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May 13, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-64

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other stuff is here.

Posted by b on May 13, 2022 at 17:33 UTC | Permalink

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I regard Doctorow as an unreliable source. Prior to the war, he was babbling a ton of bullshit over at Antiwar.com which I had to call him on it repeatedly.

And he takes information from a taxi driver who says he has "contacts"? Seriously? I call total bullshit on his whole article.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:04 utc | 28

I regard any opinion of Richard S. Hack, as a "Hack" of the truth. Go Figure.

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2022 23:05 utc | 101

Ryber prediction of a Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region... Note the use of those US 155mm howitzers. As an aside, I saw a report of one of those already captured by the LDR.

The situation in the Kharkiv region by 23.00 on May 13, 2022

Active preparations are underway for a strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Kazachey Lopan and Strelechya in order to reach the Russian border. According to some reports, the Ukrainian command planned an offensive for tomorrow.

Against the backdrop of information about the upcoming offensive, Viktor Andrusiv, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, promised to start shelling Belgorod. The statement was made deliberately in order to cause panic among the population of the Russian region.

Artillery is working from Zolochev on the positions of the RF Armed Forces in Kazachya Lopan, including only the delivered 155-mm M777 howitzers.

Fighting continues in the vicinity of the Nursery. The settlement is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Mi-8 helicopters provide air support from the Korotich airfield.

For the planned offensive in Kharkov, reserve units are being assembled, mainly from the territorial defense. [MY NOTE: These are the "crap" Ukraine forces.]

High resolution map (https://i.ibb.co/LnNdMWN/13-05-23-00.jpg)

#map #Ukraine #Kharkiv
@rybar

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:07 utc | 102

From:
https://greatwarchannel.medium.com/%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0-922630a9ab71

regarding the satellite photos of all the equipment on both banks of the pontoon bridge crossing of the Severski Donets...

A photo series with mountains of the beaten equipment near a crossing through the Seversky Donets caused the whole squall of discussions. The Ukrainian side celebrates another victory on twitter, мамкин OSINT laboriously considers fragments, among (about) the Russian observers the despondency reigns. Generally came to uncover darling флюгегехаймен and to get down to business.

For a start we will repeat elements:

1) The photo and short video without binding to date are a "fly in amber", we don't know what was to and what happened after the shooting moment.

2) We also don't know during what time there was what remained then on shooting.

3) Both parties use a similar set of military equipment. It is difficult to determine accessory of the concrete car by the available photos and video, and it is often impossible.

4) As we wrote in a grant for mamkiny OSINT of the analyst, the parties already managed to exchange several times the equipment that only confuses observers

5) At the Ukrainian side and partially western party of observers (which began to consider the burned equipment) by default powerful confirmation bias. And here some details they it is conscious or on ignorance ignore.

Having armed with this not sensational, but useful knowledge we will start studying materials.

We will thoroughly not be driven in each piece of equipment, but we will consider the most important.


Photo 1
On the Photo 1 we can already notice very strange things (тм), namely fragments of BMP-1 (1, 2 and 4) and the BQ of a tower still broken by detonation and too from BMP-1 (3 and 6)

One more curious exhibit is 5 which we defined how BTR-D.

BTR-D uses airborne forces of the Russian Federation, but the Ukrainian airmobile and ground forces have them and. Also armored personnel carriers of this type got to LDNR forces as trophies.

And here with BMP-1 it is more and more interesting. The Russian army doesn't use basic BMP-1 option any more. "Infidel" and BRM-1K, but also that uses BMP-1AM, and other car obviously small single towers of good old "kopek" differ in fighting office, and here.

BMP-1 is on arms of national militias of LPR and the DPR.

We go to the next slide.


Photo 2
What do we see on this photo? (C)

First, whole horde of BMP-1. Are unambiguously identified number 6, 7, 11, 12, 20, 21, 15, 16 and 19. About 12 it is possible to make out a turret. Nine pieces, plus three on the previous shot. Twelve "kopeks". Yes, number 6 is BMP-1, it is better visible on other shot.

Already it is impossible to tell about an accidental trophy which was "picked up" by the Russian troops.

Pearl of this shot is number 10 which with a high share of probability is that other as Ukrainian "bronemedichka" on the basis of MT-LB, namely MT-LB S delivered to AFU since 2015. According to open data of cars of this type at AFU about 70, not such a rarity.

The nine is obvious old "motolyga" which with a small turret.

Number 8, 13, 17, 18 and 14 are defined worse. Most likely it is cars of the MT-LB family, at number 13 even the small turret is guessed.

Next slide.


Photo 3
We continue calculation of BMP-1.

Number 23, 25, 27, 28, 29 and 30. Twelve "kopeks" plus six more, already eighteen! It is too much to be accident.

Bonus "motolyga", number 22 wormed way.

Further.


Photo 4
We continue to consider "kopeks" (the truth with us it is cheerful?)

Number 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 41. Already 25 counted!

And at numbers 41, 31 and 35 badges "O" are obviously visible that indicates belonging to allied forces, but doesn't explain why such badges aren't applied on all cars.

Number 36 is MT-LB and such feeling again that he threw a tower too.

Number 38 isn't clear.

Number 39 and 40 it is the T-72 tanks, perhaps B. Prich cars don't look damaged. However, it is not news. Both parties of the conflict have most of all pain and humiliations "light" armor of the Soviet development — the IFV, the armored personnel carrier, MT-LB and BRDM tests.


Photo 5
And from this place is more detailed.

Number 42 is KAMAZ 8х8 with a pontoon, it is difficult to mix his accessory.

Number 43 is similar to PTS, numbers from 44 to 47 are various elements of the pontoon and bridge park, and similar parks (for example PMP-60 is used also by Ukrainians), it is difficult to distinguish the unloaded links.

48 and 49 it is the BMK towing powerboats.

Well, data we gathered enough. Let's pass to conclusions.

1) On structure of the burned equipment we see presence of the Russian and Ukrainian armies and also forces of LPR or the DPR. To write down all heap in the Russian losses it won't turn out any more.

2) Apparently on a photo 5, a footpath there nayezzhenny, as it is clear. After explosion of bridges such convenient location of a crossing couldn't remain unaddressed both parties.

3) Thus, we approach the most probable version of what occurred on a crossing near Belogorovka. The place of a crossing was fallen in love to both parties. And, at first there otgrebl Ukrainians, but also the Russian (allied) forces suffered losses during a crossing.

4) "Mix" of the equipment and her state specify that the parties some time fought for a crossing (perhaps about a week) until it didn't pass to allied troops.

5) On same specifies the Ukrainian photos and videos made from a respectful distance. A crossing obviously not under control of the Ukrainian forces, differently us already. otherwise we would have already been inundated with materials with hopak on the bones and broken equipment. They have a known tendency to tick-current peremogs.

6) By the way, the bodies are not visible, which suggests that one of the parties had the opportunity to take them out.

7) Another curious detail. The General Staff of Ukraine said that on the evening of May 11, "The enemy is trying to seize positions on the right bank," and by the next morning, "the raven had crossed the rіchku Sіversky Donetsk for an offensive."

Later there were reports that Russian troops not only did not retreat from the area, but also expand the bridgehead. It is difficult to say how true this is now, but on May 11, judging by the published satellite images, the crossing of Seversky Donets stood."

No doubt the crossing was fought over, and there were losses, but the Russians prevailed, and now are exploiting their achievement.

War is HELL...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2022 23:13 utc | 103

Posted by: K | May 13 2022 23:05 utc | 98
"What's the difference RSH? I thought the message was more important to you than the background or integrity of the messenger?"

Sigh... How many times do I have to say that I do not rely on Lira for anything other than his impression of things and the occasional comment which comes from his actually being on site in Kharkiv (which is fairly rare at that)?

He basically regurgitates what other analysts such as Mercouris have already figured out from acknowledged public sources. He doesn't talk (usually) about the internals of the Russian government or decisions being made by the Russian government, nor does he do military analysis other than what he's gleaned from someone else.

And I also dismiss him when he does talk about what "Russia wants" since he has no more knowledge of that than anyone else outside the senior members of the Russian administration and the General Staff.

There's absolutely zero comparison. I dismiss the taxi driver for the same reason I dismiss Lira when it comes to actual alleged incidents. Lira talks about things in evidence - except when he doesn't - whereas this second-hand bullshit from Doctorow is without evidence entirely.

Fail.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:14 utc | 104

92, 93

Maybe the vigil around May 9 when things where supposed to happen caused a lapse in awareness on the 10th so that after the stress of maintaining watch took its toll on RUF and they were caught asleep.

Posted by: CarlD | May 13 2022 23:19 utc | 105

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2022 23:13 utc | 101

See Rybar's analysis above. And I couldn't care less about your opinion.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:19 utc | 106

@58 “man on the street” interview was invented by folklorist Alan Lomax, the day after Pearl Harbor, December 8, 1942, a couple of weeks before Nisker was born, not to diminish anyone else’s accomplishments. Lomax’s interviews can be heard at the library of Congress website.

