Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 11, 2022

Ukraine - Congress Passes The Bucks, Realism Sneaks In, Poland Plans For More War

After a lot of talk about defeating Russia in the Ukraine and an alleged lack of Russian fighting abilities Congress passed another $40 billion fund for weapons and economic support. That brings the total to some $53 billion for Ukraine.

Most of the money will go to the U.S. weapon industry, the CIA and to various Ukrainian oligarchs. Hardly anything will be received by those in need.

With that packet now passed reality is allowed to sneak into U.S. media reporting on the issue.

Not one but two reports in the New York Times suddenly lament about the huge area of land the Russian troops have taken in east Ukraine:

From the later:

Nonetheless, the Donbas seizure, combined with the Russian invasion’s early success in seizing parts of southern Ukraine adjoining the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, gives the Kremlin enormous leverage in any future negotiation to halt the conflict.

And the Russians enjoy the added advantage of naval dominance in the Black Sea, the only maritime route for Ukrainian trade, which they have paralyzed with an embargo that could eventually starve Ukraine economically and is already contributing to a global grain shortage.

I have often pointed out that the Ukrainian frontline will have a huge number of casualties from Russian artillery strikes. It is even worse than I had thought:

At the main hospital in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk, ambulances stream in day and night, carrying soldiers wounded at the front, who describe being pinned down by near constant shelling.

About 80 percent of the patients are wounded by explosives such as mines and artillery shells, said Capt. Eduard Antonovskyy, the deputy commander of the medical unit at the hospital. Because of this, he said, very few patients have serious injuries. Either you’re far enough from an explosion to survive or you aren’t, he said.

“We either get moderate injuries or deaths,” Captain Antonovskyy said.

Additional to those more realistic reports the NYT allowed one of it authors to write an opinion piece against the widening of the war:

At first, the Western support for Ukraine was mainly designed to defend against the invasion. It is now set on a far grander ambition: to weaken Russia itself. Presented as a common-sense response to Russian aggression, the shift, in fact, amounts to a significant escalation.

By expanding support to Ukraine across the board and shelving any diplomatic effort to stop the fighting, the United States and its allies have greatly increased the danger of an even larger conflict. They are taking a risk far out of step with any realistic strategic gain.
When I was in Ukraine during the first weeks of the war, even staunch Ukrainian nationalists expressed views far more pragmatic than those that are routine in America now. Talk of neutral status for Ukraine and internationally monitored plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhansk has been jettisoned in favor of bombast and grandstanding.
What’s more, the invasion has led directly to greater military spending in second- and third-tier European powers. The number of NATO troops in Eastern Europe has grown tenfold, and a Nordic expansion of the organization is likely. A general rearmament of Europe is taking place, driven not by desire for autonomy from American power but in service to it. For the United States, this should be success enough. It is unclear what more there is to gain by weakening Russia, beyond fantasies of regime change.
Diplomatic efforts ought to be the centerpiece of a new Ukraine strategy. Instead, the war’s boundaries are being expanded and the war itself recast as a struggle between democracy and autocracy, in which the Donbas is the frontier of freedom. This is not just declamatory extravagance. It is reckless. The risks hardly need to be stated.

Indeed. The current U.S. strategy will end in a catastrophe for Ukraine because it is based on false narratives. Lt.Col. (ret) Daniel Davis has consistently provided a more realist view of the military situation in Ukraine. His latest piece fits that record:

Over the past few days, a flurry of senior leaders in both Ukraine and Washington have issued defiant claims of not merely resisting Russian aggression, but pushing towards outright victory. While such aspirations are entirely understandable, it is unwise to set policy seeking a preferred outcome if there does not exist a rational path by which Ukraine could accomplish that objective. At present, most indicators, fundamentals of war, and current battlefield trendlines support the prospect of a Ukrainian defeat.

Davis correctly describes the current military situation on the ground and concludes:

By continuing to seek a military victory in Ukraine, Ukraine’s troops will continue fighting, no negotiated settlement will be realistically sought, and most likely Russian troops continue making progress. As a result, more Ukrainian civilians and troops will continue to be killed and wounded, more cities destroyed, and the economic and food crises – for both Ukraine and the world – will worsen. The most likely outcome will not change (a negotiated settlement, not a Ukrainian military victory), but the cost to Kyiv will be much, much worse.

Another former military man who has a realist view of the war is Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret). During the first Gulf war he led a unit in the Battle of 73 Easting:

Macgregor was the "squadron operations officer who essentially directed the Battle of 73 Easting" during the Gulf War. Facing an Iraqi Republican Guard opponent, he led a contingent consisting of 19 tanks, 26 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and 4 M1064 mortar carriers through the sandstorm to the 73 Easting at roughly 16:18 hours on 26 February 1991 destroyed almost 70 Iraqi armored vehicles with no U.S. casualties in a 23-minute span of the battle.

The previously quoted Lt.Col. Davis was wounded in the same battle. As both men have seen real mechanized war it is not by chance that they have come to similar conclusions.

Macgregor warns of a widening of the war through a Polish intervention in west Ukraine which would eventually drag NATO into the war:

Why would Poland, with the help of Lithuania, try to take western Ukraine? It is all about history:

The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, formally known as the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and, after 1791, as the Commonwealth of Poland, was a country and bi-federation of Poland and Lithuania ruled by a common monarch in real union, who was both King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. It was one of the largest and most populous countries of 16th to 17th-century Europe. At its largest territorial extent, in the early 17th century, the Commonwealth covered almost 1,000,000 km2 (400,000 sq mi) and as of 1618 sustained a multi-ethnic population of almost 12 million.

Here is how that commonwealth looked on a map with current borders:


There have been talks for a while that Poland would send a 'peacekeeping' force to occupy Galicia in west-Ukraine. I for one predicted it on February 24, at the very onset of the war:

Thanks to Stalin's additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine's western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.

An official looking document now says that a Polish/Lithuanian operation will start on May 22-24.

Lord Of War @lord_of_war____ - 14:46 UTC · May 10, 2022
🇺🇦🇵🇱The document was sent to the President of the State Border Service of Ukraine, Serhiy Daynek, stating that it is 22-24. May joint "Lithuanian-Polish peacekeeping contingent" consisting of 4 battalions, 9,500 soldiers and 279 units of military equipment  [planned to enter the territory of Ukraine. Another confirmation of the development of plans for the occupation and further division of the country. Even if this particular document turns out to be false (which is not excluded), it does not change the general course of the West in relation to Ukraine.]

9.500 soldiers are way more than fit into 4 battalions. A battalion has typically some 400-800 soldiers. These are more like three small brigades with 3-4 battalions each.

A Polish/Lithuanian move is exactly what Col. Macgregor is warning of:

Ten weeks after the conflict began, it is instructive to re-examine the strategic picture. The war against Russia in Ukraine has evolved, but not in the way Western observers predicted. Ukrainian forces look shattered and exhausted. The supplies reaching Ukrainian troops fighting in Eastern Ukraine are a fraction of what is needed. In most cases, replacements and new weapons are destroyed long before they reach the front.

Confronted with the unambiguous failure of U.S. assistance and the influx of new weapons to rescue Ukrainian forces from certain destruction, the Biden administration is desperate to reverse the situation and save face. Poland seems to offer a way out. More important, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have both expressed the desire to erase the borders between Poland and Ukraine.

Unconfirmed reports from Warsaw indicate that after Washington rejected the proposals for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, along with the transfer of Polish MIG-29 aircrafts to Ukrainian pilots, the Polish general staff was quietly instructed to formulate plans for intervention in the Ukrainian conflict by seizing the western part of Ukraine. Naturally, military action of this scale would require Kiev’s approval, but given Washington’s de facto control of the Zelensky government, approval for Polish military intervention should not be a problem.

Presumably, the Biden administration may hope that a collision involving Russians and Poles in any form—including air and missile strikes against Polish forces on the Ukrainian side of the border—would potentially call for the NATO council to meet and address Article V of the NATO treaty.

It would mean that NATO, or at least major parts of it, would actively join the Ukrainian proxy war against Russia. While I believe that Russia has withheld forces from the current war to eventually defend against NATO, any entry of it into the war would significantly extend the fighting and the danger of a nuclear exchange would become imminent.

Posted by b on May 11, 2022 at 15:43 UTC | Permalink

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What is really delusional thinking is how a bunch of stupid, lazy Marxist negroes and Jews think their going to defeat Russia.

Posted by: Obamavirus | May 11 2022 19:32 utc | 101

Down South (33) writes:
|Ukraine with the second largest army in NATO, after 8 years of being pumped full of the latest weaponry and training has been pretty much dismantled by Russia in two and a half months.|

I'm going to go against popular opinion here and say that if the Ukrainian army was being routed there would be undeniable video evidence of this happening and the MSM would be in extreme panic mode while Zelensky and friends would be ratcheting up their NATO NATO help us! rhetoric significantly. As it stands the dug in Ukrainian forces are being slowly chipped away at and destroyed and Russia still has the advantage but thinking that the entire Ukrainian army has been "pretty much dismantled" is wishful fanboy thinking.

I am going to say something else that will be unpopular here. Namely that in wartime every side exaggerates their opponents losses and bigs up their own achievements. Russian war propaganda is not nearly as egregious and unhinged as the stuff being produced by and for Ukraine but only a fool would take it completely at face value. Sorry, there is no kinder way of putting that. Where there is war there is propaganda. That's just a truism and has nothing to do with where one's sympathies lie.

My hope, personally, is that Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine and checks the US empire's aggression and its fever dream of a forever monopolar world. I am also a realist and will call it as I see it and try to be as objective as possible when assessing this war. The chances of Ukraine winning a strategic victory, even with NATO help, are slim. Russia will continue to dominate Ukrainian forces and keep them occupied dodging and being blown up by artillery shells, rockets and missiles. If Zelensky's handlers don't urge him to sue for peace the country of Ukraine will be ground into dust.

How and when this war will end and how much damage Russia and its NATO opponents will suffer economically and militarily, and what the balance of power will look like afterwards, remains to be seen. If this war is like almost every other war in history there will be unexpected shifts and surprises that at this early stage are difficult to predict.

