Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 14, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-46

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

Posted by b on April 14, 2022 at 14:39 UTC | Permalink

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UK announced freezing $7b of Abramovich's assets today according to ZH. Check the "rebillionize" video at the bottom of the article for a chuckle.

Posted by: the pessimist | Apr 14 2022 19:41 utc | 101

Just a question - they freeze all that oligarch stuff - and at the same time they say they all are like capos - who should ever touch those things in future? People who are basically suicidal?

Posted by: Macpott | Apr 14 2022 19:44 utc | 102

Some sobering thoughts from Texas Bentley, a legit, on the scene, source who's been fighting in the Donbas for years. Worth a listen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIfXL5Nagy4&t=5s

Posted by: Rodrigo | Apr 14 2022 19:50 utc | 103

I would like to poit out one of very important information, fact, which most of commenators don't understand here.
Links!
We, which are living in Europe, have no possibility to open any of your links, based on RT, or Telegram.
You knew that? No? Hahahahaha....
So, enjoy in your smmall world...
I just have to say, world is bigger that you think...

Posted by: preseren3 | Apr 14 2022 19:51 utc | 104

Some reading material friends,

"Nazi authorities mobilized Ukrainians into auxiliary police units, some of which cleared ghettos. Few such auxiliary police belonged to Bandera’s group, which operated independently. But Banderist guerrillas in western Ukraine of-ten killed Jews. Historian Yehuda Bauer writes that Banderists “killed all the Jews they could find,” surely “many thousands” in all.13 Moshe Maltz, a Jew living in hiding in Sokal, heard from a friendly Polish contact “about 40 Jews who were hiding out in the woods near his home ... the Bandera gangs came and mur-dered them all.”14 When the Soviets reconquered East Galicia in November 1944, there were few Jews there left alive. But Maltz recorded that, “When the Bandera gangs seize a Jew, they consider it a prize catch. The ordinary Ukrainians feel the same way.... they all want to participate in the heroic act of killing a Jew. They literally slash Jews to pieces with their machetes....”15"


https://www.archives.gov/files/iwg/reports/hitlers-shadow.pdf

Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 14 2022 19:51 utc | 105

Intel Slava Z on Telegram posting new stuff about Brit in Ukie Army who was captured. He wanted to quit and flee shortly after the start of the "war". He said he did not want to fight but would guard. The young man is throwing Zelensky and the Ukie regime of criminals under the bus. I bet the British newspapers will not print this or will say it is under duress. The young man is essentially saying the Ukraine is a corrupt sh*i*t show and he did not want to fight for Zelensky. He is sounding more like me than a Ukie true believer. Maybe he does have common sense too.

Posted by: Jerry1 | Apr 14 2022 19:56 utc | 106

In response to donten@89,

MODRF has officially confirmed that Moscow has sunk.

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 14 2022 20:00 utc | 107

what a sad day from rt.com "Russian flagship sank – military
Missile cruiser ‘Moskva’ went down in the Black Sea while being towed to port, the Russian Defense Ministry said
"

Posted by: Calgary guy | Apr 14 2022 20:03 utc | 108

Posted by: ka | Apr 14 2022 19:05 utc | 93

I still don't buy "Moscow" hit by Ukraine.

1.Black sea blockade of 5 Russian War Ships,(asleep at the wheel) Really?

2.Why would the Russians sail or even Tow "Moscow" back to Sevestapol,putting it or 2 Vessels in danger of more Missiles?

Doesn't make sense,unless Russians perseve no danger in Black sea.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 14 2022 20:03 utc | 109

Is anyone else rather surprised about the lack of info regarding Moskva boat? From typically decent sources I've read that it has sunk, that it's sailing under its own power,and now officially, that it's being towed. Still no photos. No photos makes me believe attack story more, attack by Western weapons and not Neptune. Hiding the damage caused. Seeing damage caused by Western weapon to boat would give beneficial info to West on such further use of weapon.

Posted by: NJH | Apr 14 2022 20:04 utc | 110

@Posted by: preseren3 | Apr 14 2022 19:51 utc | 102

We, which are living in Europe, have no possibility to open any of your links, based on RT, or Telegram.

I live in Europe and I have access to RT, Sputniknews etc. It is not the same everywhere.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 14 2022 20:05 utc | 111

re: Moskva
... sourced to kp.ru apparently FWIW

Posted by: ptb | Apr 14 2022 20:07 utc | 112

@NJH | Apr 14 2022 20:04 utc | 108

https://www.rt.com/russia/553902-flagship-sank/
Russian flagship sank – military
Missile cruiser ‘Moskva’ went down in the Black Sea while being towed to port, the Russian Defense Ministry said

https://sputniknews.com/20220414/russian-defense-ministry-damaged-moskva-cruiser-sunk-after-entering-stormy-waters-1094769157.html
Russian Defense Ministry: Damaged Moskva Cruiser Sunk After Entering Stormy Waters

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 14 2022 20:08 utc | 113

... and elsewhere
https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783626130.html


Posted by: ptb | Apr 14 2022 20:11 utc | 114

Posted by: Jerry1 | Apr 14 2022 19:56 utc | 104

You or I facing his consequences, would be coming up with the best story we could think of to try and save our assets too!!

Posted by: Kim | Apr 14 2022 20:11 utc | 115

Guys when you post comment, do you use notepad++ or bedit? Its a pain to type in links with cbc.ca/news manually.

Posted by: Calgary Guy | Apr 14 2022 20:15 utc | 116

Posted by: NJH | Apr 14 2022 20:04 utc | 108

It was an attack, even Russian sources admit it, not officially; everything else is spin.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 20:17 utc | 117

I meant typing links as described in "Please keep your comment short and to the point.

Allowed HTML Tags:" is difficult and time consuming.

Posted by: Calgary Guy | Apr 14 2022 20:18 utc | 118

Posted by: NJH | Apr 14 2022 20:04 utc | 108

You raise a good point here.

IF the ship was struck by Western weapons, Russia might want to acknowledge as much for several reasons. First, it would effectively force Russia into an escalation scenario they might not want to pursue at this time. Second, it would cause a lot of domestic political pressure on Putin to escalate, which he may want to avoid. Third, it prevents the Russian Navy looking vulnerable to NATO weapons.

I don’t know if the ship was struck by a missile at all, much less whether this missile was Western. But I believe Russia would have more reason to prevent that from becoming common knowledge than had the ship been struck by a Ukrainian missile.

