Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 18, 2022

The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?

Russian and Donbas forces have cleared the city of Mariupol except for the giant metallurgic complex of Azovstal which is held by some estimated 4,000 men, including many from the fascist Azov battalion.

On Sunday Russia opened corridors across the front line and asked for those forces to surrender. However the Zelensky government ordered them to stay and to continue to bind Russian forces which otherwise could be used elsewhere:

Russia had given the Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol until Sunday morning to lay down their weapons or be “eliminated.” On Sunday, the forces at the plant ignored the deadline, and Ukrainian officials vowed that they would not surrender. In response, the Russian assault intensified, with missiles and bombs hitting the city and new attacks occurring near the plant, according to the Ukrainian military.
...
Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that the struggle was not over for Mariupol, which for two months has tied up Russian troops and resources that are badly needed elsewhere.

The Azovstal complex is a 2 by 2 miles industrial area. It can be surrounded and controlled by a relatively small force. Those within the area no longer have heavy artillery ammunition and presumably little other supplies. The Russian forces can see and bomb anything that moves on the open ground and can otherwise sit back and wait their enemies out.

I do not believe that holding on to Azovstal will significantly delay the upcoming second phase of the Russian operation which will surround and destroy the Ukrainian army on the Donbas front.

The Russian military has two huge advantage over the Ukrainian forces in the east. One is of course its air superiority. The other is the unimpeded supply line which allows it to get as much heavy artillery ammunition, fuel and food to its forces as it needs.

Without fuel the Ukrainian army can not move and without constant supply, especially of large amounts of artillery munitions, it can not counter Russian artillery which will be in heavy use against it.

This pictures of a former Ukrainian position show the devastating result of such a situation.


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Nearly all of the Ukrainian ammunition and fuel supplies have been bombed and destroyed. What is trickling in through its western borders has difficulties to reach the eastern front and is anyway not enough to supply an actively fighting and maneuvering army.

On April 16 Russia shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane that was bringing 'western' weapons to Odessa. Today it destroyed another ammunition depot near Lviv were 'western' weapons are crossing the border into Ukraine. Some bits of fuel allegedly still reach the Ukraine through trains from Moldova. But that is far from enough.

Here is a week old report on the fuel situation:

Since the beginning of the war, the number of gas stations in Ukraine has decreased three times, and private fuel consumption has decreased by about the same amount, said Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

“According to our estimates, a third of the total number of gas stations is operating, this is about 2.5 thousand stations, before the war there were 7.5 thousand. Of course, the main reason is the lack of fuel. Consumption has also decreased three times compared to the pre-war level,” he said at a closed briefing at the Media Center in Lviv on Monday.

At the same time, Kuyun noted that traders or network owners are forced to provide their most strategic and powerful facilities, located mainly in regional centers or on main routes, while peripheral stations are forced to stand idle, although there are also a lot of consumers there.

According to him, the shortage of fuel became especially aggravated after the shutdown of the Kremenchug Oil Refinery as a result of a missile attack by Russian invaders.
...
On April 2, the Russian invaders destroyed the infrastructure of the Kremenchug oil refinery with their shelling, and it stopped working.

The damage done daily to the Ukrainian military and military industry is huge. One can get a sense of it when one reads through the briefings of the Russian defense ministry. From today's morning brief (here in full as some have difficulties accessing the site):

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles destroyed 16 military assets of Ukrainian overnight.

Among them: 5 enemy command posts, 1 fuel storage facility, 3 ammunition depots, as well as military personnel and equipment concentrated in Barvenkovo, Gulyai Pole, Kamyshevakha, Zelenoe Pole, Velikomikhailovka and Nikolaev.

Operational-tactical aviation hit 108 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment.

In addition, 1 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down by an air-to-air missile near Buda.

Army aviation destroyed 8 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, as well as up to a company of enemy manpower near Pashkovo, Veseloe and Illichevka.

Missile troops struck with high-precision Iskander land-based missiles. 4 arms depots and Ukrainian military equipment were destroyed, as well as 3 areas enemy manpower concentration near Popasnaya, Yampol and Kramotorsk.

Russian artillery units hit 315 Ukrainian assets overnight.

18 command posts, 22 artillery batteries, 1 OSA-AKM anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 275 enemy strong points and areas of concentration of enemy manpower were hit.

Russian air defence means shot down 3 Ukrainian combat aircraft in the air: 2 MiG-29 fighters near Izyum and 1 Su-25 near Avdeevka.

11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down in the air near Klimovo, Nevelskoe, Novotroitskoe, Izyum, Panteleimonovka, Sladkovodnoe and Yasnoe. 10 large-calibre rockets fired by Ukrainian multiple rocket launchers at Chernobaevka were intercepted.

In total, 139 aircraft, 483 unmanned aerial vehicles, 250 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,326 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 254 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,004 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,184 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

This has now been going on daily for more than a month. While the precision of the above numbers is somewhat uncertain I do not think that they are exaggerated by much. Yesterday there was no particular heavy fighting and the equipment destroyed on that one day alone was already more than what the U.S. has in total promised to send.

That means that the military destruction and defeat of the Ukrainian forces in the country's east is all but assured.

What then is the strategy that government in Kiev and its overlords in Washington DC are following? Why has the Ukraine not given up? Why didn't it continue to negotiate with the Russian side?

Is their hope that their daily over the top 'Russia is losing' propaganda will create enough political momentum for a large scale NATO intervention?

That would end in a disaster for the NATO forces.

Russia is obviously prepared for it. It has so far held back large parts of its own forces. Russia has at least 12 tactical missile artillery brigades, each with 36 Iskander missile launchers and 144 fire ready missiles. Only three of the those brigades plus a third of two other ones have so far been committed:

Three brigades, or a total of 36 Iskander launchers (two missiles each plus two resupply missiles per launcher) were deployed to Belarus as part of the buildup to war in Ukraine. Two additional brigades (12 launchers) were also assigned to Russia's Southern Military District and moved forward in the area of Belgorod near the Russian border; and to the area of Krasnodar, south of Ukraine.

Most of the Russian airforce has likewise been held back.

On March 24 the Pentagon claimed that Russia was running out of precision munitions. However, if the Russian defense ministry report is correct, at least 16 precision air ground missiles and 7 Iskander were used just yesterday. To me that does not sound like 'limited supplies'.

Other issues:

Since Saturday Gonzalo Lira, who has been reported from Kharkov, is no longer reachable. He seems to have been captured or killed by the Ukrainian Gestapo-like SBU. Sadly I had expected that. Doing hours of Youtube live streams when your enemy controls the internet in your area is not very smart.

A picture of the damaged Russian cruiser Moscwa was published today.


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The Russian cruiser was damaged last week and sunk. The ship is listing and so it must have additional damage below its waterline. The picture shows fire midships on its port side where two of its close-in weapons systems and their ammunition storages are. The ships crane is deployed right above that area. The large anti-ship missiles towards the bow and the S-300 air defense launchers behind the deckhouse seem intact. The port side life rafts are no longer where they were and must have been launched. That means that a significant part of the crew likely got off the ship alive before it sank.

The picture does not tell us what has happened. Was this an accidental ammunition explosion as Russia had first claimed or was the ship hit by Ukrainian (or British?) anti-ship missiles as the Ukraine is claiming? We will have to wait for further reports to know that.

