Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 29, 2022

Ukraine SitRep - Part II Of Russia's Military Operation Unfolds

This map of the situation in Ukraine on March 29 is provided by the French Ministry of Defense.


bigger

It is likely the most realistic and neutral one available. It comes with short notes about the numbered theaters.

Here are my own situation report notes:

Overview:

The Russian military operation in Ukraine began with a rather small force of some 150.000+ men against a much larger (including reservist and territorial forces) Ukrainian force of some 400.000. The Russian force used maneuver warfare to fix the larger Ukrainian forces into place. It attacked on a large front and threatened major population concentrations, i.e. cities.

The Russian operations started with the destruction of the Ukrainian command and control network. Over the last four weeks the Ukrainian navy, its airforce, its radars and air defenses and a huge number of its armored vehicles were destroyed. Throughout the last week fuel depots all over the Ukraine were attacked and destroyed over night. Ukraine's large ammunition depots are gone. Military production and repair facilities have likewise been destroyed. The Ukraine is no longer able to move large numbers of troops between the various fronts. Its army has lost its mobility.

While this was ongoing threats to Kiev, Odessa and other large Ukrainian cities have held significant numbers of Ukrainian troops in place and prevented reinforcements to move to the east. There units from the Donetsk and Luhansk republics attacked the 60,000 strong main force of the Ukrainian army to keep it in place.

This allowed Russian forces from Crimea and from the Russian border in the north to move into positions that will now enable them to envelope the east.

Details:

  1. The move east and west of Kiev was, as I have said for a while, a feint to fix mobile Ukrainian units around their capital city. The feint is no longer needed as the Ukrainian army has now lost its mobility. The Russian troops around Kiev and Chernigov will be mostly withdrawn probably up to Chernobyl where a part of them may take defensive positions while most of the units deployed around Kiev will be moved back to Belarus and Russia for new operations in eastern Ukraine.
  2. Fighting around Kharkiv is ongoing. Ukrainian counterattacks on that front have failed and the next phase of the war will see increased activities there.
  3. The move on the west side of the Dnjepr river towards the important industrial area of Kryvyi Rih and on to Dnipro has been relatively slow. The move on the eastern side of the Dnjepr towards Dnipro has been at the same speed. Note that the western and eastern parts of those fronts are at the same level. They are well coordinated. The next phase will probably see more movement on the eastern side of the river.
  4. There are still a few pockets of Azov fighters in Mariupol with the main units encircled in the vast Azovstal steelworks. They have little food and ammunition and the Chechen unites of the Russian army and national guard are working to dig them out. The Russian forces that encircled and stormed Mariupol are now freed up and will be moved to attack further north.
  5. Ukrainian forces at Mykolaiv have attempted counterattacks in the direction of Kherson. These have failed.

Prospects:

The Russian command has decided to now concentrate on enveloping and destroying Ukraine's main forces at the Donetsk front. These are the most heavy equipped and most experienced units of the Ukrainian army. Since last fall some 60,000 men had been assembled there for a full fledged war on Donetsk, an attack that the Russian operation successfully preempted.

It will probably take a few days for the Russian forces to regroup and resupply for that next phase of the war. I expect it to start around the end of this week.

The U.S. and Polish military are helping to smuggle small arms stuff through the western Ukrainian boarder. These are anti-tank missiles, old short range anti-air missiles as well as machine guns, mortars and ammunition. This is equipment for a guerilla war against an occupation force. But except for the east and maybe some parts in the south the Russian forces do not plan to occupy anything.

Those regions are steppe, very flat with little woods, where one can see an approaching enemy from miles away. It will be extremely difficult for a guerilla force to survive there. That is likely the reason why the Russian forces have done little to interrupt the arms smuggling into western Ukraine. (Those smuggled weapons will for years haunt the 'western' Europeans as they are certain to proliferate to right-wing extremist groups all over the continent.)

The general task for the whole military operation as set out by the Russian command was to de-militarize and to de-nazify the Ukraine.

The material de-militarization of the Ukraine is mostly done. During the next few weeks the Russian air and long range artillery forces will finish that task. The Ukraine would have to completely rearm, starting at about zero, should it want to regain significant military capabilities. It is hard to see how it will ever be able to finance that.

The de-militarization of the main forces of the Ukrainian army will happen in the Donbas cauldron. The units there will have to give up or they will be destroyed by the materially vastly superior Russian forces.

The de-nazification of the Ukraine has proven to be more difficult. The main fascist units of the Azov regiment were caught up in Mariupol where several thousand of them have been or will be eliminated. More fascist units at the Donetzk front will also soon be taken out. But during the eight years since the U.S. managed anti-democratic coup in Kiev the fascist ideology has deeply infiltrated all Ukrainian government structures. It will be hard for the Ukrainians to remove it even as its failures become obvious.

The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetsk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control. Next to Donetsk and Luhansk the region north of Crimea is a likely candidate. Odessa and Dnipro may also be still on the menu. The regions can be kept as statelets under local control or form a confederation that may well institutionalize a new country.

Anything beyond that depends on the willingness of the U.S. proxy government in Kiev to submit to Russia's demands. Russia can leave it at that or it can continue to mow the grass until none is left.

Posted by b on March 29, 2022 at 17:55 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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As to Russia’s war aims, the current negotiations seem to have made progress in that Ukraine is acceding to Russian demands: neutrality, demilitarization, denazification, Donbas republics independence, and agreement to Russian annexation of Crimea.

http://thesaker.is/sitrep-russia-ukraine-negotiations-further-details-revealed/

The report is from a Russian site, so who knows. The recent Russian slow down is supposedly a response to success in negotiations.

In the end, I doubt that denazification can be achieved, but reaching the other four goals will allow this war to stop, and prevent its spread to Europe and North America.

Posted by: bob sykes | Mar 29 2022 18:05 utc | 1

Air raid alarms are being sounded in almost all regions of Ukraine at this moment.

Map in link
https://t.me/intelslava/23889'

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 29 2022 18:05 utc | 2

It is weird how the western media scoffed at the idea that the forces in Kiev were a distraction even though they have sat there doing almost nothing for so long. What else could they be? They need to face reality instead of leading the Europeans to a financial collapse and Americans towards a future of less and less wealth. Their plans have backfired. Who are "they"? See War of the Worlds: The New Class

Posted by: Kana | Mar 29 2022 18:08 utc | 3

The real news has been excess mortality in younger age groups. Not in Ukraine.

Posted by: Jezabeel | Mar 29 2022 18:17 utc | 4

I think that Bernard's summary is well aligned with events and current RF plans. And I agree that the northern troops are in resupply and, possibly, retrenchment mode, but I don't think that those forces will leave their current 'lines'. The pincer around Kiev has two main purposes that still apply: 1) prevent resupply to the forces 'kettled' in the east, and 2) tempt forays from the Kiev and Dnipro garrisons. As to the second purpose, the RF forces are far enough from concentrated residential areas to reduce civilian casualties (many less human shields available), and they are well-supplied and coordinated for response. Hard to believe, but it appears that the UKR forces are taking the bait.

Posted by: Paul Spencer | Mar 29 2022 18:20 utc | 5

A unique post, a very impressive political and military prospective of the Ukraine war. A pity b is so cowardly in combating the COVID fraud.

Posted by: Mathew | Mar 29 2022 18:23 utc | 6

Great summary.

Posted by: paul | Mar 29 2022 18:27 utc | 7

Mariupol will fall any day now, Ukrainian forces will be encircled in the East any day now, Ukraine will fall in the next few days, Zelensky is outside of Ukraine.

Trust the Plan

- Z

On a serious note, it's really quite something to see Russian shills now pretending that Russian war aims were not to foment regime change in Kyiv, Fox and Grapes stuff going on here.

Slava Ukraini

Posted by: Ghost of Kyiv | Mar 29 2022 18:28 utc | 8

Jezabeel @ 4

Yes. Thought I’d tell you at least one person here is on same page.

It does look like the Nazi political officers in each platoon are still in charge.The early desertions and unit surrenders are no longer reported. So the RF will kill all 60,000 in the cauldron. No one will care. They kill those numbers all the time and kill own citizens without a thought or a care. If there are no troops left for a photo op then resurrect the Ghost of Kyiv in triplicate.

