Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 15, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-66

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on May 15, 2022 at 11:40 UTC | Permalink

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I recently posted a couple of articles on apparent Russian losses on Snake Island and that now famed river crossing in Donbass, both of which subsequently turned out to be either inconclusive or inaccurate. My bad. Still costly for Russia, but overall more likely indicative of Ukrainian defeats. My point was, this is costing Russia too and how long can this go on for? I find the whole one sided Russian cheer squad reporting just as idiotic as the whole Slava Ukraina hysteria.

Despite posting in good faith, i was accused of 'concern trolling', which is apparently the new favourite term du jour for anyone sharing information about Russian losses on very one-sided pro Russian sites, if nothing else, just as an attempt to balance the reporting.

Well, are people going to call Scott Ritter a 'concern troll' too now? at around 47:00 of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4SlSILtlpc
In his own words, he has made a 'radical shift' on his perception of the battlefield.
He begins to point out some of his concerns about Russia's inability to make decisive progress and interdict Nato heavy weapons in Ukraine, either through lack of capability, indecision or incompetence.

I have also expressed my confusion with Russia's approach and calculus thus far, which i would summarise as essentially unwilling to escalate in Ukraine, hoping the economic war will pay off before having to up the ante on its military one. Russia appears willing to accept big losses like losing ships, countless men and equipment. How long can it continue doing so?

Particularly when issuing empty threats like not hitting 'decision making centres' (so far anyway) is Russia accurately calculating that its perceived weakness, real or not, is actually strengthening Nato's resolve? That resolve is materialising in lots of political capital and big time cash it will now have to contend with. Finland is not deterred to join Nato, that must be viewed as a massive strategic failure. Perhaps it is all part of a bigger trap...

Well, who is not to say that Lloyd Austin called Shoigu to make even more threats and explain where those 40 billion will be going to exactly, instead of assuming the US just wants a ceasefire because it expects to continue losing? I was wrong twice, happy to be wrong again..

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 11:55 utc | 1

Here's how an uneducated puppet looks like:

"Russia's reaction to Finland's NATO membership turned out to be more restrained than expected," Finnish President Sauli Niinistö

He thinks Finland has membership just because they beg for it :)))) You can't make this up.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 11:59 utc | 2

So Scott Ritter, who I have a lot of respect for and therefore concern over this, has overnight changed his view on the Ukraine war to unwinable as the West will “bleed it dry” with endless weapons flow. Any riposte? If Russia is stalemated maybe it will look back and find its big error was that it is in an existential war but did not treat it as such from the outset failing to take the gloves off early enough or heavily enough. Also underestimating the fact the US and collective West also viewed this as an existential battle to retain global hegemony and DID take the gloves off before Russia could secure victory and dictate terms. I hope he’s wrong because if theUS/NATO succeeds in its aims this will set back world peace and establishing equity in the sharing of resources for a generation.

Posted by: daisuke | May 15 2022 12:06 utc | 3

Ukraine won the Eurovision Contest with anywhere to catch from song of an impossible fusion of Ukrainian folk and US popular music and dance, horrible performance poorly rehearsed plus poorly elaborated horrible costumes, but, then yes, they made the nazi salute in front of the whole submitted Europe and called for the liberation of Azovstal, and the "televote" ( which we are to believe is not hackeable by the Atlantic Council...) gave them the "victory"...

https://t.me/NewResistance/8703

Attention to the fat guy in the middle who makes the nazi salute....

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 12:09 utc | 4

The concern trolls are starting early today. Russia maintains escalation dominance in Ukraine. There is telegram channel videos of the "O" group moving in Ukraine. They are the heavy assault BTGs. They were not used before and are being brought in now. The quotes Ritter also has discussed the attrition rate being around 15-1. This doesn't mean the Russians and LDNR forces are not taking losses. It does mean the VSU is losing at an incredible and unsustainable rate. Who's is being bled dry here? The VSU is over. As far as western weapons, I've seen pictures of 1 triple 7 in the Donbas and even it was supposedly captured.

(All notes are subject to me not being on the ground or privy to the Russian general staff meetings)

Posted by: MikeH | May 15 2022 12:18 utc | 5

Well, who is not to say that Lloyd Austin called Shoigu to make even more threats and explain where those 40 billion will be going to exactly, instead of assuming the US just wants a ceasefire because it expects to continue losing? I was wrong twice, happy to be wrong again..

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 11:55 utc | 1

"Concern trolling" is an accusation of insincere sympathy with someone elses problems, usually with the opposite intent. In this case it seems accurate.

At the moment, I think the Russians are not in a hurry, and that is the cause of the confusion for people who think they are or should be.

===

"Russia's reaction to Finland's NATO membership turned out to be more restrained than expected," Finnish President Sauli Niinistö

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 11:59 utc | 2

It seems premature to talk about what the reaction is. All this talking smack is not going to help either. One thinks of the B. Dylan tune "Idiot Wind".

Posted by: Bemildred | May 15 2022 12:21 utc | 6

I don't follow everything Ritter has to say but if he said so he probably needs to take a nap.
Already there's not much army left, among captured soldiers are 50 and 70 year olds. Those trapped in Donbass post messages online about losing battles and all commanders leaving them alone to die.
Sure, the "West" will turn to terrorism, both inside Ukraine and try to target Russia and Belarus. All those manpads were sent to shoot down civilian aircraft in the future, they surely knew they don't work well on Russian military planes. Just like those $80bn weapons "forgotten" in Afghanistan.

And I doubt Russia is in a hurry. The sanctions destroy EU and hurt US, why not let them be as long as possible? Also elensky is torturing his own people by using civilians as shield and sending everyone to die unprepared. I doubt Russian precision missile count is below 90% and even if it is, all factories work to restore it. This is just training for Finland, Sweden and whatever Obama plans next.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 12:21 utc | 7

From my point of view seems to me, that US getting shocked looking on the map UA. If UA going to loose access to sea ,what use is for US to be sponsor of UA ? None! No access, no chance to robbing UA natural sources, food etc.etc etc.etc. And still amounting sums of money they never, ever go to get backs.Worst deal done from 2014.(8 years)
Not even Afghanistan was so bad (20 years)

Posted by: BB Rad | May 15 2022 12:23 utc | 8

I watched the Ritter interview.
He said Russia is winning in the East, thier goal.
He said they will have to find a way to address the West's build-up in the West which is turning this into a war.
His remarks should not be taken out of context.

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | May 15 2022 12:28 utc | 9

I believe Ritter is impressed by large sums of money. His strength is military not economic thinking. Ukraine is lacking trained people and a high level general staff. I doubt you can buy either with money. Maybe some mercenaries, but they won't be trained for the combined arms warfare, that is needed in this war and I think more and more mercenaries understand, that they would be in to die. Ukraine can't conscript endlessly people. In 2021 about 140,000 boys were born in Ukraine. This doesn't include Krim, but does include Donetsk und Luhansk. Up to a week ago or so, there were realistic estimates of > 50,000 losses (killed, severly injured, surrendered) on the Ukrainian side. How long can this go on? The losses are higher than the birth rate and much higher than the birth rate in the areas controlled by Ukraine.

