Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 19, 2022

What Will Be The Geographic End State Of The War In Ukraine

The Ukrainian National Security Advisor has sent a letter to the White House and the CIA to request money in support of an insurgency in Russian held areas:

The document, dated March 6, asked the U.S. "to allocate additional funds for the organization of the resistance movement and voluntary formations of territorial communities throughout Ukraine."

The White House and the Ukrainian embassy vehemently deny that the letter is real. I however do not believe that it is faked. It just was not meant to become public. The CIA has been training 'resistance' militia in the Ukraine since 2015. To request new money for more of it is only natural.

The U.S. will finance a resistance in Ukraine through the CIA just as it did in Syria and just like it did from 1949 until the early 1950s when the U.S. financed anti-Soviet insurgency in Ukraine ended in misery.

But resistance against whom?

The premise seems to be that Russia wants to occupy the Ukraine.

It can be seen in an English language interview the Turkish state TV channel TRT had with Vitaly Klitschko, the mayor of Kiev. Klitschko accuses Russia of wanting to recreate the USSR. He rejects any negotiations for peace and wants the Ukraine to keep fighting.

After the interview the historian Gilbert Doctorow pointed out that it was Russia which first left the USSR to end the financing of outlaying provinces at the center's cost and that no one wants to recreate that situation.

As Putin ones said:

Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.

Russia has limited aims in Ukraine and will end the war and leave most of the Ukraine when those aims are achieved either by negotiations or by other means. It is the Ukraine that will have to bear the cost for it.

But Zelenski, Klitschko and the U.S. overlords do not want to see it that way. The U.S. wants to keep Russia in the Ukraine to fight it to the last Ukrainian and to damage it that way.

The Washington Post writes that there seems to be no Ukrainian urge to negotiate anything:

The prospects of a near-term deal look bleak, diplomats say, but mixed signals from Zelensky about how close he is to striking an agreement have only heightened anxiety about the trajectory of the negotiations.
...
“I’m ready for dialogue; we’re not ready for capitulation,” Zelensky told ABC News earlier this week, while vowing to continue fighting Russia for as long as necessary.

Zelensky reiterated that message in even stronger terms on Tuesday when the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia traveled to Kyiv to meet him in a risky wartime visit. “He showed very little interest in a negotiated settlement and said Ukraine needed to keep fighting until Putin altered his demands,” said a diplomat familiar with the discussions, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive meetings.

The U.S. seems to be happy with that stand and the secretary of state even wants to widen the war:

“There’s no indication on our end that the Ukrainians are suing for peace. They want to fight,” said a senior U.S. official.
...
Zelensky will have to sell any peace deal to his own people — a tricky task if he is forced to concede too much. He has been a wildly popular wartime president, but he was an unpopular peacetime one. And Ukraine’s westward ambitions have only been strengthened by Russia’s assault.
...
Any potential deal will also require buy-in from the West, which will need to lift sanctions on Moscow in exchange for its withdrawal of Russian forces.

But Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that a simple withdrawal of troops may not meet a U.S. standard for sanctions relief. The United States “will want to make sure that anything that’s done is, in effect, irreversible, that this can’t happen again, that Russia won’t pick up and do exactly what it’s doing in a year or two years or three years.”

The only way to get to that end state is the total dismantling of Russia. That may indeed be what Blinken has in mind. What plans does he have to make it happen?

When the war to disarm the Ukraine started to my utter surprise I asked what Russia would desire as the geographic end state of the war:

It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorossiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.


bigger

This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.

The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.

Novorossiya was mention by Putin on April 17 2014 during a long Q&A session on Russian TV. The question was about federalization of Ukraine before new government elections in the just regime changed Ukraine.

Putin responded:

Regarding the question of what should come first: a constitutional referendum followed by elections, or elections first to stabilise the situation and then a referendum. The essential issue is how to ensure the legitimate rights and interests of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in the southeast of Ukraine. I would like to remind you that what was called Novorossiya (New Russia) back in the tsarist days – Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Nikolayev and Odessa – were not part of Ukraine back then. These territories were given to Ukraine in the 1920s by the Soviet government. Why? Who knows. They were won by Potyomkin and Catherine the Great in a series of well-known wars. The centre of that territory was Novorossiysk, so the region is called Novorossiya. Russia lost these territories for various reasons, but the people remained.

At that time Putin did not threaten to take Novorossiya but demanded full rights for its population:

Today, they live in Ukraine, and they should be full citizens of their country. That’s what this is all about. The issue is not whether the referendum on decentralisation or federalisation is followed by elections or the elections come before the architecture of the state is changed. The key issue is providing guarantees to these people. Our role is to facilitate a solution in Ukraine, to ensure that there are guarantees. People from southeast Ukraine will ask you, will ask us and the current authorities in Kiev: “Fine, the elections will be held on May 25, but do you want us to recognise their outcome? You’ll forget your promises the very next day and send new oligarchs to Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk, and so on. What about guarantees? We need answers.” I hope that an answer will be found.

No answer was found then and Kiev has since strongly discriminated against those Russian people.

Novorossiya roughly includes the red and yellow areas in the above map. It also includes the valuable Soviet developed iron ore mines and factories of Kryvyi Rih west of the Dnieper river.

Two professional Russia experts now agree with my prediction above but chose slightly different borders than I had originally proposed:

In his latest piece the Canadian Russia specialist Patrick Armstrong writes:

I still do not think that [Russia wants to take ownership of Ukraine] – I believe that Moscow wants a neutral and de-nazified Ukraine that is a buffer between it and NATO. I am also coming to believe that Novorossiya, more or less in its historical borders as formed by Katherine when recovered from the Ottomans, will be independent. The chance that it would remain part of Ukraine has probably passed. As I wrote in 2014 “In short, the West broke Ukraine, it now owns it. Or, to put it more precisely, it owns that part that Moscow doesn’t want. And what part that is is entirely up to Moscow to choose“. Moscow is choosing now.

In a new piece about the coming partitioning of Ukraine Gilbert Doctorow agrees:

I do not deny that a Ukrainian insurgency is a plausible next phase to the war, especially given the irrational position on ‘compromises’ that we see in Klitschko’s interview. However, there are obvious ways for the Kremlin to respond so as to contain the risks to themselves. To begin with, they can realize the threat Putin issued before the war began: to deprive Ukraine of its statehood. Not entirely, but to deprive them of the state in the configuration that has existed since 1991. This means to partition Ukraine, to hive off the territories west of Kiev and the Dnieper River, forming a land-locked rump state with its capital logically in Lviv, near the Polish frontier.

To use the language of the banking community, Russia would thereby create a ‘bad bank,’ containing the poisonous assets of Ukrainian radicalism, very few industrial or other major economic assets, and removed to a distance no longer threatening to Russia. The ‘good bank’ would be central Ukraine, the territories east of the Dniepr River, which have a considerably larger population of Russian speakers, who should respond to Russia’s call to defend their own interests in the public life of the country and come out from the bullying they were subjected to by the nationalists over the past 8 years. This central Ukraine would receive back the Black Sea coast now occupied by the Russians and would enjoy the agricultural and other major economic assets that always defined Ukrainian prosperity.

The areas that Armstrong, Doctorow and I describe have largely Russian speaking pro-Russian populations. Yesterday some 30,000 people left the besiege Mariupol and several of them were interviewed. They all spoke out against the Azov Nazis who still hold parts of the city. They likely would not mind to become citizens of a newly founded Novorossiya that does not submit to a Russian hating government in Kiev or elsewhere.

But to hold that land Russia must first gain it. So how will the war proceed?

Russia will slowly grind down the Ukrainian defenses and then move further into Ukraine up to the new border it wants to achieve. (I do not think that it will include taking Kiev. Russia is currently just threatening it to bind Ukrainian troops.)  It will hold there and help to organize a referendum for the independence from Ukraine in the areas it will hold by then. A new local militia army will be formed to defend that state. Russia will recognize the new state and sign a common defense agreement with it.

Russian troops can then go back to Russia.

As those areas are largely pro-Russian there will be little chance for an effective insurgency within them.

Posted by b on March 19, 2022 at 16:31 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Vitaly Klitschko This guy is making sure his people get hurt
What heroism is there in that? He thinks he is experiencing the siege of Leningrad but he is actually experiencing the siege of Berlin.

Posted by: Oisin | Mar 19 2022 16:58 utc | 1

Again, there was no such thing as Ukraine in 1654. There was no word equating to Ukraine or Ukrainian. In 1654 the yellow area on the map was Cossacks. Pink area on map was added to Russia by Catherine. Added to Russia, not Ukraine. Excepting area around Kiev, which was already Russia. Green area was Poland/Lithuania, added to Russia. Ukraine is a neologism from 1880s.

The map as displayed is propaganda.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 19 2022 16:59 utc | 2

This is what I had suggested the outcome should be in 2014, once Ukraine went hardline on eliminating Russian language and culture. It is a shame it could not have been done peacefully back then.

An olive branch by Russia could be allowing them to keep Odessa as trading port, with no military infrastructure.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Mar 19 2022 17:00 utc | 3

Last night as I drifted off to sleep, I wondered what would be the implications if Hezbollah were to join the battle in Ukraine, alongside the Russian forces, the Chechens and others:

And today, what do I see on Southfront's front page?


