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April 14, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-46

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

Posted by b on April 14, 2022 at 14:39 UTC | Permalink

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Croatian authorities blame Russia for drone that crash landed in Croatia last month, however the evidece suggests it was launched from Western Ukraine.

"All technical evidence clearly points to direct Ukrainian responsibility. Firstly, the alleged "Russian-made drone" was actually built in the Soviet Ukraine during the Cold War, and today it is in service only with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There is no evidence of Russian use in the last 33 years. Secondly, taking into account the known flight time over the three countries, the cruising speed and the maximum range of 1,000 km, the Tu-141 obviously took off from a mobile launcher at the Vinnytsia Airbase in western Ukraine.

This is exactly 1,024 km away from the Zagreb crash site (see map above). The city of Vinnytsia, which is under Ukrainian control, serves as the headquarters of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, and is known for operating Tu-141 drones."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2022 15:13 utc | 301

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 14:54 utc | 296

From the last shipment, the switchblades are aparently already in use,, yandex + some fixes:

For the first time, the use of kamikaze drones by Ukrainian troops was noted in the Slaviansk direction.

Two American Switchblade UAVs ("Switchblade") attacked the positions of Russian tanks, but did not cause any damage. Apparently, the operators are just beginning to master the new technology.

I ran in Karabakh from similar Israeli-made drones - Harop - an unpleasant thing.


Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 15:16 utc | 302

@ Circe 297
if Russia attacked the U.S. by proxy, and were trying to cripple it economically as the U.S. is doing with Russia today, half of Russia would already be obliterated
And furthermore, China is criticized for not following the Bush Doctrine: If you're not for us you're against us. This, by the CIA chief who warned Biden prior to the Russian invasion that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, and Biden did nothing positive, which he excels at.
China's Xi Jinping is 'a silent partner' in Putin's 'aggression' in Ukraine, CIA Director Burns warns

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 15 2022 15:20 utc | 303

"..Ukraine wasn't just a Soviet puppet state..." Mikhail-Raygun@298

It was a constituent of the USSR, not a puppet but an integral and powerful part of the federation. You could, if you chose, call Hungary or Poland satellites or puppets. But not Ukraine or, for example, Georgia.
As yo the Ukrainian Republic of 1918 it was founded by the German General Staff whose ghost now inhabits the Pentagon.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 15 2022 15:24 utc | 304

@Boo 292

"read Russian fluently, 90-95% comonnality with my language" ... You should know far better than I do, then.

IMO what these combinations of amateur-reporting and "alt-media" have, which is of value, are two things: (1) is the motivation and collective time spent, to scour social media, obscure news outlets, or in some cases unofficial leaks taking the form of the previous categories. Equally important (2) is the refusal to abide by mental filters that the national media and the authoritative primary sources impose on themselves. The exact selection of just when one "refuses to abide by mental filters" is of course is profoundly colored by political bias.

But assuming you have a way to resolve that last challenge, then the tradeoff is lack of a professional standard of "quality control". In the world we are now in, there is also a widespread professional effort to degrade the information quality available to the public and even more so to journalists and to the social networks of the professional-managerial-class. Ironically, this makes even somewhat unreliable rumor mongers more competitive in information quality than they would have been before.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 15 2022 15:31 utc | 305

I am sadly convinced that the outcome of this war is also existential for the United States at this point.
No matter how hard I look, I don't see an acceptable outcome for both sides that would allow a de-escalation.
Please show me I'm wrong.

Posted by: Marjorie | Apr 15 2022 11:54 utc | 262

I've been mulling over this post of Marjorie's all morning. Also: Russia's latest "formal diplomatic note" calling for NATO to stop arming Ukraine (among other things), acknowledged in state organs like the Washington Post as advance notice of impending attacks on supply convoys. And et cetera. It's national sleepwalking, with eyes wide open, here in Oz -- follow the yellowcake road.

Sorry I can't show you you're wrong. I must have missed that offramp.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 15 2022 16:02 utc | 306

@ Paul Greenwood | Apr 15 2022 9:56 utc | 247

Dear Paul, you misunderstand me. The only parallel I was drawing was to the fact that the Belgrano and the Moskva were both obsolete ships 40 or more years old, so that the loss of the Moskva is less important than many persons seem to think. I said that the situations were utterly dissimilar otherwise. And I do not support the Ukrainian state or Ukrainian nationalism. Nor do I think there is any parallel between the situation of the British in 1982 and Russia now; to assert that would be the height of absurdity.

Posted by: Cabe | Apr 15 2022 16:25 utc | 307

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2022 12:52 utc | 274

You wish. Le Pen is currently in full defensive mode in the MSM, having to try to prove she's not a nazi everywhere she goes, while Macron is sitting happy at home in the Elysee, not having to answer to any of this stuff because nobody will have the courage to ask. We are hoping against hope.

Posted by: Lemming | Apr 15 2022 16:39 utc | 308

@Aleph_Null #306
Will the peoples of Europe wake up when the lights go out? Last hope.

Posted by: Marjorie | Apr 15 2022 18:08 utc | 309

I wonder why they don't pump acetylene down into the ventilation system of the tunnels below Azovstal. When it reaches a concentration of about 1-2% with air the entire mixtures becomes a fuel air explosive that detonates.

Gasoline vapor will do the same.

It won't have enough energy to collapse the tunnels but will take out much within them.

Posted by: bottle | Apr 15 2022 19:38 utc | 310

Dr Roberts has again repeated his assertion that Putin has left it too late and that his policy of carefully advancing in Ukraine has encouraged the USA and its allies to believe that Russia is weak and that this perceived weakness may lead to nuclear war ..
Perhaps we could look at this the other way around?
Why didn’t the USA push ahead for regime change when it realized that Putin was standing up for Russia and wouldn’t accept western exploitation?
Why wait until Russia has demonstrated its military superiority before provoking war?
Any thoughts?

Posted by: Stevelancs | Apr 16 2022 3:22 utc | 311

Posted by: Boo | Apr 15 2022 14:23 utc | 292

I read Russian fluently, 90-95% comonnality with my language.

What language is that? I do not know any language that is so close to Russian... actually that degree of commonality would make that language pretty much Russian...

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 16 2022 3:44 utc | 312

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