Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 18, 2022

The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?

Russian and Donbas forces have cleared the city of Mariupol except for the giant metallurgic complex of Azovstal which is held by some estimated 4,000 men, including many from the fascist Azov battalion.

On Sunday Russia opened corridors across the front line and asked for those forces to surrender. However the Zelensky government ordered them to stay and to continue to bind Russian forces which otherwise could be used elsewhere:

Russia had given the Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol until Sunday morning to lay down their weapons or be “eliminated.” On Sunday, the forces at the plant ignored the deadline, and Ukrainian officials vowed that they would not surrender. In response, the Russian assault intensified, with missiles and bombs hitting the city and new attacks occurring near the plant, according to the Ukrainian military.
...
Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that the struggle was not over for Mariupol, which for two months has tied up Russian troops and resources that are badly needed elsewhere.

The Azovstal complex is a 2 by 2 miles industrial area. It can be surrounded and controlled by a relatively small force. Those within the area no longer have heavy artillery ammunition and presumably little other supplies. The Russian forces can see and bomb anything that moves on the open ground and can otherwise sit back and wait their enemies out.

I do not believe that holding on to Azovstal will significantly delay the upcoming second phase of the Russian operation which will surround and destroy the Ukrainian army on the Donbas front.

The Russian military has two huge advantage over the Ukrainian forces in the east. One is of course its air superiority. The other is the unimpeded supply line which allows it to get as much heavy artillery ammunition, fuel and food to its forces as it needs.

Without fuel the Ukrainian army can not move and without constant supply, especially of large amounts of artillery munitions, it can not counter Russian artillery which will be in heavy use against it.

This pictures of a former Ukrainian position show the devastating result of such a situation.


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Nearly all of the Ukrainian ammunition and fuel supplies have been bombed and destroyed. What is trickling in through its western borders has difficulties to reach the eastern front and is anyway not enough to supply an actively fighting and maneuvering army.

On April 16 Russia shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane that was bringing 'western' weapons to Odessa. Today it destroyed another ammunition depot near Lviv were 'western' weapons are crossing the border into Ukraine. Some bits of fuel allegedly still reach the Ukraine through trains from Moldova. But that is far from enough.

Here is a week old report on the fuel situation:

Since the beginning of the war, the number of gas stations in Ukraine has decreased three times, and private fuel consumption has decreased by about the same amount, said Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

“According to our estimates, a third of the total number of gas stations is operating, this is about 2.5 thousand stations, before the war there were 7.5 thousand. Of course, the main reason is the lack of fuel. Consumption has also decreased three times compared to the pre-war level,” he said at a closed briefing at the Media Center in Lviv on Monday.

At the same time, Kuyun noted that traders or network owners are forced to provide their most strategic and powerful facilities, located mainly in regional centers or on main routes, while peripheral stations are forced to stand idle, although there are also a lot of consumers there.

According to him, the shortage of fuel became especially aggravated after the shutdown of the Kremenchug Oil Refinery as a result of a missile attack by Russian invaders.
...
On April 2, the Russian invaders destroyed the infrastructure of the Kremenchug oil refinery with their shelling, and it stopped working.

The damage done daily to the Ukrainian military and military industry is huge. One can get a sense of it when one reads through the briefings of the Russian defense ministry. From today's morning brief (here in full as some have difficulties accessing the site):

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles destroyed 16 military assets of Ukrainian overnight.

Among them: 5 enemy command posts, 1 fuel storage facility, 3 ammunition depots, as well as military personnel and equipment concentrated in Barvenkovo, Gulyai Pole, Kamyshevakha, Zelenoe Pole, Velikomikhailovka and Nikolaev.

Operational-tactical aviation hit 108 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment.

In addition, 1 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down by an air-to-air missile near Buda.

Army aviation destroyed 8 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, as well as up to a company of enemy manpower near Pashkovo, Veseloe and Illichevka.

Missile troops struck with high-precision Iskander land-based missiles. 4 arms depots and Ukrainian military equipment were destroyed, as well as 3 areas enemy manpower concentration near Popasnaya, Yampol and Kramotorsk.

Russian artillery units hit 315 Ukrainian assets overnight.

18 command posts, 22 artillery batteries, 1 OSA-AKM anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 275 enemy strong points and areas of concentration of enemy manpower were hit.

Russian air defence means shot down 3 Ukrainian combat aircraft in the air: 2 MiG-29 fighters near Izyum and 1 Su-25 near Avdeevka.

11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down in the air near Klimovo, Nevelskoe, Novotroitskoe, Izyum, Panteleimonovka, Sladkovodnoe and Yasnoe. 10 large-calibre rockets fired by Ukrainian multiple rocket launchers at Chernobaevka were intercepted.

In total, 139 aircraft, 483 unmanned aerial vehicles, 250 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,326 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 254 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,004 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,184 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

This has now been going on daily for more than a month. While the precision of the above numbers is somewhat uncertain I do not think that they are exaggerated by much. Yesterday there was no particular heavy fighting and the equipment destroyed on that one day alone was already more than what the U.S. has in total promised to send.

That means that the military destruction and defeat of the Ukrainian forces in the country's east is all but assured.

What then is the strategy that government in Kiev and its overlords in Washington DC are following? Why has the Ukraine not given up? Why didn't it continue to negotiate with the Russian side?

Is their hope that their daily over the top 'Russia is losing' propaganda will create enough political momentum for a large scale NATO intervention?

That would end in a disaster for the NATO forces.

Russia is obviously prepared for it. It has so far held back large parts of its own forces. Russia has at least 12 tactical missile artillery brigades, each with 36 Iskander missile launchers and 144 fire ready missiles. Only three of the those brigades plus a third of two other ones have so far been committed:

Three brigades, or a total of 36 Iskander launchers (two missiles each plus two resupply missiles per launcher) were deployed to Belarus as part of the buildup to war in Ukraine. Two additional brigades (12 launchers) were also assigned to Russia's Southern Military District and moved forward in the area of Belgorod near the Russian border; and to the area of Krasnodar, south of Ukraine.

Most of the Russian airforce has likewise been held back.

On March 24 the Pentagon claimed that Russia was running out of precision munitions. However, if the Russian defense ministry report is correct, at least 16 precision air ground missiles and 7 Iskander were used just yesterday. To me that does not sound like 'limited supplies'.

Other issues:

Since Saturday Gonzalo Lira, who has been reported from Kharkov, is no longer reachable. He seems to have been captured or killed by the Ukrainian Gestapo-like SBU. Sadly I had expected that. Doing hours of Youtube live streams when your enemy controls the internet in your area is not very smart.

A picture of the damaged Russian cruiser Moscwa was published today.


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The Russian cruiser was damaged last week and sunk. The ship is listing and so it must have additional damage below its waterline. The picture shows fire midships on its port side where two of its close-in weapons systems and their ammunition storages are. The ships crane is deployed right above that area. The large anti-ship missiles towards the bow and the S-300 air defense launchers behind the deckhouse seem intact. The port side life rafts are no longer where they were and must have been launched. That means that a significant part of the crew likely got off the ship alive before it sank.

The picture does not tell us what has happened. Was this an accidental ammunition explosion as Russia had first claimed or was the ship hit by Ukrainian (or British?) anti-ship missiles as the Ukraine is claiming? We will have to wait for further reports to know that.