Posted by: WJ | Apr 14 2022 20:22 utc | 119

THERE WAS NO UKRAINIAN MISSILES WHATSOEVER nor was there any "incompetence" due to the Moscova being 35km away from the Ukrainian Coast !! The Saker = The Ukronazis claim that they sunk the Moskva with two Neptune missiles. Wikipedia gives us two important technical details about this missile: its warhead is 150kg and its speed is subsonic which brings this specialized article to add “This missile travels at subsonic speed. It is estimated that due to its subsonic speed that anti-ship missile can be intercepted rather easily, especially by advanced defense system“. The Moskva displaces 12,490 tons, so I will assume that every person reading this will understand that 2x150kgb subsonic warheads are not enough to sink such a ship.
Thus the “sunk by Neptunes” is highly unlikely.
The electromagnetic space over the Ukrainian coast and the Black Sea is chock-full with signals from all the parties to the conflict.
The launch of two Neptune ASM would have been instantly detected not only by the Russians (including the very powerful radars on the Moskva) but also by the USA/NATO yet Kirby said “We don’t know what caused that explosion”, did he not? Yes, he could be lying, but why bother when the morale-boosting lie would be to claim that it was a Ukrainian ASM hit?
It seems that, like with Bucha, the US side is NOT endorsing the Ukronazi lies. I wonder why…

Posted by: opereta | Apr 14 2022 20:23 utc | 120

@ Calgary Guy | Apr 14 2022 20:15 utc | 114 - i have a mainframe computer... i don't know what others do on cell phones for posting..

sorry to hear of the moscow flagship sinking...

@ is anyone freezing kolomioskys bank accounts? didn't think so..

Posted by: james | Apr 14 2022 20:32 utc | 121

Suicide?

Unfriendly’ West delaying payments for Russian energy – Putin

https://www.rt.com/business/553864-west-delaying-russia-gas-payments/

Posted by: Kim | Apr 14 2022 20:33 utc | 122

on Moskva from DOD:

. . .There has been some speculation the damage was caused by a missile strike; however, the Pentagon cannot rule out other causes, the official noted. "There's lots of things on a surface combatant that are combustible ... that can cause explosions and cause fires," the official said.

The Moskva has munitions, artillery rounds, missiles, a propulsion plant and plenty of fuel onboard – any of which could explode for any number of reasons, the official said. "Any sailor will tell you, especially a sailor who served on a surface combatant, on any given day that the risk of a fire and explosion is real. And that's why [the Navy] takes damage control and fire prevention so seriously. On every U.S. Navy ship, we consider every sailor a firefighter for good reason," the official said.

The Moskva, commissioned in 1983 as the Slava and renamed the Moskva in 2000, measures about 612 feet in length with a beam, or width, of about 68 feet. . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 14 2022 20:36 utc | 123

I heard some claims on the Politrussia livestream that returning sailors in Sevastopol essentially confirmed that there was a missile strike and that they had even managed to collect the remains of the missiles. Who knows, there is so much fog of war around the events, these last couple of days in particular.

Another set of helicopter strikes by Ukraine on Russia proper, 7 people horrifically injured, including a pregnant woman and a 2 year old girl, 1 fatality so far. The only rational explanation for why the border isn't being guarded against this recurring threat of low flying helicopters is that they are, for some reason, unable to do so.

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 14 2022 20:37 utc | 124

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 14 2022 20:37 utc | 122

Yeah, it looks like the Russians did not expect outright terrorist tactics from AFU. There is no military benefit in destroying villages and killing people.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 20:51 utc | 125

Sweden seem to have a severe case of cognitive dissonance.

Supporting nazis abroad while fighting them back home.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/ost/oroligt-i-norrkoping-sparvagn-attackerad

They don't call them nazis, only right-wing extremists and blame a danish guy for the riots.

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 14 2022 20:56 utc | 126

As I mentioned in an earlier thread, I was stationed in West Berlin with the US Air Force 1970-72. The barracks in Tempelhof Airport in which I was housed had had underground levels that were flooded during the Battle of Berlin in 1945 and which I believe were still flooded when I was in Berlin. Certainly we airmen had no access to those underground levels.

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 14 2022 19:13 utc | 97

It shouldn't be to hard to pump the water out again.If they wanted to.It's done in mines all over the world.

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 14 2022 21:02 utc | 127

The US propaganda machine is not even striving for credibility anymore. Sloppy.

Russia’s leadership has ordered its troops to remove any evidence of crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine, and now they are using 13 mobile crematoriums to burn civilian bodies in the city of Mariupol.
The relevant statement was made by the Main Intelligence Department of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on Telegram, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 14 2022 21:02 utc | 128

@ Exile

I‘m starting to get concerned about the War Party organizing a long war of 3+ years. Thoughts ?

The housing crisis in London and Dublin will become untenable due to being English-speaking and due to not signing the 5 year moratorium on the East European countries citizens having right to work in 2004, a labour market terraformed to suit low wage Eastern Europeans.

Adding the East European countries to the EU will go down as the biggest mistake the EU ever made. It led directly to Brexit (The 'little England' cohort would have voted for it regardless but such unbelievably heavy immigration from the new EU states tipped a lot of Labour-voting working class voters towards it, most Europeans don't empathise because they have no idea how big the EU immigration wave was, they didn't experience it) and is now leading to all kinds of new disagreement as we discover we have almost nothing in common with them culturally, socially, economically or in terms of foreign policy as they seek to use Western European military power to enact revenge against the Russians.

Posted by: Altai | Apr 14 2022 21:03 utc | 129

Skiffer @122--

Clearly, Russia must finish the job. Helos flying nape-of-the-earth are very hard targets to detect and engage. If outside, it's possible to hear the rotors but hard to detect from what direction, and they don't stay long overhead to present a target--that's why they fly that way. On treeless steepe, there's no advantage, but in forested or suburban areas where line-of-sight is very limited, it's hard to get a shot off.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 14 2022 21:05 utc | 130

W. T. Whitney Jr., who will be well known to most north american radicals, has an article at Covert Action Magazine on biolabs. It is thorough and informative:
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/04/14/ukraine-war-reveals-possible-u-s-preparations-for-biological-warfare/

Posted by: bevin | Apr 14 2022 21:05 utc | 131

@ 11, 112, 115, 117

Thank you for the updates!

