Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 23, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-72

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on May 23, 2022 at 14:05 UTC | Permalink

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Big news on the front and also on Polish/Ukraine confederation. https://youtu.be/-o8zOAQveNM

Posted by: Leaf | May 23 2022 21:34 utc | 101

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 23 2022 21:23 utc | 97
"training that US officials believe is helping Ukraine hold off the Kremlin now."

Yeah, right - we can certainly see that in Donbass right now /s

As for the others: a coup in Iran is not a guerrilla war; the Bay of Pigs invasion was a disaster; I don't know the history the Laos operation but then, guess what, Vietnam fell; and the Afghan operation depended on - what did I say? - Afghans being born with AK-47's in their cribs.

None of which applies to Ukraine.

Counterinsurgency can only work when the government is trusted by the populace, and the military involved know the language and the culture. That didn't apply in Afghanistan for the US. It does apply for Russia in Ukraine.

So Ritter is right - that's not going to work against Russia despite the neocon and CIA wet dreams.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 21:35 utc | 102

"Belloq" is the spelling of the name of one of the villains in the movie "Raiders of the Lost Ark". I suspect this was Hollywood's way of getting back at the long-dead poet and essayist Belloc for writings that some considered anti-Semitic.

In fact, that whole movie can be taken as an allegory about the making of the atom bomb, which the moviemakers considered a Jewish invention that the American state wrongfully appropriated.

Posted by: Lysias | May 23 2022 21:41 utc | 103

How does Iran, Occupied Palestine and their issues intersect with what's happening in Ukraine? Alastair Crooke tries to provide an answer in his review of the many mistakes made since the Iranian Revolution and Zionist inflexibility. Here's the overall premise of Crooke's essay:

"The Structural scaffolding was first put into place in the early 1990s. But that structure was erected on false premises and lazy misconceptions. Its flaws, however, were papered over for nearly two decades; but now changes to the overall regional paradigm mean that the scaffolding is reversing itself: it no longer contains latent conflicts, but is funnelling us headlong toward them.

"To understand the double helix at the centre of the Middle East, pulling us into its swirling sink-hole, we must first address the structure of Israel’s relationship with Iran and the Palestinians, and see how that has come to lock us into dynamics which, as matters stand, threaten to break the fetters holding containment in place."

We've already discussed why the Zionists support the Ukrainian Nazis which has set the stage for the "scaffolding" to reverse, since it's now very unlikely that Russia will try to intercede in the Palestinian's determination to defend al-Aqsa from another Zionist settler invasion, which will likely see a "Red Pill" defensive assault occur that's essentially a "a four-front war"--Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine with Iraq also very likely. Occupied Palestine has thus made itself into a cauldron through its Genocidal Colonialism.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23 2022 21:49 utc | 104

Guantanamo? Kowloon and New Territories? (Hong Kong Island was ceded, not leased).

Posted by: Blissex | May 23 2022 21:09 utc | 92


The Gitmo naval base is Cuban sovereign territory per 1903 treaty; it's just that the USA has the right/option to renew its lease in perpetuity.

Kowloon/New Territories were British-administered per 99-year lease but were not part of the UK in the way that, for instance, parts of Algeria had been départements of France (and Martinique still is).

Ultimately it all boils down to what the following language in Article 5 of the NATO Charter means: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all"; namely, what constitutes "an armed attack" against a member state. Would, for instance, an attack on Gitmo or any of our other 800 or so lovely military bases suffice? Does attacking a de jure or de facto colony of a member state suffice? Does the attack have to occur on integral state territory? (And remember, embassies in foreign countries count as "integral state territory.) Also, for that matter, what constitutes "armed attack"? Does a single Molotov cocktail suffice?

Little if any of this has actually ever been tested.

Posted by: malenkov | May 23 2022 21:51 utc | 105

Comment from https://t.me/polkovnik_hodarenok Telegram channel on Polish MiG-29 parts supplied to Ukraine...

Poland handed over spare parts and ammunition for MiG-29 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What can I say, now one and a half fighters will fly over the airfield and shoot at the camera. In general, the affairs of the Ukrainian Air Force are bad.

Most of the military airfields were destroyed in the first two days of the NWO. Then they finished off the remains, where the planes were relocated.

Mirgorod, Zhuliany, Kulbakino - that's it. These runways no longer exist. After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine could not follow them, now the possibilities are completely lost.

The Poles want to divert the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the war as long as possible, so they are trying to make their contribution. The problem is that the skies of Ukraine are patrolled by Su-35s and Su-57s, and the old MiGs cannot compete with these machines.

The 29th shines on the radar screens like a Christmas tree. Its EPR is monstrous, and it is understandable - when it was designed, they did not know about stealth technologies. More precisely, they knew, but remained silent.

According to some reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have approximately 5 such aircraft left. So much even to create a new "ghost of Kyiv" is not enough.

#Poland #Aviation #MiG29

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 21:54 utc | 106

And, even if everyone agrees that there has been an armed attack, all that Article 5 calls on member states to do is to take what a member state considers appropriate action.

Posted by: Lysias | May 23 2022 21:56 utc | 107

karlof1 | May 23 2022 15:43 utc | 11

What do you use to translated from Russian? An extension I just downloaded from -gasp- the Google App Store, does not do it.

Posted by: donten | May 23 2022 22:01 utc | 108

@Lysias | May 23 2022 21:56 utc | 107

"And, even if everyone agrees that there has been an armed attack, all that Article 5 calls on member states to do is to take what a member state considers appropriate action."

Do you suppose "buy another round and some popcorn" would suffice?

Posted by: the pessimist | May 23 2022 22:02 utc | 109

And, even if everyone agrees that there has been an armed attack, all that Article 5 calls on member states to do is to take what a member state considers appropriate action.

Posted by: Lysias | May 23 2022 21:56 utc | 107


Good point. However, it should be noted that the USA has led, and no doubt will continue to lead, its "fellow NATO members" by the nose on such matters. Case in point: The only time Article 5 has been invoked was after the 9/11 attack, the "armed" nature of which consisted of commercial airlines and box cutters; and there was little attempt to identify the attackers beyond the claims made by the USA.

Posted by: malenkov | May 23 2022 22:08 utc | 110

@ Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 21:29 utc | 98

It's good to hear that from you. I have an irrational fondness for SR, based on his uncanny resemblance (even in his manner of speech) to a dear departed brother. People shouldn't ever rely on impressions such as the following -- SR seems fundamentally moral to me, like my brother. Anyone who somehow got cursed with a strong moral compass in this day and age is likely to feel at wit's end, from time to time. SR taped a brief caution for Finland, awhile back, which had no effect on anyone despite his foolish shouting. Then again, the effect of his Finland message was destined to be null, had SR been mild as a sleep therapist.

My interpretation is that SR, working from a lonely redoubt called compassion, gets exhausted and half-crazy from time to time. Human beings have been noted for such behavior.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 23 2022 22:11 utc | 111

I again relink to this article, "How a century of political violence in Ukraine is linked to the atrocities of today", which I doubt was read very widely the first time I posted it. It's here that you'll learn the Nazi-tendencies of those inhabiting what's now Western Ukraine go back to WW1. Here's an excerpt:

People from Galicia who did not want to call themselves Ukrainians, as the Austrian authorities insisted, and continued to use the name ‘Rusyns’, were arrested and incarcerated in two places – in a garrison fortress in Terezin and in a valley near Graz, the capital of Styria. While the prisoners in Terezin were held in the vaults and dungeons of the fortress, with the support of local Czechs, the concentration camp later known as Thalerhof was little more than a bare field fenced in with barbed wire.

Today, most of Galicia is in Western Ukraine and the largest city is Lviv, which was known as Lemberg by the Austrians and Lvov by the Soviets and Polish.

The initial prisoners were brought there in September of 1915, and the first barracks began to be built only at the beginning of the following year. Prior to that, the people were forced to lie in the open in the rain and cold. According to US Congressman Joseph McCormick, the prisoners were often beaten and tortured. (Terrorism in Bohemia; Medill McCormick Gets Details of Austrian Cruelty. ‘New York Times’, December 16, 1917)

And that just begins the documentation of some of the worst acts of depravity ever recorded by the ancestors of today's UkroNazis.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23 2022 22:11 utc | 112

This story is being reported by various odd Web sites, inclluding Ukrainian sites, quoting the German newspaper Bild. Maybe b or someone could check that out, as Google search does not show a Bild article... If true, however, so much for those Marder infantry fighting vehicles Germany promised to Ukraine...

