Ukraine - Railway Hits, U.S. War Aims, Ops Report
Updated below at 17:45 UTC
Last Thursday the first destruction of bridges along Ukrainian railway routes in eastern Ukraine took place. These were important for Ukraine's war effort and especially for the resupplies flowing from west towards the eastern front:
The Ukrainian military, like Russia's, depends on railways for all long distance mass supplies as both have relatively few logistic trucks.The U.S. and others have said they would give the Ukraine dozens of 155mm towed artillery guns plus tens of thousands of shells with them. The U.S. guns come with one truck each to tow the gun.
That is all manageable so far but now let's look at the logistics (especially without railways). ...
I have estimated that the Ukraine does not have enough trucks to replace railway logistics and those logistics are now falling apart:
The Eurasianist @Russ_Warrior - 10:09 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
The Russian Armed Forces hit 7 substations in western #Ukraine:
_ Zdolbunov (trains stopped in Dubno area, delay of the trains to Kovel), _ Kazatin-2, _ Krasnoye, _ Podolskaya, _ Sknilov, _ Slavuta (decommissioning of the entire area of Zdolbunov and Slavuta stations), _ Fastov
bigger
The attacks have been confirmed:
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM - 12:07 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
Ukraine state railway head Oleksandr Kamyshin on Telegram: “Russian troops continue to systematically destroy railway infrastructure. This morning, within an hour, 5 railway stations in central and western Ukraine came under fire.” 19 trains delayed; unknown number of injuries.
The 'substations' Russia destroyed are the electric ones which supply the electrified long range train routes.
Woofers @NotWoofers - 12:02 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
Electrical substation in Krasne, near Lviv was hit by a Russian missile earlier today. Much damage was caused and a large fire was started.
Picture
The substations transform higher voltage to whatever the rail network needs. Without the substations, which are not easy to replace, most of Ukraine's locomotives will not run.
Some traffic will continue by using diesel locomotives. However, those are relatively rare as the Wikipedia entry for Ukrainian railways explains:
Number of locomotives – 1,944 (electric - 1,627, diesel - 301)
Diesel locomotives are slower than electrified ones. They also need a lot of diesel which has become rare in Ukraine and must be imported by rail(!) from Slovenia.
Supplying additional diesel locomotives from other countries in eastern Europe will not be possible. The Ukraine has, like Russia, wide gauge tracks of 1,524 mm (5 ft). Most other European countries use a normal gauge of 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in).
Meanwhile the U.S. announced a vague new aim for its proxy war against Russia:
Austin was in Poland, answering questions from reporters after a brief trip Sunday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv, where the pair met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials.The defense secretary was asked how he defined “America’s goals for success” in Ukraine. He first said Washington wants to see “Ukraine remain a sovereign country, a democratic country, able to protect its sovereign territory.”
Then, he said, the United States hopes Russia will be “weakened” by the war. “It has already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly, and we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability,” Austin said.
...
Speaking in a hangar in Poland filled with crates of humanitarian aid, including diapers, destined for Ukraine, the top Biden administration officials announced more than $700 million in new military aid to Ukraine and other countries, and said the United States intends to resume diplomatic operations in Ukraine this week.
All the diapers, weapons and munitions the U.S. and other countries supply to Ukraine will now mostly be stuck in west Ukraine where they will rot until some clever Ukrainian oligarch manages to sell them off to some third country.
The fall out from the railway attacks will also hit civilian supplies in Ukraine. It will hinder civilian passenger traffic especially for people who have fled towards the west and now have less transport available to return home.
Since the war started Russia has intentionally avoided to hit civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Electricity and communication networks as well as water supplies have all stayed intact. (In recent U.S. wars those were the first things it destroyed.) The attacks on the Ukrainian railway became only necessary after the U.S. and others provided more and more war materials to the Ukraine. Russia will not allow its troops to come under fire from those newly delivered weapons.
Despite warnings from Russia to Ukraine to not attack on Russian ground Ukrainian sabotage groups seem to have some success with destroying Russian infrastructure:
IWN @A7_Mirza - 14:22 UTC · Apr 25, 2022
#Russia #Ukraine
Large fire in #Druzhba oil depot in Russia's #Bryansk. Russia said it would investigate the cause of a large fire that erupted in the early hours of the morning at an oil storage facility in the city of Bryansk 154 km northeast of the border with Ukraine.
Pictures
This is the second large oil storage facility that in recent weeks suffered from such an accident or potential attack. However it is unlikely that this will hinder any Russian operation. Unlike Ukraine Russia has many refineries, very significant reserves and it can move large amounts of diesel by train throughout its country.
Next to its attacks on the Ukraine's traffic infrastructure to impede 'western' resupplies the Russian military continues to soften up the Ukrainian defense lines along the Donbas front. From this mornings 'clobber list' as published by the Russian Defense Ministry:
High-precision sea- and air-based long-range weapons on the northern outskirts of Kremenchuk destroyed fuel production facilities of an oil refinery, as well as storage facilities for oil products to supply military equipment of Ukrainian troops.During the night, 6 enemy assets were hit by high-precision air-based missiles. Among them: 3 strong points and areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment, as well as 3 ammunition depots in Barvenkovo and Novaya Dmitrovka in Kharkov Region.
Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 56 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 2 command posts and 53 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 fuel storage facility near Novaya Dmitrovka.
...
Missile troops carried out 19 strikes during the night. Destroyed: 4 command posts of the nationalists, including the 81st Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade, and three ammunition depots. 21 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration were hit.
...
Artillery units carried out 967 fire missions during the day. Destroyed: 33 command posts, 929 strong points, areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 5 missile and artillery weapons and ammunition depots.Russian air defence means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Mezhurino, Balakleya, Borodoyarkoe, Nevskoe in Kharkov Region and Vysokoe and Chernobaevka in Kherson Region.
In addition, Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile and cannon system shot down 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U missile and 18 rockets of a multiple-launch rocket system over Chernobaeka.
Since phase two of the war started last week there have been no larger battles. What we have seen so far from the Russian side does not amount to more than armored reconnaissance.
The nearly 1,000 artillery missions in the last 24 hours and on the days before speak of intense preparations for upcoming attacks by Russian mechanized forces. Over all artillery will do the most damage to the Ukrainian troops. In World War II and other modern mechanized wars some 65% of all casualties were caused by artillery strikes. The recent rate on the Ukrainian side will likely be higher.
I have said several weeks ago that the Ukraine has not chance to win in this war. It is losing more and more people and its economy has nearly ceased to exist.
But the U.S. wants to 'weaken' Russia by fighting it to the last Ukrainian. Ukraine's president Zelensky is obviously willing to go with that program. He should instead agree to Russia's reasonable peace conditions. He is destroying the Ukraine by not doing that.
Update 17:45 UTC
A Politico piece about the situation in Ukraine confirms my above take:
Heavy weaponry pours into Ukraine as commanders become more desperate
Western countries are rushing heavy weaponry to Ukraine as the war enters what promises to be a deadly, and potentially protracted, new phase.Those deliveries are coming amid increasingly desperate pleas from Ukrainian battlefield commanders as they endure withering Russian artillery and rocket fire that could last weeks or months.
Here is a realistic view of how the war feels on the ground:
Eighty miles north of [Mariupol], First Lt. Ivan Skuratovsky, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade, told POLITICO that help needs to come immediately.“The situation is very bad, [Russian forces] are using scorched- earth tactics,” the 31-year-old married father of two said via text. “They simply destroy everything with artillery, shelling day and night,” he said via text.
He fears that if reinforcements in the form of manpower and heavy weaponry — particularly air support — don’t arrive in the next few days, his troops could find themselves in the same position as those in Mariupol.
Skuratovsky described his soldiers’ situation as “very desperate.”
“I don’t know how much strength we will have,” he said, adding that the troops under his command around the city of Avdiivka, near Donetsk, have gone without rest since the start of the war. At least 13 of them have been wounded in recent weeks, he said, and they are running dangerously low on ammunition, reduced to rationing bullets.
The day before, he told POLITICO his soldiers were being bombarded with Russian howitzers, mortars and multiple-launch rocket systems “at the same time.” Just hours earlier, he said, they had been attacked by two Su-25 warplanes, “and our day became hell.”
Skuratovsky had a message for the United States and other NATO countries: “I would like to tell them that grenade launchers are good, but against airstrikes and heavy artillery we will not be able to hold out for long. People can no longer endure daily bombardments. We need air support now. We need drones.”