Anyway those 60,000 never existed. It was Russian war propaganda.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 29 2022 18:31 utc | 9

Bellendcrap has what they purport to be a real time (or close) civilian casualty tracker. Something tells me they won't be differentiating btwn civvies intentionally harmed by (or staged by) the Urkra-Nazis vs. the RF military, though.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2022 18:32 utc | 10

Russia cannot under any circumstances allow an independent Ukrainian government still under Ukronazi and Western domination to continue. The result will simply be the need for a new invasion later as Ukraine remains contested between the West and Russia. Also, a loss of support by the Russian population.

That means that all of the East and South (on a line between the northern border of Moldova and Dnipro) need to become part of Russia, or a new state directly aligned with Russia. This would also solve the problem of Transnistria, as that would now abut Russia or a state allied with Russia (or become part of it). The question then becomes what to do with Kiev and the West. This is generally more easily defensible terrain and contains the main base of the Banderistas. It is also not very heavily industrialized.

We will have to wait and see what happens after the Ukrainian army in the East is destroyed (killed or captured) and how the rest of the Ukrainian power structure reacts. Given Kiev's role as a central transport hub and political center it would be much better for the Russian's to take it, the question would be at what price. For the longer-term I think that the capture of the complete territory of the Ukraine would be best, but again at what price? The reaction of the Ukrainian population and state to the destruction of the army in the East will determine things.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 29 2022 18:32 utc | 11

The revelations about Nazi atrocities, mistreatment of civilians, murder and torture of prisoners, and a Ukie army officer bragging about giving orders to castrate prisoners, will all heighten the intensity and viciousness of the fighting. It will also damp down any limited anti war sentiment inside Russia. (This is of course being completely ignored by the western MSM.)

Posted by: paul | Mar 29 2022 18:33 utc | 12

Posted by: Ghost of Kyiv | Mar 29 2022 18:28 utc | 8

Regime change in Kyiv has always been the aim unless the current puppets agree to snuff out the nazis and recognize autonomy of Dunbas; something they have been curiously unwilling to even acknowledge except via stand up comedy bits from Zelensky - let alone actually do.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2022 18:34 utc | 13

"....But during the eight years since the anti-democratic coup in Kiev the fascist ideology has deeply infiltrated all Ukrainian government structures. It will be hard for the Ukrainians to remove it even as its failures become obvious..."

It has to be understood that this ideology was largely imported from western europe and, particularly, north america where it has been kept alive, nourished and developed in places like Harvard. And with the sponsorship of government.

Those who, like Bob Sykes, are concerned about it spreading westwards are right in a sense- it has become a monster in Ukraine over the past eight years- but it would be a mistake to forget where it came from. And the epicentre of modern Naziism is in Canada, where sporting Nazi regalia has become as obligatory, in the political class, as Poppies once were.
In fact it will be interesting to see, next November 11th, whether blood and soil "Glory To Ukraine" scarves and pale yellow and blue flags drown out those Flanders Field Poppies.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 29 2022 18:38 utc | 14

The Ukraine would have to completely rearm, starting by about zero, should it want to regain significant military capabilities. It is hard to see how it will ever be able to finance that.

Sadly, there are scores of western banksters who will be happy to finance that (often via acts of Congress and taxpayer money) and I'm sure that "lethal aid" is flowing in unprecedented numbers as we speak. The goal of Uncle Scam and its EU lapdogs has always been to draw this out and make it as expensive as possible (for BOTH sides is what the MSM doesn't report).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2022 18:39 utc | 15

The problem I see for Russia in the future is that the West continues to fund and supply Ukrainian forces and once Russian forces pull back, once rearmed and resupplied with weapons and men mercenaries and all, that these forces will attack whatever position the Russian/Donbas forces have decided to stand at.

The West won't mind if the carnage continues, afterall in their eyes it will be Ukrainians killing Russians and vice versa. If Russian forces return to Russia, it will just be a matter of time before Ukrainian forces return to shelling the Donbas, again this will be the aim of Nato to keep the provocation ongoing.

Right now Russian forces have air superiority, the longer this operation goes on and if Russian forces pull back, there's a possibility that the Ukrainian forces could be trained out of country on how to fly fighter jets, jets supplied by any number of countries, and with Russian forces remaining in the East or pulling out, what would be their take on Ukraine acquiring fighter jets after the Russian operation is over, and would the jets be used against the Donbas region.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 29 2022 18:40 utc | 16

Posted by: bevin | Mar 29 2022 18:38 utc | 14

Much like the Nazis modeled their utopian society on the USA Jim Crow south?

That said, the main narratives I was seeing BEFORE the invasion talk began - and now quietly being memory holed - was the other way around. American and other Western neo-nazis were sending people to Ukraine to receive on-the-field battle training and to exchange ideas and ideologies. Could you please elaborate on the Harvard connection? I'm not doubting your take on this; just genuinely curious and hungry for more information.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2022 18:43 utc | 17

To better understand strategy&tactics of the RF-army, look into the blog of Andrei Martyanov and, even better, watch his superb YT videos:
> https://www.youtube.com/user/smoothieX12


Posted by: maningi | Mar 29 2022 18:44 utc | 18

To: Kana | Mar 29 2022 18:08 utc | 3 - Or anyone else who knows something about Pam Ho...

I've read a few pretty interesting pieces from Pam Ho over the past couple of years, but then she always seems to dive deep down some rabbit hole of her choosing and gets all new-agey pie in the sky nutty. What's her story and is she a reliable source of information and/or analysis?

Apologize for making so many posts in the past couple of minutes - my coffee has kicked in and I had reached a stopping point with my work. :-)

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2022 18:48 utc | 19

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 29 2022 18:40 utc | 16

If Ukraine accepts the Russian demands (practically capitulate). EU will be very eager to normalise oil and gas and other critical commodities deliveries. Russians will make sure Europeans understand quite well that any attempts to rearm Ukraine will mean complete breakup. Europeans will keep Poles and Baltic states at control, practically kicking the US out of Eastern Europe.

Posted by: Milos | Mar 29 2022 18:51 utc | 20

The "Donbass cauldron" still seems not to exist in MSM. Why is that?
One would guess that this could be an eye opener for many people, like wtf are 60-100K soldiers doing there?
The answer is obvious and justified a pre-emptive action.

Posted by: BelleDelphine | Mar 29 2022 18:52 utc | 21

If we can see this plan, then the Ukrainians and NATO can see this plan. What is their strategy to counter the fall of the troops in the Donbass and subsequent rolling up of Eastern Ukraine?
i.e. small arms are for guerilla warfare as you note, so are they just waiting for this plan to unfold and then start a guerilla uprising? That seems equivalent to sentencing millions of Ukrainians to death and permanent refugee status.

Posted by: Tom | Mar 29 2022 18:53 utc | 22

Fair guess... Z is in BATO nase in P.
If any fals flag pops, there is the spot to follow. Weird air activity there today. Many glights with "?"...

Posted by: Sock | Mar 29 2022 18:58 utc | 23

Read these:

http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z/

And this thread:

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1508875144952958986

Plus see Scott Ritter's long thread today. Quoted in Saker link above.

Posted by: wilbur | Mar 29 2022 18:59 utc | 24

The Russian move on Kiev is most likely Maskirovka, military deception, designed to make the Ukrainians reinforce the defense of their capitol with everything they have, so they can not reinforce the defense of the Donbass region, taking entire Donbass is for sure a goal of the Russian Army.

Now the Russians are claiming, they wanna scale down the offensive in the North, I think this is just further ongoing Maskirovka, you think the Ukranians are gonna believe this ? of course not, This message is designed to not be believed by the Ukranians, to make them think the opposit, that the big attack on Kiev is coming for sure any day now.

Afterall what army is going to announce where they gonna attack right ? The Russian Army just announced they not gonna attack in the North any more but will concentrate their attack on the east lol.

