More evidence...that you are not in the right side of history when you support in the Ukraine the same people who uses to behave like this for the past 7 decades....

https://twitter.com/KevorkAlmassian/status/1512840918352674826

Posted by: Givi | Apr 10 2022 18:05 utc | 501

@Sushi #479:

I believe the height of 2.25 km is in error or typo in the original source document.

It doesn’t appear to be an error. See this exhaustive article on Tochkas: http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-191.html

At that height a crosswindof any strength would displace the sub-munitions downwind a considerable distance. The intact missile retains internal guidance until the dispersal of the sub-muniitons. The sub-munitions have no form of active guidance and would drift uncorrected on the prevaiing wind.

Yes, that’s why I assumed (without checking) that the submunitions must be deploying relatively close to the ground, but no, they aren’t. Maybe the effect of the wind is not that large, given that the submunitions are moving at great speed towards the ground. The pieces of cloth at the top of the submunitions are not parachutes, just ribbons to make sure that the contact fuses keep pointing downwards.

Posted by: S | Apr 10 2022 18:13 utc | 502

S | Apr 10 2022 18:13 utc | 502

From available info, the tochka runs at around mach 5. In the transition zone from supersonic to hypersonic. based on what Paveway said and wikipedia it transitions into a vertical or near vertical dive depending on the warhead no matter if it is in ballistic or cruise mode.

I would guess the missile would at least be in the high supersonic range when it deploys the sub munitions in the dive and as you say, not a lot of drift due to wind.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 10 2022 18:27 utc | 503

Sushi@457 - The railway track damage example was just to show how energetic the fragments were generally in this type of munition - it's function is well beyond anti-personnel but not to the degree of a full anti-armor submunition. I didn't mean to suggest it was used by anyone to disable the railway or tracks, it's just that the fragmentation damage would have been extensive and obvious. I would think so if the Tochka's target was 200m away from the station. Even a few submunitions exploding on the then crowded entry side should have caused much more damage. I was surprised to see no reports of damage in the immediate area that should have been caused by all the other submunitions. Draw a 300m ring around the train station and you can see how much of the rest of the town should have been damaged.

That said, I highly doubt the Ukrainian side would intentionally target the train station even though it's obvious they fired the missile. This is a heavily-contested electronic warfare environment. Russians are undoubtedly jamming the GPS that mobile Tochka launchers depend on for aiming. The missiles themselves don't use GPS while in flight, but the geographic location of the launch site and target must be precise. Untrained operators or scrambled GPS is enough to make precise aiming all but impossible. Expired, malfunctioning motors could also cause the missile to fall short or have its guidance actuators disabled. Tochkas don't age well - that's why the Russians got rid of them rather than refurbish. The anti-personnel version is imprecise (despite the specs), unreliable and have a much wider area of destruction than is usually practical in a modern battlefield. These were made to use against km-wide massed formations of U.S./NATO forces attacking the USSR in areas like the wide-open plains of central and eastern Ukraine.

I'm not excusing the Ukrainian side's willingness to butcher a few civilians to further their cause. I just don't think that's what happened *in this case*, and I may be 100% wrong.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Apr 10 2022 18:33 utc | 504

thanks paveway... i appreciate your balanced viewpoint and knowledge and interest in the technical details..

Posted by: james | Apr 10 2022 19:28 utc | 505

According to Intel Slava Z, there has been an enormous explosion near Nikalaev. And judging by the photographs, an enormous explosion occurred, but there is no more information as yet.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️Something serious has arrived in Nikolaev. Ukrainian sources confirm the arrival, but do not specify where.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️More Nikolaev.
Something very serious exploded.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️According to an eyewitness, there has never been such a powerful explosion.

https://t.me/intelslava/24933

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 10 2022 20:31 utc | 506

I've posted it twice and twice it hasn't published, so no more!

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 10 2022 14:44 utc | 474

Refresh the page first.

Posted by: Olivier | Apr 10 2022 20:31 utc | 507

Tochka's booster continues behind the explosion, this video proves it:

Posted by: Logol | Apr 10 2022 8:58 utc | 409

This video proves nothing. Except that the ship was hit several times and one booster landed inside the port, that is before the ship.

Posted by: Olivier | Apr 10 2022 20:44 utc | 508

Posted by: Boo | Apr 10 2022 10:27 utc | 419

Yes the connection may be in something called "permanent revolution" that the Trots always advocate except they oppose almost every Communist and Left revolution that ever took place. Stalin believed in "socialism in one country" and the Trots wanted "permanent worldwide revolution" because they thought socialism in one country was doomed to fail.

As you can see, the neocons also seem to be advocating something like permanent worldwide revolution.

Also the Trots long had a reputation at least in my Mom's generation of being mostly Jewish. And of course the neocons were mostly Jewish at first. They were rightwing Jews. Trots who started to leave Communism after Stalin's crimes were revealed and then became much more rightwing with the Vietnam War when they all turned into patriotards. Also they hated the Cultural revolutions of the 1960's. They were older types and that stuff just offended them, sort of a generational thing.

The 1967 War in the Middle East also had a profound effect on them. Most of them were Jewish, and before this, most US Jews had not cared much about Israel. But in 1967, it became a life or death thing where the existence of Israel was thought to be at stake (Holocaust PTSD) and many US Jews become more conservative and become strongly Zionist around this time. Also the USSR was supporting the Arabs, so many soured on the USSR.

There had always been rightwing Jews. Think of Roy Cohn, one of the worst human beings who ever lived. Quintessional rightwing Jew. In the early part of the century, many Jewish immigrants to big cities in the East were very poor. They worked at working class jobs and while Gentiles will take that crap, Jews won't take it for one second. They don't like to work with their hands anyway. So they became very active in the labor movement due to the crappy way they were treated at their blue collar jobs.

