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May 11, 2022

Ukraine - Congress Passes The Bucks, Realism Sneaks In, Poland Plans For More War

After a lot of talk about defeating Russia in the Ukraine and an alleged lack of Russian fighting abilities Congress passed another $40 billion fund for weapons and economic support. That brings the total to some $53 billion for Ukraine.

Most of the money will go to the U.S. weapon industry, the CIA and to various Ukrainian oligarchs. Hardly anything will be received by those in need.

With that packet now passed reality is allowed to sneak into U.S. media reporting on the issue.

Not one but two reports in the New York Times suddenly lament about the huge area of land the Russian troops have taken in east Ukraine:

From the later:

Nonetheless, the Donbas seizure, combined with the Russian invasion’s early success in seizing parts of southern Ukraine adjoining the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, gives the Kremlin enormous leverage in any future negotiation to halt the conflict.

And the Russians enjoy the added advantage of naval dominance in the Black Sea, the only maritime route for Ukrainian trade, which they have paralyzed with an embargo that could eventually starve Ukraine economically and is already contributing to a global grain shortage.

I have often pointed out that the Ukrainian frontline will have a huge number of casualties from Russian artillery strikes. It is even worse than I had thought:

At the main hospital in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk, ambulances stream in day and night, carrying soldiers wounded at the front, who describe being pinned down by near constant shelling.

About 80 percent of the patients are wounded by explosives such as mines and artillery shells, said Capt. Eduard Antonovskyy, the deputy commander of the medical unit at the hospital. Because of this, he said, very few patients have serious injuries. Either you’re far enough from an explosion to survive or you aren’t, he said.

“We either get moderate injuries or deaths,” Captain Antonovskyy said.

Additional to those more realistic reports the NYT allowed one of it authors to write an opinion piece against the widening of the war:

At first, the Western support for Ukraine was mainly designed to defend against the invasion. It is now set on a far grander ambition: to weaken Russia itself. Presented as a common-sense response to Russian aggression, the shift, in fact, amounts to a significant escalation.

By expanding support to Ukraine across the board and shelving any diplomatic effort to stop the fighting, the United States and its allies have greatly increased the danger of an even larger conflict. They are taking a risk far out of step with any realistic strategic gain.
...
When I was in Ukraine during the first weeks of the war, even staunch Ukrainian nationalists expressed views far more pragmatic than those that are routine in America now. Talk of neutral status for Ukraine and internationally monitored plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhansk has been jettisoned in favor of bombast and grandstanding.
...
What’s more, the invasion has led directly to greater military spending in second- and third-tier European powers. The number of NATO troops in Eastern Europe has grown tenfold, and a Nordic expansion of the organization is likely. A general rearmament of Europe is taking place, driven not by desire for autonomy from American power but in service to it. For the United States, this should be success enough. It is unclear what more there is to gain by weakening Russia, beyond fantasies of regime change.
...
Diplomatic efforts ought to be the centerpiece of a new Ukraine strategy. Instead, the war’s boundaries are being expanded and the war itself recast as a struggle between democracy and autocracy, in which the Donbas is the frontier of freedom. This is not just declamatory extravagance. It is reckless. The risks hardly need to be stated.

Indeed. The current U.S. strategy will end in a catastrophe for Ukraine because it is based on false narratives. Lt.Col. (ret) Daniel Davis has consistently provided a more realist view of the military situation in Ukraine. His latest piece fits that record:

Over the past few days, a flurry of senior leaders in both Ukraine and Washington have issued defiant claims of not merely resisting Russian aggression, but pushing towards outright victory. While such aspirations are entirely understandable, it is unwise to set policy seeking a preferred outcome if there does not exist a rational path by which Ukraine could accomplish that objective. At present, most indicators, fundamentals of war, and current battlefield trendlines support the prospect of a Ukrainian defeat.

Davis correctly describes the current military situation on the ground and concludes:

By continuing to seek a military victory in Ukraine, Ukraine’s troops will continue fighting, no negotiated settlement will be realistically sought, and most likely Russian troops continue making progress. As a result, more Ukrainian civilians and troops will continue to be killed and wounded, more cities destroyed, and the economic and food crises – for both Ukraine and the world – will worsen. The most likely outcome will not change (a negotiated settlement, not a Ukrainian military victory), but the cost to Kyiv will be much, much worse.

Another former military man who has a realist view of the war is Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret). During the first Gulf war he led a unit in the Battle of 73 Easting:

Macgregor was the "squadron operations officer who essentially directed the Battle of 73 Easting" during the Gulf War. Facing an Iraqi Republican Guard opponent, he led a contingent consisting of 19 tanks, 26 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and 4 M1064 mortar carriers through the sandstorm to the 73 Easting at roughly 16:18 hours on 26 February 1991 destroyed almost 70 Iraqi armored vehicles with no U.S. casualties in a 23-minute span of the battle.

The previously quoted Lt.Col. Davis was wounded in the same battle. As both men have seen real mechanized war it is not by chance that they have come to similar conclusions.

Macgregor warns of a widening of the war through a Polish intervention in west Ukraine which would eventually drag NATO into the war:

Why would Poland, with the help of Lithuania, try to take western Ukraine? It is all about history:

The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, formally known as the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and, after 1791, as the Commonwealth of Poland, was a country and bi-federation of Poland and Lithuania ruled by a common monarch in real union, who was both King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. It was one of the largest and most populous countries of 16th to 17th-century Europe. At its largest territorial extent, in the early 17th century, the Commonwealth covered almost 1,000,000 km2 (400,000 sq mi) and as of 1618 sustained a multi-ethnic population of almost 12 million.

Here is how that commonwealth looked on a map with current borders:


bigger

There have been talks for a while that Poland would send a 'peacekeeping' force to occupy Galicia in west-Ukraine. I for one predicted it on February 24, at the very onset of the war:

Thanks to Stalin's additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine's western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.

An official looking document now says that a Polish/Lithuanian operation will start on May 22-24.

Lord Of War @lord_of_war____ - 14:46 UTC · May 10, 2022
🇺🇦🇵🇱The document was sent to the President of the State Border Service of Ukraine, Serhiy Daynek, stating that it is 22-24. May joint "Lithuanian-Polish peacekeeping contingent" consisting of 4 battalions, 9,500 soldiers and 279 units of military equipment  [planned to enter the territory of Ukraine. Another confirmation of the development of plans for the occupation and further division of the country. Even if this particular document turns out to be false (which is not excluded), it does not change the general course of the West in relation to Ukraine.]
picture

9.500 soldiers are way more than fit into 4 battalions. A battalion has typically some 400-800 soldiers. These are more like three small brigades with 3-4 battalions each.

A Polish/Lithuanian move is exactly what Col. Macgregor is warning of:

Ten weeks after the conflict began, it is instructive to re-examine the strategic picture. The war against Russia in Ukraine has evolved, but not in the way Western observers predicted. Ukrainian forces look shattered and exhausted. The supplies reaching Ukrainian troops fighting in Eastern Ukraine are a fraction of what is needed. In most cases, replacements and new weapons are destroyed long before they reach the front.

Confronted with the unambiguous failure of U.S. assistance and the influx of new weapons to rescue Ukrainian forces from certain destruction, the Biden administration is desperate to reverse the situation and save face. Poland seems to offer a way out. More important, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have both expressed the desire to erase the borders between Poland and Ukraine.

Unconfirmed reports from Warsaw indicate that after Washington rejected the proposals for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, along with the transfer of Polish MIG-29 aircrafts to Ukrainian pilots, the Polish general staff was quietly instructed to formulate plans for intervention in the Ukrainian conflict by seizing the western part of Ukraine. Naturally, military action of this scale would require Kiev’s approval, but given Washington’s de facto control of the Zelensky government, approval for Polish military intervention should not be a problem.