Posted by: Jimmy | Mar 29 2022 19:00 utc | 25

Hybrid Warfare and Gaseous Absurdity

The RF has demanded payment in roubles. The response of the EU states is to refuse this demand. The RF has indicated it will terminate the supply of LNG for non-payment. The EU suggests it will seek substitute LNG supply. The EU position represents an absurdist element of Hybrid Warfare. This post sets out some of the issues.

According to the IEA the EU consumed 155 billion cubic metres of LNG in 2021. Of this supply 45% was obtained from Russia ( https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year ).

The RF 2021 EU import share was 69.75 billion cubic metres per year or 5.8 billion cubic metres LNG per month. If the EU seeks to substitute for RF LNG this is the approximate monthly quantity required.

The largest LNG tankers are the QMAX class. These can transport 266,000 cubic metres of LNG ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q-Max ).

A simple calculation shows the monthly transport of 5.8 billion cubic metres of LNG by vessels with a capacity of 266,000 cubic metres of LNG requires a total of 21,852 shipments per month or approximately 705 shipments per day.

This volume of shipping will saturate the existing EU LNG offloading ports. These ports are already dedicated to handling other LNG imports. The time to unload an LNG cargo is approximately one day. This implies the need to construct 705 new LNG offloading ports because immediately following the day 1 arrival of 705 vessels there will be the Day 2 arrival of another 705 vessels with the same vessel traffic for Day 3 and all following days. The transit from Houston to Rotterdam takes 18 days outbound and 18 days empty return. With one day devoted to loading, and a further day to unloading, each vessel will spend 28 days on voyage. These figures make no allowance for vessel downtime for required maintenance intervals.

The transport of the required monthly volume of LNG will therefore require 705 QMAX x 31 days or total QMAX fleet of 21,855 vessels. Since the available yards are fully booked it is not clear when the full build out of the required fleet will occur. My experience in the offshore industry is that it takes approximately two years to construct an offshore drilling rig (MODU). The complexity of a QMAX may be slightly less than a MODU but even if construction were to require no more than a single year the required time to fleet completion would be 5,463 years if 4 yards were involved in the build out. At present the only yard competent in this vessel construction is in South Korea; the other three required yards would need to be upgraded, or new built. LNG tankers require a speciality steel to address thermal stress issues. This steel has a high nickel content; Russia is a major global supplier of nickel.

Since the EU has voiced the intention to fully eliminate the need for Russian LNG by the year 2030 the time to recover the investment in vessels and related LNG infrastructure is extremely limited. Within 8 years the EU seeks to fully replace the entire volume of LNG represented by Russian imports. The IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Roadmap helps fulfil the European Green Deal, an ambitious plan to eliminate all FF emissions in 28 years.

In 2020, U.S. natural gas production was about 10% greater than U.S. total natural gas consumption. The volume of produced gas surplus to US demand amounts to 91.5 billion cubic feet per day or 2.5 billion cubic metres of natural gas per day. This surplus is already contracted to the following countries:

TOP 10 US EXPORT DESTINATIONS
SOUTH KOREA..................453,483
CHINA........................449,667
JAPAN........................354,948
BRAZIL.......................307,714
SPAIN........................215,062
INDIA........................196,218
UK...........................195,046
TURKEY.......................188,849
NL...........................174,339
FRANCE.......................170,780

The US is therefore in the position of withdrawing supply from some of the above to punish them for lack of compliance to US demands and to reward vassal states. Looking at the list, which countries do you think will be disfavoured?

The full list of US foreign LNG exports by country is found here:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_MOVE_EXPC_S1_A.htm

Any commodity gravitates toward the highest price. The peak price is set by the marginal buyer. It is expected that the EU attempt to displace Russian LNG supply will be impossible to achieve in the short term without an extreme impact on price. These price impacts will not only affect EU consumers, they will impact all consumers including those in the US.

The EU will replace dependency on Russia by dependency on the "international rules based order" as interpreted by the global hegemon.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 29 2022 19:03 utc | 26

No 'tundra' in Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_European_Plain

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 29 2022 19:03 utc | 27

@Posted by: Jimmy | Mar 29 2022 19:00 utc | 25

Exactly, the Russians are fighting the war using classic tactics of misdirection, believing what they say about their future plans is a fool's errand. They also intentionally keep the media, and soldiers cell phone cameras away from the battlefield. I would expect surprises to come, not what the Russian senior military staff are telling us.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 29 2022 19:09 utc | 28

"If Ukraine accepts the Russian demands"

Milos (20).

You are assuming that Zelensky is calling the shots.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 29 2022 19:11 utc | 29

@ Republicofscotland #16 - agreed with your concerns, but consider the latest news that the US is going to scrap the oldest 30 or so of their F-22 fighter jets, which were their state-of-the-art machines. The reason given is that the repair and upgrade costs for these units are extremely high, and the savings will be diverted to 'new generation' aerial forces. What fighter jets would the UKR pilots be trained to fly? Maybe French Rafaels? Israeli something-or-others? Won't be the new generation Chinese designs, I'm guessing...

The USAF seems to be aware that the game has changed, but I think that it has more to do with RF anti-aircraft missiles than any aircraft design. Some prognostication that the US will go more toward drone design and perhaps swarming techniques. If a recent story about the RF shooting down a storm (18 missiles) attack is true. the US has some ground to catch up. I predict that they don't have the horses to do it.

Posted by: Paul Spencer | Mar 29 2022 19:11 utc | 30

The peace proposal forwarded by Ukraine is to be "studied" and eventually a response will be made. IMO, the aims of the operation are far from complete, so the response will be about as fast as the Outlaw US Empire's was to Russia's security proposals back in December--6-8 weeks, which about the time required to finish the jobs.

Although connected yet separate is the sanctions response that's only just begun. We know the domestic situation in Italy is dire. Croatia is threatening to cut off a Gazprom majority owned oil pipeline into Serbia that risks an armed confrontation (RT article source). And most of the EU faces having its gas shutoff if it refuses to pay for it with rubles. The French election is on 10 April, but we've received no news from French barflies on that front.

China continues to support Russia and today published an article blaming NATO for the very longstanding European refugee crisis and failure to help due to racist double standards. And of course, the Outlaw US Empire doesn't give a shit about any of them.

Meanwhile, Western propaganda spins the negotiations saying Russia has softened its core demands, which is rubbish published by the Financial Times (RT article). The only honest reporting I note is Gabbard's agreeing that Biden told the truth about the policy goal for Russia--regime change.

Otherwise, there's no hint of any policy change from the Kremlin or the MFA aside from the MoD admitting it will ease operations around Kiev to facilitate negotiations.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 29 2022 19:17 utc | 31

The Russian forces are also undergoing a slightly-delayed 30 day rotation. Troops will be replaced with fresh units.

A similar thing happened in Syria when some of the airforce units returned to Russia, only to be replaced with slightly more fresh units.

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Mar 29 2022 19:22 utc | 32

The gnashing of teeth on telegram today is wild. Granted, the Russian side probably should not have recited Ukraine's negotiating position because that was misconstrued as some sort of agreement. But perhaps it served a different purpose? The Kremlin knows that the real decision makers are in DC and London, and in both places there was an immediate reaction that indicates not only will Kiev not be allowed to negotiate a peace but that a peace will not change the sanctions. If the US had real leadership and diplomats, they would have kept their mouths shut or said something anodyne about how "we hope for progress and a ceasefire".

Posted by: Lex | Mar 29 2022 19:26 utc | 33

On the Irpin front, it appears Russian forces have withdrawn to the Bucha river line. They occupy Bucha and have removed forces from the North of Irpin.

This could be an indication from the Russians that offensive activities in that area are over for the time being.

Posted by: Jezza | Mar 29 2022 19:28 utc | 34

David Arakhamia, Medinsky’s opposite number in the Ukrainian delegation, said Kiev had sought a security guarantee from a number of nations that would work not unlike NATO’s mutual self-defense commitment.

He named the UK, China, the US, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel as possible guarantors, and claimed some of them have given their preliminary agreement to serve in that capacity.

How is that an improvement over no NATO? In any case, please keep Canada out of it. Anywhere that Fascist F**kwit Freeland goes, trouble will follow. The majority of Canadians would like us to be neutral as well, and not a vassal of the USA/Davos.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Mar 29 2022 19:34 utc | 35

Sushi @26--

BRAVO!!!!! I've wanted to read exactly that for weeks. I posted it to my Wall and posted a notice at Escobar's VK also. Great work!!!!!!

