Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 15, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-66

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …

The open thread for other issues is here.

Comments

@c1ue | May 15 2022 18:13 utc | 119
Great somebody talking sense. Try that outside the bar, you get lynched. The west is insane these days. In the German city of Paderborn, the police forbid speaking Russian during a demonstration. Western freedom, my ass, freedoom.

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:02 utc | 201

Ritter simply says that “unless Putin mobilizes or transfers forces in” Russia will have to move forces from the Donbass front and that will prolong the SMO.
That’s pretty much what Lavrov already has said. But of course he didn’t formulate it the same way. Instead he said that Russia needs more forces to “hold the rear”.
Not a big deal. The scope of the operation has widened and consequently more forces are needed to keep the flow moving and crack the enemy as fast as possible.
This is about time not outcome.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 22:03 utc | 202

@ Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 21:26 utc | 193 with the perspective on Scott Ritter
From my armchair view, I think Scott was visited by some folks and convinced he needs to change his “perspective” which you are observing.
I agree that NATO is walking into their own trap by sending all their ordinance to Ukraine…what is left to protect themselves except nukes?
But since Ukraine really is a proxy war for neutering the bully of empire, maybe this is the best empire can do and when Ukraine goes down, so does the Western world….call it economic collapse.
I am going to be curious if you find anything more on the US Admiral/General Olson guy who grew up in my home town of Tacoma and is just a few years younger. It is still unknown if capturing and exposing US/NATO boots on the ground will make a difference in the public consciousness anyway.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 15 2022 22:05 utc | 203

Posted by: blues | May 15 2022 20:33 utc | 172
“The Duran hosts seem to read MoA daily.”
Mercouris has repeatedly cited b as a source of information. MoA is one of the, if not the primary, sources of valid analysis left. I don’t know any other Web site which provides such cogent analysis of so many different topics. Really not sucking up to b here! 🙂 But it’s true.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:06 utc | 204

At the end of the day they added nothing to Marx’s observation that consciousness is a product of material conditions. Unearned wealth does not free one’s consciousness, it transforms that consciousness into delusion.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 15 2022 21:11 utc | 189
Thank you for an insightful take on the propaganda mechanism. Although I think working class people in western countries are completely worked over and they have no positive place in subverted western politics to channel their frustrations, hence Trump. But that frustration is not going away.

Posted by: K | May 15 2022 22:12 utc | 205

Posted by: nook | May 15 2022 21:19 utc | 191
“Finland is not.”
Ritter assessment is based on two facts:
1) Finland has a huge border with Russia.
2) Missile in Finland are a few minutes away from St.Petersnerg.
Refute that. How is that different from Ukraine? Forget the population attitude, that is irrelevant. What matters is the direct strategic threat.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:14 utc | 206

Posted by: Hidari | May 15 2022 21:25 utc | 192
Correct.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:16 utc | 207

Sort of like a socialist mini-state operating within the chainlink erected to keep the real world at a distance.
Posted by: Sushi | May 15 2022 21:06 utc | 187
Until you get injured and become a vet, then the “socialist” (really?) military state hall of mirrors collapses and the reality sets in. Not only have you been used by Empire to protect corporate property, your golf membership and benefits have all been cancelled and you can’t get off the drugs you took to cope with murdering women and children in a country you didn’t know existed before you joined.

Posted by: K | May 15 2022 22:20 utc | 208

Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:14 utc | 206
Norway is close to Russia too. Long Finnish border, granted, but amassing armies on it would be a burden for NATO too. Not that I want to belittle. As to missiles, the baltic nazi shitholes are flight seconds from Leningrad oblast and St.Petersburg.

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:22 utc | 209

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 15 2022 22:05 utc | 203
We keep hearing of important people being in the steel plant or captured. I just ignore all that until Russia or some independent source confirms it. I don’t even care if Pepe Escobar turns up and says it if he doesn’t reveal his source or at least say his source is 100% credible.
Not to mention that it won’t matter. We all know the US is running the war. How they’re doing it is mostly irrelevant. The one thing we can be sure of is that Russian intelligence knows all about it. And if they don’t care, then we don’t care.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:22 utc | 210

@178 re: US neo-nazi shooter in Buffalo
Yeah, not new unfortunately, but normalizing these people will embolden them. Nasty video (he executes already wounded people laying on the ground) can be found online.
This particular psycho, adorned with the shwarzesonne symbol, reportedly drove from near Binghamton NY (Conklin, on I-81 for anyone familiar with the place) to Buffalo. For some reason the potential victims in Bing weren’t good enough for him.
I live in this part of the state, so once again… wtf. Thanks ass#0les in State Dept for again bringing this evil to us. We do have occasional crap like this but the nazi symbology is, outside of the prison system, new to this region as far as I am aware. Previously the few local hate crimes I was aware of would feature something sort-of like a celtic cross.

Posted by: ptb | May 15 2022 22:23 utc | 211

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:22 utc | 209
“amassing armies on it would be a burden for NATO too.”
It’s not armies – it’s Aegis Ashore.
“As to missiles, the baltic nazi shitholes are flight seconds from Leningrad oblast and St.Petersburg
They don’t have missiles. Only Poland and Romania have missiles. Why do you think Russia invaded Ukraine? You think it was because Russia was afraid NATO missiles would be put there? Yes, that’s true. But it’s also likely that Russia intends to counter those Polish missile with Russian missiles in Ukraine.
As Karlof1 has pointed out repeatedly, Russia’s goal is to reverse NATO expansion and remove NATO’s missile threat. To do that, those missiles in Poland and Romania have to go. There are only two ways to do that: 1) blow them up and start a Russia-NATO war, or 2) as I think, place Russian missiles opposite them to threaten Europe to the exact same degree that NATO threatens Russia – which is exactly what Russia repeatedly stated they would do last year if their treaty proposals were ignored.
That means Russian missiles in western Ukraine. It also means Ukrainization of Finland.
Q.E.D.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:29 utc | 212

General overview of SMO is that it’s going according to the initial overall plan, while adjustments were made based on its technical development. The initial goal of liberating the Donbass Republics is partially accomplished, while the goal of securing Crimea’s fresh water resources and further securing of its border region is complete. Each day sees a further reduction in UAF’s abilities and resources, not just at the front but also in the rear. Specifically, the UAF’s ability to shift forces is greatly degraded due to fuel and transport shortages. By month’s end, the vast majority of the UAF will be rendered static–immobile. When that occurs, the situation will consist of several sieges that will be impossible for UAF to survive; we thus hope that Ukraine’s local leaders will recognize that and sue to end the needless continuation of resistance since its clear what stands for Ukraine’s national leadership isn’t Ukrainian at all with orders issued by the Outlaw US Empire. As Putin stated on May 12th:
“I would like to stress that the blame for this lies entirely with the elites of Western countries, who are ready to sacrifice the rest of the world for the sake of maintaining their global dominance.”
None of those elites have any skin in Ukraine. And after three months, local Ukrainian leaders ought to understand what that means for them and their people.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 15 2022 22:30 utc | 213

You gotta love people who accuse you of trolling and then post 20 comments in a row… Self awareness does come slowly to some.
In case ur wondering, it’s the guy perfectly described by his last name.
I figured after being repeatedly accused of it, i might show some of you what trolling actually looks like.
@ MoA sorry, first and last trip into the gutter, i tried to make it witty and amusing, to some at least i hope.
good night everyone

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 22:33 utc | 214

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:22 utc | 209
British soldiers have gone to Norway for the biennial “Cold @ss” Nato exercise for decades. I doubt Russia will like that kind of exercises outside St. Petersburg.
US/Nato is like a nagging bi..h. She’ll never stop pestering you, always looking for a weak point, always trying to back stab you, always lying. The only solution is divorce. Preferable with a restraining order.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 22:33 utc | 215

From The Saker…
Norman Finkelstein : Russia has the historical right to invade Ukraine (updated with transcript)
https://thesaker.is/norman-finkelstein-russia-has-the-historical-right-to-invade-ukraine-updated-with-transcript/
He makes the case as others have that Russia gave the West years of negotiation and was pushed into a corner. He correctly asks, as I have in other place, “What did you want Putin to do?” In other words, what were Russia’s options other than to invade? People then hem and haw, as his interviewer does here. They have no answer because there is no answer. Then they start talking about the morality, as if that matters. Finkelstein covers that, too. Read the whole thing or watch the video.