Presumably, the Biden administration may hope that a collision involving Russians and Poles in any form—including air and missile strikes against Polish forces on the Ukrainian side of the border—would potentially call for the NATO council to meet and address Article V of the NATO treaty.

It would mean that NATO, or at least major parts of it, would actively join the Ukrainian proxy war against Russia. While I believe that Russia has withheld forces from the current war to eventually defend against NATO, any entry of it into the war would significantly extend the fighting and the danger of a nuclear exchange would become imminent.

Posted by b on May 11, 2022 at 15:43 UTC | Permalink

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" It would mean that NATO, or at least major parts of it, would actively join the Ukrainian proxy war against Russia"

NATO has joined the war by Proxy through the Western Media. The pregnant girl (used by Western media) with the bloody face in the Mariupol Maternity ward bombing, is now saying Russia DID NOT force people to move to Russia. She is also choosing to live in the Russian part of Ukraine.

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gdNbs42tTM

Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 11 2022 16:01 utc | 1

About 80 percent of the patients are wounded by explosives such as mines and artillery shells,...

The Russian word "mina" (мина) means both a mine and a grenade or artillery shell. Google translate however always translates it as "mine", even if the "mines" are raining down from the sky. I do not think the Ukrainian troops in defensive positions are wounded by landmines. Most likely the NYT reporter is referring to a faulty translation.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 11 2022 16:07 utc | 2

Marat gabidullin
Chi è questo tizio che afferma essere intimo di Putin e ex appartenente al gruppo Wagner

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | May 11 2022 16:10 utc | 3

NATO has been in, around, through and behind Ukraine since the breakup of the USSR

We are in a civilization war about public/private global finance

NOT fascism

NOT socialism

NOT communism

NOT capitalism

NOT marxism

The MoA comment section for me has had ongoing value because it focuses more on reality than the "isms" used to obfuscate reality. Please only refer to the ISM myths of our world when trying to describe reality like public/private finance behind the curtain.

Thanks!

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 11 2022 16:16 utc | 4

If you live close to a military base in Poland (there are many) particularly those that have recently been entertaining UK and US guests, move.

Just where to when it escalates is a difficult one but do not be under any illusion this is not a Polish or Lithuanian sign of support for their Ukrainian neighbours (if this is genuine threat) it is another sign of how leaders of countries are so very easily bought by US dollars and empty promises

Posted by: Peter | May 11 2022 16:20 utc | 5

Was there not a warning whomever interfered with the special military operation would face a lightning quick response?

Would this include Poland and Lithuania?

As soon as they enter...with no time to make peace with thier God.

If they enter Ukraine as has been warned against, it would not be an Article five issue?

JD

Posted by: JohnDough | May 11 2022 16:28 utc | 6

It would seem to me that anything that Poland does militarily at this point would only be on orders from on high, that is, the US high command. While it is true that Poland has been obstreperous inside the EU sometimes, its NATO-integrated military is something else; it has no independence whatsoever.

Also, the idea of Poland occupying East Galicia with the intention of annexing it is not possible either, because whatever it does, NATO's policy at this point has to be to insist on the absolute sacredness of Ukraine's 1991 boundaries. It can't change the boundaries on the west side while claiming to protect the inviolability of the ones on the east side. While some mostly older Poles might express irrendentism and nostalgia about Wilno and Lwow, that is like the German nostalgia for Stettin, Danzig, Breslau, and Konigsberg, something used as a nationalist grievance in the national victimology but completely not actionable. Poland has no interest either in acquiring an area with an alien population when modern Poland is an almost ethnically-pure ethnostate, a status which is nationalist heaven.

Of course, if, at a later date, Ukraine collapses completely and boundaries start to shift elsewhere, then this stance may change. I would think, though, that the sacredness of boundaries guaranteed by the US, except when the US itself wishes to violate them, is likely to remain a basic feature of US foreign policy and therefore also of NATO policy. It is in the interest of the US as a status-quo power until now to treat national boundaries as sacred as they also help it to divide and rule. National boundaries provide it with an excuse to intervene, and that excuse would be weakened by any US or NATO disregard for the sacredness of national boundaries in principle. While the US itself frequently violates national borders by all kinds of interventions and invasions, that is because its rules-based order only has rules for others to submit to, not itself.

Posted by: Cabe | May 11 2022 16:29 utc | 7

The question is, what will Ukrainians do in face of Polish invaders, should that (backstabbing) invasion take place? It's worth remembering that, in 1944, even the original Baderites saw the Poles as the greatest enemy, not the Germans, not the Red Army. Still a raw topic that hits nerves, as I understand it.

Posted by: hk | May 11 2022 16:34 utc | 8

The initial Russian intelligence report was that polish troops would seize strategic installations from units of the ukie national guard (nazi's). This is because they know that Ukraine is close to collapse and they fear a civil war in the west of the country with the banderits taking control. If Poland does enter the Western parts of the country it is a sign that the western elites have written of Ukraine for good.

Posted by: nook | May 11 2022 16:34 utc | 9

The parallels between the start of WW2 are so absurdly obvious that it is truly if this whole thing was planned.

The actions of Poland, harrassing and terrorizing the German Free-City of Danzig after getting the nod of approval from western powers in London, stoked the fire of Nazis and so they promptly moved to liberate this area. The result brought the west into the war against Germany.

Now, we have Poland again, at the behest of NATO, seeking annexation outside of its territory because of deluded Polish Nationalism and some perceived wrong against it.

In both cases, you had a maverick force which would not play ball with the western system goaded into a war which will go global and take the lives of not just millions this time but billions.

Are we supposed to be laughing that history is repeating itself?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 16:37 utc | 10

The US etc. is using Poland (and the UK) as cover to try to claim they aren't responsible in any way and even that they were against it.

That's why the NYT have those articles. Purely to control the narrative.

Meanwhile the money and arms flow from the US & co. to Ukraine.

It is not in any way a sign of deescalation lest anyone mistake it for such.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 11 2022 16:39 utc | 11

@Petri Krohn (2). Almost certainly so, I suspect, as it was the case in various other languages (eg Minenwerfer in German being the term for certain forms of mortars esp during WW1). Curious if "mines" in Russian is a generic term for mortar shells.

Posted by: hk | May 11 2022 16:41 utc | 12

Galicia

Don't know why some consider Poland taking part of Ukraine as a conspiracy theory. Do they think that only Erdogan pulls stunts like that? Both Poland and Turkey historically had much larger borders. I doubt that Poland desires to preserve Stalin's land grab.

Having said this, I do not see Poland going into Ukraine.

Any Polish incursion could only be done under the guise of 'peace keeping'. Since Russia has not made any moves to west Ukraine, there is no cover for a Polish peacekeeping force.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | May 11 2022 16:45 utc | 13

US Empire leaders always cloak activity with a Hollywood movie frame of mind. War, subversion, assassination, etc is a struggle of imagined virtue against the forces of imagined evil. Chaos, destruction, misery and death will be required for virtue to prevail.
If the war for imagined virtue is being lost, then it will be transformed into a component battle within a greater war for greater imagined virtue.

Posted by: mijj | May 11 2022 16:54 utc | 14

@Christian Chubs (13).

Poles didn't need nor look for a cover when they seized Teschen in 1938. I do wonder how much appetite Polish population today actually has for seizing their "historical" lands, though: in 1920, the current Western Ukraine had a large Polish minority. After WW2, they were forcibly relocated, mostly resettled in current western Poland, formerly eastern Germany, and almost all of the ppl with any actual connections have doubtlessly died out...

Posted by: hk | May 11 2022 16:56 utc | 15

Russia doesn't own Ukraine.
If Poland goes into Galicia - which is the most anti-Russian part of Ukraine - so what?
It's not a NATO operation for one thing rather a Polish one, nor is it a NATO declaration of war against Russia.