Also they lived in crowded slums ruled by slumlords, and many became active in tenants' rights and housing rights. This is the side of the Jews that I as a Leftist really love! Sure it was self-interested but so what. Most things are. At the time they were pitted against slumlords, many of whom were Jewish and are to this very day. I saw a list of the 20 worst slumlords in New York and 19 of them were Jews. These slumlords became rightwing Jews. So there was a big left versus right Jewish fight for a long time in the US.

Then they became Cold Warriors and declared war on the USSR. At first they were all conservative Democrats centered around Henry Jackson's Senate office (the Senator from Boeing). He was a rightwing militaristic Democrat, full on supporter of the military industrial complex.

Neocons, long story.

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:34 utc | 509

It is the PCR which introduced the bill at the Duma to recognize both Donbass Republics.

Posted by: Olivier | Apr 10 2022 11:14 utc | 436

What is the PCR? You mean the KPRF?

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:35 utc | 510

Yes, but the commanding officers are ukronazis.

Posted by: Olivier | Apr 10 2022 11:18 utc | 438

The Ukrainian Army itself is doing a lot of evil stuff. We have to stop seeing this as "Ukrainian army nice guys, nationalist Nazi battalions bad guys." They're both bad. And it's been the Ukrainian army massacring Donbass for years. A lot of these horrible atrocities are by the Ukrainian army itself. People in Mariupol say that the Ukrainian Army also committed many atrocities, not just Azov. The army basically ranges from nationalist to Nazi with nothing to the left. These are called "patriots."

However, in Ukraine, there are also "soft supporters" or moderates who are not patriots, especially in the East. At the start of the war, a lot of them were anti-Russia, but I understand that now in Kharkov most of the 25-50 y.o. moderates have now gone anti-Ukraine. They think Bucha was a false flag and they think Kramatorsk was one too. They now think their own government is the biggest risk. So that's a big turnaround.

Besides patriots and moderates, there are antifascists who with Russia all the way. 400 of them have formed a Ukrainian Liberation Army in Kharkiv and are fighting alongside the Russians. The antifascists even in Kharkiv are in the minority. There are passionate patriots in Kharkiv, but they are not common and most of them left the city a long time ago and now reside overseas.

Kharkiv has gotten way more rightwing from 2014-present.

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:47 utc | 511

Posted by: Nebo Sinee | Apr 10 2022 12:16 utc | 444

That's not really your name, is it? That name doesn't make a lot of sense. First name might be Norwegian, but the last name is very rare.

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:59 utc | 512

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:59 utc | 512
That's not really your name, is it? That name doesn't make a lot of sense. First name might be Norwegian, but the last name is very rare.

"Sinee nebo" is "Синее небо" rendered from Cyrillic into Latin characters.

Either way it means "Blue sky" in English.

Posted by: Ranelagh | Apr 10 2022 23:01 utc | 513

What is the PCR? You mean the KPRF?

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:35 utc | 510

Yes, sorry, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

Posted by: Olivier | Apr 10 2022 23:57 utc | 514

The Ukrainian Army itself is doing a lot of evil stuff.

Posted by: Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:47 utc | 511

Of course. But you know the penalty if someone does not follow the orders. Especially when the nazis are commanding. The first soldiers which tried to reach Donetsk were killed from their back. Why do you think the county lost more than 10 millions inhabitants during the last 30 years?

Posted by: Olivier | Apr 11 2022 0:07 utc | 515

Robert Lindsay | Apr 10 2022 21:59 utc | 512

Ranelagh is absolutely right. Sometimes it's hard to come up with a unique name for a mailbox. I'm from Russia. I read your messages about the Trotskyists with interest. The Western slang term you use, trots, has enriched my vocabulary. In my country, the role of Trots in the revolutions of Russia and Germany at the beginning of the last century was central. The Bund, the Jewish workers' party, was the founder of the Russian RSDLP in 1898, the radical part of which later became Lenin's Bolshevik Party. The role of the Jewish working class and the petty bourgeois class in the German revolutions was similar. Trotsky at one time began in the RSDLP as a petty-bourgeois part of it (the Russian name is "Menshevik" in contrast to Lenin's "Bolsheviks"). During the revolution in Russia in 1917, he went over to the Bolsheviks. Perhaps I am stating facts that you already know. Trots, like neocons today, in my opinion, is a destructive tool for Jewish financial capital, which forms the basis of supranational globalists. So it was a century ago. So it is today. It is clear that the interests of the working class have never been in their first place. As well as the interests of Americans or Europeans for neocons today.

Posted by: Nebo Sinee | Apr 11 2022 1:10 utc | 516

A small point. The discussion has comments that the Toscka engine section usually lands before the "warhead" thus suggesting, in this case, an arrival from the southwest. That sounds like information about the original Tochka with a single, dense warhead weighing around a thousand pounds. The Tochka used at Kramatorsk had a cluster munition payload, and not a single warhead. In short range rockets used elsewhere, the nosecone and engine section land "beyond" the impact area of cluster munitions.

Is there any specific information about the hardware dispersion of Tochka missiles with cluster warheads? If the Tochkas behave like their smaller siblings, the debris pattern at the train station would suggest an origin in the north-east.

Identifying the missile by serial number seems problematic since the Russians captured quite a bit of Ukrainian equipment early in the operation. Also, the maps seem to identify areas of Russian "occupation". Actually, Russian columns often advance quite far along roads without "occupying" the mud along side, thus it is possible that Russian units might have penetrated far enough to have fired a Tochka from the south-west.

The Tochkas may have been "obsolete", but reports are that Russia has few reserves of the newest and greatest. I doubt that a field officer would walk away from a functional system just because it wasn't this years' model.

These are the kind of problems that you run into when trying to use "book" data to prove a point.

