The threat of Poland invading Ukraine to round up and detain ‘Ukrainian nationalists’ should not be a surprise for students of history. The two largest Slavic population nations after Russia have been having an up and down one day chicken (peace), next day chickenshit (war) relationship since at least the 14th century when warlords of Kingdom of Poland and the Ruthenian Kingdom would inter-marry have peace for a while, then fall out for a spot of war.
Fine for the nobility but not great for the masses who were expected to grab their pitchforks & scythes, then head off to kill or be killed.
The 20th century saw two of those conflicts, the first in 1918-1919 in the Ukrainian-Polish War in Galicia

The Ukrainian-Polish War broke out in late 1918 as a result of the Polish rejection of Ukrainian efforts to establish an independent state—the Western Ukrainian National Republic (ZUNR)—in the wake of the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The major issue of dispute in the conflict was control over eastern Galicia, a predominantly Ukrainian ethnic territory regarded by the Poles as an integral part of the historical Polish realm. As the boundaries of the new Polish state had not yet been established, and the ZUNR had not been granted international diplomatic recognition, the matter was ultimately reduced to a question of control by military force.

The current proposed invasion appears to be pretty much a repeat of that action, which won’t have official ‘Nato’ support but which is being underwritten by amerika.
Poles will be motivated by the second conflict launched under cover of WW2 when the majority of Stepan Bandera’s Ukrainian nazis were used in Poland as the enforcement arm of Nazi oppression. It is well known that they rounded up Polish jews, less well known is their role of dealing with recalcitrant Polish local politicians. In addition Poland has always claimed that it was the Ukrainian NKVD who did the bulk of the alleged killing of Polish officers at Katyn.
One of the reasons the Rus who originated from sweden as vikings without the ships, had so little difficulty defeating indigenous slavs to establish Russia was that many slavic communities rated other neighbouring Slavic communities as being their worst enemy, making it simple for the Rus to use those conflicts by backing one side or the other to establish primacy. The same tactics as the english tried in Africa and south asia many centuries later.
I dunno what amerika is thinking making this a three way conflict, sure it could make the conflict last longer, but the other side of that coin is that it vastly increases the chance of Russia luring one of the other two participants into joining forces, especially if that party feels amerika has neglected it in favour of another.
I guess some will find this interesting, but many others will feel that such interest comes at too high a price. As the conflict intensifies, gets more personal for some, an increase in butchery & torture just for the hell of it is inevitable.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Apr 28 2022 23:26 utc | 203

I think WW3 is about to go Global.
Biden to seek $33bn for Ukraine, a massive jump in funding
Biden will ask Congress on Thursday for $33bn to support Ukraine – a dramatic escalation of US funding for its war against Russia – as well as new legal tools to tighten sanctions and siphon assets from Russian oligarchs, US officials have said.
The vast funding request includes over $20bn for weapons, ammunition and other military assistance, as well as $8.5bn in direct economic assistance to the government and $3bn in humanitarian and food security aid.
Posted by: Kim | Apr 28 2022 14:53 utc | 39
I think the western plan is that they have no plan. They’re just going to throw money at it until ‘Ukraine wins’. Obviously, Russia will win anyway, then the plan will be to sanction Russia until Russia withdraws. So, no real plan. The western PR has been so good in the west, that nobody is looking at the futility of this.
Anyone who even speaks of the futility of helping Ukraine is canceled. Anyone who presents evidence of Ukraine’s Neo-Nazi’s gets canceled too.
Ukraine Conflict Blog

Posted by: Will | Apr 28 2022 23:31 utc | 205

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 28 2022 19:38 utc | 142:
Interesting take on global strategic status quo :-). But I disagree with your opinion that dismantlement of the 7th Fleet at the hands of China would be the shock & Awe punch to awake the Empire from the illusion of exceptionality. The Empire is now intending the Pacific/India Oceans to be the focus of three of its USN fleets: 7th at YokoSuka; 3rd at Pearl Harbor; 5th at Bahrain. And in addition, it is suggested that 1st fleet be homebased at Perth or Singapore. Wild dreams, but the target is clear: China.
I agree with your take that war, nuclear war included, is edging towards us. I don’t know how or when or what outcome would trail the present NATO/Russia War in Ukraine, but when this is settled, the Empire’s attention will switch squarely onto the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea. And I don’t think China would back off, with or without Russia behind her back. And I also don’t think that a victory of the the Empire would be a foregone conclusion, even with all 4 fleets sharply fitted/upgraded and preped to go full steam on their mandates. China can crank out DF-21Ds, DF-26, and DF-17 by the thousands in each in matters of weeks/months. Question is, which side would first pull the nuke trigger, out of desperation.
If a powerful nation can put such abject leadership so thoroughly and comprehensively at the top levels as in the United States of America has, from the presidency down to military leadership, congress, executive departments, and even at the State/Municipal levels, then crazy decision by these morons is a foregone conclusion to me, only question is “when”?

