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More Evidence That Ukraine Fired The Missile Which Killed Dozens In Kramatorsk
This is a follow on to yesterday's Ukrainian Tochka-U missile strike on the Kramatorsk railway station. Russia no longer has Tochka missiles (search for Tochka in the pdf) while the Ukraine, Belarus and several other states still use them.
There is now additional evidence that the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces. The facts do not matter in 'western' media who stick to whatever story they are told to produce. Still, I do believe that facts matter at least in the long term and that there is a historic value in documenting them.
The Tochka-U is a tactical missile with a maximum range of some 120 kilometer. It is typically fired from a transporter, erector, launcher vehicle (TEL) with little need of preparations.
The TEL vehicle for the Tochka is a six wheeled BAZ 5921 /5922. These are amphibious floating hull chassis. The picture below shows a BAZ TEL in parade mode with a Tochka missile slightly erected. In the normal transport mode the missile lies horizontally under a protective roof.
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There were several claims of such vehicles being seen in Belarus or with Russian forces in Ukraine. But not every six wheeled BAZ vehicle can be said to be a Tochka missile TEL or Tochka transporter. There are various look alike variants of the vehicle with radar or communication equipment or simply used as transporters or ferries for all kind of goods.
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The Tochka missile, below in a firing position, consists of a rocket engine, four fins and grids to direct its course, a solid fuel compartment and a warhead at its front. A complete missile weighs about 2,000 kilogram.
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There are various warhead types available which weigh about 500 kilogram each.
The warhead which was used in Kramatorsk is a fragmentation one with 20 sub-munitions (gray) each with some 7.5 kilogram of explosives enclosed in a metal hull.
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Over the target area these sub-munitions get expelled and explode while still in the air and each one creates some 800 fragments. The warhead thus leaves no hole in the ground but expels a huge number of deadly metal fragments at high speed over a relative large area. The Tochka missiles are not very precise. They have a circular error probability (CEP) of some 150 meters. They are so called area weapons to be used against concentrations of infantry or unarmored vehicles.
After being fired the rocket engine propels the warhead towards is destination. Shortly before the impact the warhead separates from the booster section and continues its path while the rocket engine shuts down. Having lost its thrust and aerodynamic tip the relative heavy booster section will then tumble to the ground. If everything works as designed the booster section always falls short of the warhead section.
Which brings us to the scene in Kramatorsk. Several pictures from the scene show the booster section of the missile.
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The place where it landed was geo-located as being near a parking space some 60 meter west-southwest of the railway station. Here is the Google maps view of the railway station area. The warhead explosions happened on the east side of the station over the departure platform.
The location of the booster debris and where the explosion happened allows one to point out the trajectory from where the missile was fired. I have checked the locations depicted below and found them to be correct.
North is to the top. The station is encircled and the point is where the booster section landed. The arrow shows the trajectory the missile must have taken.
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Oh, the map is annotated in Russian and you don't trust Russian sources? Well, here is the New York Times posting a similar map.
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Here is map from Liveuamap depicting the current front lines in Ukraine. Kramatorsk is marked in yellow.
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Note that there are no Russian or Russia-aligned forces west-southwest of Kramatorsk within the 120 km maximum range of a Tochka missile. The missile must have been fired by Ukrainian forces.
Unsurprisingly the Russian military has come to the same conclusion:
An analysis of the engagement radius of the warhead, as well as the characteristic position of Tochka-U missile's tail section, clearly confirm that it was launched from a south-western direction away from Kramatorsk.
According to intelligence reports, one of the divisions of the 19th Missile Brigade armed with Tochka-U missile systems at the time of the strike on Kramatorsk was located near Dobropol'e in Donetsk Region, 45 km south-west of Kramatorsk.
This area is still under the full control of the Ukrainian military grouping troops in Donbass.
The publicly available evidence shows that the Ukrainian military must have fired the missile that killed some 50 Ukrainian civilians in Kramatorsk.
The only purpose of the attack I can think of was to create propaganda that, when distributed as 'Russian attack' through 'western' media, will create more military support for Ukraine.
Everyone who urges to give more arms to the Ukraine or who eggs it on to continue this war is guilty of creating impetus for more incidents like the one seen in Kramatorsk.
I really hope I’m not going to be struck by lightning for this. While writing a comment at the end of the previous thread, I came across an article on a Catholic Journal I haphazardly found for the topic of my comment addressing Tom_12 and Nebo Sinee’s discussion on the lost library of Ivan the Terrible. In that Journal an article caught the corner of my eye.
Naturally, it was unavoidable that I explore it, since it had to do with Zelensky extending an invitation to Pope Francis to visit Ukraine. The media asked the Pope whether he would accept the invitation, and he replied that it’s not off the table.
I want to expand on this comment, later, as I don’t have the time now. (Yikes! I’m proofing now and wondering if you will even want the elaboration, although I’m leaving some critical stuff out. Maybe I should leave it to your own critical thinking and share only this.)
The Pope cannot, should not, and I sincerely hope will not visit Ukraine any time in the near future. The optics and the message might appear transcendent, and result in a spectacular propaganda coup, but the play will appear jarring almost depraved in the sense of marrying the sacred with the profane to abort historical change in the making. There are several reasons for this objection that I can’t get into now, the least of which is, and it’s not that insignificant; that this is a clear manipulation on the part of Zelensky and it would be beneath the integrity, dignity and eminence of his office as Pope of the Church of Rome to allow himself to be used as a political pawn and be swept into a theater of deception and hegemonic, Empire machination.
