Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 14, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-46

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

Posted by b on April 14, 2022 at 14:39 UTC | Permalink

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No evidence of Any missile strike whatsoever!! Stop with the nonsense! Ukie.. Norwegian..British...simply nothing. Saying "most likely" means you have Nothing. Let's give that a rest...ok?

Posted by: Nook | Apr 15 2022 2:31 utc | 201

Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 14 2022 23:30 utc | 164

Russia is talking about taking out decision makers,not Military targets.
Political figures,who then pass their decisions to Military.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 15 2022 2:33 utc | 202

@ Ludovic | Apr 15 2022 1:24 utc | 184

The sinking of the General Belgrano (ex-USS Phoenix) in 1982 was if anything a sin against the history of naval architecture. That ship should have been a museum ship even back then; it was completely obsolete. It was largely used as a training ship, no doubt so the cadets could taste glorious naval history by riding on a big warship of yore, much the way tall sailing ships are even today still used as training ships, even though they have all but disappeared otherwise. The Belgrano's sinking was certainly of no military significance in the war, which is why the action of the British submarine captain was even criticized at the time for being gratuitous and unnecessary. Of course, it may be that it didn't help Argentine morale, but it wasn't the main reason for their defeat. That was because the Royal Navy won control of the sea, despite its unexpectedly large losses, trapping the Argentine army forces on the islands.

The situation of Russia today is utterly unlike Argentina in the Falklands War, despite the resemblance of the cases of the Belgrano and the Moskva as old, obsolete white elephants. Russian forces are not trapped on islands way out in a sea controlled by the enemy; they are not on islands at all. It is a land war. Now, even if we supposed the Russian forces were bogged down by unexpected resistance, etc., as in the MSM discourse, it still wouldn't mean Russia is losing or has lost, because all they have to do is dig in and sit where they are, where they will have the defender's advantage. I do not think that is what will happen next, but even if it did, the ball would still be in Ukraine's court to offer something in exchange for peace.

I agree with you entirely about the disaster of Argentina in the Falklands War validating the English Tories and making Thatcher into a heroine, etc. If it were true that the same principle is operating in the Ukraine war as well, then I would agree that the invasion was a mistake, that is, if the upshot of it was a validation and relegitimation of NATO and US militarism. But at this stage, that outcome is not at all clear to me. Because Russia possesses the Great Equalizer (nuclear parity with the US), it is ultimately militarily invulnerable; it cannot be conquered or invaded, and it will abidingly be there, unless the ultimate disaster overwhelms all, when no one wins and nothing will make a difference. US warmongers may dream of "regime change" all they like, but whoever is in charge in Russia won't ever matter, because even the most milquetoast liberals will never give up nuclear parity, and the Russian military will weigh in on that too.

It also looks like the sanctions are massively going to backfire, or at the very least ruin Europe, so it is far from clear that the US and NATO can extract any kind of "victory" out of this in any sense. What has happened so far seems to express a kind of panic on the US and NATO side, because this is a war like no other, ever, and they don't seem to be up to it. It is likely that the existing political arrangements in the West, already in decline aren't going to survive the coming storm. While Russia is not really causing this directly, because the deterioration was already in process, it may be acting as a catalyst. In particular, the Russians bringing up the wall of their possessing the Great Equalizer, even though a fact since 1949, has completely humiliated the US power elite and enraged them, because they don't like being reminded that their "full spectrum dominance" project is stillborn and thoroughly incapable of implementation. Should their attempts now to enforce conformity on the world lead to a general revolt, as seems quite possible, though not certain, their loss will be very serious indeed, whereas Russia doesn't have any overseas empire to lose.

Posted by: Cabe | Apr 15 2022 2:35 utc | 203

@ Marjorie | Apr 14 2022 19:08 utc | 95

"They say that the Russian plans are mysterious, for my part I find the plans of the West incomprehensible.
In my opinion they did not expect this one."

Good point. They expected they could control it, but it got completely out of hand.

Posted by: Cabe | Apr 15 2022 2:47 utc | 204

The issue of the Moskva is one of propaganda. There is no information on what happened yet everyone is free with their fears and fantasies. What good does that do?? It was not important to the outcome in ukistan. Period. But it serves as a distraction and demoralizer...well...at least amongst the western centered allegedly pro Russia faction online. I know there are people online who care more about optics and ego than they do about facts on the ground. Concern trolls? Idiots? Know nothing's? Whatever they are they mean nothing to the history that is unfolding now. Patience and some intelligence will save you some grief.

Posted by: Nook | Apr 15 2022 2:48 utc | 205

Testimony Reveals Zelensky’s Secret Police Plot to ‘Liquidate’ Opposition Figure Anatoly Shariy (MintPress News, Dan Cohen, April 14, 2022)

The article doesn’t prove that the SBU plans to kill Shariy—only that it tried to embed a spy in his close circle to find out his daily routine activities. However, the article is still a must-read, as it touches on many more topics than just this latest attempt to spy on Shariy.

Posted by: S | Apr 15 2022 2:53 utc | 206

@Ludovic

“Since the beginning of Russia's war of aggression I've had the bizarre feeling that Russia is playing against itself and thereby against its future, and in a sense that is not at all just figurative or parabolic.”

Ah, yes, you’re quite right. Russia should’ve sat back and embraced a new reality of Nazis with nukes.

Denazification will continue, with Mariupol as the prototype. Go cry about it if you must.

Posted by: line islands | Apr 15 2022 3:07 utc | 207

@ Altai | Apr 14 2022 21:44 utc | 146

Regarding the stupidity of Sean Penn you have reported:

What needs to be shoved constantly in the face of every American advocate of intervention, escalation, and use of nuclear weapons every day without letup is the truth about the US-Russia nuclear parity, that is, that each country possesses something like 5,000-6,000 nuclear warheads and is hence militarily invulnerable, because if faced with an existential threat to its existence, it can merely shoot off its nuclear arsenal, negating everything the other side has. Such an attack would be successful in destroying the other, because there is no defense against the missiles carrying those warheads. In fact, the US has even given up on the idea of trying to defend against a mass missile attack, and so the country is open to what amounts to annihilation every day and night continuously, as it has been for more than 55 years, since the mid-1960s. While some argue about how a few prepared persons might conceivably be able to survive such an attack, it is without dispute that nevertheless the destruction would be almost total; no existing political or economic arrangements would survive in the new, unpleasant, and utterly impoverished world, nor could there conceivably be any "victory" whatever.

Posted by: Cabe | Apr 15 2022 3:08 utc | 208

Two points:

1) The helicopter strikes inside Russia: Why would Ukraine deny them? Simple explanation: They are not the ones authorizing them. Either it's the CIA using Ukrainian choppers and mercenary pilots, or 2) it's the neo-Nazis coercing local Ukrainian commanders to do it, or 3) it is local Ukrainian commanders doing it on their own accord. If it's 1), then the goal is to get Russia to strike at Kiev, thus escalating the war for the purpose of increasing Biden's intentions to get the US directly involved.

2) The ship: We'll never know for two reasons: 1) if it was a fire and not sabotage, which I really doubt, then it looks bad for Russia, but 2) not as bad as a missile strike, whether that was Neptunes or some other doesn't matter. If it was a missile strike, Russia screwed up. They should have assured there was no such capability by Ukraine since the existence of Neptunes in Ukraine was known for years. If it was a fire, then someone on ship screwed up, which is OK, but still looks bad in the middle of a major military operation.

I still give credence to the missile option. Why? Because Martyanov changed his opinion today on the possible causes. He suggest 1) internal sabotage, like that US Navy ship that burned due to a disgruntled sailor; frankly I doubt that' and 2) "impacts" on the ship.

What the HELL are "impacts on the ship"? Well, IMO, Martyanov is hinting that it was a missile, despite his dismissal of the idea earlier. Either he has to accept that the crew screwed up and started a fire that ended up sinking the ship - which looks bad for his old alma mater - or he has to acknowledge the possibility of a missile.

Not that it matters. We'll never know because the Russians will never admit it, because it looks really bad either way. Anyway, by Monday it will be old news.

Now let's talk about some real news:

1) The US is allegedly considering sending either Biden or Harris to Kiev. Just imagine what sort of shit-show that could turn out to be? How do you get even the VP inside Ukraine without a major military escort in addition to the Secret Service? Of course, if Zelenskyy is really in Poland, you certainly can do that.

2) The US is sending even heavier weapons, not from NATO stocks, but from US stocks to Ukraine. Now that doesn't matter because all that crap will be blown up before it gets to the battlefield. The point is, as Alexander Mercouris said yesterday in his Youtube video, that Biden appears to be as obsessed with Ukraine as Lyndon Johnson was with Vietnam. And as Mercouris points out, we all know what happened then - the US entered the war. He's concerned that the US will be dragged into this war because Biden can't take the defeat if Russia wins.

I consider that a valid concern. I've been saying all along that we don't know what Biden intends, despite all his "reassurances" that no US troops will be sent to Ukraine. Biden is a fucking liar. Nothing - absolutely nothing - he says can be believed, no more so than any other US President for decades. Even if Biden is hesitant to send US troops directly, he keeps making comments about "responses" and "red lines".

