Ucrania, Finlandia, países bálticos, misiles en Polonia y Rumanía, complicaciones adicionales,
Lo Veo complicado

Posted by: Felipe | May 13 2022 17:47 utc | 3

Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 17:45 utc | 2
Confirm that The Telegraph prints fake news?
Yes, confirmed.

Posted by: Ricardo Ramírez | May 13 2022 17:55 utc | 5

($)40,000,000,000/330,000,000 = $121.21 per individual (unless I screwed up). Why am I paying $121.21 to support Nazis?
Poland has missiles obviously pointing at Russia. Polish soldiers anywhere in Ukraine will be treated as Azovs. Russia will, I believe, treat all of the Ukraine as a sort of Puerto Rico.
If Finland moves to join NATO, that means instant war. The Russians will not tolerate being surrounded by hostile forces.

Posted by: blues | May 13 2022 17:56 utc | 7

I’m bit ticked off. I read this ROFLAO.
Readovka | Nebenzya cited a Ukrainian textbook on geography at a meeting of the Security Council

Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya brought a Ukrainian geography textbook for the eighth grade to the meeting of the Security Council. He quoted several strange facts invented by Ukrainian authors: “If you believe it [the textbook], then the ancestors of the French, Spaniards, Portuguese, Turks and even Jews came from Ukraine. I would like to address my French colleague. Nicolas, did you know that you are actually Ukrainian? If you don’t believe me, read the textbook. It has iron logic. Since the ancestors of the French are Gauls, they came from Galicia.” Nebenzya quotes.

Said to myself, No Way! Lemme fact check. So listened to whole 5 May UNSC and 6 May arria-formula meeting hosted by RF. The former, a pageant of obsequious R2P bromides, insulted my intelligence; the latter, poignant though witness’ statements are, made no impression on the hostiles’ scripted responses. Now I haven’t the heart to continue my search for the source material. Shame on you, Readovka!

Posted by: sln2002 | May 13 2022 18:00 utc | 9

Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 17:45 utc | 2
I don’t know if it’s about the same incident but DPA (Defense Politics Asia) channel on youtube has a thorough analysis, basically debunking a lot of claims.
DPA Video here

Posted by: CPY | May 13 2022 18:05 utc | 11

Thanks for the clarifications, gentlemen!

Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 18:05 utc | 13

Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 17:45 utc | 2
Later reports, hoping to avoid the ridiculousness of claiming that a whole Russian battalion had been destroyed, said that it was their armoured vehicles that had been destroyed. How many can you get on a pontoon bridge? And how many are in a Russian armoured battalion?

Posted by: laguerre | May 13 2022 18:09 utc | 15

This is what really happened on that river crossing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKX1MKW5wjE

Posted by: Dejan | May 13 2022 18:20 utc | 17

Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 17:45 utc | 2
The posts I made in the last thread last night from Rybar and others indicated that Russia did suffer “significant” losses trying to get that pontoon bridge up. Allegedly some of their forces made it over the river. Allegedly they are continuing to try to get the bridge up.
Depending on the disposition of forces there on both sides, sooner or later Russia will succeed or try something else. Russia can bring all sorts of stuff to bear on whatever Ukrainian units are defending the crossing. Ukraine can’t. As Mercouris points out in his last video, anything going on up there in the northeast is between relatively small numbers of forces. So it is no threat to the overall operation.
So logic says this is a temporary tactical problem, as Martyanov would say. It will be rectified or bypassed. It has nothing to do with the operational tempo or the ultimate outcome. As Martyanov and Ritter would say, shit happens in war.
Really, people, despite Et Tu’s concern trolling and evidence-free dismissal of Martyanov, go listen to Martyanov’s video from this past Monday. I reproduce the link here:
Surprise, Not!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgIgXjSnCJM
His entire point is that the Russian General Staff knows how to plan. His other point is that there three levels of a military campaign: strategic, operational and tactical. The only two that really matter are strategic and operational.
Having problems getting a pontoon bridge may slow things down at one front in the operation, but the overall operation proceeds apace.
Dredging up every tactical problem and hand waving about it is just a distraction. The same for the Moskva sinking, although that took a significant resource out of play, however I’ve also read that it was not doing much in terms of the overall operation.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 18:33 utc | 19

