Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 25, 2022

Ukraine - Railway Hits, U.S. War Aims, Ops Report

Updated below at 17:45 UTC

Last Thursday the first destruction of bridges along Ukrainian railway routes in eastern Ukraine took place. These were important for Ukraine's war effort and especially for the resupplies flowing from west towards the eastern front:

The Ukrainian military, like Russia's, depends on railways for all long distance mass supplies as both have relatively few logistic trucks.

The U.S. and others have said they would give the Ukraine dozens of 155mm towed artillery guns plus tens of thousands of shells with them. The U.S. guns come with one truck each to tow the gun.

That is all manageable so far but now let's look at the logistics (especially without railways). ...

I have estimated that the Ukraine does not have enough trucks to replace railway logistics and those logistics are now falling apart:

The Eurasianist @Russ_Warrior - 10:09 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
The Russian Armed Forces hit 7 substations in western #Ukraine:
_ Zdolbunov (trains stopped in Dubno area, delay of the trains to Kovel), _ Kazatin-2, _ Krasnoye, _ Podolskaya, _ Sknilov, _ Slavuta (decommissioning of the entire area of Zdolbunov and Slavuta stations), _ Fastov

bigger

The attacks have been confirmed:

Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM - 12:07 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
Ukraine state railway head Oleksandr Kamyshin on Telegram: “Russian troops continue to systematically destroy railway infrastructure. This morning, within an hour, 5 railway stations in central and western Ukraine came under fire.” 19 trains delayed; unknown number of injuries.

The 'substations' Russia destroyed are the electric ones which supply the electrified long range train routes.

Woofers @NotWoofers - 12:02 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
Electrical substation in Krasne, near Lviv was hit by a Russian missile earlier today. Much damage was caused and a large fire was started.
Picture

The substations transform higher voltage to whatever the rail network needs. Without the substations, which are not easy to replace, most of Ukraine's locomotives will not run.

Some traffic will continue by using diesel locomotives. However, those are relatively rare as the Wikipedia entry for Ukrainian railways explains:

Number of locomotives – 1,944 (electric - 1,627, diesel - 301)

Diesel locomotives are slower than electrified ones. They also need a lot of diesel which has become rare in Ukraine and must be imported  by rail(!) from Slovenia.

Supplying additional diesel locomotives from other countries in eastern Europe will not be possible. The Ukraine has, like Russia, wide gauge tracks of 1,524 mm (5 ft). Most other European countries use a normal gauge of 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in).

Meanwhile the U.S. announced a vague new aim for its proxy war against Russia:

Austin was in Poland, answering questions from reporters after a brief trip Sunday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv, where the pair met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials.

The defense secretary was asked how he defined “America’s goals for success” in Ukraine. He first said Washington wants to see “Ukraine remain a sovereign country, a democratic country, able to protect its sovereign territory.”

Then, he said, the United States hopes Russia will be “weakened” by the war. “It has already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly, and we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability,” Austin said.
...
Speaking in a hangar in Poland filled with crates of humanitarian aid, including diapers, destined for Ukraine, the top Biden administration officials announced more than $700 million in new military aid to Ukraine and other countries, and said the United States intends to resume diplomatic operations in Ukraine this week.

All the diapers, weapons and munitions the U.S. and other countries supply to Ukraine will now mostly be stuck in west Ukraine where they will rot until some clever Ukrainian oligarch manages to sell them off to some third country.

The fall out from the railway attacks will also hit civilian supplies in Ukraine. It will hinder civilian passenger traffic especially for people who have fled towards the west and now have less transport available to return home.

Since the war started Russia has intentionally avoided to hit civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Electricity and communication networks as well as water supplies have all stayed intact. (In recent U.S. wars those were the first things it destroyed.) The attacks on the Ukrainian railway became only necessary after the U.S. and others provided more and more war materials to the Ukraine. Russia will not allow its troops to come under fire from those newly delivered weapons.

Despite warnings from Russia to Ukraine to not attack on Russian ground Ukrainian sabotage groups seem to have some success with destroying Russian infrastructure:

IWN @A7_Mirza - 14:22 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
#Russia #Ukraine
Large fire in #Druzhba oil depot in Russia's #Bryansk. Russia said it would investigate the cause of a large fire that erupted in the early hours of the morning at an oil storage facility in the city of Bryansk 154 km northeast of the border with Ukraine.
Pictures

This is the second large oil storage facility that in recent weeks suffered from such an accident or potential attack. However it is unlikely that this will hinder any Russian operation. Unlike Ukraine Russia has many refineries, very significant reserves and it can move large amounts of diesel by train throughout its country.

Next to its attacks on the Ukraine's traffic infrastructure to impede 'western' resupplies the Russian military continues to soften up the Ukrainian defense lines along the Donbas front. From this mornings 'clobber list' as published by the Russian Defense Ministry:

High-precision sea- and air-based long-range weapons on the northern outskirts of Kremenchuk destroyed fuel production facilities of an oil refinery, as well as storage facilities for oil products to supply military equipment of Ukrainian troops.

During the night, 6 enemy assets were hit by high-precision air-based missiles. Among them: 3 strong points and areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment, as well as 3 ammunition depots in Barvenkovo and Novaya Dmitrovka in Kharkov Region.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 56 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 2 command posts and 53 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 fuel storage facility near Novaya Dmitrovka.
...
Missile troops carried out 19 strikes during the night. Destroyed: 4 command posts of the nationalists, including the 81st Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade, and three ammunition depots. 21 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration were hit.
...
Artillery units carried out 967 fire missions during the day. Destroyed: 33 command posts, 929 strong points, areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 5 missile and artillery weapons and ammunition depots.

Russian air defence means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Mezhurino, Balakleya, Borodoyarkoe, Nevskoe in Kharkov Region and Vysokoe and Chernobaevka in Kherson Region.

In addition, Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile and cannon system shot down 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U missile and 18 rockets of a multiple-launch rocket system over Chernobaeka.

Since phase two of the war started last week there have been no larger battles. What we have seen so far from the Russian side does not amount to more than armored reconnaissance.

The nearly 1,000 artillery missions in the last 24 hours and on the days before speak of intense preparations for upcoming attacks by Russian mechanized forces. Over all artillery will do the most damage to the Ukrainian troops. In World War II and other modern mechanized wars some 65% of all casualties were caused by artillery strikes. The recent rate on the Ukrainian side will likely be higher.

I have said several weeks ago that the Ukraine has not chance to win in this war. It is losing more and more people and its economy has nearly ceased to exist.

But the U.S. wants to 'weaken' Russia by fighting it to the last Ukrainian. Ukraine's president Zelensky is obviously willing to go with that program. He should instead agree to Russia's reasonable peace conditions. He is destroying the Ukraine by not doing that. 

Update 17:45 UTC

A Politico piece about the situation in Ukraine confirms my above take:

Heavy weaponry pours into Ukraine as commanders become more desperate

Western countries are rushing heavy weaponry to Ukraine as the war enters what promises to be a deadly, and potentially protracted, new phase.

Those deliveries are coming amid increasingly desperate pleas from Ukrainian battlefield commanders as they endure withering Russian artillery and rocket fire that could last weeks or months.

Here is a realistic view of how the war feels on the ground:

Eighty miles north of [Mariupol], First Lt. Ivan Skuratovsky, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade, told POLITICO that help needs to come immediately.

“The situation is very bad, [Russian forces] are using scorched- earth tactics,” the 31-year-old married father of two said via text. “They simply destroy everything with artillery, shelling day and night,” he said via text.

He fears that if reinforcements in the form of manpower and heavy weaponry — particularly air support — don’t arrive in the next few days, his troops could find themselves in the same position as those in Mariupol.

Skuratovsky described his soldiers’ situation as “very desperate.”

“I don’t know how much strength we will have,” he said, adding that the troops under his command around the city of Avdiivka, near Donetsk, have gone without rest since the start of the war. At least 13 of them have been wounded in recent weeks, he said, and they are running dangerously low on ammunition, reduced to rationing bullets.

The day before, he told POLITICO his soldiers were being bombarded with Russian howitzers, mortars and multiple-launch rocket systems “at the same time.” Just hours earlier, he said, they had been attacked by two Su-25 warplanes, “and our day became hell.”

Skuratovsky had a message for the United States and other NATO countries: “I would like to tell them that grenade launchers are good, but against airstrikes and heavy artillery we will not be able to hold out for long. People can no longer endure daily bombardments. We need air support now. We need drones.”

I feel b´very sorry for these soldiers and curse their leaders who pushed them into this.

Alastair Crooke warns that the 'west' might escalate when it finally recognizes that its proxy war against Russia is lost.

The conviction that the European liberal vision faces humiliation and disdain, were Putin to ‘win’, has taken hold. And in the Obama-Clinton-Deep State nexus, it is unimaginable that Putin and Russia still regarded as the author of Russiagate for many Americans, might prevail.

The logic to this conundrum is inexorable – Escalation.

For Biden, whose approval ratings continue to tank, disaster looms in the November mid-terms.
...
The only possible path out from this approaching cataclysm would be for Biden to pull a rabbit from the Ukraine ‘hat’ (one that, at the very least, would distract from soaring inflation). The Neo-cons and the Deep State (but not the Pentagon) are all for it.

...

I hope that Biden is still competent enough to recognize that any escalation will lead to a much larger war and, in the end, to a much bigger defeat of 'western' forces than the one that will come in Ukraine.

Posted by b on April 25, 2022 at 15:28 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page | next page »

fyi

I would have said, go for it, Russia!
& can we move on the new Multi-polar World Order in short order, please oh please - so the US can be weakened so that it can never ever attack or invade another sovereign nation again


Newsweek @Newsweek
https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1518589855097401345
U.S. wants Russia "weakened" so it can never invade again


Wyatt Reed @wyattreed13
https://twitter.com/wyattreed13/status/1518628384191909888

Imagine the reaction if Russia said this after the US orchestrated invasions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia, Somalia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Grenada, Panama, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Cuba

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 26 2022 3:28 utc | 201

The US Cavalry used single shot breechloading Springfields and Sharps rifles during the Indian wars. Fetterman's command was still carrying muzzle loaders.

Posted by: John | Apr 26 2022 3:28 utc | 202

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 26 2022 3:13 utc | 196
"Link?"