Remember Obama? The "peace President" who almost started a war with Syria over "chemical weapons" until Putin outmaneuvered him by getting Assad to dump his chemical weapons and the Congress pushed back? Obama was within hours of launching a war in 2013 IIRC. He tried THREEE TIMES to get a UNSC Resolution authorizing US military action in Syria, and THREE TIMES tried to impose a no-fly zone over Syria, stymied each time by Putin who threatened to shoot down US planes.

So, no, I don't trust Biden not to get the US involved in Ukraine directly. Even if he is hesitant, the neocons around him are putting immense pressure on him, and their CIA and MI6 friends keep pushing incidents in Ukraine to "justify" direct NATO involvement - which, given the military balance between NATO and Russia, must inevitably end up with direct US involvement.

Yes, the Pentagon appears to be fighting the White House and the State Department. But in the end, the Pentagon will do what it's ordered to do.

Right now, we have a mental defective who is deeply embedded in Ukraine's corruption and a horde of rabid anti-Russian ex-Trotskyite neocons pushing for outright war.

A side note: It doesn't matter whether the Ukrainians are putting their artillery and armor inside towns in the Donbass. The Russians aren't going to be doing house-to-house in this campaign. As Ritter says, it's going to be mailed fist. Heavy artillery first on Ukrainian positions, followed by massed armor smashing through the line in echelon after echelon, breaking left and right, encircling positions and destroying them one at a time. Someone today, I forget who, said the probability of 30,000 Ukraine prisoners was very likely and that this alone will present a problem in terms of processing them.

Ritter said in an interview that after hearing Peskov say "horrible losses" that he was concerned that Russia might not have the "political will" to finish the job. I think the hardening attitude in Russia, from what Mercouris says reading Russian media, suggests just the opposite. That Russia will get even more political will from the situation and do whatever is necessary, even if that means increasing civilian and Russian casualties in the Donbass.

I think this will also provide Russia with a tilt in the tide of the "information war", once it is clear that Russia has destroyed the bulk of the Ukrainian army. Of course, the western MSM will proclaim "genocide" and all that based on the large number of Ukrainian casualties, but the concept of Russia being "defeated" in Ukraine will be destroyed. And if Russia proceeds to march all across Ukraine in a subsequent "blitzkrieg" against weakened Ukrainian forces, ending in Kiev's surrender, that will be it.

I suspect the Donbass operation will take from two weeks to a month, perhaps somewhat longer. Then we'll see what shakes out. If Biden wants to make a move he'll need to do it within that time frame - unless he waits to see whether Russian intends to take western Ukraine.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 15 2022 3:13 utc | 209

I posted this also on the not Ukraine open thread, karlof1, had to hunt back quite far as I could not remember when it was. We did get the link from Paco back at the "Sane Voices" thread,towards the end. Although I didn't post as much as you have, I did read the whole piece then, and made these comments on a couple of responses I found interesting. I don't really know whether others did also, but perhaps that would be why they aren't responding here, if they did already comment.(There might have been other responses after mine.) Another poster, Barofsky I think, had earlier posted that it was the day celebrating the first cosmonaut.

Paco @ 342, thank you SO much! This is so enjoyable after all the tangled issues of war!!! Here is just a small piece of the dialogue, Putin's answer to a question...I really don't exactly remember the question, sorry!

"...In this regard, I can say that I very much count on the growth of small and medium-sized businesses, on the initiative that comes from below, and on the emergence of new leaders in Russia. The economy will definitely adapt to the new situation. You can't charter one ship - you can charter another. You can’t send it to one country - you can send it to a third. You can’t buy here - you can buy in the fourth country. It's unavoidable. The world today is more complicated than it was during the Cold War, when there were two blocs and everything was covered by Kokom's lists. The world is more complex today, and in this complex world one country will not be able to maintain its complete dominance..."
And Lukaschenko's response, I think to the same question, I will post after this -- I haven't even finished the entire series of Q and A but only four polite(!) reporters are asking questions - oh, how refreshing it is!! They are having such a GOOD time!

Posted by: juliania | Apr 13 2022 2:23 utc | 368

Again to Paco's link, and this is part of a Lukashenko response (I got the spelling corrected this time):

"...What would be wrong if our entire world system and our planet rested on these four fulcrums: the United States of America, the European Union as the second fulcrum, Russia, China, possibly India. What, would it be less stable than relying on this destructive, self-destructive one pillar in the form of the United States of America? I think that says it all..."
Indeed it does, sir! Thank you! And thanks again Paco

Posted by: juliania | Apr 13 2022 2:29 utc | 369

Posted by: juliania | Apr 15 2022 3:13 utc | 210

Over 1,300 Kiev-regime troops have surrendered in the past few days, including over 1,000 yesterday. The criminal Kiev regime's forces in Mariupol have been effectively defeated. Only small pockets of Banderite terrorists remain deep inside a few industrial areas. Here is a video showing some of the POWs being carefully searched after surrendering:

https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/troops_surrender_mariupol_14:0

Posted by: Nate | Apr 15 2022 3:15 utc | 211

Hours of beating and humiliation (junge Welt, Susann Witt-Stahl, April 2, 2022 — in German)

At noon on March 3, five people broke into the apartment of 31-year-old hotel manager Aleksandr Matyushenko and his partner Mariya M. in Dnipro. The two were shouted at, had to lie down on the floor and weren’t allowed to move, the woman explained to jW. The attackers are said to not have identified themselves, but two of them could have been identified as members of the domestic secret service SBU by badges on their clothing. While the officers were searching the premises, another man in a military uniform with the emblem of the fascist Azov battalion beat Matyushenko in order to extract statements. “The same person spat in my face and cut my hair off with a knife,” Mariya M. continued. Matyushenko was beaten and maltreated for a total of two hours.

These accounts are backed up by footage allegedly posted by the thug involved in the robbery on the Telegram channel of the City of Dnipro, which has around 335,000 followers. In one photo, Matyushenko is seen with his face bleeding on the ground with a gun barrel pressed on the back of his head. A video shows how he is forced by kicks to shout the salute of the fascist Banderites, “Slava Ukraini — Heroyam slava!” again and again.

Matyushenko is an anti-fascist and a member of Livizja (Left), an association founded two years ago by activists from various social movements in Dnipro. The left-wing organization supports strikes and protests with rallies and publications against social cuts, low wages, the restriction of democracy and the synchronization of the media—through which Ukrainian oligarchs have created a “right-wing consensus” in society, which Matyushenko criticized in a newspaper article in 2020. “The right-wing government and the right-wing opposition compete with each other in anti-communism and xenophobia.”

In the past, Aleksandr was repeatedly subjected to attempts at intimidation by fascists, but also by the police, reported Mariya M. Now the repressive organs apparently want to be serious and silence him. After the man’s abuse, investigators drew up a report and confiscated computers, smartphones and other items. “Then they put bags over our heads, tied our hands with tape and took us to the SBU building in a car. There they continued to interrogate us and threatened to cut off our ears,” recalls Mariya M. She was released after spending a night in a holding cell. Matyushenko, however, was taken to a pre-trial detention center where a doctor eventually treated his injuries—numerous broken ribs, bruises, lacerations to his eyes and face.

So far, only his lawyer has been allowed to visit him. Matyushenko, who says he has never held a weapon, is being investigated under Section 437 of the Ukrainian Penal Code for “conducting an aggressive war or military operation,” a crime that carries a 10–15 year prison sentence. At a detention hearing on March 26, his provisional release on bail was denied. There are increasing reports from Dnipro of similar cases of arbitrary actions by the authorities: “The war is being used to kidnap, imprison and even kill opposition members who express criticism of the government,” a left-wing activist told jW. “We all must fear for our freedom and our lives.”

Posted by: S | Apr 15 2022 3:17 utc | 212

That big beautiful Russian flagship, the pride of Moscow, was parked in the Black Sea, and top Pentagon military strategists were busy plotting and scheming, thinking: What can we do 72 hours before Phase 2 kicks off in Donbass, where the Russians appear to have the edge, to crater their morale and knock their bravado off kilter, and send a message to Putin that we'll do exactly the same to Russia. Oh, I know! Sink the Moskva!

The U.S. has been in this fight hook, line and sinker on the sly from day one. I stated so last night and I don't care what anyone thinks, I'm repeating it here.

There's only one way to repair the damage from this gut punch.:

Blow up 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 18 Howitzers, 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 10 counter-artillery radars, 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 30,000 sets of body armor and helmets. That's USD800 million tax payers hard-earned cash in the toilet!

Who was it last night that wrote maybe Boris personally brought the missiles with him on the train to Kiev? Smart thinking.

If they were recoverable, maybe his autograph would be on them.