I feel b´very sorry for these soldiers and curse their leaders who pushed them into this.
Alastair Crooke warns that the 'west' might escalate when it finally recognizes that its proxy war against Russia is lost.
The conviction that the European liberal vision faces humiliation and disdain, were Putin to ‘win’, has taken hold. And in the Obama-Clinton-Deep State nexus, it is unimaginable that Putin and Russia still regarded as the author of Russiagate for many Americans, might prevail.The logic to this conundrum is inexorable – Escalation.
For Biden, whose approval ratings continue to tank, disaster looms in the November mid-terms.
...
The only possible path out from this approaching cataclysm would be for Biden to pull a rabbit from the Ukraine ‘hat’ (one that, at the very least, would distract from soaring inflation). The Neo-cons and the Deep State (but not the Pentagon) are all for it....
I hope that Biden is still competent enough to recognize that any escalation will lead to a much larger war and, in the end, to a much bigger defeat of 'western' forces than the one that will come in Ukraine.
Posted by b on April 25, 2022 at 15:28 UTC | Permalink
next page »A most interesting development.
The Russians are quick learners. Who would have thought the not so bright UAF . Were using all civilian passenger trains. As a cover, to ship military hardware around the country.
Truth is stranger than fiction...............
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Apr 25 2022 15:42 utc | 2
Russians are still not taking this war seriously.
They have to bomb Kiev to oblivion so that there is no one to receive this US aid.
Make Lvov an example.
Get serious!
Posted by: Balkanizer | Apr 25 2022 15:42 utc | 3
@Dean Oneil,
there had been a very big fire with nasty explosions in 2017. Yandex maps shows the site some time afterwards. Google maps are older pics from before. It has been said (Ukrainian Wikipedia), that at the time of the accident 138.000 tons ammo had been present. Hard to say, whether it was repaired and refilled. Likely not that much. And it is not clear how much survived the take over by Russian troops. But 10.000 tons and above is a sure estimate from what has been shown from the visiting journalists.
Posted by: BG13 | Apr 25 2022 15:42 utc | 4
The two points to watch during the next 24 hours (estimated) are the breakout (by the Russians and DPR) in the Donbass => "The pause has finished". The Donbass line may crack.
or
2) The Ukrainian counter-offensive near Kherson, which they have apparently been trying to isolate, and the Russians reinforce.
**
The latter is surely because the sinking of the Moskva has allowed some new arms to be infiltrated into Odessa from Romania, including planes.
Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 25 2022 15:46 utc | 5
They have to bomb Kiev to oblivion so that there is no one to receive this US aid.
Kiev is just fine. Kiev is diverting massive amounts of remaining armor and troops for its "defense", is taking massive amounts of energy, fuel and food just to keep running, and is a giant white elephant for Ukraine. They absolutely can't lose it, but it just eats up resources and doesn't actually help them win the war.
Bombing Kiev before the rest of the country is captured would be utter foolishness.
thanks for the update b!
i agree with oldhippie about these western leaders visiting zelensky in kiev... more likely they are meeting in poland.. it is even in your quote - "Speaking in a hangar in Poland filled with crates of humanitarian aid, including diapers, destined for Ukraine, the top Biden administration officials announced"....
@ stonebird.... thanks for your posts..
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2022 15:59 utc | 7
Dean Oneil | Apr 25 2022 15:32 utc | 1
Maybe the Ukrainian military leadership are surrendering by stealth. If they have no weapons they must surrender. And now, hey presto, they have no weapons.
Posted by: Michael Thomas | Apr 25 2022 16:05 utc | 8
I read a lot of analysis of tactical and operational action, but could someone recommend a site that publishes maps making it possible to visualize summaries of the past day or past week of operations? I know sometimes the fog of war is impenetrable, but sometimes there's enough clarity to learn something.
I'd like to study the decisions, and without maps showing before/during/after it's hard to get much out of it. Many maps don't have enough info or verbal context to really learn much from. Any recommendations would be welcome.
Thanks.
Posted by: Hickory | Apr 25 2022 16:05 utc | 9
@ Hickory | Apr 25 2022 16:05 utc | 9
since the beginning of all this, i have been copying and pasting into google maps, the names of the places mentioned... over the course of this time i have formulated a better perspective, but i agree with you, having maps outlining much of this would be very helpful.. i don't know of any...
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2022 16:07 utc | 10
The recent video of a long fuel tank train entering Ukraine indicates that the Russians will need to fully interdict the rail network to prevent refueling of Ukrainian military vehicles. It is clear that the US/NATO powers are willing to spend vast sums on keeping Ukraine in the fight, so the Russians will have to be more effective in preventing resupply.
Posted by: HH | Apr 25 2022 16:08 utc | 11
Crates of Humanitarian Diapers for the babies. Such kindness. How thoughtful of the top Biden officials. Goo Goo.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Apr 25 2022 16:08 utc | 12
The Ukraine ultra-nationalist forces and foreign mercs will last only as long as the self-interested oligarch's paychecks keep coming - and a lot of that seems to have disappeared in the last month. The Ukrainian Hryvnia continues to crash against the USD and RUB this week despite massive intervention by the west to prop it up. The average Ukrainian isn't going to keep dying to fend of Russia if their families are eating cat food under a bridge somewhere. And now cat food is getting scarce. Remember: only the better-off Ukrainians (including their military-aged males) were able to flee the country and are *never* coming back. Only the poor and those dependent on government aid or pensions are still there because they *can't* leave.
Putin never intended to take out Zelenski or cause the collapse of the Ukrainian government. He needs someone on their side to negotiate with and run the place. Zelenski will bail out in a few weeks, leaving the various Nazi factions to fight among themselves to decide who will run Ukraine. The 'new' government will have little popular support, so it will have to go full Gestapo/Cheka to keep starving Ukrainians and angry army units in line. The West's answer will be a massive humanitarian aid effort, turning Ukraine into Yemen 2.0:
"You want some food? We need your biometric ID data to make sure you're not cheating (and to identify those of questionable loyalty to the Ukraine government"
I'm guessing the US/NATO will create some kind of useless caretaker government in exile and finance a guerilla war for eternity in the former Ukraine to take back 'the stolen lands'. Mission accomplished!
Posted by: PavewayIV | Apr 25 2022 16:14 utc | 13
China is closely studying Russia's action against the Ukraine.
Taiwanese loyalists are also closely watching what is happening.
Many of those Taiwanese loyalists are simply men who want their country to maintain its standard of living--they are men who fear the political culling that they experienced following WWII, after the Guomindang took control of the island.
The fear is justified. The reprisals are likely to be sloppy.
None of this, which i have just stated, is intended to plead away the CIA and NSA involvement in Taiwan's threat to China.
Taiwan is a threat to China, because it feeds the world's largest SIGINT station, aimed at China, from within a mountain dug out by US Five-eye-employed engineers.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 25 2022 16:15 utc | 14
Do we know for certain that Zelensky is physically in Ukraine?
Posted by: John Kirsch | Apr 25 2022 16:16 utc | 15
Stonebird @5--
The Moskva was essentially acting as a radar pickett and AD platform. I would think its duties have already been taken up by another vessel. The recent Saker Sitrep by Nightvision has good details about those duties. Furthermore, IMO it's beyond clear that Moskva was damaged by one of two means--mines placed on its keel or internal explosion either sabotage or organic. Clearly, all pics show damage wasn't caused by missiles or drones. The position of the radar array contradicts the Ukrainian tale. Some have speculated that if Russia determines it was a NATO act Russia will retaliate directly at NATO. But that logic goes awry when we know NATO's directly supplying Ukraine with arms and technical assistance that renders NATO a belligerent and thus a legal target. As far as I'm aware, Russia has told NATO of that status.
Supply interdiction will continue. Locomotives are ideal targets for armed drones. IMO, most of the diesel types could be put out of action in a week given the proper effort. The weather forecasts looks very good for the next 10 days, so I'd expect that main 2nd phase offensive to begin.
Incidentally, sending towed artillery pieces, which don't have a great range, is futile. Assuming (!) they arrived in position and deployed, they'd only get a handful of rounds off before Russian counterbattery fire destroys them.
The only artillery the Ukie have left seems to be self-propelled, firing a few rounds then scooting back into hides.