I can't remember which of his numerous interviews he has claimed this in, but there are several. And he was emphatic about it, so take it as given that he believes that.

His opinion was very straight forward: Finland shares a border with Russia. Sweden does not. NATO strategic weapons in Finland are minutes away from important Russian cities, exactly the same as Ukraine. Russia simply won't allow it. That was his rationale.

Now personally, I think what Russia will do is not necessarily invade Finland - but will put strategic weapons right next to Finland, just as I think Russia will put strategic weapons in Ukraine and Belarus. I don't believe that Russia intends to start a war with NATO, but merely counter NATO in the manner Russia has said it will do: "if you put weapons 5 minutes from us, we will do the same to you."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 3:31 utc | 203

re: uncle tungsten | Apr 26 2022 3:13 utc | 196

Scott Ritter is adamant that Russia will go to war and destroy Finland if it joins NATO. He makes these comments at 13:45 into this April 15 interview by Zeinab Ghasemi

Paul Craig Roberts has also pointed to this danger in a recent essay

Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 26 2022 3:33 utc | 204

I also wonder about some of the other "non-negotiable" articles in the two Draft Treaties that Russia presented to the US and NATO last December. In particular, the two Aegis Ashore missile bases in Romania and Poland. Will Russia also use "military-technical means" to eliminate them?

Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 26 2022 3:34 utc | 205

Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO


Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 26 2022 3:36 utc | 206

CarlD | Apr 26 2022 3:13 utc | 195

Not being a big gun, I have closely watched Turkey and the Middle East.

Russia has reacted to the latest move by Erdogan is symbolic as he has come under extreme US political pressure beyond the already existing economic sanctions.

Jerusalem and Al Aqsa is already creating the explosive sphere with Bennett in political trouble awaiting a no-confidence vote.

OPEC+ is not willing to follow US and NATO sanctions on Russia.

UK media: Saudis’ Biden snub suggests crown prince still banking on Trump’s return - is total nonsense analysis, feud goes much deeper.

Latest from the Kremlin ...

Turkey inches up pressure on Moscow | Tass |

Key Role East-West Relations for NATO Member Turkey by Oui Sat Mar 19th, 2022

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 3:41 utc | 207

How do you interpret the belligerence of à almost all of US military, including people like Col. Patrick Lang? Hé, as a defeated Vietnam Bet, seemed to have gained some insight and was against the Iraq war.

Now he and his colleagues are pushing for war against a nuclear foe and seem to live in cloud cuckoo land.
Is there a much simpler explanation for US elites’ stance in regards to international relations. The ruling class has ossified and literally is becoming demented, just because of advanced age. They are living longer and still don’t want to let go of the reign.

Am old acquaintance from “Sic Semper Tyrannis

Posted by: Amir | Apr 26 2022 3:41 utc | 208

uncle tungsten | Apr 26 2022 3:13 utc | 196

Everyone needs to be take on their merits. Ritter always advertises he is an absolutely patriotic American. he does tend to take some US media propaganda in- but he was totally fucked over because he stood for what he believed re Iraq WMD. A little bit of chaff still there but a lot of grain. Honesty goes a long way... until I think of assange. That thing live to fight another day or stand your ground. I guess both are to be respected.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 3:42 utc | 209

I have a question (sorry, not directly related to SMO) for competent political economists and/or thinking people here:
What is the difference between the Baltic states and Ukraine in their development after breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991? The Baltics and Ukraine were relatively ‘well to do’ parts of the SU, and gradually they became poor to the point of mass emigration. In case of Ukraine one could understand, the looting on grand scale of the state properties (factories, resources) by criminals who became oligarchs. The corruption in Ukraine became horrendous. But what happened to the Baltics? I never heard of oligarchs or corruption in those countries, so that excuse is not valid, and in addition they became proud members of the EU and NATO. And yet, they became poor and people were emigrating. So, what were the differences leading to the similar depopulation trends in Ukraine and the Baltics and increase in poverty?
Somehow the capitalism “worked” better in Poland and Hungary than in the former Soviet Republics. One would expect that the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) would be more like Poland or Hungary, and yet it did not happen.

Posted by: fanto | Apr 26 2022 3:43 utc | 210

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 26 2022 0:41 utc | 171

I think that particular special relationship is fraying, what the behind the scenes negotiations were precisely I don't know, but there is obviously some resistance to Israeli demands in the US power structure, or the treaty would never have been entered into in the first place. they could call it something else, but if I were Iran I would never believe US assurances again.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 26 2022 3:52 utc | 211

The population of the Baltic states simply faded away...dispersed to the sewers and whore houses of yurp. There was never wealth enough for an oligarchy class...but Nazis could march in the streets. Such is life.

Posted by: Norb | Apr 26 2022 3:52 utc | 212

I think the CIA is burning some of its assets in the propaganda war, and Lang was one of them. or else they had blackmail material they were holding for a long time, and used it.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 26 2022 3:57 utc | 213

@ 205
from the "Russia warns" link
"Without speaking to any countries in particular, we would not be concerned that the expansion of a defensive alliance would do anything other than promote stability on the European continent," Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a briefing.
That stupid remark makes my day. Meanwhile, the bigger they are the harder they fall.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 4:01 utc | 214

@209 Fanta

Same thing as happened to Ukraine, the post-Soviet oligarchs looted the place with the help of the west.

Capitalism is a kind of pyramid scheme, the further up you are, the more you benefit. Poland is higher up than the Baltic States and therefore gets a bigger cut. Those countries at the bottom of the pyramid are used strictly for cheap labor and resources. Their industries get cannibalized and either scrapped to take pressure off the industries of those countries further up, or if the industry has high profit potential, sold off for pennies on the dollar. Those pennies are then pocketed by the local oligarchs.

Theda Skocpol's "State's and Social Rwvolutions" gives an interesting macro-view of the process.

Posted by: Haassaan | Apr 26 2022 4:12 utc | 215

@ fanto | Apr 26 2022 3:43 utc | 209

I have met a considerable number of emigres from Lithuania and a few from Latvia. I got the general impression that they were corruption riddled, poverty stricken places. Many of them were willing to admit that life had actually gotten worse after the fall of the Soviet Union but most of them still blamed the Russians for all their current woes. I reckon it is safe to say that Hitler is generally more fondly remembered in the Baltic states than Stalin, indeed one of the Lithuanians bore the middle name Adolf (because his father was a fan)
Most of them were very nice people to be fair to them, both intelligent and friendly but they were definitely brought up with a different take on history. I think it is fair to say the Baltic states and Ukraine have a lot in common.

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 26 2022 4:19 utc | 216

You meet any racist/supremacy type and if you are not on their hit list, they are nice people.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 4:24 utc | 217

Below is a Xinhuanet posting showing that China is coming out more strongly in support of Russia


BEIJING, April 25 (Xinhua) -- The United States should remember that the idea of "indivisible security" is a principle endorsed by the international community, including the U.S. side, and is not promoted by Russia alone, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Monday.

Spokesperson Wang Wenbin made the comment following recent claims by a U.S. State Department spokesperson that China continues to "parrot" some of Russia's security ideas amid the war in Ukraine, including the Kremlin's concept of "indivisible security."

"China rejects such groundless accusations by the U.S. that disregard the facts," Wang told a regular news briefing.

"The U.S. side should address its own ignorance and realize that indivisible security is not just a Russian concept, but an important principle widely recognized and accepted by NATO members including the U.S., European countries and the rest of the international community," Wang said.

This principle has been enshrined in such important documents as the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, the 1990 Charter of Paris for a New Europe, the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation in 1997, and the Charter for European Security adopted in 1999, he said, adding that the United States is a signatory or party to these documents.

Wang said that forgetting history would be the greatest betrayal and denying consensus would have grave consequences.

"This kind of perfidious practice by the United States is typical of unilateralism and historical revisionism, and it is the root cause of the current European security crisis," he said.

Ukraine is proxy for a bigger conflict

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 4:40 utc | 218

How in God's name can any US politician, especially psychopathic Biden with added dementia, possibly believe that escalating to a nuke war, would bring up desperately sagging approval ratings?
Do the Ukronazis realize what they are screaming for when they scream for a no fly zone?
Zelensky is a disgusting Zionist clown
These politicians are extremely dangerous to everyone

Posted by: Kay | Apr 26 2022 4:48 utc | 219

@202 Richard Steven Hack

The Finnish leadership is very dumb. If they allow Nato nukes on territory (which they can/will in a few years), clearly state a couple of nuke Iskanders in Leningrad oblast are pointing at Helsinki or other cities will keep the lid on provocation. In fact this applies to every provoking border Nato state already.

Although some claim it to be better off in terms of energy than some central European states, as things stand, it actually isn't since it's exporting its own electricity to cover up German and others energy policy mistakes. This raises domestic prices faster than elsewhere. There are limits for hydro power in terms of locations, which are closed to utilized by now. Wind power is not really scalable and requires ridiculous amounts of land, and building up storage solutions is very expensive. Yes, Russian oil and gas does matter regardless of what they try to tell you.

Finland has some mineral resources claimed strategically important for the EU, but these are not enough for EU consumption at all, and they are basically robbed by foreign owned companies through lax mining laws.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2022 5:24 utc | 220

The War Party is letting the Kiev military units in Donbass whither and die. The War Party concluded these units are already lost.

Meanwhile, the War Party is building a massive Army in Poland and Western Ukraine for a Spring counter offensive. This Army will be made up of NATO, Ukie’s, Mercs, and others. This ~350,000 Army will take 6-9 months to equip, train, and deploy.