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 28 2022 23:39 utc | 207

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 28 2022 23:16 utc | 200
Depends on what one means by “clearing the civilian population.” It’s purely speculative. Russia can do one or both of two things: 1) hit the Polish forces before they cross the border (remember: this is – nominally – being done on Poland’s own initiative, no Article 5 NATO), and/or 2) hit them just after they cross the border. They don’t have to wait for them to mingle into cities.
If they mingle into Lviv, well, fine. I really don’t think Russia cares about Lviv that much. Much of Mariupol was trashed solely to get the Nazis. Well, Lviv is full of them.
It’s also unlikely that any “guerrilla war” of any effect will arise, anyway. Ritter doesn’t believe it, since in his opinion, Ukrainians aren’t Afghans born with AK-47’s in their cribs. As someone else here mentioned, neo-Nazis tend to run (or hide as in Azovstal) when threatened with someone who can fight back. And that’s only if Russia or Belarus sends a force down from Belarus. If they just hit the Poles with missiles and air power, I don’t think it will end up being any worse than what’s already happening in Ukraine.
The whole point of my plan was to send the nationalists packing. That reduces the threat of any guerrilla war right off the bat.
Finally, guerrilla wars don’t work well against massed armies. Guerrilla wars work when they can pick off isolated military units, or hit military logistics channels. Russia has seen some of that in this war – some of their supply columns have been hit. Hasn’t stopped the Russians yet.
I really don’t see any significant chance of an effective guerrilla war or the Poles managing to not get slaughtered.
The other option, of course, is that Russia lets the Poles take Galicia and Lviv. If so, IMO, that would be really stupid of the Russians. It merely pushes NATO closer to the rest of Ukraine and Russia and IMO the whole point of this war is to do the exact opposite.
As usual, we’ll see.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 28 2022 23:42 utc | 209

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 28 2022 23:39 utc | 207
Agree completely on all points. The US taking on a country the size and capability of China with only naval assets (and such air assets as are available in theater), no matter how reinforced from other states nearby, is complete lunacy. Unfortunately, the US is run by lunatics completely out of touch with reality.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 28 2022 23:47 utc | 211

Peter AU1 #200
Thank you. It sometimes looks messy but imo there is a big westie blunder about to emerge. Meanwhile if the two additional fronts open up there will be an almighty surge of Uke refugees heading west into Poland. Even better for when the Ukrainian liberation forces of Donbass and Lugansk and friends arrive from the east.
Perhaps natonazis should rename NATO to reflect the times SAMI: suckers and mayhem incorporated.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 28 2022 23:52 utc | 213

KitaySupporter #214
“The fear of being perceived weak by the US is overwhelming. But the reality of proving strong is nil, which makes US behaving nutty.”
I’ll drink to that and shout you one.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 28 2022 23:54 utc | 215

RSH says to do the math, OK – 1000 kalibrs a day means 100,000 of these will last three months. What happens then?
How many more can be built in three months? Graph this out and the returns diminish.
(as an aside, I seriously doubt the Russians would plan to sustain 1000 a day for very long, but if the war expands all bets are off – by the same token I doubt Russia has 100000 of them, but who knows)
While it may “feel good” to think Russian industrial capability is superhuman, its better to actually work the numbers rather than wave your hands. If Russia actually starts running a shortage of missiles, they will need to use more air assets and their losses will increase, perhaps significantly, regardless of how shitty the F35 is…
The *truly* revolutionary implication of a missile war, particularly a hypersonic missile war where these allow serious damage to the opponent while staying under the threshold of using nuclear weapons, is that the old rule of thumb that during modern war “you use your assets right away, or you lose them”, no longer applies – production stamina, and actual industrial capacity again becomes the determiner of who wins.
Note that a search of the net shows that the entire inventory of US Tomahawk cruise missiles is only…4000, and it has been in production, and sold overseas, for longer than the Kalibr, and is still a staple of the US arsenal.
I see that Russia has gone to three shifts to build the Kalibr, but I just hope that they were on two shifts for the last eight years – its quite possible that they *WERE*