It's so callous: Ukraine has lost. If the "Western community leaders" were sane, they'd stop sending arms and pressure whoever is in charge (e.g. Not Zelensky) to negotiate a peace treaty.
Posted by: JulianJ | Apr 25 2022 16:18 utc | 17
@ PavewayIV | Apr 25 2022 16:14 utc | 13 - quote
"I'm guessing the US/NATO will create some kind of useless caretaker government in exile and finance a guerilla war for eternity in the former Ukraine to take back 'the stolen lands'. Mission accomplished!"
that is the pattern for anyone who has been watching the past 20 years or longer..
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2022 16:19 utc | 18
Posted by: Hickory | Apr 25 2022 16:05 utc | 9
Defense Politics Asia has been posting maps and some commentary almost daily since the start of the conflict.
Posted by: the pessimist | Apr 25 2022 16:23 utc | 19
In order to preserve Zelenskyy, it would be sensible and wise to keep him out of Ukraine. The green screen video production is obvious. The clothes, haircuts and manicures...He's a ridiculous cartoon.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Apr 25 2022 16:23 utc | 20
many think zelensky is in poland, so the caretaker gov't paveway mentions, is already happening..
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2022 16:26 utc | 21
UKR is/was also getting oil tanker cars by rail from Moldava if the videos are correct (Cassad I think). What is interesting is the the a Russian security headquarters in Transnistria was just hit, also from Cassad's telegram channel. If so, it looks like NATO/UKR is starting to use its fifth column assets and "special ops", so things are ramping up... fifth column assets have a tendency to having the risk of a short shelf life when employed
Posted by: Simplicius | Apr 25 2022 16:32 utc | 22
@PavewayIV #13
I'm guessing the US/NATO will create some kind of useless caretaker government in exileAnd just in time, Juan Guaidó is looking for a new presidential post to fill!
Posted by: CalDre | Apr 25 2022 16:32 utc | 23
Saker reporting that Moldova has been transporting fuel via trains secretly into Ukraine.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 25 2022 16:34 utc | 24
JUST IN: In appreciation for the baby diapers sent to Ukraine by the US, Ukraine is sending Joe Biden a several cases of adult diapers.
Posted by: Rodrigo | Apr 25 2022 16:43 utc | 25
They have to bomb Kiev to oblivion
Posted by: Balkanizer | Apr 25 2022 15:42 utc | 3
No, they don't.
Destroying the capital isn't necessary to accomplish specific objectives announced by the Kremlin. Deploying nuclear armed missiles isn't necessary either. Indeed, conventional arms and strategy have proved sufficient to arrest UAF offensive in Donbas provinces.
The "fall of Kiev" is crazy talk prepared the very first week of RU intervention in UA civil war by US diplomatic corpse that also, ironically, insisted that they didn't know what PUTIN REALLY WANTS. Accordingly, the function of te Anglophone press corpse is to project "the narrative" of Allied total world domination, sealed by every "shock and awe" adventure since the US gratuitously bombed Japan AND Germany back to the stone age.
This crazy talk is attractive to homicidal maniacs lurking online and off who are ordinarily paralyzed by the quiet desperation they inhabit.
Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 25 2022 16:45 utc | 27
some time ago there was a comment with a long list of links to MSM reports, over many past years since Maidan, on Azov and its corrosive presence in Ukraine. Is there a way or can anyone help to locate that post?
Posted by: urblintz | Apr 25 2022 16:47 utc | 28
If casualties are to be minimized, ie any outcome other than the literal to-the-last-capable-UA-conscript entering, then a shutdown of Ukrainian heavy transport infrastructure would be logical. Even if this is properly done, it's still going to be a long slog. There are no more "off ramps" for a while. There is enough mass of people and equipment accumulated to go into the fall.
Both the Zelensky government and their sponsors have shown only a strategy of suicidal escalation so far. It would therefore be prudent to expect continuing escalations and/or attempts, along the lines of attacking nearby RF targets like Bryansk. These ware certain to eventually draw a less restrained "strategic" response vs UA infrastructure. It can only make the refugee situation worse, with unclear consequences for the adjacent EU countries.
Posted by: ptb | Apr 25 2022 16:52 utc | 29
RF it’s playing chess 100x100 place chessboard , so nobody knows what else going to happen. Guys just keep doing that good job of your work!! You are in it on behalf of *real free countries *!!
Posted by: BB Rad | Apr 25 2022 16:57 utc | 30
@ PavewayIV | Apr 25 2022 16:14 utc | 13 - quote
"I'm guessing the US/NATO will create some kind of useless caretaker government in exile and finance a guerilla war for eternity in the former Ukraine to take back 'the stolen lands'. Mission
accomplished!"
-------------
Imo,things have developed to the point of no return now.
Russia's SMO will develop further,to include the capture of the entire Ukraine at its own pace.It will flush the Nationalists through the Polish boarder as it pushes west.It will then be free to install its control in running the country while it completes de-nazification and fortifies Ukraine (Russia).This will also fortify Belarus leaving only the western boarder of Balarus exposed.It can never trust the West again.
Posted by: Kim | Apr 25 2022 16:58 utc | 31
Using the more or less reliable MoD figures Ukraine has lost 20% of its army killed wounded or captured. Counting every soldier killed by artillery or missile is entirely not possible. There is no count of deserters. There is no count of would be deserters shot by the punishers. The offensive now beginning will take at least another 20%. Any normal army would be surrendering about now.
Look at MSM and it is all about how Ukraine is winning and Russia humiliated. Even Mariupol is a win for Ukraine. There should be a point where this farce falls apart. Maybe not, maybe scriptwriters are all that is needed in modern warfare.
As western Ukraine figures out they will not be left alone should they continue to play games the population will be leaving. We shall create a desert and call it peace.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 25 2022 16:59 utc | 32
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 25 2022 16:15 utc | 14
You forgot to mention that this SIGINT station was paid for by Taiwan 100% for everything, including US "consultant" fees, but Taiwan won't be permitted by the US to have access to raw data. Taiwan only gets US deemed necessary second-hand analysis.
Next time when you write things about this, try to be more thorough. Selective writing is considered lying in this day and age, because people know.
One more suggestion, Ms. (or Mr. hard to tell) Tsai needs to learn from Zelensky, under coke or not, to stay in Taipei, capital building or bunker hill cave. THAT is a good example to learn when China lands Taiwan. Don't go to a US aircraft carrier, bad example.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Apr 25 2022 17:06 utc | 33
It is absolutely clear that Ukraine cannot avoid defeat. The greater danger is that Biden and his political handlers cannot accept another military humiliation after the one in Afghanistan, especially with mid-term elections looming. This raises the possibility of escalation on the part of the West, including direct involvement of Western forces and even the use of tactical nuclear weapons (which the Queen of Darkness Nuland has hinted at). I do not think that the combined West can defeat Russia in a conventional war, but the risk of nuclear escalation should not be taken lightly. Sadly, there is virtually no anti-war movement in the United States and very little anti-war discourse outside of a few small, independent blogs and websites.
What puzzles me most is how Ukraine acquiesces in its own destruction. Do its leaders believe that their reward will be in heaven or Miami Beach? Do they have no concern for the tens of thousands of their countrymen who will be killed and the millions more who will be reduced to poverty or emigration, all to satisfy the lust for power and money by Western elites?
Posted by: Rob | Apr 25 2022 17:10 utc | 34
Alastair Crooke seems convinced that escalation is in the cards, "The Dynamics of Escalation: ‘Standing With Ukraine’", as Crooke examines the appetites within the Outlaw US Empire and EU for such a policy:
The eschew escalation presents such a challenge to the American missionary psyche of global leadership that momentum for it may not be overcome through Biden’s innate caution alone. The Washington Post already is reporting that “the Biden Administration is shrugging off fresh Russian warnings against providing Ukrainian forces with more advanced arms and new training – in what appears to be a calculated risk Moscow won’t escalate the war”.The EU élites, by contrast, are not just persuaded (Hungary and one faction in Germany, apart) by the logic of escalation, they are frankly intoxicated by it. At the Munich Conference in February, it was as if the EU leaders were intent on out-bidding each other in their enthusiasm for war: Josep Borrell re-confirmed his commitment to a military solution in Ukraine: “Yes, normally wars have been won or lost on the battlefield”, he said upon arrival for a meeting of the EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, when asked to comment on his previous statement that “this war will be won on the battlefield”.
