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April 26, 2022

A Recap Of The War In Ukraine - by Gonzalo Lira

Gonzalo Lira just delivered a decent recap of the war in Ukraine.

Gonzalo Lira @GonzaloLira1968 - 10:28 UTC · Apr 26, 2022

Quick recap for those who haven't followed what's been going on in Ukraine but want to understand: 02/24: The Russians invaded from the south, south-east, east and north, in a lightning campaign. The Russians invaded with 190K troops—against 250K combat troops from Ukraine.

The RF put 30K troops near Kiev—nowhere near enough to capture the city—but enough to pin down some 100K AFU defenders. The RF also launched several axes of attack, with reinforcements on standby (including a famed 40km long tank column), to see where they might be needed.

Crucially—the Russian's blitz on several axes pre-empted an imminent UKRAINIAN blitzkrieg. The AFU had been about to invade the Donbas. This was the immediate motivation for Russia's invasion: To beat them to the punch and scuttle Ukraine's imminent invasion—which they did.

Also, by attacking from the north and south, the Russians disrupted weapons supply chain from NATO. Had the RF only attacked in the east to prevent the AFU invasion of Donbas, there would have been an open corridor for resupply from the West. Threatening Kiev stopped that.

So the main AFU army was left stranded in east Ukraine, with the rest of the Ukr. forces isolated and pinned down—with no easy resupply from the West. The RF then went about hitting AFU command/control and resupply links, further isolating and immobilizing Ukrainian forces.

The Russians soon nominally controlled land the size of the UK in Ukraine—but it was a tenuous control. The south of Ukraine was more fully in Russia's grip. The AFU around Kherson simply scattered. Mariupol became a clear battleground, as did the Donbas proper.

What the Russians initially wanted was to:

  • Short-circuit the imminent Donbas invasion - which they did.
  • Scare the Zelensky regime into negotiating a political settlement - which they failed to do.

Kiev had no intention of negotiating a ceasefire because of orders given to them from Washington: “Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!” Also, the Neo-Nazi goons around Zelensky threatened him if he negotiated and surrendered because they are terrified of the Russians.

So Zelensky launched a massive PR and propaganda campaign, primarily to motivate AFU forces to fight to the death. Myths were created (Ghost of Kiev), false flags were carried out (Bucha, Kramatorsk) and relentless media stories were flogged relentlessly.

The Russians kept negotiating and trying to NOT destroy Ukraine infrastructure. In fact at first they were even trying to minimize AFU casualties. The evidence for this is overwhelming: The RF did not hit civilian infrastructure - water, electric, phone, transportation. They did not hit AFU barracks, command centers, government buildings, etc.

The Russians' initial priority was for a *negotiated settlement*. But by late March, they realized this was impossible.

This is why the RF withdrew from Kiev. There was no sense putting men near the city when they were not doing what they were supposed to do - putting political pressure on the Zelensky regime to negotiate. This withdrawal was claimed as a “victory” in the “Battle of Kiev”! lmao

Starting in late March, the Russians pulled back and solidified their control over the area they had captured, ceding to the AFU areas that were either pointless to or potentially too costly to control. The Ukraine propaganda machine called all these pull- backs “victories”.

There was still a glimmer that the war might end in a negotiated settlement but that ended in early April. After the Istanbul talks of 3/30, the Ukraine side gingerly agreed to some compromises but within a week publicly disavowed those concessions.

That's when the Russians realized the Zelensky regime was agreement-incapable: Their Washington masters, Victoria Nuland and Anthony Blinken in particular, wouldn't allow a peace. They want this war to sap Russia dry. It is a classic proxy war and Ukraine will pay the price.

Something else the Russians realized: Sanctions. They hurt but Russia bounced back with remarkable speed. They didn't really hurt that bad. But the theft of Russia's $300 billion in foreign reserves by the West DID hurt - badly. The Russians realized they were in a total war with the West and since their foreign reserves were lost forever (likely to be pilfered by corrupt Western politicos), the Russians now have nothing left to lose. By stealing their reserves, the West lost all power over Russia.

This has sealed Ukraine's fate: The Russians now have no incentive to give up what they have conquered. It has cost them too much in terms of men and treasure. And they know that they can't negotiate a ceasefire. The Zelensky regime will simply break it later.

Which means:

The Russians intend to conquer and permanently annex all the south and east of Ukraine. This is why their strategy on the battlefield has dramatically shifted: Now they are carrying out a slow, methodical grinding down and destruction of the AFU.

The war in the first 30 days was speed, feints, nominally capturing vast swathes of Ukraine territory, with the aim of pressuring the Zelensky regime into a negotiated settlement. But the West's total financial and political break with Russia means they have nothing to lose. And they have a lot to gain: The Donbas is mineral rich, the really productive farmlands of Ukraine are in the east and south, Kharkov is a major industrial city, the Sea of Azov has untold natural gas reserves.

And besides - the people love them. Why would the Russians now give up this hard-won prize?

And they *have* won - make no mistake. Ask any military man who is not a system pig, he'll tell you: There is no way for the AFU to retake their country. They have no armor, no air defense, no fuel, no comms - it's over.

The great tragedy is that so many THOUSANDS of young men will die, and die NEEDLESSLY!!,  in order to postpone the inevitable. These brave boys will have fought so valiantly - and died so young, so cruelly -because of the evil of the Zelensky regime.

That's the hard truth.

And in the end, this will be the map that will remain—a bitter image of Ukraine's future. Russia will pour billions into their newly acquired territory. It will prosper and flourish. But the rump-state of Ukraine will be left poor, destroyed, forgotten.

A tragedy.


bigger

I concur with the above except for two minor detail. The move on Kiev was not intended to hinder resupply to Ukrainian troops in Donbas but to 'fix' potential reinforcement around the capital. That enabled Russian troops to open the corridor from Crimea to the Russian boarder as well as to cross the Dnieper in the south and to take Kherson. Those were the most important moves for the further development of the war.

I also do not believe that Russia will 'annex' the areas it is liberating from fascist control. Once librated the people in those areas will vote on becoming independent from Ukraine and the various regions, Donbas, Luhansk, Kherson, Odessa, will form states that will become part of the Federal Republic of Novorossia.

That country will be recognized and supported by Russia and its allies.

Posted by b on April 26, 2022 at 11:23 UTC | Permalink

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Decent analysis. The jury is still out on whether the Russian campaign will be overall a smashing success, a hard-fought victory, or a stalemate.

What is quite striking from my point of view is that Russia tries to be one step, or half a step ahead, of NATO, but never more. Meaning that they only take preemptive measures once NATO has made a new escalation. Eastern countries (Slovakia) provide tanks -> Russia starts destroying sub-stations. Tiraspol is under attack -> the Odessan bridge is blown off.

But Russia is never trying to be two or three steps away. They could for instance have destroyed the railway network a month ago, but chose not to. As if they only used their trump cards only when absolutely necessary. It's a kind of conservative way of doing war. Will it work, or does it only provide Ukraine and Nato successive respites, never knocking them down for good ?

The most interesting question for me would be to know how much the war is costing Russia. I remember that at the time of the Syrian conflict it was calculated that it didn't cause any extra costs for the Russian state, all was paid on the budget usually earmarked for military maneuvers.

I suspect that it's the same here and that a key driver of the Russian strategy is to ensure economic sustainability. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that since beginning of the year there has a been a net positive to the Russian budget. Ukraine, on the other hand...

Posted by: Micron | Apr 26 2022 11:34 utc | 1

Terrific recap, and I agree with B's emendations. However on the second point I have to wonder "Why not?" Why not annex Novorussia if it is the will of the people through a referendum as done with Crimea. The new state will have to be protected anyways especially considering the vulnerability of LNDR when in the limbo of non-recognition by Ukraine and the West.