Now everything I just told you, Professor Chomsky, John Mearsheimer and others will acknowledge it. The mainstream press won’t even acknowledge that but people who call themselves just, legitimately call themselves dissidents, although Mearsheimer wouldn’t call himself a dissident, he just calls himself a realist. Nice guy, I consider him a friend, I like him. They’ll acknowledge all that. But then they say the invasion was criminal. Criminal invasion, criminal, criminal, criminal. And my question which I’ve constantly been putting in correspondence is a very simple one: if you agree that for 20 years—more than 20 years, more than two decades—, Russia has tried to engage in diplomacy; if you agree that the Russian demand to neutralize Ukraine —not occupy it, not determine its government, its form of economy, just neutralize it like Austria after World War II—, if you agree that was a legitimate demand; if you agree that the West was expanding and expanding NATO; if you agree that Ukraine de facto had become a member of NATO, weapons pouring in, engaging in military exercises in NATO; and if you agree… You know, Russia lost 30 million people during World War II because of the Nazi invasion, so there’s a legitimate concern by Russia with all of these —if you excuse my language— Nazis floating around in the Ukraine, then the simple question is: What was Russia to do?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:35 utc | 216

Strange that Ritter appears to now be voicing concerns shared by Blinken.
See the post by nook | May 15 2022 20:55 utc | 182
The reports of the Austin / Shoygu call appeared to raise the same concern. All of a sudden a range of US figures are voicing “concern” and seeking to “assist” Russia because of the inordinate difficulties faced by the RF.
See my post Sushi | May 15 2022 17:33 utc | 107 for a listing of present RF “difficulties.”
I suspect the concerted approach by members of the Empire of Chaos is due to “difficulties” they anticipate facing. I can think of several problems on the horizon:
1) Likely veto of NATO expansion by Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, possibly others.
2) Pending collapse of the Donbass front. You cannot move L777 ammo forwards if you lack fuel. You cannot move troops back if you lack fuel.
3) You cannot achieve much if an allies retreat line of march is in range of RF long range artillery and air-power. Highway of Death ring a bell? The Falaise Gap?
4) The 6,400 sanctions are insane and they act with greatest effect on the EU states and CONUS.
5) US is coming to the stark realization that there exists no ready substitute for RF NG. It will be a minimum of 3 years to arrange substitute supply. In the interim the cost of all energy is going to go through the roof and this will impact the US mare than any other state. Twenty percent of the cost of US food is the cost of FF inputs at all levels from the farm to distribution to retail.
6)Blinken, Austin, Ritter, may all be acting from an awareness of the effects of US foreign policy on the November mid-terms. They cleaned out the inventory of Javelins and Stingers, are provoking major war with an opponent who has access to what once was the US inventory, the cost of living of the insane sanction regime will hit the pocketbook of US voters before the mid-terms.
7)The likely turmoil in the EU states will see the rise of the “abolish NATO idiocy” movement.
I think there is more in this vein including the revelations associated with the captured remnants of the NATO HQ in the Azovstal rubble.

Posted by: Sushi | May 15 2022 22:36 utc | 217

Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:29 utc | 212
To have Aegis in Finland it needs to have Finland in NATO, and Finland approving dislocation.
Why aren’t the missiles in the baltic shitholes already? Just because the original excuse was that they were against Iran and my dog not Russia. The excuse is not needed anymore. So the Aegis could be around Riga faster than around Helsinki.

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:37 utc | 218

@Posted by: Sushi | May 15 2022 17:58 utc | 116
Once you use PPP for the size of GDP, China is 24.28 US$trillion vs the US at 20.95 US$trillion, in 2020. The distance will be bigger in 2022 given the different growth rates during the pandemic. We may also want to correct for the utter wastefulness of the US (20%+ on a “healthcare” system and a massive financial/rentier sector), which would make China significantly larger than the US. In PPP terms Russia is also the same size of a Germany which is in the stage of committing economic suicide.
At exchange rates the US is spending US$778 billion (3.5% GDP) and China US$250 billion. Fixed for PPP, the Chinese number is US$400 billion (2% of GDP). Given the utter wastefulness and profiteering in US procurement plus the cost of all those bases and the useless (against a peer competitor) aircraft carrier fleets and they are probably close to par for actual usable output. While China has the advantage of spending a much smaller % of GDP on defence, with the amount growing faster as it tends to match relative GDP growth.
In any conflict China will be defending its own territory and the close environs, while the US will be across an ocean. With the latest election in the Philippines there certainly won’t be any chance of using any ASEAN nation as a staging post, so only Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (which would be wiped out in days). That’s why a US spokesman recently stated that it does not recognize Taiwanese sovereignty. The longer the US waits to provocate, the worse its defeat will be and the stronger China will be.
So the only option, especially after the failure of the China tariffs and the attempt to kill off Huawei, is to go after Russia through the Ukraine and try to regime change Russia to open up China’s northern borders and take away the highly synergistic relationship between the two. With China, and the rest of the 7/8ths of humanity outside the West not going along with Russia sanctions this has already failed. The result will be a Russian Ukraine, plus a deeply economically and socially damaged Europe on its knees to the US. Not a winning hand.
Next option? Cause as much chaos as possible to slow down the inevitable, even though that has failed in Kazakhstan, Belarus, the Caucasus, Thailand (they are voting on a bill to get control of all the Western NGOs attempting to destabilize the government), the Philippines (with the new President and the VP being the daughter of Duterte), and smouldering along in Myanmar. Next perhaps the Polish “intervention” in Ukraine. All very desperate while Russia refuses to collapse and is instead winning the war.
US defence spending is way below early years as a percentage of GDP. 7% in 1970 (Vietnam); 6% in 1985 (Reagan); 4.5% in 2011 (Obama) so it is possible for the US to significantly ramp up military spending, even as a form of stimulus to rescue the economy – although the question of dollar stability may be raised. The ongoing destruction of Europe does seem to have helped the US$ by making the Euro a “dirtier shirt” even though longer-term thats pretty terrible for Western global dominance. Especially with Japan in long-term demographic decline.
A logical position would be for the US elites to accept their new position in a multi-polar world and manage their decline as well as possible, but that would result in huge losses in their foreign portfolios as they lose their dominance, and a significant retrenchment at home that may open up civil unrest given the resulting reduction in real wages for the masses and a questioning of the whole American hegemonic culture. So better to double-down and hang on for as long as possible. Also, a little question of prestige and psychological hurt for all those Western elites having to give up their 5 centuries of “leading” the world and being the “example” for others to follow.
The old is dying and the new cannot yet be born, to quote Gramsci, always the worst of time for those living in the old and the most dangerous for us all. The Western leaders all seem to have been captured by the elites/WEF with their neoliberal woke love of fascists, right down to the Finnish PM with her two mums and the Canadian next PM with her Nazi grandfather. It does not bode well for anyone taking the logical position.

Posted by: Roger | May 15 2022 22:37 utc | 219

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 22:33 utc | 214
“You gotta love people who accuse you of trolling and then post 20 comments in a row… Self awareness does come slowly to some.”
Are you a complete moron? In what part of any of my comments does it consist of “concern trolling”? Whereas you can hardly post one without concern trolling.
“In case ur wondering, it’s the guy perfectly described by his last name.”
And here we go with the insults. Which is why you’re a moron. That isn’t an insult. It’s a fact.
“good night everyone”
Don’t let the door hit you in the backside as you retreat. Then watch him turn up tomorrow with the same shit – which is the definition of a troll.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:39 utc | 220

@donten | May 15 2022 18:52 utc | 133
thanks for drawing attention to Sara Wagenknecht’s speech. She has a better grip on reality than Scholz and Baerbock.

Posted by: cirsium | May 15 2022 22:40 utc | 221

More gobshites on here tonight than usual. Wonder if it’s raining out?