Posted by b on April 18, 2022 at 17:28 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Roger and karlof1:

I saw a program about climate change/global warming in the far northern hemisphere on Vice the other day when I was at the gym. They spent a good amount of time in a remote (in the western mind) part of Russia talking to people. Most of them seemed to be under the same delusion that others are about Canada becoming the world's granary. The majority of those interviewed welcome (and in some cases actively working toward) more warming as though it will similarly transform their part of Russia into something along the same lines. No plans discussed for what to do about sunlight.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 21:29 utc | 101

My heart is with Gonzalo and his family. I hope he gets out of that alive and he can recover.

It's unbelievable how quickly (one decade at most according to people born and raised in the Donbas) and thoroughly the Russian hating Nazi agenda has infiltrated the Ukrainian institutions. However, turning the head toward the West, I can'help but see a similar pattern developing here with neo-liberal and neocon ideologies also sweeping our own institutions. And with a similar degree of hate against everything Russian.

Posted by: Richard L | Apr 18 2022 21:31 utc | 102

bevin #14

The case can be made, indeed it is fairly obvious, that Russia is protecting the interests of is enemies, at the expense of its people. Which was the course that the Tsar and his Orthodox backers pursued in the half century before 1917.

Yep, sure looks like it.

The Communist Party seems to articulate a clear analysis.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 18 2022 21:32 utc | 103

disconnected to reality, that's what this wanabe blog is... and all you 300 agreeing dead 12 raped girls justified with sun-studies are just as pathetic as the current russian unicorn y'all keep inflating, just pathetic, but animals gotta' eat too...

Posted by: sandel | Apr 18 2022 21:32 utc | 104

@Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 21:26 utc | 98

When your enemy is happily destroying himself why get too involved? An invasion of Taiwan may actually help galvanize the West and give the elites the cover to instigate a full war economy and bury all their sins. By this winter Europe will be economically devastated and open to much political change from below, while the Dem majorities will be gone and political civil war possibly in full force. Russia will have also taken the whole Ukraine and shown to the whole world what a paper tiger NATO is against a major power, while destroying the Western narrative.

Taiwan should only be invaded if it makes moves toward formal recognition of its independence, creating a direct provocation which China can say it was acting against. Hopefully, Taiwan's elites (or at least their population) will learn from what happened to Ukraine. Russia had to act as it was faced with an existential threat, China is better off waiting and preparing while Europe and the US decay.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:34 utc | 105

Funny enough, I am on my phone now and I have the ability to zoom.

The long lines going ne to sw are tree shadows. It is close to sunrise/sunset in that picture. Not sure where north is, but there are clear lines from the top right to the bottom left.

Still unable to grasp the scale.

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 21:35 utc | 106

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:14 utc | 92

She’s actually proud of what she does… like some trophy hunter who shoots lions and elephants with a high-powered rifle and a team of trackers.

If the worst is true about what happened to GL, one can only hope she will reap what she sows.

Posted by: Krypton | Apr 18 2022 21:38 utc | 107

@Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:22 utc | 96

then there is the much shorter daylight hours due to the Earths shape.

Although during summer, paradoxically, the sun is over the horizon almost the entire day.

Posted by: bjd | Apr 18 2022 21:45 utc | 108

the two-front war they claim to have been preparing for but which we all know they are completely unable to fight in the real world

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 21:26 utc | 98

"The Plan" -- such as it is -- is a flop: to bleed Russia for years in a quagmire until regime change, until we get another Yeltsin to bend the Russian knee in tribute. But this plan is based on a widespread delusion that Russia will have any difficulty eliminating the Ukrainian military. Do some of these imperial spinmeisters actually "eat their own dog-food"?

What are all these expensive arms supposed to do, without anyone trained how to use them? The west hasn't paid serious attention to producing useful military technologies -- this is the dirty secret behind the Pentagon's reluctance: Direct conflicts expose various arms systems, for which we've been ripped off to the tune of billions, as marketplace hype, battlefield crap. So the only "adults in the room" are the ones fully aware of our current hypersonic missile gap.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 18 2022 21:46 utc | 109

@Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:22 utc | 96

then there is the much shorter daylight hours due to the Earths shape.

. . . and oh yeah -- the seasons are a result of the tilt of Earth's axis of rotation of ~23.5 deg (obliquity of the ecliptc), and the orientation of said axis in space always staying the same throughout the year.

Posted by: bjd | Apr 18 2022 21:50 utc | 110

@Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 21:29 utc | 100

You got me! I should have really said the amount of the sun's energy, as the curvature of the Earth reduces the amount of radiation that gets to the surface the more North/South you go from the equator. I have been in 24 hour daylight on Somerset Island in the Arctic so I should have caught my error - it was still only about +7 degrees centigrade and windy as hell due to the lack of any trees. I also remember the very long days growing up in northern England.

With the sea ice gone in the north it may also be raining all the time, as the climate changes to a maritime one. Even worse for the permafrost, and the Greenland ice.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:50 utc | 111

Tom 101
Northern latitudes have long daylight during summer.

Posted by: Petev | Apr 18 2022 21:52 utc | 112

@Petev (112)

Exactly. And that is more or less the paradox.

Posted by: bjd | Apr 18 2022 21:55 utc | 113

@Petev, @bjd etc.

Its a weaker Sun relative to the lower latitudes because of the angle of the Sun to that point on the Earth. At the Earth's equator its much stronger, I got sunburnt in the Dominican Republic but not at Somerset Island (more wind burnt). I was in Iceland for a few weeks at the height of summer, the whole population seems to become mad partying alcoholics while they can enjoy the long summer days there.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 22:03 utc | 114

Stonebird #57

Meanwhile the dollar fights for it's life and the Pentagon spends vapor-paper...

Just an extra note; in a few decenies [decades?] Siberia will profit from global warming (whatever the source) to be one of the major agricultural regions of the world, and by reason of the same global warming, the US will become a dry, drought struck sandbox.

Well said Stonebird. That vapor-paper line is a doozie :))

There is a real chance that in the next few decades the USA will see the price of water equal to a that of gasoline. Perhaps they should adopt a one child policy to anticipate that outcome?/s

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 18 2022 22:05 utc | 115

@Roger (114)

You're saying in a convoluted way exactly what I pointed out. Believe me -- I know whereof I speak. The tilt of Earth's axis and its static position in space are the cause. Earth's equator isn't directly involved in this, in the sense that the equator in this discussion is not a special place where special circumstances apply.
Thank you.

Posted by: bjd | Apr 18 2022 22:09 utc | 116

If, as looks likely, Russia is going to be permanently isolated from the west, why are they allowing unfriendly countries to reduce their reliance on Russian gas and oil in an orderly fashion? I know it's a lot of money, but if these countries are looking to punish Russia, then Russia shouldn't be helping them out.
Russia should immediately stop selling gas and oil to unfriendly countries until all the sanctions are lifted, IMO.

Posted by: D J G | Apr 18 2022 22:10 utc | 117

On Gonzalo Lira

I will miss him and always recall that excellent vid on SYSTEM PIGS

Just as Allende, he took his stand and chose his time. He was not silent.

I trust his children have fled to safety well before this.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 18 2022 22:12 utc | 118

Posted by: Kouros | Apr 18 2022 17:55 utc | 8

Thank you. Commend your recall

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 18 2022 22:13 utc | 119

The strategy of Ukraine is to prevent the NATO officers among the Nazis in Mariupol getting captured by Russians and talking on Russian TV. Of course, that's not the strategy of Ukraine since it has no will of its own still, but the will of the US. Better get all the NATO personnel there incinerated than risking the chance of them talking on international TV.