German Government Blocking Arms Supplies To Ukraine - Media
https://ukranews.com/en/news/858703-german-government-blocking-arms-supplies-to-ukraine-media

The Federal Government, headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has been blocking exports of up to 100 Marder infantry fighting vehicles manufactured by Rheinmetall to Ukraine for more than a month. This is stated in the message of the Bild edition on Monday, May 23.

"The fake game of the Scholz government about the alleged impossibility of supplying Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine is entering a new round," the edition points out.

An internal Ministry of Defence letter seen by Bild said the first of 100 usable infantry fighting vehicles could have been repaired within six weeks.

This means that if the Federal Government had already approved the declaration of intent made by Rheinmetall and the Ukrainian government in March, the first vehicles could have been in Ukraine for several weeks and helped defend themselves against the Russian army: "Since April 22, the company's application has finally been submitted to the Federal Security Council (BSR). But the Federal Government is blocking it. Even a month later, it never gave the group permission to export the first infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine," writes Bild.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 22:13 utc | 113

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 23 2022 22:11 utc | 111

I've noted that Ritter frequently looks tired in his videos. He's been doing interviews non-stop, probably several times a day, plus producing his own videos for his Telegram channel (albeit infrequently.) I suspect he needs to step back and regroup. I suspect we all should.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 22:16 utc | 114

donten @108--

I use Microsoft Edge as the browser I view foreign language articles since it has an in-built machine translator. I'm about to install the Yandex browser which people tell me provides better, more accurate translations. The Yandex search engine page includes a translator, but I very rarely use it.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23 2022 22:16 utc | 115

Martyanov on his slight disagreement with Pepe Escobar (which as someone noted above, Pepe corrected):

Meanwhile, I begin to elaborate in very small portions about my technical disagreement with Pepe regarding 404 being able to raise any army in the Western Ukraine. Today is a small piece of reasons:

1. 404 is now in Nth mobilization and the quality of personnel, many of them from Western Ukraine declined dramatically, because best of the best have been physically annihilated and, after two major waves of immigration--one to Russia, but even larger stream to Europe, Ukraine simply doesn't have mobilization base enough to assemble, let alone arm, any serious military force. Hence Zelensky's obvious lie about the size of VSU. But even if to assume that he doesn't lie, one has to admit Russian, dramatically numerically inferior, forces are doing a very good job of annihilating the Ukrainian military. Otherwise, how can one explain a huge number of those young men from Western Ukraine who are flooding Europe today and are in no hurry to be sent to the front. Just think about it:

More than 6.4 million people have fled Ukraine since the fighting broke out, according to UN data. The vast majority of them, nearly 3.5 million, went to neighboring Poland. Romania and Russia became two other major destinations for Ukrainian refugees, with around 900,000 people going into each country.

So, considering realistic population of Ukraine numbering now 25-27 million, with 7 million (much less now) living in the Western Ukraine, unless one wants to draft 12-13 year boys (I wouldn't put this past Kiev regime), the prospects of raising a proper, combat capable that is, new army are rather bleak.

2. Let's not forget also that we live in 2022 and this is how new VSU recruits get acquainted with modern war precisely in the areas (this one is in Desna North of Kiev) where many loyalists reside. These are Desna barracks with very little left of new recruits and this was just a couple-three 3M14 Kalibrs a couple of days ago.

And, of course, who can forget Yavorsky barracks filled with all those "fighters" from around the world who came to hunt themselves some Rooskies. Their "residence", which was blown to smithereens together with hundreds of them, was precisely in the Western Ukraine.

So, just these two, out of many purely technical considerations, are already enough to start questioning REAL mobilization and military-industrial capabilities of 404, which were degraded dramatically. But knowing Poland, one has to keep an eye on Warsaw's actions, but then again, there is a reason Russia uses only small percentage of her capabilities in Ukraine and keeps most of them in reserve. Just in case Poland decides to do stupid things, which, judging by Morawecki's escapade towards Norway, tells us that nothing could be excluded when speaking about Warsaw and its curators in D.C.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 22:32 utc | 116

In fact, that whole movie ["Raiders"] can be taken as an allegory about the making of the atom bomb, which the moviemakers considered a Jewish invention that the American state wrongfully appropriated.
Posted by: Lysias | May 23 2022 21:41 utc | 103

Popular Mythology -- Like modern-day anthropology, worth a university department full of semiotic signal-decoders. John Lennon once said The Beatles were doing better than Jesus Christ. James Fenimore Cooper's Natty Bumppo (though largely, mercifully forgotten today) is more central to USA's self-image than that fellow whose face appears on the dollar bill.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 23 2022 22:33 utc | 117

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23 2022 21:49 utc | 104

""To understand the double helix at the centre of the Middle East, pulling us into its swirling sink-hole, we must first address the structure of Israel’s relationship with Iran and the Palestinians, and see how that has come to lock us into dynamics which, as matters stand, threaten to break the fetters holding containment in place."

We've already discussed why the Zionists support the Ukrainian Nazis which has set the stage for the "scaffolding" to reverse, since it's now very unlikely that Russia will try to intercede in the Palestinian's determination to defend al-Aqsa from another Zionist settler invasion, which will likely see a "Red Pill" defensive assault occur that's essentially a "a four-front war"--Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine with Iraq also very likely. Occupied Palestine has thus made itself into a cauldron through its Genocidal Colonialism."

Fascinating....
(But couldn't understand a word!)


Posted by: Scorpion | May 23 2022 22:35 utc | 118

Martyanov on Larry Johnson's rebuttal to Ritter and his own comments...

Larry Wrote An Excellent Counter-Argument To...

... Scott Ritter and it also fits well with what I posted today just below. It is about this $40 billion "aid" package to Ukraine. Larry makes an excellent point:

Money may make the world go around but it does not magically produce trained, enthusiastic troops willing and capable of using such weapons. During my time at the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism, I was the Deputy Director for the Anti-Terrorism Assistance Training Program (ATAP). We discovered that no matter how much money the United States wanted to supply to a specific country to combat terrorism we reached a saturation point. We learned that you reach a point where there are no more people to train or the recipients of the training could not absorb the support. Ukraine’s problem right now is not a lack of equipment. The had combat aircraft, helicopters, tanks, artillery and drones. Russia destroyed a significant amount of that materiel and killed the soldiers and pilots who were trained to operate those systems. Training replacements–competent replacements–can not be accomplished in a one or two day seminar. Training a pilot or an artillery crew, for example, requires weeks and, in some circumstances, months of instruction before the trainees are ready to go to battle.

Moreover, here is the thing which Scott Ritter seems to not-understand, as Larry notes:

Scott also asserts that intelligence sharing gives the Ukrainians an edge. When you provide intelligence on Russian troop movements, locations or plans, there is an assumption that the recipients of that intelligence will be able to do something to hurt the Russians. How did that work out in Mariupol? How about fending off the Russian missile attack in Desna. In my view, sharing intelligence with Ukraine is an effort in futility. Am empty gesture that will not change anything on the ground.

And Ritter is obviously misinformed about Russia's recon and targeting capabilities. Not only they are on par with those of the US, but Russian means of counter-measures ranging from jamming or "spoofing" radar satellites, or jamming signint are the best in the world. There are NO "game-changers" for NATO in Ukraine, not to mention the fact that Pentagon never experienced anything of this nature and judging by steady annihilation of VSU completely misinterpreted Russia's aims and capabilities involved, not to mention the fact that de facto direct Pentagon's Command and Control of VSU failed miserably and that doesn't reflect well on the US, especially after humiliating debacle in Afghanistan. In general, read Larry excellent piece.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 22:36 utc | 119

I think that b made a huge mistake in claiming that this thread is "Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ..."

Wrong!

It should be "Only news & views related to Scott Ritter ..."

I personal met with Major Ritter a few months prior to the start of Iraq War-II. The meeting was brief, but I came to regard him as almost a friend. For the next two or four months I carried out a furious local campaign against the obviously on-coming absurd war. Every day for about four hours in the twilight I would hold up picket signs in front of the court house. Or I would pace the entire downtown tearing up pro-war bulletins on poles, and tearing down 'yellow ribbons, some difficult to reach. And putting up my own anti-war bulletins. Sometime I would be followed by a police officer who would tear down my anti-war bulletins, but I just kept going. The insane war was perpetrated any way. I have not protested much since. Burned out.