Posted by: Mike-SMO | Apr 11 2022 1:59 utc | 517

Mike-SMO | Apr 11 2022 1:59 utc | 517

The link to this video was posted back up the thread a bit.
Watch it full screen on a computer and you can see the dispersion and shortly after the last munition detonates the booster can be seen appearing to tumble down. There is quite a few pics of different spent boosters on the net and most appear to have struck tail first though at a angle so the appearance of tumbling could be just because of low definition video or filming through a closed window. Munitions appear to detonate over a period of 14 seconds or so although the bulk of them look to detonate in the first few second of the video.
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1512613047025770496

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 11 2022 2:23 utc | 518

This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stress—overextend and unbalance—Russia’s economy and armed forces and the regime's political standing at home and abroad. Some of the options examined are clearly more promising than others, but any would need to be evaluated in terms of the overall U.S. strategy for dealing with Russia, which neither the report nor this brief has attempted to do. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Posted by: kerry davies | Apr 11 2022 6:21 utc | 519

Rather off topic but a response to some salient posts just now.

My uncle, William Blatchford, was a Fourth Internationalist Trotskyite (that is, an actual follower of Trotsky, belonging to the movement that Trotsky founded in the 1930s when he gave up hope of regaining power in the Soviet Union). He had to flee the country when the far-right National Party took power and introduced the Suppression of Communism Act. Therefore I don’t altogether agree with what’s being said about Trots here.

Trotsky was, obviously, a big supporter of the USSR; he was one of the major forces in the Petrograd coup, he set up and ran the Red Army. He also had most of the ideas which Stalin later used to industrialise the USSR. He was also a vainglorious blowhard and absolutely insufferable, which was one reason why Stalin was able to persuade various other leaders of the Bolshevik movement to help him get rid of Trotsky, after which they were compromised and began fighting among themselves, which enabled Stalin to seize absolute power after which he had them all killed.

Trotsky was always a supporter of the USSR – he claimed that Stalin was a “Bonapartist”, that is a military adventurer who had betrayed the revolution, and therefore Trotsky came up with the idea that the USSR was a “deformed workers’ state”, meaning that it was a socialist state which still deserved to be supported even though it was led by Stalin.

Why Trotskyism became so deformed after Trotsky’s murder is hard to say. James Burnham, for instance, was one of Trotsky’s followers but split with him violently before the murder, declaring that the USSR could not be supported under any circumstances. He went through various mutations (including pro-Stalinism, detailed in Orwell’s essay “Second Thoughts on James Burnham” before settling down as an extreme-right-wing American imperialist propagandist. It’s also true that a lot of other Trotskyites became American neoconservatives. I suspect that a lot of this is to do with being a fanatical, amoral power-worshipper and deciding to change your ideological perspective rather than change your attitude towards the world.

But I admit, nearly forty years back when I was involved in politics, the biggest problem in organising demonstrations in Cape Town was that the Trotskyites were always calling for everyone to boycott the demonstrations because they hadn’t organised them, and then inventing excuses for why they weren’t doing anything themselves. A lot of them later morphed into big-time corporate propagandists, especially for the pharmaceutical industry and big media. So I can understand the exasperation.

Posted by: MFB | Apr 11 2022 9:37 utc | 520

A few weeks ago I had intel that at the time had not been verified about the Azovstal Steel complex being used as a base by the Azov Battalion and that 6-8 floors below the plant, there were biolabs and that people were taken there and experimented on. Witnesses testified that the people taken there did not return.

Now this report by Eva K Bartlett reinforces the fact that not only are there 1000s of Fascists embedded in the plant but that indeed these biolabs do exist!

[Forwarded from Reality Theories, Eva K Bartlett (Eva)] "As you know, a powerful center of resistance in Mariupol remained precisely in the industrial zone, namely at the large Azovstal plant.

According to the first deputy of the DPR, Eduard Basurin, more than three thousand nationalists and the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are hiding there. Also, according to some reports, there are high-ranking NATO military and scientists who were involved in the work of biological laboratories in Ukraine.

The complexity of the assault on Azovstal is that the enterprise has many catacombs and dungeons that shelter Ukrainian Nazis from shelling and bombing. This is a real city within a city: down another six or eight floors.

Eduard Basurin notes that it is impossible to bomb from above, it is necessary to do a sweep underground. The main thing is to find passages and exits to these dungeons, and then wait until they themselves begin to give up.

Therefore, it is inappropriate to talk about the timing when Azovstal will be cleaned up.

Many people ask the question: why is the enterprise not bombed? Experts cite several reasons.

First. There is no point in destroying the infrastructure from above if the whole "heart" is inside, or rather underground. In addition, there are residential buildings nearby, and the ammunition from the aircraft is free-falling. There are high-precision weapons, but once again - the meaning of this is minimal.

Second. If the nationalists are bombed and buried underground, then no one will know about the terrible atrocities of the nationalists on the territory of Donbass. Apparently, there are also biological laboratories in the underground bunkers of the plant, which were carefully concealed. In other words, evidence is needed.

What are the options to smoke the Nazis from the factory? As military correspondents who communicated with our military say: there are ways.

The sea is nearby, there is enough water. Flooding, it's more or less humane. Not immediately, give the opportunity to swim. The rest of the methods do not even want to describe, they are hot and smoky. At this point, let the military chemists decide the issue. Only God save us from basement assaults, - war correspondent Sladkov, who is on the front line, shares his opinion.

Earlier they wrote: The assault on Azovstal is supported by tanks and aircraft: female snipers are still working in Mariupol itself. Now our units have entered the territory of Azovstal, they are supported by tanks and aircraft. According to the first deputy of the DPR, Eduard Basurin, there are still about three thousand militants on the territory of the industrial zone of Mariupol.

Recall that almost all of Mariupol was liberated by the Russian army and allied forces. The industrial zone remains occupied by nationalists. And these are the two most important facilities: the Azovstal plant and the port. The cleanup of the industrial area is proceeding according to plan, and part of the plant has already been recaptured, the Nazis have been driven underground.