Their euphoria is centred around the belief that the EU – for the first time – is wielding its economic power in a globally significant way, and, at the same time, enabling and arming a proxy war against Russia (through imagining the EU as a real Carolingian empire, actually winning on the battlefield!).
The euphoria of the EU élites – so completely de-coupled from national identities and local interests, and loyal rather to a cosmopolitan vision in which men and women of consequence network endlessly amongst themselves and bask in their peer approval – is opening deep polarisation within their own societies.
Crooke's examination of the domestic political risks within the Empire IMO is quite good given the impossibility of the current narrative's success. If NATO escalates, Russia will be ready and waiting. In fact, Russia might be baiting NATO to make just such a foolish move as that would give it all the justification it requires to sweep NATO from its doorstep and even cause it to collapse. It appears NATO hasn't considered that if it escalates, the battlefield then becomes all of Europe, Canada and the USA. And most here will recall that Putin has already issued Russia's warning about the consequences.
Basically it is obvious that Russian tactics is slow morale attrition fight. Kill all the fighting elements (most stubborn ones) in the east, let the whole Ukie civilian population find out who is actually using them and killing them as shield.
Then, after majority of Ukie nazis and hardliners are eliminated, the rest and sympathetic population will be very demoralized for open fighting.
What happens after that, who knows. Occupation of whole Ukraine and cleanup of nazi elements. Maybe only taking over of eastern part. Definitely incorporating pro Russian east in separate state.
Posted by: Abe | Apr 25 2022 17:16 utc | 36
Posted by: the pessimist | Apr 25 2022 16:23 utc | 19
Thanks for the link
Posted by: CalDre | Apr 25 2022 16:32 utc | 23
LOL
Posted by: jo6pac | Apr 25 2022 17:32 utc | 37
Rob @34--
What we're seeing is conclusive evidence that Ukraine isn't being run by Ukrainians but by CIA and State Dept flunkies who've actually been in control since 2014. Putin has already confirmed Outlaw US Empire/NATO policy is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. Russia's clearly doing what it can to negate that policy but overcoming almost four generations of OUN genocidal Russophobia nurtured by the CIA is making that task difficult. There's too much evidence of intensive indoctrination of that dogma throughout Ukraine's military, not just the Nazi units, that's making it very hard for Ukrainian soldiers to save themselves.
Russians need to take out, one by one, all western "advisors" to Ukrainian zio-Nazis and do that in an inconspicuous manner. Time to denude the so-called "intelligence services" of their more or less able operatives, since pampered princes of the upper echelon of the CIA/MI6 are hopelessly incompetent by design.
Posted by: Cerena | Apr 25 2022 17:37 utc | 39
It pains me to say this, but I wonder whether one or the other commenter on here ever strays into the other side - because the ignorance of the actual hatred and obsession with destruction all things Russian is so pervasive amongst many eastern European countries, the hope for a quick collapse of the Ukraine is completely misplaced. I am almost certain that Russian leadership was equally delusional when they started this special operation - and it cost them dearly in men and material. I believe military history will not be kind for this blunder.
It appears Russia is finally toughening their stance, and they are changing to pursue a scorched earth policy on many of the targets that they should have destroyed on day one. They have no choice, it might have been a noble idea to go light, but in the end, war is messy, destructive and won by whoever swings the bigger hammer more forcefully - never mind going soft was misinterpreted as being weak. This war will get a lot uglier before its over.
Posted by: Peter Camenzind | Apr 25 2022 17:37 utc | 40
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 17:15 utc | 35
People need to realize,Russia wouldn't have started its SMO without calculating Nato's direct involvement.
Russia is defending its very existence and its prepared for this War for probably 10 years.
Nato,has already entered into War with Russia.
Russia is ready for escalation by Nato but I believe will wait for Nato to enter Ukraine then respond.
Posted by: Kim | Apr 25 2022 17:40 utc | 41
"some time ago there was a comment with a long list of links to MSM reports, over many past years since Maidan, on Azov and its corrosive presence in Ukraine. Is there a way or can anyone help to locate that post?"
Posted by: urblintz | Apr 25 2022 16:47 utc | 28
Here ya go -- with some additions of my own to the list. Those entries with asterisks that I added at the front indicate major news outlets:
//
The Mighty Wurlitzer Does an About-Face on Ukrainian Nazis
Posted by: Will 198 3-22-22
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/bits-of-interest-from-the-war-in-ukraine/comments/page/2/#comments
It's like all the media forgot that they themselves were reporting on the neo-Nazi's in Ukraine as far back as eight years ago. In fact, it’s like all the MSM (*) outlets were told what to say back then, and what precisely opposite things to say now.
EUROPEAN "JUSTICE"
The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg ignored ALL 689 COMPLAINTS filed against Kiev for its slow motion killing of more than 14,000 civilians in the Luhansk People’s Republic in the past 8 years.
Luhansk ombudswoman Victoria Serdyukova
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/06/14/us-house-admits-nazi-role-ukraine
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-neo-nazi-question-in_b_4938747
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-heartbreaking-irony-of-winter-on-fire/tnamp/
(*) https://www.cnn.com/2014/03/06/opinion/speedie-ukraine-far-right/index.html
(*) https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/18/yes-there-are-bad-guys-in-the-ukrainian-government/
(*) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis
(*) https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/analysis-u-s-cozies-kiev-government-including-far-right-n66061
https://www.rferl.org/a/azov-ukraine-s-most-prominent-ultranationalist-group-sets-its-sights-on-u-s-europe/29600564.html
(*) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27173857
(*) https://www.salon.com/2014/02/25/is_the_us_backing_neo_nazis_in_ukraine_partner/
(*) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
https://fair.org/home/denying-the-far-right-role-in-the-ukrainian-revolution/
(*) https://www.channel4.com/news/svoboda-ministers-ukraine-new-government-far-right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpV16BQfbrQ
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/americas-collusion-with-neo-nazis/
(*) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
(*) https://thehill.com/opinion/international/359609-the-reality-of-neo-nazis-in-the-ukraine-is-far-from-kremlin-propaganda
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/
(*) https://www.thedailybeast.com/is-america-training-neonazis-in-ukraine
(*) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/10/ukraine-azov-brigade-nazis-abuses-separatists/24664937/
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/
//
And then there’s this list (some duplications)
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-msms-ukraine-amnesia?s=r
The Hill - The reality of neo-Nazis in Ukraine is far from Kremlin propaganda
Time - How a White-Supremacist Militia Uses Facebook to Radicalize and Train New Members
USA Today - 15,000 Ukraine nationalists march for divisive Bandera
New Republic - Fascism returns to the continent it once destroyed
NBC - German TV Shows Nazi Symbols on Helmets of Ukraine Soldiers
Foreign Policy - Yes, There Are Bad Guys in the Ukrainian Government
CNN - Rein in Ukraine’s neo-fascists
NBC - U.S. Cozies Up to Kiev Government Including Far Right
Salon - Is the US backing neo-Nazis in Ukraine?
Reuters - Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem
BBC - Ukraine's ultra-nationalist Right Sector
BBC - Ukraine conflict: 'White power' warrior from Sweden
Foreign Policy - Preparing for War With Ukraine’s Fascist Defenders of Freedom
The Guardian - Ultranationalism in Ukraine – a photo essay
Huffington Post - The Neo-Nazi Question in Ukraine
The Nation - The Heartbreaking Irony of ‘Winter on Fire’
The Guardian - Azov fighters are Ukraine's greatest weapon and may be its greatest threat
The Nation - America’s Collusion With Neo-Nazis
The Nation - Neo-Nazis and the Far Right Are On the March in Ukraine
USA Today - Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis
Foreign Policy - There’s One Far-Right Movement That Hates the Kremlin
Aljazeera - Who are Ukraine’s far-right Azov regiment?
Daily Beast - Is America Training Neonazis in Ukraine?
Radio Free Europe - In Ukraine, Ultranationalist Militia Strikes Fear In Some Quarters
Channel 4 - How the far-right took top posts in Ukraine’s power vacuum
Radio Free Europe - Azov, Ukraine's Most Prominent Ultranationalist Group, Sets Its Sights On U.S., Europe
NBC - Ukraine's Hyper-Nationalist Military Summer Camp for Kids
Posted by: AntiSpin | Apr 25 2022 17:43 utc | 42
@all
I have updated the piece above with links and quotes from two new pieces that were published today.
