About grain crisis.

USA turns more than 100 million tons of maize into fuel additive for cars -- 10% ethanol in gasoline.

Were there a serious attempt to a. stimulate the production of hybrid cars (footnote) and b. demand for small cars (footnote), there would be larger savings of hydrocarbons than that, leaving all the land where maize is produced for other crops.

Gasohol program lifted the price of maize, thus turning farming toward maize and away from wheat in regions like Nebraska. That was very profitable for agribusiness, and stimulated the demand for fertilizers, as production of maize was intensified.

BTW, an issue emerges what will American do with vegetables. Unnecessarily, there is huge production in California that uses water from Sierra Nevada for irrigation, and that may become problematic. The droughts in California and Arizona become more severe, on top of El Niño cycle which is currently inducing periodic droughts (and rains in Peru if I recall, ocean currents change and rains are relocated... I am not a meteorologist).

Footnote: hybrids vs electric. Currently hybrids may cost THE SAME as regular cars, the biggest net difference is that regular cars loose energy during breaking, electric and hybrid regenerate. In stop-go traffic in cities and suburbs that makes a huge difference. Low and medium income people in USA commute long distances on the average. Electric cars have the same energy saving when used, and the comes an issue I do not quite understand: they also need energy. Some "green", some not. I think in dollars per saved CO2, transition from normal to hybrid is much more efficient than the transition to electric, not to mention the demand on lithium that may be a limiting factor if you want to make a big difference.

Footnote: small cars. In part due to constant advertising, Americans favor larger vehicles, notably SUVs and vans, and moving more weight around (with crappy aerodynamics) uses more energy however you fuel it.

Back to food. Huge gasohol program increases food prices and makes a larger impact on the global food balance than the entire cropland of Ukraine, perhaps by factor of 2?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 22 2022 12:27 utc | 1

I've said it before, so I'll say it again. The great disappearing act the U.S. calls its Secretary of State was not appointed to deal with the likes of a Russia military operation in Ukraine.

If you recall, the SoS was called out by the Foreign Minister of China right out of the starting blocks. "Do not approach us from a position of strength," they said. The Blinking one was left blinking.

Now the U.S. must deal with the likes of Lavrov, and they have no equal to the task. So, to whom does the U.S. turn to do their talking for them? Why no other than the Sec. of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Very interesting to me.

The Blinking one was calling out Putin yesterday from the safety of the Georgetown campus in D.C., where he delivered the commencement address. He was appointed to hammer home an Iran agreement and to hand out goodies to Israel's Arab friends, not settle affairs between warring European factions, especially when one of the parties to the hostilities is Russia.

The question for me is: Who will go first, the Great Blinking-One or Bi-done?

Posted by: thecelticwithinme | May 22 2022 12:55 utc | 2

Interesting read by Engdahl

Acting on an initiative from the Biden Administration, by November 2022, conveniently at the onset of the next flu season in the northern hemisphere, the World Health Organization, barring a miracle, will impose an unprecedented top-down control over the national health regulations and measures of the entire planet.

In what amounts to a stealth coup d’etat, WHO will get draconian new powers to override national sovereignty in 194 UN member countries, and to dictate their health measures with force of international law. It is sometimes referred to as the WHO Pandemic Treaty but it is far more. Worse, most of the WHO budget comes from private vaccine-tied foundations like the Gates Foundation or from Big Pharma, a massive conflict of interest.

WHO Stealth Coup to Dictate Global Health Agenda of Gates, Big Pharma

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2022 13:21 utc | 3

With most eastern European nationalists being firmly convinced that Ukraine is wining and will win, what happens when they discover that Ukraine has lost and has been losing the whole time? Will we see the rebirth of Dolchstoßlegende (the stab in the back myth)? Who will be the targets for this anger? Jews (Zelensky is Jewish), France, Germany and Italy for not backing Ukraine enough? Washington and London for lying and encouraging Ukraine to continue the war when it should have surrendered. What form will the retribution take? Javelins and NLAWs? Stingers and StarStreaks? Thankfully it appears Ukraine has lost all the M777s to Russian actions, but all those shells will make wonderful IEDs as they did in Iraq.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 22 2022 13:47 utc | 4

Posted on Ukraine here by mistake, B. Please feel free to delete this as I've reposted it on today's Ukraine comments thread.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 22 2022 13:49 utc | 5

Re: US ICE-gasoline car replacement

There are many reasons why this is at best, a medium term plan and very possibly a mirage.

I posted this quite some time ago - from Ritholz but the actual source: The Raw Materials Challenge At The Core of the Energy Transition - mckinsey.com

Look at the "Road Transport" graph above. FCEV = hybrid, BEV = electric.
FCEVs will require enormous platinum group metals - amounts which are literally not available in that quantity today.
BEVs will require enormous battery materials - lithium, nickel etc - also in amounts which are literally not available in that quantity today.
Even assuming these materials can be mined - it means a massive expansion of mining worldwide.
But that isn't the only major assumption. The other major assumption is that source of energy will be there. FCEVs can use gasoline, so fine but EVs require electricity.
A full conversion of all US cars to EV, magically, would require an estimated 60% increase in the total electricity generation and transmission capacity of the entire US.
The US has a present generation capacity of about 1.1 million MW, so total capacity must increase to 1.76 million MW. But actually, if this new capacity is to be net zero - and even assuming storage is solved (a very big assumption as in making an ass of u and me), it would require 2.42 million MW of solar PV + wind at an average capacity factor of 30%, and assuming the base generation doesn't change. If the base generation also must go to net zero also, then it would require at least 3.5 million MW.

To put this in perspective: the entire world installed 27,723 MW in 2021.

It would take over 126 years at 2021 levels to install 3.5 million MW of net zero electricity generation capacity.

So even if we magically converted all cars on the road to EV in 2030 or 2050, it would require increasing alternative energy installation 16x from whole world 2021 install levels, into just the US, to hit the 2030 mark.

It would take a mere 4.5x of whole world 2021 install levels to hit net zero in the US alone by 2050.

Now let's look at costs. Solar PV is supposedly around $0.10 per kWh; wind is supposedly around $0.13 per kWh. Let's say 25% cap factor for solar PV and 32% for wind, this yields generation costs, per MW per year, of $219K for solar PV and $364K for wind. Designed lifetime for solar and wind is 20 years each, also supposedly, so we get actual install costs per MW of $4.38M and $7.28M for solar PV and wind. Let's call it $5.5M per MW of alternative energy just for giggles.

3.5 million MW times $5.5M per MW = $19.25 trillion. Net zero by 2030 = $2.4 trillion a year; Net zero by 2050 = only $687.5 billion a year <-- this is within $20 billion of the Pentagon budget in 2021.

At some point, this entire exercise is utterly ludicrous.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 13:51 utc | 6

In the meantime: More than a million households more than 60 days behind in utility bills in New York - insideclimatenews.org

More than a million households are 60 days in arrears on their energy bills, with an average of $1,427.71 in debt, and shut-offs are increasing.

...

In March, New York’s utility debt surpassed $2.1 billion and it is still mounting, an upward trend utilities are seeing in every part of the state. According to WE ACT for Environmental Justice, an organization whose mission is to combat environmental racism and build healthy communities for people of color, 13 percent of all residential households—about 1,137,000 in total—are 60 days in arrears on their utility bills, with an average of $1,427.71 in debt. The debt level is even higher for Con Ed customers, averaging about $2,085 per residential household/customer.

13 percent!

And New York is only the 8th most expensive electricity in the US - behind Massachusetts, California, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Hampshire as well as Hawaii and Alaska.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 13:57 utc | 7

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 22 2022 12:27 utc | 1

"USA turns more than 100 million tons of maize into fuel additive for cars -- 10% ethanol in gasoline."

That is 100 million tons of maize that are not being used to compete with and destroy the of farmers in Asia, Africa and Central & south America.

"Gasohol program lifted the price of maize"

yes it lifted the price of maize and other grains not just for American farmers but for farmers in the global south where a large percentage of the population relies on making a living growing food.

The US and EU have been using food exports as the main tool of maintaining Neo-colonial power ever since actual Colonialism became unfashionable. Countries that try to protect there native agricultural producers from western predation very quickly find themselves the target of a CIA coup and the IMF and WTO then steps in as the enforcer of the new colonial order - making sure their are no trade barriers that protect local production of food. Millions of third world farmers have been forced into third world urban slums. This recipe for maintaining Western dominance over third world countries has been repeated over and over.

"Back to food. Huge gasohol program increases food prices and makes a larger impact on the global food balance than the entire cropland of Ukraine"

Correct again. And you can expect tons of squawking from air heads who think that third world economies are somehow better off when they are forced to unfairly compete with the west to produce their own food.

Posted by: jinn | May 22 2022 14:10 utc | 8

@Down South #5
Bat shit crazy analysis.
In particular, how exactly is the WHO going to enforce its diktats to sovereign nations?
How many divisions does the WHO have, to paraphrase Stalin?

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 14:14 utc | 9

@thecelticwithinme #2
I think you are operating under a seriously mistaken premise: that competence is what the US Deep State looks for in its spokesmodels.

Blinken has wins: Greece grants 4 new bases to the US

Blinken says what he is told to say - it is quite obvious that this individual has no personal initiative to speak of.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 14:17 utc | 10

Thank you, b, as always. I’m reading through the first set of links, and this quote from Peter Lee’s China Threat Report is just too beautiful not to post at the earliest:

“ Backsliding by allies is, of course, a continual headache for the United States in encouraging/cajoling/armtwisting its liberal democratic associates to stick with the high cost/low reward strategy of pissing off China so that Indo Pacific Command can enjoy its dickswinging bliss in the Western Pacific for another decade.”

I also wanted to add to the conversation about grains for fuels with a Canadian example. This involves a refinery (yes Canada still has a handful of them) on the west coast, Vancouver area, owned by Calgary-based energy corporation Parkland Corporation.
https://www.producer.com/news/b-c-funds-renewable-diesel-project/

“… the project is to build a new renewable diesel facility on the same property capable of producing 6,300 barrels per day. That is an annual capacity of 400 million litres of renewable diesel.

Parkland’s co-processing plant uses from five to 20 percent bio-feedstock, while the renewable diesel facility will be 100 percent bio-feedstock.

The bio-feedstocks used in the production processes will be canola oil, tallow and used cooking oil.“

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | May 22 2022 14:21 utc | 11

Barflies might like to hear a little more about the Australian Federal Election result from yesterday. It is a difficult result to parse and complex to explain because of our preferential voting system. In sum, however, the centre left Australian Labor Party (ALP) is within an inch of being able to form government in its own right after 9 years of oligarch-friendly corrupt rule by the 'Coalition', the alliance between the conservative right Liberal Party and the regional 'coal and farms' lobbyists the National Party. The Coalition, ruled by an abject pathological liar and evangelist sociopath, Scott Morrison ('Scomo'), are the party of private theft of public money. The ALP on the other hand are comprised of people who (perhaps naively in this day and age) see government as a public duty to manage the state in the interests of the citizen body. They are also the party that represents the labour movement and unions.

Into this mix we have minor parties: the Australian Greens (progressive left), The United Australia Party (MAGA wannabes), One Nation (populist right) and a slew of Independent candidates swept into parliament on a tide of dissatisfaction with the major parties on these issues: climate action, gender equality, a federal anti-corruption integrity commission.

