utc | 81
aquadraht | 78 and c1ue| 74
I agree - basic training just gets someone into the very initial stages of being a soldier - military discipline and a few elementary skills in 3 months or so
Further specialist training as tank crews, artillery gunners etc takes another several months - so any fresh Ukrop army for the proposed counter offensive is unlikely to materialise before six months from now.
Somebody earlier mentioned the NATO training over the last eight years - this is true and a valid point, however the Ukrops have had very large irrecoverable losses (KIA , serious WIA and POW) and their tactics of holding to indefensible front line positions are likely to lead to more losses instead of saving cadres for reconstruction.
A further question is how many potential recruits the Ukies have left? friends who have relatives in Ukropia are saying that their menfolk are in hiding from the press gangs since only the nationalist headcases actually want to fight. Anybody with any sense and resources to bribe border guards would have already fled to Europe
Posted by: Aslangeo | May 26 2022 19:39 utc | 82
Peter AU1@59
Agreed. The real problem the Ukrainian fascists face is that only a small part of the population has been indoctrinated with nationalism. And they are too young to fight. The older generation look back, one suspects, longingly to the relative freedom and prosperity of Soviet times.
Paul@61
Useful particularly because they shared the same basic worldview and ideology. The transition from Naziism to US imperial sponsored 'democracy' was seamless.
Posted by: bevin | May 26 2022 19:41 utc | 83
In practice this could have been a solution to the ethnic instability without ceding territory as in practice what Putin is giving out is emigration papers to Russia proper to ethnic Russians.
Posted by: Altai | May 26 2022 18:57 utc | 73
A couple months ago, census discrepancies (demographic detail) in wikiwtf's "Mariupol" article piqued my interest. Recall that the official total of the 2ND LARGEST CITY was 450K before the SMO; by 24 Feb tho' the headline was ~150K. Where did they all go? I asked myself. So I scavanged the web, found a few UA.gov tables (2014, 2001) AND US Census! report for UA 1998. These data, by no means comprehensive, still illustrated a salient trend: "ethnic-Russian" UA out-migration ("attrition") from 1991 independence and merely acelerated after Maidan erupted.
Now, I've got the distinct impression that RU had facilitated naturalization for "ethnic-Russian" Ukrainians fleeing UAF-Donbas war since 2014, ie. before westworld noticed. And freelance canvassing in Mariupol, especially, consistently depicts aged and infirm "remainers" seeking to be reunited with children ... where? Russia. Am I misinformed?
Posted by: sln2002 | May 26 2022 19:44 utc | 84
c1ue | May 26 2022 19:06 utc | 76
Until this operation, what we have seen of Russian military - airforce, special forces, various missile forces has been of exceptional quality but this is the first time we have seen the regular forces - tank, artillery, infantry.
It was first Putin stating Russia had taken serious losses in the first phase then the inability to suppress artillery fire on the river crossing nor keep Ukraine drones out of the sky at that bridge made me look a bit closer.
I take it Russian military will be using this as a testing operation for their regular and other forces against a somewhat nato equipped, trained and nato intel force.
It is also an operation where the people they want to save are being used as human shields so certainly not a regular war. Ukraine artillery and tanks being sited amongst civilians means a great need for precision strikes.
Detection equipment and electronic jamming guns are only in the last week or two being seen with Russian (not DPR or LPR) forces. The figures S put up were interesting. The number of drones downed in the last weeks increased substantially.
Overall the Ukraine forces are being ground up, there attrition rate is high and the allied forces with clean up LPR and DPR to their administrative borders but I do think regular forces have taken a lot of unnecessary losses due to lack of small drone defense and I believe lack of drone coverage for every unit. It is something that surprised me considering the general overall quality of the Russian military.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 19:45 utc | 85
aquadraht | May 26 2022 19:13 utc | 77
I have read - I think Rybar - but apparently Russian military recognized the issue in the first couple of weeks and began to address it.