Apparently plans are already being laid to remove Zelensky once the hot war comes to a close.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-21/ukraine-after-war/
Like other FA articles by neocon/neoliberal Melinda Haring, the article begins with the same nonsensical rhetoric, war propaganda and nonsense – written to prove her neocon loyalty and to urge Congress so to keep the arms flowing because Ukraine is winning based on Ukraine’s propaganda. So confident in this outcome, Haring urges that planning begin now for post-war reconstruction using neoliberalism as a model. To promote this, she unabashedly states the "invasion may well provide an opportunity for the democratic and economic leap forward that Ukraine has never been able to realize" – just like those invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya created such opportunities. And apparently this post-war planning includes getting rid of Zelensky and installing Western puppets to direct their economy and Ukrainian courts. Sounds like 2004 Bagdad to me. To set the stage for installing these puppets, she begins by criticizing Zelensky without naming him: "Before the war, the country was hampered by terrible governance" then goes on to acknowledge Zelensky for “his physical courage and bravery but also for his defiant and soaring rhetoric” that his CIA handlers feed him. But she quickly follows this faint praise of Zelensky with: "Kyiv must avoid putting heroic but inexperienced war heroes in charge of the reconstruction process." Clearly she is setting up the justification for removal of Zelensky after the war. Furthermore, she declares that a non-Ukrainian is needed to manage the Ukraine economy, along with a private (corporate controlled) court system run by foreign judges. She closes her fantasy government by invoking Mikheil Saakashvili as a model politician, the gangster and corrupt con-artist who fled from Georgia and then from Ukraine followed by corruption charges.
Posted by: James | Apr 25 2022 17:48 utc | 44
@ 28; This article from 2018 shows a clear presence of Nazis in Ukraine. With the U$A's clear involvement.
Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 25 2022 17:53 utc | 45
In his visit to D.C., the Ukrainian central bank governor said his country needs 7 Billions $ a month to keep going. How much of that will be skimmed in the process by the hairy hands of the numerous middle men?
Posted by: Alx | Apr 25 2022 17:54 utc | 46
https://turcopolier.com/horse-foot-and-guns/
Are Pat and b writing about the same war?
Here is part of the article at SST:
"Now, the situation has changed dramatically. Major Russian maneuver units have been all but destroyed, The Russians are reduced to employing second or third-rate troops and leaders as well as foreign auxiliaries acquired in earlier campaigns and outright mercenaries who are presumably the household troops of some warlord.
The objective and psychological situations cry out for a decisive assumption of the offensive by Ukraine."
Thoughts?
Posted by: morongobill | Apr 25 2022 18:04 utc | 47
ref comment number 1 [video]
opening shells are all used.
ammo boxes looked to have been opened [returned empty]
size of bunker [shown] impossible to store 100,000 tons of munitions.
looks just returned used or faulty equipment.
Posted by: duggie | Apr 25 2022 18:07 utc | 48
"especially for people who have fled towards the west and now have less transport available to return home."
Is there any evidence of this occurring? My impression from over here under your moon is that the Ukrainians have finally achieved a major goal of the last 10 years, which is full, open-border access into the holy land of milk and honey known as the EU.
I thus see millions of blondes heading west, seeking their fortunes, but are there really many who want to go east and 'return home'?
It will take a few years of low-paid, dangerous, dirty jobs for immigrants, combined with the natural superiority complexes of the Europeans, to get a number of Ukrainians wanting to return home from the EU. Being looked down upon as 'not being from here' while cleaning their toilets eventually gets old, but that takes a bit of time for that realization to sink in when you've been told for years that the EU was the promised land by the lying politicians in Ukraine.
Posted by: John Henry | Apr 25 2022 18:15 utc | 50
I read the words of a "volunteer/mercenary" who had a change of heart...He learned that if engaging Russians in squad combat for longer than 10 minutes, artillery rain would begin to fall! Take the exit quickly...
Posted by: donten | Apr 25 2022 18:17 utc | 51
New version of "free speech" from Zelensky land.
"Mykolaiv Oblast Kim announces on live TV channel "Ukraine 24" that citizens who dissent from Kiev will be summarily executed".
****
karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 16:18 utc | 16
Although Moskva may not have had a role beyond defense near Odessa, there are nearly always two spy planes circling in Romania near the Black Sea.
At the moment one is a RC-135W from the UK and the other is a Boeing E-3A Sentry from NATO (just going off station). There may be others not signaled commercially.
Moskva could have been spoiling their electronic spying, rather than just acting passively. (It was about 60 km off Snake island).
Theoretically it was more of a danger to the carrier groups in the Med, with it's specific anti-carrier missiles. Something that smaller ships may not have. ie. The attack was offensive to eliminate a potential threat to the three carrier groups under the NATO/US banner in the East Med.(more if you count the Italians, and the French as well as US and UK.)
****
The continual expansion of the war, first to Russia and now involving Roumania, Moldova and Poland as transits for weapons and mobile armed forces, shows that any attempt to "contain" the fighting is too late if it really takes off. The NATO/US idea of "weakening Russia" without directly being involved is already yesterdays news. There was a twit which I noticed a day ot two ago, that sabotage "specialists-trainers" were observed arriving in Ukraine. These were from the UK (Reputedly). If true, and if they are now directly attacking Russia, then Putin is faced with the unenviable task of deciding when "enough is enough" and the world had better watch out. The stupidity of the EU and US believing their own propagada! It may explain why Putin is said to be so "crisped".
*****
*First the bad news; Estimate for unbelievers; the first 45 minutes of a nuclear war will see 42 million dead.
*The good news is that; Psychic Baba Vanga, who died 25 years ago aged 84, predicted that Russia was to 'dominate the world' in an interview with writer Valentin Sidorov in 1979. She also said there would be a Nuclear war, and "The corona will be all over us.' as well as 9/11. ("The American brethren will fall after being attacked by the steel birds. 'The wolves will be howling in a bush, and innocent blood will be gushing.')
*
Well, I suppose it is "good"??
Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 25 2022 18:23 utc | 52
Posted by: John Henry | Apr 25 2022 18:15 utc | 51
Amusing LDPR MIGRANT OFFENDED BY POLICY TOWARDS UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN GERMANY
Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 25 2022 18:23 utc | 53
@Camenzind # 40
never mind going soft was misinterpreted as being weak. This war will get a lot uglier before its over.They started out wanting to minimize casualties to all sides, including regular UAF forces. So they sent a bunch of quick, unprotected reconnaissance teams, apparently hoping for quick surrenders as happened 8 years earlier in Crimea. Once they realized this was a doomed strategy it seems they still expected a significant portion of the Ukrainian (1/3 to 1/2) forces to surrender, which has also not happened.
So yes they gambled that they could avoid massive loss of life and as a result of losing that gamble lost some propaganda wars and quite a number of fighters.
That does not mean they were wrong to try. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Posted by: CalDre | Apr 25 2022 18:24 utc | 54
@morongobill
Either Pat Lang had an aneurism that changed his views from the Neocons and the "Borg", or he received a visit with an offer he couldn't refuse...
He thrown years of relativity integrity into the trashcan. Sad stuff.
Posted by: Ricardo Ramirez | Apr 25 2022 18:28 utc | 55
My impression from over here under your moon is that the Ukrainians have finally achieved a major goal of the last 10 years, which is full, open-border access into the holy land of milk and honey known as the EU.They are getting into NATO and the EU like they wanted I guess.
Posted by: KS | Apr 25 2022 18:30 utc | 56
Kim @41--
Thanks for your reply. I have no illusions about Russia's superiority over NATO. Since the announcement of Russia's security requirements last December and the obvious fact that NATO wouldn't confess to its breaking all OSCE security treaties, my question has always been: How will Russia make its security requirements reality. That Russia would perform its own version of an R2P operation was plain to me when the conditions of genocide in Donbass were announced in November to which Putin agreed, and I wrote several articles on those topics at my VK page. '
About two weeks ago, Putin said the following:
"Today, the system of the unipolar world that developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union is being destroyed, that's what is most important. The main thing is not even the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and Ukraine, because this is not the main thing. Much is said that the United States is 'ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.' And they say, and we say, in fact, this is how it is. That is the quintessence of the events taking place." [My Emphasis]
Lavrov about the same time said the aim of the SMO is to end the Outlaw US Empire's hegemony.