Simon Matthews has quite a bit about the Finnish position in the pre-Barbarossa period. Both the Finns and the Swedes were anti-communist and inclined to support the Germans. The Finns were part of the Siege of Leningrad (in which Putin’s elder brother died of starvation) and the Swedes played a vital role in fueling the Nazi war machine during the war. As Matthews chronicles, the two countries seriously considered re-amalgamation and worked jointly to produce a draft Peace between the UK and Germany in 1940. This was designed to give the Nazis free rein to conquer the Soviet Union.
After the war Finland agreed to be neutral-Finlandisation- while the Swedes, somewhat hypocritically, promoted the view that they were neutral and that their position in the war proved it. One of the benefits of this Swedish neutrality was that its arms industry (think Saab etc) and engineering production was not swallowed by the US.
“..The involvement of Sweden in trying to broker a peace in August-September
1940 has been noted. By assembling material from a variety of sources,
including John Lukacs’s The Last European War: September 1939 – December
1941, Finland emerges as the next critical player in attempts to take the UK
out of the war through 1940-1941.
“Both Gustav V and Marshal Mannerheim, President of Finland, considered
the USSR to be the major threat to Europe, and both were in favour of peace
between Germany and the UK. Finland had received some support from the UK
during and after its 1939-1940 war with the Soviet Union, but it knew from its
basic geographical position, particularly after the German triumphs of June
1940, that the UK could not be depended on as a military ally. ….Faced with unpalatable choices, Finland made a rapprochement with Germany.
“By July 1940, prior to his visit to Stockholm, Ludwig Weissauer was in Helsinki
discussing Finland’s ability to defend itself with Mannerheim, talks that
continued a month later with Josef Veltjens, Göring’s personal emissary.
“There were attempts, in September-November 1940, to offset this move
toward reliance on Germany with discussions about a Swedish-Finnish federal
state, for which US support was canvassed. The idea was dropped when both
Germany and the Soviet Union proved to be opposed to it. After Hitler decreed
that planning for Operation Barbarossa (the invasion and subjugation of the
Soviet Union) should commence on 5 December 1940, with the invasion itself
taking place on 15 May 1941, Finland shifted inexorably into the German
camp. Military talks, involving Major General Paavo Talvela, Colonel General
Halder and Göring, began between Finland and Germany in Berlin on 15
January 1941 – though at this point they were still framed in terms of assisting
Finland in its defensive preparations.
“The same day that these talks began, the minute book of the Polish Relief
Fund records: ‘The Hon. Secretary reported that he would be absent abroad on
Finnish Government business for the next 3-4 weeks. He asked therefore to be
excused from attendance at meetings.’ The Honorary Secretary of the Polish
Relief Fund was Tancred Borenius. Born in Finland, then part of Russia, in
1885, he had moved to London where he became a Lecturer at University
College, and was prominent in artistic circles (skirting the fringes of
Bloomsbury Group) pre-1914. He was also close to Mannerheim and a member
of the Finnish diplomatic mission from 1918. By the 1930s he was art adviser
to the Earl of Harewood. Son-in-law to Queen Mary, brother-in-law to George
VI, Harewood said in later life: ‘every war in which Britain had been involved
had been due to the inefficiency of politicians, and that they began what
soldiers had to end’ – not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Churchill
government. Prior to departing on his mission for Finland, Borenius was briefed
by Claude Dansey and sent with the knowledge of the head of MI6, Colonel Stewart Menzies…”
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/free/lobster81/lob81-scotland-churchill-hess-1941.pdf

Posted by: bevin | May 13 2022 18:37 utc | 21

Thanks for the videos on the alleged bridge massacre. Love the wry commentary …
“Two charred one, two broken ones, one slightly swimming.” 😂

Posted by: Dale | May 13 2022 18:49 utc | 23

@ Dejan | May 13 2022 18:20 utc | 16
thanks for that…

Posted by: james | May 13 2022 18:51 utc | 25

Dale (2).
The Telegraph is a well known outlet for MI5 and MI6, especially for posting disinformation, I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 13 2022 19:01 utc | 27

Posted by: bevin | May 13 2022 18:40 utc | 21
I regard Doctorow as an unreliable source. Prior to the war, he was babbling a ton of bullshit over at Antiwar.com which I had to call him on it repeatedly.
And he takes information from a taxi driver who says he has “contacts”? Seriously? I call total bullshit on his whole article.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:04 utc | 29

Michael McFaul was in Toronto yesterday for the Munk Debate: Russia-Ukraine War, with Stephen Walt, John Mearsheimer v Michael McFaul, Radosław Sikorski, the resolution being debated was Yay/Nay “ending the world’s worst geo-political crisis starts with acknowledging Russia’s security interests”, For those who dont follow the Munk debates, about 4 yrs ago there was a similar debate with Stephen Cohen where the Munk debates reversed the results when they came out “wrong”. Anyhow the Munk debates made sure to pepper the results well in advance this time with an 63% nay vote (ok, well if your not willing to acknowledge Russia’s security interests to stop a war, that can ONLY mean you want to continue the war in the hopes of “winning” the war against Russia, too bad it’s Ukrainians who are dying in the meanwhile).
Anyhow, I bring this up because McFaul was a hysterical mess during the debate, talking over the other debaters, interrupting them, shouting, at one point he even said that YES, US diplomats lie to other nations (ok Michael, then why the hell should Russia believe YOU when you give these worthless security assurances!) McFaul looks like he realizes that the US’s ambitions in Ukraine are collapsing and he’s hoping for a miracle to save them. But listening to these people (even Mearsheimer) makes it obvious how out of touch all of them are with the global situation. Globalism is dead, Russia will never reintegrate with the West, the theft of the 300 billion dollars, will not be forgiven or forgotten, what most people dont remember is that this is the 2nd time in 100 yrs where the West has seized Russia’s foreign reserves, they did it before after the Russian Revolution and it took more than 60 yrs before Russia was willing to trust the West with their money again. How long will it take this time, 80 yrs, 100yrs? But listening to these “experts” they talk as if once Russia is expelled from Ukraine and Putin is removed from power, Russia will beg to be integrated into the West. No, Russia and the West have undergone a bitter divorce and never again the twain shall meet.

