Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 22, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-71

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on May 22, 2022 at 11:58 UTC | Permalink

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@deplorable commissar 15
McKinsey : operating under plain conflict of interest is apparently within their DNA.
See opioid crisis where they were seemingly working for both FDA and opioid producers
See COVID epidemics where they were apparently working for Pfizer and vax user countries

Posted by: Daniel | May 22 2022 17:46 utc | 101

Another good Sunday read from Tom Luongo:
From Currency Resets to Limiting Infinite Growth

The hubristic impudence and recklessness of the Davos crowd is mindboggling. This so-called "elite" is a bunch of neofeudalist terrorists. We should start calling them what they are: Davos terrorists.

Posted by: Nervous German | May 22 2022 17:55 utc | 102

Vladimirovka comes under Russian Army control according to ground sources as Ukrainian defence collapses

Posted by: caption | May 22 2022 18:13 utc | 103

"But those partitions weren't regarded as temporary by all of the signatories, were they?"
malenkov@107
I don't know but it wouldn't surprise me if all those making public statements did maintain it as a legal fiction.
Anyway my point was that if any state had real expertise in this matter it would be the Poles. After all in 1815 Alexander I noisily proclaimed that he was restoring Polish Independence in the Russian re-occupied areas.


https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/05/22/calls-by-western-socialists-for-a-russian-retreat-from-ukraine-amount-to-de-facto-support-for-nato-aggression/

Posted by: bevin | May 22 2022 18:19 utc | 104

Re : nazis setting fire to house with people still inside.

Grrr. I wish it were feasible to, upon finding these guys guilty in a war court, lock them up in their own houses, and burn the houses down on top of them.

Posted by: Featherless | May 22 2022 18:23 utc | 105

7min video of the destruction vicinity of Popasna where recent and intense combat occurred; destruction is total, massive, and gut wrenching view of Ukrainian area.

https://ok.ru/video/3481367808640

It would be good if the thugs nuland, blinky, sullivan were shown what they have wrought but they do not give a flying f_ck about Ukraine or the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians (this excludes the nazi criminals e.g. azov.)

A Ukraine sourced map but reasonably current and accurate:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-may-at-bakhmut-direction-with-the-help-of-artillery-russian

Posted by: Thomas | May 22 2022 18:24 utc | 106

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 17:20 utc | 103

Are you trying to compare US external debt as a % of GDP to other nations' external debt (denominated in USD)? If so, you can browse World Bank.

Or are you trying to compare foreign exchange reserves (foreign account holders' assets -- cash + cash equivalents, eg. marketable securities any issuer) deposited with US Federal Reserve Banks (inc US charterd banks) to total foreign exchange reserves deposited with different central banks, eg. PBOC, ECB?

IF so, you might browse Trading Economics chart pr0n, rather than canvass every central banks' QoQ reports since, say, the credit Panic of '08. yanno, just to be sure, what foreign "assets" the FRB cannot "freeze", the NYFed is buying from "primary dealers".

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 18:27 utc | 107

Roger Annis has a good article on the Russian empire nonsense being peddled by the faux Trotskyists. See 111 above for the link.

The historical difference between the Tsarist and the Western maritime empires was that Russian 'expansion' has always been reactive in nature. Every additional possession has been acquired after wars of a defensive nature. Crimea, under the Tartars, specialised in raiding Russia, selling slav(e)s in the Istanbul market and sending human tribute (see slav(e)s above) to the Sultan. The Baltic wars against the Swedish and German colonists were equally defensive and, in many ways, retrievals of lands stolen by conquest.
NATO's current antics are a timely demonstration of the conservative nature of the Soviet stance at Yalta- the sphere of influence that Stalin required in eastern europe, occupying the staging posts for Operation Barbarossa were all that prevented the Imperialists from advancing their armies right up to the Soviet Union's western borders, which is where they are (plus some, in the Baltic and Caucasus) today. And the Imperialists' price for that concession involved the military abandonment of the mass Communist movements which dominated the west of the Continent in 1945.
In Greece it involved the Soviet Union standing aside as the Empire, led by the UK, crushed the resistance movement and re-installed the fascist monarchists to power.

Posted by: bevin | May 22 2022 18:40 utc | 108


Patrick Lancaster
Ukraine Fires Incendiary(Phosphorus) shells On Civilian Homes says Residents

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EzfmH9IKAs

Posted by: ld | May 22 2022 18:46 utc | 109

The "professional" troll in this thread is NOT a Trotskyist. The screen name is every bit a misdirection as the content of his posts. One of the purposes it serves it that when he is called out for his trollery it will tar Trotsky's ideas.

Note: Strategists for capitalist elites don't care if people rally around Stalinism as that is an ideological dead end and no threat to them. Few US intelligence/law enforcement agencies even bother infiltrating Stalinist organizations anymore. As much as a third of the membership of Trotskyist organizations, on the other hand, are CIA, FBI, ATF, IRS, DHS, and state police, etc.. Gotta keep the most dangerous ideas under close supervision.

That most obvious "professional" troll in this thread is almost certainly a Democrat Party funded Brock-bot (works for David Brock). Claiming victimhood with "I'd wish they would... refrain from a kneejerk anti-US sentiment" is a dead giveaway of a woketard who self-identifies as Democrat.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 22 2022 18:47 utc | 110

So Mariupol is captured and the DPR and Russians have a few thousand new sources of information, including some rather interesting and important ones, and a significant fighting force has been neutralized. Along with the quick initial gains made establishing a land corridor to Crimea extending to the mouth of the Dniper River at Kherson and including the NPP of Zaporizhzhya. The water canal delivering water to Crimea was unblocked and output from the NPP can be reconnected to the Crimean grid. The sea of Azov is now a Russian lake. This took almost 3 months and accomplishes a significant strategic goal.

Breaking the UAF defensive line along the Donbass front has been slow going although steady progress has been and continues to be made. This has resulted in the encirclement, or near encirclement of somewhere between 5 and 15k UAF soldiers and the Russian MOD optimistically stated that "soon the provinces of Donensk and Lughansk would be fully liberated."

Supply lines (Mainly rail so far) from western Ukraine have been disrupted, Fuel storage areas destroyed across the country, the Ukrainian airforce reduced to ineffective levels (twice now), and some communication facilities destroyed.

So now to the setbacks - at least from prognostications from the first couple of weeks of conflict.

Whatever was intended with the movement toward Kiev, after approaching the city on three sides, destroying military infrastructure, and fighting some intense battles, the Russians have completely withdrawn forces from the area. The move toward kharkiv (and Chernigiv) had similar outcomes. The Russians approached and partially encircled these cities, fought heavy battles, destroyed some military targets, and now have withdrawn their forces. The port of Odessa has been hit repeatedly with missile strikes and rail links damaged, but no serious attempt mounted to take the city and its port.