Agree on supplying LDNR. Russia is investing a lot there. They seem to have plenty of other equipment drones being the main issue. I think the need for regular forces to have both drones and drone detection equipment was overlooked by Russia until this operation
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 19:58 utc | 86
Posted by: james | May 26 2022 14:56 utc | 17
Started reading read and already disagree with him. He wants conscripts used and reserves? Russia already is not using maybe 300,000 of its existing contract army. Why the hell would they need more than that? At worst Russia should bring in maybe another 100,000 troops and some more artillery. At worst.
Then he says this crap: "Probably they planned to figure it out on the go. Ad hoc improvisation has been their MO in Ukraine since at least February 2014"
He needs to go over to Martyanov's site and see how long he lasts with that bullshit.
This is just another guy who wants it to be over in a week. In other words, a concern troll. Forget him. Nothing he says is worth reading.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2022 20:00 utc | 87
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 16:38 utc | 41
Correct. The whole concept of a "reconstituted Ukraine army" is bullshit. How Ritter got buried in it is beyond me. Even Mercouris saw through it and he knows next to nothing about military matters.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2022 20:07 utc | 88
@ James 17
Nice article. Thanks.
If the reporting from the NY Times a few weeks ago is correct (and that is always a 50/50 proposition), then Ukraine destroyed 300 bridges in and around Kiev and one flood control dam. That left few avenues of approach for RF.
BUT...it also isolated the Uke forces. When RF moved their units to the Donbass, a good portion of the Kiev forces should have followed on their side of the lines. They didn't, because They had a more difficult route, and Zelinsky wanted to keep a show of force for all his visiting western friends.
I think very few take this into account. If you are prevented from going forward, you have to go backward. Sitting still has bad results, as was seen after the first week.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 26 2022 20:08 utc | 89
Interesting translation of surrender instruction text in leaflets fired from Russian red artillery shells + comparison with recent videos from ukrainian units. The leaflets give instructions that surrender must be done by complete units. A lone soldier can be charged with treason, but not a unit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkEbgImWitQ&t=50s
Posted by: Norwegian | May 26 2022 20:15 utc | 90
Posted by: c1ue | May 26 2022 18:35 utc | 62
I've seen a number of drone videos where a bunch of Ukies are running around in a trench - and then they get hit dead on or close enough as to make no difference. An older artillery might spread a salvo out but the Russians have artillery which is pretty precise, especially with drone coordinates. After that, it's a matter of repeated salvos. You look at some of those photos, there are craters everywhere.
People keep trying to find "reasons" why "the advance is so slow". It's not slow except in people's minds. There are statistics from war to war on what is fast, what is slow. It's all over the place depending on the war. Most of the people commenting have no clue on these matters, so they need to simply shut up and watch.
Another point I've brought up before: how many Russian casualties? How many are LDR rather than Russian? No one knows. The LDR daily reports show 3-10 killed per day and another X wounded, maybe 10-20 total out of action, in comparison to at least 20 Ukrainians killed (and LDR doesn't report Ukrainian wounded, they just say "destroyed"). There are zero Russian figures other than the 498 reported two months ago. My guess is the Russians are hanging back and letting the LDR (and Chechens) do the front line work while the Russians run the tanks and the artillery in the read. And now that the Russians have consolidated their forces and aren't running around all over Ukraine getting their advance units ambushed on occasion, my guess is their casualty rate is lower than it was before.
But the point is that without a knowledge of actual numbers of casualties or captured, no one can say whether there are "acceptable losses". And it's that concept - and what is actually being accomplished - that determines whether the operation is "not working" or not. Without knowledge of the plan and without knowledge of the losses, no one is in a position to say whether the plan is working or not or whether it is "slow" or not.
So everyone who is dredging up this stuff is just blowing smoke out their ass. It's pure speculation.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2022 20:26 utc | 91
Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 26 2022 20:08 utc | 89
Nice article. Thanks.
If the reporting from the NY Times a few weeks ago is correct (and that is always a 50/50 proposition),
50/50? LOL.
I admittedly don't know the terrain in Kiev, 300 bridges? That's a lot of bridges. Is there a city anywhere on the planet that has 300 bridges within it?