On March 18, Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, denied that the group had been fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

A number of Arab news outlets have been circulating reports claiming that Hezbollah dispatched fighters and advisors experienced with urban warfare to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in the country. The source of these claims has been mainly the Ukrainian Military Staff.

Speaking at the 37th anniversary ceremenoney of the Hezbollah-affiliated al-Mahdi Scouts, Nasrallah denied these news reports, calling them “lies” and “rumors”.

“I categorically deny such rumors. These are baseless lies and rumors. Hezbollah did not dispatch any fighter or expert to Ukraine,” the leader said.

Methinks the Secretary General doth protest too much ...

It would make sense, if it were not fiction, for the best in resistance warfare to be brought in to counter any potential guerilla insurgency funded by the CIA.

If it is not true now, I sense that it will become true shortly.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 19 2022 17:02 utc | 4

The areas that Armstrong, Doctorow and I describe have largely Russian speaking pro-Russian populations. Yesterday some 30,000 people left the besiege Mariupol and several of them were interviewed.

Anybody knows where to find these interviews?

Posted by: ABCDEFGH | Mar 19 2022 17:06 utc | 5

Take it all the way to the Dnieper river and some of the west bank of it. No sense in giving the Ukro-crazies control if any part of that waterway to dam up or poison.

Posted by: Woogs | Mar 19 2022 17:08 utc | 6

The slow advance of Russian troops in Ukraine shows that NATO's fearmongering about some huge Siberian tiger force is fake; Putin commands only a paper tiger. Ukraine doesn't need a NATO and neither do bigger states like Germany, France, Italy or the UK. Bye bye US; France even has has its own nuclear big stick for threatening to go MAD.

Japan could free itself too from uncle $cam by joining the club of MADmen, or Saudi Arabia. Multi-polarity through multiple nuclei.

Posted by: Antonym | Mar 19 2022 17:10 utc | 7

Both Parties Are Two Wings of the Same Bird - Headed by the CIA/Mossad & MIC
Complex of Too Big Too Fail/Jail Corporations & Banksters - Taking Control of Middle East Oil Supply & pipeline Networks.

America Is 'Bankrupt' - 30 Trillion National Debt????

Been At War Since The 'Skull N Bones' Bushes Staged 911 Event.

Posted by: JohnF | Mar 19 2022 17:10 utc | 8

Makes sense to me.

I like the "bad bank" analogy for the rump that is left.

I just struggle to see what you and others describe as the end game for what is going on. I continue to see Ukraine as the advance point of challenge to empire and an attempt to neuter/end NATO.

Ukraine is just the wake up call to nations that a new order is emerging "out of the closet" so to speak. The out of the closet part to me is the creation of an alternative system of finance that is created/operated by and for sovereign nations instead of the God of Mammon cult

While parsing Ukraine geo-politically may be part of the game I see, it is not the end point of the efforts by those involved, IMO. Russia does not want to try to maintain military superiority but to use what it has to force the world wide geo-political system to change....by creating an alternative axis with China......"to break THE bank" (using another apt finance analogy) and create a bi/multi-polar world

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 19 2022 17:11 utc | 9

Here they are:

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
https://patrickarmstrong.ca/

Posted by: bevin | Mar 19 2022 17:13 utc | 10

I think a solution to this is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine proved two things.

A: The US and NATO don't actually care enough to fight Russia over an invasion of Ukraine proving this both to Ukraine but also to the US itself.
B: That Russia will, even with all the incentives in the world laid against it, do this to prevent Ukraine becoming a kind of Poland on it's border.

So when thinking about just how to create an enforcement of Ukrainian neutrality, it comes somewhat implicitly as a result of the invasion in and of itself. Nothing else is necessary.

Having said all that, I'm not optimistic. Russia's chance was to end this quickly and decisively before the rest of the world could compose themselves, our hyper media age means we are now completely desensitised to it all just weeks in. That moment to end this quickly and stably is gone I fear. And I'm not so sure that creating a majority Russian-speaking (Though how many of those people are actually ethnic Ukrainians who speak Russian) buffer state with a now very hostile core Ukrainian state beside it is going to solve too many problems.

Posted by: Altai | Mar 19 2022 17:23 utc | 11

The only way to get to that end state is the total dismantling of Russia. That may indeed be what Blinken has in mind. What plans does he have to make it happen?

May I suggest Blinken needs to be secured in a double-padded room.

”When the war to disarm the Ukraine started to my utter surprise I asked what Russia would desire as the geographic end state of the war:
It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?”

My concern is seeking 'treaties and guarantees' that are proven to be easily dispensed with at the stroke of 11:00 AM. That paper is as valuable as a used tissue.
I will be well satisfied with a rump Ukraine with itsthe eastern boundary of the lands added in 1939-1945. The lands added in 1654-1917 with a new end boundary west of the Dnieper be declared a demilitarized buffer.
All the residue lands from west bank of the Dnieper, and lands added in 1654 and 1922 be Novorossiya aligned with Russia.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 19 2022 17:24 utc | 12

>>>>: Arch Bungle | Mar 19 2022 17:02 utc | 4

If it is not true now, I sense that it will become true shortly.

You're an idiot.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 19 2022 17:25 utc | 13

Those divisions mentioned are logical and desirable, It is the denazification, especially militarily provisioned as this decadence will continue to be that's an ornery problem. Decapitation and liquidation--messy, a moral wasteland. The US/minions will watch in permissive "horror." They could care less about Ukrainian lives. Creating a cold war within Ukraine itself will be most likely.

Posted by: Carnabystreet Pete | Mar 19 2022 17:31 utc | 14

>>>>: Antonym | Mar 19 2022 17:10 utc | 7

The slow advance of Russian troops in Ukraine shows that NATO's fearmongering about some huge Siberian tiger force is fake; Putin commands only a paper tiger.

Stop reading most American military experts' (including sadly Pat Lang) views on what is happening in Ukraine, they don't have a clue because they view war through American eyes. How many wars has United States really won, not just been on the winning side?

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 19 2022 17:32 utc | 15


March 18, 2022.
Video call Joe Biden and Xi Jinping - discussion on Ukraine conflict:

Biden warned against giving material support to Russia and that there would be consequences.

In reply, Xi is reported in the readout - indicates no change in China’s stance towards Russia:

Let he who tied the bell on the tiger’s neck take it off.”

Xinhua English readout
https://english.news.cn/20220319/3e721d52bec440dc913f4ffdc68106c7/c.html

"All sides need to jointly support Russia and Ukraine in having dialogue and negotiation that will produce results and lead to peace," Xi said, adding that the U.S. and NATO should also have dialogue with Russia to address the crux of the Ukraine crisis and ease the security concerns of both Russia and Ukraine.[.]

"As leaders of major countries, we need to think about how to properly address global hotspot issues and, more importantly, keep in mind global stability and the work and life of billions of people," Xi said.

Sweeping and indiscriminate sanctions would only make the people suffer. If further escalated, they could trigger serious crises in global economy and trade, finance, energy, food, and industrial and supply chains, crippling the already languishing world economy and causing irrevocable losses, Xi added.

"The more complex the situation, the greater the need to remain cool-headed and rational," Xi said, adding that whatever the circumstances, there is always a need for political courage to create space for peace and leave room for political settlement.

"As two Chinese sayings go, 'It takes two hands to clap.' 'He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it off.' It is imperative that the parties involved demonstrate political will and find a proper settlement in view of both immediate and long-term needs," Xi said.

= = = =

Nearing a rupture of diplomacy.

Partygate Bojo best become self-sufficient

UK PM Johnson Says He Can't See Return of 'Normal Relations' With Putin
"To try to re-normalise relations with Putin after this, as we did in 2014, would be to make exactly the same mistake again", Johnson told a Conservative Party conference.

Russia Will Not Initiate Improvement of Relations With West – Lavrov

"We, of course, remain open to cooperation with any countries, including Western ones. Although given the way the West has behaved, we are not going to come up with any initiatives. Let's see how they will get out of the impasse they have driven themselves into", Lavrov said on the margins of the Leaders of Russia management competition. (Highlight added)

https://sputniknews.com/20220319/live-updates-kiev-admits-ukraine-lost-access-to-sea-of-azov-1094001490.html

Mr. Kinzhal went for a stroll, had lunch at a Ukrainian Military Depot.

"On 18 March, the Kinzhal aviation missile system with hypersonic aero-ballistic missiles destroyed a large underground depot of missiles and aviation ammunition of Ukrainian troops in the settlement of Delyatyn, Ivano-Frankovsk region", 

The big assets are now deployed. Patience running thin?

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 19 2022 17:34 utc | 16

It seems a little ambitious to ask about the future map of Ukraine considering there are no decent current maps.

Posted by: too scents | Mar 19 2022 17:43 utc | 17

From Russian MOD.

During a special military operation, an employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) Main Directorate for Donetsk and Lugansk regions voluntarily surrendered to Russian servicemen.

▫️This officer was directly involved in organizing the training of sabotage and terrorist groups to work in areas liberated from the nationalists.

▫️The SSU officer provided detailed information regarding all persons involved in conducting sabotage activities on the territory of Donbass.

▫️I bring to the attention of all persons recruited by the SSU that voluntary renunciation of criminal activity and timely notification of it to law enforcement agencies releases from criminal liability.