On the other hand, no party has a solution to the structural problems in Australian society, chiefly wage stagnation and the world's most unaffordable housing market (to buy or rent—in Sydney to buy, average median house price 11-12 x $100k pa salary, to rent average $2000/month 2-bed apt, $3000+ for 3-4 bed house).

Traditionally Australia has no really independent foreign policy with both sides of politics submissively accepting US hegemony in the region and internationally. Those who test this principle usually get clipped.

With about 72% of votes counted the current estimate for the division of the country's 151 parliamentary lower house seats (with 76 needed to form government in own right) is as follows:

Coalition (Liberals/Nationals): 52 seats—a rout
Australian Labor Party: 75 seats—not a landslide but pretty good
Centre Alliance: 1 seat (in Adelaide)—anomalous
Independents: 11 seats (including Bob Katter's weird party in Queensland)—massive protest vote against the two majors
Greens: possibly as many as 5 seats—this is the standout: a big victory for inner-city woke progressivism
Still in doubt: 7 seats
United Australia Party: 0 seats, but around 5% of the primary votes nationally
One Nation: ditto—the populist right in Australia don't have anywhere near the kind of pull one finds in the USA or France. Since the far-right in Australia is anti-intellectual they will always attract the dumb fringe.

The senate is still being counted.

For me the return of the ALP is a positive thing. The Murdoch press hate them so it is a minor miracle for social democrats to win power in a country where property prices are a national sport. After 9 years of pillaging by big vested interests and their mates in government it will be a veritable Augean stables to clean out the graft and corruption (we went from 7th in the world for least corruption to 18th). Maybe the ALP can set us up to be the renewable energy superpower we could be. The new PM, 'Albo' (Anthony Albanese) is off to see the Quad this week. Maybe we might walk a more sensible path there too, but I'm not holding my breath.

Posted by: Patroklos | May 22 2022 14:36 utc | 12

@10 I must admit I have paid very little attention to the SoS except his MIA.

Posted by: thecelticwithinme | May 22 2022 14:47 utc | 13

re: United States forces have been granted access to four additional military bases in Greece under the new expansion of a defense cooperation agreement signed Thursday by the two countries.

Actually the US already had the access, this PR move is merely ment to aggravate Russia and Turkey, especially with the increased interest in Alexandroupolis Port, close to the Turkey border shown here.

from GreekCityTimes - August 2020:

The establishment of a U.S.-NATO base at Alexandroupolis Port aims to secure an energy hub and serve as a point to pressurize Russia. In addition to the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria pipeline and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline being in the region of the port, a third pipeline is also being prepared. This would turn Thrace, the region of Alexandroupolis Port, into a true energy hub.
. . .With the acquisition of this port, U.S.-NATO forces may be in many areas of the Balkans in only a few hours and can significantly hinder Russian trade with the world via the Black Sea by blockading the Dardanelles. Currently, Greece and Turkey are the closest they have been to war since 1974 when the latter invaded northern Cyprus. The Greek government is likely to use the hostilities as a justification for opening a U.S. naval base in Alexandroupolis to supposedly ensure Greece’s security despite opposition from the majority of Greeks. . .here

This all coincides with the main US world strategy -- 'instability R us.'

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 22 2022 14:56 utc | 14

@6 c1ue:

That post is very helpful, because it helps to scale the problem we're facing.

The problem with your otherwise excellent analysis is that:

a. You have (finally) had to acknowledge that climate is changing , but now resort to "but it's not from humans". OK, then why is it happening? Have you offered up an alternative source for the prodigious amount of energy required to heat ocean and atmosphere and to melt perfectly enormous ice-caps (I'm sure you know what heat of fusion is, what it takes to melt ice). Did I miss your explanation?

b. Pay little or no (again, did I miss it?) attention to the obvious design flaws (colossal energy leaks) in our (the world's) current economic subsystems e.g. ag, energy generation and transmission, transport, manufacturing, in addition to massive once-and-done resource leakage from virtually every production-consumption process in place today. For someone with your background, plugging leaks that big would seem an obvious first-look. Not happening.

c. It seems like the only solution you're proposing is either "do nothing" or ... if memory serves, expand nukes, and the build-nukes option suffers from a similar set of constraints that the build-renewables option does

d. As others have pointed out - and you continue to deny or (in my opinion) obfuscate-deflect - the rate of disruption caused by climate change is accelerating beyond the current rate of adaptation of our economic support systems. Given the gigantic inertia of our installed economic infrastructure, we are already overtaken by events. Something big is going give way.

It's valuable to point out the deficiencies in current solution-proposals. That helps direct effort more fruitfully. However, objections are not solutions, as you well know.

Notably missing in your solution-set are changes in consumption, or design changes in economic processes to wring out energy leaks, or resource-leaks. Why is that?

You seem to have a blind-spot for some types of solution.

Here's an example: the other day we debated the utility of using variable-rate renewable energy to synthesize a stock-piled fuel which can be used by fuel cells (on-demand) to produce electricity which would be used to smooth peaks-and-valleys renewable electricity production.

You struggled, and in my opinion failed to discount that option on either economic or technical grounds, try though you did.

And then, maybe one day later, you publish an excellent post identifying the massive amount of wasted energy which renewables suffer from .... because they don't have ... here it is - the ability to stockpile that energy and smooth out the peaks and valleys.

How come you're smart enough to run the numbers, you understand the concepts, but you can't connect certain fairly-obvious dots? And whole swaths of the solution-space get no look at all. It's curious.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 15:00 utc | 15

@ Patroklos 12
'Albo' (Anthony Albanese) is off to see the Quad this week. Maybe we might walk a more sensible path there too
Actually the Quad 'dialogue' group has been a big zero. At the last meeting they talked vaccines, is all. China has never been mentioned.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 22 2022 15:03 utc | 16

"In particular, how exactly is the WHO going to enforce its diktats to sovereign nations?
How many divisions does the WHO have, to paraphrase Stalin?"

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 14:14 utc | 9

Additionally, Russia has announced plans to leave WHO, WTO and other Western dominated international organizations. Many others will follow suit as the world breaks into opposing camps.

Posted by: Pagan | May 22 2022 15:06 utc | 17

Polish President Andrzej Duda is visiting Ukraine, and romance is the air here.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 22 2022 15:11 utc | 18

How come you're smart enough to run the numbers, you understand the concepts, but you can't connect certain fairly-obvious dots? And whole swaths of the solution-space get no look at all. It's curious.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 15:00 utc | 15

I think geophysics is more difficult than geopolitics-slash-economics. The latter is mainly a "soft-science" -- a pseudoscience, in which anything goes, while the former is implacably fused to the data, from which it is not allowed to stray very far. I think a fundamentally different standard of truth applies in physical science. I've never found an effective means of communicating with people who take no interest in evidence-based, non-fungible standards of truth. Willful physical ignorance is too tough a shell to crack.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 15:17 utc | 19

@ Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 22 2022 12:27 utc | 1

A most interesting comment of sorts.

Sadly , I take it your are not up to date. As how all producers of grain alcohols and beers , value add with their waste products. The waste yeast can be reprocessed into tasty human food. The spent grains and waste water is reprocessed as animal feed.

That being said. Your alleged inferred waste from ethanol production. Is now used in a large percentage of reprocessed animal feed. Grass feeding ruminants, have extreme difficulty in converting corn to muscle mass. Much of it exits at the back end of the process. Along with much "global warming" greenhouse methane gas...........

Alas, Yankee 'ministry of truth' media , is awash with ignorant paid to fool the audience "gas bag talking heads" paid to dispense 'fool me often' poopaganda".. lol

Alas, George Orwell was correct in 1949. All western media that year became a sub branch of the government controlled "Ministry of Truth".

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 22 2022 15:19 utc | 20

sorry, my bad on 18 (Ukraine)

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 22 2022 15:25 utc | 21

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 14:14 utc | 9

In particular, how exactly is the WHO going to enforce its diktats to sovereign nations?

During the Covid pandemic most member countries of the WHO implemented its recommendations to combat the spread of Covid-19. “Recommendations“ are simply being upgraded to diktats. There was ample examples of governments throwing themselves off a cliff based on a “recommendation” by the WHO.

How many divisions does the WHO have, to paraphrase Stalin?

That’s what the member state’s governments are for.

The system was established and put into operation during the Covid pandemic. There were umpteen discussions about this on the MOA threads. They’re simply tightening the screws and tying up loose ends.

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2022 15:39 utc | 22

The Dreizin Report is now at YouTube
The Dreizin Report

Posted by: Tyrus | May 22 2022 15:47 utc | 23

Taipei's gamble with people's health: China Daily editorial
LOL!!
Getting locked up without food and own children for weeks is much healthier for Uncle Xi's Ego/ re-election.

Posted by: Antonym | May 22 2022 15:50 utc | 24

Back to food. Huge gasohol program increases food prices and makes a larger impact on the global food balance than the entire cropland of Ukraine, perhaps by factor of 2?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 22 2022 12:27 utc | 1

I stored this segment of your comment in order to give personal input that the gasohol program in the US uses up GM corn/maize that I personally(and many others) do not wish to eat. Most US producers of same, if not organic, are happily spraying their crops and beneficial insects more heavily than they would be able to do with un-GM corn/maise -- so the cars and trucks are welcome to it, though the earth sadly is not. So we can factor that in with other nastinesses our non-renewable energy uses are gifting the planet.

Posted by: juliania | May 22 2022 16:09 utc | 25

@Tom Pfotzer #15
I have never said the climate was not changing.

What I have said, to repeat is:

1) Are humans really the majority factor? And if so, is it really CO2 (as opposed to land use, ecological displacement etc) that is how humans are changing the climate?
2) Is climate change really a net negative?
3) If climate change is really a net negative, are we able to actually stop the "damage", much less reverse it?

My views on the above are:

1) humans = climate change: maybe, but clearly not mostly. CO2: extremely unclear.
2) Very much debatable. Assumes "pre-fossil fuels" was original state which is utter bullshit. We don't cut trees down anymore for fuel because we can burn fossil fuels, for example. Another example is that CO2 increases in atmosphere (whatever the source) are visibly greening the planet including increasing the inputs into the ecosystem: C3 plants have gained something like 25% output efficiency worldwide.
3) No. Period.

Nor is your "damning with faint praise" the least bit useful.

The reality is that the populations everywhere are not bought into the notion of suffering enormous standard of living decreases in order to stop or reverse climate change.

Up until now, the passage of "climate friendly" laws are largely due to lack of impact on standards of living, but this situation is no longer true as the commodity supercycle bites hard.

The main reason I don't worry about it too much is because I have always believed that while people will choose a worse life for themselves if they have personal hope and hope for their children, they will NOT choose a worse life for themselves AND their children today even if in theory life can be better for the children in the far future.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:11 utc | 26

@Down South #22
The differences between various national responses to COVID and the WHO are enormous and varied. For that matter, the WHO itself has been flip floppy over COVID over numerous points.

To draw the parallel between the above and supposed WHO control over sovereign government policies, health or otherwise, is - as I already said - batshit crazy.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:13 utc | 27

This is bullshit:

2) Very much debatable. Assumes "pre-fossil fuels" was original state which is utter bullshit. We don't cut trees down anymore for fuel because we can burn fossil fuels, for example. Another example is that CO2 increases in atmosphere (whatever the source) are visibly greening the planet including increasing the inputs into the ecosystem: C3 plants have gained something like 25% output efficiency worldwide.