Posted by: Mongo | May 15 2022 22:41 utc | 222

89, 92, 124
Still no confirmation.
Roger Cloutier has still not turned up playing golf.
Olson is retired four star, former Commander Special Ops. Being caught at Avozstal sounds like something an old military fool would do.
Neither a three star (Cloutier) nor a four star gets to do anything quietly and privately. If there are no other reports of their activities then the tweet is true.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 15 2022 22:42 utc | 223

>>So Scott Ritter, who I have a lot of respect for and therefore concern over this, has overnight changed his view on the Ukraine war to unwinable << ??? Scott Ritter did not say it can't be won. Ritter's point is Russia didn't act decisive enough in manpower. And because of this and the Time that has gone by, it allowed western powers to prop up and expand Ukraine's military capability. As he states, Ukraine is losing men very quickly but they are, so far, able to maintain sufficiently against Russia not increasing their 180k men. He then stated, in effect, Russia should be mobilizing from its huge manpower resource and be decisive as well as, inexplicably, allowing some western supplies to get to the front line. That is his opinion. It may be a good one or it may not. But it was not "unwinable".

Posted by: Corsair66 | May 15 2022 22:47 utc | 224

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:37 utc | 218
“To have Aegis in Finland it needs to have Finland in NATO, and Finland approving dislocation.”
Pardon me? We are talking hyptheticals here. Obviously if some country in NATO denies Finland membership then the whole discussion is moot. There is little doubt that if no NATO nation denies Finland, then Finland will be in NATO. So what’s your point?
“Why aren’t the missiles in the baltic shitholes already? Just because the original excuse was that they were against Iran and my dog not Russia. The excuse is not needed anymore. So the Aegis could be around Riga faster than around Helsinki.”
And that point means what? You’re completely missing my point: Any and all NATO missiles on Russia’s border are going to be countered. Period. End of story.
I’m not saying that Ritter is necessarily right that Russia will invade Finland like Ukraine. There are additional reasons why Ukraine is being destroyed besides putting missiles in it. Finland is not the same level of threat as Ukraine, so maybe Finland avoids being invaded, depending on whether NATO puts troops there in addition to Aegis Ashore. Maybe Russia will just put missiles next to Finland – as they have already said they probably will. But the point is that Russia will not allow Finland to have NATO troops and missiles one way or the other. So if NATO puts troops and Aegis Ashore or other strategic weapons in Finland, Russia will react. If Russia deems that reaction to require an invasion, that’s what will happen.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:49 utc | 225

Sarmat | May 15 2022 22:33 utc | 215
Are you telling they have not gone to Lithuania, the most rabid baltic Nazi and SS veteran revering shithole statelet?

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 22:50 utc | 226

Latvia (one of tri-baltic statelets) seems to de facto denounce the treaty about Russian army withdrawal from Latvians SSR.
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1107368
De facto creating casus belli patterned on 2018 BBC movie.
It can be just Western rusophobia going amok. But it also can be a desperate attempt to distract Russian Army from Ukraine by any means.

Posted by: Arioch | May 15 2022 22:51 utc | 227

I used to read Turcopolier often, but Lang has completely lost it so no more.
His latest, from particle quotes:
>“Russia has likely lost one-third of its ground combat forces in Ukraine and the forces who remain are depleted and have been unable to make any territorial progress in recent weeks, British intelligence officials said early Sunday.
>Russia “has now likely suffered losses of one-third of the ground combat force it committed in February,” the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense said in an update.
>The UK government also said these losses will “almost certainly” be worsened as tactical and support equipment continues to run out.. . .etc.
So Colonel Pat Lang is now a mouthpiece for the military ‘experts’ in London who, lacking a military, have a lot of time on their hands and nothing else to do.
Then a a Lang wrap-up:
“Comment: OK. ISW are just neocon freaks? How about UK MOD? pl”

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 15 2022 22:53 utc | 228

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 11:55 utc | 1
I recently posted a couple of articles on apparent Russian losses on Snake Island and that now famed river crossing in Donbass, both of which subsequently turned out to be either inconclusive or inaccurate.

Russian losses on Snake Island? To write that place you on the side of the ukronazi propaganda. Inconclusive? Inaccurate? Nope. Complete lie. And complete and heavy defeat of the ukronazis.
River crossing? Another lie from the ukronazis. There are dozens of such fake information from the ukronazis. Maskerading their own destroyed vehicles with the Z symbol.
Despite posting in good faith, i was accused of ‘concern trolling’, which is apparently the new favourite term du jour for anyone sharing information about Russian losses on very one-sided pro Russian sites, if nothing else, just as an attempt to balance the reporting.
When you rely the ukronazi propaganda there is no “good faith” anymore. One recent battle: casualties: ukronazis = 300; Russians = 15. That is 20 to 1.
Where are the heavy losses of the Russian army?
The DNR is losing less than 20 servicemen a week.
Where are the heavy losses?
The core of the ukrainian army is facing Donbass. It is doomed. Russia is deploying only a small part of its army and it is making progress everyday.
The advance is slow? And? Obviously to minimize the losses. Nothing wrong. The ukronazis are losing. The rest is bullshit. The rest is ukronazi propaganda.
And yes, I name you a troll, for anyone knows that the Russian army has everyday casualties, but to evaluate them is bullshit. Your share nothing but the ukronazi propaganda.
With Kiev still not a target, it means that Russia is completely OK.

Posted by: Olivier | May 15 2022 22:54 utc | 229

Et Tu #1
Please ignore the detractors and ‘concern troll’ cancellers.
Your posts are appreciated.
The river crossing episode was intriguing and worth exploring.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 15 2022 22:57 utc | 230

Sushi & Roger–
I remind you and all barflies that the Outlaw US Empire’s GDP is grossly overstated and is shrinking. From $5-7 Trillion are non-productive financial transactions that are added to GDP when they don’t belong there at all. Then there’re other negatives counted as positives. IMO, the $25 Trillion GDP number is a monstrosity given its falsity. $15-18 Trillion is the most I’d call it. Based on the lack of GDP growth depicted in this graph, there’s no validity in the $25 Trillion figure. The reality as usual is much worse than what’s being admitted.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 15 2022 22:58 utc | 231

@Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 22:35 utc | 216
I was at the leaving do of one of my favourite professors from my institution and had the experience of having a conversation with a fully conditioned newish member of the Western IR elite, whose education was UBC (Vancouver Canada), McGill (Montreal, Canada) and Cornell (Ithaca US) and a post doc at Princeton (New Jersey US). I tried having a conversation with him using some of the facts in your post, but it was like talking to a wall. He had been fully indoctrinated into the NATO GOOD, US GOOD, Russia BAD, China BAD school of IR, full of “liberal internationalist” talking points, I am sure that he will have a very successful academic/governmental career.
It is useful for me to have such conversations now and again, to remind myself of the utter ideological programming that passes for mainstream politics, education and international relations education in North America. It helps me understand the utter level of blindness to reality that otherwise relatively intelligent people can possess. My professor came from a slightly different time, while nowhere near perfect there was at least some questioning of the dominant beliefs, a questioning that has (literally) left the building in the past couple of decades.
Then, as I had predicted to my girlfriend a somewhat catchy song from Ukraine won the Eurovision song contest due to a massive amount of online “votes” that overwhelmed the position of the national judges. Of course Russia and Belarus were banned for their “aggression”, while I do seem to remember that nobody had a problem with Occupied Palestine being a contestant one year. If we are to judge by the scale and scope of the propaganda the Western elites are in up to their necks in their anti-Russia position, which will be very difficult to walk back as Russia becomes so obviously the winner in the conflict, and the European economy goes into serious hurt while Russia is just fine.