That sums up my assessment to date. I will leave the detailed predictions, the cheerleading and the hopium smoking to others.

Posted by: darren price | May 11 2022 19:32 utc | 102

What went wrong in 1939 was the British/French guarantee to Poland when they were in no position to defend her, which led Poland to refuse to come to terms with Hitler and enter a war that she had no chance of winning.

Perhaps Britain and France were right to go to war at that time, but to cause Poland to sacrifice herself in that way was a disgrace.

Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2022 19:36 utc | 103

I can hardly believe that Zelensky is OK with a de facto Polish invasion and worse, cancelation of borders. Still, this could benefit Russia. The new Polish protectorate could negotiate with Russia for an end to the war - when Zelensky can't. There are claims that a surprising number of EU nations want their troops to enter Ukraine. Furthermore, such an arrangement compromises the standards of EU/US and its BS about borders and sovereignty. Would make it more difficult to argue against Donbas and Crimea in Russian hands.

Frankly, this could solve the problem of Russia getting stuck with western Ukraine that's hostile, if conquered. Unfortunately, rump Ukraine would become NATO by osmosis.

They ought to talk to Orban and see if he wants a piece of the action, Romania too.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 11 2022 19:39 utc | 104

Now this is going to be really serious now. --> Russia REVEALS ALL in Bombshell BioLabs Briefing

seems like there is much shit going on in Ukraine so that western powers were so desperate in saving it from further direct investigations.

Posted by: Rasta | May 11 2022 19:42 utc | 105

Posted by Postat av: psychohistorian | 11 maj 2022 16:16 utc | 4
About focusing more on reality than "isms".

But if the reality is explained by for example marxism, why say no to it? As the signature "6079 SmithW" writes as a comment under an interview with the marxist economist Michael Hudson on The Saker "...No surprise the Chinese and Russians like Michael Hudson based on their own historical experience and in-depth understanding of Marxist political economy both Russia and China have been enormously succesful in making capitalism "work" rationally and profitably, according to its own logic.It was V.I.Lenin who advocated in 1921 a "New Economic Policy" that was intended to quickly transform the backward Russian economy by introducing free market capitalism under state control, However, it was The Sovjets, the council of workers and soldiers - and not the Party - that constituted the revolutionary base on which the new socialist state power was established...."

Posted by: Northern Eve | May 11 2022 19:45 utc | 106

Posted by: bevin | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 93

"Anyone interested in such questions as the origins of the War in 1939 and subsequent years, the foreign policies of Sweden and Finland and the many right wing attempts to remove Churchill as Prime Minister should read it."

Thanks for this excellent account showing how many different interests, many often competing with each other, plus ordinary random happenstance go into karmic unfoldings especially on levels affecting entire nations with millions of people.

What might have happened if Hess could have hit the designated landing strip as planned? Of course we shall never know.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 19:47 utc | 107

Thx for the link, Bevin.

Yes, there was pro-peace, anti-war, and pro-appeasement, whatever you like, on both sides of the pond.

Lindbergh and Ford being the two most prominent anti-war voices in the U.S. at the time arguably. Both saw their reputations tarnished when the pro-war and internationalist-bankster class won out and the U.S. saved the Soviets with lend-lease.

You honestly never ask yourself what would have happened if the U.S. and the U.K. had sought peace that we might not have found ourselves as we currently do in the shadow of global nuclear war?

Russia is giving a second go at breaking the globalists' back. I will continue to pray for Russia'a success.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 19:48 utc | 108

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 92

...So far, it's going the way they want, imo, including the economic destruction of Western Europe....


It seems pointless discussing various indicators of defeat or victory without first defining what the belligerents' strategic objectives are. In fact, we should also clearly identify the belligerents themselves. I would argue that Ukraine isn't a side per se but merely an instrument of the UK/US and satellites.

In my opinion, body counts, materiel scores or shifting battle fronts are pointless metrics in this conflict. Russia could sweep all the way through to Krakow and it would still be a strategic gain for the Empire. To state the obvious, the destruction would be (is) exclusively European. Furthermore, a seemingly victorious roll deep into enemy territory would certainly guarantee a deep hatred and a durable divide through the heart of the Empire's principal prospective competitor. This strategic undermining is working well so far.

Conversely, and for the sake of argument, pulling back to 2014 lines, or even pre 2014 lines, would be a catastrophic loss for the Empire were it paired with consolidated relations between Europe and Asia. A peaceful, integrated, continent trading resources, products and services would leave poor Uncle Sam sitting sour-faced on top of his dying extortion ring.

"What cannot be owned, must be broken." So goes the Imperial variant to the famed pottery barn rule.

Posted by: robin | May 11 2022 19:50 utc | 109

Posted by: bevin | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 93

For some more contemporary shenanigans involving the British and affecting the current Ukraine gambit:

"This is the British hand behind the current phase of Russiagate 5.0 which has come closer to its objectives of running an American coup than at any other moment during the past four years. This is the vision of a dystopic post-nation state world order managed by misanthropic technocrats who wish to lord over a technetronic feudal dark age in the 21st century and beyond."

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 19:53 utc | 110

Scorpion and @ 79 morongobill

Historical grievances could well be at play, but for me as a Canadian it’s all theoretical. Have no idea how much of that is at play except when it touches Canada’s shores like with the British and Dutch monarchies.

Andrei Martyanov in one of his videos said that if Poland did try to take some land from Ukraine, the plans would have been in the works for years. And they would be coordinated with and approved by Russia, on a back channel. (PR aside - anyone who’s watched his videos knows how dismissive he is of the PR campaigns.)

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | May 11 2022 19:55 utc | 111

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | May 11 2022 17:15 utc | 29

I tend to agree with your assessment. The fact that the US will use a Polish incursion, whatever the Poles want by doing it, to further aggression against Russia. This is the reason I think Russia will attack the Poles in Ukraine, but not in Poland, at some point - if not at the point of their incursion, then later when Russia is done with Donbass. Meanwhile, I do expect missile strikes at Polish forces this side of the border from the start of the incursion.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 19:57 utc | 112

A most interesting development.

As for Euro gas shortages. Norway is maxed out. BoJo Land's North Sea Oil/Gas field is in decline. As is the country it self.

I constantly hear the word go Nuclear. Sadly these armchair experts are completely clueless.

They usually spout total regurgitated simplified ideas of stupid. Completely devoid of the real costs from the real world. Plus the time required to build the plant. Order custom made equipment. Regular annual Fuel rod replacement costs. Storage cost of spent fuel rods. Safe secure storage of low level waste for 20K plus years. PS yet none mention the most polluted and badly degraded "Hanford" , Washington State, US military Nuclear Waste dump.

Finally, the usable amount of a small finite reserve of Uranium, That is available to fuel this dead end technology.

A classic example is in Finland. Initial cost three billion Euro's in 2005. This also included a secure large scale on site nuclear waste storage facility.

The costs has blown out to eight and half billion Euro's and is running well behind schedule.... Final grid connection was scheduled for all three reactors online is July, 2022.

Far cry from the nineteen fifties claim. Electricity generated by Nuclear Power is too cheap to meter.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 11 2022 19:58 utc | 113

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:36 utc | 38
"Poland has no intent to go to war directly with Russia, but instead against severely weakened Ukraine in the aim to achieve a land grab."

Which, of course, doesn't mean they won't end up in a war with Russia.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 20:03 utc | 114

Lucci | May 11 2022 19:04 utc | 84

My thought is maximum extent would be up to the Dneiper - Kiev. I don't think Russia would agree to that. Lviv/Galicia though - the bandera nationalists would then be fighting on two fronts. But who knows, they would probably be too dumb to realize they are once again ruled by the Poles.

That Russia has spoken about this but has given no warning to Poland/Lithuania is telling.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 11 2022 20:04 utc | 115

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 17:44 utc | 46

Agreed. Using the term Mercouris likes, this will become another "debacle."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 20:08 utc | 116

I'm still a bit perplexed as to how Russia is going to ensure that western Ukraine is militarily neutralized long-term. Ukraine as a stronger country was unable to be kept free of NATO influence. As a weaker (rump) state how would this happen? IF Russia annexes the Donbass (and the south of Ukraine) it seems like Russia's borders would then be closer to a NATO force: Donbass was essentially a buffer zone.

I'm one to think that there's a good chance that Ukraine won't exist anymore and that that means either Russia takes control (annexes) all of Ukraine OR it's broken up such that there's an almost certain bet that Poland will pick up some of western Ukraine. And thinking about this, how comfortable would the Poles be to have Russian troops right on their border? NATO or no NATO: keeping in mind that Russia won't tolerate any threats from here on out- Poland would be turned to glass in an instant. It would seem that in the face of neoliberalism collapsing and the western economies being sunk that gaining real estate before the music stops might be a good enough deal for the Poles: I think that if not an agreed upon outcome that it's on the table (all options need to be in order to understand how they would play out).

As has been noted, there's the economic issue of repayment of the [silly] lend-lease scam. If Ukraine ceases to exist then it's a write-off. US can use money it stole from Russia; it can, as it always does, steal from its taxpayers. I believe that this is the story line that will play out. MIC gets its money (need to restock!). "Leaders" get to grab more power: e.g. "Disinformation Board" and other such nonsense aimed at cracking down on dissent (which will escalate as the economic wind-down fully sets in). Europe is mucked- will have to suck up monetary losses from the military scam (would the US throw a bone or two? ha ha!), from having to go with LNG and for increases in alms to NATO (primarily US war contractors).

The wild card lies in the US mid-term elections. As both parties support death and destruction the democrat party has to find some way to shift votes to themselves and I'm not seeing there being anything to save them (there's the abortion issue, but this won't do it). Risking nuclear war for mid-term elections seems a bridge too far: there are still enough sane heads in the Pentagon that I just don't see them stepping over that line.

Posted by: Seer | May 11 2022 20:08 utc | 117

Which, of course, doesn't mean they won't end up in a war with Russia.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 20:03 utc | 114

The theory involves some secret (for now) negotiations between Poland or even NATO functionaries and Russia. The only way they'll end up in a war for sending "peacekeepers" into an area of Ukraine that is not currently a target of Russia, which Russia does not wish to occupy - ever - or for areas that have already been demilitarized* is if Russia chooses to attack them. But that would be in contravention of whatever secret agreement *might* be in place. Again, it's a theory to explain what on its surface looks like an incredibly stupid move, even for Poland with goading by FUKUS/NATO.