Some people accept Ritter, and some view him darkly. I am fervently pro-Ritter, and the anti-Ritter crowd can just shove it up where the sun don't shine.

All my inputs are indicating that Russia will control all of 'the Ukraine' about by July. At that point the psyop war that Ritter claims the Russians are losing will simply fade away.

I do not agree with Major Ritter on everything. He believes the sacred Constitution is right up there almost with Jesus. I have sadly come to where I regard it as the most sophisticated instrument of fascism ever devised. Ask any American Indian.

--RKJoyce--

Posted by: blues | May 23 2022 22:37 utc | 120

>>>>: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 17:54 utc | 35
I think there is a very simple reason for Ritter's change of direction. He now feels totally out of his depth as the Russians are doing things he was never taught about. For instance, from that presentation on operational art?

Operational Art allows a smaller, but better trained and skillfully (sic) led force guided by sound strategy to defeat quickly and decisively a much stronger force.

Russian forces in Donbas are smaller, better trained and more skilfully led and also better equipped than the Ukrainian forces they are fighting. But they are not delivering on the "defeat quickly and decisively a much stronger force". Why? Because that's not what the Russian planners want to happen.

Putin talked about his objectives of de-Nazification and de-militarisation and everyone thought it meant kill all the Nazis and destroy the military, but I think it actually involves making Nazism and militarism among Ukrainians so unappetizing that they go in another direction, just as Germany largely did after their defeat in 1945.
The problem in Germany was that the western Allies stopped their de-Nazification program and re-militarized West Germany too soon. Although the Soviets were happy to recruit officials into their service in East Germany.
To deliver on this, the Russian Army needs to change Ukrainian attitudes by delivering a victory for Russia but one were Ukrainians can feel they did everything they could to prevent it, and that the US and NATO failed them by not sending in armies to support Ukraine.

Lvov and western Ukraine is of no interest to Russia, so this really only applies in the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine that are currently pro-Ukraine that Russia wants to strip awt from Ukraine.
BTW:
1. Wouldn't surprise me if it turned out Andrei Martyanov was part of a Russian military deception operation.
2. Videos of LNR/DNR forces complaining are part of another military deception operation to keep US, UK and NATO believing that "one last push" will bring down the Russian Army. Same with all the claims that Russia is running out of weapons and soldiers, etc.
The Russian Army seems to be doing things that western armies would never dream of doing.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 23 2022 22:39 utc | 121

RK- Could yuo hunt down that pic of MH 17 febuary shot of a similar serial number- I have tries very hard- new to telegram, Thaxs

Posted by: col from OZ | May 23 2022 22:39 utc | 122

Article 5 has already been tested.

In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983. Russia's Medvedev stated the act was justification for war, but Russian would not act, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-prime-minister-dmitry-medvedev-says-turkey-s-downing-of-su24-gave-grounds-for-war-a6767011.html. NATO did not act, so no article 5 from NATO.

In 2012 a Turkish jet was shot down over Syria, https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkey-reports-warplane-missing-after-flying-near-syrian-border/. Turkey declared Article 5, but No article 5 from NATO.

Maybe the timing wasn't right back then for NATO. I don't see that being the case. What this shows is NATO is a force projection for the US. It will keep expanding up to the last European.

Posted by: Goran | May 23 2022 22:42 utc | 123

Martyanov's "talking head" for today...

An Important Headline (Austin about VSU, some facts from the front, larger geopolitical issues. ISR, targeting.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BKT_32HcCg

I further recommend yet again his Operational Art and "Surprise, Not!" videos to learn how military operations are planned:

Operational Art 1 Note: I posted above in my Ritter analysis post the link to the documents he uses in this video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaZGb5vnzkg

Surprise, not!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgIgXjSnCJM

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 22:43 utc | 124

The Ukrainian Air Force is still operational to some extent but it seems to lose aircraft on a regular basis.
So today(23/05/22),

Russian air defence forces shot down 3 Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force overnight, including 2 near Kiselevka, Kherson Region, and 1 over Pavlograd, Kharkov Region.

Day before yesterday (21/05/22),
Also, 1 Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft have been shot down by fighter aircraft during an aerial battle near Belitskoe, Donetsk Region.

At least the Ukrainians are preserving what remains of the air force by not launching any mass attacks.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 23 2022 22:53 utc | 125

Ghost Ship 125

Anyone, how is it possible for the UAF to fly any aircraft in that airspace and where are they flying from that hasn't been destroyed (and if so why not destroyed)

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 22:57 utc | 126

Comment from Army_Russia Telegram channel... Russia has developed a "wearable anti-drone radar" for Russian soldiers...
https://t.me/Army_Russia/26169

Portable radar to search for mini-drones created in Russia

Ruselectronics holding (part of Rostec) has developed a compact multifunctional radar to protect critical facilities.

The device can detect miniature drones - including those flying a few meters above the ground - at a distance of more than a kilometer.

Radar uses the Doppler effect and signal processing from moving parts of aircraft. By rotating the propellers, it even finds inconspicuous multicopters hovering motionless above the ground, and detects a moving car for 10 kilometers.

“The radar weighs only five kilograms and can be used as a wearable device,” the Rostec press service said.

The Rybinsk Instrument Making Plant is engaged in the creation and production of a new radar.

The main task of the new radar station is to search for low-flying small air targets and other threats, such as ground-based robotic systems. The radar can simultaneously track up to 32 targets, and also work in conjunction with other radar monitoring systems. To date, the station has already passed preliminary tests,” said Andrey Komogortsev, General Director of the RZP.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:03 utc | 127

Shoot me if I'm stating something you all know but Telegram has a built in translator: select text -> right click -> translate

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 23 2022 23:05 utc | 128

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 22:57 utc | 126

As mentioned before, Ukraine probably had some planes in storage. Using parts from damaged planes, they refit and place them back into service. Russia hit most airfields, but Ukraine may also be using civilian airfields Russia did not hit. I also noted the Polish supply of MiG parts earlier. As long as some mechanics and parts exist, there will be a couple functional Ukrainian aircraft. Russia can't see and hit every single one until they pop up.

In short, it's pretty much irrelevant. Probably 95-99% of Ukraine's Air Force has been destroyed. Russia hits them on the ground when they see them, and the Russian Air Force takes care of the rest.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:08 utc | 129

Here's an outstanding explanation of asking the question how do you end this conflict. Totally aligned with what I think Scott Ritter was trying to say.

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | May 23 2022 23:09 utc | 130

JB #38

Can someone explain why the analysis of S Ritter (before, now and in the future) are SO important that such a storm has arisen? He is an analyst with standindg and his views are interesting and relevant. That does not mean that he is (always) right, because who is always right. Why so much emotion over forecasts - no one knows the future, and war has a trillion moving parts. Is it really so significant that S Ritter believes that Russia will "win"? Will Russia win, or lose, depending on his analysis? Can we stick to developments on the battleground and internationally, on things our lives depend on.

I suggest there is a desperate effort on foot to cancel Ritter.
He is a chemical/biological weapons expert. There are dozens of USA Pentagon CBW labs in Ukraine.
The USA Pentagon contracts are managed by a company that Hunter Biden is a director.

The activities at these laboratories appear to be in violation of Human Righta and International Covenants and law.

The CBW revelations from the evidence gathered by Donetsk liberators and their Russian supporters are being publicised now.

Hence the intense move to damage Ritter and silence him. He is a fair commentator and obviously loves to talk and pontificate as this time and circumstance gives him cache and relevance. He is mostly informative, challenging and frustratingly repetitive. More strength to his arm for daring to tackle the beast in a direct and capable form. He is human, not yet perfect.

The constant Ritter smash attacks on this blog can be seen to be part of the organised demolition of his reputation PLUS the distraction ploys to weaken this blog.

"Can we stick to developments on the battleground and internationally, on things our lives depend on." Mostly we do. I am happy to consider Ritter's analysis and post links occasionally if I think they are of interest, ditto anything relevant at Unz or ant-speigel or even the NYT that is always getting a run here as trigger for discussion. To hell with the cancel culture.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23 2022 23:09 utc | 131

Seen so many videos of Ukrainian tanks being blown up on Telegram in the last few days, it's a wonder they even have the Polish tanks left...

