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A Recap Of The War In Ukraine – by Gonzalo Lira
Gonzalo Lira just delivered a decent recap of the war in Ukraine.
Gonzalo Lira @GonzaloLira1968 – 10:28 UTC · Apr 26, 2022
Quick recap for those who haven't followed what's been going on in Ukraine but want to understand: 02/24: The Russians invaded from the south, south-east, east and north, in a lightning campaign. The Russians invaded with 190K troops—against 250K combat troops from Ukraine.
The RF put 30K troops near Kiev—nowhere near enough to capture the city—but enough to pin down some 100K AFU defenders. The RF also launched several axes of attack, with reinforcements on standby (including a famed 40km long tank column), to see where they might be needed.
Crucially—the Russian's blitz on several axes pre-empted an imminent UKRAINIAN blitzkrieg. The AFU had been about to invade the Donbas. This was the immediate motivation for Russia's invasion: To beat them to the punch and scuttle Ukraine's imminent invasion—which they did.
Also, by attacking from the north and south, the Russians disrupted weapons supply chain from NATO. Had the RF only attacked in the east to prevent the AFU invasion of Donbas, there would have been an open corridor for resupply from the West. Threatening Kiev stopped that.
So the main AFU army was left stranded in east Ukraine, with the rest of the Ukr. forces isolated and pinned down—with no easy resupply from the West. The RF then went about hitting AFU command/control and resupply links, further isolating and immobilizing Ukrainian forces.
The Russians soon nominally controlled land the size of the UK in Ukraine—but it was a tenuous control. The south of Ukraine was more fully in Russia's grip. The AFU around Kherson simply scattered. Mariupol became a clear battleground, as did the Donbas proper.
What the Russians initially wanted was to:
- Short-circuit the imminent Donbas invasion – which they did.
- Scare the Zelensky regime into negotiating a political settlement – which they failed to do.
Kiev had no intention of negotiating a ceasefire because of orders given to them from Washington: “Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!” Also, the Neo-Nazi goons around Zelensky threatened him if he negotiated and surrendered because they are terrified of the Russians.
So Zelensky launched a massive PR and propaganda campaign, primarily to motivate AFU forces to fight to the death. Myths were created (Ghost of Kiev), false flags were carried out (Bucha, Kramatorsk) and relentless media stories were flogged relentlessly.
The Russians kept negotiating and trying to NOT destroy Ukraine infrastructure. In fact at first they were even trying to minimize AFU casualties. The evidence for this is overwhelming: The RF did not hit civilian infrastructure – water, electric, phone, transportation. They did not hit AFU barracks, command centers, government buildings, etc.
The Russians' initial priority was for a *negotiated settlement*. But by late March, they realized this was impossible.
This is why the RF withdrew from Kiev. There was no sense putting men near the city when they were not doing what they were supposed to do – putting political pressure on the Zelensky regime to negotiate. This withdrawal was claimed as a “victory” in the “Battle of Kiev”! lmao
Starting in late March, the Russians pulled back and solidified their control over the area they had captured, ceding to the AFU areas that were either pointless to or potentially too costly to control. The Ukraine propaganda machine called all these pull- backs “victories”.
There was still a glimmer that the war might end in a negotiated settlement but that ended in early April. After the Istanbul talks of 3/30, the Ukraine side gingerly agreed to some compromises but within a week publicly disavowed those concessions.
That's when the Russians realized the Zelensky regime was agreement-incapable: Their Washington masters, Victoria Nuland and Anthony Blinken in particular, wouldn't allow a peace. They want this war to sap Russia dry. It is a classic proxy war and Ukraine will pay the price.
Something else the Russians realized: Sanctions. They hurt but Russia bounced back with remarkable speed. They didn't really hurt that bad. But the theft of Russia's $300 billion in foreign reserves by the West DID hurt – badly. The Russians realized they were in a total war with the West and since their foreign reserves were lost forever (likely to be pilfered by corrupt Western politicos), the Russians now have nothing left to lose. By stealing their reserves, the West lost all power over Russia.
This has sealed Ukraine's fate: The Russians now have no incentive to give up what they have conquered. It has cost them too much in terms of men and treasure. And they know that they can't negotiate a ceasefire. The Zelensky regime will simply break it later.
Which means:
The Russians intend to conquer and permanently annex all the south and east of Ukraine. This is why their strategy on the battlefield has dramatically shifted: Now they are carrying out a slow, methodical grinding down and destruction of the AFU.
The war in the first 30 days was speed, feints, nominally capturing vast swathes of Ukraine territory, with the aim of pressuring the Zelensky regime into a negotiated settlement. But the West's total financial and political break with Russia means they have nothing to lose. And they have a lot to gain: The Donbas is mineral rich, the really productive farmlands of Ukraine are in the east and south, Kharkov is a major industrial city, the Sea of Azov has untold natural gas reserves.