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 29 2022 19:37 utc | 36

#3 "The next phase will probably see more movement on the eastern side of the river."

I would consider holding off on advancing to Zaporizhzhia. It is home to Motor Sich, which is Ukraine's most valuable manufacturing export enterprise. It produces helicopter engines and gas turbines for warships. Chinese investors purchased a majority of Motor Sich. Under pressure from the US government in 2019, Zelensky issued freezing orders against the shares held by Chinese investors. Just 6 months ago, the Chinese investors dragged the Ukraine government to international arbitration to get back Motor Sich under a bilateral investment treaty between China and Ukraine.

If the Motor Sich factory is destroyed, it would be like Boeing getting destroyed in the US, making reconstruction a lot harder. If the factory is not destroyed and a new Eastern Ukraine government is formed and closely allied with Russia, then Chinese investors would get back their shares and invest in upgrading the plant. It would create thousands of jobs and be the manufacturing engine of the Republic of Eastern Ukraine.

Posted by: factory | Mar 29 2022 19:40 utc | 37

While there was progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine in the area of neutrality/disarmament, the issues of Crimea, Donbas and borders have seen no progress. Seems the Russians have decided to show Ukraine just what its new borders are going to be.

But the big issue is the current war between The Empire of Lies and Russia/China and other non-aligned States. Russia and China are prepared for a clean break. The United States relies upon a 'coalition of the willing' which means a coalition of the browbeaten and bribed. The global hegemon teeters on a high-wire.

The leadership of the USA is vacuous and vainglorious at the same time. Magical thinking has replaced common sense. The Democrats face a massacre this November in bi-elections. Putin/Hitler is all they have. Biden is a dead man walking and every moment in front of the camera drives home the point that American Leadership belongs in a natural history museum.

Russia and China have declared independence. The ball is in the USA's court. The folks at the top of the imperial pyramid scheme do not inspire confidence in a bright future.

Posted by: gottlieb | Mar 29 2022 19:40 utc | 38

Escobar reports the capture by Russian Spetsnaz of two of Azov's torturers, Sergei Velichko, 28 and Konstanin Nemichev, 26. Hopefully they will sing and more will be caught. Implications for Zelensky and all NATO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 29 2022 19:41 utc | 39

"The material de-militarization of the Ukraine is mostly done. During the next few weeks the Russian air and long range artillery forces will finish that task. The Ukraine would have to completely rearm, starting by about zero, should it want to regain significant military capabilities. It is hard to see how it will ever be able to finance that."

With all respect, it's really quite easy to see how Ukraine will "finance" that. Unless there is a comprehensive demilitarization agreement at the end of this, about three days after the end of hostilities, Zelensky's Uncle Sam will start sending the first of thousands of F-16s, Abrams tanks, Humvees, MRAPs, M4 rifles, Stinger missiles, and of course uncountable numbers of Javelins to rebuild Ukraine's armed forces, all provided absolutely free by the generosity of the American taxpayer. Within five years, the new Ukrainian military will be stronger and better equipped than it was before the Russian invasion, without a single hrivna having to be spent on it.

There must be no further underestimation of the task at hand on the part of Russia.

Posted by: AntiDem | Mar 29 2022 19:47 utc | 40

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 29 2022 18:40 utc | 16

Training a pilot and giving him an aircraft is only a very small part of it. It's not like all he has to do is top it up from jerry-cans, kick the tyres and check the oil before going off to work. :o)

Posted by: Awe | Mar 29 2022 19:49 utc | 41

@33 Lex

People want to see more, not less - understandably after the prisoner execution videos. But also a bit nuts, many want a siege and eventual surrender of Kiev.

Good point about Blinken's (US) hot take, shooing away any talk of incremental progress toward a deal. Clear that he views anyone within 1000 miles of there as expendable.

Posted by: ptb | Mar 29 2022 19:50 utc | 42

@b:

This map of the situation in Ukraine on March 29 is provided by the French Ministry of Defense.

It is likely the most realistic and neutral one available.

No, it’s not. For example, what it shows in Donbas is completely bogus.

The SouthFront map is much closer to reality.

Posted by: S | Mar 29 2022 19:56 utc | 43

@37 factory

Interesting angle re: China getting back their investment in the event of that territory being captured.

On the other hand, from the perspective of demilitarization, the smaller affordable jet engines they make are a good fit for subsonic cruise missiles or chunky close-air-support drones. So almost surprising if it's still standing. And would UA let it go without blowing it up on the way out if it were to change hands?

Posted by: ptb | Mar 29 2022 19:59 utc | 44


Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 29 2022 19:37 utc | 36

I must say that getting kudos from you is like getting a vote of approval from the master. Deeply apprciative of all of your work on MoA.

Cheers und Zum Vorteil!

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 29 2022 20:00 utc | 45

A simple calculation shows the monthly transport of 5.8 billion cubic metres of LNG by vessels with a capacity of 266,000 cubic metres of LNG requires a total of 21,852 shipments per month or approximately 705 shipments per day.

Sushi | Mar 29 2022 19:03 utc | 26

You are of by a factor of 600, as you confuse liquified volume and gaseous volume. Actually, only a little bit more than one shipment per day is needed (or eight per week).

Posted by: mmm | Mar 29 2022 20:04 utc | 46

"DEMILITARISATION" is relatively easy militarily through destruction and disarmament.

"DE-NACIFICATION", on the other hand, is far more difficult and protracted, and cannot be done by the Russian military (perhaps as a "guarantee power" in the background). The main work of "cleansing" must be done by forces of the police, judiciary and the inhabitants themselves, especially by the anti-fascists and hitherto persecuted among them ...

And, unfortunately, experience shows that this can only take place much later and only after the military operation. In the meantime, however, the TERROR in the cities against everyone who is suspected of being a collaborator and against everything that smells Russia-friendly continues - and under the conditions of Ukrainian "martial law" ... !!

The will to denazify in (Remnant) Ukraine, to dethrone its present-day "freedom heroes" ("Слава героям") will not be too widespread, and certainly not "sustainable".
That at least is the experience from West Germany after 1945 ...

Posted by: Norbert Berentz | Mar 29 2022 20:12 utc | 47

Sushi #26:

„The RF has indicated it will terminate the supply of LNG for non-payment.“

The RF does not supply LNG by its pipelines. LNG is liquified by -160 degrees Celsius. The Pipeline delivers gas under pressure of 80 bar. One m3 of LNG equals 600 m3 NG in the pipe.

Did you consider this in your maths?

Posted by: njet | Mar 29 2022 20:14 utc | 48

Sushi | Mar 29 2022 19:03 utc | 26

Brilliant post!
I loved this bit:–
"the required time to fleet completion would be 5,463 years if 4 yards were involved in the build out"

****
There is a distinct possibility that Russia will now use "soft power". A printed circular has been mentioned, containing offers of reducing heating costs in Ukraine to the levels found in Russia (masssive drop), augmenting pensions to be paid by the Russian Government to Russian levels (about 10x), and other advantages in kind, To some of the poorest people on earth!

If such a circular was printed in large quantities and distributed widely, then taken with the fact of Russian troops being very careful to save who they can on the Ukrainian side, then a backbone of poor peasants, excluding the now fled elites, could easily be built up.

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 29 2022 20:15 utc | 49

>>>Those regions are tundra

Steppe, not tundra. Tundra is way up north!

Posted by: siberiancat | Mar 29 2022 20:25 utc | 50

Sushi @ 26

Thank you for that thorough overview / appraisal. Disaster is the word that comes to mind for the EU. I think your export figures are for LNG exports. The US actually sends a lot of gas to Mexico by pipeline. An article on Wolf Street dot com listed the figures for US exports. It is worth a read. There is not a lot of spare capacity anywhere. I think most of Qatar's output is committed to long-term Asian contracts.
Europe is in desperate need of change in many areas. This will probably kick-start the process.
I enjoy your posts.