If Russia attacks Polish forces on Ukrainian soil in Galicia (though one wonders why they would bother unless Poland starts attacking Russian troops from Galicia) there is no reason why NATO should regard this as an attack on Poland since this will not be taking place on Polish territory.

Looks like b's Feb 24th call was prescient.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 16:57 utc | 16

If the Empire of Lies and Chaos continues to escalate then nuclear war is inevitable.

How can America's insistence on escalation be interrupted?

1) America runs out of ways to escalate. Since America has nukes that means nuclear war.

2) Uprising in the US... OK, you can stop laughing now.

3) Russia surrenders.

4) Russia does a significant but limited first strike to remind people in the Empire what the results of a real nuclear attack look like. My recommendation would be to take out NATO bases in Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European states, and perhaps Ramstein too just to drive the point home.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 11 2022 16:58 utc | 17

Wow,

REPOST:
Thanks Richard for linking to yeasterday's Gonzalo Lira, he's always good but that one is straight to the point, and to me the best he did so far :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_3H5VSllMM

And for those that are speculating of Lira being compremised somehow, please back that claim whit a bit more that his few days disapearance.

Near the end of the video, Gonzalo is making fun about the possibility of Russia backing Banderists fighting a guerrilla war against a polish occupation in Galicia. I had a laught..

..And a second tought... holy shit ! that may well be the more realistic scenario...

Posted by: malamatias | May 11 2022 17:00 utc | 18

Posted by: William Gruff | May 11 2022 16:58 utc | 17
"My recommendation would be to take out NATO bases in Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European states, and perhaps Ramstein too just to drive the point home."

How about giving them fair warning first, like:

'Between 24 and 72 hours from now we will drop a small nuclear bomb on Guam to demonstrate your inability to prevent any such attack anywhere in the world. You have been warned!'

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 17:04 utc | 19

If the American proxy of Poland does invade Ukraine, the Russians should organize a partisan guerilla movement to drive the Polish occupation army out.

They can funnel weapons to this anti-Polish guerilla movement, provide military advisors for it, and even organize a mass media campaign to support these Ukrainian freedom fighters against the Poles.

This media campaign can even include some catchy blue and yellow color-coded hashtags like #SupportUkraine or #StandWithUkraine.

Slava Ukraini!

Posted by: ak74 | May 11 2022 17:05 utc | 20

Looks like Kolomoiskyy directed Zelenskyy to Squeeze and BlackMail Germany to Ship and Pay More:


Germany Energy Regulator Reports NatGas Volumes Via Ukraine Fell by Almost 25% on Wednesday

MadMax Reference:

Kolomoiskyy: "Who Owns Deutschland?";
Scholz&TrampolinaBaerbock: "Herr Biden und Herr Zelenskyy own Deutschland, Jawol.";
K: "Who Owns Biden and Zelenskyy?";
S&TB: "You, Herr Kolomoiskyy, Own Herr Biden and Herr Zelenskyy.";
K: "Again, Who Owns Deutschland?";
S&TB: (Pause) "...Herr Kolomoiskyy Owns Deutschland...";

Posted by: IronForge | May 11 2022 17:05 utc | 21

Everyone wrongly assumes that Poland has a saying in this entire affairs. It does not. The decisions will be made in Washington D.C. and conveyed to Polish government who has been in US pocket for decades now. And from US perspective Poland entering western Ukraine has a lot of sense.
Ukraine is slowly running out of soldiers and materiel to continue this war, it would be harder and harder to convince the remaining population of Ukraine to send their sons and husband to the eastern meatgrinder.
With influx of fresh forces and equipment US can achieve its goal to keep this war running and as they stated repeatedly "weaken Russia".
Poland is nearly ready for that, as for historical reasons they are very much Russophobic and both government and the press had done outstanding work in stirring those sentiments to the extreme.
Moreover, Poles are not exactly famous for making rational decisions about the future of their country and possible consequences of their decisions (at least they are now in good company in Europe), so I think the scenario where they enter Ukraine seems pretty realistic.
The question is what would Russia do?
On one hand they may be ok with it since there is nothing of value in western Ukraine anyway and at least they would not have to deal with Banderistan that the west Ukraine is - that would be a problem for Poles.
On the other hand they may use this opportunity to give NATO forces a bloody nose, and a lesson to remember.
Poland would be considered as an attacking force in this conflict therefore they would not be protected by the Article 5 of the NATO, despite what they may be telling their own population, and I think it will be very, very hard to convince anyone else in EU to intervene even if Russians start sending Kindzhals Warsaw way.
Would be interesting to watch this development.

Posted by: Erin Ate | May 11 2022 17:08 utc | 22

Thanks for the update, b. I just wanted to comment on two things. First, when the NYT says, “this is driven not by desire for autonomy from American power but in service to it,” I think of Canadian analyst, Patrick Armstrong. If NATO accuses the other guy of doing it, it can be assumed that the truth is the reverse. I speculate that might be true here.

On that note, with the talk of Polish-Lithuanian territorial adjustments, I am reminded of German president, Steinmeier. Back in April, in the most extraordinary case of European geopolitical weirdness, he is dis-invited, barricaded, from the city of Kiev, from meeting with the Kiev regime. As DW notes, “Steinmeier had planned to visit the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, alongside the heads of state of Poland and the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.”

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-controversy-over-steinmeier-visit-sparks-debate-in-germany/a-61459870

Then several days ago, it’s reported that Steinmeier had a “good, constructive, important” conversation with Zelensky (who I presume still represents the Kiev regime that the Kremlin speaks of). Could this new American editorial slant be partially influenced by that discussion?

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-conflict-steinmeier-and-zelenskyy-have-good-constructive-important-conversation/a-61696571

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | May 11 2022 17:08 utc | 23

thanks b.... this is like a neocon wet dream... it has all the ingredients..

ditto @ 4 psychohistorian and @ 7 cabe commentary.. thanks you two...

if realism was followed, we wouldn't be where we are now.. sad to say, but the only realists in here seem to be the russians who have held off doing anything for as long as possible.. i really don't think they are going to back down here either as others have noted, this is an existential threat to them.. of course this is the dying days of usa empire and their batting ram - nato) too, so perhaps the crazies at the top of this empire feel it is an existential threat to their empire too.. that leaves ordinary people to ponder what to do.. which brings me to @ 17 william gruffs commentary.... that is the reality at this point... if nothing gives, something is going to give... what will it be?

Posted by: james | May 11 2022 17:09 utc | 24

That brings the total to some $53 billion for Ukraine.

Makes you wonder…… why Jill Biden went to Ukraine just days before the $40B increase was approved……..I guess he couldn’t send Hunter……to collect for the……Big Guy ……

Posted by: Down South | May 11 2022 17:11 utc | 25

Scorpion @19
Still many escalation steps for RF short of nuclear war. Conversely NATO has few escalation steps short of full-scale conventional attack that Russia can't top.

If a demonstration or reality-check for NATO is in the cards, one might still favor a news conference giving crew of shiny new UK aircraft carrier in Portsmouth 1 hour to abandon ship before Russia sends a Kinzhal through the deck. Perhaps without a warhead, just a kinetic strike. Demonstrating that anywhere in Europe is within reach and can't be countered by NATO air defense.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 11 2022 17:12 utc | 26

Poland and Lithuania incursions will not be fully sanctioned by US although they obviously given their tacit approval. However no matter the cover Russia shouldn't tolerate foreign forces to interrupt it's SMO in Ukraine risking both their service members lives and paid in blood gains.

If such forces have clearly went past the borders i think it should be okay for Russia to destroy them rather than let the rats split themselves and embedding into Ukrainian forces.
Only when that Poland or Lithuania dared to attack Russia directly from its territories should Russia threatened them with nuclear reprisals.