Posted by: MikeO | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 2

In my opinion everything left of the river Dnipro will be Novorossia, there will not be border between Russia and Ukraine.

Posted by: evald | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 3

Sorry to be skeptical, but is this really Gonzalo Lira? Why make up a new account when he - prior to his kidnapping - warned against imposters on Twitter and to only trust @realgonzalolira?

Posted by: John Chemist | Apr 26 2022 11:59 utc | 4

It is a mistake to see front people like Nuland or Blinken as having a say over policy, they are in those positions because they are trusted by the people with the actual power to do as they are told. Don't think that bureaucrats have more power over American policy than the people controlling the big banks, corporations, and private equity. There is an elite class in control over the government, anyone in the government who doesn't do what they want are quickly removed. Biden is their quintessential lackey which translated into his secure place in political leadership regardless of his level of buffoonery.

Posted by: Kana | Apr 26 2022 12:00 utc | 5

Something that I think adds to Lira's and b's take.

https://twitter.com/Vick_top55/status/1518907088281477120
After the visit to Ukraine of the heads of the State Department and the Pentagon, CNN writes about the change in Biden's strategy for Russia. They decided that it was possible and necessary to defeat Russia on the battlefield.
Now it is believed that "military support for Ukraine could lead to serious strikes against Russia that would weaken its long-term military capabilities, which would be of strategic benefit to the United States." The supply of weapons to Ukraine, CNN sources call "an investment in the neutralization of the Russian army and navy for the next decade."

The US does not view Ukraine as anything other than one of Russia's rebellious provinces (which the US has skillfully mutinied). Therefore, the destruction of Ukraine and its transformation into the Wild Field is also pure weakening of Russia.
.....................

"Federal Republic of Novorossia." Putin, publicly at least has shown no interest in adding the current republics to the Russian Federation - though the people there are or were being issued Russian passports and rouble currency. Possibly a relationship similar to the current Russia Belarus union state?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 12:10 utc | 6

Thanks b, for the post. I am very suspicious of Lira whom I suspect is on the payroll of an oligarch (how to stay safe as an “independent” reporter in a open combat zone - in a previous conflict I heard about this, can’t remember which one.). I can’t prove that, it’s just my suspicion. In that light, I’d like to draw attention to this passage from his spiel:

“The Russians' initial priority was for a *negotiated settlement*. But by late March, they realized this was impossible.

This is why the RF withdrew from Kiev. There was no sense putting men near the city when they were not doing what they were supposed to do - putting political pressure on the Zelensky regime to negotiate. This withdrawal was claimed as a “victory” in the “Battle of Kiev”! lmao”

Although diplomacy can be misleading and there’s that fog of war to consider, but I have never seen a statement from anyone official in Russia that negotiated settlement was impossible. To the contrary, I’ve seen statements of agreement or progress. Perhaps Lira is referring to whatever events led to Lavrov saying this yesterday:

https://tass.com/politics/1442975

"I think that this step or two steps back were made above all on the advice of our American and British colleagues, may be, the Poles played some part here, the Balts. They reverted from the positions that we were ready to take as a foundation and told them about this," he pointed out. [Lavrov]

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Apr 26 2022 12:12 utc | 7

In my opinion everything left of the river Dnipro will be Novorossia, there will not be border between Russia and Ukraine.

Posted by: evald | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 3

Too early to tell, Russia withdrew from Sumy and Chernihov. It depends if the political collapse of Kiev regime will happen, and that is not easy to predict one way or another. I would extend the maxim of Clausewitz

"War is an extension of politics with a large dose of insanity."

Things like "they would be better of if" do not always work, even without a war, but war tends to reduce rationality further. And insane plans are predicated on capitalizing on that.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 26 2022 12:12 utc | 8

Posted by: John Chemist | Apr 26 2022 11:59 utc | 4

He deleted lots of stuff from his old account - the most misogynistic, racist, homophobic, and the stuff were he praises Pinochet (lmao). Well, kind of a rebranding, isn't it!? Doesn't make this analysis less truthful although (as he said himself) he just synthesizes different informations from other platforms (where else would he know all the military parlance?).
As a professional influencer and dating coach on YT (ever heard of Coach Red Pill?) he certainly does know how to market himself and acquire followers...

Posted by: v | Apr 26 2022 12:13 utc | 9

Gonzalo lira has been heavily compromised,he's a busted flush

Posted by: Danbert | Apr 26 2022 12:13 utc | 10

There really would be no option on the referendum to rejoin the current Ukrainian state, it would put the lives of the occupying forces at danger from retaliation after the war eventually ends. However a new state is entirely possible.

The deep political divisions in Ukraine since independence cannot be understated, and still existed into the 2019 election. The south east who were more traditional and respected their historic ties with Russia as opposed to the the north and west who had nationalist ties and pro-EU stem back prior to the coup in 2014. Ukraine was effectively two nations in the same border, with about the same amount of people and power. However, often the people in the south had a stronger voting presence.

That changed in 2014, when the support for NATO and the CSTO were about equal, and of course then the subsequent brainwashing of the citizens that occurred after.

However even in 2019 'pro-Russian' support was high in the south. They were Ukrainian but had a different idea of what that meant. Mariupol and areas of the Donbas voted their first choice Boyko, but who was kicked out after the first round. Zelensky was their second choice.

Zelensky though had no foreign policy when he took office, he was also from Kryvyi Rih, a southern city, so people may have thought he was more moderate in his foreign diplomatic approach. So these southern areas are still very different to the northern ones politically.

Therefore a separation, a new state, may be on the cards. I think the Ukrainian people are really owed proper self-determination, and not one enforced by one foreign power or another. Russia could help establish their constitution, to protect itself from foreign interference, and give guarantors on its independence. I think this is the best solution.

As I said from the beginning, apart from Crimea / and perhaps Donbas republics, the less land that Russia grabs for itself the better. It will play much more favourably internationally if they keep the moral high ground at all costs, as much as possible while still winning the war.

Posted by: KS | Apr 26 2022 12:14 utc | 11

John Chemist | Apr 26 2022 11:59 utc | 4

His iphone was opened within minutes of his arrest, the goons going through what was on his computer and phone they also changed the passwords of all his social media accounts.
On several live video interviews lira has given the username of his new account.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 12:18 utc | 12

Thanks, b, for your expertise on focusing on the synthesis of geopolitical and military imperatives. This is a superb situation report, for forwarding to the ignorant.

Could this be a summary to give to our ignorant and shocked colleagues, friends and acquaintances.

That's why barflies congregate!

Posted by: Paul | Apr 26 2022 12:24 utc | 13

Just a quick addition to my comment (@7). I believe it was our meister and keeper of the bar, b, who gave me info about understanding of journalists in war zones.

How Avaaz is Sponsoring Fake War Propaganda from Syria
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2012/03/avaaz-sponsoring-fake-reporting-from-syria.html

As well as this one about Blumenthal, Norton, Khalek and their poor excuses
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/05/blumenthal-norton-khalek-the-turncoats-deliver-a-poor-excuse-by-daniel.html

Thank you, b!