Posted by: Dodrey Dougherton | Apr 18 2022 22:14 utc | 120

@Posted by: D J G | Apr 18 2022 22:10 utc | 117

Russia and China seem to be quite consciously letting the West down slowly, so as not to trigger any major existential crises for the Western elites that could rapidly escalate into something very dangerous. The US, UK and France all have nuclear arsenals and biological capabilities etc. and one should never underestimate a wounded desperate animal that sees its only way out as destroying you.

I don't know if Russia and China will be successful in their attempts to let the West fall slowly, but I hope for their success for all of our sakes.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 22:15 utc | 121

to uncle tungsten | Apr 18 2022 22:12 utc | 118

I agree with you, uncle T
makes me sad.

Hope we are wrong and he's alive and on the run, but I have my doubts

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 18 2022 22:24 utc | 122

btw, pretty up to date reports would indicate that the big Donbass operation has begun in earnest

the russians must feel that they have Mariupol well under control and have probably moved many of those ten thousand or more troops around, perhaps to the Donbass and the shoring up of Kherson


https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1516140804728840192
Entire front line positions of Ukrainian forces are reportedly being targeted by Russian forces. Areas include Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
2:45 PM · Apr 18, 2022


https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1516150727558770691
Strikes against Nikolayev, Kharkov & Gulaypole are being reported, as well as heavy shelling across the whole Donbass contact line.
3:24 PM · Apr 18, 2022

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 18 2022 22:30 utc | 123

D J G @117--

Actually, the result will be the opposite--The Outlaw US Empire will be isolated from most of the world until it markedly changes its ways. It doesn't look so at the moment, but Europe will eventually merge with Russia and Asia to become a genuine Eurasia as the reality of Geoeconomics will prove impossible to overcome, provided Russia doesn't alter the situation first. The only thing that delayed Europe's dependency on Russia and Asia was its colonialism, and that Age is long gone. The Neoliberal parasitism that replaced colonialism only serves to devour European nations, immiserate the majority and is clearly unsustainable. The current crisis is contrived by the Outlaw US Empire to make the EU its colony because its Neoliberals need additional victims to keep their Ponzi Scheme going--USG net worth is approaching negative $140 Trillion. So, Ukraine must be fought to the last Ukrainian to maximize its value as the Anti-Russia to keep Europe and Russia from their natural union.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 18 2022 22:31 utc | 124

"A new survey suggests almost one-third of Canadians aren't pulling in enough income to cover basic monthly expenses.

Thirty-one per cent of respondents to an Ipsos survey conducted for MNP said they don't earn enough to cover bills and debt payments"

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/31-of-canadians-don-t-earn-enough-to-pay-their-bills-survey-1.1753377

By all accounts, it seems this is just the very beginning of what's to come. ie Mighty Joe announced the largest draw down on the US strategic oil reserves in history, and now, a few days later it hardly moved the needle.

Read similar news about the UK recently which said personal debt levels are spiking at alarming rates and much of it is due to people using credit cards for monthly expenses and to make debt payments.

When elephants fight, there are 3 main fields where the grass is ripped from it's roots.

The economic field
The hearts and minds field
The battlefield

The old world aristocrats and the ignorant American PNACer's talk democracy, all day long. I don't think the people of Ukraine were offered a democratic voice. That's a big part of the hearts and minds field imho. They were just bulldozed by the usual suspects.

Meanwhile the A List of American Billionaires have made out like Bandits since the US Banker caused economic meltdown in 2008. Recently saw the figures of the wealth gains of Musk, Bezos, Gates, Buffet and more since the Great Plundering, and it's absolutely staggering.

Meanwhile, 31% of 'hard working Canadians' can't pay their bills. That hard working Canadians thing is a favorite slogan with Canadian politicians btw. Oh how they love to spout that bit of rhetoric, while enjoying nice salaries, excellent benefits and thoughts of riches in the political afterlife. Where the bulk of their rewards are delivered by those they served. Call me a cynic if you like, I won't argue.

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 18 2022 22:57 utc | 125

Roger@118

That is my take on the current situation.

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 23:03 utc | 126

From "Mad Max - Beyond Thunderdome"...

Max:
So what's the plan?

Pig Killer:
Plan? There ain't no plan!

RSH

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 18 2022 23:09 utc | 127

Alastair Crooke and I see things the same as his newest essay shows:

There are serious fault-lines radiating out from this EU-U.S. attempt to reassert its’ ‘liberalism’ – one which insists it will tolerate no ‘otherness.’ On issues such as the agenda of a scientific-technological élite and on ‘winning’ in Ukraine, there can be no other perspective. We are at war.

So what will happen? The most likely outcome is Russia’s economy will not collapse (even were the EU to go the whole hog on energy and ‘everything’ else). China will stand with Russia, and China is the ‘global economy’. It cannot be sanctioned into capitulation.

Checkmate? Well, what might the West’s Plan III be? The war frenzy; the visceral hatred; the language which seems designed to exclude a ‘coming to political terms’ with Putin, or the Moscow leadership is still there, and the Neo-cons are smelling opportunity:...

But the Pentagon does not buy it [Neocon argument to ignore possible nuclear war]. They know what nuclear war implies. So the bottom line is that sanctions will hurt, but not collapse the Russian economy; the real war (and not the PSYOPS war of Russian military incompetence and failure) will be won by Russia (with any EU & U.S. military supplies of large equipment to Ukraine being vaporised as they cross the border); and the West will experience what it fears most: Humiliation in its attempt to reaffirm the liberal rules-based order.

Europe fears that without a resounding reaffirmation, it will see fractures appearing across the globe. But those fractures are already present: Trita Parsi writes that “non-Western countries tend to see Russia’s war very, very differently”:

“Western demands that they make costly sacrifices by cutting off economic ties with Russia to uphold a “rules-based order” have begotten an allergic reaction. That order hasn’t been rules-based; instead, it has allowed the U.S. to violate international law with impunity. The West’s messaging on Ukraine has taken its tone-deafness to a whole new level, and it is unlikely to win over the support of countries that have often experienced the worse sides of the international order”....

The most salient feature of last week’s first-round of the French Presidential election was that even should Macron win on 24 April (and the Establishment and its media will do anything to ensure his win), it will be Pyrrhic. A majority of French voters voted on 13 April against a system of inter-locking interests between the state and the corporate sphere.

French voters perceive themselves to be on a runaway train of higher inflation, declining living standards, more supra-national regulation, more NATO, more EU, and more American diktats.

Now, they are being told that soaring food, heating and fuel prices is the price worth paying to cripple Russia and China and ‘preserve the moral fabric of the liberal order’.

NATO technocrats on both sides of the pond are tearing their hair out as nothing goes as presumed. After all, Europe's hoi polloi has no issues with Russia--Russia's their friend with low cost energy that keeps them employed and could also enhance their diets if allowed. Rather, Euroelites are their bane and the Yellow Vests begin to go Eurowide. And none of Europe's MSM can be trusted with any event.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 18 2022 23:10 utc | 128

I'm prepared to accept that the Moskva picture shown is quite probably a legitimate picture of the ship.

My problem earlier was that I could not see the front four launchers on the side of the bow. Even peering closely, one can see what are faint outlines of those launchers, but they could have been just drifting smoke. On reflection and as a result of analysis by NightVision on The Saker site, it seems to me that other elements indicate the picture is genuine.

Oh, well, I acknowledge when I'm wrong. Of course, until that picture is confirmed by the Russians, it could still be someone's Photoshop effort to show the damage without it being an accurate rendition. But it's all we have for now.