Posted by b on April 18, 2022 at 17:28 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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NEW:

Zelensky is nowhere near the fighting, he set these poor people up in Mariupol.

Residents fleeing Mariupol talk to independent Journalist right at border escape and they blame Ukraine not Russia.
VIDEO https://youtu.be/Z1E9n2Q5AWw

Posted by: Dean Oneil | Apr 18 2022 17:35 utc | 1

The Moscwa wasn't lost to a country with no Navy. It was lost to a country with a large Navy. This act makes this country a co-combatant. Cooler heads are not happy with this.

Posted by: Richard Whitney | Apr 18 2022 17:48 utc | 2

Lysias from the last Ukraine or open-thread pointed out that a LePen victory in France might mean a blocking of NATO's expansion into Finland/Sweden.

What kind of ballot-harvesting, electioneering-shenanigans should we expect from this event and then what kind of domestic disturbances would follow?

The Trump phenomenon continues sans-Trump.

Hegel's concept of the world-historical figure has endured as peak-globalism has given way to decentralized nationalism.

The runoff on April 24th is also Orthodox Easter.

Interesting times.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 18 2022 17:50 utc | 3

Tnere is not ukranian honour, only cowardice. They use people as human shields and then, as rats, escape underground.

Posted by: Miguel | Apr 18 2022 17:50 utc | 4

Mariupol witness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1E9n2Q5AWw&t=10

Posted by: Richard Whitney | Apr 18 2022 17:51 utc | 5

Clearly, this war has huge implications far beyond the Ukraine. It's a "pissing contest" between the U$A's corporate empire, and the country it really wants to subjugate, Russia.

Just another failed state (Ukraine), in the long list, caused by the U$A, and it's corporate empire, all for the purpose of "global market share", and it's application of "full spectrum dominance".

IMO, it's "do or die" for the Russians. Best fortune to them..

Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 18 2022 17:51 utc | 6

Posted by: Ghost of Kyiv | Apr 18 2022 17:37 utc | 3


Ukrainian courage and spirit is what is driving these brave men and women defending the historic city for weeks on end.

Where were these "brave men and women" when the Anglo-American elites were raping and pillaging their country with the the full encouragement of the Oligarchs and petty government officials ?

They were not brave when the rats were eating their children and you think they'll be brave when the bear is at the door?

Had they showed courage from the start there would have never been a "last stand at Mariupol"!


“The world will know that free men stood against a tyrant, that few stood against many, and before this battle was over, even a god-king can bleed.”

And then they will go back to Netflix and Chill with the Tinder date of the week, never to remember again.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 18 2022 17:53 utc | 7

To 3 Ghost of Kiev.

What you quote is from 300, which is fiction. What has been preserved though sounds something like this:

"Oh stranger, tell the Lacedaemonians that here we lie, obedient to their laws"

What is happening with Ukrainians at Azovstal is more akin to this:

After his son died during World War I, poet Rudyard Kipling was inspired to write:

"If any question why we died,
Tell them, because our fathers lied."

Perhaps the most infamous person to appropriate the epitaph was Hermann Göring. In the waning days of Stalingrad in 1942, he attempted to encourage his troops with thoughts of Leonidas at Thermopylae,

"If you come to Germany, tell them you have seen us fighting in Stalingrad, obedient to the law of honor and warfare."

Another modern appropriation comes from Australian poet A. D. Hope (d. 2000) whose 1971 poem “Inscription for War” came at the height of Vietnam. It strips the glory out of the epitaph entirely.

"Linger not, stranger; shed no tear;
Go back to those who sent us here.
We are the young they drafted out
To wars their folly brought about.
Go tell those old men, safe in bed,
We took their orders and are dead."

Posted by: Kouros | Apr 18 2022 17:55 utc | 8

Ghost of Kyiv still ghosting the comments. LOL

Regarding the Moskva and from a firefighting perspective, based only on available images. There are no visible deformations of the mostly steel hull. But there are telltale signs of a high temperature fire amidships. Discoloration around portholes and different color of metal to the rear indicate a fire sweeping backwards thru the ship. Looks like some kind of corridor had a "chimney effect" pulling the fire to the back of the ship. High temps on the edges, quickly cooling as the stream dissapares. Hard to say what the internal damage looks like. Being a warship and compartmenalized, I would expect internal bulkheads were closed, but overheated and the fire spread gradually. Would match with a multi-hour effort of the crew to bring the fire under control. Lots of accumulated heat.

Sorry if my explanation is not the clearest. English is my third language.

Posted by: nops | Apr 18 2022 17:55 utc | 9

That picture of the bombed out area is fascinating. I am not able to get an idea of how big any of the objects I can see are, so I am not really able to fully comprehend what I am looking at.

Can anyone provide a bigger picture that has a closer view?

Can anyone point out a few things in the picture and give me an idea of how large they are?

OT - I used to have this problem when I lived out west and climbed mountains frequently. Often I could see things in the distance, but was unable to tell what they were exactly. ie. They were obviously buildings of some sort, but was it a large farm, or a small town etc.

Thanks in advance.

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 17:58 utc | 10

Posted by: Ghost of Kyiv | Apr 18 2022 17:49 utc | 8


Russia has been utterly EXPOSED during this Special Military Debacle.

What has been exposed is the impotence of NATO, UK and Uncle Sugar.

But we knew that already from Georgia 2008 ...


Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 18 2022 17:58 utc | 11

Don't feed that troll. It is a few days that the Azov "heroes" have to "fight" without women and children as a cover. That is why they invent some allegedly sharing their bunkers. Not very likely though. Witness accounts document their "combat performance" murdering civilians, firing from houses with people driven into the basements. Nazi scum, these "heroes of Bandera Ukraine". Now they are sitting in their holes shitting their pants. Let us see how long.

Btw. Gonzalo Lira, in contrast, was a truly brave man albeit not extremely wise. Still hoping that he is alive and well.

Posted by: aquadraht | Apr 18 2022 18:03 utc | 12

And what military experts would those be Mr.Ghost of Kiev? If I recall, the battle for Fallujah, in which combined NATO forces tried to take a city from poorly armed and trained Iraqi militants, took around 2 months. I highly doubt anyone worth listening to has predicted that a city the size of Mariupol would be taken in a matter of days. Can you give me ANY examples of a modern military capturing a settlement the size of Mariupol within days? What a ridiculous assumption. And of course, because of this ridiculous assumption, you take the failure of the Russian army to reach your insane expectations as proof of the immense bravery of the neo-nazis and the immense incompetence of the Russian army. In reality the siege of Mariupol is relatively standard of modern Urban warfare, in fact, it’s going somewhat faster than usual, when compared with NATOs performance in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted by: GabrielV | Apr 18 2022 18:04 utc | 13

John Helmer posts an important piece at Dances with Bears today.
http://johnhelmer.net/naive-questions-about-russias-war-economy/#more-47916
He raises the question of the unaccountable failure of the Russian state to take firm measures to counteract the sanctions and punish those engaged in an open campaign to destroy the economy and to reduce the living standards-still much reduced by the ongoing larceny introduced in the 1990s.