Posted by: Roger | May 15 2022 23:00 utc | 232

@E Tu
I listened to Scott Ritter and he said the Russians ⁶will achieve the goals of the Special Military Operation but queried what they would do to keep (what’s left of) Ukraine confined. Just a few things;
1. According to Andrei Matyarnov if the Russians were at war it would be totally different. The UKNs wouldn’t know what hit them.
2. So Scott If Russia successfully achieves it’s SMO goals as you say they would, then UKN will be DEMILITATISED AND DENATZIFIED. Who will do the fighting? NATO?
3.And if they do still have a military how will they fuel their military equipment?
4.Will they have transport links left?
5. Ships? 1 ship.
6. It’s a war, shit happens, people get killed. The end result tho Russia succeeded in crossing and claiming the ‘other’ side of the river.
7. Not sure what happened to Ritter. Perhaps the 3 letter men have some more interesting info about him? Because that anlysis while on the face it makes some sense if you don’t know anything about the SMO war his ability to delve deeper into the nuances isn’t quite there.

Posted by: Win | May 15 2022 23:04 utc | 233

@karlof1 | May 15 2022 22:58 utc | 231
Thomas Roeper has some reflections on US GDP here (machine translate from teutonic 😉 ) https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2022/bip-die-usa-als-scheinriese-und-eine-frage-an-die-schwarmintelligenz/
The idea of the US and the west as “Scheinriese”, “illusory giant” stems from the Childrens’ novel “Jim Knopf und der Lokomotivfuehrer” by the German author Michael Ende. It depicts a frightening giant which shrinks the closer you approach and be able to observe it, in the end to a deplorable dwarf. The idea to see the west that way is first raised in Dagmar Henn’s https://test.rtde.tech/meinung/138127-der-westliche-scheinriese-und-die-sanktionen/

Posted by: aquadraht | May 15 2022 23:11 utc | 234

Posted by: Corsair66 | May 15 2022 22:47 utc | 224
“That is his opinion. It may be a good one or it may not. But it was not “unwinable”.”
Uh, sorry, but he actually did use the word “unwinnable” during the discussion IIRC or something to that effect.
His assessment remains wrong. Since we don’t known Russia’s strategic goals or operational plan, we can not say with any evidence whether the level of manpower committed so far is adequate or not. That’s simply logic.
Neither can we derive from the current speed of events that said manpower is insufficient without knowing the actual losses on the Russian side. What we can presume is that if Russia has not made extensive efforts to ramp up its forces then it must believe they are adequate for the purpose. This is what Lavrov said in that interview I quoted: he said the forces were enough to win but perhaps not enough to win quickly. But that’s his assessment. He’s not on the General Staff and presumably has no more detailed knowledge of the operational plan than anyone else outside the General Staff.
Another point is that the US has not “propped up and expanded” the Ukraine military. All the US and NATO has done is dump a bunch of tactical level weapons on the ground. As I repeatedly state here, that is nothing which can affect the operational and strategic outcome.
Worse, his notion that Ukraine can raise a “million man reconstituted effective military”, as he put it, is simply nonsense – and he should know better. He dismissed all those possibilities ever since the war began. And now he’s just changed his assessment 180 degrees? WTF?
I posted a link to the video over at Martyanov’s site. I’m sure he will weigh in and dismiss Ritter’s arguments. Wouldn’t be surprised if he does a whole video on it at some point. Again, people need to look at his video from this past Monday, which I link to here:
Surprise, Not!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgIgXjSnCJM
Martyanov just responded to my post on his site:
smoothieX12 . Mod Richard Steven Hack • 2 hours ago
1. Scott grossly overestimates “re-armament” on the US side;
2. He grossly underestimates the events on the ground in Ukraine, especially when nobody has full picture.
Commenter Larchmonter also says the same thing I say:
Larchmonter445 horse • 2 hours ago
When they move westward, there will be no Ukie military. Most of the west is barren, agricultural areas.
They will precede movement with artillery and missile strikes, Aerospace strikes and remnants of teroborona, and Ukies. If there is some form of insurgency supplied by US and NATO, it will be dealt with by PMCs. It will likely no longer be a pure combined arms operation. If foreign troops enter, then Russia will decimate them with standoff missiles.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 23:11 utc | 235

I believe that forever wars also bring us a domestic component. . .If somebody upsets you, or talks mean, or you just need a pick-me-up, kill some people. It’s okay. It’s what we do over there, and over here.
>2 dead, 3 hurt in shooting at Houston flea market
>1 Dead, 3 Hurt After Shots Fired Outside Arkansas Graduation.
>US rocked by three separate mass shootings over Easter
>10 killed, 3 wounded in racist shooting at Buffalo supermarket
>Milwaukee mass shooting leaves 17 injured near NBA playoff
>It’s 19 weeks into the year and America has already seen 198 mass shootings
>Mass shooting wave rattles communities large and small in US

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 15 2022 23:13 utc | 236

Posted by: Olivier | May 15 2022 22:54 utc | 229
Correct.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 23:13 utc | 237

Posted by: Roger | May 15 2022 23:00 utc | 232
Correct.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 23:18 utc | 238

Win | May 15 2022 23:04 utc | 233 “The end result tho Russia succeeded in crossing and claiming the ‘other’ side of the river.”
During the time of the river crossing, there were constant reports in social media at the nearest town. That has now disappeared. The attempted crossing and bridgehead was a failure.
It was in LPR area of operations so if fighting was still occurring south of the crossing it would be appearing in social media and other reports.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 23:23 utc | 239

Origins of Eurovision Contest and how the Pentagon and NATO organized the Ukrainian victory in the already desprestigiated “contest”…
https://www.voltairenet.org/article216862.html

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 23:32 utc | 240

About the river crossing whatever to take away focus from Putin’s Victory Day speech
Looks like it worked.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 15 2022 23:33 utc | 241

This is the level of BS people are getting from the UK…and regurgitated from the US media. I supposed this will start a new round of concern trolling here.
Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS ‘taped to the dashboards,’ UK defense minister says
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-su34-jets-basic-gps-receivers-taped-to-dashboards-uk-2022-5

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 23:35 utc | 242

From karlof1’s earlier coment
Puti – “What’s happening today? Today, the system of the unipolar world that developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union is being destroyed, that’s what is most important. The main thing is not even the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and Ukraine, because this is not the main thing. Much is said that the United States is ‘ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.’ And they say, and we say, in fact, this is how it is. That is the quintessence of the events taking place.”
This map shows the Karkiv sector – blue dots representing townships retake by Ukraine forces
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.009978841271455%2C36.53679878571971&z=9
There was a bit about an offensive force being put together for this operation on telegram ect. Supposedly the better fighters or groups of fighter were put together. I guess it would mostly consist of nationalists- two I have see mention are Kraken and Tornado or elements of that previous group. Tornado were the worst of the worst when it came to nazi groups to the extent that even in Ukraine they were jailed. Prime material for denazification but that does not seem to be occurring.
According to Rodenko, the Bio lab from which Russia obtained documents and other evidence was located at Mariupol. Russia had a lot of intel and I think was a prime target to secure within the first day or so of the operation.That was posted I think about a week ago in his telegram channel https://t.me/s/RtrDonetsk
My thoughts – Russia has secured roughly the administrative borders of Kherson and said they are there to stay. Kherson is ow a part of the Russia federation and secures Crimea’s water supply.
Russia is holding enough of Zaporiz

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 23:52 utc | 243

Karkiv is in the news a lot, only because the new Russian GLOCs (ground lines of Communication, basically roads) run nearby which were intended to provide the Russian Army a “back door” to the Ukie defences oriented towards the south. So it may happen the Russia will have to turn to Plan B, that is attacking and defeating the entrenched Ukie defending forces head-on. So it goes. Just do it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 0:03 utc | 244

Sushi | May 15 2022 17:58 utc | 116
Thank you, Sushi, for such an insightful post. Great takeaways:

“…the US views its decline as reason to seek the destabilization / undermining of any near peer competitor. It seeks to act now as it may be too weak to act later.
“I would argue that the US is already weaker than its near peer competitors. Its 800 military bases are a liability not a strength as recognized by Frederick the Great: “He who defends everything, defends nothing.”
“The real issue is the US can no longer compete on an equal footing and therefore resorts to inferior and immoral tactics – “We lie, we cheat, we steal, [we murder,] and we maintain training programs in how to do this” Secretary of State Pompeo.”
“The US is engaged not in co-operative benefit but straightforward predation. It can only achieve this outcome due to hegemony in the uni-polar world of today. The smaller nations of the world experience and observe this fact. Ultimately the Lilliputians will tie down Gulliver.”

