UMB@400. obviously its true about self petting and going blind.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Mar 28 2022 20:54 utc | 404

One issue that I suspect will rapidly emerge as a result of non supply of Russian gas is racially based rioting. Now there are something like 1.3 million Syrians in Germany, already displaced, along with many from poorer European countries including Turkey and now i assume Ukraine. Now when those German factories start to cut back on staff as they must, these new immigrants will be the first put off. With no jobs or security, crime will rise as it always does and racial/ethnic tensions will inflame.
Have I read the situation in Germany correctly?

Posted by: watcher | Mar 28 2022 21:10 utc | 406

The resultant economic and financial crash as the German (and European in general) economies fell apart would be a massive blowback on the US when the financial system is so unstable and weak. This would not be in the interests of the US elite, a vassal is only useful if you don’t destroy it. [snip]
Posted by: Roger | Mar 28 2022 20:01 utc | 390

But the US elite doesn’t believe there will be significant blowback. By the time they realize they were wrong, it will have been much too late.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 28 2022 21:34 utc | 408

Posted by: Circe | Mar 28 2022 17:36 utc | 342
Thanks. I didn’t know much about the band, I just liked their stuff.
As for nuclear fallout being implied, if we’re not careful that’s what will happen. Russia doesn’t want that, but it could happen anyway. I watched a video with Dr. Peter Pry, a supposed expert in nuclear war and EMPs. He was arguing that Russia has built up a first-strike capability and that the US should spend more trillions on a new arms race. Typical shill for the military-industrial complex. But I think that’s what we’re going to end up with, a new arms race. At least, as long as the West has any money to spend on it. And that might be a long time, since they can raise taxes from the gullible US electorate.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 28 2022 21:56 utc | 410

Posted by: Useless meat beater | Mar 28 2022 20:24 utc | 400
That’s a good summary of the western narrative. The next couple weeks should be interesting. If the eastern Ukrainian army collapses, and gas is cut off to Europe, it’s going to get more difficult to sell Russian despertion.

Posted by: JMW | Mar 28 2022 22:00 utc | 412

@ c1ue 401
We don’t have the contract language, but German Economy Minister Robert Habeck called Putin’s demand a breach of contract and other buyers of Russian gas echoed the point. The G7 has rejected Russia’s demand to pay for gas in rubles.
This breach of contract will cause, from Putin’s words “not a charity,” will cause Russia to terminate the contract(s). The effect of the termination of a contract is to discharge the parties from their unperformed obligations under the contract. Russia gas would no longer be sent to northern Europe.
“A complete shutdown of Nord Stream 1 (NS1), Yamal-Europe and the Ukraine routes has devastating consequences for the European gas market, with knock-on effects around the world,” according to a recent Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) report. OIES said Friday that if flows were cut on those systems, Europe’s ability to refill its depleted storage capacity would be “severely compromised.”
Then the damaged parties are entitled to pursue claims for damages provided by any termination provisions that may be contained within the contract. . .Meanwhile, no gas from Russia.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 28 2022 22:28 utc | 414

388 Cortes – “Both parties in the gas contracts may be able to plead frustration of contract due to supervening illegality”. EU in its characteristically self-serving, smug, and superior way avoided that scenario by carving out gas payments to Russia from the sanctions. Hence Russia can be paid in Euros and Dollars, it’s just they can’t use them once they are paid. Hence “frustration of purpose”.
“said unfriendly countries whose purchasers are bound not to pay in roubles” – precisely, they can shut down their industry and freeze instead. Decisions, decisions.

Posted by: CalDre | Mar 28 2022 22:53 utc | 416

The G7 has rejected Russia’s demand to pay for gas in rubles.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 28 2022 22:28 utc | 418
This is very interesting from a democratic point of view.
Same for the “sanctions”.
But what about Constitutions? Quite usually the european constitutions have something like this:
Property being an inviolable and sacred right, no one can be deprived of it, except when public necessity, legally established, obviously requires it, and under the condition of a fair and prior indemnity.
So, what about the money owned by Russia and Russians in foreign banks? How do you calculate an indemnity when one country or people are deprived of their money.
So, those “sanctions” are imho unconstitutional, and if the constitution is violated, there is no constitution anymore, but the rise of arbitrary and fascism.