"... According to Karelian Communist leader Yevgeny Ulyanov, “more than 5,500 sanctions have already been imposed on our country, these are the largest restrictions in history. Now the West is preparing new ones; there is no doubt they too will begin to operate. In fact, the policy of strangling Russia is being implemented, while they are driving Europe into crisis and declaring a trade war with China. All this takes place against the background of the special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.”

“We believe that it is possible to survive and move forward only with the help of a mobilization economy. Well, it is necessary to start with the nationalization of key industries and the banking system. But the first step is to turn the assets of foreign companies which have left Russia into state ownership….It is necessary to use public investments to launch stopped production, restore broken economic chains, including logistics, and fight unemployment and poverty. As before, we believe that it is necessary to establish a state monopoly on the production and sale of alcohol and tobacco.”

“A separate task is to change the taxation system. It is necessary to abolish the value added tax in the production sector and replace it with a turnover tax. At the same time, across the country, [we should] exempt the poor from income tax and increase the tax burden on the rich.”

“The result of these measures will be a doubling of the budget, which we propose to turn into a development budget. That is, we are gradually showing how to create a more effective socio-economic system of the country…It is important to ensure state control over exports and imports in order to develop production. The export of hydrocarbons should be combined with a reduction in prices for gas and petroleum products within the country. Accelerate the development of oil refining. We all understand that the current, constantly rising gasoline prices in Russia for consumers are abnormal for a country which is a world leader in oil production.....”

Duma deputy Mikhail Delyagin, a well-known economist adds
"... But the principle should be very simple – if a company wants to leave the country, its property should be confiscated at the moment when it declares its intention to leave the country. No questions asked. If you are participating in an economic war against us, you are not our partner. An economic war of annihilation is being waged against us. If you are playing on both sides, then you will be destroyed.”

“The state is the entity that determines the rules. With whom to negotiate? With someone who wants to destroy us? Decide – either you want to destroy us, or you cooperate with us. If you cooperate, we can agree on tax regimes, on the use of tax benefits, subsidies. But if you want to destroy us, then your property will be confiscated. And the maximum good that we can do for you is to let you out of the country as individuals. And we will have state property with the preservation of the entire management, which will not leave, with some bonuses because this management has unique competencies and skills.”

“From the point of view of business support, it is possible, of course, to go the Ukrainian way – that’s to say, roughly speaking, to change the board of directors. If someone is afraid of sudden movements, he can choose the Ukrainian way. But our economic impotence is reaching catastrophic proportions: the situation when the confiscation of all Russian property and all Russian legal entities is officially announced in Ukraine, Ukrainian oligarchs continue to earn money in our country. A child’s question arises – does the Russian state really exist or is it a mirage?”


Nobody would suggest that Putin is a Fifth Columnist. But there is no doubt that it would be hard to contradict the theory that, if a Fifth Columnist were deliberately setting out to sabotage the economy, in the interests of the oligarchs, the current measures-including the Central Bank's policy and the refusal to nationalise the property of those engaged in economic warfare against Russia-would be retained.
To those who argue that Putin is committed to the war is it necessary to say more than he and his allies have said on the subject, namely that Russia had no choice? The war was forced on it. No politician could have surrendered to the Empire without a fight, without being removed from office, with the approval of the populace.

The case can be made, indeed it is fairly obvious, that Russia is protecting the interests of is enemies, at the expense of its people. Which was the course that the Tsar and his Orthodox backers pursued in the half century before 1917.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14

Tried to check the Russian MoD, got a 403 forbidden response. ? ?

Posted by: dadooronron | Apr 18 2022 18:07 utc | 15

sorry to hear about Lira.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 18:08 utc | 16

4000 inutili idioti nascosti come ratti in bunker sotterranei dediti alla morte perché imbottiti di droghe non rappresentano più nessuno, e tantomeno interferiscono e interferiranno con il proseguo della denazificazione del ucraina
Basterà un piccolo contingente di cacciatori alla posta per fargli il pelo e contropelo qualora metteranno il capo fuori dalla tana

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Apr 18 2022 18:11 utc | 17

Piece in the Washington Post this weekend clarifies the "answer" to Russia's demand that a new security architecture be established for Europe: "U.S., Allies Plan For Long-Term Isolation of Russia"

"...the Biden administration and its European allies have begun planning for a far different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it as a matter of long-term strategy."

"The European Union has drawn up plans to cut its heavy dependency on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year, and end all fossil fuel imports from Russia before 2030...Allies have announced major defense budget increases stretching far into the future."

"...many Europeans feel their continent will be unstable and insecure so long as Putin is in the Kremlin. And if they are not yet willing to embrace an active effort to oust his regime, support is growing there, as well as in the United States, to permanently cut off his country."


Posted by: jayc | Apr 18 2022 18:13 utc | 18

@ David F

You can make out a trench and then a center structure for artillery cover. Venture a guess to say that trenches are usually a meter wide. Each of the impact craters are probably closer to two meters wide. Looks like a few shots impacted the trenches directly.

The important thing to realize is that clearing out these Ukrainian "ticks" is going to be a war of attrition.

As b notes, the supply line for RF is unimpeded, meaning that, there is no shortage of ammunition to bombard these positions and to soften them up in an effort to minimize casualties when troops advance upon them.

Think of the sound of constant bombardment, the earth shaking, and the dismembered corpse of a fellow fighter you were just talking to.

Wars of attrition have not become more deadly since Verdun, but they have become more accurate.

...

RF has barely released any video from drone monitoring or attacks. I would venture a guess and say that they do have footage and it is just as terrifying as the video released by Azerbaijan when they were smashing the Armenians with their drones.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 18 2022 18:16 utc | 19

Support to great Gonzalo Lira. He was in a very dangerous situation in Kharkov with these criminal nazis.

Posted by: Miguel | Apr 18 2022 18:18 utc | 20

That really sucks about Gonzalo Lira, but b is right. I had the same thoughts which I tried to banish to the back corner of my brain in hopes that they wouldn't come true. He was brave but dumb to remain and continue his streaming, especially in areas where the Ukra-Nazi Gestapo units are operating.

I will hold out hope that he's just in hiding or had his phone confiscated and is being held captive, but given the savage, fascist nature of Ukraine's remaining military/police I have precious little until/unless there is an update from him.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 18:20 utc | 21

So Zelensky is following the same strategy with respect to the Azoz forces in Mariupol that Hitler followed with the Sixth Army at Stalingrad. Fight to the end in order to tie up Russian troops. That did not work out too well in the long run for the Wehrmacht. Hard to see it working out any better now.

Posted by: Stephen | Apr 18 2022 18:21 utc | 22

It's not established if the vessel has been hit by anything yet, it might as well have been an accident on that part of the ship. That said a US drone was in the area outside Romania and could have been directing missiles possibly English ones.

If that is the case the English might get what they wished for in unexpected and unpleasant ways.

Posted by: mikhas | Apr 18 2022 18:26 utc | 23

Yes, as far as I can determine, the only strategy that Ukraine has is the destruction of Ukraine with the result of getting NATO involved by having it witnessing the horrors of war, or to get Russia to stop because it is rushing in and losing troops faster than what it can handle. In other words, "A Hope and a Prayer" strategy, which is a nice way to say no strategy at all. In Mariupol it is difficult to determine how much of the destruction is Russian vs Ukrainian. It's like Zelinsky et. al., want the destruction of the city.

