Disarming Ukraine - Day 6
Just a few points (which I may add to later on):
- Russia's military operational security seems to work well as little is leaking out about the positions of its forces.
- Mariupol in the south is now encircled. The Ukraine has lost all access to the sea of Azov.
- After a warning that it would attack 'psychological operation' infrastructure in Kiev a Russian plane bombed the electricity substation that feeds the studios and media centers around the TV-tower of Kiev.
Denis Kazakiewicz @Den_2042 - 4:01 PM · Mar 1, 2022
You cannot make this stuff up.
At today's security council meeting, Lukashenka - while lying about “surgical operation” - showed what looks like an actual invasion map.
bigger
Lukashenko has not been a quite successful president of Belarus for 26 years because he is dumb. If you believe that the picture shows the actual plan you probably should go back to school.
Posted by b on March 1, 2022 at 17:14 UTC | Permalink
next page »Is Zelenski going to be the new crisis actor in a government in exile? It is starting to look like a relity
Posted by: circumspect | Mar 1 2022 17:20 utc | 2
some strange news from russian sources today...zelenski will remain president?? wtf??
https://t.me/denatofication/274
Posted by: denazi | Mar 1 2022 17:23 utc | 3
thanks for the update b...
the propaganda is relentless as witnessed in the commentary @ 1...
@ 2 zelensky seems to be the right type of character for any hollywood dynamics that the usa always favour...
a poster on the previous thread left this link which seems to give some interesting updates -
https://t.me/s/QVINTAAETAS/
Posted by: james | Mar 1 2022 17:25 utc | 4
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba, at the latter's request, CCTV reports.
https://twitter.com/shen_shiwei/status/1498650301145907201
Posted by: too scents | Mar 1 2022 17:25 utc | 5
Oil Stockpile Withdrawals
Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, The International Energy Agency (IEA) - which represents key industrialized consumers including Japan and Germany - has agreed to deploy 60 million barrels from stockpiles around the world.
Such a release from world stockpiles seems premature.
1) We have yet to see RF response to Western sanctions.
2) I suspect RF will refuse energy exports to nations which are no longer neutral. This will include all states shipping weapons to Ukraine: Germany, UK, Poland, Latvia, Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark. I am sure there are some states missing from this list.
3) I suspect RF will allow Brandon to go on the record with a self-congratulatory State of the Union address and then announce counter sanctions which will include the termination of all pipeline energy flows due to force majure.
4) The uncertainty created by the announcement of such sanctions will drive Brent to $120 a bbl. Possibly higher. And for a longer term.
5) Once western nations have an opportunity to calculate the economic costs and inform their citizens of these impacts, I expect we will see a significant rise in public awareness and discontent with the actions of the elites.
6) Arguing for military action against RF does nothing to alleviate the potential economic impact of curtailed energy supply. Bombing RF infrastructure simply results in an inability to restore the curtailed supply. Restoring RF supply after infrastructure destruction will require significant inputs of dollars, steel, and engineering talent i.e. boots on the ground. Contemplate a Western advance on Moscow in the face of General Winter 2023. I am sure the US Woke battalions will demand pink mukluks for the long cold march East. You cannot drive if you lack oil and gas.
Posted by: Sushi | Mar 1 2022 17:27 utc | 6
Everything will be decided through negotiations, HOWEVER, the longer they go on the stronger Russia's position will be.
Posted by: MikeO | Mar 1 2022 17:29 utc | 7
Perspective of an Indian Army General
Major General of the Indian Army, hero of the Kargil War Gagan Diep Bakshi gave an exhaustive answer about the situation in Ukraine:
“Sorry, but this is an incredibly immoral act on the part of the United States and the entire West: first to train Ukraine to confront Russia, and then say “we will not come to the rescue, we will impose sanctions.” Now they are saying “ok, we will send the Stingers and Javelins”, but this is a defensive weapon!
As a result, it is already too late to do something - there is already a war! Where are these weapons delivered? Through seaports? Russia blocked all ports. They cannot be delivered by air - the S-400 and S-500 will smash everything. There remains a land route, but as soon as the cargo crosses the Ukrainian border, they will be bombed!
That is, all this is just an attempt by the West to delay the end of the war for months, if not until the end of the year. All this will deal a terrible blow to the global economy, which has just begun to recover from the pandemic! The price of oil is already above $100 and continues to rise, it will be an economic disaster for the whole world - and this is what the West wants?
They want to fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian, for me it is incredibly immoral. This is an unequal fight. Yes, it's bold, I'm impressed [by the Ukrainians], but one pretty model posing with an AK will have more of a stage effect, because the AK won't help against tanks! Please understand this.