This was planned to a detail by the U.S. and UK. You think the Ukes came up with this on their own? Maybe Odessa is crawling with U.S. military operatives. I think Odessa is a hotbed of U.S. iniquity. I suspected this for some time, because it's close enough to the action to smuggle stuff to the Eastern fronts, and Americans think it's a safe haven, because they don't believe Russia can or will take it at any time. Is Russian intelligence anywhere on the ground in Odessa? Are Russians surveilling the port, railway stations, main arteries there? Russian intelligence must be stepped up to a higher level. If Russia were really at war with the U.S., every angle would be covered. Russian leadership is still behaving like they're fighting Ukrainians only. While the U.S. is using everything in the book to destroy Russia. This is existential.

Russians need to kick ass back hard and it has to hurt a lot. There is nothing more important right now than scoring a game changer against USNATO, to be sure, inside Ukraine. The U.S. may not have fighter jets in the sky or boots on the ground, but in every other way, the U.S. is at war with Russia and using every other weapon in its arsenal to defeat Russia. This must be top of mind for Putin.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 15 2022 3:25 utc | 213

re. "Moskva" - I know next to nothing about anything, especially armaments - but has there been any indication of where the blast was (near the waterline)? And whether the hull was blown outward or inward? I am wondering if it was either a small submersible or surface drone. Though I'd expect that neither would avoid radar/sonar detection. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and maybe it was an "accident", but what a fortuitous one for the alliance of the old Colonial/Imperial powers, if so.

Posted by: Sasha Smirnoff | Apr 15 2022 3:44 utc | 214

Here is the most sobering article I have read in a while.

The West Needs WWIII – Martin Armstrong

https://usawatchdog.com/the-west-needs-wwiii-martin-armstrong/


“What they are trying to do is deliberately poke the bear. . . . They are increasing the pressure on just about everything under the sun. The West needs World War III.

Hoard


This inflation is based upon shortages. These morons with covid . . . with lockdowns, ended up destroying the supply chains. . . .
Things that are there, I buy extra of because next time it might be gone. So, everybody is increasing their hoarding.

Really hoard


Armstrong recommends that people “stockpile two years of food.”

----

You already own potassium iodide. Right?!
Hoard some more.

Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2022 4:08 utc | 215

What we know from the mod report is there was a fire and multiple explosions in the amunition hold. The missile armament was not affected so that indicates the 130 mm gun at the bow. There are several hundred rounds and their propellent casings below deck under the gun turret. The explosion of these rounds would be devistating. We know the hull was breached but not so low as to sink the ship. It only took water and sank when it was towed and entered rough waters. There is no evidence of any external force that caused this... either missile or sabatage. There may never be so take every claim with caution.

Posted by: Nook | Apr 15 2022 4:18 utc | 216

Does the ordinary German citizen understand that their government is increasing their military power as they're threatening Russia while lusting over its [Russia's] energy? Are history books banned? Best two out of three?

Posted by: Seer | Apr 15 2022 4:21 utc | 217

@ Circe 210
Blow up 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 18 Howitzer . .
Apparently there is war material being openly shipped into Ukraine. . .note the photos
. . .from WaPo
Inside the transfer of foreign military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers
Long-distance convoys deliver armor-plated pickups, repainted SUVs, body armor and other vital gear at clandestine handoffs

ON THE POLAND-UKRAINE BORDER — There were no passport officers on the dirt road, no customs lane, no signs marking this isolated patch of farmland for what it has become: a clandestine gateway for military supplies entering Ukraine.
“No pictures, no pictures,” shouted a Polish border guard as a convoy of 17 trucks hissed to a halt on a biting morning this week.
Not far from here was a Ukrainian military base where at least 35 people had been killed a few days earlier by a Russian missile barrage, and no one wanted to call attention to this ad hoc border crossing. Washington Post journalists were given permission to observe the delivery on the condition that they turn off the geolocation function on their cameras. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 4:42 utc | 218

India is basically a secular country. thats in the constitution of India. all religions live freely here. a little friction now and then is to be expected. it happens in even close families. someone seems to be running a campaign against India due to its impartial and fair stance in the Ukraine mess

Posted by: Himy | Apr 15 2022 5:15 utc | 219

Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 4:42 utc | 215

Reading through the article you linked. This section ... "She held out her phone to show some of the texts she gets from soldiers in Ukraine. One named “Kruk” asked for 1,000 tourniquets and 40 individual first-aid kits."

Out of curiosity I thought I would look up the name on twitter as anyone organizing supplies will most likely be on social media. There was only one "Kruk"

https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk
Kateryna_Kruk
@Kateryna_Kruk
public policy expert, political scientist,#euromaidan activist. @AtlanticCouncil
Freedom Award recipient. Here privately.
.........

The propaganda world is a small world I guess.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 5:29 utc | 220

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 4:42 utc | 215

Yeah, it's crazy it made it through in the open. However, that shipment was sent early in March when the Russians were still around Kiev.

The shipment I'm writing about probably left today or is leaving tomorrow. It would be pretty absurd to send it through Poland since the U.S. want to get it to the Donbass area with some urgency.

▪︎▪︎▪︎▪︎▪︎▪︎

Southfront updated their story on the Moskva to include this:

UPDATE at 22:45 on April 14 Moscow time:

The Russian Defence Ministry reports that when the Moskva cruiser was being towed to its destination port, the ship lost its stability due to hull damage sustained during a fire caused by the detonation of ammunition.

The ship sank in stormy sea conditions.

SF: The Russian MoD’s reference to weather conditions raises many questions. The weather in that part of the Black Sea was not stormy, neither at the time of the incident, nor at the time the cruiser was allegedly in tow.

Just one more step closer to the truth. I get it. I get why the Russians are sticking to their version of what really happened.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 15 2022 5:31 utc | 221

Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 4:42 utc | 215

According to the article, the vehicles are unloaded ad distributed at the border. According to MoD briefings, Russia has been hitting a lot of distribution points closer to Donbas.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 5:43 utc | 222

@Posted by: Himy | Apr 15 2022 5:15 utc | 216

India was a secular nation until the Hindutva nationalists gained power, striving to make the Moslems second-class citizens. I support India's foreign policy stance, but that doesn't mean that I have to whitewash its internals realities. In addition, the brutal occupation and subjugation of Kashmir is ongoing.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 15 2022 5:44 utc | 223

@The Orakle #192–195

Good comments, thank you.

Posted by: S | Apr 15 2022 5:46 utc | 224

@Nate #208:

https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/troops_surrender_mariupol_14:0

Is it just me, or is there something wrong with Odysee video quality? The same RT video on Rumble is much sharper (especially if you turn on 720p): https://rumble.com/v10y3y3-over-1000-ukrainian-troops-have-surrendered-in-mariupol-russias-mod-confirm.html

Posted by: S | Apr 15 2022 5:52 utc | 225

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 4:42 utc | 215

Lol,that article is such a joke,Russia knows exactly where the so called clandestine access points along the boarders are.
Anything that can fit in a van or truck will be dealt with on the battle field.
Any bigger stuff will be simply destroyed once inside Ukraine weather it's transported by a US/Nato truck or not.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 15 2022 6:35 utc | 226

Any unoccupied rump Ukraine such as--and _especially_--Galicia will be considered by the US, NATO and the UN to be the real, "independent" Ukraine, holding its UN seat, very likely admitted to NATO, possibly a nuclear base, and most certainly a base for unending US/NATO "covert operations" against the East.

This simply _can't_ be allowed by Russia; it would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 14 2022 22:24 utc | 153

Concur with the analysis with the exception of "unending". Consequently, it simply could be allowed.

Posted by: Laur | Apr 15 2022 6:40 utc | 227

Any unoccupied rump Ukraine such as--and _especially_--Galicia will be considered by the US, NATO and the UN to be the real, "independent" Ukraine, holding its UN seat, very likely admitted to NATO, possibly a nuclear base, and most certainly a base for unending US/NATO "covert operations" against the East.

This simply _can't_ be allowed by Russia; it would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 14 2022 22:24 utc | 153

Concur with the analysis with the exception of "unending". Consequently, it simply could be allowed.

Posted by: Laur | Apr 15 2022 6:40 utc | 224

Oops. 🙄

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 15 2022 6:43 utc | 228

“Latest Commodity Prices Published
April 4, 2022 — Energy prices surged 24.1% in March, led by crude oil (+20.2%), coal (+49.9%), and natural gas, Europe (+55.7%), the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported. Non-energy prices gained 8.1%. Over the past twelve months, energy commodities have risen 101.6% and non-energy commodities 31.7%. Among key subgroups, agriculture commodities jumped 7.2%, fertilizers 20.7%, metals and minerals 7.7%, and precious metals 5.3%. Read More »
Image
REPORT
Commodity Markets Outlook
October 21, 2021 — Energy prices soared in the third quarter of 2021 and are expected to remain elevated in 2022, adding to global inflationary pressures and potentially shifting economic growth to energy-exporting countries from energy-importing ones. “

World Bank summary tells everything one needs to know. It shows why TIME is on Russian side. Loss of an old flagship is irrelevant.

Posted by: Milos | Apr 15 2022 7:39 utc | 229

According to India today, Russia's Defence Minister Suffers Heart Attack 'Not From Natural Causes' Amid Ukraine War. That is according to an Israeli source. Hopefully it's not true.

