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The Sanction Backlash Will Push The ‘West’ To Accept Russia’s Demands
For years the U.S. committed policies that have left a lot of countries grumbling. Now, as the U.S. needs support to milden the consequences of 'punishing' Russia, those policies come back to bite. So will the secondary effects of sanctions the 'west' has imposed on Russia.
Today one report calls news of US controlled bio-weapon laboratories in Ukraine a 'debunked conspiracy' while other news says that Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland tells Senators that she is very concerned that 'research materials' from these laboratories could fall into Russian hands. If the 'research material' is not weapon grade why is she concerned about it?
That does not fit well with the ongoing anti-Russian propaganda campaign.
Nor do these maps.
The first shows the countries which banned Russian airplanes from their airspace. Russia in turn denied its airspace to operators from those countries. It will cost quite a bit for U.S. and EU airlines as their flight times and cost to and from Asia, which typically fly through Russian airspace, will now increase. Carriers from Asian countries will now easily out-compete U.S. and European airlines on these routes.
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The second map shows those countries which enacted sanctions against Russia. The secondary effects of sanctions are likely to hurt these countries as much as they hurt Russia. The absence of African, Asian, Middle Eastern, Central and South American countries is quite telling.
It does not look like 'the world' or the 'international community' is backing the 'west'.
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The U.S. also sanctioned all imports of oil products from Russia. President Biden has blamed Russia for the price increase that will inevitably follow. I don't believe that mid-term voters will accept that reasoning. European countries can not follow that step as their economies depend of imports of oil and gas from Russia and will continue to do so for years to come.
In a move that must have been quite humiliating for the White House the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE declined to take calls from the U.S. president. They want the U.S. to designate the Houthi movement in Yemen, which they have been unsuccessful to suppress, a terrorist group:
One hopes that the Biden administration does not fall for these disgusting bribery schemes but he has backed himself into a corner, cutting off Russian oil to punish Putin for a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with no alternative but to horsetrade with autocrats over the fate of Yemenis a half a world away. If this is geopolitics, heaven forgive us.
I don't think that the above is the only request the Saudis and UAE leaders will have. They are now in a situation in which they can demand ever more.
Likewise humiliating is the administration's opening of talks with Venezuela which it had sanctioned all around in its attempt to regime change the country. Caracas has released two U.S. nationals from prison. It is willing to talk. But before providing oil to the U.S. market it will demand the lifting of all sanctions and the return of all its assets the U.S. and UK have confiscated. Biden will have difficulties to find a Congress majority in support of such steps.
The return of the nuclear deal with Iran, which would enable more oil output, hangs in balance as Russia demands sanction exemptions for its trade with Iran.
The U.S. had attempted to press Poland to deliver its old Mig-29 fighter jets to the Ukraine. In Russia's eyes that would have been a direct Polish aggression against it. Warsaw found a smart way to avoid that. It offered to deliver the jets to a U.S. airbase in Germany. The tar baby would thereby stick to the U.S. itself. The Pentagon declined to accept that. The jet transfer is now most likely dead.
The U.S. and Europe are only starting to feel the secondary consequences of the all out economic war they hastily initiated against Russia. The war will cause recessions not only in Russia but also all over the 'west'. This while Russia has yet to announce its counter sanctions. There are many steps Russia could take to hurt the 'west' by withholding this or that resource. It is likely to start slowly to then increase the pressure step by step.
It seems that there was given no thought at all about the secondary effects the 'western' sanctions would have.
Meanwhile the Russian intervention in the Ukraine continues at a moderate pace. Russia is not in a hurry as Zelensky is making noise about 'compromises':
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky won't accept Russia's demands for ending the war unconditionally, but he's open to trying to find a compromise that could include not pursuing NATO membership.
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Along with "cooling down" to the idea of joining NATO, Zelensky told ABC News that there's room for negotiating on the occupied territories and unrecognized republics.
Russia responded in kind:
Moscow is not aiming to overthrow the current leadership in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, amid the ongoing military campaign in the neighboring state.
“Its objectives don’t include occupation of Ukraine, destruction of its statehood, or the toppling of the current government. It’s not directed against the civilian population,” Zakharova told reporters at a regular press conference on Wednesday.
The spokeswoman reiterated that Moscow wants to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, which broke away from Ukraine shortly after the 2014 coup in Kiev. She added that Russia seeks the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine.
It will be interesting to see if the U.S. allows Zelensky to go further down that path. The secondary effects the sanctions will have for the 'west' are likely to eventually lead to that.