*I don't think the maps we've seen so far depict which air defense and other military systems have been destroyed, just Russian troop advances and they're all in the eastern region of the country.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 20:12 utc | 118

@NemesisCalling #49
I've been busy with last minute, pre-deposition prep for a case plus some personal vacation travel.

As for Russia: I don't believe Russia is either omnipotent or omniscient, but it doesn't require either to understand just what the US and EU have actually been providing to Ukraine.

If Poland "enters" Ukraine to "peace keep", Russia has been 100% clear as to what the response will be. Putin and Russia have followed through with every single promise they have made thus far, no reason to think differently.

As for the prospect of a wider war: I see zero evidence of that so far. I don't see American heavy armored divisions routing into Europe. I don't see repositioning of aircraft carriers. I don't see even mobilization with Poland - their 9600 man proposed expeditionary force is right up there with the American troops serving as a tripwire in South Korea.

Yes, wise people all recognize that any conflict between NATO and Russian troops has the potential to escalate into a greater conflict. The morons in this equation will be Poland if they indeed choose to stick their noses in - doubly so because it then gives Russia the right to strike directly at one of the anti-missile bases which Russia is so very upset about, that is on Polish soil.

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 20:16 utc | 119

The end game of Ukraine is what has me concerned. Your analysis seems accurate from the information we currently can access. The steps taken resembles so many past conflicts like America's incremental material and advisory support in South Vietnam which led to all out war.

Russia has surprised the analysts by how they have waged this operation in Ukraine from reading articles years prior to this event. Will the U.S. and E.U. really sit back after all the Russian sanctions and after dumping so many resources (equipment and money) into Ukraine just to watch it collapse and their debt slave go up in smoke?

Posted by: Prometheus | May 11 2022 20:20 utc | 120

Re: Polish "peacekeeping" and Russia - it strikes me that if Poland enters Ukraine for whatever reason, as a NATO member Poland is then doing exactly what NATO has been so high and mighty about Russia - invading the sacred sovereign territory of a neighbor - at which point the entire moral edifice of the West's howling will be exposed for what it is. All these discussions lead me to wonder if it will and must be the West to first use nukes, as the weeks pass and the Western hysteria rises and rises.


Posted by: Boomheist | May 11 2022 19:17 utc | 95

Absolutely correct -- and absolutely irrelevant. Never forget, never NEVER forget, that "it's okay when we do it." That applies to (among other things) terrorism, to torture, to predatory resource war and territorial conquest, to the development and use of ABC weapons, and even to genocide.

Posted by: malenkov | May 11 2022 20:22 utc | 121

Posted by: darren price | May 11 2022 19:32 utc | 102

I'm going to go against popular opinion here and say that if the Ukrainian army was being routed there would be undeniable video evidence of this happening and the MSM would be in extreme panic mode while Zelensky and friends would be ratcheting up their NATO NATO help us! rhetoric significantly. As it stands the dug in Ukrainian forces are being slowly chipped away at and destroyed and Russia still has the advantage but thinking that the entire Ukrainian army has been "pretty much dismantled" is wishful fanboy thinking.

RF doesn't allow a bunch of video releases as that hampers operations. This isn't a movie for us to watch. There are plenty of independent video clips out there that unequivocally show RF is doing exactly as it says it was intending to do: just not of the Donbass operations (more direct fighting in which case anything that moves is killed; elsewhere there were more civilians, and reporters have more protection in such locations).

MSM isn't chanting for NATO lest it gets what it wishes for, and that will mean their very own destruction. It's good enough to make billions of dollars from the sufferings of others, that's their number one goal, and they're winning here big time.

The Ukrainian forces are immobilized. As a "military" they're done: that was assured within the first few days as Russia established full control of the airspace. All that is left is to mop up.

The MAP shows all that one needs to see, for it is THE true story.

Posted by: Seer | May 11 2022 20:25 utc | 122

@Tom_Q_Collins #59
Solar PV and wind do produce electricity, but they simply do not work above 10% in utility scale base load electricity generation.

The setup you have installed - are you fully off grid? As in willing to go without electricity at night? Or if the sun isn't shining for 2 or 3 days straight? If not, then you are doing nothing but prepaying a fraction of your electricity use for the 20 year lifetime of the solar PV panels.

The alternative energy scam part is multifold:
1) that alternative energy produces electricity anywhere remotely close to fossil fuel generation at the same name plate generation number. Solar PV is 20% or well under in Europe; Wind is 35% and wildly variable vs. 60% to 80% plus for coal, natural gas or nuclear plants.
2) that alternative energy production can exist without 100% fossil fuel backup, or an as yet nonexistent medium term (i.e. up to 2 weeks) affordable storage capacity, because none of the alternative energy technologies being installed today are reliable in any sense of the word.

So nice that you can afford to install a solar PV array that reduces your electricity production - as in both the capital cost and the house to stick it on.

Are you getting feed-in tariffs above the $0.02 to $0.08 wholesale electricity price? If so, this is legislated economic discrimination against everyone else on the same utility grid.

Did you get a tax break or outright subsidy on the capital cost? Ditto as above.

Unsurprisingly, these types of benefits accrue mostly to moderately to very wealthy people. It is nothing more than a thinly disguised subsidy to the more and most wealthy.

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 20:25 utc | 123

@NemesisCalling #71
The only parts of Western Ukraine that don't have lots of Polish speaking natives, are those who speak Slovakian, Hungarian, or some other language.
I don't know where you get your information from, but I know people who literally own houses in and lived in Ivano-Frenkel, for example.

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 20:30 utc | 124

Russia doesn't want NATO getting closer to its borders. So why would they allow Poland to gobble up huge space in the west for new bases to be established there. Wouldn't that negate one of Putin's key strategic goals. It would also give NATO airspace to launch sorties supposedly in defence of Ukraine. It makes no geopolitical sense. All this effort just to bring NATO closer?. I dont see it happening. Whatever is left of Ukraine after the completion of the SMO will be pacified and denazified. Neutral and compliant without an army or Airforce or even a coast to operate a navy. Otherwise what was the whole point?. Just a show of force that cost so many precious lives.

Posted by: DaVinci | May 11 2022 20:39 utc | 125

Lex | May 11 2022 17:28 utc | 34

thanks for your comments... it makes no sense for poland to enter ukraine unless they want money from the usa, like ukraine is getting here - as @stonebird suggests in a tongue and cheek way... but russia will not bomb poland.. they will bomb the polish inside ukraine... putin has said such... i believe he is a person of his word..

WJ | May 11 2022 17:56 utc | 55

it doesn't make sense for poland to go into ukraine, even if the usa is putting them up to it...they are going to discover that like @ Lysias | May 11 2022 19:36 utc | 103 points out in ww2, the usa is not going to come in and help them here either... and i agree with @ Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 19:57 utc | 112 assessment on this topic too.. poland would be crazy to go into ukraine... maybe they are crazy like the usa-uk neo cons, but they are in a much more dangerous place here bordering ukraine... they best stay in poland..

@ c1ue ... good to see you back..

i like this guys overview.. @ roger pointed him out earlier... Post-Victory Day Update for Russian Military Ops in Ukraine basically russian methodology is slow and steady...

Posted by: james | May 11 2022 20:44 utc | 126

At the beginning of Russia's military action in Ukraine I thought Putin would/should offer the portion of territory formerly part of Poland to the current fascist regime there as a means to sow division between NATO members. Hungary probably also covets its former territory and may have already planned to recover it.

Unleashing nationalism in Eastern Europe was a terrible mistake by the US war complex and may lead to a reconfiguration of Ukraine's eastern borders as well as additional conflicts between the nations which have adopted ethnic nationalism as their ideology.

Posted by: Wilikens | May 11 2022 20:48 utc | 127

This isn’t pre WW1 or WW2, Polish leaders aren’t statesmen and have no agency or self determination whatsoever. They are managers for the USA/UK/NATO/WEF and whatever else you want to add. Even if that weren’t true any Polish presence as peace keepers or annexers in UKR would need air cover. Any compromise on the no fly zone would be end to the RF presence in the UKR or WW3. There can be no tacit 19th century backroom agreement btwn any of the parties NATO, UK, USA, Poland and RF, shuffled around in any conspiratorial combination, even if signed before GOD the accord would be betrayed by the West before the ink was dry.

Any crack in the no fly zone would be pried fully open. Whatever the “Polish manuever” will be it’s a trap, in any form, arm chair generalled in any form, no matter how historically referenced and fascinating, it’s a trap and nothing more, the Russians won’t be fooled. Putin warned that any strategic threat to RF forces will be answered immediately will full force. This is what he was talking about.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2022 20:51 utc | 128

A possible compromise solution is for Russia to allow Poland to take West Ukraine, so long as Poland leaves NATO.

Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2022 20:56 utc | 129

Seer @117--

You raise some good points. First, about Russia and its declared security minimums--NATO is rolled back to its 1997 status or better yet implodes and goes Kaput--and the reinstitution of the Indivisible Security concept once approved several times over by all OSCE members and forms the basis for global security as arranged in UN Charter. Note what appear to be Russia's restated goals--elimination of USA's quest for Unipolarity and resurrection of the UN and its Charter to the status it was intended to have by FDR, Stalin, and most of the world. Examining the relationship between the Outlaw US Empire, NATO and EU must admit the latter two being agents of the Empire to thwart Europeans actual interests and replace them with the Empire's. To crush the quest for unipolarity, Russia and Europeans must declare NATO and EU as dead institutions and return to their previous status as independent nations. Then there's the additional hegemonic institutions that are also agents of the Outlaw US Empire--IMF, World Bank, BIS, SWIFT, and the global tentacles of Wall Street and the US Fed which are dependent on Dollar Hegemony. Much of that can be cured by the erection of a new global financial structure with new currency and institutions, some of which already exist--mainly the recent formation of Development Banks aimed at servicing the Global South's needs.