@118

That's a very fake an unrealistic attempt to throw mathematics against reality (much like einstein and his cult). Mass isn't at question here, the boat's mass will increase as it takes on water, it doesn't matter if it was a 500kg missile or a 1gm drillbit that made the hole, we're not talking about applying force pushing or moving the boat, we're talking about making holes in the boat. Saker is a classically trained warfare academic, and has been a quasi good source of opinion since 2014, he has his pitfalls though as Mr. Bentley has pointed out since 2014. The Russia will not have all her majestic EW and a2ad gizmos anywhere near this conflict neither land or sea based. Protecting the Russia capital, major cities, special asset and production locations yes any piece of unwanted electronic found approaching domestic site will fall to earth fast. R&D then production of EW cost many more than the decades old boat, and using them when not under great threat will quickly render them obsolete and useless i suppose.

Posted by: NJH | Apr 14 2022 21:06 utc | 132

The Russian flagship is sunk. Though backed up by oodles of nearby Russian electronics, defense systems, satellites, what have you. By old Ukie missiles amazingly undetected. The British shot Admiral Byng for failing to 'do his utmost' at Minorca. "Pour encourages les autres", as was said.

No whining, defensive excuses here. People failed to do their duty and should be made to pay for it. This looks like Hell. The current Russian timid slo-mo campaign is a disaster. The Russian military are capable of far better performance.

Posted by: John Thurloe | Apr 14 2022 21:12 utc | 133

Scott Horton received a tweet-threat from Google.
"Careful what you say there, warns Google in my email box." . .Important Notice here which essentially says there are no Nazis in Ukraine and we will "pause monetization" of any other claims. . .It's all abut the monetize.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 14 2022 21:12 utc | 134

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 14 2022 19:13 utc | 97

There are more such places in Germany, mysteries forgotten (by the Public).

Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 14 2022 21:18 utc | 135

Exile @1--

Russia's going to be in Ukraine a very long time--deNazification will take several generations. On the military side, given Russia's December security proposals, rolling-back NATO to its 1997 status comes next. Latvia has active Nazi militia a la Azov, and Poland is Poland. I rather doubt Poland or the Baltics will want to abandon NATO, but then it's not so much about what they want. The European phase of the Outlaw US Empire's War against the Eurasian Bloc could last the rest of the decade or it could end by 2023. It's all dependent on what NATO members abutting Russia do as they have two choices: First, they can say that they'll honor their OSCE Security commitment and leave NATO or Second, they can say Make Me. Russia will be happy to oblige regardless the answer.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 14 2022 21:21 utc | 136

Posted by: John Thurloe | Apr 14 2022 21:12 utc | 131

Assuming that it was the Neptunes that sank Moskva, they are not that old - circa 2019, also packed with latest electronics and helped by UAV, rec. aircraft and satellite guidance by US/UK. Some Russian channels claim that Moskva was alone in that area of the sea and the timing of the strike was selected to be during stormy conditions as well.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 21:23 utc | 137

Sad to hear that the Moskva sank after all. I was hoping she could be saved. Hopefully most of the sailors made it to safety.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 14 2022 21:24 utc | 138

from PrimeFeed, April 12
NATO secret service began monitoring the Russian fleet in the Black Sea

NATO secret service in Odessa began tracking Russian ships in the Black Sea
A Russian agent in the Ukrainian military said that NATO’s secret monitoring service began to work in Odessa and track Russian Navy ships. This was reported by RIA Novosti with reference to a source in the Russian law enforcement agencies and their Ukrainian informant.
According to the interlocutor of the agency, the NATO surveillance group operates in one of the suburbs of Odessa. Service workers are equipped with equipment that allows determining the exact coordinates of any ship in the Black Sea within a radius of 200 kilometers.
The main specialists are employees of the Romanian group PMC Nordstarsupport.
The interlocutor also noted that the group’s tasks are to prevent the landing of Russian troops in the Odessa region and to issue the location of Russian ships for targeting Ukrainian anti-ship missiles “Neptune”. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 14 2022 21:25 utc | 139

The Belgrano--excuse me--the Moskva has sunk. I sincerely hope there were no fatalities. However, and even if the latter proves the case, it strikes me as a bad augur indeed. Assuming that batteries in Odessa were responsible how is it possible that they had not been destroyed? Quite evidently the Black Sea is far from being a "Mare Russum" and consequently supremacy neither over nor air has been achieved by Russia. This surely limits Russian maneuverability and attack capacity, including protective cover for Russia not only in the contested Mariupol but over the south and east of Ukraine as a whole. A veritable fortress and command center has been lost by Russia and how is it that this debacle was not avoided in the very home of the Black Sea fleet? In short, how is that this far and this deep in the "Special Operation" Russia still can't declare air and sea supremacy in the Black Sea litoral?

Posted by: Ludovic | Apr 14 2022 21:26 utc | 140

Place is getting infested with degenerate Ukro propagandists whitewashing their wild fantasies with concern trolling.Provide footage of missiles hitting the "Moscow" ship or gtfo,the only thing Ukro missiles can hit is unfortunate civilians.

Posted by: Lolgege | Apr 14 2022 21:33 utc | 141

This thread, I would say, is mostly full of silliness. Here is what I say will happen. Probably within one to three weeks, Russia will be accepting Ukraine's absolute total surrender. There is a high likelihood of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers getting liquidated. Russia will set up about 15 permanent military bases in Ukraine. It pretty much is just that simple.

Posted by: blues | Apr 14 2022 21:34 utc | 142

also from PrimeFeed, April 12
Western intelligence services help Ukraine

On April 11, Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the Russian National Defense Control Center, said that a provocation against the Russian Armed Forces was currently being prepared in the village of Nizhnyaya Syrovatka in the Sumy region of Ukraine. . In preparing the provocation, the Ukrainian authorities, according to the colonel general, are assisted by the British intelligence services.
As conceived by the “British directors”, units of the Russian troops allegedly mass-killed civilians and mocked them as they retreated.
He added that the Western media will replicate another fake in the near future, and its aim is to stoke Russophobia in the context of the economic crisis in Europe. . .here

"its aim is to stoke Russophobia in the context of the economic crisis in Europe" . . .sure

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 14 2022 21:35 utc | 143

Posted by: Ludovic | Apr 14 2022 21:26 utc | 138

Maybe because they're not just facing Ukrainian? After all NATO have 8 years to embed and entrench themselves to Ukrainian territory.