Quite a few people believe that the initial moves toward Kiev and Kharkiv were so called 'fixing operations', intended to prevent reinforcement of the UAF eastern army. Regardless of the intent, I would guess they did accomplish this. However I recall calls from the Russians for the UAF command to take control of the government in Kiev and I believe that at least some in the Russian military thought that this threat to the major cities in the first days of the war would lead to capitulation, and that in Kharkiv they might succeed in taking the city with help from the locals. Gilbert Doctow has a piece up with a story about a ride with a Moscow taxi driver, retired from Russian security services with friends in the military, who relates the opinion that the initial weeks of the operation were a disaster, that those in charge were 'armchair generals' who were shortly replaced and who "should have been taken out and shot". I don't believe that this is an isolated/random opinion. I tend to think that the planning for the operation was a contingency plan hastily pressed into service and that those in charge were wearing rose tinted glasses. The UAF has fought determinedly for three months now, caused considerable damage and casualties to the RAF despite the relative lack of air cover, and while there have been large surrenders around Mariupol, at least so far, there have not been along the Donbass front.

Both sides have clearly been learning and adjusting their tactics over the three months.

I do expect that within a few weeks the Donesk and lughansk provinces will be taken and cleared. There is discussion that there will soon be a move toward Zaporizhzhia and perhaps, if successful, on toward Dnipro. About Kharkiv I have no idea. I believe the Russians would like to take it, but it is a very large and now well defended city. I think the Russians should take Odessa, but at this point it doesn't seem possible in the near term.

Will the Russians agree to a settlement when they have taken the eastern provinces? I have no idea but I tend to think no. Despite having lost the element of surprise and shock they benefited from at the beginning I think they will keep at it the way they have been for several months at least. They have invested considerable blood and treasure and I don't think they are ready to stop short of a complete capitulation of Kiev at this point. Will the UAF continue to be an effective fighting force as time wears on? No idea. I think this will be a crucial factor in what eventually happens.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 22 2022 18:50 utc | 111

Poland trading some cannon fodder for western Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/wargonzoo/status/1528330476590612480
2 battalions of Poles arrived in Pavlograd This is reported by the project's sources
According to our data, 2 battalions of Polish infantry moved out of Kiev the day before and have already reached Pavlograd.

Each battalion has 4 Rapira anti-tank guns, armored personnel carriers and American armored cars. Currently, the Polish infantry is being prepared for transfer to the Avdiivka front. Whether we are talking about regular troops or mercenaries - now it is difficult to say.

But in any case, the appearance of these data against the background of Zelensky's dancing with the Rada about the participation of foreign contingents in combat operations looks quite logical.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 18:58 utc | 112

@c1ue | May 22 2022 14:40 utc | 42

The West's moronic analysts all think it is just Erdogan with his hand out: Erdogan blackmail over F16s and F35s - ekathimerini.com

The thing is, I am less and less in agreement with that, although my immediate initial reaction was the same.

I believe (and hope) Erdogan is sincere and will follow through on this issue, although my confidence is not high.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 22 2022 19:02 utc | 113

Draft bill announced today in Ukraine will allow Polish police and army act on the territory of Ukraine, Polish citizens to be elected in Ukraine and have access to military secrets

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3489364-president-zelensky-announces-special-status-to-poles-in-ukraine.html

This pretty much means that Poland will move into Ukraine shortly to “Protect” it.

Posted by: Respo | May 22 2022 19:03 utc | 114

Posted by: William Gruff | May 22 2022 18:47 utc | 117

I often get the impression that Brock is still around--haven't heard of him in years, but if not him his spirit very much lives on in the democratic grift machine.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 22 2022 19:10 utc | 115

I just learned that Hitler once paid a one-day visit to Mariupol on Dec. 2, 1941. He flew in one of his planes from the airport at his East Prussian headquarters in Rastenburg to Mariupol, with a refueling stop in Kiev, to confer with his generals about their just having been forced to withdraw their forces from Rostov. Less than a week before Pearl Harbor.

I wonder if the Ukrainian Nazis are aware of this little-known event.

Posted by: Lysias | May 22 2022 19:11 utc | 116

William Gruff@117
You are quite correct. The idea that the communism of cowards, promoted by those who pretend that they are followers of Trotsky as they parrot the propaganda of the ruling class, is obscene.
Whatever else Trotsky's ideas were they were, like Rosa Luxemburg's, totally opposed to imperialism.

Not to recognise this is to wallow in the sectarianism that has long been capitalism's major ally on the left. A sectarianism that has proved to be a ticket to rich rewards in bourgeois society.

There is an obvious commonality between liberal 'woke'ism and the treatment of century old differences as to the nature of the Soviet Union as matters of overwhelming contemporary import.

Posted by: bevin | May 22 2022 19:13 utc | 117

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 18:58 utc | 119

Downstream tweet: Politico "Pro" | ‘Deadly serious’: U.S. quietly urging Taiwan to follow Ukraine playbook for countering China

U.S. officials are pushing their Taiwanese counterparts with new urgency to look to Ukraine’s SUCCESS in fending off Russian forces as a blueprint for countering a Chinese attack, former and current U.S. officials tell POLITICO.

But there is little doubt that China is also learning from Russia’s BOTCHED invasion as it looks to reunify Taiwan with the mainland — with or without force. Experts say Beijing is likely adjusting its plans for the island to reflect and improve on Russia’s failures.
[...]
Discussions about reshaping Taiwan’s military are intensifying as President Joe Biden heads out this week on his first trip as president to Asia. He will make stops in South Korea and Japan, where he will meet with the leaders of the other nations in the Quad security pact: Japan, India and Australia.
[...]
‘Asymmetric’ weapons [to complete a matching set of 'asymetric defense' and 'asymetric USD-denominated debt' ?]

Since 2010, Taipei has spent more than $23 billion on U.S. weapons, primarily large, conventional arms such as F-16 fighter jets and M109A6 self-propelled howitzers. But in recent years Washington has been urging Taipei to buy different types of weapons geared for so-called asymmetric warfare — smaller, more mobile ones that are difficult for a larger foe to target and counter. ...

BWAH!

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 19:13 utc | 118

Ironic. Lwow/Lvov/Lviv/Lemberg was an important center of Polish culture until the Soviets moved in to "protect" it after the Molotov/Ribbentrop agreement and the German invasion. The Soviets of course got it back after they defeated the Germans.

Posted by: Lysias | May 22 2022 19:19 utc | 119

pessimist | May 22 2022 18:50 utc | 118

Russia only set very low level negotiators to those meeting with Ukraine, apart I think from the meeting in Turkey. Checking out Chernobyl and pinning large Ukraine forces to ensure the success in the south I believe was the primary reason, with the possibility of Ukraine agreeing to Russia terms at that stage very much secondary. an Unexpected win if it did come about.