Posted by: Harold | May 13 2022 23:24 utc | 107

Posted by: CarlD | May 13 2022 23:19 utc | 103

The impression I take from Rybar's analysis is that for some tactical or operational reason they left a bunch of gear on the bank overnight, it got spotted by a Ukraine drone and trashed.

Big deal. Shit happens. Ukraine still has a functioning military on the local or regional tactical level. Until it's destroyed, shit will continue to happen. But on the operational and strategic level, Ukraine is toast.

I swear, I think some people here just want Ukraine to win, despite the extreme improbability of that happening. And the rest want Russia to go nuclear yesterday and wipe out Washington. Juvenile. Such comments can't be taken seriously.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:25 utc | 108

Pepe Escobar's latest is now up on The Saker...

Empire of Bioweapon Lies
http://thesaker.is/empire-of-bioweapon-lies/

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:26 utc | 109

Report from https://t.me/milinfolive on the conditions of the Territorial forces...
https://t.me/milinfolive/83238

The Ukrainian media continue to report on the protests of relatives of the Ukrainian territorial defense fighters against their sending to the front line.

This time, close members of the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade from the Lviv region rebelled about sending their men to the front lines.

The authors of the appeal explain that at the time their relatives joined the ranks of the territorial defense, the law determined that the TRO forces were auxiliary to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and should perform tasks outside the areas of combat operations. But after Easter, they were sent to the east, to the front line, although the law that allows sending members of the defense to combat areas was adopted only on May 3.

Women note that volunteers of different ages and different professions signed up for the defense, but most did not serve in the army, and now, without proper training, they are sent into battle against tanks and artillery with machine guns, and that they are forced to confront the enemy, who hits from all types of heavy weapons. According to their information, which is not disclosed, it is already known about the dead and wounded.

"You need to have training, weapons, equipment. It is owned by the military on the 1-2 lines, and they were told to take battle against artillery, mortars, missiles ... because they stood at checkpoints, had military training for 3-4 days. And my husband arrived home from the checkpoint, said that they were on their way, that they would have lines 3-4. He said that he did not know how they got out of that position before the rocket flew in ... someone has a family, children, and there are young guys who don’t even know how to dig in,” one of the authors of the appeal told the journalist.

Nikolay Savelyev, a fighter of the Lvovskaya troop who is now on the front line, described the situation during one of the battles.

"We have been lying for the fourth hour, waiting for some kind of command. If evacuation or leaving is a mess, an anxious dream, you may be able to wash yourself, but if the command comes - FORWARD - this is almost one hundred percent death, because defeating armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles with automatic bursts is it's like trying to kill an elephant with a dagger.There is no chance, but then you can be called a hero... the Russian "Orlan" soars in the sky, this is the "Eye of Sauron", which methodically corrects the artillery fire on everything that moves. Therefore, we calmed down in the bushes and don't move," he says.

Savelyev says that the defense fighters have experience clearing premises and fighting small DRGs, but not direct battles with the Russian army.

In their appeal, the protesting women ask the Lviv administration to withdraw the battalions of the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade from the combat zone.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:33 utc | 110

I regard any opinion of Richard S. Hack, as a "Hack" of the truth.
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2022 23:05 utc | 99

Yesterday I got way off on a tangent, leading to a book called "Logicomix: An Epic Search for Truth" about Bertrand Russell's path through Mathematical Logic. I've got a love/hate relationship with this book. Almost everyone underestimates how awfully difficult a concept lies behind that little "t" word, so I appreciate the job the author's did on their basic mission: truth is hard to know. But OTOH, this book about truth contains lies, imho, about the lives of some mathematicians. What can you do?

Truth is dynamic, like Earth's atmosphere, ephemeral, like a passing scent. You can't hold it in your hand. That doesn't mean there's no hope of truthtelling, no difference between truth and lies. Your post hooks me with the affectionate pun on RSH's surname, because I've spent years in search of literature about truth, from Karl Popper to Denys the Areopagite... What could you call the falsification criterion of scientific statements, if not a hack of the truth? James Hanson invented a pocket-calculator technique for estimating a planet's radiation -- just a hack, but good enough for government work. What else do we have, besides hacks?

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 23:39 utc | 111

@Aleph_null (52)

The idea that taxi drivers are a valuable source of public opinion is an old trope, made infamous in 1990s, I think, when Tom Friedman, of all people, boasted about it. (But obviously, far older than that.) It's not something to be dismissed out of hand, but not something to be made too much of. It is a potentially useful information since it is one of few pieces of information not coming from an "official" source, in fact seemingly coming from an "everyman" who, by nature of the job, interacts with many and diverse people, and more importantly, one of easier "non-official" persons in a society that an outsider can talk to. But the problem is that an outsider on a brief visit can only talk to so many taxi drivers, who obviously are not a representative sample of a country and have no incentive to speak truthfully, especially to a foreigner. So it is "interesting" that one should run into a semi random person in a foreign land who seems to think X, which suggests at least some ppl in a country are willing to say X to a foreigner. But that is not much to extrapolate from.

Posted by: hk | May 13 2022 23:39 utc | 112

@ line islands | May 13 2022 22:34 utc | 85 Re:

"Eventually a demonstration test of an extremely large hydrogen bomb in the far north of Russia may become wise, with plenty of notice to the world, and lots of camera angles, so people are shocked into their senses."

How could that be wise? People are already well aware of the power of an H-bomb, they have been tested before and why would the RF waste a perfectly good bomb on contaminating its own territory? It wouldn't even demonstrate the willingness of the RF to use a nuclear weapon on a NATO target, it would only support the narrative that Putin is demented.

Posted by: MarkU | May 13 2022 23:49 utc | 113

"The Patriarch cannot transform himself into Putin’s altar boy." -- Pope Francis

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2022 21:30 utc | 61
____

Hmmm, safer be an altar boy in the Russian Orthodox Church than the Roman Catholic Church.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | May 14 2022 0:03 utc | 114

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:07 utc | 100

Richard, even though I shudder at your reports, I thank you for making them. Not because I need to know what is going on; I don't.

But somewhere out there is someone who loves someone in the ranks of the soldiers like those women not sufficiently trained with weapons they cannot rely on - war is hell but it doesn't have to be THIS hell, worse than Dante's ninth level!

A war consciously being fiendishly (I use the term deliberately) orchestrated by politicians only interested in saving their own skin. And that someone who loves someone might have a chance to stop this carnage for that loved individual, after reading what you report.

Thank you.

Posted by: juliania | May 14 2022 0:05 utc | 115

@ hk | May 13 2022 23:39 utc | 109


You seem to be assuming that Gilbert Doctorow is a gullible fucking idiot and that the value of a persons worth as a source of information can be established purely from their current occupation. What do you do for a living exactly? (the same question could be asked of anyone who posts here) I would tend to assume that there is a valid reason that Gilbert Doctorow values the information coming from said taxi driver, presumably because previous information and/or predictions have turned out to be correct.

Posted by: MarkU | May 14 2022 0:09 utc | 116

Latest Russian MoD briefing... Relatively slow day...

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed the headquarters of the territorial defence and battalion of the 24th Mechanized Brigade near Zolotoe and Vrubovka, Lugansk People's Republic.

In addition, 32 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration and 1 ammunition depot near Krasnopavlovka, Kharkov Region, have been hit.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 300 nationalists and up to 37 armoured and motor vehicles.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 3 AFU command posts, as well as 52 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 17 command posts, as well as 370 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration and 5 artillery units at firing positions.

Russian air defence means have shot down 3 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Krasnopolie, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Kharkov Region, and Gorlovka, Donetsk People's Republic.

In total, 165 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 845 unmanned aerial vehicles, 304 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,039 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 369 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,498 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,882 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 0:09 utc | 117

Petri Krohn #32

Thank you for the link to https://greatwarchannel.medium.com

That was a refreshing calm assessment which is hard to find in the fog.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 0:10 utc | 118

Posted by: hk | May 13 2022 23:39 utc | 109

I'd listen to a taxi driver who told me "you don't wanna go into that neighborhood." That's local information he would know. But a taxi driver who tells me "I know a guy in the Pentagon who says they used nukes in Iraq", well... I don't think so.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 0:12 utc | 119

Once again, go look at Martyanov's video from Monday (or Sunday, I forget which) called "Surprise, Not!" Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 21:52 utc | 69

I did watch it when you linked it the first time in response to my comment on Putin’s May 9th speech.

Why didn't you include @48 Peter in your rant?

Regarding the two-pronged 15,000-men counter-offensive and diversionary attack inside Russia the Ukies are planning, I suspect this military strategy is coming straight out of the Pentagon. The calculation is to frontline massive forces and fire-power while simultaneously launching attacks inside Russia. I heard a retired General on the CIA's media outlet, CNN, suggest that the Ukies escalating attacks inside Russia would be a smart move as it would draw Russian forces in that direction away from the frontlines.

This is a made in the U.S.A. scheme to throw Russia’s military plan into chaos and I hope the Russian Command is ready for it on all cylinders.

Posted by: Circe | May 14 2022 0:16 utc | 120

A very interesting map of Russian cellphone subscribers around Ukraine:

https://t.me/rossia_3/6520

Looks like a huge concentration of Russian military aimed at Kharkov that has not engaged yet.

