Lavrov's History Lesson - Germany's Downfall - Russian Forces Develop Routine
Th Saker has reproduced the transcript of a talk Russia's Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov has given three days ago. It is quite long with a Q&A at the end but it is a very good history lesson on how we got to the point that Russia felt it had to intervene in the Ukraine.
Here are just a few graphs of it. I recommend to read all of it:
This meeting takes place against the backdrop of events now occurring in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken at length about the origins of this crisis. I would like to briefly reiterate: this is not about Ukraine. This is the end-result of a policy that the West has carried out since the early 1990s. It was clear back then that Russia was not going to be docile and that it was going to have a say in international matters. This is not because Russia wants to be a bully. Russia has its history, its tradition, its own understanding of the history of its peoples and a vision on how it can ensure its security and interests in this world.
This became clear in the late 1990s-early 2000s. The West has repeatedly attempted to stall the independent and autonomous development of Russia. This is rather unfortunate. From the start of President Vladimir Putin’s “rule” in the early 2000s, we were open to the idea of working with the West in various ways, even in a form similar to that of an alliance, as the President has said. Sadly, we were unable to do this. We repeatedly suggested that we should conclude treaties and base our security on equal rights, rejecting the idea of strengthening one’s security at the expense of another.
Neither were we able to promote economic cooperation. The European Union, which back then showed some signs of independent decision-making, has now devolved toward being completely dependent on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the US. The story of Nord Stream 2 was the highlight of this change. Even Germany, which defended its interests in the project to the very end, was persuaded that the “project was not in its interests.” Germany and its people were told what their interests were by people on the other side of the Atlantic. Many other international areas were blocked despite our commitment to close cooperation on an equal basis.
Germany's traitorous role towards Russia, especially under chancellor Angela Merkel, is laid out throughout the piece. The current chancellor Olaf Scholz, never a smart man, capitulated to U.S. demands to sanction Russia and thereby committed Germany to economic suicide.
Source - bigger
That spells death for Germany's machine industry. It is sad to see my country come down like this.
Hey Olaf, when the U.S. illegally invaded Iraq for absolutely no good reason how many sanctions did Germany apply to it?
Russia has at least cited sound and understandable, if not fully legal, reasons for its current acts. It was by the way you, Olaf, and your predecessor who have let it come to this. Why didn't you write a letter to Putin that declared that Germany will veto NATO membership for the Ukraine. That might have solved the whole problem.
There is some talk that Russia has screwed up its campaign and some even hope that it might be losing the war. That's nuts.
Back when I was a military officer we ran yearly large scale 'free running' maneuvers. Over nearly four weeks my tank company had to switch positions several times a day and march and 'fight' in between. The first week was cumbersome with lots of errors made by everyone. The second week was worse. Everyone was sleep deprived and folks screamed at each other. We had several accidents and twice parts of the company missed turns and got lost at night. During the third week things became gradually better and more routine. The drivers knew where to put their tanks without much command. The camouflaging done by the loaders and gunners was fast. The food that found its way to us was still hot and maintenance was done in no time. In the fourth week it was all pure fun.
The reason behind it was that people needed to learn by doing. Before the maneuvers everyone had been 'fully trained'. But a few days on the training range do not give the experience one needs in the real world. Driving and 'fighting' through real villages and cities, real camouflaging against an 'enemy' airforce, real dueling in the open landscape day after day are different than training range time.
Russia's forces are now in their routine mode. They will now grind down what is left of the Ukrainian forces.
According to the Pentagon the Russian airforce yesterday flew 300 sorties over Ukraine, mostly at night. That are 50% more per day than last week. That means 300 Ukrainian weapon factories, ammunition depots, convoys and fighting position get destroyed every day, day after day. How long will it take until there are no more targets?
Andrew Milburn, a former Marine colonel, is in the Ukraine from where he reports for Task and Purpose:
The Russians are already adapting, and by doing so are narrowing the Ukrainians’ tactical edge. The one-sided culling of Russian armored columns that characterized the opening days of the war, and kept YouTube subscribers around the world happy, are a thing of the past. The Russians now lead their formations with electronic attack, drones, lasers and good-old-fashioned reconnaissance by fire. They are using cruise missiles and saboteur teams to target logistics routes, manufacturing plants, and training bases in western Ukraine. Realizing that the Ukrainians lack thermal sights for their stinger missile launchers, the Russians have switched all air operations to after dark. It may be for this same reason that Russian cruise missile strikes in western and southern Ukraine have also been at nighttime.The Russians have learned to play to their strengths. While Ukrainian soldiers mock their Russian counterparts, they are deeply respectful of Russian artillery, an asset that the Russians are using more frequently to compensate for their infantry’s deficiencies. Several snipers I spoke with recently agreed that the Russians’ indirect fire capability was the most concerning — a result of sheer reckless mass rather than technical skill. They told some hair-raising stories to illustrate their point, and one amusing one: Ukrainian soldiers defending Kyiv commute to the battle in their own vehicles. After a recent three-day insertion, the sniper teams returned to their extraction site to find their cars all flattened by Russian artillery – a contingency apparently not covered by their insurance plans.
Overconfidence may obscure for the Ukrainians one salient fact about this conflict: Time is not on their side.
Posted by b on March 22, 2022 at 17:55 UTC | Permalink
next page »I always like seeong what Lavrov has to say. He is eminently competent and usually comes out with it with no bullshit.
That being said, I find his answer to the last question wholly inadequate and somewhat doshonest. Anyone that has followed events in Ukraine since Maidan can likely spot it, too.
Here's the Q&A I'm referring to:
Question: Why was the military operation launched now and not eight years ago? At that time, a pro-Russian “anti-Maidan” movement emerged in Odessa and Kharkov, which installed the Russian flag on top of the Kharkov regional administration without firing a shot. The city supported Russia. Now these people are hiding from shelling.
Sergey Lavrov: A lot of factors influence developments at each specific historical moment. Back then, it was a shock, primarily because the West turned out to be an absolutely unreliable guarantor of the things that we supported. US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the French leaders called Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked him not to interfere with the agreement between Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition. Vladimir Putin said that if the incumbent president was signing something, it was his right, and he had the authority to negotiate with the opposition. But the West dumped us and immediately began to support the new government because they announced an anti-Russian policy line.
People got burned alive in the House of Trade Unions in Odessa; combat aircraft fired at the centre of Lugansk. You must remember the Novorossiya movement better than anyone else. We also had a public movement for support.
We certainly relied too much on what remained of our Western colleagues’ conscience. France initiated the Normandy format; we were asked not to state categorically that we refused to recognise Petr Poroshenko’s election at the end of May 2014. The West assured us they would do everything to normalise the situation, so that Russians could live normally.
We must have trusted them because of some naivety and kindness of heart, which is something Russians are known for.
I have no doubt that lessons will be learned.
Posted by: Woogs | Mar 22 2022 18:09 utc | 2
In the meantime corporate medias are claiming that Russia is losing ground. And will be defeated. Because they do not see carpet bombing. As they use to do: Baghdad, Faludja, Mossoul, Raqqa, where they were showing what kind of cowards they are.
I saw it come: for years it was the fabrication of an enemy, diabolizing the RF president. And now hysterical hate. Racist hate.
Values? Yes, hate "values", racist "values", the true western values for 5 centuries: to cheat, to lie, to steal, to loot and to kill and kill and kill!