Listen closely towar party leadership, they are prepping their populations for the Spring Counter Offensive.,

Posted by: Exile | Apr 26 2022 5:26 utc | 221

Should've also mentioned that Finnish cities do not have actual nuclear bunkers unlike Russian cities, if they think they can threaten Russia with nato nukes. Once it starts, a lot of people are gone but those without working protection are gone forever.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2022 5:28 utc | 222

"Do the Ukronazis realize what they are screaming for when they scream for a no fly zone?" Posted by: Kay | Apr 26 2022 4:48 utc | 218

Samson Option https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

Jewish reporter Ari Shavit writes of Israel's nuclear strategy: "Concerning anything and everything nuclear, Israel would be much, much more cautious than the United States and NATO. Concerning anything and everything nuclear, Israel would be the responsible adult of the international community. It would well understand the formidable nature of the demon and keep it locked in the basement".[31]

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 26 2022 5:31 utc | 223

@220 Exile

Would you have sources/"connect the dots" for this army building in Poland or 350k figure? Asking bc genuinely interested, thanks.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2022 5:32 utc | 224

Russian Scientists Create All-Weather Solar Cells https://sputniknews.com/20220425/russian-scientists-create-all-weather-solar-cells-1095032199.html

We have demonstrated the formation of perovskite layers by chemical vapour deposition (CVD) in a one-step process. The use of the standard method in combination with mechanochemical synthesis will scale it up to an industrial level. Furthermore, we have demonstrated and explained the high stability and luminescent properties of inorganic perovskites and we particularly distinguish CsPb2Br5 for its best optical properties at all technological stages”, said Arthur Ishteev, a researcher at NUST MISIS’ Laboratory of Advanced Solar Energy.

Perovskite - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perovskite_(structure)

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 26 2022 5:36 utc | 225


Posted by: circumspect | Apr 26 2022 2:02 utc | 186


In West of Ukraine travelling has been possible during the war.
Blinken and Austin could have gone there on Sunday by train normally, and back on Monday ,with little delayed timetable.

From "Periscope Notebook" -Monday
"Passenger trains started running because emergency diesel locomotives were delivered to them within 2-4 hours - no longer on the schedule, but as needed. In general, after such a “rocket shake-up”, the turnover of echelons along the western part of the UZ network will slow down by 3-4 times for at least a week, and many freight trains will have to be broken into parts due to the impossibility of electric traction."

In Russia people are more and more frustrated, when the whole traffic and communication infrastructure of western Ukraine has been left untouched to this day.

Western military aid , including heavy arms, are coming all the time to Donbass.

From " Rybar" - Sunday 22:25 hour
"Weapons are transferred to Kharkov by rail.
Currently delivered to the city:
100 UAVs of the "kamikaze" type with target recognition and homing systems
30 UAV operators after passing the necessary training;
an unknown number of Pion self-propelled guns.
The delivery of self-propelled guns "Zuzana-2" is expected.
Unloading was carried out at the New Bavaria railway station."

Posted by: ka | Apr 26 2022 5:45 utc | 226

@Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 3:25 utc | 199

Assange fought the law and law has won.
Assange fought crime and so far crime has won.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2022 5:48 utc | 227

@ unimperator | Apr 26 2022 5:24 utc |219

Re: "If they allow Nato nukes on territory (which they can/will in a few years), ..."

I can't see that happening unless either (a) Russia ceases to exist; or (b) the said 'nukes' are Russian and pointing across the Atlantic.

My guess for the longer-term post-Ukraine drama season is "status quo" or (b) in the probability ratio of 80:20 respectively. A Nato-Sweden perhaps but Finland is neutral land in the strategic arc through Belarus and declawed Ukraine to the Black Sea coast.

Posted by: imo | Apr 26 2022 5:50 utc | 228

Re: All Weather Solar
Perovskite - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perovskite_(structure)
Posted by: Laurence | Apr 26 2022 5:36 utc | 224

Just awesome! Thanks for the good news.
I saw that China is also working on Hydrogen energy as well as solar and more.
Great countries that have better thing to so than create war and chaos.

Posted by: K | Apr 26 2022 5:56 utc | 229

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2022 5:28 utc | 221

Re bunkers, I just watched a video today by Canadian Prepper, that prepper guy I follow on Youtube. He quoted some article or other that said Finland has more fallout shelters, bunkers, etc. than they have population, at least in some cities. Apparently every building over a certain size has to have a shelter in it. I don't know if that's true or not. Supposedly some of the bunkers are intended to survive at least nearby nuclear strikes, sort of like Switzerland.

Posted by: imo | Apr 26 2022 5:50 utc | 227

Well, they want to join NATO. Stupid or not, that seems to be the plan. And once in NATO, they'll do what NATO says, most likely, or they'll be put under pressure by the NATO states. And NATO will definitely want strategic weapons next to Russia. So as you say, Russia is going to have to do something about it, which I think means missiles next door or if one believes Scott Ritter, a Russian invasion.

Posted by: Exile | Apr 26 2022 5:26 utc | 220

Agree with unimperator. Got links for that? Personally I think it's quite likely, if my theory that the US wants to sacrifice NATO in a war with Russia is correct. It might also make sense as to why the bulk of the remaining Ukrainian army hasn't done anything to move east (other than the fact that they'd get creamed from the air if they did) - maybe they're holding the remaining 100,000 or so Ukies in reserve waiting for reinforcements from Poland. There's been a lot of talk about Poland possibly trying a "humanitarian intervention" in western Ukraine, as well as an alleged "CIA mercenary army" (which so far has been a complete bust.)

In any event, it will fail massively. The only question then is if the US eggs NATO into an Article 5 situation should any of that fighting drift over the border into Poland, which it might very well.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 6:10 utc | 230

I can't believe all the barflys coming here and writing about how normal it might seem to have Eurasia crisscrossed with opposing nukes putting all within 5-10 minutes from extinction.

Russia has made it very clear that they do not want to live in a world like that and will push for an existential ending to the geo-political bullying of the West (God of Mammon cult)

Countries without their heads up their ass will develop or redevelop forms of public banking within/under a new value based and managed Reserve Currency.....for some period of time the future will be very unevenly distributed.....

Any who think this military activity will be protracted I think are wrong because we are operating with only a ghost of a proxy keeping this from being a direct MAD confrontation and this geo-political structure is very unstable......barbarism/extinction or "socialism" is the question on the table and the China/Russia axis are marching the world in an alternative direction than the God of Mammon West.

So, the question remains if the barbarism directed by the God of Mammon cult will trigger extinction instead of capitulation to a multipolar world?????

If the West does not get its extinction war then it will be forced to capitulate and I continue to see hopeful signs of the structure of what that might look like in the China/Russia axis actions and words karlof1 keeps providing to us.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 6:12 utc | 231

Pat Lang is CIA … many moons ago he authored articles for BooMan Tribune until he derailed badly. Had a run-in with his bullshit at the time.

Pat Lang’s diary is about the Iranian president and the holocaust reference, my diary is about the American rhetoric on foreign policy and warmongering in the media versus Iran.

NYT & Patrick Lang Beating the War Drums ¶ Exacerbates Fear of Iran | Jan 18th 2006 |

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 6:13 utc | 232

Perimetr #203

Thank you. I appreciated the opportunity to consider the whole of his logic and assessment.

So considering that and Peter AU1 contribution above I can see a robust first response will emerge promptly along the Finn border region short of an invasion.

The whole of Europe will have the next year to pull its trigger finger out and consider the December 2021 treaties proposed by Russia. I imagine many are getting more familiar with those proposals right now.

That does not deter me from seeing Georgia and Poland as next in line to feel the bears hot breath as that is where the CBW labs are.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 26 2022 6:15 utc | 233

The second month of the war

Quite critical assessment, not like Martyanov or The Saker.
The scarcity of modern reconnaissance gear is mentioned.
On combat level there is said to be too little, for example, thermal sights and drones.

From "Kramnik's cat and cat" ( Telegram-@kramnikcat)
(machine translation)

"The second month of the war has passed, it's time to continue our couch analysis.
All the advantages and disadvantages from the previous post are in place and have not gone away. You can also additionally crunch another batch of panzerwafers on the same topic axis tutochki .
What can be said now?
Now the main issue is the balance of military expediency and political decisions. Military expediency dictated to make the Ukrainian transport infrastructurethe main goal right from the first day, political decisions made on the basis of some other motivations, probably justified, but unknown to us, have led to the fact that this infrastructure is becoming a goal only now, gradually and not all. And this preservation of the infrastructure significantly supports the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to wage war.
Even more important is the efficient state of the transport infrastructure, given the growing supply of Western-made weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, and the process of training Ukrainian specialists in the use of Western heavy weapons. Can these supplies and this training play a significant role in combat operations and prevent the RF Armed Forces from fulfilling their tasks?
If the Ukrainian transport infrastructure is exposed to the same regime as before, they can, of course.
If we talk about critically important problems, then these are primarily the following:

- The enemy has numerous combat-ready artillery, which he actively uses when engaging in artillery duels. It can become dangerous, given the announced deliveries from NATO countries of artillery systems, in the future, both OTRK, and already underway - artillery radars.

- It is illogical from a military point of view to preserve the transport capabilities of the enemy, which can be sharply reduced, given the dominance of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the air and the presence of a large number of operational-tactical missiles of various types.

- The lack of modern reconnaissance aircraft and drones in the tactical level among the Russian troops, which greatly complicates the fight against this artillery and no less greatly complicates the isolation of the battlefield (the disadvantage was emphasized earlier, has not gone away, in the coming months and years - will not go away, it should be taken into account ).

- The unpreparedness of a number of commanders and staffs at different levels for the conditions of a particular conflict, turning into problems where they might not have been.

- The almost complete absence on the battlefield (as well as in the troops in general), with rare exceptions, of modern Russian armored vehicles, which does not affect losses in the best way.

Separately, it is worth dwelling on the problems of Russian intelligence at the operational-strategic level. It exists, it works, which makes it possible to periodically achieve significant results in the form of the destruction of training bases for foreign mercenaries, or certain large types of weapons, such as the deployed Slovak S-300s. However, given the same lack of unmanned aerial vehicles, “large” reconnaissance aircraft, reconnaissance satellites and a number of other “iron” systems, reconnaissance cannot always work efficiently enough and, most importantly, quickly enough. In combination with the so far intact transport infrastructure (yes, it again) and the enemy’s ability to mask the transfer of various military cargo, this greatly complicates the life of our troops on the battlefield (and will complicate in the future),

However, the dominance of the Russian Air Force in the air and the superiority of Russia in long-range systems in general remains a critical factor in allowing the Russian army to choose the time and place of strikes, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to defend themselves. At the same time, the need to mask Ukrainian military shipments, although it makes it possible to secure a significant part of them from the impact of Russian troops, nevertheless does not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to receive supplies to the right extent. Whether these advantages will be enough for the success of the Russian operation as a whole depends on how they are disposed of - and primarily politically."