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Apr 26 2022 12:27 utc | 14

The Ukraine nazi's were deeply involved with the terrorist groups that operated in Chechnya in the late 90's and early 2000's.
Kadyrov has offered a one million dollar reward for anyone informing him of the location of the two Chechen groups fighting for the nazi's in Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 12:35 utc | 15

Lira's damaged goods. Fraud and cheat, now Quisling for SBU. Disregard.
https://australianpropertyforum.com/steve-keen-39-s-debunking-economics-website-stolen-t13019.html

Posted by: JGarbo | Apr 26 2022 12:37 utc | 16

@KS #12

"As I said from the beginning, apart from Crimea / and perhaps Donbas republics, the less land that Russia grabs for itself the better. It will play much more favourably internationally if they keep the moral high ground at all costs, as much as possible while still winning the war. "

It'll play more favorably internationally because any "independent" republics will immediately start being suborned by the Wests' ability to out-bribe the Russians and install comprador elites. Eventually you'll just get Ukraine v 2.0

No, I suspect Putin will claim that too many Russian lives have been spent rescuing the locals from (neo)Nazis and they should become part of "eternal" Russia. If the locals have any sense they'll agree... otherwise they'll be subject to more "Maidans".

Posted by: Observer | Apr 26 2022 12:44 utc | 17

JGarbo | Apr 26 2022 12:37 utc | 16

Interesting watching the different takes on Lira.
This quote comes to mind "hell hath no fury like a woman scorned".

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 12:45 utc | 18

I believe Gonzalo is right. Russia will indeed annex the coastal regions of Ukraine, out of necessity. These places cannot afford to become a buffer zone who would then be submitted to repeated attacks, maybe over years, carried out by NATO's Neo-Nazi goons from the "rump Ukraine" launchpad, where NATO would undoubtedly settle to harass the new state of Novorossia. The only solution, if these populations want to be left alone, is to join the Russian Federation as an autonomous state, so as to be protected by daddy's big guns, just as Crimea already is.

Posted by: Corinne | Apr 26 2022 12:50 utc | 19

Posted by: JGarbo | Apr 26 2022 12:37 utc | 16

Keen has the whole story on his blog documented. Seems like Max Keiser was also involved in that scheme. You can make a funny tale out of this: When a libertarian, a shitlib, and a fascist come meet each other...

ROFL

Posted by: v | Apr 26 2022 12:51 utc | 20

I guess most Lira detractors are lost in all the lies he spews about elites that have control of our lives. What a posser...... doesn't hurt that all the lies he spews are readily available from open sources for those who have the capacity and ability to see and read past the end of their noses.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 26 2022 12:57 utc | 21

Gonzalo Lira does good work, but he has a pronounced tendency to "repurpose" other people's work without crediting them.
Furthermore, he does not have a good record in distinguishing (for himself or his readers) between what is proven fact, educated conjecture or outright guess.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 26 2022 12:58 utc | 22

https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/wp-content/gallery/ukraine2014p/2014-ukraine-oranges-raions-total.png

Voting map 2014 probably reveals future delineations which are same as Gonzo's. I believe this distribution is very close to language map as well. Though longer West insists perhaps more likely that Kiev will be included and hostiles pushed into Galicia.

If West refuses to stop fighting in Ukraine then the fields involving trade and supply chain etc become principal order of battle. Most likely upcoming economic and political turmoil in Western countries will end this struggle with the Western elites succeeding in floisting a new Order on their hapless, complacent, sleepwalking sheoples.

Then the kinetic struggle can end especially if the new Order is integrated with freshly minted Chinese-Eurasian system of digital currencies etc. Key will be whether or not resultant multipolarity features independent but linked systems or a new centralized techno fascist hegemonic system. In any case, unlikely that Western elites continue to rule the roost.

Either way, the conflict in Ukraine doesn't end until West gives up for whatever combinations of reasons.

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 26 2022 13:10 utc | 23

Some interesting news.

An abandoned archive was found at the OSCE headquarters in Mariupol. It contains OSCE field reports from 2014, documenting thousands of Ukrainian war crimes, which the OSCE then concealed in the official reports of the mission in Ukraine. In addition, a warehouse of Italian-made mortar mines was found in the garage of the OSCE building. The markings on the boxes indicate that the mines were packed for shipping by sea on 2022-3-11.
"Unbiased", "objective" OSCE. Yep.

RT has launched a new project - the video_languages Telegram channel publishes videos about the special operation in Ukraine in 17 languages.

The First Deputy Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN said that the White Helmets are already in Ukraine.
Obviously, soon we can expect new spectacles and provocations.

Posted by: alaff | Apr 26 2022 13:12 utc | 24

Rumour: Poland decided to suuply Ukraine with 14 tanks while Germany decided to send 88 tanks. Who said 14/88??? No, that is your only dirty mind plays tricks!

Posted by: Arioch | Apr 26 2022 13:19 utc | 25

Scorpion | Apr 26 2022 13:10 utc | 23

I also have been wondering about Kiev. The foundation of today's Russia. The Galacian Rus who lived under Polish rule for much of the last thousand years believe they are the true successors of the Kievian Rus.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 13:20 utc | 26

Politics and corruption in Ukraine:

Describes how NAFTOGAS sold russian gas to ukrainians calling it 'european gas' and pocketed the fees (it was still russian gas shipped through ukraine, they just pumped it back from the border), and how through the banks of oligarch Viktor Pinchuk, according to investigators and Ukrainian investigative journalists, $29 million was stolen and transferred to the fund of the US Presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton.

The gas scam involved Kerry and Biden as the included recording of a conversation between Kerry and Poroshenko shows.

And, as Thierry Meissan writes Bandéristes have gradually taken over the country over the last 30 years.

And this is just a few of the politicians, oligarchs and their clans!

Posted by: Dadda | Apr 26 2022 13:29 utc | 27

I think Russia understands there are _three_ Ukraines not two. Bandera Nazi Ukraine in the west, EU-oriented Ukraine in the north around Kiev, and the Russia-oriented south and southeast.

Russia has always intended, I think, to deal effectively with all three (but there's a chance it changes its mind depending on the strength of post-Donbas-closure resistance).

South/Southeast: let the oblasts freely decide their futures, confident they'll choose Russia alliance or incorporation. North: Defeat, denazify, and let it be 'free' somewhat like post-1945 Finland: strong guarantees of disarmament and neutrality. West: squeeze it into a minimal rump, seal it off with semi-permanent Russia troops, but don't occupy the region. (Maybe Poland will do that _for_ Russia? 🙂)

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 26 2022 13:35 utc | 28

Terrific recap, and I agree with B's emendations. However on the second point I have to wonder "Why not?" Why not annex Novorussia if it is the will of the people through a referendum as done with Crimea. The new state will have to be protected anyways especially considering the vulnerability of LNDR when in the limbo of non-recognition by Ukraine and the West.

Posted by: MikeO | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 2

The West says that the majority of the world stands against Russia and points to 100 or more mostly tiny client states. Russia is a huge country, but it only counts as one country. This could be the start of a group of small countries that stand with Russia. If they are internationally recognized - and the West will certainly never do that.

If the states become independent, they will not only need military protection, I think the West will try to buy them outright using money stolen from Russia. This speaks more in favor of accession to the Russian Federation - if the populations are so inclined.

Posted by: Martina | Apr 26 2022 13:36 utc | 29

It's bizarre that people keep listing hydrocarbons and food as reasons that Russia wants Ukraine. Don't they understand that Russia has infinite hydrocarbons and is the worlds largest wheat exporter? This started because the US was angry over Russia denying them Snowden & Syria in 2013, and wanted to punish them. The Ukraine coup was supposed to force Russia to lose Sevastopol or be stuck in a guerrilla war. Neither happened, and US proxies got humiliated by a bunch of coal miners in the Donbass wars. Trying to punish Russia in Syria didn't work either. The US escalated again in Ukraine because they're desperate and dying.