In the south was the large nuclear power - station and from what came out soon after its capture, Ukraine appeared to have been working on some sort of nuclear or dirty weapon - plus the bio weapons lab, Azov HQ, and possibly Nato HQ at Mariupol.
There was also the matter of securing Crimea's water supply and land bridge

From the picture that emerges now - 3 months in - Russia had most likely decided to take and keep the southern area it now controls but had no intention of taking Kharkov and Odessa regions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 19:19 utc | 120

@Seer | May 22 2022 16:00 utc | 74

[No-Zee]elensky: I give the remaining bits of western Ukraine to you for safe-keeping.
Duda: Thank you; we have been wanting this land to return to us for a long time now
The Polish piece-keepers are ready.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 22 2022 19:20 utc | 121

the pessimist @118: "Will the Russians agree to a settlement when they have taken the eastern provinces?"

I seriously doubt it. While the population in Novorossiya (the southern and eastern provinces of the former Ukraine) would certainly be better off, this would leave a highly concentrated Nazi culture in what remains of the Ukraine. There would then be no check on the insanity of the Nazis. Denazification requires a population that is willing and empowered to crush Nazi culture over the span of several generations. While the Russians can help with the initial conditions, denazification is a burden that the Ukrainians will have to shoulder themselves, and splitting the country into pieces isn't going to help with that.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 22 2022 19:23 utc | 122

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 18:58 utc | 119

"Poland trading some cannon fodder for western Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/wargonzoo/status/1528330476590612480
2 battalions of Poles arrived in Pavlograd This is reported by the project's sources
According to our data, 2 battalions of Polish infantry moved out of Kiev the day before and have already reached Pavlograd.

If this is true I would take it to mean that Ukraine no longer has effectively trained reserves left to deploy. I expect they still have considerable forces in Kharkiv, Mykoliev, Odessa, and Dnipro but cannot utilize them for fear of weakening the defenses of those cities. If Russia is able to destroy such help in transit, before it can be deployed, that would send a clear message to Kiev and Warsaw. Should it be true and Russia feels it necessary to attack military assets in Poland then we will have descended down a rabbit hole into the void.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 22 2022 19:28 utc | 123

@William Gruff | May 22 2022 19:23 utc | 129

Of course I agree with you, but we will see. From here on out there are many unknowns that may come into play. We have entered a strange new country.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 22 2022 19:32 utc | 124

Posted by: the pessimist | May 22 2022 18:50 utc | 118

After defeating Donbass grouping of UAF, Russia most urgent task should be to circumvent Nikolaev and create at land bridge to Tiraspol (from Kherson Oblast), actually cutting-off Odessa from the rest of Ukraine, securing Transdniestria, its population - and the massive weapon and ammo depot in there.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 22 2022 19:33 utc | 125

Polish troops in Pavlograd? That's not western Ukraine, that's eastern Ukraine, in the Donbass, in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast.

Posted by: Lysias | May 22 2022 19:36 utc | 126

the pessimist | May 22 2022 18:50 utc | 118

"Will the Russians agree to a settlement when they have taken the eastern provinces? I have no idea but I tend to think no... They have invested considerable blood and treasure and I don't think they are ready to stop short of a complete capitulation of Kiev at this point."

Ready or not they need to do it. The western borderlands are nothing but a vacuum that will be filled. If the Russians don't do it the empire will in an even more aggressive way than they were threatening pre-SMO.

"Will the UAF continue to be an effective fighting force as time wears on? No idea. I think this will be a crucial factor in what eventually happens."

I'm a little more optimistic about that. If, as we learn, the Kiev regime already has reached the point of bottom-of-the-barrel Volkssturm conscription, that must mean most of their real, irreplaceable cadres are fully engaged and/or have been destroyed. Nor are rag-tag mercenaries a sufficient replacement.

But, to reconcile those two perhaps inconsistent thoughts, if Russia left the Galician rump as a wild-west zone, with sufficient time the empire would be able to organize an effective military position ready for new aggression.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 22 2022 19:38 utc | 127

an effective military position ready for new aggression.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 22 2022 19:38 utc | 134

Like DPRK? Sudan or Pakistan?

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 19:43 utc | 128

oh. wait. I almost forgot Northern Ireland!

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 19:44 utc | 129

But, to reconcile those two perhaps inconsistent thoughts, if Russia left the Galician rump as a wild-west zone, with sufficient time the empire would be able to organize an effective military position ready for new aggression.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 22 2022 19:38 utc | 134

yeah, but the empire is going to find ways of doing that anyway; regime change, admitting Sweden and Finland to NATO, etc. in the long run I think dedollarization and cancelling debts to the US is going be necessary so the US can't continue funding its war machine via Europe and using the IMF and World Bank to make colonies of independent nations in Asia, Central and South America, and Asia.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 22 2022 19:46 utc | 130

Lysias | May 22 2022 19:19 utc | 126

"Lwow/Lvov/Lviv/Lemberg was an important center of Polish culture until the Soviets moved in to "protect" it after the Molotov/Ribbentrop agreement and the German invasion. The Soviets of course got it back after they defeated the Germans."

Well the Soviets physically took it from the Germans, while Stalin vehemently insisted at Teheran that the Curzon Line incorporated it. Churchill had to admit to the London Poles that there was nothing he could do about it so they had better give in.

Whatever one thinks of Beck's position in 1939, there's no doubt at all about the irresponsible, reckless, psychopathic position of the Kiev regime since 2014, and the Russians better again view Lvov as a goal that needs to be secured/pacified/neutralized.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 22 2022 19:50 utc | 131

@133 Before everybody starts freaking out note that this piece of 'news' came from Andrew @ 77 who probably got it from Semyon Pegov aka "WarGonzo"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFkNBpETBIQ

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 19:54 utc | 132

I read commenter "the pessimist" as the latest concerned obfuscator at the bar

Russia made it very clear when they started their military operation what the goals were and those goals are not limited to Ukraine and those that continue to spew such BS at MoA are paid to obfuscate reality.

As to Poland entering Ukraine, I suspect they can stomp and scream and shout all they want in Poland but Russia will be more than happy to advance their Poland part of their demands as part of the Ukraine military operation if they set foot in current Ukraine boundaries....maybe some real shock and awe.....

You folks make it sound like there is more than one God of Mammon empire and it is all so complex......pearl clutching....so concerned now but not for the past decade of war crimes in Ukraine.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 22 2022 20:01 utc | 133

NG @ 3 said;"These people hate simple and rather populist answers for simple problems because it would render them useless; thus their disdain for real democracy and the voice of the people. I think this is something else where Putin and Xi are on the same page."

This thought represents 99% of the Western MSM take on the ongoing class war...(which, by the way, is never mentioned.)..

Posted by: vetinLA | May 22 2022 20:02 utc | 134

pretzelattack | May 22 2022 19:46 utc | 137

..in the long run I think dedollarization and cancelling debts to the US is going be necessary so the US can't continue funding its war machine via Europe and using the IMF and World Bank to make colonies of independent nations in Asia, Central and South America, and Asia.

For sure the global power of the dollar, and of globalist institutions starting but by no means ending with the IMF and World Bank, needs to be broken.