Will there be a Ukraine in the future? IMO, yes, centered around Kiev and extending to its West. But for several decades that will function as a Russian colony as the process of Denazification unfolds over the several generations it will take to purge it as much as possible from the region's historical memory. There is the possibility of what Putin floated--Decommunization, which implies the severing of what was added to Ukraine by Lenin and Stalin to be reabsorbed by their historical "parents." However, I see difficulties with that as it conflicts with the two stated SMO aims, particularly Denazification. Further, whatever debts the current Ukraine owes to the West will be cancelled as being odious.

Then there're the political affects within the Outlaw US Empire due to blowback from failed policies and quest for Full Spectrum Dominance. IMO, the Duopoly is unreformable and large sections of the federal government are infected by CIA-based fascists. What IMO needs to happen versus what's most likely to happen over the rest of this decade are lightyears apart. What must occur is structural/institutional/doctrinal change at the federal level and also within the corporate sector, particularly media. Unfortunately, those are what the Deep State uses to exert its control. IMO, time is required to erode the Deep State and also raise the critical mass of citizens to finally gain control of Washington and Wall Street. The domestic situation will be greatly influenced by the international Geoeconomic situation and related parasitism of internal Neoliberalism. However, IMO the people aren't 100% helpless--state charted public banks are the most potent weapon the public can employ that doesn't require winning political offices.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 21:01 utc | 130

@ Lysias | May 11 2022 20:56 utc | 129

so the question is who does bribery the best? lol... i don't think russia thinks that way.. the west definitely thinks that way.. maybe poland is like a ukrainian oligarch trying to see who the highest bidder is here..

Posted by: james | May 11 2022 21:05 utc | 131

Lysias @129--

That would be a curious quid pro quo, but just as vulnerable to the Minsk Accords to being disobeyed--is Poland agreement capable in Russia's eyes? And if it did, NATO would still be in the Baltics abutting Russia's border.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 21:09 utc | 132

A possible compromise solution is for Russia to allow Poland to take West Ukraine, so long as Poland leaves NATO

Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2022 20:56 utc | 129

Again, Poland has no agency. None nada. No one in modern EU does.

On a relevant note, I seem to be the only one here or in the real world truly freaked about Finland Sweden joining NATO. It's not the act itself so much as the rush, and not even the rush but the acceleration. Finland and Sweden keep advancing their NATO join date with no public or parliamentary discussion which was completely shut down from the start. But as Russian victories accelerate so does the join date, that tells you something. The reason there is no discussion permitted on such a critical national issue is obvious, the leaders of Sweden and Finland, as rest of EU leaders, were told explicitly by the USA this is WW3, we are going all in, you are either with us or our enemy, no fence sitting, and you don’t want to be our enemy.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2022 21:11 utc | 133

I just can't resist posting this snippet from Chung's article:

"Castro’s Cuba was considered unacceptable for the very plain reason that he was upsetting the status quo of how 'business' was supposed to be done. There was a lot of money that was lost for big business with Castro’s takeover, not just for Lansky’s Syndicate but for such Fortune 500 names as United Fruit Company, U.S. Steel, DuPont and Standard Oil (among many others) which tells you something about the real sort of business these companies are involved in."

And that "business" continues in Ukraine, EU-wide, and in as many other places in the world the Outlaw US Empire can gain purchase.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 21:20 utc | 134

@ c1ue | May 11 2022 20:25 utc | 123

I'm probably telling you something you already know: Ozzie Zehner presents some of the problems you articulate in Green Illusions (2012), then again in Planet of the Humans (2019). That Planet movie kicked up some useful intellectual turbulence awhile ago. Now the planet is on hold while Ukraine burns.

It's well-established in the history of all organizations like the IPCC that military GHG emissions are explicitly excluded from record-keeping! So we get the Cost of War Project -- folks tape-measuring the epidermis for a decent guess -- but no systematic estimate of how much carbon all these bombers and missiles emit -- not to mention the carbon footprint of blowing up so much stuff.

Michael Hudson has said this is a war to preserve fossil fuels -- you could say "a war to end all wars". Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Give him a poison fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 11 2022 21:20 utc | 135

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 20:25 utc | 123

I'm in NW Houston and have previously had PV systems in El Paso where it's *very* sunny. No, we are not 'allowed' to be off-grid, but I've done the calculations and the panels we just installed will cover 95% of our needs during the day. Next step is a battery bank for night. Goal isn't complete independence from the grid, just lowering our electricity bill. There is a 26% tax credit (federal) as well, which would have dropped to, I think, 22% next year.

After the ERCOT fiasco of 2021 we also decided to get a Generac, which is experiencing long lead times for obvious reasons. Ours is scheduled for install in about a month and a half.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 21:20 utc | 136

Regarding the fantasizing (that I share) about the Russians taking out Rammstein, I happen to be looking at a spreadsheet for upcoming military spending that was finalized in 2021 for FY22. Numerous projects in the works there and many other bases in Europe. It's shocking how many we have, even for me, and I work adjacent to the MIC.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 21:22 utc | 137

Ukraine is the most mined country in the world.

Posted by: circumspect | May 11 2022 19:18 utc | 97

Worse than Laos?

Posted by: farm ecologist | May 11 2022 21:22 utc | 138

LightYearsFromHome @133--

Actually, many of us are concerned, including me. However, as with EU there must be 100% consensus within NATO for other members to join, and Turkey and Hungary have already stated they are opposed.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 21:24 utc | 139

@ LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2022 21:11 utc | 133

i think others here are thinking about that... we just aren't commenting on it much if any... you might be right about usa-uk warming up for ww3.. i am sure the drooling neocons are, but they are so out to lunch, they will be drooling about any bloodshed, so long as it isn't theirs.. they make such good reps for lockheed martin and etc... the thing that stands out to me is how all of it is essentially anti-democratic... the people of finland or sweden get no say in any of it... it is decided by politicians barely out of diapers who haven't a clue... that ought to tell one how relevant these leaders decisions are... its all about political expediency.. my thing is these crazy fuckers are really wanting to gear up for a nuclear showdown and they haven't thought this thru... maybe we're fucked? this is why i don't comment on these types of speculations!

Posted by: james | May 11 2022 21:26 utc | 140

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 20:25 utc | 123

If it's a subsidy to people in my income bracket, I'm fine with that. I never said I wanted everything I do in life to contribute to a utopia where everything is fair for all. It does in fact lower our bill and we aren't selling any electricity back to the MUD unless we're not at home and don't have anything turned on. Air conditioning is more expensive here than anywhere I've ever lived. There's nothing scammy about it unless you want to talk about the environmental costs of extracting the raw materials and manufacturing the PV cells. That I won't argue with because I helped design PV cells using all sorts of toxic and cancer causing chemicals during my masters coursework in electrical engineering - and I know what the extractive toll is for the materials, depending on the technologies in use.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 21:27 utc | 141

If the deal was withdrawal of NATO membership for a chunk of Ukrainian territory, then perhaps the Russians would consider it. It could certainly be organized in a theatrical fashion, to make it look organic -- a few East-European states conduct a non-sanctioned peace-keeping mission and get booted out of the organization, a few more East-European states object and withdraw on their own initiative, Russia "inadvertently" achieves its security objectives and peaceful coexistence can return. I certainly don't expect anything like that to happen; it would require a great deal of trust between the states involved and the US would have to agree to be humiliated. I just bring it up because it's the only sort of "secret deal" I can see Russia agreeing to and, even then, they would expect payment up front.

Effectively ceding Ukrainian territory to a NATO state for empty promises, even if it's territory that's more trouble than its worth, means freezing the conflict for a future date when whatever forces left there can be rearmed and resupplied to renew hostilities. It's also an invitation for NATO forces to push further than whatever the secret agreement stipulates, as close to the Russian lines as they can get, which then forces a timeline on Russian operations and, in effect, reinforces Ukrainian lines for free when it would otherwise be impossible to do meaningfully. At that point, there's an argument to be made for attempting to use the combined forces of Ukraine and NATO to roll back Ukrainian territorial losses completely, essentially attempting that which delusional Ukrainian officials have recently started calling for.

With or without a secret back channel to Russia (presumably without), I believe that what the "Lublin triangle" is contemplating is a game of chicken. Maybe it sounds even more fantastic than the deal I outlined at the start, since it's a truism that Putin, despite constant claims to the contrary, doesn't bluff, but even 99,9% consistency still leaves room for doubt in some minds. If a peacekeeping mission is being prepared, it's being done on the premise that Russia might flinch in the face of formal participation in the conflict by NATO member states. That there may be a belated response with subsequent casualties would matter less, in these calculations, than how much ground a quick incursion by Poland & Lithuania might cover, and whether the non-response time-frame and territorial gains can be used to draw other NATO states into openly lending their support to this operation.

If the situation can be spun to look like large swaths of Western & Central Ukraine are coming under NATO control and Russia is too timid to respond, then that indeed will put pressure on other NATO states, particularly the big 5, to step up to the plate or face reputational disaster.

If it turns out that, shock horror, Russia acts as it has said it would, plan B could be to use the unfavorable situation for Polish & Lithuanian troops in Ukraine to pressure for a NATO bailout with whatever remnants of plan A remains -- unity, solidarity, common values and you owe us help kurwa. If it works, then surely the united efforts of American, French, British and German troops on the ground would make Putin think twice about launching strikes at NATO positions. Best of all, no risk of escalating into a world war, since these states have very competent figures who wouldn't commit to any plan that wasn't 100% foolproof, so we can push as far as we want -- they'll stop us if it gets out of hand. (Polish logic)

Then, if plan A and B don't work and Polish & Lithuanian soldiers are turned into minced meat without accomplishing any objective at all, there's plan C. Plan C is to throw a tantrum and demand monetary compensation. Plan C is the universal third back-up plan for Poland and it generally works in one way or another.

Posted by: Skiffer | May 11 2022 21:33 utc | 142

Posted by: RJB | May 11 2022 19:25 utc | 100
"NATO has access to the Black Sea: Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey."

