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April 15, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-47
Comments
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 22:11 utc | 96
Now, this may be just me having a conversation with myself at this point, but I was incorrect on the 3-day timeframe for the edit in question. All three (3) captures of the article at the Way Back Machine for October 25, 2018 have the original language in them. It is only in the capture from October 26 that the words indicating that no direct Russian involvement was seen were removed and replaced by an ellipsis. So it’s likely that someone made the decision later in the day on October 25 but Way Back Machine just didn’t do any further archives for that day (there are three (3) with different timestamps).
Regardless, it’s evidence of how carefully the narrative has been and is being managed in the Western media.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 22:22 utc | 101
Thanks Boo@97,
Don’t have telegram on this rig, so long videos won’t load. Will have to take a look at a later time.
Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 15 2022 22:30 utc | 102
Telegram In-App translations:
Go to Settings -> Language and enable the feature.
Afterwards, when viewing a post, click on the timestamp and select “Translate”
Posted by: rrramirezzz | Apr 15 2022 22:33 utc | 103
Posted by: rrramirezzz | Apr 15 2022 22:33 utc | 100
Just to add, that feature doesn’t exist in Telegram Desktop.
RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 22:46 utc | 104
To me, it looks like the Moskva ship was hit by Ukraine missile(s) with help from US targeting, and both Russia and the US are pretending it didn’t happen, but both knowing. Salami slicing. Will be interesting how Russia responds.
Posted by: Featherless | Apr 15 2022 22:47 utc | 105
My thoughts about the fire on the ship, then it sinking, was perhaps it was a false flag by Russia themselves so they can escalate the conflict (as they now appear to be doing)? It was a 40 year old pile of junk anyway, so why not?
Posted by: Mongo | Apr 15 2022 22:47 utc | 106
The Saker’s view of the Moskva sinking…
…as to what actually caused the explosion, my personal best guess is a Ukrainian mine detached by the recent storm and drifting southwards which the Russians failed to detect. That would explain the hull breach which later resulted in the Moskva taking in water and sinking while in tow. I still don’t buy the “Ukrainian 2 “Neptunes” version at all, if only because the Moskva had very solid air defenses while bad weather makes minesweeping very hard. But we will probably never find out for sure, unless the members of the crew reveal what really happened]
I think he’s got it right.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 22:55 utc | 107
@ Sundial 81
The excellent article you link to, including the events that led to war, included the unsuccessful quest for autonomy by Dombass citizens who are mistakenly called “separatists.”. I would add two comments:
1. Regional autonomy is a common status in the world and in Europe listed here. . . How about that Northern Ireland in the UK? That’s okay, but Dombass isn’t because US/UK say so.
2. Regional autonomy is required by Minsk 2 and by UN 2202(2015).
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 23:00 utc | 108
I think G. Doctorow is almost always a good read, even if I don’t fully agree.
the West doesn’t get it, still, how different this war/operation is than all of ITS own the last 70+ years, which have either been shock and awe with absolutely massive destruction and civilian casualties (mostly from aerial bombing shit-storms from Hell), or else with the use of local proxy forces such as in Syria and Yemen, plus all the proxy bombing and subterfuge, once again with massive civilian deaths. Or finally, the most current and ‘fashionable’ the despicable and illegal economic warfare/sanctions against peoples and nations emanating from the international bandits and pricks at the US Treasury and the EU ass-kissing thugs in Brussels, which again has resulted in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and illnesses and human misery for many many tens of millions in Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, N. Korea, Lebanon, et. al.
two snippets from Doctorow’s latest:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/04/14/the-russian-way-of-war-part-two/
The Russian Way of War: Part Two
“….At the same time, no one, NO ONE, in the West has commented on a few obvious facts that place the Russian ‘military operation’ totally outside the traditions of invasions or other acts of aggression. The Russians’ choice of words to describe what they were about to do was anything but arbitrary. They had specific objectives of ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification,’ to which was added in the past couple of weeks, almost as an afterthought, to secure the Donbas from any further attacks by Ukrainian forces positioned on the other side of the line of demarcation.
The importance of the last-named would not be obvious to Western readers, because the only war pictures put up on Western media are those showing suffering of residents of Mariupol or Khamatorsk. However, Russian television viewers are shown daily the consequences of Ukrainian missile and artillery barrages on the civilian population of Donetsk and surrounding villages, with a daily death toll and casualties requiring hospitalization. This is only the tail of a story of vicious attacks in violation of the Minsk Accords that goes back eight years and produced more than 14,000 civilian deaths, of which the West has chosen to be oblivious to this very day….
….First, with regard to sanctions, there was near unanimity among the panelists (Russian social, academic and political elites on TV) that it is time for Russia to respond directly and strongly to the full economic and hybrid war that the United States and Europe are now waging against their country. They call for an immediate cut-off of gas supplies to Europe, to an embargo on export of titanium and other essential raw materials for advanced industrial production in the West….
….try it all out first on Japan…. Russia should impose a total commercial embargo on Japan, beginning with hydrocarbons and extending into all spheres, such as fishing concessions. Moreover, Russia should position tactical nuclear weapons and other significant armaments on the Kurile Islands as a firm reminder of who owns these territories now and forever….”
Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 15 2022 23:05 utc | 109
Tom Q Collins, 55
Small product tankers around 3000 tons made obsolete by courtesy of Aristoteles Onassis.
After he wrecked the “MT Olympic Warrior” on the Ouessant reefs, re-insurers refused to cover vessels over 25 years of age.
So, perfectly good vessels went from desirable tools to worthless junk in the blink of an eye.
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 15 2022 23:08 utc | 110
https://ria.ru/20220415/vooruzheniya-1783828637.html
MOSCOW, 15 Apr-RIA Novosti. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed to RIA Novosti that the ministry sent a note to all countries, including the United States, because of the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
So she responded to a request to comment on the publication of the Washington Post, which mentioned such a note.
“Yes, they did,” Zakharova told the agency.
When asked to specify which countries the note was sent to, she replied:: “All of them.”
……………
Looks like the usual culprits have all had a written warning.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 23:22 utc | 111
waynorinorway @52–
Thanks for your generous reply!! Oftentimes, when I cease surfing @5pm Pacific, I have several articles open in windows I’ve yet to deal with and share with the bar. So, when I launch forth the next day, I already have a work queue to deal with. As a historian, I’ve learned to accept the fact that I’ll never catch up with all the info available–that’s why PhD’s have grad assts to help with research, particularly grueling archive work. And of course, when I finish it’s already the next day in Eurasia.
sln2002 @35–
And before BRICS there was RIC. India and Russia/USSR have conducted currency swaps in rupees/rubles for over 50 years. RIC was promoted by Primakov as Yeltsin faded in the late 1990s, and the concept gained traction with new treaties of friendship signed between Russia and India first followed by Russia and China at the beginning of the Putin Era in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Friction between India and China slowed progress, but additional impetus was injected with the addition of Brazil and South Africa prior to the Sochi Olympics. Overall momentum has increased annually as the East rose and West fell across the geopolitical spectrum. Putin hoped the EU would jump at the idea of a free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok, but it was too late as the EU was already subservient to the Outlaw US Empire. Then Nursultan Nazarbaev proposed the idea of the EAEU in tandem with the already established SCO in 2013. And all the while the East has continued to grow while the West continues to shrink and display its vast immorality that predates the USSR’s implosion which gave the West the false idea that it had won something; it had not and still hasn’t despite its killing millions more innocents while stealing and squandering billions in wealth. The West’s behavior during the 1990s and announcement that it sought to attain Full Spectrum Dominance of the planet and its people turned off/alienated the Global South but also pushed it together for survival.
Yes, there’s far more to that outline, but that’s the essential bare bones when it comes to today’s components of the emerging Multipolar World. What’s emerged from the effort to deNazify Ukriane is the longstanding idea of turning it into an Anti-Russia that was first articulated by Bismarck and made into reality by the CIA and its Hitlerite Nazi hirelings in what we now know was a joint MI-6 and OSS policy that began in 1944 and continues today. It’s the continuation of the policy to turn Ukraine into an Anti-Russia that proves beyond doubt that the Cold War never ended but entered a new phase that I call The Rape. The Rescue began with the Putin Era, which moved the process into a new phase I term The Redemption (2008-2018) and became The Retaliation with Putin’s 2018 revealing of Russia’s newfound military superiority based on its hypersonics. Others will have a different ordering, and I might change mine too. Putin has declared the Era of Unipolar Hegemony over, or rather currently “being destroyed,” and Lavrov has used similar words. Glazyev sees it all as a Hybrid War. Ten years ago I called it the Hybrid Third World War, which I still think is correct although I don’t often use that phrase.