Saw a video yesterday of two tanks on a road. There's an explosion on the road, then both tanks start heading for the trees along the road to hide. One of them gets in the tree line, then gets hit. It seems to back up, knocks over a couple of trees, then gets hung on another tree. The crew bails out and starts running. The other tank squeezes past it and takes off down the road at top speed, apparently abandoning the crew of the first tank. A total circus. LOL

Saw another one with two tanks in a residential area. Apparently one of them had just rolled out and fired, then rolled back in to hide beside a house. Didn't help. It got hit. Apparently this is a consistent tactic of the Ukrainians - hide next to houses, roll out and fire a salvo, then run back and hide again. But tanks just don't hide well unless they've under some sort of construction like a garage. Except then there's the problem of the tracks which expose their position - drones are looking for that. Follow the tracks, find the tank wherever it is, then hit it. Turkey shoot.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:19 utc | 132

Patrick Lancaster is a mad man. Check out his latest video reporting 400 metres away from the frontline wearing blue jeans and a bright red shirt. Madness!

Posted by: vato | May 23 2022 23:23 utc | 133

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23 2022 23:09 utc | 131
"The constant Ritter smash attacks on this blog can be seen to be part of the organised demolition of his reputation PLUS the distraction ploys to weaken this blog."

WTF? Are you accusing me of trying to destroy Ritter's reputation and weaken this blog? I haven't seen any of that from anyone here or elsewhere. Not even Lira goes that far, although he did accuse Ritter of being untrustworthy. Martyanov and Johnson and Amarynth at The Saker have not done any such thing, not have I.

You can stuff that accusation up your ass.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:24 utc | 134

Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:08 utc | 129

Thanks but with RF air superiority, 24/7 AWACS, ground stations and satellites, any UAF aircraft take off location would be known in seconds and flat seconds later. It makes no sense.

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 23:27 utc | 135

Re: Posted by: Opport Knocks | May 23 2022 17:40 utc | 30


The mass surrender at Azovstal can shortly after the reported phone call between Austin and Shoigu. Perhaps there was a deal made, a peaceful and orderly surrender in exchange for not releasing the names of foreign nationals.

If there was a deal made it was an incredibly stupid decision to do so.

The Russians apparently made the same deals in regards to Western forces in 2014 in regards to Debaltsevo - what did that achieve?!?

It achieved LESS THAN NOTHING.

Posted by: Julian | May 23 2022 23:37 utc | 136

re: Ritter

Oh the high drama... or not. People can disagree, it's healthy as long as the intentions are genuine. There's just too few English speaking commentators outside the bubble, that's the real problem.

The observation that VSU is receiving unlimited quantities of basic supplies is correct. Not sure why Ritter considers this a novelty by the way, except maybe in contrast to his earlier analysis, which now can be seen was optimistic.

As already pointed out 1000 times by everyone, ability (or inability) to turn this into "success" depends equally on the people. Given what we have seen of the klepto-fascist proxy regime in Kiev, a limited number of fanatics are down for it, but mostly they get fighters to fight by threatening them. This only goes so far.

They will however have means to do some spectacularly dangerous state sponsored terrorism (and already did pre invasion, which was kindof the whole point). Perpetuating this when is the usual MO for the CIA, when actual success eludes them. Not the first time, not the first place, that this is happening.

Posted by: ptb | May 23 2022 23:37 utc | 137

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 23:27 utc | 135

That's what's happening. Except that strike targets are prioritised, so it's not certain a strike package would be available for any given random pop-up target. And again, the Air Force can take down any new target if it's in the vicinity.

Ukraine is a big place. You can't hit everything instantly all the time. Otherwise this war would be over by now.

A military operation doesn't get excited about every random enemy element which in the end has next to no effect on the operational plan.

Martyanov would say, if you think you can do better, apply to the Russian General Staff.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:39 utc | 138

People talking rumors about Polish troops near Pavlograd... Well...
https://t.me/milinfolive/83896

Chairman of the Dnepropetrovsk Regional State Administration Valentin Reznichenko confirmed the missile attacks on the cities of Pavlograd and Sinelnikovo. According to him, a total of 4 rocket hits were inflicted on the railway infrastructure. The objects were seriously damaged.

"We have four evening "arrivals" at once. Rockets hit the railway infrastructure in the Pavlogradsky and Sinelnikovsky districts. There is serious damage to the railway track and the contact network. It is not yet clear when we will resume movement." - this is how a Ukrainian official comments on the strikes.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:43 utc | 139

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:39 utc | 138

Thanks again, no I won't be applying to the RF General Staff but their propaganda department may need a little boost, it is now as flaky as the West's.

Trusting pro RF in situ reports and 24 ct assessment by "proven" analysts is no longer sensible given the departure from reality in reports from both sides.

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 23:52 utc | 140

Somewhat interesting comment by Rybar Telegram channel on the issue of Polish troops in Ukraine...

We watched with interest how the “battle for intelligence information” broke out on the expanses of Russian Telegram channels. One channel accuses the other of stealing and squandering very important information.

We are talking about the publication of information about the arrival of two Polish battalions with "rapiers" and armored vehicles in Pavlograd, Dnepropetrovsk region. And this allegedly confirms the intention of the Poles to fight in mortal combat in the Donbass with sworn Russian enemies on the Avdeevka front.

We will keep silent about the value and timeliness of publishing such information: we know perfectly well who is behind the channel accused of deliberately leaking it. And how is the publication of such "exclusives" going on?

Let's face it: if mass reports about the death of Poles on the front line suddenly start coming from Avdievsky (or any other front), social tensions in Poland itself will reach a climax (our friend Warsaw Mermaid @pl_syrenka, who watches the entire star from the outskirts of Krakow, will not let you lie) .

Therefore, we would not rush to conclusions (https://t.me/epoddubny/10844) that the Poles will directly fight en masse for the Ukrainians. This is such a double-edged sword: it will not boomerang on the Polish leadership only in the event of stunning successes of the Poles on the battlefield.

As a kind of “buffer”, the Psheks, of course, are used: well, they will put up these newly mobilized and voluntarily-compulsorily drafted along the borders of western Ukraine, well, they will put them under attack a couple of times in order to coordinate the sending of something else heavy to Ukraine.

And then everything is according to the scenario of creeping expansion under the pretext of an outstretched "hand of fraternal help" to Ukraine.

In the north of Kharkov, the SAS's are operating, the Germans are regularly brought in, the French are on the territory of Nezalezhnaya like unshooted dogs.

But no one is talking about the fact that the British/German/French nations will now fight for Ukraine on the front line, right?
#Poland #Ukraine
@rybar

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:52 utc | 141

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 23:52 utc | 140

Care to cite the "departure from reality"? Or are we just "concern trolling" now? I pretty much was expecting that.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:54 utc | 142

Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:54 utc | 142

"concern trolling"

Priceless

Try not catching all the crap that is thrown by your own side

Posted by: Peter | May 24 2022 0:02 utc | 143

Posted by: Blissex | May 23 2022 20:08 utc | 78

WWII was a long time ago and the US industrial base was vastly different. Contracting arms is not the same as delivering them. I have no doubt that the US has an infinite budget; my doubts are in turning budget into facts on the ground.

WWII also had a lot of Soviets to buy time for that arming up. I don’t think it’s a reasonable analogy outside the minds of WH planners and neocon “strategists”. There is one tank plant, in Lima Ohio. It would be closed already but politicians kept it alive with pork. It currently manufactures 13 Abrams tanks/month. In WWII, automotive plants were retooled for war production. They were also relatively self-sufficient in supplying all the necessary parts for the machines, the machinists, etc. The modern assembly plants probably can’t be easily converted because of robotics, dispersed supply chains, etc. (they could, but I said reasonable timeline)

The US is still living as if it’s myths were reality. It has to have an “operation” to supply inconsequential amounts of baby formula. A real war effort seems beyond our capabilities. Plus it would require individual sacrifice, not a strong suit of modern America.

Posted by: Lex | May 24 2022 0:05 utc | 144

What could go wrong? US troops deploy to "protect US embassy in Kyiv."

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3498343-pentagon-working-on-plans-to-send-troops-to-protect-us-embassy-in-kyiv/

Can anyone say "FALSE FLAG ALERT"?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 24 2022 0:06 utc | 145

Posted by: Peter | May 23 2022 23:52 utc | 140

Are there any examples of the RF's daily sitrep reports using fake statements or being faked otherwise or something?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 24 2022 0:07 utc | 146

RS Hack

Care to cite the "departure from reality"?