Regarding annexation, it's useful to remember that Russia ignored the Donbass republics when they asked to join Russia in 2014. Russia also spent 7 years trying to cram them back into Ukraine via Minsk 2. Russian interest in the Donbass consists mainly in keeping the US from 'winning' militarily. In addition to creating Novorussia, Russia can create Malorussia in central and northeastern Ukraine, while the western part could either be ignored, or taken by Poland, Hungary, and Romania. A partitioned country following the Syria template, with the competent Donbass forces against the incompetent NATO proxies somewhere in Zhitomir and Vinnitsia won't save the US empire, or destroy Russia.

Posted by: Jesrad | Apr 26 2022 13:37 utc | 30

Why anyone bothers with Lira...He is a shameless self-promoter. Useless, except to the Imperialists.

Posted by: donten | Apr 26 2022 13:39 utc | 31

Karlof1

A few weeks ago you posted a statement by Putin where he explicitly referred to the military movement towards Kiev as a "shackling" operation. Do you have that link? It would confirm the Lira/Ritter interpretation of that component of Phase 1. Can you repost it below? Thanks.

Posted by: wilbur | Apr 26 2022 13:40 utc | 32

Personally, I don't care if it is really Lira whoever he is or not. The message always ranks over the message, to me. IOW if it makes a lot of sense it doesn't matter who said it, as in this case.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 13:43 utc | 33

fairleft | Apr 26 2022 13:35 utc | 28

The three parts of Ukraine - to me is the Russian east, the neutral center and the Galacia west,
but the west also needs to be broke down as there are other ethnic groups there. Best thing I think is to give Galacia back to the Poles and let them deal with the nutters - on the condition that any US forces (nato) move in there they will be destroyed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 13:45 utc | 34

I love those one sentence takedowns of known people from virtual nobodies who don’t even bother with proper grammar. Not.
I don’t give a fuck what you think about Assange, Lira or Norton as a person. I suspect most barflies would agree.

Posted by: RJB | Apr 26 2022 13:48 utc | 35

Posted by: evald | Apr 26 2022 11:46 utc | 3

In my opinion everything left of the river Dnipro will be Novorossia, there will not be border between Russia and Ukraine.
---------

Wouldn't that be nice.
But imo not a reality.
That would constitute and endless war,as the west desires for Ukraine to weaken Russia.
Russia must flush the Nationalists through the gates of Poland as it moves from east to west.Securing the southern boarder of Balarus at the same time.Decapitate the Ukrainian Government and install a pro-Russian interim government in Kiev,while it completes its de-nazification and secures Ukraine & Russia from Nato.
This will take a long period of time imo.It is worth remembering that the SMO has already expanded from its initial objective,with Russia threatening the loss of statehood throughout the the negotiations.
The problem the West has now,is how far Russia really intends to go with Ukraine.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 13:51 utc | 36

The Russians are following their plans, which include the context of change. If I had a say in the matter, I would remove the Khrushchev-given autonomy, completely!


Posted by: donten | Apr 26 2022 13:56 utc | 37

Come to think of it, the three parts of Ukraine I have noticed and fairleft commented on, are shown in Lira's or whoevers map that is part of b's post.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 14:00 utc | 38

alaff@24
So the OSCE is just like every other international institution that exists, the OPCW, for example, the ICC, the IMF, the UN itself.
All have been thoroughly corrupted by the United States and the pack of hyena states that feast off its scraps.
But most of the NATO world will never hear of this, just as they never got to listen to the extremely damaging and dramatic testimony of the OPCW experts whose reports in Syria were falsified by their NATO corrupted bosses.

Perhaps, as was suggested here yesterday, the real purpose of the entire operation in Ukraine is to finish the job of thoroughly taming the media and the alternative media in particular and all traces of political opposition in NATO land.
The neo-cons are not satisfied with being mad sadists themselves, they want the entire population indoctrinated to think like them.

The real story here is that the US just moved Ukraine into South America: after halving working class living standards, from Soviet levels, and transferring the national wealth into the hands of criminals living abroad, it was necessary, to prevent popular revolution, to build a totalitarian security apparatus, run by fascist thugs. Opposition leaders were disappeared or killed, all dissenting media closed down. This was why the Minsk Accords could not be implemented: the US would not allow any Ukrainians self government because it knew that the rest of Ukraine would want the same rights and powers. The wonder is that the Nationalist language programme to get people to stop speaking their own languages didn't go the whole way and insist they speak Spanish instead.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2022 14:03 utc | 39

While I can't disagree with the alleged Lira communication and b's slight modifications, it does seem odd that a man under 'house arrest' and prohibited to post more than 'proof of life' lives through this post which calls out the 'evil of the Zelensky regime.' Doesn't pass smell test. imo.

Posted by: gottlieb | Apr 26 2022 14:07 utc | 40

from WarOnTheRocks. . .
Putin the Planner

Observers commonly describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reckless gamble. But the Putin I came to know in St. Petersburg during the early 1990s was not a gambler in the classic sense, much less a reckless one. Gambling by definition involves the risk of losing. My interactions with and observations of Putin showed that he did not like taking such risks. Rather, he carefully planned his moves, combining intimidation, violence, and legal maneuvers in a systematic way to achieve his ends. Putin only acted once he thought that the outcome was almost certain to be a success and he persisted, using additional resources as necessary, until he achieved his goal.
Analysts have cited a variety of miscalculations in Putin’s recent decision-making, but this does not mean that he was rolling the dice. Putin viewed Ukraine as an unresolved problem. He took steps over a period of years that he thought would ensure the success of an invasion. Once he could no longer wait for an alternative solution, Putin launched it at the most opportune time. Whatever happens on the ground now, there is good reason to think that Putin will continue to pursue a solution on his terms as long as he remains in power. . .here

Sun Tzu: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 14:16 utc | 41

From;Sergey Lavrov

The West continues to supply weapons to the territory of Ukraine. This time, M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
Our intelligence reports that in this way they are preparing mass attacks on military bases in the Crimea.
The main focus of the talks with the UN Secretary General was on the situation in Europe, around Ukraine, the LPR and the DPR.
We ask all citizens to remain vigilant.
----------
The main focus of the talks with the UN Secretary General was on the situation in Europe, around Ukraine, the LPR and the DPR.
----------
Negotiations on Ukraine are unlikely to be fruitful if Kyiv continues to be pumped with weapons.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 14:19 utc | 42

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 13:20 utc | 26
"I also have been wondering about Kiev. The foundation of today's Russia. The Galacian Rus who lived under Polish rule for much of the last thousand years believe they are the true successors of the Kievian Rus."

Well, it seems to me that as long as the West insists on kinetic conflict then Russia must engage. And if she keeps engaging she will at some point move the goalposts further away from her borders whilst, perhaps more importantly, further reducing Ukrainian military capability and political will, US-NATO control notwithstanding.

And meanwhile the Western economies and socio-political dynamics presumably will considerably weaken to the point that further kinetic campaigns in Ukraine become unsustainable at which point Russia can begin to ratchet them down.

But until the latter happens, war will continue and I suspect the West is a long way from giving up so perhaps that's why Kiev will later come into focus.

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 26 2022 14:22 utc | 43

This conflict will continue until several things occur, one the EU and Nato decide to stop funneling arms to Ukraine unlikely or two there's no more Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to arm. If Zelensky tries to stop the conflict hew will be replaced at Washington's behest. The goal of the EU and Nato is to break Russia and they see this as their best chance.

It doesn't matter if regions of Ukraine declare independence or vote to join the Russian Federation Nato and the EU will still arm what's left of Ukraine to fight these regions and Russian forces, without directly bringing their own countries into conflict with Russia.

It might even be the case the only way for Russia and its allies that breakaway from Ukraine can end this war in the future, is if they combine their forces and take the whole of Ukraine the logic being if there's no Ukraine then there are no Ukrainian forces to funnel arms too.