I think the Russians have a flexible plan based on phase lines not timelines. The second phase doesn't really begin until Azov has been completely cleared from Azovstal, so that the crack units involved there can participate in the offensive. 2 or 3 days after azovstal falls the big offensive will begin.

Looks like the main axis is going to be Kharkov.

Posted by: Razumov | May 14 2022 0:16 utc | 121

Come on, it's just a light article, the guy probably had nothing better to write, or tired.

Methinks y'all are trying to read too much into it.

Posted by: Arganthonios | May 14 2022 0:19 utc | 122

They are vaguely different forms of bullshit but that is about all. So what was your point?
Posted by: MarkU | May 13 2022 22:16 utc | 79

Well, yeah, there's no difference in the sense that neither statement is truthful, but both animate invidious connotations of "just war" opposed to "axis of evil", rather than cynicism. I guess, I shouldn't be surprised to find this find this cheap formula buried, like a repressed memory, in vdL's screed inciting war; she survived a bit of a plagiary scandal didn't she? But there it is: Ukraine symbolizes Israel, personified by Zelesk* himself, "a jewish president". The difference is, Nazi Germany symbolizes Iran, in the present epic struggle to fulfill the one, true covenant ordained by GOTT.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 14 2022 0:24 utc | 123

The world seems to have reached an impasse, and is waiting for something "telling" to happen. Can't help but wonder; Does Russia really understand the importance of this ongoing pushback against uni-polar dominance? Or, are those of us hoping for a shift to a multi-polar globe, just being unrealistic? As I've said before, the world's bully needs a "black-eye" to be administered. It remains to be seen, how that will happen. And, if that happening affects me adversely, so be it.

Posted by: vetinLA | May 14 2022 0:25 utc | 124

Posted by: MarkU | May 14 2022 0:09 utc | 113
"You seem to be assuming that Gilbert Doctorow is a gullible fucking idiot"

If the shoe fits...

"and that the value of a persons worth as a source of information can be established purely from their current occupation."

See my #116.

"What do you do for a living exactly? (the same question could be asked of anyone who posts here)"

And that would be relevant to the internals of the Russian government, how?

"I would tend to assume that there is a valid reason that Gilbert Doctorow values the information coming from said taxi driver, presumably because previous information and/or predictions have turned out to be correct."

This is his level of trust:

"He maintains contact with former pals in the service and so I take his story with a high degree of trust."

He believes the guy is ex-intelligence, then he believes the guy has active duty contacts in the service on a level to know what's what, and then be believes those guys who he has no clue who they are or what their agenda is or where they got their information.

So it's not just second-hand information, it's not even third-hand information.

And then he assumes Putin might be influenced by this.

I'd say that makes Doctorow a gullible fucking idiot, at least as far as this article goes.

As I said before, Doctorow has a tendency to throw out stuff like this without any evidence or logic behind it. I view him as a lightweight when it comes to analysis. Occasionally he's right and I credit him when he is. But he's just as often wrong in my opinion. YMMV.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 0:25 utc | 125

Posted by: Arganthonios | May 14 2022 0:19 utc | 119

I agree. As I said, Doctorow throws this sort of stuff out occasionally.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 0:26 utc | 126

People die in wars. That’s why we shouldn’t have them. They die on both sides. The US does a good job of hiding that its forces suffer serious setbacks and die on the battlefield. Lots of things went wrong for the US in Iraq 2003, against a competent force but certainly inferior to Ukraine (especially with unlimited western assistance). It was hardly the rousing success it was portrayed at the time or in memory. They cut off press access at one point because there were too many dead American boys. People wondered if the British could ever take Basra. Kurds turned out to be unreliable allies in the north.

Russia will lose battles. It will be forced into tactical retreats. It’s not going to go shock and awe, and you’ll know things are going badly in the big picture it russia does.

Nobody’s fought a war like this since the 1950’s. It has the complications of a civil war. And a whole bunch of new technologies and methods are being applied. It’s unlikely Russia doesn’t achieve its stated goal and likely in less than 6 months. (Liberate friendly oblasts and demilitarize Ukraine) When this is over, one military in the world will have real world experience in modern warfare. Enlisted troops through the general staff. The rest of the world’s militaries will have watched and learned something but they won’t have real world experience in any quantity.

Posted by: Lex | May 14 2022 0:26 utc | 127

just a light article
Posted by: Arganthonios | May 14 2022 0:19 utc | 119

...treating whimsical notions such as a nuclear first strike! I'm pretty much exactly on the fence about this Doctorow person, after his last. I'm still making up my mind whether Doctorow should be praised or denounced for passing on taxi gossip like this.

Any writer faces the challenge of evaluating how their words will be taken -- your own filter might preserve credibility, but it also might obscure interesting tidbits. I'm very grateful for all the careful thought about Doctorow in here. My own tentative conclusion: I'll keep reading him, but maybe with a few big pink grains of Siberian salt.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 14 2022 0:32 utc | 128

@RSH (116)

No one should expect a random everyman to "know" what's "really" going on any topic of a large enough scope. But it is a window into what "regular people" in a country are thinking about such topics without anything "official" getting in the way. In most countries, citizens are distrusting of official pronouncements to varying degrees, yet, at the same time, they are also patriotic, when they feel that their country, way of life, and their kin are being threatened by outside forces. You'd want to know how people are handling these opposing impulses in order to make sense of the deeper public sentiment in a country and talking to regular people is a good way to start, although with a lot of caveats. As noted before, taxi drivers are about the only people that outsiders can talk easily to during a short stay and are an extremely limited source of information. But they are a window without the official narrative getting in the way, nevertheless, however limited it is.

Posted by: hk | May 14 2022 0:34 utc | 129

This all reminds me of the permanent state of war in 1984 where no state wishes to win, with the only purpose of the 'war' is to justify extraordinary powers over the people.

Does this look like a war where Russia is trying? It looks like they are holding a lot back.

Posted by: Daniel | May 14 2022 0:35 utc | 130

Russia must turn Odesa into next Mariupol as soon as possible. That's the best way to neutralize Ukraine. With Snake Island firmly in Russian hands destruction of Nazis in Odesa will seal Ukraine's fate.

Posted by: Jason | May 14 2022 0:37 utc | 131

Posted by: Circe | May 14 2022 0:16 utc | 117
"Why didn't you include @48 Peter in your rant?"

He merely stated what appears to be true: that the Russian/LDR forces got hit. You got upset over it. There's no need to get upset.

"Regarding the two-pronged 15,000-men counter-offensive and diversionary attack inside Russia the Ukies are planning"

It's not clear to me that the 15,000 are going to go inside Russia. They're simply near the border AFAIK. The Ukie official just made a threat to the Belgorod area. Not certain they are going to try to attack inside Russia. Of course, anything is possible.

"I suspect this military strategy is coming straight out of the Pentagon. The calculation is to frontline massive forces and fire-power while simultaneously launching attacks inside Russia."

Yes, I assume that is the case and has been all along since the first helicopter attacks.

"it would draw Russian forces in that direction away from the frontlines."

Which means he's an idiot because there are more Russian forces inside Russia than there is in Ukraine. So why would they divert forces inside Ukraine as opposed to just beefing up the border? Of course, those idiots probably do think that, which is one reason they're losing the war. Martyanov always makes the point that the US considers itself "the best army in the world" despite having lost every conflict since WWII - and wouldn't have won that one without Russia.

"This is a made in the U.S.A. scheme to throw Russia’s military plan into chaos and I hope the Russian Command is ready for it on all cylinders."

They are. Which is why I referred you to Martyanov's video. If you need to, view it again. I know his rambling style is hard to follow but he does make his points. The main point is that this has all been totally planned by the Russian General Staff - and if you look at the massive humanitarian assistance Russia has been providing inside Ukraine and inside Russia for Ukrainian refugees and Ukrainian POWs, that certainly makes that clear - and given the military balance there is no chance that a minor tactical issue is going to derail this operation in any way, shape or form.

Which is why getting excited over an incident of this sort is not justified.

Unless, of course, you're in the unit that got hit. If I was there, I'd be screaming bloody murder at who screwed up by leaving a bunch of vehicles exposed. But at the next higher command level or the one above that, they be like: "{Shrug) OK, that didn't work, what's next?" as Martyanov said in that video.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 0:41 utc | 132

a flexible plan based on phase lines not timelines. The second phase ...
Posted by: Razumov | May 14 2022 0:16 utc | 118

appears to be materializing, featuring a "model minority" technocrat.
Ukraine War Day #77: Never Too Early To Think About Rebuilding

Posted by: sln2002 | May 14 2022 0:46 utc | 133

Posted by: hk | May 14 2022 0:34 utc | 126

I agree that if Doctorow was simply trying to get a sense of the mood of the Russian people, then talking to a taxi driver is fine.

I got the impression from that article that he was taking the business about Russian officials urging Putin to go nuclear seriously based on this one conversation, and also the business about the initial days of the operation being a "disaster" - for which we have zero external evidence and Doctorow should know that.