Posted by: Lucci | Apr 14 2022 21:35 utc | 144

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 14 2022 21:02 utc | 126

The bit about the mobile crematoriums got a chuckle from me. I seem to remember allegations and "proof" that Saddam Hussein had mobile chemical weapons labs (that were never found, hmm..).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 14 2022 21:39 utc | 145

well, b has certainly got his next assignment / tomorrow's article laid out for him: the sinking of the Moskva

I certainly can't trust anything they say in the western propaganda system - so perhaps he can fill us in with the real skinny
IF the ship was hit by a neptune anti-ship missile that would be very very bad news; if it was an internal explosion that did the damage, that still looks pretty bad for Russia on the public relations front, not that the russians are very good with that either, I must say.

the narrative in the West is tightly controlled and getting tighter every day, and I'd like to see him give us his detailed/update take on that one too - twitter is less and less useful as several good sources have recently been suspended, like Scott Ritter, Pepe Escobar and others....

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 14 2022 21:40 utc | 146

re the many coments above, i.e. post 102, who can't open links to RT, Sputnik etc. I use the Yandex browser on my phone and computer and have complete access to all the western blocked sites. However if I try via safari, it's blocked, won't load or blank.

Posted by: Willow | Apr 14 2022 21:41 utc | 147

@ Boo 5

Given the how poor morale and pay in the Russian navy and the previous 2 disasters with the Admiral Kuznetsov, with the final fire that basically gutted her taking place in drydock in freezing conditions after the last fire (How many have there been?) there is absolutely plausible to me that this was an accident. I note that we don't have an indication of fatalities which would fit more with this being a fire that broke out and which the crew were able to get a safe distance from before the explosion as opposed to the idea that it got hit by 2 anti-ship missiles. If you're announcing that the ship has sunk and the crew 'evacuated' why not announce a serious loss of life?

That said, was it Ukrainian sources that first announced the ship was in trouble? That would basically confirm they hit it if so. A very serious escalation that might portent the Russians doing worse or a NATO/Ukrainian team up to knock out more ships if they don't keep a greater distance. Serious because it raises the risks of Russia losing in a way that is very seriously existential.

Sean Penn was recently on Fox News bemoaning how the US not being willing to use nukes or threaten them credibly against Russia in Ukraine and how that would impact the value of the nuclear deterrent in future. (Yes, try explaining that to 2003 Sean Penn) He said this without noting the obvious, that this could also be said for Russia. And infact, be much more true for Russia since they regard winning this war as existential. For the US this isn't existential as evidenced by how they haven't put any soldiers on the ground so it's use of nukes would actually be crazy and inappropriate. For example, nobody would consider it rational for the US to threaten nuclear war if the PRC invaded Taiwan. There might well be an air and naval battle for sure but if the US lost, nobody would expect them to nuclear.

They keep not appreciating that things like this going nuclear not being in their control.

Posted by: Altai | Apr 14 2022 21:44 utc | 148

We don't know to what extent NATO countries enabled the sinking of the Moskva. That should inform our judgment of the extent to which Russian planning failed.

By the way, can the Kosovo be raised to the surface? How deep is the Black Sea where she sank?

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 14 2022 21:44 utc | 149

There is zero evidence for any missile attack. Seriously, did the ukies suddenly realize 7 weeks into the fight they had a few missiles to lob at a Russian ship? All the evidence points to a fire and massive explosions in the 130 mm ammo compartment on the bow end. The damage such explosions would cause more than explain what happened. So while it is sad the ship floundered being taken in to port, it is understandable and the reality is that ship was over 40 years old and didnt even fit into the doctrine the new Russian navy is pursuing.

Posted by: nook | Apr 14 2022 21:52 utc | 150

Oldhippie | Apr 14 2022 16:52 utc | 49

I think there will be plenty of NATO sat coms amongst the Ukrainian units.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 14 2022 21:58 utc | 151

Posted by: james | Apr 14 2022 18:02 utc | 67 and 68

This has been making the rounds on Twitter today, via Matt Taibbi and others. No doubt this character's real name isn't what's on the passport, and that he's a part of this secret army.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-inside-militarys-secret-undercover-army-1591881

I'm not sure why it didn't get much traction last year when it was published.

Apropos to your post:

The signature reduction effort engages some 130 private companies to administer the new clandestine world. Dozens of little known and secret government organizations support the program, doling out classified contracts and overseeing publicly unacknowledged operations. Altogether the companies pull in over $900 million annually to service the clandestine force—doing everything from creating false documentation and paying the bills (and taxes) of individuals operating under assumed names, to manufacturing disguises and other devices to thwart detection and identification, to building invisible devices to photograph and listen in on activity in the most remote corners of the Middle East and Africa.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 14 2022 22:10 utc | 152

Posted by: nook | Apr 14 2022 21:52 utc | 148

There is zero evidence for sabotage and fire on board as well, MoD pronouncements notwithstanding. I linked above the analysis of an ex-mil who cites another ex-mil in here (in Russian):

https://t.me/atomiccherry/428
https://t.me/atomiccherry/429
https://t.me/atomiccherry/430

The most likely culprit are not the Neptunes, but the Norwegian anit-ship missiles NSM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Strike_Missile

which were bought two weeks ago from either Norway or Poland by UK and brought to Odesa. They link with the whole NATO satintel, rec-aircraft, networks, etc. The whole operation was executed by UK.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 22:16 utc | 153

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 22:16 utc | 151

Actually, these NSMs could have been in Odessa since last year, there was a post somewhere describing delivery with a fake commercial aircraft.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 22:19 utc | 154

I can no longer see Ukrainian statehood,especially with the developments (Russiaphobia) from the west now in full view.

Russia will now take the whole of Ukraine to ensure a bigger western boarder,which will be heavily armed as Russia fully pivots to the east.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 14 2022 17:31 utc | 59

Any outcome which does not leave Rosgvardia patrolling the Polish border will be a disaster:

Any unoccupied rump Ukraine such as--and _especially_--Galicia will be considered by the US, NATO and the UN to be the real, "independent" Ukraine, holding its UN seat, very likely admitted to NATO, possibly a nuclear base, and most certainly a base for unending US/NATO "covert operations" against the East.

This simply _can't_ be allowed by Russia; it would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 14 2022 22:24 utc | 155

On the Battleships of every Navy, Paul Keating was right:

"I always say to these American admirals that every great battleship went down in the first week at sea in the Second World War," the former prime minister told the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

"Just like these American carriers are going to be going down when the nasty fight starts. And I said to this [admiral] they all sound the same you know ... glug, glug, glug"', he added, to slightly startled laughter from an audience dominated by foreign policy wonks.