And besides – the people love them. Why would the Russians now give up this hard-won prize?
And they *have* won – make no mistake. Ask any military man who is not a system pig, he'll tell you: There is no way for the AFU to retake their country. They have no armor, no air defense, no fuel, no comms – it's over.
The great tragedy is that so many THOUSANDS of young men will die, and die NEEDLESSLY!!, in order to postpone the inevitable. These brave boys will have fought so valiantly – and died so young, so cruelly -because of the evil of the Zelensky regime.
That's the hard truth.
And in the end, this will be the map that will remain—a bitter image of Ukraine's future. Russia will pour billions into their newly acquired territory. It will prosper and flourish. But the rump-state of Ukraine will be left poor, destroyed, forgotten.
A tragedy.
bigger
I concur with the above except for two minor detail. The move on Kiev was not intended to hinder resupply to Ukrainian troops in Donbas but to 'fix' potential reinforcement around the capital. That enabled Russian troops to open the corridor from Crimea to the Russian boarder as well as to cross the Dnieper in the south and to take Kherson. Those were the most important moves for the further development of the war.
I also do not believe that Russia will 'annex' the areas it is liberating from fascist control. Once librated the people in those areas will vote on becoming independent from Ukraine and the various regions, Donbas, Luhansk, Kherson, Odessa, will form states that will become part of the Federal Republic of Novorossia.
That country will be recognized and supported by Russia and its allies.
Finally, I was able to get through to the Kremlin’s transcript of the Putin/Guterres meeting; however, the transcript appears incomplete. Yet, there’s more than enough to show the positions of Putin and Guterres. IMO, this fits into the topic of this thread, so I’ll post the current transcript content. There’s a video at the top of the page, but it doesn’t seem to work at the moment. Yes, the site’s very slow as the West doesn’t want anyone to know what transpired.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Secretary General,
I am very glad to see you.
Russia, as one of the founding members of the United Nations and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has always supported this universal organisation. We believe that it is not just universal, but unique in its kind: there is no other such organization in the international community. And we strongly support the principles on which it is based, we intend to do this in the future.
For us, the maxims of some of our colleagues sound somewhat strange when they talk about a world based on rules. We believe that the basic rule is the Charter of the United Nations and other documents adopted by this organization, and not some papers written by someone for themselves or to ensure their interests.
We are also surprised to see some of the statements of our colleagues that someone in the world is exclusive or claims exclusive rights, because the Charter of the United Nations states that all participants in international communication are equal to each other, regardless of their power, size and geographical location. I think it’s akin to what we have written and said in the Bible: all people there are equal. Surely we will find the same thing in the Quran and in the Torah. All people are equal before the Lord. Therefore, it sounds very strange to think that someone claims some kind of exclusivity. Well, we live in a complex world, so we proceed from the fact that there is what really is, we are ready to work with everyone.
Of course, the UN was created at one time to resolve acute crises, it experienced different periods of its development, and as recently as a few years ago, we heard that it was outdated, that it was no longer needed. This happened in those moments when it prevented someone from achieving their goals in the international arena. We have always said that there is no such universal organization as the UN, and we should cherish the structures that were created after World War II precisely to resolve disputes.
I am aware of your concerns about Russia’s military operation in Donbas and Ukraine. I think that’s going to be at the heart of our conversation today. In this regard, I would just like to note that the whole problem arose after the coup d’état that took place in Ukraine in 2014. This is an obvious fact. You can call it whatever you want and you can have any preferences for those who did it, but this is really an unconstitutional coup.
After that, a situation arose with the expression of the will of the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol, who acted in almost the same way as people who lived and live in Kosovo did at one time: they decided on independence, and then turned to us with a request to join the Russian Federation. The only difference is that in Kosovo such a decision on sovereignty was made by the parliament, and in Crimea and Sevastopol – at a nationwide referendum.
There was also a problem in southeastern Ukraine, where residents of several territories – two, at least two, subjects of ukraine at that time – did not agree with the coup d’état and its results. But they were subjected to very strong pressure, including through large-scale military operations with the use of combat aircraft and heavy military equipment. This is how the crisis arose in the Donbas, in the south-east of Ukraine.
As you know, after another unsuccessful attempt by the Kiev authorities to solve this problem by military means, we came to the signing of agreements in the city of Minsk, which were called the Minsk agreements. It was an attempt at a peaceful settlement of the situation in the Donbas.
Unfortunately for us, for eight years, the people who lived there, firstly, found themselves in a blockade, and the authorities in Kiev publicly announced that they were organizing a blockade of these territories. They did not hesitate to do so, and they said: this is a blockade, although initially they refused to do so. And they continued to exert military pressure.