▫️In addition, the SSU officer reported on terrorist acts planned by militants of the nationalist Azov battalion in Lvov against employees and facilities of diplomatic missions of the United States and other Western countries.

▫️I want to emphasize that the leadership of the Kiev regime is aware of the plans of the nationalists, but does not take any action to prevent their implementation.

▫️The Kiev nationalist regime plans to present attacks on diplomatic facilities of the United States and Western countries as an alleged targeted attack by the Russian Armed Forces.

▫️The main purpose of the provocation is to increase pressure on NATO countries to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine and provide additional weapons.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine

Posted by: Kim | Mar 19 2022 17:46 utc | 18

Likklemore@16 Im going w right tool for the job

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Mar 19 2022 17:48 utc | 19

I guess that LOC demarkation is a thing of the past. It's nice to know that the folks on the eastern side of it are enjoying some well-deserved peace and quiet.

Everything is under wraps.

Peace from Russia.

Posted by: john | Mar 19 2022 17:49 utc | 20

The United States “will want to make sure that anything that’s done is, in effect, irreversible, that this can’t happen again, that Russia won’t pick up and do exactly what it’s doing in a year or two years or three years.”

Posted by b on March 19, 2022 at 16:31 UTC | Permalink

If that is the goal, then why the hell do the EU states have to strengthen their military forces? Poland wants to double their troops, Germany wants to pour 100 billion extra into their Bundeswehr and so on and so forth...

If there's no Russia then who the hell do they expect to be the next "aggressor"?

Ah, I know, NATO is not a defensive force anymore, it's for intervention and they now build it up for intervening when China tries to get back Taiwan.

Posted by: zet | Mar 19 2022 17:52 utc | 21

Posted by: Woogs | Mar 19 2022 17:08 utc | 6

Take it all the way to the Dnieper river and some of the west bank of it. No sense in giving the Ukro-crazies control if any part of that waterway to dam up or poison.

Man, you definitely have a picture.
If this was a real bar, I would buy you a drink for this.

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 19 2022 17:52 utc | 22

''The winner takes it all
The loser's standing small
Beside the victory
That's 'Ukraine' destiny''

Posted by: Nick | Mar 19 2022 17:53 utc | 23

I disagree but could of course be wrong. I find it more likely that Ukraine will be reestablished with the exception of Crimea and become a union state like Belarus. Denazification is the process towards this.

To me that seems to be the only stable outcome that takes Russian security interests fully into account and I don't see why the Russians wouldn't choose it. To me it seems the fight is essentially over already and the current Ukrainian regime doesn't have any agency left.

This isn't meant to say that it won't take time but I also think the Russians will happily spend a decade making it reality, if needed.

Again I could be entirely wrong about all of this.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 19 2022 17:54 utc | 24

Posted by: zet | Mar 19 2022 17:52 utc | 21

I'm not sure NATO was ever solely a defensive force; it was equally a tool for US domination of Europe. Charles de Gaulle recognized that.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Mar 19 2022 17:57 utc | 25

I agree. The overall picture at this time is

1. Unwillingness of Zelenskyy and the White House staff to settle through negotiations with Moscow.

2. US is on the path of morphing the Russian operation into an insurrection warfare with massive US/NATO support. The classic form of US warfare! I would consider the introduction of new weaponry and mercenaries in Ukraine by the US/NATO as a de-facto declaration of war on Russia.

How Russia will handle that is still a mystery.

Without a negotiated outcome, the victorious alone decides what happens of the current territory of Ukraine.

Posted by: Richard L | Mar 19 2022 17:58 utc | 26

And (perhaps in before anyone says it): I assume the talk about neutrality was aimed at the current regime in case they were truly willing to negotiate for peace and doesn't apply to or isn't a hindrance to a future Ukraine wanting to be a union state.

Seems possible and plausible to me :)

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 19 2022 18:04 utc | 27

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 19 2022 16:59 utc | 2

Ukraine is a neologism from 1880s.

Sure, but you can say the same thing about Canada for example. And including the land accretion map too.
Nobody makes a fuss about it, but of course Canada is not hostile to UK/US and did not side with their enemies. If it did, I am sure it would be reminded to who it owes its existence and wellbeing.

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 19 2022 18:05 utc | 28

Canada's intent and purpose in its massive financial and military 'support' of Ukraine was succinctly stated by its Foreign Affairs minister, Melanie Joly on CBC recently...

'Our Goal is to Suffocate the Russian Regime'

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2007369283685

Just as Canada's foreign policy towards Israel is determined by the powerful domestic Zionist lobby, so too is that towards Ukraine, formulated by a powerful Ukrainian ultranationalist lobby, to which the Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, is deeply connected. And servile of course to the whims of Biden's Washington, to which Canada has long been a faithful shoe-shine boy.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 19 2022 18:10 utc | 29

"Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain."

This is the quintessential Russian national socialist view. Russia as the keeper of eligible protectorates, overseeing the management of industrial infrastructure and reaping available surpluses in return. KISS principle.

Posted by: reante | Mar 19 2022 18:10 utc | 30

Altai | Mar 19 2022 17:23 utc | 11
"Russia's chance was to end this quickly and decisively before the rest of the world could compose themselves"
You seem to suggest something similar to what the US tried to do to Irak. What would be the end game? Leaving later with a population embittered by the wholesale destruction and then supportive of extremists (ISIS then, neonazis now)? The US had the advantage that its attacks/invasions were in countries either very weak (e.g. Grenada), or weak and far from its land.

Posted by: Carlos | Mar 19 2022 18:11 utc | 31

To understand Ukraine's mess, one needs to understand the Zaporozhian Cossacks issue. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporozhian_Cossacks

Posted by: Nick | Mar 19 2022 18:14 utc | 32

Insurgencies cannot exist without popular support, so it is highly unlikely that such a tactic will work in areas predominantly populated by ethnic Russians.

Posted by: Trisha | Mar 19 2022 18:19 utc | 33

Within his "Three Questions" thread, Saker provides a map of what I initially thought would be the rump Ukraine when the dust settled once this all started. But now my appraisal is that area would need to be cleansed of Nazis prior to it becoming rump Ukraine. Recent polling shows 90% of Russians want to be rid of all the Nazis, not just a portion. IMO the deployment of the Kinzhal is a direct message to NATO states that will be "asked" to abandon NATO since they abut Russia's borders when we arrive at that step in the process.

For those who missed it, "CIA: Undermining and Nazifying Ukraine Since 1953". And I highly suggest watching the video of Putin's Crimean Concert Speech that makes US politico's patriotic rallies very second rate.

And as for the question of Peace, I wrote "A Short Missive on THE Issue of Our Times: “If we are ever to restore peace, then we need to understand where the hostility comes from, how, and why”.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 19 2022 18:22 utc | 34

I don't know how it is going to end, but:

1. Crimea is Russian since 2014
2. Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics have been recognized by Russia in their former Oblast borders. They will remain.

So the question is about the rest.

Given the goal of denazification and demilitarization, is it possible to leave some area in the west in control by the Nazis with US/NATO support? Not likely. There is already bombing going in the west on, ref. Kinzahl attack confirmed by Russian MOD.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2022 18:28 utc | 35

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 19 2022 17:54 utc | 24
I find it more likely that Ukraine will be reestablished with the exception of Crimea and become a union state like Belarus. Denazification is the process towards this.

I agree, this is the good way.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 19 2022 18:29 utc | 36

I'm not sure NATO was ever solely a defensive force; it was equally a tool for US domination of Europe. Charles de Gaulle recognized that.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Mar 19 2022 17:57 utc | 25

I agree – just wanted to point out and ask why not a single citizen of the EU is realizing that all this just doesn't make any sense whatsoever :D

Posted by: zet | Mar 19 2022 18:33 utc | 37

Posted by: zet | Mar 19 2022 17:52 utc | 21
sorry, I misinterpreted your post, which I agree with anyway.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Mar 19 2022 18:36 utc | 38

@zet | Mar 19 2022 18:33 utc | 37

There are no "citizens of the EU"

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2022 18:42 utc | 39

Klitschko was an excellent boxer, he is utter crap as a national leader.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Mar 19 2022 18:43 utc | 40

We take Russia at her word. Crimea surrendered unconditionally. The ethnic Russian peoples of the 'east' protected and self-governed. The de-Russia-fication of Ukraine stopped and reversed and military neutrality signed, sealed and delivered. If the 'west' cannot see its way to surrender (can you see that?) then yeah, Russia absorbs the 'east' as the 'west' continues its journey as a 'western' welfare state.

Posted by: gottlieb | Mar 19 2022 18:45 utc | 41

Russia takes whole Ukraine, clenses of nazis. Novorossya is declared as independent, taking 2/3 eastern parts. Ukraine is left as western remnant, independent country but with severely limited decision making (east germany redux), with some form of Russian control over it. Nazis not welcome there any more, and with heavy anti insurgency/police work there.

And all those nazis that escaped to neighboring countries will not be let back in, let the host countries deal with them.

That is one scenario. I don't thing Russia will just let what's left of Ukraine to go it's merry way to become another problem in decade or so.