Posted by: Kadath | May 13 2022 19:17 utc | 31

In the previous thread there was discussion about the huge material losses suffered by “Russia” when trying to to cross the Seversky Donets River and established a bridgehead in Belogorovka. It now seems that not all the losses were Russian. Here is a good analysis.

New “Duffer’s Drift”. Who was defeated at the crossing over the Seversky Donets? – Greatwarchannel, May 13, 2022
1) According to the composition of the burned equipment, we see the presence of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, as well as the forces of the LPR or DPR. It will no longer be possible to write down the whole bunch in Russian losses.
2) As you can see from photo 5, the path is well-trodden there, which is understandable. After the explosion of the bridges, such a convenient crossing point could not be ignored by both sides.
3) Thus, we are approaching the most probable version of what happened at the crossing in the Belogorovka area. The place of crossing fell in love with both sides. And, at first, the Ukrainians raked there, but the Russian (allied) forces also suffered losses during the crossing.
4) The “mix” of equipment and its condition indicate that the parties fought for the crossing for some time (perhaps about a week) until it passed into the hands of the allied forces.

Note, that “Дурацкого брода” in the Russian title refers to The Defence of Duffer’s Drift, a 1904 book on tactics by Ernest Dunlop Swinton.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 13 2022 19:28 utc | 33

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 13 2022 19:28 utc | 32
Heh, in other words, it was a typical tactical “clusterfuck” for both sides. One of the Telegram sources I noted in the last thread said that some Russian (or LDR – as Martyanov frequently remarks, they’re doing most of the fighting in the Donbass area) made it over the river. So now it will probably depend on whether they can hold their positions. As Russian doctrine usually says, “Reinforce winning units”, my guess would be that Russia will now succeed in getting over the river.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:35 utc | 35

Well, a quibble. It’s beneath Doctorow. Bevin was just reporting what he said, which is fine by me. I like to know when people who are supposed to be “pundits” make fools of themselves.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:37 utc | 35
Fair enough. MOA rescinded; replaced by Doctorow.

Posted by: Activist Potato | May 13 2022 19:42 utc | 37

Richard Sakwa has a new book out called “The Russia Scare: Fake News and Genuine Threat”. Just downloaded it, not read it yet. It’s apparently out since the invasion, copyright is 2023. Since the book costs $160 in hardcover and $40 in digital, the free link below is obviously preferred. From interviews I’ve seen of Sakwa, he appears to take a “realist” approach to Russia.
The promotion blurb says:

The Russia Scare assesses the scope, character and extent of Russian interference in the affairs of liberal democratic states.
This book examines the ‘Russia scare’ in a dynamic manner, stressing the interaction between threat perception, responses and subsequent policies. What forms did this threat take, what were the instruments used, how effective were the deployed tools and who were the allies with whom Russia worked in these endeavours? Above all, what impact did interference have on target societies? The book explores why Russia engaged in such activities, what the probable chain of command was (if any) and the role of the Russian leadership in all of this, as well as investigating the response of Western societies and governments. The author sifts the real from the imagined, which can only be achieved by establishing the larger historical context. He scrutinises the fundamental question: was Russia before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 really engaged in a sustained ‘hybrid warfare’ campaign to sow discord and undermine Western democracies? If so, what were the strategic purposes underlying such an activity? Various hypotheses are analysed, notably that Russian post-Cold War activity is nothing exceptional in the context of great power confrontation; that all great powers are engaged in one way or another in such actions, and thus contextualisation is important; and that Russia’s subversive activity was often exaggerated, even misrepresented. Responses potentially amplified the elements of subversion represented by the original threat. Threats exist, but responses always need to be calibrated so as not to inflict self-harm on the integrity of liberal democracy itself.