Posted by: Simplicius | Apr 29 2022 0:08 utc | 217

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 28 2022 23:56 utc | 216
Thank you for mentioning Nightvisions’s latest sitrep. I would have seen it eventually, but I went right over there. It’s comprehensive about the Transnistria situation and the Polish incursion into Ukraine – those both look like done deals.
Nightvision suggested that Russia wouldn’t mind if Poland took Galicia. I dumped on that notion in a comment. Letting these NATO scum achieve anything they want in Ukraine is simply going to escalate their efforts. Russia must not allow any of this shit to succeed. Nothing. Period.
I urge everyone to read Nightvision’ latest situp. A long read, his longest yet, I think, but worth it.
https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-16/

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 0:18 utc | 219

On Russian Readiness. Russia has plenty of gear, and it has some new tech as noted @216. If you’ve been reading the MoD’s sitreps closely, you’ll note that the Aerospace forces operate almost exclusively at night, and you might want to consider why. It should also be noted that Russian munitions are much less expensive than NATO’s by a large factor–more can be had for less. Russia intervened in Syria in 2015, so Russia’s munitions industry’s been working at a war support level for almost 7 years. Very few of its forces are green. NATO forces are all green, and none have any genuine motivation to engage in combat–even the Poles. No NATO nation fields a modern main battle tank, while Russia has yet to commit its newest T-14 Armatas. And then there’s Russia’s mobile SPA capability that’s been a NATO nightmare since the 1960s.
Finally, I very highly suggest reading this Martyanov blog entry and perhaps watching the videos. The point here is Russian motivation and its very genuinely high morale for it very well knows the real score. No NATO soldier can say the same. And that gives Russia a very decided advantage that IMO is at minimum equal to the doubling of its manpower–Elan can be very powerful.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 29 2022 0:19 utc | 221

Posted by: Simplicius | Apr 29 2022 0:08 utc | 217
The point is that the war will not last those three months at that level.
Assuming Russia actually has 100,000 – and remember the Kalibrs in one form or another have been around since the 90’s – imagine the state of the enemy once 100,000 concentrations of military power have been hit. (As an aside, it hasn’t been 1,000 a day every day – every few days, it drops into the hundreds, no doubt as a result of logistics replenishment, damage assessment, and other factors.)
The point is that any way between Russia and NATO will be decided in much less time than three months. The rest is mop-up on the ground. That will require thousands of tanks, hundreds of thousands of troops, and millions of artillery shells – most of which I suspect Russia has in spades.
Either that or it will go nuclear – and that will decide the war in hours.
So again, full mobilization will never be necessary because no such war is going to last months, let alone years.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 0:26 utc | 223

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 28 2022 16:49 utc | 89
excellent reply to Altai’s comment about ‘everybody hates Poles’. Your comments in general are good, thank you.
In today’s comments I learned a lot, again. Thanks for having MoA.

Posted by: fanto | Apr 29 2022 0:36 utc | 225

Thanks to RSH, karlof1 and others for their contributions
In response to Mr. Gruff about Russian manufacturing capability in the near future.
I think China will happily provide any backup manufacturing capability that Russia might need if this military activity becomes prolonged or escalates.
I continue to think the “military activity” will be limited to another few months or less. The only ones who win if it goes on longer are the MIC and those are the bullies that China and Russia are trying to put down…carefully.
The futurist in me says the destruction of all this military gear is fitting into a plan to neuter the defensive/aggressive capabilities of EU countries and then hammer the economies to where public survival has a higher priority than funding military adventures for the elite bullies……engage!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 29 2022 0:40 utc | 227

Everyone hates the Poles, I’ve never heard anyone say something comparatively complementary about them compared to other Europeans.
Posted by: Altai | Apr 28 2022 16:25 utc | 78
Good Lord Almighty. Never heard of Chopin?
You don’t really want to keep saying such things. In the long run, you’ll prefer to be taken seriously. Even if you’re just a troll — Trolling, like humor, is more effective when it’s not blatantly nonsensical.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 28 2022 16:49 utc | 89
Aleph Null, I generally appreciate your comments very much. I feel you went a little hard on Altai though. I don’t know if he’s a troll. But I had a VERY left-wing German girlfriend some years ago. She was wonderful and really cared about making the world a better place. Then Poland came up and she became another person. She said things so racist I had to end the conversation. It was shocking. And here in the US, (I’m just up the road from you in Oakland), “Polack” jokes have been a mainstay of meatbrain humor since I can remember, and I’m old. I’ve heard Europeans of other nationalities making jokes at the expense of Poles like they were talking about the weather and I’ve never known where this chauvanism comes from.
Maybe Altai was just making the same sort of observation. Thanks again for your informative posts.

