So Scott Ritter, who I have a lot of respect for and therefore concern over this, has overnight changed his view on the Ukraine war to unwinable as the West will “bleed it dry” with endless weapons flow. Any riposte? If Russia is stalemated maybe it will look back and find its big error was that it is in an existential war but did not treat it as such from the outset failing to take the gloves off early enough or heavily enough. Also underestimating the fact the US and collective West also viewed this as an existential battle to retain global hegemony and DID take the gloves off before Russia could secure victory and dictate terms. I hope he’s wrong because if theUS/NATO succeeds in its aims this will set back world peace and establishing equity in the sharing of resources for a generation.

Posted by: daisuke | May 15 2022 12:06 utc | 3

The concern trolls are starting early today. Russia maintains escalation dominance in Ukraine. There is telegram channel videos of the “O” group moving in Ukraine. They are the heavy assault BTGs. They were not used before and are being brought in now. The quotes Ritter also has discussed the attrition rate being around 15-1. This doesn’t mean the Russians and LDNR forces are not taking losses. It does mean the VSU is losing at an incredible and unsustainable rate. Who’s is being bled dry here? The VSU is over. As far as western weapons, I’ve seen pictures of 1 triple 7 in the Donbas and even it was supposedly captured.
(All notes are subject to me not being on the ground or privy to the Russian general staff meetings)

Posted by: MikeH | May 15 2022 12:18 utc | 5

I don’t follow everything Ritter has to say but if he said so he probably needs to take a nap.
Already there’s not much army left, among captured soldiers are 50 and 70 year olds. Those trapped in Donbass post messages online about losing battles and all commanders leaving them alone to die.
Sure, the “West” will turn to terrorism, both inside Ukraine and try to target Russia and Belarus. All those manpads were sent to shoot down civilian aircraft in the future, they surely knew they don’t work well on Russian military planes. Just like those $80bn weapons “forgotten” in Afghanistan.
And I doubt Russia is in a hurry. The sanctions destroy EU and hurt US, why not let them be as long as possible? Also elensky is torturing his own people by using civilians as shield and sending everyone to die unprepared. I doubt Russian precision missile count is below 90% and even if it is, all factories work to restore it. This is just training for Finland, Sweden and whatever Obama plans next.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 12:21 utc | 7

I watched the Ritter interview.
He said Russia is winning in the East, thier goal.
He said they will have to find a way to address the West’s build-up in the West which is turning this into a war.
His remarks should not be taken out of context.

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | May 15 2022 12:28 utc | 9

I watched the video as well and Scott Ritter is alarmed, by recent developments, and has done an about-face in his assessment of the war. He notes that howitzers are getting through, Russia either unable or unwilling to stop their transit, that they are having their effect; albeit on the periphery, Russia is suffering significant losses and that “demilitarization” is not in fact taking place. He fears that Ukraine still has significant forces, what with weaponry getting through, to change the calculus of the war, in much the way Russia did, vs Germany, in WWII. His panic is palpable. Striking, given his ongoing stark dismissal of Ukraine’s prospects.

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 12:32 utc | 11

Scott Ritter may or may not be worth listening to. Certainly Russian forced do not hinge on his take. But his comments are not being taken out of context. He is in a panic. His earlier bravado is shattered.

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 12:43 utc | 13

Read again: Armored COMBAT vehicles. Russia also says they have destroyed about 3000 other armored vehicles.
There is only one way tanks and ACVs received after 2/24 can make up the discrepancy. And that is if there are no tanks+ACVs left. The rate of destroyed tanks+ACVs is somewhat lower the last days, but nowhere near zero.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 12:58 utc | 15

@ Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 12:42 utc | 12
“Somewhere, somehow, something doesn’t match up. Please enlighten me.”
While it is easy to see the bs behind the Ukraine MoD statements, from Ghost of Kiev etc… many Russia fanboys have a hard time admitting it is a game being played on both sides, perhaps not as extensively when one is winning, but nevertheless, to bs is human and Russians are no exception.
IMHO, the more one side is close to losing, the more it will bs and the more it will suppress unfavourable reporting, so in future, try to look at that as a measure of how things are actually progressing.