The best thing you can say is the Ukrainian government is still hoping they can do some damage with the upcoming Phase 2 operation in the Donbass, or some outside event (economics/political?) makes Russia stop. If they loss in Phase 2, it is all over but the shouting.

As long as Russia can manage it's loses and continue to weaken Ukraine, it is all in Russia's favor.

Posted by: Douglas Houck | Apr 18 2022 18:26 utc | 24

"The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?"

To loot as much money from the US, UK and EU as possible then run for the hills?

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Apr 18 2022 18:27 utc | 25

It continues in attritional mode, unfortunately...

Professional component of VSU gets depleted over time, continually replaced with reserves/conscripts led by mercenaries, with the second wave of equipment. At the current rate of UA losses, it could go on for many months, although one thinks the intensity would eventually be reduced.

Next realistic chance to stop and negotiate, when DNR formation is cleared. UA casualties likely will be horriffic, but leadership in Lviv/Kiev may be willing to accept it. A lot probably depends on RF casualties at that point.

All kinds of wildcard outcomes are possible. UA strategy of deliberate provocative attacks to "generate outrage" or cause escalation which so far they have seen as to their benefit (or maybe simply to the benefit of certain sponsors). Eventually they may succeed in something really regrettable, and RF will run out of patience and start going after UA infrastructure like westward rail links, or utilities.

If DNR formation gets expelled with less than expected bloodshed, but negotiations still refused, then possible moves on Kharkiv and Odessa - both of which have potential for a larger version of Mariupol.

Also, in a few months, the world commodity situation will also start to have impacts that cannot be ignored. Really it should already be happening, but people are still denying what is coming because it's too scary. Then in the fall, all kinds of stupidity is possible because of US elections.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 18 2022 18:27 utc | 26

Zelensky look more stoned than ever. Cut the supply of coke and captagon and the war will end tomorrow.

Posted by: mikhas | Apr 18 2022 18:28 utc | 27

Apr 18 2022 @ 18
"...the Biden administration and its European allies have begun planning for a far different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it as a matter of long-term strategy."

That has been the strategy of every adminstration since the fall of the Soviet Union. Step by step

Posted by: circumspect | Apr 18 2022 18:33 utc | 28

Posted by: bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14

There may be some advantage to waiting a bit on issues like confiscation of foreign assets in order to see what the fallout of the sanctions in Europe is and whether some changes in government will occur as a result. The full effect of these major changes in trade and financial networks has not been felt or realized yet by the subject populations. It is not yet clear what ""...many Europeans feel" about it all - only what some government leaders and the folks in Brussels and NATO headquarters feel. That said, some punitive measures are probably in order, and taking action to prevent assets from being spirited out of the country.

Internal measures like reorientation to domestic production, fostering entrepreneurial activity, reforming the tax structure, and actively searching new markets, etc can be undertaken immediately while perhaps giving some time for the reality of this brave new world to settle in.

As for the Ukraine's threat to confiscate Russian assets - that should be dealt with harshly and immediately IMO.

Posted by: the pessimist | Apr 18 2022 18:33 utc | 29

bevin @14--

On the Week in Review thread, I reported on the economic news and linked to today's meeting on that topic at the Kremlin. Over the weekend, I provided a critical review of Galzyev's most recent essay that was agreed with by several other barflies that you can read further down that thread. Helmer seems to be channeling Glazyev's many I told you so type complaints, which is why Putin put him in the EEC not Russia's Finance Ministry.

As you'll read, Russia's resilience in the face of over 9,600 sanctions is remarkable but also in some respects expected since Russia's government had a very good idea of what to expect. Those sanctions have generated a large wave of blowback that's now deeply affecting their issuers, who are now desperately trying to blame Putin for their own actions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 18 2022 18:33 utc | 30

Posted by: bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14

TASS has reported that the Russian government is not currently thinking about nationalizing foreign companies because the companies are still paying the leases and salaries of the employees.

Actions speak louder than words.

Posted by: Douglas Houck | Apr 18 2022 18:33 utc | 31

Here Gonzalo Lira says that the scumbags at Daily Beast contacted the Ukra-Nazis in order to get the SBU goons to go get him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-sWV9HybKw

I believe him.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 18:37 utc | 32

"Nazi-st Azov battalion" and not "fascist Azov battalion."

moonofalabama let's not change the facts!!


Posted by: ultimo | Apr 18 2022 18:41 utc | 33

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 18:37 utc | 32

goddamn them to hell.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 18:45 utc | 34

The war has been going on for eight years. Ukraine has in no way ever been attacked by the people of Donetsk and Lugansk, but vice versa.
We said nothing when the two Russian provinces unanimously wanted to secede from Ukraine and President Poroshenko dropped bombs on residential areas and hospitals.
An air war took place over Ukraine during disaster MH17.
But we do blame those people for trying to protect themselves against those bombings, with the known result: MH17.
If he thought those two provinces belonged to Ukraine, he bombed his own people.
If we had condemned that just as harshly and had it stopped, there would have been no MH17 disaster and now no country war.

Posted by: Faraday | Apr 18 2022 18:52 utc | 35

The war will end when Zelensky and the junta get an agreement for millions of Jews from Israel to be resettled at US and EU expense in the best parts of Ukraine which have been recently cleared out of its Slav inhabitants.

Posted by: Obamavirus | Apr 18 2022 18:56 utc | 36

Tom_Q, #32:

Daily Beast is a vile neo con rag, headed by Michael Weiss, who personifies evil: a dated (2016) description of this cretin:

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/michael-weiss-the-neocons-neocon/

Posted by: Thomas | Apr 18 2022 18:58 utc | 37

@27 mikhas

Re: selfie video of Zelensky trippin

Understandable that he needs to numb the world out.

His dalliance with the fascists, his betrayal of the promises he made to Ukrainian voters to bring peace, and his cheering on of one provocation after another, has led to disaster for his country. For Europe it will be a financial disaster at a minimum, possibly far worse. For the third world, possible starvation. And of course no love for him in Russia.

Once the reality registers, whether in a month or in 5-10 years, history is unlikely to remember him well.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 18 2022 19:02 utc | 38

So sad what happened to Gonzalo Lira, I followed him daily on YouTube, just criminal and sick.

Posted by: Hannibal | Apr 18 2022 19:09 utc | 39

Posted by: Thomas | Apr 18 2022 18:58 utc | 37

thanks for this link, all I knew about the Daily Beast was they were big Clinton supporters, but this guy Weiss takes it to a whole different level. what a scum.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 19:11 utc | 40

@ Nemesis 19

As to attacking entrenchments, the Russian Army has at its disposal, the 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm mortar that fires 221 lb. F864 high explosive projectiles -- since its mount is mobile, it can easily evade counter-bombardment -- the shock wave alone is devestating.

Posted by: chet380 | Apr 18 2022 19:16 utc | 41

"Apr 18 2022 @ 18
"...the Biden administration and its European allies have begun planning for a far different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it as a matter of long-term strategy."