Turkey is not going to join NATO in fighting Russia. And Turkey controls the Black Sea ingress and egress.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 21:38 utc | 143

Posted by: Seer | May 11 2022 20:08 utc | 117
"I'm still a bit perplexed as to how Russia is going to ensure that western Ukraine is militarily neutralized long-term."

Precisely. In my view this trumps the nonsense about "Russia doesn't want to deal with Ukrainian nationalists in Galicia." Well, they should. And they certainly can, if it's done properly.

"it seems like Russia's borders would then be closer to a NATO force: Donbass was essentially a buffer zone."

Exactly. But everyone is so obsessed with "Russia's weakness against Ukrainian nationalism" that they can't see it.

"And thinking about this, how comfortable would the Poles be to have Russian troops right on their border?"

It wouldn't necessarily be Russian troops per se. It would probably be Russian strategic weapons to counter the ones in Poland and Romania. A Russian airbase with MiGs loaded with Kinzhals. And anyway, what can Poland do about it?

"Risking nuclear war for mid-term elections seems a bridge too far: there are still enough sane heads in the Pentagon that I just don't see them stepping over that line."

Let's hope so.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 21:48 utc | 144

@124 c1ue

Doing some very light digging into the subject, it seems as though in some western parts of Ukraine, the amount of Polish speakers is about 15%. In other western areas, it is anywhere from 5-10%. So very minimal Polish influence there, similar to German Danzig where 90%+ were German-speaking.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 21:49 utc | 145

This is not about fascism or nazism or Galician nationalism, which all so many cynical ways to inflame grunts on the ground. From day 1 Ukraine has been the new Albania, a black state run by a huge interlocking global mafia. It was designed so, a place where a black market in girls, drugs, intelligence, guns, money laundering and electronic warfare could thrive and proliferate like a tumour inside Europe and Russia. The Russians wanted to clean it up. I bet most of the Ukrainians did too. 2014 was a mafia coup with eyes on land grabs in the East. The first Donbass war was fought against the foot soldiers of the capos.

A good friend of mine was caught up in a marriage scam in Kiev about a decade ago, two years before the coup. It was an utterly lawless town by his account and he was shocked to say he'd felt far safer in Lagos, Kinshasa or even Soweto. From the moment he arrived the taxi driver suggested a hired bodyguard/interpreter connected to various organisations in order to smooth his trip out. When he pulled the plug after 3 days goons paid him a scary visit at his hotel room after which he was lucky to make his way straight to the airport and camped there for 24hrs until his rescheduled flight. All up he forked over somewhere between $5-6K in payoffs. It made 1980s El Salvador look civilised. He later heard horror stories that might have been his story with a different ending.

Ukraine has to be taken and cleaned out because it is a collection of organised criminal fiefdoms. The empire needs it because it is a blackbox in Europe: nothing that goes in comes out, and nothing that comes out can be traced. One can only guess at the volume of untraceable goods and services that have flowed through there since 1992. I'd guess more than anywhere else in the last 200 years. That's a huge chunk of Ukraine's value to the West.

Imagine a cartel of organized criminals demanded protection payments from you. Imagine you were able to resist their depredations in collaboration with other locals similarly threatened. Now imagine that your government backed the criminals (because they were cartel shills) and you spent the next eight years terrorized by both your government and the cartel.

Now imagine the US, UK and Europe also backed the cartel against you. But Russia said 'enough'.

We shouldn't forget what happens to those who say 'enough' in the face of such coalitions. If anyone has seen the documentary 'Excellent Cadavers' (2005) you'll know what I mean. And I guess we can also simply point to the Kennedys and remind ourselves never again bring a knife to a gunfight. One must be like 'Robespierre L'Incorrutible' and mix virtue with terror.

Shutting Ukraine down is not an ethnic, political, ideological or territorial imperative, but a civilisational imperative. If it can be done there one can turn to the US/UK/EU and begin the real work.

Posted by: Patroklos | May 11 2022 21:54 utc | 146

German and Polish are not mutually comprehensible. I believe Polish and Ukrainian are mutually comprehensible, to a great extent. That means that kids growing up speaking one of the languages find it easy to learn another.

Think of Spanish and Italian. I think that approximates the degree of difference between them.

Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2022 21:58 utc | 147

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 20:12 utc | 118
"an area of Ukraine that is not currently a target of Russia"

Emphasis mine.

"which Russia does not wish to occupy - ever"

Speculation for which there is zero evidence except assertions by various people. As Martyanov continually explains, absolutely other than Putin's team and the Russian General Staff know the ultimate goals of this operation (and goals can change.) I don't even trust people's interpretations of Putin's very carefully expressed words on the topic of Russia's "goals", such as they have been.

"But that would be in contravention of whatever secret agreement *might* be in place."

I'm fairly confident in dismissing the idea of a secret agreement between Poland and Russia out of hand.

"Again, it's a theory to explain what on its surface looks like an incredibly stupid move, even for Poland with goading by FUKUS/NATO."

What part of this entire situation isn't an "incredibly stupid move"?

I try not to speculate any more on what limits the West will impose on itself or what Russia will do in response. I try to logically extrapolate from what the West's expressed intentions are and what Russia would need to do to respond to that. So far, the West's expressed intentions are - and they have increased over the last two months - "weaken Russia" and "Ukraine must win." I don't see anything less than incredible stupidity in those declarations given the military balance. As for what Russia needs to do to counter that, in the short term, I don't know, but logically it depends on Russia's ultimate goals. In the long term in terms of Russia's stated "security guarantees" and "military-technical measures", I've discussed that before here. But almost no one except Karlof1 seems to get it.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:01 utc | 148

Posted by: DaVinci | May 11 2022 20:39 utc | 125

Exactly. Nice to see someone who gets it.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:04 utc | 149

@148 Lysias

Thanks. It should be known that even small differences in a tongue are enough to inspire people to view others in a hostile light. Especially when the entire country is up-for-grabs as is the case in Ukraine.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 22:07 utc | 150

Patroklos @147--

How prescient of you to present that angle!!! Cynthia Chung announces at the end of her current essay, "Part 5 will conclude the series and situate the context of Ukraine today," which dovetails as you both describe the criminal syndicate known as the CIA, which has operated in Ukraine since 1945. Indeed, one of the thoughts I had while reading her fourth part--Wouldn't Russia like to see the CIA taken down several notches as it is directly responsible for the Russian Mafia and the problems it's caused for Russians, primarily drug addiction.

I don't see Russia not finishing the job since Putin is only one member of a council charged with defending Russia's security, and Putin is actually a moderate within that circle.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 22:10 utc | 151

I Grade, about northwest Ukraine or Eastern Poland

Gonzalo Lira said something that I found interesting regarding the hatred between the Bandera crowd and the Poles. He suggests they will begin fighting immediately. The Ukes are smart enough to know they can't win anything with the promises they are getting and giving out. It is a face saving retreat. Russia lets them retreat west, cleans up Donbass. Begins the Kiev and Odessa actions? Of course the only troops they would let go are going to have to move west or die, giving them adequate stimulus to vacate. Russia will give them a gauntlet to travel through so no more people will be harmed in the new nations territory.
Now it would be a brilliant political move for Russia, particularly if it promises the Poles they can keep it if they go along with the new order, or even the idea that Poland would be Ukrained if it didn't go along with the game due to current transgressions actively participating and providing war tools for this war against Russia. This and a nice discount on gas and oil will get yet another "unfriendly" turn back in to a neighbor and non NATO member. One becomes 2, 3, 4, then 27.
They have to. Just follow the money and the energy. With the gold standard announced, and Europe is getting to choose between collapse and survival. They just have to get over their hatred for Russia, or put it on a back burner for a few decades and see if that brings a longer peace.
This Tard has to dream okay?
Western Europe is lining up to tell Brussels to go the Nord See and continue on north. Detachment and Divorce are in the cards. The nations are pragmatic and the collective leadership are demonstrably mad.

Posted by: Tard | May 11 2022 22:11 utc | 152

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2022 20:51 utc | 128


Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2022 20:56 utc | 129
"A possible compromise solution is for Russia to allow Poland to take West Ukraine, so long as Poland leaves NATO."

Not going to happen because Poland will refuse to leave NATO. Without NATO Poland is nothing. They're not going to grab a chunk of mostly useless Ukraine in exchange for that, whatever Poland's historical fantasies.

People need to keep in mind that if Poland wants to rebuild its previous expanse by grabbing chunks of Ukraine, what makes anyone think they'll stop at Galicia? Their previous empire was all the way to Moscow IIRC. Certainly the Russians know that. As I've asked before, why should Russia give up any part of Ukraine in favor of Poland just because some people allege without any evidence whatsoever that Russia can't "control Galicia"?

When I hear Putin say that, then maybe we can talk.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:13 utc | 153

You guys have some really good points, each and every one of you!
If I may add to the brainstorming, you are forgeting the Black Sea...
This is from yesterday, in Bulgaria:

Commander of NATO's Allied Maritime Command Blount: NATO Does Not Intend to Stay Out of the Black Sea for Long.

There have been some strange articles comming up from a limited number of sites where Turkey has been cited warning Bulgaria not to jump onto the idea of urging for the arrival of NATO warships in the Black Sea. The Turkish side also said that Turkey would continue to uphold the closed aquatorial status of our shared Black Sea borders. They added that nobody in Turkey is willing to allow a confrontation (whether by mistake or intentionally done) between Russia and NATO. I would love to hear your take on that.

Posted by: Margarita | May 11 2022 22:15 utc | 154

@ Patroklos | May 11 2022 21:54 utc | 147 who wrote

Shutting Ukraine down is not an ethnic, political, ideological or territorial imperative, but a civilisational imperative. If it can be done there one can turn to the US/UK/EU and begin the real work.

Thanks for your view of Ukraine and the bigger context which I keep writing about. I see Ukraine like Syria where empire was stopped under Obama by Russia.....that "stalemate" is still pending. Russia is doing what it said it would do and they were very clear about the Poland NATO rollback.

The bully of global private finance will be put down or humanity will go down to a species that could not evolve beyond barbarism. Russia, with China's backing (in spite of the Western optics) has called for the question (socialism versus barbarism), a vote was taken (UN not supporting sanctions against Russia for Ukraine move) and the results are being processed.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 11 2022 22:15 utc | 155

The Ukrainian army group in the Donbass is protected by two obstacles. In the east are the fortified positions along the line of control built over the last eight years. In the north is the Seversky Donets River. What makes the approach from the north even more difficult is that the southern bank of the river is on high ground, with cliffs and hills overlooking the forested floodplain.