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 13:12 utc | 17

Posted by: Dale | May 15 2022 12:43 utc | 13
Can you chill, please? Scott Ritter sometimes uses unreliable sources such as Daily Mail/Telegraph with their claim that Putin fired 150 GRU officers, so his inference from time to time is wrong.
And anyway, the vast majority of the supplied armaments are too old to be of any use in the current battleground; the new NATO weapons take quite a lot of time to train so they are not an issue yet. The only succeful strategy that ukrainians are using at the moment is the mobile artillery strikes due to the superior intelligence provided by NATO recon.

Posted by: Bloke from block 8 | May 15 2022 13:14 utc | 19

Re Scott Ritter’s recent re-assessment of the smo. If Putin really believes it’s existential, and if Ritter is correct then at some point Russia will be obliged to substantially raise the anti to demonstrate it is not bluffing.

Posted by: Krypton | May 15 2022 13:19 utc | 21

I thought NATO and its Ukrainian HiWis had spent 8 years building a fortified line to draw Russia into the Donbass to face destruction – but since Russia came from the rear and let DPR face the LOC – the HiWis had abandoned fortified positions to retreat into populated areas and use civilians as cover.
Since Russia is moving over open flat ground satellites monitor and NATO passes intelligence to HiWis executing its strategy. It is clear Ukrainian artillery is located in towns and cities and as near to hospitals, residential areas, and schools as possible.
The part that surprises me though is the open door near Odessa into Romania. I understand they don’t want Odessa to look like Mariupol, but am not clear how they avoid surprises from that quarter.
At some stage they will need to blind NATO by destroying satellites or AWACs. I am also surprised they have not rendered Azovstal dark and cut communications. Somewhere on Telegram I saw they had pigs down there in Azovstal which certainly gets rid of cadavers and provides meat………

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 15 2022 13:28 utc | 23

Like the US and the UK the EU is pledging huge amounts of taxpayers cash for Ukraine, wit many people now struggling to pay bills and heat their homes the USA’s war on Russia will see Europeans and poorer American’s suffer for years to come.
“Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, on Friday announced that the bloc would provide a further 500 million euros worth of military support to Ukraine.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 15 2022 13:41 utc | 25

b | May 15 2022 13:24 utc | 22
Sat guidance wouldn’t actually work under an e-war blanket anyway so you *could* just be looking at a risk calculation. A situation where you have the ‘shiny bit’ failing in an environment where it would be bad for publicity and morale.

Posted by: S.O. | May 15 2022 13:44 utc | 27

@Paul Greenwood | May 15 2022 13:28 utc | 23

The part that surprises me though is the open door near Odessa into Romania. I understand they don’t want Odessa to look like Mariupol, but am not clear how they avoid surprises from that quarter.

Russia steps up attacks on Ukraine’s rail network

On April 26, a Russian long range missile, reportedly fired from an aircraft operating over the Donbas region, hit the Pidyomnyy Mist bridge west of Odesa. This bridge carries the single track Odesa-Bilhorod/Izmail electrified railway, a road, and power cables. It forms the only transport link over the Dniester River to Ukrainian territory west of Odesa, close to the borders with Moldova and Romania.

Google Map: Pidyomnyy Mist bridge

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 13:48 utc | 29

You can think MoD is lying but they’re not. Those are armored combat vehicles in total, not tanks alone. Only Ghost of Kiev destroyed hundreds of airplanes at first, later they settled to a count of 40 or something like that.
Yesterday Ukr published a photo of a downed Ka but it was a photo from many years ago, accident near Moscow. They didn’t even mirror it or crop it, like they usually do when they show the same photo 2-3x as being different events.
This is sad, stupid propaganda for brainwashed people, to support sanctions against themselves.
Also: NATO intends to increase its military presence in the Baltic region in order to ensure the security of Sweden and Finland before joining the alliance – Stoltenberg.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 13:51 utc | 31

“Concern trolling” is an accusation of insincere sympathy with someone else’s problems, usually with the opposite intent.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 15 2022 12:21 utc | 6
I’ve been wondering what people mean by that. Thanks for a concise definition.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 13:59 utc | 33