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 28 2022 23:02 utc | 418

418 – Don Bacon – “the damaged parties are entitled to pursue claims for damages provided by any termination provisions that may be contained within the contract. . .Meanwhile, no gas from Russia”
They won’t win anything in the courts. First, there was a clear “frustration of purpose” brought about by the EU’s unlawful and malicious sanctions. Second, Russia is changing the law, and Gazprom, not being the government, is not responsible for that – but it is obligated to comply with the law, just like all the EU and US corporations can’t be sued by Russia for endless contract breaches as they will shriek “but the law forced us to”.
Third, even if they win (which they probably will in the Empire’s corrupt kangaroo courts), how will they seize any assets? The Empire has already seized everything of Russia’s, which Russia will use to cancel out its external debts. So clean slate. Russia is not so stupid as to expose any further assets to the Empire, so just try to collect on your unlawful “kangaroo court” verdicts.

Posted by: CalDre | Mar 28 2022 23:10 utc | 420

German daily DIE WELT once more tries to convince the audience who’s winning, this time by a fan of Anne Applebaum, Hannes Stein:

Ukrainians win this war
One thought should encourage us: We are stronger than they are. An economy based on making inventions and creating new value performs better than an economy based on theft and corruption. A polity in which there are free elections, independent courts, and brash journalists works better than a state in which judges let the big guys go and ballots aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.
This war is horrific, but the Ukrainians are winning it. Again, slowly and for the record: Ukrainians are winning this war. There is an old Chinese proverb that says, “If you sit by the river long enough, eventually the corpse of your enemy will float by.” We need patience and strong nerves. There is no shortcut.

This really reminds me of what Gonzalo Lira said about women in his Victoria Nuland episode. You don’t love me! I don’t love you. RUSSIA is amassing troops! Ukraine is amassing troops.
I won’t link to this NATO rag. It should just serve as documentation.

Posted by: Nervous German | Mar 28 2022 23:22 utc | 422

Posted by: CalDre | Mar 28 2022 23:15 utc | 426
Agreed. Although the constitutions I read make no mention about the quality of the owners.
If I understood right Switzerland also took Russian citizens assets.

Posted by: Olivier | Mar 28 2022 23:38 utc | 424

The europers still have a couple days to buckle.
President Putin says ‘unfriendly countries’ must switch to its currency by March 31

Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 28 2022 23:43 utc | 426

@Olivier #405
The US/EU governments and MSM will certainly try to blame the high energy and food prices on Russia; that’s a major reason why Russia isn’t outright cutting off anything.
I can’t speak for Europe, but in the US – the Republican party (the present opposition) is very much not going to let Biden and the Democratic party get away with this messaging, so it won’t work in the US.
Will opposition parties in Germany and other EU members do the same?

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2022 0:26 utc | 428

@Don Bacon #408
Habeck is a Philology and Philosophy major; the trade ministry is not either a German or EU law directorate.
Not at all clear to me that Habeck’s yapping matters in the least.
German companies are not disinterested in the affair either – and more importantly, Gazprom will absolutely brandish the same rationale for following Russian law and EU companies have acted to follow EU sanctions on Russia. So good fucking luck.
I certainly agree that failure to pay will result in termination of energy deliveries – the resolution in the various EU and Russian court systems will not matter in the short term.
But I think it won’t come to that. Whatever the EU/Germans say, they absolutely cannot do without Russian energy – be it natural gas, oil or coal.
Look at the numbers Shellenberger put up as to how much the EU consumes more than it produces:

Putin knows that Europe produces 3.6 million barrels of oil a day but uses 15 million barrels of oil a day. Putin knows that Europe produces 230 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year but uses 560 billion cubic meters. He knows that Europe uses 950 million tons of coal a year but produces half that.
The former KGB agent knows Russia produces 11 million barrels of oil per day but only uses 3.4 million. He knows Russia now produces over 700 billion cubic meters of gas a year but only uses around 400 billion. Russia mines 800 million tons of coal each year but uses 300.
That’s how Russia ends up supplying about 20 percent of Europe’s oil, 40 percent of its gas, and 20 percent of its coal.