The book can be downloaded for free here:
https://sanet.st/blogs/mecury-books/the_russia_scare_fake_news_and_genuine_threat.4116558.html

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:45 utc | 39

From Pepe Escobar’s Telegram channel, forwarded from Eurasian and Multipolarities…https://t.me/c/1394010098/3557

Putin, 6 years ago on Finland & NATO
“We have withdrawn all our armed forces from the borders of Finland to a depth of 1,500 kilometers. And, despite the tension in the Baltic Sea region, nothing was done that could cause concern to the Finns.
Incidentally, we are doing this on the basis of Finland’s neutral status. Imagine Finland joining NATO. This means that the Finnish troops will no longer be independent, sovereign in the full sense of the word. They will become part of NATO’s military infrastructure, which will suddenly appear on the borders of the Russian Federation.
Do you think we will continue to act like this: we have withdrawn our troops for 1,500 kilometers, so they will remain there, or what? We cherish the neutral status of Finland, we treat it with respect, but it is not up to us to decide this issue. Paraphrasing the statement of one of my Finnish friends, I could say that the NATO organization would probably be happy to fight Russia to the last Finnish soldier. You need it?”
@dimsmirnov175 (https://t.me/dimsmirnov175/33362)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:57 utc | 41

Pepe Escobar’s latest at Strategic Culture… If you can’t get it, I expect it will show up at The Saker eventually…
Empire of Bioweapon Lies
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/05/13/empire-of-bioweapon-lies/

The provisional results of evidence being collected about the work of U.S. bioweapons in Ukraine are simply astonishing. These are the main takeaways.
U.S. bioweapon ideologues comprise the leadership of the Democratic Party. By linking with non-governmental biotechnology organizations, using the investment funds of the Clintons, Rockefellers, Soros and Biden, they profited from additional campaign financing – all duly concealed. In parallel, they assembled the legislative basis for financing the bioweapons program directly from the federal budget.
COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna, as well as Merck and Gilead – of Donald “known unknowns” fame, and affiliated with the Pentagon – were directly involved.
U.S. specialists tested new drugs in the Ukraine biolabs in circumvention of international safety standards. According to Kirillov, acting this way “Western companies seriously reduce the costs of research programs and gain significant competitive advantages.”
According to Kirillov, “along with U.S. pharmaceutical companies and Pentagon contractors, Ukrainian government agencies are involved in military biotechnology activities, whose main tasks are to conceal illegal activities, conduct field and clinical trials and provide the necessary biomaterial.”
The Pentagon, Kirillov pointed out, expanded its research potential not only in terms of producing biological weapons, but also gathering information on antibiotic resistance and the presence of antibodies to certain diseases among the population in specific regions. The testing ground in Ukraine was practically outside the control of the so-called “international community”.
These findings, amply documented, suggest a vast “legitimized” bioweapon racket reaching the highest levels of the American body politic. There’s no doubt the Russians plan to thoroughly unmask it for the benefit of world public opinion, starting with a War Crimes Tribunal to be set up this summer, most probably in Donetsk.
An ongoing U.S. bioweapons program in Ukraine was one of the Top Three reasons that led to the launch of Operation Z, side by side with preventing an imminent NATO-managed blitzkrieg against Donbass and Kiev’s desire to re-start a nuclear weapons program. These are Top Three red lines for Russia.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 20:06 utc | 43

Scott Ritter covers most of the issues with the likely outcome. Some Americans does were rose coloured glasses or beat about the bush.
https://youtu.be/ciUNBIKNxMw

Posted by: Kjs | May 13 2022 20:23 utc | 45

Posted by: sln2002 | May 13 2022 18:00 utc | 8
Hello @sln2002, Nebenzya did bring a school text book to the UNSC.
It was yesterday, 12th May. He starts his statement @ 1hr 15mins 38seconds. Then @ 1hr 24mins, he starts the section on education. Finally @ 1hr 25mins 37seconds, the book is produced.
Here is the link http://media.un.org/en/asset/k16/k16ilbu4c2

Posted by: boon | May 13 2022 20:26 utc | 47

jayc | May 13 2022 19:45 utc | 39
The bottom line is LPR forces were hammered at that crossing. From all the pics it is obvious Ukraine/US forces were able to concentrate a lot of firepower on the crossing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2022 20:40 utc | 49

Rubizhne and Voevodivka have been taken. Ukraine defended the area with all its might. Men have been poured into this meat grinder for 2 months. This is right on the heels of losing Pospasna.
This happened because instead of using its reserves to fight the battle of Donbas, Ukraine is wasting time, initiative, resources, and huge amounts of men to claim dubious victories of little military value north of Kharkiv.
Note that just hours before, Ukrainian outlets were also making grandiose proclamations of victory north of Sievierodonets, just as the glorious defenders of Ukraine had ‘crushed’ the new Russian push on Popasna immediately before the announcement of its loss had to be made by the oblast governor days prior.
These people are living in Lippmanesque sand castles, built up just long enough to distract from the battlefield reality and keep morale.

Posted by: Cesare | May 13 2022 20:45 utc | 51

I regard Doctorow as an unreliable source.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 19:04 utc | 28
@ bevin | May 13 2022 20:04 utc | 41
What interests me here is the question RSH raises, of Doctorow’s reliability. I don’t at all understand the objection to “taxi gossip” — my main concern is evaluating how representative such gossip might be of Russian sentiment. Two main sentimental points, both of which are sources of discomfort, to put it mildly:
(1) This is heading to nuclear war quickly, in which case it’s better if Russia strikes first.
(2) The first five days of the SMO were a disaster, because of corrupt and/or incompetent major generals, who had to be fired. “They should all be shot” the driver kept saying.
These are both, obviously, crucial sentiments to weigh in the Russian consciousness. I’ve appreciated Doctorow’s work, because he’s one of the few writers persistently focused on communicating Russian views to westerners. OTOH, RSH’s dismissal makes an impression.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 20:50 utc | 53

@52 “These are both, obviously, crucial sentiments to weigh in the Russian consciousness.”
They may well be crucial sentiments in that particular taxi driver’s consciousness. He probably thinks he should be running the country. I’ve met a few taxi drivers like that.