Alexander Bastrykin in Donetsk: more than 600 mercenaries fighting on the side of Ukraine were identified. Chairman of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin arrived in Donetsk. He held an operational meeting, at which he stated that Ukrainian security forces had been identified who had committed crimes against the civilian population of Donbass."

https://www.vkpress.ru/life/kak-vykurit-natsikov-iz-katakomb-pochemu-ne-bombyat-azovstal-v-mariupole/?id=145549

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 10:04 utc | 521

Even worse:

[Forwarded from Gonzalo Lira (Gonzalo Lira)] Dude . . .

“Bogdan Boutkevitch: "We don't need to understand the Donbas, we need to understand Ukrainian national interests. Donbas must be exploited as a resource, which it is." "At least 1.5 million people are superfluous". "No matter how cruel it may sound, there is a certain category of people who must be exterminated." From WIKIPEDIA: "According to the interim financial report Hromadske TV was funded in 2013 by the Netherlands Embassy (793,089 Ukrainian hryvnias, -Z-), the US Embassy (399,650 2) and by George Soros' International Renaissance Foundation (247,860).[16] By June 2014 Hromadske TV had received another 558,842a from the Government of Canada, 394,1812 from the Fritt Ord Foundation, 287,898€ from the Embassy of the United States, Kyiv, 207,4022 from an auction organized by 'Dukat' (the Auction House) and 1,875,180a from individual contributors."

https://youtu.be/ICkcyt87Lw0

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 10:14 utc | 522

More on whose war this really is!

[Forwarded from Denazification UA]
[ Video ]
"I thought we were going to be with international brigades, but I ended up facing the Pentagon"

French journalist Régis Le Saumier went to Ukraine following mercenaries from his country and spent eight days there. He told a lot of interesting stories:

"It surprised me (and the volunteers) when we realised that in order to join the ranks of the defending Ukrainians, we needed approval from the Americans. We almost got arrested, an American came up and said: "I'm in charge here; it's me, not the Ukrainians". He even introduced himself. He is a veteran of the Iraq war.

I checked, his mention can be found in a recent issue of Le Figaro. He was rude, at first he wanted to kick us out altogether. He ordered us to take the SIM cards out of our phones. We had to sign a contract until the end of hostilities. In general, the Americans rule - not the US army, of course, but unofficially.

https://t.me/c/1262772134/10084

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 12:58 utc | 523

🇷🇺🇺🇸❗️Lavrov: Russia's special operation in Ukraine is designed to end the US course of world domination.

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 13:13 utc | 524

MFB | Apr 11 2022 9: 37 utc | 520

Yes, of course, one can say that Trotsky was a complex and controversial figure who played a huge role in the events of Russia a century ago. His participation in the destruction of the Russian Empire was at least no less than Lenin's. His decisive participation in the Petrograd coup and the creation of the Red Army was justly noted. His disappointment with the inglorious end of his activities in Russia after his expulsion from the USSR in 1929, which resulted in his memoirs My Life, is understandable. Making history while in power in Russia or eking out a miserable existence as an immigrant are two big differences for a selfish person like Trotsky. But here is what I would like to pay attention to when assessing the role of the personality of Trotsky and many other leaders of the Bolshevik Party, including Kamenev and Zinoviev, who were used by Stalin in the inner-party struggle against Trotsky, and which ultimately led to Stalin's sole rule. The first is that almost all of them were newcomers to Russia and their struggle against tsarism was carried out from within the country. In contrast to them, Stalin worked all the time inside, in the underground, only occasionally leaving Russia, which allowed him to be closer to the ordinary participants in the revolutionary events. These connections were very useful to him in the inner-party struggle later. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the national composition of the leaders of the Petrograd coup and the first government. But the most important thing is not this. This is a question in Trotsky's "permanent revolution". He saw Russia not as a place to build a new stable state, but as a springboard for further export of revolutions to other countries. The fate of Russia itself did not interest him. This, of course, was not accepted by ordinary Russian revolutionaries close to the Russian people. Playing this card, Stalin in 1925 puts forward the thesis of "building socialism in a single country." Ordinary communists and the Russian people are tired of revolutions and civil wars. The theme of world revolution was far from them. They wanted a good life here and today. And in the end, Stalin gave it to Russia.
There is one more thing I would like to draw your attention to. In its essence, Trotskyism is not aimed at creation, the construction of the new. It's a destructive tool. Neocons today is the same destructive tool. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya. Is there a place where the neocons, like their Trotskyist predecessors, have built anything?

Posted by: Nebo Sinee | Apr 11 2022 13:29 utc | 525

MFB | Apr 11 2022 9: 37 utc | 520

Translation problems.
"They were strangers to Russia and their struggle against tsarism was carried out abroad."

Posted by: Nebo Sinee | Apr 11 2022 13:37 utc | 526

A couple of points of speculation.
Mercouris has been putting out impressive analysis on Ukraine. His latest includes a key- and new-- concept in his predicting of the future of Ukraine, citing b, the Saker and Scott Ritter more often these days. He compares the outcome of a "shock and awe" invasion with Russia's more measured, careful one. Shock and awe operations --Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya-- are impressive in the early stages when seen through the lens of the viewers from the invading side. But, resisting fighters disperse and regroup-- Taliban, ISIS, etc-- and the initial victors are eventually vanquished. Mercouris contrasts that with WWII which was a long, grinding war that destroyed the German and Japanese armies. He says the Russian operation is similar to the WWII approach and will eventually be successful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q6QzGLbdHg

Zelensky. I am surprised that he has held up this long and doubled down more and more. He's not like a typical oligarch who would just move his money and operation out. Same with western politicians. I don't see Lindsay Graham, Joe Biden, Ted Cruz, Obama, any of them dying for any cause. all cowards at heart.

My wild guess is that he's high on the fame and some really good drugs and believes that he's well protected by Brit/US body guards who could snatch him out to safety. He is suiciding the Ukraine military & Azov. My wild prediction isn't an original thought but I believe he will not make it through this real life movie/video game he has willingly jumped into.