Under these conditions, after the authorities in Kiev announced publicly – I want to emphasise this, publicly – through the state’s top officials that they did not intend to implement the Minsk Agreements, we were forced to recognize these states as independent and autonomous in order to stop the genocide of people who live in these territories. I repeat once again: this is a forced measure to stop the suffering of the people who live in these territories.
Unfortunately, our colleagues in the West preferred not to notice all this. And after we recognized their independence, they turned to us with a request to provide them with military assistance in connection with the fact that they are subjected to military influence, military aggression. And in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Section Seven, we were also forced to do this by launching a special military operation.
I would like to inform you that despite the fact that a military operation is underway, we still expect that we will be able to reach agreements on the diplomatic track. We are negotiating, we are not abandoning them.
Moreover, at the talks in Istanbul – and I know that you have just been there, I spoke with President Erdogan today – we managed to achieve a fairly serious breakthrough. Because our Ukrainian colleagues did not associate the requirements of ukraine’s international security with such a concept as the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, putting Crimea, Sevastopol and the newly recognized Republics of Donbass outside the brackets, but with certain reservations.
But, unfortunately, after reaching these agreements and after our, in my opinion, quite clearly demonstrated intentions to create favorable conditions for the continuation of negotiations, we faced a provocation in the village of Bucha, to which the Russian army has nothing to do. We know who did it, we know who prepared this provocation, by what means, what kind of people worked on it.
And the position of our negotiators from Ukraine on further settlement has changed dramatically after that: they departed from their previous intentions to put aside the issues of guaranteeing the security of the territory of Crimea, Sevastopol and the republics of Donbass. They simply abandoned this and in their draft agreement on this matter, which has been submitted to us, simply indicated in two articles that these issues should be resolved at a meeting of the heads of state.
It is clear to us that if we take them to the level of heads of state without first resolving them at least within the framework of the draft agreement, it is clear to us that they will never be resolved and will not be resolved. In this case, we simply cannot sign up to security guarantees without resolving territorial issues regarding Crimea, Sevastopol and the republics of Donbass. Nevertheless, negotiations are underway. They are now taking place in an online format. I hope that this will lead us to some positive results.
That’s what I’d like to say at the outset. Surely we will have many questions related to this situation. Maybe we’ll talk about other issues.
I am very glad to see you. Welcome to Moscow.
A.Guterres (retranslated):Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you for hosting me in the Kremlin.
In fact, as Secretary General, my main concern is the situation in Ukraine. I have a clear understanding that we need a multilateral order based on the Charter of the United Nations and international law. Any rules to be established must be established with the consensus of the international community and be in full conformity with international law. I relentlessly and firmly believe in international law, in the UN Charter. That is why we often have different views on the situations that are happening.
I understand that the Russian Federation has a number of grievances regarding what is happening in Ukraine, as well as European global security. I have held many positions in my life, I remember that I had the opportunity to meet with you when I was the EU presidency, worked in the Portuguese government, was responsible for relations between the EU and Russia – perhaps even in the same room we met. I understand your dissatisfaction that you have. But, from our point of view, these grievances must be resolved on the basis of the various instruments proposed by the UN Charter.
We firmly believe that the violation of the territorial integrity of any country is fully inconsistent with the UN Charter. We are deeply concerned about what is happening now: we believe that there has been an invasion of the territory of Ukraine. Nevertheless, I arrived in Moscow with a pragmatic approach. We are deeply concerned about the humanitarian situation in Ukraine.
The United Nations is not part of political negotiations. We have never been invited or allowed to participate in the Minsk process or in the Normandy format. The UN has never been part of these formats. We are not part of the negotiations, and I had the opportunity to express this to President Erdogan. We support dialogue between the two countries and support Turkey’s goodwill in advancing this approach. But our main task with regard to the humanitarian situation in Ukraine is to resolve and improve this situation. That is why today I held a meeting with Minister Sergey Lavrov, and I put forward two proposals.
First, to materialize our proposal, which we presented at the meeting of representatives of OCHA [UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs] with the Ministry of Defense. We have a team that works with the defense in order to clarify the situation with regard to corridors, humanitarian assistance. This cooperation has been very fruitful.
But, in truth, we are faced with a number of situations in which Russia announces the creation of a corridor, Ukraine declares the creation of another corridor, and the situation is such that this is not being implemented in practice. Therefore, we propose to create a humanitarian contact group in which the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine can discuss the situation together so that these corridors are truly effective, so that no one has any excuses to avoid creating these corridors.
On the other hand, we understand what a difficult situation in Mariupol is. Again, with regard to this situation, I would like to say that the UN is ready to fully mobilize its logistical capabilities and human resources together with the ICRC [International Committee of the Red Cross]. I spoke with Peter Maurer yesterday, and he fully supports this initiative and is ready to work together. The idea is that we need to work together, together with the armed forces of both Russia and Ukraine, in order to solve the problems once and for all.