Posted by: Peter Schmidt | Apr 15 2022 7:43 utc | 230

Russian Military Vows More Strikes Against Targets in Kiev in Case of Attacks on Russian Territory https://sputniknews.com/20220415/russian-military-vows-more-strikes-against-targets-in-kiev-in-case-of-attacks-on-russian-territory-1094779759.html

The spokesman said that high-precision Kalibr cruise missiles hit a military facility on the outskirts of Kiev overnight. As a result of the attack on the Vizar Zhulyany machine-building plant, workshops for the production and repair of long-range and medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as anti-ship missiles, were destroyed.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 15 2022 7:46 utc | 231

Overwhelming Majority of Finns Consider Russia a 'Significant Military Threat' https://sputniknews.com/20220415/overwhelming-majority-of-finns-consider-russia-a-significant-military-threat-1094778299.html

Significant Majority of Finns Should Now Consider Russia an Overwhelming Military Threat ...

Medvedev: Russia Will Have More Registered Foes If Sweden, Finland Join NATO https://sputniknews.com/20220414/medvedev-russia-will-have-more-registered-foes-after-sweden-finland-join-nato-1094752567.html

"It makes no sense to argue that if it were not for the special operation in Ukraine, the question of these countries joining NATO would not have arisen at all and the situation would have been easier for Russia. This is not so. Firstly, attempts to drag them into the alliance have been made before. And secondly, most importantly, we do not have territorial disputes with these countries, which is why the price of such membership is different for us", Medvedev wrote.

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 15 2022 8:01 utc | 232

Russia retaliates for strikes in Russia by Ukraine.


"Moscow has said that its Kalibr cruise missiles struck a missile factory outside Kiev and promised more strikes on the Ukrainian capital should Ukraine continue its attacks on Russian territory.

Russia earlier accused Ukraine of shelling its Belgorod and Bryansk regions on Thursday, leaving seven residents injured, including a two-year-old boy and his pregnant mother."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 8:45 utc | 233

@ Roger | 220

Ask Muslims today in Pakistan or India in which of these two countries they would prefer to live. I bet 95% would say India: more freedom, less violence, better economy. For Christians, Sikhs or Hindus the answer will be 101% India. Bangladesh is doing OK economically, less so with its minorities but they are better of course than in Pakistan, Afghanistan or Sri Lanka - or China.

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 15 2022 8:49 utc | 234

@ Laurence | 229

If Putin is struggling to hold 1/3 of Ukraine, why would Finland or Sweden be scared? What happened to Nordic logic or rationality? Uncle Scam is more of a Tricky Dicky even than Vlad.

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 15 2022 8:53 utc | 235

@ Antonym | Apr 15 2022 8:53 utc | 232

And they say Russia is losing the information war. 😆

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 15 2022 9:03 utc | 236

@Anne B | Apr 14 2022 20:56 utc | 124

I don't think that Sweden's problem is cognitive dissonance, so much as plain hypocrisy. Sweden likes to be seen as progressive and tolerant but deep down it is neither.

Posted by: Steve | Apr 15 2022 9:05 utc | 237

Posted by: PavewayIV | Apr 14 2022 18:17 utc | 77

In regards to your point about gen. Cloutier, intel slava z reports the following, https://t.me/intelslava/25348:


Among the prisoners in Ukraine there are military personnel of NATO countries, said Klimov, deputy head of the United Russia commission.

"We already have prisoners among the military personnel of NATO countries, we will show all this when we conduct trials, and the whole world will see what really happened," he said.

Trials for the mil. advisors and mercs! This time Russia will not let them quietly leave.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 9:07 utc | 238

Gloves are off!

https://t.me/readovkanews/31012


Moscow has sent a diplomatic note to the United States demanding to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine

The note came in response to a sharp expansion (https://t.me/readovkaru/277 ) the range of weapons provided to Kiev — a copy of the document was reviewed by The Washington Post. According to the publication, Russia warns the White House against supplying the United States and NATO with "the most sensitive" weapons systems to Ukraine, as this adds fuel to the conflict and can "lead to unpredictable consequences."

The article says that Moscow, which called (https://t.me/readovkanews/30816 ) convoys arriving in the country with weapons for "legitimate military purposes", but have not yet attacked them, may be preparing for this.

"Many of us in the West had the assumption that we could supply Ukraine without restrictions and not incur a significant risk of retaliation from Russia. I think the Russians want to make it clear that this is not true," George Beebe, former director of Russia analysis at the CIA and Russia adviser to former Vice President Dick Cheney, told the publication.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 9:10 utc | 239

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 15 2022 8:49 utc | 231

India has the great advantage of not having its military so infiltrated by the US. I'm pretty sure it's Russia that invaded Ukraine, not Putin, and in any event I don't think they are struggling to hold 1/3 of the country. I don't know how much influence the US has bought in Sweden and Finland, any information on that would be welcome.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 15 2022 9:12 utc | 240

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 15 2022 8:53 utc | 232

If Putin is struggling to hold 1/3 of Ukraine, why would Finland or Sweden be scared? What happened to Nordic logic or rationality? Uncle Scam is more of a Tricky Dicky even than Vlad.

What IF your question is a non-sequitur?

IF you were to read what Russia's stated goals were/are you wouldn't find any mention of holding any of Ukraine. It's NOT an occupying action/force. Though this doesn't mean that it could change, BUT.. it has never been stated as an objective by the Russian government.

The Finns and Swedes will have to live with the thought of hypersonic missiles raining down on them. Yeah, sure, they can fire nukes at Russia and then? They should also ask themselves whether they wish to stake their entire future on the US actually backing them. Ukraine not being a NATO member is a convenient excuse for the US to stay out of what would be killing fields for them (and any other NATO troops)- this isn't conjecture, this has been gamed many times, always showing the US losing head-to-head with the Russian military. Ukraine holding up a NATO card wouldn't change anything. Same would be for Finland and Sweden.

Posted by: Seer | Apr 15 2022 9:17 utc | 241

[Forwarded from Intel Slava Z]
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸⚡️Among the prisoners in Ukraine there are military personnel of NATO countries, said Klimov, deputy head of the United Russia commission.

"We already have prisoners among the military personnel of NATO countries, we will show all this when we conduct trials, and the whole world will see what really happened," he said.

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 15 2022 9:19 utc | 242

@ Laurence | 233

Modi's India might lose the virtual info war in the West like Putin does, but the local population knows the ground reality and that counts most in the end.
I would suggest Anglo wokes to read this in one of their own favorite magazines:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/04/the-british-empire-was-much-worse-than-you-realize-caroline-elkinss-legacy-of-violence

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 15 2022 9:19 utc | 243

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 8:45 utc | 230

It doesn't look like the "command and control centers" have been hit last night. The point made below is that instead those are "regular" targets similar to what was before, https://t.me/rybar/31223 (Yandex translation + fixes by me):


You know, air defense work (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/42483) in the Belgorod region, together with the shelling of the Bryansk region, which led to tragic consequences, cause one simple question: "For how long?".

Dozens of messages are pouring into the feedback bot in the spirit of "And when will there be a strike on Bankova (main street in Kiev?)?", "Why does the AFU still have the opportunity to strike at Russia?", "And why has it not yet been announced about the verification of persons who have made love with the missile cruiser "Moscow"?".

And these are real people. Not Ukrainian bots, but normal, adequate, without bread, but with brains people.

After all, it turns out what a situation: the Ministry of Defense announces that they will destroy the enterprises of the military-industrial complex. Okay After 2 weeks, a report comes out (https://t.me/rybar/31160 ) from the Kiev Armored Plant, where Russian equipment is being repaired in order to use it not just in battle, but for provocations.

Question: Why does a stationary military facility still exist? This is not a shoe factory that has been artistically redone. This is a well-known object.

Or about hitting decision-making centers.

What did we see tonight? Ordinary strikes on ordinary objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And everything.

The blow to the decision-making center was in Mykolaiv, where the building of the regional administration was half-demolished (that was few weeks back). Or the building of the Kharkiv regional administration. Without any "last warnings". It's just that the command of the group made a decision and struck, because it was from there that the actions at the front were coordinated.

And as a result, it turns out that in preparation for the second stage of the operation, they only talk about "intensification and continuation of strikes."

So it seems that they are timid/protective. They still "take care". Who? Them? What for?

#Belgorod #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 9:21 utc | 244

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 15 2022 9:19 utc | 240

Modi's India might lose the virtual info war in the West like Putin does, but the local population knows the ground reality and that counts most in the end.

Yes! We in the West live in a sealed bubble called the 'international community', whilst 80% of the planet's population know what the fuck is going on, they live it every day, they don't need persuading!

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 15 2022 9:32 utc | 245

Peter Schmidt | Apr 15 2022 7:43 utc | 227

According an Israeli Russian oligarch Leonid Nevzlin. Shoigu may well have had a heart attack, all three are into that age group. If so there will be somebody to replace him.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 9:37 utc | 246

Posted by: Cabe | Apr 15 2022 2:35 utc | 203

You really should not try to link Falkands War with SMO in 2022 - it makes no sense. Argentina unwisely attacked British territory because it misread the scrapping of HMS Endeavour in Defence Cuts as a green light. It maltreated Royal Marines based on South Georgia.