It shouldn’t be forgotten that Scott Ritter wildly underestimated how long this operation would take (he thought Ukraine would be conquered by 200,000 Russian troops in….two weeks) and his predictions about what happens in the future should be taken with an extremely large amount of salt.
One thing that should be considered is that Russia is deliberately moving slowly. There is a historical exemplar for this. When Franco took Spain, he deliberately took his time, moving very slowly throughout the whole country in order to completely quash the Republican resistance.
But a number of things for the ‘Russia is losing’ crowd.
If Russia is losing why did the US just ask for a ceasefire?
If Russia is losing why don’t they mobilise more troops?
If Russia is losing why are the Ukrainians, shrilly and with rising levels of hysteria prancing round from European capital to European (and North American) capital demanding more guns? If the Ukraine is on the point of winning, why do they need more guns?
As Putin has made clear throughout, he has no interest in regime change or, for that matter, the entire West of the country. He wants a Russian buffer state between US-controlled Ukraine and the Russian border. He wants to destroy the Ukrainian army as a viable fighting force and kill all the Nazis (something we should be encouraging him in doing, incidentally. I know it makes me sound old-fashioned but my personal opinion is that Nazis are bad).
When that’s done (and it will be done by September at the latest) the war is over. Swathes of the East will be offered the choice of joining Russia or staying with the Ukies who hate them. If they join the Russians, well and good. If they vote to stay with the Ukies and become second-class citizens in their own country: that’s their choice.
Presumably Russia and the Eastern parts of Ukraine (now retaken back into the Motherland) will have to be surrounded by an anti-fascist defence barrier like the so-called ‘Berlin Wall’ to keep out white supremacists, Nazis, White Power terrorists and the rest, who will infest Ukraine for decades to come. These people will instead wreak havoc in European capitals, which Europeans will be delighted with as it will facilitate an ever great crackdown on freedom of movement and freedom of information.

Posted by: Hidari | May 15 2022 14:07 utc | 35

Et Tu | May 15 2022 11:55 utc | 1
Confused? Losing good faith? Concerned that you are unable to discern more than one side to this site?
Have you considered signing up for Putin’s “Daily Briefing Email”? Every morning at 06:00 am (Moskva Time), you can receive his “Orders of the Day”, plus usually, concise outlines of of the important factors informing his most significant orders and threats.
Best of all : you can reply directly to Vladimir Vladimirovich; inform him directly, without relying on the unreliable flunkies here, just exactly what kind of an idiot he is!

Posted by: Otter | May 15 2022 14:10 utc | 37

“Concern trolling” accusations are the ad hominem trolling of those who do not like to hear that which they do not want to hear.
Just like the US empire, you are only capable of projecting that which you are.
There is a lot of real estate between Russia fanboying and Neocon warmongering, sadly, it appears to be very sparsely populated.

Posted by: Et Tu | May 15 2022 14:16 utc | 39

Any video I’ve seen of those 8 year heavily fortified lines shows quickly dug shallow and small dirt trenches with a few log and earth huts. Have read repeatedly of the millions of tons of concrete poured and have seen zero of that. Only useful fortification that seems to exist is being embedded in towns full of civilians. Russia remains reluctant to bomb civilian areas. It is hard to see that as a bad thing.
The M777 is a piece of crap. Titanium is cool stuff but there are real basic engineering limits. Ti is very flexible, to get past that it is necessary to use more of it and to use large section. By the time the flex is overcome basically you are back to the weight of steel. Maybe 5% lighter. Weight savings from Ti happens from careful engineering. Simply because the material is expensive engineers pay close attention. Or in a perfect world they do. The M777 is very light, designed for airlift. The mere fact that it is so light is enough to know it is under built. Priority was spending money to fatten contractors. Then delete the electronics and there ain’t much left. Just moving junk around the map. Let US spend their efforts playing their game.

Posted by: Oldhippie | May 15 2022 14:19 utc | 41

@Hidari | May 15 2022 14:07 utc | 35
Very good summary on both Ritter and the prospects of the SMO in general. One thing I question though is

As Putin has made clear throughout, he has no interest in regime change or, for that matter, the entire West of the country. He wants a Russian buffer state between US-controlled Ukraine and the Russian border.