Given that the US and Qatar’s total LNG capacity per quarter is something like 15 bcm = 60 bcm per year – you can see how utterly fucked the EU is without Russian energy.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2022 0:33 utc | 430

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 28 2022 19:08 utc | 372
—
Thanks for the link to Alastair Crooke’s excellent article on SCF
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/03/28/geo-politics-is-metamorphosing-at-every-moment/
The schadenfreude is quite delicious, with a delightfully savory flavor similar to what Scott Ritter served up a few days ago in a GrayZone interview with Max Blumenthal and Aaron Mate.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LAhPNBUgg
I loved Crooke’s artful presentation, including: “when these latter [non-compliant] states hear phrases such as the ‘Ukrainians, through their heroism, have won the right to enter our “club of values”’, they scent a whiff of debilitated ‘white’ Europe clutching at the life-rafts.”
It’s encouraging to see there are still some realists at the Pentagram, who are changing the narrative and trumping the neocons at State for now (though of course their sober assessment on Reuters alone will never appear in the rest of regime media). Perhaps Russia’s Kinzhal demonstration last week near Poland had its intended effect.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Mar 29 2022 0:47 utc | 432

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 28 2022 19:08 utc | 372
Thank you, karlof1 — that was entertaining, Crooke at his best. I can remember back when Obama was just elected (by me among many) that I dearly hoped he was a master at multidimensional chess, as had been I still believe, President Kennedy in my youth.
Now I realize he was a master indeed, a master of one-dimensional chess, his own.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 29 2022 1:20 utc | 434

I see some idiot crackers on here suggesting maybe the Latins are lazy; well jackwad; I’ve played rugby for 12 years, and done landscaping for 35 years; I’ve tried to hire Aussies, Kiwis, English; they’re pretty useless as to work ethic; but I hear them bitch; same with the white folk I know, but Latins will work harder in one day than you may in your whole life. Fucking lazy snobs sitting on your ass claiming others don’t work. Fuck YOU! I’d say it to your face, and kick your ass to boot; lazy entitled racist fuckwits. You morons come on here, bitch about empire but never reflect on how it’s powered by the “lazy folk” you disdain; FUCK YOU! Any of you that may have served in the military never faced lack of equipment and resources, but you sure got your asses whipped; dumb shit, delusional fucks

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 29 2022 1:46 utc | 436

James, one thing that Libya made clear was that the State Dept is overrun by the “Agency.” And, all this activity is CIA based, and thus Nuland=CIA; now the CIA has an anglo-saxon core that will look at her and the neo-cons askance. Again, we forget that in Covert ops there are by nature many different factions, and odd bed-fellows are the order of the day. Command and control isn’t 100%, and not all activities are “ordered” in the way military actions are. Again, CIA aligned assets may have their own agendas, so, it’s hard to know, and of course “plausible deniability” is always key.

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 29 2022 2:50 utc | 438

@ ScottinDallas | Mar 29 2022 2:50 utc | 443
thanks.. yes, i kind of figured that.. so the cia is just a quick reference point, but it is more complicated then that with different agendas vying for control or priority..

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2022 4:03 utc | 440

https://geopolitics.co/2022/03/28/uk-spook-set-to-repeat-chemical-false-flag-ops-vs-syria-in-ukraine/

Posted by: G Boths | Mar 29 2022 8:01 utc | 442

As I’ve not seen anything mentioned here, I thought I’d share a theory that I saw elsewhere with the bar concerning the start of the war.
Nobody worth listening to saw this coming, including our gracious host. The MSM was singing for several weeks that it was coming on X day however, claiming the plans were leaked.
On the 12th February, hundreds of NATO advisors and others left Ukraine and rather swiftly too. What’s the chances the Russians picked up the hot phone and advised the west that military action was coming?