I commend you to NightVision's analysis of the picture. He makes an excellent case that there is no evidence of a missile strike from that picture. This supports the Russian fire explanation.

Martyanov said this about the cause of the sinking today:

One of such stories (I cannot confirm its veracity) is that Moskva actually fought a serious Air Defence battle against waves of attacks and that eventually the AD was breached. I don't know. Possible? Certainly possible, and the presence of the US air assets in the area, including P-8 Poseidon and Global Hawk, certainly gives a hint, but, as I say, until Russia's MoD issues the report on this event it all remains primarily speculations and rumors. They will continue to circulate, of course. If NATO (namely US and UK) were, indeed, involved in some way in sinking of Moskva, expect a real response from Russia. Where and how, we can only speculate, but there will be a response.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 18 2022 23:19 utc | 129

Posted by: sandel | Apr 18 2022 21:32 utc | 104

I'm sorry, were you trying to say something?

Posted by: Lemming | Apr 18 2022 23:24 utc | 130

For those of you discussing the potential benefits of global warming to high latitude areas of the planet I strongly suggest you put some time into considering the 'global warming denier' argument (aka C02 is a benign inert gas and the sun is actually responsible for climate).

I mean come on, most of you fully understand the line of b/s we've been fed on Covid and Ukraine (and everything else) so why don't you question the climate change narrative ? Because the 'science is settled ?'

The actual issue at hand is we are entering a multi-decade period of reduced solar output, shorter growing seasons and hence crop scarcity. This will only double down on the current state of self inflicted food scarcity and inflation.

Check out the charts on the right hand side of Cap Alan's electroverse. Most if not all from independent raw data sources.

https://electroverse.net/

Yep no falsehoods in climate agenda driven 'science' either...
https://polarbearscience.com/2022/01/20/attenborough-fibbed-about-hundreds-of-dead-walrus-because-he-wanted-what-the-wef-wants/

Time is the fairest and toughest judge - Edgar Quinet

LC2021

Posted by: LC2021 | Apr 18 2022 23:31 utc | 131

@ bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14 RE:

"Nobody would suggest that Putin is a Fifth Columnist. But there is no doubt that it would be hard to contradict the theory that, if a Fifth Columnist were deliberately setting out to sabotage the economy, in the interests of the oligarchs, the current measures-including the Central Bank's policy and the refusal to nationalise the property of those engaged in economic warfare against Russia-would be retained."

When you are facing a perceived existential threat, what is money? Those who own assets in Russia that might be seized are currently likely to be on the side of restraint. Countries that are still using Russian gas are less likely to hasten a war and see it switched off. Those factors are likely to extend the time available before open warfare with NATO commences.

In short I am saying it buys them some time. What is money? they won't starve, they won't run out of fuel or other raw materials. No sane person would want to introduce nuclear weapons into the conflict but the Russians can't face the whole of NATO without them because of sheer weight of numbers. If they have enough time the Russians can probably form a defensible front.

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 18 2022 23:36 utc | 132

David F@10 - "That picture of the bombed out area is fascinating. I am not able to get an idea of how big any of the objects I can see are, so I am not really able to fully comprehend what I am looking at."

Higher resolution (4096 x 4096) picture from this Twitter post. Your browser should allow you to zoom in.

Look to the top left of the picture and you'll be able to make out an unused railway track. Ukrainian (Russian) gauge is just over 1.5m between the rails. There is a network of trenches with only the largest ones obvious. White 'litter' are plastic fabric sandbags. If this had two or three dozen defenders with machine guns, mortars and anti-tank rockets, then it would have been difficult to approach across what looks like fairly flat farmland in the area. This was purportedly "a Ukrainian outpost near Novotoshkivske". Zoom out in Google maps and you can see the relative flatness of the terrain.

Craters look round (medium mortar), not eye-shaped (122mm Grad or 240mm Uragan rocket). Medium infantry/airborne 82mm mortar would be my guess based on the dispersion. Otherwise, maybe 120mm heavy mortars, but craters seem too small. Artillery? That would be a smallish crater for a 122mm howitzer, but Russia does not field anything in the ~100mm range. The area is much too small and craters too large to indicate anything like a missile-delivered or air-dropped cluster bomb, IMHO.


Posted by: PavewayIV | Apr 18 2022 23:39 utc | 133

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 18 2022 21:09 utc | 89

Russia may well do something like it did at Deir Ezzor. Just allow the US to feed nazi's into a killing field or two.

Yup!

Posted by: Seer | Apr 18 2022 23:39 utc | 134

-----"The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?"

------To loot as much money from the US, UK and EU as possible then run for the hills?

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Apr 18 2022 18:27 utc | 25

I guess elensky can't opt to conquer Putin's apartment in Tel Aviv?

That'll probably give him enough satisfaction - no pun intended.

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 18 2022 23:43 utc | 135

@ Aleph_Null #77:

"This might become the Ukraine/Taiwan thread before long. Scott Ritter thinks the odds of that are pretty good."

This is continuation of covid. We are at war, albeit mainly waged asymmetrically. First the USG was hi-jacked. Then we had covid obedience training and mass immune-system weakening. Now there is a geopolitical adjustment as the West is being isolated from the rest of the world having already had its manufacturing capabilities hollowed out and now being dependent on financial wizardry to keep going. USD hegemony has taken a huge hit from which will never recover so that financial foundation is a cooked goose soon to be burning into a crisp turning into smoke and ashes.

At some point we will transition from democracies and nation states into something different featuring stronger authoritarian States, digital currencies and ID's, technocracy based ruling class and so forth.

We are only about two years into this and probably it will take another 3-5.

As to global warming, it might happen at some point but meanwhile two things to consider:
1) we are entering a serious cooling cycle like Daunton and Maunder minimums. Unlikely any warming will happen for another 2-3 decades.
2) Consider Hapgood's old axis tilt theory (tentatively endorsed by Einstein): he wasn't sure about the timing but guestimated every 60,000 years or so there is a magnetic flip meaning the planet swaps North and South in a matter of hours perhaps basically plowing most of the surface crust under as things shift and buckle. Think scrambled eggs. Lava squeezed out from below forms mountain ranges along with things getting squished together as the wider terrains around equator slide towards small square mile areas nearer the poles whilst stuff from the poles going to larger area equator get stretched into plains. Put simply: long before global warming gets us chances are most everything on the surface is going to get plowed under as seems to have happened many times before. Or put another way: we know so little about the past that worrying about the future is foolish.

Meanwhile: one year at a time, eh?!

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 18 2022 23:43 utc | 136

Is there not a single person on this site who will answer my questions?

Suddenly this site is full of Nancy's?

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 23:46 utc | 137

"I mean come on, most of you fully understand the line of b/s we've been fed on Covid and Ukraine (and everything else) so why don't you question the climate change narrative ? Because the 'science is settled ?'"

Posted by: LC2021 | Apr 18 2022 23:31 utc | 130

The topic is "The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?"

But to somewhat accommodate your diversion, let me say I've lived long enough to state climate change is absolutely a reality. You can argue the cause with this theory or that theory based on equally unproven science, but what I know for sure, without doubt is that climate change is real and I've experienced first hand all the evidence I need to experience, in the short span of my 70 odd years, which in relation to the history of the world is a blip. So it's condensed and thus all the more relative as I see it.

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 18 2022 23:49 utc | 138

---I'd prefer they not be given any publicity at all, not even news of their whereabouts, until their war crimes trials.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2022 21:09 utc | 88

nah - let them show off how pathetic they are, so no one get confused.