Posted by: Martin | May 15 2022 12:31 utc | 10

I watched the video as well and Scott Ritter is alarmed, by recent developments, and has done an about-face in his assessment of the war. He notes that howitzers are getting through, Russia either unable or unwilling to stop their transit, that they are having their effect; albeit on the periphery, Russia is suffering significant losses and that “demilitarization” is not in fact taking place. He fears that Ukraine still has significant forces, what with weaponry getting through, to change the calculus of the war, in much the way Russia did, vs Germany, in WWII. His panic is palpable. Striking, given his ongoing stark dismissal of Ukraine’s prospects.

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 12:32 utc | 11

In the beginning of the SMO it was said that Ukraine had 2500-3000 tanks. Now Russia says they have destroyed more than 3000 tanks and other armored combat vehicles.

Somewhere, somehow, something doesn't match up. Please enlighten me.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 12:42 utc | 12

Scott Ritter may or may not be worth listening to. Certainly Russian forced do not hinge on his take. But his comments are not being taken out of context. He is in a panic. His earlier bravado is shattered.

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 12:43 utc | 13

It's "tanks + armored vehicles", nothing wrong. Poland alone sent 230 tanks two weeks ago. Other countries have sent many armored vehicles. Too much free time at home?

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 12:48 utc | 14

Read again: Armored COMBAT vehicles. Russia also says they have destroyed about 3000 other armored vehicles.

There is only one way tanks and ACVs received after 2/24 can make up the discrepancy. And that is if there are no tanks+ACVs left. The rate of destroyed tanks+ACVs is somewhat lower the last days, but nowhere near zero.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 12:58 utc | 15

rk 7

Obama is a CIA man, but mostly, he's an ass kisser - a yes man, a lead-by-committee, consensus, "kiss up, kick down" was his M.O., He is controlled by higher ups. He is susceptible to career-wrecking blackmail in that he is closeted gay.

He may be on the committee braintrust, ie: Nudleman Nulan, Kagans, Blinken and Nod.

But he is not a super powerful guru still running the country behind the scenes.

The Right gives him far too much credit. He was simply in it to do the bidding of the powerful and collect his many millions of dollars for his services (Perpetual War, Nothing for the commons, Vast rewards for the super rich).

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | May 15 2022 13:08 utc | 16

@ Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 12:42 utc | 12

"Somewhere, somehow, something doesn't match up. Please enlighten me."

While it is easy to see the bs behind the Ukraine MoD statements, from Ghost of Kiev etc... many Russia fanboys have a hard time admitting it is a game being played on both sides, perhaps not as extensively when one is winning, but nevertheless, to bs is human and Russians are no exception.

IMHO, the more one side is close to losing, the more it will bs and the more it will suppress unfavourable reporting, so in future, try to look at that as a measure of how things are actually progressing.

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 13:12 utc | 17

@Et Tu | May 15 2022 11:55 utc | 1

Well, are people going to call Scott Ritter a 'concern troll' too now? at around 47:00 of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4SlSILtlpc
In his own words, he has made a 'radical shift' on his perception of the battlefield.
I have felt uneasy about Scott Ritters approach for some time, he seems very US biased to me. The fact that he in his own word has made a 'radical shift' of his assessment in this situation where the main discussion is about when the inevitable Ukrainian collapse is going to happen makes me wonder. I have not heard any actual military arguments of note that would justify a 'radical shift'. Until I hear such arguments I am going to put less weight on Ritter's assessment.


Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 13:12 utc | 18

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 12:43 utc | 13

Can you chill, please? Scott Ritter sometimes uses unreliable sources such as Daily Mail/Telegraph with their claim that Putin fired 150 GRU officers, so his inference from time to time is wrong.
And anyway, the vast majority of the supplied armaments are too old to be of any use in the current battleground; the new NATO weapons take quite a lot of time to train so they are not an issue yet. The only succeful strategy that ukrainians are using at the moment is the mobile artillery strikes due to the superior intelligence provided by NATO recon.

Posted by: Bloke from block 8 | May 15 2022 13:14 utc | 19

Posted by: BB Rad | May 15 2022 12:23 utc | 8

You fail to mention Ukraine's main attraction : a naval port that would finally allow the US to be classified as resident in the Black Sea, and thus no longer subject to restrictions as far is its naval presence was concerned. They had tried for years to get such a port. The failed to get Sevastopol, then Turkey refused to cede them one of theirs. The Romanian coast was unsuitable. So US started building their port in Ukraine.

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | May 15 2022 12:28 utc | 9

This is not the first time that Scott Ritter expressed that he expects Poland to take over the West, Russia to take over the East, and Central Ukraine to become a waste land, is it? I remember that he was / is afraid that this will turn into a real war between Ukraine and Russia (which he says it is not yet, at the moment).

Posted by: Martina | May 15 2022 13:17 utc | 20

Re Scott Ritter’s recent re-assessment of the smo. If Putin really believes it’s existential, and if Ritter is correct then at some point Russia will be obliged to substantially raise the anti to demonstrate it is not bluffing.

Posted by: Krypton | May 15 2022 13:19 utc | 21

On Ritter saying that Russia isn't preventing weapons coming from the west.

Just last night 4 missiles destroyed what Ukraine called a military warehouse near Lviv. Guess what was in that warehouse. This was by far not the only such strike.

That one M777 (out of 90) that was shown did not have its typical satellite navigation and digital fire control system. Seems the U.S. removed those boxes before handing them over. It will have made them less precise.

Posted by: b | May 15 2022 13:24 utc | 22

I thought NATO and its Ukrainian HiWis had spent 8 years building a fortified line to draw Russia into the Donbass to face destruction - but since Russia came from the rear and let DPR face the LOC - the HiWis had abandoned fortified positions to retreat into populated areas and use civilians as cover.

Since Russia is moving over open flat ground satellites monitor and NATO passes intelligence to HiWis executing its strategy. It is clear Ukrainian artillery is located in towns and cities and as near to hospitals, residential areas, and schools as possible.

The part that surprises me though is the open door near Odessa into Romania. I understand they don't want Odessa to look like Mariupol, but am not clear how they avoid surprises from that quarter.

At some stage they will need to blind NATO by destroying satellites or AWACs. I am also surprised they have not rendered Azovstal dark and cut communications. Somewhere on Telegram I saw they had pigs down there in Azovstal which certainly gets rid of cadavers and provides meat.........

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 15 2022 13:28 utc | 23

To date, what has been correctly forecast about Russia's moves by various non propaganda analysts? Russia would not invade Ukraine. When it did all maps showed Russia making a large pincer move from south and north enclosing the entire Donbass front in a giant cauldron.
Instead we see the republics trying to break through the heavily fortified 7-8 year old frontline. Russian forces giving up ground north of Kharkiv? Kherson secures Crimea's water supply.

I think it was Jacques Baud who had worked with/for Nato in Ukraine said there were 100,000 nationalists in Ukraine. These forces will be well trained, well armed and motivated. The attrition rate of the canon fodder is very much in Russia/Donbass favour, but apart from Mariupol, it is unclear how much the nationalist force is degraded.