Posted by: Some Random Passerby | Mar 29 2022 9:59 utc | 444

Posted by: Mr Green Jeans | Mar 29 2022 9:40 utc | 197
yeah just ignore Vietnam and Cuba and the support of Joe McCarthy and the lies about US nuclear inferiority,so you can prop up the myth of JFK the peacemaker. the fact is he almost brought the world to another world war over mindless political posturing. something his ideological descendants in the democratic party managed to avoid doing, even though they supported every empire expansion enthusiastically, along with the republicans. You like Biden, too? He’s following the same playbook.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Mar 29 2022 10:08 utc | 446

“The Cuban Missile Crisis is one of the most studied moments of the Cold War. It is a story every eighth-grade American child is taught and is paraded about as a victory for the United States. In most retellings, the US is seen as a victim in an act of unprovoked aggression by the Soviets. After some show of US Naval force, this narrative ends with the Soviets running away with their missiles. What is often forgotten is the fact that the Soviets were not acting unprovoked. In 1961, after a failed Bay of Pigs invasion, the United States moved American Jupiter ballistic missiles into Italy and Turkey. This put American missiles within range of Moscow. In response, the Soviets sent nuclear warheads to Cuba. For the first time in the Cold War, both the US and the USSR had a real threat posed against their mainland.”
same playbook, 60 years later. the coup in 2014 was more successful than the invasion in 1961. install wmds aimed at Russia, then pretend Russia is the aggressor. Kennedy being assassinated was the best thing for his myth; second term Kennedy was going to be worse than second term Obama. at least Obama learned from Kennedy’s blunders, and realized Ukraine wasn’t worth fighting world war 3, something Biden forgot, if he ever knew it in the first place.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Mar 29 2022 10:19 utc | 448

what y’all miss about the Russian contracts is that the contract price is no doubtedly far lower than the present spot price. All the debate about Rubles, Euros, Gold, barter all that will be resolved to Putin/Russia’s satisfaction lest they have the opportunity to pay much higher prices.

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 29 2022 11:08 utc | 450

John Kennard, no, you’re just an idiot bigot and easily propagandized. W Bush, Obama, Trump and now Biden have cracked down on the Southern border; you’re as delusional about that as most are about this war. Idiots who support the “wall” are delusional, a Wall is the most expensive, least effective way to control the border. The destruction to property values, imagine you’re a rancher in the desert and wall suddenly separates you from the main water source of the region, what, pray tell do you suppose that does to property values? What the fuck do you know about Eminent domain? What do you know about the actual border check being 60 miles up road? No, you’ve allowed yourself to be fooled and deceived cause you’re racist pieces of shit; neo-Nazis of your own stripe. We’ve been deporting and deporting, the economy has driven off many more. You DON’T know the history that after every immigration crackdown we’ve had to create guest worker programs to off-set the loss of workers. Robert Lindsey and John Kennard you are both morons, terribly informed and bigots. There IS no delineation of race; it’s an utterly meaningless pursuit, the genetic weapon can’t be crafted; but you Nazis keep trying. FUCK YOU HYPOCRITICAL DIPSHITS!

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 29 2022 11:25 utc | 452

I don’t think it’s fair to say b and others misread the situation. We figured Ukraine/NATO would concede; and not allow the destruction of the country. It was a game of bluff, and we knew Putin had the better hand; and figured the Ukra/NATO would fold. But they went all in instead. That isn’t really a misreading on our part but by EU/Ukra/US/NATO. And, we’re feeling pretty good that NATO going “all in” with a hand with a 9 high card, and betting their entire economy was a foolish move we couldn’t imagine.

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 29 2022 11:47 utc | 454

Just one more thing regarding JKF and CIA run by Allen Dulles.
Allen Dulles and his brother John Foster, played leading roles in most of the high level manipulations of US foreign policy. Their careers in this began well before WW I, as they had “the right connections” in the power structure running the show in the US.
A book that shines a bright light of how this looked is this one,

The Incubus of Intervention: Conflicting Indonesia Strategies of John F. Kennedy and Allen Dulles Paperback – January 1, 2015

Good luck trying to get a copy. I strongly doubt you can.
Another book worth reading is this one,

Currency Wars I: Currency Warfare
by Song Hongbing

Posted by: Tom_12 | Mar 29 2022 12:28 utc | 456

This ambivalence from Russia and minimalism aimed in Ukraine are punishing my nerves as well.