Posted by: Doug Hillman | May 16 2022 0:05 utc | 245

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 15 2022 22:57 utc | 230
Well said. Thank you.
Somewhat ironic to encounter “cancel culture” on b’s website.
I seem to remeber b declarating that only he had the perogative to cancel the participation of any barfly.
Cheers!
PS
And Et Tu when you return keep pissing them off with your views and opinion. If they really believed you to be a troll they would not engage you at all.

Posted by: Sushi | May 16 2022 0:15 utc | 246

I hit the post button by mistake so will cotinue with what I think may be occurring
Russia is holding enough of Zaporizhzhiato ensure a land corridor between Russia and Crimea. Perhaps at some point Russia may take that region to its admin borders including the capital but does not seem to be the case at the moment.
The two republics are doing the heavy lifting when it comes to to regaining control of their administrative borders.They have been involved in heavy fighting, trying through the fortified frontline since the first day of the SMO. Chechen’s specialized in urban fighting are helping there.
Apart from securing it’s own interests in Kherson, the Russian strategy appears to center on creating the circumstances in which the republics can prevail.
That may also be the longer term strategy behind denazification and demilitarization. Plenty
of videos now of military units angry at their leadership. Also the mothers.
Any political parties opposed to Zelesky/US war with Russia are banned. I think in the not too distant future opposition groups will begin to form – military and political – and when they do, Russia may well create the circumstances for them to prevail.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2022 0:15 utc | 247

From my armchair view, I think Scott was visited by some folks and convinced he needs to change his “perspective” which you are observing.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 15 2022 22:05 utc | 203
That was my initial reaction as well. Just a speculative gut feeling. He appeared stressed, rather than confident in delivering that new perspective. That could be because he is frustrated or he’s self-conscious of his 180…or something completely different. Who knows? At the end of the day, the “new” Ritter did not overcome the “old” Ritter’s arguments very convincingly, IMO.

Posted by: Activist Potato | May 16 2022 0:24 utc | 248

@nook
We really don’t know much. It is possible that the US, right or wrong, believes Russia is in increasing trouble, and realizing that a under desperate circumstances, the nuclear dimension becomes less remote, so now looking for an off ramp from that trajectory. For me, I see a tough fight ahead, regardless of some of the blind optimism in the comments, but one where Russia can achieve necessary military victories in the east, except the overall military goals and path to endgame (itself closely held if at all defined) remain very unclear. I.e. the political goals were spelled out at the onset, but the military goals, and how they facilitate the political, remain unknown

Posted by: Olivio | May 16 2022 0:31 utc | 249

@ 214; LOL..

Posted by: vetinLA | May 16 2022 0:31 utc | 250

Posted by: Activist Potato | May 16 2022 0:24 utc | 248
Some Youtube clown posted a video, which I didn’t watch, saying that Ritter has had a treason investigation opened on him by the Feds. While I doubt that, he has had problems with the FBI in the past over his opinions on the Iraq war inspector snafu. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he hasn’t been visited by the FBI again or if someone has warned him that given his exposure on Ukraine that he might be targeted in some fashion.
I’m still inclined to think, in the absence of any other evidence, that he’s simply second-guessing himself based on the extent of the West’s support of Ukraine and the pace of the war not being to his liking. Not sure how he came up with the “million man Ukrainian effective force” notion, though. That was just bizarre.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 0:36 utc | 251

Hear ye! Hear ye, the wise words of armchair General CarlD
According to RT, NATO’s Gen Secretary, Jens Stoltenberg just declared that be believes Ukraine will win the war against Russia.
He cites the failure to take Kiev, and the lack of progress in the Donbas as signs of failure by the Russians in their War. Therefore, with help from NATO, Ukraine can win the War.
I understand that Russia is going methodically at it, chipping away at the Ukrainian resistance and moving forward, albeit slowly.
If I were Russia, considering that I want to spare the Eastern population as much as possible, I would go through Belarus and attack the Western portion of Ukraine, where I can carpet bomb a population that is already hostile to me. Lvov, Kiev, and other big towns I would raze American style, Desdrenize other places Anglo-American style.Then, the nationalists would have to rush to the defense of their brethren in the West and would free the Eastern Ukrainians to our benevolent ministrations.
This is what I, CarlD Armchair General and Strategist Supreme would do.

Posted by: CarlD | May 16 2022 0:40 utc | 252

Interesting comment on Pepe Escobar’s Telegram channel… A description of the security around the Crimean bridge. Impressive.

The Crimean bridge is one of the most protected bridges in the world. Guarded by both the S-400 Triumph and Pantsir S-1 air defense systems, the Whirlwind missile system, and the Plavnik sonar and suppression of saboteurs – when divers (or ordinary divers) are detected at a distance closer than 300 meters from the bridge, a sound signal is turned on with the requirement to leave the restricted area. If an uninvited guest does not change course and swims closer to the bridge supports than 100 meters, the intensity of the sound signal increases sharply, to the pain threshold, and the person cannot stand it – emerges.
The bridge, in addition to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB, is guarded by a special naval brigade of the Russian Guard – they patrol the water area on anti-sabotage boats, and are also armed with two-medium assault rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers and MANPADS. Also, the bridge is protected by the EW (electronic warfare) service – incl. enforces a ban on flying drones.
@krimski (https://t.me/poritsatel/6135)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 0:40 utc | 253

Interesting comment by the https://t.me/polkovnik_hodarenok Telegram channel, quoting Ukrainian sources…

The Ukrainian defense industry managed to recover only 1.5% of the damage caused by the RF Armed Forces. This was recognized in Kyiv. But first things first.
In the tg-space of Ukraine, such a quote is dispersed. “The financial losses of the invaders on Ukrainian soil are growing. Ukroboronprom enterprises restored captured equipment with a total cost of UAH 1.5 billion. At the same time, the amount of damage caused by the invaders to the state defense industry has already amounted to more than UAH 100 billion.”
Of course, the figures about 1.5 billion are a fantasy, but if (as an intellectual experiment) it is recognized, then it must be fixed: the Ukrainian defense industry lost equipment and resources by 100 billion, and recovered by 1.5 billion. By 1.5% … This is a confession in disaster.
#Ukraine

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 0:46 utc | 254

From wikipedia

During the 2014 War in Donbas Savchenko, a first lieutenant in the Ukrainian Ground Forces, served as instructor with a volunteer infantry unit, the Aidar Battalion. In June 2014, she was captured by pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine[7] and handed over to Russia where she was accused of having directed artillery fire that killed two Russian state-television journalists at the positions of pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.[8]
After returning to Ukraine, Savchenko declared her intention to participate as a presidential candidate in the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election.[20] However, she was arrested on 22 March 2018, charged with planning a terrorist attack to overthrow the Ukrainian government.
In 2016, Savchenko left Batkivshchyna, but remained a member of its parliamentary faction.[4] This was announced on 12 December 2016 right after Savchenko had admitted she had recently held a secret meeting with separatist leaders Aleksandr Zakharchenko (of the Donetsk People’s Republic) and Igor Plotnitsky (of the Luhansk People’s Republic) in Minsk.[4][83] On 15 December 2016, Batkivshchyna expelled Savchenko from its parliamentary faction in response to her Minsk meeting with Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky.[84][85] The party saw this meeting as “negotiations with terrorists” and “adamantly opposed” it.[84][nb 1] Following this controversy, the Ukrainian parliament stripped Savchenko of her PACE membership on 22 December 2016

Wikipedia try to steer around the fact that after being pardoned and returning to Ukraine she wanted to negotiate and make peace with the separatist regions. From Aidar to peacemaker.
There is currently a large umber of POW’s undergoing the same process. I would be surprised to see some or all being released (apart from the war criminals) once this part of the operation – clearing the republics to their administrative borders – is over.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2022 0:50 utc | 255

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 20:44 utc | 177
@darren price – heavy losses? Struggle? Man… Weed is bad!
You would know I guess. But thanks for the PSA.
If you seriously believe Russia is having an easy time in this war and not facing a tough fight I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Posted by: darren price | May 16 2022 0:53 utc | 256

@17, Et Tu…
You’re obviously concern trolling. Kindly shut up.