Russia is only using a tiny amount of its military force in Ukraine. Apart from removing the threat from the republics and securing Crimea's water supply, I am now wondering if this move is also seen by//used by Russia as a trigger - forcing the US to make its main move prematurely? Russia is certainly expecting a far wider war.

Ritter's view in his latest with McGovern I think is mostly correct, but rather than saying Russia is making a mistake, when it comes to Russia planning, its best to look under the bed and everywhere else to see what else is going on/ developing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 13:31 utc | 24

Like the US and the UK the EU is pledging huge amounts of taxpayers cash for Ukraine, wit many people now struggling to pay bills and heat their homes the USA's war on Russia will see Europeans and poorer American's suffer for years to come.

"Josep Borrell, the European Union's foreign policy chief, on Friday announced that the bloc would provide a further 500 million euros worth of military support to Ukraine."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 15 2022 13:41 utc | 25

@#9
Your concise summation is right on. To expand a little more.
1. Russia wins the East.
2. The US/NATO continues to escalate with weapons, sanctions, and mobilization using whatever personnel is available: Polish, Romanian, etc. In other words, defeating Ukraine is just the first battle between the US/NATO and Russia.
3. The Neocon crazies even envision first strike nuclear victory as a scenario and will resort to this if other means fail.
4. China/Russia may hope that the US economy runs out of gas and collapses before nuclear annihilation arrives.

Have any of you read "The Doomsday Machine" by Daniel Ellsburg? The same mindset of planning to figth and win a nuclear war infected many of the generals and planners in the 1950's. That same mindset exists today and there may not be enough sane people in power to check them. Apparently the same is true in Russia, albeit with more sanity in the decision making ranks.

Posted by: Musburger | May 15 2022 13:42 utc | 26

b | May 15 2022 13:24 utc | 22

Sat guidance wouldn't actually work under an e-war blanket anyway so you *could* just be looking at a risk calculation. A situation where you have the 'shiny bit' failing in an environment where it would be bad for publicity and morale.

Posted by: S.O. | May 15 2022 13:44 utc | 27

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 13:12 utc | 17

I generally believe the Russian numbers. When Russia reported 1,950 destroyed tanks+ACVs, Ukraine reported 1,850 of the same a few days later.

These numbers are interesting for multiple reasons. First of all they will affect how fast/slow it will take to break the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk line. The most important Ukrainian tank brigade is here. Is there even anything left of it?

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 13:45 utc | 28

@Paul Greenwood | May 15 2022 13:28 utc | 23

The part that surprises me though is the open door near Odessa into Romania. I understand they don't want Odessa to look like Mariupol, but am not clear how they avoid surprises from that quarter.

Russia steps up attacks on Ukraine’s rail network

On April 26, a Russian long range missile, reportedly fired from an aircraft operating over the Donbas region, hit the Pidyomnyy Mist bridge west of Odesa. This bridge carries the single track Odesa-Bilhorod/Izmail electrified railway, a road, and power cables. It forms the only transport link over the Dniester River to Ukrainian territory west of Odesa, close to the borders with Moldova and Romania.

Google Map: Pidyomnyy Mist bridge

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 13:48 utc | 29

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2022/05/06/some-ukraine-russia-backstory/#comment-156771
Some more balanced perspective than the cheering squads for the corrupt oligarchies.

Posted by: hunterson7 | May 15 2022 13:51 utc | 30

You can think MoD is lying but they're not. Those are armored combat vehicles in total, not tanks alone. Only Ghost of Kiev destroyed hundreds of airplanes at first, later they settled to a count of 40 or something like that.
Yesterday Ukr published a photo of a downed Ka but it was a photo from many years ago, accident near Moscow. They didn't even mirror it or crop it, like they usually do when they show the same photo 2-3x as being different events.
This is sad, stupid propaganda for brainwashed people, to support sanctions against themselves.

Also: NATO intends to increase its military presence in the Baltic region in order to ensure the security of Sweden and Finland before joining the alliance - Stoltenberg.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 13:51 utc | 31

Reply to Bloke ...

“Can you chill please ?”

Take your own advice ?

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 13:55 utc | 32

"Concern trolling" is an accusation of insincere sympathy with someone else's problems, usually with the opposite intent.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 15 2022 12:21 utc | 6

I've been wondering what people mean by that. Thanks for a concise definition.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 13:59 utc | 33

I had Fox News on while eating a light breakfast and one of the "stories" they mentioned was quoting someone in the UK MoD that the Russians had "lost 1/3rd" of their forces in Ukraine. If Russian casualties are such a big part of the propaganda battle space, how come the Ukies haven't plastered western media with the dead? I've seen lots of knocked out and destroyed Russian made armor but very few dead Russian soldiers. And "1/3rd" of what; the forces used so far in Ukraine, 1/3 of the active Russian military forces, 1/3rd of everything the Russians can levy over time such as with the reserves?? No context at all. But, I guess most of the American sheeple will buy such shit. What a joke...

Posted by: DakotaRog | May 15 2022 14:03 utc | 34

It shouldn't be forgotten that Scott Ritter wildly underestimated how long this operation would take (he thought Ukraine would be conquered by 200,000 Russian troops in....two weeks) and his predictions about what happens in the future should be taken with an extremely large amount of salt.

One thing that should be considered is that Russia is deliberately moving slowly. There is a historical exemplar for this. When Franco took Spain, he deliberately took his time, moving very slowly throughout the whole country in order to completely quash the Republican resistance.

But a number of things for the 'Russia is losing' crowd.

If Russia is losing why did the US just ask for a ceasefire?

If Russia is losing why don't they mobilise more troops?

If Russia is losing why are the Ukrainians, shrilly and with rising levels of hysteria prancing round from European capital to European (and North American) capital demanding more guns? If the Ukraine is on the point of winning, why do they need more guns?

As Putin has made clear throughout, he has no interest in regime change or, for that matter, the entire West of the country. He wants a Russian buffer state between US-controlled Ukraine and the Russian border. He wants to destroy the Ukrainian army as a viable fighting force and kill all the Nazis (something we should be encouraging him in doing, incidentally. I know it makes me sound old-fashioned but my personal opinion is that Nazis are bad).


When that's done (and it will be done by September at the latest) the war is over. Swathes of the East will be offered the choice of joining Russia or staying with the Ukies who hate them. If they join the Russians, well and good. If they vote to stay with the Ukies and become second-class citizens in their own country: that's their choice.

Presumably Russia and the Eastern parts of Ukraine (now retaken back into the Motherland) will have to be surrounded by an anti-fascist defence barrier like the so-called 'Berlin Wall' to keep out white supremacists, Nazis, White Power terrorists and the rest, who will infest Ukraine for decades to come. These people will instead wreak havoc in European capitals, which Europeans will be delighted with as it will facilitate an ever great crackdown on freedom of movement and freedom of information.