For one thing, humans never used predominantly trees to fuel industrial activities. No, it's always been peat, coal or other fossil fuels. Not enough trees were ever cut down in that manner to matter. And in the past 50 years more deforestation for agriculture and cattle ranching has happened than in all of previous human history combined. I am not an ecologist, so I don't know the precise numbers, but I can tell you that far less CO2 gets eaten up by a cow's ass or maize crop than a dense forest, tropical or otherwise.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 16:26 utc | 28

Good news in OilPrice
Oil Price Outlook Remains Bullish As Europe Prepares Russian Embargo
but clouds on the horizon
Failure To Implement Russian Oil Ban Could Send Oil Crashing To $65

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 22 2022 16:35 utc | 29

thank you b and thanks for the many informed comments here in the comment section...

@ Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 16:26 utc | 28

apparently biomass gets a pass as environmentally friendly and it is all the rage.. what i didn't know is how much tree or wood type products are a part of it..

"Since biomass can be used as a fuel directly (e.g. wood logs), some people use the words biomass and biofuel interchangeably." you might want to read more on this -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass

Posted by: james | May 22 2022 16:37 utc | 30

...humans never used predominantly trees to fuel industrial activities.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2022 16:26 utc | 28

You are probably correct. But you forget that trees have been used for practically everything else. Construction and transport (boats) alone were probably most responsible for many barren hillsides in Europe.

Posted by: Pagan | May 22 2022 16:40 utc | 31

@Tom_Q_Collins #28
Deforestation has occurred in 3rd world countries, but the 1st and 2nd world have reforested.

There are more trees in the US than there were 100 years ago

In the United States, which contains 8 percent of the world's forests, there are more trees than there were 100 years ago. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), "Forest growth nationally has exceeded harvest since the 1940s. By 1997, forest growth exceeded harvest by 42 percent and the volume of forest growth was 380 percent greater than it had been in 1920." The greatest gains have been seen on the East Coast (with average volumes of wood per acre almost doubling since the '50s) which was the area most heavily logged by European settlers beginning in the 1600s, soon after their arrival.

Europe is greener now (2014) than 100 years ago

NASA says CO2 is greening the earth

Sahara shrinks 700000 square km

That's the problem with you climate doom-mongers - you literally can't see the forest for the trees.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:41 utc | 32

This is probably important: Yu Yongding saying China's overseas assets and liability structure needs to be adjusted - whatchinareads.com

Yu Yongding mentioned that for a long time, China has accumulated over trillion in reserves through its current account surplus and capital account surplus, exceeding the requirement of foreign exchange reserve adequacy ratio.

　　However, the rate of return on foreign exchange reserves is extremely low, and the proportion of foreign exchange reserves in overseas assets is too high; a large part of foreign exchange reserves are "borrowed" rather than "earned", so the financing cost of part of the foreign reserves is very high.

　　Because of this, he said, China has negative investment returns despite having trillion in net assets abroad. This is in stark contrast to the United States.

...

In Yu's view, eight types of policies can be considered to adjust the flow of overseas assets, including
1) expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand to drive imports;
2) abolishing as soon as possible the export tax rebate policy implemented in the past to encourage exports;
3) increasing imports of bulk commodities and strategic materials;
4) buying fewer U.S. Treasuries and importing more U.S. products;
5) maintaining a trade deficit for a specific period;
6) implementing a floating exchange rate policy;
7) increasing forms of overseas investment;
8) and playing to China's advantages in infrastructure investment, but beware of the debt trap, etc.

Note that Pozsar's BWIII thesis is only 1 of the 8 options...

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:45 utc | 33

And another: Jin Canrong

China has more than 3 trillion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and the government's overseas assets alone exceed 8 trillion U.S. dollars. What if the United States drinks too much one day and lifts the table? This has become a hidden danger. In terms of protecting the safety of overseas assets, China must make more preparations.

source

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:47 utc | 34

Towards some policy change in France ?
As mentioned in previous thread, there may be some significant trend in France as to Ukraine :
- Macron talked about a need for négociation
- his new minister for foreign affairs is a former collaborator of Chirac when he refused to take part to the war to Irak.
Indeed, Catherine Colonna - unless she dramatically U-turnef- is from the traditional French Gaullist stance of Europe from Atlantic to Ural, certainly not aligned on the US neocon team she h’ew of when speaker for Chirac

Posted by: Daniel | May 22 2022 16:48 utc | 35

juliania@25
It is not so much the foregone "food" as the abuse of the land, and destruction of finite fertility, that producing ethanol out of corn, canola and other plants implies.
Better by far for the land to become pasture or return to nature than that it be tortured to produce a fuel that nobody wants-except that it is a means of keeping the economy rotating.

Tom_Q_Collins@28
"..For one thing, humans never used predominantly trees to fuel industrial activities. No, it's always been peat, coal or other fossil fuels. Not enough trees were ever cut down in that manner to matter..."
I'm not sure that this is correct, historically. The use of coal and peat as a substitute for wood and charcoal was, in Europe at least, a fairly recent development. I believe that Braudel describes de-forestation (long before NATO was even thought of) in both Sweden and Finland consequent upon the development of the iron industry.

Posted by: bevin | May 22 2022 16:59 utc | 36

A tale of two high speed rail development systems:

California High Speed Rail standoff - calmatters.org

The $105 billion bullet train project — for which $10.3 billion has been spent so far — would be the largest single investment in state history, the most ambitious civil works effort in the nation and now a symbol to many experts of how not to build a railroad, all of which define the stakes in the current impasse.

The feud has festered for 16 months, since Gov. Gavin Newsom asked the Legislature for a $4.2 billion appropriation in early 2021. The request has triggered a standoff with Assembly Democrats, who have steadfastly refused to hand over the last remaining funds from a 2008 bond measure for high-speed rail.

vs.

China National Railroad announces

California Democrats are locked in one of the most consequential disputes in modern state history over the future of the Los Angeles-to-San Francisco high-speed rail project after a decade of troubled construction.

...

From January to April, a total of 157.46 billion yuan in fixed assets was invested in railways across the country, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and 581 kilometers of new lines have been opened, including 358 kilometers of high-speed rail.

Note the above California high speed rail that is now projected to cost $105 billion for a 274 kilometer high speed rail that goes between Merced (population 84000) to Bakersfield (population 380000) - that isn't expected to be completed until 2031?

vs.

358 km of high speed rail in China for $23.5 billion with another 223 km of regular rail thrown in for bonus - all already completed.

I'd bet money at 10:1 odds that the above China completed rail projects started later than the 2009 start date for the above CA project.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 17:00 utc | 37

@26 c1ue. Thank your for your reply. I'll respond point by point.

c1ue: What I have said, to repeat is:

1) Are humans really the majority factor? And if so, is it really CO2 (as opposed to land use, ecological displacement etc) that is how humans are changing the climate?
2) Is climate change really a net negative?
3) If climate change is really a net negative, are we able to actually stop the "damage", much less reverse it?

My views on the above are:

1) humans = climate change: maybe, but clearly not mostly. CO2: extremely unclear.

OK. Then what's the "mostly" if it's not humans?

2. "is climate change a net negative". c1ue: Very much debatable. Assumes "pre-fossil fuels" was original state which is utter bullshit. We don't cut trees down anymore for fuel because we can burn fossil fuels, for example. Another example is that CO2 increases in atmosphere (whatever the source) are visibly greening the planet including increasing the inputs into the ecosystem: C3 plants have gained something like 25% output efficiency worldwide.

Tom: Is it greening up U.S. west coast? When the drying effect moves east into Montana, N. and S. Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska (likely extension of current patterns) is that going to be beneficial? I'm just citing one example. Please offer a counter-example where increased C3 plant offsets that damage? Give me a break with the 25% output efficiency re: increased CO2 levels. Please offer up a citation. Plants are not CO2-bound; they are water and nutrient bound (limiting growth factor).
3) "can we reverse the damage". c1ue: No. Period.

Tom: Of course we can. We can start with plugging the biggest leaks, and gradually work our way thru the punch-list of items that need to be addressed. What's missing is a clear definition of the problem, a stratified list of solutions, and clear incentives to implement the solutions. The main obstruction is the that "no" attitude.

Nor is your "damning with faint praise" the least bit useful.

Tom: Of course it's useful. It says "this guy gets part of it, let's give him credit for that", while also saying "but he is missing big parts of the story". It's quite useful to draw that distinction.

I note that you didn't revisit the renewable-to-fuel subject, and my guess is it's because you were wrong to start with, and then you totally demolished your own argument by admitting that a big chunk of renewable energy is dumped. "Dumped" means "no cost to use" as input for the peak-and-valley smoothing mechanism I described. Own goal.

That doesn't add to your credibility, c1ue.

c1ue: The reality is that the populations everywhere are not bought into the notion of suffering enormous standard of living decreases in order to stop or reverse climate change.

Tom: We're in agreement on that. The question then becomes "are enough of us smart enough to change course before we crash into the wall".

c1ue: Up until now, the passage of "climate friendly" laws are largely due to lack of impact on standards of living, but this situation is no longer true as the commodity supercycle bites hard.

Tom: Supercycle my ass. Price rise trims demand, and there's a hell of a lot of waste in the current demand. Plenty of room for consumption-reduction.

c1ue: The main reason I don't worry about it too much is because I have always believed that while people will choose a worse life for themselves if they have personal hope and hope for their children, they will NOT choose a worse life for themselves AND their children today even if in theory life can be better for the children in the far future.

Tom: My assessment is "the reason you don't worry about it" is because you are not going to feel the full force of the effects your behavior is causing. And the effects aren't "far future"; they are "now present".

Furthermore the ability to identify and respond in the present to future threats is one of the fundamental reasons our species currently exists. And yet, some of us have turned off that valuable trait.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 17:01 utc | 38

@Tom_Pfotzer #38

You said

1) humans = climate change: maybe, but clearly not mostly. CO2: extremely unclear.

OK. Then what's the "mostly" if it's not humans?

I would believe land use changes: urbanization, clearing of forests and grasslands for farmland and houses, that kind of thing. But sadly "climate science" is such junk that the signal to noise ratio is in the single digits.

You said

2. "is climate change a net negative". c1ue: Very much debatable. Assumes "pre-fossil fuels" was original state which is utter bullshit. We don't cut trees down anymore for fuel because we can burn fossil fuels, for example. Another example is that CO2 increases in atmosphere (whatever the source) are visibly greening the planet including increasing the inputs into the ecosystem: C3 plants have gained something like 25% output efficiency worldwide.

Tom: Is it greening up U.S. west coast? When the drying effect moves east into Montana, N. and S. Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska (likely extension of current patterns) is that going to be beneficial? I'm just citing one example. Please offer a counter-example where increased C3 plant offsets that damage? Give me a break with the 25% output efficiency re: increased CO2 levels. Please offer up a citation. Plants are not CO2-bound; they are water and nutrient bound (limiting growth factor).

Argue with NASA's satellites; it isn't my job to educate you on such basics.

You said

3) "can we reverse the damage". c1ue: No. Period.

Tom: Of course we can. We can start with plugging the biggest leaks, and gradually work our way thru the punch-list of items that need to be addressed. What's missing is a clear definition of the problem, a stratified list of solutions, and clear incentives to implement the solutions. The main obstruction is the that "no" attitude.