Personally I go with the Russian polls that show the bulk of the Russian people are behind Putin. I also go with what Mercouris says about Russian media channels supporting the operation and further, that even people he knows in Russia who are pro-Western are lining up behind the operation. I view that sort of information as more reliable than one cab driver conversation (even two).

So I can't give Doctorow any credit on this one. YMMV.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 0:50 utc | 134

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:04 utc | 28

"I regard Doctorow as an unreliable source."

lol yeah that was an absolutely ridiculous article. How embarrassing to be the guy who stoops to writing obvious BS like that. Even neocon shill Thomas Friedman could make his dorky taxi driver stories sound more believable.

Posted by: darrren price | May 14 2022 0:55 utc | 135

@ 16 dejan video conclusion - shit happens... ukraine is still losing, no matter how you interpret the data off the pontoon crossing affair...

@ uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 0:10 utc | 115... thanks for drawing my attention to @ 32 Petri Krohn link.... i agree with you.. thanks petri...

i would like to quote this russians sites conclusion from the article "New "stupid ford". Who was defeated at the crossing over the Seversky Donets?" others can do a full translation if they are interested

"Well, we have collected enough data. Let's move on to conclusions.

1) According to the composition of the burned equipment, we see the presence of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, as well as the forces of the LPR or DPR. It will no longer be possible to write down the whole bunch in Russian losses.

2) As you can see from photo 5, the path is well-trodden there, which is understandable. After the explosion of the bridges, such a convenient crossing point could not be ignored by both sides.

3) Thus, we are approaching the most probable version of what happened at the crossing near Belogorovka. The place of crossing was liked by both sides. And, at first, the Ukrainians raked there, but the Russian (allied) forces also suffered losses during the crossing.

4) The “mix” of equipment and its condition indicate that the parties fought for the crossing for some time (perhaps about a week) until it passed into the hands of the allied forces.

5) This is also indicated by Ukrainian photos and videos taken from a respectful distance. The crossing is clearly not under the control of the Ukrainian forces, otherwise we would have been flooded with materials with hopak on the bones and broken equipment. They have a known tendency to tik-tok wins.

6) By the way, the bodies are not visible, which indicates that one of the parties had the opportunity to take them out.

7) Another curious detail. The General Staff of Ukraine stated that on the evening of May 11, “The enemy is trying to seize positions on the right bank,” and by the next morning, “the enemy had crossed the river Siversky Donets for an offensive.”

Later there were reports that the Russian troops not only did not retreat from the area, but also expand the bridgehead. It is difficult to say how true this is now, but on May 11, judging by the published satellite images, the crossing over the Seversky Donets stopped.

So the peremoga somehow immediately ceases to bloom and smell, and begins to smell like something else."

@ richard... thanks for your posts..

Posted by: james | May 14 2022 0:57 utc | 136

"So, an increasingly Totalitarian West led by the Outlaw US Empire is overtly allied with its Terrorist Foreign Legion, by arming it and providing media and political support. I'd be very surprised if the Russian Security Council hasn't come to a similar conclusion.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2022 21:19 utc | 56
____

I too think it's clear Russia concluded this many years ago. The Nazis the US is exploiting now as Ukraine’s "freedom fighters" are much like the "moderate" terrorists US-Israel hired to oust Assad in Syria, including al-Qaeda (arch-nemesis to ally), al-Nusra ISIS, etc. In that case, Russia deftly used US propanda efforts to hide behind these "rogue" terrorists to enter the fray at Assad's invitation and fight the very forces that US and Israel (CIA/Mossad) funded and supported. What a burn! No wonder they hate Putin; he runs circles around their Machiavellian machinations.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | May 14 2022 1:04 utc | 137

Helmer's site has an interesting article, translated from a Russian newspaper (for those who don't think that newspaper reading is demeaning) on the current state of the grain market. It has several useful maps too.
The War Against Food by Nikolai Storozhenko
"..The first Washington-Kiev war plan for eastern Ukraine has already lost about 40% of the Ukrainian wheat fields, 50% of the barley, and all of the grain export ports. Their second war plan to hold the western region defence lines with mobile armour, tanks, and artillery now risks the loss of the corn and rapeseed crop as well as the export route for trucks to Romania and Moldova. What will be saved in western Ukraine will be unable to grow enough to feed its own people. They will be forced to import US wheat, as well as US guns and the money to pay for both..."
http://johnhelmer.net/

Posted by: bevin | May 14 2022 1:08 utc | 138

"Personally I go with the Russian polls that show the bulk of the Russian people are behind Putin. I also go with what Mercouris says about Russian media channels supporting the operation and further, that even people he knows in Russia who are pro-Western are lining up behind the operation."
Richard Steven Hack@131
But that is exactly the position that Doctorow takes.
In this article he does mention another taxi driver who, trying to ingratiate himself with a foreigner, said he opposed the war. But Doctorow is one of the foremost western observers insisting that the operation is generally supported among the general public.
I wonder how many of those piling on the guy for doing what every writer in his position does, if he speaks the language well enough, have actually read the article?
Perhaps they prefer the reports of other American journalists in Russia. If so please share them.

Posted by: bevin | May 14 2022 1:25 utc | 139

c1ue #97


Last I checked, Ukraine is fighting this conflict all out.
It shouldn't be too surprising that they are contesting Russian/LDPR/Chechen military activity.
If anything, the "contesting" shows that Russia is, in fact, still on the offensive.
Mercouris noted that a British armored combat expert looked at the video and was of the opinion that most of the vehicles were not, in fact, combat destroyed but were demo'd to prevent capture and reuse and that Russian casualties were maybe 100, while Russian sources apparently are saying 50.
There is nothing about either of these numbers that would cause Russia or the overall momentum of the conflict to change.

Thank you. On the photographs and videos at various sites: I was surprised at the widespread craters in the stubble fields as if the place had been shelled randomly and consistently for weeks. Perhaps the Ukies were deterring spring planting of wheat etc.

I assume that this river xing hyperventilation is to whitewash the Uke debacle on snake island. Simply a ploy to dislodge an adverse headline with another lie about a 'victory'.

I see above there are reports of a Uke 15,000 troop counterattack and all the relevant supporting airports identified. I expect they will be obliterated and am MIGHTY surprised that they even exist after all this time. Perhaps that is BS too.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 1:26 utc | 140

Martyanov today on "trolls", "concern trolls", and Telegram channels... Well, some people may be "butthurt" (to use his favorite phrase) about this, but as he also always says "it is what it is." YMMV.

Statement For Ukie and Other Trolls. Read Attentively.

Judging by the activity of all kinds of Ukie IPSO and simply "patriotic", US-UK, NATO etc. trolls and FUD "masters" at this blog, including promoters of an open anti-Russian asset Girkin (aka Strelkov), let me explain something.

1. I do not have nor do I follow any Telegram channels for a simple reason--ANY, I underscore, ANY so called info in those TGs unless it is from official and accredited sources is a collection of a BS, most of which is either FUD ops or, otherwise, turbo-"patriotic" crap. It is also the main reason I do not follow all those Podolyakas, "Colonel" Cassads, Kotenoks, and other "analysts" whose level of reporting is this:

"I was in the first APC when we got hit with NLAW....", or "We take these POWs but we have got 2 200s in our unit.." etc. I respect deeply the combat work LDNR forces do and heroism of their guys but I do not bother myself with constant description of tactical and human minutiae of this war, because this is not what I do. I AM NOT interested in opinions of even heroic and very tactically literate soldiers. Even the best of them do not have background to have a competent opinion on the theater of operations scale-wise issues, let alone on geopolitics and strategy. This is not to denigrate those people, no, but unless one has a serious military-intel-academic background in this there is nothing to talk about. But even tactically, you saw yourself how yet another Ukie fake was debunked with this river-crossing BS. So, for trolls--I now will ban you without any warning and will continue to ban you.

2. Here is how professionals talk about war.

They talk about war correlates, attrition rates, mobilization, combat cohesion etc. They also do not get excited over some tactical episodes which create a lot of impression on housewives and househusbands, mama's basement "strategists" and the category of public like this. I try in this blog to bring most professional and competent opinions by people who DO understand and you know those people from Larry Johnson, Douglas Macgregor to Scott Ritter, Russian MoD, Russian military specialists etc. I do not take kindly to those who bring here such human waste as Girkin--those posts will be removed, unless they are for the purpose of making a case from such tools as Girkin, Bellingcat and other intel propaganda assets and poking well-deserved fun at them.

3. So, the general message here (I reiterate) is that I will be removing all kinds of "analyses" which are obviously fake or are nothing, which is the 99% of the cases, but a result of mass media echo-chamber, because REAL plans, REAL maps, REAL movements of troops, REAL data are known only to Russia's General Staff and nobody else. Us, former military and intel professionals, we merely try to give the operational and strategic framework--that requires a completely different set of skills which is required on the tactical level.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 1:35 utc | 141

@ Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 17:45 utc | 2
re.: confirm

That depends what you mean.
I didnt witness, but I saw roughly the same info on southfront which I have found to be balanced if pro-russian analysis.
Generally, you wont find such information mention of acknowledged or discussed in a rational manner on this site. Only self reinforcing or harmless commentary is allowed.
Even Mercouris, it pains himto discuss negative news though I find he is becoming more balance. Basically, assume everyone is lying and think for yourself.