Everyday, new information is published and events occur that become part of the historical record. And while the report’s being written about the Ukrainian phase of Russia’s SMO the next phase will begin to establish Russia’s Security Requirements. The point is no single event is going to be THE EVENT for this is a process consisting of phases. Turning Ukraine into the Anti-Russian spring board it is today took 70+ years and will take 40+ to undo. But that isn’t where DeNazification ends–it won’t end until its sponsors, the Outlaw US and Anglo Empires are themselves cleansed of that EVIL and the racism/supremicism that’s at its roots. So, don’t get impatient with the pace of events–Paradigm Changes aren’t rapid and past changes have taken centuries to accomplish.
* Can anyone recommend an article that summarizes the Ukraine conflict for people who have no idea what’s going on?
Posted by: THX1138 | Apr 15 2022 16:04 utc | 4
Bryce Greene overview article on fair.org is the best that I’ve come across. Also check out his podcast appearances, he states everything very clearly.
Posted by: VAria | Apr 15 2022 23:23 utc | 113
@ b1
Thanks for the reminder on the late Stephen Cohen (1938-2020). Sadly, U.S.A is bereft of Russian Scholars.
A few days ago your post, “How the U.S. does diplomacy” triggered this article from the archives of the late Stephen’s articles.
Summitgate and the Campaign vs. ‘Peace’
Not surprisingly, Trump’s meetings with NATO and Putin are being portrayed as ominous events by Russiagaters
[..]
unlike in the past, mainstream media have found little place for serious discussion of today’s dangerous conflicts between Washington and Moscow: regarding nuclear-weapons-limitation treaties, cyber-warfare, Syria, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region, even Afghanistan.
It’s easy to imagine how Trump and Putin could agree on conflict-reduction and cooperation in all of these realms. But considering the traducing by the Post, Times, and Maddow of a group of senators who visited Moscow around July 4, it’s much harder to see how the defamed Trump could implement such “peace deals.” (There is a long history of sabotaging or attempting to sabotage summits and other détente-like initiatives. Indeed, a few such attempts have been evident in recent months and more may lie ahead.)
Nor is the unreasonably demonized Putin without constraints at home, though none like those that may cripple Trump. The Kremlin’s long-postponed decision to raise the pension age for Russian men and women has caused his popular ratings, though still high, to drop some 8 to 10 percent in recent weeks.
More significantly, segments of the Russian military-security establishment do not trust Putin’s admitted “illusions” about negotiating with Washington in the past. And like their American counterparts, they do not trust Trump, whom they too view as unreliable, if not capricious. These Russian “hard-liners” have made their concerns known publicly, and Putin must take them into account. As has been a function of summits over the decades, he is seeking in Trump a reliable national-security partner. Given the constraints on Trump and his proclivities, Putin too is taking a risk, and he knows it.
Even if nothing more specific is achieved, everyone who cares about American and international security should hope that the Trump-Putin summit results at least in a restoration of the diplomatic process, the longstanding “contacts,” between Washington and Moscow that have been greatly diminished, if not destroyed, by the new Cold War and by Russiagate allegations. Cold War without diplomacy is a recipe for actual war.[.] (emphasis added)
LINK
We are 1 minute before midnight.
Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 15 2022 23:25 utc | 114
CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 22:55 utc | 104
That theory makes sense. To date though, no mention of an initial explosion.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 23:29 utc | 115
Does anyone know of a translation of this document which is purported to be proof that Ukraine was preparing for an imminent large assault on Donbas? It was said to be found in a captured Ukrainian military base (in the Jacques Baud article).
https://t.me/rybar/29677?single
That or does anyone here know Ukrainian/Russian and able to translate?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 23:36 utc | 116
Big news: surrendered British mercenary Aiden Aslin has come clean about the situation in Mariupol. He stated that Kiev-regime troops looted supermarkets when civilians needed food and stopped them from getting water. He described the regime’s troops as criminals for killing civilians. Obviously, Western mass media are trying hard to stop the world from learning about his revelations.
Read the full details here:
https://www.rt.com/russia/553933-british-captive-mariupol-ukraine-reality/
Posted by: Nate | Apr 15 2022 23:38 utc | 117
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 15 2022 23:08 utc | 107
Very interesting, and I’m sure very frustrating for you. I know next to nothing about the seas; I’ve grown up and lived in very landlocked places for the majority of my life. No way I’ll ever get on a cruise ship either without a lot of arm twisting by the wife, but she’s similarly leery of commercial cruises. Maybe the Danube, one day…
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 23:39 utc | 118
Dom | Apr 15 2022 22:07 utc | 95 “BTW can you see the perfect recipe for a nuclear escalation? The ingredients seem to be all present. Esp under this chain of command Biden, Harris, Pelosi.”
I see Zelensky is now warning that Russia may use tactical nukes. Perhaps its just a bit of empty propaganda but all to often that sort of thing is a warning of a false flag in the making.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 23:41 utc | 119
Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 23:36 utc | 113
I think the Russian mod had full translations. Richard Steven Hack posted them o a thread here some time ago, copy and pastes from I think mod telegram channel. Saker site may have it as well.
It looked like training and build up of forces on the Donbas front line to be completed by Feb 28 but did not seem to explicitly set a date for an operation to commence.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 23:53 utc | 120
Peter AU1 @116
This report concerns me greatly. Perhaps they think the UA army in the cauldron is finished and a nice large tactical explosion would bring NATO into the fight. After all the Eastern army has reached it’s expiration date but I can’t conceive of any nation giving even a small tactical nuke to these madmen. If this were to occur it would have to be a western nation that brings it in.
Posted by: Anonymouse | Apr 15 2022 23:56 utc | 121
That’s for posting Sergey. Enjoyed reading that last evening and you beat me to sharing it here.
Russian Geoeconomics Tzar Sergey Glazyev Introduces the New Global Financial System
Thanks to U.S. and her lemmings (Eurolemmings per theSaker) this nugget means it’s no longer a thought:
[..] In the first phase of the transition, these countries fall back on using their national currencies and clearing mechanisms, backed by bilateral currency swaps. At this point, price formation is still mostly driven by prices at various exchanges, denominated in dollars. This phase is almost over: after Russia’s reserves in dollars, euro, pound, and yen were “frozen,” it is unlikely that any sovereign country will continue accumulating reserves in these currencies. Their immediate replacement is national currencies and gold.
The second stage of the transition will involve new pricing mechanisms that do not reference the dollar. Price formation in national currencies involves substantial overheads, however, it will still be more attractive than pricing in ‘un-anchored’ and treacherous currencies like dollars, pounds, euro, and yen. The only remaining global currency candidate – the yuan – won’t be taking their place due to its inconvertibility and the restricted external access to the Chinese capital markets. The use of gold as the price reference is constrained by the inconvenience of its use for payments.
The third and the final stage on the new economic order transition will involve a creation of a new digital payment currency founded through an international agreement based on principles of transparency, fairness, goodwill, and efficiency. I expect that the model of such a monetary unit that we developed will play its role at this stage. A currency like this can be issued by a pool of currency reserves of BRICS countries, which all interested countries will be able to join. The weight of each currency in the basket could be proportional to the GDP of each country (based on purchasing power parity, for example), its share in international trade, as well as the population and territory size of participating countries.
In addition, the basket could contain an index of prices of main exchange-traded commodities: gold and other precious metals, key industrial metals, hydrocarbons, grains, sugar, as well as water and other natural resources. To provide backing and to make the currency more resilient, relevant international resource reserves can be created in due course. This new currency would be used exclusively for cross-border payments and issued to the participating countries based on a pre-defined formula. [.]
