Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 01, 2022

Disarming Ukraine - Day 6

Just a few points (which I may add to later on):

  • Russia's military operational security seems to work well as little is leaking out about the positions of its forces.
  • Mariupol in the south is now encircled. The Ukraine has lost all access to the sea of Azov.
  • After a warning that it would attack 'psychological operation' infrastructure in Kiev a Russian plane bombed the electricity substation that feeds the studios and media centers around the TV-tower of Kiev.
Denis Kazakiewicz @Den_2042 - 4:01 PM · Mar 1, 2022
You cannot make this stuff up.
At today's security council meeting, Lukashenka - while lying about “surgical operation” - showed what looks like an actual invasion map.

bigger

Lukashenko has not been a quite successful president of Belarus for 26 years because he is dumb. If you believe that the picture shows the  actual plan you probably should go back to school.

Posted by b on March 1, 2022 at 17:14 UTC | Permalink

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doing my morning news run, come across this article.

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/stop-painting-ukraine-as-the-good-guy/

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 2 2022 12:47 utc | 501

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 2 2022 7:17 utc | 454


I believe that yesterday’s attack on Kharkiv’s main square, as well as this attack on the university building, were both false flag operations . . .
The desired effect of course is to whip up the west into enough of a frenzy that they get involved in this war.

Very reminiscent of the downing of MH17. Similar tactic, similar intent. Mr Lira had better hope the RF arrives at his doorstep before the idealistic humanitarian SBU or the freedom loving Pravy Sektor do.

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 2 2022 12:55 utc | 502

University of Milan banned Dostoyevsky,

Posted by: Jonathan W | Mar 2 2022 12:58 utc | 503

Zlensky’s Saakashvili Moment
Ron Paul
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2022/march/01/zelensky-s-saakashvili-moment/
In 2008 as then-president of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili realized that his attack on Russian peacekeepers and civilians in South Ossetia had elicited a Russian military response that ended up with the Russian army practically knocking on his door in Tbilisi...

Quite interesting and acurate concerning UKR-RUS proceedings:
https://mobile.twitter.com/gbaz
Also
comprehensive INSIDE-OUTSIDE-RUS daily overview by
https://t.me/s/rian_ru


Posted by: MD | Mar 2 2022 12:58 utc | 504

John Gilberts @451

Thanks very much for posting the Russian Embassy statement, John.

By the way, I've long admired your posts on a certain Canadian political website.

Posted by: spudski | Mar 2 2022 12:59 utc | 505

A French minister: "We can already see the effects (of the sanctions), the rouble has lost 30%, Russian reserves are melting like snow in the sun, inflation is rising, Russians are queuing up in front of banks.

The economic and financial balance of power is totally in favour of the European Union, which is discovering its economic power. (...)

The United States and Europe together are the most powerful economic and financial continent on the planet and have considerable power to act," the minister warned.

Posted by: Leuk | Mar 2 2022 12:14 utc | 494

The moment of discovery of power is full for overwhelming emotions, so the minister used some words that were not authorized. Yet. As the things regress, a minister who mentions Russia without adding something like "barbarian hordes", "will be crushed" will soon0 fired within an hour, subsequently, any fireable person who commits a thought crime will be fired with 5 minutes and publicly humiliated, not jeering at the culprit will be a though crime too.


Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 2 2022 13:03 utc | 506

Breaking - Kiev forces near Konstantinovka, have apparently seen their military infrastructure destroyed.

https://johnplatinumgoss.com/2022/03/02/breaking-konstantinovka-targets-destroyed/

Posted by: John Goss | Mar 2 2022 13:05 utc | 507

@Arch Bungle #423
The PPP GDP list is intended to be purely a factual one: which countries will go along with the US/EU sanctions list, and what is the relative economic power which is "for" or "not for" sanctions.

A list of "condemn Russian actions" should resemble the PPP GDP list somewhat but would cover purely mainstream, government official statements.

Neither addresses "man on the street" views.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 13:26 utc | 508

@Don Bacon #438
@Arch Bungle

Re: Mexico - Given the maquiladoras on Mexico's border with the US plus Mexico's dependence on US refineries, it doesn't surprise me if the US leverages Mexico to a more amenable position, especially since Mexico's trade with Russia is like $2B in imports (steel, fertilizers and aluminum being top 3).

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 13:30 utc | 509

@bobzibub #493
Your description is quite correct: the vast majority of organic economic growth is on the "not for sanctions" countries.