Posted by: jared | May 14 2022 1:35 utc | 142

Posted by: bevin | May 14 2022 1:25 utc | 136

I read the article. He can ask anyone he likes for info. When he starts taking random comments about the progress of the SMO from a taxi driver seriously, he's an idiot. Period. End of story.

Read my immediate post above.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 1:37 utc | 143

hk #109

So it is "interesting" that one should run into a semi random person in a foreign land who seems to think X, which suggests at least some ppl in a country are willing to say X to a foreigner. But that is not much to extrapolate from.

Agreed. Taxi drivers sit in their cabin tuned in to msm or shock jocks mostly. I know of only one who plays his fave discs and ignores the msm. They are pounded and washed by msm lies for most of their shift. Occasionally they might find an interesting client - occasionally the client might be outspoken, then they return to their corrective msm.... Not a good source and not really worth the time. Doctorow pumped out an old space filler - 'I bumped into a taxi driver'. Not worth it imo.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 1:38 utc | 144

Posted by: jared | May 14 2022 1:35 utc | 139
"Generally, you wont find such information mention of acknowledged or discussed in a rational manner on this site. Only self reinforcing or harmless commentary is allowed."

Bullshit. We just spent half this thread on the subject, and I and others posted several analyses from various sources. In the end, no one but the Russian military (and possibly the Ukrainian military) knows what happened or why. The important thing is the meaning of what happened and as I pointed out that meaning is a minor tactical issue on a local front caused by no one knows what.

"Even Mercouris, it pains him to discuss negative news though I find he is becoming more balance."

Unlike the butthurt here being displayed by the concern trolls. Mercouris does very well reporting the military situation on the ground. I don't think he's always entirely accurate, but given that almost no one knows any different, I generally find him to be nuanced and careful in his assessments, emphasizing as he does that he is by no means a military expert. He gets his information from the same sources everyone else does, but he also gets input from people who do know military matters.

"Basically, assume everyone is lying and think for yourself."

Good advice - which I follow.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 1:46 utc | 145

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 21:53 utc | 70

I am sorry for the remark also, Aleph_Null. It was deeply offensive. I had hopes also that if not a cameraderie, there could be a rapprochment between the two men. A lot is being destroyed as we watch, but please have heart, popes are bishops, and bishops are fallible men, just like the rest of us. Pope Francis has just proved that, but so have many Orthodox bishops as well. I'm sure there are many in your flock who would not have done what he has just done.

Posted by: juliania | May 14 2022 1:49 utc | 146

sln2002 #130

From your link:

Approximately 400,000 people live in this city; in other words, it’s huge, by Ukrainian standards....

[the Ukies blew up the water mains]

Shesler again: “This [water pipe] is the single source of drinking water. Leaving people without water is tantamount to a humanitarian catastrophe.”

I will try to follow this story and see if there is some improvement. For the time being, file this under This is what happens when you appoint ideologues instead of technocrats, to administer your regions.

Thinking of Flint Michigan and the entire abandonment from local right through to the EPA and O'bummers appointee.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 1:50 utc | 147

RSH various

RSH states that the war has been planned in detail. Certainly so, but "the best laid plans of mice and men" get sidetracked by some insignificant detail and must be modified accordingly.

Things almost never go as planned. Numerous military undertakings have faltered after careful planning. The present campaign is no exception.

You will recall that numerous assumptions were made whereas the Ukes were going to throw some kind of wrench in the celebration gears and attacks were expected all around Ukraine and Russia for that matter on the 9th of May.

In general, when an event is feared and predicted, stress is generated and consciousness rises in expectation. Then, when the mountain gives birth to a mouse instead of the anticipated cataclysm, the body, individual or collective, relaxes and generates vulnerabilities.

Israel has taken advantage of this when it attacked the Egyptian air force upon touch down at day break from their uneventful night patrol.

My attention was drawn to the fact that the supposed Ukrainian "success" came right after the night of the Victory Parade Day. The time was well chosen by their command and had the desired effect.

So RUF lost some feathers in a skirmish. No big deal.

I firmly hope and believe Russia will triumph in the end.

However, considering the stakes, I fathom hostilities will last longer, engulf the whole world and lead to nuclear exchanges.

I hope I am mistaken.

To lose a battle is just that, a lost battle and no more.

Posted by: CarlD | May 14 2022 1:52 utc | 148

Anyways -- I simply don't share your aversion to unreliable rumors rising from men or women "on the street". Wouldn't you like to know whether other Russians, besides the driver who happened to pick up Doctorow, share such sentiments?
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 21:24 utc | 58

Hey...I'm all for acquiring an accurate gauge of public sentiment by sifting through the chatter, but I don't feel that one taxi driver in St. Petersburg does the trick. Let's hear from a few more taxi drivers, not to mention their fares and perhaps some people who don't take taxis.

Posted by: Activist Potato | May 14 2022 2:06 utc | 149

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 1:35 utc | 138

Personally, I cannot follow Martyanov's video. His accent and intonation mangle the language so much I can't handle more than about 2 minutes. I do read his text presentations. This one I missed and it's excellent.

Also because it makes me feel good about my own approach: I don't watch any of these battlefield videos or listen to accounts from the front. For the reasons he cites. They have no overview perspective. I honor their service (generally on both sides) but do not want to see a few dead bodies on a highway and think I have any idea what they signify either tactically or strategically. Rather not bother, thank you. For similar reasons don't read or follow MSM articles or broadcasts. Waste of time.

Where I DO perhaps waste time is this great blog. I get more from an hour going through comments with their various references and links than cruising myself.

And Marty also makes me feel good that I cannot get a Telegram account. I avoided it for a while but recently tried to get one but for unknown reasons they can never confirm my tel nr. (which I wish they didn't require for registration in any case). So no Telegram and it appears am not missing much. The good stuff ends up here anyway!!

Three Cheers to b!!

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 2:06 utc | 150

juliania @143 and previous posts about Pope Francis

I have read some days ago that the Pope said - paraphrasing - 'NATO was barking at the door of Kremlin' - was that indeed what he said?

Posted by: fanto | May 14 2022 2:10 utc | 151

Why would people give more weight to a Pope's remarks, before anyone else's? Seriously, do most people believe these clowns are more in tune with God ( or whatever), than they are? Could humanity please grow up?

Posted by: vetinLA | May 14 2022 2:27 utc | 152

Dr. George W Oprisko #101

INDY

Thank you for that link to a good site. There is much to explore in there and I look forward to that as a daily goto.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 2:42 utc | 153

Scorpion #147

Three Cheers to b!!

Absolutley! thank you b

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 14 2022 2:44 utc | 154

"Why would people give more weight to a Pope's remarks, before anyone else's?"

He be de Pope, man. Ya gotta get down and kiss the ring, man.

I have this project called 'simple hedge voting', and all the 'experts' in their echo chamber hate me because of it.

One giant echo chamber is the Interagency narrative of "Russia be bad, Russia be bad, Russia be bad". Really once the toads start honking it never stops.

Posted by: blues | May 14 2022 2:45 utc | 155

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz4IkzM217U

A fake election advertisment where they tell the truth. Incredibly accurate picture of the recent history and current situation in Australia. With humour.

I am finding that 'comedians' doing 'fake' news are about the only journalists left.

Posted by: Rae | May 14 2022 2:47 utc | 156

@129 RSH

Peter didn't merely state Russian forces got hit; he stated they got hammered at the pontoon bridge site. Big difference. So why single me out in that nasty tone? Never mind.

Also, I believe the excerpt you quoted @ 95 stated the 15,000 Ukie forces with U.S. fire-power are mobilizing from the Nikolayev area to frontlines in Ukraine West of the Donets, not to the Russian border. I thought the Russians retreated from Kharkiv and blew bridges along the way. The attacks inside Russia will be staged by other Ukie forces, probably the ones that were fighting around Kharkiv which you stated in brackets are crap, while the main thrust by massed Ukie forces with U.S. weaponry will be staged West of the Donets River. I'm speculating, but this looks like the likely scenario, since that's the area Russian forces are trying to cross the river to take. I looked up those towns in your post @95 i.e. Vysokole and Knyazevka and can't find them on any map.

I'm not so much upset as questioning how the pontoon bridge ambush and the hit on 13 Russian vessels since the start of SMO happened and what should have been done to prevent such losses.

▪︎▪︎▪︎▪︎

Clearly, the Pope's no longer Catholic; he's now NATO and has proven to be what many feared when he was elevated: He'd become a mere pawn, which he now proves he has. Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2022 21:30 utc | 61

I wrote a comment weeks ago that never posted, not sure why, wherein I tore into the proposed idea of getting the Pope to visit Ukraine. I felt if he accepted the invite, it would be incongruent with his supposed role as peacemaker to remove all ambiguity and display affinity with one side, allowing himself to be used as a pawn for U.S. hegemony and NATO expansion.