The financial war is impacting everyone as the new global financial system unfolds into two blocs:
the 13% – US EU CANADA UK AU JAPAN SK vs. 87% – BRICS Central & South America EAEU Iran Saudi Arabia UAE African Continent. BRICS represents 41.5% of world population.
Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 15 2022 23:56 utc | 122
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 23:36 utc | 113
I remember posting this exact message from rybar when it appeared with a translation of the text itself, but not of the documents. Somebody commented that there’s no smoking gun about actual attack plans, just orders to move forces around.
I just tried to read it in ukranian which is a lot funkier for me than Russian, and yes, I can confirm that it consists of orders what forces to go where and some such by the end of February which is the only indication of the overall plan to start an attack on D/LPR in beginning of March. HTH
Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 23:57 utc | 123
@118
Nice turnaround. Right before the war Ze was, in so many words, threatening to the Europeans that Ukraine might decide to develop their own …
Bullshit without shame, and when in doubt, escalate
Posted by: ptb | Apr 16 2022 0:21 utc | 124
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 23:29 utc | 112
True. The issue, as Martyanov noted, was that the MoD said fire first, then explosion, not the reverse. So AFAIK the MoD is clearly labeling it an accident.
The problem with that is that no one is going to believe it without backup evidence. Second, the landing ship was originally a “fire”, and then it became “missile fragment hit it causing fire.” Then we have Russia hitting the factory that makes anti-ship missiles today. Which might indicate that even they don’t know what actually happened, or that they just “want to make sure it doesn’t happen again.”
Frankly I don’t believe the MoD will ever explain it, simply because in any case it looks bad for Russia.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 0:22 utc | 125
Anonymouse | Apr 15 2022 23:56 utc | 118
I take it for granted US, UK most likely the french and maybe a few others have spooks and covert ops types on the ground in Ukraine. it’s something I was worried about at the start as it looked like US/UK may require a major false flag to encourage the Europeans to suicide. that threat seemed to diminish but with Russia’s economy doing well, western economies doing worse and Russia on the verge of clearing the battlefield, Zelesky come out with the N word. He is given his script… to me it has constantly seemed UK is trying to push the US into a hot war with Russia. MI6 has a lot of sway in Ukraine perhaps more so than the US spooks.
Possibly UK his behind Zelensky warning Russia may use nukes. UK also I think quite capable of pulling off something like that.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 0:24 utc | 126
Russia has tried to have its cake and eat it too. They’re our slavic brothers nonsense. The logistics rail links should have been destroyed weeks ago. Size of the RF forces is too small. On top of that, trying to do this without conscripts–so stripping professional units out of formations all over the country. Minimize domestic impact. Waiting for troops from Kiev to relocate and refit. Waiting for troops in Mariupol to take the city and shift north. What the heck? Trying to stuff 20 lbs in a 10 lb bag. Needed more troops from the get go. Reminds me of Rumsfeld taking an axe to the OPlan for Iraq. Smells of politics, not military planning. Not much time to wake up and fix this stuff.
Posted by: Rodrigo | Apr 16 2022 0:34 utc | 127
CarlD @107–
Thanks for your earlier reply. I’m sorry, I was rather harsh as you are making an effort, which is more than most attempt. And it’s difficult to watch what in reality is a Global War when news sources prove useless or worse–lie outright. Too many thought Russia’s SMO would accomplish its aims rapidly; but for those watching closely, it was quickly clear that wasn’t going to occur. The war will be long and go through several phases, and it must be recognized that the primary foes are Russia versus the UK and USA–not the EU, for they are enslaved by the English speakers–and it’s very possible Russia’s ally China will enter the Kinetic aspect of this war at some point (China’s already engaged in the war’s Hybrid aspects.). At this point, nobody knows how the war will end. IMO, for Humanity to win, the two Anglo Empires must lose.
@122
Re: Moskva in general
Unexplained fire does indeed seem to be the standard ‘plausible-deniability’ reporting of a strike. This formality has been used several times, so though a literal accidental fire is possible, I’m not too fixated on that.
At the reported close distance of the ship to both shore and to NATO airspace, there are endless ways a clever attack could have been executed. In the weather and wave conditions, even a handful of Tochka’s with modernized guidance and jamming functions, flying a low trajectory, could have gotten pretty close before being detected. Or some sort “AUV” underwater contraption. Or a combination.
At this point it will be nice to see the crew. The ship was an important symbol of another era, that many people have fond feelings for. But you win some, you lose some. The damage done to cities and towns in DNR is much scarier.
Posted by: ptb | Apr 16 2022 0:37 utc | 129
THX1138 | Apr 15 2022 16:04 utc | 4
From a link on Oliver Stome Twitter:
https://www.sott.net/article/466340-Retired-Swiss-Military-Intelligence-Officer-Is-it-Possible-to-Actually-Know-What-Has-Been-And-is-Going-on-in-Ukraine
Posted by: daffyDuct | Apr 16 2022 0:43 utc | 130
I have posted this question on another thread: why don’t the Russians pump acetylene down into the ventilation system of the tunnels below Azovstal. When it reaches a concentration of about 1-2% with air the entire mixtures becomes a fuel air explosive that detonates. Gasoline vapor will do the same.
Whosoever hides behind blast doors will have no oxygen left to breathe.
Posted by: bottle | Apr 16 2022 0:43 utc | 131
Oh, Christ, now the goddam filter won’t let me post a Saker link.
b, man, you gotta do something about this filter!
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 0:43 utc | 132
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 23:36 utc | 113
I’ve tried four times now to try to get you the link to The Saker article with the document and the translation I posted there.
The goddamn filter on this site won’t let me do it. So this is what you have to do:
1) Go to The Saker web site.
2) Go to the Speeches, Statements and Interviews section.
3) Scroll down to “The Russian Ministry of Defenсe: original documents – planned offensive operation against Donbass in March of this year” on March 09.
4) Scroll down in the comments to my post where I provide the translation I got from the Sputnik News Telegram channel.
And a curse on all goddamn Web filter algorithms which suck rocks!
RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 0:47 utc | 133
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 0:43 utc | 129
It’s most likely an URL validator that is too strict; look for some obvious problems with the URL link. Have you tried embedding with HREF tags?
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 0:48 utc | 134
CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 0:22 utc | 122
I think that one just goes into the shit happens category. If it was modernized it would be different story, but it seems to have been used just for poking about in the med and the black sea. A couple of brand new smaller ships better suited for that task could probably be built for the price of modernizing the old girl.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 0:49 utc | 135
It seems MI5 and 6 are the most perfidious of perfidious Albion. For some reason, Brits look far more reckless than the US in their desire to start a hot World War.
Without a doubt, the Rs are encouraging her Majesty’s spooks into getting the conflagration started. The puppeteers no doubt have the perfect bunkers, equipped to withstand any nuclear option.
Right there, in their beloved England lest they signal the imminence of a strike by jetting to some Pacific island in the Sun.
They expect to be there again, ready to loan for reconstruction, at ferocious interest rates, of course. They will go from trillions to quadrillions, humanity reduced to the chosen few, lording over the remaining Goys at vitam aeternam.
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 16 2022 0:52 utc | 136
Test
https://thesaker . is/the-russian-ministry-of-defen%d1%81e-original-documents-planned-offensive-operation-against-donbass-in-march-of-this-year/
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 0:54 utc | 137
It scans strings for the base URL of the Saker’s website. Splitting it apart works, for now, as shown above.
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 0:55 utc | 138
The designation of this operation as a “special military operation” shows a drastic error in judgement. This is a proxy-fight against Nato as a whole and a test of the strength of Russian society.
Unless the Russians can step up their game several levels they will end up as the hapless appendix of China for as long as the Chinese still need them and then be smashed to pieces.
Posted by: bottle | Apr 16 2022 1:14 utc | 139
Aaron Mate’s Cohen piece that b linked at one.?
“In 2019, Zelensky was elected on an overwhelming mandate to make peace with Russia. As Stephen F. Cohen warned that year, the US chose to side with Ukraine’s far-right and fuel war.”