Posted by: ka | Apr 26 2022 6:18 utc | 234

Old Warriors Never Die Or Fade Away

I’ve written often about extreme war hawk General Breedlove — https://progresspond.com/page/2/?s=Breedlove — running circles around European leaders in NATO meetings and setting aggressive policy contra Putin and Russia.

Former NATO Commander Says Western Fears Of Nuclear War Are Preventing A Proper Response To Putin | RFERL - Apr 7, 2022 |

https://www.rferl.org/a/breedlove-nuclear-fears-west-deterred/31791020.html

A former top NATO commander has said Western fears "about nuclear weapons and World War III" have left it "fully deterred" and Vladimir Putin "completely undeterred" as the Russian leader pursues his increasingly brutal invasion of Ukraine.

"We have ceded the initiative to the enemy," Philip Breedlove told RFE/RL's Georgian Service in a recent interview.

Breedlove is a retired four-star U.S. Air Force general who led U.S. forces in Europe and served as NATO's supreme allied commander from 2013 to 2016.

Yesterday’s reply by FM Sergei Lavrov was likely to this article by warmonger General Breedlove … a complete a$$hole doing great damage to European politics at the time.

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 6:26 utc | 235

"Russia has made it very clear that they do not want to live in a world like that and will push for an existential ending to the geo-political bullying of the West (God of Mammon cult)"
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 6:12 utc | 230

I don't think this is what Russia is actually saying. From listening to Putin and lavrov, I think they are voicing the highest possible level of warning and threat to the west. And I don't think they are bluffing, but neither to do assume they will rush into or intend random destruction.

Re my previous question on asymmetrical nuclear response.
I'll ask again, why wouldn't Russia use non nuclear (or nuclear) warheads on its hypersonic missiles so destruction can be targeted and not at the level of scorched earth like the atom bomb?

I think the threat of actual nuclear holocaust is only coming fro the west and I think we should be careful not to make a false equivalence of intentions here. Not that I'm saying you intended to do this, its just what came to mind reading your post.

Posted by: K | Apr 26 2022 6:38 utc | 236

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 6:26 utc | 234

Unfortunately USA is rather like Argentina pre-Falklands War with a Junta where the bourgeois landless could make careers and get lucrative "business" jobs whilst being Members of the Military Country Club Culture - like Breedlove.

It is a good life, secure income, lots of events and dinners and away-days and "retreats" with a full social life. It is how the US GDP was diverted from proper medical care or education or housing or social protection to favour a gilded elite of contractors and their hirelings.

The problem for Breedlove is that he has not seen any of his cities in Mainland USA bombed or destroyed. Americans have been even more successful than the British in fighting their conflicts in someone else's back yard.

This time it may take destruction of Los Angeles and Chicago to help Americans gaze at their navels and wonder how it happened. They love to swagger around but are genuinely hurt when Taliban kick them out.

So a nuclear war looks inevitable but if Europeans had sense they would re-direct it towards North America and find common ground with their angry neighbour. This is really the identity crisis afflicting the USA now they have a senile old fool succeeding a blowhard ignoramus as President and an industrial base that is simply unable to supply the goods Americans want to buy.

USA is going through a version of what Ukraine has experienced since 1990. - from being the most prosperous SSR with technological industry to being looted by oligarchs who go deep into property (where US rules are very lax on source of funds checks) and hollow out the societies in which they parasitically nest..........and USA is well on the way to being a Ukraine II

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 6:46 utc | 237

Sweden Receives Security Guarantees From West as Country Decides on Joining NATO - Reports
10 hours ago https://sputniknews.com/20220425/sweden-receives-security-guarantees-from-west-as-country-decides-on-joining-nato---reports-1095050864.html

🤣` ...

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 26 2022 6:53 utc | 238

@ K | Apr 26 2022 6:38 utc | 235 who read my comment as saying both sides were threatening nuclear holocaust and I am sorry if that is what your interpretation was.

I wrote about the God of Mammon bully and the China/Russia axis marching a different direction as well as writing about the existential military challenge to empire which Russia is providing.....and along with that challenge comes red lines with consequences which could lead to nuclear holocaust.

From a current Reuters posting


April 26 (Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Monday not to underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine and said he viewed NATO as being "in essence" engaged in a proxy war with Russia by supplying Kyiv with weaponry.

We are living in very interesting times and I continue to think many don't understand how high the stakes are.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 6:54 utc | 239

This Army will be made up of NATO, Ukie’s, Mercs, and others. This ~350,000 Army will take 6-9 months to equip, train, and deploy.

Listen closely towar party leadership, they are prepping their populations for the Spring Counter Offensive.,

Posted by: Exile | Apr 26 2022 5:26 utc | 220

NATO = USA nothing more so stop writing as if NATO has troops of its own.
If you think Poland can train 350,000 troops in just 9 months to wage a Continental War you are better of moving to Kiev to smoke delusion drugs.

Poland has ordered Abrams tanks from USA because it gets easy credit which it cannot repay and politicians get kickbacks. It is a country with a mouth bigger than its brain and was regarded as the least effective Warsaw Pact nation. Kaczynski is a weird man approaching the end who wants to fulfil his bizarre dream but will end up like Colonel Josef Beck simply destroying his country which has never been a successful democracy .........ever. It was a dictatorship 1926-1990.

So tell us about ghost armies and Polish Knights armed with German swords and cheered on by English officers - let's pretend its is the Miracle on the Vistula all over again - though that general was Weygand who failed in 1940.

Poland thinks IT will be the premier power in Intermarium between Baltic and Black Sea - it is the old dream. It was Pilsudski's Dream and Kaczynski thinks he will realise it so long as he can sucker another Anglo-Saxon Power to commit seppuku for Poland. Poland dreams of challenging Germany as the major European nation

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 6:56 utc | 240

Two Explosions Rock Mayak Settlement in Transnistria, Interior Ministry Says 2 minutes ago https://sputniknews.com/20220426/two-explosions-rock-mayak-settlement-in-transnistria-interior-ministry-says-1095058594.html

As a result of the two explosions in Mayak village, the two most powerful antennae of the radio centre have been disabled.

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 26 2022 6:57 utc | 241

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 6:12 utc | 230
"Russia has made it very clear that they do not want to live in a world like that and will push for an existential ending to the geo-political bullying of the West (God of Mammon cult)"

Yes, but I think they want to do it without starting WWIII. The question is: how?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 6:58 utc | 242

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 6:56 utc | 239

Again, you're missing the point. No one is saying Poland can pull this off.

What matters is that Poland is a NATO state. Like I've been saying, if the US wants to sacrifice NATO in a war with Russia, Poland is the prime candidate to start it. That is the point at issue, not whether any of the Polish elites pipe dreams are possible.

I don't know why people can't see past the simple statement of a fact and look at it in context. They always jump in and say, "Well, that can't happen because this..." Well, Afghanistan was never going to be a success. They did it. Iraq was never going to be a success. They did it. Ukraine was never going to be a success. They did it. How many more times do they have to "do it" before people get it?

The ruling elites, and the neocons, and the CIA DO NOT LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 7:06 utc | 243

@fanto | Apr 26 2022 3:43 utc | 209
Not that the baltics had or have no oligarchs, but they had to share the loot with EU corporations due to early accession to EU and Eurozone. Lithuania, as the last of the baltic nazi shitholes, joined the euro start of 2015. That led to massive price increases and forced emigration. The harsh discrimination of the large russian speaking communities drove hundred thousands to Russia and Belarus, while better educated ones, as well as prostitutes, settled in the EU.

Posted by: aquadraht | Apr 26 2022 7:09 utc | 244

humanitarian aid, including diapers, destined for Ukraine, the top Biden administration officials announced more than $700 million in new military aid

Most critical are the diapers. The VSU gentlemen have been shitting in their pants non-stop since the start of the warm-up to Phase 2.

All the diapers, weapons and munitions the U.S. and other countries supply to Ukraine will now mostly be stuck in west Ukraine where they will rot until some clever Ukrainian oligarch manages to sell them off to some third country.

No, no, no! The only mission-critical items are the diapers. A special 100 billion dollar ultra-secret CIA mission has been working day and night to find ways to get these diapers to where they are needed most - in the deepest bunkers of the Donbass where shell-shocked covert NATO forces are submerging in their deep-shit pants. Our most brilliant CIA patriots have hit on the perfect solution: diapers will be launched over the Donbass in huge salvoes of airburst Tochka-U missiles, designed to burst directly above VSU bunker entrances. All diapers have been smeared with the latest Novichok (TM) cosmetics, perfect for the most deep-shit experience and the most sensitive NATO skin.

As for the worthless munitions - enterprising oligarchs would have to get in fast, because Russia's missile forces will be launching pretty quick once the warehouses are full.

[Note: It is advisable to ensure cups of coffee are placed securely on a firm surface before reading this post.]

Posted by: BM | Apr 26 2022 7:10 utc | 245

@ Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 6:58 utc | 241 who asked

"
Yes, but I think they want to do it without starting WWIII. The question is: how?
"

I think that is where the word existential comes in and hopefully there are discussions going on between the God of Mammon cult members and the China/Russia axis about the potential path forward.....I don't expect to read about the results in what is left of my lifetime but someday maybe some MoA barflys may read about what is currently going down at the "upper levels" of our "quaint society".

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 7:11 utc | 246

@Norwegian #226

Correct.

Posted by: Tim | Apr 26 2022 7:13 utc | 247

Posted by: Hannibal | Apr 25 2022 18:38 utc | 59

Further, Bosnia, Republica Serbska and Serbia are visibly ramping up to be a potential hotspot between "East vs. West."

https://avaz.ba/vijesti/bih/736253/senad-masovic-ekskluzivno-za-avaz-bih-dobiva-americke-javeline-i-rakete-kratkog-i-srednjeg-dometa

Posted by: ERing46Z | Apr 26 2022 7:20 utc | 248

Russia’s S-500 Missile System Enters Mass Production https://sputniknews.com/20220425/russias-s-500-missile-system-enters-mass-production-1095034431.html

The S-500 Prometey began to enter into service with the Russian military in September 2021, with about 30 units estimated to have been delivered to date.