Belgrano was inside a maritime exclusion zone and HMS Conqueror removed the threat.

As for the River Plate there was a British SSBN there with provisional plans to destroy Buenos Aires. There was also an SAS Sabre operating inside Punta Arenas in Chile monitoring all Argentinian Air Force activity.

If you support Argentina you must by definition support Kiev and Zelensky in Donbass

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 15 2022 9:56 utc | 247

Shoigu may well have had a heart attack,

Winston Churchill had one at the White House Dec 1941........I believe he had a further 3 which suggests he survived the first one.

It was not reported on BBC News nor in newspapers nor on Twitter.

Apparently as a consequence Britain surrendered just after losing HMS Hood in May 1941 when its magazine exploded and HMS Prince of Wales was damaged........

but HMS Prince of Wales was the first ship sunk by air power on 10. Dec 1941 when Japan destroyed it off Malaya

So all in all Churchill had a bad year in 1941 and a heart attack was probably anticipated having lost two capital flagships

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 15 2022 10:01 utc | 248

Retired Swiss Military-Intelligence Officer: 'Is it Possible to Actually Know What Has Been And is Going on in Ukraine?'
[...] Just recently I came across perhaps the clearest and most reasonable account of what has been going on in Ukraine. Its importance comes due to the fact that its author, Jacques Baud, a retired colonel in the Swiss intelligence service, was variously a highly placed, major participant in NATO training operations in Ukraine. Over the years, he also had extensive dealings with his Russian counterparts. His long essay first appeared (in French) at the respected Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement. A literal translation appeared at The Postil (April 1, 2022). I have gone back to the original French and edited the article down some and rendered it, I hope, in more idiomatic English. I do not think in editing it I have damaged Baud's fascinating account. For in a real sense, what he has done is "to let the cat out of the bag." — Boyd D. Cathay

Article: https://www.sott.net/article/466340-Retired-Swiss-Military-Intelligence-Officer-Is-it-Possible-to-Actually-Know-What-Has-Been-And-is-Going-on-in-Ukraine

A really good article.

Posted by: Sundial | Apr 15 2022 10:01 utc | 249

Posted by: Laurence | Apr 15 2022 7:46 utc | 231

Hmmm... in the UK Sputnik news is blocked

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 15 2022 10:03 utc | 250

The following has become clear to me regarding the war in Ukraine:

1. Ukraine's problem in 2014 was mass desertion and no will to fight, when Russia captured Crimea without resistance from the Ukrainian soldiers.

2. NATO massively trained and expanded the Ukrainian army after 2014, they especially helped with the morale problem. NATO helped integrate and promoted right-wing anti-Russian ideology in the security apparatus as a tool to help with that low morale. The right-wing ideology expanded to teaching children at school anti-Russian history and Ukrainian language to raise a new generation that would be cut off from the Russian part of Ukraine. That was the longterm goal of the US and the Bandera folks.

3. Russia saw what was happening and realized that the military build up and the anti-Russian education would become a huge challenge in the next 10+ years, so it decided to strike first, when it had the chance to succeeded with relatively low casulties and reverse the anti-Russian policies that the US pushed on Ukraine.

4. The Russian battle plan rested on the experience from Crimea back 2014 and the gamble that it would be enough, when the Russian army approached Ukrainian cities like Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov. They assumed that the Ukrainian army would disintegrate opening up to a negotiated solution.

5. Ukraine in turn had to make sure that no unit would flee or lay down arms voluntarily. I think the US convinced Ze that he simply had to hold the North, because accoding to US data, Russia never assembled enough troops to achieve a conquest of the major Northern cities by force. So Ze knew, he just had to hold the line with the help of the West. This was the major Russian fault to assume Ukraine would lay down arms, when Ukraine knew Russia had insuffient troops to actually achieve her goals by force.

6. Indeed, Ukraine succeded in the North, where the Russian army moved up to the cities and then waited for the disintegration to happen, but it didnt happen. Ukraine failed in the South, where the Ukrainian army quickly disintegrated and Russia could easily move up to Kherson, Melitopol and surrounded Mariupol.

7. Since Russia's gamble on disintegration failed in the North, the troops there were useless. Russia then changed for the current plan that doesnt rest on a political solution, but on a military one: Cutting Ukraine in half, East and South will be gone, which then makes rump Ukraine with half the population an insignificant threat. So Ze, by succeding in the North with US intel, will be forcing Ukraine into disintegration, if Russia is able to defeat the major part of the Ukrainian army sitting in Donbass. If this army is gone, Ukraine's ability to resist is gone as well.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Apr 15 2022 10:30 utc | 251

Posted by: Nook | Apr 15 2022 2:31 utc | 201

You need to remove the rose-tinted glasses and listen to what the Russians are saying - they freely admit this was an attack, https://t.me/readovkanews/31022, yandex translation:


[Forwarded from Explains Readovka]
The destruction of the cruiser "Moscow" is the largest in the history of information and psychological sabotage of NATO countries against Russia. It was impossible to sink the "Russian ship" without the coordination work of the intelligence services of Europe and the United States, and its main goal is not military at all

Russian Russian ship, go to ***" — this slogan has become almost the main thing in discrediting Russians around the world, and it was "Moscow" that participated in that famous episode on Snake Island, it was "Moscow" that was depicted on all stamps, posters and postcards that came out just a few days before the incident in The Black Sea. "Russian ship" — became a symbol of the Anti-Russia project. With the apparent absence of military successes, the West decided to pump Ukraine not only with weapons (https://t.me/readovkaru/229 ), but psychologically.

It is noteworthy that a week before the incident, the UK reported on the supply of anti-ship complexes to Ukraine "to protect Odessa", and the activity of NATO reconnaissance and anti-submarine aircraft over Romania increased dramatically. We focused on this unhealthy activity a month ago (https://t.me/readovkanews/27699 ).

The real perpetrators of this sabotage were NATO countries, and the main goal was exclusively informational and psychological (https://t.me/readovkaru/120 ).

Russia will win the war without the cruiser "Moscow", but whether Ukraine can continue to exist without such a psychological pumping is a big question.


Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 10:45 utc | 252

Posted by: Nook | Apr 15 2022 2:31 utc | 201

You need to remove the rose-tinted glasses and listen to what the Russians are saying - they freely admit this was an attack, https://t.me/readovkanews/31022, yandex translation:


[Forwarded from Explains Readovka]
The destruction of the cruiser "Moscow" is the largest in the history of information and psychological sabotage of NATO countries against Russia. It was impossible to sink the "Russian ship" without the coordination work of the intelligence services of Europe and the United States, and its main goal is not military at all

Russian Russian ship, go to ***" — this slogan has become almost the main thing in discrediting Russians around the world, and it was "Moscow" that participated in that famous episode on Snake Island, it was "Moscow" that was depicted on all stamps, posters and postcards that came out just a few days before the incident in The Black Sea. "Russian ship" — became a symbol of the Anti-Russia project. With the apparent absence of military successes, the West decided to pump Ukraine not only with weapons (https://t.me/readovkaru/229 ), but psychologically.

It is noteworthy that a week before the incident, the UK reported on the supply of anti-ship complexes to Ukraine "to protect Odessa", and the activity of NATO reconnaissance and anti-submarine aircraft over Romania increased dramatically. We focused on this unhealthy activity a month ago (https://t.me/readovkanews/27699 ).

The real perpetrators of this sabotage were NATO countries, and the main goal was exclusively informational and psychological (https://t.me/readovkaru/120 ).

Russia will win the war without the cruiser "Moscow", but whether Ukraine can continue to exist without such a psychological pumping is a big question.


Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 10:45 utc | 253

----I don't think that Sweden's problem is cognitive dissonance, so much as plain hypocrisy. Sweden likes to be seen as progressive and tolerant but deep down it is neither.

Posted by: Steve | Apr 15 2022 9:05 utc | 237


Extended hypocrisy make up a powerful dissonance, IMHO. It's getting louder.

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 15 2022 10:46 utc | 254

Trials for the mil. advisors and mercs! This time Russia will not let them quietly leave.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 9:07 utc | 238

Let's hope so, and that it won't be done under full western black-out. I want it showed in my family, friends and neighbors face!

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 15 2022 10:48 utc | 255

The saga with Medvedchuk continues with him aparently being transferred to US, https://t.me/readovkanews/31027, yandex translated/corrected:


A group of FBI employees flew from Washington to Ukraine to take Viktor Medvedchuk to the United States, ex-deputy of the Rada Kiva said.
According to him, the main Ukrainian opposition politician "will be used in possible trades with Russia." In addition, he can act as a witness in the investigation of Moscow's alleged interference in the election process in the United States, Kiva believes.
"Everything is in the best traditions of the Anglo—Saxons, who have been using terrorist methods all over the world for a long time," the politician stressed in his Telegram channel.
Earlier , Kiva commented (https://t.me/readovkanews/30785 ) a statement by the President of Ukraine, in which he offered the Russian side to exchange Medvedchuk for captured soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, calling Zelensky a "terrorist trafficking in people." In turn, Viktor Medvedchuk's wife Oksana Marchenko said (https://t.me/readovkanews/31025 ) to journalists that she does not know exactly when her husband was detained. She clarified that "she hasn't had any contact with him in the last few weeks."