Posted by: migueljose | Apr 11 2022 13:57 utc | 527

Posted by: migueljose | Apr 11 2022 13:57 utc | 527

"Zelensky. I am surprised that he has held up this long and doubled down more and more. He's not like a typical oligarch who would just move his money and operation out. Same with western politicians. I don't see Lindsay Graham, Joe Biden, Ted Cruz, Obama, any of them dying for any cause. all cowards at heart."

Oh yes he is!!! He's got money stashed away in the Channel Islands! He's a fucking crook just like the rest of those Fascist bastards!

And yes, he is a coke head, I think he's out of skull most of the time judging by his maniacal TV interviews. Somebody made a compilation Zelenesky's interviews showing him sniffing incessantly, nose twitching, constantly playing with his nose. Defender of democracy eh. Yeah right and I'm the ghost of Mother Teresa.

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 14:04 utc | 528

@Thomas

Here I fixed that for you ;)

"One side - America under GW Bush - invaded a sovereign nation and is subjecting its people to senseless brutality. By no means was GW Bush backed into a tight corner such that full scale invasion was the only option."

you are all set

Enjoy the day and Stay safe

Social_Misfit

Posted by: человек | Apr 11 2022 14:56 utc | 529

More on the staged massacre in Bucha, this time from a Turkish report:

[Forwarded from Postovoy]
▪️The Turkish newspaper Aydınlık published (https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/haber/new-york-timesin-bucada-rusyayi-suclayan-uydu-goruntuleri-gercege-uymadi-309597) an article in which it decided not to give in to emotions and objectively examine what actually happened in Buche.

The article analyzed the events of late March and early April and established the following chronology:
🔸 March 30 - Russian Armed Forces units withdrew from Bucha (a day after the talks in Istanbul)
🔸 March 31 - information about the withdrawal of Russian troops was confirmed by the mayor of Bucha and then Ukrainian military and nationalist groups entered the town
🔸 Ukrainian media did not report any dead bodies on the streets or publish pictures of them until April 3
🔸 April 3 - Ukrainian media started claiming that the streets of the city were full of corpses of civilians and mass graves were discovered

As a result, the columnists conclude that the situation in Bucha was staged by the West to increase pressure on Moscow. At the same time, the staging followed a well-established set of rules: first the photos of the so-called massacre were taken, then the Western press made headlines, Zelensky accused Putin of genocide, Western leaders one after another condemned the Russian Federation, imposed sanctions and expelled Russian diplomats. At the same time, Russia, which wanted to prove its non-involvement, was denied this opportunity because of a veto by the UN Security Council (London, for example). Furthermore, statements by Russian diplomats were either silenced by Western publications or presented in a different context.

In addition, Tevfik Kadan, a columnist for the newspaper, claimed that the date of the Maxar Technologies satellite imagery, on the basis of which NYT investigators accused Russia of committing "genocide," had been falsified. Specifically, the NYT journalists claimed that civilians, at least 11 people, were killed three weeks before the Russian forces withdrew, i.e. between March 9 and 11. However, the Maxar satellite was in a completely different location at that time, and overflew the region in question on February 28 and April 1.

Also, the meteorological data from SunCalc (sun angle, shadows etc.) confirm that the NYT satellite image was taken at 11:57 GMT on April 1. That is two days after the Russians left the city. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 14:59 utc | 530

Posted by: Barofsky | Apr 11 2022 14:04 utc | 528

"22"elensky is the real deal, Mr 5 %.

https://ibb.co/kx1YTcr

Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 11 2022 15:26 utc | 531

Wouldn't surprise me. Aydınlık is a formerly leftish publication, indeed Maoist, that has moved to the right, is rumoured to be connected to a wing of the Turkish intelligence service MİT and which espouses a sort of Eurasian ideology.

Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 11 2022 15:32 utc | 532

Wouldn't surprise me. Aydınlık is a formerly leftish publication, indeed Maoist, that has moved to the right, is rumoured to be connected to a wing of the Turkish intelligence service MİT and which espouses a sort of Eurasian ideology.

Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 11 2022 15:32 utc | 533

Professor Andrea Margelletti, President of the Center for International Studies says without any doubt that the missile was launched from the area around Izjum, probably he received intelligence account. Prof. Margelletti statement. According to russians defense officials, it came from the town of Dobropole, which is located southwest of Kramatorsk and has been under the control of Ukrainian forces. RT. I also read that some workers at the station have heard the air defense in action, but I can no longer find the source.

Posted by: Alessandro | Apr 11 2022 15:43 utc | 534

@Thomas
I'll add some further detail gleaned from the MoA site. The ballistic missile has a range of up to 120Km. The rocket engine burns for around 20 seconds and the missile, with its guidance paddles and fins continues on a ballistic trajectory until the final phase begins. At that point, the guidance system alters the trajectory into a near vertical dive, at which point separation occurs by an explosive charge. The warhead is 500 Kg and is accelerated downwards. The motor and propellant casing etc, which I estimate at up to 500Kg, decelerates, begins to tumble, loses velocity rapidly and lands motor first, leaving a small crater in soft earth. The warhead separates its sub-munitions 20 m above ground, detonating on contact with the ground, and damaging anything within a 150m radius.

Absent hard contradictory evidence, I'll go with b's analysis

Posted by: richarda | Apr 11 2022 20:13 utc | 535

richarda 535
Nowhere is there a source that says the booster detaches. Some say it is bolted to the warhead. Do you have a source that says it is not bolted to the warhead? Link please.

Another problem with B's analysis, based on your own info, is that if the missile is coming staring down (90 degrees) when/if the booster separates, then there is no way to draw a line from the blast(s) to the booster and infer the source of origin/launch. I.e. the booster is coming straight down and would just bounce in any random direction on the ground.