Posted by: Hidari | May 15 2022 14:07 utc | 35

In the discussion about manpower and material losses of both warring paties it is inevitable
of losses on both sides. It appears to me that nobody has accurate proven figures. It guess work depending on the sources they use. What I see is that both MoDprop is telling how much damage is done to the other party. I hope though, if true, the 15:1 ratio is in favor of Russia.

What I find interresting to follow is how many aircraft, heli's and Bayaktars keep showing up.
Sources from Telegram/MoD-Russia. They should have been all terminated in vieuw of pre-SMO figures of the Ukro-airforce.
A thing that keeps puzzeling me is the percentage of the Russian Armed Forces which is in action
in the SMO. Seen different percentages of 10% to 20% in different blogs. Most likely still hidden in the fog of war.

Posted by: DutchZ | May 15 2022 14:09 utc | 36

Et Tu | May 15 2022 11:55 utc | 1

Confused? Losing good faith? Concerned that you are unable to discern more than one side to this site?

Have you considered signing up for Putin's "Daily Briefing Email"? Every morning at 06:00 am (Moskva Time), you can receive his "Orders of the Day", plus usually, concise outlines of of the important factors informing his most significant orders and threats.

Best of all : you can reply directly to Vladimir Vladimirovich; inform him directly, without relying on the unreliable flunkies here, just exactly what kind of an idiot he is!

Posted by: Otter | May 15 2022 14:10 utc | 37

Another thing is that: Adorno was right. He was just decades ahead of the game. Adorno saw that in an advanced capitalist society, so-called 'popular' culture functions as an escape valve to 'let off' what might be revolutionary energies, and also facilitates corporate and pro-Western propaganda.


Artists fought against this for generations, with the endless trends of anti-capitalist movements in popular culture, but, eventually, they were defeated. The so-called 'Underground' is gone, forever. Almost all 'popular' music in the West now (and this has been true for the last 10/15 years) is really pro-corporate, pro-capitalist propaganda. CF the 'good, innocent fun' of the Eurovision Song Contest, which has, in the past, been used to promote Israeli Apartheid, and was (last night) used to promote Ukrainian pro-American Naziism. Propaganda, and far more insidious than more traditional forms of propaganda, because it doesn't present itself as being propaganda.

Cf also Chomsky's claim (entirely correct) that nowhere on planet Earth will you find a more indoctrinated, more 'mind controlled' populace than in the 'free' West.

Posted by: Hidari | May 15 2022 14:13 utc | 38

"Concern trolling" accusations are the ad hominem trolling of those who do not like to hear that which they do not want to hear.

Just like the US empire, you are only capable of projecting that which you are.

There is a lot of real estate between Russia fanboying and Neocon warmongering, sadly, it appears to be very sparsely populated.

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 14:16 utc | 39

DutchZ | May 15 2022 14:09 utc | 36 "Seen different percentages of 10% to 20% in different blogs."

From everything I have seen I suspect it to be slightly under 10%. I think much is held in reserve for the main event. Ukraine is entree.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 14:18 utc | 40

Any video I’ve seen of those 8 year heavily fortified lines shows quickly dug shallow and small dirt trenches with a few log and earth huts. Have read repeatedly of the millions of tons of concrete poured and have seen zero of that. Only useful fortification that seems to exist is being embedded in towns full of civilians. Russia remains reluctant to bomb civilian areas. It is hard to see that as a bad thing.

The M777 is a piece of crap. Titanium is cool stuff but there are real basic engineering limits. Ti is very flexible, to get past that it is necessary to use more of it and to use large section. By the time the flex is overcome basically you are back to the weight of steel. Maybe 5% lighter. Weight savings from Ti happens from careful engineering. Simply because the material is expensive engineers pay close attention. Or in a perfect world they do. The M777 is very light, designed for airlift. The mere fact that it is so light is enough to know it is under built. Priority was spending money to fatten contractors. Then delete the electronics and there ain’t much left. Just moving junk around the map. Let US spend their efforts playing their game.

Posted by: Oldhippie | May 15 2022 14:19 utc | 41

@Republicofscotland | May 15 2022 13:41 utc | 25
'Like the US and the UK the EU is pledging huge amounts of taxpayers cash for Ukraine, wit many people now struggling to pay bills and heat their homes'

Exactly and once those people really start 'feeling the pain'
A majority will wake and look past the propaganda for the real reasons.
It won't take long before they realise that their suffering was a deliberate choice that wasn't necessary - taken by their narcissistic, intellectually challenged ruling elites to support a corrupt Nazi themed US puppet state, at their expense.

Riots and Regime change could well be in the air.

Posted by: Iain | May 15 2022 14:21 utc | 42

@Hidari | May 15 2022 14:07 utc | 35

Very good summary on both Ritter and the prospects of the SMO in general. One thing I question though is

As Putin has made clear throughout, he has no interest in regime change or, for that matter, the entire West of the country. He wants a Russian buffer state between US-controlled Ukraine and the Russian border.
A "US-controlled Ukraine" is not acceptable, i.e. the current regime. One way or another it must go. The Russians have stated that Ukraine (i.e. "Rump Ukraine") must be neutral, no NATO, no EU, no Nazis, demilitarized.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 14:24 utc | 43

Some education: concern troll

Concern trolling involves someone opposing an idea or viewpoint, yet acting like they’re an advocate for the cause. A concern troll offers undermining criticisms under the guise of concern. Their goal is to sabotage the cause being discussed, and to inspire doubt among group members. This occurs in groups rallied around a particular issue, especially in political parties, and the goal of concern trolling is to cause dissent within a community.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 14:31 utc | 44

@DutchZ
Where did you get 15:1? Using the numbers publicly shown after the first month it was >20:1 and ratio will be growing fast since trained soldiers are gone and elenski is sending men taken from the gas station waiting lines now. Also you should consider surrendered since not everyone dies for Slava Cocaini.
I doubt the total Allied troops is above 100k. So in the end the destruction they've inflicted on a large army, with the largest arsenal of gifted javelins in whole Europe (bigger than nato), using civilians as shields and the support of all satellites will be hard to process for the West. That's why everything is censored in the Western media.

The mistake Russia makes is the very small or delayed economical sanctions. Yes, gas will be $3000 in winter but that's months away. Hunger is months away. Finland was basically in nato for years and now prepares to deploy nato troops to attack Russia "tomorrow" but Russia gives them everything they need, even retreated troops many from the border. Very weak behaviour, you get nuked that way

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 14:38 utc | 45

'The Russians have stated that Ukraine (i.e. "Rump Ukraine") must be neutral, no NATO, no EU, no Nazis, demilitarized.'

Yes of course you are right, but this state (or statelet) is likely to be thoroughly interpenetrated by the Western 'education' (i.e. indoctrination) system, by Western (i.e. American) capital, by Western (i.e. American) propaganda (the Western so-called 'media') and so on. Presumably as well the CIA/MI5 etc. will operate there with impunity.

Removing all the Nazis from positions of power and the removal of Nazi ideology from Ukrainian nationalism will also be very difficult (or impossible).

A big high wall, with lots of people on the Russian side with big guns, separating the 'West' from the 'East' will be the safest way to deal with this 'country'.