I would note that this describes not just economic reality today, but economic reality going back for 2 or 3 decades.

And this in turn causes me to say that your original question could be modified a bit:

When the Iron Curtain comes, where will the growth be?

becomes

As the West erects an Iron Curtain around itself, where will its future growth come from?

De-dollarization has certainly been accelerated by the events of the past week.
A successful Russian response against these sanctions will further boost de-dollarization.

To be clear: rising energy prices due to this conflict (I mean the real one: US/EU vs. Russia) is going to hurt everyone, and the "not for sanctions" economies more because food and fuel is a larger part of per capita GDP in those countries.

However, Russia's role in global food and energy - presuming canny Russian policy = is such that the impact very likely to be far lower than the effects of US "taper tantrums" in the past.
The fact that the US was going to taper anyway (and is behind ROW interest rate hikes) also is interesting.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 13:42 utc | 510

Framarz | Mar 2 2022 11:35 utc | 485
3. More sanctions from enemy means less influence by enemy. Here we are not talking about only economics but also cultural and political influence. This also limits the surface and channels where the 5th colon can do their damage.

Very good point, especially if your nation has a strong sense of identity ( as well as resources )

Posted by: dp | Mar 2 2022 13:46 utc | 511

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 1 2022 19:21 utc | 85


have y'all seen the "blogtracker" or whatever the website rating service is, says MoonofAlabama is 40% reliable but zero found false stories; lol Also says you're pretty hard left, I'm not sure if that's true or what the spectrum actually is; the Democrats skew right of Center so, I'm not sure that means much in terms of foreign policy.

Your concern over the "reliability" of this site is appreciated. The quality of the comments would be much improved if you posted elsewhere or simply returned to playing Risk.


Bubbles, years of Risk helps, but most of us likely expect it to connect to the North Sea, hold it and the Middle East and you control one part of the globe in the Hasbro game of Risk. The Breakup of Russia really messed up the relevance of the crude Risk map; but 1/3 of Americans can still find it on a map. "You sank my battleship"--I know, totally different game
Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 1 2022 20:39 utc | 174

Posted by: Sushi | Mar 2 2022 13:47 utc | 512

c1ue @ 508

Thank you for that explanation. I have to say that I couldn't tease out the meaning of your listings at #413, being somewhat challenged when it comes to statistics.

Any other plain language summaries would be greatly appreciated, if you are so inclined.

Thanks again.

Posted by: expat | Mar 2 2022 13:50 utc | 513

@Leuk #494
Maybe it is a bad translation, but "The United States and Europe together are the most powerful economic and financial continent on the planet" is highly incoherent.

As my list above shows - the US and EU no longer dominate the world economy. Even the addition of Japan yields a less than 50% of World PPP GDP.

Then there's this focus on

1) exchange rates: for a trade surplus nation, a lower exchange rate is actually favorable. Only trade deficit nations benefit from strong exchange rates. Interestingly, most of the EU is trade deficit.

2) reserves: the type of sanctions set up plus seizure of dollar/euro reserves held by Russia/RCB is incentivizing Russia to cut off trade vs. the EU. Who exactly ends up suffering more in such a situation?

Time will tell.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 13:50 utc | 514

What next?

Here is something to watch when preparing for tomorrow's main event: Battleship Potemkin (1925) with English Subtitles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca0c4vEc5Is

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 2 2022 13:58 utc | 515

Mercouris added an Interview with Col. Macgregor on Fox News to his talk from yesterday - worth watch, you find it right at the beginning, and nice to hearing a sane voice from the US.

Col. Macgregor keeps it real on Fox News. China ready to mediate settlement

Posted by: Fran | Mar 2 2022 13:58 utc | 516

@expat #511
A very good point.

The reason I wanted to assemble to "for sanctions" and "not for sanctions" list is because I wanted to understand the relative economic power behind each bloc.

PPP GDP is a generic measure, but consider relative PPP GDP economic power as the equivalent of a financial border for Russia in this instance.

If we look at the sanctions against North Korea or Iran - which started in the 1980s - I would bet that 85% or more of world PPP GDP was "for sanctions" when these sanctions started - in no small part because the US and EU together probably represented over 60% of world GDP (certainly over 50%). The US/EU itself was enough to make sanctions against a country effective, to which the US/EU could economically threaten other countries to comply as well.
This means North Korea's and Iran's "financial borders" were basically completely cut off.

However, the US and EU together are roughly ~30% of world GDP today.