We *can* in the theoretical sense: if a magical entity with infinite power forced the majority of humanity to do what you and the doom-mongers want humanity to do, maybe. But this magical entity doesn't exist and the vast majority of humanity doesn't want to suffer immediate standard of living losses. So: not gonna happen.

You said

Nor is your "damning with faint praise" the least bit useful.

Tom: Of course it's useful. It says "this guy gets part of it, let's give him credit for that", while also saying "but he is missing big parts of the story". It's quite useful to draw that distinction.

I note that you didn't revisit the renewable-to-fuel subject, and my guess is it's because you were wrong to start with, and then you totally demolished your own argument by admitting that a big chunk of renewable energy is dumped. "Dumped" means "no cost to use" as input for the peak-and-valley smoothing mechanism I described. Own goal.

That doesn't add to your credibility, c1ue.

I've revisited the renewable thing numerous times: the reality is that alternative energy is garbage beyond maybe 10% to 15% of base load.

I just finished a review of electricity curtailments: it is astounding. Between California, Texas, China, Germany and the UK - over 40 million megawatt hours of electricity is thrown away EVERY SINGLE YEAR. And the China/Germany/UK data is from 2015 or 2016 - thus curtailments there are 99.9% likely to be much higher. Curtailments aren't free - it literally costs money to throw electricity away, but these costs are somehow ignored when calculating supposed cheaper alternative energy. Nor are the costs of backup - either imported electricity or peaker fossil fuel plants - counted.

So no, can't say I have avoided addressing a damn thing.

You said:

c1ue: The reality is that the populations everywhere are not bought into the notion of suffering enormous standard of living decreases in order to stop or reverse climate change.

Tom: We're in agreement on that. The question then becomes "are enough of us smart enough to change course before we crash into the wall".

So you think. I disagree and so do most people. As such, perhaps your "smart"ness does not mean what you think it means.

You said:

c1ue: Up until now, the passage of "climate friendly" laws are largely due to lack of impact on standards of living, but this situation is no longer true as the commodity supercycle bites hard.

Tom: Supercycle my ass. Price rise trims demand, and there's a hell of a lot of waste in the current demand. Plenty of room for consumption-reduction.

Nice of you to bring neoliberal economics into the picture. Sadly, the real world is quite different. As I've noted numerous times since late last year: the money being invested into new fossil fuel sources, new mines, new anything pretty much is way, way below historical precedents. In this real world, you have to spend money to get things unlike unicorn fairy dust alternative energy world. So no, can't say that the price rises will trim demand because energy and commodities are CORE TO EXISTENCE, unlike diversity policies and so forth.

c1ue: The main reason I don't worry about it too much is because I have always believed that while people will choose a worse life for themselves if they have personal hope and hope for their children, they will NOT choose a worse life for themselves AND their children today even if in theory life can be better for the children in the far future.

Tom: My assessment is "the reason you don't worry about it" is because you are not going to feel the full force of the effects your behavior is causing. And the effects aren't "far future"; they are "now present".

Furthermore the ability to identify and respond in the present to future threats is one of the fundamental reasons our species currently exists. And yet, some of us have turned off that valuable trait.

Your assessment is that you think trying to guilt trip me is going to effect change even when I utterly disagree with your factual basis, your premises, your prognosis etc.

What is really ironic is that I am actually pretty damn green.
I don't even own a car.
I take public transportation more than probably 3/4s of MoA people and possibly including you.
I don't have an Amazon Prime account and get a delivery every month or so.
I cook and eat 90%+ of my food, and that from raw ingredients.

I am not, however, wedded to an ideology - and a wrong one at that.

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 17:17 utc | 39

From the "Ukraine War Has Not Stoked A Global Food Crisis" discussion,

@Bemildred | May 22 2022 10:30 utc | 268

"Very old. The 'Indian Corn' is the new thing. Indian corn is maize....
A classic of old-style genetic engineering too, Indian Corn. It is amazing how many excellent crops the 'first peoples' here gave the world. We should be a lot more grateful."

As @Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 14:32 utc | 313 so beautifully wrote:

"To my knowledge, it's the only cereal for which we can find no wild relative... Some very careful clever people fashioned this miraculous cereal -- from a grain unknown. Maize might be the most significant artifact ever brought forth by human ingenuity."

I totally agree. While maize has become "corn" in US English it's still relatively new to Europe. But maize, and its many other corn-cousins across the world, played a huge role in not just the rise of civilization but in our development into the humanity we have become as a species. A true symbiosis or even alchemy of nature and loving craft, for which we should be grateful indeed.

I understand that according to the Meso-American indigenous creation myth the first humans were fashioned from maize. And from this that modern indigenous nations are absolutely 100% against GMO corn—on spiritual principle.

"In USA of course, it was just "corn", "cornfields" have big grasses with big "ears" of corn on them here. Good places to find a little privacy."

Reading this I couldn't help being reminded of Robert Burns' Corn Rigs. Not only has corn in all its forms shaped us as a species, many of us as individuals were conceived in its whispering shade.

"When I saw Werner Herzog's Cave of Forgotten Dreams I got the same rumbling resonance of relation to my forebears."

That is one beautiful documentary. An awe-inspiring look at who we were before even agriculture. I have a sense that Chauvet Cave, 32,000 years ago, may be the oldest yet discovered human temple.

Posted by: Vintage Red | May 22 2022 17:39 utc | 40

Let's recap a US cash crop [GRAPHIC, 1982-2018]

S&P Global | US EPA proposes cuts to 2020 biofuel mandate, with plans to raise blending in 2022 Dec 2021

REUTERS | Exclusive: Biden weighing cuts to 2022 ethanol blending mandate proposal Jan 2022

S&P Global | EPA proposes binding June 3 deadline to finalize new biofuel blending mandates Feb 2022

The US Environmental Protection Agency has proposed to commit to a June 3 deadline for finalizing biofuel blending requirements for 2021 and 2022 to settle litigation over its delay in setting annual mandates for the Renewable Fuel Standard program.
[...]
Economic injury
Ethanol group Growth Energy filed a complaint Feb. 8 with the US District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that the EPA failed to perform its duties tied to the RFS program (Growth Energy v. Regan, et al, 1:22-cv-00347)....

So. The feds rescued the "farmers' market" AND saved millions of bushels of "grains" from a fate worst than debasement of the dollar--export to staving widows and orphans worldwide.
Biden will ease restrictions on higher-ethanol fuel as inflation hits a 40-year high April 2022

his administration will temporarily allow E15 gasoline -- gasoline that uses a 15% ethanol blend that is usually banned from sale from June to September -- to be sold this summer, a measure intended to help ease gas prices.
[...]
In contrast to E10, which makes up the bulk of gasoline sold in the United States, the sale of E15 is typically banned during the summer under the Clean Air Act because of air pollution concerns.
[...]
In 2019, President Donald Trump allowed E15 to be sold year-round in what was seen at the time as a bid to increase his political standing with farmers after his trade war with China hurt U.S. farmers. It was a move that a federal court overruled after the fact, saying EPA exceeded its authority, and the Supreme Court declined to take up an appeal earlier this year. Calls for Biden to follow Trump's lead came from a number of farm-state lawmakers, including Iowa Republican Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst.
[...]
And although industry groups have touted alleged emissions benefits of biofuels like ethanol, a [2019] report from the Government Accountability Office noted "limited effect, if any, on greenhouse gas emissions."

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 17:46 utc | 41

@ Vintage Red | May 22 2022 17:39 utc | 40 with claim of Chauvet Cave, 32,000 years ago, may be the oldest yet discovered human temple.

I think that the Bruniquel Cave, checking in at 176,000 years ago, more fits the oldest claim for human temple.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 22 2022 18:24 utc | 42

@39 c1ue.

I followed the "nasa satellite" link you posted. There was no mention of your claimed 25% increase in "output efficiency" for plants due to CO2 increase. The article does state that plants are doing better given the increasing CO2 levels. No surprise there; CO2 is an input to photosynthesis.

The article goes on to state:

While rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the air can be beneficial for plants, it is also the chief culprit of climate change. The gas, which traps heat in Earth’s atmosphere, has been increasing since the industrial age due to the burning of oil, gas, coal and wood for energy and is continuing to reach concentrations not seen in at least 500,000 years. The impacts of climate change include global warming, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and sea ice as well as more severe weather events.

The beneficial impacts of carbon dioxide on plants may also be limited, said co-author Dr. Philippe Ciais, associate director of the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, Gif-suv-Yvette, France. “Studies have shown that plants acclimatize, or adjust, to rising carbon dioxide concentration and the fertilization effect diminishes over time.”

You forgot to mention that part of the article, c1ue.

c1ue: " the vast majority of humanity doesn't want to suffer immediate standard of living losses" [from implementing so-called "green" policies].

Tom: Please detail for me the std of living reduction that accompanies the renewable-to-fuel-to-electricity plan I set out. Just for example. And then electric cars. Internet. Telework. Increased fuel efficiency in ICEs. Migrating to plant protein .vs. animal. Solar panels. Windmills. Insulation. High-efficiency HVAC gear. LED lights. Tell me about all the horror those innovations and economic adaptations have wreaked on our std of living.

c1ue: I just finished a review of electricity curtailments: it is astounding. Between California, Texas, China, Germany and the UK - over 40 million megawatt hours of electricity is thrown away EVERY SINGLE YEAR. And the China/Germany/UK data is from 2015 or 2016 - thus curtailments there are 99.9% likely to be much higher. Curtailments aren't free - it literally costs money to throw electricity away, but these costs are somehow ignored when calculating supposed cheaper alternative energy. Nor are the costs of backup - either imported electricity or peaker fossil fuel plants - counted.

Tom: It simply beggars belief that you can set out this paragraph above and then say "it's a stupid idea to capture and use the energy we're currently throwing away".

c1ue: (in response to Tom's assertion that price rise curtails demand): Nice of you to bring neoliberal economics into the picture. Sadly, the real world is quite different.

Tom: supply and demand interactions are not new, or neoliberal. Please name for me that economic school of thought that rejects the dynamic of price impact on supply and demand. Sorry, c1ue, real world, price affects demand. Even for short-run "inelastic demand", if supply is constrained long enough, substitutions happen. Always. Please identify an exception.

c1ue: What is really ironic is that I am actually pretty damn green.
I don't even own a car.
I take public transportation more than probably 3/4s of MoA people and possibly including you.
I don't have an Amazon Prime account and get a delivery every month or so.
I cook and eat 90%+ of my food, and that from raw ingredients.

Tom: Keep up the good work. No snark.

c1ue: I am not, however, wedded to an ideology - and a wrong one at that.

Tom: Which ideology are you ascribing to me?

Every one of the behavioral changes I've advocated deliver real-world right-now economic benefits, in addition to enhancing my (and your) longer-term security and maybe survival potential. Some of them even help re-distribute wealth-creation capacity into middle-class, which is sorely needed.

Show me where the "ideology" is, please, and name the ideology.

by the way, I am richly enjoying this exchange, c1ue. I hope that doesn't rankle too much.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 18:55 utc | 43

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 18:55 utc | 43

thanks for your laudable patience. i will not bet that it will be rewarded, but at least you are enjoying the process.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 22 2022 19:16 utc | 44

The entire west is controlled by a few people you don't know All Western governments are in their pockets. Then comes the the Pentagon, MIC, Media and all the rest of corporations. You are led to think that you have a democracy, but instead you have a revolving door.