Posted by: dh | May 13 2022 21:08 utc | 55

RSH @42–
Along with Escobar’s article is this editorial calling out Western BigLie Media for what it is:
“Is it any wonder that Western governments are massively censoring all critical, independent media? Searching the internet now just brings up approved Western media sources. Hardly any Russian media views are permitted and neither are critical, independent Western perspectives. This draconian suppression of free speech and information by the West is part of their war propaganda campaign aimed at giving the warmongering media free rein to spout their preposterous and pernicious lies unchecked. The implications are shocking. Western states are devolving into totalitarian regimes that at the same time have the audacity to pontificate about democracy and freedom. They largely get away with this absurd audacity because the profiteering corporate media are bought and paid for to be dutifully dumb and obsequious. There is an increasingly vicious circle of toxic Western militarism aided and abetted by so-called media that more accurately should be referred to as the “ministry of truth”.” [My Emphasis]
IMO, a more important fact is presented that goes without comment when the parallel is made between the liberation of Aleppo in 2016 and Mariupol–the Western government and media’s very overt support for Terrorists and their terrorism to the point of declaring them to be “Our Boys.” Looks like the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO vassals have changed the tune George W. Bush announced in 2001–They are now “with the terrorists,” not “against” as was previously pontificated.
So, an increasingly Totalitarian West led by the Outlaw US Empire is overtly allied with its Terrorist Foreign Legion, by arming it and providing media and political support. I’d be very surprised if the Russian Security Council hasn’t come to a similar conclusion. What’s on our minds of course is what has it decided to do about this rapid transformation. I continue to note rhetorical changes from Lavrov and Putin as the situation escalates. Here’s part of what Lavrov said at an annual wreath-laying ceremony on May 6:

We must always remember the lessons of history. Even more so since the West is trying to delete these glorious chapters from history and cross out everything that has been accomplished, and not just to equate the victors over Nazism with criminals, but to make us the main culprits of that war, to whitewash Nazism in every possible way, and to encourage Nazi manifestations in modern Europe. We can see this in the Baltic States and Ukraine, where neo-Nazism and new manifestations of anti-Semitism are flourishing under the current Kiev regime with the connivance of the collective West.
A propaganda war has been unleashed against the Russian Federation and our people, against any Russian who happens to be in any European, Western or any other country. This is a manifestation of outright racism (this is another form of discrimination, which is now being brought to the point of absurdity), when at the personal level they begin to instill hatred for everything that is connected to the Russian Federation. You can see it yourself.
No “punishment” or sanctions can break the will of our people or the Russian leadership which aims to uphold the historical truth and the legitimate interests of the Russian Federation, and to prevent direct threats to our security, culture or history from being created on our borders (as has been done for many years now). All this is now at stake, including the future of the world and what this world will be like. Will it be a unipolar world under the full “command” of the United States (as Washington wants it and as all Western countries have agreed), or will it be fair and democratic.
In a concerted effort with the overwhelming majority of the countries, we stand for this. Our efforts rely on the UN Charter, an organisation that was created as a result of the Second World War, rather than some speculative constructs like the “rules” invented by the Americans and imposed on everyone else. The ideals of justice and the sovereign equality of states enshrined in this document are especially relevant today. Those who do not recognise equality and who want to impose their dictate on the world are trying to rewrite these ideals. [My Emphasis]

If that sounded like Lavrov saying the world is now engaged in World War III, you would be correct.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2022 21:19 utc | 57

That is classic “man on the street” bullshit. The man on the street only knows for certainty the cost of living.
Posted by: Activist Potato | May 13 2022 21:11 utc | 55
Maybe you never heard of my brother Wes “Scoop” Nisker — with the all-time classic sign-off:

If you don’t like the news, go out and make some of your own!