Posted by: line islands | May 16 2022 0:54 utc | 257

@ james | May 15 2022 17:30 utc | 106
Thanks for posting that, an excellent interview, as good an assessment as any I have seen. Even better than that, it is going to be very difficult to dismiss the guy’s views because of his background, making it even more valuable material.

Posted by: MarkU | May 16 2022 0:54 utc | 258

Jimmy Dore puts the boot into the demoncrazis and the fraudsquad.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 16 2022 1:00 utc | 259

Post 189
“At the end of the day they added nothing to Marx’s observation that consciousness is a product of material conditions.”
Is it not rather that material conditions are the product of consciousness?
Also re: Scott Ritter retake
Wasn’t he incorrectly stating G . Lira was dead and then forced to retract?
He’s just one person with a somewhat qualified opinion.

Posted by: osi | May 16 2022 1:01 utc | 260

& the vileness of american ‘foreign policy’
just a snippet here from Mike Billington with Executive Intelligence Review interviewing Col. Richard Black (ret.)
https://schillerinstitute.com/blog/2022/04/26/video-col-richard-black-u-s-leading-world-to-nuclear-war/
Col. Richard Black — U.S. Leading World to Nuclear War
“….But the United States has a strategic policy of using proxies to engage in war. And our objective was to overthrow the legitimate government of Syria, and in order to do that, we employed proxy soldiers who were the most vile of all terrorists. Something very similar is happening right now in in Ukraine….”

Posted by: michaelj72 | May 16 2022 1:02 utc | 261

I haven’t seen any comments about the issuance of new SDRs (special drawing rights) by the IMF this june, as well as the adjustment of the SDR currency basket by the BIS. To me it seems (and Michael Hudson made some comments about it) like the secret weapon/last straw of the west to keep poorer nations in the US economic orbit. They will face the choice of either paying astronomical prices to feed their population (how?) or take on some new IMF SDR debt (to pay astronomical food prices). One big questions seems to be the role of China in all this as the yuan/renmimbi is expected to gain a much bigger weight in the new SDR basket. I guess a critical point for Russia is to convince China they are winning this war otherwise China might lose confidence and agree to this devilish plan of the west.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 16 2022 1:05 utc | 262

Rybar explains why Ritter’s “million man army” is bullshit. They also explain where Ritter got that notion – from the Ukrainians! Amazing…Scott believed this shit?

Will Ukraine be able to put up a million bayonets?
Recently, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov promised to mobilize up to a million Ukrainians in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, “extremely difficult weeks” await the country in the near future.
Later, the theme of total mobilization was continued by Advisor to the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovich. According to him, five million inhabitants can be put under arms in Kyiv, but this is impractical due to the impossibility of equipping such a large number of people.
How realistic are the plans for the imminent conscription of a million people into the Ukrainian army?
Even with the current number of mobilized, Ukraine is already having problems. Members of the territorial defense complain about the lack of weapons and training when sent to the front, which sometimes leads (https://t.me/rybar/32143) to protests in cities. There are also purely economic reasons: for example, IT workers are losing orders due to a possible call.
Already now in Ukraine they are mobilizing everyone who can be reached. Summons are handed out in the markets, in post offices and shopping centers, and military commissars actively go from house to house. But the number of conscripts is still far from desired due to the numerous draft dodgers.
A huge number of Ukrainian politicians mobilized in statements are largely focused on the Russian audience in order to create a media visibility of the enormous power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and cause panic in Russia. [MY NOTE: Looks like it worked on Scott…]
At the moment, the Ukrainian mobilization potential, despite some judgments, is far from being exhausted. The Armed Forces of Ukraine can still recruit tens of thousands of people and try to plug holes in the front with them. [MY NOTE: Where they will die…which is exactly what Scott Ritter used to say!]
The Western curators of Kyiv have set a course for war to the last Ukrainian: against this background, the expectation that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are about to run out of people is at least extremely reckless.
And yet the Ukrainian mobilization potential is not infinite. It’s not just about the number of people, but also the consequences of conscripting a large number of able-bodied men for the economy, which is already suffering from almost universal (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/48651) production and resource problems.
Sooner or later, the moment will come when the Kyiv authorities, even with Western assistance, will have to make certain adjustments to their plans, taking into account the difficult socio-economic situation. The question is exactly when this will happen.
#Ukraine
@rybar

And even if all that happened as the Ukrainians say – which is next to impossible – what will Russia do? Commit another couple hundred thousand troops and tanks. As someone said above, plenty of military districts left in Russia. They don’t have to mobilize at all short of confronting a full-scale NATO invasion – which Russia would never allow to be built up in the first place.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:05 utc | 263

Posted by: osi | May 16 2022 1:01 utc | 260
“Wasn’t he incorrectly stating G . Lira was dead and then forced to retract?”
I have to defend Scott here. He never said definitely that Lira was dead, just like it was very possible or even probable. I saw his video on that. That opinion wasn’t much different from anyone else’s at the time. I mean, Lira himself said that if no one heard from him for 12 hours, we should assume he was captured. And in Ukraine these days, that usually means dead. So Ritter’s view was by no means unreasonable.
Where I’m not sure of his sources is about the alleged story about 750 Russian FSB officials being fired for allegedly misleading the Russians on Ukrainian attitudes and the possibility of an easy surrender. Martyanov dismisses that with the reasonable statement that the FSB would be gutted if that many senior people were fired. Ritter never mentioned where he got that information. I suspect he got it from Western intelligence sources.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:10 utc | 264

Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 0:36 utc | 251
I think Ritter is looking at it purely from an American military and experience of their shortcomings ‘of winning hearts and minds’ perspective.
Over the last week or so there have been a number of issues that stumped me as to the overall strategy and the failure at the Donets crossing/bridgehead topped that off.
I guess most of us have been looking at this with the idea that denazificasion would come about by Russia military moving through Ukraine killing or capturing extremists, but now I don’t think that is how deanzification will occur. I fact I now think that at some point, Russia will pull out of the Khakiv admin area completely.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2022 1:11 utc | 265

Posted by: MarkU | May 16 2022 0:54 utc | 258
“Even better than that, it is going to be very difficult to dismiss the guy’s views because of his background, making it even more valuable material.”
See my numerous above. It ain’t hard at all.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:11 utc | 266

@ Tom_Q_Collins | May 15 2022 19:04 utc | 135 Re:
“I’ve never seen this level of real time narrative control and I don’t know that a lot of people realize the ramifications for it in future history textbooks and popular myths which will be accepted as the truth”
I wouldn’t worry too much about that, the history books are generally written by the winners. If NATO doesn’t back down from this there will be no history books anyhow.

Posted by: MarkU | May 16 2022 1:11 utc | 267

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2022 1:11 utc | 265
I’m not sure what the Kharkiv area value is, other than being one of the larger cities and being in the northeast. Since I don’t know the Russian operational plan or their assessment of the area, I think any comment about what’s going on there is complete speculation at this point. I haven’t seen any overall assessment of the area by anyone with competence to assess so far.
What I do know is that Russia will commit whatever forces it needs to any area that needs it, and that any area which is not immediately important will have any forces sent there previously withdrawn and recommitted to more important priorities. As Mercouris points out, any Ukrainian forces who move subsequent to a withdrawal is not a “victory”. As someone mentioned in a previous post above, this is not about territory, it is about destroying the Ukrainian army. There are priorities in that, and apparently Kharkiv is not a priority over Donbass.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:19 utc | 268

@FZappa, 21:55
Google intermarium. The poles have a real thing for it and the ideological side of the Ukrainian fascists have taken it up too. But just like every time someone’s tried to put the idea into practice historically everyone fights over who’s the most important part of the geopolitical grouping. I believe that a few NATO officers and associated think tankers have openly talked about it too.