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 18 2022 23:52 utc | 139

PavewY crossing of posts. Thanks. Sincerely surprised by the non-interest in this.

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 23:52 utc | 140

@flatulence in Kiev #3

We are lately in thrall to the melodrama in Ukraine, largely engineered by figures and forces in our own government and for their own ends, which look suspiciously at odds with the nation’s actual interests (the nation being us, its people). Perhaps this illustrates the widening gulf between the slouching beast government has become and the people trying to operate their lives and destinies under it. No food for you, no fertilizers for future food for you, no spare parts for you, no free speech for you, no social or economic role for you, no health for you, and (watch it, now!) soon no life for you.

Collectively going crazy has been a luxury we can’t afford anymore. You fell for RussiaGate and it kept you in thrall for years. You fell for the Adam Schiff orchestrated Ukraine phone call impeachment gambit. You fell for the Covid scare and the dangerously defective vaccines forced on you. You fell for the fraud-drenched election of the empty vessel known as “Joe Biden.” Don’t fall for the invitation to World War Three.

Russia means business in its historic sphere of influence. It’s none of our business, and we’re only making it worse for the Ukrainian people by pretending it’s our business with the false promise of our support. The only thing that matters to us about Ukraine just now is that we’re standing in the way of useful negotiations to end the conflict there and egging on various other countries in Europe to aggravate the situation.

It’s been a fine distraction from everything else that is slipping away in our the west, including the loss of liberty, the right to a livelihood, the need for legitimate meaning, the value of our money, our respect for the law, the ability to speak our minds, and our duties and obligations to each other. Our governments are not interested in supporting any of that, and we might doubt that it even could anymore if it wanted to. It only wants to keep you in a state of abject thrall while it fritters away our posterity.

Posted by: Howdy.MiloMilo | Apr 18 2022 23:55 utc | 141

1) we are entering a serious cooling cycle like Daunton and Maunder minimums. Unlikely any warming will happen for another 2-3 decades.

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 18 2022 23:43 utc | 135

Ahh, no. Sunspot activity has picked up dramatically since the lows of 2020.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Apr 18 2022 23:56 utc | 142

bevin #14

The case can be made, indeed it is fairly obvious, that Russia is protecting the interests of is enemies, at the expense of its people. Which was the course that the Tsar and his Orthodox backers pursued in the half century before 1917.
Yep, sure looks like it.

The Communist Party seems to articulate a clear analysis.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 18 2022 21:32 utc | 103

Uncle T what do you mean by this comment? I don't see how the Russian people are not being protected. it seems the opposite to me, what am I missing?

Posted by: K | Apr 18 2022 23:56 utc | 143

Posted by: circumspect | Apr 18 2022 18:33 utc | 28

US America has been at war with communist ideology wherever it is cultivated since WWI. "Fall of the USSR" merely signified Reagan-Democrats' "Cold War" propaganda victory within EU6 and, I'll grant this much, excelerate US rentiers' strategy to systematically subjugate freshly minted independent states along Europe's periphery to "perpetual bonds" (to borrow a phrase coined by Janis "the valve" Varoufais). New world order, same as the old world order of top-down supply chain management and yield-chasing, thinly veiled with "national security" concerns.

Hear Jake Sullivan, Biden's NS "advisor," comfort US American oligarchs convened by the The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. with his latest PUTIN WAR debrief. Note that his host, David Rubenstein at the The Economic Club of Washington, D.C.on Thursday, April 14, 2022. Rubenstein is co-founder and co-executive chairman of The Carlyle Group and president of The Club. He sketches expected ROI in Ukraine's standing army, hired by NATO to wind down all capital formation in-country in order to creat NEW! IMF and PE project financing (d/b/a "reparations" for UA victory which has not occured). This excerpt, beginning @12:25, boldly summarizes the M.O. of military adventures, time out of mind.

DAVID RUBENSTEIN: Every war comes to an end or, at least, has an armistice at some point, it seems. So at some point, this presumably will end. I don't know when that will be. Nobody knows, but when that happens, do you think that sanctions will automatically be lifted as a result of negotiations or it's not a foregone conclusion that the sanctions will be lifted?

SULLIVAN: It's not a foregone conclusion. A lot of that depends on what the shape and scope of that diplomatic agreement is, and a lot of that depends on what the Ukrainians, in consultation with us and the Europeans, come to agree to. We're not going to do a deal over the head of the Ukrainians, where give [up] a bunch of sanctions relating to Russia. But if some measure of sanctions really were built into some credible, diplomatic solution led by the Ukrainians, that's something that we would happily discuss with them.

RUBENSTEIN:[13:13] What about the ["Russian"] oligarchs and their yachts, their other possessions? Are you likely to give them back as part of a deal? Or is that off the table? And won't they be available for reparations of some type, so you [sic] can sell those yachts?

SULLIVAN: [chuckles] I was, I will say one thing, I was not deep on before taking this job was laws on asset seizure and forfeiture. I have come to learn quite a bit about it. There are authorities we have, and there are further authorities we could develop, and that's something we are actively looking at. I don't want to get ahead of any announcement. The president is actively looking at how we can deal with the fact that, as we seize these [personal and public] assets, our goal is not to give them back. Our goal is to put them to a better use than that, but I'll be careful in what I say today, because there's an ongoing kind of policy process around how we end up dealing with that question. But rest assured that the goal is not just to sit on them for a while, then pass them all back.



Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 18 2022 23:59 utc | 144

---I saw a program about climate change/global warming in the far northern hemisphere on Vice the other day when I was at the gym. They spent a good amount of time in a remote (in the western mind) part of Russia talking to people. Most of them seemed to be under the same delusion that others are about Canada becoming the world's granary. The majority of those interviewed welcome (and in some cases actively working toward) more warming as though it will similarly transform their part of Russia into something along the same lines. No plans discussed for what to do about sunlight.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 21:29 utc | 101


Oh please! Sunlight isn't an issue- temperature is! https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/midnight-sun.html

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 19 2022 0:03 utc | 145

@Scorpion

The Earth's magnetic field is weak. It is strengthened by being aligned (to some extent) with the rotation axis. The reversals occur randomly. Although the period between two different polarities could be as small as 60000 years, it is typically much longer. Also, the time to reverse is typically on the order of hundreds of years. During the reversal the field is very weak.

Posted by: Platero | Apr 19 2022 0:04 utc | 146

Gonzalo might well be a Russian PR person.I think it's possible that all along he has had the protection of Russian bodyguards.

What sane person would stay in the city that was next in line for attack from both sides without a plan? He does not appear to be a stupid man so i am expecting that he escaped with help.

His cell phone would have been traceable the whole time so clearly he felt (rightly or wrongly) he was not in real danger. But I think there is much more to his story that meets the eye.
We may never know.

Posted by: K | Apr 19 2022 0:07 utc | 147

The president is actively looking at how we can deal with the fact that, as we seize these [personal and public] assets, our goal is not to give them back. Our goal is to put them to a better use than that, but I'll be careful in what I say today, because there's an ongoing kind of policy process around how we end up dealing with that question. But rest assured that the goal is not just to sit on them for a while, then pass them all back.

Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 18 2022 23:59 utc | 142

Of course he has to say that, but eventually Iran got their stolen reserves back. Part of the game plan this year was to incentivize the Russian oligarchs to initiate regime change in Russia, which has not yet materialized. However these oligarchs also have access to very expensive security and private enforcement contractors. It would be wonderful if they used those resources against the real cause of their recent misfortunes inside the Beltway.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Apr 19 2022 0:09 utc | 148

Is there not a single person on this site who will answer my questions?