Two days ago it was claimed that Russians had established a bridgehead in Bilogorovka. @Suriyak posted two photos on Twitter of the destroyed tanks and the destroyed pontoon bridge. He claims the photos are from Bilogorovka / Bilohorivka (Білогорівка). I week ago Russians destroyed a similar Ukrainian pontoon bridge somewhere west of Izyum. The photos show the river flowing north, which would be consistent with Bilogorovka.

@Suriyak @Suriyakmaps on Twitter, May 11, 2022

On the other hand #RussianArmy/#LPR attempt to cross Donets river close to Bilohorivka/Білогорівка village (posssible location: 48.951890, 38.228272) ended in failure. While this natural barrier limits the advance from the north #LPR began shelling the villages north of Popasna/Попасна, which can be related with a possible advance during the future from this position towards the northern one, making this axis, in addition with the one at Nyzhnie, much more relevant in this way.

Looking around on Google Maps I found an interesting site nearby, Privolnian bridgehead (Привільнянський плацдарм) memorial park and WW2 memorial is in a hill some 8 km northeast of Bilogorovka. Google Maps has photos of the site that show the high elevation.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 11 2022 22:23 utc | 156

Posted by: Skiffer | May 11 2022 21:33 utc | 142
"If it works, then surely the united efforts of American, French, British and German troops on the ground would make Putin think twice about launching strikes at NATO positions."

I know you're relating Polish logic here, but if they think that they're in for a big shock. I'd tell them to skip Plan A and Plan B and go straight to Plan C.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:24 utc | 157

The US strategy with Russia as Toto

Posted by: the pessimist | May 11 2022 22:25 utc | 158

fake virus

Posted by: Obamavirus | May 11 2022 17:29 utc | 35

You mean the "fake virus" whose arrival just happened to coincide with the largest drop in American life expectancy since another virus (also fake?) called the Spanish Flu.

Maybe it was just an exponential rise in suffocation deaths caused by wearing masks or starvation resulting from people being unable to access Applebee's baby back ribs during the shutdowns.

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 11 2022 22:27 utc | 159

It should be known that even small differences...

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 22:07 utc | 151

:-) Emo Philips - Joke on Religion

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2022 22:28 utc | 160

Posted by: Patroklos | May 11 2022 21:54 utc | 147

Interesting comments on the degree of Ukraine corruption. As I've mentioned before, in the process of Russia getting it security guarantees in Ukraine, it will be a requirement to eliminate the current regime and the oligarchs for precisely that reason. Russia can't get a compliant Ukraine without that. Otherwise the US and NATO will just bribe their way back in.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:29 utc | 161

Posted by: Margarita | May 11 2022 22:15 utc | 155

Any statement by NATO on that is risible. Turkey controls ingress and egress, as you noted. Also, the Black Sea is a Russian lake militarily. Any Western military ship inside it is subject to instant destruction from the Bastion missile sites on Russia's coast, not to mention Russian aircraft and missile ships, including submarines, with anti-ship missiles.

That guy's statement is just another piece of bombast from NATO with absolutely nothing to back it up with.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:35 utc | 162

Interesting comment from Rybar about the export of Ukrainian wheat while Ukrainians are likely to starve...

Despite the critical situation with the sowing season, Ukraine continues to export grain to Europe

US President Joe Biden decided to reassure the Americans and announced ( that there are 20 million tons of grain in Ukraine, and now the issue of its export is being decided. In his opinion, this will help bring down world food prices.

The general features of the plan are also visible: they intend to export it by rail, since the seaports are blocked by the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. To do this, the European Commission is developing ( a plan for accelerating the supply of vegetable oils, corn and wheat to the EU.

The problem is that the maximum export capacity of the railway is estimated at 1.1 million tons of grain per month and 250 thousand tons of sunflower oil per month. Even now, stations equipped with elevators are used to export grain - for example, the Galka station in the Chernihiv region and the Batevo station in Transcarpathia.

In addition, Ukrainian food often faces phytosanitary problems at European customs. Simply put, Ukrainians supply low quality products that do not fall under the relatively high requirements of the EU.

But the European Union intends to solve these problems.

All this is being done not only to save the unfortunate starving Germans and British. First of all, the Ukrainian authorities must pay for the supply of arms and lend-lease (

In Ukraine itself, food prices are rising: according to the State Statistics Service in March, the growth was ( 6.2 % (for some categories: 15%-20%) in monthly terms, in April ( - by 4 .2%.

The increase in prices for products derived from cereals amounted to 12% -18%, while sowing in Ukraine "lags behind (" from last year by 20% - thirty%.

And in such conditions, Ukraine exports grain and food, dooming its citizens to starvation.

But in the US, they will be able to create a stock of grain in the context of the coming global food crisis in exchange for the supply of weapons (the money for which still remains in the US with American arms companies).

Well, the market makes money on this, of course: the price of futures for wheat in the US has increased from $800 to $1110 since the beginning of the military operation. And will continue to grow.
#EU #food #USA #Ukraine #economy

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:42 utc | 163

There is much talk here about Polish incursions and possibility of invoking Article V of NATO if attacked.

Theoretically and based on NATO rules, attack on an aggressive and offensive NATO member is not a valid point to invoke article V. Also, Article V is not an automatic response even if a member was attacked. It has to studied and agreed upon by the members.

However, this is all in theory. At this point, US is making up all he rules with no regard to legality, whether it is the UN or international law. Therefore, an attack on the Polish forces even if they are the aggressor cloaked in a “peacekeeping force” can be turned around to invoke an article V. They can come up with anything amongst themselves and international law be damned. This is war.

I use to laugh at these survivalist shows with their in ground dwellings and preparations. I am not laughing anymore. I am of the opinion that we will see a global war, sooner than later.

US and its minions will not lose control of the empire without a hot war since they are not ready to give up a millimeter of the pie. Period.

Posted by: Alpi | May 11 2022 22:47 utc | 164

From Rybar Telegram channel... Situation in the north as of May 11...

Attack on Donbass from the north: situation by 17.00 on May 11, 2022

The Ukrainian command, after breaking through the defenses in the Belogorovka area, is looking for ways to contain the advance of the RF Armed Forces in the Liman and Soledar directions.

In Novoselovka, according to local residents, units of the Russian Armed Forces entered. Fighting resumed in Shandrigolovo. From the outskirts of Liman, active artillery fire is being conducted on the positions of the allied forces. To the south of Yampol, the defense of the Armed Forces units was broken through: the forests and fields around Ozerny were occupied.

There are unconfirmed reports of a breakthrough in the enemy’s defense from the side of Popasnaya after an attack on the command and observation post of the 24th Ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of the settlement. Part of the Ukrainian forces retreated in the direction of Loskutovka.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthening near Gorsky, waiting for the breakthrough of the defensive lines near Orekhovo from Novoshtokovsky.

The operation of several radar stations was recorded at the front. In Katerinovka, the AN / TPQ-36 Firefinder counter-battery radar is located, in the area north of Avdiivka, the AN / TPQ-50 LCMR radar. In New York AN / TPQ-36, and in Toretsk AN / TPQ-48.

A partial rotation of units in this area was carried out by forces of 102 from Ivano-Frankivsk and 103 territorial defense brigades from Rivne regions. However, the situation is complicated by the fact that several dozen mobilized servicemen of the 103rd Terodefense Brigade refused to perform tasks due to lack of experience and the necessary equipment.

In Popasna, prisoners were taken from units of the Lviv Territorial Defense. The total irreplaceable losses in 101 territorial defense brigades exceeded 600 people.

The most combat-ready units of the 54th and 110th ombres are suffering heavy losses near Kurakhovo, Kamenka and Novobakhmutovka. To complete the brigades, there is a forced mobilization of citizens from nearby regions of Ukraine. At the same time, preparation for dispatch takes no more than one week due to the urgent need for manpower.

Moreover, due to the constant missile strikes and the activities of the aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the number of irretrievable losses is growing. At present, the transfer of combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with equipment from other regions to this direction is being considered.

The supply of weapons and ammunition to the front lines has been organized. Over the past two days, trains with ammunition and diesel fuel arrived at the Udachnoye station. Unloading was carried out at night.

Map in high resolution


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 22:47 utc | 165

If Poland attempts anything at all they will screw it up completely. The only way they would be given enough free leash to do that would be if it were Washington’s way to get more involved.. Which they already are so why do they need Poland. Maybe to weave a tangled web. Whatever the plan it will fail.

Russia has a side agreement? If Russia sees US as non agreement capable how do they view Poland? Maybe they would allow Poland to screw up for amusement in other cases, this one is too fraught to fool around with.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 11 2022 22:52 utc | 166

Posted by: Alpi | May 11 2022 22:47 utc | 165

I agree. There is no more "legality" involved in this situation. The US will do what it thinks it can get away with and NATO will follow, even if grumbling.

Also, as Scott Ritter has pointed out, Article 4 - the "consultative" article - is even more dangerous than Article 5. The Yugoslavia assault was carried out under Article 4. There is little doubt in my mind that a Polish incursion is intended to widen the war in some form. The US is using Ukraine to "weaken Russia", so obviously the US has no bones about using Poland to do the same. The Poles don't have any more say than Ukraine. Look at how they first balked at sending MiGs to Ukraine, then immediately turned around when pressured by the US. Then the US DoD weighed in and nixed it because it made Ramstein a target.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 23:00 utc | 167

From Azmilitary on Telegram just now: "The UK has signed mutual security agreements with Sweden and Finland. Boris Johnson confirmed that the UK will go to Sweden's aid in the event of an attack."

At least those in Sweden and Finland can sleep at night knowing good 'ole Blighty will come to their aid - just like with Poland in 1939. Incidentally, Blighty guaranteed Polish sovereignty, not her borders, back in '39. Not worth a crap in the woods, is it?

Posted by: Mongo | May 11 2022 23:01 utc | 168

farm ecologist @ 138
Worse than Laos?