That has been the strategy of every adminstration since the fall of the Soviet Union. Step by step

Posted by: circumspect | Apr 18 2022 18:33 utc "

You can go farther back to the onset of the Cold War and consider the process initiated by the US and Britain to split Germany. The Soviets were adamant on following through on the Yalta and Potsdam agreements that specified reparations to the SU drawn from the entire German economy, that maintained a unified Germany with a national administration, that denazified political and economic organizations, and broke up the cartels that had allowed Nazi Germany to rapidly mobilize. After those agreements the US gradually and then completely shifted to a focus on Western European economic revival that worried not only the Soviets but also the French because of its nazi-tolerance. The Soviets kept falling back in their insistence on the letter of the original agreements, but the US eventually decided that it would be easier to control Europe without Soviet participation in the administration of Germany. Throughout all of this farce the US complained about Soviet intransigence. The parallel with the present is rather striking. Carolyn Eichorn goes through this thoroughly in her book "Drawing the Line: The American Decision to Divide Germany, 1944-49"

Posted by: dadooronron | Apr 18 2022 19:23 utc | 43

Sorry, Carolyn Eisenberg, not Eichorn, wrote "Drawing the Line"

Posted by: dadooronron | Apr 18 2022 19:25 utc | 44

Thomas #37 -

There is also this at Unz: https://www.unz.com/article/michael-weiss-and-the-iran-u-s-hardline-nexus-that-led-iranian-american-to-evin-prison/

So now I 100% know that Daily Beast at least *tried* to inform the SBU on Gonzalo Lira. It's in their DNA and they have a documented history of it.

Daily Beast == evil subhuman scum.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 19:27 utc | 45

As for b's primary question, Putin answered that already last week:

""What's happening today? Today, the system of the unipolar world that developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union is being destroyed, that's what is most important. The main thing is not even the tragic events taking place in the Donbass and Ukraine, because this is not the main thing. Much is said that the United States is "ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian." And they say, and we say, in fact, this is how it is. That is the quintessence of the events taking place." [My Emphasis]

The Outlaw US Empire wants to turn Ukraine into Afghanistan, which was the longstanding goal since 1945--turn it into an Anti-Russia. The Empire already trained the Ukrainian segment of its Terrorist Foreign Legion as we watch those tactics being employed and is hoping to wage a very longterm insurgency using those NATO nations abutting Ukraine for the insurgency's deep reserve hoping Russia won't do what the Empire did in Indochina by attacking Cambodia and Laos, which would in this case be Poland, Slovakia and Romania. However, Russia will do what the Outlaw US Empire didn't. It will give those nations one warning about providing such support, and when they continue they'll be invaded--not just bombed by B-52s. You see, that works into Russia's need to remove NATO from its borders and recreate some of the buffer zone the Warsaw Pact provided.

As I wrote earlier, it's entirely possible Russia will go as far West as France's eastern border and Brussels, which would liberate Germany from NATO occupation and capture NATO's HQ--it would essentially be Barbarossa in reverse. Russia would then be able to dictate the dimensions of Europe's Security as it was fashioned by the OSCE whose treaties were all broken by NATO nations. To do so, as with Ukraine, Russia doesn't need to capture the large cities; all it needs to do is demilitarize its opponents and capture NATO HQ in Brussels, which can be accomplished via a modern blitzkrieg with Russia's superior weapons and military personnel. The Outlaw US Empire's small potatoes insurgency gambit will be countered by Russia's going for the jugular and erase NATO from history.

In his article, b notes that most of Russia's most advanced military formations have yet to be deployed. NATO anti-tank weapons are bouncing off the protective armor of modified T-72s and will likewise have no affect on T-90s and T-14 Armatas. Then there's the Aerospace forces and their AD counterparts that can set up a no-fly zone all across Northern Europe. Has anyone noticed what's happening in the Baltic Sea? NATO's offering its navy as targets for Russia's anti-ship missiles. Thanks to modern highway construction, according to google maps its only a 20 hour drive from Minsk to Brussels and there're no static defenses to impede progress. Any attempt by the Outlaw US Empire and its Canadian vassal to reinforce via sea will be sunk.

Will Russia employ such a plan? Would it succeed? Does Russia possess the motivation? Have the paper tiger generals at the Pentagon recently seriously contemplated any of the above?

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 18 2022 19:30 utc | 46

I don't know if this woman is affiliated with the Daily Beast, but she is sure happy about his capture.
https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1516007391367778305/

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 19:31 utc | 47

https://www.fox5vegas.com/2022/04/01/journalist-las-vegas-reporting-frontline-ukraine/

oh an "independent" journalist embedded with Ukrainian forces.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 19:33 utc | 48

@NemesisCalling #3

What's ''peak-globalism''?

Posted by: fnord | Apr 18 2022 19:33 utc | 49

A Nazi grouping called "Kraken" claims to have caught Gonzalo Lira. There is also somebody claiming he was caught while buying food. In the Telegram chat the Kraken guy did not clearly state whether the torture was over and Lira was already dead or it was still ongoing.

Posted by: GorgoNZola | Apr 18 2022 19:36 utc | 50

Plan?

Zelensky remains wildly popular in US. All the girls are in love with him and so are many of the boys. Non-binary and other gendered voters are even more ecstatic. US politicians look at their own voters, not at far away reality. So steady on course and time to fix up Zelensky with a good agent.

Asked a couple of my acquaintance about the family members they had told me were headed to Uke to volunteer and fight. Mistake. That project no longer operative. Accused of being a communist. Accused of being pro-Soviet. Accused of performing unnatural acts with Putin. Accused of hating America. Well, have not had any opportunity to do anything personally with Putin, by their definitions certainly guilty of the rest.

The narrative is very strong.The narrative is working for domestic purposes.The proximate objective is the November election. If the entire Uke army plus territorials plus volksturm is all dead by then it only proves Putin is a madman. Which works fine for the narrative.There is no other plan and does not need to be. If the barflies can smell the piles of dead flesh from 10,000 km away they will tell you it is the new perfume. They don’t care.

Posted by: Oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 19:42 utc | 51

Link to the telegram chat where I read it: https://t.me/VanessaBeeley/5145

Posted by: GorgoNZola | Apr 18 2022 19:43 utc | 52

Thank you for this Sitrep b. The refusal to surrender by the resistant units at the steel plant creates dire humane situations but the blame is squarely on Zelensky and the command of the 4,000 troops. Russia cannot be blamed for insisting on clearance of Nazi remnants at Mariupol/Donbass regions. It is their national security issue, especially by now we all know that enemies of Russia, aka the Empire, is the kind of animals that would do anything to achieve their goals. Having NATO and Nazis right at Russia's front door is an absolute no, no. If it takes cruelty to protect itself, Russia should well do it.

Hang on Russia! You are doing what it takes to change the world for the better--liberation from the Evil Empire!

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 18 2022 19:45 utc | 53


Watch from 28:55:00, it is worth your time…
Sentiment of loyalty and poetry

Posted by: SailorsWife | Apr 18 2022 19:47 utc | 54

bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14

I wouldn't call that important. More like knee jerk reactions. As for foreign companies still operating in Russia, its about keeping the economy as stable a possible.
As for selling energy and fertilizer to the enemy which is something I did not understand for awhile - two things, it brings in money, but also the US dollar will be the gauge for measuring national currencies and goods during the transition to the new trading system. And perhaps a third reason - what the US and EU have done will already cause huge disruption in world food chains. Russian reciprocal economic sanctions would make that far worse and it is the third world countries that will suffer most.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 18 2022 19:53 utc | 55

I have collected some sources on Gonzalo Lira and his disappearance.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 18 2022 20:04 utc | 56

bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14

There may be a reason that the Russians are "going slow" where nationalization of foreign owned businesses are concerned. Which is the amount of sanctions it is subject to has stopped escalating recently. Have the EU and US (less) started thinking about what the long term results can be? Think of only next year!