Posted by: Boomhauer | Apr 29 2022 0:48 utc | 229

morongobill | Apr 29 2022 0:41 utc | 228
You seem to appear here just to post pro US propaganda. TTG is still living the forrest brothers. For all their bullshit, those clowns will disappear from history still eating their hearts out about Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 29 2022 1:06 utc | 231

In an RT article headlined:
UK calls for a ‘global NATO’
British FM Liz Truss says a ‘Global NATO’ needs to arm Taiwan, like Ukraine
In making this assertion the UK is advancing a global conflict. China will certainly interpret this demand for a ‘Global NATO’ as a significant threat to its interests. Other members of the Global South, particularly those who have had the chance to closely observe the “peace operations” of NATO in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Libya, who remember suffering through the 100 plus years of British oppression and genocide in the name of Empire, all of these nations will recoil against the proposed militaristic domination which Truss absurdly labels as “the Network of Liberty”.
Truss argued the Network of Liberty is necessary because the economic and security structures developed after 1945 – such as the UN Security Council – “have been bent out of shape so far, they have enabled rather than contained aggression.” But the “Great Bender” has been the US which has repeatedly worked to undermine any global institution which is outside of its immediate control and which rejects its own participation in such global institutions as the International Court, the Law of the Sea, and which simply annuls its written agreements when it becomes advantageous to do so.
The US has been assisted in this “Great Bending” by its complicit minions, chief among them the UK which assisted in the fabrication and foisting upon the world false evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and thereby facilitated the deaths which nobody has bothered to count because the dead, in their hundreds of thousands, were, and remain, of no concern to the proponents of the Network of Liberty.
The public should rest assured. All of these deaths, the maimed, the stillbirths, the genetic deformations due to depleted uranium munitions and their residues, the millions of persons who relocated to Europe in one of the greatest mass migrations known to the history of humankind, all of this suffering was inflicted by what Truss calls “free,””democratic nations.”
I must be hard of hearing as I have not heard of any vote in the Canadian Parliament to ship 6 obsolete field guns to Ukraine. This action renders Canada a co-belligerent under international law. The US with its shipment of 90 more obsolete field guns and some $30 billion in freshly printed dollars has also made itself a co-belligerent. And the UK, by suggesting that the weapons it has supplied to Ukraine should be used against Russian towns and citizens, has also entered the ranks of co-belligerents. All without any vote in Westminster.
No one in any “free” and “democratic” country appears to have noticed that the US, UK, and Canada were providing military hardware and training to Ukraine and knowledgeable with respect to Ukraine’s refusal to implement the agreed Minsk accords. Also gone unremarked is the fact that for the past 8 years the citizens of Donbass have been subject to regular artillery attacks resulting in significant property damage and loss of life among the civilian population. One would have thought that the presence of trainers and military specialists from the US, UK, and Canada, that one of these specialists would have explained the laws of armed conflict to the Ukrainian military.
Some posters on MoA have asserted that there exists the danger of the present Ukrainian conflict spiralling into WWIII. They are wrong.
WWIII has already started. It has been ongoing ever since the US launched the overthrow of a democratically elected government in pursuit of its own interests in Ukraine. It has been ongoing since that time as the US, UK, and Canada have shovelled in money and military hardware to keep the conflict alive, have jointly failed to respect and enforce the agreements entered into by Ukraine, have assisted Ukraine in the killing of unarmed civilians, and are today co-belligerents in armed conflict between states.
Putin repeatedly sought a diplomatic resolution and was rebuffed. “Free” and “democratic” states don’t do diplomacy. NATOstan fails to recognize any interests but their own. It will not be until the missiles rain down on Westminster, Ottawa, and Washington, that they will belatedly recognize the verity of Putin’s assertion that security is inter-dependent.

Posted by: Sushi | Apr 29 2022 1:17 utc | 233

Posted by: morongobill | Apr 29 2022 0:41 utc | 228
Martyanov dismisses Girkin. According to some comments at Lang’s, Girkin is just disappointed that Russia didn’t commit everything out of the gate. His notion that the Donbass clearing is going to stretch out for months (presumably meaning more than 1 or 2) is risible. I can see it going for another month – if there are 60,000 troops in there, it’s simply going to take time to kill them all (unless they surrender, and there is some mass surrendering going on) or unless they simply collapse, as armies have a way of doing once a certain point is reached. As Ritter says, armies resist and resist – until they don’t.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 1:36 utc | 235