This is a little more factual on Kolomoisky’ protege.
https://pete843.substack.com/p/zelensky-and-kolomoisky?s=r
Zelensky and Kolomoisky and their Neo-Nazi paramilitaries
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 1:21 utc | 141
@ THX1138 | Apr 15 2022 16:04 utc | 4
I have not yet read to the end of the thread so this may be redundant…
Regarding offering Jaques Baud’s view to friends and acquaintances who are seeking to be more informed, Aaron Maté interviewed former Swiss intelligence officer and NATO adviser Jacques Baud the other day. This oral presentation may serve the purpose better for some. I prefer the written word but for some an oral interview may be more accessible for whatever causes and conditions.
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/04/15/us-eu-sacrificing-ukraine-to-weaken-russia-fmr-nato-adviser/
Posted by: suzan | Apr 16 2022 1:24 utc | 142
On this satelite photo (Sentinel-1 SAR), from 15:52UTC yesterday, one can see that Moskva is fully engulfed in fire, with what appears to be 2 main centers, one in the stern and another roughly in the center of the ship:
https://t.me/ChDambiev/15382
The imagery is provided by http://www.hisutton.com but it’s not yet published on their website, I guess one needs to pay.
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 1:38 utc | 143
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 1:38 utc | 139
it’s actually on twitter…
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515047555868119044?cxt=HHwWiMC-lbPuw4YqAAAA
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 1:40 utc | 144
More evidence is coming out showing how the Banderite death squads that occupied Mariupol used civilians as human shields, firing from the upper levels of apartments. They also ruthlessly shot at civilians they saw walking in the streets below. You can watch the latest video exposing these Kiev-regime war crimes by clicking the link below:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/mariupol-firing-positions:d
Posted by: Nate | Apr 16 2022 1:44 utc | 145
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 0:55 utc | 135
I’ll try that next time. I think it failed even using the HREF format. It’s just a major pain in the butt to have to debug the damn thing just to make a post.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 1:53 utc | 146
Ukrs used live feed cameras mounted on electric poles for artillery spotting.
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/30816
Posted by: Sydney Abercrombie | Apr 16 2022 1:58 utc | 147
Boo | Apr 16 2022 1:40 utc | 140
I looked up Synthetic aperture radar for detecting fires. It is used for monitoring forest or grass fires by detecting the vegetation change behind the flame front. It doesn’t actually see the flame nor is there mention of it detecting heat.This is just one of a number of articles I looked at.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-56967-x
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 2:01 utc | 148
@Boo 140
Can SAR tell fire (or smoke)? I thought it was a multi scan radar process that can reveal texture or altitude
Posted by: ptb | Apr 16 2022 2:01 utc | 149
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 1:38 utc | 139
How the hell can you see two fires in that picture? It looks like a blob of yellow.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:02 utc | 150
CarlD | Apr 16 2022 0:52 utc | 133
re: run-to bunkers for the Royals and other movers/shakers of, say, the Brits…
Consider that some special-persons had/have a safe, comfortable place to run to escape discomfort and death …makes war more fun…
Western Canada has long been the bolt-hole to run to, just in case the little homeland got really threatened. Thus the remarkable bravado and tough-talk of the [mis-]leaders.
In the case of UK, it’s just a short, easy hop from, say, Shannon[Ireland] to Gander[Newfoundland] with stop at Reykjavik[Iceland] if needed. In WW2, easy-peasy and safe-passage for tough-talkin’ Churchill or Queen or whoever to spur-on the war-fighting spirit of the their left-behind subjects, aka Lownesses. Maybe 10 hours in WW2 or 5+ hours in modern jet.
What’s not to like?
Posted by: chu teh | Apr 16 2022 2:03 utc | 151
From the Covert Shores Web site, there was this update:
Update – Russian Navy Movements In Black Sea April 15
Since the sinking, Russia’s reaction has been subject to speculation. At around 6.30pm local time on April 15 a radar satellite covered Crimea. Two formations of Russian Navy warships, likely including Landing ships, are seen steaming northwest. Their direction suggests that they are sailing towards the Ukrainian coast.
If that’s true, we might be looking at a new operation to seize the southern coast. Too late in the game, perhaps.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:08 utc | 152
Don’t know if this was posted before… It’s no surprise, though. Russia needs to locate and terminate…stat.
SAS troops ‘are training local forces in Ukraine’
Serving British soldiers ‘on ground’ for first time
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sas-troops-are-training-local-forces-in-ukraine-32vs5bjzb
Captain Yuriy Myronenko, whose battalion is stationed in Obolon on the northern outskirts of Kyiv, said that military trainers had come to instruct new and returning military recruits to use NLAWs, British-supplied anti-tank missiles that were delivered in February as the invasion was beginning.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:12 utc | 153
Fire detection.
https://un-spider.org/news-and-events/news/detecting-forest-fires-satellites-modis-and-viirs
Since several years ago, satellites have been used to detect fires. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites has been used to scan the Earth’s surface for fires on a daily basis for almost 15 years. Since 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi NPP satellite has contributed to this effort by producing higher resolution images of the Earth’s surface.
These satellites have similar orbits, but the spatial resolution of their sensor’s thermal bands is different. The thermal band of MODIS has a 1,000 meters resolution per pixel whereas VIIRS has a 375 meters resolution per pixel. This higher resolution enables VIIRS to detect fires that MODIS overlooks. Though VIIRS is a more sensitive instrument when it comes to detecting fires, MODIS provides crisper background images. This is attributed to the fact that MODIS has a 250 meters spatial resolution for other than the thermal bands and thus can produce more detailed land surface images. Nevertheless, VIIRS is well suited tool for monitoring fire activity. It enables scientists and firefighters to model and predict shifts in a fire’s behavior more accurately.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 2:13 utc | 154
From Russian MoD Telegram channel…
According to reliable information, the Kiev regime is preparing another monstrous provocation, similar to the one in Kramatorsk, to accuse Russian servicemen of so-called war crimes with massacres of civilians.
To this end, battalion of the 19th Separate Missile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon launch a Tochka-U attack on an area of refugees concentration at the railway station in Lozovaya.
The missiles will be launched from Staromikhailovka direction to simulate a strike from the territory allegedly controlled by the Russian Armed Forces and Donetsk People’s Republic formations.
Such actions by Ukrainian authorities once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.
We stress in particular that Tochka-U tactical missiles are only used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Taking the above into account, we warn the countries of the so-called “civilised West” led by the US in advance that the Russian Federation has an evidence base of another terrible crime being prepared by the Kiev regime.
Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, Head of the Russian Federation Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response – Head of the National Centre for State Defence Control of the Russian Federation
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #HumanitarianResponse
@mod_russia_en
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:15 utc | 155
Zelensky was looking to negotiate, now not so much – he has been given assurances of some kind. Meanwhile Finns acting stupid. Again this points to wider war. West will be wanting to slow roll until they have something to counter hypersonics – in the short term might be nukes in Finland.
Its been said that Ukraine military in the east is to embed in the cities forcing Russia to dig them out as in Mariupo. I suggest just encircle them and precision aerial attacks on heavy equipment and move focus to other objectives.
Posted by: jared | Apr 16 2022 2:21 utc | 156
This is stupid beyond belief…
Ukraine May Get U.S. MQ-9 Reaper Strike Drones
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=6dbccb005b3b
Note the one little glitch in this plan:
However, there are obstacles to any Ukrainian MQ-9 purchase. The most obvious is training and familiarization: the Ukrainian military is accustomed to operating Russian (actually Soviet-era) equipment rather than Western designs, and the U.S. Air Force requires a year of training for UAV pilots.
However, General Atomics is confident that it could quickly train Ukrainian crews. “Military pilots already familiar with UAV operations could be trained to fly our aircraft quickly,” Brinkley said.
Yeah, right, General Atomics doesn’t give a damn as long as the Reapers get sent over – and then have to be replaced for more profit.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:24 utc | 157
So anyway, if the Russian Army finally closes in on the so-called (NAZI-led) Azov Battalion that was created to ethnically cleanse the essentially Russian population in the East of the Ukraine, they will run into this circle of NAZI planted land mines. But that’s as sword that can cut both ways. The Russians can lay out a ring of land mines just around the NAZI inner ring. So the NAZIs cannot ever get out of the ‘cauldron’. They are then just stuck in there forever. No more ammo for them. Are these people thinking about the next move? Obviously not.