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 26 2022 7:26 utc | 249

well we know where zelensky wont be ... at the G20 in Bali. usa is angry at indonesia for inviting putin and refusing zelensky, like his corrupt nation should get world stage attention. his world attention should be the perp walk on his arrest

Posted by: pablozz | Apr 26 2022 8:06 utc | 250

Compared to the White House residents of past two decades, George H. Bush nearly sounds like Nelson Mandela on his visit to Moscow and Kiev 30 July – 1 August in 1991.

Bill Clinton betrayed Boris Yeltsin in the mid 1990s. After 9/11 and invoking Article 5, NATO was strengthened beyond what was necessary for a defensive org. The Bucharest Summit of early 2008 sealed the path towards confrontation with Russia.

Centuries ago, your forebears named this country Ukraine, or “frontier,” because your steppes link Europe and Asia. But Ukrainians have become frontiersmen of another sort. Today you explore the frontiers and contours of liberty.


So, let me build upon my comments in Moscow by describing in more detail what Americans mean when we talk about freedom, democracy, and economic liberty.

No terms have been abused more regularly, nor more cynically than these. Throughout this century despots have masqueraded as democrats, jailers have posed as liberators. We can restore faith in government only by restoring meaning to these concepts.

I don't want to sound like I'm lecturing, but let's begin with the broad term ``freedom.'' When Americans talk of freedom, we refer to people's abilities to live without fear of government intrusion, without fear of harassment by their fellow citizens, without restricting others' freedoms. We do not consider freedom a privilege, to be doled out only to those who hold proper political views or belong to certain groups. We consider it an inalienable individual right, bestowed upon all men and women. Lord Acton once observed: The most certain test by which we judge whether a country is really free is the amount of security enjoyed by minorities.

Freedom requires tolerance, a concept embedded in openness, in glasnost, and in our first amendment protections for the freedoms of speech, association, and religion -- all religions.

Tolerance nourishes hope. A priest wrote of glasnost: Today, more than ever the words of Paul the Apostle, spoken 2,000 years ago, ring out: They counted us among the dead, but look, we are alive. In Ukraine, in Russia, in Armenia, and the Baltics, the spirit of liberty thrives.

But freedom cannot survive if we let despots flourish or permit seemingly minor restrictions to multiply until they form chains, until they form shackles. Later today, I'll visit the monument at Babi Yar -- a somber reminder, a solemn reminder, of what happens when people fail to hold back the horrible tide of intolerance and tyranny.

Yet freedom is not the same as independence. Americans will not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism. They will not aid those who promote a suicidal nationalism based upon ethnic hatred.

Search: George Bush trip to Moscow and Kiev - 01 August 1991 [video]

NATO Russia Founding Act - A Dead Letter

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 8:23 utc | 251

Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 6:46 utc | 236

Thx! Insightful response.

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 8:25 utc | 252

@ Hickory

"https://militaryland.net/" is pro Ukrainian but offers decent maps and list of the Ukrainian build-up.

Posted by: Bjørn Holmgaard | Apr 26 2022 8:25 utc | 253

#----Obviously, Western analysts have come to a conclusion. That the South-East of the country and its left-bank part of the Nazi regime cannot be kept. But at the same time, it is extremely important for the West to keep at least part of the former Ukraine under its control.
------------

Posted by: Kim | Apr 25 2022 20:54 utc | 100

The only control the West has, relies strictly on the narrative. A narrative that is much harder to maintain this time, than ever before, even if the public consciousness is almost silent. I can see it clearly in the comment-sections around.

When people begin to doubt the story, they start looking for alternatives- alternatives often provided by hit-pieces in main-stream media.

I've seen more and more addressing the dichotomy between claiming victory while crying for more help, like elensky and his racket does.

In my opinion the most dangerous players in this game - as so often before - are the kazarian jews. They seem to want ride on the back of past victories, right back to their homeland.


Posted by: Anne B | Apr 26 2022 9:08 utc | 254

Here we go the Syrian White Helmets have been deployed in Ukraine expect a multitude of false flags from them.


"Ukrainian authorities and their foreign handlers are planning false-flag attacks involving weapons of mass destruction, Russia’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky said on Monday. For that purpose, instructors of the notorious Syria-based White Helmets group have already been deployed to Ukraine, the official told reporters."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 9:42 utc | 255

From Pepe Escobar's Telegram channel forwarded from Gallia Daily, the Voice of France...

FRENCH SPECIAL FORCES IN UKRAINE ?

According to exclusive information obtained by sources close to Gallia Daily, it is highly likely that French special forces have been deployed to Ukraine.

Earlier this month, two platoons of the 13th Parachute Dragon Regiment (13RDP) were deployed to an unknown destination for a 2-4 month renewable mandate.

The 13RDP is the intelligence regiment of the French special forces. It is specialised in unconventional warfare, strike guidance (JTAC), sabotage, the use of optical reconnaissance means (blackhornet drones, cameras) as well as HIV capture.

Several reports seem to indicate that these men were deployed to Ukraine:

The men left equipped with their warm CCE military uniforms (forest camouflage) whereas currently all French operations take place in desert or tropical areas

The group leaving seems to be deliberately made up of JTAC personnel (trained to guide strikes, notably with CESAR guns, which France has just delivered to Ukraine...) while usually most platoons or sticks deployed in Africa are made of CTLO operators.

All the personnel of the group seem to hold the Instructor CATI certificate for the MILAN and the AT-4 (two French anti-tank weapons, delivered to Ukraine.

The personnel left on a military flight to a NATO country, before being deployed to their final destination by land vehicle... while most french military deployments actually occur using regular Air France flights.

All these elements appear to be unique to the Ukrainian theater, since the only other place that would fit would be Romania or Estonia, but to date we have not heard of any deployment of the 13RDP there.

According to these elements, it is therefore highly likely that 13RDP personel are deployed in Lviv or near the Polish border to provide training to the Ukrainian army.

This information has not been confirmed (nor denied) by our contact at the Ministry of the Armed Forces (MinArm). In case of a statement from the MinArm, we will edit our post.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 9:42 utc | 256

Poland makes it country number three to supply the Nazi's with tanks.


"Poland has supplied Ukraine with a number of tanks, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced on Monday, without offering details as to their number or type. This would make Poland the third NATO country to have armed Ukraine with tanks, after the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Earlier this month, the UK offered some of its tanks to Poland as replacements."


Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 9:43 utc | 257

What next will Kaliningrad come under terrorist attacks.


"Transnistria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), which borders Ukraine, its leader said on Tuesday. Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky placed the region on terrorist alert, RIA Novosti reported, citing the president's website.

Two back-to-back explosions rocked a broadcasting center in the village of Mayak on Tuesday morning, the region’s interior ministry said. It added that no one was hurt, but the two biggest antennas, which were transmitting Russian radio stations, have been disabled."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 9:47 utc | 258

Latest briefing from the Russian MoD Telegram channel... "Russia is in the business of killing Nazis. And business is good." - Scott Ritter.

Briefing by the Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue a special military operation in Ukraine.

During the night, high-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 4 military facilities of Ukraine. Including 2 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration of the enemy, as well as 2 ammunition depots near Kurulka and Novaya Dmitrovka of the Kharkov region.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 87 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 79 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

About 500 enemy personnel, 59 armored vehicles, artillery mounts and cars were destroyed, as well as more than 60 fighters of the nationalist formation Donbass near Rubtsy of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, 2 launchers of Buk-M1 and Osa AKM anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed near Veseloe and Prishib, as well as 2 ammunition depots near Novoselovka and Slavyansk.

Missile troops and artillery performed 1299 firing tasks during the day.

37 command posts, 114 strong points of Ukrainian troops, 983 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment, 139 positions of Ukrainian artillery and 21 ammunition depots were hit.

Also, 2 Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1 Tochka-U tactical missile launcher and an electronic warfare station were destroyed near Barvenkovo.

Russian air defence means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Novy Mir, Ocheretino Mirnoye, Donetsk, Novolyubovka, Balakleya, Kozacha Lopan.

In addition, 2 Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles were shot down by the Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system in the air over Tokmak, Zaporozhye region and Svatovo, Kharkov region.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 141 aircraft, 110 helicopters, 583 unmanned aerial vehicles, 269 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,576 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 287 multiple rocket launchers, 1,111 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,392 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 9:47 utc | 259

EUROPE

For 30 years they have not listened. They didn't think what is happening now was possible. Because they are arrogant. Now they have no plan.

They thought they were part of an indomitable Empire of Lies, now they are its cannon fodder, doomed to die. But they don't even realize that.

They have missed so much that corrections now would shatter their system and their lies. And still they have no plan.

You know why?

Because having a plan implies starting and thinking responsibly from one's own interests. But that is already anti-Americanism.

That's why they will not have a plan in the future. And that goes for everyone: bankers, CEOs, associations, politicians.

Europe does not exist.

Posted by: njet | Apr 26 2022 9:49 utc | 260

The British to send more Starstreak missile systems to Ukraine, some Nazi's are in the UK training, meanwhile Israel looks like it has bowed to Biden on its stance towards Russia, I wonder if Israel will send the Nazi's the Iron Dome protection system, Jews siding with Nazi's what a f*cked-up world we live in, mind you looking at what the Israeli's have done to the Palestinians for over seventy-years, its now difficult to tell which ones are the Nazi's (Pig to man and back again, until finally, they are indistinguishable).

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 9:54 utc | 261

@John #201
The 7th cavalry also used Hotchkiss Gatling guns to massacre North American Indians.
See Wounded Knee.

Posted by: $outhpaw | Apr 26 2022 9:55 utc | 262

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 20:58 utc | 103

Hi Karlof1, can you let me know which specific Orlov's essay at Saker's are you referring to, I searched and found quite a few, thanks.

Posted by: ETA | Apr 26 2022 10:06 utc | 263

From Rybar Telegram channel... Rybar investigates "humanitarian aid" being delivered to Kharkiv...


"Humanitarian aid" for Kharkiv under the auspices of the SBU, part 1

On April 20, 8 Nissan Navara armored medical vehicles and at least one Renault Master minibus arrived in Kharkiv. Assistance was allocated by the international humanitarian organization Migrant Offshore Aid Station (MOAS) for the needs of law enforcement agencies.

