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Disarming Ukraine – Day 6
Just a few points (which I may add to later on):
- Russia's military operational security seems to work well as little is leaking out about the positions of its forces.
- Mariupol in the south is now encircled. The Ukraine has lost all access to the sea of Azov.
- After a warning that it would attack 'psychological operation' infrastructure in Kiev a Russian plane bombed the electricity substation that feeds the studios and media centers around the TV-tower of Kiev.
Denis Kazakiewicz @Den_2042 – 4:01 PM · Mar 1, 2022
You cannot make this stuff up.
At today's security council meeting, Lukashenka – while lying about “surgical operation” – showed what looks like an actual invasion map.
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Lukashenko has not been a quite successful president of Belarus for 26 years because he is dumb. If you believe that the picture shows the actual plan you probably should go back to school.
Dear barflies,
Like many of you I have been following current developments in Ukraine with keen interest.
Russia has thrown the dice. There is no turning back. They are going for broke because they know that if they lose Russia as we know it will cease to exist.
For Russia this is not some regional conflict. This is not about Donbass or some half hearted pushback against NATO expansion. This is an existential conflict and for sure Russia will do all in its power to come out on top. As they chose the time and place of engaging the West (which is what they do) we can assume that they have thought it out thoroughly and that they have a clear view on what they want to achieve and how they intend to achieve it. Undoubtedly, they have prepared accordingly.
The last 20 years Putin c.s. have proven to be masters of the geopolitical game, turning Russia from a broke ruin of an Empire into a new global power house against the odds. They have proven to be exceedingly smart, cunning, and capable. We can safely assume that they will throw everything they have at the current conflict and we can expect them to operate with intelligence and cunning.
However, this is not what I see when I look at the information sources at my disposal. The more I look at the conflict the more things do not add up. A few points to illustrate what I mean;
– Why is the internet still up in (most parts of) Ukraine?
– Why are the mobile phone networks in Ukraine still functioning?
– Combining the two points above; why do the Russians allow control of the narrative to Ukraine and the West?
– How come that progress of many Russian units is so slow? (Presumably because of lack if fuel and ammunition, bad planning and logistics, superior weaponry donated by the West to Ukraine, strong resistance of Ukrainian militia, removed road signs, etc.)
– How come the Russian army seems to be a bit “clumsy” in their operating? For example having front-to-back packed convoys of dozens of kilometers in enemy territory is beyond dumb.
– How come that we have by now 24/7 “news” coverage of the conflict blasted through the aether by countless anti-Russian news outlets and social media pundits but hardly any information on operational developments, not even from “pro Russian” sources.
– How come Russia almost stoically accepts an increasing barrage of legal, economic and financial sanctions (e.g. expulsion from SWIFT), and pledges of military aid and more to Ukraine from a growing number of (European) countries?
From the little operational information that I found it shows that Russia has only deployed about a 25-30% of the units that they had concentrated at the Ukrainian border before the start of the conflict. It’s airforce seems strangely passive. All elite armoured units are still held back in reserve. Heavy artillery (one of the backbones of the Russian army) has hardly been used. In short Russia has not yet used its iron fist. Why? Obviously because they want to limit civilian casualties and damage to a minimum. Probably because they are not really in a hurry to reach their operational goals. Likely because they want to have a credible deterrent to demotivate any would be interventionists and to put pressure on neighbouring countries.
Thinking about all of the above it occurred to me that Russia might not be operating as clumsily as it seems. What if Putin c.s. are still the smart foxes they have shown themselves to be for so many years? What if they intentially let anti Russian sentiments grow wild in the West (and possibly even lend a helping hand in this perspective) by letting tons of negative news being broadcast from Ukraine? What if they intentionally give the impression of a less than optimal military performance in Ukraine? What if they intentionally react mutely, and thus weak, to the barrage of sanctions imposed by the West?
Living in Western Europe I am amazed how quickly anti Russian (especially anti Putin) sentiment is reaching fever pitch levels; ever more and tougher sanctions on Russia, all of a sudden everyone wants to dramatically increase defence budgets (as if the West in not already spending 10 times more on “defence” than Russia), everyone wants to choke and kill Russia and Putin c.s. in particular. The politicians seem to be feeding on their own propaganda (drinking their own Cool Aid as Americans say) and swallowing it hook, line and sinker.
But what if the Russians intend to lure these politicians in and commit themselves to the strictest and toughest anti-Russian policies. What if the Russians intend the Western politicians to choose sides and to become de facto hostile to Russia for the whole world to see?
If this would turn into reality Russia would be fully in its right to:
– suspend delivery of all goods to hostile nations
– require payment for goods through their own or Chinese payment system in Rubles or Yuan, or in bullion, or else not deliver anything
– militarily support any faction and country hostile to Western interests
– also become personal and wash many a Western poilitician’s dirty linen in public. I am sure Russian intelligence has more than enough dirt on a good number of Western leaders. Joe Biden comes to mind…
There is nothing the European countries, NATO, or the US could do about it. They will have already exhausted all possibilities of sanctioning Russia and they lack the military means to subjugate Russia.
It would result in the swift economic collapse of Europe. Without just energy from Russia it is game over for Europe. And if carried out in synch with other mayor players like China and Iran, with whom they have surely discussed these issues in detail, it could very well result in the collapse of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. This would mean the end of the US as a global super power.
Also, if food exports from Ukraine and Russia, the bread baskets of and from Europe, do not reach the Middle East or North Africa it will result in massive social instability (think of Egypt, which is heavily dependent on food imports and is already struggling to feed its population). With a little help from Russia and allies this could easily lead to whole new string of “color revolutions”.
The Western world, up to the neck in debt, as opposed to Russia and China, will not be able to gain access to sufficient alternative (energy) sources in time, let alone be able to pay for them. Soaring inflation, industries grinding to a halt, massive poverty, cold nights, and even hunger may very well be what is in store for Europe. Nothing devides more than hunger and it could easily spell the end of the European Union and probably NATO.
Devided and impoverished, without financial carrots and a big military stick the Western world may very well find itself relegated to the fringes of world affairs. The center of the world would, once again, shift towards Asia.
Could it be that this is the strategic goal of Russia?
Could it be that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a trap?
Posted by: Michael | Mar 1 2022 22:04 utc | 247
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