It means sanctions against a country today require a lot more cooperation from other countries in order to close the target nation's "financial border".
The US/EU's capability to compel other countries to join their policies is also lower.
China is a key: China's PPP GDP is over 18% of the world's economy today.

Net net: if more than half of the total PPP GDP of the top 140 countries is "not for sanctions", Russia's financial border is made smaller by US/EU sanctions - but not closed off.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 14:04 utc | 517

If Ukraine with all the weaponry they already possessed were Palestine, and if that Palestine were making war with a Jewish town in Palestine for even one year, and that Palestine had close ties to a powerful militarized Arab league hostile to Israel sending them hundreds of millions in weaponry; and then they threatened to develop nuclear weapons if Israel invaded, then Israel would have already practically wiped that Palestine off the map and no one would care.

Palestine has used makeshift rockets to resist a military occupation, and illegal land grab, almost 60 years in the making, and Israel went in several times and bombed them almost to the stone age killing close to 3000 civilians (approx. 500 of them children) each time and has stolen and resettled more than two-thirds of the territory Palestine had after the Partition of 1948.

The US has sent hundreds of billions in weapons to Israel; a land grabbing state, for decades now.

The EU, Canada, the UN -- no one give a damn, but Russia is held to another, impossible standard. Russia is the evil Empire according to the US, but which Empire has decimated the lives of millions of people since the mid 1960s?

THE EMPIRE OF LIES.

Posted by: Circe | Mar 2 2022 14:11 utc | 518

@ Malchik Ralf | Mar 2 2022 9:52 utc | 468

The USA has set dozens of those bad precedents in its existence, some of those precedents being quite recent, but of course you didn't notice because they were set in countries that were insufficiently white.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 2 2022 14:19 utc | 519

c1ue @515

Thanks so much for your follow-up elaboration.

Sort of looks like we are heading for a massive split of the world economy into two world economies. Way above my analytical skills to expound on, other than to say that I suspect I will be glad I've always lived below my means.

As if to prod this development even further, this from Reuters:

Biden sends former top defence officials to Taiwan in a show of support

The neocons are again displaying their uncanny ability to "unite and conquer[?]"

Thanks again

Posted by: expat | Mar 2 2022 14:19 utc | 520

SHTF day for natgas. Penny dropped overnight, now bidding war betw EU and East Asia for northern hemisphere heating season '22-'23 supply. They may be anticipating Gazprom possible/likely taking the obvious response to possible/likely getting assets confiscated by captive EU regulator and banking complex

Posted by: ptb | Mar 2 2022 14:21 utc | 521

There are some situation maps here ==> https://militaryland.net/ukraine/deployment-map/

Posted by: too scents | Mar 2 2022 14:28 utc | 522

@expat #518
Yes on being ready for increased financial hardship.

TBD on splitting into 2 economic blocs worldwide.

In particular, Europe is heavily dependent on Russian energy. AFAIK: Russia provides 45% of German coal, 50% of German natural gas, 30% of German oil.

High prices for coal, for natural gas, for oil now mean even a cutoff of Russian export to Germany would not destroy the Russian economy - but this doesn't come into play because Russia can sell what it energy exports to Germany today - to someone else.

I don't believe Germans, French etc are willing to undergo real suffering: the significant financial and physical discomfort that would result from a Russian cutoff of energy exports.
The Russian people and economy, in contrast, are far better prepared and willing to "take it".

It seems very unlikely to me that Russia is the weak hand in this standoff so a resolution in months is not out of the question.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 14:33 utc | 524

The Russian people and economy, in contrast, are far better prepared and willing to "take it".
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 14:33 utc | 522

---

For example, contrast the Russian handling of Chernobyl with the Japanese handling of Fukushima.

Posted by: too scents | Mar 2 2022 14:37 utc | 525

Earlier in this thread there was some discussion on the massive Russian convoy that made its appearance in Brit propaganda.
Video from a twitter account showing the magic of video software
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1499019014433087492?cxt=HHwWiIC5rb_2ys0pAAAA

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2022 14:39 utc | 526

Just 3 bews items from Germany

Gas price hits new record high
gaspreis-steigt-zeitweise-auf-rekordhoch

VW and Porsche stop production
ukraine-krieg-vw-und-skoda-fehlen-teile-aus-ukraine-porsche-plant-produktionsstopp

BMW stops production
produktionsunterbrechung-bmw-aktie-in-rot-produktionsstopps-wegen-lieferengpaessen-export-nach-russland-wird-eingestell


The car industry is Germany's backbone, not only the big companies, but the small parts suppliers as well. They together employ most of our workforce. I dont want to be an alarmist, but the decision on sanctioning Russia seems to be existantial for Germany.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 2 2022 14:43 utc | 527

Russia had launched an aggression war and the sky falls on his head (swift cut, bank accounts frozen, sport ban, artists ban...). Russian justifications are pretexts : genocide and pre-emptive attack.