Davos takes it's orders from the silent few, and Blinken and the rest are just servants taking orders. There is specking order in this scheme and the US presidents issue dicktaks to the Europe.

We are now faced with Russia and China trying to carve a different path for this world.
Climate change came from the West and it is quite clear that they have/will exhaust their supply of much needed fuels and minerals. Hence the renewed push to subjugate Africa and other countries, once again.

This world used to be covered in ice and then it warmed. Is what we are going through a natural phenomenon? I don't know, but I will find out.

Please think about the potential of the Russian military, and read about what they went through. Climate change pales in comparison to what we might go through.

Posted by: Karl luck | May 22 2022 19:43 utc | 45

Vintage Red @40, plus Juliania and others interested in indian corn.

My wife and I have been growing Indian corn for more than 40 years. It's a sweet corn. The ears are about four inches long and contain eight rows of corn. We were given the corn seed from a man who was a direct descendent of the first christian settlers in the upper Connecticut river valley in northern Vermont. His family had saved the seed every years since the 1760s. The corn stalks grow only about thigh high and produce one ear per stalk. About 10 years ago my wife just happened to meet the chief of the local Abenaki tribe and told her "we are growing your corn." The chief was surprised because the Abenakis had lost the corn many generations ago. We gave them some seed and they started growing it. They studied it and tested it and determined it to be original Abenaki corn. Two other things about this Indian corn -- it tastes better than modern corn and it freezes very well right on the ear. Yes, the ears are very small but I just eat more of them.

Posted by: Chas | May 22 2022 19:48 utc | 46

@44: pretzelattack

And thanks for that note.

c1ue's a damned smart person, probably smarter than I am. He does a very good job of demolishing bullshit, and there's plenty of that around.

(s)he's useful.

The only reason I get into it with him/her is because the stakes are so high. Screwing this one up is gonna hurt. The other part is that biz-analyst types (c1ue has a lot of that background, as he/she demonstrates often) tend to do what I call "incremental-think" as contrasted with "imagination". Biz analyst types are not generally known for the big breakthroughs. They evaluate the world, to use their words "as it currently is". But incrementalism almost never delivers out the Big changes that power humanity. The big payoffs, in both business and in life, spring from the ability to see "what might be" and then to be able to do the block-and-tackling to get there.

That's what made Edison such a keystone individual. I'd say he had more impact on American society than just about anybody. Electric motors. Light bulb. Phonograph. Movies. That's some major shit, and he did a lot of the imagining, and a lot of the perspiring.

Einstein, one of my all-time fav people said:

"Imagination is more vital than knowledge".

"you can't solve a problem with the same sort of thinking that created it in the first place" (incrementalism .vs. imagination)

"The only thing more infinite than space ... is human stupidity".

And this incremental/analytical bent (.vs. imagination or synthesis) may be what's keeping us (society) in the box we're in.

And that's the main reason I joust with c1ue on green-related matters. Our economies - world-wide - are tottering on the edge of obsolescence - the environment is changing way, way faster than the underlying econ sub-system designs are, and that's why all these econ dislocations are occurring: low adaptation speed. Speed of env. change > speed of adaption spells trouble for any species.

Plus, as I said before, it's fun.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 19:49 utc | 47

This world used to be covered in ice and then it warmed. Is what we are going through a natural phenomenon? I don't know, but I will find out.

Please think about the potential of the Russian military, and read about what they went through. Climate change pales in comparison to what we might go through.

Posted by: Karl luck | May 22 2022 19:43 utc | 45

it's caused by humans, humans are natural, so it's natural in that sense. climate change doesn't pale, it's just the worst effects are a few decades down the road, perhaps 20 years now due to our massive collective failure to deal with the problems, which reflects the control that giant corporations have over governments, particularly the US government.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 22 2022 19:55 utc | 48

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 19:49 utc | 47

he does a good job of demolishing some bullshit, like empire lies about Ukraine and Russia. on the subject of global warming, he catapults bullshit.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 22 2022 19:57 utc | 49

Operation Fly Formula (because no commercial flights were available.)

A military plane carrying enough specialty infant formula for more than half a million baby bottles arrived Sunday in Indianapolis, the first of several flights expected from Europe aimed at relieving a shortage that has sent parents scrambling to find enough to feed their children.
[...]
The White House has said 132 pallets of Nestle Health Science Alfamino Infant and Alfamino Junior formula was to leave Ramstein Air Base in Germany for the US. Another 114 pallets of Gerber Good Start Extensive HA formula were expected to arrive in the coming days. Altogether, about 1.5 million 8-ounce bottles of the three formulas, which are hypoallergenic for children with cow’s milk protein allergies, are expected to arrive this week.

Indianapolis was chosen because it is a Nestle distribution hub. The formula will be offloaded into FedEx semitractor-trailers and taken to a Nestle distribution center about a mile away where the company will do a standard quality control check before distributing the supplies to hospitals, pharmacies and doctor’s offices, according to an administration official on site.

Anyone here remember that vignette in V for Vendetta, when PROTHERO is singing in the shower about how the US had it all! But, of course, England prevails.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 22 2022 20:02 utc | 50

In a previous non-Ukulele thread, I linked an excellent summary of the drought in Western USA, by climate scientist Imtiaz Rangwala: "Studies suggest the Southwest’s ongoing 20-year drought is the most severe in at least 1,200 years, based on how dry the soils are."

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/05/20/grim-2022-drought-outlook-for-western-us/

I can confidently assert nobody alive has known a worse drought, where I live, based on the fairly solid assumption none of us is 1,200 years old.

Marine and air currents are fundamentally of a piece -- the ocean is slower, heavier, absorbs 90% of GHG's, and basically drives the global weather system. When fire-weather comes to California, I look offshore to the North Pacific Blob -- our more or less permanent marine heatwave. This nullschool tool (nothing to do with Aleph) might be a well-kept secret among climate geeks. Here's a very pretty nullschool picture of our Blob:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-120,37,2500

This is current conditions, but the tool can convey you backwards and forwards in time, for those interested in goofing off. If you're looking at it this weekend, you see a massive energetic whorl burnishing our California coast.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 20:55 utc | 51

"US military plane flies in 35 tonnes of baby formula from Germany"

In North Korea I would accept as normal that the army ships baby formula.

In the US I expect entrepreneurs to see business opportunities. If there is a shortage of baby formula I expect companies to make a profit from arbitrage.

At the end of the USSR, the Soviet army ended up with many crisis management tasks, simply because it was the only branch of government that still worked.

Posted by: Passerby | May 22 2022 21:05 utc | 52

@51 Aleph_Null:

Can you please interpret that nullschool animation? I assume that the energy-continuum (blue-yellows-red) legend and color-assignments to the flows means "amount of energy in the air column, principally heat, partly kinetic (wind). " Is that right? And what are the rest of the legend dimensions, like height (data-sample elevation in the air column?), overlay, and projection?

And the stationary pivot-point is the "blob" in the N. Pacific,? And that pivot-point, presumably, is where the "blob" is picking up heat from the ocean (warm water) and conveying it to the W. coast of CA?. Sort of like a hurricane, only it's stationary, and it's (maybe?) not seasonal, because it seems to be too early for hurricanes in either ocean.

Those are just my guesses. Please tell us what that animation is telling you.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 21:22 utc | 53

Please tell us what that animation is telling you.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 21:22 utc | 53

With pleasure. The "earth" button in the lower left-hand corner affords users a palette controlling which parameters to display, from which I chose an overlay called Wind Power Density (WPD) at a height of 850hPa, because it gives me some idea of wind currents and atmospheric pressure at the same time.

It's more complicated than this, of course, but I think of currents moving in two main ways: (1) winds blow, and (2) pressure systems migrate. That's what I'm looking for. From the WPD @ 850hPa I chose, I also get some idea of the high-pressure system out in the Pacific, in the center of the swirl.

Nullschool affords me a more precise mapping of Mean Sea Level Pressure -- via clicking on the MSLP overlay button. Another click on the "earth" button dismisses the control palette, then you can click in the middle of our Blob to see it has 1030hPa of pressure.

Needless to say, you can turn the view around and check out antipodean landscapes, at whatever point in time and zoom you like -- and it keeps rewriting its own URL in your browser, such that you can effortlessly send anyone a fully parameterized link. How cool is that, I ask you?

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 22:25 utc | 54

B still shilling covid. Yawn.

Just as the Russia-West hostilities represent cold war v2.0, except the sides have inverted, so to, in my years-long thinking of the covid response, have our governments revealed themselves as the plague, itself, and not a force to save it from its effects.

Oh, inverted world.

Like Camus' The Plague, but in reverse, we, the human beings in the story, do not band together to challenge the totalitarian effect of the disease, but we yield at all junctures to our globalist government that seeks its continued existence to keep us in submission.

We are doing the opposite of the protagonist physician from the Plague...we do not welcome the other in the face of danger, but we fear him and hide ourselves away from him like cowards. And we ask the government to save us.

How despicable we are in the west. Utterly spineless and startled by own shadow. There will be no Jungian overcoming and sublation of this shadow, either. It continues to consume us.

But if not for Putin and Russia, and for the American Conservative who is the one force pushing back on these terrible overlords, we would be irretrievably lost.

I beseech you, b. Please find your way back to reason on this front.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 22 2022 22:26 utc | 55

Scott Ritter gems for the day. Short utoob on US issues:

"I don't trust anybody in the US establishment who deals with nuclear force structure" Scott Ritter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2AWsSRY2SY

"We are the ultimate liers" - Scott Ritter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6cYX2j3ru0

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 22 2022 22:36 utc | 56

One more nullschool view of Blob weather data, this one in Ocean mode, focusing on SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly), which is +3.2C out there:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-130.00,37.00,2500

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 22:49 utc | 57

Tom Pfotzer

Plus, as I said before, it's fun.

Thank you, it sure is. Sometimes its akin to a daily visit to the arena.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 22 2022 23:06 utc | 58

Patroklos @12

Thanks for the Australian election sitrep. I felt a similar sense of relief in 2017 when the NZ Labour Party managed to return to power after 12 years National Party rule (mostly under the odious John Key, who earned the nickname 'The Smiling Assassin' during his time as a currency speculator at Merrill Lynch). Despite her background as a staffer in a Blairite 'red tape-cutting' department and affiliation to the notorious WEF Young Leaders Forum the new Labour PM came in with a decent program to battle rampant homelessness and finally bring in an Australian style 'award' system of industry-wide minimum pay and conditions.

Although the half-dozen cars full of homeless people who typically parked on my road to sleep each night disappeared pretty quickly as they were moved into emergency housing in motels, covid put paid to pretty much everything else. A coalition agreement with the right-populist NZ First party tempered any attempts to return to a more independent foreign policy, as its leader Winston Peters inherited an abject subservience to our 'traditional allies' from his mentor Rob Muldoon, the anti-neoliberal National Party PM of the 70s & 80s (neither managed to realise that alliance with USUK was incompatible with resistance to neoliberalism).