Posted by: Abe | Mar 19 2022 18:47 utc | 42

Go back to sleep Arch

Posted by: Jezabeel | Mar 19 2022 18:53 utc | 43

There was no insurgency in Crimea after they voted to join the Russian federation. From what I understand most of the Ukrainian military folded into the Russian army. In the eastern region most of the fighting is done by Ukrainian Russians with air support, logistical support, engineering support, and counter fire provided by the Russian Federation.

I suspect it will be the same for new provinces formed coming out of this mess. If the ethnic Ukrainians decide to lob missiles and what not into the new provinces will the Russian Federation treat them like Israel treats Syria with weekly strikes? Will they take a somewhat hands off approach like they did with the new states formed after 2014 and the firing along the line of control?

Something will be formed and the Russians will mostly go home but NATO will not give up on stirring the pot. They may even fold what is left into NATO and then it will really be game on. One ounce of prevention is that the Pentagrams war doctrine will not allow them to move without all forces and equipment is in place and staged. It would require millions of men and trillions in material. The wreckage would be awesome.

The West is absolutely desperate to take down Russia. They need it economically integrated on their terms. If that happens the Russian people will devolve back into serfdom. Nothing more than slaves on a Western plantation of raw materials.

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 19 2022 18:55 utc | 44

Sorry, b, I disagree completely.

I'm with Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov. Russia will take the entirety of Ukraine - "capture" it, to use Gonzalo Lira's term. It will not, however, "occupy" it except very temporarily and only in the major cities.

The process will look something like this:
1) It will go all the way to the Polish border and seal that border using drones and the usual surveillance means to keep undesirables out.
2) It will identify, locate and arrest all members of neo-Nazi parties and militias. Those guilty of war crimes against Donbass will be tried and executed in Donbass, which has the death penalty (Russia does not.) Other members will be arrested and either imprisoned or deported.
3) It will identify, locate, arrest and deport to the West anyone who is a significant influencer of the hardline anti-russian and neo-Nazi movement.
4) It will identify, locate, arrest and either imprison or deport any corrupt oligarchs who might be involved with hardline nationalist parties or private militias or critical infrastructure.
5) Once the new government is in place, Russia will organize Ukraine's police services with FSB assistance to set up a counter-intelligence operation to prevent any hardline nationalist or neo-Nazi underground movement from starting.
5) It will demilitarize the Ukrainian army until such time as its reconstruction can be designed. This means Russians control all Ukrainian military assets until the new force is organized. The reorganization will be based on removing all NATO influence and systems and replacing them with whatever is necessary to enable Ukraine to participate in the CSTO.

It will then:
1) organize a new caretaker government with a new Constitution which

a) bans NATO;
b) bans neo-Nazi parties and militias;
c) recognizes the Donbass republics as either independent or autonomous within a newly designed national architecture;
d) reorganizes the Ukrainian military architecture.

2) hold new elections;
3) negotiate a treaty with Russia permitting Russia to install strategic weapons in Ukraine;
4) negotiate the membership of Ukraine in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

The reason why Russia has to take all of Ukraine is to eliminate - or at least reduce - the number one problem in internal Ukraine politics: hardline anti-Russian nationalists and neo-Nazis. Pushing them off to a separate state or allowing their territory to be absorbed by Poland and the other neighboring states is not a solution to that problem. It deprives Ukraine of almost half its territory and allows those territories to be subsumed by the West and used as weapons against the remainder of Ukraine.

Partitioning a state causes all sorts of problems. This is how Ukraine was created in the first place - people meddling with the borders of territories. Russia wants a unified, compliant partner, much like Canada is for the US or Belarus is for Russia.

With the neo-Nazis banned from political action, infiltrated by counterintelligence operations, unable to enter Ukraine from the West, and most of its influencers removed from the country, it will be next to impossible for them to influence, let alone gain control of, the new government.

Once these tasks are done and the new Ukrainian military and police services are reorganized and reoriented, Russia can leave the country. Most Russian forces will have left already except for those forces controlling Ukrainian military assets until those services are reorganized.

It's difficult to estimate how long the above will take to accomplish. I expect it will all be done by end of the year, if not before.

Subsequently, Russia will negotiate an economic and trade plan probably similar to what it offered Victor Yanukovich. Russia will offer some economic assistance but not engage in "nation-building" in the sense the US does.

This is the only plan that comes close to solving Russia's problems with Ukraine, as well as addressing its issues with US strategic weapons in neighboring Poland and Romania. We have to remember that those weapons are the primary reason for the Russian invasion. The invasion was step one in the "military-technical measures" Russia talked about last year. Dealing with Ukraine in the manner I outline is the only way for Russia to really solve the Ukraine problem.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 18:55 utc | 45

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 19 2022 17:02 utc | 4

Russia doesn't need Hezbollah. They have the Chechens.

However, it's possible some Hezbollah fighters went to join in. As you no doubt know, Shoigu informed Putin that there are many volunteers from other countries who wanted to fight on Donbass's side. Putin said any and all assistance should be rendered to them, primarily to allow them to serve with the Donbass militias, as long as the volunteers are not mercenaries looking to be paid. And of course, no such will be incorporated in the Russian military operations, only in the Donbass militias for unit integrity reasons.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 18:59 utc | 46

The two choices, long proffered by Russia, remain: if the US and its Galician puppets will agree to a proper Federal system with local autonomy and the sort of cultural safeguards that Quebec has in Canada then there is no reason why Ukraine should not be restored on the basis that it hosts no foreign bases and joins no Atlantic alliances. In other words if Ukraine wants sovereignty and can convince its regions that it is sincere, there need to be few if any border adjustments.

On the other hand, if Ukraine's government wishes to continue to act as a base for the encirclement and dismantling of, what the idiot currently running Canada's "Global Affairs" ministry calls, the Russian Empire, but the rest of us understand is Russia sans empire, (all the while looting the plain people of Ukraine now reduced to deep poverty) then the country will have to be broken up.

Russia is forced to choose here between being dismantled itself or dismantling its mad dog neighbours. And, of course, there are several others, notably the Baltic states who seem to be intent on following Ukraine into History's Garbage Can.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 19 2022 19:01 utc | 47

Please, look for the result of the referendum which was held in Ukraine on 17 March 1991.

Thank you.

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 19 2022 19:02 utc | 48

"Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 18:55 utc | 45"

It is necessary to get rid of Galicia which was never Russian.

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 19 2022 19:03 utc | 49

There are no "citizens of the EU"

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2022 18:42 utc | 39


I'd say there are no citizens, only hostages and sheeple. But then, I feel that way about the peoples of most political entities.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 19 2022 19:06 utc | 50

The clown NATO Secretary-General Jen Stoltenberg chose this day, the 19th Anniversary of the US attack on Iraq to demand China to uphold international law in the Security Council:

“China should join the rest of the world condemning strongly the brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russia. So China has an obligation as a member of the U.N. Security Council to actually support and uphold international law. And the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law so we call on [China] to clearly condemn the invasion and of course not support Russia. And we are closely monitoring any signs of support from China to Russia.”
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/19/us-recklessly-eyes-china-as-target-in-economic-war/

Posted by: bevin | Mar 19 2022 19:10 utc | 51

My how b has fallen into incoherence with this report. Ian Fleming himself couldnt develop a more convoluted plotline than our our gracious host concocts here. He has reason to believe the letter is real....based on what exactly? The link to CNN only provides solid evidence the Axios story is indeed a piece of bungled disinformation which Axios disingenuously acknowledged in an update without providing a full retraction.

The only takeaway from the Axios story and b's report that I can gather (using b's "logic") is Russia and her social media poodles have lost big time in Ukraine from a geopolitical standpoint and even militarily, in the sense that the bungling Russian Army and the poodles have been thoroughly exposed as a third rate hot mess.

NATO has resurrected itself with newfound confidence and purpose (without taking any risk beyond the threat of nuclear annihilation by Putin the Great) in reaction to this bungled invasion. No one is afraid of Russia any longer or the short balding Machiavelli behind the curtain....er I mean at the far end of the 20 foot long table.

Bravo b and the cringeworthy commentariat!

First, there was Putin putting the lie to your false concept of his supposed anti-zionism. Then, Putin not only didn't stop Erdogan in Idleb (or Libya) as confidently predicted, he even sold Turkey advanced Russian military equipment.

What next? When will we hear b's praise-filled testimony (based entirely on his fact free instincts or something) about how the "Clown Prince" has now joined the Russian/Chinese crusade to bring down the Outlaw Evil Empire for the enduring salvation of mankind?

If nothing else, and so far there has been nothing else, MoA over the prior few years has highlighted the utter capitulation to reactionary fascism by the so-called left.

Although from reading the comments one can be assured there are no leftists left.

Posted by: Useless meat beater | Mar 19 2022 19:11 utc | 52

What is described in b's article above is a very reasonable fit, for the demographics and political sentiment in Donetsk and Luhansk. Gradually less and less so, going westward. I personally think what is drawn would not be a realistic outcome, i.e. it could not be achieved without unacceptable levels of violence. A 20% minority, plus an external sponsor with deep pockets, is enough to support a campaign of violence and terror. This would cause the local authorities to adopt harsh tactics to protect everyone else, and make awful for years. People trapped in the middle already understood this ever since 2015- and supported preservation of the status quo, precisely because the destruction caused by the process is not worth it.

