Yesterday the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu.
Why?
The U.S. readout of the call says:
On May 13, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu for the first time since February 18. Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication.
Austin initiated the call and the U.S. is seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine!!!
Are we not told that the Ukraine is winning the war? That it will soon push the Russian forces back over the border? The operation to 'weaken Russia', which Austin had publicly announced two weeks ago, does not seem to go that well.
Told ya so!
Gonzalo Lira thinks that the call points to a soon coming collapse of the Ukrainian forces. Let us hope that this is indeed the case because it seems to be the only chance that the war will end soon.
The Ukraine is losing up to 15,000 men per month to the war. The total Ukrainian casualties, dead and wounded, are likely already at 50,000. The weapons the U.S. and others provide, are not sufficient to sustain the war. The Ukraine has only 3 days reserves of diesel and gasoline left. The main parts of its forces are immobile and are getting surrounded by Russian forces. Their situation is hopeless.
The Pentagon of course knows this all and that is why Austin initiated the call and asked for a ceasefire.
The Russia side will not agree to a ceasefire. At least not unless the 'west' offers to take back some of the 6,400 sanction measures it has initiated against Russia.
There are recently a number of other issues that also go in favor of Russia:
- The economic outlook for Russia is good. It will have a record wheat harvest. Its internal measures to compensate for the results of sanctions are working. Counter sanctions Russia has now initiated against its enemies are starting to become effective.
- Hungary has blocked European sanctions against Russian oil.
- Turkey is slowing down if not prohibiting the entry of Kurd friendly Sweden and Norway into NATO.
- The U.S. weapon deliveries to Ukraine will stop on May 19 unless Congress passes authority for new ones.
- Senator Rand Paul has held up the required bill with the quite reasonable demand to have a inspector general scrutinize where the $40 billion 'for Ukraine' will be going. The Democrats will certainly dislike that.
- U.S. gasoline prices have hit a record high.
- European natural gas prices have also jumped after the Ukraine blocked the flow from Russia through one of the pipelines and while the flow through the Yamal pipeline in Poland has been stopped due to Russian counter sanctions.
- Le Monde has verified and published a video that shows a Ukrainian 'volunteer battalion', led by a known criminal, torturing Russian prisoners of war.
- Russia has published new material about the U.S. military biological 'research' in Ukraine. Other countries will also have questions about these activities.
The British Ministry of Defense claims that Russia lost a significant amount of material and men in an attempt to cross the Seversky Donets river. However the aerial pictures published by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry show that about half of the destroyed vehicles are BMP-1 with the original small one man turret and the stubby 73 mm gun. Russia is said to no longer have these. All its active service BMP-1 are said to have been upgraded and now have different turrets with 30 mm machine cannons with longer rifles. There must have been a larger battle over the crossing with probably both sides taking heavy losses. Moreover the fighting is now on the western side of the river. The Russian forces thus must have crossed the river in significant numbers.
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