Labour won a 2nd term in 2020 with the 1st absolute majority since the introduction of proportional representation on the back of their covid response (although NZ was painted as an authoritarian nightmare under covid restrictions, NZrs outside Auckland lived almost entirely restriction-free from early 2020 til late 2021), but the atmosphere is now febrile with arrival of covid and sanctions-drivin inflation on top of each other. The MSM has returned to its default ass-kissing of the National Party under its new leader, a ScoMo-style corporate stooge who is a member of a secretive Christian cult open only to multimillionaires. Labour is likely be turfed out after only a couple of 3 year terms with virtually no major achievements for the working class.

Hopefully the Australian experience is more positive but the Labour Parties of the Anglosphere seem to be a lost cause, changing from working class parties reaching out to the urban middle class on the basis of basic human values to an urban middle class party reaching out to the working class on the basis of benign neglect (as opposed to visceral hatred from the Nats).

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | May 22 2022 23:06 utc | 59

Patroklos @12

Thanks for the Australian election sitrep. I felt a similar sense of relief in 2017 when the NZ Labour Party managed to return to power after 12 years National Party rule (mostly under the odious John Key, who earned the nickname 'The Smiling Assassin' during his time as a currency speculator at Merrill Lynch). Despite her background as a staffer in a Blairite 'red tape-cutting' department and affiliation to the notorious WEF Young Leaders Forum the new Labour PM came in with a decent program to battle rampant homelessness and finally bring in an Australian style 'award' system of industry-wide minimum pay and conditions.

Although the half-dozen cars full of homeless people who typically parked on my road to sleep each night disappeared pretty quickly as they were moved into emergency housing in motels, covid put paid to pretty much everything else. A coalition agreement with the right-populist NZ First party tempered any attempts to return to a more independent foreign policy, as its leader Winston Peters inherited an abject subservience to our 'traditional allies' from his mentor Rob Muldoon, the anti-neoliberal National Party PM of the 70s & 80s (neither managed to realise that alliance with USUK was incompatible with resistance to neoliberalism).

Labour won a 2nd term in 2020 with the 1st absolute majority since the introduction of proportional representation on the back of their covid response (although NZ was painted as an authoritarian nightmare under covid restrictions, NZrs outside Auckland lived almost entirely restriction-free from early 2020 til late 2021), but the atmosphere is now febrile with arrival of covid and sanctions-drivin inflation on top of each other. The MSM has returned to its default ass-kissing of the National Party under its new leader, a ScoMo-style corporate stooge who is a member of a secretive Christian cult open only to multimillionaires. Labour is likely be turfed out after only a couple of 3 year terms with virtually no major achievements for the working class.

Hopefully the Australian experience is more positive but the Labour Parties of the Anglosphere seem to be a lost cause, changing from working class parties reaching out to the urban middle class on the basis of basic human values to an urban middle class party reaching out to the working class on the basis of benign neglect (as opposed to visceral hatred from the Nats).

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | May 22 2022 23:06 utc | 60

Karlof often reduces the differences between western and eastern thought to zero-sum vs win-win. I notice that there is often a similar dynamic at play with respect to the way individuals see the environment, climate change etc. Tom and c1ue! You both seem to favour a win-win relationship with nature and I can barely follow what you’re even arguing about.

Divide and conquer is the only strategy the ruling class has ever needed.

(Also, holy fucking shit, how I have never heard of Bruniquel Cave! Amazing! Thanks psychohistorian.)

Posted by: Rae | May 22 2022 23:24 utc | 61

"..I beseech you, b. Please find your way back to reason on this front." NemesisCalling@55

Nobody objects to a person who believes that he is right, even when a bright five year old could see that he isn't. But your contributions grow more pretentious by the day.

And harder to understand.

Are you suggesting that the Russian and Chinese governments responded to the Covid pandemic in similar ways?

Are you suggesting that the policies advocated by b were unlike those carried out in China?

The proper response to any public health emergency is to do everything necessary to prevent premature deaths and in particular to afford protection to the most vulnerable members of society.

To sacrifice these principles to the desire of the wealthy and powerful to make money is disgraceful and a step towards the policies practised by Nazi medical practitioners who encouraged and hastened the deaths of both the weak and those they regarded as inferior to themselves.

Posted by: bevin | May 22 2022 23:31 utc | 62

NemesisCalling | May 22 2022 22:26 utc | 55
dear B, please ignore the Brontosaurus brains

Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 22 2022 23:32 utc | 63

An example of a reasonably intelligent person, Vaclav Smil, writing for a distinguished environmental site, YaleE360, presenting a typical argument against coherent reality:

Such predictably repetitive prophecies (however well-meant and however passionately presented) do not offer any practical advice about the deployment of the best possible technical solutions, about the most effective ways of legally binding global cooperation, or about tackling the difficult challenge of convincing populations of the need for significant expenditures whose benefits will not be seen for decades to come.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/beyond-magical-thinking-time-to-get-real-about-climate-change

It boils down to this: If we're coherently accurate about the state of things, well then what would people think? Reality could be a dangerous poison for people to imbibe, as it makes them so discouraged, they just give up. Don't tell us about that approaching hurricane until you've prepared a general solution for hurricanes.

I've seen the same anti-reality sermon, from distinguished, supposedly scientific quarters, for decades.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 22 2022 23:45 utc | 64

I think that the Bruniquel Cave, checking in at 176,000 years ago, more fits the oldest claim for human temple.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 22 2022 18:24 utc | 42

***

I hadn't heard of Bruniquel Cave till this, thank you! Especially awed hearing how it predates homo sapiens, and by so much.

Posted by: Vintage Red | May 22 2022 23:45 utc | 65

About 10 years ago my wife just happened to meet the chief of the local Abenaki tribe and told her "we are growing your corn." The chief was surprised because the Abenakis had lost the corn many generations ago. We gave them some seed and they started growing it. They studied it and tested it and determined it to be original Abenaki corn.

Posted by: Chas | May 22 2022 19:48 utc | 46

***

This is very wild that you were able to return their traditional corn to them after so long!

I never got up that far north but in the '80s I used to go to Plymouth Rock every "Thanksgiving", and met Micmac, Wampanoag and Mohawk activists alongside many non-Native supporters at the National Day of Mourning. I imagine this corn or something very close was grown by them as well—I hope it has found its way to all the northeastern nations.

Posted by: Vintage Red | May 22 2022 23:46 utc | 66

Down South | May 22 2022 13:21 utc | 3
lots of people are being unmasked by the virus. it's like a black hole in which what we see is pure projection. certainly true of Engdahl, though i'm sure he's convinced himself how big global health is both hoarding vaccines and pushing a vaccine scam on the world, at the exact same time. oh the hobgoblins of little minds. just imagine how much more powerful Big Pharma would be if Sinovac could be imported around the world!

this is not per se directed to you, DS, but it's funny how ivermectin just slipped off everybody's radar, ESPECIALLY the numerous commentators who touted that bullshit for two straight years.

what the coronavirus is revealing is just how much people do not care how their actions affect themselves or anyone around them. the microscopic droplets of their words are infectious toxins against which one really needs a hazmat suit.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 22 2022 23:53 utc | 67

bevin | May 22 2022 23:31 utc | 61
well said, but LOL! try telling an american that a sick person needs rest, that is, to STOP. no less true of the world, esp the US, relative to any of its problems. a patient who refuses to recognize his own morbidity is what again? the walking dead. the kind that doesn't return.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 22 2022 23:57 utc | 68

Welcome to the European Drought Observatory! (lagging indicators)
and
NIDIS Drought.gov (illustrated weekly!)

Then, try to act surprised.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 23 2022 0:50 utc | 69

@57 Aleph_Null:

First, thx for follow-up explanations,and esp. for that 2nd link showing sea-temps.

However, now I'm _really_ confused. How come?

a. In the wind-current model, the color/legend units are kwH per meter squared. So, that's an amount of energy (heat content, obviously, and maybe energy of motion (kinetic); it's sure not electricity or photons/sunlight) of a flat surface 1 meter by 1 meter.
If the model is showing atmospheric energy content (heat and wind-motion), how come it's in units of energy per square meter (flat) and not volumetric, like in cubic meters? Puzzles me. Can you help me figure out what I'm missing?

b. If you compare the sea-temp model, and the air-energy model, you'd sorta expect the air-mass to be responding more or less directly to the heat in the water. It doesn't. The air-mass stays cool, even while (repeatedly) cycling over top of (relatively) warm water ... until it reaches the CA west coast (where there's _cooler water_, and then suddenly the air heats up.

So, clearly the air is accumulating heat as it moves clockwise over the blob, but it's not clear where that energy is coming from. Are you seeing what I'm seeing, and does that make sense to you?

No hurry to respond, get to it if it's interesting to you.

Thx again for the link. I'd never seen those models before. Way cool.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 23 2022 1:04 utc | 70

kw/area not kwh. It is power flux. and the (per area) refers to the infintesimal area perpendicular to the arrow, not to an earth surface area.

Posted by: Platero | May 23 2022 1:17 utc | 71

Posted by: Passerby | May 22 2022 21:05 utc | 52

Maybe there ought to be a law? A law to fund no-low interest loans for NEW! market entrants, start-up incubators, and pilot project schemes? Hey, maybe activists can press Biden to exercise the Defense Production Act "to the fullest" and do some trust-busting before mid-terms!
Baby formula bill faces rocky terrain in Senate

Just four companies control more than 90 percent of the formula market, including Abbott Nutrition, which operated the Michigan plant.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 23 2022 1:24 utc | 72

@70 Platero: Thanks!

My typo (KwH) I meant Kw per meter squared, but wrote kwH.

But you're saying this number is energy flux (level or amount of energy) moving thru some medium, e.g. the air, at a point in space (perpendicular to the colored lines). And that energy is heat, and has no kinetic component (e.g. wind-speed).

Did I get that right this time?

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 23 2022 1:56 utc | 73

Came across this at the website that shall not be named -
https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/smith-mundt-modernization-act-2012

Really, changes everthing - its not like we thought.

Posted by: jared | May 23 2022 2:14 utc | 74

@72: Note to myself, for the benefit of anyone else interested in understanding those two models Aleph_Null posted above.

Upon further review, that first model shows wind power density, e.g. how much force would be exerted upon a flat area 1 x 1 meter placed perpendicular to the wind-direction. This figure is commonly used to calculate how much energy a windmill could extract from a given windspeed. This model is not showing heat at all; it's showing force of wind only.

And the second model shows water temp anomaly - e.g. how different the water temp is .vs. what it "ought" to be.

So, the two diagrams together tell a story about unusually warm water stationed in the N. Pacific which is generating some amount of wind that is cycling in a great loop, one side of which is adjacent to CA.

This model offers controls to show relative humidity. As Aleph_Null mentioned, the surface level RH along the CA coast is in single digits... 9 percent. Central valley - the big agricultural production area, is about 15%.

That's really dry. By contrast, where I live on the East / Mid-Atlantic, the RH is about 70%, about normal for this time of year. Comfortable.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 23 2022 2:24 utc | 75

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 14:17 utc | 10

A most fascinating comment from an unreliable often fact free based magazine. Notorious, for falsely claiming "global cooling is upon us"! Way back in 1975. The reality was this fictitious claim. Was in direct opposition to the actual scientific publications of the day! Information reliability scale on a scale of 1(very poor) to 10(first class). Should be around a permanent static level of 1!

As, for the so called out right lie concerning Greece/Turkey friction, magazine claimed. That too, could have easily been solved by the then Greek PM E Venizelos. Had he accepted the UK offer in 1911. Thus preventing the French Government seizure of the "Royal Hellenic Navy". During WW1 too.