Posted by: stratus | Mar 29 2022 20:26 utc | 51

"The Russian troops around Kiev and Chernigov will be mostly withdrawn probably up to Chernobyl where a part of them may take defensive positions while most of the units deployed around Kiev will be moved back to Belarus and Russia for new operations in eastern Ukraine."

What? Nothing wrong with redeploying troops if you don't need them to hold territory, but voluntary withdrawing and handing territory around the capital back to Ukraine would be insane.

Posted by: Jon0815 | Mar 29 2022 20:30 utc | 52

@ b

The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetsk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control. Next to Donetsk and Luhansk the region north of Crimea is a likely candidate. Odessa and Dnipro may also be still on the menu.


Odessa will be on the menu. That serves as a 7-course dessert. There are the 2014 atrocities to be settled in this historical Russian city.

Any remaining Ukraine territory on the Black Sea is an open invitation for HMS Defender.

NATO dumbwits still have their eyes on Crimea. It’s a promise from UK Secretary of Defense, Ben Wallace, who cautioned 'Zelensky' "not to cede Crimea in any negotiations.”

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 29 2022 20:40 utc | 53

In order to determine the success of denazification, it depends on how that success is measured.

While it might not be feasible to eradicate the mindset, I wonder if they will settle for something more tangible: Ukraine destroyed Communist and Red Army monuments and memorials, and renamed streets after Ukrainian Nazi collaborators, and even German Nazis. Maybe Russia will encourage Ukraine to destroy memorials and monuments in honor of heroes like Bandera.

The Nazi mindset will keep a much lower profile when it is no longer fashionable to worship those "heroes". Maybe its adherents can move to Germany. If Germany does not mind people worshipping at Bandera's grave today, it can hardly refuse them.

(I don't think Germany will welcome them. It's one thing to use Nazis in faraway Ukraine while denying their very existence. It is totally different to welcome them as neighbours... Just a hunch.)

Posted by: Martina | Mar 29 2022 20:46 utc | 54

Thank you b.

Simultaneous the 'war of negotiating' is underway in a typically 'serious' way.

IMO the UkeNa卐is are big on hate and revenge and low on tolerance for any perceived weakness. This presents great opportunity for Russian advantage and gains in that front. Every concession by the negotiating team that diminishes the UkeNa卐i superiority will be rejected and its perpetrator likely facing a short lifespan.

So, like the kettled up towns and cities, the Ukeleadership team are human shields and hostages to the black sun. The Russians are now free to mop the east up and the balance of the eastern countryside.

Meanwhile the global diplomatic heat can be played by Master Lavrov.

I see, in the previous thread, some barflies are wailing and gnashing their teeth at negotiations. Remain calm, the Russians are good at this and have a well practiced capacity for advancing and talking at the same time. Not so much the U卐A.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2022 20:54 utc | 55

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 29 2022 19:03 utc | 26

Thanks for that breakdown. The short version from it is that the EU is f**ked without Russian oil and gas. It all just looks like a fight over land and markets (i.e. human history since the Neolithic): land-grabs in East Ukraine where Kolomoisky and his ilk funded neo-nazis as muscle to acquire it, and US looking to isolate the EU from Russia sufficiently to create the space needed to insert its own LNG as a substitute European energy supply. The land-grab seems to have been pushed back, but the EU is not unlike China in the 19th century during the Opium Wars, bullied morally and literally into buying only this product (US LNG/Opium) and receiving it only by exchanging that product (Dollars/Silver).

Children take note, this is Capitalism and Empire 101.

Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 29 2022 20:55 utc | 56

Some people were really confused by my explanation of the “trading ruble” arrangement in the previous thread. Hopefully, this diagram will make it easier to understand:


Samsung <- 1 million USD-- Uniper

2000 smartphones | 1 million m³ of natural gas
Samsung Russia -- 85 million RUB -> Uniper Russia

Let’s go over the diagram:

  1. Samsung ships 2000 smartphones to its 100%-owned Russian subsidiary Samsung Russia.

  2. Samsung Russia sells 2000 smartphones to Russians for 85 million rubles.

  3. As part of an agreement between Samsung and Uniper, Samsung Russia transfers 85 million rubles to Uniper Russia, a 100%-owned Russian subsidiary of Uniper.

  4. Uniper Russia buys 1 million m³ of natural gas from Gazprom for 85 million rubles.

  5. Uniper Russia ships 1 million m³ of natural gas to its parent company Uniper over natural gas pipelines.

  6. Uniper sells 1 million m³ of natural gas to its European customers for 900,000 euros, which it converts to 1 million U.S. dollars.

  7. As part of the agreement between Samsung and Uniper, Uniper transfers 1 million U.S. dollars to Samsung.

  8. Samsung uses the 1 million U.S. dollars to manufacture 2000 smartphones.

Points 3 and 7 are where the “magic” happens.

Of course, this diagram is a simplification. In reality, Samsung Russia has expenses in Russia and pays taxes to the Russian government, there are transportation costs involved, Uniper and Samsung are making a profit, Uniper won’t be buying rubles just from Samsung, but from many companies, etc. However, the diagram is still useful for understanding the general idea.

(Another option is to buy rubles with gold, but I wanted to highlight the trade option.)

Posted by: S | Mar 29 2022 21:01 utc | 57

@Martina (54)

The Nazi mindset and practices are alive and kicking in Germany today.

Remember the Kulturkammer-treatment Gergiev got in Munich?
I believe that was one day after the Special Operation of Denazification in The Ukraine started. Nuff said.

Posted by: bjd | Mar 29 2022 21:05 utc | 58

Finally, though in a horribly distorted anti Russia piece, Wapo admits some Ukrainian war crimes: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/28/ukraine-kyiv-russia-civilians/

They hesitantly, and with a ton of excuses, admit that placing artillery and firing posts in civilian areas "violates international law and the rules of war".

Posted by: aquadraht | Mar 29 2022 21:10 utc | 59

Samsung Suspends Shipments of Phones, Chips to Russia https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/samsung-suspends-shipments-of-phones-chips-to-russia


🤣`...

Posted by: Laurence | Mar 29 2022 21:13 utc | 60

Sushi @26

I CuM of LNG is equal to 600 CuM of NG. When NG is cooled to around -162 Deg C and liquefied, the volume becomes 1/600th. Did you take that into account in your calculations. Thanks

Posted by: James | Mar 29 2022 21:13 utc | 61

Likklemore #53

Odessa will be on the menu. That serves as a 7-course dessert. There are the 2014 atrocities to be settled in this historical Russian city.

Any remaining Ukraine territory on the Black Sea is an open invitation for HMS Defender.

NATO dumbwits still have their eyes on Crimea. It’s a promise from UK Secretary of Defense, Ben Wallace, who cautioned 'Zelensky' "not to cede Crimea in any negotiations.”

Exactly that. Thank you for reminding me of the Wally. I will get a laugh out of that excellent prank for years to come. It reminds me of the merry pranksters of Oz.

The Odessa region must certainly be re-civilised fairly soon. Leave no crack in the wall for the UKUSA to worm its way in imo.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2022 21:22 utc | 62

The real news has been excess mortality in younger age groups. Not in Ukraine.
@ Jezabeel | Mar 29 2022 18:17 utc | 4
@ oldhippie

This is my greatest fear. The lead news story is never the biggest story. And the timing is perfect for covering fallout from the past two years.

Posted by: Rae | Mar 29 2022 21:23 utc | 63

Laurence #60

Samsung is not bright. Huawei and many other Chinese enterprises make excellent phones and tablets. They are the equal of any of the others. Great in phone cameras too.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2022 21:26 utc | 64

I am going to have a go at making a judgement about real successes and failures so far:

USA objectives from ideal to OK:
1. Destroy Russia completely ie balkanise it - not achieved
2. Regime change in Russia - does not seem likely
3. Recapture Sevastopol - not achieved
4. Severely weaken the Russian economy - not achieved
5. Involve Russia in a long term destructive quagmire reducing its military - not achieved and the current Russian moves seem designed to avoid this
6. NATO/US fixed bases in Ukraine - not achieved at this stage
7. Retain Ukraine as a forward NATO/like base threatening Russia, including military power in the Sear of Azov - not achieved
8. Strengthen the role of NATO in Europe -partly achieved, but at the same time looks to be a paper tiger
9. Preserve US status as single world hegemon, militarily and economically and diplomatically - partly achieved but in the short term. The dollar looks to be in danger
10. Reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas - achieved
11. Prevent China's expansion of Belt and Road - achieved but may only be short term
12. Weaken Germany to allow US economy to compete- achieved
13. Destroy Europe relations with Russia achieved
14. Demonise Russia on the world stage - partly achieved but it had more or less already happened eg. the little Russian skater so nothing really new
15. Boost Jo Biden in the polls - not achieved

So at this stage the US has had a PR victory sort of, but given the extent to which there was already hostility to Russia, I am not sure much has changed. So the big success for the USA has been to weaken Europe and in the longer term possibly to contain China.