This will initially be an operation to evacuate civilians from the plant. Russia is constantly accused that this evacuation is not carried out. On the other hand, Russia has announced the creation of corridors, which, however, are not used. Together with the ICRC, Ukraine and Russia, we are ready to assess the situation in two or three days. This will allow the evacuation of those who want to evacuate. Of course, this is a voluntary process.
On the other hand, as for Mariupol, a very large area of the city has been destroyed, many people remain there and are in a difficult situation, they want to leave the city. Someone wants to go to the Russian Federation, someone wants to go to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. Together with the ICRC, we will be ready to use all our resources to work together with the authorities of Russia and Ukraine to create this opportunity, to guarantee the evacuation of these individuals. This will be a longer process: we need to establish more specific, concrete forms of cooperation, but we are very interested in this.
We pursue one goal, namely, to alleviate the situation of people, to reduce their suffering. As I have already said, this can be done by uniting both parties – the ICRC, our office – OCHA. To create the necessary conditions, to make it as transparent as possible, so that no one else can blame others for the fact that something is not happening.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Secretary General,
First, about the invasion. I know each other very well, very well – I personally read all the documents of the International Court of Justice on the situation in Kosovo. I remember very well the decision of the International Court of Justice, where it is written that in the exercise of the right to self-determination, a particular territory of any state is not obliged to apply for permission to declare its sovereignty to the central authorities of the country. That has been said with regard to Kosovo, and that is the decision of the International Court of Justice, and that decision has been universally supported. I personally read all the comments of the legal, administrative and political authorities of the United States and European countries – all this was supported.
If this is the case, then the republics of Donbass, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, have the same right, without appealing to the central authorities of Ukraine, to declare their sovereignty, because a precedent has been set.
So? Do you agree with that?
Antonio Guterres (retranslated): First of all, Mr President, the United Nations does not recognise Kosovo.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, yes, yes, but the court recognised it. Let me finish.
If this precedent is set, so could the Donbass republics. They did so, and we, for our part, gained the right to recognize them as independent states.
Many countries of the world, including our opponents in the West, have done this with regard to Kosovo. Kosovo is recognized by many states – after all, this is a fact – it is recognized by many Western states as an independent state. We have done the same with regard to the Donbass republics. But after we did, they asked us to provide them with military assistance against the State that was conducting military operations against them. And we had the right to do this in full compliance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Section Seven.
One second, we will discuss this with you now. Now I would like to move on to the second part of your question – this is Mariupol. The situation there is complicated, perhaps tragic. But it’s simple really.
I just spoke with President Erdogan today. He talked about the fact that there is fighting there. There’s no fighting, it’s over. There is no fighting in Mariupol, it has stopped.
Part of the armed forces of Ukraine, which was stationed in other industrial areas, it surrendered. Almost 1300 people surrendered, but in fact there are even more. There are also people who have been injured and wounded, and they are in absolutely normal conditions. Those who are injured are provided with medical care – qualified, full-fledged medical care by our doctors.
The Azovstal plant is completely isolated. I gave instructions, I gave the order not to conduct assault operations there. There is no direct fighting there. Yes, indeed, we hear from the Ukrainian authorities that there are civilians there. But then the servicemen of the Ukrainian army are obliged to release them, or they then act as terrorists in many countries of the world, like ISIS in Syria, hiding behind the civilian population. The easiest thing to do is to let these people out, which is easier.
You say that Russia’s humanitarian corridors do not work. Mr. Secretary-General, you have been misled: these corridors are working. More than 100,000 people came out of Mariupol with our assistance, 130,000, I think, or 140,000 people came out, and they can go anywhere: someone wants to go to Russia, someone wants to go to Ukraine. Anywhere – we do not keep them, we provide all kinds of help and support.
Civilians can do the same if they are on the territory of Azovstal. They can come out and that’s it. An example of a civilized attitude towards these people, it is obvious. And everybody sees that, talk to these people who came out of there, which is easier for the military or the nationalist battalions to release civilians. It’s just a crime to keep civilians there as human shields, if they’re there.
We are in contact with them – with those who are sitting there, in the dungeons of Azovstal. And they have a good example: their comrades in arms came out and laid down these weapons. More than a thousand people, 1300. Nothing happens to them. Moreover, if you would like to see, Mr Secretary-General, representatives of the Red Cross and representatives of the United Nations, how they are being held and where and how assistance to the wounded is provided, please, we are ready to provide this. This is the simplest solution to this difficult, at first glance, issue.
Let’s discuss that.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2022 20:30 utc | 195
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