Posted by: blues | Apr 16 2022 2:24 utc | 158
Peter AU1 @ 116
I see Zelensky is now warning that Russia may use tactical nukes. Perhaps its just a bit of empty propaganda but all to often that sort of thing is a warning of a false flag in the making.
Actually the CIA director said that in the newspaper of record yesterday so he is just following the script. I would be more worried abut the several nuclear power stations in the country. I think this is first for the planet. War and nuclear plants side by side and inside the shooting gallery.
Posted by: circumspect | Apr 16 2022 2:28 utc | 159
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 2:01 utc | 144
Posted by: ptb | Apr 16 2022 2:01 utc | 145
Not sure, could be pseudo-colored based on single channel measurement. Also, when you maximize the image it says, “contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data”. Could be a synthesis of the two measurements, I dont work with images and may be way off. It’s prolly good idea to ask H. I. Sutton on twitter (I dont have an account) who also provided this to:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 2:35 utc | 160
More on the reported Ukrainian provocation from Rybar…
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (https://t.me/rybar/31278) about an impending provocation and a strike from Staromikhaylovka on the Lozovaya railway station from the Tochka-U shopping mall in order to accuse the allied forces of Russia and the DPR of deliberately killing civilians.
We learned that the Tochka-U complex arrived not only in the vicinity of Staromikhaylovka, but also in Kramatorsk.
Last night, three rockets for the complex were unloaded in the city, and the 9K79 launcher itself was seen at coordinates 48.739363 37.551041.
It is possible to use the Ukrainian “Point-U” from Kramatorsk.
#Donetsk #Ukraine #Kharkov #goals
@rybar
Let’s be clear right away (https://t.me/rybar/31279): Staromikhailivka is under the control of the DPR forces. And for quite some time now.
The nearest positions of the Ukrainian side are located in the private sector: “Tochka-U”, if the launcher moves to the line of opening fire, it will be perfectly visible. In fact, this is the perfect provocation: throw Tochka-U under the leading edge, deploy and launch. Yes, the risk of losing the launcher is huge. But it will be hard for the allied forces to deny something after this.
But it seems to us that the strike from Kramatorsk is still more real and safer. Yes, and while everyone will be looking at Staromikhaylovka, you can safely take and shoot back from your territory. Though in Donetsk, even in Lozova, even in Slavyansk, even in Gorlovka.
#Donetsk #Ukraine #Kharkov #goals
@rybar
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:39 utc | 161
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:02 utc | 146
I just maximized the image for better viewing, and it appears that at the time this satelite recorded it the intensity of the fire – which I’m assuming has the bright color as higher temperature than the darker color which appears to be at the bow – is highest at the stern (OK, what looks like a stern – the fatter end of ship’s image) and at the center of the ship.
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 2:39 utc | 162
@Nate – 114
Nothing in the RT clips works as reliable evidence. Personally, I don’t outright doubt the authenticity of the interview with Mariupol residents but coming from RT they will not be accepted by wider audiences due to the possibility of staged interview or witness tampering. Russia has clearly made little effort to engage in information warfare, largely conceding the English language coverage of the conflict to the West. However, they still release material on RT and provide video footage of captured prisoners that is clearly meant to support their narrative. In practice, all it does is speak to their devout supporters. It will do nothing to sway those with a negative view of Russia (which may be impossible) but it also does nothing for those in the middle-ground who are open-minded, and it may actually harm perceptions among this group.
I try to maintain a neutral view, but the verifiable facts of the conflict have me leaning strongly toward acceptance of Russian interpretation of key points. Things such as the RT interviews raise questions though. Like Patrick Lancaster’s videos (which I greatly appreciate) they are entirely pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine. I can imagine that many people in the region are honestly expressing such feelings but, after eight years of occupation, I find it hard to believe there are not also residents who support Ukraine. Just as there are pro-Russia residents in some parts of Western Ukraine, so to are there pro-Kiev residents in the East. In Mariupol there must also have been friends or family of the Ukrainian troops stationed there, local girls who dated soldiers, businessmen who benefited from their presence, politicians who collaborated with the stronger side. Without letting/inviting truly independent and neutral journalists into the area and giving them the opportunity to find all the stories of the residents, you have to take what we see with a grain of salt. If 80% of what I heard from Mariupol was pro-Russian and 20% anti-Russian, I would find it far more believable than the current stories. If nothing else, you have to remember this is still a conflict zone and residents are unlikely to say anything that might antagonise the new ‘stronger side’ or invite reprisals.
Similar caveats apply to anything said by captured prisoners. The Englishman in particular is a good example of why this is a bad policy for Russia. Apart from possible infraction of the Geneva Conventions, only preexisting members of the choir will accept it at face value. Those opposed will use it as counter-propaganda to draw comparisons to the North Vietnamese use of American POWs, while those in the middle will recognise that nothing said can be taken as honest and might come from a script provided to the prisoners. It’s bad when Ukraine does it, and equally so when Russia does. In the case of the Englishman, he has an open head wound and speaks in a confused and slurred voice. Perhaps he is naturally slow witted, perhaps it is from drug use, possibly exhaustion or trauma, certainly it might be lingering effects of a concussion; what is clear is that he is in no condition to give an honest and clear-headed interview/confession.
I don’t agree with the apparent Russian strategy of conceding an inability to fight Western propaganda and think there are very cost-effective and efficient ways to counter the widespread lies promoted by Western media. What meagre efforts they are making are, however, in some ways counter-productive and adhere to the old-fashioned “our side in all its heroism and glory; theirs in their barbarity and shame” format of state-sponsored war reporting. Far better if they employ a “warts and all” approach of complete honesty. Take the hits from their errors and possible crimes (such as the numerous stories of Russian soldiers firing on civilian vehicles which each need independent investigation, e.g. Maxism Iovenko, the old couple shot in Makariv, Anastasiia Yalanskaya) and trust that, if Russian culpability is actually shown, in the balance such negative cases will pale in comparison to those of Ukraine.
Frankly there is a danger that even places such as this, which I feel is similar to myself, attempting to maintain neutrality but biased (due to obvious and excessive Western disinformation) towards Russian perspectives, can become an echo chamber. It might be good to see ‘b’ post a story highlighting what Russia has done wrong so far (e.g. incidents of firing on civilians, civilian deaths from strikes artillery positions in residential areas, questionable use of POWs, etc.). None of these things preclude Russian innocence, or justification for actions, but such negativity, where it exists, also needs to be highlighted in in the interests of even-handed and informative coverage.
Posted by: Brannagyn | Apr 16 2022 2:46 utc | 163
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 2:39 utc | 158
At full size of the image, I see nothing but a yellow blob with a green spot at one point. Not buying two fires. This picture is useless.
RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:51 utc | 164
@ circe #32: “We agree on a lot, but a ship is a mere thing you can break compared to the spirit of triumph and the will to survive.”
My main concern about the ship is that admitting it was sunk due to enemy fire puts Putin politically and the Russian military generally under more pressure to expand their theater of operations and attack NATO more directly which in turn can be the pretext to trigger Article 5 wider participation on the part of the latter which essentially means no more ‘Special Military Operation,’ rather outright war. I believe that is why MoD is being vague about what happened. I don’t think it’s a big deal either way since in war stuff is happening all the time, good and bad. And the reason there IS a war is that two (or more) sides can no longer function by accommodation, delay, negotiation, avoidance etc. and so they have to fight it out. And it is ALWAYS uncertain which side will win.
I would like to have faith in Putin as a truly great world leader. But I don’t. Although I have a little Belorussian blood it is that of a Rabbi in the 1800’s (which might count against me here!) so that doesn’t count for much. Some forebears signed the Declaration of Independence and were Presidents though, so I should be gung-ho for America but am not. I don’t think America is a representative republic anymore and has become a danger to the entire planet. The Western ‘AngloZionist’ ruling classes need to be overthrown and if the Eurasian thrust currently being led kinetically by this kerfuffle in Ukraine does the trick, I’m all for it. But I am not yet convinced that the clearly deliberate collapsing of the US AND this war and upcoming wars in the Pacific aren’t some sort of deliberately executed grand scheme to destroy the current order in order to herald in a new one, nor am I convinced yet that the new one being proposed by Russia and China is necessarily all that grand. There are too many questions unasked and unanswered, indeed almost nothing is known apart from the Belt and Road initiative which is mainly a logistical proposition, not a politico-social one. I greatly admire ancient Chinese culture, being a Buddhist for decades now, but do not trust modern Chinese leadership in the slightest so am not sure I find the prospect of China being part of the team that finally slays the wicked witch of the West (which does indeed need to happen) and then dictating what happens thereafter. Maybe it will all be benign and harmoniously multipolar but world history is so replete with bipolar pathocracies and other hells that I cannot help but have reservations about the whole thing. I need to see more. I can hope it will all turn out well, but no more than that. I am also highly suspicious lest we are all being fooled – yet again.