Hoping RF gets done with destroying the extremist units holding citizens hostage, gets done destroying heavy weapons deployed by UA used to attack L/DNR, gets done destroying all ballistic missiles and similar things, and then gets out. Possible exception if there is honest overwhelming (80%+) support for them to stay, maybe like Kharkov or parts of it - but even that remains to be seen, and would be hard to prove because much of the population has fled, and much more will flee as soon as the hostage taking stops.

Unfortunately, real Denazification - down to the root - is simply not possible without total control of all territory and without brutal Stalinist methods. The costs of doing that I do not wish on anyone to have to bear. I have total contempt and disgust for the people in the State Dept who spent the last 10 years empowering the extremists and deliberately creating this situation, but just as in all the other countries they similarly wrecked in the name of hegemony, they left little chance to fix what they have done.

Posted by: ptb | Mar 19 2022 19:11 utc | 53

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 19 2022 19:03 utc | 49

I concede that it might be possible. I don't think it's a good idea. What needs to be removed are the troublemakers not the territory itself. Why give up territory if you don't have to, especially if it allows a neighboring NATO country like Poland to use it against you? Ukraine may have been a patch-work country in the past, but it has borders now that should be maintained. If, under the new government, they want a referendum to secede, like Donbass did, maybe that could be granted. But then the border of the remaining Ukraine should be sealed against them and the necessary counterintelligence operations done to insure they have no influence inside Ukraine. Since as a separate state they will have no political party influence inside Ukraine, that might satisfy Russia.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:12 utc | 54

@Antonym #7
Incorrect.
Russia has deployed the minimum force necessary to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 19 2022 19:12 utc | 55

Probably no mass insurgency but I can imagine acts of sabotage and a few assassinations, organized from Poland probably. Any government friendly to Russia will be branded as Quislings (by the West). It will fizzle out. The Russians know who to arrest.

Posted by: dh | Mar 19 2022 19:16 utc | 56

Posted by: ptb | Mar 19 2022 19:11 utc | 53
"Unfortunately, real Denazification - down to the root - is simply not possible without total control of all territory and without brutal Stalinist methods."

Depends on what one calls "brutal Stalinist methods." The program I outline above is straightforward and not necessarily violent except in the cases of the neo-Nazi militias. Arrest, imprisonment or deportation is preferable to a bullet in the head, which is what I would view as "Stalinist methods".

One could argue that deporting me with undesirable political opinions is not "democratic". I would counter-argue:
1) that hardline anti-Russia nationalists - let alone neo-Nazis - aren't participants in a "democratic process" but rather racist terrorists;
2) regardless of whether the process is "democratic", it has to be done from Russia's viewpoint to solve the problem;
3) this is not the US.

Finally, note that my recommendations do not include spending a lot of time trying to dig out everyone who dislikes Russians or likes Hitler. This only has to be done deep enough to remove those who have the resources and motivation to be a threat to the new Ukrainian government in the manner of the 2014 Maidan coup. A bunch of disgruntled Galician citizens are not a threat. Militias, oligarchs and political parties are threats. Deal with them and the rest of the problem is manageable.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:21 utc | 57

"Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:12 utc | 54"

I mean that if other parts of Ukraine want to be independant like Donetsk and Lugansk, and conclude a treaty with Russia like the one for Donetsk and Lugansk, why not. The Azov sea must become now a Russian sea, by resurrecting the Taurid province. Idem the Black Sea coast to Odessa and Transnistria. Same with Snake Island. But that is all for the future. We can dream all we want. The reality now is that there is a denazification and demilitarization to enforce.

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 19 2022 19:22 utc | 58

"deporting me" s/b "deporting people"...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:22 utc | 59

If nothing else, and so far there has been nothing else, MoA over the prior few years has highlighted the utter capitulation to reactionary fascism by the so-called left.

Although from reading the comments one can be assured there are no leftists left.

Posted by: Useless meat beater | Mar 19 2022 19:11 utc | 52

You need to bone up on structural politics.

National Socialism IS 'Left' because nationalism is less authoritarian (smaller scale) than internationalism, and socialism is 'Left' of capitalism.

I won't argue with you on your point about being reactionary. That's politics for you, right? I'm sure you are, too.

Posted by: reante | Mar 19 2022 19:28 utc | 60

The West cannot afford to lose this war, regardless of what Zelensky wants, it will continue, until Nato and the EU breaks Russia or Russia breaks them, this is the Wests big chance to try and break Putin's dominance, and I suppose its the goal of Nato and the EU as in other countries that they've overpowered, to asset strip Russia, controlled it, maybe keep it a war torn state as in Libya, and if needs be such as in Sudan's case break it up which will surely happen to Russia if the West wins via Ukraine.

Relations between the EU and Nato the West, especially those countries that have acted in supplying weapons to Ukraine or implementing sanctions, are very unlikely to return to the state they were in before this conflict, mind you Russia has been under sanctions in one form or another by the West for years now.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 19 2022 19:28 utc | 61

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 19 2022 19:22 utc | 58

As I said, if an area wants a referendum to secede or become autonomous, that will be handled by mechanisms in the new Constitution.

Personally I think Donbass should rejoin Ukraine as an autonomous region rather than an independent state. Putin recognized that back in 2014 when he asked them not to hold a referendum then.

But just kicking Galicia into the arms of the Poles and NATO and the CIA is not a good idea. Galicia should either remain part of Ukraine with an autonomous status - but still subject to Ukrainian laws against neo-Nazism - or if it secedes it needs to have a treaty with the remaining Ukraine that prohibits any subversive activities against Ukraine by the hardline anti-Russians or neo-Nazis.

In other words, if Galicia can't behave in a civilized manner, why should Ukraine grant it any special status?

The easiest solution is simply to get rid of the troublemakers who have the ability to influence the rest of Ukraine. Kick them out of Ukraine to the West, since the West seems to love neo-Nazis so much.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:29 utc | 62

Colorizing maps based on such times when Empress Katherine, or Lenin or Krutshev or even Stalin brought about some piece of land from one subdivision of Russian Empire to another is of little meaning and a distraction.
Dealing now is about today's People and political (military) actuality.
One need to substract Crimean people who are now part of Russia proper and LDNR who are Independent and recognized as such by Russian Federation Government.
Ninety percent of Ukraine's people speak Russian while about 40-45% are of Russian mother tongue and speak Russian at home.
This reality could grossly match the outline of political Ukraine (in terms of being pro-Russia or anti-Russia). It is to be expected that slightly more of 50% of Ukraine's people would be rather pro-Russia based on the rather dismal economic and social performances of the post-Maidan Ukrainian state.
Taking advantage of this and the effect of some quick denazification de facto (war+ fleet of Nazis) and de jure (forbidding political formation of the neo-nazi and affiliated parties), it would be the time in the late Spring or early Summer to call for a general Ukrainian vote on a new constitution for the country (less Crimea and LDNR) disarmament and neutrality, under protection of CSTO forces, as well as a treaty of perpetual Friendship with Russia based on free-trade and cultural relationship.
The constitution, could be one of a loose confederation of Ukrainian autonomous Republics following current oblasts administrative delimitations with large decentralized powers on economics, social and cultural management. Ukrainian autonomous would be gifted with some local parliament
This would include abolition of linguistic discriminatory linguistic laws passed by post-Maidan Ukraine, guaranteeing equal status to all languages of the country. Some national guard and Police will inherit the task of maintaining order and peace inside the country - with possible help of CSTO forces permanently stationed within its border... Heavy weaponry would be excluded, as well as AirForce, Navy and of course WMDs. Protection towards the rest of the World to be guaranteed by CSTO forces.
Autonomous Ukrainian republics could be later allowed to self determine into joining the Union State of Russia, Belarus and other ex-Soviet republics as Kazakhstan.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 19 2022 19:31 utc | 63

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 19 2022 19:28 utc | 61

I agree. This is Cold War 2.0 and it's going to continue until one side or the other collapses under the strain. My bet is that the West collapses first, simply because China has Russia's back as does a number of other high population countries. It's too soon to predict the outcome with certainty, but my money is on the West collapsing first.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:32 utc | 64

The infestation of Nazism across the globe from Canada to Ukraine is bigger than I thought, I expect Europe to suffer more from Nazism/fascism in the future with all the Ukrainians moving into it.


"Hundreds of people marched in the Latvian capital Riga on Wednesday to honor their compatriots who fought alongside the Nazis during World War II.

Around 200 demonstrators carried the national flags of Latvia and Ukraine, as well as flowers that were laid at the foot of the Freedom Monument in the city center."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 19 2022 19:33 utc | 65

@John Gilberts | 29

Our Goal is to Suffocate the Russian Regime

The current Liberal administration in Ottawa has shown it's true colors at last. They are a puppet regime controlled by "the hidden hand". Is it Israel, Washington or both that is running Canada? I recall the first thing Trudeau did after being elected PM of Canada the first time was to go to see his masters at Davos; I now assume it was to get advice in the same way as Zelenskyy is calling his own masters for advice.

Ottawa's is currently a minority government in a country that has enacted laws that are slowly eroding free speech. How can that government declare Russia a hostile country and undermine her without at least a plebiscite? Is it another authoritarian measure in the steps of the already poor handling of the trucker demonstrations earlier this year?