Later, I wrote another comment which posted, wherein I stated that Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill should make up and embrace, because they're really soulmates on the same stairway to heaven.

The house boy rings the Tuvan -

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2022 21:46 utc | 66


Please don't refer to him as the house boy. I know he's a MIC/NATO tool, but he deserves a modicum of respect; we’re better than that.
From now on Pope Frank, for me, is:
NATO's altar boy.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 22:38 utc | 87

LOL! You're reverse zinger is priceless. However, the Pope is proving he's diplomatically clumsy and not infallible, so let's give him another chance to get it right.

Posted by: Circe | May 14 2022 2:48 utc | 157

There's absolutely zero comparison. I dismiss the taxi driver for the same reason I dismiss Lira when it comes to actual alleged incidents. Lira talks about things in evidence - except when he doesn't - whereas this second-hand bullshit from Doctorow is without evidence entirely.

Bullshit. We just spent half this thread on the subject, and I and others posted several analyses from various sources. In the end, no one but the Russian military (and possibly the Ukrainian military) knows what happened or why.

I know one thing, and one thing only.... "Richard Stevens Hack" is not this poster's real name...

AND.....

The only true word posted by him is the pseudonym he adopts.... "HACK"

For....

A HACKney is he.... Note that he only gives credence to MI6/CIA/NSA sources..

Just who(m) is HACK???? Did you know that HACK rimes with CRAP??? FLAK??? WRAK??? Is HACK... more correctly spelled KCAH??? Ie: UAH intelligence???

AND....

Where are his expousals of the torturous routes USD$40billion will take from USTREAS to HACK's back pocket????

BECAUSE....

HACK the FLACK is a TROLL working for MI6/CIA/NSA/MOSSAD...

INDY

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 14 2022 2:52 utc | 158

I'm exhausted correction @154: Your reverse zinger...

Done and out!

Posted by: Circe | May 14 2022 2:56 utc | 159

If, in fact, the Pope's quote was right,('NATO is barking at Russia's door.") he got it straight.

Maybe he's more perceptive than infallible. OK fine...

Posted by: vetinLA | May 14 2022 3:05 utc | 160

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 2:06 utc | 147
"Personally, I cannot follow Martyanov's video. His accent and intonation mangle the language so much I can't handle more than about 2 minutes."

He is an acquired taste. After you view a few of them, you pick up on his patterns of speech (or perhaps non-patterns of speech might be a better term.) :-)

"I don't watch any of these battlefield videos or listen to accounts from the front. For the reasons he cites. They have no overview perspective."

I agree. When I go through my Telegram channels, I skim down the list looking for significant amounts of text that might contain something important, then I translate it. The videos I mostly ignore unless they show something that might be interesting, say, a significant strike on a city or something. I've mentioned before that seeing another video of a Russian jet or a helicopter flying around somewhere is utterly boring and useless.

"For similar reasons don't read or follow MSM articles or broadcasts. Waste of time."

Yup.

"I get more from an hour going through comments with their various references and links than cruising myself."

Yup.

"The good stuff ends up here anyway!!"

Yup. That's why I go through the Telegram channels - to find something that at least offers some info to post here so everyone who doesn't have a Telegram account can see it.

"Three Cheers to b!!"

Yup.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 3:15 utc | 161

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:14 utc | 102

About Lira: sometimes he comes up with some interesting takes, like one recently where he pontificated about winning through boredom (from MSM perspective).

But the big story about Lira has to do with who is he exactly, why does he stay there after getting his family out even though he has no first-hand knowledge of anything, and how come he didn't get his body parts sliced by Ukraine heavies and, and, and....

And when I see questions like this piling I 'know' (without knowing anything at all) the answer:

Intelligence.

Who is running Ukraine and Nazis? CIA.
Who is running CIA? (That's above my pay-grade so ignore question!)
So what value are Lira's anti-Ukraine, anti-MSM, anti-CIA-approved messaging?
Obviously, various alternative media sites (correction: ALL alternative media sites including this one) are monitored. Not so much perhaps to track individual contributors (though no doubt that happens when warranted in their opinion) but to track tendencies, demographics etc.

That's why Elon is going for TWTR. They went too far to one side (to help win an election) but now want the 'right' back so that they can return to monitoring public opinion (the prime function of TWTR I suspect which, like GOOG and FB are clearly surveillance companies first, i.e. Intelligence operations masquerading as private corporations in the current neo-democratic regimes which are soft fascist (fascism being defined as union of State and Corporate powers) post republic regimes.

So woke is now being rolled back to bring both sides into the same arenas so they can more easily be monitored and measured.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

And of course we must always remember: 50% of the current war in Ukraine is being played out - in the minds of those instigating and waging it at least - as statistics on spreadsheets monitoring public opinion in western 'democracies.' How far can they go how soon until the new techno-fascist reset is entirely put in place.

WHO has a move this week.
Soon come internationally fungible central bank issues digital currencies which will require digital ID's.
One small step for....

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 3:23 utc | 162

Soon come internationally fungible central bank issues digital currencies which will require digital ID's.
shld read:
Soon come internationally fungible central bank issued digital currencies which will require digital ID's.

(I swear, some bot somewhere is messing with my spelling.
Or maybe it's the barfly effect (even though stone cold sober).
Or maybe my Russian-designed (?) Lenovo keyboard is messin' with me?!)

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 3:26 utc | 163

Entire previous post missed. Was about Lira. Oh well. Suffice to say he raises many questions about why and how he is there.
Short answer: clearly he is Intelligence asset on the ground which means although he is broadcasting alternative stuff he is perhaps gathering info on anti-CIA/US/Ukie interests. Or some such. Doesn't really matter. He has no first-hand tactical experience. He does have original insights sometimes but no different from people on this board. Again:

Intelligence.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 3:30 utc | 164

Re Lira PS:
Also, based on photos on his latest Youtube videos (surprisingly not banned.... we wonders, aye, we wonders, Precious!) he is getting giddy.

Hmmm

Did some of that 40 billion make it to his account somewhere in same bank as Z?

Enquiring minds.....

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 3:34 utc | 165

Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 3:30 utc | 160
Posted by: Scorpion | May 14 2022 3:34 utc | 161

Still waiting for evidence that Lira is anything more than a hustler latching on to the current big thing. Look at his bio. He does whatever whenever. But he's not stupid and he's quite verbally adept. Whatever his situation is it's irrelevant to whatever he's talking about. And what he's talking about is exactly the same as everyone else is talking about - and it's all counter to the propaganda the West dredges up. So trying to prove he's some kind of CIA plant is absurd.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 4:24 utc | 166

If the MSM runs it (and they do) then it is unlikely to be true as presented.

Partially true possibly, but only possibly and that part can be incredibly small.

So whatever happened is on its own rather unimportant despite how callous it is to say so.

But the overall narrative and the stage it sets can still be important. Yes this is another Snake Island, and it sets the stage for further narrative developments and in particular the one I worry about which is the opportunity for a nuclear false flag where the US etc. think they'll get away with stories of a "desperate Russia" taking extreme measures.

It is pretty much public knowledge that there are plenty of systems in this world continually sensing for nuclear detonations as well as other things. If you doubt it then ask yourself why then are the weapons continually armed and ready to go? Been that way for more than half a century. You don't and can't have all that many humans in the loop when you're limited to minutes.

Even further than that at the present moment the Russian nuclear forces are operating in what is essentially "war mode" ie. the highest level of activity possible up until they launch and try to survive.

This has been reported to the public, it is not secret. It has been this way for weeks now.

A single detonation (and especially one relatively close to Russia and in an area that would have been covered by USSR systems) is one too many and tempting a fate too stupid to risk. Some people on both sides still seem to know but maybe too few on the US one and boy did they take their sweet time speaking up. Not convinced they're getting through to their "leaders".

The US must deescalate and withdraw. The Russians have not been and are not being unreasonable, it is "we" who are. "Our" words are worthless and "our" actions belligerent in the extreme.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 14 2022 4:43 utc | 167

THE ART OF DISINFORMATION–WESTERN LIES ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE

who likes asking interesting questions and who likes reading who?

Posted by: james | May 14 2022 4:49 utc | 168

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 14 2022 2:52 utc | 155
"I know one thing, and one thing only.... "Richard Stevens Hack" is not this poster's real name..."

LOL Now that is a new one! Not that it matters. I've been posting under the same name since I got on the Internet twenty years ago. Even if it wasn't my real name - and it is - it wouldn't matter due to the consistency. A quick Google would show you posts of mine going back however long Google is willing to search on dozens of sites - and it's all consistent views. Search this site - I believe I've had posts here from 6 or 8 years ago, mostly on Iran back then.

"Note that he only gives credence to MI6/CIA/NSA sources.."

Wow - So I guess Mercouris, Ritter, Macgregor, even Martyanov are "CIA assets". Amazing. Andrei will want to know.

You just blew your credibility here, boyo. Not to mention your inability to formulate a sentence. Maybe you're working for Trump or Biden since they can't, either.

