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If Ukraine Is Winning Why Is The U.S. Requesting A Ceasefire?
Yesterday the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu.
Why?
The U.S. readout of the call says:
On May 13, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu for the first time since February 18. Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication.
Austin initiated the call and the U.S. is seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine!!!
Are we not told that the Ukraine is winning the war? That it will soon push the Russian forces back over the border? The operation to 'weaken Russia', which Austin had publicly announced two weeks ago, does not seem to go that well.
Told ya so!
Gonzalo Lira thinks that the call points to a soon coming collapse of the Ukrainian forces. Let us hope that this is indeed the case because it seems to be the only chance that the war will end soon.
The Ukraine is losing up to 15,000 men per month to the war. The total Ukrainian casualties, dead and wounded, are likely already at 50,000. The weapons the U.S. and others provide, are not sufficient to sustain the war. The Ukraine has only 3 days reserves of diesel and gasoline left. The main parts of its forces are immobile and are getting surrounded by Russian forces. Their situation is hopeless.
The Pentagon of course knows this all and that is why Austin initiated the call and asked for a ceasefire.
The Russia side will not agree to a ceasefire. At least not unless the 'west' offers to take back some of the 6,400 sanction measures it has initiated against Russia.
There are recently a number of other issues that also go in favor of Russia:
- The economic outlook for Russia is good. It will have a record wheat harvest. Its internal measures to compensate for the results of sanctions are working. Counter sanctions Russia has now initiated against its enemies are starting to become effective.
- Hungary has blocked European sanctions against Russian oil.
- Turkey is slowing down if not prohibiting the entry of Kurd friendly Sweden and Norway into NATO.
- The U.S. weapon deliveries to Ukraine will stop on May 19 unless Congress passes authority for new ones.
- Senator Rand Paul has held up the required bill with the quite reasonable demand to have a inspector general scrutinize where the $40 billion 'for Ukraine' will be going. The Democrats will certainly dislike that.
- U.S. gasoline prices have hit a record high.
- European natural gas prices have also jumped after the Ukraine blocked the flow from Russia through one of the pipelines and while the flow through the Yamal pipeline in Poland has been stopped due to Russian counter sanctions.
- Le Monde has verified and published a video that shows a Ukrainian 'volunteer battalion', led by a known criminal, torturing Russian prisoners of war.
- Russia has published new material about the U.S. military biological 'research' in Ukraine. Other countries will also have questions about these activities.
The British Ministry of Defense claims that Russia lost a significant amount of material and men in an attempt to cross the Seversky Donets river. However the aerial pictures published by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry show that about half of the destroyed vehicles are BMP-1 with the original small one man turret and the stubby 73 mm gun. Russia is said to no longer have these. All its active service BMP-1 are said to have been upgraded and now have different turrets with 30 mm machine cannons with longer rifles. There must have been a larger battle over the crossing with probably both sides taking heavy losses. Moreover the fighting is now on the western side of the river. The Russian forces thus must have crossed the river in significant numbers.
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Lavrov reams the West without using any lubricant in his address to the XXX Assembly of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy. His entire address is filled with diplomatic expletives such that it’s difficult to just excerpt bits, and it’s only available in Russian. There is a video available at the top of the page, but I haven’t tested it. So, here’s the complete machine translation without any parsing or additional emphasis:
Dear Fyodor Alexandrovich,
Dear Sergey Alexandrovich,
Colleagues
I am glad to be here again at the anniversary Assembly. The last time we met in the same room was on October 2, 2021, feeling as if it was in a completely different historical era.
I would like to congratulate you on the 30th anniversary of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy. The activities of the Council are an excellent example of the fruitful participation of domestic experts in the foreign policy process. From the very beginning, a course was taken to ensure that the SWAP unites professionals: politicians, officials, journalists, scientists, entrepreneurs. All these years it provides an effective, efficient combination of practical experience with perfect knowledge of the “mathematical part”. This is the key to understanding the most complex international processes. Especially at stages like today. Advice, analytical materials, discussions (sometimes sharp, where views collide) help us. We actively take them into account in our foreign policy activities.