That's the main thing which is causing me to come around to the idea that maybe it is better for Russia to drag out the SMO rather than to have smashed Ukraine's armed resistance as fast as possible, as I originally thought - maybe the gradually unfolding self-disaster of the sanctions, aggravating the pre-existing financial crisis of the empire, will end up being the Verdun attrition that breaks the dollar's economic power.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 22 2022 20:03 utc | 135

@ William Gruff | May 22 2022 18:47 utc | 117

Thanks for at least treating it analytically, rather than consenting to feed it.

Most folks -- ordinary friends and relatives I bump into here in the Bay Area -- display a startlingly receptive knee-jerk Russophobia, flicked on like a toggle-switch. I can't understand how they got so intellectually confined, but they express no interest in freeing their minds. What can I do?

Some folks -- just once in a very blue moon -- express a sincere interest in apparent contradictions. The best conversations, here in MoA, are when a couple of such blue lunatics dive into dialectics.

On the other hand, you might riposte, responses to insincere queries can convey good information for barflies in general -- but are you really telling us something we don't know, or only swatting away another professional annoyance? If the latter, be assured they won't learn a thing; and they'll be back with a new handle and another equally idiotic, obviously insincere query, tomorrow.

What's the harm of it all? It makes the thread longer than it needs to be. It wastes everyone's time incrementally more and more, like a denial of service attack. Please don't play -- you'll never win their stupid game.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 20:07 utc | 136

Posted by: Trotzki | May 22 2022 14:28 utc | 35

Again you completely miss the point and are forced to tell lies in order to have an appearance of good faith debate.

There is no proof that Russia was "shoring up" separatists; rather that Ukraine, with NATO help, was - at the same time as criminalizing the Russian language - relentlessly shelling the Donbas. Even the UN's monitoring body couldn't fudge the vast disparities in who was doing the bombing and who was getting bombed. It wasn't close.

Comparing the illegal invasions and destructions of countries half a world away from Uncle Scam to Russia's actions taken on her own border in response to a growing military and humanitarian threat is as disingenuous as you can get. Ridiculous.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 20:10 utc | 137

psychohistorian | May 22 2022 20:01 utc | 140

Take a hike with your worries. I have actually been to Ukraine, Crimea, and Russia multiple times and have been following events there with keen interest and worry since 2005.

We need more clear-eyed analysis in this place - neither trolls of any flavor, nor those whose glasses are always rosy.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 22 2022 20:13 utc | 138

I can't help but find it darkly amusing that after all the talk in Western corporate media about Russia and Putin looking to expand their borders, it was Poland who did it first as several of us here have predicted. LOL

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 20:17 utc | 139

143
Ironic .
Russophobia developed in the Territory of California after massive Russian immigration from Tsarist ambitions.
The Monroe Doctrine had little to do with S.America,Britain continued to rule that by mercantile means until wwI cut trade
routes.Seems US dna has ingrained Russophobia from way back then.Alaska was leased, not sold, according to the Russians.
History is a set of lies agreed to.

Posted by: winston | May 22 2022 20:19 utc | 140

@ the pessimist | May 22 2022 20:13 utc | 145 who told me to take a hike

Actually, I am back from a bike ride but thanks for the interest in my health.

Please share your clear-eyed analysis of the civilization war over public/private finance, or are you going to posit it doesn't exist?

Please tell the bar how you think the military action in Ukraine will meet Russia demands for security from NATO by ending with Ukraine.

Whine and snivel some place else.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 22 2022 20:22 utc | 141

@146 Did Poland expand its borders? I must have missed it.

I know Duda was in Kiev recently seeing his pal.....did he take a piece home with him?

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 20:32 utc | 142

@ William Gruff | May 22 2022 19:23 utc | 129

My predictions are otherwise.

I reckon the RF will settle for those areas where they will have the support of the majority of the citizens, the east and the south. What could they possibly want with the rest of it? They will never win elections there. The RF must know that no deal will ever be honoured by the Ukrainian puppet government so they will only take what they can hold by force. I know that won't achieve denazification but I doubt that Sun Tzu ever recommended being honest about ones military objectives. The RF will obviously try to set up a new federated state (Novorossiya?) in those areas and support it militarily till they can support themselves.

The fighting will eventually peter out as the RF digs in at the new frontier and the Ukrainian rump state will basically collapse. At that point I would not be surprised if the Poles move into Galicia and the Rumanians and Hungarians reoccupy some of their old territories under the guise of humanitarian intervention. What is left of Ukraine will probably recognise how cynically they have been used by the west (and the US in particular) and do their own de-nazification.

Or maybe things will go nuclear, at which point all bets are off.

Posted by: MarkU | May 22 2022 20:34 utc | 143

149

Have you been keeping up with the thread?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3489364-president-zelensky-announces-special-status-to-poles-in-ukraine.html

See post 121:

Draft bill announced today in Ukraine will allow Polish police and army act on the territory of Ukraine, Polish citizens to be elected in Ukraine and have access to military secrets.

That's the first step. Also see posts 51 and 74.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 20:40 utc | 144

@ Trying to keep up. I don't think Poland's borders have expanded quite yet.

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 20:49 utc | 145

@Hidari #67

A bit less hilarious.

Guardian:

Syria’s barrel bomb experts in Russia to help with potential Ukraine campaign

Over 50 specialists skilled in delivering crude explosive working with Putin’s forces

Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe.

Intelligence officers say more than 50 specialists, all with vast experience in making and delivering the crude explosive, have been in Russia for several weeks working alongside officials from Vladimir Putin’s military.

Their arrival is understood to be one factor behind US and European warnings that the Russian military may have been preparing for the use of chemical weapons in the conflict

https://tinyurl.com/2p8537db

The scary thing is that they don't even try to make the lies look true anymore.

Posted by: Leuk | May 22 2022 20:50 utc | 146

Posted by: Trotzki | May 22 2022 20:44 utc | 152

Spare us your regurgitated State Department bollocks. A couple of things:

1) Even if Russia was actively helping the separatists in Donbas, which it literally borders, it was nothing compared to the "lethal aid" and military assistance being given to the Ukra-Nazis by the US and FUK/NATO. It was the former that presented numerous diplomatic solutions to the EU and US community which - when not outright rejected (see: Nov 2021 - Feb 2022) - were never treated seriously (see: Minsk I and II) by the latter.

But I'm sure you'd be fine with China and/or Russia and/or Iran staging multiple coups there to install hostile actors (pun intended) bent on violently eradicating the English language and Americans from their borders and stationing Chinese/Russian/Iranian weaponry and nukes there. Same goes for the State Department.

But do as "we" say, not as we do right? Clown.

2) Re: Crimea, why don't you ask the people there whether they'd rather be aligned with a NotZee coddling fool who reneged on his promises to negotiate a peace with Donbas and who was installed by the aforementioned bad NATO/FUKUS actors by way of a bloody and violent coup. Oh wait, someone already did: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/03/20/one-year-after-russia-annexed-crimea-locals-prefer-moscow-to-kiev/?sh=116aa6cf510d

Kindly piss off with your state sanctioned concern trolling.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 20:52 utc | 147

Alaska was leased, not sold, according to the Russians.
History is a set of lies agreed to.
Posted by: winston | May 22 2022 20:19 utc | 147

Actually not. Putin is on record as joking that Alaska was sold for a small amount of money, then he quipped about how cold Alaska is and that Russia has plenty of land like that so why would they need Alaska.