Posted by: Sushi | Apr 29 2022 1:17 utc | 233
“China will certainly interpret this demand for a ‘Global NATO’ as a significant threat to its interests.”
Or laugh their asses off at the notion of Britain influencing anything in the East. The Chinese know that the only force they need to concern themselves about is the US Navy and Air Force. Everyone else is not a factor. Australia and Japan are punching way above their weight class. In comparison, Britain doesn’t exist, no matter how many times they send one warship into the Pacific. That’s assuming they have any warships left once Russia sinks them in the NATO war.
“WWIII has already started.”
Yes, but we’re talking about actual kinetic war where NATO countries and Russia actually get bombed. So we’re not wrong to worry about that.
Everything else you said is correct. Well said.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 1:44 utc | 237

“I continue to think the “military activity” will be limited to another few months or less…” psychohistorian@227
The longer this lasts the more likely is NATO to split and fall apart. In my view that is already happening with respect to Polish and Rumanian territorial ambitions. And there are many more- Turkey, Hungary perhaps even Slovakia- where they came from. And that is not to mention the motives behind Finnish and Swedish applications to join NATO.
And all this is coming from countries with military capacities laughingly small, countries which consider that NATO protection gives them the strength to act aggressively. Which of course is the story of Ukraine’s threatening of Russia through the Donbas.
The fact that the US, UK and Canada want the war to grow and lengthen- for the casualty lists to grow and the battlefield to spread- does not contradict this assessment. We know why the neo-cons want war, but those are not the reasons why Biden and Johnson want it, their aims are trivial and political in the most sordid sense. And their hold on power is very tenuous, neither is far removed from criminal charges.
The important people here are the ruling classes in France, Germany and Italy, who are not necessarily connected with the political actors. These are real countries with real economies dependent on trade an access to raw materials- and their populations are not likely to be ready to ‘sacrifice’ very much in the way of living standards for the scoundrels in Ukraine.
When capitalists and workers both want the same thing the rotting Empire, piloted by Blinken and Biden, Freeland and Liz Truss is not going to stand in their way.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 29 2022 1:54 utc | 239

OK Mike Whitney has another of his fine articles here. As he points out Russia’s claims regarding the US Biolabs cannot be dismissed easily. They have authentic documents with real seals and real signatures attesting to the facts that the US was preparing itself got a biological offensive that even some of our Covidiots would find it hard to trivialise and dismiss.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/uncle-sams-bio-weapons-extravaganza/

Posted by: bevin | Apr 29 2022 2:19 utc | 241

WASHINGTON – Ukrainian troops now have more than half of the 90 howitzers that the U.S. pledged them to help beat back a Russian attack in the country’s eastern region, chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2022 3:26 utc | 243

from intel slava….
what are the chances russia has the coordinates on this place??
“Washington has set up an intelligence center in Lvov where the Americans work with General Staff officers to get quick information from reconnaissance planes, UAVs and satellites that collect data around and over Ukraine in space.
The staff is about 50 people only from the USA. It is located in one of the communication buildings in Lviv.”

Posted by: james | Apr 29 2022 3:29 utc | 245

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 29 2022 3:29 utc | 244
“Are those mobile howitzers or towed howitzers?”
Towed. Utterly useless. The first time they encounter counter-battery fire – assuming they even get to the front – they’ll be destroyed. And they won’t get to the front because they need a truck to tow them and tens of trucks to carry the X thousands of rounds of ammo.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 3:47 utc | 247

@ Arch Bungle 244
mobile howitzers or towed howitzers
towed…and we’ve had comments on how they are obsolete in these days of lurking kamikaze drones, counter-battery. It’s now a drone world and we just live in it. . .So the Ukie gunners, if they step down to these towed M777 155mm howitzers, manufactured by BAE Systems’ Global Combat Systems division, would be easy targets.
Currently, both Russia and Ukraine rely on the S7 Soviet self-propelled 203mm heavy artillery system, with upgrades, while the Pentagon showboats with useless crap.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2022 3:59 utc | 249