6 or 8 suicide (you choose) helio evac missions to Azovstal

Posted by: Peter | May 24 2022 0:08 utc | 147

Just want to say that my rather pessimistic assessment here last week of Russia’s progress in this war was unduly influenced by unreliable sources. It’s difficult to assess exact numbers and details with so much info and propaganda flying around but yeah I think it’s safe to say Russian forces are prevailing over Ukraine.

Posted by: darren price | May 24 2022 0:10 utc | 148

@ Richard Steven Hack

"WTF? Are you accusing me of trying to destroy Ritter's reputation and weaken this blog?"

Well, I will.

There's a lot of ganging up on Ritter here for no reason that makes sense to me. Perhaps you are individually innocent. I don't care to separate out the possible "nuance" any longer. It all seems to boil down to who claims to have the "bigger balls".

Ritter give his analysis based on his experience. That it doesn't match the general consensus of the majority here is just too damn bad.

It totally is congruent with Jamal Thomas who perhaps is more concise in his explanations.

I see American Nukes. Now make me "unsee" them.


Posted by: Fiji Refugee | May 24 2022 0:20 utc | 149

Posted by: Peter | May 24 2022 0:02 utc | 143

Caught one!

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:20 utc | 150

I suggest people go to DefencePolitics Asia. The guy is fair to both sides, explains his sources and apart from execrable pronunciation of Russian/Ukrainian names is a source of the best information.

My quick summary of his summaries is this.

The Russians are starting to make big gains around Izium and this front is getting close to resolved
Donesk and Lukansk are well in hand for Russia
Mariupol cleared, presumably opens of scope for more effort in the south
Kherson is by and large stable and secure
Kharkiv is not good for Russia
Odessa is unresolved
Nikoleyev seems a problem
Supply routes in the west are regularly under attack

Posted by: watcher | May 24 2022 0:24 utc | 151

Reading through some of the telegram accounts of reporters who are talking to the fighters in LDNR, it becomes apparent that a good umber of US howitzers have got though and they are using the 40km guided excalibur ammunition and achieving one shot kills in counter battery fire and on other targets. The use of precision projectiles for oe shot kills greatly reduces the ammunition logistics requirements. Throughout this, Ukraine have made very good use of the drone artillery combination, have been able to keep drones in the air and no doubt a in-exhaustible supply coming from the US.
LDNR have their own artillery but I believe Russia's O group are also operating that front.
The allied forces have not been able to achieve artillery dominance along the Donets river, even with air dominance (though not surveillance drone dominance). All bridging operations have failed due to their inability to suppress Ukraine artillery.

hen I mentioned the drone problem to Martyanov, he dismissed and said counter battery radar was sufficient. The sort of thinking ordinary soldiers pay for in blood. The Somme, Gallipoli, The T-34 tank crews up against Panzer IV's. A good tank for the time but undergunned when they came up against the Panzer IV which Germany began to produce in large numbers a year or or so into the war. 4/5/6 T34 crews paid in blood to knockout one Panzer. It was only in the last stages of the war that the T34 was up gunned.

Small drone surveillance/targeting coupled to artillery became clear in Syria but Russian military, like Martyanov, did not seem to place much importance on it.

From what I have read, and to their credit, Russian command did pick up on this problem in the first week or two of this war, the first hand held jammers and man portable detection systems now starting to appear on the field.

I suspect this is something Ritter has noticed, that coupled to the pullbacks in the south to the Kherson admin region, in the north the pull back from Khakov. The problem with those pullbacks is I think our assumptions of Russia's plans and strategy. Most, me included expected Russia to take the majority ethnic Russian oblasts and a military campaign to the western borders to kinetically denazify Ukraine. I now very much doubt Russia has ever had any plans to carry out our assumptions.
One thing this operation to date has had a great success with - the anglo west, which includes the European cannon fodder, has thrown aside all fig leaves and Russia can now proceed on a very clear basis which 80%> of the world also sees.


Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 0:26 utc | 152

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | May 24 2022 0:20 utc |
"There's a lot of ganging up on Ritter here for no reason that makes sense to me."

In other words, you haven't read anything I said, nor what was said by Martyanov or Larry Johnson.

In simple terms, you have no idea what you're talking about.

"It all seems to boil down to who claims to have the "bigger balls"."

This is really a stupid statement. No one that I've seen comment on this has said anything other than that Ritter has misinterpreted the situation. I repeatedly stated that I think his motivations are fine, he just has extrapolated into the future his misreading of the state of play. So has everyone else I just mentioned. No one has claimed "bigger balls". Where you get that horseshit I can't imagine.

"That it doesn't match the general consensus of the majority here is just too damn bad."

So in your view any random horseshit all has equal value. Makes sense, given your own contribution.

"It totally is congruent with Jamal Thomas who perhaps is more concise in his explanations."

And who the fuck is Jamal Thomas that we should take his view as significant, based on what?

"I see American Nukes. Now make me "unsee" them."

Try to be more explanatory and less clever. "American nukes" where and when?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:27 utc | 153

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 0:26 utc | 152

I'd like to see some citations for most of that. Not saying it's not true. However, I fail to see how that derails the operational plan. These are all tactical issues you're talking about. WWII tanks are not relevant. And in case you've missed it, the Russians use small drones for artillery targeting, too, which is why there are tons of drone footage of destroyed Ukrainian tanks and fortifications.

As for artillery dominance in a specific tactical location, I'm not sure that's relevant to the overall operation.

Once again, it's easy to pick out tactical issues and then blow them up into an operational disaster. This is Ritter's problem. This is why Martyanov dismisses people. As the SEALS say, if there's a problem, you work the problem. A military doesn't just throw up their hands and say, "I quit" (unless you're the Ukrainian military, although they do seem to have adapted well as a matter of necessity - however ineffective it's proven so far.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:38 utc | 154

From the DPR MoFA via Donbass Insider... An assessment of the damage done to DPR over the last 96 days...

According to the official data of the DPR Joint Centre for Control and Coordination in the territory within the borders before the special military operation start from February 17, 2022 as of 09:30 May 23, 2022:

During the 96 days of escalation, 123 civilians were killed, including 4 children.

558 civilians, including 45 children, were wounded of varying severity.

Damages:
- 3573 residential buildings;
- 755 civilian infrastructure facilities, including 48 medical institutions, 130 educational institutions, 222 social security facilities, 27 critical infrastructure facilities, 328 electricity, water and gas supply facilities. The armed formations of Ukraine attack Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk, Makeevka, Volnovakha, Yasinovataya.
- 391 vehicles.

During the 96 days of escalation the DPR JCCC has recorded 3,154 cases of firing, of which 2,866 with the use of heavy weapons.

In total, the enemy fired 29375 ammunition of various calibers, including 28 missiles from the Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile system, 11 missiles from the BM-30 Smerch MLRS, 27 BM-27 Uragan MLRS missiles and 4755 BM-21 Grad MLRS missiles.

@DNR_SCKK

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:40 utc | 155

I was debating with a Ukrainian supporting friend some days ago about this war and its causes and I reached the humble conclusion that the historical turning point of this conflict is the so called Holodomor. I think that is the main weapon Ukrainian nationalism wield against Russians and pretend to equal the Soviets to the Nazis. There was an interesting discussion about this where Mr Bevin provided some wonderful information. Kudos to him. That made me remember about an argument between the historian Arch Getty and the insufferable clown R. Conquest, aka Bush's bitch. I leave the link here. I find it measured and informative for newcomers to the topic. Spoiler, Getty is no Stalinist, but nevertheless he refutes firmly Conquest's main points.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v09/n02/j.-arch-getty/starving-the-ukraine

Cheers

Posted by: Mariátegui | May 24 2022 0:53 utc | 156

Latest Russian MoD briefing...

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision, long-range sea-based missiles near Malin railway station in Zhitomir Region have destroyed weapons and military equipment of the Ukrainian armed forces' 10th Mountain Assault Brigade from Ivano-Frankovsk that had been transferred to Donbass.

High-precision air-based missiles have hit 4 command posts, 1 communication centre of the North Task Force near Bakhmut in the Donetsk People's Republic, 48 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 6 ammunition depots near Soledar, Sol', Bakhmut, Berestovoe, Zakotoe and Nyrkovo in the Lugansk People's Republic, during the day.