The deputy of the Kharkiv Regional Council Natalya Plotnik joyfully reported (https://www.facebook.com/100012235268978/posts/1469767893441039/?d=n) about the arrival of humanitarian aid. However, looking closely at the photographs, you can see an employee of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine, Serhiy Melnyk.

Most likely, under the guise of humanitarian aid under the guise of international organizations, military cargo is being delivered to Kharkiv. And of particular importance are the same Switchblade UAVs that the Armed Forces of Ukraine now need because of the upcoming offensive of the RF Armed Forces.

Part 2
(https://t.me/rybar/31777)
Part 3
(https://t.me/rybar/31778) #analysis #Russia #

"Humanitarian aid" for Kharkiv under the auspices of the SBU, part 2

The presence of Sergey Melnik and the escort of the cargo confirms the supervision of the delivery by the GUR. People's Deputy Yulia Svetlichnaya was the co-organizer, which was confirmed by Melnyk in his post on Facebook. This post is currently unavailable.

It would seem that why would a scout escort a humanitarian cargo from MOAS?

The fact is that the American Save Our Allies Foundation (SOA) provided assistance and assistance in all this.

What is known about SOA?

The official task is the evacuation and rescue of the population of allied countries from crisis areas.

Collaborates with the US DoD and other foundations like MOAS.

SOA was directly involved in the evacuation of the US and NATO military contingent from Afghanistan.

A US Department of Defense contractor of this stature would not be transporting conventional humanitarian aid, especially with Ukraine's GUR.

Part 1
(https://t.me/rybar/31776)
Part 3
(https://t.me/rybar/31778) #analysis #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov

"Humanitarian aid" for Kharkiv under the auspices of the SBU, part 3

The SOA fund involves American "retirees" with an extremely interesting background:

Chad Robichaux - Marine Corps veteran, founder of the organization, contractor for the Department of Defense;

Sarah Verardo - co-founder of SOA, consultant to the US Congress;

Nick Palmishano - Vice President of the organization, ex-US Army soldier;

Tim Kennedy - co-founder, veteran of the Green Berets;

Megan Mobs - Executive Director, Military Psychologist, Afghan Veteran;

John Tackett is a former member of the U.S. Army Special Forces Ranger Psychic Fighting Squad and former Air Marshal.

Do you still believe that this is an "ordinary humanitarian aid"? We are convinced otherwise.

The use of humanitarian organizations as cover is a common practice. We have already analyzed the case (https://t.me/rybar/31245) of the Swiss NGO 22nd WILD LIFE, which redirects mercenaries to Ukraine under the auspices of humanitarian aid.

Part 1
(https://t.me/rybar/31776)
Part 2
(https://t.me/rybar/31777) #analysis #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov
@rybar

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 10:16 utc | 264

There is only one chance left to save Mariupol — a blow to Transnistria" - Butusov

https://t.me/intelslava/26846

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 10:19 utc | 265

@ Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 17:15 utc | 35

Re: consequences for Nato et al. in a widening escalation.

It is hard to find a balanced view of things, for all their qualifications, the Scott Ritter's and Martyanov's are extremely biased and rarely paint a balanced picture beyond ""Russia is mighty, Nato are incompetent" type analysis. While i am not questioning that may be accurate in many ways, there is a lot of grey in this black and white argument where the war would be actually fought. So here are few considerations that rarely get mentioned.

Short of Nuclear war, Russia must rely on its conventional Navy, Air Force and Army.

Navy: assuming assets deployed in the Med/Atlantic fire off their salvos, how do you think they will fare returning to port sailing past Denmark, Turkey or Gibraltar? How many ships and subs will actually make it back to rearm? How many Zirkons do they actually have in operation, and what is the plan once they are all spent? War is a numbers game, and are we sure there are enough ships and missiles to match all the ones that Nato will be left with, who for sure are not going to sit there idle? What damage will they then do to Russia?

Air Force: Look at NATO vs Russia numbers, capabilities aside, Russia's air force is tiny compared to all of Nato. So what if the S-400 is mighty and deadly, one salvo and then what are they gonna do when 100's of jets start taking them out and bombers follow through breaking through defensive lines?

Army: 2 months in Ukraine should prove to anyone that there is no easy quick war, regardless of the questionable 'soft' tactics which would no longer apply outside Ukraine. And what would Russia do once their railways are no longer able to service them outside of Ukraine? At best maybe a stale mate in terms of territorial gains?

It's pretty clear any major confrontation would result in devastating losses on both sides, but in the end, Russia does not have the numbers. Furthermore, while the West can focus on Moscow and St Petersburg and a small number of naval bases and inflict massive damage on few concentrated target areas. Nato's assets are spread all over Europe and the US, from Naples to Hamburg, from Portsmouth to Norfolk and so on.

I am no fan of the West, i am just making a logical argument based on some basic numbers easily researched online. There is a reason why Russia waited 8 years in Ukraine, and even then, it is treading very carefully, keeping most of its army in reserve, knowing fuel well that while it has conventional escalation dominance in Ukraine, that is very likely not the case if this extends further. that is evident by how Russia and the West are conducting themselves. Unless it goes nuclear, in which case everyone loses, Russia has limited options against taking on the whole West a once.

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266

#---Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 26 2022 2:33 utc | 190

Not the only one- what about the sactified Elie Wiesel

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 267

#---What constitutes desirable policy is decided elsewhere by crazed ideologues.

Posted by: Paul | Apr 26 2022 2:38 utc | 191

"For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms." Ephesians 6:12

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 26 2022 10:30 utc | 268

Posted by: bevin | Apr 25 2022 21:01 utc |

Could those people named in the orinocotribune.com article end up on the CIA's hit list eventually?


Posted by: ETA | Apr 26 2022 10:32 utc | 269

K #235

Imo Russia will use conventional warheads on its supersonic missiles. It is absolutely not in the business of using nukes. Just as a sinking battle cruiser is sobering for Russians, so too is a sinking aircraft carrier for the USA.

The supersonic missile fleet of Russia will be fully demonstrated as time goes by. I guess this second phase will reveal many surprises.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 26 2022 10:38 utc | 270

The 13e RDP took part in the Gulf War. This was highlighted when three operators were captured by the Iraqis in late 1990. The 13e RDP was, along with other French units, heavily involved in the Kosovo War and used tactics and technology to force Serbian armour to attempt to engage Kosovo Liberation Army and other Allied forces in the open, which enabled them to be destroyed by Allied bombing, particularly by the United States Air Force and the Royal Air Force.

The 13e RDP also contributed to the capture of Momčilo Krajišnik in 2001 by close range recons.

https://balkaninsight.com/2020/09/15/momcilo-krajisnik-bosnian-serb-leader-denied-war-crimes-to-the-end/


From Wikipedia page this link …

Eyes on target: ‘Stay-behind’ forces during the Cold War
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0968344520914345

Posted by: Oui | Apr 26 2022 10:39 utc | 271

My 10.07 post seems not to be showing.
I’ll repost it.

The failure of our ‘Western Civilisation’ (sounds like a good idea said Gandhi – implying we should try and make it a reality) is now complete.
When we applaud today Germany announcing tanks being sent to Ukraine to fight Russia !
As the Second World War generation dies off – if they haven’t already after being accelerated by the Covid – so does the fond folk memories of Russian Allies. The great meetings between Roosevelt and Stalin, the boozy wino Winnie in Yalta agreeing to keep Russia spending itself to survive the Nazis and actually agains all odds doing so!
The Artic convoys are one thing but the 20 millions Soviet victims dwarf everything. As Putin said don’t forget who beat the Nazis and who stormed Berlin.
Our petty losses on the DDay beaches being a last minute show of sacrifice once the battle of Kursk in 43 had broken the Panzers and German Armies and retreat was their only option.
Surrender was Germans only option but they chose disaster.
The same choice is available to today’s Nazis in Ukraine and they too are being forced to choose disaster.
They also are equally a proxy army funded by the Western Oligarchs and directed by its military generals and mercenaries to have another go at cracking the Russian egg.
China is speaking explicitly now. Nothing is reported of the leaders and diplomats of these countries in our media. There is no pretence of letting readers and viewers make up their own minds. The Earth must remain flat because we may rush to the edge and unbalance it if we believed it wasn’t!
Over turning all their palaces and plans.
Germany sending tanks to Ukraine to fight Russians would have that ‘greatest generation’ whirling in their war graves never mind us who remember that if it hadn’t been for Russians and Soviets, Hitler and his backers – many US oligarchs- would have achieved their ends.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 26 2022 10:41 utc | 272

From https://t.me/milinfolive Telegram channel... Description of the forces protecting Transnistria...

What troops protect the PMR?

At the moment, there are 2,500-3,000 Russian servicemen in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). These are the 82nd and 113th separate guards motorized rifle battalions, and the 540th separate control battalion.

The total strength of the PMR Armed Forces is 15,000 people. The PMR Armed Forces have 4 motorized rifle brigades located in the cities of Tiraspol, Bendery, Dubossary and Rybnitsa, of which one is guards (deployed in the city of Tiraspol). Four special forces battalions. Mob reserve up to 80 thousand people.

In addition, there is information that a detachment of helicopters is located there, as well as two battalions of military unit No. 13962 to protect one of the largest weapons and ammunition depots in Europe in Kolbasna.

100 tanks
Up to 200 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles
35,000 vehicles
Combat vehicles with ATGMs
BDRM
500 units of military engineering equipment
200 air defense systems
MLRS "Grad"
Artillery guns and mortars

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 10:43 utc | 273

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266

That war will quickly turn nuclear. This is where Russia has great advantage with hypersonic missiles carrying nuclear warheads. This is why US and NATO will chew the war bone in Ukraine to the very end and stop there. Besides nobody knows what China would do if there is a global war.

Posted by: Milos | Apr 26 2022 10:49 utc | 274

From;Sergey Lavrov,

The risk of nuclear war is real, this danger should not be underestimated.
------------
The conflict in Ukraine will end with a treaty, but its parameters will be determined by the stage of hostilities during which it is concluded.
----------
The West and the United States are using Ukraine as a "military ram" against Russia, seeking "by any means" to delay the special operation.
------------
The Russian Federation warned Japan through diplomatic channels that if the scale of US-Japanese naval exercises expands, it will take retaliatory measures

Sergey Lavrov's politics

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 10:51 utc | 275

Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 10:43 utc | 273

To continue the escalation, Roumanian troops are supposed to join in, disguised as the Moldovians.