Posted by: Olivier | Mar 22 2022 18:20 utc | 3
"Question: Why was the military operation launched now and not eight years ago? "
Because the weapons were not yet ready.
Posted by: Olivier | Mar 22 2022 18:21 utc | 4
Twitter is on a crusade to remove all anti NATO/ anti Ukranazi accounts - including famous ones like ASB Military with thousands of followers - while deliberately promoting Ukraganda, like the latest "all Russian forces in Gostomel and Izyum are surrounded". I do not understand the utility of this technique unless the plan is to claim that the inevitable total Ukranazi collapse and defeat is due to Russia using "chemical warfare" or "biological weapons".
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 22 2022 18:22 utc | 5
" It is said to see my country come down like this."
There's a typo in "said", I think you meant to type "sad".
Posted by: venice12 | Mar 22 2022 18:24 utc | 6
@Olivier 5:
8 years ago neither were the Ukranazis dug in and reinforced.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 22 2022 18:24 utc | 7
Also, 8 years ago (in 2014) Russia was economically dependent on many things. It is then when they started to seriously work on import substitution (eg. it took them 3 years to change from importing wheat to becoming biggest wheat exporter).
So, in 2014 for Russia, taking Ukraine would militarily be far easier, but economically and strategically Russia couldn't defend against sanctions like today.
Not to mention that this now is perfectly organized with its allies around the world. Just remember what happened after 2014 - Syria, Iran, Venezuela (all in problems of their own), China not ready to face west, Saudis and all other oil producers still dancing to US's tune etc.
No, 2014 was different world and if Russia invaded Ukraine then, she would be alone.
Posted by: Abe | Mar 22 2022 18:34 utc | 8
@ 6
It may be that they use such a false flag to explain a Ukrainian loss to the public. But do no discount the possibility that elites in west operate under ideological directives that have no utility in the real world. They ban 'pro-Russian' voices because they truly believe such voices are evil, or simply because ever increasing control is something they believe they need.
Posted by: scarnoc | Mar 22 2022 18:34 utc | 9
I heartily second b's suggestion as I excerpted a small amount and linked to it on the previous thread.
Unfortunately, I must report that the Kremlin's website is being interfered with again and is currently unavailable. All the more reason to copy/paste important docs into a document and save it in that manner instead of just saving the link to favorites.
The UKUSA "Fuck the EU" yakuza crime syndicate are collecting dues for their "protection" racket. EU, bend the knee to your Anglo-American Godfather, kiss his ring, and pay your tribute for "protection", or else. The Godfather is expecting lots of tribute in the form of NATO military spending going to the US military-industrial-complex and US LNG purchases.
Our taxpayer money in Canada, Germany, and all the NATO vassal countries is being lifted and handed over to the US as tribute in the guise of military spending. The lethal "aid" purchased from the US then gets sent to the Ukraine where it can be destroyed, requiring new rounds of tribute to the US. Additional tribute comes in the form of higher prices paid for energy and resources from the US now that Russia has conveniently been pushed out of the market.
Posted by: Canadian Cents | Mar 22 2022 18:37 utc | 11
thanks b... thanks especially for your personal insights here on the time for russian troops to get there bearings on ukraine soil...
i admire lavrov.... the west doesn't have a diplomat of that stature... neither does it have a leader of putins stature... i think that russia is prepared here to become more lean and mean and make things work... in answer to
@ Woogs | Mar 22 2022 18:09 utc | 3
russia wasn't in a position to do in 2014 what they are doing now... it is unfortunate that some folks are unwilling to acknowledge this and would rather hope that lavrov would address this specifically is asking for a much larger conversation that lavrov was prepared to give here.. thanks for your posts..
@ Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 22 2022 18:24 utc | 8
you clearly have not read up on this topic and have a strong opinion on it too! i would prefer your comics... cheers..
Posted by: james | Mar 22 2022 18:37 utc | 12
Come Come now Biswapriya
Everyone knows one of the fundamentals of US democracy is a free voice! You know Democracy for all!(as long as you are a rich white male and not Russian!). Free speech as long as it supports the above rich white people and not any Russians. We started our whole venture in America slaughtering others for Democracy. We were so good as to remove children from their homes to instal them in schools where they were taught our form of Democracy. We even brought whole villages from Africa to share a place in our democracy their place was to labor for us for free. This democracy spreading went around the world! Part of that democracy spreading involves sharing oil with us free of charge! We are the show case of democracy
Posted by: Susan | Mar 22 2022 18:39 utc | 13
About that reporter while interesting and somewhat plausible considering the very thick fog of war I doubt he actually has enough information to base such assessments on even if he is in Ukraine; there can be other reasons such as the officially stated or implied "different stages" of the Russian plan.
The thing about fog of war is that one can fit almost any narrative or opinion into it with relative ease. Some (or many, maybe all) of the things the reporter writes are clearly biased and wishful thinking on behalf of the Kiev regime.
He might also be flat out wrong about Stingers. Wikipedia has a decent enough page on FIM-92 Stinger including different variants. They are all heat-seeking but it seems the reporter is talking about an imaging system for the launcher which might be nice to have but is somewhat redundant: the missiles should work if not just as well then at least adequately without it as long as they're launched in the generally correct direction ie. towards the aircraft. Granted it could take many more of them to do the same job if they have any chance at all of avoiding Russian countermeasures.
The USSR previously and Russia now should have plenty of experience with avoiding Stingers.
I find the claim that Stingers would force Russian aircraft into the night ridiculous. Instead it is far more likely the Russians have found Ukrainian night time abilities to be so much worse than their own that they take the advantage, in other words the complete opposite to what the reporter is writing.
- - -
I'm worse than normal today and might not read any replies (I'll go lie down to rest soon).
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 22 2022 18:39 utc | 14
@Olivier #5: Russia was not ready in multiple ways. It took a big chance with Crimea but it couldn't afford not to.
What really gets me about Lavrov's answer is this part:
"France initiated the Normandy format; we were asked not to state categorically that we refused to recognise Petr Poroshenko’s election at the end of May 2014. The West assured us they would do everything to normalise the situation, so that Russians could live normally.
We must have trusted them because of some naivety and kindness of heart, which is something Russians are known for."
^^^^^^We must have trusted them?? WTF?? By the time of Poroshenko's election, the Trade Union massacre at Odessa had occurred and the 'anti-terrorist operation" had begun in Donbas.
Posted by: Woogs | Mar 22 2022 18:45 utc | 15
I see only honesty in Lavrov's statement. They trusted the "forked-tongue"again,and got burned again. Please remember back in the 1990s, CIA drunk Yeltsin sold out Russia to the parasitical Western olgarchs. Russia had to build back itself to what it is now, and (I believe) that Ukraine is only phase 1.
Phase 2 is as Putin clearly laid out on December 18th:" go back to the 1997 borders, or face something you have never faced in your entire history!". I take that to mean North America, but we will see.
woogs @3--
There's nothing "dishonest" in Lavrov's response. Despite the advance warning provided by the Nuland phone call intercept, Russia was still taken by surprise at the coup, primarily because Russia had placed its trust in the guarantees given by France, Germany and the EU, which were broken the day after when the recognized the Nazi coup as the legitimate government. That Crimea was saved is a genuine miracle.
Thanks b, I needed some cheerful material. Hope everything will end soon.
Posted by: Calgary Guy | Mar 22 2022 18:50 utc | 18
@ Woogs | Mar 22 2022 18:45 utc | 16.. i will admit that doesn't make sense and looks wrong...