In other words, B would be correct *if* the booster separated prior to the explosion of the warhead AND if the missile was flying at something significantly less than 90 degrees when the separation occurred. I see no sources stating either of those circumstances being how the missile actually works. I do have sources, presumably knowledgeable, stating that B doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground and pretty much made up the facts used in his 'analysis". I'd be happy to have that line of thinking proven wrong. Links to sources would help.

Posted by: Eric Newhill | Apr 11 2022 20:30 utc | 536

@536 Eric Newhill.

Have a look here: http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-191.html

The rocket does not plunge down at an angle of 90 degrees.
" As part of the non-contact fuze device of the 9E118 warhead, there is a radio sensor that, at an altitude of 450 m (+-50 m), gives the command to turn the missile into a dive at an angle of 80 degrees. (+-5 degrees)"

So, no, not vertical though nearly so.

Assuming that the warhead is the cluster warhead 9N123K then the warhead bursting charge is fired at over 2km height over target.
"turning to the target, detonating the central charge and opening the warhead is initiated by the 9E326 radio sensor at an altitude of 2250 m."

At that point the cluster submunitions continue on to the target but the (now no longer aerodynamic) rocket stage immediately begins to tumble and simply falls from the sky.

I can see no way that this could happen and the rocket stage can continue on BEYOND the point of explosion of the cluster submunitions: the rocket has long since ceased firing, the bursting charge will not be imparting any further thrust on the it, and having lost any aerodynamic lift that rocket stage simply going to fall out of the sky and land short of the target.

Since all this is happening at an angle of 75-85 degrees then the rocket won't fall FAR short of the target, but it will fall short.

I'd say 60-100 metres short sounds about right.

I'm not saying that you could draw a straight line through the target area and the rocket stage to determine the flight path. That would be foolish.

But I am suggesting that you could draw a straight line at 90 degrees to that, and that determines the hemisphere where the missile could have been fired from, and also the reciprocal hemisphere where the missile could not have been fired from.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 12 2022 1:24 utc | 537

Interresting read but follows the "Kremlin" story nicely. However it makes to major assumptions that can be far from truth. a) The russians have decommisioned the Tochka, but that doesn't mean they suddenly disappeared into thin air. Looking at the equipment used sofar for which they seemed to have emtied depots of older material (Like the T72 tanks which are no match to anti-tank granates, unlike the T90 en the T14). Also they were very likely present in the Donbass so pro-russian groups may have them.
b) There is no guarantee that the part will be in line with the explosion. Even stronger, it is very likely put out of its trajectory by the blast. Looking at the distance from the blast (60mtrs) the two parts were either very close, or the engine is diverted. Which the speed a missile is going, 60mtrs is in the area of 1-200ths of milliseconds from the load. It simply has no time to reach the ground before the blast occurs. It is even possible that it is passed over the blast due to the shockwave pushhing it up from the ground, ending up on the other side from where it came from. As you may have noticed the NYT did you conclude a direction from the similar picture, simply because you can't.
c) De text written on it is odd, if it came from Ukraine. As I know some russian it often wrongely translated as "for the children" and assume it means "beacause of the childeren", indicating it may be an Ukrainian misfire. The first word "Za" however indicates a movement. It may be better translated as "towards the childeren" or "gift for Children".

So I'm afraind I have to disagree with your conclusion, from the data provided you can not conclude where the rocket came from

Posted by: Fred | Apr 12 2022 9:11 utc | 538

"There is no guarantee that the part will be in line with the explosion. Even stronger, it is very likely put out of its trajectory by the blast. Looking at the distance from the blast (60mtrs) the two parts were either very close, or the engine is diverted. Which the speed a missile is going, 60mtrs is in the area of 1-200ths of milliseconds from the load. It simply has no time to reach the ground before the blast occurs."

There are a lot of mistakes in that post, Fred.

The core issue is whether - or not - the spent rocket stage can land *past* the point of impact of the cluster munitions.

"There is no guarantee that the part will be in line with the explosion."

At the point at which the nose cone blows open to release the sub-munitions the rocket stage (which, remember, has long since ceased to provide thrust) will lost its streamlining, and will tumble. And, yes, that tumbling could cause it to deviate from its path. But that can't make the rocket stage go FURTHER than the submunitions, it can only make the rocket stage pull up SHORT of the target, though not necessarily in a straight line along the original flight path.

Think about it: no additional thrust has been imparted on the rocket, no additional lifting body springs out like wings, nothing that can make it go further.

"Even stronger, it is very likely put out of its trajectory by the blast."

True enough, and I think it is a fool's errand to draw a line from the center of the cluster through the point of impact of the rocket stage (which, of course, is only 60m away) and claim that this designates the path of the missile. That's ludicrous. But it does describe the limit of the possible i.e. if the rocket stage landed "west of the munitions" then the rocket came from a westerly direction.

"Looking at the distance from the blast (60mtrs) the two parts were either very close, or the engine is diverted."

The Tochka-U makes its final dive at a 80 degree angle (in the HE version the payload is actually tilted at 10 degrees inside the nose cone to take that into account). In the cluster munition version the submunitions are released at 2200m height, and that bursting of the nose cone will cause the spent rocket stage to tumble. It will lose speed VERY rapidly and essentially fall out of the sky. I haven't done the maths, but it seems to me very reasonable that the result will be that the rocket motor will fall to the ground 50-100m short of where the submunitions hit.

"Which the speed a missile is going, 60mtrs is in the area of 1-200ths of milliseconds from the load."

Again, this needs to be pointed out: when the nose cone splits open to release the submunitions those bomblets will continue on the same path at the same speed (they are streamlined) but the rocket stage will have lost all aerodynamic streamlining and will RAPIDLY lose speed at it tumbles.

"It simply has no time to reach the ground before the blast occurs. It is even possible that it is passed over the blast due to the shockwave pushhing it up from the ground, ending up on the other side from where it came from."