Posted by: Lucci | May 11 2022 17:13 utc | 27

@Petri Krohn (2)
The Russian word "mina" (мина) means both a mine and a grenade or artillery shell. Google translate however always translates it as "mine", even if the "mines" are raining down from the sky. I do not think the Ukrainian troops in defensive positions are wounded by landmines. Most likely the NYT reporter is referring to a faulty translation.
As for artillery the word only refers to the mortar shells, never a granade or any other type of artillery. Mortar literally translates as "mine thrower" (minomyot - миномёт) in Russian. So I agree they probably meant mortar shells.

Posted by: Rus | May 11 2022 17:14 utc | 28

I think this is all proceeding more or less along the lines the Russians have been expecting. They've held off staging a full scale invasion of Ukraine because they believed and still believe that the Ukraine part of the Empire's war against Russia would expand into, at minimum, a Polish entry into the war. Poland has entered every US military adventure and it will enter this war as well since there is little down-side. I don't think Russia will attack Poland if it enters the war but will attack Polish troops in Ukraine.

Beyond that I don't know what will happen. I do know that Washington will want the Poles to intervene in Western Ukraine to set up a protected area that can be used by Washington to arm and train mercenaries and what is left of the Ukrainian military to counter-attack Russia over the summer months with enough pretend victories to help the Democrats limit loses in Congress. However, the wild card lies with the US mainstream media. If, as b suggests, the media becomes more "realistic" in its analysis of the situation that means there is an ongoing power-struggle among the elites. Any deviation by any outlet in the US is always a sign of a power struggle among factions within the Deep/Imperial State. The NYT has, at times, lurched in the direction of realism in the past since it is closer to the Pentagon than the other outlets who are all largely controlled by the intel agencies and their minions in the contractor community.

Since I have a lot of experience with Washington let me say that war as an enterprise is central to the Washington scene not because people who work in the field are particularly malevolent or ideological but because that is where the money is. Dividing the world into two basic forces (the good guys vs. bad guys) is easy and thus works as the only unifying force in the USA. This was the great insight of the neoconservatives--they could bring unity and purpose to the country that no other faction brought and thus they are and will continue to rule the National Security State, the WH, Congress, and most of the media. All expansions of State power in Washington has been the direct result of war.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | May 11 2022 17:15 utc | 29

@petri Krohn comment 2

As you say The word mine in Russian can be translated as landmine, sea mine or mortar bomb, as another commentator said it is probably a translation of the German minenwerfer (bomb thrower) - the Russian for mortar is minoomet (миномёт - also literally translated as bomb thrower) - so the casualty report refers to wounds caused by mortars

From what I remember the bulk of casualties in the two world wars were caused by artillery and mortars this report is therefore consistent with this

Posted by: Aslangeo | May 11 2022 17:18 utc | 30

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | May 11 2022 17:08 utc | 23

It seems that the policies driving this from the West have equal hatred for both Germans and Russians.

Historical grievances???

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 17:19 utc | 31

Here's a good firsthand testimony from a Quebecois-french canadian soldier who was fighting with sniper Wali. Very instructive for those wondering what's really happening on the ground. The Ukrainian armed forces are retreating everywhere and getting obliterated. I quote: "hell, KIA's and shitload of WIA daily"... They were in the east before the Russians picking up tempo and starting phase 2.
https://youtu.be/zN2NdiFJFh0

Seems not many options left for Pentagon and NATO planners besides escalation and direct heavy lifting. The VSU will not hold much longer in my opinion.

Posted by: Boss tweet | May 11 2022 17:20 utc | 32

Ukraine with the second largest army in NATO, after 8 years of being pumped full of the latest weaponry and training has been pretty much dismantled by Russia in two and a half months.

In this military comparison with Ukraine , Poland scores lower on all the key indexes (prior to the SMO).

Military Stats: compare key data on Poland & Ukraine

I’m not a military strategist but what do the Poles think they’re going to achieve against the Russians that the Ukraine couldn’t?

Unless they have reached some sort of an agreement with the Russians to divide up Ukraine between the Russian East and the Russophobic West (which I doubt the Russians wanted anyway) I can’t see any way in which Poland succeeds in a war with Russia.

Am I missing something here?

Posted by: Down South | May 11 2022 17:26 utc | 33

Well there’s this:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/05/10/russias-monstrous-ideology-must-defeated//

Polish leadership appears to be getting high on its own supply. I’m starting to wonder if DC has as much control over their NATO allies as it thinks it does. I don’t follow Polish media or politics so I’m in no position to assess but I do wonder how the internal situation is after Brexit. A lot of poles were in the UK as workers. Maybe the Polish government is getting nervous and there’s nothing like a splendid little war to recapture “historical” lands to refocus a population’s angst. Not to mention the creeping publicity of Ukrainian atrocities against Poles with a million plus Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

IMO there may be some geopolitical benefit to Russia from a Polish incursion into western Ukraine. How does NATO square that circle? How does it stop Hungary and Romania from taking their slices? How long until the right sector/Azov types rekindle their feud with the Poles in the name of Bandera? Yes, it puts NATO in western Ukraine but does it change the strategic balance significantly? What’s the cost/benefit ratio for NATO in that scenario?

I think one could make a strong argument that it undermines NATO integrity more than it helps its position relative to Russia. I also think it runs a serious risk of destabilizing central Eastern Europe which isn’t really Russia’s problem.

Posted by: Lex | May 11 2022 17:28 utc | 34

Cultural Marxism is the platform of the Democrat party. The BLM riots in 2020 and the fake virus were both used by marxists to illegally change voting procedures which effectively stole the election. Trump was against war in Ukraine. Clearly Marxism and Zionism are the main isms at work. The criminal democrat party and “Biden” junta are responsible for the war. ( To all the Marx historians and people who can’t accept new widely used terminology, please do not reply asking why this is Marxism, I won’t be responding)

Posted by: Obamavirus | May 11 2022 17:29 utc | 35

Thanks once again b.

This all just proves Putin's original points. Multiple attempts at a peaceful negotiation were spurned and when agreements were made, not only ignored, but the shelling of Donbass ramped up from the west. The lessons once again are:

1) The only language that NATOFUKUS and our state-affiliated media understand is that of military force and violence.

2) The US and by extension NATOFUK are not agreement capable.

So we're coming full-circle.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:33 utc | 36

Posted by: Obamavirus | May 11 2022 17:29 utc | 35

Blah blah blah blah. Someone obviously doesn't understand how important Zionism was to Trump's presidency.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:34 utc | 37

Posted by: Down South | May 11 2022 17:26 utc | 33

After reading the links provided by b, I think the point is that Poland has no intent to go to war directly with Russia, but instead against severely weakened Ukraine in the aim to achieve a land grab. But that could be wrong too...

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:36 utc | 38

Ukraine with the second largest army in NATO, after 8 years of being pumped full of the latest weaponry and training has been pretty much dismantled by Russia in two and a half months.

[snip]

Posted by: Down South | May 11 2022 17:26 utc | 33


Well, as Pentagon spokesbot John Kirby tells us, the 404 armed forces have been "Westernized."

Truer words have never been spoken, however unintentionally.

Posted by: malenkov | May 11 2022 17:36 utc | 39

So, question: if Russia knew beforehand that the Ukes were planning on an assault in the Donbass in early March, and that is why Russia preempted them with their invasion on the 24th Feb., then, what does that mean if Russia knows Poland is prepping something for 10 days from now?

Does that mean Putin will not wait, as he has repeatedly made clear, and that open war with NATO is imminent?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 17:38 utc | 40

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:36 utc | 38

That could be the case but in order to achieve a successful land grab in Ukraine without triggering a war with Russia, there needs to be some sort of prior arrangement with the Russians to divide up Ukraine along the lines I outlined above.