1 Ukrainian Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile system has been also destroyed near Bakhmut in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 39 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration and destroyed 1 ammunition depot near Krasnyi Liman in the Lugansk People's Republic.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 230 nationalists and up to 33 armoured and motor vehicles.

Russian air defence means shot down 3 Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force overnight, including 2 near Kiselevka, Kherson Region, and 1 over Pavlograd, Kharkov Region.

Also, 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Chervonyi Yar, Chernobaevka, Mirnoe, Aleksandrovka in Kherson Region, Yunokommunarovsk in the Donetsk People's Republic, Hotomlya, Sinichino, Petrovskoe, Terny in Kharkov Region, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2 near Lozovaya in Kharkov Region.

In addition, 2 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles over Tomina Balka, Kherson Region, and 8 Ukrainian Smerch multiple-launch rockets over Izyum, Topolskoe, Semenovka and Bikino, Kharkov Region have been intercepted.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 73 command posts, 578 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 37 artillery and mortar units at firing positions.

13 tanks and armoured infantry fighting vehicles, 5Grad multiple rocket launchers and 3 ammunition depots have been destroyed.

In total, 177 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 990 unmanned aerial vehicles, 319 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,226 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 421 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,643 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,106 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:55 utc | 157

"However, I fail to see how that derails the operational plan."

It doesn't Richard. It simply means Russian shitkickers pay in blood. I feel it is better to be a live hero than a dead hero. But I give Rus command their due - they are quick to pick up on what they have fucked up on.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 0:56 utc | 158

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | May 24 2022 0:20 utc |
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:38 utc | 154


I'm more a reader than a poster here, but I would appreciate folks focusing on the music and not the noise around it. This leads nowhere, sows discord and breaks the mood in this bar.

Thanks Richard for providing so much insight, please keep it up, and don't waste your time on trolls trying to transfigure your posts as something they aren't. I can't see you dissing neither Gonzalo Lira nor Scott Ritter -- we're all just people and sometimes we see things differently (which actually makes stuff interesting), but when a discussion descends to the level of 6-year-olds arguing about nothing, it ain't worth the time and effort... no offence.

Posted by: Nervous German | May 24 2022 0:57 utc | 159

Caught one!
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 0:20 utc | 150

Which one is that?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 1:02 utc | 160

Can someone explain why the analysis of S Ritter (before, now and in the future) are SO important that such a storm has arisen?

Posted by: JB | May 23 2022 18:10 utc | 38

It's not that important. There is no storm and the teacup is small enough for RSH. He buys into Lira too much and Lira is being petty towards Ritter. Boring as batshit and I would think quite difficult for SR.

Also quite divisive it would seem. Now I wonder who is the usual culprit of the divide and conquer strategy ?

btw most here are not dissing Ritter. He is just a guy doing his best imo. Lira on the other hand is quite a different kettle of fish.

Posted by: K | May 24 2022 1:11 utc | 161

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 23:19 utc | 132

Korean YouTuber Ken Rhee says he was injured during combat in Ukraine

“I trained with the Korean and U.S. military, where we always spent a lot of energy on planning,” he said. “Ukrainian fighters are somewhat different, they are like a flash — they just go and fight, improvising.”
incidentally
“The problem is that my stay in Ukraine is considered illegal at home. Each country has different laws, and the Korean ones are very strange.” he explained, adding, “Therefore, I think that when I return, they will try to arrest me at the airport only for participating in this war.”

Posted by: sln2002 | May 24 2022 1:14 utc | 162

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 1:02 utc | 160

This other guy named Peter. See above. Started by asking, as many have, why there are still Ukrainian jets flying, which I explained, then turned into a concern troll.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 1:16 utc | 163

Richard. I suspect this, amongst the spoken objectives is also a blooding operation by Russia. In Ukraine they are directly fighting US nato. It gives for Russian command a view of its strengths and weaknesses and allows weaknesses to be strengthened. Shitkickers paying in blood is however a touchy point with me when a problem that could easily have been avoided has not. System pigs occur everywhere.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 1:16 utc | 164

I wonder what the Ukie cops will think when the Poles take their jobs so they can be sent to the Eastern front? How about the Ukie territorial forces when the Poles step in to protect cities so they can go to the Eastern front and fight the Russians?

Posted by: circumspect | May 24 2022 1:17 utc | 165

Posted by: K | May 24 2022 1:11 utc | 161
"He buys into Lira too much and Lira is being petty towards Ritter."

No, this has nothing to do with Lira. I was complaining about Ritter's 180 before I saw Lira's responses. Lira's responses merely echo Martyanov's and mine and Johnson's and even Mercouris, not the other way around, as most of Lira's do. He's not usually wrong but he's usually secondary to everyone else I listen to. And actually I think he went a bit too far on Ritter. Most of what Ritter says is still correct in terms of stuff outside the state of play on the ground.

"Now I wonder who is the usual culprit of the divide and conquer strategy ?"

And that means what?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 1:22 utc | 166

Monty Python stoning blasphemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDe9msExUK8

I guess I don't agree with that bit by Ritter, but I also do not agree with him being stoned by binary minds.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 1:22 utc | 167

Posted by: watcher | May 24 2022 0:24 utc | 151

Thanks. On this page:
https://defensepoliticsasia.com/ukraine/ I was shocked to see the huge number of Ukie 'Entrenchments' as seen by satellite. No wonder there has been almost no forward progress near Donetsk in almost 3 months. (Unless it's a 'phoney war' as I have long suspected.)

Posted by: Scorpion | May 24 2022 1:39 utc | 168

Dear commentators; We are all trying to find information because we are curious. We have a variety of sources.that are mentioned daily. One of them knows things that the others, and us, don't. The info is added to our collective knowledge, we benefit. The important question is how do they know it? Larry, Scott, Martyanov and others are well trained and know the military and politics from their experience. Gonzo has relatives and even a business regarding Ukraine. So they get different info and have different interests, different people with opinion.
This isn't a competition, that is how wars get started. Russian intelligence has been there forever and they know a lot more that everyone else put together. Even better, they know what the plan is. They are going to decide what to do without outside help.

Posted by: Tard | May 24 2022 1:44 utc | 169

Scorpion | May 24 2022 1:39 utc | 168

Perhaps an unveiling rather than a phony war. Like with the Ruble, Russia will also win in the vaunted information warfare when info war is looked at globally.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 1:47 utc | 170

On Russian progress in the war, I want to throw something out there for consideration:

When I consider the speculated attrition ratios between the two sides, on the one hand they are pretty good for "real war", like with artillery, and on the other hand they involve quite a few dead Russian soldiers. This seems questionable since we are used to watching the US' way of war, and those dead soldiers have families, and so on.

But I think the people here who think Russia is testing its military have a point. And I think that it is at least possible that what we have is what was wanted to bring about. The Russians have had a nice little honey pot going there in Donbass, attracting all sorts of bees who don't like Russians. Entirely suitable fodder for the Russian military to hone itself on. Meanwhile the West can't decide whether to commit suicide. go mad, or bankrupt itself first. It's undermining NATO. Etc. I can't see how they could afford to give it up until they have to, i.e. when the West stops feeding the grinder.

They may have started out thinking to force a deal, but this is much better.

Putin, in the past, has a pattern of leaving frozen conflicts behind, rather than resolving them by force, since Chechnya, like S. Ossetia and Abkhazia, Syria, and the Donbass for 8 years.

I think that is what he will do in Ukraine too, rather than take all of it.

"Never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake."

Posted by: Bemildred | May 24 2022 2:01 utc | 171

Posted by: Scorpion | May 24 2022 1:39 utc | 168

Since he uses google maps the defensive installations are fairly clear I think. Yes I think the strength of these dug in fortifications has been seriously underestimated by many posters here and definitely by Ritter. What we have is WWI and it is confusing many.

I have little doubt that Russia was well aware of these fortifications but I suspect assumed/hoped that many in the Ukrainian forces would rapidly surrender. This did not happen and has delayed their progress. However progress is being made and i suspect will gather pace as supply lines are disrupted and Ukrainian morale falls.