Other possibilities are that Ukraine's neighbours Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Moldova etc, are dragged into the conflict leading to a wider scale conflict, again the USA would see this an opportunity to stretch Russian forces and weaken its resolve.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 14:24 utc | 44

War is violence. There's no such thing as "humanitarian war". War is no piecemeal business. War is onslaught. The days of Frederick II or Louis XIV are over. I'm afraid ça va mal finir...

Posted by: FMG | Apr 26 2022 14:25 utc | 45

@Republicofscotland @44,
I suggest that someone try blocking off the flow of money to the western and Ukrainian politicians that they are skimming to get their support for the war.

Posted by: Manage without me | Apr 26 2022 14:26 utc | 46

Thanks, b, for offering this website, opening and monitoring the discussions. Thanks to all commenters for their valuable remarks and LINKs.

Lira's summary may be called good, but the outlook he gives for Russia is dangerous.*) There is not the question whether the occupied territories could be 'independent'(?) in future or instead being parts of the Federation of Russia. The question is whether Russia is able to continue up to the border of Poland. If Russia can not succeed so far, the war will become endless and will produce exactly what "the West" intends - overstretching and exhausting Russia.

The complete! Ukraine under Russian 'domination' will give this planet some rest and pause and further time to prepare, but even then World War III will continue or re-start again. Why? Because 'We The People' are wasting our time with comments & speculations & good ideas & critics & conspiracy theories, instead of acting politically and seizing the souvereignity which we have.

Acting politically means: unite, cooperate, discuss, plan, organize - ALL TOGETHER - to form majorities, ressources and political force.

The wars of the past, since about 6000 years, were mostly wars of powers and ELITES against other powers and ELITES, using 'Us The People' as fighters, suppliers, 'brains and bodies' (quote from Yuval Harari ...). And until this evil pattern is not broken by "Us The People" the war will not end. This my opinion includes the assumption that 'We the People' today has the meaning of all human beings on this planet. The present political divisions and fragmentations are going throughout all states & nations & societies & families - everywhere on this planet. Whoever starts the unification and cooperation must take into account the whole mankind - all 'The People' in all countries.

Therefore in my sight discussions about 'how & when & who will win the war' are rather useless as long as others have the real power to decide and act (Karl Rove's quote you all here know ...). From the moment when 'We The People' start to act the reality gets a completely other face.

Kind regards, Gerhard

*) giving me doubts about what Lira has in mind ...

PS: While I was writing my own comment, @Kim has expressed same opinion regarding "Russia up to the border of Poland" - borders of Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Moldavia included - even the latter's division included. This topic has started already and will be discussed today in Ramstein under the topic: should "We the Elite" attack Russian forces in Moldavia starting from Ukrainian territory ...?

Posted by: Gerhard | Apr 26 2022 14:27 utc | 47

Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 14:16 utc | 41

I read through much of the link. certainly there is much that is correct in Putin's meticulous planning and minimizing risks. But that is overlaid by projection. Projecting western politicians lust for personal power onto all others.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 14:27 utc | 48

The US won’t rule out military action if China establishes a military base in the Solomon Islands, halfway around the world, but NATO bases next door to Russia? No problem. Just do it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 14:28 utc | 49

Another thing that Russia could do is to produce some watchable videos in various languages, and continue doing so, for audiences in Ukraine, Poland, and especially Germany who have been brainwashed into believing that they must destroy themselves over collective guilt about WW2. The Americans are using their strength of producing media content to their advantage. The Russians, even Lavrov, cannot give a sound bite that explains their position about Ukraine that is convincing. They go on and on for hours, and their discourse, although intelligent, doesn't click with the populations that are now considered their enemies.

Same with the Chinese. Say it in 10 seconds and give it a punchline. Learn to use media. We are not all academics.

Posted by: Manage without me | Apr 26 2022 14:30 utc | 50

This mornings NYT has a story about how the US is changing the discussion - ie this war is now about weakening Russia....https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/us/politics/ukraine-russia-us-dynamic.html
Same front page has Russia lashing out and claiming the Ukraine thing is a proxy war to defeat Russia...https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/26/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

To me the last couple days show that the idea of any kind of negotiated settlement is over, if it ever existed, and probably by May 9th we will be in a gloves off NATO - Russia battle, a world war. We're about to find out if a limited nuclear war is possible, I am afraid....

Posted by: Boomheist | Apr 26 2022 14:31 utc | 51

@Boomheist, I doubt that it will come to that that quickly. The EU was talking about how the sanctions against Russia won't bite until autumn, while the Russians are thinking that the unemployed Germans will start huddling under their blankets at about the same time.

Posted by: Manage without me | Apr 26 2022 14:33 utc | 52

Manage without me (46).

It might be that politicians in Ukraine are so corrupt that they'd be queuing up to take Zelenskys place for less cash than he's getting from Washington and his sponsors. If Washington is truly calling the shots this conflict will continue to, as Mr Lira said the last Ukrainian, and the last foreign mercenary, and even then we have US, French, UK and God only knows what other countries special forces troops in Ukraine.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 14:35 utc | 53

fairleft @ 28

This is slightly more correct, I believe...three "Ukraines." Based on its conduct over the last several years, I'm sure at the outset Russia envisioned freeing the Eastern and Southern oblasts, as noted above, but I think genuinely preferred to have them become independent, perhaps confederated republics, although maybe with a very strong Union State type of relationship with Russia proper...at least for quite some time. Even with Belarus Russia has been slow to push deeper integration, although there is every reason to expect someday they will be properly unified.

Even the most solidly "Russian" Crimea has reportedly been a challenge to re-integrate into Russia, to address the years of neglect and the institutionalized corruption from Kiev. I think Russia knows the oblasts Lira marks as Russian will have the same problems only amplified, and I have a feeling Russia knows the people there must want to see changes, fix their own problems, and the like, before they would be ready to join Russia. Aside from protection from the West, Russia cannot be a white knight that come in and solves all the problems. With the price being paid by Russia to free these oblasts being so high, there may be more domestic pressure to integrate these oblasts sooner than planned, but I still think the Kremlin will prefer to take it slow.

I agree that Russia would prefer to see a de-militarized, de-nazified, and neutral central ukraine "republic," and a de-militarized western nazi rump--and let the EU deal with the nazis, who will rapidly wear out their welcome. Again, this calculus may have changed since NATO has become actively involved in the war.

Posted by: J Swift | Apr 26 2022 14:37 utc | 54

Maria Zakharova
Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.

Maria Zacharova writes on legitimate targets.

UK Undersecretary of Defense James Hippie: "It is absolutely legal for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia to disrupt logistics, if these supplies are not disrupted, this will directly lead to death and bloodshed on the territory of Ukraine."

Do we understand correctly that for the sake of "disrupting the logistics of military supplies" Russia can strike at military targets on the territory of those NATO countries that supply weapons to the Kyiv regime? After all, this directly leads to death and bloodshed on the territory of Ukraine. As far as I understand, Britain is one of these countries.

The “depth of flight” of the thought of the leadership of the British Ministry of Defense is second only to the intelligence of the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of this country.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 14:38 utc | 55

This video on Patrick Lancaster is well worth the watch
I hold him in the highest esteem.

Dan Dumbrill and Pat in an interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9V3q_s26r8

Posted by: ld | Apr 26 2022 14:38 utc | 56

@Republicofscotland, I don't think it's just the Ukrainian politians skimming. I think it's almost all of them.