@wagelaborer Bringing the fight to North America would frankly be as simple as blowing up coastal oil refineries and maybe a few other targets with conventionally armed missiles. Using nukes on the North American continent far away from the battlefield invites global nuclear war but simply totally breaking down the U.S. economy (what is left of it) by destroying the oil refineries of the most oil thirsty country in the world would result in civil strife which would most likely end with the United States dissolving long term.
Multi-culturalism and deeply predatory economic practices have created in the United States a situation where too much instability will quickly become a violent series of uprisings followed by bloody racial conflict.
In 2020 the powers that be in America used color revolutionary strategy in the U.S. to depose Donald Trump and force through the system candidate Joe Biden. This included riling up BLM and AntiFa radicals who are kept “on ice” so to speak between crucial moments where the media pays them no mind and the system does not give them permission to riot. Following the American color revolution of 2020 various measures have been taken to pull those radicals back in or jail them. In the meantime due to the color revolution of 2020 and forced vaccine campaigns and inflation throughout 2021 a significantly more integrated on the ground so to speak populist right has emerged and has made significant waves through mass action. We may all forget the freedom convoys of early 2022 because they were overshadowed by the Ukraine Crisis but they were earth shattering events in terms of levels of political activism from the right not seen since maybe the 1960’s or perhaps even the 1930’s.
Ideally the powers that be would prefer to play both sides against one another and prevent a temporary truce between the two so that both parties could set about destroying the political elite of the country but defeat in war has a funny way of uniting disparate factions amongst the people of a country against the political elites, because when everyone is hungry and poor, and it is because THEY!, the political elites, got US ALL! the population, into an unwinnable corner, relatively less important issues like white children being intimidated and beaten by black children or muh fo’ hunnit years of opreshun take a back seat to not being able to eat.
Blowing up oil refineries would paralyse the American economy and if Russia actually manages to re order global finance away from the dollar as reserve currency that would approximate the effects of defeat in a war: collapse of external political dominance and internal economy.
Europe might frankly end up doing better than the United States. Europe has not yet been totally transformed through generations of immigration into a Yugoslavia waiting to happen, America has. When the dust is settled, assuming the dust doesn’t give you radiation burns, Europe will be in major economic trouble, and the people will be at the point of revolt, and the turmoil will continue for years, but since defeat of the American empire on the world stage means western Asia will be allowed to rebuild itself, incentives for economic migration will reverse and many of the recent immigrants from west Asia will probably return. Without genocidal levels of mass migration and American occupation, there is no reason Europe should not again prosper.

Posted by: Cthulhu | Apr 29 2022 4:07 utc | 251

..from AP
Many of the Russian troops who were in Mariupol have been leaving and moving to the northwest, a senior U.S. defense official said Thursday. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the U.S. military assessment, didn’t have exact numbers but said a “significant number” of the roughly one dozen battalion tactical groups that were in the city were moving out.
Russian forces are making slow, incremental progress in the Donbas — gaining only several kilometers on any given day, the official said. As of Thursday, Russia had launched about 1,900 missiles into Ukraine – the vast majority fired from outside Ukraine’s borders. Most are strikes on Mariupol and the Donbas. . .here
A couple miles a day isn’t bad, and the main point is that the Ukies have been removed from their comfortable, relatively safe dug-in positions and are on the move in open terrain.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2022 4:35 utc | 253

Cthulhu #251
The biggest impediment to European prosperity is cheap energy and they have just mortgaged that opportunity to Slav racism and hatred. It has cost Russia dearly and won’t be easily forgiven.
The EU might come out better than usa but I would think ignorance and hubris will shackle it for a generation more.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 29 2022 4:45 utc | 255

Without genocidal levels of mass migration and American occupation, there is no reason Europe should not again prosper.
Posted by: Cthulhu | Apr 29 2022 4:07 utc | 251
MIgration is only necessary for people who’s countries have been destroyed by neoliberal capitalism. If you want citizens of “shit hole” countries that have been destroyed for western”prosperity” to stay home, then don’t destroy their countries by war or theft in the first place.
US and EU deserve what they’ve got but immigrants on the other hand have no choice left.

Posted by: K | Apr 29 2022 4:55 utc | 257

Sorry, tactical nukes.

Posted by: onlooker | Apr 29 2022 5:06 utc | 259

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 28 2022 23:39 utc | 207

If a powerful nation can put such abject leadership so thoroughly and comprehensively at the top levels as in the United States of America has, from the presidency down to military leadership, congress, executive departments, and even at the State/Municipal levels, then crazy decision by these morons is a foregone conclusion to me, only question is “when”?

A mortifying truth for every American to reflect upon when the suffering really escalates.