The Russians have kept their cards very close to their chest so far.

Posted by: Down South | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 41

@William Gruff #17
I have a completely different view on what the US/EU are doing with respect to Ukraine.
My view is that they're happy to dump their junk to the Ukrainians and then to appropriate funds "for Ukrainians" but really which just pay off the junk passed off.
Equally, the economic sanctions that are degrading the lives of Americans and Europeans are great because high energy prices justify more scamiferous alternative energy schemes.
Note that both of these areas of activity: war material and funding, and economic sanctions, actively funnel cash to key corporate constituencies in these Western nations.
Thus the "escalation" you cite is nothing more than posturing for the purpose of fleecing their own populations.
Going from this, to outright warfare with Russia, is 10 steps too far.
Even the intercession of Poland into Ukraine would be fantastic - it would crystallize for many Ukrainians just how bathetic their present government is: "We had to destroy Ukraine in order to save it".

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 42

Can't wait to see Malcolm Nance come home in a body bag. At least that would be a positive outcome of this war.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/05/10/john-kiriakou-info-warrior-malcolm-nance/

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 43

If poland and Lithuania indeed would do that.

Then nato and the eu will implode. The assumption that the majority would support such a move is nonsense.

Remember. After ww 2 the allied forces gave prussia to poland. And you will see a immediate internal fighting erupting in europe with countries who are not okay with it.

If poland does do this, it will only with the support of the usa and the uk.

On the other side, an aggressive action of a few nato members will lead to an rusdian declaration of war. And yes with the use of nuclear weapons if needed.

But most people are forgetting something.
Nato is not able to fight and win a war with russia. The west, with exception of the usa has barely armies left, as they are destroyed by austerity. Even when they want to, they are not able to mobilize , and lots of their firepower only exists on paper.

Meanwhile the same countries have depleted their own stockpiles to support Ukraine.

The truth is, to rebuilt nato to a standard it realky could beat the rf armed forces, they need at least 15 years. To rebuilt it they need money they do not have.

And they won't beat russia, because that would lead to a nuclear exchange and lead to MAD. on the other hand, russia is very well capable to take Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

And this is also my advise for poetin. The west is speculating in poland taking west Ukraine. (And No, hungary does not want this, or agree with it)

Than russia should put a few million soldiers on the borders with Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Because there are now roughly 100.000 nato soldiers ready for war, but take a good look what kind of troops that are?

Mostly light troops, who can not hold long against russia, for sure not now their stockpiles are depleted.

The reality 8s that only poland has an heavy American corps to defend it, and that corps can't reach the baltic states if russia closes the sulwaki gap.

The front nato needs to defend is so big, from Moldova to Finland, that they simply can't do it.

But it would ask a terrible price from Russia if this came to a fight.

But my advise for russia is to rise the stakes, and make the polish armed forces stay within its own borders.

And this is with exception of the usa reality for all European armies.

Read the article in it, and see how worse it is.

https://twitter.com/MarcChavannes/status/1458412945109659651?s=19

Posted by: Bas vos | May 11 2022 17:44 utc | 44

Have relatives in Poland , and have for years asked for neutrality in Poland. Poland has developed a prosperous economy and people are doing well..Why again become the Bulls Eye in a conflict and destroy what you have built over the years ?

Posted by: Sigmund | May 11 2022 17:44 utc | 45

The obvious initial comment ought to be plans based on inaccurate assessments of the battlefield are doomed to failure, and the Washington politicos are deeply immersed in their pool of bullshit, as are their NATO underlings. The Polish gambit is merely the Snake Island ploy on a larger scale--Russia most likely will eliminate those forces as soon as they enter Ukraine, which it can do rather easily with its aerospace & missile forces alone. My prediction: As soon as the leading elements of the assault columns are hit, the train will stop and retreat inside Poland because those troops aren't going to commit suicide--remember, all NATO troops are green and have never seen their comrades blown up in front of their eyes, which is tremendously sobering. They have no motivation based on threats to their homeland, which will cause them to break and retreat regardless what their generals in the rear scream over the radio. Furthermore, to avoid that sort of fiasco--provided the planners are smart enough--a great deal of AD assets will need to be deployed on the Polish side of the border in anticipation of Russia's retaliation, and we've seen how efficient Russia's forces are when it comes to eliminating AD assets. Would that be enough to trigger Article 5?

As I've written over the past weeks, the Outlaw US Empire's plan is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian then to the last European. Then there's Russia's security minimums that suggest it won't tolerate any NATO member abutting its borders, or Belarus's or now Ukraine's, particularly if the southern portion of historical Russia wants to rejoin it. On a deeper level is the attempt to enforce a colonial-type dependency onto the EU enforced by NATO and its master the Outlaw US Empire and its UK stooge, which is what this affair is really all about--the desperate attempt by the Outlaw US Empire to keep some measure of its hegemony as the multipolar world overtakes it. Lavrov and others at MFA as well as Putin spoke recently about this, which is a new aspect being voiced publicly, although people like Patrushev and Galzyev have said this for several years.

As for the money being appropriated, as b says it will go to MIC and the bill given to whatever remains of Ukraine, with 10% provided as bribes to those at the top (in Poland and elsewhere too) to stiffen their spines.

So, in a few days we'll see military exercises begin in Poland to warm up and motivate the invasion forces in an attempt to overcome their greenness, then towards the end of the month, the FTX will drop its training aspect and the operation will commence. Hopefully, wiser heads will dissuade the politicos, but the latter are so stoned on their shit I doubt they'll heed any such advice, and the disaster will ensue.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 17:44 utc | 46

Today's

Saker SITREP Operation Z - 11May2022CE

Posted by: IronForge | May 11 2022 17:47 utc | 47

Posted by: Down South | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 41

Yes it would be complicated. In fact, I don't know that a NATO member would even be 'allowed' to negotiate with Russia for the purpose of an agreed division of Ukraine. But the between-the-lines message I took from reading the full articles (and your OP/question) was that this is the aim. Again, though, who knows at this juncture. As you have said, Russia is keeping its cards close to the chest. But couching the incursion in language like "peace keeping" mission reads to me like Poland is intentionally not trying to provoke Russia, but rather seeks to gain something it wants while the Russians quell Donbas and prevent what is presently Ukraine from joining NATO. Maybe I'm being naively optimistic.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:48 utc | 48

@42 c1ue

It is nice to see your postings again.

Good comment.

Kabuki theater/back-room arrangement between the west and Russia?

Or is Russia left out of the discussion?

If Russia is unaware of this, then I think the potential for a misreading of the situation by Russia would prompt a direct military response which, as we all know, would escalate rather quickly.

So your theory here assumes Russia is involved and knows the game is afoot, otherwise the Allies would not gamble with this strat knowing the Russians are done fucking around.

If that is the case, what a cynical use of human life on both sides and where Ukraine is the idiot, unbeknownst to them, at the poker table!

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 17:50 utc | 49

@42 c1ue

It is nice to see your postings again.

Good comment.

Kabuki theater/back-room arrangement between the west and Russia?

Or is Russia left out of the discussion?

If Russia is unaware of this, then I think the potential for a misreading of the situation by Russia would prompt a direct military response which, as we all know, would escalate rather quickly.

So your theory here assumes Russia is involved and knows the game is afoot, otherwise the Allies would not gamble with this strat knowing the Russians are done fucking around.

If that is the case, what a cynical use of human life on both sides and where Ukraine is the idiot, unbeknownst to them, at the poker table!