A “US-controlled Ukraine” is not acceptable, i.e. the current regime. One way or another it must go. The Russians have stated that Ukraine (i.e. “Rump Ukraine”) must be neutral, no NATO, no EU, no Nazis, demilitarized.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 14:24 utc | 43

@DutchZ
Where did you get 15:1? Using the numbers publicly shown after the first month it was >20:1 and ratio will be growing fast since trained soldiers are gone and elenski is sending men taken from the gas station waiting lines now. Also you should consider surrendered since not everyone dies for Slava Cocaini.
I doubt the total Allied troops is above 100k. So in the end the destruction they’ve inflicted on a large army, with the largest arsenal of gifted javelins in whole Europe (bigger than nato), using civilians as shields and the support of all satellites will be hard to process for the West. That’s why everything is censored in the Western media.
The mistake Russia makes is the very small or delayed economical sanctions. Yes, gas will be $3000 in winter but that’s months away. Hunger is months away. Finland was basically in nato for years and now prepares to deploy nato troops to attack Russia “tomorrow” but Russia gives them everything they need, even retreated troops many from the border. Very weak behaviour, you get nuked that way

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 14:38 utc | 45

@Et Tu #1
@daisuke #3
Scott Ritter’s original thinking was that it Russia would prevent major shipments of Western arms into the actual combat theaters of Ukraine, from their primarily Western Ukraine/Lvov entry points.
The change was due to the video of an M777 firing around Kharkov.
Note that the M777 artillery shipment from the US was 90 of them plus presumably ammunition. While 90 artillery is nothing to sneeze at, let’s put this in perspective:
According to armedforces.eu – Ukraine’s presumably pre-2/24/2022 armed forces possessed 3,721 artillery. Russia has been destroying this artillery – the 90 pieces in question are roughly 1 week of MoD artillery destroyed announcements.
So the entire shipment, even were it to have been successfully smuggled across Ukraine to Kharkov, would replace 1 week of Ukrainian artillery losses.
However, as I noted above, Ukraine is highly focused on appearance vs. reality. How hard would it be to smuggle a single M777 into Kharkov for the purposes of firing off a dozen shells? Not too hard.
Similarly, the above armedforces.eu site notes Ukraine had 2,105 tanks and 6,990 armored fighting vehicles. Just how easy would it be to ship 210 tanks and 699 AFVs into Lvov and move them 1000 km to Kharkiv or 1200 km to Donetsk/Donbas? And not be seen and attacked?
Scott Ritter has made hasty pronouncements in the past that were wrong including the start of the SMO, Lira, and others; I counsel waiting and seeing before taking his latest analysis to heart.

Posted by: c1ue | May 15 2022 14:43 utc | 47

@ c1ue | May 15 2022 14:43 utc | 47

However, as I noted above, Ukraine is highly focused on appearance vs. reality. How hard would it be to smuggle a single M777 into Kharkov for the purposes of firing off a dozen shells? Not too hard.

This is a very good point, and could be true given what we know about the propaganda efforts. We need much more hard facts before we “start worrying”.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 14:53 utc | 49

@Peter AU1 #48
Those weapons are Stingers, nLaws and Dragons etc – so small they can fit in a passenger car.
Even the M777 could fit in a civilian cargo truck, given its light weight. I can totally see an M777 being smuggled in the Ukrainian equivalent of a Safeway supply 18 wheeler…
Russia has not interdicted all civilian traffic – it would cause massive hardship for the overall population in Ukraine (unlike US warmaking practice).
However, ammunition is a different story. The weight of ammo vs. the weapon is probably 50 to 1 or more.
And “light weight” doesn’t apply at all to tanks and armored vehicles – hence my example of the challenges for replacement of 10% of Ukraine’s pre-2/24/2022 mechanized vehicle.

Posted by: c1ue | May 15 2022 14:58 utc | 51

A tweet from a Ukraine-supporting account:
The European Song Contest will be held at Azovstal, Mariupol in 2023.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1525622615490146306

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 15:01 utc | 53

The Subtleties of Anti-Russia Leftist Rhetoric

While the so-called liberal and conservative corporate mainstream media – all stenographers for the intelligence agencies – pour forth the most blatant propaganda about Russia and Ukraine that is so conspicuous that it is comedic if it weren’t so dangerous, the self-depicted cognoscenti also ingest subtler messages, often from the alternative media.