Posted by: Hidari | May 15 2022 14:41 utc | 46

@Et Tu #1
@daisuke #3

Scott Ritter's original thinking was that it Russia would prevent major shipments of Western arms into the actual combat theaters of Ukraine, from their primarily Western Ukraine/Lvov entry points.

The change was due to the video of an M777 firing around Kharkov.

Note that the M777 artillery shipment from the US was 90 of them plus presumably ammunition. While 90 artillery is nothing to sneeze at, let's put this in perspective:

According to armedforces.eu - Ukraine's presumably pre-2/24/2022 armed forces possessed 3,721 artillery. Russia has been destroying this artillery - the 90 pieces in question are roughly 1 week of MoD artillery destroyed announcements.

So the entire shipment, even were it to have been successfully smuggled across Ukraine to Kharkov, would replace 1 week of Ukrainian artillery losses.

However, as I noted above, Ukraine is highly focused on appearance vs. reality. How hard would it be to smuggle a single M777 into Kharkov for the purposes of firing off a dozen shells? Not too hard.

Similarly, the above armedforces.eu site notes Ukraine had 2,105 tanks and 6,990 armored fighting vehicles. Just how easy would it be to ship 210 tanks and 699 AFVs into Lvov and move them 1000 km to Kharkiv or 1200 km to Donetsk/Donbas? And not be seen and attacked?

Scott Ritter has made hasty pronouncements in the past that were wrong including the start of the SMO, Lira, and others; I counsel waiting and seeing before taking his latest analysis to heart.

Posted by: c1ue | May 15 2022 14:43 utc | 47

c1ue | May 15 2022 14:43 utc | 47

Enough western weapons are getting to the frontlines that Ukraine has had to issue a new law making it a criminal offence to publicly complain about the quality...

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 14:51 utc | 48

@ c1ue | May 15 2022 14:43 utc | 47

However, as I noted above, Ukraine is highly focused on appearance vs. reality. How hard would it be to smuggle a single M777 into Kharkov for the purposes of firing off a dozen shells? Not too hard.
This is a very good point, and could be true given what we know about the propaganda efforts. We need much more hard facts before we "start worrying".

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 14:53 utc | 49

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 14:31 utc | 44

Unfortunately, the one or two people on this site who label others "concern trolls" work from a different definition: "Anyone who doesn't agree with what I said."

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | May 15 2022 14:57 utc | 50

@Peter AU1 #48
Those weapons are Stingers, nLaws and Dragons etc - so small they can fit in a passenger car.
Even the M777 could fit in a civilian cargo truck, given its light weight. I can totally see an M777 being smuggled in the Ukrainian equivalent of a Safeway supply 18 wheeler...

Russia has not interdicted all civilian traffic - it would cause massive hardship for the overall population in Ukraine (unlike US warmaking practice).

However, ammunition is a different story. The weight of ammo vs. the weapon is probably 50 to 1 or more.

And "light weight" doesn't apply at all to tanks and armored vehicles - hence my example of the challenges for replacement of 10% of Ukraine's pre-2/24/2022 mechanized vehicle.

Posted by: c1ue | May 15 2022 14:58 utc | 51

Peter AU1

Baud gave the precise (?) figure of 102,000 for Azov/Pravy Sektor/Aidar in Uke military. Many of those are officer corps and political officers spread through the cannon fodder formations. They are not that well trained, just vetted for loyalty. Promotion for political virtue. They are also the officers busy deserting, leaving the cannon fodder to post videos and criticize the chaos.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 15 2022 15:00 utc | 52

A tweet from a Ukraine-supporting account:

The European Song Contest will be held at Azovstal, Mariupol in 2023.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1525622615490146306

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 15:01 utc | 53

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 15 2022 13:28 utc | 23

What I notice on available videos for the Ukie trench system in Donbass, is that it is a poor one. Trenches being shallow, and too wide, prone to receive hits from mortars easily. This after 8 years of prep? I see no good underground shelters for troop relief during bombing .
The whole thing being much weaker than any trench systems in WWI.
Of course today's precision of fire is very much increased with Glonass / GPS systems + instant drone correction of misses.
IMHO strength of defense matches the accuracy of Ukie propaganda.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 15 2022 15:09 utc | 54

The Subtleties of Anti-Russia Leftist Rhetoric

While the so-called liberal and conservative corporate mainstream media – all stenographers for the intelligence agencies – pour forth the most blatant propaganda about Russia and Ukraine that is so conspicuous that it is comedic if it weren’t so dangerous, the self-depicted cognoscenti also ingest subtler messages, often from the alternative media.

http://edwardcurtin.com/the-subtleties-of-anti-russia-leftist-rhetoric/

Posted by: Browser | May 15 2022 15:09 utc | 55

"Russia's reaction to Finland's NATO membership turned out to be more restrained than expected," Finnish President Sauli Niinistö

"Marin said that Finland is well prepared for any possible Russian retaliation in response to the application. 'Finland is a nation of preparedness, as we have seen during the pandemic," she said, adding that "the decisions we're making this week will ensure that there will never again be a war in Finland.'"

This prime minister is giving me Zelensky vibes btw. Pompous and self-righteously steadfast in the belief that everything will turn out the way we want it to because we want it to turn out that way and it will turn out that way because we want it to...

The entry of Finland and Sweden is an escalation and a rejection of Russia's security proposals. I am inclined to accede to the argument that due to the lack of "shock and awe" in Ukr, the previously cowed are now wont to barking.

It seems to me that, if the Russian's were serious with their proposals in December, then they have to "demilitarise" Finland (which I believe is partly why NATO is so gung-ho in prolonging the fighting in Ukraine in an attempt to mitigate that risk in the belief that Russia cannot fight on two fronts).

Is there any credible threat that Russia can make that will force NATO to deny entry to the Finns? It now seems that short of another SMO, Russia will be seeing nukes on it's borders in the not too distant future. Although it would be reckless to admit a member whose entry raises the risk of nuclear conflict by an appreciable margin, I do not see any "realist" calculus being put forward.

Posted by: eyeswideshut | May 15 2022 15:17 utc | 56

As for "concern trolling" one needs to beware wedding themselves to one narrative, or another. I find Martynov and copy pasta RSH just a bit too optistic all too often. Truth is cold, fleeting and only occasionally glimpsed if at all, so beware micro analysis based on "number of airstrikes", or "M777 is obsolete, fragile and missing key electronics" - as if manually punching in GPS coordinates provided by a NATO UAV in real time isn't almost as good.

IMHO, the key reality which has become apparent from how this war is unfolding is that NATO/US/UK etc are balls deep into the Ukr armed forces, providing both strategic and operational intelligence, and have been preparing for this war for a LONG time, more than eight years. It is my opinion that the US pulled out of Afghanistan in preparation for the main show that is now unfolding.

This *IS* a NATO vs Russia war, at least. And the fat lady hasn't even warmed up yet... Watch for NATO eventually trying out the F35 fleet (even if IMHO it will go badly for them). ODESSA is going to be the key battle and I hope Russia gets over its sentimentality that it can be taken without Mariupol level damage.