Enough for now. Need breakfast. There is still Russia, Ukraine and Europe to consider. And China.


Posted by: watcher | Mar 29 2022 21:36 utc | 65

Posted by: mmm | Mar 29 2022 20:04 utc | 46


You are of by a factor of 600, as you confuse liquified volume and gaseous volume. Actually, only a little bit more than one shipment per day is needed (or eight per week).

If you review the source documents you will find all figures are for LNG. LNG stands for Liquified Natural Gas. This is gas that has alrady been processed through an LNG train, is shipped as an LNG cargo, and is received as LNG before being re-gasified and introduced into a domestic distribution network.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 29 2022 21:47 utc | 66

factory @37 re Motor Sich

I would hope that the Yuzhnoye missile/space complex in Dnipro will be liberated also. This is where the USSR churned out ICBMs "like sausages". It's been run down worse than Motor Sich recently, especially since the 2014 coup and related sanctions disrupted the supply of Russian engines for its flagship Zenit rocket that launched from a converted oil rig as part of the Russian/Ukrainian/US Sea Launch joint venture (allowing Elon Musk to seize its dominant position in the comsat launch market).

Yuzhnoye still produces the 1st stage of the US Antares rocket that launches supplies to the International Space Station, although its Russian engines probably means SpaceX will take this business also. But it shows that Yuzhnoye can likely still produce an ICBM in relatively short order. President Putin mentioned Yuzhnoye in the context of the denuclearization of Ukraine, so it is unlikely Russia will allow this capability to remain in the hands of the Kiev authorities (or their Nazi puppet masters). Hopefully this will mean the liberation rather than the destruction of this historic space enterprise.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Mar 29 2022 21:49 utc | 67

Laurence #60 : Oops

Which companies have pulled out of Russia over the Ukraine invasion?

Posted by: Awe | Mar 29 2022 21:55 utc | 68

"It is hard to see how it will ever be able to finance that." - don't worry, there are a number of fiat printing presses up to the task.

Posted by: CalDre | Mar 29 2022 21:58 utc | 69

@11 Roger

That means that all of the East and South (on a line between the northern border of Moldova and Dnipro) need to become part of Russia, or a new state directly aligned with Russia. This would also solve the problem of Transnistria, as that would now abut Russia or a state allied with Russia (or become part of it).

Surely, the retained parts of Ukraine cannot be absorbed into Russia proper, as that would simply move the border (and line of territorial threat) further west towards NATO. The encirclement problem would still remain.

What Russia needs is a buffer state, a friendly state or at least a neutral one, between it and NATO. At this stage it seems unlikely that this will be Ukraine Mk 2 (minus the Donbass). So is an entirely new country even possible in the given circumstances? Does Russia have the wherewithall to plan and deliver it? Will China (and India) support such a move?

Posted by: echelon | Mar 29 2022 21:59 utc | 70

Posted by: factory | Mar 29 2022 19:40 utc | 37

Wasn't Yushmash in Dnipro selling rocket engines to North Korea?
The Motor Sich factory in Zaporizhzhia designing jet engines for China would be equally interesting.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 29 2022 21:59 utc | 71

The footage shows the crosses drawn on the night of March 27-28 at the Azovstal plant to receive Ukrainian helicopters, with the help of which it was planned to evacuate Azov commander Prokopenko and the commander of the 36th AFU Marine Brigade Baranyuk with a number of very important foreign mercenaries.

On March 18, Zelensky awarded these commanders "heroes of Ukraine."

Two sorties were made for the evacuation. The approach was made from the side of the Sea of Azov. During the first attempt on March 28, one helicopter was destroyed. The second attempt to enter the territory of Azovstal was foiled yesterday, on March 29, but the crew did not dare to enter the air defense zone, and after being irradiated they went back.

Air defense was strengthened in the area of the plant. Any attempt to evacuate the commanders will be firmly suppressed. Although the bait is worthy enough to put down a dozen helicopters.

Posted by: nona | Mar 29 2022 22:05 utc | 72

@njet | Mar 29 2022 20:14 utc | 48
When standardized gas units are mentioned for trade, volume is around athmospheric pressure, not pipeline pressure, or LNG volume. For better standardization also energy is used, in MWh or BtU.

Posted by: aquadraht | Mar 29 2022 22:06 utc | 73

@Posted by: echelon | Mar 29 2022 21:59 utc | 70

Putin specifically stated that Ukraine had lost its right to be an independent nation with its current borders, it will be a buffer state (Novorussya?) or part of Russia. There is no other option that will not require continuous Russian involvement to stop Western meddling.

This area will have a large Russian-speaking population, a majority in many parts, that will help Russia maintain its friendly orientation. The north-west of the country is a very different kettle of fish, better to give that headache to the West. It will be completely land-locked, and little industrialized, and far away from the current Russia/Ukraine border - with Novorussya and Belarus bordering it on three side.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 29 2022 22:06 utc | 74

watcher @65--

From the Saker's sitrep we can add proven inferiority of NATO weapons to Russian weapons and systems:

It is now clear that the Pentagon leadership has seen the utterly dismal performance of the Javelin and now wants to phase it out from U.S. forces. Remember, out of thousands of Javelins supplied, thousands of videos published by Ukraine, not a single successful usage of the system has ever been recorded. In fact the vast majority of successful Ukrainian defeats of Russian armor happens at the ends of legacy Soviet/Russian systems and mostly artillery. Russian forces continue to find Javelin units completely unused because Ukr troops have found them to be unwieldy and impractical in combat – too long to set up and use, too heavy to carry around, and not effective even when used. For urban combat where troops have to be as light, mobile, and agile as possible, the Javelin is absolutely worthless with its large CLU interface and overly-bulky design. The Pentagon has clearly seen the failure of the over-hyped system.

-In another sudden and unexpected report, the Pentagon now wants to scrap DOZENS of F-22’s.

They have suddenly decided they want to ‘divert funding’ to the next generation platform. There is clearly connection here to something the Pentagon has witnessed in Ukraine that has left it scrambling to rethink its approach to modern warfare. You see all proxy wars are laboratories for Great Powers to test and assess their equipment. The F-22 was the flagship of the U.S. airforce, the ONLY plane forbidden by Congress to sell to any ally even in ‘export version’. The F-35 was meant for the export market while F-22 was supposed to be solely the unique and unmatched great hope and pinnacle of American engineering that would lead to victories in future wars. But it seems now that the Pentagon has had a taste of what modern Russian air defenses / radars are capable in Ukraine and is no longer confident of the F-22’s chances. It has suddenly scrambled to desperately dump the F-22 and prepare for the “next generation” platform titled the ‘Next Generation Air Dominance’ project, which would consist of heavily utilizing integrated drone warfare and possible drone swarms controlled by the pilot. This appears to indicate the U.S. sees no other way to defeat Russian air defenses and airpower in general apart from massive over-utilization of integrated drone saturation – it can no longer count on F-22’s after seeing how Russia has completely nullified the Ukrainian air and anti-air capabilities, which by the way were orders of magnitude greater than the capabilities of the Serbians in the 90’s who humiliated the U.S. air force several times.

This indicates that the gap between NATO weapons producers and Russian is widening. This fact ought to have European nations asking the following question: Why become dependent on the Outlaw US Empire for energy and weapons when you can save lots of money by remaining dependent on Russian energy and buying their better and less expensive weapons, while admitting the reality that Russia isn't going to attack you unless you're a Nazi and offers a far better economic future?