SOURCE:
https://youtu.be/BOkn3l7mddc
Also found on Cassad's Telegram channel
Posted by: Sushi | Mar 1 2022 17:30 utc | 8
How many westerners really understand the meaning of Maskirovka and its extent?
Does Ukraine have any air force left? I've not seen any evidence to suggest it's still operational, but some sources such as Pat Lang seem to think it's a threat to the Russians. Is this perhaps because they've seen nothing that resembles an American SEAD operation where aircraft take several days to destroy the enemy's air defences. Perhaps the Russians did something very similar using a large number of missiles rather than aircraft, so what would take several days of repeated sorties by aircraft actually took place in minutes after much planning.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 1 2022 17:39 utc | 9
Dimitry Orlov is interviewed on YouTube regarding this Intervention.
Security Concerns are the Operational Guidelines; and predicts UKR-2021 being split up for good.
He's Brutal over GBR's Tuss and other "Unqualified Token" EU/NATO Officials.
I enjoyed the Objective Review of the Strategy Russia may most likely engaged in pursuing.
Posted by: IronForge | Mar 1 2022 17:45 utc | 10
For anyone interested in the best STIREPs with least bias check Stelkovs Telegram channel, he gives daily updates. The Saker for example is much to optimistic (e.g. he claimed days ago Ukraines Donbass army would be soon caught in cauldron), and the rest of the information space is filled with ludacris Ukranian propaganda.
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
BTW: The only online analyst who was right and exactly predicted this, was Anatoly Karlin: https://akarlin.substack.com/
Posted by: DontBelieveEitherPr. | Mar 1 2022 17:46 utc | 11
On the previous thread, I linked to and commented upon this Global Times editorial, which IMO provides a POV and info of import which is why I'm commenting and linking it again, but not repeating my previous commentary.
“This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon,Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.” Gen W. Clark
TPTB Are All Following the 'Same Plan' - Taking Control Of The Middle East Oil Supply & Pipeline Networks.
America Is Bankrupt - 29 Trillion National Debt???
“Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control the people.” — Henry Kissinger
Which Is the Reason Why Russia Now Backs Syria & China Now Backs Iran To Counter That Move - Welcome To WW3.
Posted by: JohnF | Mar 1 2022 17:50 utc | 14
RF Counter-sanctions
2. The Government of the Russian Federation will soon present various measures to support the economy, as well as outline the contours of response measures, which will now be not only symmetrical, but also asymmetric, which will de facto be aimed at causing direct damage to hostile states.
SOURCE:
Google translation from Colonelcassad
https://t.me/boris_rozhin
Posted by: Sushi | Mar 1 2022 17:50 utc | 15
ASB Military News, [Mar 1, 2022 at 11:53:56 AM]:
Russian nuclear submarines have sailed off for drills in the Barents Sea near the Arctic and mobile nuclear missile launchers are roaming Siberia. — AP
This is sourced from AP, so I would like to see it confirmed. Nuclear submarine drills and mobile nuclear launch drills are imo not a good sign if accurate. Russia is giving clear signals to US/UK to back down, but everywhere I see only escalation.
Posted by: WJ | Mar 1 2022 17:57 utc | 16
regarding the OP,
in the satellite age there is no such thing as any meaningful 'operational security' of hardware. the skies are all-seeing.
as to whether it is or isn't the 'invasion map,' well, look at it. That doesn't look like much of an intelligence leak to me lol. Besides, any real invasion map became obsolete days ago, and NATO had already gamed-out a few of their own maps weeks ago. Invading Ukraine isn't rocket science. It's just the taking of an inventory of both sides and the application of common sense.
War is a dynamic.
Posted by: reante | Mar 1 2022 17:58 utc | 17
Can't you just see the positions from satellite images? Their forces are big convoys, not individual fighters hiding in the mountains. Because of that, Lukashenko's map is not that big a deal. The map did not look much different from the map that BBC News uses.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Mar 1 2022 17:59 utc | 18
Some tough questions for Boris, looking a little more frazzled than usual. The Ukrainian lady pushes all the buttons...
Posted by: dh | Mar 1 2022 18:06 utc | 19
"Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." — Ernest Hemingway.
Posted by: michaelj72 | Mar 1 2022 18:07 utc | 20
>>>>: denazi | Mar 1 2022 17:23 utc | 3
zelenski will remain president?? wtf??
Why not? Who could do a better job than him? Yanukovych?
With the Azov Battalions and their fellow travellers eliminated, he could do what he was elected to do, bring peace rather than do what the ultranationalists want him to do. The only real problem is the de-Nazification of western Ukraine. But a ceasefire with Russian military police allowed to de-Nazify could be made to work
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 1 2022 18:10 utc | 21
b has lost it. gone mad along with the many commenters here. Too bad. The two wrongs make a right is sickness. Groveling to the Putins and oligarchs. Shame on you all.