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 11:10 utc | 256

Belgrano was inside a maritime exclusion zone and HMS Conqueror removed the threat.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 15 2022 9:56 utc | 247

The Belgrano was actually outside the exclusion zone, as I remember, and was sailing away. Thatcher wanted a military solution to the war, and that got what she wanted.

Posted by: laguerre | Apr 15 2022 11:11 utc | 257

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 15 2022 10:01 utc | 248

Talking about Churchill, let's remember his genious stroke of hitting Berlin with a lone bomber strike which derailed the successful air campaign against the RAF airfields in southern England. The luftwaffe then was divested towards some useless blitz on London that saved the RAF.

Let not the Russian be likewise divested toward bombing downtown Kiev instead of eradicating Ukraine forces.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Apr 15 2022 11:17 utc | 258

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Apr 15 2022 10:30 utc | 251
"4. The Russian battle plan rested on the experience from Crimea back 2014 and the gamble that it would be enough, when the Russian army approached Ukrainian cities like Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov. They assumed that the Ukrainian army would disintegrate opening up to a negotiated solution."

Speculation. No one has confirmed this. I've even seen Scott Ritter mention it, without evidence. AFAIK absolutely no one on the Russia side has said this. And I think it's fairly clear that the Russian did not "gamble". They did take a small amount of risk with the paratrooper move to Kiev but it was not a huge risk.

"When Ukraine knew Russia had insuffient troops to actually achieve her goals by force."

There is no evidence of this whatsoever. Pure speculation. The fact that Russia did not commit all its forces, let alone the rest of its army which remains in Russia, is no indication of having "insufficient forces" for the plan Russia was actually executing - which neither you or I or anyone else outside of the MoD actually know.

"6. Indeed, Ukraine succeded in the North"

There was no such success. Russia may have hoped for a Kiev disintegration, but it was not necessary for the operation as a feint to be successful - which it was. Allegedly some 70,000 Ukrainian troops are still stuck in the Kiev region afraid of some thousands of Russians across the Belarus border.

"Russia then changed for the current plan that doesnt rest on a political solution, but on a military one"

Pure speculation. In my view, Russia never expected a political solution. I assume they would have been happy if they got an immediate surrender, but they know full well that the US is running the war, not Zelenskyy. Russia always negotiates while conducting military operations. These "negotiations" were merely an presentation of surrender terms, and an attempt to get at least the Ukrainians to agree to stop fighting. But they never expected that to happen. No one could.

"Cutting Ukraine in half, East and South will be gone, which then makes rump Ukraine with half the population an insignificant threat."

Same theory everyone else has. I think differently, but these days I don't speculate on Russia's final objective. So you and others may be right. Personally I think that will be a massive Russian mistake and I suspect a lot of Russians will think so, too.

"If this army is gone, Ukraine's ability to resist is gone as well."

This is mostly correct. However, with 70,000 Ukrainian troops (at least) remaining, there can still be resistance. Ineffective resistance, true, and unable to stand against the combined Russian/LDR/Chechen military with full armor and artillery after the Donbass reduction, but still resistance.

It's at that point that Biden is going to have to decide whether to intervene or not. Or he can decide while the Donbass operation is ongoing, which gives him at least another 2-4 weeks to realize that nothing he sends to Ukraine is going to alter the outcome of the war. So if he wants to intervene, the next month is his best option. Because once Russia gets rolling - whether just up to the Dnieper as everyone thinks or to the Polish border as I think, Biden's options will vanish.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 15 2022 11:29 utc | 259

The Belgrano was actually outside the exclusion zone, as I remember, and was sailing away. Thatcher wanted a military solution to the war, and that got what she wanted.

Posted by: laguerre | Apr 15 2022 11:11 utc | 256

Not worth arguing the toss really. It was a target and it was hit. There was only a military solution available with the Argentinian Junta which occupied territory that had never belonged to Argentina......ever.

You clearly had abject Surender as an option.

Battleships are a threat to any task force and are best sunk.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 15 2022 11:38 utc | 260

Boo | Apr 15 2022 10:45 utc | 252 "You need to remove the rose-tinted glasses and listen to what the Russians are saying - they freely admit this was an attack"

It's an opinion piece at a news site. They make some good points but best to wait on the Russian MoD. With the ship sunk it will be more difficult to determine the original cause of the fire, but at the moment everything is nothing more than opinion.

from another of your comments and strikes on control points. the main command and control was destroyed in the first days though I believe NATO has direct control to many units. There will always be control points though (logistics and whatever else) and these will be continuously hit as they appear.
The manufacturing facilities hit and destroyed earlier were for the likes of tochka missiles and also facilities for manufacture ad repair of taks other armored vehicles and weapons. The factory hit at Kiev was for manufacture and maintenance of SAM missiles and the coastal defence missiles.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 11:38 utc | 261

I am sadly convinced that the outcome of this war is also existential for the United States at this point.
No matter how hard I look, I don't see an acceptable outcome for both sides that would allow a de-escalation.
Please show me I'm wrong.

Posted by: Marjorie | Apr 15 2022 11:54 utc | 262

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 11:38 utc | 259

In regards to the sinking of Moskva, the opinions on this topic that I post are of ex-mil. russian telegram or mil. corespondents channels, not someone like Boris Rozhin (who cross-posts the same channels quite often as well). They know one way or another what's happening, it's hard to hide it.

About the presumed "command and control" centers that were supposedly bombed in the post I was responding to, MoD specifically said "decision-control centers" which will/should include some of those in civilian control - the ministry of defense, police, presidency (Bankovska str. in the post?), local administrations, etc. This is not what happened last night so it's premature to claim that the Russians are responding to the provocations in Belgorod oblast and elsewhere in Russia. That's the gist of rybar's post as well. I appears a lot of Russians are noticing the disconnect between the words and deeds of MoD. May be they will start hitting the "decision control centers"in the next few nights. We'll see.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 11:54 utc | 263

I am the individual posting here under the name Richard Steven Hack. The site filter is now eating all my posts. b rescued the last one I did above. So the filter has effectively "banned" me and b can't control this, apparently.

So from here on out I will be posting under the user name "Charles Luther Thanos".

Let's test that now.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 11:56 utc | 264

OK, that worked as long as I leave off my Substack URL. So that's who I'll be from now on. "CharlesLutherThanos". I had to choose an odd name because literally every other name I could come up with is already in use at Protonmail. :-)

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 11:57 utc | 265

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 11:54 utc | 261

You know what I thought of when the Russians said they might hit "decision centers"? Well, who is actually making the decisions for Ukraine? It ain't Zelenskyy.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 11:59 utc | 266

Arne Hartmann | Apr 15 2022 10:30 utc | 251

I don't think it was fault as such or a gamble. It seems to be the way Russia operates. Go in softly first - give the other side to a chance to rethink and choose the least damaging option.
like it or not, that is the way Russia operates.

The other thing is that move on Kiev. That was lifted only when Mariupol was well ad truly locked in, the majority of armored vehicles and much military structure destroyed. According to Ritter, Kiev had to keep a large grouping of troops there - he believes a grouping of about hundred thousand troops there so there was no chance Russia ever intended to take Kiev with that small force. He said he was involved in the planning for the first Iraq war ad they did exactly the same there. sent small diversionary forces to tie up larger groupings while the main force could attack grouping that could not be reinforced. Well worth watching him explain the planning for the first Iraq war.

In the last eight years, Ukraine has apart from turkey been turned into the main fighting force of NATO. A war like that, you're going to take losses, especially in the diversionary operations.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 12:00 utc | 267

Lot of Monday morning generals. Maybe Putin should crowdsource military command to all the westerners regardless of whether they speak Russian of not? I’ll bet he’d win in a minute that way. My advice to all is find a copy of the Iraq war GRU files; it will at least help you realize that the news we consume about war bares very little resemblance to what is actually happening.

It’s also a little sick that so many treat this as some sort of game that has no larger context. There’s so much “Russia has to bomb everything to rubble and win quickly” without any consideration of second order effects from that. That “strategy” (which derives solely from thinking the US way of war is the best way) is simply the worst thing Russia can do. It implicitly buys into the western propaganda that this is a war by Russia against Ukraine, like a foreign invasion. It’s a civil war. Blow shit up and move fast means indiscriminately killing thr family and friends of a majority of Russians. Want to undermine the morale of Russian troops who have cousins and grandmas and such in Ukraine? Have them realize that they’re not participating in a noble cause against a small section of ideological Ukrainians but killing their own family for reasons that they won’t and can’t understand. But it will turn into “for Putin’s lust for power” no matter what else is said.