Posted by: Richard L | Mar 19 2022 19:33 utc | 66

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 19 2022 19:31 utc | 63

Agreed. This is pretty much the plan I outlined above. It's the only logical approach that doesn't leave problems behind to fester. That's why I think Russia will do it. Russia is tired of having to "deal with" Ukraine every year.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 19:35 utc | 67


Anybody knows where to find these interviews?

Posted by: ABCDEFGH | Mar 19 2022 17:06 utc | 5


Write from Odessa:
"Today I came with my son to the Central Scientific and Practical Center on Kosovskaya Street in Odessa to get a passport at 13:15, but I was just in shock ...,
they sounded the alarm and all the visitors were driven out of the building to the street by guards with machine guns, saying that an air raid had begun, the employees had gone to the bomb shelter, and the visitors, in their opinion, should stay on the street and apparently wait for the arrival of shells, and all visitors, including those with small children , pensioners risking their lives stood in an open space near a multi-storey building, which at any time in the event of a bomb


"Azov, bitch! People were leaving - "Azov" shot, pi * aces, sa! He shot columns of civilians who tried to go to Volodarsk - they shot buses!"


Civilians who escaped from Mariupol talk about the horrors they had to endure during the city battles.

According to them, there are many dead civilians in the city, who have no one to bury. Radicals from the Ukrainian "Azov Regiment" repeatedly disrupted the evacuation of civilians, shooting those who tried to leave the city

SOURCE:
All of the above from today, March 19.

I would provide the source links but I have no way of determining if your request was made with the intent to locate, shut down, terminate, or cancel, alternative news sources.

When dealing with NAZIs there is no certainty, no truth, and no honour.

If you were truly interested in the reality of present day Ukraine you would have no difficulty locating the desired information yourself.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 19 2022 19:43 utc | 68

@Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 18:55 utc | 45

The problem is with so many lives lost, its difficult to 'take' Ukraine and not have anti-Russian sentiments bubbling underneath. Those that died are someone's son, brother and father. A lot of them might even be conscripts who didn't have a choice, families have long memories, they care about who killed them, not the why.

Also if Russia moves in and installs strategic weapons then the whole notion of a buffer state is lost, and Russia has de facto expanded. It will no longer have a buffer state between itself and the west.

Although i agree russia might go all the way to Poland just to wave hello to NATO and take some selfies i really don't believe it'll take non Russian majority provinces in the settlement. It'll bite off more than it can chew. Everything useful in Ukraine are in the east and they speak Russian.

Even if the nationalists and nazis denounce fascism do you think they'll keep their words? A year? Two? May be 5? Some just will not reform, others will blend into the population and bide their time. There's just no upside to russia.

It has surrounded but refrained from smashing civilian infrastructure without good reasons, in kiev for example. I think Russia might just say to europe, here, you love Ukraine so much you can have what's left, have fun with the nazis, javelins and singers that are sure to go global. Let's see that solidarity you talk about so much. Ciao.

Without the east and with its over entitled urban population western Ukraine is just a gigantic scam call centre masquerading as a country.

Posted by: A.L. | Mar 19 2022 19:43 utc | 69

Richard (64).

There's a couple of ways out this the West exhausts its supplies to Ukraine and the US orders Zelensky or whomever is president at the time to make a deal with Russia. By exhaust I mean the public gets fed up with the costs and kick up a stink along with threatening the incumbent party at the polls to eject them in the EU and the US.

Or Russia takes the whole of Ukraine and occupies it, this way no weapons can be funneled as they'll be no Nazis to funnel them to, and I doubt Poland would want to launch a major offensive, at this point the West can admit defeat or Nato can strike occupying Russian forces in Ukraine, which could lead to a huge escalation in hostilities.

How long Russian forces would occupy Ukraine is for the future, but the minute Russian forces pulled back the Nazis and their mad dog foreign mercenaries would flood back into Western Ukraine and begin shelling Eastern and Central Ukraine and we'd be back to square one. They would of course be funded by the West as they are doing now.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 19 2022 19:44 utc | 70

As I explained to Tom Herrera in the previous Open (Ukraine) thread, denazifying Ukraine has to extend beyond demilitarising the country: denazification would require revising Ukraine's education system and culture from its universities and colleges down to and even including its kindergartens and childcare centres to. Reforming and changing educational textbooks on Ukrainian history that equate Ukrainians with a mythical purebred Aryan people is a must. Academics, educators and other cultural public figures like the linguist and former politician Irina Farion who advocate Ukrainian racial purity and supremacy must not be given space where they can influence young people.

Denazification is not just purely a military project: the war waged by Ukraine on its Russian-language population and other ethnic minorities since February 2014 has been psychological and linguistic as well.

Posted by: Jen | Mar 19 2022 19:48 utc | 71

How to keep the raptors off the fences? Russia will always be involved in the punishment of the west and their minions. I don't see any other way this works unless Russia hits the west with reciprocal actions and punishments. Still think the missile bases in Poland and Romania need to be dealt with sooner than later.

Posted by: so | Mar 19 2022 19:48 utc | 72

Gonzalo Lira today on how things might develop
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJn1P6WKCgw

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2022 19:49 utc | 73

Given the nature and quality of Western media reporting, and the response of "law abiding," "democratic," "responsible governments," my concern would be an outcome under which the entirety of the west becomes an informal appendege to Galacia.

Bring back the goose step. The west has already re-incarnated Goebbels. Jackboots and brown shirts are sure to be the next de rigueur fashion accessories.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 19 2022 20:01 utc | 74

Ukraine is only a battle in a larger war. One part of which is Russia vs NATO (or USNATO). (other parts; sanctions, and monetary value or lack of thereof.)

So to "finalize" a border between Russian interests and NATO, the West of Ukraine should not be allowed to militarize more than it is already. So we have Mr. Kinzal, the missiles on the mercenary staging base, a barracks and we will certainly see more attacks on incoming military supplies (Lvrov has said so).

Plus a generalised increase in larger missiles. (I gather reinforcements of this type are being supplied) Larger missiles with longer ranges. Taking out high value military targets, such as barracks and ammunition dumps.
**

So, the present "system" of forming cauldrons will probably be continued. Which is where we get to the idea of "boundaries". The thrust northwards fom Kherson, combined with a southern movement from near Kiev (but not FROM Kiev) creates a central "canton/oblast" holding much of Ukraines forces. Good agicultural land too. Which can be progesssively used to reduce the Ukes to harbouring more peaceful thoughts.

Kiev and Odessa may or may not be taken, but cutting Odesssa off from "West" Ukraine is easier than directly attacking it. Cut off from supplies by sea or land, it may still have a large Russian-tolerating population in spite of the suppression by Azovist commissars. Kiev can wait as well. Are you sure that a lot of the convoy that was stalled for so long is not made up of decoys? The Russians have been developing these for some time. Ties up forces to protect it, reduces their use elsewhere, and scares zelensky off.
**

So by controlling all points east of a line from the "top" of Transnistria to somewhere just south of Kiev, most of the physical assets of Ukraine are under control.

At that point I should expect the Russians to make a final decision whether or not to "take" the rest of Ukraine. That depends partially on how well US and EU arms shipments have been stopped or reduced in the meanwhile.
**

The political solution would call for "Oblasts" being redefined as federated parts of Ukraine - each with it's own largly self-chosen representatives and independent Bureaucracy/Legislature. Only "largely" as Azovs would presumably be eliminated, and a stong Judiciary, one capable of fighting corruption, would have to be created for each canton.

****
PS. They could then offer all US and other mercenaries a generous but final "go-home" payoff, in US dollars, to be deducted from the Russian reserves that have been stolen by the US.

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 19 2022 20:08 utc | 75

Posted by: A.L. | Mar 19 2022 19:43 utc | 69
"The problem is with so many lives lost, its difficult to 'take' Ukraine and not have anti-Russian sentiments bubbling underneath."

It already bubbles underneath. If Russia fixes the government and then improves the economy by getting rid of the oligarchs and making deals with the new government, that will go far to reducing the anti-Russian sentiment. Over time, people will get on with their lives especially if there no longer is a civil war going on in the east.

"Also if Russia moves in and installs strategic weapons then the whole notion of a buffer state is lost, and Russia has de facto expanded. It will no longer have a buffer state between itself and the west."

No, what it will have is a strategic compliant partner between it and the West. It will have strategic weapons poised on the West's border just as NATO was trying to do with Ukraine. This is the definition of a buffer state - not one which is trying to get into NATO and install NATO bases on Russia's border. Ukraine is still separate from Russia just like Belarus is.

"It'll bite off more than it can chew."

Says who? I think you underestimate what Russia can "chew". Besides, as I said, Russia is not "chewing" anything. It will have a compliant government in Kiev to do the "chewing" for it, backed by Russian intelligence and of course the threat of the Russian military. As Martyanov says, Ukrainian police services will do the "chewing."

"Even if the nationalists and nazis denounce fascism do you think they'll keep their words?"

No. That's why I say deport them, don't give them a territory of their own. But if that is done, then Russia needs legally binding guarantees that they stay out of Ukraine.

"It has surrounded but refrained from smashing civilian infrastructure without good reasons, in kiev for example."