Posted by: K | May 22 2022 20:53 utc | 148

RE: My comment @156 -

Word processor user error. Paragraph should read:

What about Canada or Mexico (or Cuba)? But I'm sure you'd be fine with China and/or Russia and/or Iran staging multiple coups there to install hostile actors (pun intended) bent on violently eradicating the English language and Americans from their borders and stationing Chinese/Russian/Iranian weaponry and nukes there. Same goes for the State Department.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 20:53 utc | 149

@ polish NATO apologist and apparent not-zee lover:

Borders aren't redrawn on maps overnight; as far as the 'race to expand' goes, Poland is currently very much in the lead according to official Ukrainian government actions. This despite the frequent cries of Putin's "expansionism" and such. Hence, I stand by my statement and prediction: Ukraine will cede territory to Poland in part as a ploy to drag NATO into the conflict.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 20:59 utc | 150

@146 Now you're being silly. My problem was with your fait-accompli statement about Poland's borders @146.

There's obviously something fishy going on with Galicia but I think we need to stick to facts. Borders haven't changed yet.

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 21:07 utc | 151

I've heard rumors that unformed Polish troops were spotted in Western Ukraine, nothing on RT about it, so I assume these are just more of the NATO advisors who were already there and someone just got spooked and started claiming that the Poles are trying to take Lviv now.

Posted by: Kadath | May 22 2022 21:10 utc | 152

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 21:07 utc | 160

At this point I do view it as fait accompli. Whether borders are redrawn in the next few years or not, Poland has in fact been granted authority in parts of Ukraine which is the first step even if it's the only *official* step (which I don't think it'll be). There's also the other side of the coin - namely, that we're being told Putin will annex huge swathes of Ukraine - I don't see any borders drawn there *yet* either.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 21:15 utc | 153


it's a very sad life for a person who comes to an intelligent blog like this only to argue. But then i know many people in the real world who do the same. I find such people to be a huge waste of time but this is a free speech bar. So there we have it.

On another note our brand new OZ PM has been sworn in despite not having a majority sufficient to form government and is immediately flying to Japan for a Quad meeting.
Business as usual with our "new" governmentt already demonstrating that our allegience to US foreign policy is far more important than our irrelevant domestic governance.
The US is acting so desperate these days.
Just Imagine an OZ PM saying sorry I have a country to run, can we reschedule?

Posted by: K | May 22 2022 21:17 utc | 154

The Poland / Galicia / Ukraine thing has only been labeled as a "conspiracy theory" by the usual NATO suspects. In the past 8 years, I think most of us should have learned that its the FUKUS/NATO bloc that traffics in conspiracy theories.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-spy-chief-says-us-poland-plotting-division-ukraine-2022-04-28/

Don't know about anyone else, but I have more trust in the statements coming out of the Russian Federation's government than I do in what Washington and London tell me. Fool me once...

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 21:21 utc | 155

MarkU @150: "What could they [Russia] possibly want with the rest of it [Nazified Ukraine]? They will never win elections there."

Correct, if the western Ukraine is split off into its own country there is no way a government friendly to Russia will get elected there anytime soon. If most of the country is kept whole, on the other hand, and bans on anti-Nazi parties and media are outlawed, and the Nazis are criminalized and public support for them IS outlawed and very publicly prosecuted, then national elections will very likely swing exactly the way Russia wants: neutrality and neighborliness.

Keep in mind that the assertions in western media about Nazis being a small minority in the Ukraine are actually true. Once the Nazis are purged from the power they acquired in 2014 then they are not likely to be allowed back in by the Ukrainian population without another violent event like the coup that takes the people by surprise.

My bet: A tipping point will be reached in Russia's Special Military Operation (after Kharkov and Odessa are denazified) where Zelensky will sue for peace unconditionally. This tipping point will occur when enough Nazis have been exterminated that Zelensky can get away with surrendering the Ukraine to Russia without getting assassinated. At this point Zelensky with flip a full 180 degrees in his public persona and become a huge fan of Putin and everything Russian. The Russians will keep Zelensky in power until a new constitution is drafted and new elections and referendums held.

Now the question is if Galicia will go quietly when Zelensky surrenders and remain part of the Ukraine or will they secede? If they secede then the war might continue, with the Nazis being the separatists this time.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 22 2022 21:21 utc | 156

@162 Thanks for the clarification (though I could have done without the insult).

I don't know what Duda's game is but I think Poland will have its hands full with Galicia.

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 21:29 utc | 157

The reality!
The outcome of the fighting is decided.
What isn't is the extra lives to be lost and damage to the countries ability to recover in what time.
What are the geopolitical consequence that will play out.
What state will Europe be in a year or so given the totally dreadful political responses being.
It's over.
Again the only question is.
What are the consequences?
For the EU.
The US.
Russia.
Ukraine.
Who's the most advantaged by this war?

Posted by: Jpc | May 22 2022 21:29 utc | 158

Just Imagine an OZ PM saying sorry I have a country to run, can we reschedule?

Posted by: K | May 22 2022 21:17 utc | 163

Cute that you think the elected heads of state run the country. I suggest you take a couple of days and rewatch "Yes, Minister" and "Yes, Prime Minister". Easily the best documentaries on parliamentary democracy ever made, the comedy is just a bonus.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | May 22 2022 21:29 utc | 159

It's absolutely necessary, at times, to resort to psychical violence, and, "punch a bully in the face", to protect oneself. It's an acknowledged human right.

Russia's SMO is that act, only on a national stage.

Posted by: vetinLA | May 22 2022 21:32 utc | 160

Reposting from non Ukraine thread
Towards some policy change in France ?
As mentioned by some contributors in previous thread dedicated to wheat matters, there may be a new political political tendency in France as to Ukraine :
- Macron talked about a need for négociation; war would not be enough to find a way to exit current phase. Not stupid...
- his new minister for foreign affairs is a former close aid of Chirac when the latter refused to take part to the US war against Irak.
Indeed, Catherine Colonna (I spent some time with her in a French training program) - unless she dramatically U-turned- is representative of the traditional French Gaullist stance of "Europe from Atlantic to Ural", not aligned at Chirac's time on the US neocon team (still in power in DC, as the democratic party welcomed them strangely enough) she had got to know when acting as speaker for President of France Chirac. As was mentioned by a MoA contributor, she acted as OSCE chief during two years in 2017-19, and should be fully aware of the Donbass conflict.
Will France (as well as Germany and Italy) be determined enough to question and eventually leave the anglo-saxon (and European Commission) axis ? Will she be in a position to implement a more traditional positioning of France as a go-between ? The jury is still out, and I would not trust Macron very much, but Catherine's designation brings some hope to me