We are very happy to know that the sky is concerned by aggression wars.

Thanks to the sky to punish the same way Israel, USA, France, UK, Turkey for the aggression of Syria, Palestine, Irak, Chypre, Serbia with stupid motives genocide and pre-emptive attack.

Posted by: koui | Mar 2 2022 14:44 utc | 528

I dont know why, but my post isnt getting through, so I post it without the links to the news items.

Just 3 bews items from Germany

Gas price hits new record high

VW and Porsche stop production

BMW stops production

The car industry is Germany's backbone, not only the big companies, but the small parts suppliers as well. They together employ most of our workforce. I dont want to be an alarmist, but the decision on sanctioning Russia seems to be existantial for Germany.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 2 2022 14:46 utc | 529

I listened to Petraeus on CNN and he's totally delusional.

He seems to be projecting his failures in Iraq and Afghanistan on Putin.

Petraeus is responsible for unimaginable civilian deaths in both countries. F#cking war criminal many times over has zero credibility on the outcome of Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

Posted by: Circe | Mar 2 2022 14:48 utc | 530

The Ukes and Poles are discriminating against Blacks and brown residents of Ukraine leaving cities to find refuge.

Posted by: Circe | Mar 2 2022 14:53 utc | 531

this is a showdown between Putin and NATO, NATO Is unwilling to fight; uninterested; willing only to fight to the last Ukrainian; this divided Ukrainians from NATO That was always Putin's first goal. Once NATO stands down, the sanctions will ease; the only question is how far NATO will push it, the more they push, they more leverage they will forever lose. NATO is slow to realize, I don't think Putin expected to go in; I think he thought NATO would come to it's senses; but we're delusional; we believe our own propaganda; but as we game this out, surely we're coming to reality. Or, perhaps the bureaucrats will be able to congratulate themselves, declare victory over some feckless sanctions and move on. But the dissent is minimal, they've cleverly got the anti-war impulse supporting the neo-colonialism of Ukraine's NATO/neo-con puppets. It's really on us to point out that Crimeans voted 95% for Russia (In an election the CARTER CENTER oversaw and certified) Just ask people to google the Azov Battalion, or "what is Minsk2" The media won't ask these questions yet, if their commentboards are peppered with these questions, they'll eventually get addressed.

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 2 2022 15:07 utc | 532

Sushi, boy you guys can't avoid the ad-hominem; that's the problem; with your partisan perspective, it perverts your understanding. You have a lot of good stuff, but then you go beyond what's logical, beyond what's evident; you divert to religious fantasies about second comings and divine interventions, or some Ayn Randian fantasy world. Reel it back a bit, lay off the fallacy; quit trying to imagine we reach some final resolution that will suddenly end all history and time. Get out of the partisan cesspool of criticism; they take their audiences for fools. Michael Hudson's piece is most accurate, the three legs of the economy, FIRE, Mining/Drilling, and the Military/security complex dominate both parties and the media; seeing partisan differences is only for show. The DNC and RNC agree on 95% of policies, even Ron Paul held a press conference saying as such, (w the Constitutional Party, the Green Party)

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 2 2022 15:16 utc | 533

If this doesn't tell you something as to the Russian intentions, and that they are not what is portrayed by Western media, nothing will.
https://twitter.com/1013thom/status/1498901600114380804

Posted by: C_A | Mar 2 2022 15:38 utc | 534

I'm thinking that splitting the world into two economic blocks, like splitting the atom, will release a tremendous amount of energy.

There are a lot of economic zombies whose can can no longer be kicked.

Posted by: too scents | Mar 2 2022 15:40 utc | 535

@c1ue | Mar 2 2022 13:50 utc | 516

About French minister of Economy’s statement : "The United States and Europe together are the most powerful economic and financial continent on the planet". It is NOT a translation error. It's the way poodles commit Freudian slips.

Posted by: Leuk | Mar 2 2022 15:59 utc | 536

"The United States and Europe together are the most powerful economic and financial continent on the planet and have considerable power to act," the minister warned.