Posted by: james | Mar 22 2022 18:52 utc | 19
I see that "Andrew Milburn, a former Marine colonel," is right in there pitching the propaganda narrative.
James@ 20: Yeah, he's usually so much better with his responses. Maybe it's the stress of the last few months. I dunno. Just surprised at that answer of his, given that his domestic audience is generally very well informed abd likely saw through it, too.
Posted by: Woogs | Mar 22 2022 19:00 utc | 21
Sunny Runny Burger @15--
It was interesting listening to Crooke talk about the stinger's capabilities which he well knows as he was intimately involved in getting them into Afghanistan. It takes a very long time for its thermal sensor to lock onto the target, so they were only good in specific situations.
As for Russian air-ops, anyone who followed Russia's action in Syria knows they preferred night attacks because of thermal imagery, just as the USAF does. The former marine is a joke, IMO.
re: death for Germany's machine industry
It's also the death of China's rail BRI to Europe, a thousand trains a month.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:04 utc | 23
speaking of trains -
"As a result of the shelling, the Pavlograd-2 railway station was destroyed, the railway track and rails were destroyed, 15 freight cars derailed. Traffic through the station has been suspended indefinitely." that is the train line between dnipro and the donbass area.... i would like to see a train map of ukraine...
https://www.mapsofworld.com/ukraine/rail-map.html
i can't quite figure out the strategic value of taking it out..
Posted by: james | Mar 22 2022 19:08 utc | 24
Posted by: Susan | Mar 22 2022 18:39 utc |
gives a new meaning to the phrase
"Freedom isn't Free"
Posted by: oldcutlas | Mar 22 2022 19:11 utc | 25
There's a lot of chatter currently in Washington about war crimes. That would be handled by the International Criminal Court. During Bill Clinton’s presidency the ICC treaty was signed and later revoked by George W. Bush, who was afraid of the possibility of American soldiers being targeted by the international community.
Russia, China and Israel are also not members. There have been about 30 cases before the International Criminal Court. All involve individuals from Africa: the Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Libya, Mali or Uganda. (July 2021)
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:14 utc | 26
@ Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:14 utc | 28
bush was afraid that he, cheney, rumsfield, wolfowitz, tony blair and etc - might actually have to face the court... this is the rationale also for obama saying - we have to move on - no accountability.... usa leaders are beyond pathetic..
Posted by: james | Mar 22 2022 19:21 utc | 27
"Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 22 2022 18:24 utc | 8"
The main problem is nato, which now can do nothing militarily when they could 8 years ago.
Posted by: Olivier | Mar 22 2022 19:22 utc | 28
Don Bacon @25: A huge cleavage is developing between the East and West in tandem with the Ukraine ops. The US State Dept. just sanctioned some Chinese officials due to "human rights". China didn't take well to it at all. Meanwhile, India is not going along with the Western sanctions on Russia and got threatened with sanctions earlier but the US has since backed off that threat.
Victoria Nuland is in India today trying again to coerce India into getting on board the sanctions train. I dont't think it will work.
Also, it seems that China and India are making renewed efforts to bury the hatchet regarding tbeir border duspute. It really seems like a great re-alignment happening, especially taking into account all the other countries not taking part in the anti-Russia sanctions.
Russsia essentially said "fuck it" in deciding to launch into Ukraine. If the West keeps it up, China will arrive at the same point.
Interesting times.
Posted by: Woogs | Mar 22 2022 19:23 utc | 29
@Don Bacon #25
Why so?
The US' manufacturing capability has been shrinking for a generation, and we buy more Chinese stuff than ever.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 22 2022 19:26 utc | 30
We can't expect to see any pro-Russia (or -China) articles. If written they wouldn't be published. The definitive (to me) source for examining this matter is "War Made Easy -- How presidents and pundits keep spinning us to death" by Norman Solomon.
...from Solomon's book . .
Dan Rather, an iconic US journalist: "Look I'm an American. I never tried to kid anybody that I'm some internationalist or something. And when my country is at war, I want my country to win, whatever the definition of 'win' might be. Now, I can't and don't argue that that is coverage without prejudice. About that I am prejudiced." So Dan brought us through the criminal war against Vietnam and the Nixon presidency.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:27 utc | 31
I found this look at the situation in Mariupol from DPA (the Singaporean guy) interesting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6godZued55Q
He discusses urban warfare and compares Mariupol to a battle in the Philippines where 1k al-queda fought the Philippine army for more than 5 months. DPR estimate now around a week, so if they can really clear the city in that time perhaps that should be considered quite an achievement. Of course we don't know the situation on the ground for the UAF forces - supplies, ammo, food, water, support from locals, etc. They clearly anticipated a hard fight, and cannot yet be starving or out of ammo or some would have surrendered. When they do run out of food there will be mutiny if commanders try to force troops not to quit I would think.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 22 2022 19:31 utc | 32
TG channel Рыбарь publishes longreads (in tg, yes) about Ukraine biolabs leaked documents. Their conclusions:
1. Most of the documents show nothing damned, but researches that could had been pursued bona fide.
2. Exception would be Congo-Crimea Fever, which research was conducted, by documents, in laboratories not even nearly secure enough for auch a disease (reportedly, Ukraine has zero secure enough labs), and by personnel, on paper, lacking skills.
This however still can be interpreted as corruption, not conspiracy.
3. "Reading between the lines", focusing on omitted details and peculiarities, suggests those documents were just cover up, plausible deniability. A thin veil to mask some real research activity, which is unknown, unless RuMoD would eventually present yet more of documents. This last point, however, is interpretation, not documented fact.
Posted by: Arioch | Mar 22 2022 19:33 utc | 33
The Russian advantage Colonel Milburn describes is based on a military "four times" the size of Ukraine's. Meaning that they can win just from the sheer size of their military. Just like how the US could overrun Iraq just because of the size of its army. But the loss of Ruassian military resources is making this scenario look Phyrric. And not a "total Ukranazi collapse" that (6) insists on desperately.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Mar 22 2022 19:35 utc | 34
@ c1ue 33
Why so? . .the death of China's rail BRI to Europe
War in Ukraine is hamstringing China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ . .here . .also here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:36 utc | 35
Here's the entire question being used against Lavrov:
"Why was the military operation launched now and not eight years ago? At that time, a pro-Russian “anti-Maidan” movement emerged in Odessa and Kharkov, which installed the Russian flag on top of the Kharkov regional administration without firing a shot. The city supported Russia. Now these people are hiding from shelling."
I find it impossible to verify the veracity of the question. I know in Odessa the police didn't do anything to stop the Nazis from their killing and burning. I imagine a similar performance happened in Kharkov. Russia acted to save its strategic asset, Crimea, but clearly wasn't prepared to intervene further. Lavrov's initial sentence is very honest:
"A lot of factors influence developments at each specific historical moment."
I've read both the English and Russian transcripts, and what I see by reading between the lines is commiseration by Lavrov with the questioner, not any attempt to mislead. Lavrov says They took advantage of our nature:
"We must have trusted them because of some naivety and kindness of heart, which is something Russians are known for.
"I have no doubt that lessons will be learned."
And if you've watched Lavrov while speaking his recent denunciations of the West, that Russia will never again put its trust in any part of the West, you'll see the resolve that Russia will not get fooled again as it's now taking everything into its own hands.