Posted by: watcher | May 24 2022 2:05 utc | 172

Notice that Germany appears no longer on board with the US plan. They appear to want to be friendly to Russia. They won't violate their contract with the Swiss for the AA tanks by sending them the war zone. They won't do something to Russia that they will regret. The list of friendly nations is growing every day. The oil sent by Russia is the kind Euro refineries are used to and they would have to retool to use another product. Europe is very likely to be closed by the time they could adapt, regardless of where they are going to buy it. And since Europe has to know what kind of oil they are getting long before they can retool to refine it. Then, they are going to have to continue to purchase it from the same supplier or retool again.

Russia has promised not to weaponize energy. They have not. Hatred of Russians may destroy Europe and a lot of other nations in a major tantrum. But they know they can't get out of it because it is their very survival. The countries may wail but they will be sending rubles to Moscow for a long time if they don't want to collapse.

now Poland, there is a nation applying for rump state status. They want their land back and will have to take it from the Azov mind of Ukraine and then again take from Russia? Where is Lech Walensa when you need a sound Polish mind? Nevermind, think he moved to the US.

We haven't even talked about the natural gas but we know Europe will freeze because of great big ego's in tiny little minds.

Posted by: Tard | May 24 2022 2:05 utc | 173

Posted by: Tard | May 24 2022 1:44 utc | 169
"They are going to decide what to do without outside help."

Correct. Which is what Martyanov and I keep saying: No one knows the Russian plan except Putin, his team and the Russian General Staff. When I speculate on such matters, it's based on what I see is the logic that flows from Russia's stated security requirements including those outside Ukraine itself.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 2:17 utc | 174

I wish we could put this Scott Ritter thingy to bed. He has been truthful in the past. Wake me up when Russia moves towards Odessa and Transnistria. Until then, it's a a slow grind. Also, I think that Russia would do well to let Poland have the west. Let them deal with the mess that will undoubtedly ensue. My two pence.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | May 24 2022 2:18 utc | 175

Mercouris can be frustration, very interesting and informative but seems to overlook the obvious. Still veryinteresting developments and he certainly brings some rationality (unfortunately to an irrational situation).
He points out correctly I think that only a small portion of the 40B$ to Ukraine is for Ukraine in fact much of it will not even reach Ukraine. Clearly there is a passing of the hat for Ukraine and contries are arm twisted into donating toward this corrupt clown government. The humorous aspect is that I think that they can see that their donations will achieve little so they are looking for an off-ramp. As with any failing business venture the situation is always made to appear must potential right before collapse and hopping train out of town. Zelensky at wef is pathetic.
Seems Russia is making serious headway at this point - resistance is collapsing as would be expected (on the assumption that Russia knows what it is doing).
I saw a comment somewhere that made me realize something that I hade not considered - it would almost seem there is a racist crusade being conducted against asians being other than european.
Mercouris and Escobar seem to agree that Pentogram is in a panic about realization that Ukraine is not doing well and soldiers ready to surrender and doesnt fit the pre-election narrative.

Posted by: jared | May 24 2022 2:20 utc | 176

I think that no one who saw this video by Ritter could question his support for Russias objectives in this difficult battle:
https://t.me/ScottRitter/54

Ritter has made a career of challenging the organizations that he supports. He does it because of sincere desire to protect those organizations from threats external and internal.

Gonzalo Lira is a smuch with a cell phone.

Posted by: jared | May 24 2022 2:39 utc | 177

@ Bemildred | May 24 2022 2:01 utc | 171 who wrote

"
But I think the people here who think Russia is testing its military have a point. And I think that it is at least possible that what we have is what was wanted to bring about. The Russians have had a nice little honey pot going there in Donbass, attracting all sorts of bees who don't like Russians. Entirely suitable fodder for the Russian military to hone itself on. Meanwhile the West can't decide whether to commit suicide. go mad, or bankrupt itself first. It's undermining NATO. Etc. I can't see how they could afford to give it up until they have to, i.e. when the West stops feeding the grinder.

They may have started out thinking to force a deal, but this is much better.
"

I still think Russia is trying to force a deal. The deal they want to force is already on the table and it just matters how far they have to push back on empire before it capitulates. Russia is demonstrating its capabilities and empire is trying to figure our how to hang on to its corner of our new world.

When this is over, empire as well as NATO will be on their way to being history.....the bullies of empire will be neutered or humanity will perish because of poor losers.....I am ready for humanity to get to the other side of that choice.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 24 2022 3:07 utc | 178

...but not before stating severe accusations towards his country and Lawrow in particular...
|

It appears that "NedF" at post #7 is a none-too-bright Pole looking to sow some anti-Russian propaganda.

I do scratch my head over the obvious stupidity of all those people hired by the US to parrot its talking points. The CIA is supposed to be in charge of "intelligence", yet so many of the people it hires are so obviously lacking it.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 24 2022 3:16 utc | 179

Whatever your thoughts on Scott Ridder, his anaylsis ect. I want to point out that it is a long time, tried and true tactic of govt infiltrators to sow discord and create animosity amoung a group.

Posted by: Mark | May 24 2022 3:23 utc | 180

@ Fiji Refugee | May 23 2022 23:09 utc | 130

I watched the video, I have never seen the guy before but I think he outlined the dilemma quite well. He is right about peace not being an option, no deal is possible with those fuckers, they couldn't be trusted to keep to an agreement even if they made one.

One card the Russians have up their sleeve is the population of the (pending) new state of Novorossiya. The Donbass republics already have their own armed forces upon which to build and the RF's restraint and consideration for civilians will have earned them plenty of good will. The US/Ukro-Nazi way of war, in direct contrast (scorched earth and human shields) has earned them more enemies.

A hot frontier is inevitable I reckon but sooner or later the fighting will peter out. I doubt that the majority of the Ukrainian refugees will willingly return to a poverty stricken fascist state and the west will soon be too economically stricken to keep throwing money into a black hole. Our deluded deep state leaders will obviously try to keep on escalating but eventually they will run out of fuel, (literally as well as metaphorically)

Posted by: MarkU | May 24 2022 3:26 utc | 181

The only thing missing is a big Z, and our Church of the Russian Armed Forces looks even more fascist.

Posted by: Lavrovian slip | May 23 2022 15:17 utc | 5

"Lavrovian Slip" should read "Rovian Quip"--or even, "Rovian Quim"--because this moron doesn't realize that it's the US/NATO oligarchy who are fascists, and the Russians/Chinese who are anti-fascist.

It was the US and England who adopted Nazi spies into their bureaucracies, back in 1945--not Russia.

It has been a downhill freefall into pure, unadulterated Fascist Oligarchy ever since.

Go back to fellating your boss down there in Houston, La Rovian.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 24 2022 3:32 utc | 182

@ richard steven hack... thanks for your posts... i share @ Nervous German | May 24 2022 0:57 utc | 159 viewpoint which is essentially this :

save yourself the energy of responding to those who don't or won't get it... it ain't worth your effort... stick to what you do well and continue..

@ stonebird, ghostship, peter au, pacifica advocate and a few others.. thanks for your posts.. i appreciate it.. ghostship, you made a few comments @ 22:39 utc | 121 which i related well to..

@ Bemildred | May 24 2022 2:01 utc | 171

i am not sure what the rates on deaths per each side are, but i am sure there is a lot of dishonesty on this topic, especially from the west side - ukraine and etc.. but otherwise i agree much of your commentary, especially your last line... thanks..

@ Fiji Refugee | May 23 2022 23:09 utc | 130

your post might explain why reddit is not a source i have any interest in exploring.. the comments to that link give a good enough summary in motivating me to spend my time elsewhere... thanks...

Posted by: james | May 24 2022 3:55 utc | 183

Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 17:54 utc | 35
______

Thanks for the takedown of Ritter's blinkered defeatism, without condemnation. We each wear blinders. I suppose Ritter is so steeped in US shock'n awe tactics with its blasé indifference to human death and suffering that he can't quite grasp Russia's revolutionary strategy, which actually values human life. That belongs in hollow platitudes alone; in the "real" world it's inconceivable.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | May 24 2022 4:03 utc | 184

I had a tremendous discussion with Scott Ritter this evening regarding the controversy his analysis has stirred. Please watch and share if you are so inclined:

https://youtu.be/UnZU4n9lurg

Posted by: Billy Bob | May 24 2022 4:25 utc | 185

Peace must be at hand, Ivanka traveled to Poland last week to meet with Ukraine refugees. She handed out meals to refugees, met with faith-based groups. A fan on her instagram cheered, "Ivanka for President!" Very soon we'll be told that a peace deal has been negotiated by Ivanka. If she wants to be president of Ukraine, that would be fine.