In the video of the Ukrainian Tochka-U attack on the port of Berdiansk it can be seen that the cluster munitions impact the target zone, and then the rocket stage hits the ground about five seconds later.

Clearly the rocket stage is significantly slowed following the release of the submunitions, and I simply fail to see how that can make the rocket stage go FURTHER than the submunitions that are released from it.

And, so sorry, there is no disputing that this was a cluster warhead, there simply isn't going to be a "blast due to the shockwave" capable of pushing anything "up from the ground".

I mean, honestly, look at the video taken at the train station: LUGGAGE still remained upright, and if they weren't "blasted over" then a rocket stage isn't going to be either.

The physics make it impossible for the rocket stage to land PAST the point of impact of the cluster munitions. Without any source of addition thrust or additional lift (and neither is present) the loss of streamlining resulting from the bursting open of the warhead to release the submunitions is going to result in the rocket stage landing short of the blast zone.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 12 2022 12:36 utc | 539

"a) The russians have decommisioned the Tochka, but that doesn't mean they suddenly disappeared into thin air. Looking at the equipment used sofar for which they seemed to have emtied depots of older material (Like the T72 tanks which are no match to anti-tank granates, unlike the T90 en the T14). Also they were very likely present in the Donbass so pro-russian groups may have them."

I actually agree with your claim that the Russians could have pulled older missiles out of mothballs. It is perfectly possible, since these are solid-fuel missiles and, therefore, have a reasonable shelf-life.

But there is the rub: the rocket stage still had its serial number and that has been recorded by reporters on the scene.
That serial number can be compared with that of other Tochka missiles that were definitively fired by Ukrainians forces against Donetsk.

And what do we find?
1) the serial number of the Tochka-U that hit Kramatorsk: Ш91579
2) serial number of a UKR Tochka-U that was used in 2015: Ш91566
3) serial number of another UKR Tochka that was used in 2015: Ш91565

Not definitive, perhaps. But very, very indicative.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 12 2022 12:44 utc | 540

Yeah Right,
The rocket still has forward momentum, doesn't it?

Also, you have not considered that the cluster bomblets have streams that slow their descent over the target. Way too many variable involved. I do not see how B's or your analysis approach can be considered valid. Under those conditions, 60 - 100 meters is well within any margin of error. The missile could have come from anywhere.

That said, I reject the Western narrative that Russians are deliberately killing civilians. If I had to bet on it, I'd put my money on UKR firing the missile, but it's not a good bet. Not one I would voluntarily make.

Posted by: Eric Newhill | Apr 12 2022 18:03 utc | 541

"The rocket still has forward momentum, doesn't it?"

Momentum is a product of mass and velocity. The moment that the streamlined warhead is removed via the bursting charge then the rocket stage tumbles, and air resistance then increases massively. Is that not correct?

A massive increase in air resistance slows the rocket, and.... the rocket's momentum is a product of mass and velocity.

Momentum therefore drops away quickly for the rocket stage. Momentum for the rocket falls away far faster than the submunitions (the streamers prevent the bomblets from tumbling since the contact-fuse is at the bottom. They are not there to slow the bomblet's descent).

Again, the rocket stage falls short of the target, it does not overshoot the target. Since the dive is steep then the distance between where the submunitions land and where the rocket lands will not be great (60m is perfectly reasonable), but it will always occur in that order: first the submunitions land *here*, and shortly after the rocket stage hits the ground 50-100m short of that location.

I'm sorry if that offends you, but it happens to be true.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 12 2022 21:35 utc | 542

If you did your homework you would have known that the news about the serial number news was fake

https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-serial-number-confirms-kramatorsk-train-station-hit-by-ukrainian-tochka-u-missile/

The russian even went so far that they made a fake bbc reportage claiming it was Ukrainian

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-bbc-report-blame-ukraine-kramatorsk-station-bombing-1697697

This is how russians work, we know all about it because of MH17: Create a lot of false information so the truth is drowned by it and nobody knows what to believe anymore. It is not something new, they use our freedom of speech against us

my example of over the blast was a little exageration, but a possible margin of error is 90degrees in any direction. Which means it could have come from anywhere...Which seems to match other observations. Even if a 45 degree angle is used, still there is russian controlled area there.

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1512425868815179778/photo/1

Posted by: Fred | Apr 13 2022 20:34 utc | 543

Someone checked how far it is from front to train station? Or from Donetsk. Suggest try using Google maps.

Posted by: mika | Apr 14 2022 0:18 utc | 544

"Momentum is a product of mass and velocity. "
Agree.
Now check what happens, when the ammunition detaches from the booster
Youtube M39 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with cluster ammunition in-flight vdeo
The booster dos not land short of the target, but long of the target, because the drag on the individual bomblets makes them to slow down much faster than the booster.
Hence, launch site is rather to be found in the Russian controlled area (probably coming from north-east of Kramatorsk).

Posted by: Radek | Apr 14 2022 9:03 utc | 545

@543 Fred "If you did your homework you would have known that the news about the serial number news was fake"

Your homework is quite embarrassingly amateurish, Fred.

Take this line: "However, this serial number – Ш91579 – is a factory marking and does not in any way identify the missile as belonging to the Ukrainian military."

Well, du'oh, of course the stenciled serial number is a factory marking. All serial numbers applied to all goods are applied in the factory.

"This numeration was applied to all rocket shells at the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a machine and ballistic missile factory in the Volga federal district that mass produced missiles in the Soviet era, which were then transported to different countries, from Kazakhstan, to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine."

Indeed true, but altogether irrelevent.

Back to the drawing board:
1) the serial number of the Tochka-U that hit Kramatorsk: Ш91579
2) serial number of a UKR Tochka-U that was used in 2015: Ш91566
3) serial number of another UKR Tochka that was used in 2015: Ш91565

Notice the sequence. THEY ARE FROM THE SAME FACTORY BATCH. And the last two were fired by the Ukrainians toward Donetsk.