From MoD Russia on Telegram:
Today, at exactly 10 o’clock, in accordance with the agreements reached on ten humanitarian corridors initiated by the Russian Federation and three additionally at the request of the Ukrainian side, the Russian Armed Forces introduced cease-fire, which is strictly observed to date.
We are closely monitoring the actions of the Ukrainian side by means of objective control, both on the ground and from the air, including unmanned aerial vehicles, but no practical measures have been taken to prepare humanitarian columns at the moment, no one has arrived to open humanitarian corridors, the formation of organized humanitarian columns has also not been recorded. Civilians and foreign citizens were not notified in any of the settlements.
Since 10 a.m., on the contrary, intensive regrouping of AFU units and nationalist battalions, the movement of weapons and military equipment, as well as the buildup of forces and means has been noted in all directions.
In addition, since 9:57, continuous artillery and mortar fire, including on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the suburbs of Kiev, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Mariupol and in a number of other settlements, as well as on humanitarian corridors initiated by the Ukrainian side, has practically not stopped. On the Volnovakha, Zaporozhye and Izyum directions, intense fire was conducted from the nationalist battalions using mortars.
A similar situation occurred yesterday during the declared cease-fire and withdrawal of foreign citizens and a small number of civilians from Sumy. We have observed and recorded how grossly, cynically and harshly the Ukrainian side violates the ceasefire regime, actively moving weapons and military equipment, replenishing ammunition stocks and their delivery to positions, as well as the movement of reserves. But solely for humanitarian purposes, we did not disrupt this humanitarian operation, given that the humanitarian column has already been formed and started moving. We have continuously warned the Ukrainian side about preventing provocations by all possible means. With effort, but by maintaining all the necessary security measures, we were able to save the lives of civilians and foreign citizens.
Unfortunately, today, a detailed and well-thought-out operation to open humanitarian corridors and evacuate civilians and foreign citizens in conditions of a humanitarian catastrophe has not brought the expected results, due to the fault of the Kiev authorities.
At the same time, the humanitarian situation throughout Ukraine continues to deteriorate rapidly. In Mariupol, the conditions of citizens, as a result of the monstrous actions of the nationalists and the city administration, has reached catastrophic proportions.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 10 2022 3:06 utc | 229
MoD Russia on Telegram:
In the same city [Mariupol], on Kuprina street, nationalists blew up a power line and several tanks with fuel, without evacuating nearby residential buildings.
In Sumy, the nationalists of territorial defence, who allegedly assumed obligations to ensure law and order, do not prevent a surge in looting, moreover, they have formed a criminal community.
The children’s hospital building is used by the Sumy territorial defence unit as a stronghold.
There are two territorial defence checkpoints on the Sumy-Grayvoron highway, the personnel of which are in civilian clothing, armed with small arms and Molotov cocktails with the task of preventing the exit of refugees.
In Kharkiv, nationalists, under threat of using weapons, force local residents to set up barricades of car tires at every intersection in order to prevent civilians from reaching humanitarian corridors.
Ordinary Ukrainians come to understand that they mean nothing to the current regime. Residents of cities and towns have lost their already dubious faith in the current government, which prefers not to notice human suffering.
Moreover, the Kiev regime has sanctioned nationalists to use weapons against those who attempt to evacuate to the Russian Federation, threatening to kill relatives remaining on Ukrainian territory. There are threats of physical violence from radicals against those who are trying to receive humanitarian aid.
The civilized world, the UN, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross, as well as other international organizations in the catastrophic situation that has developed for Ukraine have no moral right to stand aside, ordinary Ukrainians and foreign citizens should not “one on one” fight Nazism that has overwhelmed the Kiev authorities.
We appeal to reputable international organizations, to the International Committee of the Red Cross with a request to take urgent measures to encourage the Kiev authorities to carry out the entire complex of measures to prepare for the evacuation and the formation of humanitarian convoys. And the most important thing is that notification of the gathering places and the opening of humanitarian corridors should be carried out through all communication channels, as well as using a centralized information and notification system for the population. We very much hope for your effective monitoring mechanism, including on the ground, how the mayors of Ukrainian cities are in practice preparing for humanitarian operations, as the lies and deception of the Kiev authorities are becoming unbearable.
We have sent an official appeal to the International Committee of the Red Cross on this issue. The militants of the nationalist battalions continue to use prohibited methods of warfare, namely, violence to life and physical integrity, murder, torture of civilians. At present, the radicals continue to hold more than four and a half million civilians hostage as “human shields,” as well as 1,197 foreigners who have already expressed a desire to evacuate to places of safety from the horrors and arbitrariness of the neo-Nazis.