Posted by: Simplicius | May 15 2022 15:27 utc | 57

@Greg Galloway #54
I have seen the same, but have assumed that what is shown aren't the core systems.
Open topped trenches are far less useful in this era of artillery or missile delivered micro-bomblets and thermobaric loads.
Karber noted in his presentation a new form of triage: where a soldier that is literally on fire runs up to a medic and begs to be shot to be put out of his misery.
I wouldn't be surprised either if thermobaric type weapons could kill/injure people by sucking up all of the oxygen in a wide area and causing depressurization lung damage to those that aren't actually contacted by fire.

Posted by: c1ue | May 15 2022 15:30 utc | 58

- NATO’s strategy to be adopted in June may include the mention of a direct threat allegedly coming from Russia’s activities", Bloomberg

- Manfred Weber, chairman of the EPP Group, has warned Turkey of possible isolation within NATO in case it blocks Finland’s and Sweden’s accession

- "What Russia has always been seeking to prevent has led to a situation when these two countries are highly likely to join NATO, Their accession will considerably reinforce our alliance" Baerbock said.

Told you. Russia shows a very weak behaviour in foreign policy. St Pete will go boom and Russia is afraid to hit "decision centers" in Kiev. Kiev that is shelling over the border, killing civilians for fun and planting banned anti-personnel mines everywhere they can. China will have same fate, telegram rumors say US will declare Taiwan independent this fall.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 15:30 utc | 59

One pleasant observation; Our MSM here in the U$A, has curtailed it's breathless hawking of the "Ukraine is winning" meme. What does that mean? Who knows? But, for me, its a relief from the constant drum beat of over the top propganda.

Posted by: vetinLA | May 15 2022 15:32 utc | 60

oldhippie c1ue

There is something much larger occurring I think that I cannot pick up on what it is.
The river crossing and bridgehead event reminds me of the Syrian militia's and I think some Russian mercs that crossed the Euphrates to attack ISIS in the oilfields. US in the one or two days before had handed out SDF hats to the ISIS fighters so when the militias attacked, the US blew the shit out of them in defence of its 'SDF'. Russia did not step in on that one and I suspect the Syrian forces operated against Ru advice.
Deception is perhaps the most important part of warfare - something soviet union and now current Russia is very good at. So on one side, I think Ritter is correct and this has the potential, apart from the obvious current attrition, to develop into a long drawn out war.

I am looking at this not as in Russia should be doing this or that but rather why. What is the main game?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 15:34 utc | 61

Peter AU1 & rk, thks both for yr comments. Both of you indicate the SMO manpower, although best estimates. Looks like pretty close according to yr sources. Acoording to: https://www.forces.net/news/russia-and-us-military-firepower-comparison
Russia Armed Forceshave 900k active and 2000K reserve forces.
10% would be around 90k in the SMO. 12% would be 96K. By the way c1ue has also an interresting site
for material figures.

Posted by: DutchZ | May 15 2022 15:34 utc | 62

At this point we are a long way from exhaustion in the leadership of the Ukraine. This could easily boil for 20 years unless the Ukraine leadership gives up. It appears that the Empire has created a situation where that will not happen anytime soon.

If it is true that the NATO trained elements are that feared they could keep the government in check for many, many years. Now I realize why Putin's main goal is to destroy them. This will not end short of that accomplishment.

What will be left is an every shrinking Ukraine and a slow moving wave of Russian forces slowly pushing. At the rate they are moving NATO may get their 20 years war. Even if a sliver of the country is left NATO will pour weapons into it if the Ukraine leadership desires.

Rest assured NATO will never give up short of a strong US president saying enough is enough. Nothing like that is on the event horizon.

Posted by: circumspect | May 15 2022 15:36 utc | 63

Posted by: vetinLA | May 15 2022 15:32 utc | 60
Our MSM here in the U$A, has curtailed it's breathless hawking of the "Ukraine is winning" meme. What does that mean?

I guess it means that since the $40 billion bill has (almost) been secured, the loyal system pigs will get what they were promised. So it's time to move on to the next scam.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 15:39 utc | 64

So now Chomsky views the media, such as The New York Times and its ilk, that he has correctly castigated for propagandizing for the U.S. in Iraq and East Timor, to use two examples, is doing “a highly creditable job in reporting Russian crimes in Ukraine,” as if suddenly they were no longer spokespeople for the CIA and U.S. disinformation. And he says this when we are in the midst of the greatest propaganda blitz since WW I, with its censorship, Disinformation Governance Board, de-platforming of dissidents, etc., that border on a parody of Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four.

-- Edward Curtin, "The Subtleties of Anti-Russia Leftist Rhetoric"

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 15:44 utc | 65

Is there any credible threat that Russia can make that will force NATO to deny entry to the Finns?

Turkey doesn't seem too thrilled about the idea of a NATO Finland.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 15 2022 15:46 utc | 66

https://justice4poland.com/2015/04/11/ukraina-to-nowa-chazaria-new-khazaria/

Light Sunday reading…..

Posted by: FredF | May 15 2022 15:46 utc | 67

@circumspect | May 15 2022 15:36 utc | 63

This could easily boil for 20 years unless the Ukraine leadership gives up.
What are you smoking? Ukraine is losing ~500 soldiers per day. A ridiculous calculation is 500*365=182500 per year or 3.6 million soldiers over 20 years.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 15:48 utc | 68

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 15:44 utc | 65

Chomsky is long-past his sell-by date.

The man did excellent work back in the Cold War era, exposing the China Lobby and supporting the anti-war movement back in the Vietnam/Cold War days.

He's nearly 100 years old, now. Let him rest. He is old, weak, and controlled by women who don't have nearly the esteem for his reputation that the rest of us wish for him.

Let him rest. He's old. He's done his work. He deserves our respect, if not our ears.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 15 2022 15:49 utc | 69

They don't have enough people to end this year, 20 years is impossible.

But why are Kiev and Lviv safe while Donbass and Russian villages near border are often shelled in the joy of Nato, UN, Angelina Jolie and Bono is something I can't process.
There are photos of a captured ammo depot with shells sent by Netherlands and painted with the inscription - "revenge for MH17".

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 15:56 utc | 70

@ The Subtleties of Anti-Russia Leftist Rhetoric

The article addresses what Chomsky is doing and saying today about this war. You seem to suggest I should despise Chomsky solely because of his age -- I should ignore him like an irrelevant old person, one foot in the grave already, for crying out loud!

Categorical dismissal of old folks is bigotry I will not apply to Chomsky, sorry. He remains responsible for what he chooses to publish, if he lives to be 150.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 15:59 utc | 71

Norwegian @ 68
I know it is bad for them but they will not stop and NATO will not stop. Nothing stops short of massive change in the Ukraine/NATO leadership and that is not going to happen.

Russia is in no hurry. They are not dashing into Western Ukraine. Even if they stop pushing the war continues on slow boil just like it did from 2015 to present. Slow boil like what has gone on around Israel and Syria for many decades, actually a couple of generations in the modern era. We may well see that generational conflict here.