Posted by: susan mullen | May 24 2022 4:42 utc | 186

It's ironic that Turkey can object to the incorporation of Sweden and Finland into NATO.

During a news conference, Erdogan said: “These countries do not have a clear unequivocal stance against terrorist organisations. Sweden is the incubation centre of terrorist organisations. They bring terrorists to talk in their parliaments. We wouldn’t say ‘yes’ to them joining NATO, a security organisation.”

His objections are all over the MSM, unlike similar complaints from the RF, notably incorporated in its security proposals in December 2021.

The terrorists in 404's parliament and military is part of the reasoning that RF has used for the SMO.

Given that Turkey illegally occupies northern Syria, and the Turkish leader also criticised Stockholm for imposing military sanctions for their occupation, I would have thought the principle that their occupation could be justified and used as a lever against NATO would apply in the RF/404 case, instead we get "how can we accomodate Turkey" from the likes U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan who told reporters on Thursday that Washington wanted to see it resolved and it was ready to take action to be supportive (Reuters).

But I never expected consistency from empire or its mouthpieces.

Is this a power play from Turkey to exercise greater control over NATO?

Posted by: Dadda | May 24 2022 4:47 utc | 187

Posted by: Billy Bob | May 24 2022 4:25 utc | 186

I'll check it out. Thanks. If he gives a real response, I give him credit for at least dealing with his critics. If he blows it off, though, look out. :-)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 5:30 utc | 188

Rybar Telegram channel again complains, as others here have, that there's too many Ukrainian aircraft still flying... Their explanation is the same as I said, however... The problem, as I said, is that the Russian General Staff's operational plan probably has a prioritized set of strike packages and just because the Ukrainians can put a few more planes back into service, they clearly don't see it as a serious operational impediment. In other words, Rybar is suggesting that it is better at war fighting than the General Staff. Well, if they are, they should apply for the job...

We wrote more than once (https://t.me/rybar/32260) that flight crews are being trained in the western part of Ukraine.

However, if earlier there were two or three flights per day on some L-39 light attack aircraft from the airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk, now the number of daily sorties using various equipment has increased many times over from several air bases.

The main task of the technical brigades of the Air Force of Ukraine is the accelerated restoration of mothballed equipment for the subsequent running-in of equipment and training of crews, as well as air defense crews of the radio engineering brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukrainian specialists were able to establish not only the process of training pilots, but also a repair and restoration base at several airfields:

Ozerno-Zhytomyr Air Base.
Airbase Lutsk.
Vinnitsa airfield.
Ivano-Frankivsk airfield.
Kolomyia airfield.
Smykovtsy airfield.
Uzhgorod airfield.

Parts and necessary spare parts and assemblies for MiG-29 fighters were supplied (https://t.me/rybar/32999) from Poland, and for Soviet-made helicopters from Eastern Europe. For example, a multi-purpose Mi-17 helicopter of the Slovak Air Force makes at least one departure from Slovakia to the Uzhgorod airfield every day.

Western countries are also actively involved in restoring the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force, providing logistics and paying for all the work.

A complete list of airfields is available here (https://t.me/rybar/32164)

#Vinnitsa #Zhytomyr #IvanoFrankivsk #map #Lviv #Lutsk #Ukraine #Ternopil
@rybar

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 6:02 utc | 189

@ Fiji Refugee | May 23 2022 23:09 utc | 130

Thanks for the link. He is quite coherent and easy to listen to.

I think perhaps the nuance that people might be missing from this and Ritters comments for example is that these are great examples of how the US thinks of itself and therefore of Russia. It cannot predict what Russia will or could do, but rather what the US and allies will continue to do because its all they have ever done.
Knowing its from a US centric perspective can make such commentary a worthwhile contribution.

Posted by: K | May 24 2022 6:05 utc | 190

The Russians get it... From Sputnik News Telegram channel...

Of the $40 billion allocated by the United States, Ukraine will get only 15%.

This is the opinion of the speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin.

35% of the total amount will be used to finance the armed forces of the United States itself, 45.2% will be spent on "other countries", another 4.8% will be spent on refugee assistance and diplomatic issues, Volodin noted.

"But Ukrainians will have to pay the debt — and all $40 billion -".

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 6:06 utc | 191

From Sputnik News Telegram channel... Here you go... And of course it's a money maker for the region as well...

The authorities of the Kherson region will ask for the deployment of a Russian military base in the region.

"There should be a military base of the Russian Federation in the Kherson region. We will ask for it, and the whole population is interested in it. This, first of all, is vital and will guarantee the security of the region and its residents," said Deputy head of the Stremousov administration.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 6:08 utc | 192

Hey Billy Bob. Great interview with Scott Ritter! Thanks to you both.

One thing SR doesn't talk much about is why Putin is avoiding civilian casualties and, in fact, seems to be making sure he reconstructs the towns which his troops have necessarily destroyed.

Could it be that Putin, as part of his strategic objectives, is determined to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people? If he accomplishes that while simultaneously "demilitarizing" Ukraine, could that be a game changer? Or as Scott Ritter says- an "Off ramp?"

Posted by: Johnny Dollar | May 24 2022 6:16 utc | 193

US/NATO sanctions are a self inflicted injury with unintended consequences. Russia will not change its course and the sanctions don't matter to Russia. It's an existential matter. Now the writing is on the wall for China.

"China should move reserves out of US Treasuries
China should move FX reserves away from US assets to preempt possible asset seizure and invest in energy and raw materials."

By YU YONGDING
MAY 24, 2022

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/china-should-move-reserves-out-of-us-treasuries/

Posted by: Paul | May 24 2022 6:18 utc | 194

Posted by: Paul | May 24 2022 6:18 utc | 195

China is already doing just that albeit slowly. In March they slashed 15.2 Billion - to be the lowest since 2010. They have probably repeated this in April and again in May

Posted by: watcher | May 24 2022 6:27 utc | 195

@RSH 113

Here is a link to Bild regarding Scholz´s stalling of exporting Marder:

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/seit-ueber-vier-wochen-ampel-blockiert-marder-lieferung-fuer-die-ukraine-80175356.bild.html

Posted by: Goingo | May 24 2022 6:30 utc | 196

Dadda #188

But I never expected consistency from empire or its mouthpieces.

Is this a power play from Turkey to exercise greater control over NATO?

This IS consistency Erdogan style: consistently hypocritical, megalomaniacal, internally contradictory, externally duplicitous, etc!

His position regarding the enlarging of NAZO this year is simultaneously a tip to Russia, a clemency plea to Russia for selling his son in law's drones to Russia's enemies, a totally disreputable ally deserved of the garrotte, but he survives until he dies by fair means or foul. Expect worse, that is all I can promise you.

Erdogan can certainly sh!t and chew gum at the same time.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 24 2022 6:36 utc | 197

Posted by: Goingo | May 24 2022 6:30 utc | 197

Thanks. I don't read German, but I just wanted confirmation that it wasn't a made up story by these other oddball Web sites talking about it (including Ukraine papers.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 24 2022 6:49 utc | 198

Anti-Spiegel.ru

More good reads than you can poke a stick at:

Using the example of the press tour to the conflict area in the Donbass, I can show how brazenly the German media misinforms their readers.
https://www-anti--spiegel-ru.translate.goog/2022/wie-deutsche-medien-berichte-aus-mariupol-manipulieren/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en


Bush gets pranked and confirms biolabs:-
https://www-anti--spiegel-ru.translate.goog/2022/ex-us-praesident-bush-bestaetigt-die-existenz-der-us-biolabore-in-der-ukraine/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Unnoticed by the media, Poland has taken the next step in taking over Ukraine. Selensky has paved the way for this and is bartering his own country to Warsaw.
https://www-anti--spiegel-ru.translate.goog/2022/der-naechste-schritt-polen-will-die-ukraine-schlucken/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 24 2022 6:51 utc | 199

I am not and have not been since day one part of the peasant mob stoning Ritter although I did not agree with his take.

I will re plug Billy Bob | May 24 2022 4:25 utc | 186 interview.
https://youtu.be/UnZU4n9lurg

Ukraine has devolved to artillery warfare, something the US backed nazi's and the Ukraine military are proving themselves to be very good at. On the reverse side of the coin, Rus military are using this as a testing field and very quickly moving to fix what they have overlooked.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2022 6:54 utc | 200

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