Suddenly this site is full of Nancy's?

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 23:46 utc | 136

What are the questions? A reference would have been helpful. btw, what's a Nancy?

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 19 2022 0:10 utc | 149

lol

Posted by: ptb | Apr 19 2022 0:11 utc | 150

David F #82

"I will be shocked if someone here is unable to give an authoritative answer."

My speculation is that the trench is two meters wide at the top. The larger craters are minimum six to ten meters. The structure maybe six meters by twelve meters.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 19 2022 0:14 utc | 151

What are the questions? A reference would have been helpful. btw, what's a Nancy?

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 19 2022 0:10 utc | 147

I believe he was looking for someone to determine the size of the shell holes in the aerial photographs. I took a rudimentary aerial photo interpretation course 50 years ago, but fail to see any relevance of the question to anything.

A "Nancy" is a Karen's mother or grandmother.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Apr 19 2022 0:17 utc | 152

Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 18 2022 23:59 utc | 142

AHAR Maties! A Pirate never willingly gives up their plunder. Not to my knowledge anyway.

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 19 2022 0:18 utc | 153

also a derogatory term of British origin

Posted by: ptb | Apr 19 2022 0:18 utc | 154

the science is not equally unproven. the science is all on one side. yes global warming is occurring, and yes, people are causing it. in other news, Gonzalo Lira is not a Russian propaganda construct, and that photo represents a rather thoroughly shelled former Ukrainian position, not "tree shadows".

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 19 2022 0:18 utc | 155

David F | Apr 18 2022 23:46 utc | 136

Obviously a feeble attempt at stirring up dissent between posters as to their degree of Nancyness and justification for it as opposed the subject at hand which is "The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?"

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Apr 19 2022 0:23 utc | 156

----@Petev, @bjd etc.

Its a weaker Sun relative to the lower latitudes because of the angle of the Sun to that point on the Earth. At the Earth's equator its much stronger, I got sunburnt in the Dominican Republic but not at Somerset Island (more wind burnt). I was in Iceland for a few weeks at the height of summer, the whole population seems to become mad partying alcoholics while they can enjoy the long summer days there.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 22:03 utc | 114

You use your own experience- I rely on evindence.

The evidence from past cycles of warming and cooling. The little ice-age brought with it famines, pestilence and war. And we haven't yet fully recovered.

Not to mention how we used to live during the bronze-age.

Posted by: Anne B | Apr 19 2022 0:27 utc | 157

screw this, I need a drink

Posted by: ptb | Apr 19 2022 0:29 utc | 158

sln2002 @142--

Thanks for that tid-bit! IMO, there won't be any diplomatic settlement with Ukraine. The current government will be disbanded by the victors and a new one elected by the citizenry of whatever remains of Ukraine. But IMO, that's something to be determined this Fall. Attacking the oligarchs shows the 100% idiocy of the Outlaw US Empire plan since they were allied with them since they are mostly expats and persona non grata in Russia. You'd think those yachts were owned by Russia, not its traitors!

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 19 2022 0:31 utc | 159

ptb @156--

Agreed!

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 19 2022 0:33 utc | 160

@ platero #144
Well, you might be right but that's a different theory. Axis wobble / tilt posits a magnetic pole flip which is extremely fast. That's why the plowing of the crust. The iron core flips quickly and the thousands of times larger planetary surface takes more time because it basically floats above the lower levels lagging the flip in the magnetic core.

Not interested in arguing. It's one theory. But when I read the book (written in 1958?) it was fairly persuasive. In any case, things like jungle fauna found deep under polar ice regions, mammoths frozen in herds with undigested food in stomachs, fish fossilized with other fish in between their jaws, trees hanging vertically penetrating through multiple layers of sedimentary rock which geologists (erroneously) state take millions of years to form etc etc indicate that for whatever reason sudden massive changes happen.

To answer the other guy's plea re global warming: it's top to bottom BS as only a little research plus common sense reveals.

One point about 'the settled science:' the entire field and controversy reveals the glaring limitations including fallacies in the 'scientific method' both generally but also especially when involved with anything even slightly political let one the nature and future of the planet!

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 19 2022 0:42 utc | 161

@ platero #144
Well, you might be right but that's a different theory. Axis wobble / tilt posits a magnetic pole flip which is extremely fast. That's why the plowing of the crust. The iron core flips quickly and the thousands of times larger planetary surface takes more time because it basically floats above the lower levels lagging the flip in the magnetic core.

Not interested in arguing. It's one theory. But when I read the book (written in 1958?) it was fairly persuasive. In any case, things like jungle fauna found deep under polar ice regions, mammoths frozen in herds with undigested food in stomachs, fish fossilized with other fish in between their jaws, trees hanging vertically penetrating through multiple layers of sedimentary rock which geologists (erroneously) state take millions of years to form etc etc indicate that for whatever reason sudden massive changes happen.

To answer the other guy's plea re global warming: it's top to bottom BS as only a little research plus common sense reveals.

One point about 'the settled science:' the entire field and controversy reveals the glaring limitations including fallacies in the 'scientific method' both generally but also especially when involved with anything even slightly political let one the nature and future of the planet!

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 19 2022 0:42 utc | 162

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Apr 19 2022 0:17 utc | 150

Thanks for the explanation. I couldn't have added anything to his question about shell holes.

I only know about the first rule of holes, which is something the un elected EU chiefs should be apprised of imo.

When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Simple common sense I would think, but then again I'm not an Aristocrat or married to one of those pompous asses. Nor would I wish to be, a matter of principle. I think what differentiates commoners like me from Aristocrats, is commoners are more likely to have principles. In the world of Aristocrats, everything is negotiable, principles are just another commodity.

Posted by: bubbles | Apr 19 2022 0:45 utc | 163

#144
Well, you might be right but that's a different theory. Axis wobble / tilt posits a magnetic pole flip which is extremely fast. That's why the plowing of the crust. The iron core flips quickly and the thousands of times larger planetary surface takes more time because it basically floats above the lower levels lagging the flip in the magnetic core.

Not interested in arguing. It's one theory. But when I read the book (written in 1958?) it was fairly persuasive. In any case, things like jungle fauna found deep under polar ice regions, mammoths frozen in herds with undigested food in stomachs, fish fossilized with other fish in between their jaws, trees hanging vertically penetrating through multiple layers of sedimentary rock which geologists (erroneously) state take millions of years to form etc etc indicate that for whatever reason sudden massive changes happen.

To answer the other guy's plea re global warming: it's top to bottom BS as only a little research plus common sense reveals.

One point about 'the settled science:' the entire field and controversy reveals the glaring limitations including fallacies in the 'scientific method' both generally but also especially when involved with anything even slightly political let one the nature and future of the planet!

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 19 2022 0:54 utc | 164

Haven’t posted here but once or twice. But I’m drinking today. Back to the subject at hand, was listening to one of my favorite radio stations today, which unfortunately runs AP Radio News at the top of every hour. Its a college station that plays jazz 24/7, so I sort of forgive them. Sort of.

Anyway, at 1300 CDT (GMT -6) AP ran with the story of another Ukie provocation, which I have not yet seen anywhere else, saying that they have found 900 bodies in a mass grave somewhere “east of Kyev. All with bullet wounds to the head.” Implied, of course, is another Russian war atrocity.