IMO, some part of all Russians, especially Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu, and other leaders, was burned and died with those in Odessa and in Donbass. They pled and pled and pled some more with the Western pukes to obey the fucking law put forth in UNSCR 2022--the Minsk Agreements. But inaction and outright refusal followed by the breaking of it all by the fucking West. And now all the rest that was uncovered with the military operation!! I'll bet the fucking national debt that Putin, Lavrov, et al wish they would've done more in 2014 but felt they couldn't. The Syria intervention helped to provide some solace. But it's very clear to Russia now that the Outlaw US Empire is the #1 predator state on the planet and must be neutralized somehow without resorting to nuclear weapons. Yes, that's how fucking serious this is. Lavrov knows that gravity of the situation. It's fucking existential! And it's that fact the West badly wants to cover up. And just as importantly, it's that fact that we must try to expose and broadcast.
[email protected] better question one might ask is why this level of hysteria? Media propaganda? Over Ukraine? Why did it go so over the top from day one? No shortage of hornets nests all over the planet, why has this nest of depravity warranted such western attention? All because western elites hate Russians? I say elites because average John/jane doe get their info directions from mass media, otherwise they'd be hard pressed to find Siberia, never mind Russia, on a map.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 22 2022 19:39 utc | 37
Nato bull run exercise in Poland.
https://avia-pro.net/news/bronetehnika-nato-zamechena-v-3-kilometrah-ot-granicy-s-belorussiey
Posted by: Kim | Mar 22 2022 19:43 utc | 38
It's also the death of China's rail BRI to Europe, a thousand trains a month.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:04 utc | 25
this has been mentioned before: europe is just the last stop on a very long line. look at a map, preferrerably a globe! don’t worry if you don’t get it, bear and dragon going to make it real clear.
Posted by: Rae | Mar 22 2022 19:47 utc | 39
@james #26:
i would like to see a train map of ukraine...
https://www.openrailwaymap.org
Posted by: S | Mar 22 2022 19:50 utc | 40
@ Don Bacon
Remember how Dashing Dan went to Afghanistan to fellate the “Northern Alliance”?
@ sean the leprechaun
Empires, like capitalist economies, must grow or die. Russia is the prize, but now Russia is fighting back. This ain’t existential just for Russia.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 22 2022 19:51 utc | 41
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 22 2022 19:39 utc | 40
Why the Media hysteria ?
How dare Russia,challenge US/Nato interests.
Posted by: Kim | Mar 22 2022 19:52 utc | 42
"This is not because Russia wants to be a bully. Russia has its history, its tradition, its own understanding of the history of its peoples and a vision on how it can ensure its security and interests in this world."
B
You have made the most important observation on this manufactured crisis.
I believe a Russian foreign minister stated that Russian was going to deprive the US of an enemy (Russia) during the mid nineties post the Soviet union collapse.
The problem for everyone involved is the US are bad winner's.
And here we are!
No one listened.
Posted by: Jpc | Mar 22 2022 20:02 utc | 43
8 years ago neither were the Ukranazis dug in and reinforced.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 22 2022 18:24 utc | 8
But NATO was and EU economic killers already were.
Conspirologists say Putin was given a secret ultimatum on V-Day 2014. Which made him denounce parliament's authorisation to use army abroad (quite an U-turn ans public humiliation), and to double down on strategic submarines building/renovation. Hastily built over-horizon radar to replace lost ex-USSR installation came online in 2019, as another example.
We can see the West rushing to WW3 today, guess we today perhaps should have no doubt they would dp the same in 2014, and Russia was much less ready to WW3 then. Many military technologies, like aircraft/helicopter/navy turbine engines were produced in Ukraine, meaning in WW3 Russia would have no reliable spare parts.
Posted by: Arioch | Mar 22 2022 20:08 utc | 44
On Germany's capitulation to the US, that is the plan, keep Russia out, Germany down, and the US in, and its working a treat, the German people need to rise up and protest, this might happen when the economic belt tightens and Germans start to begin to find it hard to make ends meet.
The US only has a grip on Germany to push its own agenda, the same can be said of all European nations, just look at what's happened to Ukraine with American meddling.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 22 2022 20:09 utc | 45
Straight from the horse's mouth.
"US President Joe Biden raised eyebrows on Monday after he claimed a “new world order” would soon be established and that it was up to the United States to lead it.
During a speech at Business Roundtable’s CEO Quarterly Meeting, Biden claimed the world was at “an inflection point” which “occurs every three or four generations” and that it was up to the US to determine the outcome.
The comment raised eyebrows in both the US and around the world and resulted in ‘New World Order’ becoming one of Twitter’s trending topics on Monday."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 22 2022 20:14 utc | 46
There's been a lull before the storm. Lots of fake news that Russia's doing badly all orchestrated to make Russia look desperate i.e. so desperate Russia will carry out a chemical attack. US, UK, Ukraine all preparing the chemicals
Posted by: Ruth | Mar 22 2022 20:14 utc | 47
Tell me you are dumb without saying "I am dumb": Here's a post arguing that the Russian invasion is failing because bribes intended to go to Ukranian officers (to speed up a then purely theoretical invasion) ended up in the FSB's pockets.
The Satisfied Mind Is Satisfied!
(probably) Ukranian jamming of the "Buzzer" UVB-76 station is funny though. Don't you know spamming memes doesn't necessarily give you what you want?
It's really hard not to lose your sanity these days...
Posted by: pachinko | Mar 22 2022 20:20 utc | 48
State Department spokesman Ned Price made clear yesterday that, to the United States, the war is “bigger than Russia and Ukraine” because “there are principles that are at stake here that have universal applicability everywhere”.
What are these principles? “It is a sovereign right, the sovereign responsibility of every country to determine for itself its foreign policy, with whom it chooses to associate, and to make decisions regarding its path forward.”
https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-march-21-2022/
This, again, constitutes a direct rejection by the U.S. - first expressed in response to Russia Federation’s diplomatic letters from December 2021 - of the concept of mutual or regional security in favour of unilateral decision making. It represents a hegemonic position, despite being framed as an expression of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It is hardly a “universal” principle, as can be seen by the widespread support or understanding for Russia’s positions on these matters. The U.S. position also embodies its self-defined hegemonic “exception”, in that the current crisis is due in large part to its direct meddling with Ukraine’s ability to “determine” its “path forward” back in 2013-14.
Posted by: jayc | Mar 22 2022 20:22 utc | 49
The US Media is one big unified chorus/conglomeration of Baghdad Bobs ...
Posted by: Thomas Prentice | Mar 22 2022 20:23 utc | 50
karlof1 @39: I wasn't using that question "against" Lavrov. I was pointing out how it was an uncharacteristically bad answer from him.
For some reason, you chose to chop his answer to the point that it lost its context. The context was in relation to recognizing Poroshenko's election, which Lacrov himself brought up. In that context he said:
"France initiated the Normandy format; we were asked not to state categorically that we refused to recognise Petr Poroshenko’s election at the end of May 2014. The West assured us they would do everything to normalise the situation, so that Russians could live normally.
We must have trusted them because of some naivety and kindness of heart, which is something Russians are known for."
The context is clearly shown in the above quote. My issue with that is that after the Odessa massacre in early May and the initiation of the "anti-terrorist operation" in April, any notion of "trust" should have been out the window.
It's a bad answer, not typical of Lavrov. I'm not throwing shade at him for it; just bring honest.
Posted by: Woogs | Mar 22 2022 20:26 utc | 51
@Robert Lindsay #29:
I want to read someone more objective and see what they say.