How does one erase a millennium of shared history? Very slowly.

Simplicius 57
It is my opinion that the US pulled out of Afghanistan in preparation for the main show that is now unfolding.

That is a thought. And they bullshitted us with the "pivot to Asia". Off to the garden.

Posted by: circumspect | May 15 2022 16:00 utc | 72

@rk | May 15 2022 15:56 utc | 70

There are photos of a captured ammo depot with shells sent by Netherlands and painted with the inscription - "revenge for MH17".
Yes, it was sent to those who shot MH17 down, so the logic must be that it malfunctions and kills those who fire the shells?

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 16:01 utc | 73

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 15 2022 15:46 utc | 66

My read on that situation is that Erdogan is holding out for some concessions that will help him i.e currency and inflation issues etc. in exchange for Turkish compliance. I fully expect the US to bribe, cajole, threaten to get their way in short order.

Posted by: eyeswideshut | May 15 2022 16:05 utc | 74

@Norwegian probably :))))

@eyeswideshut - Erdo actually said what he wants. Turkey is banned from military exports from Finland and Sweden and he said he doesn't like it and both countries support the PKK and he doesn't like that.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 16:13 utc | 75

I remember this from 2014, the "Norwegian TV crew" was from TV2

https://t.me/rtnews/24524

Azov Batalion Throwback: NAZI Helmets Broadcast On German TV

Remember when Germany’s public broadcaster ZDF displayed footage of Azov Battalion soldiers wearing helmets clearly marked with the swastika and SS double runes? The MSM won’t want you to.

The video was captured by a Norwegian TV crew in 2014... who had asked a battalion spox minutes earlier if it had fascist tendencies - “absolutely not”, they were told.

Just innocent nationalists hiding in fascist clothing, then.


Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 16:16 utc | 76

What the people is renaming now Nazivision 2022 had a lot of nazi salutes full on display...apart from your usual Heil Hitler!...

https://twitter.com/andrei_kononov/status/1525846098522345473?cxt=HHwWgsC4xae88qwqAAAA

BTW, the mass shooter in a US super market was an Azovite, as we some guessed that these shock troops once liberated fro mAzovstal will be your next Galdio to terrorize populations in case they do not vote rightly.

Notice that the mass shooting came just after Rand Paul blocked the new package of aid for Ukraine...

Russia is making us a favor by erasing those thugs there our leites need to keep us shut up...

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:19 utc | 77

look at this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SevEcH0AXIc

Posted by: newcomer | May 15 2022 16:20 utc | 78

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | May 15 2022 14:57 utc | 50

I also find the same accusations of concern trolling unwarranted. Nothing is gained by tossing them around, IMHO.

Posted by: Bloke from block 8 | May 15 2022 16:23 utc | 79

PeterAU1 @ 61

Since you ask me directly I will reply. That does not mean I have a good answer. I am perplexed by same things you are.

One thing that has happened is Russia now has a significant number of POWs. Russia is getting to know them. There are military formations with no officers remaining posting online, showing up at intel Slava and bellum acta, and other sites visited. Even after these soldiers decide their command has deserted them and their war is over they are still Russophobic.. They are not about to surrender to Russia, which would be the safest thing they could do. By speaking publicly they become targets for SBU, which has said they are all being prosecuted and imprisoned. As if SBU still had those resources. SBU will lash out and kill them if the opportunity presents.

There are still babushka grandmothers in Ukraine with their heads screwed on straight. The young ones have lived in a slough of poisonous propaganda for thirty years. Russia has a big job bringing that population to reality. Showing who is boss is only a first step, and won’t work in the long run unless all is done very very well. Flashing big guns can just as well result in a hundred years of resentment. Treating the prisoners well is going to have huge dividends but won’t pay off quick. Russia has to play a long term game. You and I can’t plan that game for them. We only hope they are doing right things and we are nearly blind.

Can’t locate who said it above, there was a remark about Ukrainian leadership, and about degrading it. That work has been done in advance. Zelensky is a 155cm gay actor with a severe cocaine problem. Everyone else is a screenwriter, producer, or publicist. A gang of useful idiots in process of becoming useless idiots.

This may all be slow, it goes in one direction only. If US/NATO had strong cards to play they would be showing them.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 15 2022 16:23 utc | 80

Laura Pausini changed her expression once known Ukraine had won...She could not avoid having a heart shock, as every kindhearted well meaning European....

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:23 utc | 81

A meem that says it all about yesterday´s Nazivision 2022...

https://twitter.com/andrei_kononov/status/1525833228799692801?cxt=HHwWgsC-0ZjP7KwqAAAA

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:24 utc | 82

From Sputnik:
The inhabitants of Popasna were not released from the basements by mercenaries speaking Polish. Foreigners did not let the population out even for water. APU tanks were placed next to residential buildings.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 16:25 utc | 83

There is a current contest in Twitter over what would be the right renaming of Atlantic Council managed Nazivision from now on...

Azovission ( with the two as SS emblem..) and EEUUvision seems to go ahead in the score...

https://twitter.com/andrei_kononov?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:30 utc | 84

So this Eurovision thing is coming to Russia next year. Well, that's a nice gesture.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 16:32 utc | 85

After the singer from Ukraine made a call to help the Nazi Azov battalion from the stage after finishing the performance, he left making a salute that in view of his support for Azov raises doubts that he was greeting the people of #Eurovision...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525739516677476355

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:33 utc | 86

After the singer from Ukraine made a call to help the Nazi Azov battalion from the stage after finishing the performance, he left making a salute that in view of his support for Azov raises doubts that he was greeting the people of #Eurovision


https://twitter.com/i/status/1525739516677476355

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:38 utc | 87

Posted by: c1ue | May 15 2022 15:30 utc | 58

I wouldn't be surprised either if thermobaric type weapons could kill/injure people by sucking up all of the oxygen in a wide area and causing depressurization lung damage to those that aren't actually contacted by fire.

Exactly how the weapon is intended to work.

Posted by: Sushi | May 15 2022 16:39 utc | 88

Has anyone else heard reports that u.s. admiral eric olson was just taken into custody in azovstal?

Posted by: NJH | May 15 2022 16:39 utc | 89

rk & Norwegian, here in the Netherlands we have courtprocess going on for years now to condemn the
the Russians who shot the MH17. A 192 dutch people were killed. Justice must be done. The reason why the process is done in the Netherlands. Yes the general consensus is; the Russians did it. It is supported by the Gouvernment, most people in the parliament and MSM.
To make a long story short: there is a strong anti-russian feeling here. Fully amplified by most
MSM.

Posted by: DutchZ | May 15 2022 16:42 utc | 90

From Simplicius 57
"It is my opinion that the US pulled out of Afghanistan in preparation for the main show that is now unfolding."