At the same time, without the participation of the Ukrainian side, 5,460 people, including 1,125 children, were evacuated from dangerous zones in various regions of Ukraine, as well as the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics during the day. In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, there have been more than 179 thousand people, including 45,436 children evacuated. 20,961 vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, including 867 vehicles per day.
Yesterday, as a result of the humanitarian operation carried out by the Russian Federation, 247 foreign citizens were evacuated from dangerous areas of the Kherson region to Novorossiysk, including 166 from Turkey, 41 from Ukraine, 11 from Egypt, 8 from Italy, 7 from Azerbaijan, 6 from Pakistan, 5 from India, one each from Sweden, Morocco and Brazil.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 10 2022 3:10 utc | 231
to SomeKraut | Mar 9 2022 21:49 utc | 113 Mar 9 2022 21:55 utc | 117:
“Die Anstalt” had been a great show. With Georg Schramm and Urban Priol, it was called “Neues aus der Anstalt”. The team changed in 2014, they did quite a good job at first. But since ~2015, they are making propaganda just like any other mainstream media outlet in Germany does. But you probably know all that already.
You guessed right: I know about the predecessor show with the different hosts and I enjoy occasionally re-watching them from time to time. Neues aus der Anstalt had a better selection of guests and it was more adult (I do remember Uthoff and von Wagner saying that they deliberately try to tap into a younger audience though, which explains some differences in style). A lot of the jokes still hold up, in no small part because plenty of the people they made fun of 15 years ago are still around doing mischief.
Malmsheimer auch? I’m gonna be sick if I watch this. Maybe we should do what Wiglaf Droste did.
Malmsheimer’s poem is still a high point of the show compared to most of the other contributions. I was just surprised to see him there (maybe I don’t know that side of him yet, but I felt he rarely got political). I wonder whether they asked Priol or Schramm to contribute to this episode.
to zet | Mar 10 2022 1:44 utc | 198:
Thank you so much for the detailed write-up of yesterdays “Die Anstalt” show – I loved this show until yesterdays episode. I had to turn it off after 15 minutes, it was just not bearable.
It has been an excellent format all those years, analysing and presenting global & local events in a true and very understandable fashion. Shame that they killed their reputation with just one episode full of flat & unreflected jokes.
The Ukraine episode was in my opinion a new low for the show. But I’ll still keep watching it (at least for some time more), since they did produce some really bad episodes in the past but usually followed up with better ones (for example the 29th Sep 2020 ep. about Julian Assange, but it’s not available in full on YouTube).
to TomD | Mar 10 2022 6:45 utc | 273:
About “Die Anstalt”
You have to take into account that there were no satirical shows on stage in Germany the last two years. Having a contract with TV is an economical life saver these days. And I know that both of them have little kids to feed. I was already quite surprised on their shows on Syria, how they managed to get that aired. Actually, most shows were not satirical, but deeply educational.
Having now gone the opposite way, going fully aligned, this is satire. Citing only german BS media is a clear indication for this. Max Uthoff and Claus von Wagner are everything but stupid.
Let’s hope for better days.
They sure have kids to feed and bills to pay. Their show’s been running for just above 8 years and 66 episodes now (longer than their predecessors 😀 ) so I don’t think they’ll be kicked off air on a whim (but hey, anything’s possible these days I guess). Still, the latest episode lacks absolutely all of the grit I expected from them and just leaves me feeling very very stupid after watching. I cannot wrap my head around how all the people involved in writing and research looked at the script and said “yeah, that’s good, that’ll show ’em!”. I really don’t see the point of this episode except for petty virtue signaling. There are plenty of things to talk about and criticise, but these people in particular chose this?
If they hastily cobbled together this episode to be able to talk about a current event: Why? Nobody expects them to provide bleeding-edge coverage of stuff happening right now. They air one episode per month and probably need these 4 weeks in full (if not more) to prepare everything and finish the script. At the beginning of the episode they even talk about having two scripts they destroyed in favor of what we got now. What the fuck?
And don’t put too much thought into citing only german BS media; they have always relied mostly on german sources, but usually manage to incorporate enough separate points of view (and the occasional English source) to seperate the wheat from the chaff. This time, it seems, they failed miserably or deliberately to produce a hit piece on Putin – they have never been this Putin-fixated in the past.
Posted by: pachinko | Mar 10 2022 8:53 utc | 299
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