One of the funniest posts I've seen here - and that's saying something given some of the jerkoffs.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 4:50 utc | 169

Sunny Runny Burger | May 14 2022 4:43 utc | 163 - quote

"The US must deescalate and withdraw. "

it doesn't sound like the same usa i know... give it 20 or more years.. welp.. maybe they don't have that long anymore..

Posted by: james | May 14 2022 4:51 utc | 170

It was deeply offensive.
Posted by: juliania | May 14 2022 1:49 utc | 143

Never in my life would I have expected Francis to smirk about his childish insult of the Patriarch. The whole world putrifies, at every facet. I'm disturbed that Catholic commentary on this historic insult remains completely oblivious, at this writing, to the significance of what Francis is doing. No "walking it back"; it was totally intentional, and Francis, after all, is infallible -- until he isn't.

It's time for the world to remind Francis of previous Catholic problems, affiliating with Nazis. Now I've chosen some reading matter: The Deputy by Rolf Hochhuth, "the most controversial play of our time."

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 14 2022 4:55 utc | 171

Posted by: Circe | May 14 2022 2:48 utc | 154
"So why single me out in that nasty tone? Never mind."

For the last time, I did not "single you out." I posted what I did because you constantly get over-excited whenever any minor setback occurs in the SMO, and I'm trying to show you that such things are not that important. And whenever you do, someone points that out - and then the next day you're back with another panic attack. Relax. The Russians have got this.

"Also, I believe the excerpt you quoted @ 95 stated the 15,000 Ukie forces with U.S. fire-power are mobilizing from the Nikolayev area to frontlines in Ukraine West of the Donets, not to the Russian border."

That's what I said. You seemed to imply in your post that you thought the 15,000 were going to be involved in an attack across the Russian border. If I misinterpreted your statement, my apologies.

"The attacks inside Russia will be staged by other Ukie forces, probably the ones that were fighting around Kharkiv"

Possibly. I've no idea where the units that have hit across the border come from. There's plenty of ground up there that the Russians don't control.

"what should have been done to prevent such losses."

Aside from perfect execution of every action and a lot of luck, you can't. That's why it's called "war".

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 4:58 utc | 172

Just watched the Defense Politics Asia video someone recommended earlier. He pointed out the same thing I did - 73 armored vehicles is not important in the overall picture. The Russians have destroyed over 3,000 Ukrainian vehicles, and Ukraine claims to have destroyed over 2,000 Russian vehicles (which I do not believe for a second.) 73 is a drop in the bucket. And as he pointed out, in the photos and video it looks like a lot of the vehicles there are either still operational or repairable.

Another point is that the photos and videos are inconsistent with there being only one crossing - but consistent with the Rybar analysis I posted earlier, i.e., there were at least two attempts to cross the river, and apparently at least one was not entirely unsuccessful. If you look at the first pontoon - the ones with the sunken tanks and tanks on the opposite shore, that seems clear.

The entire problem appears to be a lack of AD against surveillance drones overnight which enabled a Ukraine UAV to pinpoint the vehicle park area (which he notes is off the road itself for obvious reasons) for Ukrainian artillery.

If that's true, no doubt someone will get chewed out, because there should have been major AD for a river crossing. And the next time they try, which I'm sure they will, there almost certainly will be. A few Pantsirs should at least be there.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 5:09 utc | 173

=> Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 4:58 utc | 168

You do understand that absolutely all of this is destined to boil down to a very strange sticky brown narcotic substance in the end?

Posted by: blues | May 14 2022 5:10 utc | 174

@165 Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 4:50 utc - "blew your credibility..."

You shoulder the burden of a lot of nuances in your posts, and I appreciate that - but how about if we add one more layer, which is that few people actually blow their credibility for all time, just from one post?

Doctorow doesn't destroy his long-haul value from some of the downs of his ups and downs, and Oprisko has established a lot more credibility over time here than could be wiped away in one post. You yourself are someone whom I stopped reading after your parting death threat some time ago, and whom I have gradually become fascinated with lately for the diamond worth of your reporting on the war.

We all say things that are less than we are. We all have ups and downs. Patience, forgiveness, forbearance, tolerance and wide acceptance of margins of error will help us all along the path together - even as we ruthlessly focus on the truth itself and nothing but.

Everybody just carry on, everything be just fine...

Two cents.

Posted by: Grieved | May 14 2022 5:24 utc | 175

Posted by: Grieved | May 14 2022 5:24 utc | 171

No doubt you're right. I shall try to resume my "ignore the trolls" policy. But that post was just hilarious. :-) After all I've posted here, I'm a CIA asset. Amazing. I guess I should assume he was drunk, that makes more sense.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 5:40 utc | 176

Biden slips again... From Sputnik News Telegram channel...

Suddenly: Joe Biden forgot everything again and made a slip. This time about who is the president of the United States. At the summit of the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Biden called Kamala Harris, the Vice president of the United States, an American leader. Or maybe he didn't misspoke?

From the official transcript, the White House entered the "Vice". I entered the "sic". :-) And this is after he said "Vice President" several times earlier.

"And that’s why I asked [sic: Vice] President Harris to travel to the region last August..."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 5:48 utc | 177

Does this look like a war where Russia is trying? It looks like they are holding a lot back.

Posted by: Daniel | May 14 2022 0:35 utc | 127

That 60+ kilomter stalled/strategically located(?) convoy of RF forces just north of Kiev during the first two weeks of the SMO may indeed support this observation. How? 1. Why would miles and miles of RF forces just sit out in the wide open for many days with the bulk of Ukraine forces still intact and 2. Why the hell did the Ukraine forces NOT attack that convoy to score at a bare minimum a massive PR victory for Ukie forces vs. the obvious desperate and failed attempt at Snake Island? If that long RF convoy was indeed placed there to pull Ukie forces off the Donbass contact line, it was a massive bait gamble on RF's part...or was it? As former infantry, I would have aged a year every day while sitting in that type of "traffic jam!"

Posted by: ERing46Z | May 14 2022 5:59 utc | 178

it's hard to offer forgiveness, tolerance and patience to those won't don't appear to offer the same! thanks for your comment @ 171 grieved.. none of this comes easy to anyone... we'd all benefit from following what you say... easier said then done!

Posted by: james | May 14 2022 6:03 utc | 179

Lloyd Austin has urged his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine

After three months of no conversations the first call is the US asking (begging?) for a cease fire. Interesting if true.

Posted by: circumspect | May 14 2022 6:13 utc | 180

What will be saved in western Ukraine will be unable to grow enough to feed its own people. They will be forced to import US wheat, as well as US guns and the money to pay for both..."
http://johnhelmer.net/
Posted by: bevin | May 14 2022 1:08 utc | 135

Ukies unable to feed themselves? ...more supportive, in-direct evidence of the WEF-driven, global depopulation 'great reset.'

Posted by: ERing46Z | May 14 2022 6:14 utc | 181

@99 Oprisko

"I regard any opinion of Richard S. Hack, as a "Hack" of the truth."

This is my impression as well. I routinely skip everything he writes. Essentially he is spamming the site.

A few weeks ago a barfly suggested that if he wishes to contribute such a large number of posts, that he could start his own blog and give us a link to it. He does not seem to be inclined to take the trouble to do this..

INDY

Posted by: Clover | May 14 2022 6:16 utc | 182

@ Grieved | May 14 2022 5:24 utc | 171 with their two cents about life at the MoA bar to share with RSH

Thanks for that.

My additional two cents would be that this is an environment where it is best to have the 4th of the Hopi precept's in mind when you contribute (Don't own the outcome) as well as the perspective that what others may write about you often times says much more about them than it does about you.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 14 2022 6:16 utc | 183

m777a guns in ukraine have had the electronic targeting systems removed. pretty much making them ordinary artillery . sensitive enough to not want RF getting a peak at. can easily verify its the big black box with a screen on the top of the gun in usa stock photos

Posted by: hankster | May 14 2022 6:21 utc | 184

To Richard Steven Hack: You are very good and I urge you to keep up dealing with trolls. The Western propaganda is overwhelming and some people cannot believe that they are being lied to everyday. They simply can't see the big picture, and brought up in a culture where hollowood reigns supreme or America got talent etc..

I do not go on to any social media websites for I know who owns them, just like I know who owns all of mainstream media. Everything in the taught history in the west is designed to make them look like the good guys, the saviours. It is completely incorrect, false and designed to brainwash.

Everyday you see the West coming up with more ways of sanctions or ways to stop others from trying to get needed supplies for their citizens. Everyday you see them begging, bullying countries to join their crusade. Why? They are winning just like in the hollowood movies.

Posted by: Karl luck | May 14 2022 6:26 utc | 185

This tweet claims that the concentration and location of Russian troops can be deduced from SIM roaming data. I always thought that mobile phones were not allowed in the SMO.
Thoughts on this?

Posted by: TomD | May 14 2022 6:29 utc | 186

SIM roaming data...?
@ TomD | May 14 2022 6:29 utc | 181

Looks like textbook Bellingcrap to me!

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 14 2022 6:35 utc | 187

Posted by: Clover | May 14 2022 6:16 utc | 177
"he could start his own blog and give us a link to it. He does not seem to be inclined to take the trouble to do this.."