Link

Posted by: Menz | Apr 14 2022 22:24 utc | 156

Russians are starting to finally play hard:

https://t.me/mig41/16479
Very powerfull explosions in Kiev

https://t.me/mig41/16480
After the explosions in Kiev, electricity was lost in part of the city.

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 22:28 utc | 157

PeterAU1 @ 149

Thanks

Do I understand correctly? The system would be NATO - or EUCOM or whoever - communicates with many small scale units? That would make some sort of sense and would correspond with what we see. It is also going to be difficult and labor intensive. And would work better if there were lots and lots of trained liaison officers. It would also clue every line officer that they were not part of a national army but rather a catspaw. Maybe they like working direct for the big boss. Or maybe you meant something else?

Posted by: Oldhippie | Apr 14 2022 22:33 utc | 158

Why would the headquarters of U.S. Allied Land Command be in Izmir, Turkey, of all places? Does that reflect the importance of Turkish Army participation in NATO planning?

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 14 2022 19:06 utc | 94

I'd say it reflects the aggressive eastward-orientation of NATO now.

Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 14 2022 22:40 utc | 159

@ 149 & my 156

Wouldn’t that type of comms be vulnerable to jamming?

Posted by: Oldhippie | Apr 14 2022 22:43 utc | 160

fyi
I have seen at least two reports of the ukrainians firing at russian villages across the border.
Looks like it's just about show-time in the Donbass

Russians With Attitude
https://t.me/RWApodcast/98

I believe the war is about to heat up, for four reasons:
1) The siege of Mariupol is almost over; its end will free up a ton of Russian & Donbass troops for other major operations.

2) Strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces have reportedly been put on high alert.

3) The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that NATO vehicles transporting weapons for Ukraine are considered legitimate military targets.

4) The Russian Ministry of Defense has threatened to bomb "decision-making centers" in Ukraine, including Kiev, if the Ukrainians fire at Russian territory again.

46.4K views Apr 13 at 17:19

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 14 2022 22:51 utc | 161

This apparently is an Austrian military assessment of what is happening in Donbas.
Original article here https://www.bundesheer.at/cms/artikel.php?ID=11332

Translated in three twitter posts here https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1514661731599106050
This the first section (Yandex translate).

What are you waiting for Russia? Why does it all for longer? It is necessary to establish the General Dwornikow first?

The Operation has already begun. We now see a very different tactical leadership than in the first six weeks of the war. The Ukrainian positions to be attacked only after a massive artillery and multiple rocket launchers insert (v. a. BM 30 BM - 21 launchers). The Russians in front of the back then slowly (1.5 km/h) and to be careful. This is actually happening, and four Digits of the forming possible boiler. Only in the case of a breakthrough in the depth of the enclosure is to expect a sustained massive Russian approach of forces.

In the meantime, be led other forces, mainly from Belgorod approach. The overall coordination is done by General Dvornikov. He performs this since at least ten days. He led the Operation in this space that is so familiar with the position in more Detail. The result of his use of management, the successful perimeter of Ukrainian forces in Izjum and the outbreak of the Close in the direction of the South was already. A by-run, tank battle, the Russian counter-Ukrainian tanks in Kamina were able to decide the Russians for themselves. Despite the Ukrainian forces, to organize and to form a stable defense line. This testifies to the extremely high morale of the Ukrainian forces.
(the translation at the twitter link is better)

One aspect of the Ukraine regular military that I did not expect was their willingness to use civilians as human shields along with the nationalist groups. Eight years of pysops I guess.
It also looks as though most Ukie forces will move to the Donbas front with light weapons to be fed into the grinder which will save having to chase them all across Ukraine.

It is starting to look like the main thing Russia has to watch out for now is behind the lines covert ops and sabotage. US trained, US planned and US intel. Essentially US covert operations.

re the ship - it was shadowed by a US drone, so a fire and explosion on board, be it accident or sabotage can instantly be relayed to Ukraine to claim as a propaganda victory.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 14 2022 22:54 utc | 162

There is a forecast in this video. Is NATO and RF on same side?
https://youtu.be/ylaC0MUleZs”> 5 more Question…

Posted by: SailorsWife | Apr 14 2022 23:00 utc | 163

In response to Boo@123,

I'm willing to believe that they overlooked the possibility of cross-border strikes by chopper, at least the first time around. I don't believe they were, or at least should have been surprised, by the Ukrainians striking non-military targets -- 8 years should be enough for anyone to get the hint.

karlofi@128,

I understand and agree that there are objective factors making it difficult to intercept this threat. I've heard arguments relating to the inability of ground radar and heavy AA systems of picking up and dealing with these choppers, and speculations that US intel sharing is providing Ukraine with gaps in Russian air reconnaissance coverage.

Nevertheless, one has to admit that this is a situation which has uncovered a weakness in Russian territorial defense. Although it's still doubtful whether the same tactic could be employed to strike at high value targets inside Russia, the absence of such strikes won't do much to comfort the general public if choppers continue ravaging the Russian countryside and, what's especially significant, getting away with it.

And I'm talking about the individuals carrying out these attacks. Retaliation on command centers is considered by the general public as something of a surrealist threat, since it suggests Russia has been intentionally sparing the lives of the people who've been giving orders to commit acts of terrorism on a massive scale to the detriment of its own fighting forces -- I don't believe this warning was received with much enthusiasm by the Russian public. The perception is that if these operations do rely on some command & control centers, these will be located out of reach, meaning in areas where strikes would lead to escalation disproportional to the rather limited loss of life and property so far incurred, and even issuing these warnings is seen as a tacit confirmation of Russian inability to detect and down these helos on approach. In short, it's not a good look.

If there's a lesson learned from these events on how to improve defenses for future skirmishes, there is valuable information being traded for inconsequential targets. But, for every strike carried out successfully, there's going to be an increasing penalty in public morale and confidence. Russia is, after all, a democratic country and not some dictator's plaything the way Western propaganda likes to portray it, and strategically poor decisions do occur as the result of, however well meaning, public pressure.

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 14 2022 23:06 utc | 164

@159 michaelj72

re: "if UA fires at RF territory again"

they just did, shouldn't be surprising

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/42421

Provocation / terror games have been second nature to the post-2014 Kiev approach to state power. It has worked remarkably well for them until now (the West loves them more than ever)... so no stopping now.