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 26 2022 10:57 utc | 276

@Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266

Russia (+China and SCO members + India and post-next election Pakistan) does not have leave home to turn the lights out in the EU.

Your assumptions are narrowly focused on kinetic warfare. I'd question them as well, but the point of my comment here is that we are in a tectonic plate shift away from the derivative economics of colonial parasites (read London and Wall St etc) towards resource based economics -- you got something to trade/swap?

If you have large unsustainable urban populations to house and feed in hot summers and freezing winters but don't have domestic gas, oil and fertilizer then you have a major problem on the horizon. And all Putin needs to do is eat popcorn in his Moscow office and trade with those that wish to benefit from lower energy and food (wheat) prices within a highly competitive international market economy rapidly tilting its center of gravity towards East and Southeast Asia.

As the German industry are starting to realise, if international markets are lost to less expensive competitive alternatives due to base resource cost differentials then you won't be making much once the domestic warehouses are full to the rafters. China and India are the big winners going forward -- and they know it!

The rest is just a long drawn out anticipatory grief stage curve to the new "fair world" order. Back to the Coal Age for Europe? I'd suggest even worse and that the forests will be under extinction risk in due course as wood becomes a basic essential.

Posted by: imo | Apr 26 2022 10:58 utc | 277

Cornered rats. Trying to incite response on Transnistra.
They may want the ammo dump.
They may hope for an escalation.
Whoever did it – was special forces of some Western belligerent.
French are reported deployed as well as SAS and probably the rest of the Nato types and mercenaries.

The politicians are now openly saying ‘we are at war with Russia’ when upto now it has been ‘we were just worried about our little Nazis in Ukraine getting mullered even though we have trained supplied and commanded them since 2014 – but they did it all by their plucky own Nazi selves’

I noted very early on in this that Putin and Co were very clear it was not War but a Special Operation.
If War is what is wanted by nato it will have to be the one declaring it.
At which point it’s ‘we are a defensive organisation of three little pigs’ goes beyond its useable date.

At which point the SCO and therefore China and their very recent treaty reaffirmation is of ‘Good neighbourliness’ of mutual security cuts in.

All of this is known – we are as I have also discerned through Covid – being led into a purdahed existence, cut off from 85% of humanity, cut off from all these resources an cheap products.
We are having our financial security and savings wilfully destroyed through inflation and interest rates and be deprived of all products from China and the SCO.

Btw anybody else remember the HK Color attempt ? Remember these Uke Nazis showing up there?

Think the Chinese will not have forgotten.

Time to consider where to move to for the last 20 years of my useful life on Earth – it’s going to become Soviet grim here.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 26 2022 11:00 utc | 278

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266

Imo,you miss the point.
A war with Russia by the West will also have to be a War with China.
So things are made much more difficult for the West.
The reason why Russia waited 8 years was to prepare and have a military advantage,backed by China,knowing if Russia fell,they would be next.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 11:08 utc | 279

If War is what is wanted by nato it will have to be the one declaring it.

Article I, Section 8, Clause 11 of the U.S. Constitution grants to Congress the sole power to declare war.

US Congress has NOT declared War since 1942 against Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

Last time UK declared War was 1942 against Thailand for allying with Japan.
Interestingly UK declared War on Finland 6 Dec 1941

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 11:10 utc | 280

I don't know why people can't see past the simple statement of a fact and look at it in context. They always jump in and say, "Well, that can't happen because this..." Well, Afghanistan was never going to be a success. They did it. Iraq was never going to be a success. They did it. Ukraine was never going to be a success. They did it. How many more times do they have to "do it" before people get it?

The ruling elites, and the neocons, and the CIA DO NOT LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 7:06 utc | 242

Yes, it cannot be said often enough: everything, starting with the invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, was always a stupid idea, and they were told that too, and they still did it.

But none of that was existential for them, and this would be, so that is different, and I think that makes a difference.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2022 11:11 utc | 281

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266

While there is definite truth in the reality that Martyanov and Ritter etc are remarkably optimistic, there are some things you have over calculated. Russian ships in the Baltic do not travel via the Mediterranean, so it is only the Denmark which might be of concern.

When it comes to aircraft, it is probable that the first strike in a hot war against NATO would take our most of the US aircraft carriers, making much of their airfleet useless or severely handicapped.

You also ignore the reality of the Sarmat. Even with non nuclear weapons it may be assumed Russia would dump heavily upon the UK, Germany, Poland and Romania. probably also Turkey, Finland and Sweden. if push comes to shove with an all out NATO war, you can expect that Finland, the three Baltic states and probably Denmark would come under very swift attack, because as you point ou this is a choke point.

Then of course there is direct attack on the leading NATO countries. presumably London, German bases, Washington, Now York, Seattle and LA would be obvious targets. if st Petersberg is severely damaged I would expect London to last 5 minutes and New York 10 minutes and Hollywood 15 minutes.

Finally in terms of numbers you must recognise that if it looks as if NATO will defeat Russia, China will enter the war, because it cannot allow the US to control the border with Russia, nor can it allow Japan to get too strong at Russia's expense.

Posted by: watcher | Apr 26 2022 11:18 utc | 282

Posted by: imo | Apr 26 2022 10:58 utc | 277

As the German industry are starting to realise, if international markets are lost to less expensive competitive alternatives due to base resource cost differentials then you won't be making much once the domestic warehouses are full to the rafters. China and India are the big winners going forward -- and they know it!


I am concerned you think this is news. German industry as you call it - at least the DAX concerns ceased Net Investment in Germany decades ago and now produce OUTSIDE Germany.

What is stuck in Germany is Mittelstand - the backbone of German employment and exports - and Chemicals such as BASF which depend on the chemical feedstocks in Russian gas - and windmills do not produce chemical feedstocks !

As for windmills - they do not grow in fields but require specialist rare-earth metals from Russia and feedstocks for making composites for blades.

France is not much better. Its much vaunted nuclear reactor program is facing maintenance problems and France imports Russian gas.

Spain is vulnerable because Algeria will not ship gas via Morocco and that is how Spain gets Algerian gas.

There is a monomania with Germany because people think Germany is what it was in 1950s rather than the fact it imports key components and technologies from China nowadays. When CATL built a battery factory in Erfurt they stated they could not install their most advanced machinery as Germans were not competent to operate it.

That is the main battery supplier to VW and BMW in the same state that makes 50% Mercedes ICE engines !

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 11:20 utc | 283

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266
"Russia's air force is tiny compared to all of Nato."

Where do NATO's jets fly from when all the airfields are destroyed in the first 24 hours? What fuel do they use when the fuel depots are destroyed? Russia launches over a thousand missiles a day in Ukraine.

"So what if the S-400 is mighty and deadly, one salvo"

You're aware that these are mobile, right? You're aware that they are part of a layered AD system which is intended to take out said "salvo", right? Of course, no one is saying every single S-400, S-500 and S-550 is going to survive forever.

"And what would Russia do once their railways are no longer able to service them"

What's NATO going to do when their railways are no longer to service them? Do you have any idea how long it would to assemble all of NATO's forces into a cohesive force? Check into the recent NATO exercises and how long to took to move their forces into position for the exercise.

"while the West can focus on Moscow and St Petersburg and a small number of naval bases and inflict massive damage on few concentrated target areas. Nato's assets are spread all over Europe and the US, from Naples to Hamburg, from Portsmouth to Norfolk and so on."

The stuff across the Atlantic is irrelevant. And it will never make it across the Atlantic because all NATO ports and airfields will be destroyed in the first few weeks.

"i am just making a logical argument based on some basic numbers easily researched online."

And zero comprehension of strategy.

"There is a reason why Russia waited 8 years in Ukraine"

Yes, and it is no longer waiting. Might want to think about that.

"and even then, it is treading very carefully, keeping most of its army in reserve"

Because it doesn't need it.

"Russia has limited options against taking on the whole West a once."

You should ask Scott Ritter or Dr. Phillip Karber on the Russian Way of War

No one is saying there wouldn't be huge losses on both sides. But THIRTY NATO war games show Russia winning every single one of them. Example:

‘Disaster for NATO,’ Defeated by Russia Over and Over in Their Own Wargame Exercises
https://sofrep.com/news/this-wargame-revealed-russias-supremacy-over-nato/

If Russia Started a War in the Baltics, NATO Would Lose — Quickly
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/03/if-russia-started-a-war-in-the-baltics-nato-would-lose-quickly/

You might want to reread Ritter's article from February and consider the points he makes again:
A war with Russia would be unlike anything the US and NATO have ever experienced
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/56987.htm

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:31 utc | 284

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 26 2022 10:57 utc | 276

Ah, I thought it was Polish troops. Romanian sounds right. Anyway, at this point it's all rumor AFAIK.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:33 utc | 285

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2022 11:11 utc | 281
"But none of that was existential for them, and this would be, so that is different, and I think that makes a difference."

Unless they can convince themselves that they can "finesse" it so it won't be. That's what delusional people do and that's who we're talking about.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:35 utc | 286

From Intel Slava Z Telegram channel...

The German defense concern Rheinmetall sent an application to the German government for approval of the delivery of 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine, Welt reports, citing documents that came into its possession.

According to the publication, the corresponding application was received by the German government at the end of last week. The cost of previously used Leopard 1A5 tanks is about 115 million euros. The proposal to transfer the tanks was received by Kyiv on April 14, the concern is ready to make the first deliveries "within a few weeks": the first 22 tanks - in six to eight weeks, the remaining 66 will be transferred gradually until the end of 2023.

Like there's gonna be a Ukraine military to receive them at the end of 2023...or even 6-8 weeks... LOL

Everyone getting in on the "send billable stuff to Ukraine" scam...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 287

From Intel Slava Z Telegram channel... Someone in NATO is directly attacking Transnistria...