It is trite to say that the meeting takes place at a crucial time. I agree with the experts (Sergei Karaganov and Fyodor Lukyanov have written a lot about this) who say that today, just like in 1917 or 1991, we are facing a choice of a historical path.
External circumstances have not just changed radically. They change deeper and wider every day (it does not work higher). Our country is changing with them. Draws his own conclusions. The choice we have made is facilitated by the fact that the “collective West” has declared us an all-out hybrid war. It’s hard to predict how long this will last. It is clear that the consequences will be felt by everyone without exception.
We did everything to avoid a direct collision. But once a challenge is made, we accept it. We are no strangers to sanctions. In one form or another, they were almost always. The surge of cave Russophobia that occurred in all “civilized” countries is surprising. Political correctness, decency, rules and legal norms have been discarded. A culture of abolishing everything Russian is applied. Any hostile actions against our country, including outright looting, are permitted. Our cultural figures, artists, athletes, scientists, businessmen – just Russians – are being harassed.
This campaign did not bypass our diplomats. They often have to work in extreme conditions, sometimes at risk to health and life. Even in the darkest years of the Cold War, we will not recall such a mass synchronous expulsion of diplomats. This destroys the overall atmosphere of relations with the West. On the other hand, it frees up forces and human resources to work in those areas with which it is necessary to associate the future development of our country.
In accordance with the requirements of the time, we conscientiously perform our professional duties in full. Traitors among the diplomats could not be found. Although such attempts were made from abroad and within the country. We do our best to protect the rights and interests of our citizens abroad. When the hysterical reaction of the West to the beginning of a special military operation followed and all flights were stopped, we urgently provided the necessary assistance in returning to their homeland citizens who were at that moment abroad. The current tasks (there have always been many of them) for consular services to Russians are not removed. It is clear that the situation required the transfer of the diplomatic service to a special regime. This is required by the new tasks set by the country’s leadership to protect national interests.
It’s not only and not so much about Ukraine. It is a tool for restraining the peaceful development of the Russian Federation in the context of the policy of “perpetuating” the unipolar world order.
The Americans began to prepare for the current crisis a long time ago – immediately after the end of the Cold War, deciding that the way to achieve global hegemony was now open. One of the key components of this course was the expansion of NATO to the East. We have long and persistently urged not to do this. They showed where and why our “red lines” are drawn. We showed flexibility, readiness to meet halfway, to look for compromises. Everything turned out to be in vain. This was again recalled by President of Russia Vladimir Putin in his speech on May 9 this year on Red Square.
Today, westerners are ready to counteract Russia, as they say now, “to the last Ukrainian.” At first glance, this is a very convenient position, especially for the United States, which conducts processes from overseas. At the same time, they weaken Europe, freeing up its markets for their goods, technologies, and military-technical products.
In fact, the situation is multi-layered. Russia, the United States, China and all others understand that today the question of whether the world order will become fair, democratic and polycentric is being decided. Or will this small group of countries be able to impose on the international community a neo-colonial division of the world into those who consider themselves “exceptional” and the rest – those who are destined to carry out the will of the “chosen”.
This is the aim of the concept of “rules-based order”, which has been introduced into circulation for more than one year. No one saw, discussed or approved of these “rules”, but they are imposed on the world community. As an example, I will cite the statements of US Treasury Secretary John Yellen from her recent speeches. She said: “The creation of a new Bretton Woods system must begin with the definition of the values of liberal democracy … The U.S. will support supply chains involving only those countries that respect moral values and norms of behavior.” The implication is absolutely clear. Dollars and the “benefits” of the international financial system can only be accessed by those who follow these very American “rules.” Dissenters will be punished. It is clear that not only Russia. Especially since we’re going to give change. Under attack are all those who are able to pursue an independent policy. Take, for example, the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy promoted by Washington, which has an anti-Chinese orientation. At the same time, it pursues the goal of firmly and reliably including India in the US-NATO clip. In the spirit of the Monroe Doctrine, the United States wants to dictate what standards Latin America should live by. The question is, are Americans today able to actually follow the key principle of the UN Charter, which states that “the United Nations are based on the sovereign equality of states”?