Boris Rozhin’s daily SITREPs are quite good, e.g., this March 21 SITREP: Briefly about Ukraine. 03/21/2022.
Posted by: S | Mar 22 2022 20:28 utc | 52
b stated:
There is some talk that Russia has screwed up its campaign and some even hope that it might be losing the war. That's nuts.
Oriental Daily news of Hong Kong agrees with your assessment in their editorial page commentary today. In their views, the war is winding down, with Russia clearly on the winning side. Some of the refugees who fled the war are returning (some 200K so far) because they found the lives of refugees being unsafe, unstable, and harsh. Russian troops have taken care to ensure minimal disturbance to civilians even though the nazis are deliberately using the civilians as human shields. Infra-structures are still functional, power plants are protected, life is near normal given the circumstances.
I agree with Lavrov's view that the west's intent and initiation actually started in the 1990's. They have been plotting this scenario to materialize slowly but steadily. Weakening and demoralizing Russia have been their main strategy because their strategy is based on Russia being their last impediment to overcome before turning to confront China full force. The goal is total domination of the world. Towards that goal, they would, and proved to have done, anything within the play book of Satan. What Russia is doing is a decisive step to foil their creep towards global domination. China should join the fight, Big time.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 22 2022 20:30 utc | 53
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 22 2022 19:37 utc | 39
Kharkov anger was strong but short lived.
Kahrkov and Odessa had two largest marketpkaces in Ukraine, Barabashka and 7th km. Any hostilities freezing international trade hit on tbeir profits badly. Even Kharkov mayor, Kernes, for few days hesitated which side to take, until anotber Jes, Kolomoisky, told him to back down.
Some memories (authencity or sincerity i can't assess) show that antimaidan leaders were not foghting for common cause but mord about their personal profits and egos. Infighting instead of fighting their nominal common enemy. Kernes, after aligning with then not celebrity yet Dmitro "White Fuhrer" Biltesky, used exhaustion tactics. People were ordered by their nominal leaders to run altogether to one city place, then to another, etc. That mindless running substituted for any reasonable resistance building.
Night 14 Feb 2014 was really damned. Nazi of "Misantropic Division" were streamed online their shooting sniper rifles at Kharkov protesters on Rymarskaya street. People however managed to find them and block, called for police. Police came, together with that Jew mayor Kernes, who came in, shook hands with Biletsky (streamed online, so sick) and asked if none of them was in any harm. Thsn arranged fake arrest and police moved them away from the city away from angered crowd with two dead men and many wounded.
Meanwhile protest leaders were infighting and selling themselves, SBU was arresting most prominent ones, etc.
Basically to the end of February Kharkov protests were extinguished.
Then there were Odessa Massacre on May 2 and Mariupol V-Day massacre. There were Nikolaev's 300.
But all in all, the protests always were local and disjoint, and were squashed one after another.
It is not very clear why it took off in Donbass. Probably many factors contributed and perhaps not public ones. However lessons from and time bought by Kharkov and Odessa perhaps factored in too.
Posted by: Arioch | Mar 22 2022 20:31 utc | 54
Posted by: venice12 | Mar 22 2022 18:24 utc | 7
What would we do without you.
Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 22 2022 20:31 utc | 55
MUST READ:
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-bombers-could-devastate-ukraine-hes-holding-back-heres-why-1690494
Arkin interviewing a DIA analyst who says what we know: Russian forces have deliberately avoided civilian casualties. It's clear in the actual military events and dynamics.
Posted by: Prof | Mar 22 2022 20:32 utc | 56
I went to that guy Andrew milburn's website. I am absolutely disgusted - it's filled to the brim with propaganda despite some occasional more sober military analysis. Screw that guy, he's a real piece of work.
Posted by: someguy | Mar 22 2022 20:34 utc | 57
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 22 2022 18:39 utc | 15
My thoughts on night time attacks are this.
Russia has already knocked out the easy targets.
It now uses its Drones during day for reconnaissance,following Ukraine forces back to their bases etc,the shopping mall attack was a clear demonstration of this.It was then surgically attacked that night.
Posted by: Kim | Mar 22 2022 20:34 utc | 58
The bloody hands of Canada in Ukraine
NATO is a problem, not the solution
https://www.rt.com/news/552476-canada-ukraine-joly-engler-weapons/
Posted by: Virgile | Mar 22 2022 20:34 utc | 59
Here are some interesting facts about Coal, Steel, Russia, Ukraine, and Mariupol:
Russia is the fifth largest steel producer worldwide, following China, India, Japan, and U.S.
Russian steel production is trending upwards over the past decade at about 1% per year increase.
25% of Russia’s extensive iron ore sales ($2.1Bil per annum) went to Ukraine last year. Note that figure is for iron ore, the raw material input, rather than finished steel.
Russia has extensive iron and coal deposits. Only the U.S. has greater coal deposits
The steel facilities at Mariupol used to source coal from Donbass, but no longer. Now the facilities have to import coal from far-elsewhere. Donbass is likely to end up under Russia’s control.
Loss of Donbass coal puts the Mariupol facilities at a production-cost disadvantage.
The iron for at least one of the Mariupol facilities comes from Krivbas, Ukraine, about 150 miles northwest from Mariupol. See the ilyich link below.
The steel production at Mariupol includes a lot of really useful stuff. Structural steel, rail for railroads, hardened steel for chains, mining equipment, as well rolled steel like plate, rod, channel, pipe…used for everything from factories, trucks, railroad cars, factory apparatus. A very broad product line of highly useful materials. A lot of the factory complex is fairly modern, some of it is quite old, and needs updating.
It's huge, too. And right on the sea of Azov / Black sea. Short trip to the Mediterranean. Customers in E.U, along Mediterranean, thru Suez and around Indian Ocean. Some of the facilities are owned by Arcelor Mittal (Indian).
Russia will now control a lot of steel-making capacity in the southern Europe and west Asian region. Puts a somewhat different spin on things.
---- About those railroads, and steel rails, and bridge girders, and rolling-stock (train-cars) ....
On the subject of railroads, it's my expectation that Russian - to - China & 'Stans freight railroad construction is going to go into overdrive, and may end up being the dominant mode of transportation for BRI. I'd also expect a lot more north-south routes to get built through Russia and into the 'Stans, in addition to major upgrades of east-west traffic.
The other huge advantage of railroads is that you can build towns beside them. The U.S. rail system build-out was actually a town and local commerce build-out. And it was a "new beginning" for a lot of people living in over-crowded cities.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Mar 22 2022 20:34 utc | 60
Apparently Russia's MoD release a statement earlier today of approx 10,000 Russians killed and 16,000 wounded and then the statement was deleted. This was noted on SouthFront I believe I recall.
Sounds suspect. Wondering if anyone has heard further reporting on this statement?
Is Russia publishing such info I wonder. I know there are figures given for enemy equipment destroyed.
On the "news" sites they are showing video of enemy dead and captured. I would think that they would be responsible enough (many of them) to know that that is a bad practice for a variety of reasons.
Intel Slava seems to have picked-up where ASB/Military left off. But I dont find that stuff to be particularly newsworthy/informative. ANNA would be better I imagine, but dont know Russian.