How many US vets have been disillusioned by realizing that they weren’t fighting *for* anything at all. And that means they’ll die for nothing. Think about why so many Ukrainians are surrendering and what they’re saying about their leadership.

Nobody in the Russian general staff assumed that Kiev would surrender to a small force on its outskirts. There was an outside chance that they would, but if you think Russia was counting on that, then frankly, you’re a fool. It was clearly a pinning maneuver with the threat (remember that most of the force was still in reserve nearby) that russia could March in Kiev in force at any time. Even the Ukrainian general staff has said as much.

It also speaks to Putin negotiating throughout. Then, Ukraine could have existed with neutrality and federal autonomy of Donetsk and Lugansk. Every “offer” from Putin gets worse, not better and the Kiev move was an indicator for Ukraine of what future offers may look like. Of course russia has had setbacks, mistakes, and failures. It’s an actual war, not a war movie. Again read the GRU files if you’ve accepted the US movie version of Iraq in 2003. Not to mention that russia moving fast would necessitate leaving large Ukrainian military groupings behind to capture symbolic objectives like Kiev. That’s how you get an intractable insurgency after you declare “victory”. Just ask the most powerful military the world has ever known, according to itself even though it hasn’t won a war since 1945z

Posted by: Lex | Apr 15 2022 12:03 utc | 268

Posted by: Lex | Apr 15 2022 12:03 utc | 266

Agreed. Russia in my view has not made any significant mistakes. And hopefully they won't fall for the "partition Ukraine at the Dnieper" idea that everyone has, which in my view would be a massive mistake.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 12:06 utc | 269

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 15 2022 11:59 utc | 264

Good point! For that to happen the Russians will need few more rotations of the pain dial. Hope theirs goes to 11.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 12:08 utc | 270

Boo | Apr 15 2022 11:54 utc | 261

yeah, I would like see the civilian 'decision and control centers' in Kiev hit too. I think in the mod briefing there was something about that decision having to be made at higher levels so I take it that is a political decision.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 12:10 utc | 271

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 12:10 utc | 269

And just as we post:

https://t.me/intelslava/25375

It's very loud in Kyiv now. There are massive strikes on military targets.

Could be white swans:

https://t.me/rybar/31238

with video!

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 12:19 utc | 272

Boo | Apr 15 2022 12:19 utc | 270

thanks. will be interesting reading the next mod briefing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 12:24 utc | 273

@Boo | Apr 15 2022 12:19 utc | 270

https://t.me/rybar/31238

That looks like a rehearsal for the annual victory parade, May 9.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2022 12:39 utc | 274

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2022 12:39 utc | 272

Yep, rubar is making the same point, I added could be to my post.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 12:45 utc | 275

There goes Macron re-election?

https://t.me/sputniknewsus/12004
Russian Investigative Committee says French Legion soldiers among Ukrainian troops, probing it as part of criminal case on mercenaries in Ukraine

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2022 12:52 utc | 276

Gretalenskyy is pushing for a full embargo of Russian fossil fuels, and fast track to a Zero Carbon bug-eating Europe. https://t.me/NewResistance/7353

The Ukraine war against Russia and the climate hoax are two sides of the same coin, a scheme to impoverish Europe.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2022 13:15 utc | 277

@270
video is parade prep

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 13:34 utc | 278

@Boo
I'm getting the feeling you don't read in detail half the stuff you're passing on

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 13:37 utc | 279

WTH, Vizar plant has been destroyed just last night? According to Agence FP.

https://t.me/intelslava/25384, also B. Rozhin reports it

Night strikes in Kiev were carried out at the Vizar plant, confirms AFP.

A Ukrainian military plant near Kiev that produced missiles allegedly used to destroy the Russian warship Moskva was partially destroyed by overnight Russian strikes, the French agency said.

Also, daily mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10721423/Russian-air-strike-hits-Ukrainian-missile-factory-Kyiv.html

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 13:37 utc | 280

Sun Tzu: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 13:41 utc | 281

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 13:37 utc | 277

I should have clarified better. The video that I linked from rybar with the planes already said that its most likely the prep for the 9th of May parade. I quickly typed could be in regards to what rybar was saying. I'm completely aware of the fact because I can read Russian. Please dont be so condescending, dont need your insults.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 13:41 utc | 282

"...even if Russians look European, they are not European."

https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1514949499017441286?cxt=HHwWjMC52d6il4YqAAAA

Its pretty shocking for me that the ZDF, German state media, let a guest speak about Russians as if we are back under Nazi rule. The venere of civilization is still pretty thin in Germany. What she means is that Russia actually is the Asian Horde, a cultural and generational theme stemming from centuries ago to invoke fear among Europeans of the East. Its a racist concept to attribute traits to human beings based on nationality, skin color, religion etc.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Apr 15 2022 13:44 utc | 283

Two Links I find most interesting:

1)
German TV, 12.04.2022, prime time, ZDF, Markus Lanz talk. Florence Gaub, german, studied in Munich at my university, the LMU, deputy director since 2018 at Institut for Security Studies of the European Union in Paris, says the following:

"We must not forget, that Russians may look like Europeans, but they are not. They have another attitude toward death and violence, in a cultural sense."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cd-vBsdSPQ

There is no shitstorm. Heaven.

2)
Not really new, but the John Helmer interview with two nameless(!) military experts from Russia and Canada is extremely important to understand the situation in Ukraine. The two main points are:
– Russia hat to counter a plant attack against its own territory and Crimea, not only the Donbass. NATO aimed to encircle the Donbass. The threat to Kiev was the answer.
– The USA was convinced, Russia would collapse under its total warfare beyond Ukraine. This did not happen, and now the US has a war they did not expect.
In german:
https://krass-und-konkret.de/politik-wirtschaft/der-krieg-in-der-ukraine-aus-strategischer-sicht/
In english:
http://johnhelmer.net/how-to-read-the-war-in-reverse-without-outsmarting-yourself/

Posted by: njet | Apr 15 2022 13:46 utc | 284

All day long the UK media has taken great delight in the sinking of the Russian warship the Moskva, we've been repeatedly told that it was a formidable flagship of the Russian fleet and that the brave and bold Ukrainian forces took it out and that Putin is in shock at the loss of it. We were then subjected to the false propaganda that the again brave and bold Ukrainian forces had previously taken out another Russian navy ship at Snake island.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 13:47 utc | 285

Russian Army has started using "Murmansk-BN"‼️
2nd phase is definitely starting,more sophisticated weapons being used.
The most powerful electronic warfare complex "Murmansk-BN" suppresses the communication of the Ukrainian Army
The complex is designed to jam short-wave radio communication lines at a range of up to 5 thousand kilometers, which blinds enemy command posts. Murmansk can also conduct radio reconnaissance and intercept enemy signals.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1514923070879846400

Reinforcements is coming from Tyumen‼️
Dozens units of MLRS Grad are traveling by rail from the heart of Russia towards the front.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1514928170327326724

Posted by: Sundial | Apr 15 2022 13:47 utc | 286

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 13:37 utc | 277

For your info, this is what the link to the telegram post https://t.me/rybar/31238 I provided above contains, that's I added could be. I should have known that without further clarification it would be taken as endorsing the use of Tu bombers now over Kiev. And, btw, that link from intel slava Z in the same post turned out to be some random noise, so from now on will not post any from that channel.

[ Video ]
🇷🇺🇺🇦 The sky over Tula.

We would like to rejoice and say that strikes against decision-making centers are being prepared.

But as if there are still rehearsals of the Victory Parade now by May 9. Therefore, we should not be too happy.

Although I want to believe, yes.
#Russia #Tula #Ukraine
@rybar

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 13:50 utc | 287

Nato warships are carrying out exercises in the Baltic sea and docking at Tallin in Estonia, the groups SNMG1 consists of flagships from the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom, while the SNMCMG1 is composed of Norwegian, Belgian, German, Estonian, British and Dutch mine layers and minesweepers.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 13:53 utc | 288

It looks like the US via Nato will be placing more nukes in Europe.


"NATO allies currently operating the F-35, such as Poland, Denmark, and Norway, might be asked to support nuclear sharing missions in the future, adding that NATO “will also have some operational advantages with the F-35 since there will be opportunities for enhanced networking and integration across the force.”

In addition to Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey are currently hosting an estimated 150 US nuclear weapons – mainly B-61 gravity bombs."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 14:02 utc | 289

This is rich coming from a country that's backing Nazi's in Ukraine and from a county that aided and abetted the Nazi's of WWII.


"Slovakia’s Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad has likened Vladimir Putin to Nazi Germany's leader Adolf Hitler over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

The Russian president “is equal to Hitler,” Nad claimed in an interview published by the New York Times on Thursday."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 14:09 utc | 290

@285 Boo

Nothing wrong with either channel you cite, looks like meaning was distorted by translation

"We would like to rejoice that ..." in is better translated as
"We wish we could rejoice that ..."