Posted by: Daniel | May 22 2022 21:34 utc | 161

Opport Knocks | May 22 2022 21:29 utc | 168

For oz, running the country is just a matter of turning the other two cheeks outwards and allowing US/UK to insert their foreign policy. Sex shops supply the lube of politics here.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 21:38 utc | 162

Draft bill announced today in Ukraine will allow Polish police and army act on the territory of Ukraine, Polish citizens to be elected in Ukraine and have access to military secrets.
Tom_Q_Collins | 22 maggio 2022 20:40 utc | 151

I don't know what the source of these claims is - from the attached link Ze did not say this; he said:
“Aside, I thank the Polish Sejm for the recently adopted law on assistance to Ukrainian citizens. This is an unprecedented decision, according to which our citizens who have been forced to move to Poland due to Russian aggression will receive almost the same rights and opportunities as Polish citizens. Legal residence, work, training, medical assistance and social security. This is a great step and a gesture of a great soul, of which only a great friend of Ukraine is capable.
And this step will not remain one-sided. In the near future I will present a similar, specular project to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. God forbid that Polish citizens ever need all these advantages under such conditions, under conditions of war."

However, I share the great fear that they are planning some mess (I wrote it a few days ago starting from Duda's speech on May 3)

Posted by: FZappa | May 22 2022 21:43 utc | 163

Leuk | May 22 2022 20:50 utc | 155

The media and propagandists have a very good understanding of the intelligence of western populations. It is a crowd avidly watching american choreographed wrestling.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 21:48 utc | 164

Opport Knocks @ 71
They appointed the government and cabinet, including a former State Dept. employee as Finance Minister. The CIA occupied the top floor of the SBU building in Kyiv and Ukrainians were not allowed to go there.

It was amazing, the finance minister and some of the others could not speak Russian or Ukrainian, only English. Basically a handful of US citizens placed in charge of another country. I cannot think of another country in modern history to have placed non citizens in cabinet ministerial level positions.


Posted by: circumspect | May 22 2022 21:49 utc | 165

circumspect | May 22 2022 21:49 utc | 174

Martyanov's term 404 is apt.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 21:54 utc | 166

That's the main thing which is causing me to come around to the idea that maybe it is better for Russia to drag out the SMO rather than to have smashed Ukraine's armed resistance as fast as possible, as I originally thought - maybe the gradually unfolding self-disaster of the sanctions, aggravating the pre-existing financial crisis of the empire, will end up being the Verdun attrition that breaks the dollar's economic power.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 22 2022 20:03 utc | 142

That's been my working assumption from the get go. As that go-economic campaign goes so goes the result of the kinetics in Ukraine.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 22 2022 21:59 utc | 167

That's been my working assumption from the get go. As that geo-economic campaign goes so goes the result of the kinetics in Ukraine.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 22, 2022 9:59:01 PM

Posted by: Scorpion | May 22 2022 22:00 utc | 168

Any word on NATO 'advisers' in the recently liberated Azovstal?

Posted by: David | May 22 2022 22:02 utc | 169

Posted by: Trotzki | May 22 2022 20:44 utc | 152

I know, don't feed the trolls but I cannot resist:

Here are some trotzkiists refuting your thesis of "imperialist Russia":

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/04/05/lett-a05.html

Posted by: Anonymous | May 22 2022 22:05 utc | 170

Posted by: dh | May 22 2022 21:29 utc | 166

No worries. I will say that some may - as I sometimes do - take indirect and oblique references to our posts without directly addressing the party in question as passive aggressive and insulting - to which I may (sometimes unreasonably) respond in-kind. But I do apologize about dropping the Not-Zee reference to you.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 22:06 utc | 171

Aleph_Null @ 143
Most folks -- ordinary friends and relatives I bump into here in the Bay Area -- display a startlingly receptive knee-jerk Russophobia, flicked on like a toggle-switch. I can't understand how they got so intellectually confined, but they express no interest in freeing their minds. What can I do?

I get the same but I find it best to just lay it on the line no matter what the consequences. The Left is the worst, followed by ex-military types. If you have your ducks lined up you can give them food for thought and expose the massive contradictions and propaganda.

Unfortunately they would have to work hard to get sourced material. With any google type searches you get the stacked hits 20 pages deep of bullshit. It is a real deal killer. One has to work hard to get some balance in their lives.

Posted by: circumspect | May 22 2022 22:11 utc | 172

Scorpion | May 22 2022 22:00 utc | 177

Warfare in the nuclear age. I suspect the anglo world plus their/our (depending o if you're European, anglo or other) European canon fodder are destined to be the white trash sweat shops of the future world.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 22:11 utc | 173

Any word on NATO 'advisers' in the recently liberated Azovstal?

Posted by: David | May 22 2022 22:02 utc | 178

The silence from both sides on this issue is deafening. I will wager $500 that was the main topic of the recent call from Austin to Shoigu. In exchange for a peaceful and orderly surrender, Russia would not disclose the NATO assets found in the ranks of the POWs.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | May 22 2022 22:17 utc | 174

Historically 2022 may said to mark the point at which the 21st century truly broke with its predecessor. If Eric Hobsbawm were alive he would have to decide between:

The Short 20th Century: 1914-1991 (fall of the USSR)

The Slightly Longer 20th Century: 1914-2001 (9/11) or 1919-2001 (beginning with end of Empires, Ottoman, Hapsburg, etc)

The Longish 20th Century: 1919-2021 or Long 20th Century: 1914-2022

I say this only because the dominant narratives that structured the world, especially after WW2, are over. When Israel can support Azov and Nazism no longer evokes the immediate moral reaction it once did you know that a generation with no ties to the 20th century and its issues is ascendant.

Posted by: Patroklos | May 22 2022 22:20 utc | 175

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/05/19/bxjj-m19.html

A bit on the Canadian support for Ukranazis/fascists, the actual German Nazis and the OUN; WSWS has some of the only legible and cogent commentary on the situation coming from the modern Western "left."

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 22:22 utc | 176

That document dating the Polish takeover of whatever parts of Ukraine on 22nd proved correct.

I suspect that before this is over, OUN will go back to its origins - fighting the Poles. For Putin, there are many ways to ski nazi cat. Nato will have to deal with its own offspring.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 22:24 utc | 177

Posted by: Opport Knocks | May 22 2022 21:29 utc | 168

LOL my Aussie humour escapes you.

Naturally as a colony of HM we have had the pleasure of endless re-runs of such soft satirical shows as Yes Minister the prototype loveable buffoons for your Boris character, but here in OZ we do more cutting political comedy. imo that is.

Have you ever watched "Utopia" or" The Hollowmen" ?
For all round in your face, non PC cultural satire I recommend "Bondi Hipsters" and "Soul Mates"

You'll find nothing like these in the world, however I do understand that our local humour is not always funny to all cultures.