I should have said heavily mined instead on most mined. Ukraine does not make the top ten. Of course, all the mines placed there are blamed on Russia. According to the MSM Ukrainians do not plant mines. At this point the amount of mines placed along the line of contact is undermined.

The actual extension of anti-personnel mines’ contamination in the Donbass conflict zone is undeterminable, partially due to the ongoing military confrontation. Even the officials provide significantly dissimilar assumptions. In 2015, the Defense Ministry said that around 37,000 square km of the territory of both Donetsk and Luhansk republics had been contaminated with UXOs and mines, mostly alongside the 457-km line of contact between the army and the DPR and LPR militias. 21,000 square km of this territory were government-controlled areas and the rest 16,000 square km were the occupied territories. Though, in 2018 the potential impact were recalculated and the Defense Ministry assumed that smaller area, namely, 7,000 square km of the government-controlled territories and 9,000 square km of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions plus Russia-annexed Crimea had been potentially filled with unexploded remnants of war.
Landmines in the Donbass conflict zone: threats for the population and the necessity of mine clearance

Posted by: circumspect | May 11 2022 23:17 utc | 169

From Intel Slava Z Telegram channel...

"The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Polish ambassador, who was told that Russia was waiting for an official apology from Poland for the attack on the Russian ambassador."

Also: The Polish embassy in Moscow was doused with red paint.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 23:23 utc | 170

Posted by: Patroklos | May 11 2022 21:54 utc | 147

"... From day 1 Ukraine has been the new Albania, a black state run by a huge interlocking global mafia. It was designed so, a place where a black market in girls, drugs, intelligence, guns, money laundering and electronic warfare could thrive and proliferate like a tumour inside Europe and Russia. The Russians wanted to clean it up."

Patroklos, your comment is a treasured clarification of the hideousness of our world crisis. The desperate behavior of the Deep State is evidence that if they lose control of events and of the narrative, their crimes will be reported and they will be brought to justice. Their crimes include those you describe.

No false flag descriptions of maternity hospitals, baby incubators, and nursery school damages will erase the record of child sex trafficking brought to Russia as part our SHOCK DOCTRINE, America's gift to the former Soviet Union.

Posted by: Linda Wood | May 11 2022 23:27 utc | 171

If nations acted rationally the world would be a safe place and realist foreign policy would be the norm. Unfortunately, they don’t. This is especially true of western nations. Many nations act so irrationally that we explain their fuckery by saying the US didn’t want a stable Iraq but a huge mess.

The arc of instability as policy is true, but not always and everywhere. In probably half the cases, the policy isn’t designed to produce instability but does because the policy enacted isn’t rational, isn’t thought out to all of its possible conclusions, and doesn’t include realistic responses to those possible conclusions. So shit just gets thrown at it until continuing on is no longer tenable. See, Vietnam or Iraq. Or the western response to Russia’s SMO.

It’s not rational for Poland to try and take a slice of Ukraine. Not at all. Doesn’t mean they won’t try it. And there are plenty of powerful Poles who would like to go to Moscow. See the link I posted above.

Rationality is hard work. The fundamental flaw of the Enlightenment and the liberal world order that sprang from it is an assumption of rationality as a human trait. Groups of people are even less likely to act rationally than individuals. And small groups of people with wealth and power which they attribute to their own genius and rationality are the worst at consistently behaving from reason.

So yes it would be colossally stupid for Poland to enter Ukraine in any way or form. Just like it was colossally stupid to invade Iraq with an intention to be an occupying power or pour 500,000 men into Vietnam or think that Ukrainian ethno-nationalists could ethnically cleansed Russians in Donbas to extinction. Colossally stupid behavior is probably more a driver of historical events than “great men” or economic-political ideology.

Posted by: Lex | May 11 2022 23:33 utc | 172

From Pepe Escobar's Telegram channel... on the bio labs in Ukraine...

Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, made several statements:

The special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces made it possible to stop criminal experiments on civilians of Ukraine;
Ukraine is a training ground for the West for the development of biological weapons components and testing of new samples of pharmaceuticals;
The Russian Ministry of Defense has information about the Pentagon's experiments on Ukrainian citizens in a psychiatric hospital near Kharkov;
The United States tried to hide their participation in biological experiments on patients of a psychiatric hospital in Ukraine;
Fake money distributed in 2020 in the LPR were infected with a strain of tuberculosis resistant to anti-tuberculosis drugs;
Collection of biomaterials from Ukrainians by epidemiologists of a Bundeswehr Institute confirms the military focus of research in Ukraine;
The information available to the Russian Defense Ministry confirms the implementation of the US offensive military biological program in Ukraine;
The leaders of the Democratic Party are the ideologists of the US military-biological activities in Ukraine;
Pfizer, Moderna, Merck and other pharmaceutical companies are involved in US military biological activities in Ukraine;
Military biological projects on the territory of Ukraine, in addition to the United States, are being implemented by Germany and Poland;
US specialists are testing new drugs bypassing international safety standards, reducing the cost of research;
Ukrainian government agencies are involved in military biological activities in the country along with Pentagon contractors;
At the end of April, ten more UAVs were found in the area of Kakhovka, equipped with containers and equipment for spraying biorecipes.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 23:36 utc | 173

A most interesting development.

On one hand some western "Ministry of Truth" media has become cynical of country 404. How ever this does not interfere with the government enforced media view. That country 404 , is winning the war. Implying that Russia has lost up to a fictitious 60% of it's current military force in country 404. Yet this extreme loss, does not correlate to the actual number of Russian POW's captured by the rapidly weakening country 404 military.

The various western media 'Ministry of Truths', are showing shock and awe pic's of the old abandoned "snake island'. lol

Some Western media "Ministry of Truth's" have chosen by self choice. Closer to self censorship! . The full disclosure of which land bound country in Europa has been cut off from the 'SOYUZ' Gas pipeline shutdown by country 404.

In the interim Russia, has provided full online disclosure, of who's who in the US Government funded illegal Bio-lab business. Also is questioning more as to why an animal class 3 research lab. Was researching deadly human only based pathogens. Still, more interesting was an attempt by country 404 to infect children .With a deadly drug resistant TB using infected paper .....

The canny Russian's are always at least two steps ahead of country 404 none too bright Diktator "Z" Along with bamboozled dumb and dumber UK/NATO/US idiot advisors . One would offer an opinion. Sadly, not one of these countries Generals have learnt one solitary lesson since VJ day, 1945..

It also appears that one ex foreign Canuckistan "Bio-Lab" General has been captured running away, from Mariupol.

Truth is the first casualty in war "Ministry of Truth"...........

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 11 2022 23:38 utc | 174

From Sputnik News Telegram channel... LOL This shows how the Ukrainian government is literally destroying Ukraine infrastructure on its own...

Kiev has reached the "decommunization" of subway cars.

Soviet and Russian-made railcars will be removed from there, Ukrainian media report.
In total, 821 cars run in the Kiev subway. Of these, 726 were manufactured by factories of the USSR and the Russian Federation.
With the same success, you can remove the entire subway, because it is also Soviet.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 23:50 utc | 175

Metallicman on utoob gives some analysis in a 2 part 55 minute series.

After Ukraine, what's next? Part 1

If you must, skip intro start at 3:00

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 11 2022 23:51 utc | 176

RSH @174--

Thanks for posting that info! IMO, Russia won't stop until it secures all Ukraine and will likely go further based on that and related info alone. The passing of TB "infected" currency is enough grounds all by itself.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 12 2022 0:08 utc | 177

"Washington will want the Poles ... in Western Ukraine to set up a protected area that can be used by Washington to arm and train mercenaries and what is left of the Ukrainian military to counter-attack Russia over the summer months."

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | May 11 2022 17:15 utc | 29

Yeah! That's the ticket!

"[T]he politicos ... are so stoned on their shit ... disaster will ensue."

"The Polish gambit is merely the Snake Island ploy on a larger scale--Russia most likely will eliminate those forces as soon as they enter Ukraine, which it can do rather easily with its aerospace & missile forces alone."

karlof1 | May 11 2022 17:44 utc |46

"I think Russia will attack the Poles in Ukraine, but not in Poland, at some point - if not at the point of their incursion, then later when Russia is done with Donbass. Meanwhile, I do expect missile strikes at Polish forces this side of the border from the start of the incursion."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 19:57 utc | 112

All prescient. Poland and Washington must have forgotten strikes on Yaroviv near the Polish border, probably because it was so long ago --- almost 30 days:

"high-precision long-range weapons were used to strike the training centers of the Ukrainian armed forces at Yavoriv and a separate facility in the village of Starichi.
Russia says up to 180 “foreign mercenaries” have been killed in an attack it conducted against the Yavoriv training facility in western Ukraine, adding that the attack also destroyed a large amount of weapons that came from other countries."

What's that mental disorder for doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results?

Posted by: Doug Hillman | May 12 2022 0:10 utc | 178

Posted by: Patroklos | May 11 2022 21:54 utc | 147

"... From day 1 Ukraine has been the new Albania, a black state run by a huge interlocking global mafia. It was designed so, a place where a black market in girls, drugs, intelligence, guns, money laundering and electronic warfare could thrive and proliferate like a tumour inside Europe and Russia. The Russians wanted to clean it up."

Patroklos, your comment is a treasured clarification of the hideousness of our world crisis. The desperate behavior of the Deep State is evidence that if they lose control of events and of the narrative, their crimes will be reported and they will be brought to justice. Their crimes include those you describe.

No false flag descriptions of maternity hospitals, baby incubators, and nursery school damages will erase the record of child sex trafficking brought to Russia as part our SHOCK DOCTRINE, America's gift to the former Soviet Union.

Posted by: Linda Wood | May 11 2022 23:27 utc | 172

Thank you Patroklas and Linda. Goes to show why this is existential for Russia and indeed for the world

Posted by: K | May 12 2022 0:15 utc | 179

Posted by: Linda Wood | May 11 2022 23:27 utc | 172

Sounds like Ukraine is a colony of Israel, the only other country with such a high concentration of such ghastly stuff.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 12 2022 0:17 utc | 180

I am damn sick and tired of hearing about the Ukraine. The Russians are eventually going to win, okay?