As I said in my post: "Not definitive, perhaps. But very, very indicative."

From your apologia:
"Currently eight countries possess the Tochka U short range ballistic missiles. Following the logic of the Russian media, a missile with similar markings could have been launched with the same degree of probability, from Belarus, for example."

Except.... two missile from the same sequence - and hence from the same manufacturing batch - were fire *by* Ukraine *against* Donetsk. Those missiles were not fired by Belarus, "for example", nor from the other six possible candidates.

They. Were. Fired. By. Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian military reported that on April 8 in the northern Chernihiv region, they had shot down a Tochka U missile Russia launched from Belarus. The missile had Ш89 markings. After analyzing dozens of videos and photographs from Syria, StopFake factcheckers found that missiles from the same Ш89 series were used by Bashar al-Assad’s troops against Syria’s civilian population."

Ho-hum. There are going to be ninety-nine missiles in the "Ш89 series". I'm pointing to a much tighter spread of serial numbers and I am pointing out - correctly - that such a tight spread of serial numbers is "Not definitive, perhaps. But very, very indicative."

Perhaps try again. I'll wait.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 14 2022 13:17 utc | 546

@545 Radek "Now check what happens, when the ammunition detaches from the booster"

I have indeed checked the video, and note that the missile purposely spins just prior to the release of the cluster munitions.

Didn't you see that? Because it's pretty obvious.

"The booster dos not land short of the target, but long of the target, because the drag on the individual bomblets makes them to slow down much faster than the booster."

No, the bomblets land short of the booster because on that missile THEY ARE DELIBERATELY EJECTED AT RIGHT ANGLES TO THE FLIGHT PATH OF THE MISSILE.

F**k me, some people are stupid.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 14 2022 13:21 utc | 547

All you posters are smarter, far more informed and detailed oriented than I'll ever be. Therefore I'd be a fool to enter into this intriguing debate/discussion. So therefore I'll just stick to my leading philosophy which comforts me in this centuries-spanning time of raging conflicts:
1. Earth is a war planet with humanly incalculable karmic debt.
2. We're all here to learn and release some of this karma on both personal and collective levels.
3. It's all temporary. It is what it is. Work to find your own peace.

Posted by: Vicki | Apr 15 2022 17:45 utc | 548

@547
"No, the bomblets land short of the booster because on that missile THEY ARE DELIBERATELY EJECTED AT RIGHT ANGLES TO THE FLIGHT PATH OF THE MISSILE"

Completely agree. So the line created is
Launch site, target (covered by bomblets) and the booster ...i.e. fired from RUS territory.

Happy Easter

Posted by: Radek | Apr 17 2022 9:34 utc | 549

@Radek #549:

Launch site, target (covered by bomblets) and the booster ...i.e. fired from RUS territory.

1. The behaviour of ATACMS does not prove anything about the behaviour of Tochka-U. An analysis of one of the instances of use of Tochka-U showed that the booster landed 400 m to the right of the target (not long of the target as in your example of ATACMS).

2. Even if Tochka-U behaved like ATACMS—which it doesn’t—there is still enough territory to the north-west of Kramatorsk for the missile to have been launched by the Ukraine, for example, from Seversk (40 km away) or from Lisichansk (65 km away).

3. Most importantly, the Kramatorsk missile has a serial number from the same batch as other Tochka-U missiles fired by the Ukraine earlier, as was explained to you by poster “Yeah, Right” in comment #546:

1) the serial number of the Tochka-U that hit Kramatorsk: Ш91579
2) serial number of a UKR Tochka-U that was used in 2015: Ш91566
3) serial number of another UKR Tochka that was used in 2015: Ш91565

The fact that you’re ignoring this tells me that you’re not really interested in the truth.

Posted by: S | Apr 17 2022 10:12 utc | 550

"Still, I do believe that facts matter at least in the long term and that there is a historic value in documenting them." It's also quite nice for the relatives to know who killed their loved ones, don't you think? I believe that has some value, historic or otherwise...

Posted by: Childe Rolande | Apr 18 2022 9:31 utc | 551

@549 Radek "Completely agree. So the line created is
Launch site, target (covered by bomblets) and the booster ...i.e. fired from RUS territory."

Dude, nobody can be that stupid. Not without trying very, very hard.

You are taking the behavior of a completely different weapon manufactured by a totally different country and claimed that this is evidence for how ALL ballistic missiles with cluster warheads behave.

I..... honestly, I am shaking my head at this point at the stupidity of it all.

Here, a simple fact: with ballistic missiles when the warhead separates from the rocket body the part that moves off the ballistic path will land sort of the part that continues along the ballistic path.

Simple physics: the part that deviates from the ballistic path loses energy relative to the part that does not, and since the former has no way of regaining that lost energy it will fall short of the latter.

As I say, simple physics.

With the M39 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) that you link to the warhead spins before releasing the cluster submunitions.

That has two effects: the submunitions are flung at right angles to the flight path, and the rocket stage is stabilized by the spin to prevent it tumbling off the ballistic path.

So with the ATACMS the rocket stage lands AFTER the warheads.

With the Tochka-U the rocket stage is not set spinning when the burst charge splits open the nose cone.

This has two effects: the submunitions continue along the flight path, and the rocket stage immediately tumbles.

So with the Tochka-U the rocket stage falls out of the sky SHORT of the warheads.

Two different designs. Two characteristic patterns of behavior.

You and I both know that to be true, so why do you insult both our intelligence?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 18 2022 9:51 utc | 552

Not sure about the doesn't leave a crater part it may depend on what type of warhead its loaded with, I hear they can be nuclear too but Ukraine doesn't have those warheads thankfully. Check this guy, Patrick Lancaster's site: youtube.com/watch?v=7qgRqYtuHC8

Posted by: Adam Danischewski | Apr 20 2022 6:06 utc | 553