Posted by: augusto | Mar 29 2022 14:13 utc | 458

“son of privilege”
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 29 2022 13:57 utc | 462
Well my friend, ” Ты неправ ”
JFK WAS VERY DIFFERENT.
He went and served in WW II not behind the desk but right in the middle of the places where bullets fly. THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
Have a read,
https://www.orwelltoday.com/jfkpt109evanscoastwatcherrescue.shtml
He could have been a coke-head Hunter Biden and said, “#uck him. I need to take care of myself.”.
But he didn’t.
He Did The Right Thing.
He save that “none privileged” sailor while risking his own life.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Mar 29 2022 18:16 utc | 460

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 28 2022 15:53 utc | 294
(I apologize in advance for what became a very long comment.)
For the vast amounts of rubles needed to pay for European gas imports, there is no counterparty to get them from except from the Central Bank of Russia, which the EU, UK, US etc. have put under sanctions. Both private and state-owned enterprises in the West who wish to buy gas from Russia will be bound by this restriction. This is the first way in which this measure actually does undermine Western sanctions, just as they are saying. (Only the West’s psychopaths would expect someone to respect arbitrary, punitive measures they introduced to destroy that person, however.)
The CBR, and no else, is of course able to print new rubles at will, and it will presumably only create rubles to buy goods that Russia truly needs from European suppliers, like critical medications, the aircraft spare parts that the EU and US said they will block the exports of, other machinery spare parts, and so on. If they have nothing else to offer, they can always sell gold to the CBR. These will be the rubles which European exporters will then sell to European gas importers, to in turn transfer to Gazprom for the gas.
The point here is that it turns the sanctions on their head. Instead of the EU being able to restrict what Russia is able to buy for the dollars and euros it receives for the gas and oil (and by freezing Russia’s existing reserves and sanctions its banks they have decided that it should be nothing), by demanding payment in rubles, which Russia by itself of course doesn’t need, Russia will get to decide what the Europeans must put up in exchange to get the gas. And this here is the second and critical way in which the Russian move dismantles the Western sanctions.
Some, even very knowledgable personalities in financial circles, have suggested that these ruble payments could or will work by European companies opening bank accounts in Russian banks and selling euros to those banks in exchange for rubles. That would just be another way to introduce dollar or euro IOUs into the Russian financial system, which Russian entites are prohibited from spending on anything they need. And that is precisely what Putin finally has denounced as “pointless”.
Gold will inevitably become a large part of trade settlement between Russia and the EU (and the rest of the West), since there is only so much that Russia will need (or even want to import) from the EU henceforth. And besides, massive current account surpluses of Russia in their balance of payments with Europe are nothing new. Ironically, one mechanism for this is that European goods through their own sabotating of their reliable and cheap energy supply from Russia will become much less competitive and hence less attractive to Russia.
As I’ve, said before, now is the time for the Anglo-Saxon vassals (sorry, I mean their cherished transatlantic partners) to start calling their masters in London and New York for the the monetary gold they were helpfully holding on to for them against the evil Nazis (and then the evil Soviets). “CALL NOW, while supplies last! (Most of the gold we were keeping safe for you has already been sold to others)”
It is by the way astounding to watch the Eurocrats’ rage and indignance over this very natural move from Russia.* What they are actually saying is of course that if Russia won’t let us strangle it, then that is a flagrant violation against the rules-based order (and they’re actually not wrong, but that is why the whole world is moving as quickly as it can to abandon the psychopathic and unhinged West and its “rules”).
The vile, schreeching, bafflingly unintelligent harpy Ursula von der Leyen, for example, came out and referred to Russia’s demands as “extortion”. In the warped universe in which she lives, it is extortion when the country you are attempting to strangle to death, and over the strangling of whom you are even constantly bragging, won’t play along. These people are completely detached from reality, arrogant with no rival in history and the absolute scum of humanity.
*The Americans are of course just laughing in the distance over the chaos they have created and the disastrous situation they have put the Europeans into. I can almost sympathize with them, because in a way they have just given the Europeans what they they deserve.

Posted by: Unnamed | Mar 29 2022 23:56 utc | 462