The “rules-based order” provides for neither democracy nor pluralism, even within the “collective West.” We are talking about the revival of strict bloc discipline, the unconditional subordination of the “allies” to the dictates of Washington. With the “younger comrades”, the Americans are not particularly ceremonial. The EU is finally losing signs of independence, obediently integrating into the Anglo-Saxon plans to assert the very unipolar world order, sacrificing the quality of life of Europeans, their fundamental interests in favor of the United States. Remember how in December 2013, during a conversation with the US Ambassador to Kiev at the height of the Maidan, Nuland determined the EU’s place in Washington’s plans to reformat Ukraine. This prediction came true in its entirety. The European Union in matters of security is also gradually “merging” with NATO, and nato, in turn, is increasingly louder about its global ambitions. What kind of defensive alliance is there? We are still told and assured that NATO enlargement is a defensive process and does not threaten anyone. The cold war line of defense ran along the Berlin Wall – concrete and imaginary – between the two military blocs and has moved East five times since then. Now they are telling us through NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, British Foreign Secretary Eleanor Troughs and others that NATO has a global responsibility to solve security problems, primarily in the Indo-Pacific region. That is, the next line of defense will be shifted, as I understand, to the South China Sea.
It is suggested that NATO, as the vanguard of the community of democracies, should replace the UN in matters of world politics. At the very least, to subordinate this policy. The management of the global economy should be taken to the “Group of Seven”, where from time to time they will favorably invite extras needed by the West at one time or another.
Western policymakers need to understand that their attempts to isolate our country are doomed. Many experts already admit this. So far, however, quietly, on the sidelines, because it is politically incorrect to say “this” out loud. But it’s happening. Outside the West, there is a growing understanding that the world is becoming increasingly diverse. There’s no hiding from that. More and more countries are striving for real freedom of choice, ways of development and participation in integration projects. An increasing number of states in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are not ready to sacrifice their national interests and pull “chestnuts out of the fire” for their former metropolises. The overwhelming majority of our partners, who have experienced the colonial and racist habits of the West, do not join the anti-Russian sanctions. The West, which, in the words of President Vladimir Putin, has become an “empire of lies”, has long been perceived as a kind of “ideal” of democracy, freedom and prosperity. By predatory actions against other people’s tangible assets, Western countries have finally undermined their reputation as predictable, negotiable partners. Now no one is immune from expropriation, “state piracy”. Therefore, not only Russia, but also a number of other states reduce their dependence on the US dollar, on Western technologies and markets. I am sure that the consistent demonopolization of the global economy is not some distant future.
We have taken note of Fyodor Lukyanov’s article in the Kommersant newspaper (April 29 of this year), in which he rightly claims that the West will neither listen nor hear us. This happened quite a long time ago, long before the start of a special military operation. And “a radical reorientation of assets from the western flank to others is a natural necessity.” I remember that this philosophy was consistently defended by S.A. Karaganov for many years. Today, it is abundantly clear to everyone that “the process has begun.” Not on a whim. We have always been open to equal dialogue. And because of the unacceptable, arrogant behavior of our Western neighbors, who decided, under the dictates of Washington, to “abolish Russia” in their foreign relations.
Further rapprochement with our like-minded people outside the former “golden billion” is an absolutely inevitable process that is mutual in nature. Russian-Chinese relations are the best in their entire history. A special privileged strategic partnership with India, Algeria and Egypt is deepening. Relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf are reaching a new level. The same is happening with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
We are aware that at the current turning point (this adjective “asks for language”) the place of Russia and everyone else in the future architecture of the world order is determined.
We see the task of Russia’s diplomacy in firmly repelling hostile attacks against us, on the one hand. On the other hand, we are persistently, calmly, patiently, but without delaying our work to strengthen our positions in the interests of the country’s progressive internal development and improving the quality of life of Russian citizens. As always, there are a lot of things to do. It is never small, but in the current situation there is a serious restructuring of the thinking of many of our comrades in all spheres of Russia’s life. Moreover, at such stages, meetings under the auspices of swaps are useful, fruitfully generating ideas that are largely used by our foreign policy.
Posted by: karlof1 | May 15 2022 1:04 utc | 204
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