After Mal Sharpe, Nisker nearly invented the “man on the street” interview in his work at KSAN. (That was so long ago it dates my Bay Area tenure, I’ll tell ya.) He went on to pursue another invented genre: pop buddhism (“You Are Not Your Fault and Other Revelations”).
Anyways — I simply don’t share your aversion to unreliable rumors rising from men or women “on the street”. Wouldn’t you like to know whether other Russians, besides the driver who happened to pick up Doctorow, share such sentiments? I certainly would. That’s what I’m doing here, actually: yearning for a read on human sentiment.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 21:24 utc | 59

@50 Cesare, thank you for big picture context, but I’m with Peter @48 on this.
Whether it was 70 tanks and vehicles or half that or whatever, you see swaths of scorched earth in the area of the pontoon.
As a non-military person is it too much to ask the following? Before putting up a pontoon bridge how much scouting and air surveillance is done to secure the area?
Once again, I suspect U.S. assistance here. Which begs a second question: Who did more surveillance–the Russians or the Americans or U.S.-supplied drones?
I think the answer lies with the aftermath on the ground. I know the temptation is to spin this again as: shit happens, and the Ukes took a hit too, and insist that in the grand scheme it’s just a blip; that’s all. However, someone dropped the ball here when you have to add up casualties, charred equipment and delays. The moment I clicked the link–ugh; my heart sank. Any way you look at it, it’s a fuck-up. Sorry, I hate this; I’d rather be writing something else. I was intending to write something else, but there’s yet more that got in the way to abort my optimism, and I can’t wrap my head around any of it!
Just moments ago, I’m hearing on MSM and also noticed a Stars and Stripes article alleging that the Ukes knocked out 13 Russian vessels in the Black Sea so far since the SMO started. I know; source, but 13, really? Did they all invent this figure coz it’s Friday the 13th today?
How is it possible that the Ukes did this on their own? Are there not radars, warnings? WTF? This cannot be happening in the Donbass; this should not happen with the stakes as high as they are for both Russia and Putin.
Don’t get me wrong; I’m team Russia no matter what come rain or shine, but I want to see sharp high-tech surveillance and ass-kicking manoeuvres in action all the way to the end.

Posted by: Circe | May 13 2022 21:30 utc | 61

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 20:50 utc | 52
“I don’t at all understand the objection to “taxi gossip” — my main concern is evaluating how representative such gossip might be of Russian sentiment.”
I don’t believe you made that clear. You simply referred to Doctorow’s article and said something about how the war is going in Russia.
“(1) This is heading to nuclear war quickly, in which case it’s better if Russia strikes first.”
First of all, that a taxi driver believes that, and more interestingly claimss that some people are urging Putin to “strike first”. is probably bullshit because we have no idea if he really has the connections he claims, or that his connections even have the connections they claim. Second, Putin and his team are running the government. They make the decisions and as in most countries the benighted people have very little actual say.
“(2) The first five days of the SMO were a disaster, because of corrupt and/or incompetent major generals, who had to be fired. “They should all be shot” the driver kept saying.”
Same problems. Where is the evidence? I’ve also heard that a bunch of FSB personnel – some 750 – were fired by Putin because they over-estimated the Ukrainians willingness to surrender. I think it was Martyanov who said something to the effect of “Oh,really? Fired 750 people? What would that do to the organization? What would happen if you fired 750 senior people at the FBI?” In other words, it was bullshit.
Where is the evidence of any “disaster” in the first five days? The Russian MoD reported a total of IIRC 498 casulties after a couple weeks. Martyanov made it clear that it was a very acceptable level of losses given the size of the operation.
This is random street gossip, nothing more, until evidence to the contrary surfaces.
Finally, Doctorow is quoting one person. Where is his evidence that this is the general impression of the Russian people? Has he done a poll? Not that it would be surprising to me that Russians are pissed off at Ukraine and the US and would probably want Putin to be more aggressive. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the hardliners, as represented on Russian talk shows from time to time, would like Putin to be more aggressive. But again, Putin and Shoigu and the General Staff are running the show and the fact that they aren’t concerned is demonstrated by the fact that there has not been any significant change in operations.
Yet again, I have to tell people to go listen to Martyanov’s Monday video where he explains how things work in a military operation and how such things are planned at the General Staff level. There is zero evidence that anything untoward is going on in this one that Russia can’t handle.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 21:30 utc | 63

Zed | May 13 2022 20:41 utc | 49
Use the ru version https://t.me/s/mod_russia

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2022 21:36 utc | 65

The house boy rings the Tuvan –
” at the initiative of the American side, Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu held telephone talks with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
◽️ Topical issues of international security, including the situation in Ukraine, were discussed.”
https://t.me/mod_russia/15704

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2022 21:46 utc | 67

Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 21:42 utc | 65
The Iranian strike on the US base in Iraq is something to keep in mind when looking at the US missile bases in Poland and Romania.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2022 21:52 utc | 69

@ Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 21:30 utc | 61, 62
My respect for Martyanov is unparalleled in the sense: I can’t tolerate anyone else’s talking-face “blog-post”. It’s a piss-poor communication technique, imho, but he says stuff in his jabbers which doesn’t show up in his text posts, so what can I do?
I also appreciate Doctorow’s gossip, though. No question which of the two is more reliable about Russian military sentiments and capabilities.
You previous post #61 “Clearly, the Pope’s no longer Catholic” has broken my heart, truly. After Benedict — the first Pope to ever resign in disgrace, so far as I know — I had some hope for Francis. Gullible as charged — what with his encyclical on climate and all. I’ve sensed this heartbreak sneaking up on me, one of many cognitive collateral wrecks ruining the life-stories of Western “leaders” — media, political, and even religious — because of this satanic war.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 21:53 utc | 71