Posted by: K | May 22 2022 22:25 utc | 178

mmm.. skin not ski a nazi cat.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 22:27 utc | 179

@ William Gruff | May 22 2022 21:21 utc | 165

You may be right, I hope so. Any outcome in which the RF and the Russian speaking Ukrainians get something approximating to justice without anyone getting nuked is a good outcome. But will Zelensky ever be a free agent? can he be trusted anyway? I'm not convinced the Ukrainian/US side is agreement capable. I fear that both of our predictions may be over-optimistic, the US specialises in doubling down on stupid as we know.

Posted by: MarkU | May 22 2022 22:28 utc | 180

The Longish 20th Century: 1919-2021 or Long 20th Century: 1914-2022

Posted by: Patroklos | May 22 2022 22:20 utc | 184

Nice. I'd say 1913-2022. Fed Reserve creation in USA.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 22 2022 22:37 utc | 181

MarkU | May 22 2022 22:28 utc | 189 "But will Zelensky ever be a free agent?"

He is Jew apparently. Take a look at the amount of money the western world is throwing at Ukraine. He is a free agent alright, very much following the money with what he thinks of as a safety net - a British passport. He however seems to have no idea about all the exotic poisons Putin has give to the Brits.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 22:44 utc | 182

Of course. Like there is no proof there were any Russian troops occupying Crimea. Just little green men from

Posted by: Trotzki | May 22 2022 20:44 utc | 152


Old news to frequent readers here:

RF standard troop compliment in Crimea before the late 2013 Nuland cookies-to-regime change, and during the 2014 Crimea referendum was 30,000. Many of those troops accompanied international election observers to prevent the potential of the mass killing that took place in Odessa.

Posted by: ERing46Z | May 22 2022 22:52 utc | 183

>>Those cheerleading Russia in invading their neighboring country: I want to see you cheerleading the next American invasion of Panama and Cuba.
Posted by: Trotzki | May 22 2022 14:28 utc | 35>>

You are serious with this? This type of absolute equivocation argument is a straw man. But let's use an apt argument. northern Mexico or Southern Canada is and has been predominately American. Then Mexico or Canada joins with "Russia!!!" and Canada/Mexico, with Russian training, begins militarily fighting and assaulting these predominately American areas that border on America. Now it is important to note, the predominately America area was able too democratically elect a president who recognized the American areas. But eventually a mob (in part helped by Russia!!!) got rid of that president. Fast forward after this, there are a number of agreements made over time on numerous levels that will guarantee the American area of Canada or Mexico will not be crushed under the Russia!!! thumb. But all agreements, literally every single one, were broken by Canada or Mexico with reported urging by Russia!!!. In the meantime, Russia!!! is building up the military of Canada or Mexico. In the interim, Mexico or Canada went about a systemic cancelling and scrubbing of anything American in these American areas of Southern Canada or Northern Mexico including the people of American descent being sent for extra judicial processing. So After reading this, it would be no surprise that "Trotski" concludes: Yea man, how can anyone support these lowly separatists or America or America on its border stepping in.
Not only beyond inane but standard western media propaganda BS

Posted by: Corsair66 | May 22 2022 23:08 utc | 184

Rusia sould send a nuke to Warsaw as a wake up call
What they are doing is unacceptable.

Posted by: Andrew | May 22 2022 23:09 utc | 185

Unfortunately they would have to work hard...
Posted by: circumspect | May 22 2022 22:11 utc | 181

Unfortunate indeed, that I find myself faced with the challenge of advocating reality. I don't know why I do this. On any number of subjects, my life experience has taught me that people would prefer to select their own reality. They have no interest in working hard, developing sound sources of information, so that they can be as depressed as me. Why the heck should they? They're human, after all.

Then again: Why do I keep seizing on such unpopular aspects of reality? Post-Christian new-age pop-theology places each of us in total control over what kind of reality to inhabit: naughty or nice. I keep finding naughty realities, and that's just not nice.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 23:17 utc | 186

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 22 2022 13:34 utc | 13

I used to say Putin for President and George Galloway for Vice President - when I wasn't saying General Zod for President. Various people ran General Zod For President Web sites every election cycle. You will bow down before Zod!

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2022 23:22 utc | 187

Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2022 23:22 utc | 196

Who is zod?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 23:25 utc | 188

The scary thing is that they don't even try to make the lies look true anymore.
Posted by: Leuk | May 22 2022 20:50 utc | 155

They are like producers of horror movies. Their target is the emotionnal brain. Once it's done, it doesn't matter if the details of the narrative looks true.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | May 22 2022 23:29 utc | 189

@ Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 22:44 utc | 191

I was aware that Zelensky is Jewish and yes he has his exit covered.

I'm not sure what you meant by the poisons thing though. If you meant it metaphorically then I agree but if you were alluding to the Novichok or Polonium 214 stories then I can make a very good case they are bullshit. Am I right in my impression that you are Australian?
If so then I invite you to consider that if you were a UK resident you would have heard a lot more about those cases. I don't particularly want to do the homework but you are a respected MOA regular and if you are unconvinced I will present my case.

Posted by: MarkU | May 22 2022 23:30 utc | 190

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 15:42 utc | 63

Agreed. Yet we all fall for it every time, including me. Mostly because we fear that someone else, some lurker who has never posted, might read the troll's crap and believe it. But, hey, everyone is not our responsibility. Let fools be bamboozled by trolls. Everyone is responsible for their actions and the consequences.

If the trolls take over the thread, b will take action.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2022 23:35 utc | 191

[a] Basically a handful of US citizens placed in charge of another country. [b] I cannot think of another country in modern history to have placed non citizens in cabinet ministerial level positions.
Posted by: circumspect | May 22 2022 21:49 utc | 174

Let me help you.

First, some specificity is in order.
By "modern" do you mean today or this year? The 20th or 21st?
Japan, Palastine, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq -- each governed by surrender to NATO, ahem, supervised democracy

17th or 18th centuries centuries when FR, UK, NL appeared in N.A., cradle of the US?
First Nations formerly-known-as savage tribes to UK, CA, and US governors and later interior ministries.
US Spanish War invasions of PH, Caribbean CU, HT, and PA immediatly come to mind, following British IN and British HK. China only recently managed to "self-deport" some foreign nationals from the High Court's colonial rules and assert "independent" constitutional and National Security laws there.

Or the period to which western historians typically refer -- 1200 CE to present? I would. There are many more examples of OLD WORLD conquests that "placed" subjects of the several kingdom "in charge of another country" --needless to say, operated by central Eur|asian autocrats in the same mode perfected by Roman and "Hellenized" coloni since the 4th centuries BCE.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 23:36 utc | 192

Lots of concern trollesque comments here, there will be wheat and chaff thown into the mix and more to come, it’s the nature of things, one thing for sure, Russia is winning and any military that wants to take Russia on in a land war needs their heads examined. The only debate is how much territory they will take to satisfy their security concerns.

Posted by: Oh | May 22 2022 23:39 utc | 193

It's been three months since the initial start of the SMO, so let's have a brief review about Russia, Russians and Putin.