That smells funny to me.
Posted by: David F | May 26 2022 20:33 utc | 92
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 19:45 utc | 85
"but I do think regular forces have taken a lot of unnecessary losses due to lack of small drone defense"
I call bullshit. Provide figures on both Russian and LDR casualties and the cause of said casualties and the actual number of drones available to Russian and LDR forces. If you can't do that, or a statement from a serving Russian officer in the operation that this is the case, this is blowing smoke.
We do not know anything of the kind. No one does except 1) Russian military, and 2) possibly US military intelligence, and 3) maybe Ukrainian military intelligence.
The only reality is the reported Ukrainian confirmed kills and destroyed equipment from the Russian MoD briefings and the daily LDR report. Everything - literally everything - else is pure speculation on the progress of the SMO.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2022 20:36 utc | 93
@ Peter AU1 85
War changes everything. As Mike Tyson says, everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth.
For UAS (Unmanned Air Systems) (NOT drones), the thought of firing missiles from them was considered at the edge of real operations when 2nd Iraq war started in 2003. By 2011 they were part of the overall force structure, and heavily relied upon. Things change.
What I see as the main deficit to Russia forces is the lack of larger UAS for attack purposes, after seeing their use in other theaters.
Another area is the low use of attack helicopters. Russia has them in the air force, where US has them in the Army. This creates a big disconnect for immediate ground support, and for key troop movements.
However, Russian manpads are far superior to US Stinger, so they are planning as though they are fighting against themselves, maybe.
But I see lots of scenarios, like the failed river crossing last week, where an integrated attack helicopter unit would have paid large dividends.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 26 2022 20:38 utc | 94
'Enriched' plutonium
Plutonium does not come in unenriched/enriched flavors. All plutonium isotopes are already highly-fissile. Plutonium-239 used in weapons isn't even the most fissile one, it's just the most common one produced in plutonium production reactors.
Zaporozhye uranium and plutonium
This would be in spent, un-reprocessed reactor fuel rods currently in cooling ponds or dry cask storage, and likely what the IAEA was referring to. There would be little legitimate reason to have stocks of 'pure' enriched uranium or plutonium at Zaporozhye. Ukraine has large deposits of uranium, but was not known to have any enrichment capability - they buy all their reactor fuel from someone else and (previously) sent it all back to Russia for reprocessing.
Ukraine and weapons-grade plutonium and tritium
Ukraine wasn't known to have any dedicated plutonium or tritium production reactors (that use highly-enriched uranium and special rods as feedstock), nor do they have any processing facilities to extract weapons-grade plutonium from such production reactors (Russia and the U.S. have had these for decades). Russia suggested that Ukraine indeed had active plans to produce nuclear weapons, and that they had already obtained enough weapons-grade plutonium directly from the U.S. for building something like six or eight thermonuclear warheads. The engineering work was being done in Kharkiv with some activity at Zaporozhye. 'Evidence' such as documentation was either transferred to Lvov or destroyed in February to hide the illegal activity from the world. This covert nuclear weapons program was suspected by Russia, but we'll probably never know what led them to that conclusion. Short of incriminating documentation or discovery of a few hundred kilograms of 'unregistered' weapons-grade plutonium, Ukraine and the U.S. can simply deny any such weapons program ever existed. Ukraine has been preparing public opinion for years now trying to justify abandoning its prior denuclearization as specified in the Budapest Memorandum.
Chernobyl
1. Russia suspected the site was used to hide either the unregistered plutonium stocks or hide other nuclear weapons activity amidst the high background radiation of the area.
2. Russia also suggested that Ukraine was trying to produce dirty bomb with highly-radioactive waste at Chernobyl. Dirty bombs don't use a nuclear reaction. They're just a bunch of highly-radioactive junk (could be anything, really) wrapped around a core of conventional explosives. The idea is to cover a target site with enough radioactive bits and dust to render it unusable for decades or centuries, kind of like Chernobyl itself. Cleanup would either be impractical or too time consuming for anyone to bother. Dirty bombs practical use would either be against urban targets in Russia/Luhansk/Donetsk or used for scorched-earth tactics against lost strategic sites during a Ukrainian retreat (power plants, transportation hubs, refineries, mines, industrial sites).