Europe's enemies are the Russophobes and Neoliberals, not Russia. Hungary and Serbia know, but what will it take to convince Europeans--not those claiming to lead them?

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 29 2022 22:10 utc | 75

@Sushi #26
Don't confuse LNG with overall natural gas imported/consumed by the EU.
Shellenberger's numbers are probably more accurate: 560 bcm consumed, 230 bcm produced by EU and closely allied countries (Norway).
The EU is smoking crack if they think they can replace Russian natural gas anytime in the next decade.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2022 22:12 utc | 76

Re De-Nazification
Posted by: Norbert Berentz | Mar 29 2022 20:12 utc | 47

In the last Ukrainian election the majority voted for
卍elensky (The use of the "Z" character has been prohibited by the President of Ukraine) as his platform sought a rapprochement with Russia.

On completion of the Special Operation, if the pro-Russian areas are recreated as independent "statelets" then in the remainder of Ukraine the pro-nazi portion of the electorate will become dominant.

The future of De-nazification will be highly dependent on the post conflict configuration of the region.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 29 2022 22:15 utc | 77

Posted by: Ghost of Kyiv | Mar 29 2022 18:28 utc | 8

BREAKING NEWS: "DeghostofKyyyyyiiiVfication" just added to Ukie terms of surrender by Serguei Lavrov!
My advice: don't feed the ghost(привидение)!

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 29 2022 22:19 utc | 78

@Laurence #60:

Samsung Suspends Shipments of Phones, Chips to Russia https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/samsung-suspends-shipments-of-phones-chips-to-russia

Source: Suspension of Samsung deliveries to Russia is temporary (TASS, March 5, 2022 — in Russian)

Deliveries of Samsung products to Russia have been temporarily suspended, all applications and services will continue to work in full. Official Samsung stores will also continue to work, a source in the company told TASS.

"The current situation has caused a temporary disruption in our deliveries to Russia. Due to the current circumstances, it may take some time to find a solution. However, we will resume stable operation as soon as possible. The online store and official Samsung stores in Russia will also continue to operate" - said the source of the agency.

According to him, the company will continue to provide service in full. All mobile applications and services will continue to operate as usual.

Posted by: S | Mar 29 2022 22:20 utc | 79

@26 and @66 - Sushi -

"The largest LNG tankers ... can transport 266,000 cubic metres of LNG .... A simple calculation shows the monthly transport of 5.8 billion cubic metres of LNG by vessels ...."

LNG is about 609 times as compressed as natural gas, so actually transporting 70 billion m^3 per year only requires about 432 shipments. There are currently 45 QMax and QFlex ships. The more pressing problem is that Qatar has almost all of its gas tied up in long-term contracts, which it is on record saying it will not breach. But Qatar is working on projects to increase gas production by 67% by 2027.

"If you review the source documents you will find all figures are for LNG" - no, they are not. Aside from when the LNG designation is given, natural gas usage is not specified in liquified form but in gaseous form (at 60° F).

Posted by: CalDre | Mar 29 2022 22:20 utc | 80

US$ now down to 87.5 ruble, on the way back down to the 75 level of before the Ukrainian conflict. The US attempt to crush the Russian currency is now a complete failure. We may end up with a stronger ruble given the ongoing trade surplus and capital controls, together with the payments for exports in rubles.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 29 2022 22:22 utc | 81

Dezenas de explosões agora em Kiev.
Eu não acho que será como a 5ª e 6ª colunas torcendo e comemorando.

Dozens of explosions now in Kiev.
I don't think it will be like the 5th and 6th columns cheer and celebrate.

Posted by: Dimi | Mar 29 2022 22:23 utc | 82

Samsung Suspends Shipments of Phones, Chips to Russia”

Posted by: Laurence | Mar 29 2022 21:13 utc | 60

Fine. Huawei will send a dozen roses and take over their market share. China benefits.
And of chips…..neon for semi-conductor is a critical component. Did Samsung or TSMC stockpile inventory?

Chip shortage fears grow as half of neon supply is hit by war
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/march/chip-shortage-fears-grow-as-half-of-neon-supply-is-hit-by-war/


Fears of a neon shortage have grown after two key suppliers in Ukraine shuttered operations due to the Russian invasion.
Ingas and Cryoin are responsible for 45-54% of the world’s semiconductor grade neon but halted operations in mid -March, according to company representatives contacted by Reuters.

More than 90% of neon used in the US chip industry is sourced from Ukraine.

The Atlantic Council, a US think tank, said: “The negative impact of neon shortages on an already ailing semiconductor industry cannot be underestimated. Its ripple effect would reach far across the global economy.”
[.]

Can’t help it. The West shot themselves in the head while aiming the weapon at Russia.

China benefits:
Chinese suppliers of noble gases, key for chipmaking, ramp up production to meet surging demands

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 29 2022 22:23 utc | 83

I always checkmark the uneasy end note.

Anything beyond that depends on the willingness of the U.S. proxy government in Kiev to submit to Russia's demands. Russia can leave it at that or it can continue to mow the grass until none is left.

This feels like appeasement to the West...again. Appeasement is not the way to get results. It is a meager exchange for all that risk and young blood already shed. Mow the lawn in Ukraine. Make it rain!...Everywhere. Command respect. What is there to lose? There is nothing left to lose when the die has been cast and they will never forgive that and will return for vindication. The USNATO sharks smell weakness a mile off shore waiting for their prey to test the water.

Only the other side has everything to lose now. They have no concept of victory after successive defeat. So surrender nothing.

This timely moment will be lost forever. What gain is there in that when you had nothing left to lose? Life?...with regret? It is worse than death. Regret is the end. Triumph is the beginning. Which do you prefer?

Posted by: Circe | Mar 29 2022 22:23 utc | 84

@74 Roger

Thanks for the clarification. I understand the need for a buffer state, although creating an entirely new country from scratch will take an enormous effort and the risks are self-evident. Just saying it will happen does not make it feasible. Has anybody seen any good explanations for how it might be implemented (and funded)?

However, I still do not understand how absorbing the relevant bits of Ukraine into Russia proper solves anything. It just moves the border. I suppose it will depend on how much of a wild west the remaining stub(s) become. You yourself call it/them a headache.

Posted by: echelon | Mar 29 2022 22:31 utc | 85

@Laurence #60

Of course, Samsung was only used as an example to illustrate the general idea. Apparently, you are too stupid to understand that.

Posted by: S | Mar 29 2022 22:37 utc | 86

@57 - S

The problem with this diagram is that it is still using dollars and Euros as currencies in the process, which can be sanctioned (if they decide to sanction Russian energy, which for now they haven't - aside from US imports, but those are not the much broader "can't use for or with" sanctions). Second, Samsung has no interest in buying gas and engaging in these types of transactions.

So here is a simpler plan:

1. BMW (or any other Empire producer) sells cars to Russia for rubles.
2. BMW sells the rubles to the EU Central Bank in exchange for Euros.
3. The EU Central Bank sells the rubles to the EU gas importers in exchange for Euros (which the gas importers receive from their clients).
4. These gas importers import Russian gas using those rubles.

This way, no third party is involved - the EU Central Bank simply has to act as a clearing house for rubles (so BMW knows that it can convert the rubles to Euros and the gas importers know they can convert Euros to rubles), and, obviously, one of the central functions of a central bank is to act as currency converter. Doesn't have to be EU Central Bank specifically, they could farm the task out to their favored investment banks (Goldman) to provide them monopoly profits.

The advantage for Russia is not only that it never has to touch Euros or Dollars, but that Europe is forced to abandon its own sanctions against Russia to acquire the rubles it needs to purchase Russian gas. They can't simply provide a fiat currency - they must provide actual goods (your diagram has a similar effect, just highlighting it) that Russia wants - and what it will want is not BMW cars but technology and manufacturing equipment so it can build out its own economy while EU develops alternative energy sources.

Posted by: CalDre | Mar 29 2022 22:40 utc | 87

S @ 57:

Very neat arrangement you put up there but this one works only as long as the real exchange rates (as in, the exchange rates at the time the transactions take place) between rubles and euros, and between euros and dollars remain stable.