However, to borrow from Voltaire, this seems like an absurdity that may not incite a Western atrocious response. I think other outlets are reluctant to run this story because 900 bodies is an awfully big number, and must yield at some point to forensic analysis to be confirmed. Might be embarrassing to the wrong people.

Easier to shell an Orthodox Church on Easter Sunday. More plausible deniability.

Anybody else see this story? And I’m buying a round for the house! Here’s to MOA! Cheers

Posted by: Billy the Red | Apr 19 2022 0:55 utc | 165

Re. publicity for the mercs or POWs whatever they are I was waiting to see how the BBC would handle the story. Sean is funny and lovable and they managed to find a photo of young Aidan with his puppy.

Those familiar with BBC speak will be able to spot the innuendo and implication (duress, humane treatment, 'an unidentified man stands over him' etc.).

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61139735

Posted by: dh | Apr 19 2022 0:59 utc | 166

Damn,,, I pray that Gonzalo has (or had) the fortitude to face his captivity in the hands of these demons. The hardcore ukrops gloating on Telegram are a terrible omen.

Your name will be remembered, brother.
La revolución está contigo, compadre, y que los Dioses te bendigan.

Posted by: rrramirezzz | Apr 19 2022 1:08 utc | 167

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1516132874734481414
Denis Prokopenko (Commander of an Azov Regiment), saying there are women and children in Azovstal.
Video + Translation in the reply.

Posted by: Sundial | Apr 19 2022 1:09 utc | 168

Billy the Red | Apr 19 2022 0:55 utc | 162

At Irpin. That's the other place the Russians pulled back from a couple of weeks ago. Ukies would have had a good cleanup of anyone they accused of collaborating.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 19 2022 1:16 utc | 169

Seriously, talk about a bunch of bitches that dont know a god damned thing about anything.

Not a single "expert" on this site can give me any specific information about the scale of what that picture represents?

I do appreciate the couple of honest attempts at an explanation.

But, really the rest of you dumb-fucks want to run with nonsense?

You'd rather talk about nancy and karen! You dumb fucks, nancy predates Karen by at least 5 decades, and it is related to pansies, which are a very delicate flower.

This place ain't what it used to be.

And like most people I am resistant to change, I want the bar to be what it used to be, a place where intelligent conversation took place, where an individual could expand his or her mind.

Not too hard to see why the old timers quit coming around. Who wants to deal with fools pretending to be wise?

Enjoy your success b! You've lost the thread of what made this special. Money will do that to a person.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2022 1:18 utc | 170

@Posted by: Anne B | Apr 19 2022 0:27 utc | 155

A while ago I decided not to engage with anthropogenic climate change deniers, I will continue with that policy. My life is better for it.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 19 2022 1:19 utc | 171

Billy,

Glad to hear from you. You have two things going for you in my opinion. The first is:

"Haven’t posted here but once or twice. But I’m drinking today." Good on you, you dont really hear a man's opinion unless he feels uninhibited.

The second is, a person who was near and dear to me was named Billy, so I will always have a soft spot for anyone named Billy, and I have yet to meet anyone called Billy who would be considered a bad person.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2022 1:29 utc | 172

@165 Sundial

So they took human shields in with them or is this a lie to save their necks? I mean why take women and children inside a place like that?

Posted by: Circe | Apr 19 2022 1:33 utc | 173

@David F, 167

Well, if you can't figure anything out yourself, why are we the dumb fcks?

Posted by: bottle | Apr 19 2022 1:33 utc | 174

I haven't read the daily beast article but this is Gonzalo Lira talking about it.
https://twitter.com/Based_ENG/status/1516204326506610700

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 19 2022 1:35 utc | 175

Unbelievable! Bevin at #14 makes a series of apposite comments about the current RF government's failure to adequately regulate a economy undergoing a mob of stress due to outside interventions, comments not directly from Bevin but from Yevgeny Ulyanov, the Karelian regional leader of Russia's communist party, still the largest opposition political organisation within Russia and a cluster of self described lefties, run to the defense of the neoliberal policies of the Russian government.

The current notion that the Russian government is beyond criticism is indefensible. The policies it has pursued hve deepened the gulf in wealth between Russian people and its elites, just the same as the policies of most other contemporary governments dotted about this old rock. When 'western' governments pull these nasty strokes many of those defending Russia's current administration are highly critical of those western governments. There is a word for this behaviour, begins with h and ends with a y.

It's not as if Ulyanov makes his statements without sacrifice as the link to the People's Dispatch makes clear, Ulyanov& the CP in general have been subjected to considerable legal and social harassment by Karelian & central government for necessary outspokenness.


"On February 26, the Communist Party of Russian Federation (KPRF) slammed the persecution of communist leader Yevgeny Ulyanov by the Karelian regional authorities. Ulyanov has been accused of organizing a gathering on February 23 at the center of Petrozavodsk near the Lenin monument, defying the ban imposed by the authorities.

Adhering to COVID-19 safety protocols, gatherings were organized across Russia on February 23 under the leadership of the KPRF and the Leninist Komsomol to commemorate the 103rd foundation anniversary of the Soviet Red Army. The day is also an official state holiday. Authorities have tried to ban the gatherings this year citing COVID-19 restrictions.

According to a RedLine TV report, authorities in Penza prosecuted an eighth-grader Komsomol member for reposting information about the rally on February 23. Similar moves of intimidation and persecution have been reported from across Russia as authorities tried to clamp down on the commemorations."

That tells us something important, the Russian Communist Party is yet to "bow to reality" as leaders of former leftist parties are wont to say as a rationalization for their own neolib not so lite political platforms.

It is possible to 100% support the fight by Russian people to prevent their nation from being absorbed into the empire without kissing greedy arseholes pink bits. Essential really, otherwise going by what has happened so often elsewhere in the last 40 years, the current mob in charge could acquiesce to whatever the empire demands as long as their elites are protected and there is a believable excuse to tell the masses.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Apr 19 2022 1:35 utc | 176

bottle | Apr 19 2022 1:33 utc | 171

That's about it. He probably asked the same about his acne as a teenager.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 19 2022 1:37 utc | 177

@168 Roger

Ditto.

On the other hand I try not disregard all the opinions of anthropogenic climate change deniers just because they are so wrong on that one, as I have in the past, especially in regards to other scientific fields.

Someone can mess up something scientifically simple like climate change and still have valid arguments on Covid or military strategy or whatever.

Men willingly believe what they wish to believe, and I have found this holds true for almost everyone. Every individual has a blind spot or two where their ideology or emotions or financial well-being trumps their reasoning.

That said, arguing with a denier is as frustrating and pointless as arguing with someone with Trump Derangement Syndrome and I don't need the stress.

Posted by: Haassaan | Apr 19 2022 1:41 utc | 178

Bottle, and Peter

Aren't you clever! Right through the heart! Apparently you are able to interpret the scale of said picture, but don't feel the need to expand on your interpretation.

Pardon me while I go lick my wounds.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2022 1:41 utc | 179

@David F, 167

David, this is your new friend Billy the Red, now posting formally as Billy the Texas Red (homage a Texas Cabernet):

Calm down!

Calmly yours,

Billy

Posted by: Billy the Texas Red | Apr 19 2022 1:50 utc | 180

Well, Billy, you're awfully assertive for a new poster. Cheers.

How many of you folks have seen The Shawshank Redemption? (Apologies to international folks)

The best scene in that movie was when the main character was in the wardens office after having played the ariah to an operah over the loudspeaker.

He said to the warden, "Why are you being so obtuse?"

The warden exploded at this and sent him to solitary confinement for a month or so.

Do you understand why the warden exploded?