I hope I can elaborate later on other reasons, but I’ll end for now with this relevant excerpt from a comment on the previous thread from yet another intriguing, excellent discussion I came across, but did not feel informed enough to contribute to. Especially note my emphasis.
I recall reading that Marx was critical of the role of the main religions in keeping the working class suppressed and asleep, but I am not aware of him saying there was no place for religion or spirituality. ”
I remember reading his answer to one question about socialism, that he refused to “write the cookbooks of the future”. I think he might very similarly say he’d refuse to write the spiritual inspirations or poetry of the future as well.
Native American author Vine Deloria once said, “Religion is for those who are afraid of Hell. Spirituality is for those who have been there and back.” Human history seems to me to be that path, from ancient classless humanity to future classless humanity.
Now to deal with this Hell business…
Posted by: Vintage Red | Apr 9 2022 7:14 utc | 393
You probably won’t recall that I wrote a comment at the start of the SMO, that destiny/fate is at play in all this. If the Universe or God or gods, whatever you believe in, has determined that it must rain like hell, then why would the Pope have the power to intervene?
I’d like to ask the Pope what he would rather do: Intervene to maybe end a war and suffering, or allow for evolutionary change, when he can’t have both?
Can you believe that God allowed 6 Million Jews and over 20 Million Russians to be killed in WWII?
If I’m not mistaken the Pope believes in just and unjust wars. Does he also believe that injustice is an integral part of Destiny/Fate and the evolution of mankind?
Some might call all this blasphemy. In my defense against a lightening rod from above, I’m going to end for now with this quote I treasure from George Bernard Shaw: All great truths begin as blasphemies.
Can’t I aspire with my own modest blasphemy?
Okay, bring on my punishment. That’s what I whispered to myself the day I stood in front of a class, shaking all over, and admitted that I felt compassion for the monster. After my presentation, the professor, I was surprised to read later, wrote this note on one of my papers: I really look forward to having you in another class. Regrettably, that never happened.
So before this goes into stream of consciousness territory, remember Melania’s raincoat advertising: I really don’t care. Do you? Well, I don’t go for advertising slogans, but even with Papal intervention looming, and in the milieu of the wrath of heaven and earth, my return would be so much riskier: I believe (Russia)…do you?
Ironically, we just might need a raincoat too, because the world is on fire, so…
Make it rain!
Posted by: Circe | Apr 9 2022 22:23 utc | 281
Re: And if you can instruct me on how to save Youtube videos it would be greatly appreciated.
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1) There is a site there, sFrom.net – save from network – it used to also provide good programs, but no more. Today their programs (including browser extensions) are riddled with hidden trojans to earn their money on your computer.
However the site itself is still good, albeit limited. You just add it to the site you wanted to download video from.
Strong point – you do not have to install anything, you just download it in your browser. On any computer out there, without any preparation.
Say, you want a video from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8A9pOhxYPo
You edit the Address Bar of your browser and prefix it with sfrom.net like this:
https://sfrom.net/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8A9pOhxYPo
or like this
https://sfrom.net/www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8A9pOhxYPo
or like this
sfrom.net/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8A9pOhxYPo
or like this
sfrom.net/www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8A9pOhxYPo
You hit Enter key – and you have a page for choosing a format and downloading the video. Without anything installed.
Well, some interesting formats, like most hi-res or sound wiuthout video, would not be allowed. But for basic formats it works.
And on many sites besides YouTube too.
The key thing, again, is never installing programs from there, walking between those offers and only downloading the video.
2) There was a FreeMake Video Converter/Downloader
The interface makes it VERY simple to use.
The caveats though, free version adds advertisement water-mark and it has no “just download, do not change anything” option. It de-compresses video and then re-compresses it on the computer (afterall it has to add that commercial mark into it!). It is somewhat slow and – because consumer multimedia uses lossy compressions — it somewhat degrades quality.
Frankly, i loved that program a lot for a short time it was truly free. Ease of use was something. But no more.
3) there is http://jDownloader.org – it was created as a multitool to doanload files from rapidshare and such. Especially big archives split to many small parts. So the user interface is not straightforward.
But if you can get into its logic – carved for a rather different usage scenarios – it is a very versatile tool.
A nice video tutorial – just don’t use their download links! – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xnzi1bv7ncw
You can start with feeding just a web page address URL into its web scraper panel, it would hopefully parse through it and find all the links to videos, music, files, etc. Sometimes there would be files you did not think there are, as there was no VISIBLE links, but ones hidden.
Then you would have to select files/videos you got interested in, and schedule them to download (there would be a button, but personally i prefer right-click menu). They would go to “Packages” panel.
“Packages” in jDownloader were meant to have different sources of the same file/archive. Like when a same file was uploaded to RapidShare, to DepositFiles, to iFolder, etc – file was the same, but file hosts were different. So the program could download the same file from multiplt hosts at once.
For videos though, “Packages” mean a bit different things – a selection of formats. Different resolutions, different compression, audio without video otr video without sound. Sounds a bit too techy….
OTOH you clearly see what are there ready formats, that you can just download keeping original quality.
You select one or few formats (personally i often opt for audio-without-video for music), and click to “start downloading” them.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 9 2022 22:56 utc | 297
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