1) EU commerce and corporations suffer from a lack of primary materials (gas et al) from Russia already and this will get worse. Production slows and a "recession" follows.
2) By isolating Russia they cut themselves off from the BRI and rail connections to the Far East, Asia generally, India, Pakistan, etc. etc.
3) Ship transfers are getting less sure as the blocking (accidentally?) of the Suez canal showed.
4) China is having a "lockdown" craze which incindentally cuts exports to and from the EU and US.
5) Roubles will be roubles, if you can find them when you need them. (The reserves of gas in the EU last month were just about empty.)

So? How long before the EU finds out it NEEDS contact with Russia? At which point it may well become much more amenable to talks and trade. The US is already putting up the price of LNG gas, even the Ukrainians don't bomb their money fountain, represented by gas pipelines. (The elite are also probably still getting their cut. Kolomoiski and other oligarchs would be hurt if their scams were eliminated)

Meanwhile the dollar fights for it's life and the Pentagon spends vapor-paper. The Euro is going slow, as both areas try to increase interest rates, to slow down galloping inflation, and hide their massive "negative values" from the population. (Hides huge debts based on minimal collateral, held together by hope and circumstance).

***
In other words, the die has been cast - Russia's position as purveyor of goodies to the world almost guarantees that it will become totally self-sufficient and an asset to the future. As time advances Russia overall position improves, so why not keep the Corporations/businesses ready to serve Russia again. (Guess on whose terms?)
****

Just an extra note; in a few decenies Siberia will profit from global warming (whatever the source) to be one of the major agricultural regions of the world, and by reason of the same global warming, the US will become a dry, drought struck sandbox.

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 18 2022 20:05 utc | 57

In the Donetsk and Lugansk regions there is a terrible roar of powerful strikes, volleys of large calibers are being fired towards the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://t.me/intelslava/25827

The final chapter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass?

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 20:10 utc | 58

Julian Assange is wasting away in a British jail waiting for the Americans to take him away. But now the Russians have caught two British soldiers of fortune who are begging to be repatriated. Wouldn't it be nice if the Russians contacted the UK about a prisoner swap? Then the Russians would have both Assange and Edward Snowden in house and that might be useful to them surveillance wise.

Posted by: Chas | Apr 18 2022 20:11 utc | 59

@48&52

Good links. Here’s another.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sarah-ashton-cirillo-withdrawls-from-the-race-for-office-opts-to-focus-on-newly-launched-portal-politicaltips-301409757.html

This lady certainly gets around. Bio of a spook. Oops, she looks exactly like persons I used to know with same name and I should hold back. No journalist.

Doubt she has ever been to Kharkov. Wonder if anyone recognizes the buildings in her video clip.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 20:12 utc | 60

#47:

It's not a woman it's a ukie transgender freak.

Posted by: mikhas | Apr 18 2022 20:13 utc | 61

Heavy large-caliber shelling reported at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, as well as at most Ukrainian positions in Luhansk and Donetsk. Clearly Russia tonight has started the new stage of the war - with one front only, focused on Eastern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1516142374023573506

Bellingcat dude saying shelling on Nikolaev is happening. It indicates the second phase is not only about Donbass pincer movements, but about the entire South-East of Ukraine with one axis toward Odessa.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Apr 18 2022 20:20 utc | 62

#60:

What you refer to as a "woman" is in fact a sodomite. Take a closer look....

Posted by: mikhas | Apr 18 2022 20:22 utc | 63

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 20:12 utc | 60

Same person:

https://www.facebook.com/ElectSarahAshton

Posted by: jr | Apr 18 2022 20:24 utc | 64

Posted by: Kouros | Apr 18 2022 17:55 utc | 8

Wise words from those with wizened hands and hanging skins. Many are also of the opinion that War need not pass the Torch from failing hands to continue the quarrel with the foe (In Flanders Fields-JOHN MCCRAE).

Indeed a more apt assessment may be told by Wilfred Owen in Dulce et Decorum Est (Also killed in the "Great War"). Likely a more fitting Poem for November 11/Remembrance day.

Bent double, like old beggars under sacks,
Knock-kneed, coughing like hags, we cursed through sludge,
Till on the haunting flares we turned our backs,
And towards our distant rest began to trudge.
Men marched asleep. Many had lost their boots,
But limped on, blood-shod. All went lame; all blind;
Drunk with fatigue; deaf even to the hoots
Of gas-shells dropping softly behind.

Gas! GAS! Quick, boys!—An ecstasy of fumbling
Fitting the clumsy helmets just in time,
But someone still was yelling out and stumbling
And flound’ring like a man in fire or lime.—
Dim through the misty panes and thick green light,
As under a green sea, I saw him drowning.

In all my dreams before my helpless sight,
He plunges at me, guttering, choking, drowning.

If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,—
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.

Notes:
Latin phrase is from the Roman poet Horace: “It is sweet and fitting to die for one’s country.”


Posted by: AParadiseLost | Apr 18 2022 20:24 utc | 65

Chas | Apr 18 2022 20:11 utc | 59

Now that is what I call a GOOD idea. (Even if the Russian only suggested this it would be good PR)
**

My @57
"incindentally" cuts..... should "incidentally" be cut to size. sorry.

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 18 2022 20:25 utc | 66

Re: Stonebird @57,

I'm pretty sure the Russians will eventually nationalize those foreign business, but they will probably do it for non-payment of taxes (a well established legal process) rather than a forced nationalization by decree. I see the process like this. The companies have left Russia, but the properties (and equipment) are still there in Russia, taxes, contracts and loans still need to be paid for, BUT because of the sanctions on the Russian banks the western companies wont be able to transfer the funds from the West to cover these expenses. As such, the Russian state and Russian creditors will start seizing the assets for non-payment, normally seizing assets would be a slow process that the debtor could contest through legal means, but again the western sanctions will largely prevent both the ability to travel to Russia to contest the cases AND the ability to transfer funds to lawyers in Russia to represent the clients in Russian courts. So, we'll probably see most of these assets "nationalized" for outstanding taxes or non-payment of loans over the next 6 months to a year. This would put the West in a very difficult position, Russian assets in the West were directly seized by the government, often without legal recourse or a formal legal judgement, thus they will have to return the assets (or a portion of the value) once normal relations are restored (hopefully over the next 20-30yrs), but the West will have no such argument to use against the Russian state, as Western companies left of their own choice and then the Western governments blocked electronic money transfers to Russia that would have allowed these businesses to pay taxes/creditors on their assets, thus triggering a default and a seizure for non-payment, which is completely legitimate reason to seize an asset.

Posted by: Kadath | Apr 18 2022 20:27 utc | 67

@ b. Thanks for your tireless efforts on this Easter weekend.
The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?

Well, there is no plan. It’s called sinking in quick-sand and thinking so far, so good.
= = = = = = =
if what we suspect is confirmed, Heartfelt sorrow for Gonzalo Lira’s family .
My nearby franchised supermarket is on my boycott to do list. At the cash terminal there is a begging banner, "Aid for Ukraine". I asked, “do you hug Nazis too?”
= = = = = = =

The case can be made, indeed it is fairly obvious, that Russia is protecting the interests of is enemies, at the expense of its people. Which was the course that the Tsar and his Orthodox backers pursued in the half century before 1917. 