This is entirely logical and may be correct, in that pulling out of Afghanistan sort of cleared the decks, militarily, for the US to do something elsewhere, but I don't think this was a well thought out plan, a conspiracy at the highest levels - as in, lets crush Russian by drawing them into Ukraine against Nato to clear the European decks before we crush China. I mean, there may be people who think this way, at the highest levels, but it is equally likely this whole thing sort of stumbled into where we are, as in, Biden got out of Afghanistan because back then he had some balls and felt he had to to prosecute his social and covid agenda; and meanwhile there were these anti Russian zealots trying to get Ukraine into NATO and, yes, eventually topple Putin; and meanwhile there were even others foaming to go after China.....my sense here is that if it is a choice between a grand conspiracy or a colossal series of f**k ups the f**k ups win 99 percent of the time.

I do think Russia had anticipated a much faster Ukrainian collapse, or settlement point. Now it seems to be a race between exhausting Russia with a flood of new arms and the west turning against the whole war because of the bite of the sanctions and food riots. This is very dangerous, because this leads to both sides thinking seriously about some kind of first strike to stop all this...

Let's see what and how Russia responds to Finland if they are brought into NATO...

Posted by: Boomheist | May 15 2022 16:46 utc | 91

@NJH | May 15 2022 16:39 utc | 89

Rumors only so far, no confirmations I am aware of

Here are the rumors
https://twitter.com/Ukraine66251776/status/1525816514464690176

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 16:47 utc | 92

The reality on Finland and Sweden. Both countries are small and pose no military threat to Russia any more than the Baltic states that are already members. And Sweden has been a de facto member all along anyway. It is a shame that Finland will spoil it's relationship with Russia that it has had since Soviet times but that is about all it will do. This is nothing but pr for Nato. They are consolation prizes for losing Ukiestan....and it is lost...they know it. You have to understand what a blow this is to the US Empire. Ukraine was like their Israel in eastern Europe...an unsinkable battleship promoting US hegemony and undermining Russian security forevermore. It's military capability has been systematically dismantled and no handful of antique weapons funneled there will reverse the situation. The Western policy clowns are delusional. They thought sanctions would destroy the Russian economy and Putin would be overthrown. They really believed that idiocy! But that hasn't happened, and there is no sign that it will. They thought if they could manufacture the illusion that the Kiev regime was holding it's own, they could buy time for there hoped for regime change. Total fail. They shot their wad on Snake Island. Now they must find some way to present the optics they didnt lose. It is no accident that the defense secretary calls right after that debacle...right after Victory Day.Calling for a cease fire means it isnt going the way the West wants but I know other issues were discussed...like how the US can save face when Russia gets everything they want.

Posted by: nook | May 15 2022 16:50 utc | 93

"Russia's reaction to Finland's NATO membership turned out to be more restrained than expected," Finnish President Sauli Niinistö

He thinks Finland has membership just because they beg for it :)))) You can't make this up.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 11:59 utc | 2

Finland already closes some factories because of tit-for-tat sanctions so far, and according to Russian media, protests of workers already started. So far we are talking about loss of supplies of wood, paper and electricity. Finland could prosper by taking example from their Ugro-Finnic brothers.

Germany also shot her own goal by confiscating companies affiliated to Gazprom, then Gazprom dissolved contracts with its former affiliates and German government complained about "gas being used as a weapon". That adds to the effect of Ukrainian decision to close one of the gas pipes, perhaps Ukraine is not pleased with the aid they got so far.

EU Commission suddenly got into a benevolent mode and issued almost total OK for paying in rubbles purchased in Moscow for the holders of accounts in Gazprom Bank.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 15 2022 16:56 utc | 94

While some correspondents from well known mass media, like centenary Spanish La Vanguardia ( belonging to Counts of Godó and which had correspondent in the Nazi front during WWII, but curiously, and now understandably, not in the Soviet one...), try to whitewash Azov´s blatant nazism and state that Putin is exagerating the "initial" far-right stance of the group belonging to the Ucrainian National Guard, even decribing Ukraine right now as a much more democratic country than Russia...

https://twitter.com/newneoflash/status/1525579151033348096?cxt=HHwWgMCt4fWJ-asqAAAA

At the Azov base near Mariupol: Hitler and visiting cards of Western diplomats (from Canada of a colonel)
💀The Nazi group "Azov" is a regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine...in whose name the Ukrainian representatives at #Nazivision2022 last night made a call for their safe release from Azovstal to a third country....

https://twitter.com/Marushky7/status/1525590814788812806?cxt=HHwWjICwweuw_qsqAAAA

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:59 utc | 95

@92 Norwegian

Much thank kind pal.

Posted by: NjH | May 15 2022 17:01 utc | 96

Regime change could well be in the air.
Posted by: Iain | May 15 2022 14:21 utc | 42

Tangential note: Turns out EU Council's TFEU mouthpiece, vdL, opened a new front in Putin's war. Her full court press to "reform" the TEU in order only to "enlarge" EU umm jurisdiction, if not "full" membership, to "strategic" NATO beachheads has provoked opposition from an unusual set of bedfellows. A strongly worded letter purportedly has been posted in advance of and circulated during the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE).
A third of EU countries oppose changing bloc’s treaties

“We do not support unconsidered and premature attempts to launch a process towards treaty change,” said the text signed by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovenia and Sweden.
[...]
It was distributed on the day that the European Parliament in Strasbourg hosted a closing ceremony for the Conference on the Future of Europe, a consultation of hundreds of EU citizens on ways the bloc could respond better to public expectations. The consultation resulted in 49 proposals containing more than 300 recommendations essentially calling for the EU to become more of federal superstate with more powers and streamlined decision-making.

I note with interest, I have as yet been able to locate a facsimile of this letter in public domain. Also, congradulations to all who ever were offended by "politicization" of The Union and the inevitable conclusion to the story. ha. ha. of The Single Market: from Articles of Confederation to "United States of Europe" in under 100 years.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 15 2022 17:01 utc | 97

Daisuke @3
Russia is in an existential fight with the US and its minions, of which Ukraine is just one, the first to be sacrificed. (Followed by Finland, it appears).
What would be gained by "taking the gloves off" and destroying a minion? Especially a minion in which live your relatives, held hostage by the Empire?
Kill your relatives to destroy the Empire which is thousands of miles away?
That makes no sense.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 15 2022 17:04 utc | 98

@DutchZ - except it was the Ukrainians under US or UK supervision who shot it down. The Buk or whatever the name was had a number inscribed on it and it was photographed close to Poland border in Feb this year when they were moving weapons, preparing for Russia. The photo circulated a lot on telegram at that time.

@Boomheist - they also left the weapons for future terrorist attacks and regime changes like the one prevented in Kazahstan. They didn't even destroy them before leaving, an $80bn gift. They are doing the same thing in Ukraine with all those manpads sent there. North Atlantic Terrorist Organization

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 17:06 utc | 99

About the Azov battalion cheered yesterday at #Eurovision: they are Nazis and know no mercy.

Here are some testimonials from people interviewed by Liu Sivaya.

1. Those from Azov used this family as human shields along with their 9-month-pregnant daughter. They had orders to shoot to kill.

https://twitter.com/liusivaya/status/1525597268824494080?cxt=HHwWgMC46cGogawqAAAA

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 17:08 utc | 100

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