Russians however just gonna get more pissed off. Expect more property damage in the air strikes going forward, and way higher life insurance rates for the next batch of foreign mercs.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 14 2022 23:12 utc | 165

When Russia warns about taking out command and control centers is it possible they are talking about US/NATO targets?
Because I thought they took out Ukrainian command and control on the first day.
It's possible that Russia was trying to avoid a larger war by not killing non-Ukie commanders, but is now ready to do so.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 14 2022 23:30 utc | 166

Sorry if this has already been posted.

Ok, so I’m new to Telegram… just looking at the Russian Ministry of Defence and they have
this video from an exercise involving two submarines with the Pacific Fleet.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/863

They launched underwater cruise missiles from the Sea of Japan. And successfully hit a target - a special marine shield imitating a surface ship of a mock enemy.

Given what happened today with the Moskva, I think this is worth noting.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Apr 14 2022 23:43 utc | 167

RT: Ukrainian officials claimed their forces had struck the vessel with anti-ship missiles. The Pentagon said it could not confirm the claim. A US drone circled above the cruiser on Thursday, monitoring its progress towards Sevastopol.

The most likely cause of the loss is an accident on the ship. A fire. In a storm something inflammable could have been spilled over a hot surface and burned into flames.
Anyway, the ship was old and with some technical problems in its recent history. Very very old. The oldest cruiser in US Navy is from 1986 and the US plans to decommission all of their fleet in the following 3-4 years. They wanted to do that earlier but the Congress did not approve it. The Ticonderoga-class.

Posted by: GeMC | Apr 14 2022 23:43 utc | 168

@163 "...and way higher life insurance rates for the next batch of foreign mercs."

There probably won't be quite so many foreign mercs in future. They don't do any fighting anyway. Just take a few selfies and go home.

Posted by: dh | Apr 14 2022 23:46 utc | 169

It's very odd, that the whole infrastructure in western Ukraine is untouched.
It would certainly be possible the cripple much of the transport, and so stop worrying of Nato/ USA arms shipments.
For example, the only bridges blown up in Ukraine, as far I know, are the ones destroyed by Ukraine itself.
The dragging of the war, and the lack of power in it, is now encouraging Finland to join Nato, so doubling the length of Russia-Nato border.
New Nato members, not removing the old ones; exact contrary, what Russia is demanding!

Posted by: ka | Apr 14 2022 23:50 utc | 170

Posted by: Boo | Apr 14 2022 22:16 utc | 151

Agree 100%

NATO special ops in Odessa reported on 12th.

Uk been banging on about anti-ship missiles (I am not suggesting it was a UK supplied missile - it just all starts adding up that the UK/NATO had involvement, at least with targeting). Uk surveilance aircraft also reported last night.

Biggest giveaway - BBC was supporting the Russian line, they even posted a link to concerns over fire safety "Fire safety concerns raised in the past about Moskva". Just do a search - you can find the article on their feed.

The BBC NEVER supports the Russian line. They always do "fact checks", spout 300 words as fact and then at the end enter ", Ukraine says". It has not been the case for the Moskva. They have downplayed this so much - as has the US - that my alarms went off immediately. Any other incident they scream like harpies.

The fact that this is all being downplayed suggests everyone has decided that the best thing to do is to keep it quiet. Escalation is avoided (for now). Russia saves face (sort of). Messages were sent and received. I suspect all actors know what really happened.

Posted by: RJ | Apr 14 2022 23:51 utc | 171

Posted by: RJ | Apr 14 2022 23:51 utc | 169

I'm very much inclined to believe similarly.

Posted by: ka | Apr 15 2022 0:00 utc | 172

If the Moskva sank by anti ship missile fire then I would expect some casualties dead and wounded. It is reported that the crew of 500 made it off safely. If that is to be believed then it was probably and accident.

Posted by: circumspect | Apr 15 2022 0:10 utc | 173

@167

The guys who make the most memorable videos are the clowns. But there are also ones actually holding together some of these quickly built up armies that are found in proxy wars. Which this war surely is. Even tho UA started with a formidable army, the experienced+motivated core gets consumed faster than how long it took to train them. They'll need help to cement subsequent rounds of reserves into a passable force. Besides even now they'll need guys to interface with all the US tech infrastructure they're getting plugged into, guys who know how to use the Western NATO gear they just got gifted. The fig-leaf formality for all that is "private enterprise". And as far as that goes, the men playing the part aren't dumb, they expect to get a fair price.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 0:12 utc | 174

Skiffer @162--

Thanks for your reply! I didn't mean to belittle such attacks, just point out how hard they are to defend against. Yes, sterner, stricter measures must be taken defensively Deploying hunter helos to detect and attack would be possible, although it would take 24-36 or even more given the need to rotate helos to refuel since the watch would last 12+ hours to cover the region being assaulted. Drones tracking them to their lair so they can be eliminated on the ground together with support staff and logistics would also be good. I would hope Russian command has thought of such measures and will implement something. Drones loitering at the border to detect and trace would be the tactic I'd employ as many can be fielded and most have high endurances.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 15 2022 0:20 utc | 175

ISIS-tactics by the same masters!

The Pentagon instructed the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw all the remaining artillery to the cities on the eastern front - Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, where they can fire behind civilians. Restraining the offensive of the Russian troops is prescribed by small mobile groups armed with mortars and anti-tank systems, moving across the steppe in civilian vehicles. There is nothing surprising in the fact that the Americans impose terrorist tactics on their pets, in which their people are taken hostage. But the fact that Ukrainian resources write about this quite openly, and treat such methods with understanding, and as the only correct one, cannot but amaze.
@WarDonbass
23:28

Posted by: ka | Apr 15 2022 0:20 utc | 176

ISIS tactics by the same masters!

The Pentagon instructed the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw all the remaining artillery to the cities on the eastern front - Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, where they can fire behind civilians. Restraining the offensive of the Russian troops is prescribed by small mobile groups armed with mortars and anti-tank systems, moving across the steppe in civilian vehicles. There is nothing surprising in the fact that the Americans impose terrorist tactics on their pets, in which their people are taken hostage. But the fact that Ukrainian resources write about this quite openly, and treat such methods with understanding, and as the only correct one, cannot but amaze.
WarDonbass
23:28

Posted by: ka | Apr 15 2022 0:23 utc | 177

@172 I'm sure there are some highly paid 'trainers' but they probably aren't on the front lines. I was thinking more of adventurous types like young Aidan Eslin. He looked very apologetic in his recent interview. But no doubt if he ever gets home he'll say he was forced to talk like that.