Posted by: bevin | Apr 18 2022 18:06 utc | 14

Respectfully, from which hymnal did you find that assessment?

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 18 2022 20:31 utc | 68

#60, 64

Daily Beast describes her/him as a “left-wing activist”
LOL

Posted by: Krypton | Apr 18 2022 20:33 utc | 69

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHF0grdh5sY

thank you for this. the video from Syriana Analysis was very incisive and helpful. It's a shrewd idea contacting the Chilean government, perhaps they will be no better than the Australian government was, but Lira was purportedly related to some Chilean oligarch, and I hope it was somebody very influential.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 20:34 utc | 70

b asks:

The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?

Let me posit that no strategic planning of any sort is coming out of Kiev. Furthermore, the plan certainly does not have the welfare of Ukrainians as its objective. In fact, what Ukrainians may consider a loss would probably be perceived as a win by the actual planners.

From their perspective, smoke and rubble is the true measure of success. So my guess is, they are going to try and push this thing as far and as long as they can.

Posted by: robin | Apr 18 2022 20:36 utc | 71

The planned Zionist anschluss of Ukraine will also attract thousands of Jews in Russia proper to emigrate . There is the whole Jewish Autonomous Oblast in the Far East on the border of China. How many American Jews will want to go remains the question. The upcoming unraveling of the Democrat party and its corrupt practices will be a critical inflection point.

Posted by: Obamavirus | Apr 18 2022 20:38 utc | 72

She has a hit list. Patrick Lancaster is next.


https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/2123

Posted by: Oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 20:40 utc | 73

Posted by: Krypton | Apr 18 2022 20:33 utc | 69

i would describe her/him as an international terrorist aiding the Nazis, if by some small chance this person is actually in Kharkiv I earnestly hope the Russians are aware of his/her presence. it's certainly possible this person knows what happened to Gonzalo Lira, and certainly supports the efforts of the United States and its troupe of trained poodles to cripple or destroy Russia.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 18 2022 20:45 utc | 74

@49 fnord

Re: peak-globalism

It is the intersection between the greatest amount of world dominance and the smallest amount of connected people.

...

Where have you been?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 18 2022 20:51 utc | 75

LIFE OF UKRAINIAN PRISONERS IN CAPTIVITY

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 20:52 utc | 76

In the Donetsk and Lugansk regions there is a terrible roar of powerful strikes...

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 20:10 utc | 58

"The Plan" from the Russians has been cleverly hidden in public notices -- such as the "special diplomatic note" about arms shipments to Ukraine. The SMO has been replaced by a necessary war -- it's now called a war by some people who matter, like Kadyrov. I sense an entirely new attitude which some might call "no more Mr Nice Guy".

Ukraine is a pathetic puppet state, at least since 2014. If there's a plan for them anywhere, it's in Washington DC.

Having a plan in the first place is a property of minds qualified with intelligence, thoughtfulness, and foresight, qualities which are not only missing from the entirely vacant so-called Cheif Executive of USA, but also from his somewhat less cognitively incapacitated trio of principle advisors, Winkin' Blinkin' & Ned. I mean really. Plan? We don't need no stinkin' plan. We just kick the hornet's nest to see what happens. Creative disruption, don't you know?

Empire's plan was something about pivoting to China, wasn't it? Now Taiwan makes up its mind whether to become the next Ukraine, as China's patience wears thin. This might become the Ukraine/Taiwan thread before long. Scott Ritter thinks the odds of that are pretty good.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 18 2022 20:54 utc | 77

Kadath | Apr 18 2022 20:27 utc | 67

That is a neater way of doing things.
The Russians stick "by the book", and in the end this will pay off.
I am having to learn patience!

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 18 2022 20:54 utc | 78

From my # 73 looked up the account she is conversing with, patiperro_ua. He features glamour shots of Augusto Pinochet, Our Liberator.

Spookland.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 20:55 utc | 79

Is Ukraine terror-bombing Kharkov?

I had a closer look at the twitter account that reported on Gonzalo Lira's forced disappearance. It looks like Ukraine is intentionally targeting residential areas of Kharkov in an effort to terrorize the population.

Sarah Ashton-Cirillo @SarahAshtonLV on Twitter, April 16, 2022

Oh wow.

Look United States 👀

There is a Russian rocket in a PARKING LOT in #Ukraine .

Do Something.

A single GRAD rocket is embedded in the pavement. Sarah Ashton-Cirillo says there were a total of three of them: "two today, one the other day." (She mistakenly calls the GRAD a "Smerch".) There does not seem to be any other damage, nor is there any military target nearby.

I do not think the GRAD rocket was fired by Russia. Grads are fired in salvos of 40 to 360 rockets at once. There can be no military rational for firing a single grad when there is an unlimited supply of them. The only purpose of a single grad can be to terrorize civilians and prevent them from moving around. A secondary purpose being to create fake propaganda for NATO sheeple.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 18 2022 21:00 utc | 80

Daily Beast describes her/him as a “left-wing activist” LOL

Posted by: Krypton | Apr 18 2022 20:33 utc | 69


Obviously a capital offense . . . /s

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2022 21:02 utc | 81

Having played with some fireworks in my life, I cannot believe that those craters are 2 meters , ie 6ft across.

I have set off quarter sticks of dynamite, and just lying on the surface, they will create a hole in the ground about 3 feet across and 2 to 3 feet deep.

I am skeptical that the Russians are lobbing large fireworks at these folks.

There are a lot of experts on various things on this site.
I am surprised that i only got one response from a person who obviously is unable to grasp the scale any better than i could.

There appears to be the remains of a structure. How big was this structure? Was it 30 meters by 10 meters? Was it 300 meters by 100 meters? How large is the crater from whatever munitions the Russians are using.

I will be shocked if someone here is unable to give an authoritative answer.

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 21:03 utc | 82

British mercenary shaun pinner now begs boris johnson to be exchanged

Heavy-bosomed British booby cossackgundi continues to sing against ex-comrades

I think the best they can hope for is a very long stay in prison.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 21:03 utc | 83

lots of unconfirmed rumors about Gonzalo Lira, Peter Gilbert is reporting a Gonzalo's death at the hands of the Ukraine SBU but his only source is a single comment on his Telegram channel

Posted by: Kadath | Apr 18 2022 21:05 utc | 84


Forty years ago, the oligarchs in the United States shipped its productive capacity to China. This was preceded by years of leverage buyouts which bankrupted company after company sending tens of thousands of ordinary Americans to the unemployment lines, while the US Government stood back and allowed it to happen as any village idiot could see it was wrecking the country. The is was followed by the treasonous act of both corporate and national leaders who sent the US national production capacity to China, oligarchs insured that millions of Americans would lose their jobs and the US Government supported them, but it had the distinct benefit of creating a billionaire class for the few. And now there is a supply chain problem. Big surprise! There are no supply chain problems when a nation maintains its own productive capacity. And China is locking down its economy, because of “Covid”. I’m sure it has nothing to do with strangling the United States. Now the United States produces little but weapons and, oh yeah, there are jobs for financial paper and hamburger flippers.
I think it was Tiberius who said that countries fall nor because of foreign enemies but from the traitors within. This is an appropriate denouement of the United States.