Posted by: Lex | May 16 2022 1:19 utc | 269

From Intel Slava Z Telegram channel on Finland and Sweden…

The head of the German Foreign Ministry actually admitted that Sweden and Finland, who announced their plans to join NATO, have actually become part of the alliance for a long time: “They are already members of NATO without formal membership.”
Since 2014, Finland and Sweden have been participating in the NATO Interoperability Initiative of partner countries, are involved in exercises and some NATO operations, being part of the Alliance Response Force (NRF). Helsinki also has a memorandum allowing logistical support to be provided to Allied forces “during exercises or in times of crisis”.

Just like Ukraine… The only difference being that Ukraine had the military size to threaten Russia if full NATO support was there, or at least, the eastern republics. And of course Ukraine is full of neo-Nazi lunatics.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:24 utc | 270

@ Richard Steven Hack | May 15 2022 21:26 utc | 193 Re:
“As I pointed out repeatedly here, after the Donbass reduction is done, Russia will have 150,000 or more troops with all the armor and artillery it needs to make a clean sweep of the remaining Ukrainian military, after Kharkiv, Nykolaiv and Odessa are taken. That will be a full-on Russian armored maneuver warfare across open steppes with full air superiority.”
If that doesn’t happen as you described, will you please promise to stop dissing everyone that doesn’t agree with you in every detail? In my world you only get kudos in the Cassandra stakes when reality bears out your predictions.

Posted by: MarkU | May 16 2022 1:24 utc | 271

Posted by: William Gruff | May 15 2022 20:39 utc | 174
I wasn’t even commenting here today, backbitter! Besides, there’s a weird cyber discombobulation happening with the site today I have no patience for. Hands off MOA, you free speech saboteurs!
Long time no see, Gruff. Miss me, genius? Were you so bored with yourself, you had to get a rise by pissing this thread with koo-koo paranoid pretzel logic?
Einstein was right. Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe. Are you trying to prove his theory?
Trump needs his boots licked down in Mar a Lago. So on your knees sycophant; get busy doing what you do best!
You’re for U.S. supremacy; that’s right–same as Trump. Ergo, the limp dud you hastily whipped out meant to take out my unconditional support for Russia. Yeah, unconditional, as in all in. No doubt to your chagrin, maybe? I don’t do concern; I want victory to be spelled with a capital Z.
So what’s your game? Hmmm… Ever since the SMO started you rarely comment. I know because I read this site a lot, and your absence is…puzzling if not glaring? Today, it’s obvious you showed up to target me, coz I wasn’t even on the thread! Oh yeah, there’s the one other psycho-babble comment you wrote to make your presence look good. Methinks, maybe you’re on my tail…nasty saboteur?
FYI Bernie was a means to an end; end being the operative word, and Biden can’t handle war of any kind, let alone keep from tying his own shoe laces together then trip all over himself. He can’t handle war with Russia. He made a sloppy mess just exiting from Afghanistan and he’s driving the U.S. into a ditch. I’m all for that! How about you? I hear crickets already…😉

Posted by: Circe | May 16 2022 1:33 utc | 272

Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:19 utc | 268 “I think any comment about what’s going on there is complete speculation at this point.”
As is virtual everything written in regards Russia’s moves in Ukraine – none of which fits.
Russia’s modus operandi I think gives a better indication of what their strategy is for Ukraine.
Putin described Ukraine as a brotherly country so I think we have to look at Chechnya and Syria for modus operandi. Russian modus operadi with Ukraine characteristics.
I suspect ‘moderate rebels’ will undertake the bulk of Ukraine denazification – current POW’s may well form the core of those’moderate rebels’.
What is occurring at the moment is just as much a pysop as it is a kinetic operation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2022 1:35 utc | 273

Oh yeah, one more thing, Gruff and whoever tries to pull that type of stunt with me.: Don’t mess with Circe!

Posted by: Circe | May 16 2022 1:41 utc | 274

K #154
To Et Tu

Are you seriously using the ABC, Australian Banderra Chapter as a creditle source?

Agreed, the ABC is clearly not credible. Has been a totally infiltrated conservative news service for some decades. Barely any independent journalism from there ever let alone now.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 16 2022 1:43 utc | 275

As usual, MoA comments provide great insights. Thank you all! Just finished an article, which draws upon B’s work and some of the discussion here (and credits it).
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/is-the-uaf-gaining-ground?s=w
I am a Canadian analyst living in Japan and see things from a slightly different perspective. Ritter is getting impatient. He is, after all, a Marine, trained in the American tradition of “war”, which like “love” is in the eye of the beholder. So he hungers for “real” war, with the gloves off. Putin, however, is quite right to insist that this is not a “war” as most of the world thinks it; it is a special operation — with the emphasis on “special”, basically a police operation with soldiers risking their lives to save civilian lives and preserve the basis for livelihood. The “west” thinks “war” and it thinks Dresden, Hiroshima, Fallujah, or maybe Vietnam” : wars against the “Other”, people who look and think differently and therefore are not really people. But the Ukraine is culturally Russian, except maybe Galicia. And even Galicia is less different from Russian than, say, Arkansas is from New York State or New Mexico. Putin sees a conflict whose resolution cannot be just military, and in that sense the Russians broke the UAF in the first two weeks as surely as the Americans did the Japanese at the Battle of the Philippines in 1944. The Japanese kept on fighting and did a lot of damage, but after 1944, defeat for them was never in doubt although they claimed to be winning — even after Hiroshima. Even at the end, the Japanese still had weapons, some of them quite good — but not good enough–nor the right ones. They had the world’s two largest and best battleships, but no carriers. They developed great aircraft, but didn’t have trained pilots to fly, nor adequate tactics.

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | May 16 2022 1:43 utc | 276

The word is backbiter. Sorry, for the typo.

Posted by: Circe | May 16 2022 1:45 utc | 277

@259 Jimmy Dore certainly nails the problem. The so-called progressives have become the war party. Anybody who disagrees is an unpatriotic Putin puppet. Hard to understand how that happened. I can only assume the Democrats think they are saying what the American people want to hear.

Posted by: dh | May 16 2022 1:45 utc | 278

Et Tu #167

I am sorry the fact that the first link i was provided with from Google was from the ABC, who’s bias i am well aware of from my 20+ years of living in Australia :))).
Ironically, an appropriate saying i learned there comes to mind: don’t shoot the messenger.
It appears i overestimated your ability to formulate your own opinion of a video, regardless of where it is posted.

I am equally at fault here. Apologies and my shout.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 16 2022 1:49 utc | 279

Posted by: MarkU | May 16 2022 1:24 utc | 271
“If that doesn’t happen as you described, will you please promise to stop dissing everyone that doesn’t agree with you in every detail? In my world you only get kudos in the Cassandra stakes when reality bears out your predictions.”
And if it does happen, will you STFU?
Thought not.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 1:50 utc | 280

“Hermann Goering’s Quote On War And The People. “Naturally the common people don’t want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood.”
The basic of pysops. The anglo world in its pysops uses the very basic principle of creating an enemy to keep us in perpetual.
Russia pysops – perhaps not the opposite but with a great understanding of this basic principle of human nature – Naturally the common people don’t want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany – use it to great affect. It was used in Chechnya and used in Syria. And it will be used in Ukraine.
Fighting a defensive war/just war vs fighting for empire.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2022 1:50 utc | 281

It appears i overestimated your ability to formulate your own opinion of a video, regardless of where it is posted.
@ Et Tu
I am equally at fault here. Apologies and my shout.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 16 2022 1:49 utc | 279
Uncle T that comment was replied to me not you, are you getting the numbers confused or did B change them? Anyway his post demonstrates exactly what Et Tu thinks of people on this blog. I’m supposed to follow his link and examine a photo which as we all know very well can be tampered with, and if I don’t want to do what he wants, I’m an idiot without the ability to form an opinion?
And you just stroked his ego and encouraged him to continue? Bah humbug! I don’t like the term troll, but I think this person is baiting and disingenuous at the very least.
Mind you I did not and won’t ask for him to be removed, but will ignore him in future as other here do with real “trolls”