I have a Substack, but aside from one article I put there as an overview of the Ukraine situation, that is not its primary focus.

If you want to stay ignorant of the information I provide here, that's your decision.


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 6:36 utc | 188

Scott Ritter on International Legion hijinks:

This inability to effectively screen genuine combat veterans from LARPers points to a lack of professionalism on the part of the International Legion.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/05/13/scott-ritter-live-action-role-play-in-ukraine/

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 14 2022 6:56 utc | 189

A few weeks ago a barfly suggested that if he wishes to contribute such a large number of posts...
Posted by: Clover | May 14 2022 6:16 utc | 177

Whenever the question is opened for comment (but let's not do it again, really, it gets tedious!) people say long posts are okay with them, when it's as informative as what RSH provides.

I was getting a kick out of someone questioning RSH's mysterious identity -- as if that makes any difference to anyone -- but it's getting a little intense today. Ease up, please y'all!

Arguing about who around here is most credible is a flagrant waste of everyone's time. Just get out of bed in the morning questioning everything you hear. What use does anyone have for attaching this property "credibility" to someone? For instance: I regard Scott Ritter as way up there, credibility-wise -- but I'm prepared to be unsurprised if he start talking crap tomorrow. The world is like that: Formerly truthful people turn into liars -- so flush your stash of credibility.

For my part, I'm assuming RSH is actually Charles Luther Thanos, which sounds like the arch-enemy of a superhero, or perhaps an assassin. Middle-names are practically de rigeur for famous assassins -- Sirhan Sirhan being the exception that proves the rule.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 14 2022 7:20 utc | 190

To what degree the Americans can increasing their dosage of involvement without being seen as a direct involvement that will lead to a big war?

Other than few east European countries who will continue to show their loyalty to the US, it is very difficult to believe that the test of the European countries are actually willing to turn this conflict into a major war with nuclear exchange that will grantee their capitals to be wiped a way in few seconds, starting with Finland!

Posted by: Man | May 14 2022 7:34 utc | 191

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 14 2022 7:20 utc | 185 "
Charles Luther Thanos, which sounds like the arch-enemy of a superhero, or perhaps an assassin."

Heh, that reminds me, someone else tried to tie that name to English Royalty as well as a supervillain. Allow me to set the record straight.

"Charles Luther" was the name of a character in a movie called "Runaway", portrayed by Gene Simmons of the rock group "Kiss" in one of his two or three movie roles back in the 80's. It was a movie about a cop played by Tom Selleck who was an expert in robot-related crimes, set in the future. Simmons was so excellent as the diabolical Luther, plus of course the theme was "cyberpunk" which I am into, that I always remembered the role. I have the movie on my hard drive.

"Thanos", of course, is the comic supervillain. I like supervillains. They have the right attitude for living in this world.

The name was put together on the spur of the moment so I could get a user name after numerous others - including "Charles Luther" by itself - was rejected as already used by Protonmail, in order to bypass the stupid filter on this site that decided it didn't like me. That has been a recurring problem since a lot of filters for sites are programmed to monitor for "hackers" and the name "Hack" gets filtered. This was true even back in the 80's when there were only a few "bulletin boards" instead of Web site.

Everyone clear on that now?

When I first got on the Internet twenty years ago, I decided that instead of using - and hiding behind - a moronic "handle", I would take responsibility and credit for everything I post on social media. Which is why a Google search will reveal that same name in use for the last twenty years, except in a few cases where the name was too long for a particular Web site (such as Pat Lang's who bitched at me about it) in which case I would use a shortened version (which occasionally might get refused due to there being a number of other people with the same first and last name. I also use "thanos" and "doctordoom" - another favorite character - on unimportant sites unrelated to posting opinion.

As an aside, there's a guy who lives within six blocks of me who has the same first and last name. He runs a poetry zine. We actually met once by sheer accident in an office downtown. There's also a Hollywood movie and TV critic who wrote a book on Howard Hughes who has the same name. I used to see him listed as being interviewed on some talk show while not remembering ever having been booked. :-)

Well, bed time. Later.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 14 2022 7:51 utc | 192


Posted by: Grieved | May 14 2022 5:24 utc | 171

"We all say things that are less than we are. We all have ups and downs. Patience, forgiveness, forbearance, tolerance and wide acceptance of margins of error will help us all along the path together - even as we ruthlessly focus on the truth itself and nothing but"...

Grieved, thanks for you polymath observations. You give the bar a certain tone. Thanks to RSH you do a lot of hard work. I'm glad you reappeared after your absence.

The last good thing out of Indiana was the 1964 Studebaker Datona. [South Bend] INDI

Posted by: Paul | May 14 2022 8:06 utc | 193

Posted by: Gerrard White | May 14 2022 8:52 utc | 189

What did he say?

It's about time for some diplomacy. Why leave that to Austin?

Have the adults left the room?

Posted by: Paul | May 14 2022 9:00 utc | 195

re: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2022 23:13 utc | 101

флюгегехаймен

ah, the new things I learn everyday, here at MOA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NmYUUv8DUE


...Have the adults left the room?

Posted by: Paul | May 14 2022 9:00 utc | 190

foreseeing my comment, eh?

Posted by: tucenz | May 14 2022 9:15 utc | 196

re: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2022 23:13 utc | 101

флюгегехаймен

ah, the new things I learn everyday, here at MOA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NmYUUv8DUE


...Have the adults left the room?

Posted by: Paul | May 14 2022 9:00 utc | 190

foreseeing my comment, eh?

Posted by: tucenz | May 14 2022 9:15 utc | 197


From Rybar telegram channel:
In connection with the greatly increased threat of registration of the "Severodonetsk boiler", as a diversionary maneuver, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may well attempt to counterattack in the Nikolaev direction .
True, it is worth noting that for this purpose two brigades - 28 and 60 th, are clearly not enough. The latter was completely formed after the start of hostilities as part of the reserve corps and was equipped with weapons and military equipment at reserve levels.
The APU's success is possible only through long-range artillery, which will operate as part of separate "wandering" guns emplaced in apt buildings in Nikolaev.

There is an active preparation of a strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Cossack Lopan and Strelechya in order to reach the Russian border. According to some reports, the Ukrainian command planned the offensive for tomorrow.

▪️Against the background of information about the upcoming offensive, Viktor Andrusiv , adviser to the head of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, promised to begin artillery shelling of Belgorod . The statement was made deliberately in order to cause panic among the population of the Russian region.

▪️Artillery is working from Zolochev on the positions of the RF Armed Forces in Kazachya Lopan, using only the delivered 155-mm M777 howitzers.

▪️Fighting continues in the vicinity of the Nursery . The settlement is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

▪️Mi-8 helicopters will provide air support from the Korotich airfield .

▪️For the planned offensive in Kharkov , reserve units are being assembled, mainly from the territorial defense.

This will bring AFU forces out in the open and away from Kharkhov. There they will be easy meat for the Allies. Their destruction will reduce the forces holding out in Kharkhov.

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 14 2022 9:17 utc | 198

@Gerrard White | May 14 2022 8:52 utc | 189

Significant in the sense that my first reaction after following that link was "Where is the readout?".

Then I realized the "readout" was 2 sentences long, the first being an introduction. The second being an urge to "immediate ceasefire" from the party that is pouring weapons into western Ukraine. Maybe it is supposed to be understood as "stop shooting, we're loosing"?

Posted by: Norwegian | May 14 2022 9:50 utc | 199

Richard, you keep putting the "hack" in your name when you continue to groundlessly insist Russia intends to go to the Polish border. Again, pull it back, you're not a soothsayer, you're not reading tea leaves; you're guessing GROUNDLESSLY. We know they intend to wrap up the Donbass, after that Kiev sits there like a plum, Odessa another. We don't know if Russia will take them, we don't know if they will. We don't know what negotiations/surrender will be entrusted to deliver. Guessing about future events we have no data about is nothing but rank speculation. You should try to refrain from that, it's not good for your credibility
Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 26 2022 15:21 utc | 398
I’d be very careful with what I say if I were you, ScottinDallas. hack has threatened barflies with death if they crossed his path. He refuses to apologize for that. You know, kind of like, water under the bridge, bygones be bygones, old news. Barfly Norwegian could tell you more about it.
I’ve known him through here and elsewhere for over a decade. He considers himself all-knowing, omnipotent, sooth-sayer, seer, transhuman. He tries to overtake threads and reduce the noise-to-signal ratio by cuting-and-pasting copious amount of text, sometimes passing it for his own thoughts.
He has been predicting/advocating the ‘war on Iran’ for multiple decades. First it was by the end of the 2000s. Then by the end of 2010s. I wonder if he has updated it for by-the-end-of, you guessed it, 2020s? Says, there can’t be this much enmity, and no war. Doesn’t realize that in a hot war, the empire will have it’s arse handed to it, and that’s why war by other means is fought against Iran (read: sanction, regime change wet dreams, cultural, everyday vitriol, demonization, etc., etc.)
He’ll of course call me a troll, and ask barflies to ignore me, as I seem to get in his craw, when I call him out.

Posted by: jethro | May 14 2022 10:03 utc | 200

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