Posted by: Emily Dickinson | Apr 29 2022 5:38 utc | 261

fyi
treason – lock ’em all up
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1519724011621650439
Jordan Schachtel @ dossier.substack.com
Sending $33 billion to Ukraine amounts to an act of treason. Placing that debt on the American people for a foreign war 5,000 miles away should be perceived as criminal behavior.
12:03 PM · Apr 28, 2022·Twitter Web App
2,399 Retweets 128 Quote Tweets 10.2K Likes

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 29 2022 5:49 utc | 263

Dozens of Australian RAAF pilots are operating drone strikes from the United Kingdom, Defence Department confirms for the first time
Exclusive by defence correspondent Andrew Greene
Posted Thu 21 Apr 2022 at 4:06am
In a Freedom of Information disclosure, the [Australian Department of Defence] reveals 32 ADF personnel are currently embedded in “unmanned aerial system units” in the UK, while one other is working in the United States.
Details of their deployment are closely guarded, but in 2020 British researchers reported that Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) pilots had flown American-made MQ-9A Reaper drones over Syria and Iraq for Britain’s Royal Air Force (RAF), as had private contractors.
The dozens of ADF exchange personnel are also helping the British military to begin transitioning to the new MQ-9B Protector drone, which will eventually replace the RAF’s Reaper fleet.

Posted by: Dadda | Apr 29 2022 7:00 utc | 265

… If NATO and the “international community” do not object to the …

There is no then. Only doo-doo. Special kind of stupid, you are.

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 29 2022 7:30 utc | 267

Posted by: JC | Apr 28 2022 20:49 utc | 160

Man, I’m waiting for the day witnessing China smash up Japan into pulp or mashed potatoes for their occupation Nanjing and Northeast China… former Manchuria (Manchukuo)……

I wouldn’t know about it – does the CPC even intend to exact revenge on modern-day Japan? If so, what’s stopping them?

Posted by: joey_n | Apr 29 2022 9:32 utc | 269

Different nations already called their citizens to leave Moldavia or cancel planned journeys.
This morning a friend of mine working at a surgery, who is not really up to date of the things happening, because he is a victim of MSM, finally started thinking, when a mother called him on the phone to cancel her son’s appointment. Her son is Bundeswehr soldier and received orders to immediately report at his garrison. Unfortunately he did not ask for the arm. But looks like holiday is cancelled for German soldiers right now…
Prepare for escalation very soon…

Posted by: T.h.omas | Apr 29 2022 9:46 utc | 271

Von den Leven seems to have completely lost her marbles.

Excellent! Don’t interrupt her.

Posted by: doom | Apr 29 2022 10:08 utc | 273

looks like holiday is cancelled for German soldiers right now…
They are simply needed for a photo-op on their way to Poland…….it should bring back memories for Russian Media but hardly any that conflict with those images of German banners being dumped in Red Square that will be broadcast in 9 days time

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 29 2022 10:10 utc | 275

Yes, I also noticed this timeout. Suspicious?
There is something very suspicious about NATO movements in Central Europe.
I suspect a sudden attack or operation on 01.05 or 09.05.
Never underestimate the ability of sociopaths to escalate beyond what is sane.
Liz Truss appears to want to reconstitute the British Empire.

Posted by: moaobserver | Apr 29 2022 10:29 utc | 277

Russia is being pushed into a position where taking control of the whole of Ukraine is the only sensible course of action.
Ukraine has already ignored peace deals, so what’s the point of negotiating? And the west say that they will keep funnelling arms into Ukraine until all of the country, including Donbas and Crimea, is under Ukrainian control, so the only way to stop this is for Russia to take control of the whole country, IMO.