Indeed, at this point am not yet convinced yet that this is anything more than a phony war. Indeed, going back to the ship, she was very old and not apparently good for any high-caliber modern warfare so no big deal especially since casualties were minimal apparently. But thus far about 10,000 dead on both sides after 6 months? That’s peanuts, frankly (though not for those whose lives were sacrificed of course). The US is run by actors and has been since 2017; Ukraine has an actor as President too. Who is to say how much of all this is staged? Yes, real people are suffering and dying in Donbass and real people just suffered and died and some were rescued in Mariupol. But this is a global geopolitical event and what happens on the ground in a few small spots though of great and real human interest is relatively unimportant. The US is a phony republic with a phony President as is Ukraine. This really might be a phony war too.
A small note about rough seas: although have never sailed in Black Sea it is even more enclosed than the Med. It doesn’t take much wind to raise quite a nasty chop. If she was breached not far above the water-line then such a chop could sink her. That would imply that the breach was far too large to be patched. For all we know she hit a big mine at the waterline but I suspect that article in Southfront got it right: there was coordination with NATO surveillance in the mix.
Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 16 2022 2:54 utc | 165
As far as the western public is concerned, these 40 some days of Special Operation have demonstrated that the Russian Bear has been overhyped and is nothing but an inept paper tiger, worthy of derision.
Far from being the chess master he was reputed to be, VVP has fallen to the rank of mediocre player of lower board games.
This, unfortunately, whether right or wrong brings us closer to an all out nuclear conflagration. Russia’s enemies have been emboldened by the “ineffectiveness” of the Russian operation against what is perceived (erroneously) by the public as a feeble adversary considering the assumed might of the Russian Federation.
According to US doctrine, invading forces must outnumber the resisting forces by a factor of three. In other words, assuming 200,000 troops in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the US would have deployed 600,000 troops. An overwhelming number.
The RF did not even reach parity with the attacked. Quality of troops would have to be really outstanding to expect a favorable outcome to an invasion. Moreover, the presence of foreign trainers and foreign equipment should have been taken into account. On top of this, Intelligence assistance to Ukraine by the NATO forces should have weighted heavily in the presumption of fighting abilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The least that can be said is that the RF generals grossly underestimated the viciousness of the enemies, aptly described as wolverines.
Air superiority does give an advantage to the Russian Air Force but it must face growing risks of attrition as foreign equipment reaches the battlefield.
When it comes to the British manpads, it would appear that it is not as usable at night since the target must be clearly visible to the operator. Maybe this will encourage night operations.
Anyway, what could have been already over will fester for a long time and be very costly to all concerned.
I wish I were wrong.
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 16 2022 2:59 utc | 166
Posted by: Brannagyn | Apr 16 2022 2:46 utc | 159
There is another process at work – the self-selection bias. The ppl that are interviewed are most likely those that want to stay under Russian admin, and/or are Russian speakers with relatives in the East of Ukraine or Russia proper mostly or only. Those that don’t want to stay under Russian rule have already departed West. So you end up with interviews that overwhelmingly support Russia, although I saw in Patrick’s videos few people that were blaming the Russians as well for the mess and were saying we’re Ukranians.
And on your larger point, about covering the Russian mistakes, agreed, it’s time to be analytical.
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 3:05 utc | 167
@156 @160
Yea that isn’t the best pic. And did they add the blue fuzz? Where are the swells, wouldn’t they make an interference pattern that looks like something?
Anyway, I’m not qualified to say at all, but until I hear otherwise, very tentatively assuming the IR sensors on the satellite were blocked by clouds, that the color is an attempt to represent algo whose purpose is to extract “non-water-object” from the sea surface based on altitude and other radar data, and that yellow is a smoke cloud. Almost looks to me like the detail shows just the one ship, north-to-south, with single plume of smoke from the fire (with imaging artifacts above and below it) getting blown by a wind from SW? But no scale in the detail view so kinda hard to say anything.
Posted by: ptb | Apr 16 2022 3:12 utc | 168
Generals and superpower Presidents popping up here like flies around a sheeps arse.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 3:12 utc | 169
Biden is a puppet. People are making tons of money through the US Ukraine war.
https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1514691339639791629?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1514715793174540292%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.chinatimes.com%2Frealtimenews%2F20220416001296-260408
After Biden finished his speech, he turned around and tried to shake hands with thin air and then wandered around looking confused
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Apr 16 2022 3:13 utc | 170
Haven’t watched this yet… From Scott Ritter’s Telegram channel…
The War in Ukraine and the Collapsing World Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrMJoRDfRFI
Zeinab Ghasemi
1.38K subscribers
The War in Ukraine and the Collapsing World Order
Watch this in-depth discussion with distinguished guests:
Alastair Crooke
Former EU senior diplomat and the founder and director of Conflicts Forum.
Scott Ritter
Former US Marine Corps Intelligence officer and UN Chief Weapons Inspector.
Max Blumenthal
American Journalist, author, blogger, and editor of The Grayzone website.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi
Professor of English literature and Orientalism, University of Tehran.
Hosted by the Institute for North American & European Studies (INAES)
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 3:15 utc | 171
Ran across this while looking up the video noted above… From the Commonwealth Club of California here in San Francisco…
Stephen F. Cohen: The Ukrainian Crisis – It’s not All Putin’s Fault (Recorded in 2015)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pUj3Vqptx8
Why Cold War Again?
Stephen F. Cohen, Professor Emeritus, Russian Studies and Politics, New York University and Princeton University; Contributing Editor, The Nation
In conversation with Dr. Gloria Duffy, President and CEO, The Commonwealth Club
The consensus view in Washington and in the U.S. mainstream media is that the Ukrainian crisis, which some have called the worst international crisis of our time, is due solely to Russian aggression under President Vladimir Putin. Stephen F. Cohen’s view, on the other hand, is that U.S. policy since the 1990s is largely responsible, and that unless this is acknowledged at least in part by Washington, no successful negotiated end to the crisis will be possible.
Professor Cohen’s Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War and his The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin are now in paperback. Come hear the provocative views of this influential and noted Russian scholar.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 3:19 utc | 172
Peter AU1
Would you have a particular General and or Super President in mind?
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 16 2022 3:20 utc | 173
Russia will win in one to three weeks. Get used to that.
Posted by: blues | Apr 16 2022 3:23 utc | 174
Posted by: ptb | Apr 16 2022 3:12 utc | 164
Again, not an image analysis guy, although I analyze and model with other kinds of data. This is not a 3D image so no extraction of height/dimensions is possible. It’s most likely single channel measurement (may be with some help provided by other data) post-processed to create the illusion of temperature gradient, the blue/dark blue/black is the temp. gradient of the water, the swells are not well defined since the temp gradient has lower resolution across the water. The bright colors show the other side of the scale which is not given so we dont know what the temp is at the higher end, could be 100 deg. C, or 1000, for example, but we dont know. The green color is some slightly elevated temperature around the ship, could be the other ship they mention.
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 3:23 utc | 175
CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 2:39 utc | 157
Apparently phone messages were being sent out for people to gather at the train station or whatever similar to messages being sent to phones in Donetsk to gather at a certain point prior to the Tochka strike there.
Re the number of BTG’s involved from some time back. The Chechen forces in Donbass don’t even show on that map. At the moment there are Chechens at Mariupol and two places on the donbas front. Originally there were 5000 for Mariupol ad 5000 at Kiev. Kadyrov has since sent another 5000. I would put that now at 5000 at Mariupol possibly as that is winding down, the balance 10,000 at two positions on the donbas front – minus casualties. Those numbers on the donbas front are simply not showing on the BTG groups map.