Posted by: Manage without me | Apr 26 2022 14:38 utc | 57

Interesting updates on Intel Slava

🇲🇩🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The Transnistrian case is very important for Ukraine. There, under the protection of Russian peacekeepers, there is the largest ammunition depot in Europe. Given their severe shortage, Kyiv is probably willing to take the risk. It's only 2 km from the border

🇺🇦🇲🇩🇷🇺⚡"There is only one chance left to save Mariupol — a blow to Transnistria" - Butusov

In Ukraine, they openly declare preparations for an offensive on Transnistria.

"Ukraine has the legal right to demilitarize the military facilities of the Russian troops threatening us...This will make it possible to capture Russian prisoners for exchange, eliminate the threat of a breakthrough by Russian troops, seize large arsenals of ammunition, and release two Ukrainian brigades that stand on the Ukrainian-Moldovan border," said Butusov, one of the main military-political propagandists.

🇷🇺🇲🇩❗The Russian Federation would like to avoid a scenario in which Moscow will have to intervene in the conflict in Transnistria - Russian Foreign Ministry

Posted by: Down South | Apr 26 2022 14:43 utc | 58

Lira is a Civilian Amature; and he's either rehashing Opinions of others he's compiling.

Better to Source from:
*MoA_B
*TheSaker_Sources
*JohnHelmer_DanceswithBears
*Telegram_Intel-Slava-Z
*Telegram_MoD-Russia
*RT+SputnikNews(site(use VPN)/app/Odysee/Rumble/Telegram(use VPN))
*ClubOrlov(PayWall) - he occasionally WritesElsewhere/VidInterviews

Lira gave us some Accountings, Highlights, and Debunking; but save for the Situational Drama - the Data were available through other sources.

I lost respect for Lira when I found out that he was playing the "Dissident Games" with his Wife+Kids nearby - An Amateur Risking the Lives of his Wife+Children. I presumed that he had them sent abroad when this conflict started.

Many of us - including Yours Truly - advised him to GTFO when he disclosed that a WokedNewsSite Doxxed-Reported him to the SBU, which sent out a Investigative Party after him.

My hunches as to how Lira was just placed on House Arrest by the SBU on such "Peaceful" Terms are as follows:
A) His Wife, In-Laws, Neighbors+Friends Reported and Arranged for the House Arrest - before the Bandera-Nazi sent out Bounty-Capture/Trophy-Kill Parties;
B) His stance as "not supporting what the Russians are doing; but despising what Kolomoiskyy+Pets_Zelenskyy+Biden+BanderaNazi are doing to the UKRanian People as a Whole - gained him Sympathizers in the Govt/SBU;
C) One or more of his Sources+Friends are SBU/UKR_Govt affiliated.

Posted by: IronForge | Apr 26 2022 14:53 utc | 59

All I know on this is what I read here. Apparently Gonzalo ran a confidence trick on Steve Keen. When it was over Steve had no possibility of recovery and no legal recourse. All he can do is whine about it on the internet. Steve should be embarrassed and ashamed.

Critical reading. Sources are not good sources because they make us feel warm and fuzzy. Gonzalo wears his ego on his sleeve. He is transparent as could be about who and what he is. Yes, nearly all of his ramblings are low value. I would never wish to meet him. So what? Read him or not.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 26 2022 14:56 utc | 60

Manage without me (57).

Yes, when you think about it the MIC especially in the USA are making so much money from this conflict and the kickbacks to the politicians will also be bigger, that its in the US politicians interests to keep this conflict going for as long as possible, or even to expand it. Military spending I assume will or has risen in Europe so the kickbacks will be greater their as well.

Its not about the Ukrainians, they mean nothing they are expendable, there's a big pot of gold to be made in arms sales and if Nato and the EU can break Russia, via Ukraine, an enormous wealth of natural assets awaits those global corporations that are in bed with the West, so its worth it to Washington and Brussels to sacrifice Ukrainians. At the very least they now have control of Western Ukraine and the debt it owes them, in the shape of supplying weapons and aid.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 14:56 utc | 61

Gonzalo Lira's account doesn't mention recent Russian attacks on transportation infra (rail), and more importantly the cause for it (influx of massive 'Western' arms) brought about by an apparent shift in US objectives.

Gonzalo Lira's assessment might have been written two weeks ago, a week ago.

Gonzalo Lira was live on George Galloway's show last Sunday. Is he alive today?

Posted by: bjd | Apr 26 2022 15:00 utc | 62

Posted by: RJB | Apr 26 2022 13:48 utc | 35

This is an international blog, run by a German. Not everybody is a native English speaker. Now, go fuck yourself!

Posted by: v | Apr 26 2022 15:09 utc | 63

Great analysis, however we have to think of this as the first of a series of "small war" over Ukraine, and more broadly through out the rest of world resulting from the collapse of Neo-liberal hegemony. Whatever "peace" or "truce" is achieved at the end of this first round of the conflict there is simply no possible way that NATO/MIC zombie can allow the result to stand without mounting some kind of military challenge. This is the game that the Russia/China alliance now finds itself in. At one small level this is why some form of NovoRussia will be formed (initially) to provide Russia with some kind of political, economic, and military buffer for the next conflict. But is also speaks to the fact that the collapse of the "west" will unfold within a series conflicts, some in and around Ukraine, others further afield.

Posted by: Russell Stephens | Apr 26 2022 15:14 utc | 64

Clif High had a video where he said Russia got the heads up on the AFU planned attack on Donbas in Kazakstan. About 45 days before Ukraine, Kazakstan had an uprising. Kazak was the planned titular HQ of the NWO-Illuminati. Astana in Kazakstan has all these weird and expensive Illuminati-Mason styled buildings. There are a lot of internet searches trying to debunk that which is usually a good sign that it is true.

The NWO-elites-globalists got punch in the mouth first in Kazakstan then the Ukraine where they launder much of their criminal money, engage in human and organ trafficking.. Why these areas? Well supposedly whomever controls this central Eur-Asia area controls the world. Kazakstan and neighboring areas also are loaded with oil and natural gas.

Ganzalo is supposedly under house arrest by the Ukie Nazis and cannot do much of anything for now. This report is probably at least a week old. I appreciate his efforts but he had to know the SBU goons would track him down.

Posted by: Jerry1 | Apr 26 2022 15:14 utc | 65

Germany selling older weapons to Ukraine the MIC are making a fortune from this conflict, what next for Ukraine will it be buying in Trebuchets and Blunerbuss's that some Nato country has lying around in an old arsenal of weapons.

"The German government has given the green light for the delivery of self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine, the country’s Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Tuesday.

Speaking at US-hosted defense talks at the American airbase Ramstein in Germany’s Rhineland-Palatinate state, Lambrecht said that the leadership in Berlin made the decision on Monday. She emphasized that Germany was “determined to help the Ukrainian people with unified resolve in this existential emergency.”

The minister explained that “Ukraine will order” hardware from German manufacturers and “Germany will pay.” Berlin would earmark some 2 billion euros to that end, Lambrecht added.

The armored vehicles in question are Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, which were decommissioned by the German military back in 2010. Designed to take out cruise missiles and aircraft, Gepards can also be used against targets on the ground. "

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 26 2022 15:16 utc | 66

‘The race is on’: Britain moves to get heavy artillery to Ukraine
LONDON — Britain’s defence secretary says allies must move quickly to supply Ukraine with heavy artillery capable of at least matching Russia.
“The race is on to equip Ukraine with the same long-range capability that Russia has so they are not outranged and indeed pinned down,” Ben Wallace told Parliamentarians April 25.
The next three weeks are key,” he added. “Ukraine needs more long-range artillery and ammunition, and both Russian and NATO caliber types to accompany them. It also seeks anti-ship missiles to counter Russian ships that are able to bombard Ukrainian cities.”. .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 15:21 utc | 67

By stealing their reserves, the West lost all power over Russia. This has sealed Ukraine's fate: The Russians now have no incentive to give up what they have conquered. It has cost them too much in terms of men and treasure.