Because he didn't understand the word obtuse! He knew at that moment, that he had just been insulted, that he was dealing with a person smarter than himself, but he didn't understand why that person was smarter than he was, and he fucking snapped.

What's my point? I am pretty confident that I don't have one.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2022 2:00 utc | 181

@Circe | Apr 19 2022 1:33 utc | 170

The only place in the city they could find Shelter in, was inside a military target area. That's what the Azov goons are trying to sell. They are without a doubt, hostages. I bet the vile MSM will run with that Azov story.

"They found their only available shelter next to the Ukrainian soldiers, who are still defending the city from russian invaders." -Azov Goon


Posted by: Sundial | Apr 19 2022 2:03 utc | 182

Posted by: Circe | Apr 19 2022 1:33 utc | 170

I posted a note by ColonelCassad about that in the previous thread. There are no civilians in Azovstahl Steel Plant. It's just another ploy.

RSH

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 19 2022 2:03 utc | 183

Good sitrep on the war in Ukraine,
https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-11

Posted by: Mark Gaughan | Apr 19 2022 2:05 utc | 184

Posted by: PavewayIV | Apr 18 2022 23:39 utc | 132

David F@10 - "That picture of the bombed out area is fascinating. I am not able to get an idea of how big any of the objects I can see are, so I am not really able to fully comprehend what I am looking at."

In the 4096 x 4096 pixel photo the 1520 mm gauge railway is about 23 pixels wide. The craters are approximately 46 pixels in diameter, meaning they are about 3 meters (10 feet) across.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 19 2022 2:05 utc | 185

K #141

Uncle T what do you mean by this comment? I don't see how the Russian people are not being protected. it seems the opposite to me, what am I missing?

Permitting oligarchs to loot your nation and the accumulated efforts of the working class and then 'park' their money offshore at some tax haven (read global capitalism vault) is a criminal neglect imo. Appointing a central bank manager to facilitate this plunder is being party to the looting. It seems to me that Russia under Putin has been way too permissive of top level looting as a national pastime.

Yes he does constrain some looters to some extent but there is an unmistakable whiff of plunder going on.

In this world of USA global parasitism and war mongering and two decades later of Russia being almost conquered by the parasite, I cannot accept this 'economic management' as being in the interest of the masses in Russia. Or anywhere else for that matter.

Nations should be self determining and that means a managed leaking of national productivity and capital formation. Collaborative investment between nations by those with vast accumulated wealth and under the direct transparent control of national governments is a preferable world in my opinion.

Tax havens are piracy of the people's productivity.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 19 2022 2:06 utc | 186

Petri Krohn #182

Thank you clarifying that. My humble assumptions were way out.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 19 2022 2:09 utc | 187

Re: the Moskva picture

The picture reveals that the radome seems to be missing a part along the part facing starboard rear. Has anyone else noticed it?

I fail to see any deformed metal product of an internal or external explosion. What is sure is the vessel is already listing dangerously. Capsizing should have occurred less that 15 minutes form the time of the picture.

Maybe it was hit below the water line. A mine, a torpedo?

Nothing kills more seamen than capsizing.

RIP-

Posted by: CarlD | Apr 19 2022 2:10 utc | 188

"Permitting oligarchs to loot your nation and the accumulated efforts of the working class and then 'park' their money offshore"

Well, it said a lot to me that at least one of the Russian billionaire's yacht displaced more weight than the Moskva and by a substantial amount.

They have looted their country, the sad part is that probably much of what they looted will be confiscated by the western governments and turned against those it was stolen from.

Posted by: Guest77 | Apr 19 2022 2:11 utc | 189

"Permitting oligarchs to loot your nation and the accumulated efforts of the working class and then 'park' their money offshore"

Well, it said a lot to me that at least one of the Russian billionaire's yachts displaced more than the Moskva and by a substantial amount.

Sadly it is a double whammy. That which was looted by the ruling class will be confiscated by western governments and turned against those it was stolen from in the first place.

Posted by: Guest77 | Apr 19 2022 2:13 utc | 190

k @ 127 said; "West will experience what it fears most: Humiliation in its attempt to reaffirm the liberal rules-based order."

NOTHING the West is saying, or doing, has anything to do with "liberal". Could we please call what the West does, and says by it's real name? "Corporate Fascism"....

Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 19 2022 2:16 utc | 191


Where is Gonzalo Lira? According to Jerry Goode ... Jerry is a South African living with Chinese wife and two kids in China)

Gonzalo Lira Might Survive! "It's Serious Now" 6,843 views, Apr 18, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg199Ny_sGw

Posted by: JC | Apr 19 2022 2:17 utc | 192

Petri@182

Thank you, that helps a lot.

So, if my math is correct, that picture is about 300 meters squared?

That is a lot of holes in such a small area!

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2022 2:21 utc | 193

@82 David F @82

In my experience a 120mm (heavy) mortar leaves a crater of around 10-12 feet in diameter and 3-4 feet deep. This will vary somewhat with the composition of the earth it is hitting and what kind of shells you are firing.

155mm howitzers maybe craters 12-15 feet across and 4-6 feet deep. I'd guess the craters in the picture are mostly 155mm howitzer craters as they seem to deep for mortar rounds.

Posted by: Haassaan | Apr 19 2022 2:22 utc | 194

Oops, I meant about 300 feet squared.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2022 2:25 utc | 195

Posted by: Sundial | Apr 19 2022 2:03 utc | 179

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Apr 19 2022 2:03 utc | 180

Since this is the first time we hear of women and children inside Azovstahl, I agree that this might be a ruse, to avoid getting vaporized. Besides, why were there no women or children in the attempted escapes?

CharlesLutherThanos is that a new handle? Are you RSH?

jim sciutto

Posted by: Circe | Apr 19 2022 2:27 utc | 196

The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?
. . .to ask for help from the Leader of the Free War--
from The WarZone

A host of military vehicles, manned and unmanned aircraft, munitions, soldier protective equipment, and much more is headed to Ukraine as part of the most recent $800 million security assistance package the U.S. government announced today.

The Pentagon released the following details of the aid package, which is set to start flowing to Ukraine soon as forces there prepare for renewed Russian offensives in the east and south:

18 155-mm towed howitzers with 40,000 artillery rounds;
10 AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radars;
two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars;
300 Switchblade kamikaze drones;
500 Javelin missiles and "thousands of other anti-armor systems";
200 M113 armored personnel carriers;
100 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (‘Humvee’);
11 Russian-built Mi-17 Hip helicopters;
unmanned coastal defense vessels;
chemical, biological, radiation, nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment;
30,000 sets of bulletproof vests and helmets;
over 2,000 optical and laser rangefinders;
C-4 plastic explosives and demolition equipment for mine clearing;
M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel mines. . .here


The plan is to train Ukies elsewhere on these weapons.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 19 2022 2:32 utc | 197

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 21:03 utc | 83

Same guy interviewed by Graham Phillips here: https://www.bitchute.com/video/t4hldKnlSVbB/

Posted by: farm ecologist | Apr 19 2022 2:33 utc | 198

@ my 193, here's the link.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 19 2022 2:34 utc | 199

Ooops! Sorry, the reason I wrote Jim Sciutto is because he was involved in an incident in Lviv today whereby a Ukie soldier pointed and cocked a rifle and screamed something at him.

Now those fake news bullshitters at CNN know that Ukies don't care who they shoot at. It was a great wake up call for that idiot Sciutto!

Posted by: Circe | Apr 19 2022 2:34 utc | 200

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