http://edwardcurtin.com/the-subtleties-of-anti-russia-leftist-rhetoric/

Posted by: Browser | May 15 2022 15:09 utc | 55

As for “concern trolling” one needs to beware wedding themselves to one narrative, or another. I find Martynov and copy pasta RSH just a bit too optistic all too often. Truth is cold, fleeting and only occasionally glimpsed if at all, so beware micro analysis based on “number of airstrikes”, or “M777 is obsolete, fragile and missing key electronics” – as if manually punching in GPS coordinates provided by a NATO UAV in real time isn’t almost as good.
IMHO, the key reality which has become apparent from how this war is unfolding is that NATO/US/UK etc are balls deep into the Ukr armed forces, providing both strategic and operational intelligence, and have been preparing for this war for a LONG time, more than eight years. It is my opinion that the US pulled out of Afghanistan in preparation for the main show that is now unfolding.
This *IS* a NATO vs Russia war, at least. And the fat lady hasn’t even warmed up yet… Watch for NATO eventually trying out the F35 fleet (even if IMHO it will go badly for them). ODESSA is going to be the key battle and I hope Russia gets over its sentimentality that it can be taken without Mariupol level damage.

Posted by: Simplicius | May 15 2022 15:27 utc | 57

– NATO’s strategy to be adopted in June may include the mention of a direct threat allegedly coming from Russia’s activities”, Bloomberg
– Manfred Weber, chairman of the EPP Group, has warned Turkey of possible isolation within NATO in case it blocks Finland’s and Sweden’s accession
– “What Russia has always been seeking to prevent has led to a situation when these two countries are highly likely to join NATO, Their accession will considerably reinforce our alliance” Baerbock said.
Told you. Russia shows a very weak behaviour in foreign policy. St Pete will go boom and Russia is afraid to hit “decision centers” in Kiev. Kiev that is shelling over the border, killing civilians for fun and planting banned anti-personnel mines everywhere they can. China will have same fate, telegram rumors say US will declare Taiwan independent this fall.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 15:30 utc | 59

oldhippie c1ue
There is something much larger occurring I think that I cannot pick up on what it is.
The river crossing and bridgehead event reminds me of the Syrian militia’s and I think some Russian mercs that crossed the Euphrates to attack ISIS in the oilfields. US in the one or two days before had handed out SDF hats to the ISIS fighters so when the militias attacked, the US blew the shit out of them in defence of its ‘SDF’. Russia did not step in on that one and I suspect the Syrian forces operated against Ru advice.
Deception is perhaps the most important part of warfare – something soviet union and now current Russia is very good at. So on one side, I think Ritter is correct and this has the potential, apart from the obvious current attrition, to develop into a long drawn out war.
I am looking at this not as in Russia should be doing this or that but rather why. What is the main game?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 15 2022 15:34 utc | 61

At this point we are a long way from exhaustion in the leadership of the Ukraine. This could easily boil for 20 years unless the Ukraine leadership gives up. It appears that the Empire has created a situation where that will not happen anytime soon.
If it is true that the NATO trained elements are that feared they could keep the government in check for many, many years. Now I realize why Putin’s main goal is to destroy them. This will not end short of that accomplishment.
What will be left is an every shrinking Ukraine and a slow moving wave of Russian forces slowly pushing. At the rate they are moving NATO may get their 20 years war. Even if a sliver of the country is left NATO will pour weapons into it if the Ukraine leadership desires.
Rest assured NATO will never give up short of a strong US president saying enough is enough. Nothing like that is on the event horizon.

Posted by: circumspect | May 15 2022 15:36 utc | 63

So now Chomsky views the media, such as The New York Times and its ilk, that he has correctly castigated for propagandizing for the U.S. in Iraq and East Timor, to use two examples, is doing “a highly creditable job in reporting Russian crimes in Ukraine,” as if suddenly they were no longer spokespeople for the CIA and U.S. disinformation. And he says this when we are in the midst of the greatest propaganda blitz since WW I, with its censorship, Disinformation Governance Board, de-platforming of dissidents, etc., that border on a parody of Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four.

— Edward Curtin, “The Subtleties of Anti-Russia Leftist Rhetoric”

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 15:44 utc | 65

https://justice4poland.com/2015/04/11/ukraina-to-nowa-chazaria-new-khazaria/
Light Sunday reading…..