You don't understand Russia's view of Ukraine. Even though as Martyanov says, many Ukrainians, even in eastern Ukraine, hate Russians, Russians do not hate Ukrainians. They are not going to kill masses of civilians. As one Russian general said, "We are not Americans!"


Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 19 2022 19:44 utc | 70
"the West exhausts its supplies to Ukraine and the US orders Zelensky or whomever is president at the time to make a deal with Russia."

Won't happen. The neocons have too much influence and they couldn't care less what the US public thinks. Plus the US public has zero control of the government's actions, even at election time.

"Or Russia takes the whole of Ukraine and occupies it, this way no weapons can be funneled as they'll be no Nazis to funnel them to, and I doubt Poland would want to launch a major offensive, at this point the West can admit defeat or Nato can strike occupying Russian forces in Ukraine, which could lead to a huge escalation in hostilities."

Correct. Also why it's not going to happen - at least, as long as cooler heads in the Pentagon prevail over the neocons. That's my only worry.

"the minute Russian forces pulled back the Nazis and their mad dog foreign mercenaries would flood back into Western Ukraine"

Not under my plan. The borders can be controlled, counterintelligence can detect any underground movement, and the parties and militias are banned. Also, keep in mind that no matter WHAT Russia does, that scenario you described would be possible - even if Russia pulled out completely. Only if Russia reorganizes the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian military and sets it to counter such moves will Ukraine remain free of malign political influence. In fact, it doesn't matter if it remains "free" of it, just so long as it can't gain enough traction to influence, let alone control, the new government.

In other words, a new Maidan will not be allowed, no matter what Russia has to do to achieve that.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 20:17 utc | 76

Posted by: Jen | Mar 19 2022 19:48 utc | 71

That's for the new Ukrainian government to deal with, with Russian help.

Again, it doesn't matter if a significant percentage of the Ukrainian population doesn't like Russia. What matters is how much influence over the new government they retain and whether another Maidan movement can be prevented.

If it can't, then Russia will rinse and repeat. What Russia will not allow is a Nazified Ukraine, regardless of what the population thinks they want.

Most likely, however, with a renewed economy and no direct influence from the hardline nationalists and neo-Nazis on the ground, the population is more likely to return to its personal goals than engage in some new "revolution against Russia."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 20:20 utc | 77

Sushi 74

The manufactured Western 'nature' isn't 'nazi.'

It's semitic. Culturally semitic. Remember?

Characterized by trickery and malice.

Designed to confuse.

It has you thinking that it is currently 'nazi' (national socialist) when it is actually the opposite in semitic
(international capitalist). So that when it restructures into national socialism ('nazi') you will think it a righteous development, and the culturally semitic will see it as 'nazi,' and the tables will be turned. We can see that both sides are already calling each other 'nazis.' That's because both sides will be living under national socialism. That's the political churning of the Fourth Turning.

Thanks for your great post on fracking from some days ago.

Posted by: reante | Mar 19 2022 20:22 utc | 78

Posted by: so | Mar 19 2022 19:48 utc | 72
"Still think the missile bases in Poland and Romania need to be dealt with sooner than later."

That's what putting strategic missiles into Ukraine is for in my plan. It counters those missiles and reestablishes MAD. That's all Putin wants, assuming he can't get NATO to stand down. He's said that all along: "Talk with Mr. Lavrov or talk to Mr. Shoigu." That doesn't require attacking those missiles - just countering them with the equivalent threat to NATO and the US. Missiles in Ukraine threatens NATO. The next step after that will be missiles threatening the US mainland.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 20:24 utc | 79

I don't know if that has been posted before (my apologies, I did not see it in a search), but one reason the West is "winning" the propaganda war is that the Russians are not fighting on that same field. It appears that Russia's intended audience is its BRICS partners, Africa and Asia.

https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800

Miller's tweets have the scent of Russophobic alarmism, but it looks like Russia is playing on social media and other communications outlets to an audience that is pre-disposed to mistrust the West - and often for very good reasons. And this is an audience of several /billion/ people that the West seems to be ignoring.

One respondent to the thread asked, "Can you disable the misinformation network that Carl is describing?" My answer would be "Given all we've seen, what reasons would the non-West have to believe America anyway?"

Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Mar 19 2022 20:27 utc | 80

(In Gemran) Francis Fukuyama, famous "End of history"-Bullshitter: Russland will be defeated, Putin will nit survive. - and 10 more BS-hypotheses
https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/francis-fukuyama-russland-wird-diesen-krieg-verlieren-und-weitere-12-prognosen-ld.1674933?

Posted by: Mathias | Mar 19 2022 20:27 utc | 81

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 19 2022 20:20 utc | 78
I agree.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 19 2022 20:29 utc | 82

Sushi | Mar 19 2022 20:01 utc | 74

"Bring back the goose step. The west has already re-incarnated Goebbels. Jackboots and brown shirts are sure to be the next de rigueur fashion accessories."

So passé.
Bring back the high-heels shuffle, Reincarnate Goebbels (who according to the song; "Goebbles, had no balls, at all" so he was ahead of his time) and we need clinging green Tee shirts over a lackadaisical stomach, as seen "a la zeleVision".

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 19 2022 20:32 utc | 83

New Ukraine map out of French MOD
https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

Posted by: Andreas | Mar 19 2022 20:39 utc | 84

One thing bothers me a bit about all the commenting; it is like the Russians or anyone else have the right to decide what will happen to Ukraine when this is all over. It is for the various people in that land to sort out for themselves. If the Russians are really wise, they will just remove the guns from people's heads and let then them decide for themselves.

Posted by: tim rourke | Mar 19 2022 20:02 utc | 75

Um, earth to Tim: civilization doesn't work like that. Civilization and wisdom are mutually exclusive.

With one exception: when the civilizational elite try to save themselves from inevitable civilizational collapse. Then they put on their thinking caps and make a plan.

The elites would be unwise to "let them decide for themselves" because the Ukraine is not capable of dealing with the now-privatized Soviet nuclear power industry within their borders. The Ukraine is corrupt, nearly bankrupt, and their nuclear power industry is in the red. That's a recipe for disaster.

It has been noted that the smoke from the, uh, odd, shall we say, incident at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant is blowing over two major Russian cities. Nudge nudge wink wink.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/4/7328051/

Posted by: reante | Mar 19 2022 20:43 utc | 85

Losing and desperate. Diplomats at risk.

Russian MoD: Surrendered SBU Officer Exposes Plans of Azov Militants to Attack Foreign Diplomatic Missions in Lvov

https://sputniknews.com/20220319/live-updates-kiev-admits-ukraine-lost-access-to-sea-of-azov-1094001490.html (
Updates Page. Scroll down)

Ukrainian militants from the Azov Battalion are planning a terrorist attack in Lviv against Western diplomats to set up a provocation against the Russian armed forces in order to increase the pressure on NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine and supply weapons, Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday.

The information was provided by an officer of the main department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, who had voluntarily surrendered to the Russian military on Saturday, according to Konashenkov.

"An SBU officer reported about terrorist acts planned by militants of the Azov nationalist battalion in Lvov against employees and facilities of the diplomatic missions of the United States and other Western countries," Konashenkov said.[.]

= = = =
going w right tool for the job
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Mar 19 2022 17:48 utc | 19

Soon to be joined by Mr. Kalibr from the Caspian sea. . No passport required.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 19 2022 20:49 utc | 86

The West is absolutely desperate to take down Russia.

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 19 2022 18:55 utc | 44

Agreed.

But all of the sanctions levied to date are the equivalent of an economic Hiroshima exploded within the interdependent global skein of commercial relationships.

I think the question to be asked is which side collapses first. The resourceful and autarkic Russkies with their stoic acceptance of existential hardship?

Or the pampered woke west, a populace incapable of any critical thought beyond mob rule and loathe to give up the comfort of the rolling living rooms they call "automobiles" and talking head television "reality."

If the NATO states do decide to act it will likely be done to preserve RF LGBT rights and transsexual bathroom facilities.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 19 2022 20:54 utc | 87

Jen @71--

Excellent points! Denazification is a socio-cultural/economic project with a policing component. It's rather clear from the commentary that too many are unfamiliar with Ukraine's history and the history of CIA intervention, destabilization and nazification, which is why in my first comment @34 I relinked to Wayne Madsen's 2016 article that deals with the CIA aspect. Also, few mention the extremely important economic aspect that provides the proper support for a healthy polity that is immunized against using nationalism--or worse, joining NATO/EU as espoused at Maidan--as the way to a better life, which is very much at the root of Ukraine's post-independence problems as many recent essays and Putin speeches have revealed. Long ago during the Tsar's reign it was recognized that having an economically healthy borderland was a prerequisite to having a peaceful borderland, and that theorem remains valid. As I've written consistently, restoring Ukraine's economic viability will be part of the cost Russia pays for ensuring its security. And economically Russia is strong enough to make that a reality.

Incorporating Ukraine as a Union State will also help the project, but also complicates it since Russia insists that no NATO nation abut its borders, and IMO that would include those of the Union nations too. IMO, as I see it from Russia's POV and as Russia's leaders have expressed the issue dozens of times, NATO will need to be rolled back to its 1997 status if not completely dissolved while a not altogether new security arrangement is negotiated--there was nothing wrong with the various OSCE security treaties aside from the fact that NATO forced its signatory nations to violate all of them, which is proven by Russia's continuing commitment to the concept of indivisible security they incorporated. In reality, only two entities oppose that concept--the Outlaw US Empire and its ally the Outlaw Anglo Empire. I'm sure they'll be fine with becoming Oceania along with Canada.