The current mess we see on the same island today . Was the direct result of scum Greek terrorists using a combination of land theft and genocide back in the sixties !

Truth is stranger than fiction..........

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 23 2022 2:27 utc | 76

OK, so obviously this monkey-shit virus is the next scam. But it doesn't mean it's not dangerous, amirite ?

So we gotta make sure we stay on top of it.

I was also thinking about, hesitating to mention it, but because of the upcoming grain shortage.... the US has something called "wheat rust" or something, that is a bio-agent that attacks crops... Something to keep in mind.

Posted by: Featherless | May 23 2022 2:41 utc | 77

@ Tom Pfotzer | May 23 2022 1:04 utc | 69
It is power flux. and the (per area) refers to the infintesimal area perpendicular to the arrow, not to an earth surface area.
@ Platero | May 23 2022 1:17 utc | 70

The full name is Instantaneous Wind Power Density (thanks for explaining "power flux"). From what I can tell, this metric was meant to indicate how much oomph the wind will impart to a windmill-blade. For that you need wind-velocity and air-density (kissing cousin to air-pressure). Simply viewing "wind" rather than "WPD" might be easier to understand, but I like WPD for a quick composite view of these parameters.

Your question (b), Tom, sounds like inquiry into the interaction of various strata of the atmosphere (and ocean, for that matter). The troposphere is a layer-cake, and height of the cake as well as the thickness of its layers keeps changing -- while the tidal height keeps changing... We tend to think of weather two-dimensionally, but the components of weather (heat, humidity, air-pressure) rise and sink, traversing the layers. I can't claim to understand it, only to understand a little about what I'd like to understand. (My prospective textbook: Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics by John Marshall and R. Alan Plumb.) Nullschool facilitates exploration of atmospheric layers via the height parameter.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 23 2022 3:12 utc | 78

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | May 22 2022 23:06 utc | 59

Thanks for your input. I had felt the NZ political situation had been doing better as far as the covid measures until, that is, the vaccines were introduced. Trust in government had seemed warranted; the handling of the shooter in Christchurch was competent; some independent thinking on the part of government internationally...and then it all fell apart. It was bad enough here in the US, but the lemminglike rush over what I still feel was the grand canyon of all medical catastrophes (when they had been doing so well early on with China-like policies) simply confounded me. And now Russiaphobia. At least here in the US something like normalcy is creeping into our virus perceptions, while the connection between both germ warfare and regime change is looking to be less like the elephant in the room and more like the picture of Dorian Grey.

I do hope Australia will be well served by its new leadership. Bravo to its citizens for turfing out the old. Now if they and my native land could only turf out the neos... friends, this is not the US that helped save us during WW2; this is something else, not even the US it was when I myself joined it. Break free if you can!

Posted by: juliania | May 23 2022 3:55 utc | 79

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:41 utc | 32

No the problem with you morons that endlessly parrot post=1970s Exxxon fake science is that you can't ever seem to see the nuances or the differences between what you think we're saying and what's actually said.

And no, when the tropical portion of the globe loses more trees in a month (or is it a day) the size of Bangladesh, t this isn't fear mongering FFS. Care to indulge me as to your own area of expertise? Because it's starting to seem like post 1970s Exxon "scientist" aka "IT and Marketing Specialist."

bevin - absolutely not. The Industrial Revolution was never fueled by wood. Period.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 23 2022 4:42 utc | 80

@ tom.. did you see the post i directed to you @ 30? i thought it was relevant..

Posted by: james | May 23 2022 4:54 utc | 81

Difference Frames the world presents an interesting 10 minute review of the new Australian government on utoob.

"Can We Trust the New Australian Government?"

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23 2022 5:22 utc | 82

I am already fascinated by the monkeypox rabbit that just appeared out of the hat. It landed in 10 countries in 10 days and no organic pandemic can possibly arise in this way - teleportation rather than travel. Yet here it is.

What fascinates me most is how the conversations will go. Consider...

* The WHO will get true sovereign authority to its pandemic diktats, yet the matter of who will obey or rebel remains to be seen.

* We have 300 US biowarfare labs around the world, and a potentially superb infrastructure to plant a virus in 10 countries in 10 days.

* The coronavirus timeline as we now review it shows that the virus had an ability to arise in multiple locations in short sequences that cannot be explained by air travel: it still takes time for a disease to spread, and that time was leap-frogged by Covid.

* And the monkeypox can be obviated by the old vaccine for smallpox, but we stopped giving that shot 4 decades ago because smallpox was declared eradicated, and while the old vaccine still exists and is "85% effective", it is out of patent and won't be pushed by any profit-oriented enterprise.

* Meanwhile, a new vaccine for "smallpox/monkeypox" was developed and patented in 2019 - for a disease that was dead four decades ago and showed no sign of reappearing.

* The US government has already bought 13 million doses of the new vaccine (so I believe - I'm not checking sources during this particular diatribe).

* And one year ago a pandemic seminar was held by key players, gaming specifically an outbreak of "monkeypox" a year later, in mid-May, 2022.

* And there are a few more factors - Whitney has a piece at Unz that covers this - but this is not that discussion. Rather it's a meta question asking frankly if we can even have that discussion here.

The fishiness, the phoniness, the sheer brazen stupefaction of mounting this campaign so soon and so unbelievably speaks greatly to the hubris and incompetence of the ruling classes. But here it comes, and they will push for every mile they can get from every inch we give them.

The WHO issue - happening right now, by the way - is simply another aspect that is larger than life and more in one's face than one could imagine, even after the abuses of the past two years.

~~

So, the conversation. Will we be allowed to discuss this monkey piss that they are definitely taking? Can we discuss the Russian discoveries that are uncovering the US biolabs and their nefarious activities? Can we begin to trace the delivery mechanisms and nodes for biowar against selected parts of the world?

Can we discuss treatments for monkeypox (that have already been detailed in a thread here thanks to librul), not to mention the existing vaccine (for a disease that is very hard to catch and generally clears up after a while)?

Can we, in short, discuss here - and anywhere and everywhere in the western world - how we as a global population seem to be under a biological terror that may not be natural and organic, but which may at the very least have had a gain of function?

Or will the boot stamping on the face forever that came down during Covid continue to choke our discussion with this monkey business in front of our faces right now?

I guess we shall see...

Posted by: Grieved | May 23 2022 5:53 utc | 83

I am fully with you, Grieved. When I first heard about monkeypox, I was like, "Okay. here we go again."
I think we're screwed.

Posted by: lex talionis | May 23 2022 6:03 utc | 84

@83 lex talionis | May 23 2022 6:03 utc

This is serendipitous - greetings! I now have the book you recommended - it was only available as a Kindle during the time you were enthusing over it. I had to wait for the paperback. Very, very well written - I've just started it and have a ways to go yet.

I don't mention the title or the author because when I tried to do that recently the Typepad filter threw my comment to moderation.

But yes, I agree it's a great book, and thank you for it.

~~

ps...I don't agree that we're necessarily screwed. Rather like the pox, the tyrannical oppression has to break you out into suppurations for one to begin to take action.

They are making this cartoonishly obvious, enough so that it may increase the already significant pool of people who don't buy the lie. There may be a large push back.

Posted by: Grieved | May 23 2022 6:16 utc | 85

testing a book title: States of Emergency

Posted by: Grieved | May 23 2022 6:17 utc | 86

Testing a book author: Kees van der Pijl

(and if this goes through, I don't know what blocked my endorsement of it a few weeks ago)

Posted by: Grieved | May 23 2022 6:18 utc | 87

Hi Grieved! I am super happy that you read the book! I hold Kees van der Pijl in great esteem. His book on MH17 is great. I am not educated enough to get through The Makings of an Atalantacist Ruling Class, but I try.
He is a brilliant mind. As well as yourself. I always find your postings most insightful. Much love from Los Angeles.

Posted by: lex talionis | May 23 2022 6:28 utc | 88

Still clearing the coffee outta my nose at the clueless one's latest outrageous bullshit that "there are more trees in amerika than there were 100 years ago"

Yeah right and "there have been n million jobs created since I won" another deceit, since the 'jobs' are in the gig economy, zero hours contract and one person needs to hold down at least 4 or 5 of them to keep the heating on. Of course the spindly Fuchsia I've stuck in the back paddock is equal to 1 kauri cos clueless says so.
Even the linked article asks "Quantity over quality?" and says:

The average age of forests in the United States is younger than it was before European settlement. The greatest diversity is found in the oldest forests, so there may be more forest now, but because it is so young, it is home for fewer animals, plants, insects and other organisms than a fully developed, mature forest ecosystem. It also means that protecting old growth forests is imperative.

Every week this site is subjected to reams of the past days' assiduously 'curated', cherry picked nonsense which attempts to buttress the clueless one's entirely subjective and self-serving take on our world, those gullible enough will continue their unquestioning acceptance, others able to push past sophomoric twaddle, and think for themselves, will not.
Bring back the Brazilian!

Posted by: Debsisdead | May 23 2022 9:27 utc | 89

Every week this site is subjected to reams of the past days' assiduously 'curated', cherry picked nonsense which attempts to buttress the clueless one's entirely subjective and self-serving take on our world, those gullible enough will continue their unquestioning acceptance, others able to push past sophomoric twaddle, and think for themselves, will not.
Posted by: Debsisdead | May 23 2022 9:27 utc | 89

Yes, thanks, altho daily is prolly more like it. I set my clock by it.

Posted by: waynorinorway | May 23 2022 10:46 utc | 90

@ Bruised Northerner

I finally got the scoop on the helicopter crash in Gander last month:
They were practicing some low altitude maneuver when the pilots seat latch disengaged. They couldn't manipulate the pedals a crucial time and shit happened.
I got this from a pregnant woman at a bar so it has to be true lol

2 weeks ago about 2squadrons of A10's came through with external fuel tanks. Guess where they were headed?

Posted by: PleaseBeleafMe | May 23 2022 11:15 utc | 91

Grieved: thank you and stay vigilant.

Debsisdead well said

waynorinorway "set the clock by it" Loved it :)) and I too expect input from that sector at a certain hour as well.

I am fairly certain the monkeypox trick comes from the same organ grinder.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23 2022 11:17 utc | 92

German defense spending just disappears among other ridiculous sleight of hands.

John Mark Dougan - I talk with Thomas Roper about Azov and German Corruption

Thomas Roper is one of the most intelligent geopolitical experts I've ever met, and he's been battling corruption in Germany for years now. We talk about Azov and other topics you will like in this short conversation. Thomas can be found at anti-spiegel.ru - you can use Google Chrome to translate his writings into English.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23 2022 11:57 utc | 93

1) Are humans really the majority factor? And if so, is it really CO2 (as opposed to land use, ecological displacement etc) that is how humans are changing the climate?

Posted by: c1ue | May 22 2022 16:11 utc | 26

You must have done graduate work in obfuscation. This point alone is so full of misdirection that it's worthy of some attention.

a) Are humans really the majority factor?

What is the importance of that? "Are humans a contributing factor" is the relevant question. If humans contribute 49% of climate change, then we're fine?

b) And if so, is it really CO2 (as opposed to land use, ecological displacement etc) that is how humans are changing the climate?