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 17:50 utc | 50

On the Lord of War document, I recall someone pointing out that the date year on the document had been changed from 2021 to 2022, the last 2 written over the 1.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2022 17:51 utc | 51

The current Deputy Prime Minister of Poland, Jaroslaw Kaczynski's, twin brother was the President of Poland when his plane crashed in 2010 while approaching Smolensk Air Base in Russia. Jaroslaw blames Putin and would like nothing better than to see Russia suffer. You can bet Jaroslaw is lobbying for intervention by Poland. Not to mention Lviv used to be part of Poland and the Poles would be happy to get it back.

Posted by: 10 to 1 | May 11 2022 17:51 utc | 52

I think Russia and Poland have agreed at the Rau-Lavrov meeting before the war to divide Ukraine.

Posted by: Balkanizer | May 11 2022 17:52 utc | 53

The etymology of the word "mine" is interesting. Originally it referred to digging or mining for metals in the ground. Medieval siege warfare gave it a new meaning, which has survived in the English language as the word undermine.

Google dictionary gives this definition for the word for the word mine:

a subterranean passage under the wall of a besieged fortress, especially one in which explosives were placed to blow up fortifications.

Later "mine" came to mean any explosive device placed in the ground or in the sea.

Rus + hk + Aslangeo | May 11 2022 17:18 utc | 30

As you say The word mine in Russian can be translated as landmine, sea mine or mortar bomb, as another commentator said it is probably a translation of the German minenwerfer (bomb thrower) - the Russian for mortar is minoomet (миномёт - also literally translated as bomb thrower)

This transition of meaning seams to have happened simultaneously in multiple European languages. I do not know what language is the original. Google suggests Middle Dutch ondermineren.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 11 2022 17:55 utc | 54

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:36 utc | 38

This is a good point, and it goes to a question I have long had about this Polish invasion:

Does Poland NOT expect Russia to attack their troops? If Russia intends to attack their troops, then however many battalions of Poles there are will all be struck by long-range, probably hypersonic missiles, causing hundreds if not thousands of Polish casualties immediately.

Does Poland not realize this? What is their plan? To counter? Would there be no pushback at all domestically to such a hare-brained and diastrous campaign, ending with the death of hundreds of young Polish men?

Maybe Russia will NOT respond to any Polish invasion. The issue here, though, is that Putin stated that any intervention in the SMO would be met with immediately and decisively--"and these decisions have already been made". This does not give Putin a lot of leeway in his response, it seems to me.

Can somebody help me out here? Unless Poland SOMEHOW has strong assurances that Russia won't blow their troops out of the water the second they cross the Ukrainian border, then I fail to see WHY Poland would ever undertake such a foolish operation, destined to end in defeat and many hundreds of casualities.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2022 17:56 utc | 55

Well, guess the fools will get what they've been lusting for; A bigger and better war. Maybe we'll all see around the 22nd. The money coffers will be stuffed..
Thanks b.

Posted by: vetinLA | May 11 2022 17:57 utc | 56

@Down South | May 11 2022 17:26 utc | 33

The Russian won't hold back against Poland. I do not think Poland will attack. It sounds too insane.

Posted by: Sundial | May 11 2022 18:00 utc | 57

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 42

"
Equally, the economic sanctions that are degrading the lives of Americans and Europeans are great because high energy prices justify more scamiferous alternative energy schemes.
Note that both of these areas of activity: war material and funding, and economic sanctions, actively funnel cash to key corporate constituencies in these Western nations.
Thus the "escalation" you cite is nothing more than posturing for the purpose of fleecing their own populations.
Going from this, to outright warfare with Russia, is 10 steps too far.
"

Well said. Sounds right on.

The Polish business is going to be interesting to watch - if indeed anything happens. I gather the Poles and Galicians have hated each other since forever...

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 18:05 utc | 58

Posted by: c1ue | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 42

Whatever alternative energy scams may be in the works, and there most likely are, we recently installed several PV arrays and an inverter to hedge against rising electricity prices in the long run. Got a pretty good deal from a newer company that I chose based on the credentials of the principals, product offerings and bonding capability. Should pay for itself in 6 years and my only concerns are with the warranty given how new the company is. That said, the array manufacturer does guarantee their product for 12 years.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 18:11 utc | 59

The Polish gambit is merely the Snake Island ploy on a larger scale--Russia most likely will eliminate those forces as soon as they enter Ukraine, which it can do rather easily with its aerospace & missile forces alone.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 17:44 utc | 46

Unless those in command are completely devoid of autonomous decision making, any Poles entering Western Ukraine can be certain that Russia will respond violently.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Russian-ambassador-to-Poland-hit-with-red-paint-17158773.php

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 11 2022 18:14 utc | 60

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 11 2022 17:55 utc | 54

mine (v.1)

c. 1300, minen, "to dig a tunnel under fortifications to overthrow them," from mine (n.1) or from Old French miner "to dig, mine; exterminate," from the French noun. From mid-14c. as "to dig in the earth" (in order to obtain minerals, treasure, etc.). Figurative meaning "ruin or destroy by slow or secret methods" is from mid-14c. Transitive sense of "to extract by mining" is from late 14c. For the sense of "to lay (explosive) mines," see mine (v.2). Related: Mined; mining.


mine (v.2)

"lay explosives," 1620s, in reference to old tactic of tunneling under enemy fortifications to blow them up; a specialized sense of mine (v.1) via a sense of "dig under foundations to undermine them" (late 14c.), and miner in this sense is attested from late 13c. Related: Mined; mining.

mine (n.2)

"explosive device," by 1866 in reference to submarine weapons (at first not distinguished from torpedoes), from mine (v.2). By 1890 as "land-mine, explosive device placed on the ground (or just under it) as a weapon."

From etymology online. I can't find any overt ties to Middle Dutch there, but the timeframes don't exclude it.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 18:18 utc | 61

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 16:37 utc | 10

So, we have a Hitler fan with a revisionist history.

Potential Polish intervention in Galicia is more akin to taking of Zaolzie from Chechoslovakia in 1938.

Posted by: RJB | May 11 2022 18:19 utc | 62

Douglas MacGregor's latest piece:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-threat-of-polish-involvement-in-ukraine/

"Ten weeks after the conflict began, it is instructive to re-examine the strategic picture. The war against Russia in Ukraine has evolved, but not in the way Western observers predicted. Ukrainian forces look shattered and exhausted. The supplies reaching Ukrainian troops fighting in Eastern Ukraine are a fraction of what is needed. In most cases, replacements and new weapons are destroyed long before they reach the front.

Confronted with the unambiguous failure of U.S. assistance and the influx of new weapons to rescue Ukrainian forces from certain destruction, the Biden administration is desperate to reverse the situation and save face. Poland seems to offer a way out. More important, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have both expressed the desire to erase the borders between Poland and Ukraine."

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 18:23 utc | 63

I'm among those of you who are more than a little baffled by the idea of a Polish incursion.

It's pretty clear that the UKie nationalist right has been playing a disproportionately large role in setting Ukrainian goals, or that their goals have been consonant with those of the NATO bloc, i.e. bleed Russia, breakup economic ties between Russia and Europe. But doesn't a Polish incursion threaten to set off the most Ur-level hostility among UKie rightists? As others have pointed out, in Banderite mythology the "recovery of land lost to Poland" is a key theme, and there are tens of thousands of dead Poles c. WWII testifying to it. Is there some way this demographically jiggered and pitched as a return of people who are "really Ukrainian"? But to what end?

At any rate, why would the Russians bother with them when they have such ann alliance-disruptive potential?

Posted by: dadooronron | May 11 2022 18:23 utc | 64

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 18:05 utc | 58

The Polish business is going to be interesting to watch - if indeed anything happens. I gather the Poles and Galicians have hated each other since forever...