Those facts ought to have enormous influence on any analysis of the current situation. Furthermore, two other facts must be added to the scales--China/Russia's 4 February Joint Declaration and Xi Jinping's Boao Forum Speech--of the overall Geopolitical equation wherein our Hybrid Third World War's centered. And all that has bearing on Guterres talks with Lavrov tomorrow:
On April 26, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will hold talks with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who will arrive in Moscow on a working visit.The focus will be on issues related to the crisis situation in Ukraine, the DPR and the LPR, which has developed as a result of the eight-year conflict unleashed by Kiev against the population of Donbass. The interlocutor will be informed about the progress of the special military operation carried out by Russia in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. It is also planned to touch upon a number of acute issues on the international agenda, including Syria, Libya and the Middle East settlement.
Particular emphasis will be placed on our unwavering support for the work of the UN and the provisions of its Charter, as well as the central coordinating role of the world Organization in world affairs. In addition, the parties will discuss the possibility of developing productive cooperation between Russia and the UN Secretariat. [My Emphasis]
Somehow a global view of the Big Picture needs to be adopted instead of the Westerncentric POV to which most of us are subjected. However, this Western saying is very apt: Pride goeth before the storm.
...US/UK/NATO/EU will drop-discard-abandon the Ukraine like a used rubber just as they did with Afghanistan.
The goal is the destruction of Russia, Ukraine is being used, they better wake up to who their so called "western friends" really are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-QhzU2Tglw
Posted by: Hannibal | Apr 25 2022 18:38 utc | 58
I hope that Biden is still competent enough to recognize that any escalation will lead to a much larger war and, in the end, to a much bigger loss than the one that will come in Ukraine.
Unfortunately, no sign of such competency
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 25 2022 18:39 utc | 59
Am i the only one that cannot access strategic-culture? Is it a European censorship thing? Before I read Alistair Crooke every week.
Posted by: tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 60
@tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 61
I can access it just fine
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 25 2022 18:48 utc | 61
re: morongobill | Apr 25 2022 18:04 utc | 48
I haven't been to that site in a while but had to check to see if Pat was out of the hospital and actually cut and pasted that opinion. It's his all right and not TTGs. He castigated me some time back in a personal Email where I complimented him on his book but apparently did not grovel sufficiently to sate his ego. He felt my comment was not appreciative enough of all the "Blood he's had to wade through" to protect my worthless life or words to that effect. That is the point at which I realized that as we grow older our body is not the only thing that can rot or go bad. I used to value his opinion on world affairs but no more. He has often said that you never really leave the service. The 'service' is obviously still pulling his strings. I may go back in a couple weeks to see what he thinks after 50,000 UA troops have died to protect my worthless life and the rest are prisoners.
Posted by: Anonymouse | Apr 25 2022 18:48 utc | 62
Am i the only one that cannot access strategic-culture? Is it a European censorship thing? Before I read Alistair Crooke every week.Posted by: tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 61
Flyover-state USA here, and all I get, ever since the server migration, is "connection timed out." Not even clearing the cache and installing a new browser helps. Guess it's time for a VPN!
Ominously, I've also noticed that the video links in the RT story about the Tiraspol attack are also now banned: "This channel can't be displayed because it violated local laws." First time I've seen that.
Posted by: malenkov | Apr 25 2022 18:52 utc | 63
Chaka Khagan | Apr 25 2022 16:08 utc | 12
Crates of Humanitarian Diapers for the babies. Such kindness.
Are they really diapers? Remember Serena Shim showing how Turkish Intelligence smuggled arms into Syria packaged as humanitarian aid? Remember the Chechen forces discovering wads of dollars packed into crates with Red Cross humanitarian aid labels when they took bunkers in outskirts of Mariupol?
Posted by: cirsium | Apr 25 2022 19:04 utc | 64
Rob | Apr 25 2022 17:10 utc | 34
"It is absolutely clear that Ukraine cannot avoid defeat. The greater danger is that Biden and his political handlers cannot accept another military humiliation after the one in Afghanistan, especially with mid-term elections looming. This raises the possibility of escalation on the part of the West, including direct involvement of Western forces and even the use of tactical nuclear weapons. I do not think that the combined West can defeat Russia in a conventional war, but the risk of nuclear escalation should not be taken lightly."
And yet most here believe Russia has the luxury of infinite time.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Apr 25 2022 19:05 utc | 65
Stonebird @53--
Thanks for your reply! Putin the Judokan and Shoigu the Chessman along with other Chessmen, IMO, have planned and scenarioed the script the EU/NATO/Outlaw US Empire are following because their actions are very predictable, and we shouldn't leave China out of the discussion. Given the actions of those NATO members of Russia's Near Abroad, Russia has a pathway to securing its security minimums. And the last six months have proven beyond doubt that European citizens have no agency when it comes to their interests to the point where they're essentially captured/enslaved by unaccountable elites and a foreign empire. Russia will act in a manner that does its best to promote the hoi polloi's interests while ridding the impediments to its security.
As the rest of the year unfolds, we'll see how that occurs.
[email protected]
Strategic Culture is back here, in Ontario, since last night. I get the feeling though that at any moment it and anything else I read, could be gone. And MoA too.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 25 2022 19:08 utc | 67
Posted by b on April 25, 2022 at 15:28 UTC |
I hope that Biden is still competent enough to recognize that any escalation will lead to a much larger war and, in the end, to a much bigger loss than the one that will come in Ukraine.
A much bigger loss for whom?
Your article suggests wholesale destruction of soon to be Russian territories. Add in the human cost, the economic demolition, the ill will, and I'm left wondering why this prospect should somehow come as a caution for the US?
Just to state the obvious, America is an ocean away and there is absolutely no historic precedent to suggest it could show the least bit of empathy for Ukraine as a nation and its people. Nor for anyone else, for that matter.
The way I see it, the Empire is playing a zero sum great game and it has compelled its adversary into scoring an own goal.
Posted by: robin | Apr 25 2022 19:16 utc | 68
@ karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 18:37 utc | 58
KJB Proverbs 16:18: “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall."
BTW, I very much appreciate your efforts and POV at MoA.
Posted by: majoab | Apr 25 2022 19:17 utc | 71
Posted by: PavewayIV | Apr 25 2022 16:14 utc | 13
I'm guessing the US/NATO will create some kind of useless caretaker government in exile and finance a guerilla war for eternity in the former Ukraine to take back 'the stolen lands'. Mission accomplished!I assume by 'Mission Accomplished' you meant NATO's goal of harassing Russia is achieved. I disagree. One of Russia's main intentions is to stop NATO from encroaching into its neighborhood. NATO supporting a guerilla warfare in a Ukraine is just a nuisance to Russia, nowhere near being a security threat. Therefore, Russia's goal of keeping NATO further west of Ukraine is accomplished. Russia can deal with terrorist type flareups launched by the Nazis. It's Ukrainians who would suffer, economically and physical safety wise, in such a scenario.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 25 2022 19:23 utc | 72
If it had been the USA, we'd have destroyed all civil infrastructure (powerplants, railroad and major road bridges) before even crossing the border. The Russians were most likely trying to be less cruel, probably hoping a few skirmishes and neutralizing air defenses would persuade the Ukraine leadership that the jig was up and they'd "come to their senses" and accede to russian demands for cessation of hostilities in the Donbas and recognition of D&L independence.. This was naive of them; I suppose they still just viewed the Donbas situation as just another family quarrel.. They probably could have done it that way in 2015, but not after all these years of NATO (American) coaching.
Now the Russians are going to have to up the game, to knock out all the rail links across rivers, especially the Dnieper, and to knock out power plants and high voltage long range transmission facilities. Once Kiev and major urban centers go dark and bulk freight transport stops, the Ukrainian govt. will have its illusions shaken. It's very hard to convince people you're winning when you can't keep the lights on and supplies to front line formations stop arriving.
Posted by: erik | Apr 25 2022 19:28 utc | 73
does Biden's competence even matter--is he running the show? i just hope whoever is is reality based, cause otherwise escalation is very much possible.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 25 2022 19:37 utc | 74
robin | Apr 25 2022 19:16 utc | 69
Hypersonic Missiles explained by Gordog
Posted by: donten | Apr 25 2022 19:38 utc | 75
I don't believe in so called Nato escalation, infact it's the opposite,it's the RF that can employ escalation dominance in NATO weak points such as Baltshit colonies and render NATO itself obsolete.Ask yourself regardless all the barking and posturing they do,will the cosmopolitan elites risk nuclear war over economic peripheries?