Posted by: FredF | May 15 2022 15:46 utc | 67

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 15:44 utc | 65
Chomsky is long-past his sell-by date.
The man did excellent work back in the Cold War era, exposing the China Lobby and supporting the anti-war movement back in the Vietnam/Cold War days.
He’s nearly 100 years old, now. Let him rest. He is old, weak, and controlled by women who don’t have nearly the esteem for his reputation that the rest of us wish for him.
Let him rest. He’s old. He’s done his work. He deserves our respect, if not our ears.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 15 2022 15:49 utc | 69

@ The Subtleties of Anti-Russia Leftist Rhetoric
The article addresses what Chomsky is doing and saying today about this war. You seem to suggest I should despise Chomsky solely because of his age — I should ignore him like an irrelevant old person, one foot in the grave already, for crying out loud!
Categorical dismissal of old folks is bigotry I will not apply to Chomsky, sorry. He remains responsible for what he chooses to publish, if he lives to be 150.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 15 2022 15:59 utc | 71

@rk | May 15 2022 15:56 utc | 70

There are photos of a captured ammo depot with shells sent by Netherlands and painted with the inscription – “revenge for MH17”.

Yes, it was sent to those who shot MH17 down, so the logic must be that it malfunctions and kills those who fire the shells?

Posted by: Norwegian | May 15 2022 16:01 utc | 73

@Norwegian probably :))))
@eyeswideshut – Erdo actually said what he wants. Turkey is banned from military exports from Finland and Sweden and he said he doesn’t like it and both countries support the PKK and he doesn’t like that.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 16:13 utc | 75

What the people is renaming now Nazivision 2022 had a lot of nazi salutes full on display…apart from your usual Heil Hitler!…
https://twitter.com/andrei_kononov/status/1525846098522345473?cxt=HHwWgsC4xae88qwqAAAA
BTW, the mass shooter in a US super market was an Azovite, as we some guessed that these shock troops once liberated fro mAzovstal will be your next Galdio to terrorize populations in case they do not vote rightly.
Notice that the mass shooting came just after Rand Paul blocked the new package of aid for Ukraine…
Russia is making us a favor by erasing those thugs there our leites need to keep us shut up…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:19 utc | 77

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | May 15 2022 14:57 utc | 50
I also find the same accusations of concern trolling unwarranted. Nothing is gained by tossing them around, IMHO.

Posted by: Bloke from block 8 | May 15 2022 16:23 utc | 79

Laura Pausini changed her expression once known Ukraine had won…She could not avoid having a heart shock, as every kindhearted well meaning European….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:23 utc | 81

From Sputnik:
The inhabitants of Popasna were not released from the basements by mercenaries speaking Polish. Foreigners did not let the population out even for water. APU tanks were placed next to residential buildings.

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 16:25 utc | 83

So this Eurovision thing is coming to Russia next year. Well, that’s a nice gesture.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 15 2022 16:32 utc | 85

After the singer from Ukraine made a call to help the Nazi Azov battalion from the stage after finishing the performance, he left making a salute that in view of his support for Azov raises doubts that he was greeting the people of #Eurovision
https://twitter.com/i/status/1525739516677476355

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:38 utc | 87

Has anyone else heard reports that u.s. admiral eric olson was just taken into custody in azovstal?

Posted by: NJH | May 15 2022 16:39 utc | 89

From Simplicius 57
“It is my opinion that the US pulled out of Afghanistan in preparation for the main show that is now unfolding.”
This is entirely logical and may be correct, in that pulling out of Afghanistan sort of cleared the decks, militarily, for the US to do something elsewhere, but I don’t think this was a well thought out plan, a conspiracy at the highest levels – as in, lets crush Russian by drawing them into Ukraine against Nato to clear the European decks before we crush China. I mean, there may be people who think this way, at the highest levels, but it is equally likely this whole thing sort of stumbled into where we are, as in, Biden got out of Afghanistan because back then he had some balls and felt he had to to prosecute his social and covid agenda; and meanwhile there were these anti Russian zealots trying to get Ukraine into NATO and, yes, eventually topple Putin; and meanwhile there were even others foaming to go after China…..my sense here is that if it is a choice between a grand conspiracy or a colossal series of f**k ups the f**k ups win 99 percent of the time.
I do think Russia had anticipated a much faster Ukrainian collapse, or settlement point. Now it seems to be a race between exhausting Russia with a flood of new arms and the west turning against the whole war because of the bite of the sanctions and food riots. This is very dangerous, because this leads to both sides thinking seriously about some kind of first strike to stop all this…
Let’s see what and how Russia responds to Finland if they are brought into NATO…