You are mixing apples and cucumbers here.
Poles are an ethnic group, Galicia (the land of jackdaws) is name of the historical region, currently divided between 3 countries.
A Pole is Galician if he lives there like everybody else.
Did you perhaps mean Poles and Rusyns (aka "Ukrainians" today) hated each other? Well Poles did engage in aggressive Polonization of Rusyns so I guess there was some reason for resentment.

Posted by: hopehely | May 11 2022 18:24 utc | 65

Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:36 utc | 38

On the part of Poland, opportunistic land grab is also my thought.
On the part of the US, it might be something like pushing a canary into a mine to see what happens.
Perhaps the US understands that full demilitarization and neutral status will occur so they want to salvage what parts of Ukraine they can. As it is a non Nato force US can choose to escalate or not if the Poles and Lithuanians get hammered.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 11 2022 18:24 utc | 66

IronForge (47)

This from the report.


Senator Richard Black spills the beans on Davos and the WEF, the USA’s inflation, and coming economic difficulty and admits the Ukrainian troops are just US proxy fighters.

How long this will stay up for is anyone’s guess.

https://twitter.com/apocalypseos/status/1523927620999475200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1523927620999475200%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesaker.is%2Fsitrep-operation-z-where-are-we%2F

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2022 18:27 utc | 67

Russia should be happy to give Western Ukraine to Poland. Russia & Poland have shared interest in eliminating Nazis. The Ukraine Nazis would be forced into a land-locked area between Polish-Ukraine & Russian-Ukraine. Nazi problem solved.

Posted by: Deplorable David Par | May 11 2022 18:31 utc | 68

The forty billion check has been issued, so the narrative has changed and will change even more. And do not say "aid" it is lend-lease, uncle Sam is all business, and the only business left for uncle Sam is war.

Posted by: Paco | May 11 2022 18:32 utc | 69

Posted by: hopehely | May 11 2022 18:24 utc | 65

Shld have said Banderistas versus Poles. They have bad blood, no?

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 18:32 utc | 70

@ RJB

No, I disagree.

Danzig and Western-Ukraine were/are non-Polish-speaking and hostile to Poles.

In both cases, deluded-nationalism is the driving force behind Poland's actions.

I say deluded-nationalism because a real nationalism would not be working at the behest of a globalist world order YOU THINk will honor you as an equal-partner.

Both the Turks and the Poles I would say are deluded-nationalists.

Only the Nazis (and now the Russians) were able to truly challenge the western world order because their nationalism was grounded in reality and understood the implications of being a "partner" to the globalist world order.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 18:33 utc | 71

@Posted by: William Gruff | May 11 2022 16:58 utc | 17

My recommendation, on the contrary, would be, as the Russians menaced with doing in case of interference, to nuke decission centers, that is Pentagon, Langley, and the WH, since nuking Ramstein, Poland and the Baltics would spread radiation way too close to Russia and the rest of Europe, harming the whole European population, while keeping "the problem" and origin of trouble in Europe and the world unsolved and free to cause more problems", thus a waste of time and effort....

A limited nuking of decission centers in the US will shock the poodles enough so that they either all of a sudden enter into reasoning, or are overthrown by their populations.

Until the US face the effects and destruction of all the wars it has started since...ever...nothing will change, there will not be any progress and improvement of human life on Earth.

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 11 2022 18:35 utc | 72

Does that mean Putin will not wait, as he has repeatedly made clear, and that open war with NATO is imminent?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 17:38 utc | 40

Poland and Lithuanian incursions will not be fully backed by NATO. Russia can destroy them once they crossed into Ukraine and it is not counted as NATO article 5.

If and only If the dumbasses in Poland insists to retaliate against Russian forces or territories directly from its own territories that'll necessitate Russia to destroy military targets inside Poland to neutralize threat against herself and that would be article 5 even if Poland clearly instigated it themselves.
If they claim article 5 then safe to say Russia should move into first strike. If Putin believe it is inevitable they're at war with whole NATO he will without fail then strike first (with nuclear).

Posted by: Lucci | May 11 2022 18:43 utc | 73

Does that mean Putin will not wait, as he has repeatedly made clear, and that open war with NATO is imminent?
Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2022 17:38 utc | 40

On one side of the coin, Poland annexing just Galicia would be boon to Russia as that is the homeland of the OUN which began life fighting the Poles. On the other side it brings the US a little closer to Russia.
Russia's response I think will depend on just how much of Ukraine Poland intends to take at this time.
Something to think about I guess is that Russia have not given any warnings other than to publicly tell Kiev/Ukraine what Poland's ultimate intentions are.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 11 2022 18:50 utc | 74

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2022 18:27 utc | 67

And FWIW, Richard Black has seen combat IIRC. Got a Purple Heart in Vietnam, so surely he understands proxy warfare.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 18:51 utc | 75

People still read this trash from b.

"Russia is back!"

Posted by: slothrop | May 11 2022 18:52 utc | 76

Compared to Langley and the White House, the Pentagon is a voice of reason.

Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2022 18:52 utc | 77

Posted by: slothrop | May 11 2022 18:52 utc | 76

Watch the V-2 flying over your head, Tyrone.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 18:52 utc | 78

It would be so typical of European history for Poland and Russia to have cut a secret deal for Galicia's return. By the way, no comment on the likelihood of it happening.

Posted by: morongobill | May 11 2022 18:56 utc | 79

"Deluded Nationalist" Is apt term to describe the idiots in Poland. For Turkey we get that they're once the centers of great Ottoman empire but for Poles? What is they overly prides themselves about?

Their idiocy is mind boggling they Helped Banderists that just few years prior they protests against, it behaves beligerently as if it could take on Russia, even when their allies is the very same ones it gets in WW2 that abandoned Poland to its fate.
Much of their belligerence are very similar to what it did to Germany before WW2. Assuming roles far bigger than it's own weight hoping that her badges of association would solve all her problems she creates.

Posted by: Lucci | May 11 2022 18:56 utc | 80

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:34 utc | 37

...and Trump had about the largest amount of Israeli passport holders in WH cabinet history...

Posted by: ERing46Z | May 11 2022 18:57 utc | 81

One aspect little touched on is who will be holding the hot potato known colloquially known as Ukraine's sovereign debt, built up rapidly since 2014 and going into overdrive currently?

If Poland were to snaffle the west whilst Russia gets the east and south, does this mean whoever gets the middle and north along with Kiev wins the booby prize? With a territory that has no hope in hell of generating enough taxation to repay it there will be some debt holders (EU, IMF, US even Russia) embarrassingly having to explain this extra cost they are having to write off.

Posted by: JohninMK | May 11 2022 18:57 utc | 82

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 17:42 utc | 43

You might not have to wait long, as there have been reports of volunteers of color showing up, getting dis-armed, and getting executed in the woods by the Ukies just for not being white.

Posted by: ERing46Z | May 11 2022 19:03 utc | 83

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 11 2022 18:50 utc | 74

If they took Kharkiv Russia would then share borders with Poland. We really still have no clue what they are planning to do with Lviv and Kiev. I assume Putin would want the Ukrainian government to be intact so it can carry on its own 'duty' towards the West that loaned them all those moneys and weapons.

Posted by: Lucci | May 11 2022 19:04 utc | 84

The Polish business is going to be interesting to watch - if indeed anything happens. I gather the Poles and Galicians have hated each other since forever...

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 18:05 utc | 58


It doesn't matter much whether Poles and Galicians hate each other. What really matters is how well they take orders from the likes of the USA.

Posted by: malenkov | May 11 2022 19:04 utc | 85

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 18:23 utc | 63

Did you not read b's article that you are commenting upon?

Posted by: Emily Dickinson | May 11 2022 19:04 utc | 86

It's not the first time that Poland sides with losers. But if it is foolish enough to enter this war, I believe that Russia would change its style of campaign from the current one. Poland can expect a far more scorched-earth treatment than Ukraine is currently undergoing. NATO may then go nuclear and be nuked or disintegrate.