Russia promotes the vision of the UN Charter and the Law that flows from it.

Russians play chess, not poker, and thus might feint but never bluff. Russians also feel they only need to say something once, and thus very very rarely repeat themselves.

Putin is as Russian as a Russian can get. And on top of that, he's brilliant as in extremely intelligent. Plus, Putin is the lead member of a team of very intelligent Russians. Despite appearances, the vast majority of decisions are made collectively.

Putin and his team put forth a set of proposals based on OSCE Security Treaties that had already been consented to by all OSCE members. The type of response to the December proposal informed the team that all NATO/OSCE members were going to break their treaty obligations, thus the military technical response would be forthcoming. At a briefing in November, Putin was again informed of the Genocidal conditions in Donbass, and thus the probability of a Russian version of an R2P operation was highly likely. As we've seen as the SMO has unfolded, other distressing items of intel were known, adding weight to the decision made. Then there was the Munich performance and the fantastical escalation in shelling which IMO made for consensus within Russia's Security Council. The steps taken afterward are all known and done to keep within the legality of the UN Charter.

We know Putin and team have promised Ukraine will be demilitarized, pacified and denazified; and for the latter to be successful, a very long period of probation/tutelage/chaperoning and economic rehabilitation will be required for the roots of the problem have been present since the end of WW1--yes WW1--5+ Generations of historical memory that needs adjusting until no dormant seeds remain.

Now all of that's just related to the immediate problem at hand. The bigger problem is that of Neoliberalistic Fascism led by the Outlaw US Empire and the UK where the modern roots of that disease reside and have reinfected Europe. Of the Russians on the Security Council, I know the views of three--Lavrov, Patrushev and Medvedev--toward this greater problem of Western Fascism that nurtured and promoted Ukrainian Nazism: It must be irradicated. Putin hasn't been as specific, but IMO he agrees but is cautious about the cost of the task. The other views are currently unknown by me. But let's revisit the security proposal. No Offensive weapon systems inside nations on Russia's borders and rolling NATO back to its 1997 status were two besides concluding new agreements based on the concept of Indivisible Security, which happens to be what the UN Charter says should be the norm.

So, based on Russia's bottom-line for its security and the remaining problem of Global Fascism in the form of the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO vassals, what conclusion can be drawn?

What I see is a multigenerational struggle for the Multipolar World's formation atop the dying body of the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO/EU and other vassals--Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Ireland. Just as Russia cannot abide a Nazified Ukraine, it cannot abide a Fascist Europe. And what's being said about Russia also goes for China and those nations that will form the Multipolar World based on a revitalized and reformed UN. Falling with the Outlaw US Empire will be the 4,000+ year-long Class War between Debtors and Creditors as the world finally reverts to a communalistic basis emphasizing Win-Win, while Zero-sum becomes an historical relic.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 22 2022 23:48 utc | 194

Posted by: the pessimist | May 22 2022 18:50 utc | 118
"Gilbert Doctow has a piece up with a story about a ride with a Moscow taxi driver"

oh, please. Don't drag up that bullshit again.

"I tend to think that the planning for the operation was a contingency plan hastily pressed into service"

Yeah, go over to Martyanov's site and say that. See how long you last. You have no clue what you're talking about.

I won't bother with the rest of your nonsense. At least your handle - pessimist - is accurate.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2022 23:48 utc | 195

The Ukrainians seem to be scraping the bottom of the barrel manpower wise. Check out this article extract:

In their analysis of the threat from Belarus, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said last week that the presence of Belarusian forces on the border would probably prevent Ukraine from deploying support operations on its Donbas front.

Armed with AK47s and a few dozen men per position, the fighters hope the Belarusian border will not be used by invading forces again.

“We’ll be in the frying pan,” joked Vova, a man who volunteered to fight in the Donbas in 2014 and was in the Soviet army. Vova signed up to fight alongside his brother, Ihor, and his brother’s son, Maksym, on the second day of the war.

“They took the first 500 men in the queue that day, but there were over 800 of us,” said Ihor, sat between his brother and son at the makeshift barracks near the border.

“I’ve got hypertension, he’s got hypertension, he’s on insulin,” said Ihor, pointing around the room at the middle-aged and pension-aged men. “And then the other part of the unit is younger guys like Maksym.”

Ihor and Maksym were working on a construction site in Kyiv on the morning of the invasion. They rushed back to the Zhytomyr region, where their family live, to sign up. Territorial defence units in Ukraine are made up of people who fight in the same region as where they live.

The men and a few women in the unit said some of them knew each other from before the war. In almost every other case, there is only a few degrees of separation.

“In some cases, it was like, ‘Oh, your grandmother knows my grandfather, maybe we’re brothers’,” said Ihor, who added that fighting among people from his own region gave him a great sense of duty and motivation. Sign up to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday morning at 7am BST

The unit said they do not have the back up of heavy artillery units, but that they were fortunate to have local geography on their side. The miles-long narrow roads that lead down from the border are surrounded by thick forests which cover the deep, swampy ground.

“No one has ever managed to hold this territory for that reason,” said Ihor, the unit’s military press secretary, speaking about battles around the northern border during the second world war.


Source: https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/ukraine-forces-prepare-for-possible-attack-on-belarusian-border/ar-AAXzkNZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=77b0cbf41db84f91a41d648d6d32e02b

Posted by: Aristonicus | May 22 2022 23:49 utc | 196

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 22 2022 20:01 utc | 140
"I read commenter "the pessimist" as the latest concerned obfuscator at the bar"

Agreed. These people throw around assertions like "Russia has sustained heavy damage", blah, blah, blah, with zero evidence and against all reporting so far. Then they start Russia "advice" which suspiciously sounds like "surrender now and make a deal that saves Ukraine."

Fuck that shit.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2022 23:53 utc | 197

MarkU | May 22 2022 23:30 utc | 199

Wasn't having a shot at you. I was thinking of polonium and novichok and anglostan now grabbing all 'Russian' assets including those of the 'expat' oligarchs. The comedian is nothing more than a consumable to be used in the anglo war against all others.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 23:55 utc | 198

@ Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2022 23:35 utc | 200

I agree, the best way to deal with trolls is to avoid feeding them. On this thread a very obvious troll got a response from multiple well-meaning people and that gave him/her an opportunity to post again and again, even one response will provoke a reply. Lurkers on MOA are extremely unlikely to fall for regurgitated corporate media bullshit, trust them to be perceptive enough to know, grit your teeth and ignore them.

Posted by: MarkU | May 22 2022 23:59 utc | 199

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 22 2022 23:25 utc | 197

Zod is a supervillain in the DC Superman comics. He was a general on Superman's home planet, got sent to the Phantom Zone prison, broke out, and is now running for President in the US. His platform is you give everything you own to him and he will protect you. Sounds pretty much standard American politics. :-)

The Mighty General Zod For President 2024
https://www.facebook.com/TheMightyGeneralZod

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2022 0:03 utc | 200

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