Posted by: jared | Mar 22 2022 20:39 utc | 61
re: death for Germany's machine industry
It's also the death of China's rail BRI to Europe, a thousand trains a month.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:04 utc | 25
I agree. BRI, with linking Europe to China, is pointless with a shrinking industrial base in Europe and thus declining economic wealth. BRI should focus on getting access to commodities and securing supply for Chinese production. Countries that have the commodities will gain in wealth and thus will be the future markets for China to sell her products. China will get Eurasia and share Africa with the US. The US will have Europe and South America. But those continents dont have the resources to compete with Eurasia under China's leadership.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 22 2022 20:39 utc | 62
It is noted (Mercouris and I see on Z/H) that main stream media is starting to prepare the public that Russia may not be doing all that badly - sort of a "Grandma is on the roof..." scenario.
Posted by: jared | Mar 22 2022 20:42 utc | 63
Posted by: jared | Mar 22 2022 20:39 utc | 64
Kill death ratio of 10k killed and 16k wounded is not believable. Its a high intensity conflict, so 16k injured sounds reasonable (but still quite high), but not 10k killed.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 22 2022 20:44 utc | 64
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 22 2022 19:31 utc | 35
And we could multiply these examples. Stalingrad is the classic example where progress was measured weekly in rooms and metres. Recall Fallujah too. I completely agree: Mariupol has fallen a day shy of the month mark, which is impressive. It's also proof that these fascists are amateurs who leak like a sieve. They fantasise about the Waffen-SS but they can't walk that walk. What made those guys really dangerous was the degree of ideological conviction coupled with serious discipline. The Canadians around Caen found that out in '44 and changed up the rules: no prisoners. These Ukro-nazis are just adolescent larpers who have found out what professionalism means.
Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 22 2022 20:44 utc | 65
@ Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 22 2022 20:39 utc | 65
Everything will be re-assessed once the war is over.
I prefer to believe that potentially Russia is liberating Europe and the birds will sing again once Russia and Ukraine (in abscence of the diplomats from the US) work-out their differences.
Posted by: jared | Mar 22 2022 20:46 utc | 66
@ Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 22 2022 20:44 utc | 67
Perhaps so, but again claimed to be reported by Russia's MoD.
Posted by: jared | Mar 22 2022 20:48 utc | 67
Had enough of government/MSM narrative control?
"Western media hypocrisy in reporting from UkraineBy Gregory Clark"For eight years Ukraine’s military and ultra-nationalists militias have felt free to try to ravage the two Donbas hold-outs, beginning with the total destruction of a large modern airport of Donetsk..."
https://johnmenadue.com/western-media-hypocrisy-in-reporting-from-ukraine/
"(Reuters) - Australia, Britain, Canada and the United States have imposed outright bans on Russian oil purchases following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but members of the European Union are split..."
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/factboxwho-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2789556
First Western Journalist In Russia & DPR Controlled Volnovakha (Special Report)321,555 viewsMar 13, 2022......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lbiplu3Cyjg&t=92s
Posted by: Paul | Mar 22 2022 20:49 utc | 68
Is the west so sure that Russia will loose the battle to cleanup Ukraine that they are sending masses of offensive weapon? Dont they not realize that these weapons will only prolonged the conflict and kill more Ukrainians than Russians? By contributing to the war, Canada , the Usa , the UK are becoming responsible for the carnage.
Are they blinded by resentment and hatred that they just didn't see that they are killing more people instead of calling for a serious negotiations that will stop the bloodshed?
The west and their illusion of democracy has shown that they dont believe in diplomacy and on international organizations but on a clique of rich,arrogant and powerful countries who dictate international laws.They believe in the power of weapons and the defense industry growing business. Will they stop before that hysteria gets us in WWW3?
Posted by: Virgile | Mar 22 2022 20:51 utc | 69
Absolutely breathtaking interview by Mike Whitney with Larry C. Johnson about the amazing military op in Ukraine by Ru. I am wondering if Col. Lang still considers Larry a "bestie" after dispelling the "bogged-down" narrative so well. Great implications if you are anti-empire, globalist. If you are not, grab a loved-one's and enjoy the sunset.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 22 2022 20:54 utc | 70
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Mar 22 2022 20:34 utc | 63
Very interesting post Tom, thanks. BRI is plugged into the Black Sea with bilateral movement of goods east and west.
Re: Germany. Russia could begin to apply more pressure to them. At some point there will be an electoral revolt in Germany that will demand an independent foreign policy more in tune with Germany's long-term geopolitical position. But my guess is it will have to get a lot worse before it gets better. Compare Australia: we would eat shit before abandoning the US alliance. China could offer us the most favourable trade deal in history, pay for our infrastructure and throw in a back-rub and we'd still ask the US for permission. And if they said no we'd wag our tails. Germany on the other hand has history on its side...
Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 22 2022 20:55 utc | 71
As the situation shakes out, India will be a bellwether
. . .from The Times of India
Biden singles out India for 'shaky' response to Russia's aggression
WASHINGTON: United States President Joe Biden on Monday singled out India for its "shaky" response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine while claiming allies and partners across Nato and the Pacific were presenting a united front against Moscow.
[Biden] referred to sanctions by the Nato and Quad, where "with the possible exception of India being somewhat shaky on some of this", other [Quad] partners Japan and Australia have been "extremely strong. . .in terms of dealing with Putin's aggression.". . .here
Most of India's military materiel comes from Russia, including the S-400 air defense system, which caused the US to threaten sanctions on India under CAATSA.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 20:57 utc | 72
@Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 19:36 utc | 38
The idea of the northern section of the b r I is to reach Wealthy markets in europe. But if europe has descended into medieval time than the loss of that section really isn't that big of a deal.
Posted by: cindy6 | Mar 22 2022 20:57 utc | 73
@Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 22 2022 18:52 utc | 21
"I see that "Andrew Milburn, a former Marine colonel," is right in there pitching the propaganda narrative."
My thougt exactly! The fellow is doing a propaganda gig and trading in wishful thinking.
Posted by: Steve | Mar 22 2022 20:59 utc | 74
@ Arne Hartmann 65
BRI, with linking Europe to China, is pointless with a shrinking industrial base in Europe. . .
Yes, and China does have a general policy to promote local consumption over foreign sales.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 21:00 utc | 75
Quite a speech from President Putin a few days back in a packed out sports stadium, moral seems high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QD1eO9qoT0
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 22 2022 21:03 utc | 76
re: Andrew Milburn, a former Marine colonel pitching propaganda. He's no Smedley Butler.
MajGen Smedley D. Butler, USMC, double recipient of the Congressional Medal of Honor, 1935:
"I spent 33 years and 4 months in active service as a member of our country's most agile military force--the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from second lieutenant to Major General. And during that period I spent most of my time being a high-class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer for capitalism. I suspected I was part of a racket all the time. Now I am sure of it. Like all members of the military profession I never had an original thought until I left the service."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 21:09 utc | 77
Robert Lindsay @ 29
I agree. The USA has been polishing its consent manufacturing strategy for years. The lesson that it took from its Iraq WMD fiasco wasn’t ‘don’t lie’, but ‘lie better next time’, and that is what the USA and its enthusiastic minions have done in Syria and now Ukraine. In Australia we are getting saturation 24/7 tales of Russian perfidy, personal stories of Ukrainians, and diabolisation of Putin and things Russian.
Posted by: Extra | Mar 22 2022 21:10 utc | 78
@Don Bacon #38
I saw those articles - and none of them answer the question of just how Chinese manufacturing is going to get replaced by European consumers.
Or how European makers (those that can somehow survive the energy problems) can make up for China's enormous demand for Western goods.
Just the type of shallow analysis expected from Western publications these days.
So I ask again:
Where is the evidence?
Where is the precedent?
Where is the detailed explanation?