Posted by: Boomheist | May 15 2022 16:46 utc | 91

The reality on Finland and Sweden. Both countries are small and pose no military threat to Russia any more than the Baltic states that are already members. And Sweden has been a de facto member all along anyway. It is a shame that Finland will spoil it’s relationship with Russia that it has had since Soviet times but that is about all it will do. This is nothing but pr for Nato. They are consolation prizes for losing Ukiestan….and it is lost…they know it. You have to understand what a blow this is to the US Empire. Ukraine was like their Israel in eastern Europe…an unsinkable battleship promoting US hegemony and undermining Russian security forevermore. It’s military capability has been systematically dismantled and no handful of antique weapons funneled there will reverse the situation. The Western policy clowns are delusional. They thought sanctions would destroy the Russian economy and Putin would be overthrown. They really believed that idiocy! But that hasn’t happened, and there is no sign that it will. They thought if they could manufacture the illusion that the Kiev regime was holding it’s own, they could buy time for there hoped for regime change. Total fail. They shot their wad on Snake Island. Now they must find some way to present the optics they didnt lose. It is no accident that the defense secretary calls right after that debacle…right after Victory Day.Calling for a cease fire means it isnt going the way the West wants but I know other issues were discussed…like how the US can save face when Russia gets everything they want.

Posted by: nook | May 15 2022 16:50 utc | 93

While some correspondents from well known mass media, like centenary Spanish La Vanguardia ( belonging to Counts of Godó and which had correspondent in the Nazi front during WWII, but curiously, and now understandably, not in the Soviet one…), try to whitewash Azov´s blatant nazism and state that Putin is exagerating the “initial” far-right stance of the group belonging to the Ucrainian National Guard, even decribing Ukraine right now as a much more democratic country than Russia…
https://twitter.com/newneoflash/status/1525579151033348096?cxt=HHwWgMCt4fWJ-asqAAAA
At the Azov base near Mariupol: Hitler and visiting cards of Western diplomats (from Canada of a colonel)
💀The Nazi group “Azov” is a regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine…in whose name the Ukrainian representatives at #Nazivision2022 last night made a call for their safe release from Azovstal to a third country….
https://twitter.com/Marushky7/status/1525590814788812806?cxt=HHwWjICwweuw_qsqAAAA

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 15 2022 16:59 utc | 95

Regime change could well be in the air.
Posted by: Iain | May 15 2022 14:21 utc | 42
Tangential note: Turns out EU Council’s TFEU mouthpiece, vdL, opened a new front in Putin’s war. Her full court press to “reform” the TEU in order only to “enlarge” EU umm jurisdiction, if not “full” membership, to “strategic” NATO beachheads has provoked opposition from an unusual set of bedfellows. A strongly worded letter purportedly has been posted in advance of and circulated during the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE).
A third of EU countries oppose changing bloc’s treaties

“We do not support unconsidered and premature attempts to launch a process towards treaty change,” said the text signed by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovenia and Sweden.
[…]
It was distributed on the day that the European Parliament in Strasbourg hosted a closing ceremony for the Conference on the Future of Europe, a consultation of hundreds of EU citizens on ways the bloc could respond better to public expectations. The consultation resulted in 49 proposals containing more than 300 recommendations essentially calling for the EU to become more of federal superstate with more powers and streamlined decision-making.

I note with interest, I have as yet been able to locate a facsimile of this letter in public domain. Also, congradulations to all who ever were offended by “politicization” of The Union and the inevitable conclusion to the story. ha. ha. of The Single Market: from Articles of Confederation to “United States of Europe” in under 100 years.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 15 2022 17:01 utc | 97

@DutchZ – except it was the Ukrainians under US or UK supervision who shot it down. The Buk or whatever the name was had a number inscribed on it and it was photographed close to Poland border in Feb this year when they were moving weapons, preparing for Russia. The photo circulated a lot on telegram at that time.
@Boomheist – they also left the weapons for future terrorist attacks and regime changes like the one prevented in Kazahstan. They didn’t even destroy them before leaving, an $80bn gift. They are doing the same thing in Ukraine with all those manpads sent there. North Atlantic Terrorist Organization

Posted by: rk | May 15 2022 17:06 utc | 99