Posted by: Jak Siemasz | Mar 1 2022 18:11 utc | 22
Well, the empire's media seems to be really effective in it's anti-Russia propganda. Just listened to one of our most progressive radio shows, and they're spouting the same crap as the rest of our corporate media. "It's all Putin's fault, he's a monster.
Not a mention about anything prior to the invasion. Crickets, nothing..
I'll repeat my position; If NATO would have responded to Russia's LEGITMATE security concerns, this incident would never have taken place. The empire & NATO's hubris own this incident, totally..
Posted by: vetinLA | Mar 1 2022 18:12 utc | 23
I gotta wonder if this war is coincidental with big changes in global finance and banking. Jaime Dimon (biggest bank on earth) said SWIFT can be avoided by a simple email and purchase instructions. Thinking about it, I don't see why not.
When this is all over, Russia can send thank you notices to BP, Volvo and any others for giving them factories for almost free.
Still waiting for the cauldron to close. That's how things ended in 2014 at Debaltsevo. Bring it on.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 1 2022 18:13 utc | 24
In these tense days, I offer the bar a young lass doing what I believe to be an excellent cover of an old classic.
Enjoy
Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Mar 1 2022 18:13 utc | 25
Sometimes courts choose not to mete out punishment for crimes if the attendant circumstances are sufficiently extenuating.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2022 18:13 utc | 26
I anticipate that the Russians are going to use their response to the veg-loaf's freaky speech tonite to announce economic counter-sanctions, which I hope will include cutting the gas flow to old Europe.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 1 2022 18:13 utc | 27
Jak Siemasz | Mar 1 2022 18:11 utc | 23
"The two wrongs make a right is sickness."
Indeed, two wrongs don't make a right.
But the much-belated Russian response to extreme provocations and existential threats isn't a wrong, it's right.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 1 2022 18:16 utc | 28
@ Jak Siemasz
Poland is not yet lost, but it's oddly gratifying to watch as Poland keeps trying to lose.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2022 18:18 utc | 29
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 1 2022 18:19 utc | 30
Zelensky and his cohorts are trying to milk this crisis as much as possible. First they are demanding an acceptance into the EU as a matter of urgency. The EU says it's considering the application. I like that, let's see how the EU walks the talk. Also they are asking that their external debts be written off, because of the damage done to their infrastructure by Russia. I like that too, let the West pay for the looting of the Ukrainian resources by its oligarchy. Who can argue that EU and the collective West is not reaping the fruits of their efforts?
Posted by: Steve | Mar 1 2022 18:20 utc | 31
Eighthman | Mar 1 2022 18:13 utc | 25
"When this is all over, Russia can send thank you notices to BP, Volvo and any others for giving them factories for almost free."
Not to mention Disney, Netflix and other vectors of Sodom-and-Gomorrah's anti-cultural decadence voluntarily ending their war of cultural destruction against the Russian culture and mind. Maybe even Putin didn't anticipate that fringe benefit.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 1 2022 18:22 utc | 32
Short of direct war, the west has already climbed to the top of its escalatory ladder, perhaps in expectation that the "international community" would unite in the complete isolation of Russia completing the process of bestowing "pariah" status. The essential mediocrity of the west's nominal leadership* is yet again exposed, and the reality of that is the true danger in this situation.The next phase is an all-of-society mobilization for WW3, amidst assurances that there is no intention to actually fight WW3 in the traditional sense. Sullivan today was insisting USA was in control and capable of a "two-front" conflict based on Ukraine and Taiwan, but not sure these people are capable of running a school district let alone an international crisis.
* as far as mediocrity goes, cannot believe that Canada's Deputy PM would allow herself to be standing anywhere near a OUN banner, let alone be photographed handling it, let alone publishing the photo on social media.
Posted by: jayc | Mar 1 2022 18:22 utc | 33
b writes:
Russia's military operational security seems to work well as little is leaking out about the positions of its forces.
But what about the miles of Convoy heading to Kiev?!
Someone please help me with this question. I already commented on this issue on another thread here, generally speaking. However, today, I was reminded of it, when a US general talking head pointed on the map of Ukraine to the kilometres-long Russian Convoy headed to Kiev. The general stated that if the US were involved militarily, that Convoy would already have been obliterated. He added that the Convoy is a Sitting Duck and should the Ukrainians still possess the drones Turkey supplied they can use them to take out strategic parts of the Convoy.