Posted by: Al | Apr 18 2022 21:06 utc | 85

Stonebird @57--

On Siberia becoming a new agricultural region, that won't happen anytime soon as soil worthy of the name takes centuries to make from the base permafrost/tundra strata. Here's this Wiki bit:

"In the northern circumpolar region, permafrost contains 1700 billion tons of organic material equaling almost half of all organic material in all soils.[66] This pool was built up over thousands of years and is only slowly degraded under the cold conditions in the Arctic. The amount of carbon sequestered in permafrost is four times the carbon that has been released to the atmosphere due to human activities in modern time.[67] One manifestation of this is yedoma, which is an organic-rich (about 2% carbon by mass) Pleistocene-age loess permafrost with ice content of 50–90% by volume.[68]

"Formation of permafrost has significant consequences for ecological systems, primarily due to constraints imposed upon rooting zones, but also due to limitations on den and burrow geometries for fauna requiring subsurface homes. Secondary effects impact species dependent on plants and animals whose habitat is constrained by the permafrost. One of the most widespread examples is the dominance of black spruce in extensive permafrost areas, since this species can tolerate rooting pattern constrained to the near surface."

And this about tundra:

"Tundra vegetation is composed of dwarf shrubs, sedges, grasses, mosses, and lichens. Scattered trees grow in some tundra regions. The ecotone (or ecological boundary region) between the tundra and the forest is known as the tree line or timberline. The tundra soil is rich in nitrogen and phosphorus.[3] The soil also contains large amounts of biomass and decomposed biomass that has been stored as methane and carbon dioxide in the permafrost, making the tundra soil a carbon sink. As global warming heats the ecosystem and causes soil thawing, the permafrost carbon cycle accelerates and releases much of these soil-contained greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, creating a feedback cycle that increases climate change."

Finally, here's a paper on "Tundra: Topography and Soil".

Unexamined is the Taiga, the forest zone in Siberia and Northern Canada, but even that zone will take many generations to become productive farmland.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 18 2022 21:07 utc | 86

Daily Beast describes her/him as a “left-wing activist” LOL

Posted by: Krypton | Apr 18 2022 20:33 utc | 69


Obviously a capital offense . . . /s

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2022 21:02 utc | 81


Apologies. I thought that the Daily Vermin was describing Lira as a left-wing activist, but instead it must have meant that ghastly Sarah Ashton Cirillo.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2022 21:07 utc | 87

I think the best they can hope for is a very long stay in prison.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 21:03 utc | 83


I'd prefer they not be given any publicity at all, not even news of their whereabouts, until their war crimes trials.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2022 21:09 utc | 88

The plan as such is simply fight until the last Ukrainian and if possible the last European.
Russia probably has enough soviet era artillery munitions to plough Ukraine three times over.
Russia may well do something like it did at Deir Ezzor. Just allow the US to feed nazi's into a killing field or two.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 18 2022 21:09 utc | 89

14 bevin, indeed that case can be made and IMO, that "all things jab related" between Moscow and the western sanction-giving mafia continue apace, exempt from all sanctioning. Further, IMO, the timing of the whole hell show in Ukraine seems in part suspect to divert all eyes from the mass die-off going on since last August. Having served in two SFOR rotations next to the Russian sector in Bosnia, I see a case could have been made where Russia could have sent a peacekeeping force into Donbass in 2015. Even 1500 troops on 6-month rotations. That would have gone a long way in preventing the Azov nuts from digging in there in ever-increasing numbers. Now, a mass grave for 4,000 Ukies and untold numbers of human shield hostages is in motion in the industrial complex.

Posted by: ERing46Z | Apr 18 2022 21:10 utc | 90

@malenkov | Apr 18 2022 21:09 utc | 88

Point taken.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 21:12 utc | 91

@Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 20:12 utc | 60

She certainly seems to be in many places that the US deep state would like a journalist/operative to be: Haiti, Balkans, now Ukraine. Looks like a classic woke libtard true believer. And yes, she is transgender, completing her transition in 2019 in her late 30's. I won't mention the possible link between autogynephilia and late transitioning.

Some background on her:
https://worldofwonder.net/this-transgender-liberal-activist-went-undercover-to-recruit-proud-boys-for-the-gop/

And she writes unbelievable self-aggrandizing narcissistic tosh like this:
https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2022/04/lgbtq-community-minorities-war-fought-every-day/

But she likes hanging around with Nazis in a nation which is generally very negative about trans people. And she is happy that a journalist is most probably being tortured and murdered, quite possibly because of her actions. Welcome to the crazy place which is the woke, libtard, neocon brain.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:14 utc | 92

AI@85

Yep. And nobody listened when they were told this.

Who exactly is the enemy here?

Posted by: David F | Apr 18 2022 21:17 utc | 93

@ Oldhippie | Apr 18 2022 19:42 utc | 51

Gotta say old fella, there be many fuckwits in many places but you seem to live in a particularly shitty location. Move?!

Posted by: Rae | Apr 18 2022 21:21 utc | 94

Posted by: Al | Apr 18 2022 21:06 utc | 85

Don't worry, Mark Suckerberg's "Metaverse" will give us all the chance and place to reboot and rebuild.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 21:21 utc | 95

@Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 18 2022 21:07 utc | 86

I have had this conversation with so many of my friends, they all think that northern Canada is going to turn into the granary of the world due to climate change. As you, I mention the lack of real topsoil, then there is the much shorter daylight hours due to the Earths shape. Then the land subsidence that will continuously undermine any mad-made structures. Then on top of that I mention the melting of the permafrost creating a type of marshland/shallow lake conditions that favour anaerobic breakdown of the organic matter in the permafrost, producing highly flammable methane (97% of natural gas is methane). A wet soggy hellscape that will take decades or much more to become useful for agriculture.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:22 utc | 96

@82 David F

No idea, but some clues...
Trees are visible (lighter skeletony things) as well as the shadows they cast. The sun is roughly in the 1 o'clock position in the photo. The sun is lower in the sky than the angles of the sides of most of the craters.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 18 2022 21:24 utc | 97

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 18 2022 20:54 utc | 77

Now would probably be the perfect time for China to move on Taiwan. Give the USUKNATO the two-front war they claim to have been preparing for but which we all know they are completely unable to fight in the real world. Could you imagine the media response to that? And what would "we" do, sanction China and thereby 90% of American consumers? I use the word "consumers" instead of citizens, too. Because that's all the neoliberals/neocons really think we are - and a good number of "us" are proving them right with how we consume "news" as well. Just have a look at all the Blue_Check_Bobbleheads at Twitter.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 18 2022 21:26 utc | 98

@Posted by: mikhas | Apr 18 2022 20:22 utc | 63

If she has fully physically transitioned she has got no pecker to do any sodomiting with!

Also, sexual attraction and gender identity are not correlated. She could have been attracted to women before the transition and still is, or attracted to men, or both.

Posted by: Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:26 utc | 99

@Roger | Apr 18 2022 21:22 utc | 96

then there is the much shorter daylight hours due to the Earths shape.

I don't have any issues with your geopolitics, but I suggest you avoid anything related to physics.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2022 21:29 utc | 100

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