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 21:53 u
“You previous post #61”
That was Karlof1, not me.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 21:56 utc | 73

Comment on https://t.me/polkovnik_hodarenok/2592 about some remark by Ben Hodges…

Ben Hodges, who used to command US and NATO forces in Europe, surfaced. He said something interesting, let’s take a look.
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to push Russia back to the borders that it occupied until February 23 by the end of summer. It is interesting what Hodges uses in drawing such conclusions. The grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the boiler – there are 65 thousand bayonets. About 35,000 more AFU soldiers have already been destroyed, totaling almost 100,000. This is half of the Ukrainian army.
2. They don’t have hundreds of thousands of new soldiers or new tanks ready to go into battle. Hodges seems to forget the word “rotation” and completely refuses to remember that Russia has not one battalion-tactical group, but four military districts, and only the troops of the Western District can grind the entire Baltic.
3. We are talking about weeks, as much work has been done by the United States and its allies to increase the potential of Ukraine in the coming weeks. This Hodges says against the backdrop of the fact that Senator Rand Paul has blocked sending $ 40 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
It’s like living in another world.

Indeed. And every time an LDR or Russian unit takes a hit, the sky is falling here.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 22:01 utc | 75

Another comment from https://t.me/polkovnik_hodarenok/2595 Telegram channel on the efficacy of Javelins…

As soon as the “Javelins” began to run out, the Ukrainians began to show the “results of the work.”
From their words, of course, everything is wonderful, but that’s what it is in reality.
1. Captured Colonel Baranyuk says that Javelins are useless: RPGs still work at medium and short distances.
2. In the “attack from above” mode, the Javelin cannot be used quickly. If the missile seeker has cooled down (it cools down for about one and a half to two minutes), and the target has gone out of sight, then the battery must be changed.
3. In most cases, the Armed Forces cannot prepare a rocket for firing – only 2 out of 10 shots are fired correctly.
Therefore, if I were the Ukrainians, I would be careful, after such a failure, they will not trust anything more complicated than a slingshot.
Well, as for the fake about the tank bursting with such a rocket, this is generally nonsense.
But the Poles brought the T-72 to Ukraine, and the soldiers of the LNR and the DNR have Javelins in commercial quantities. Here is the efficiency test.
#APU #Javelin

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 22:05 utc | 77

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2022 21:36 utc | 64
Thank you!

Posted by: Zed | May 13 2022 22:14 utc | 79

Yesterday I provided the crucial outtakes from Putin’s meeting on economic matters which was picked up and published by TASS:
“[Putin] noted that a number of countries are already encountering the threats of hunger and if the sanctions against Russia continue, the EU may also encounter consequences which would be difficult to reverse. ‘The blame for this entirely and completely rests with the elites of the Western countries who for the sake of preserving their global domination are ready to sacrifice the rest of the world,’ the Russian leader stated.” [My Emphasis]
We know China shares Putin’s analysis, and likely the EAEU/CIS/SCO/CSTO/RIC cluster does, but what of others beginning with the rest of RIC–BRICS–and ASEAN. Algeria with its becoming a defender of the UN Charter also understands, but what of the rest of Africa. And then there’s Latin America where Cuba and Venezuela are hip, Brazil’s Lula seems aware as does AMLO, but what of the rest? As with WW2, those nations allied in defending the UN Charter would be considered the Allies, while the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO vassals along with Japan must be considered the Fascist Axis. Can the Global South afford to wait until the UNGA in September to voice their solidarity? Will that meeting even take place given the location of the venue?
The world awaits the rollout of the new trading currency and related institutions which is the most powerful peaceful move they can make to protect themselves. Several respected voices said April, but it’s now the middle of May. Most nations cannot afford to wait.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2022 22:18 utc | 81

Reporting from Andrea Gagliarducci of Catholic News Agency, reprinted at The Pilot, “America’s oldest Catholic newspaper”:

Kirill told the pope that the present situation caused him “great pain.”
“My flock is on both sides of the conflict and most of them are Orthodox people,” he said. “Part of the opposing side are also among your flock. I would like therefore, leaving the geopolitical aspect to one side, to pose the question of how we and our Churches can influence the situation. How can we act together to bring peace to the hostile parties with the single aim of establishing peace and justice? It is very important in these conditions to avoid further escalation.”
In practice, the Patriarchate of Moscow asked Rome not to consider political and national events, while reserving the possibility of speaking to them and commenting on them — remaining, in essence, a profoundly national Church. This is a perspective that the pope and Holy See cannot accept: for Pope Francis, the conflict must be faced from a religious perspective, leaving politics aside.

http://www.thebostonpilot.com/article.php?ID=192362
The reporter unsurprisingly echoes Francis’s response to Kirill — that matters of state are imponderable for us clerics, we can only concentrate on Jesus. Of course it’s pretentious nonsense, but the pretense itself reflects a gulf of understanding, growing wider, between Francis and whichever other religious leaders he feels impelled to insult, lately.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 22:29 utc | 83

@ circumspect, Aleph_Null & karlof1 – KFJC 89.7fm is still around. They used to broadcast Mae Brussell’s World Watchers International and Dave Emory’s One Step Beyond. I obsessively listened to it in my misspent youth. And KPOO 89.5fm is still around in SF.
I miss the Lobster on KSJO.