Yes very true. I don't care about any of the rest: mistakes made or not, naïve talks, who gets what, maybe the latter, yes, and missed historical opportunities for Russia’s leaders, including Putin, to secure her emancipation by letting go of the obsession to fit into Europe and please the West.

I wrote the following in my last little post (I'm being facetious) here on Alabama, specifically page two of an earlier thread titled: EU Commission, U.S. Submit To Reality:

Treachery has shadowed Russia's pursuit of Europe for centuries.
I'll emphasize: and the present and future will not offer any exception to that rule and still ignored lesson. What I care most about, is that Putin makes a historic correction, and to do so he must crush Ukraine, and simultaneously help the U.S. crush Europe. This time, the glaring opportunity must be seized. Only then, will the Europa fantasy made in hell, that some of Russia’s leaders easily succumbed to, evaporate and finally free the Russian psyche to pursue Russia’s true destiny and cement her greatness.

Now, alas, I must get on to the subject of the good, the bad and the ugly, in reverse order.

I confess, that after a whole week boycotting the mainstream’s Ukraine coverage, I peaked in on CNN two nights in a row.

On Monday night I happened to catch Nick Robertson reporting on Anderson Cooper's hour. He's the man I love to hate, who strangely turned into the man I hate to love, when he touched on the delicate subject of Putin's loot; the safe he stashes it away in and where his safe is squirreled away. I'll spare you the sordid details.

The previous evening, Sunday night, I happened to watch the CNN film, Navalny, and discovered something I never noticed before: Navalny's just a big, goofy kid in a man’s body.

So, after that double-dose of enlightenment, I bizarrely got stuck on this iconic cleansing movie scene: come back… Shane!, since I already had my shower.

https://youtu.be/QqiFxD-VJbk

Why?
Why must I allow my mind to be besieged by a tawdry display of pitiful powerlessness when I'm a warrior-esse to my core?

Let me complete the circle: Russia too is a warrioresse and she deserves better than second place or worse in Europe.

Russia First!

Posted by: Circe | Apr 26 2022 15:26 utc | 68

As always, thanks b, for the platform. Without it, the info wars would make a mockery of truth, with little relief.

The sad truth, here in the U$A, is that the MSM is totally in the employ of the 1%ers. Cranking out information, explaining every issue without pushback, or a countervailing point of view.

Ensuring an environment that prohibits any change, or upward mobility, benefitting the working classes.

" The comfort of the rich, is dependent upon an abundance of the poor."

Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 26 2022 15:27 utc | 69

disintegration
"In an attempt to suppress Russia, the Americans, using their proteges in Kyiv, decided to create an antipode for our country, cynically choosing Ukraine for this, trying to divide an essentially single people," Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
[...]
Therefore, in his opinion, the result of the policy of the West and the Kyiv regime under its control can only be the disintegration of Ukraine into several states.

https://rg-ru.translate.goog/2022/04/26/patrushev-itogom-politiki-zapada-i-kieva-mozhet-stat-raspad-ukrainy-na-neskolko-gosudarstv.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=fr&_x_tr_hl=fr

Posted by: La Bastille | Apr 26 2022 15:27 utc | 70

A lot of what you have written is probably true, and may indeed come to pass.
However, everyone must realise that the US will never stop baiting and attacking Russia.
The only way to stop them is...... well, nuclear war!

Posted by: Dave Pollard | Apr 26 2022 15:32 utc | 71

thanks b.... no comment on gonzalo lira, but the overview is as you say 'a decent recap' for the most part... i personally share @ 33 don bacons viewpoint..

i want highlight a post on this thread and one on the previous thread that i think add value to the conversation... the post on this thread?

@ Jesrad | Apr 26 2022 13:37 utc | 30 - thanks... i share your perspective and surprised no one has responded to your insightful post..

post from the previous thread?

@ Richard Steven Hack | Apr 26 2022 7:06 utc | 242

why i think this is important is to bring greater clarity to anyone following this, are some basic underlying themes being repeated here...

the post -
"I don't know why people can't see past the simple statement of a fact and look at it in context. They always jump in and say, "Well, that can't happen because this..." Well, Afghanistan was never going to be a success. They did it. Iraq was never going to be a success. They did it. Ukraine was never going to be a success. They did it. How many more times do they have to "do it" before people get it?

The ruling elites, and the neocons, and the CIA DO NOT LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD."

rsh's beginning line was in response to a comment on poland.. i agree with richard.. poland is a key player here in all of this due the connection to nato..
"What matters is that Poland is a NATO state. Like I've been saying, if the US wants to sacrifice NATO in a war with Russia, Poland is the prime candidate to start it. That is the point at issue, not whether any of the Polish elites pipe dreams are possible."

thanks richard..


Posted by: james | Apr 26 2022 15:32 utc | 72

Word is that Russia turned off the taps of gas to Poland just today.

Posted by: KS | Apr 26 2022 15:44 utc | 73

Flohmarkt
At a time when the whole of Europe's media and political swamp are congratulating themselves on the militaristic hysterization and are getting behind Germany to lead the offensive to East, I found some common sense on Wikipedia! (sic)
This "Guepard" is a joke.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard
Like the 10 French self-propelled guns "Cesar".
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAESAR_self-propelled_howitzer

Posted by: La Bastille | Apr 26 2022 15:44 utc | 74

re: Kim | Apr 26 2022 14:38 utc | 55

Can someone point me to some report(s) about the fire at the british armoury not long after the Moscow sank?


Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 14:16 utc | 41

I read through much of the link. certainly there is much that is correct in Putin's meticulous planning and minimizing risks. But that is overlaid by projection. Projecting western politicians lust for personal power onto all others.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 14:27 utc | 48

Goodman basically puts Putin and Russian organised crime in the same world, of the same world. I'm happy that pindos doesn't seem to get it - but what do I know and he is -
Andrew Goodman retired from the Senior Foreign Service in 2009 after over 30 years mostly devoted to dealing with the USSR and Russia. He has taught courses on Russian foreign policy at Columbia University, the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Mary Washington University.

Posted by: tucenz | Apr 26 2022 15:44 utc | 75

re: Kim | Apr 26 2022 14:38 utc | 55

Can someone point me to some report(s) about the fire at the british armoury not long after the Moscow sank?


Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 14:16 utc | 41

I read through much of the link. certainly there is much that is correct in Putin's meticulous planning and minimizing risks. But that is overlaid by projection. Projecting western politicians lust for personal power onto all others.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2022 14:27 utc | 48

Goodman basically puts Putin and Russian organised crime in the same world, of the same world. I'm happy that pindos doesn't seem to get it - but what do I know and he is -
Andrew Goodman retired from the Senior Foreign Service in 2009 after over 30 years mostly devoted to dealing with the USSR and Russia. He has taught courses on Russian foreign policy at Columbia University, the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Mary Washington University.

Posted by: tucenz | Apr 26 2022 15:44 utc | 76

For starters, Crimea would never be donated to a future State of Novorussiya.

Posted by: Shyaku | Apr 26 2022 15:47 utc | 77

Former US-NATO commander wants to put troops on the ground in Ukraine . .Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove is the latest high profile official to catch the war fever and advocate direct U.S. conflict with Russia.
Former NATO top commander Gen. Philip Breedlove is the latest big name to come out for putting troops on the ground in Ukraine. Breedlove, who has been angling for weeks for a more muscular policy against Russia, told The Times of London that it’s time for real action. And he may have the ear of the White House: the article says he’s named as one of “several high-ranking retired commanders advising the Biden administration on Ukraine.”
“So what could the West do? Well, right now there are no Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. So why don’t we put Nato troops into western Ukraine to carry out humanitarian missions and to set up a forward arms supply base?”. .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2022 15:49 utc | 78

With all the posts here, Let's not lose sight of the fact; that, all this war has brought, should be laid at the feet of the U$A, and the corporate monsters they enable, in their quest to weaken Russia.