Posted by: dh | Apr 15 2022 0:38 utc | 178

It's still likely that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers will be getting liquidated in Western Ukraine. But by attempting to send $750 billion dollars worth of military kit across the Ukraine border the US/NATO has just set the most devious trap for themselves in military history. Oh man...

Posted by: blues | Apr 15 2022 0:41 utc | 179

Western Ukraine --> Eastern Ukraine.

Posted by: blues | Apr 15 2022 0:48 utc | 180

I am reading that Russia has been attacked again and expect their response to be immediate and brutal on some place in Kiev

Escalation here we come....I am glad I am going dancing this evening..

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 15 2022 0:53 utc | 181

psychohistorian | Apr 15 2022 0:53 utc | 179

Gonzalo Lira
@realGonzaloLira
·
1h
Tonight is very busy in Ukraine:

▪️Kiev: Massive explosions in center from 1am, some parts going dark. Many say Calibre strikes, no confirmation yet.

▪️Kharkov: I heard massive shelling starting at 1am.

▪️Ivano-Frankivsk: The last oil refinery in Ukraine has been destroyed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 0:56 utc | 182

Bye bye, Deveselu.

Posted by: Ornos | Apr 15 2022 1:14 utc | 183

Another set of helicopter strikes by Ukraine on Russia proper, 7 people horrifically injured, including a pregnant woman and a 2 year old girl, 1 fatality so far. The only rational explanation for why the border isn't being guarded against this recurring threat of low flying helicopters is that they are, for some reason, unable to do so.

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 14 2022 20:37 utc | 122

So Ukraine is purposely going after civilians. Isn't that a war crime?

Posted by: Quiet Rebel | Apr 15 2022 1:15 utc | 184

Bye bye, Redzikowo.

Posted by: Ornos | Apr 15 2022 1:17 utc | 185

Two super corrupt oligarch states fighting against each other, with the bigger one naturally trying to swallow and digest the smaller one, in the manner of an anaconda, though the smaller weaker one seems to have gotten stuck, perhaps even quite dangerously, in the gullet of the giant predator. Why so? Well, because it was being used as bait with very dangerous hooks concealed within by a hunter of giant slow-witted opportunistic predators called NATO. All this should of course have been obvious to the Russians who are, needless to say, in reality quite sentient and intelligent, and yet they did it all same. Really the act, the immediate voracious intent, seems almost suicidal for Russia. It vaguely brings to mind the case of the Argentine junta and its war against the UK for control of the Malvinas/Falklands, a war that should have been strategically indefensible for the UK, but which it nevertheless won, and which resulted in the sinking of the Argentine battleship cruiser ARA General Belgrano, with the loss of several hundred hands. In any case, it was a surreal war in that defense of the Falklands should have been unsustainable for the UK, but Argentina basically lost the will to fight after the sinking of Belgrano and Thatcher, whose future prime ministerial future was in the doldrums, experienced a quite positive reversal of fortune and lead her party to renewed political victory against Labour. If Argentina had actually conspired against itself to aid the conservative political side in UK they would hardly have been able to do better. Since the beginning of Russia's war of aggression I've had the bizarre feeling that Russia is playing against itself and thereby against its future, and in a sense that is not at all just figurative or parabolic.

Posted by: Ludovic | Apr 15 2022 1:24 utc | 186

@ PavewayIV

I was really enlightened (and seriously alarmed) by your post of a few days ago about possible covert Ukr nukes. Ukraine has served well as a complete black site: money and intelligence laundering, assassinations, recruitment and cleansing of unwanted populations (US gun-nut larpers seduced into Ukr, now entombed at Azovstal), a vast gun, drug and slave emporium, where the world's largest mafia is underwritten by Western intelligence, a place to go to indulge in the worst depravity, a mecca for Nazis, sociopaths and thugs... oh, and full of Ukrainians.

And old nuclear material. We know that it was the clearing house for Soviet gear after 1991. It continues to be that, only now for NATO gear. The possibility that Ukraine could launch a tactical nuke or dirty bomb and bear all the sins for it is very, very worrying.

Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 15 2022 1:37 utc | 187

As for what did in the Moskva, of course it could have been an "accident" except for the timing. IMHO, we may be looking at something exotic here - thinking outside the box, a switchblade 600 has 80km range (!) and perhaps the particular munitions on the Moskva that were hit are in a particularly vulnerable spot.

In any case, the Russian Admiralty does not (now or in recent history) inspire much confidence, and in general I think the Russian Military are spending way too much time reading Andrei Martynov and healthiest approach for them is to run a bit scared and not pansy around - that is the surest route to defeat. You really CANNOT have guns and butter at the same time and the Russians really need to get down to business unless they want to lose.

Posted by: Simplicius | Apr 15 2022 1:37 utc | 188

Ludovic,

What do you think Russia should have done after Zelensky's speech at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 19 in the presence of Kamala Harris claiming the right to have nuclear weapons? That demanded a response as much as Soviet missiles on Cuba did.

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 15 2022 1:37 utc | 189

Practically the first thing Russia did upon invading Ukraine was to occupy Chernobyl. They were obviously worried about dirty bombs.

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 15 2022 1:42 utc | 190

Lysias | Apr 15 2022 1:42 utc | 188

Going by the amount of material they have on the US bio weapons program, Russia also had a definite target in mind that they secured very early before evidence could be removed or destroyed.
I posted the latest bio weapons briefing in the open thread.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 1:54 utc | 191

On the naval aspect of the war in the Black Sea

The loss of Moskva to a missile (assuming that is indeed what happened) appears on the surface to be a grievous loss, but is actually less than it seems. The 40-year-old ship obviously had seen better days and was somewhat obsolete. Back in the Cold War, Khrushchev derided the American aircraft carriers as floating coffins for their crews and completely useless, precisely because they are vulnerable to missile attacks. The navies of the world continue to love big ships for the admirals to parade around in, but they are all white elephants, because now all strength is in missiles. So, apart from nuclear missile submarines that can hide underwater, theoretically, and are an important part of the nuclear arsenals of the various powers, large surface ships are merely vulnerable targets. The only exception is when the Empire's vile task forces are abusing the weak who cannot fight back, which is why the US still has many large surface ships, even though they are still mostly just parading boondoggles.