Posted by: lex talionis | May 13 2022 22:31 utc | 85

@Richard Steven Hack
“Gruff thinks it requires a nuclear event to ‘break the escalation cycle’. I disagree. I think Russia will use the ‘cauldron’ approach – raise the pain dial incrementally until the West collapses internally from a failure of the will. This seems evident in the steps Russia has taken in the economic sphere so far.”
Eventually a demonstration test of an extremely large hydrogen bomb in the far north of Russia may become wise, with plenty of notice to the world, and lots of camera angles, so people are shocked into their senses. It would get the kind of worldwide attention the moon landing did, and could remind people what’s at stake, settling everyone down. There’s also a risk it does the opposite, of course.

Posted by: line islands | May 13 2022 22:34 utc | 87

From now on Pope Frank, for me, is:

NATO’s altar boy.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 13 2022 22:38 utc | 89

firefox is working better then brave browser at moa… since yesterday moa posting and reading has kind of gone bonkers… removing brave browser in the mix seems to fix it..

Posted by: james | May 13 2022 22:41 utc | 91

Kadath @ 30
Mearsheimer is recognizable and judging by the blue and yellow level in Hyde Park/University of Chicago he cannot safely speak freely. Whatever he thinks he had better not say it. If I were him it would be sabbatical time.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 13 2022 22:50 utc | 93

Part 3 of Ryber analysis…

Chronicle of the battles near Belogorovka and the defeat of the column of the RF Armed Forces at the crossing – Part 3
On May 11-12, units of the allied forces from Kremennaya and Rubizhnoye were transferred to the assault on Privolye to the Russian forces remaining on the western bank of the river. Fighting in this area continues.
When evaluating the events described, some authors wonder how such a quantity of equipment was collected on the active sector of the front that they managed to cover with one blow. Others are trying to analyze the UAV footage and find on the record the vehicles of the NM of the LPR or the Armed Forces of Ukraine in general.
We will note only a few points. Even if we imagine that the BMP-1 NM of the LPR and even several Ukrainian armored vehicles really got on the footage, the essence remains the same: most of the lost equipment can definitely be attributed to the RF Armed Forces.
Judging by the photo, some part of the abandoned equipment can be repaired and put into operation in the future. Even taking into account losses in equipment, some units of the RF Armed Forces still managed to cross to the other side. However, their advancement without bringing new units into battle will be difficult.
We will refrain from making value judgments about responsible officials and hope that the command will independently and promptly draw all the necessary conclusions and take appropriate decisions.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | May 13 2022 22:52 utc | 95

Rybar Telegram channel predicts a Ukrainian offensive of 15,000 troops in preparation…

In order to restore control over the right-bank part of the Dnieper, an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being prepared by the forces of the 28th and 60th OMB in the Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog directions.
Personnel have been rotated, territorial defense reinforcements have arrived, and Western-made weapons and ammunition have been delivered.
Systematic artillery shelling of positions of the RF Armed Forces in Vysokole and Knyazevka is underway.
Tactical planes and army aviation helicopters operate daily from the airfields of Dolgintsevo and Alexandria.
Reconnaissance and target designation is carried out by the Leleka and Bayaraktar UAVs from the Kanatovo airfield.
In total, it is planned to involve more than 15 thousand people in the offensive.
Probably, it will take place simultaneously with the counteroffensive in the direction of Aleksnadrovka.
#Krivoy Rog #Nikolaev #Ukraine
@rybar

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 13 2022 23:00 utc | 97

@Aleph_Null #52
Putin may have driven a cab for a time in the bad old days of the 1990s, but an even slightly connected GRU dude has no reason to be doing so unless:
1) His role in the GRU was janitor or some such.
2) He has other, serious undisclosed problems which might or might not be of his own doing.
Anyway, my view is that it is simply a data point, nothing more, just as this bridge crossing situation is a data point.
Last I checked, Ukraine is fighting this conflict all out.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that they are contesting Russian/LDPR/Chechen military activity.
If anything, the “contesting” shows that Russia is, in fact, still on the offensive.
Mercouris noted that a British armored combat expert looked at the video and was of the opinion that most of the vehicles were not, in fact, combat destroyed but were demo’d to prevent capture and reuse and that Russian casualties were maybe 100, while Russian sources apparently are saying 50.
There is nothing about either of these numbers that would cause Russia or the overall momentum of the conflict to change.

Posted by: c1ue | May 13 2022 23:05 utc | 99