Posted by: K | May 16 2022 2:01 utc | 282

@ Don Bacon
re your posts about Mass shootings in the US. Did it appear that these were less frequent since the Russian SMO? Or was it just that the media was distracted? (I’m not in the US)
Thanks

Posted by: K | May 16 2022 2:04 utc | 283

@ RSH – 251
Ritter. . . has had problems with the FBI in the past over his opinions on the Iraq war inspector snafu. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he hasn’t been visited by the FBI again or if someone has warned him that given his exposure on Ukraine that he might be targeted in some fashion.
The FBI may want to entrap him, as they did with Michael Flynn who first disclosed (as chief of Pentagon intelligence) that ISIS was supported by the US (Obama and Kerry). Not nice. Then when Trump appointed General Flynn as NSA it all went down hill thanks to the FBI. . .you said this on that day, then you said that on this day. . .obviously a crook. ha ha ha, gotcha, pal.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 2:07 utc | 284

@ RSH 268
I’m not sure what the Kharkiv area value is,…
. . .from my 244:

Karkiv is in the news a lot, only because the new Russian GLOCs (ground lines of Communication, basically roads) run nearby which were intended to provide the Russian Army a “back door” to the Ukie defences oriented towards the south. So it may happen the Russia will have to turn to Plan B, that is attacking and defeating the entrenched Ukie defending forces head-on. So it goes. Russia needs to just do it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 2:18 utc | 285

Tom_Q_Collins #125

Does anyone have any thoughts on the actual content of this post at Yasha Levine’s Substack? Not interested in name calling or the like; I’m genuinely curious about his points, assuming he’s actually making any besides PUTIN=BAD!!! PUTIN IS LOSING!!! PUTIN IS A TYRANICAL DICTATOR!!!
https://yasha.substack.com/p/finland-knocking-on-natos-door-does?

IMO Yasha writes good stuff occasionally, and pure unadulterated tosh other times. I gave up on him a while back as he seems to suffer from the shit he projects onto others.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 16 2022 2:24 utc | 286

@K 283
Mass shootings. . . less frequent?
I don’t have the numbers. but it seems that shootings of one or three have been extended to a dozen. There’s nothing to be done about it, too many people “packin,” which is protected by the Constitution.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 2:25 utc | 287

Sushi | May 15 2022 18:00 utc | 117 about problems with “wonky” and slow site response
Yes, I have the same problem today and occasionally yesterday

Posted by: fanto | May 16 2022 2:39 utc | 288

Hungary’s new president condemns Putin’s ‘aggression’, plans trip to Warsaw . . .here. Novak, a former Fidesz party lawmaker and ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, was elected to the largely ceremonial post of president in March, shortly before Orban won another landslide victory in elections on April 3.
(Those are the ceremonies for me.)

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 3:25 utc | 289

Mercouris discusses Scott Ritter’s change of heart and Ritter’s notions of the possibility of Ukraine holding the line based on Western weapons. His basic opinion is that the West had three plans: Plan A – economic war; failed; Plan B – flooding Ukraine with light weapons; failed; and Plan C – flooding Ukraine with artillery and armor and other systems; probably going to fail. He discusses why Plan C is likely to fail, making some of the points I make.
Mercouris is not military. But his main point is correct: that what is being sent is not going to replace the weapons being destroyed by Russia on anything like a 1-to-1 ratio, which is critical to the point Ritter tried to make about the West standing up essentially a “new Ukrainian army.” He also points out that much of the so-called “Ukrainian aid package”, regardless of whether it ends up being $70 billion or more, is mostly aimed at replacing weapons systems for NATO countries. He also points out that there is a time frame involved – can the West stand up a new Ukrainian army that is in fact effective against an unleashed Russian army in the next six months? Doubtful at best.
So basically he agrees that Scott Ritter’s concerns are overblown, although of course he doesn’t directly criticize Ritter. He did make reference to the term “concern”, however, stopping short of calling people who believe this stuff “concern trolls.”
EU ‘To Accept’ Gas for Roubles, West Ramps Up Military Support for Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkBc0SiHDkg

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 3:27 utc | 290

That armchair general declaration was funny!
If there isn’t some kind of positive outcome from this, and the collective west writes history books, it doesn’t much matter. From that point on what left of humanity will be living in a pure fantasy land, which it greatly resembles already.

Posted by: Geoff | May 16 2022 3:27 utc | 291

@ Paco | May 15 2022 19:47 utc | 152
thanks paco.. that is an old story, although dated may 15th in the telegram link… i see it the same way as norwegian who replied to you a few posts after yours.. cheers.
@ MarkU | May 16 2022 0:54 utc | 258
thanks mark! i thought it was quite good too.. glad you took the time to check it out…
@ K – i see et tu the same way.. they are on ignore for me… cheers…
@ richard and peter au – Kharkiv area
i see this as the same type of play as russian troops around kiev… russia is playing for time as they work on there first priority – donbass.. this guy did a video over a week ago on this, but here is one from a day ago which i haven’t listened to yet – ( the new atlas ) – Ukraine “Wins” Battle of Kharkov that Never Happened
thanks folks for the posts and exchange..

Posted by: james | May 16 2022 3:40 utc | 292

sushi and fanto
ditto me from a day or two ago.. probs with moa….

Posted by: james | May 16 2022 3:41 utc | 293

I don’t have the numbers. but it seems that shootings of one or three have been extended to a dozen. There’s nothing to be done about it, too many people “packin,” which is protected by the Constitution.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 2:25 utc | 287

Hope this is a joke or that I’m misunderstanding your comment. I currently live in one of the most armed states in the US and there is almost no crime. Look at Chicago. Perfect example of your flawed thinking. Most forearm deaths are from idiots shooting each other with pistols. Gang type violence. Good riddance to them. Most others here handle firearms responsibly. Take a couple seconds to educate yourself.

Posted by: some_guy | May 16 2022 3:43 utc | 294

Look for some ‘news’ coming up about weapons: “Russians confirm they are hitting Ukrainian targets with banned cluster and phosphorus weapons” but the facts are that (1) United States and Russia have not signed
The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) and (2) the use of white phosphorous is legal but not on civilians.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 16 2022 3:52 utc | 295

anyone following this guy closely?? Defense Politics Asia
Russian Perspective: Strategic Situation Briefing May 14th

Posted by: james | May 16 2022 3:58 utc | 296

Posted by: james | May 16 2022 3:58 utc | 295
I have watched some of his videos early on. As I’ve mentioned before, these sorts of tactical movement videos aren’t that useful. However at least this guy points out road networks and other features which help to explain why a military unit movement is likely being done. And occasionally he’s done an “up to date” overview video which establishes what has happened to date, which are valuable for seeing the progression of the movements. Watching those really shows how Ukraine is losing.
The main problem I have with him is aesthetic – he bounces the map in and out constantly which practically gives me a headache. 🙂

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 16 2022 4:09 utc | 297

Nazis are on the move and caused heavy casualties on Russians. However Russia can’t afford to lose the war. If push comes to shove a Hiroshima and Nagasaki must be done to Kiev and Lviv to force Ukraine to surrender and instill some sense in the west. Russia’s existence is under threat. Two tactical nukes can be used. It will also give real life clues on how it impacts and send a powerful message to Finland, Sweden and NATO that their aggressive expansion must stop.

Posted by: Jason | May 16 2022 4:11 utc | 298

@ 296 richard… thanks.. i agree with your last line..
@ 297 jason.. crazy talk…

Posted by: james | May 16 2022 4:15 utc | 299

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | May 16 2022 1:43 utc | 276
Not sure I agree Americans were winning. Why do you think the U.S. resorted to dropping Little Boy on the Japanese? That’s an unthinkable, obscene calculation when the other side is losing. A WMD of that magnitude should never enter into the military equation under those circumstances, maybe any circumstances, but definitely not when the other side is already headed for defeat.

Posted by: Circe | May 16 2022 4:15 utc | 300