Intel Slava Z is a perfectly good English language rendition of the same from Rozhin/Cassad and equivalents. Same caveats applying to both, ie they race to conclusions etc.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 14:11 utc | 291

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 14:11 utc | 289

I read Russian fluently, 90-95% comonnality with my language. Yandex translation is good, but as you point out not perfect, the most annoying thing is that I have to fix lots of wrong pronouns that make meaning hard to decipher. The intel slava z about two hours ago reported "massive strikes in Kiev" which is not consistent with the MO of the Russians until now; the post is still there and no other channel is reporting the same, hence time to bin it for me.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 14:23 utc | 292

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Apr 15 2022 11:17 utc | 257

Let not the Russian be likewise divested toward bombing downtown Kiev instead of eradicating Ukraine forces.
I have said multiple times – regarding both Ukraine and Syria – that the West always tries to provoke Russia into ending what it is doing successfully and instead start doing something else less successful.
Talking about Churchill, let's remember his genious stroke of hitting Berlin with a lone bomber strike which derailed the successful air campaign against the RAF airfields in southern England. The luftwaffe then was divested towards some useless blitz on London that saved the RAF.
This is exactly the historical precedent I had in mind.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 15 2022 14:32 utc | 293

@Boo | Apr 15 2022 11:10 utc | 255

This leak is plausible, only because *elensk* is the latest in a series of wholy owned cut-outs in NATO's offensive to capture UA, Mevedchuk as a store of value for US near-term strategy is fast approaching an expiration date (death by Azov), and selective "exfilitration" of profile agents is consistent with NoVa's "resettlement" ops since WWII. Reliable HUMINT of both UA and RU organizational strengths and weaknesses should be unique, possibly time-sensitive contribution to near-term (< 12 mo) US military logistic analysis. Accordingly, I disagree with Kiva as to Medvedchuk's extrinsic (trade) value. Medvedchuck is redundant. To RU his instrumentality (informant, collaborator) converted to a strategic "write off" the day UA detained him back in February; to UA he is one prop among many signifying the nationalists' supremacy; and no one inside or outside US.gov needs him to confirm or deny--six years late--Mueller's work "Russian interference" product, produced by the DNC. Durham's investigation can't even find a space between the lines of US congressional vendetta against Jan6 insurgents. I would like to believe that Medvedchuk, purportedly presented as a close personal friend of PUTIN and agent of The Great Patriotic War at the polls, understood all along that he's not indispensible in either case.

His "Hollywood ending" is a consulting gig with NSA and Special Visas for his wife and children < checks watch > 24 months.

Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 15 2022 14:33 utc | 294

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-used-long-range-bombers-mariupol-1st-time-war-2022-04-15/

April 15 (Reuters) - Ukraine's defence ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said on Friday that for, the first time since the start of its invasion, Russia used long-range bombers to attack the besieged port city of Mariupol.

Motuzyanyk said Russia was concentrating its efforts on seizing the cities of Rubizhne, Popasna and Mariupol.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 14:38 utc | 295

There goes Macron re-election?
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2022 12:52 utc | 274
PJ Watson's perspective on that here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciGNGZ1u5_E

Posted by: Stevelancs | Apr 15 2022 14:50 utc | 296

The Reuters piece I quoted on Russia using strategic bombers on Mariupol? I thought it a bit strange at first but thinking about it a bit more there is a good chance some very large bunker busters have just paid Azov a visit.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 14:52 utc | 297

from Stripes
Russia warns US to stop arming Ukraine

WASHINGTON — Russia this week sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict there and could bring “unpredictable consequences.”
The diplomatic démarche, a copy of which was reviewed by The Washington Post, came as President Joe Biden approved a dramatic expansion in the scope of weapons being provided to Ukraine, an $800 million package including 155 mm Howitzers — a serious upgrade in long-range artillery to match Russian systems — coastal defense drones and armored vehicles, as well as additional portable anti-air and antitank weapons and millions of rounds of ammunition. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 14:54 utc | 298

Let's assume for the sake of argument we were already in a multi-polar world; if Russia attacked the U.S. by proxy, and were trying to cripple it economically as the U.S. is doing with Russia today, half of Russia would already be obliterated. That's how much patience and discipline Putin is exercising, and that's how much control over the world the U.S. has today.

I don't care who says what trying to second-guess this Russian operation. The U.S. cannot continue as the hegemon bully of the world. Of course the Russians underestimated the Ukies' will to fight. That is yesterday's news. This operation should be stepped up to a level that recognizes that the U.S. is embedded with an enemy, yes, a recalcitrant enemy that shows no mercy. This is not your Ukraine of 2014. The U.S. has turned Ukraine's roots into daggers, poisoned the Ukrainian psyche and is weaponizing Ukraine into the Israel of Eurasia.

This is existential; Russians know this or they should by now, and should hit the web and the airwaves like a cyber army committed to a multi-polar future where Russia's existence and prominence cannot be so easily threatened and erased. They must be ready to stomach scorched earth in Ukraine if that's what it takes to reverse the damage the U.S. has already created there. After Donbass; Odessa, shutting off the Black Sea. It's the only way to stop the U.S. from its Frankenstein ambition: a second fascist Israel. Forget about Kiev. It's lost, but with Odessa, who cares.

Once Russia has the East secured, it can carry out timely surgical strikes whenever Kiev tries to amass military strength, just like Israel does with Syria and Lebanon.

There is no other way to get out of this on top! Russians must be mentally prepared to fight for Russia's dignity and existence. This message must be as prominently delivered as Z is on billboards on Russia's street corners. Russians must embrace a warrior mentality and be prepared to sacrifice a lot to get this war done and secure a future where Russia is not just a token power on the UNSC, but an arm of international law checking hegemonic interests that threaten multipolarity.

Russians must be all in to fight like hell, or become subjects in a vassal state submissive to the interests of the Empire.

China beware. AUKUS will metamorphasize to include Japan and SK and get a footing in Taiwan and a weakened Russia will seal this expansion. Any dissent inside China and Hong Kong will be exploited to the max. China's road will be mined with U.S. obstruction. The hegemon will never give up on taking China down. Full containment is in China's future if Russia falls.

No half-assed whacks at the Empire will suffice. Only committed resistance will succeed. The Empire succeeds only with Divide and Conquer strategy.

If Russians stand firm and united against the West's war by proxy on Russia, and China's covert foreign assistance will make success more certain, then Russia will prevail with a spectacular victory.

The ship is a symbol, but you can't break Russian spirit with a missile. Russia be all your history in this one battle; be formidable in your resistance!

Posted by: Circe | Apr 15 2022 15:05 utc | 299

Peace, longer term.

In the short term?

An explosive event getting passed off as a "nuke" that seemingly forces Ukraine to surrender seems like it might be something NATO might be willing to consider as an alternative of having to acknowledge responsibility in "losing Ukraine" after having set them up as live bait against the Russians in the Paperclip Nazi continuation campaign of WW2's Barbarossa via NATO and their satellites states.

But, let's suppose that's allowed to actually take place - the prospect of a Russian "first strike" against a neighboring country that was once a founding member state in the Soviet Union and an ancestral component of the old Russian Empire. Would Beijing then be tempted to hit Taiwan or North Vietnam if Russia were to "first strike" Ukraine? "Out of desperation" ? Not likely. They don't need to hit Taipei anymore than Russia's most hawkish elements aspire to hit Kiev.. And after a whole month now, the Russians STILL supposedly can't take Kiev? Perhaps that's a good indicator Russian annexation of Kiev isn't a part of their strategy.. At least in the short term.

Russia hitting a country that 'officially' doesn't have nukes with nukes.. a country they don't need to nuke in an actual invasion scenario..would that not be more outrageous than the standard America set at the end of WW2? What might Israel fix to do to do about Iran or Syria if Russia orders the hot one against Kiev..? How about Beijing vs Vietnam, Taiwan?

A lot to consider. The end result in the current Ukraine conflict will probably end up a partition of some kind - Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, and other similar provinces in the East and the South will probably be independent or join Russia at some point. Russia may want a "buffer" between themselves and Ukraine. Thus, annexation by Moscow is no automatic guarantee. Suppose there's a small chance Kiev tries retaking Crimea. But they've been promising that since 2014, so far, to no avail.

The Western parts of Ukraine, as others have noted, will probably exist as a country more like the 1918-22 "Republic of West Ukraine" that once existed simultaneously alongside a "Donetsk Republic" .. There is historical precedent. Will Kiev ever be able to reconquer Donbass & Crimea, or expand their borders all the way to the Caspian Sea in their "Greater Ukraine" they tried establishing as a Nazi puppet state during WW2? They likely won't get that far. The infinitely more likely scenario, a partitioned Ukraine between East and West along the lines of what ended up happening to the former Yugoslavia in regard to border changes. It will hopefully be done in a way that doesn't see Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Russia, Belarus, Poland and Turkey reclaim "lost lands" from Ukraine..

Ukraine wasn't just a Soviet puppet state once upon a time, they were also famous for being one of the last stands of the Whites against the Reds during the Russian Civil War! The Eastern areas and Crimea especially.

Posted by: Mikhail-Raygun 19772 | Apr 15 2022 15:11 utc | 300

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