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 22 2022 21:14 utc | 79
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/
This is an article that is being passed around pro-nato/us sites
I find it laughable, and consider the source.
Thoughts on this premise that the US/west borg doesn’t want to admit it’s winning?(lol)
Posted by: Cadence Calls | Mar 22 2022 21:15 utc | 80
A Classic and a keeper.
Lavrov’s Q&A demonstrates how fortunate Russians are to have leaders who engage in critical thinking.
In the West we are impoverished.
Calming the hysteria….and countering the USNATO PR and fakes, Mr. Peskov appeared on CNN.
Russia Would Only Use Nuclear Weapons if Its Existence Was Threatened, Kremlin Says
https://sputniknews.com/20220322/russia-would-only-use-nuclear-weapons-if-its-existence-was-threatened-kremlin-says-1094096537.html
Russia would only use nuclear weapons if it determined its existence as a nation was threatened, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN."We have a concept of domestic security, it's public, you can read all the reasons for [Russia's] nuclear arms to be used," Peskov said during the interview. "If it is an existential threat for our country, then it can be used in accordance with our concept."
Peskov stated that the Kremlin did not want to believe that no one would listen to its concerns until the very last moment. According to him, the Putin administration hoped that Ukraine would not prepare for strikes against the Donbass, and hoped that there would be a breakthrough in the Normandy format, but it became absolutely clear to Moscow that Kiev would go on the offensive against the Donbass.
The Kremlin spokesman reiterated that the Russian military does not strike civilian targets, and the purpose of the special military operation is not the "occupation of Ukraine."
Peskov added that the special military operation in Ukraine is going exactly according to plan, noting that no one at the Kremlin initially thought that the special military operation would take a couple of days, as this is what was described as a serious operation with serious goals.
Peskov also refuted claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin is angry with Ukrainians. He noted, however, that Putin is angry with people in Ukraine who want their country to become a NATO member and potentially deploy American missiles. Peskov also suggested that the Russian president is angry with those who would forbid the use of the Russian language, and who wanted to participate in the Minsk negotiation process for years without fulfilling obligations.
Peskov was responding to a CNN journalist saying that some experts believe that Putin may be angry with Ukrainians. She also cited Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, who, she suggested, spoke of Putin's "growing hatred" for Ukrainian leadership and the nation’s citizens.[;]
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 22 2022 21:15 utc | 81
And now I see that posting direct links isn’t jacking up threads anymore.
I was loathe to link, because of issues we had in the past.
But it looks like things are running smoother nowadays.
Cheers, and I will be linking to support my thoughts when necessary.
Posted by: Cadence Calls | Mar 22 2022 21:18 utc | 82
>>>>: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 22 2022 18:39 utc | 15
I find the claim that Stingers would force Russian aircraft into the night ridiculous. Instead it is far more likely the Russians have found Ukrainian night time abilities to be so much worse than their own that they take the advantage, in other words the complete opposite to what the reporter is writing.
Perhaps the Russians have run out of important daytime targets and are now focussed on destroying all the trucks being used to ship in Stingers, Javelins and NLAWs which would most likely operate at night.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 22 2022 21:20 utc | 83
@the pessimist #35
The example used is more like one 3rd world outfit fighting another.
I don't see the Philippine army as being remotely comparable to the Russian armed forces.
Nor is the Philippine army particularly experienced in any form of combat - which the same cannot be said for the Russians.
Then there's the equipment: The Philippine army certainly does not have the artillery the Russians have.
Grozny was basically leveled and the remains picked over. The same occurred in the holdout portions of cities/towns in Syria, and is what is going to happen to Ukrainian cities if Russia decides it wants to take them (and is probably happening in Mariupol now).
That is probably the primary one of many reasons why the AFU is not cooperating with humanitarian corridors.
Note again that I'm not saying the urban core fighting in Ukraine is going to be easy, but I am saying that using bad examples is not going to yield an informed opinion.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 22 2022 21:21 utc | 84
I think they did nothing in 2014 because they have been thinking and operating in a primarily geopolitical context since long before then with the symbiotic alliance with China being front and center as part of a long-term plan to develop a new 21st century Eurasian-based civilization.
In that context, Ukraine was an ideal sacrificial pawn, a pretext for kinetic operations at Europe's doorstep in opposition to their master the US, military operations which could be used as pretext to destabilize the current world order such that an already weakened West would finally fall off their pedestal.
2014 wasn't the time for that sort of well-coordinated geopolitical storm.
2022 is.
By year's end expect many central bank digi-currencies, new passport controls for all sorts of things linked with the cashless coinage and so forth.
The war provides great cover and pretext for all this sort of techno-fascist geopolitical gerrymandering.
Posted by: BaronAsh | Mar 22 2022 21:21 utc | 85
Here are some interesting facts about Coal, Steel, Russia, Ukraine, and Mariupol:
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Mar 22 2022 20:34 utc | 63
Thank you for that Tom, very interesting. Makes it clear that Russia has a lot of reasons to be in Ukraine right now, maybe more that we don't know of as yet.
Posted by: K | Mar 22 2022 21:26 utc | 86
woogs @54--
Thanks for your reply! Clearly, we have differing interpretations that can only be solved by watching the video. The last question comes at the 1:12 mark near its end. Lavrov appears tired and a bit haggard as might be expected. The amount of buffering makes it almost impossible to discern tone and quality of diction.
Anyway, I know we're on the same team desiring to live on a peaceful, just world, not the one we're currently experiencing.
Arioch @57--
Thanks for your reply and review of events.
>>>>: james | Mar 22 2022 19:08 utc | 26
"As a result of the shelling, the Pavlograd-2 railway station was destroyed, the railway track and rails were destroyed, 15 freight cars derailed. Traffic through the station has been suspended indefinitely." that is the train line between dnipro and the donbass area.... i would like to see a train map of ukraine...https://www.mapsofworld.com/ukraine/rail-map.html
i can't quite figure out the strategic value of taking it out..
Quickest way of moving a large number of armoured vehicles like tanks, APCs, etc. Run a train in, load the vehicles on, run the train out. Do it over a couple of nights and you could remove a lot of tanks. Leaving by road, one or two break down and column stops moving.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 22 2022 21:29 utc | 88
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 22 2022 20:57 utc | 75
Biden: India "shaky"
Arnab on Republic TV had one of his debates on that quote. Interesting for the perspective of a media outlet supposedly close to Modi.
Spoiler alert: It didn't go over well in India. The conversation went so badly that one representative of a Henry (the Scooper) Jackson Institute, no doubt for the advancement of eternal war, dropped out of the discussion.
Posted by: HMP | Mar 22 2022 21:32 utc | 89
@Woogs #3, #16
I have responded to these types of allegations before, I respond again:
Russia was not ready in 2014 nor was the situation favorable as follows:
1) Russia had not yet begun the process of divesting from Western fiat and into gold. Note that this process was never going to completely divorce, but the CBR pretty much removed all GBP from reserves and had built up a pretty big position in gold.
2) Russia had not yet revealed hypersonic weapons
3) Russia had not yet completed its military buildup - 1st Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army, for example
4) The world was not short of oil like it is today
5) Russian reserves were $450B in 2014 and shrunk from there as oil prices slipped at the end of 2014 through 2016
6) Russia and China had not yet announced their alliance
7) The US had not yet shown its weakness - both via Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco and failure in the Syrian conflict
So it is all well and good to say, in hindsight, that Lavrov and Putin should have gone in guns blazing in 2014 - but anyone saying this is immature and doesn't understand how 2014 is fundamentally different than 2/24/2022.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 22 2022 21:33 utc | 90
On BRI to Europe--if you have no money, you can't buy any goods. It's that fucking simple! Same with the Outlaw US Empire. No money=Depression. The Neoliberal dream is for all the plebs to owe all their disposable income to them to service their debts, with next to nothing to live on.