Posted by: Lolgege | Apr 25 2022 19:39 utc | 76
b - thanks for the update..
@ Stonebird | Apr 25 2022 18:23 utc | 53 - thanks as well..
@ erik | Apr 25 2022 19:28 utc | 74
one of many problems with your theories and views as an example - you think 'the ukrainian gov't will have it's illusions shaken' - lol... when the ukee gov't is being run by the cia, there ain't no illusions to shake! it was so naive of russia to think this way!! lol... but the naivety is in the folks who think they know what russia thinks!
i will make a point of only responding to one crazy comment per thread... i can't do anymore!
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2022 19:41 utc | 77
@72 majoab | Apr 25 2022 19:17 utc
Thank you, I had never heard the full quotation.
At the risk of being whimsical, one could almost say that the proverb warns of two degrees of error: the "lesser" mistake of a haughty spirit will result in a fall from status, while the even greater mistake of a fixed pride can only end in destruction (if we say that pride fixes on concretized things, while a haughty spirit need not be quite so targeted).
Allowing those equivalences between those two positions and their inevitable corrections, one could say that Europe is escalating itself from the lesser to the greater mistake.
In plain terms, Europe's general attitude of disdain and its self-wounding through embargoes of its necessary imports will result in its greater impoverishment, and a fall in its hauteur (as it begs Russia for critical supplies). But when it comes to shipping weapons and other more material aspects of intruding into this war, it faces destruction of its border security as a distinct possibility.
~~
Europe thinks that it can wage a war against Russia through a proxy, Ukraine, and remain untouched, but may in fact push the war to widen and spill outside of the Ukraine soon, as the shipments increase and the hubris and braggadocio reach boiling point.
And this will be just as the US plans for its true proxy, Europe, and as Russia has gamed all along. The war against Russia was long ago started by NATO and Russia will end it when NATO is pushed back to its 1997 borders. This will inevitably involve European losses to the west of Ukraine.
And as karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 18:37 utc @58 cautions, the larger picture gives the more accurate understanding of this conflict, which is only apparently local.
I'm quite sure that Russia has that big picture. Putin explained it all in February at the very beginning.
Posted by: Grieved | Apr 25 2022 19:45 utc | 78
Posted by: Lolgege | Apr 25 2022 19:39 utc | 77
they risked nuclear nuclear war over USSR missiles in Cuba, rather than simply negotiate with the USSR to remove the missiles in Turkey. that was completely unnecessary, but it was a great political opportunity to look tough on communism. at least some of the people who run the US are batshit insane.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 25 2022 19:46 utc | 79
Meanwhile I guess Poland is being set up as the next NATO domino.
Just how many pentagon financed CBW development stations are in place and how many being installed?
I guess NATO would be busy filling more arsenals there too if there was any ammo available.
The Russian proposal for a mutual security treaty and the restoration of 1997 NATO boundaries is looking better every day.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 25 2022 19:57 utc | 80
The Green Party (US) is split.
Some support the Nazis (though they wouldn't express it that way).
The Presidential candidate from 2020 is in the latter camp (!!!).
Here is a Statement from the non-Nazi wing of the Green Party (US):
Statement on Western Imperialism and the Conflict in Ukraine
The Green Party Peace Action Committee (GPAX) views the conflict in Ukraine as the tragic, yet inevitable, result of relentless effort by the U.S., NATO, and the European Union for global economic, political, and military dominance. Within this context, the current conflict stems from the 2014 US-backed coup of Ukraine’s democratically elected government – and in the determination of the U.S./EU/NATO to convert Ukraine, whose government recently stated its intention to acquire nuclear weapons, into a heavily militarized NATO member nation located on the border of the Russian Federation.
NATO’s expansion has been a pressing security concern for Russia since 1998, when the U.S. govt. inaugurated the formal process of growing NATO’s membership to include former nations of the Warsaw Pact – Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. NATO expansion into Eastern Europe has been carried out, not only in violation of a pledge – made by Secretary of State James A. Baker to then-Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 – that NATO would not expand one inch eastward with the end of the Cold War, but also in violation of subsequent treaties in which the U.S. and its allies committed to respect the security concerns of other countries, including the Russian Federation.
Today, as the conflict escalates, NATO’s aggressive expansion has become an existential threat to all oppressed and colonized people around the world. A similar effort to expand is occurring in Latin America with the use of Colombia and Brazil as U.S. proxies against Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Also, in the African continent, regime change is enacted through AFRICOM funding and training. For peace to arrive in these regions and in the world, NATO and AFRICOM must be dismantled.
For GPAX, peace is not merely the absence of conflict. Peace means a world liberated from militarism, nuclear proliferation, imperialism and unjust war, patriarchy, and white supremacy. The resurgence and celebration of Nazism in Ukraine, as well as in the West, demonstrates that the global consolidation of xenophobia and racism, especially white supremacy, is an integral part of imperialism.
For GPAX, peace also means: dismantling the military-industrial complex and all intelligence agencies that engage in covert warfare & that subject U.S. citizens to unconstitutional surveillance for “anti-government” views; nationalizing the oil & gas industries that realize windfall profits from contrived world shortages (i.e. oil/gas from Iran, Venezuela and Russia are restricted); abolishing illegal unilateral economic sanctions that kill and cause untold suffering to the people of targeted countries; and nationalizing the Federal Reserve system – that funnels stolen & frozen foreign assets to select member banks which misuse these illicit funds in the repurchasing market to realize extraordinary profit. Witness what’s happening with Afghanistan’s assets, more than 20 years after the U.S. first invaded.
The only way to end war is to end corporate profiteering!
Bloated “defense” budgets must be reinvested into education, health and childcare, housing, and a people centered Green New Deal. While we grieve for the current loss of life in Ukraine, we also mourn over 14,000 deaths in Eastern Ukraine caused over the last 8 years by the Ukrainian military armed heavily by the U.S. We also mourn hundreds of thousands of deaths in Somalia, Yemen, and in every nation suffering because of NATO provoked wars and armed conflicts. We offer our unwavering solidarity with all victims of imperialism.
To secure the interests of the Russian and Ukrainian people, there must be good faith negotiations between the Russian Federation, representatives of the peoples of Donbas, and the Ukraine. The EU and the U.S. must end their continuous shipments of arms and other “lethal aid” to Ukraine. The 2015 Minsk agreements, signed by both Ukraine and Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and approved by the UN Security Council in 2015, offer one formula for a diplomatic solution to the conflict that would satisfy the aspirations of the peoples of the Donbass for autonomy from the current Ukrainian government.
It was only after the Ukrainian government’s shelling of Eastern Ukraine, in violation of the Minsk agreement – which was confirmed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) – that Russia, in mid-February, withdrew its support. The conflict in Ukraine has exposed the destructive effects of imperialism: war, racism, and militarism, which continually result in the unjust and anti-democratic redistribution & concentration of capital. Our demand for peace requires an end to U.S. imperialism and its implementation by NATO and other U.S. military alliances.
Posted by: librul | Apr 25 2022 19:59 utc | 81
majoab @72--
Thanks for your reply and correction.
On NATO Escalation: This is already happening via the shipments of arms and monies and technical support like intel. Attempting to increase the flow of arms is ultimately futile as most will be destroyed--plus--such gifts deplete the armories of NATO members thus degrading their readiness levels & defensive capabilities. IMO, at some point a NATO member will send its own military into the conflict in a manner different from NATO trainers and special ops that already confer belligerent status on NATO making them legal target for Russia. I'm sure such things will be pointed out to Guterres when he talks with Lavrov tomorrow, and most certainly when he meets with Putin. (At present, it's not clear if there'll be two separate meetings or just one.)
@Posted by: librul | Apr 25 2022 19:59 utc | 82
Should have added that the Green Party candidate in 2020
is in favor of sending heavy military supplies to Zelensky.
Posted by: librul | Apr 25 2022 20:04 utc | 83
The comments about this landmark Kyiv visit have been all from the US about its actions, and almost nothing about or by the Ukraine president.
Blinken, at the press meeting: "I would say that, without putting words in his mouth, President Zelenskyy expressed deep appreciation for President Biden’s leadership and for the incredible generosity and support of the American people." . . That's it.