The above is my caveman understanding of the issues - bar fights with nuclear physicists or other conspiracy nuts always welcome here.
Pertinent article: US May Have Assisted Ukraine In Its Efforts To Develop Nuclear Weapons: Report (Republicworld.com March, 2022)
Posted by: PavewayIV | May 26 2022 20:39 utc | 95
Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2022 20:36 utc | 93
Provide figures to prove yourself correct.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 20:40 utc | 96
RHs @ 87.
You are absolutely correct. I know realize that they are armchair generals in Russia or maybe worse; just traitors. Russia is full of them. China has the luxury of not having them internally.
The columns of tanks to Kiev was clearly a divergence, for I do remember the panic in Kiev. But when Russia withdrew it was all about Russia losing. It is just the usual MSM bullshit.
Everyday the Russian mod tells you what is happening, and if some believe that they are lying; please say so, instead of backing up your wants with quasi 'experts'. Through all the lies that Kiev have been trained to do, you see them now talking about the fall of the Donbass.
You now hear uncle Tom Austin talking about Ukraine deciding for themselves if they want to negotiate. 2 weeks ago he said " we intend to reduce Russia". So many more inconsistencies that I can point to but what is the use?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 26 2022 20:40 utc | 96
"Provide figures to prove yourself correct."
Oh, here we go.
I didn't specify any figures. I don't need any figures. I'm saying YOU don't have any figures. Without that, your statements about deficiencies in the SMO are pure speculation.
I've been reading your posts for weeks now. You make assertions about things no one else knows as far as I can tell. With zero data to back them up. Strangely, all those statements appear to be reflecting a negative assessment of the SMO. Why is that?
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2022 20:44 utc | 99
If we look at the positions of the allies and the Ukrainians as described by the youtube channel of Ukraine Military Summary (UMS) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA/videos recommended by b. we can see that their descriptions are not at all consistent from one day to another. These are not details but major anomalies like the one I analyze on the maps of 05/25 and 05/26.
On 05/25, UMS makes a big deal about a cauldron forming around Lysychansk with, it says, 15,000 Ukrainian troops threatened. We can see the summary of the respective positions at 11:23. In the northwest, the allies are clearly threatening Siversk, and in the southeast, the Ukrainian-controlled town of Zolote is already heavily hemmed in, with no possible escape routes, as is Hirske. The city of Lysychansk has only a small country road to evacuate its 10 to 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers. UMS uses the case of this cauldron to expose its own views on an ongoing power struggle between Z and his No. 2 in the military hierarchy, especially in terms of retreating troops at risk of encirclement and the race for the Presidency of Ukraine, without a single source cited.
On 26/05, this cauldron is passed under silence but on the occasion of the description of another Russian offensive in progress, the map of this same region is briefly visible at point 14:51 and it is totally different: Zolote and Hirske are just two frontline towns and their rear are quite free while the allied troops are far from threatening Silversk. The troops of the city of Lysysychansk have all possibilities of movement. The whole argument of the 25th about a possible power struggle falls apart and the author no longer makes the slightest reference to it. On the other hand, he talks about the situation in Transnistria, where he misinterprets some basic points about international relations. Like the day before, none of this is sourced.
There are other cases if you bother to look at the maps from one day to the next. I took this one because it is the most obvious.
Posted by: John V. Doe | May 26 2022 20:48 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The absolute arrogant belief that “Russia is Bad, and the West is Good” has led the West down a dark path of no return in Ukraine.
This will be hard for those hypnotized by Western media to understand but thinking of Russia as the “good guys” in the Ukraine conflict will bring a lot of clarity to the situation.
Here https://abrahamstein.substack.com/p/russia-is-saving-the-world-america
Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 26 2022 12:55 utc | 1