Posted by: Steve | May 11 2022 19:05 utc | 87

The danger of NATO escalation will be realized, if it is to be, in a bid to prevent Russia from occupying the Odessa region - in the interests of maintaining seaports for Ukraine and NATO naval access to the Black Sea.

Posted by: jayc | May 11 2022 19:09 utc | 88

Posted by: JohninMK | May 11 2022 18:57 utc | 82

Ukraine's debt to the IMF was about $56Bn at the end of 2020. That's just $3Bn less than the current total (at least what's above-board) of "aid" approved from the US alone. Give it a few more months and I'm sure that these underwriters will happily restructure that debt in the form of a piece of the action in future "aid" packages.

I'm sure that the banksters who pull the levers of the World Bank and IMF have personal portfolios with plenty of 'exposure' to the MIC/arms industry.

https://educationcenter2000.com/Articles_Folder/Who_Owns_and_Controls_Military_Industrial_Complex.htm

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2022 19:11 utc | 89

The Outlaw US Empire has invested many decades--since 1945--and billions of dollars into making the OUN region of Ukraine into a Nazified Anti-Russia, and it won't just walk away from that effort as its other similar efforts show--and those efforts are global, not just restricted to Europe and Russia. As Paco said @69, it's all about business--Imperial business. One can obtain a glimpse of that business by reading the chronicle being compiled by Cyntia Chung, which is built upon the previous works of many others and isn't really a secret for those tenacious about discovering the Truth. Her latest installment, "CIA, NATO and the Great Heroin Coup: How Miami Became the Center of International Fascism and the Murder of President Kennedy", illuminates several aspects of that business that has made the Outlaw US Empire the #1 Criminal Syndicate on the planet which went hand-in-hand with it's also becoming the world's #1 Terrorist. And it is important to know that Terrorism preceded WW2 and is related to the USA's Colonial and Imperial expansion since its inception. Many have read Smedley Butler and his confessions of being a terrorist for the Banks and commodity corporations. The "Economic Hitman" and "Shock Doctrine" are also similar in their revelations. Hudson's Super Imperialism also documents the process. And in reality, none of the Outlaw US Empire's actions is new aside from the methods and technologies employed. As Hudson often notes, the US Empire's actions are very similar to Rome's, including its regime of terror.

In his presser yesterday, Lavrov announced Algeria has joined with Russia and other nations in the organization to defend the UN Charter from the depredations of the Outlaw US Empire. At today's presser, amongst other things Lavrov said:

"We hope and hope that the completion of our military operation to achieve all the goals set within its framework will help to stop the West's attempts to undermine international law, ignore and grossly violate the principles of the UN Charter, including the principle of the sovereign equality of states, and force the West to stop promoting a 'unipolar world' dominated by the United States and its allies.

"We must respect the cultural, confessional and civilizational diversity of the modern world. The era of colonialism is a thing of the past. This must be recognized." [My Emphasis]

The scope of events is global. Currently, Ukraine is but one major facet. The goal is to finish the job Putin stated was in progress one month ago:

"What's happening today? Today, the system of the unipolar world that developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union is being destroyed, that's what is most important." [My Emphasis]

Part of that system is NATO, and to finish the job, it must be eliminated too.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 90

I just can't believe how candid Senator Richard Black is in this interview he lets it all out.

Senator Black knows more about war than most with a long distinguished record in the field.

Scroll along to 3.13 to here the Senator speak.

https://odysee.com/Harley—Senator-Black:57a7be8e17c0dd0dcbf854dab8a60aa98302de69

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 91

US war gamers are rubbing their hands in satisfaction. "Ah, yes, it is all going to plan. The war between Russia and Europe will play out completely Over There, and then we can move in and loot, again".
All the Rand-type war games I have seen involve either Russia and Europe destroying each other Over There, or China and Japan/Australia/South Korea destroying each other Over There.
So far, it's going the way they want, imo, including the economic destruction of Western Europe.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 92

William Gruff@17 is correct.
As everyone in CND and most of the European left were once well aware if nuclear war breaks out the first targets are going to be in Europe.
Current Euro-behaviour is suicidal in several ways but none more than the complaisance with which the public, inexplicably unaware of the fact that its governments consist of US agents and fans of Imperialism, in equal quantities. And that, as such, they are indifferent to the fate of the, largely unwashed, people over whom fate, in its wisdom, has decreed that they should rule.

Nemesiscalling. In the interest of your education allow me to recommend
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/free/lobster81/lob81-scotland-churchill-hess-1941.pdf
Anyone interested in such questions as the origins of the War in 1939 and subsequent years, the foreign policies of Sweden and Finland and the many right wing attempts to remove Churchill as Prime Minister should read it.

Posted by: bevin | May 11 2022 19:13 utc | 93

Posted by: Emily Dickinson | May 11 2022 19:04 utc | 86

Good catch. Actually I did read it and put the link to McG's article up from there and then an hour or two later read the whole article not remembering that b had pasted some of it in.
My bad.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 11 2022 19:15 utc | 94

Re: Polish "peacekeeping" and Russia - it strikes me that if Poland enters Ukraine for whatever reason, as a NATO member Poland is then doing exactly what NATO has been so high and mighty about Russia - invading the sacred sovereign territory of a neighbor - at which point the entire moral edifice of the West's howling will be exposed for what it is. All these discussions lead me to wonder if it will and must be the West to first use nukes, as the weeks pass and the Western hysteria rises and rises.

There are many ways Russia could expose weaknesses to attacks without killing anyone or very few, though I sense that a clear demonstration that all naval ships anywhere are vulnerable to kinetic destruction would send an immediate and chilling message.....the question is, will this be done with prior warning and announcement as suggested above, ie "you have ten hours to leave the ship" or will it instead be something far far worse, as in, blasting one of the 13 US carriers? I doubt the latter, as Russia killing 5000 US sailors would be seen in the US as an act of war. However, who knows? Surely the Russians think by now the US and NATO arew directly at war with them, no?

Posted by: Boomheist | May 11 2022 19:17 utc | 95

Posted by: Lucci | May 11 2022 18:56 utc | 80

While I agree with the term deluded nationalists, I think you didn’t look at the map in b’s post. Poland from sea to sea. Polish army in Moscow in 1612. A memorial in the Red Square commemorates the event. That’s why they are nationalists. But they are deluded.

Posted by: RJB | May 11 2022 19:18 utc | 96

Petri Krohn @ 2
I do not think the Ukrainian troops in defensive positions are wounded by landmines. Most likely the NYT reporter is referring to a faulty translation.

Possibly but the Ukraine is the most mined country in the world. I could see units loosing track of minefields in the course of war.

Especially in the chaos of their leadership. In throwing new conscripts into the front with no training, I can easily see it happening.

Posted by: circumspect | May 11 2022 19:18 utc | 97

Being a bit more cynical; The Poles have seen that Zelensky's biching has got $53 billion dollars plus other aid from various sources, plus has eyes on another $600 billion from somewhere. They want in on the party.

"Gimme" is enough motivation for the Poles to join anything, particularly that finally, if they don't DO anything they can always claim they "didn't have enough of something", and so the elite should get fun-filled envelopes with massive personal cheques made out to "bearer", and free flights to Delaware.

Too simple?

Posted by: Stonebird | May 11 2022 19:23 utc | 98

Obamavirus @35

Don't bother to respond, you didn't say one true thing in your comment.

Posted by: TominAZ | May 11 2022 19:24 utc | 99

Posted by: jayc | May 11 2022 19:09 utc | 88

NATO has access to the Black Sea: Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.

Posted by: RJB | May 11 2022 19:25 utc | 100

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