In the middle of war in Ukraine in march 2022, lavrov the clueless, says
" According to the Russian Foreign Minister, Moscow is ready to resume mutually beneficial cooperation with Western partners, but there are no more illusions that one can rely on them"
As long as Russia is unfortunate to have a unelectable FM like Lavrov with tenure of more than two decades, then Russia is bound to backstab her allies and let an almost militarily won situation turn Quagmire with useless long talk. Let us not forget that diplomacy has role to avert military action and once military action starts, it should not be hampered by diplomatic talk until mitary victory is achieved.
Lavrov cuts into military achievement of Russia by interfering with his useless talk none of which has been successful in last 20 years.
Lavrov is the reason Russia forced Donbass for ceasefire in Debaltsevo CAULDRON (in LDNR) in February 2015 and in Syria in Feb. 2016 when pro russian side was winning.
What really sucks in DPR and LPR wanted to reoslve this sh*t years ago just before Minsky Agreement. They had them in a Cauldron and were told to back off. Poor Givi, Motorola and Alexander Zakachenko were later assisinated by this Azov Ukie scum.
Syrian forces captured some NATO operations center and detained the people there (US, UK, Turkey military/intelligence people etc.), but had to hand them over to the Russians. Who only set them free in fact lavrov and his side kick UN reorentative Churkin only rebuked Syrian president Assad on Feb 2026 when Assad was reluctant to follow order from lavrov to do ceasefire at a time Syrian forces were winning. So much for mild nature of that lavrov-which is reserved only for anglos.
All actions of lavrov point to his being a British agent.
Posted by: Spn | Mar 22 2022 21:37 utc | 92
@Sunny Runny Burger #15
I agree that the term "force" is stupid.
But that the Russian air force is attacking at night for tactical reasons can be perfectly legit.
While Stingers are heat seeking - you have to actually see the target aircraft first. Not at all clear to me how easy that is at night, vs. daytime. Note that while you can hear the aircraft in either situation - actually being able to see where an aircraft is, where it is heading, what speed, what type of aircraft, etc is probably pretty important when you're a guy dragging around a 35 pound, very ungainly object with a range of 5 miles max.
And note these MANPAD carrying peeps are trying to shoot at aircraft flying hundreds of miles per hour.
I'd also note that it seems the Russian air force is primarily targeting supply lines: factories, fuel depots and what not. There isn't really any benefit to attacking such targets in the daytime - I'd think daylight is far more important for close air support. But again, AFAIK, Russian tactical combat doctrine is very different than US/NATO doctrine: Russians make far more use of artillery - missile and projectile - as opposed to aircraft launched munitions for close air support.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 22 2022 21:40 utc | 93
So it is all well and good to say, in hindsight, that Lavrov and Putin should have gone in guns blazing in 2014 - but anyone saying this is immature and doesn't understand how 2014 is fundamentally different than 2/24/2022.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 22 2022 21:33 utc | 93
Exactly, and I would add that since when is Mr Lavrov as a diplomat in a very dangerous situation required to westplain every little detail? And to do so wouldl give more fodder to the propaganda machines.
Yes maybe he is also tired but I think its as simple as him saying "go work it our for yourselves" He knows they aren't listening anyway.
Posted by: K | Mar 22 2022 21:41 utc | 94
Posted by: james | Mar 22 2022 19:08 utc | 26
According to Boris Rozhin hitting that particular railway center is strategically important for stopping the resupplies for the Donbass VSU forces.
Posted by: Boo | Mar 22 2022 21:42 utc | 95
Lavrov the traitor persuaded then president. Medvedev to sacrifice Libya gaddafi in order to please anglos. In this way lavrov and Medvedev single handedly resurrected Nato.lavrov pressed Medvedev to say openly "gaddafi must go."!
Posted by: Ava | Mar 22 2022 21:43 utc | 96
>Ukrainian soldiers mock their Russian counterparts
Lolwhat? Russian infantry has obliterated every resistance it deemed necessary to obliterate so far. Neither were Russian columns "culled" to any significant degree.
That clown is desperately self-medicating, as is usual with anglo talking shit about russian arms. The bullshit about "sheer reckless mass" wrt artillery is especially telling, because in reality Russians are employing Krasnopol basically nonstop.
Posted by: URGH | Mar 22 2022 21:43 utc | 97
@c1ue 93
I believe and agree with all your points, except 4 and 7.
#4 I’m not sure the world is short of oil. Not disagreeing, but I’m just not ready to go there.
I think there is plenty of oil and fossil fuels. But I believe the Green push is intentionally making it more expensive to extract.
#7 We all pretty much know the US was showing weakness before Afganistan and Syria.
I think you’re just speaking of militarily and geo strategically? Yes?
But there was weakness before, economically, politically, socially, AND militarily (as I suspect your point is)
There are too many weak points to list
Posted by: Cadence Calls | Mar 22 2022 21:45 utc | 98
@Arioch | Mar 22 2022 20:08 utc | 47
Spot on. Also, the weapons were not in place. Even more, the Russian society was not ready for such combat. The academia was ruled by pro western liberals by well 80% if not more. Two years ago, Russia was thread thin away from a "colour revolution" triggered by some adverse economic outcomes, and corruption and prolly election fraud of the ruling ER. The return of Crimea stuffed the mouths of the most vocal fifth column to some extent but they were still very powerful.
And yes, Putin and his inner circle were still struggling with decisions. Putin originally was a lot liberal leaning, albeit never neoliberal. They all had to learn.
Equally important, if not more: China, too, yet had to learn her lesson. Putin and Hu Jintao had just forged the border accord which closed a dark chapter of conflicts, and was even hard to sell in China, acknowledging the territorial outcome of unequal treaties of the late 19th and early 20th century. Sino-Russian cooperation had still to develop, and China learn the hard way about the trustworthiness of the United States.
Posted by: aquadraht | Mar 22 2022 21:52 utc | 99
Woogs | Mar 22 2022 18:09 utc | 3
I covered the evening before the deadly sniper attack … no one caught or was prosecuted for that crime in the Western led coup d’état removing a democratically elected president Yanukovich …
Ukraine: Extremists Reject EU Deal, Demand Violent Overthrow | Feb 21st, 2014 |
The extremist leaders took the stage and in a fascist style rhetoric rejected this EU brokered deal. This leader made a clear threat and demanded the resignation of president Yanukovich by 10am tomorrow morning. If he doesn't step down, the mob will march on the presidential palace and force him out. We will be armed and no one can stop us.
Entered another coffin pushed forward through the crowd and all were silenced in prayer.
All calls for no more bloodshed fell on deaf ears.
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The reason behind it was that people needed to learn by doing. Before the maneuvers everyone had been 'fully trained'. But a few days on the training range do not give the experience one needs in the real world. Driving and 'fighting' through real villages and cities, real camouflaging against an 'enemy' airforce, real dueling in the open landscape day after day are different than training range time.
They were certainly in the field on maneuver for a long time prior to the assault. Practice makes perfect.
Posted by: circumspect | Mar 22 2022 18:06 utc | 1