UAVs dropped NATO mines on the military airfield in Tiraspol

In Tiraspol, a military airfield was hit by 60mm mines, which were most likely dropped from drones.
With the aggravation of the situation, the threat of a provocation against Russian peacekeepers who ensure security in the region is growing.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:48 utc | 288

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 10:22 utc | 266

I’m in at least partial agreement with you. Even remaining conventional, it would be horrific for all sides. That said, I think the US/NATO would be at an extreme disadvantage. First because it remains to be seen whether European NATO is a real fighting force beyond a handful of troops in low intensity conflicts. (Are German munitions already significantly depleted?)

But the big factor is the requirement of long distance force projection by the US and its global spread. The conflict would not necessarily be limited to Europe. Can the US redeploy troops from east Asia to Europe? Would the DPRK start launching missiles at Okinawa? What about Iran? It can clearly destroy pretty much every US asset in the ME and close the only reasonable way to redeploy Asian forces to Europe.

In terms of the naval side, would the Russian fleet need to rearm? If it removes a carrier or two from the equation the US air power input changes dramatically. As would any Russian strikes on European fuel and military airfields. And a factor worth considering is prestige. The American people and its military consider themselves untouchable. The picture of a carrier sinking in the Med or massive losses in Europe early on would either be crushing or would escalate to nukes almost immediately.

The US is in a very tough position because it’s so heavily based on global force projection and has been able to succeed based as much on the threat of force as the actual application. Not that it can’t apply massive force or rebound from initial losses, but that it has not been tested and it is likely relatively fragile in terms of its reliance on “next generation” everything. That’s a big bet that could go badly given the experience with equipment malfunction in Iraq. We also have to assume that the US mainland would not be safe. Kinzhals on bombers could strike the mainland without nuclear escalation and be relatively stand-off.

No doubt the US MIC is massive, but it’s been turned into a profit engine rather than a war machine. The military doesn’t even have control of maintaining equipment in more than a few cases. It has one tank factory that currently produces 11 tanks per month. Can it ramp up production? How quickly?

Posted by: Lex | Apr 26 2022 11:53 utc | 289

From Colonelcassad Telegram channel... The situation in Transnistria...

The situation in Transnistria (officially):

1. Peacekeeping forces in Transnistria control the situation in the Security Zone, said Oleg Belyakov, co-chairman of the Joint Control Commission.
2. Three terrorist attacks were recorded during the day: the building of the Ministry of State Security of the PMR in the city of Tiraspol, the military unit near the village of Parkany and the towers of the radio and television center near the village of Mayak were damaged.
3. A decision was made to introduce a "red" level of terrorist threat in the country. The "red" level of terrorist danger is set for 15 days.
4. The Victory Parade on May 9 in Transnistria has been cancelled. The flower-laying ceremony will take place.
5. City educational institutions will work remotely until the end of the academic year.
6. The queue at the border due to the enhanced regime of document verification. People calmly cross the border.
7. Checkpoints will be set up at the entrance to the cities of Transnistria. Inspection of vehicles and citizens during the daytime will be selective, at night control measures will affect everyone entering the settlement. The power structures have been transferred to an enhanced mode of service.
8. Criminal cases have been initiated on the fact of the shelling of the building of the Ministry of State Security. Now establish all the circumstances and the perpetrators. A number of special examinations have been appointed.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 12:01 utc | 290

@48 morongobill "Thoughts?"

Lang believed back in mid-March that Russia had already passed the "Culminating Point" and were ripe for a "sudden reverse and defeat".

His words, not mine.

That was six weeks ago, and in that time the Russians (rather deftly, IMHO) pulled back from Kiev, redeployed to Donbas, and are now in the process of launching the real offensive which is (again, IMHO) to trap the cream of the Ukrainian army in a massive cauldron.

They did all that without a single significant counter-attack from the Ukrainians.

So while I think that someone has definitely been stretched beyond their available resources, I certainly don't think it is the Russians.

Still, Lang is right: if the Ukrainians are going to crush the Russians then they'll need new troops, new trucks, new artillery, new tanks, and - oh, yeah, nearly forgot - new aircraft.

Lots of 'em.

Still, the nagging thought remains: how do the Ukrainians get all that stuff to Donbas?

You know, where the Russians are, and so ripe for the crushing.

I suspect the answer is: they can't.

The Ukrainians simply can not employ their stuff en-masse without it becoming a mess of twisted metal.

On a small scale? Sure.
On the defensive? Sure.

But that only prolongs the agony. It won't save all those Ukrainian troops in Donbas, any more than it saved the neo-nazis in Mariupol.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 26 2022 13:00 utc | 291

@ Posted by: watcher | Apr 26 2022 11:18 utc | 282

"Russian ships in the Baltic do not travel via the Mediterranean, so it is only the Denmark which might be of concern."

Denmark has the narrowest point, but first we have soon to be Nato members Finland + Sweden, then Poland, Germany.. Netherlands, Belgium, Norway.. France and UK all hunting your ships in a narrow hostile sea. And what's the plan for winter, if the gulf of Finland freezes over? Good luck with all that, i wouldn't like those odds and neither does Russia.

As for the rest of the counter arguments, i was just addressing the myth of "Russia will kick Nato's ass militarily". It is clear the long attrition patient game and the economic/resource angle is Russia's best strategy, which is exactly why we are seeing it implemented.

Nevertheless, in 2 months they still lost 2 ships, a ton of tanks, helis and planes, Transnistria is now involved, and the trajectory points to more and more attacks on Russia, all of which will have to be absorbed in depleting capabilities and domestic instability, to be countered with unproven means of deterrence. Risk factor is high and only getting higher.

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 13:18 utc | 292

@ Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:31 utc | 284

Re Airfields.

Of course, but what about the numbers? That's a lot of targets to take out in a very short time. Does Russia have enough missiles, and can it successfully launch that many at once to pre empt all Nato attacks? i dont know.

What i do know, is in 2 months Russia is still prosecuting targets, depots etc, while Ukrainian planes, drones and helis are still flying, and that is just Ukraine. There are thousands of airfields in Europe, if military ones get taken out, then civilian ones will be used. It sound a bit optimistic to assume Russia has the capability to do so much damage without getting a bloody nose too, after all, for every missile it sends, it is likely to receive multiples in return, as i said, numbers. Kinzhal is only in service since 1-2 years, how many do they actually have? They need Mig 31's too, not too many of them that are operational for that missile, lose a few... even less.

Finally, if Ukrainians have breached Russia's borders, you don't think the full force of Nato couldn't?? That just seems absurd. Let's just hope to never ever have to find out.

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 13:33 utc | 293

Posted by: watcher | Apr 26 2022 11:18 utc | 282

Sarmat is a nuclear-armed ICBM. As such, it is a doomsday weapon. It would have no role in a conventional conflict.

Posted by: Unnamed | Apr 26 2022 13:33 utc | 294

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 26 2022 2:56 utc | 194

I too live in Mexico but can access strategic-culture.org. Not using VPN. So suspect it might be a browser issue, though maybe your ISP is blocking and mine (Megacable) is not. Using Brave Browser with default privacy settings. A friend in Michoacan also cannot access. I believe he uses Telmex.

Buena suerte!

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 26 2022 13:56 utc | 295

@ Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 11:31 utc | 284

Yeah there are many valid points of course, but as far as some studies go, has anyone ever considered they could also be conveniently so in order to get even more funding? "Russia beat us so.. give us more money!" also fits into your argument, does it not? ;

For example, one article starts with: "Russian T-14 Armata battle tanks overturn cement in the streets..."

T-14 is not even in production yet, let alone in service in any significant numbers, as far as i know.

So much modern Russian equipment, is either not yet in production or deployed in minimal numbers meaning for the bulk of the fighting, it will be relying on at best case equal or mostly older equipment to modern Nato armies like all the T-72's, BTR and BMP's we see in Ukraine.

And as i said, taking Scott Ritter's word on everything he says, well, he literally said he takes Russia's MOD's figures at face value... same with Martyanov, the Saker at al... never ever consider the Russians could also be lying, really?? not even Russians believe their own Gov't.. ever wondered how they know Ukraine's dead to single digit accuracy, yet cannot give a number for their own since mid March? nuff said ;

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2022 14:03 utc | 296

@293 Et Tu "There are thousands of airfields in Europe, if military ones get taken out, then civilian ones will be used."

Nah, unlikely to be effective.

The Russians understand that their military airfields are not going to survive long, which is why their fighter jets have superb short-field performance and are designed from the ground up to operate for extended periods from makeshift airstrips.

Compare and contrast: The USAF has woeful anti-aircraft missile defenses, and don't seem to have any concept that an opponent can strike at their fighters on the ground.

Which is why the USAF fields overly-complex fighter jets that are tied to a handful of permanent military airfields and require constant maintenance. From the American PoV that's exactly what they need, because that's exactly how they have run roughshod over 3rd world enemies.

The Russians only need enough missiles to take out those maintenance facilities and the hangars that are housing those fighter jets and, honestly, it's all over.

Those aircraft that survive that onslaught may well disperse to civilian airfields or stretches of freeway.

And then.... what, exactly?

These are hangar queens. American fighter jets are simply not going to be able to maintain any sort of operational tempo when deprived of their permanent military bases and the equipment found on them.

And there is simply no second-tier missile defense to step up and take their place. Such defenses simply do not exist, because the Americans can't conceive that they'll ever need them.

Compare and contrast: the Russian MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters dispersed to their makeshift airstrips will still be able to maintain a tempo of operation. But even that will only be the second-tier of Russia's air defense, which is based on a mult-layered missile defense.

I think the Russians will gain air superiority in the first few days, and then things will only go downhill from there for NATO.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 26 2022 14:26 utc | 297

CarlD @196--

The Turks moves are noted, but I've had many other things to comment upon and post--there's only so much time I have that I can devote to this blog, and as a result some items must be omitted. That said, I'm awaiting an official Russian response to Turkey's actions. I did notice Lavrov talked by phone to the Turk FM, but the readout was very skimpy. The Turks have also said some other things of interest like blocking any further NATO expansion.

The reality is nobody likes Turkey's moves.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2022 15:31 utc | 298

ETA @264--

"Does Paul Craig Roberts like Genocide?" is the essay.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2022 15:33 utc | 299

ETA @ 264--

Apparently, Saker links now block comments. The essay is on Saker's main page and is titled "Does Paul Craig Roberts like Genocide?"

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2022 15:36 utc | 300

« previous page | next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.