In today's Kyiv Post there is no report about the supposed meeting, and no comments from the usually garrulous Zelenskiy, nor by any of the other Ukraine officials who were at the supposed meeting including Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and others.
Oldhippie had some thoughts on this:
I’ll believe any of these events have occurred in Kiev when I see photos of the planes touching down, diplomats walking down stairs, being greeted, motorcade into city. Instead we see photos of meeting room that could be anywhere and not much else. Why the charade? How long do they imagine they can sustain the charade?
Oldhippie | Apr 25 2022 14:33 utc | 188
from the presser:
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Happy to start. In terms of what we saw, we took a train into Kyiv from [southeastern] Poland* so didn’t see a lot except looking out the train windows on our way in. And in Kyiv itself, we went right to the presidential palace.
*He had to be corrected, it wasn't southwestern Poland according to the story.
The US contingent supposedly traveled by train from Poland to Kyiv, three hundred miles or so. That's a nine hour trip.. Here's a photo of the recent meeting in Kyiv. It looks like Z's little head over there on the right was photo-shopped.
And why didn't Zelenskyy do his march through the square Boris Johnson thing, with his masters?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 25 2022 20:12 utc | 84
I was thinking at some point in time Russia would have to knock out most of the railway bridges, but they take some time to rebuild once the war is over plus the materials cannot be transported by rail.
With this move though, Russia can have all the necessary components for the substations ready to go, then transport them to site using diesel powered trains.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 25 2022 20:14 utc | 85
Russia, to survive, must, somehow, up their game. Hopefully, the greedy fools who own and run the empire will relent, and be satisfied with just screwing the peons of most of the globe, and end this commerce hegemony they lust for, worldwide, and abandon their plans to "takedown" Russia. Which is, after all, why they overthrew Ukraine in 2014/15.
Surely, even malignant Oligarchs realize this thing can go nuclear.
Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 25 2022 20:17 utc | 86
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 25 2022 18:37 utc | 58
Hi Karloff
I totally agree with your comments and assessment.
As for the UN meet,Russia likes the charter,but it too has been hijacked by the west.
The meet is probably no more than a fishing expedition on how far Russia is prepared to go,as obviously the west is getting a tad nervous,accepted rubles as the hangover sets in.
Posted by: Kim | Apr 25 2022 20:20 utc | 87
re donten | Apr 25 2022 19:38 utc | 76
Thanks for the link, very informative article that I had missed. Will be using it to teach students this summer.
Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 25 2022 20:27 utc | 88
Posted by: tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 61
"Am i the only one that cannot access strategic-culture? Is it a European censorship thing? Before I read Alistair Crooke every week."
Same thing here in France.
Posted by: jean l | Apr 25 2022 20:27 utc | 89
from the presser:
SECRETARY BLINKEN: And Jennifer, in terms of the humanitarian assistance, hundreds of millions of dollars of assistance has already gotten in not only to Ukraine, but to surrounding countries that are caring for Ukrainians who have been displaced, who are refugees.
How about US citizens? There are an estimated 553,742 people -- more than half a million -- in the United States experiencing homelessness on a given night, according to the most recent national point-in-time estimate. There's no "hundreds of millions of dollars of assistance" for them.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 25 2022 20:29 utc | 90
My mother believes Putin is an evil dictator and the average Chinaman wants to rape and pillage Australia. A lifetime of propaganda overrides fond memories of a wayward sixties.
However, despite believing 99% of the bullshit, she clearly understands that it is not possible for Ukraine to win.
I wonder how many “believers” know that it’s all bullshit in some small corner of their mind.
Posted by: Rae | Apr 25 2022 20:30 utc | 91
donten @ 76
I agree with Perimetr, that was a great read. I love the tech stuff.
I'd also be interested in hearing how it relates to my post.
Posted by: robin | Apr 25 2022 20:32 utc | 92
Alexander Mercouris, in The Duran's video from yesterday, "Political and economic problems plague collective west", mentions toward the end an opinion piece in a Chinese news medium where Europe is described as "enthusiastic" in following the United States and "beyond redemption". However, he does not mention where he read it. Does anyone here by chance know what article he is referring to?
Posted by: Unnamed | Apr 25 2022 20:32 utc | 93
Posted by: tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 61
I can access Strategic Culture from my computer (where I always use a VPN), but not from my mobile phone (I am in Germany). I tried using a VPN on the phone also and it wouldn't work then either, but I think that is simply the VPN on the phone not working properly.
It looks like the same kind of block that they applied against RT and Sputnik, as I get the same error (failed DNS lookup, from what I can tell).
Posted by: Unnamed | Apr 25 2022 20:35 utc | 94
I read a lot of analysis of tactical and operational action, but could someone recommend a site that publishes maps making it possible to visualize summaries of the past day or past week of operations? I know sometimes the fog of war is impenetrable, but sometimes there's enough clarity to learn something.
I'd like to study the decisions, and without maps showing before/during/after it's hard to get much out of it. Many maps don't have enough info or verbal context to really learn much from. Any recommendations would be welcome.
Thanks.
Posted by: Hickory | Apr 25 2022 16:05 utc | 9
Maps are not terribly dynamic right now, but that will change. No massive formations are moving lines. Russia is doing a ton of shaping of the battlefield. You can get a good idea of the dynamic by following Telegram posts. This blog linked below is updated constantly and is a good jumping off point to who to follow on Telegram.
Reports From Ukraine - A collection of reports from the field
Posted by: Will | Apr 25 2022 20:42 utc | 95
@tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 61
> Am i the only one that cannot access strategic-culture?
I live in the UK and I can access it fine.
@Rae | Apr 25 2022 20:30 utc | 92
> I wonder how many “believers” know that it’s all bullshit in some small corner of their mind.
Bonhoeffer‘s Theory of Stupidity
Wilful ignorance. (No offence to you or your grandma. I am sure she is lovely. I have similar family members)
"In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with him as a person, but with slogans, catchwords, and the like that have taken possession of him."
The quote fits perfectly in our current times.
Posted by: Sundial | Apr 25 2022 20:49 utc | 96
@tim | Apr 25 2022 18:42 utc | 61
> Am i the only one that cannot access strategic-culture?
I live in the UK and I can access it fine.
@Rae | Apr 25 2022 20:30 utc | 92
> I wonder how many “believers” know that it’s all bullshit in some small corner of their mind.
Bonhoeffer‘s Theory of Stupidity
Wilful ignorance. (No offence to you or your grandma. I am sure she is lovely. I have similar family members)
"In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with him as a person, but with slogans, catchwords, and the like that have taken possession of him."
The quote fits perfectly in our current times.
Posted by: Sundial | Apr 25 2022 20:49 utc | 97
And yet most here believe Russia has the luxury of infinite time.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Apr 25 2022 19:05 utc | 66
"most here" = weasel words and inaccurate generalization
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 25 2022 20:51 utc | 98
Some titbits off Telegram channel
Save the Republic: Verified Information on the Storm - Admin'd by X.FIores and Cadre
https://t.me/NewResistance
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"If Russia waged a full-scale war in Ukraine, it would have ended long ago", said Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the State Duma.
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The Prime Minister of Poland believes that there will soon be those in Europe who want to restore economic relations with the Russian Federation: “I am afraid that too soon there will be those who want to restore the broken chains with Russia
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Deutsche Welle reports that Kiev's military backers want them to place the new weapons received from NATO countries on the Right Bank near Kyiv, as well as to create fortified areas in the West of the country.
Obviously, Western analysts have come to a conclusion. That the South-East of the country and its left-bank part of the Nazi regime cannot be kept. But at the same time, it is extremely important for the West to keep at least part of the former Ukraine under its control.
------------
Posted by: Kim | Apr 25 2022 20:54 utc | 99
As a child I learned that my grandfather had been wounded at the Battle of the Somme and nearly killed.
As an adult I learned that the Battle of the Somme went on for 4 1/2 months and killed 300,000 Brits.
They just kept sending more men to die. The ruling class did not care about the human anguish they caused.
It is heartbreaking to watch the hapless conscripts of Ukraine being used as cannon fodder over 100 years later.
Heartbreaking and enraging.
The ruling class is just as evil and the working class just as clueless, it seems.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 25 2022 20:56 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Russia captures an insane blockbuster stash of Ukrainian weapons left in a factory.
An estimated 100,000 tons!!
VIDEO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhad82NKsZE
Posted by: Dean Oneil | Apr 25 2022 15:32 utc | 1