Posted by: D J G | Apr 29 2022 10:37 utc | 279

One of the reasons the Rus who originated from sweden as vikings without the ships, had so little difficulty defeating indigenous slavs to establish Russia was that many slavic communities rated other neighbouring Slavic communities as being their worst enemy, making it simple for the Rus to use those conflicts by backing one side or the other to establish primacy. The same tactics as the english tried in Africa and south asia many centuries later.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Apr 28 2022 23:26 utc | 203
There is an indirect evidence for parts of this scenario, but not the whole of it. Around the time of the fall of western Roman Empire, Slavs were not known, meaning, their ancestors lived on a comparatively small territory far from folks making any written records, say, Belarus and NW Ukraine. Linguistic evidence shows strong Baltic (Balto-Slavic) substrate in the vocabulary with elements from Sarmatians and Goths. The tribal units had modest size, and there perhaps was some warrior stratum of Sarmatian origin. Shortly after, there were streams of migrations, but they did not seem to be “conquests”, big swaths of Europe were severely depopulated by wars, epidemics and migrations. Within 300 years, the size of the tribal units did not seem to grow, but there were a lot more of them. I am a bit hazy on archaeological periods,, but there was a process that numerous fortifications were getting steadily improved, and that tells that attacks from neighbor and the defense grew in sophistication. Surely there were larger territorial organizations, perhaps more of coalitions than states.
To compare, when Saxons were faced with Carolingian Franks (who were becoming an empire, they were organized exactly like that. And Saxony was truly conquered. But were Eastern Slavs conquered by the Swedes? Vikings had more martial expertise, and a concept of kingly type of power, but not that much of administration etc., but what happen in territories that became Rus?
Initially, it seems that some war bands were accepted by tribal coalitions as war leaders. Local fighters appreciated better expertise, so to speak. There had to be frictions in this process, as the improvements in fortifications suggest, there were frictions also without it. Later Rurikid organization allowed for long distance trade, looting and large scale mercenary contracts, reaching Byzantium and Persia, thus cementing the organization by bestowing prestigious articles to local headmen in exchange of tribute. There is no record of any sharp separation between Scandinavians and Slavs, like with Franks in Gaul, it was quickly vanishing, perhaps even faster if you judge on the names they used, names recorded in writing by Byzantians.
If legends recorded once Rus become Christian, there was occasional resistance to the unification, but the resisting leaders, slaughtered with daughters forced to marry Rurikids, had Scandinavian names. Compare with fights between regional Frankish counts and kings in Gaul/France. However, to establish themselves in Gaul, Franks had to overcome and adopt Roman institutions in a conquest that had specific battles and dates, while the process of Varangian taking over Eastern Slavs and becoming Eastern Slavs themselves took at least a century, with no unity on other sides and no clear distinction between the sides.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 29 2022 10:49 utc | 281

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 10:20 utc | 276
Yes, this morning it was down here too, I was just checking now and fortunately it’s back.

Posted by: Paco | Apr 29 2022 10:50 utc | 283

New terrorist attack of the Ukrainian regime.
The Nazis continue targeted shelling of peaceful residential areas, this time they shelled the city of Makeyevka from the Uragan MLRS, a woman and a child were killed, and 19 more people were injured.

Posted by: alaff | Apr 29 2022 11:16 utc | 285

New Scott Ritter interview…
Parrot TV
FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW: SCOTT RITTER ON LATEST DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE
HOSTS: DUSTIN PICKERING & CARLO PARCELLI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRy_Ak7sj80

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 11:18 utc | 287

Ruble at 70.
Who is winning?
Who is it who knows who is winning? When will Washington wake up?

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 29 2022 11:24 utc | 289

Posted by: Brannagyn | Apr 29 2022 11:23 utc | 287
Agreed. I paid him some attention early on before the war, but I got disillusioned. Martyanov dismisses him, of course, along with the rest of the “Twitter experts”.
I like what Martyanov says: The butthurt these guys are going to feel when everything they proclaimed turns out wrong.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 11:30 utc | 291

Peter Au1:
Sorry you feel that my contribution of a couple of articles from SST on Ukraine is shilling for the US, don’t remember the exact words but that is close.
May I remind you that b used to comment there? As well as others here.
I still respect the Colonel and am interested in his opinions as I do b. As I also do you and the others here trying to figure out this crazy world.

Posted by: morongobill | Apr 29 2022 11:43 utc | 293

Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 10:20 utc | 276
Lapin | Apr 29 2022 11:33 utc | 291
Same in Australia. Looks like a server overload issue. Or could have been a denial of service attack.

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Apr 29 2022 11:47 utc | 295

Piotr Berman 281 & dessisdead 203
Viking/Varangian/Rurik were traders. They ran a commercial empire. The Viking ships always well adapted to river travel.
Commercial empires have no need to take or hold real estate. When the trade ceases to be profitable or interesting or has too many problems always simple to walk away. What will be left behind are the marriage alliances and bloodlines. Those connections can be re-activated whenever useful. What is also left behind are Golden Age myths. Historical continuity within territory of Ukraine is primarily myth. Thus we have Azov maintaining that the only true Ukrainians are from Swedish and German blood. Utter rubbish that Ukes are Swedes but myth works.
Rurik bloodlines maintained through all European aristocracy.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 29 2022 12:03 utc | 297

From Anna News Telegram channel and others…

Poland delivered about 200 tanks to Ukraine
Warsaw delivered 200 T-72M1 tanks to Kyiv, which makes it possible to equip 2 tank brigades.
In addition, the Ukrainian military received several dozen Polish infantry fighting vehicles.
Deliveries are not limited to armored vehicles. Poland supplies Ukraine with self-propelled guns 2S1 “Gvozdika” and MLRS “Grad”, as well as air-to-air missiles.
The total amount of Polish supplies is almost $1.6 billion.
@anna_news

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 29 2022 12:19 utc | 299