It's probably just a giant distraction from the Great Depression-II we are all experiencing. Okay?

Posted by: blues | May 12 2022 0:26 utc | 181

Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2022 23:36 utc | 174

Ron Unz at The Unz Review makes a compelling case in a series of articles that Covid-19 was a US Bioweapon released in Wuhan during the World Military Games in fall 2019.

Perhaps that's why Russia, China and others are calling for a UN investigation of the 300+ Pentagram-funded bio-wafare research labs around the world. It's hard to fathom the depths of US neoliberalcon evil.

Posted by: Douglas Terpstra | May 12 2022 0:30 utc | 182

Why does Russia and pro Russia commentators talk as if Russia is so afraid of article 5 of nato.
In fact Russia should seek out fight against nato which has been waging war on Russia for last 4 years continuously.

Posted by: Soi | May 12 2022 0:32 utc | 183

I've never thought this whole affair was anything but stage management by the WEF. If that might be the case, and if I ran the zoo, I would have Poland attack Belarus. I don't think de-eacalation was ever in the plans, and that is how I'd broaden this adventure.

Posted by: cobo | May 12 2022 0:33 utc | 184

Having read or skimmed through nearly 200 comments, let me add one more. One commentator had it right--If Poland intervenes in Western Ukraine, it will be to control the Azovs. Evidently, the Azovs are all over Western Ukraine, bullying the restive populace taht mostly wanted no part of this war. The Azovs are very powerful, as indicated their integration into the Ukrainian Army supposedly against the wish of the UKA's Chief of Staff. Russia will take over the pro-Russian and pro-Yanukovitch eastern and southern halves of Ukraine and forge them into a new nation (NovoRussiya?) that will protect its western flank, along with Belarus. Russia has no sane desire to try to control the rabidly anti-Russian western sector of current Ukraine. As long as the Poles stick to peacekeeping, Russia will not challenge their presence but merely laugh its ass off when the Azovs and Poles go at it. But I don't think the Poles realize what they're in for--the Azovs are very fanatical and will be hopping mad after the Russian victory and not about to give up its power in Western Ukraine.

Posted by: FHTEX | May 12 2022 0:42 utc | 185

Two things I don't see mentioned:

What is the best estimate of AFU troops in Donbas? It started at 50 - 60K and then seems to drop to 30K and now less? If Ukraine is to be shattered, this is critical. Too low and bleeding Russia starts to look possible.

OTOH, it looks like Democrats have a special hatred for Russia while with Republicans, it's China. If they grab Congress, emphasis may shift. A few of them have even voted against the Ukraine giveaways. November isn't that far away.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 12 2022 0:43 utc | 186

"Moscow claims Ukraine tried to infect the pro-Russian population in the Lugansk People’s Republic with tuberculosis (TB) and allowed the Pentagon to carry out human experiments at Kharkov’s psychiatric wards.

"During a briefing on the findings of the Russian Defense Ministry’s investigation into the purportedly US-funded bioweapon labs in Ukraine, Chief of Russia’s Radioactive, Chemical, and Biological Protection Forces Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov claimed that Russian forces had obtained evidence suggesting Kiev attempted to infect residents of the Slavyanoserbsk district of the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) with a highly pathogenic strain of tuberculosis in 2020.

“Leaflets made in the form of counterfeit banknotes were infected with the causative agent of tuberculosis and distributed among minors in the village of Stepovoe,” Kirillov said, adding that the organizers of this crime took into account the behavior of children, which includes “putting things in their mouth” and handling food without washing their hands.

"Kirillov stated that the results of the bacteriological studies confirmed the resistance of the isolated bacteria found on the leaflets to first and second line anti-TB drugs, which meant that the disease caused by them was much more difficult and expensive to treat.

"He went on to quote the conclusion of the Lugansk Republican Sanitary and Epidemiological station, which stated that “the infection of the banknotes was most likely artificial, since the material contains extremely dangerous strains of the pathogen in a concentration that can ensure infection and the development of the tuberculosis process.”

"Kirillov added that the LPR TB dispensary also noted signs of “deliberate, man-made contamination of leaflets with biomaterials of high pathogenicity.”

"Russian officials also claimed that the Pentagon had been allegedly conducting “inhumane” experiments on the patients of at least two psychiatric institutions in Kharkov. “The main category of experimental subjects was a group of male, highly physically exhausted patients aged between 40 to 60 years,” Kirillov said.

"The experiments were run directly by foreign specialists that had arrived in Ukraine through third-party nations to conceal the US’ involvement. The specialists were abruptly evacuated from the country earlier this year, shortly before the Russian military operation kicked off, Kirillov noted.

“In January 2022, the foreign citizens who conducted the experiments were urgently evacuated, and the equipment and drugs they used were taken to the western regions of Ukraine,” he said.
"Last week, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, told RT that the service had “clearly identified” multiple Americans involved in the military biological research in Ukraine, including Pentagon employees, as well as companies closely associated with the US military. According to Russian estimates, Washington poured more than $224 million into biological research in the country between 2005 and early 2022, Bastrykin stated.

"US officials have confirmed the existence of “biological research facilities” in Ukraine, but said Washington only provided what they called “assistance” for efforts that did not involve the development of bioweapons..."
(From a source on the internet..)

Posted by: bevin | May 12 2022 0:56 utc | 187

Sounds like Ukraine is a colony of Israel, the only other country with such a high concentration of such ghastly stuff.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 12 2022 0:17 utc | 180

Unfortunately far from it: Haiti and other neighbouring countries, Libya and certainly many parts of Africa, Burma, even in South Korea missing children are a problem and probably anywhere else the Empire has scorched.

Posted by: K | May 12 2022 1:00 utc | 188

Another high quality summation of the issues, the rights and wrongs. Copy to those you know refusing to listen to reason. This is unanswerable. I just wish it wasn't at Unz Review where there is so much racist rubbish.

Posted by: bevin | May 12 2022 1:00 utc | 189

Russia has addressed the possibility of NAYOYO entering Ukraine for any reason, even posing as 'humanitarians'. I believe Russia understands this would be an attempt to provide sanctuary for defeated Banderite Nazis, and a dumping ground for millions of Kiev's refugees. This rump state would provide a base for further provocations and atrocities similar to those of 2014 -2022 Donbass.
Russia would answer with rocket attacks on Polish and Baltic airfields bringing the war to NAYOYO's house. I would expect them to isolate the battlefield with destruction of highway and railroads, followed quickly by attacks on energy stockpiles and generators, highway ring roads and interchanges near the Ukraine border.
Bulgaria and Rumania risk having their navies and air forces destroyed and their harbours mined. Poland risks flank attacks out of Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Baltics risk annihilation. US-NAYOYO forces risk contempt worse than the failures produced by the Afghan retreat, Iraq and Syria.
There are so many possibilities and imponderables, that an 'occupation' of Galicia should be considered a dangerously foolish act.

Posted by: ricardo2000 | May 12 2022 1:05 utc | 190

@ Patroklos | May 11 2022 21:54 utc | 147

great comment... sums it up well...

@ skiffer... thanks for your post... ditto bevin for your posts....

Posted by: james | May 12 2022 1:10 utc | 191

Bevin, That a site allows what you call "racist rubbish" is a sign that it allows freedom of speech.

We have seen and are still today seeing what the consequences are of forbidding "racist" speech.

The proper answer to wrong speech is not to forbid it, but to refute it.

Posted by: Lysias | May 12 2022 1:12 utc | 192

"get ‘elensky to give Poland rump Ukraine to reconstitute the The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth,"
If the "Americans" make that offer without asking Austria (who ruled over that part of Ukraine until 1918)if they want to rule over Galicia again (which I'm sure they would not), whom Ukrainians preferred 1,000 times over the Poles (who they hated for what the Poles did to them), I'll support a future dissolution of Poland again and move the ten million or so Poles out of the German territory they have lived on since 1945. Germany and Russia can break Poland up again once the USA is exposed as a powerless carcass, which could happen within the next 5 years.

Part of the agreement will include a clause prohibiting Jews like Victoria Nuland from ever returning to Europe again.

Posted by: Peter | May 12 2022 1:21 utc | 193

Ukrainian refugees are speaking out. They do not believe the Kiev regime's anti-Russia propaganda. They seek evacuation to the Russian Federation to escape the war imposed upon them by the West's Zelensky puppet dictatorship.

See the video, here:

Posted by: Nate | May 12 2022 1:28 utc | 194

bevin | May 12 2022 1:00 utc | 189

Mike Whitney has a mudrack account, but not all his articles are there. He also contributes here: which includes the article you referenced at Unz Review.

Posted by: NotEinstein | May 12 2022 1:49 utc | 195

Regarding the bio-lab revelations;

@ 174; You'd think, if true, such info couldn't be kept under wraps very long. Too many folks have been harmed by the U$A, and it's policies. Might be time for someone, or nation, to "out" the empire. If true, it's clear, my nation is run by Nazis!!

Posted by: vetinLA | May 12 2022 1:52 utc | 196

Poland is naive to think the Zelensky Zionist Project in Ukraine is their ally. Like a rabbit inviting a boa to dinner. Poland says ‘no border’ with Ukraine. The host invites the deadly parasite.

Posted by: FredF | May 12 2022 2:01 utc | 197

If Poland reclaims western Ukraine, in no time Germany could reclaim western Poland...

Posted by: FMG | May 12 2022 2:02 utc | 198

Posted by: Douglas Terpstra | May 12 2022 0:30 utc | 182

I've heard that theory about the Wuhan Games before. Back in 2020 it was all the rage here IIRC. Never saw any definitive proof. Subsequent to the discoveries in Ukraine, however, it becomes somewhat more plausible.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 12 2022 2:07 utc | 199

Bozo Biden made speeches in Poland to 82nd Airborne and regime change in Moscow. Any move by Poland will be seen in this context - simply as Poland being Ukraine II in US proxy war

NATO will collapse and no West European nation will align with Poland

Belarus would become involved because Poland cannot risk being encircled and Belarus will make the land ridge to Kaliningrad

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 12 2022 2:09 utc | 200

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