The reality of course is the transactions in the diagram will not occur all at once or even on the same day and the exchange rates may fluctuate several times over the period the transactions start and are completed. Plus of course exchange rates also include the profits and commissions that banks or other financial institutions charge for converting from one currency to another.

I realise the diagram is a much simplified model of what happens in real life but like all models it has to exclude a lot that makes such transactions between Samsung and Uniper more complicated than at first appears.

Posted by: Jen | Mar 29 2022 22:42 utc | 88

Lex | Mar 29 2022 19:26 utc | 33

The Russians always have Ukraine's bad faith in the Minsk agreements, among others, to slow any negotiations until the military has accomplished all pre war goals. Inspection protocols, DMZ's all over the place, numerical limits and so on once the shooting ends. It's good to be on top.

Posted by: jhill | Mar 29 2022 22:44 utc | 89

OK so now more controversial what were Russia's goals and objectives?


1. Early capitulation of Kiev with a very limited war - not achieved
2. Pro Russian regime in Ukraine combined with denazification - not achieved
3. Removal of hostile military bases in Odesssa and Nokoleiv under Russian control - not achieved yet and unlikely - disappointing
4. Friendly or independent region up to the Dnieper river - not achieved yet and not very likely
5. Friendly or independent Karkov - not achieved - big disappointment I suspect
6. Security of nuclear installations - partly achieved
7. No NATO bases in Ukraine - possibly achieved
8. Removal of bioweapons labs - probably achieved
9. Recognition of Russian control of Crimea probably achieved
10.Neutrality for Ukraine - possibly achieved
11.Recognition of the two breakaways - not achieved yet but possible
12. Strengthened relations with Europe especially Germany - not achieved
13. Security in the Sea of Azov - achieved
14. Security of Sevastopol - achieved
15. Water supply to Crimea - achieved
16. Security for the two breakaway provinces achieved
17. Defanging the Ukrainian military - achieved
18. Strengthening of Russia's economy relative to USA (and weakening dollar) - partly achieved
19. Recognising Russia as an equal partner on the world stage - partly achieved
20. Weakening the fifth column within Russia - probably achieved

My feeling is that the military campaign has been OK but there are some disappointments. Nikolayev/Odessa and Karkov are the two I see as essentially failing so far. They were NEVER aiming for Kiev except via capitulation, so I do not count that as a failure. Given the city has not been destroyed it may even be counted as a success.

Posted by: watcher | Mar 29 2022 22:48 utc | 90

I don't think Russia is risking escalation all the way up to nuclear without having a far greater strategic goal in mind than merely the pacification of Ukraine. More likely is that - just like the US axis - Russia/Greater Eurasia believes that now is the time to bring the AngloZionist Empire down. First, Europe is going to go into a steep depression and then the US from inflation, supply chain disruptions, internal political turmoil culminating in another fraudulent election in November. All this will end up with the US no longer being able to project itself internationally as a financial and military hegemon. THAT is the strategic purpose of this current conflict in which Ukraine is simply the only (for now) kinetic battle ground. The war, however, is being waged geopolitically.

The US axis meanwhile believes it can bring Russia to its knees by Christmas at which point Putin will be toppled an a Western-friendly regime can be put in his place. The longer this goes on, the more foolhardy this hope seems.

A third possibility is that this is all a managed crisis the purpose of which is to engender a worldwide depression after which the Great Reset can be instituted involving some sort of one-world solution. For this to be possible, the current bankster-cartels will have to surrender the reins unless they have found a way to get Russia-China to live under their tent. Unlikely.

Posted by: Scorpion | Mar 29 2022 22:49 utc | 91

S@86

You are the positing ridiculously simple solutions to incredibly complex problems.

And you call others stupid.

You are the simpleton here.

Posted by: David F | Mar 29 2022 22:50 utc | 92

Re: 卍elensky

Russia demands that the Latin alphabet recognize the independence of the letters Z and V. It is assumed that after a Popular Referendum the letters would join the Cyrillic alphabet.

Meanwhile, facts on paper have overtaken the developments on the ground. Z and V have already started to be integrated into the Cyrillic alphabet, and appear in words like Zаписки, Vоенкор and VоZмеZдие.

The use of Z and V in Latin text has already been banned and criminalized. As compensation for the lost letters, the Latin alphabet may demand that Kanji turn over the characters 卍 and 卐.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 29 2022 22:51 utc | 93

@ karlof1 75
The F-35 was meant for the export market
The F-35 was meant for a lot of things. It was to be an inexpensive, agile fighter with high commonality among the three models with a stealth features which some aver (e.g. Trump) make it invisible.
Forget it.
> The F-35 is still in development, after twenty years, with full production not allowed because it has not passed operational test and evaluation.
> It's 'stealth' feature has never been tested. Yes, it does have a reduced radar signature from the front, but not so much elsewhere. Plus it has the largest, hottest engine ever put in a fighter jet which means that any long-distance bombings will be kamikaze flights due to its tremendous heat signature, doubled with after-burner usage. . .The heavy -35 is useless in close quarters against enemy fighter jets, by the way.
> The F-35 is a crappy poor performing expensive aircraft with 61% availability. Its publicized low purchase cost comes from Lockheed, with no government audit permitted. A recent Air Force report on a totally destroyed F-35 put the value at $175,983,949. They are over $200 million each with initial spares, helmet etc. Five for a billion! Three of which might fly.
>The F-35 has a high operational cost. Every hour the F-35 is on the air it costs around $36,000 which is almost 50 percent more than what an F-16 costs to fly. Therefore pilots spend more time in simulators and less time in the cockpit, which doesn't please them.
> A $14 billion Pentagon software upgrade for F-35 'flying computer' jets is being installed on planes that are already deployed even though it’s “immature, deficient and insufficiently tested,” according to a new assessment by the military’s testing office.
>Drones have proven themselves to obsolete heavy, manned fighters (The Air Force has a large shortage of fighter pilots.)

Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 29 2022 22:52 utc | 94

Also, who fucked up the formatting? This is not an easy thread to read on my phone.

Posted by: David F | Mar 29 2022 22:52 utc | 95

watcher @90--

Considering Russia never listed any timetable for accomplishing its goals, your list is something a concern troll would compile. None of us watching everything unfold is concerned that Russia won't attain its goals. And at least some of us know that Ukraine is only the first of several goals to be attained. Perhaps a report card can be compiled after December 31 when snow is falling on the dust.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 29 2022 22:54 utc | 96

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in all-cause mortality among US adults aged 25 to 44 years from March through July 2020. In 3 HHS regions, COVID-19 deaths were similar to or exceeded unintentional opioid overdoses that occurred during several corresponding months of 2018.

Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, ina

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

"The real news has been excess mortality in younger age groups. Not in Ukraine.
@ Jezabeel | Mar 29 2022 18:17 utc | 4
@ oldhippie

This is my greatest fear. The lead news story is never the biggest story. And the timing is perfect for covering fallout from the past two years.

Posted by: Rae | Mar 29 2022 21:23 utc | 63" > /dev/null

Bon voyage: https://www.google.com/search?q=excess+mortality+in+younger+age+groups

Posted by: Laurence | Mar 29 2022 22:55 utc | 97

@26 Sushi

Just like I stated: Russia has nothing to lose.

So why snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by appeasing the other side now?

Posted by: Circe | Mar 29 2022 22:55 utc | 98

@ 26 and 36

The LNG volume is about 593 times less than the piped gas volume, resulting in a requirement for nine 266,000 m3 LNG containers per week to transport the RF supplied volume of 69.75 B m2 of gas over a year. Using a turn-around time of 9 weeks for loading, shipping to EU, unloading and returning to USA, - a spread-sheet indicates that 90 LNG vessles should do the trick. This includes an additional eight ships to cover for peaks, maintenance and other mishaps. So we are looking at a minimum of 90 man years to build the required LNG fleet.

Posted by: karlS | Mar 29 2022 22:56 utc | 99

nice round up and summary, b, many thanks

Posted by: michaelj72 | Mar 29 2022 22:57 utc | 100

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