Ritter may be a little high in his numbers but that BTG map I think will be far too low.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 3:26 utc | 176
Good tactical speculations:
http://johnhelmer.org/ukraine-is-smashed-this-is-how-it-will-be-repaired/
Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 16 2022 3:29 utc | 177
Nobody’s ever going to produce fair and balanced reporting from a war zone unless their editor allows it. And it’s not like you’re going to go door to door with an impromptu opinion poll. There are plenty of interviews where people are mad at everyone or don’t have a real political opinion, they just want a place with food and water. Many political opinions will be formed by the events when the shock wears off. If there’s a problem with the journalism it’s that many times they ask leading questions like mentioning Azov rather than it being open ended. But that’s pretty minor; there are only two choices.
The tell is that nothing is better for ratings than live war coverage. Notice that the western media isn’t covering anything from the front, no embeds, no nothing. Mostly dorks in flak jackets in front of green screens to look like they’re in Kiev, or full battle gear in Lvov while the locals are just milling around. Russian media is happy to tell the story (slanted as it may be) but the west’s strategy is to not let the story be told except by “Ukrainian sources” and innuendo. The west’s propaganda is based on containing information to make sure that nobody can form an independent opinion. Call it the Free Press Firewall.
Posted by: Lex | Apr 16 2022 3:30 utc | 178
To fellow barflies:
I am getting some flak from some that read very superficially and refrain from paying attention to what is written.
My reflection expressed at 162 starts with :”As far as the western public is concerned”, which, unfortunately, I failed to underline.
Therefore, I am stating what the general public perceives and not only the general public but some political and military analysts do think at this point.
Not my own point of view.
I wish the special operation were already over with and peace restored. I am confident the RF will ultimately prevail for the benefit of mankind as a whole.
But I reserve my right to see reality, even if I am not pleased by what I see.
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 16 2022 3:35 utc | 179
Very important section of an article on Southfront re the Moskva incident.
My emphasis and comments in [….].
3. The main direction of the AFU offensive becomes the South of Ukraine, the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Britain has repeatedly made it clear that Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, primarily Odessa, are of strategic importance. The Donbass is also being reinforced in order to exhaust Russian and allied forces. The AFU grouping, which has been strengthening for seven years, is far from being depleted.
[So if Odessa is so important, why have the Russians left the port intact, and not put massive amounts of intelligence on the ground?]
4. The Dnepropetrovsk region, as the political center in Southern Ukraine, which links all the surrounding regions, turns into another military coordination center.
[Wherever that center is; shouldn’t it already be decommissioned? I mean Phase 2 is just about to start!]
5. Crimea becomes a priority target for the AFU and NATO operations. This confirms the Pentagon’s statement that the U.S. will provide Kiev with intelligence information on targets in Crimea and Donbass.
[I trust Crimean port areas are continuously monitored and naval assets protected?]
Not only the Black Sea Fleet, but also facilities and forces of the Crimean ground grouping will come under attack. It is critical for the AFU to paralyze the logistics and resupply of the “southern” grouping of the Russian Armed Forces operating from Kherson.
All this is very serious. Preemptive action is urgently required. I wrote yesterday that Russia has to step up air and ground intelligence since the Pentagon is absolutely directing Ukraine’s military operations.
In 2002, the OSP (Office of Special Plans) was set up by Wolfowitz and Feith to direct intelligence on Iraq. In 2006, The Iranian Directorate or Directorate for Iran was a unit of The Pentagon created to deal with intelligence on Iran.
You can bet money, there is a unit inside the Pentagon solely dealing with intelligence on Russia and directing this war by proxy!
After reading all this, here’s what I see in the rear view mirror: a port on the Black Sea engulfed in flames. Who will act first and which port will it be?
Posted by: Circe | Apr 16 2022 3:39 utc | 181
CarlD | Apr 16 2022 3:20 utc | 169
I don’t have favorites. One thing about Russia. When nothing visible is happening, you just have to hurry up and wait. It was the same when Russia moved into Syria – Russia Should do this, Russia should do that especially during what seemed to be pauses. Russia’s actions are in the interests of the people of the Russian federation nobody else’s.
Ukraine will get its spring clean – don’t worry too much how Russia goes about it. Here we have the fog of information warfare but it is directed at us by our governments. That is just water of a ducks back for Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 3:43 utc | 182
A dynamic list of conversations that go against the western narrative of the war. This list will be updated continuously
This has most of the articles and YouTube interviews I’ve seen here.
Posted by: Will | Apr 16 2022 3:54 utc | 183
Posted by: Circe | Apr 16 2022 3:39 utc | 177
Circe, thanks. This post that you cite from southfront is published on 15th, and I saw exactly the same reasoning and pictures on these telegram channels, in Russian, on the 14th, a day before:
https://t.me/genshab/553
https://t.me/atomiccherry/429
https://t.me/atomiccherry/430
I suspect that either these Russians are working for southfront, thus I have been using acceptable data to make judgements, or as I feel more likely, Southfront is using their OSINT analysis without attribution which will be a dick move.
Posted by: Boo | Apr 16 2022 3:57 utc | 184
Peter AU1 178
Thanks for your pointers towards understanding Russia’s actions and omissions. I had in mind that Russia is slow to saddle the horse but once it does it goes like the wind.
But as you say, I will wait and see. I will forbid myself to think on my own and wait for a Deus ex machina.
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 16 2022 4:01 utc | 185
It might be good to see ‘b’ post a story highlighting what Russia has done wrong so far (e.g. incidents of firing on civilians, civilian deaths from strikes artillery positions in residential areas, questionable use of POWs, etc.). None of these things preclude Russian innocence, or justification for actions, but such negativity, where it exists, also needs to be highlighted in in the interests of even-handed and informative coverage.
Posted by: Brannagyn | Apr 16 2022 2:46 utc | 159
And would “what Russia has done wrong” merely be opinions like everything here is already?
Thanks but no thanks.
I can figure it out for myself without the inevitable holier than though exceptionalist POV that comes with “what Russia is doing wrong”. I think having a space to freely communicate about and support Russia is a good thing and most welcome. This business of having to always present “both sides” is bullshit. There are as many “sides” as people’s opinions.
Here there are already many intelligent armchair generals and ex military etc in the room who provide endless versions, links and interpretations of current events to inform everyone.
Posted by: K | Apr 16 2022 4:03 utc | 186
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 3:26 utc | 172
Thanks for the info. Wasn’t aware the Chechens were up to 15,000 now.
I did read about the phone messages on one of the Telegram channels. If something works, don’t change it, apparently.
Posted by: Circe | Apr 16 2022 3:39 utc | 177
“After reading all this, here’s what I see in the rear view mirror: a port on the Black Sea engulfed in flames. Who will act first and which port will it be?”
If that’s their plan, it’s idiotic. They’re not going to be able to “paralyze the logistics” in Crimea. They don’t have the firepower for that. Even if they did, what’s to stop Russia from simply shipping everything through the Donbass? If Ukraine had any ability to do this stuff, they would have done it before now. So I dismiss that whole plan.
Further, if you look at my recent post above, there is reportedly a satellite photo showing two groups of Russian war ships leaving Sevastopol heading for the Ukrainian coast, possibly including landing ships. If true, I suspect a new front on Odessa. Since the alleged Ukrainian missiles that supposedly hit the “Moskva” allegedly came from around Odessa and/or Nikolaev, that whole area may be due for a new offensive. Even if they didn’t, the Russians may now be alert for some such move as Southfront suggests, and they are moving to forestall it.
Either way, I don’t think any of that is going to alter the outcome. The Brits are just hallucinating, as usual.
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 16 2022 4:07 utc | 187
Circe | Apr 16 2022 3:39 utc | 177
Ye of little faith 🙂 Amongst other things, Russia has now brought in electronic warfare units. Russia is seriously upping the anti which is why we have this long intermission in the war movie. Perhaps Russia will still take a few losses. This is WWIII. Try watching a honey badger raiding a bee hive. Or killing a snake for lunch.
It gets to me too at times Circe and sometimes is best to step back and look at the big picture – the forest rather than the trees.