The French minister here is 100% deluded and deserves the fate he and his Neoliberal kin have designed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 2 2022 16:34 utc | 537

ScottinDallas @533--

I hope you understand that for Putin NATO means the Outlaw US Empire, for he well understands that its European members are all vassals.

Arne Hartmann @530--

That Germany's auto industry would become the major casualty of Scholtz's idiocy was easily foreseeable. The question now is what will the German public do to solve the situation?

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 2 2022 16:43 utc | 538

That Germany's auto industry would become the major casualty of Scholtz's idiocy was easily foreseeable. The question now is what will the German public do to solve the situation?

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 2 2022 16:43 utc | 539

Nothing, of course, and for two reasons:

1. Obedience is more strongly ingrained into the national character than just about anywhere else in the world.
2. Short of a well armed general strike (think: Yellow Vests x 50 with AK-47s), there's nothing they can do anyway. None of the political parties that exist, with the exception of the minuscule Trotzkyist party (I don't know about AfD, but Die Linke has fallen in line nicely), is opposed to rearming the Ukraine, damn the consequences.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 2 2022 16:51 utc | 539

malenkov @540--

Sad prognostication, but likely correct. I recall how Germany was crippled by Versailles to the extent that it aided Hitler's rise. There's no longer any Communist foe to hate, but antipathy for Slavs is very longstanding and already primed as a substitute. What about the migrants? I can see them being attacked for taking German jobs, etc. as the economy dives. And what if BRI imports/exports are stopped? The French minister was actually correct when he spoke of Economic War with Russia, but he forgot to include the whole of Europe being affected, not just France.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 2 2022 17:03 utc | 540

5 against, 35 abstained in UN General Assembly to condemn Russia. Wake up call for "the most powerful economic and financial continent on the planet"

Posted by: Framarz | Mar 2 2022 17:14 utc | 541

Funny place: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenZedong/comments/t4xn50/title/

But don't try to write there - they instaban anyone who is "subscribed to anticommunist subreddits" no matter if what you wrote there and if at all

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 2 2022 17:15 utc | 542

@542 Error

Sorry, Venezuela was absent and not abstain it's 5 against and 34 abstained.

Posted by: Framarz | Mar 2 2022 17:40 utc | 543

@Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 2 2022 9:27 utc | 466

They aren't lies, though you certainly are an idiot.

Posted by: Ben | Mar 2 2022 18:12 utc | 544

To be clear: rising energy prices due to this conflict (I mean the real one: US/EU vs. Russia) is going to hurt everyone, and the "not for sanctions" economies more because food and fuel is a larger part of per capita GDP in those countries.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 2 2022 13:42 utc | 508

I think that non-western countries may buy resources from Russia in bargain deals, though. That's what i heard, Russia is offering discounts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/indian-refiners-are-snapping-up-cheap-russian-oil

Posted by: Passer by | Mar 2 2022 19:10 utc | 545

Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2022 20:24 utc | 161

Well, Poland do want it back

Posted by: Barofsky | Mar 2 2022 20:16 utc | 546

MD | Mar 2 2022 12:58 utc | 505

"Zelensky’s Saakashvili Moment"

Let's sucker some stooge into poking the bear like it is 2008 all over again

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Mar 2 2022 21:10 utc | 547

Returning parts of Ukraine

Russia is waiting to see the full extent of sanctions from the West. I actually think they want the EU to sanction all their oil/gas as it would relieve them of having to do it themselves. That way they can say in the future that it was the Europeans who didn't want their oil/gas, etc. and that they had never shut it off.

At this point almost everything that can be sanctioned has been. It raises an interesting question on if Russia will live up to its statement on wanting to leave Ukraine after it has met it's objectives. Why? Why not keep keep the littoral regions along the Sea of Azov from Donetsk to Kherson/Dnieper River or further to Odessa or even Transnistria? It's not going to make any difference on how the West sees them and it might be quite useful for Russia in the long term to control that part of the world.

At best I would not initially return that area and use it as a bargaining chip for later after the hostilities have ended. It would help ensure that any agreements would actually be met. Whatever happens they need to ensure that the water supply to Crimea from the Dnieper River is kept open.

Posted by: Douglas Houck | Mar 2 2022 21:20 utc | 548

c1ue (510)

If trade were the only vector the USA would be in deep trouble since EU largest trade partner is China USA No2 and UK No3

If trade are the only vector USA would be very nice to China and welcome its trade deficits - maybe China could make antibiotics in USA ? They already have automotive glass factories - Fuyao and are training ~Americans to work

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 5 2022 10:27 utc | 549

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