The biggest issue I see in the future for Russia is overcoming one of the main components of Russpophobia--that Russia's leaders want to reestablish the USSR/Tsarist Russian Empire. Up top, b provided the best line Putin's uttered about his feelings on that, and I'd say that also speaks for most Russians. As I've said over and again, despite many of its assets, Russia remains a developing nation, which is the main priority after Russia's security. The EAEU/BRI project is aimed at demonstrating that fact to a blinkered Europe, the rest of the world needs no convincing. Putin's signed onto Xi's project--a shared and prosperous future for humanity--and has put it into his own words on several occasions. That joint project is a Peace Project disguised as an economic/commercial project, which is how most of the planet sees it, but not the heavily propagandized 1/8th of the planet comprising NATO and AUKUS plus Japan. Essentially, the English speaking nations need to retire to their own sandboxes and allow the rest of the world to get on with the serious business of uplifting their people out of poverty into a sustainable prosperity focusing on expanding the collective wisdom of individuals while keeping corruption to a minimum.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 19 2022 20:59 utc | 88

at the rate the US is going, Russia will need to de-Nazify the USG.

"At least Hitler didn't..." do x, y or z is already being regularly stated. if our leaders talk this way publicly, what should we expect they are doing behind the scenes?

whose "spirits" are being invoked by how the West memorializes the past, who is being raised from death's oblivion? Collaborators, if not outright Nazis themselves. these are the "heroic dead" being revived in Western political discourse.

and it's everywhere in the West. everywhere. Leon Panetta's cri de guerre to kill millions cuz that's the only thing Russia respects has now been normalized. (but the US says this about each and all of its enemies, incl black people: they only respect violence.)

the West is fighting the shadow of its own inevitable death, into which darkness it projects all kinds of horrible shit, the horror of its own guilt, methods, beliefs and murders. the West is fighting its own self-negation, as they publicly state routinely, namely "socialism" or "communism".

If we listen to Western leaders, we see a very real danger of suicide, nuclear war, as their fantasy of their power collapses before reality.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Mar 19 2022 21:01 utc | 89

B> Russian troops can then go back to Russia.

Chances are, Ukraine would start shelling those lands as it did with Donetsk.

New West-only Ukraine would be both more rabid and more dependent on USA goodwill, so it will do anything USA commands. So they will bang their heads againsy whatever pro-Russia population they might reach.

BTW Russia had a similar situation in 18th century, going further and further south. Nomads were pillaging and destroying our borderland settlements. Those were pleaing to tzar for protection, eeventually tzar could no more refuse and sent army. Army dispersed nomads, took large swath of "buffer territorries" and forces nomads to cease their lifestyle. Few decades later those ex-nomads became fixed settlements, became attacked by nomads further south, and started pleaing to tzar "you prohibited us to protect ourselves as our ancesters did, then come and protect us before our youth would turn old ways". The cycle repeated itself.

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 19 2022 21:01 utc | 90

Posted by: tim rourke | Mar 19 2022
Just my thoughts.
In theory,a good plan.
In reality stupid.
Outside actors acting for the best interests of Ukraine,have an ulterior motive.
He who pocesses the land can determine its future direction.
As the US of A always does.
Russia will look after its Russian relations in its own good time and interests.
I am sure the Chinese are waiting patiently to help.
Any interlopers,heed the Kinzhal warnings.

Posted by: Kim | Mar 19 2022 21:08 utc | 91

Posted by: tim rourke | Mar 19 2022 20:02 utc | 75

That sounds noble but actually it is stimulating ethnocide.

For example take Austro-Hungary eastern regions in 1914. They eradicated everyone who identified Russian or Orthodox. The concentration camps there were death machines no any less than Hitlers.

Today those lands are westmost Ukraine and they reproduce the most vile rusophobes. Why? Because everyone else was totally eradicated.

Today... Well, for 8 years Ukraine was supressing, killing or making flee anyone lacking rusophobic settlement. At the same time strict censorship was induced in media and peopke had 8 years of non-stop brainwashing by best western professionals.

Now you say, let them vote.

Sounds noble, yes. What do you think though, if 9 May 1945 citizens of Third Reich were granted free vote with allies' "guns removed from their head" - home would they elected?

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 19 2022 21:09 utc | 92

OT but relevant:

"Russia could smuggle female agents into the UK among Ukrainian refugees to carry out biological or chemical terror attacks, home secretary Priti Patel has claimed."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/priti-patel-russia-ukraine-refugees-b2039561.html

Posted by: Z | Mar 19 2022 21:09 utc | 93

Oh, and BTW, https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1082642

Nothing important, just exceprts of a diary (blog) about mundane life of a Donetsk medic in last few weeks.

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 19 2022 21:10 utc | 94

Posted by: Z | Mar 19 2022 21:09 utc | 95

So, two Skripals were not enough and they would make yet more?

Is history doomed to repeat itself like farce?

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 19 2022 21:12 utc | 95

Strelkov is pissed at Ru high command's conduct of the war.
He has been since the first week.

States that the fronts are frozen and it will take mobilization to break through, which seems off the table.

24th DAY OF WAR

"Drip! Drip! Drip!" - like water from a leaky hanging washbasin, days go by drop by drop. Together with priceless time, lives and resources go nowhere. At the front, there are battles of local significance, except for the Donbass, where the command is wasting the last forces of the bleeding Donetsk and Luhansk infantry, repeatedly storming the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Avdiivka and Marinka.
And now the systematic (after several days of street fighting) withdrawal of the enemy from Rubizhne to Severodonetsk becomes the only "major victory" in two days. Even the over-optimistic propagandist Podolyak, who knows how to "suck victories out of his finger" for any reason, stopped mentioning the "imminent encirclement" of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Russian troops are firmly "stuck" EVERYWHERE.
There is no mobilization. Yesterday, the President did not even hint at its possibility. And without mobilization, victory over the so-called. "Ukraine" is impossible to win "from the word in general."
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite constant losses, will soon receive tens of thousands of mobilized people into service, and within a couple of months their number will reach 2-3 hundreds of thousands. They will be given weapons by "dear Western partners" - in any quantity, including the most modern ones. Already sent.
Not far off is the moment when the Ukrainian command, having recovered from the first shock, will throw its troops into counterattacks in the most vulnerable (for our troops) directions.
And against this background, the vile smell of the "new Minsk betrayal" is increasingly felt in the air. It is becoming clearer and clearer that the Kremlin no longer plans to fight to victory.

But there will be no "Minsk-3". A few more weeks of "standing" - and instead of a "mutually acceptable compromise" (which is hinted at by the vile Medinsky) - "respectable Ukrainian partners" will again demand unconditional surrender from the Kremlin. That is: "withdraw troops, surrender Donbass, return Crimea, and then -" pay and repent ". INEVITABLE. And then you will have to fight further. In much more difficult conditions and with a much stronger enemy.

In the meantime - "drip! drip! drip!" - the days are leaving, the opportunities associated with the most invaluable resource (after human lives) - time are leaving.

via his telegram https://t.me/strelkovii

Posted by: Cresty | Mar 19 2022 21:13 utc | 96


...
“I categorically deny such rumors. These are baseless lies and rumors. Hezbollah did not dispatch any fighter or expert to Ukraine,” the leader (Hassan Nasrallah) said.
..
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 19 2022 17:02 utc | 4
.
.

If the Secretary General says it, we should believe it.

Any Hezb'Allah "fighters and advisors experienced with urban warfare" would have their attentions focused on Lebanon, Syria and the Jew State.

However, Syria has made an offer of troops to help Russia in the Ukraine. So a Lebanese who has a Hezb'Allah background and has fought in the Syrian Arab Army could end up in the Ukraine.

Posted by: tucenz | Mar 19 2022 21:15 utc | 97

Thank you, dear host, for this most welcome sitrep and the well laid-out argument as to the future of Ukrainian statehood. Have to say I don't agree with how Russian decisions are projected here, but I can easily see the value of what you're saying.

---

Norwegian | Mar 19 2022 19:49 utc | 73
"Gonzalo Lira today on how things might develop" (youtube.com/watch?v=pJn1P6WKCgw)

Thanks for the tip, it was a joy to watch. I think his glasses suit him. It's just that he's unfortunate to need rather thick glasses, which always makes your eyes look weird (speaking from experience as a 'bat').

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Mar 19 2022 21:20 utc | 98

I find it interesting,the capture of the international Airport at Lviv.
Is this the start of full Russian capture of western Ukraine?

Posted by: Kim | Mar 19 2022 21:22 utc | 99

This is a ridiculous thread.

I get that b is one guy who is as human as the rest of us, and I could never hope to repay the value of lessons learnt here, but this is some bottom of the barrel stuff.

Misdirection is key, you all know this! And yet many seem sidetracked on ludicrous predictions about exactly the thing they are telling us to look at.

Posted by: yevgeny | Mar 19 2022 21:26 utc | 100

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