Historically, the uselessness of larger ships was illustrated when the Israeli destroyer Eilat was sunk by an Egyptian missile boat around 1970; Israel immediately got rid of its larger surface ships after that. It was demonstrated again in the Falklands War, when first the Argentine air force sank four British surface ships with Exocet missiles, Argentina's only notable success in the war, and then the British sank the largest Argentine warship, the old cruiser General Belgrano, killing a lot of Argentine naval cadets in those cold waters in doing so. The General Belgrano was the former USS Phoenix which had been at Pearl Harbor. Commissioned in 1938, it was 44 years old when sunk, quite similar to the Moskva.

Today, when not abusing weak countries without modern weapons in the way the US Navy does, surface fleets only need small missile boats, as these can sink all the big ships. Also, in a confined sea like the Black Sea, naval forces aren't that important, because missiles can easily and almost instantly reach any surface ships from land. If it was Russia against Turkey or vice versa, as those countries do not touch, then, yes, one might want an ability to cross the water, but Ukraine is contiguous with Russia, so that is unnecessary. Were Russia to desire to completely blockade Ukraine's coast, including Odessa, land-based missiles would actually suffice. These can be supplemented by small missile-armed boats, which also could actually stop ships to check for contraband or whatever.

Posted by: Cabe | Apr 15 2022 2:01 utc | 192

I knew about the US biolabs in Ukraine because they figure prominently in Gees van der Pijl's book "States of Emergency", published in January. So public information.

Posted by: Lysias | Apr 15 2022 2:02 utc | 193

I do voiceovers for SouthFront's video reports. I also write extensively on propaganda, military strategy -- and Biden's War -- under various names.
I don't always agree with SouthFront's analyses which depend on various correspondents but generally they are pretty accurate and at least point you in the right direction.
I know that some people don't regard them highly--but they are volunteers (like me) who try to make a difference. Last night's report covered the Moskva. SF reported that while the details weren't known exactly, the ship had probably been hit by Neptune missiles and may have sunk due to "inclement weather". Their report was ahead of the MoD announcement later that this was the case. SF feels that a.) there is a failure in the Russian command structure - a lack of unity -- which leads to mistakes and losses b.) that the RF does not regard this as a real "war" c.) more Russian forces have to be applied, rather than the minimal force available now. These are all reasonable arguments. about and set up the strategy to win the first Gulf War. Boyd often used Israeli military tactics to illustrate how this system worked in practice when used properly. Look here for a more complete explanation: https://charliepinto.com/post/auftragstaktik-in-one-simple-diagram.

Posted by: The Orakle | Apr 15 2022 2:10 utc | 194

Auftragstaktik distributes responsibilities and decison-making differently from the more rigid, top-down mindset of UK and US militaries. So, it doesn't appear "unified" in the same way. At the beginning of WWII, foreign militaries were surprised at German successes with smaller forces against the combined might of Britain and France and ascribed it to all sorts of things, better technology and so on -- when it really came down to the Germans being able to apply force better, giving more flexibility and initiative to local commanders on the battlefield, and having better morale as fighting teams. OK, so that's a.)
Now "b.)". Do the Russians see this as a real war. The answer is yes. But they recognize that Ukraine is just one battle of a larger conflict, in essence WWIII -- a global conflict that started when the US and its vassal states realized that Russia and China were threatens by virtue of their rapid development and autonomy. "World wars" never really involve the entire world -- just empires with global ambitions-- and they are the result of greed, inequality, and the predation of elites.Each "world war" is also shaped by technologies. in WWI, it was the advent of media propaganda, leveraging universal education, the machine gun, the submarine, and the torpedo (among other things) In WWII, it was progress in aerial weaponry, tanks, aircraft carriers, and communications.

Posted by: The Orakle | Apr 15 2022 2:11 utc | 195

WWIII is shaped by the limits imposed on warfare by nuclear weapons. When both sides have these weapons and delivery systems, the war cannot get physical so it devolves to economic warfare, subversion and proxy attacks. If Saddam had had WMD, he would have been safe. Just as North Korea is . Putin is smart and a student of history, not to mention an orientalist, with martial arts interests: he cannot fail to understand this war is being fought in various arenas, and it will not be over with the fall of Zelensky's government. He must win economically by undermining the dollar and also morally by wisely eschewing the Propaganda War and sticking to principle. So, the "war" against Ukraine is characterized as an "operation", and conducted under completely different rules than would be the case with the "West"-- preserving life and property, rather than "shock & awe" destruction.

Posted by: The Orakle | Apr 15 2022 2:11 utc | 196

Now, "c.)" from my earlier post -- Russia use of minimal force. Russia calculated its forces carefully. Set piece warfare would require a lot of troops and materiel and would be inefficient and costly -- which of course is what the West wanted. It would also expose the RF to sudden attack by NATO "peacekeepers' (or whatever they would call them). Maneuvre combat was initially costly with the RF punching through UAF lines to tide down the UAF in the West while kettling its best forces in the East and reducing their advantage in numbers from the air. Now, it is clear that the UAF is finished in the East (wack a mole time!), the RF will inject new forces into the conflict to take all of the Ukraine east of the Dniepr.
They will also have the option of striking west to the Polish border to prevent reinforcement and effectively "kettle" Kiev's "decision-making" centers. In this conflict, the UAF WILL have some successes, such as the Moskva. But let us keep in mind that the Moskva was old, which was slated for retirement, if not scrapping in 2016, but kept on line because it was useful off Syria. But for the weather, it probably could have been saved. But it really wasn't designed for this kind of conflict. It merely demonstrates the vulnerability of large ships of dated concept. Ummm...such as American aircraft carriers?
My arguments are informed by these articles: https://julianmacfarlane.medium.com/putin-and-the-fighter-pilot-e5ab315e51ef And :https://julianmacfarlane.medium.com/the-tao-of-vladimir-putin-5029122a2638

Posted by: The Orakle | Apr 15 2022 2:13 utc | 197

Posted by: Ludovic | Apr 15 2022 1:24 utc | 184

Thanks for recycling The Gruaniad's lead story for us here at MoA.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2022 2:14 utc | 198

Lysias | Apr 15 2022 2:02 utc | 191

Did that also list the sites in Ukraine where solid documentation would be found?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2022 2:16 utc | 199

South front is full of shit. They push emotional hysteria over fact based analysis. Avoid their click bait bullshit.

Posted by: Nook | Apr 15 2022 2:24 utc | 200

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