Soviet union/Russia – fighting the good fight?
Afghanistan (original made in America Islamic extremism)- break up of the soviet union was a mess – then the second Chechen war (Made in America islamic extremism), Syria (made in america islamic extremism), and now Ukraine nazi’s (made in america nazi’s).
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 4:19 utc | 189
@ #4 THX 1138
Not an article but there’s a you tube video called
“Scott Ritter: A Conversation About Ukraine Part 1” It is an EXCELLENT source (imo) & covers history going back to WW2 & the Polish / Galicia / Nazi tie in. It’s 58 minutes long but an hour well spent especially for someone with zero understanding & fed on a MSM diet. He also covers the Russian tactics that rebuts the Western “Russia is losing” narrative. A second video (part 2) covers the Bucha provocation along with other info. I highly recommend it.
Part 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fNrnWxXhP0
Part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQSTHvD2z1c
Posted by: Kiwikris | Apr 16 2022 4:24 utc | 190
Another explanation to the destruction of ” Moskva”.
( machine translation)
From Maduro is not stupid
“What happened to the cruiser Moskva (project 1164, launched in 1979, put into service in 1982) can be characterized as a planned action. Planners are not in Ukraine. The target designation of the anti-ship missiles was provided by the complexes of the NATO aerospace group. …
I continue the theme with the cruiser “Moscow”. In addition to its main purpose – the destruction of KUG and AUG, it provides long-range air defense for a ship strike group (KUG) (S-300F “Fort”, air target detection range – 300 km)
Now a brief analysis :
Combat mission (version): Carrying out combat duty 100-120 km from Odessa, the Moskva cruiser could control the airspace within a radius of 250-300 km with its onboard air defense, blocking with its radar field the southern half of Moldova, the space from Izmail to Odessa and part the territory of Romania (including the port of Constanta).
Most likely, our cruiser interfered with the secret transfer of military aircraft (helicopters and planes) from the territory of Romania to the territory of Ukraine.
Our cruiser was observed from space, NATO air reconnaissance worked on it.
The destruction of the flagship of the fleet is a strategic task and, of course, the most powerful argument in propaganda.
Apparently, therefore, the operation of delivering anti-ship missiles to Odessa took place in strict secrecy and under the cover of electronic warfare.
Who was chosen as the “killer”? Information about anti-ship missiles “Neptune” – is distributed by Ukrainian propaganda for cover. Why spend money and resources on secrecy for the sake of Neptune? Why is the US expressing its “concern and innocence”? They cover their tracks and here’s why.
I think that the fifth-generation NSM anti-ship missiles (Naval Strike Missile, range – 185 km, developed by Norway-USA) were chosen as the “killer”.
Why this rocket? Because the Anglo-Saxons needed a 100% result.
NSM is able to reach the target along the programmed route thanks to the GPS-corrected INS, independently finds the target, flying up to it at a height of 3-5 meters. When reaching the target, the NSM maneuvers and puts electronic interference. As a GOS – a highly sensitive thermal imager that determines the vulnerabilities of the target ship.
As a launcher, a stationary container installation could be used, which was brought to Ukraine.
Consequences:
After the critical damage to the Moskva cruiser, which led to flooding during a storm, NATO reopened an air corridor for the transfer of aircraft to the airfields of the Chernivtsi, Transcarpathian and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
After the retirement of the cruiser Moskva, there is no longer a single ship with a long-range anti-aircraft missile system in the Black Sea Fleet (fact).
But not everything is as bad as the picture of alarmists and all-weapons paints.
Russia has a three-band radar “Nebo-M”, which sees all air targets (up to 200) at a distance of up to 600 km. From the Crimean peninsula – it will “finish off” to the city of Chernivtsi. Do not forget about the AWACS A-50U aircraft.
Any loss makes us wiser and stronger, and the wounds of the winners do not hurt!
edited 23:22 ”
Posted by: ka | Apr 16 2022 4:34 utc | 191
Ka, 186
Agree 100 percent with this version of events. The Ukrainian would not have been able to strike
the MOSKVA on their own.
In a preceding post in a previous issue, I stressed the need for the RF to take down the Global Hawk and other intelligence gathering aircraft over the Black Sea and the bordering states.
It is still time to do so.
Posted by: CarlD | Apr 16 2022 4:49 utc | 192
CarlD | Apr 16 2022 4:01 utc | 180
“I will forbid myself to think on my own and wait for a Deus ex machina.”
you gotta think on your own to find your way to a place of mind fornication such as b’s bar.
Thanks for taking my comment that way. difficult at times to put thoughts into writing.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 4:56 utc | 193
Posted by: Circe | Apr 16 2022 3:39 utc | 177
You can see the Russian progress also this way !
(“Nightvision” has his own ” Sitrep: Operation Z” column on the Saker site, as many knows by now.
Here is his answer to one lengthy question.)
Nightvision on April 15, 2022 · at 12:11 am EST/EDT
I get your general take but I believe you’re overreacting a bit. The first part of what you wrote basically chimes with what I wrote in the analysis, which is what Ukraine’s goal is in accomplishing these assymetric strikes.
As for Mariupol and the like, firstly Mariupol itself is not really reflective of the Russian military which has a minor role there (a small marine detachment). The DPR with its legendary Somali / Sparta battalions and others are doing the heavy lifting in the Mariupol fight by far, and the Chechens are adding a little extra. And while Chechens are Russians, the Chechen unit there is not really even a real military unit but is Rosgvardia, i.e. “National Guard”. Which means they have no real heavy armament, no equipment etc, mostly just a lightly armed ground force. Though they are performing spendidly but my point being that the actual Russian army is not involved much in Mariupol.
Secondly, you have to understand cities take a very long time to siege and fall. As I’ve mentioned before, Aleppo, Sarajevo, etc took years to capture. The first battle of Fallujah took about a month for U.S. to capture the city, and that’s with a tiny enemy force of like 3000, compare that to Mariupol’s 20,000 or so which it started out with. The Second Battle of Fallujah later that year when U.S. had to retake the city after abandoning it, took almost 2 months, once again against a much tinier force where the U.S. actually had double the strength of the enemy.
And no offense to the Iraqi’s but they’re no where near the strength of Azov/Ukraine in terms of just pure armament.
So in short, the battle of Mariupol is actually going very fast for a siege of a city that’s actually double the size/population of Fallujah too.
The one thing most people don’t know is that the real war hasn’t even begun yet. Phase 1 was primarily a light recon ground assault operation which is why I’ve heard statistics (as mentioned several times) that 80% of RF losses were VDV forces. The 2 major battles of the ‘war’ so far were around Kiev and the Kherson push and both were primarily VDV light forces, whereas the 4th Guards Tank army etc slowly secured the eastern Kiev flank but didn’t really engage in any major battles like the Bucha guys did.
So in short what I’m saying is, you haven’t even seen the real Russian army yet. Russia’s light airborne forces alone destroyed 90% of the Ukrainian military. Now you are about to see the actual Russian army with its full artillery, tank armies, etc potential and you’ll see how badly Ukraine is wrecked.
Posted by: ka | Apr 16 2022 5:19 utc | 194
Since shortly after this started, Russian strategic forces have been on 24 hour highest alert. Yanks have defcon numbers for this stuff – whatever. Russia is playing for keeps. Many genuine comments dismissive of Russia…. we are heading into the unknown. Changing of an era, changing of the balance of power in the nuclear age.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 5:20 utc | 195
Check this narrative from Thierry Meyssan on voltairenet.org: https://www.voltairenet.org/article216406.html
“The alliance of MI6, the CIA and the Banderites” + Jihadis against “communisme” = our competition for world dominance.
Posted by: Antonym | Apr 16 2022 5:30 utc | 196
ka | Apr 16 2022 5:19 utc | 189
Thats one of nightvision’s posts I don’t think much of. Russian military can be destruction on steroids. Chechen special forces are urban combat on steroids.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 16 2022 5:34 utc | 198
@190 Peter AU1
Ah yes, another dash by B-52’s into arena. It is a new era indeed
US Air Force strategic bombers tried to scare Russia and Belarus with an unexpected appearance
Posted by: circumspect | Apr 16 2022 5:42 utc | 199