The answer is all of the above. Greenhouse gases absorb photons from the sun before they can escape the atmosphere and return to space. This retains energy in the atmosphere. You can read all about it here. If there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it would be too cold for us delicate humans. If there is too much greenhouse gases, the atmosphere retains too much energy and climate changes from the relatively benign state of the Holocene and becomes less stable and more violent.

It's a reinforcing loop.

Meanwhile, we are busily destroying the balancing loops that keep greenhouse gases and the climate in check. Trees and other plants take CO2 (but not NH4) out of the atmosphere--a balancing loop. But human development has been busily paving over paradise for decades. When human development destroys forests, much of the carbon they have stored is released into the atmosphere. We have managed to change the Amazon forest from one of the largest carbon sequestering forests on the planet into a net carbon emitter--in large part to raise cattle for life-shortening hamburgers.

The boreal forest, another balancing loop that had been removing CO2 from the atmosphere, is losing its positive impact in a less direct way. While logging is an issue and works the same way as clearing Amazon jungle, global impacts on climate are changing patterns in the boreal that will release vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere if they're not reversed. The boreal climate is already warmer and drier than in the pre-industrial era. That's leading to more frequent fires, and more frequent fires are leading to big carbon releases.

And some of the Earth's balancing loops continue to operate but have severe and damaging side effects. Carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans. The problem is that dissolving CO2 in water produces an excess of hydrogen ions PH -) and a surfeit of carbonate ions (PH +), both of which are detrimental to ocean life.

There are elements of truth in your posts on this topic. It's true that there is no way to retain current energy consumption levels with so-called renewables, much less continue to meet exponentially increasing demand. There is no solution without very large decreases in consumption among the world's wealthiest 10% who are responsible for 50% of carbon emissions.

And I've seen you say something along the lines that the only way that consumption will be reduced is revolution (please correct me if I've misstated your view). It will require a revolutionary change in worldview, though that need not lead to widespread violence. There are two primary obstacles standing in the way of such a radical change in worldview:

1) obfuscation of the realities of what we're doing to the planet along the lines of what you engage in here; and

2) relentless pressure to consume exerted by capitalist economies.

You offer no solutions to our situation, preferring to blame it on some god, the Earth, the sun, innate and unchangeable human propensities or some other cause beyond our control. So at least quit blocking the hall with your pointless obfuscation.

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 23 2022 12:26 utc | 94

The other part is that biz-analyst types (c1ue has a lot of that background, as he/she demonstrates often) tend to do what I call "incremental-think" as contrasted with "imagination".

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 22 2022 19:49 utc | 47

That's a very diplomatic way of saying that his thinking is trapped in a box, and he's inviting us to join him.

It's the biz-analyst types who have been indispensable in bringing us to this point of crisis. Bottom line thinking inevitably takes you to the bottom.

And his posts move way beyond skepticism to clever obfuscation. We don't need bad faith players in dealing with this topic.

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 23 2022 12:46 utc | 95

@94 Henry Moon Pie:

Well done, Henry.

At some point I hope we'll start the dialog about how we're going to "move down the hallway" and get on with evolving our culture, in the directions you're suggesting. We particularly need to evolve the technology nec to support that culture.

"technology" in the sense of "what humans know how to do". Doesn't nec have to be machines and computer boards and blinkin' lights.

That "technology" might just be great organizational design, or a set of cultural norms, or even "selection pressure" techniques that each of us can exert in our daily lives to reward / dis-incentivize the "plants" we encounter which exhibit behaviors that do/ do not move us in the direction we want to go.

I feel we're spending too much time protesting and convincing, and not enough time developing and testing out alternatives.

And there's a big enough quorum of ready-willing-and-ables out there - right now - to get plenty done. We need to hook up, learn to work together, and "have a better party" that people will just naturally gravitate to because it meets their needs. All of their needs, including paying their bills.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 23 2022 12:54 utc | 96

The older I get, the more I think that few people understood America and Americans better than John Waters.

As Peggy Gravel said in his film Desperate Living:

"Look at these disgusting trees stealing my oxygen! I can't stand this scenery another minute! All natural forests should be turned into housing developments! I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?"

That was 1977; Reagan's notorious comment about trees causing more pollution than automobiles came four years later.

Posted by: malenkov | May 23 2022 13:06 utc | 97

Regarding the climate debate:

It seems to me that those advocating severe policies to tackle climate change think that if we do what needs doing to make a difference that we could all live in a big happy garden of eden if only we could muster the collective will to do so. Sure there are things that each individual can do to make a difference in that regard but for most of us it will bring about severe economic and political consequences. How many people in a globalized world will have to suffer and die to bring about real change? Do you seriously believe that our governments have a sane and realizable plan to bring us to the promised land?
How many wars/social strife would severe climate change policies lead to?
Maybe that's why were rapidly going to hell with the covid disruptions. The only way to make changes is to crash the planet from continuing on its present course. Then let us fight it out to see who's left.
Maybe it is all necessary but it's a huge gamble with many negative consequences.

Posted by: PleaseBeleafMe | May 23 2022 13:23 utc | 98

@Tom Pfotzer #47

You said:

You forgot to mention that part of the article, c1ue.

That's why I try to post sources. But GIGO - it should surprise no one that the gigantic US federal government gravy train doesn't induce climate change derangement syndrome.

You said:

c1ue: " the vast majority of humanity doesn't want to suffer immediate standard of living losses" [from implementing so-called "green" policies].

Tom: Please detail for me the std of living reduction that accompanies the renewable-to-fuel-to-electricity plan I set out. Just for example. And then electric cars. Internet. Telework. Increased fuel efficiency in ICEs. Migrating to plant protein .vs. animal. Solar panels. Windmills. Insulation. High-efficiency HVAC gear. LED lights. Tell me about all the horror those innovations and economic adaptations have wreaked on our std of living.

I've already detailed that the metals, mineral and electricity need to change road transport from ICE to EV or hybrid is enormous. The climate benefit, when this is all taken into account, is dubious at best and the possibility of it happening is even more dubious given the enormous material amounts in question (way over world reserves).

I also like how you insert a few things that work, with the things that don't work. We were talking about alternative energy in particular.

Insulation is insulation - it has been used for hundreds of years so is irrelevant. Telework has been clearly demonstrated to be useless for real world work: diversity consultants can do it but people who actually produce things cannot. etc etc.

As for standard of living reduction: there is a 100% correlation between high utility bill prices and percentage of alternative energy. Highest priced electricity in Europe: Denmark. Highest priced electricity in the lower 48 continental US (Alaska and Hawaii are special cases) in cents per kWh:

Connecticut 19.13

Rhode Island 18.54

Massachusetts 18.19

California 18

New Hampshire 16.63

Vermont 16.33

Note US overall: 10.59 cents per kWh

Now, are the above states "green" or "fossil fuel"?

c1ue: I just finished a review of electricity curtailments: it is astounding. Between California, Texas, China, Germany and the UK - over 40 million megawatt hours of electricity is thrown away EVERY SINGLE YEAR. And the China/Germany/UK data is from 2015 or 2016 - thus curtailments there are 99.9% likely to be much higher. Curtailments aren't free - it literally costs money to throw electricity away, but these costs are somehow ignored when calculating supposed cheaper alternative energy. Nor are the costs of backup - either imported electricity or peaker fossil fuel plants - counted.

Tom: It simply beggars belief that you can set out this paragraph above and then say "it's a stupid idea to capture and use the energy we're currently throwing away".

It beggars belief that you cannot understand how difficult it is to economically make use of intermittent electricity. In fact, what I am working on is precisely how to make lemons out of this giant shitpot of lemonade.

c1ue: (in response to Tom's assertion that price rise curtails demand): Nice of you to bring neoliberal economics into the picture. Sadly, the real world is quite different.

Tom: supply and demand interactions are not new, or neoliberal. Please name for me that economic school of thought that rejects the dynamic of price impact on supply and demand. Sorry, c1ue, real world, price affects demand. Even for short-run "inelastic demand", if supply is constrained long enough, substitutions happen. Always. Please identify an exception.

Economists who understand something of the real world, understand that supply and demand do not magically rise just because one side exceeds the other.
The real world has business cycles because the future is unpredictable and capital investments into growth always eventually overshoot actual demand growth.
The neoliberals assume "the free market" will provide when in reality, there are almost infinite confounding factors ranging from monopoly/monopsony/oligopoly to underinvestment to lag.

The recent European attempt to wean itself off Russian natural gas is just the latest example of reality trumping von der Crazy/Habeckian idiocy.

Other examples: Is the number of miles driven by the US affected by the price of gasoline? Look at the historical data: the answer is "not much": Federal Reserve data of miles driven in US, historical

Do you see the impact of the Oil Embargo? It is barely detectable...

You said:

Tom: Keep up the good work. No snark.

I do it because I live in one of the 2 cities in the US where going carless is possible, without enormous lifestyle disruption. But I recognize that this is an exceptional situation. Furthermore, I do this despite having the economic resources to not do so: I owned 2-8 series Audis up until I decided to try going carless after one was vandalized to the point of being totaled in 2016. On the food side: I have a job where I get paid more than enough that I can spend the extra time riding public transport, processing and cooking food, and I enjoy it on top of being a cheap bastard.

The difference here is that I am voluntarily doing this - I am not forcing anyone else to do so either via outright legal coercion or social pressure.

c1ue: I am not, however, wedded to an ideology - and a wrong one at that.

Tom: Which ideology are you ascribing to me?

Technotopian nonsense combined with climate doom-mongering.

Every one of the behavioral changes I've advocated deliver real-world right-now economic benefits, in addition to enhancing my (and your) longer-term security and maybe survival potential. Some of them even help re-distribute wealth-creation capacity into middle-class, which is sorely needed.

Show me where the "ideology" is, please, and name the ideology.

The nonsense technologies don't matter - insulation is right up there with the German admonition to turn thermostats to 15C, wear warm clothes and don't shower more than once a week.

The technologies that are mattering: alternative energy.

Unless you are truly off grid and relying 100% on alternative energy electricity production (and all that it entails), you are not actually benefiting from alt-e adoption. You are free-riding on the generation and transmission grid via installation, feed-in and grid maintenance cost avoidance subsidies.

The reality is that solar PV and wind are many multiples of cost per kWh generated even just looking at install costs - LCOE cleverly avoids that by:
1) Using ridiculously optimistic capacity factors for solar PV and wind, including
2) Assumption that all solar PV and wind are optimally placed and with the most expensive/highest yielding technology
3) Assumption that the load balancing, duck curve and curtailment costs are zero
4) Assumption that backup costs are zero

So no, can't say that I either ascribe to the ideology or the notion that the alt-e technology is superior in any way.
Nor are the curves promising: the real problem with alt-e is storage and the possibility of a solution for that is very low because of the energy density issue combined with the sheer enormity of utility-scale energy flows.

Posted by: c1ue | May 23 2022 14:36 utc | 99

Posted by: Patroklos | May 22 2022 14:36 utc | 12 et al

Thanks for your early call.

Libs don't like to remember that women are half the population. The beating war drum propaganda follows decades of similar warmongering bullshit.

Women don't want to lose their sons to senseless wars off choice.

One reflection, the Libs have learnt nothing from their humiliating defeat. Labor has forgotten nothing and will also learn nothing.

I must read more Nietzsche.

Posted by: Paul | May 23 2022 14:39 utc | 100