ALL for money..

Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 26 2022 15:49 utc | 79

A most intriguing development.

That which is too goo to be true, usually is...............

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Apr 26 2022 15:50 utc | 80

Glad that Lira is alive. That said, Gonzalo is an outspoken bigot against the LGBTQ+ community, of which I am a member. Which is ironic, since that is the attitude of the Nazis he supposedly detests.

In any event, there's enough hate and violence directed towards my community without his contributing more. So with all due respect, Gonzalo, how about you just STFU.

Posted by: Trisha | Apr 26 2022 15:50 utc | 81

Posted by: donten | Apr 26 2022 13:39 utc | 31


Why anyone bothers with Lira...He is a shameless self-promoter.

I frequently get served a good meal by a shitty waiter.
Would that it were otherwise but the food is still excellent.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 26 2022 15:51 utc | 82

Posted by: Trisha | Apr 26 2022 15:50 utc | 81


Glad that Lira is alive. That said, Gonzalo is an outspoken bigot against the LGBTQ+ community, of which I am a member

So is Putin, for that matter ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 26 2022 15:53 utc | 83

There is absolutely, as the Russian flag now flies over liberated regions, no doubt that the Novorossiyans will vote to join Russia proper.

In fact, many of them already did as they voted for independence, in 2014, but Russia was not ready and so they had to endure 8 years of fascist hell and NATO building up its proxy army of Nazi zombies.

The only thing they want now is for Russia to stay this time and protect them. They are home now Russia will not only stay but make sure that no Nazi's or NATO's will ever threaten these lands again.

Posted by: mikhas | Apr 26 2022 15:53 utc | 84


But Russia is never trying to be two or three steps away. They could for instance have destroyed the railway network a month ago, but chose not to. As if they only used their trump cards only when absolutely necessary. It's a kind of conservative way of doing war. Will it work, or does it only provide Ukraine and Nato successive respites, never knocking them down for good ?

I think that Russia wants to avoid escalating the war more than what is required at the present moment, Russia's military planning knows the western complete lack of correct strategic thinking makes a nuclear war a very credible threat, and Russia knows that it needs to manage the American warmongers like Blinken and Nuland carefully, so they don't do something stupid.

Posted by: MarcoRiodeJaneiroBR | Apr 26 2022 15:56 utc | 85

Posted by: Down South | Apr 26 2022 14:43 utc | 58


In Ukraine, they openly declare preparations for an offensive on Transnistria.
"Ukraine has the legal right to demilitarize the military facilities of the Russian troops threatening us...

If this goes ahead they will be giving Putin the best cassus belli he could have hoped for.
It's going to muddy the EU/US propaganda waters even future as the 'victim' begins to look more and more like a villain.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 26 2022 16:05 utc | 86

Any analysis of Ukraine that doesn’t even mention the Zionist intentions and machinations is incomplete and even dishonest.

Posted by: Obamavirus | Apr 26 2022 16:08 utc | 87

Posted by: Down South | Apr 26 2022 14:43 utc | 58


In Ukraine, they openly declare preparations for an offensive on Transnistria.
"Ukraine has the legal right to demilitarize the military facilities of the Russian troops threatening us...

On further thought, I suspect the Transdnistrians are going to put such a fight they might not actually need Russian support. It might turn out to be further embarrassment for Ukraine ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 26 2022 16:08 utc | 88

Posted by: Trisha | Apr 26 2022 15:50 utc | 81

With all due respect,how about you and your community stop shoving your fuked up shit, in my face and at my Children.

Posted by: Kim | Apr 26 2022 16:09 utc | 89

Posted by: Micron | Apr 26 2022 11:34 utc | 1

Russia is probably looking at Korean War which expanded from a "police action" as USA called it to a major conflict with PROC intervening and Soviet pilots in Chinese. MiGs. USA was driven away from Yalu River.

Russia wanted to draw out its enemies and it has. Using limited forces and highly mobile tactics it has exposed all the former Warsaw Pact nations and drawn NATO into the open. The plans have been developed over long periods as OSCE Revelations make clear.

China now knows exactly where it stands.

It is the last chance the USA has to destroy Russia.

It is however the last time the USA will have such a chance.

Whatever happens - as Putin said - whether Russia survives or not - the world will end with it.

When stupid little has-beens like UK threaten Russia you know the Johnson regime is demented - 9 days before key national elections and Ben Wallace threatened thermonuclear war from a country with fewer warheads than Pakistan !

This is so demented

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 26 2022 16:09 utc | 90

I am reading that Russia has shut off gas to Poland which might be a monkey wrench in plans for NATO to use Poland for their aggression....which EU country will be next?

As I have written before, this world war is going to be over much more quickly than folks realize, one way or another. Russia and China are not in this "game" to make their military sector rich....

Are there any adults in the God of Mammon cult? I suggest they start negotiating with Russia and China.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2022 16:11 utc | 91

@ 89; Mmmmmm-bigot anyone?

Posted by: vetinLA | Apr 26 2022 16:14 utc | 92

single issue people are so yesterday...

Posted by: james | Apr 26 2022 16:18 utc | 93

agreed on possible future referendums. crimea went that way and hasn't looked back so it's very doable.

as for the "needlessly killed" ukies, nothing's stopping them from bringing back the grand tradition started in vietnam and known as "fragging". their dumbass COs have to sleep sometime. maybe some sort of amnesty for anyone who tosses a grenade at a snoozing azov?

Posted by: the pair | Apr 26 2022 16:19 utc | 94

i guess poland can get its energy supplies from the usa now, lol.... go nato puppy!

Posted by: james | Apr 26 2022 16:23 utc | 95

Busy day today. Poland doesn't pay their gas bill and the smart stock to buy is Charcoal Briquets. The gas is now off!

Germany is sending tanks through Poland to the east. The last time that happened, Berlin ended up looking like a rock quarry.

Reports From Ukraine

Posted by: Will | Apr 26 2022 16:25 utc | 96

If Russia ends up in control of the south and east of the country, then surely they are leaving those newly acquired regions open to a prolonged guerrilla war from the rump Ukrainian state, fuelled by longer range weapons provided by Nato/EU?
If they don't end the threat now, they will only have to do so later. They need to take the whole country, if that is within their capability.

Posted by: D J G | Apr 26 2022 16:37 utc | 97

Once librated the people in those areas will vote on becoming independent from Ukraine and the various regions, Donbas, Luhansk, Kherson, Odessa, will form states that will become part of the Federal Republic of Novorossia.
Those statelets will soon vote to join the RF.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2022 16:42 utc | 98

The Polish elite remind me of scabies given the constant irritation they cause. Russia has opted to treat the problem by granting Poland's desire to be cutoff from Russian hydrocarbons. The decision also means no gas for anyone via the Yamal pipeline. And that also means no transit fees for Poland.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2022 16:46 utc | 99

@John Chemist | Apr 26 2022 11:59 utc | 4

Sorry to be skeptical, but is this really Gonzalo Lira? Why make up a new account when he - prior to his kidnapping - warned against imposters on Twitter and to only trust @realgonzalolira?
Listen to the interviews from after his release from the SBU. Thet took all his devices and all the passwords to his accounts were changed. The only valid site now is twitter @GonzaloLira1968

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2022 16:46 utc | 100

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