Now I know that Russia's Ministry of Defense stated that Russia presently has air superiority, but what if Ukraine still possesses hidden aircraft or drones? How can Russia be sure that the Convoy will not be attacked? How can the Russian military be sure that drones from an unidentified foreign actor don't enter from say Poland or Slovakia and strike the Convoy in the middle of the night?
Every time I see that Convoy, I have such a sinking feeling that someone's plotting to take aim at that Convoy. It just appears like such an easy target.
Please remove all doubt from my mind with regards to the security of this very strategic convoy that appears to be in the headspace crosshairs of USNATO.
So if there's any expert on this thread can you please explain to me the strategy behind how the Convoy is being protected?
Posted by: Circe | Mar 1 2022 18:23 utc | 34
Russia is currently testing the efficacy of a thirty-mile truck convoy deep into enemy territory.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 1 2022 18:24 utc | 35
Can someone confirm that nearly all of the world’s neon is produced between Ukraine and Russia, and that 90% of the US supply comes from a single factory in Odessa?
Neon is used for lasers used for microchip etching. I’m sure there is some alternative, but this would likely involve retooling all manufacturing processes.
Doesn’t this this mean Russia controls who can make microchips? So checkmate or is the west going back to 1950s era computing?
If true, I would then guess that this is a reason you don’t let humanities majors make globally vital decisions over engineers, scientists, or random people with IQs over 100.
Posted by: Krungle | Mar 1 2022 18:25 utc | 36
whether or not the regime-change meme that is now quickly gaining traction was originally seeded or not by the British 'slip of the tongue' is an obvious misdirection play. Part of cracking the Code is remember that the first fundamental of the art of war against the People is... the first fundamental of the 'The Art of War:'
ALL WARFARE IS BASED ON DECEPTION.
As WJ alluded to the other day regarding 1984: BLACK IS WHITE and UP IS DOWN.
This is not a regime change operation against Russia. If that was possible then Russia never would have invaded in the first place, because Putin's not an idiot. You can't goad Putin and the Russian intelligence services into effectively regime-changing themselves. That's not a reality-based analysis because Russia wasn't in mortal danger in the first place, because it's loaded to the gills with ICBMs pointed at Langley.
What this IS, is another classic misdirection play. Putin's not going anywhere. It's the West that's getting regime-changed here.
You heard it here first.
Remember, we're in a Sea Change here.
Posted by: reante | Mar 1 2022 18:26 utc | 37
Herr Schid fm germany, tell me please a list of the Russian acts of imperialism since mordern Russia started to exist in 1991.
I would be glad to show you one of the German active support and participation in the other-side-of-the-Atlantic real thing.
By the way, are you now liberated from your culpability complex?
It has been so useful to third parties while you maintained it... is it now german usefulness deriving from the other way round ?
Journalists Martin Summers appeared on RT and said that it had been proven in a court case that Nato death squads carried out the atrocities at Maidan square (Ukraine) in 2014. I had a wee search and can't find anything on it.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 1 2022 18:30 utc | 40
Eighthman 25,
you make a great point regarding the energy divestments. They represent the inevitable paperwork that comes with the horse trades. Horses are often owned by more than one person, and not all owners attend the trade in person. Russia's oil and gas is now Russia's alone.
Posted by: reante | Mar 1 2022 18:35 utc | 41
@Ghost Ship | Mar 1 2022 18:10 utc | 22
I agree. Letting Zelensky continue on as President would potentially be a brilliant move, especially considering the hero worship he's been receiving from the Western MSM. In fact, at the risk of sounding way out there, I wouldn't be shocked if this has already been covertly worked out between Putin and Zelensky in advance of the invasion.
Zelensky was after all elected to end the war in the Donbass and make peace with Russia. Even if he had wanted to, he couldn't have given that virtually all of the rest of Ukraine's power structure was in the hands of anti-Russia factions.
Of course, this all assumes that Zelensky really meant what he said while campaigning for President.
Posted by: Boogity | Mar 1 2022 18:41 utc | 42
Posted by: DontBelieveEitherPr. | Mar 1 2022 17:46 utc | 12
Seems you don't know this Strelkov is considered the founding father of the breakaway province of Donbass back in 2014. He rallied the people to resist the new nazi govt formed in Kiev, went back to Russia to convinced arsenals holding old Soviet military gear to release to the rebels, organised military gear, uniforms, rations, medical. Even got tens of thousands of real Russian volunteers streaming to defend the new republics.
There really wasn't any official Russian involvement.
They beat back the first attack and Minsk Accord was negotiated which the Nazis promptly broke because they got heavy support of NATO, including embedded commanders and new infantry equipment.
Then the cauldrons caught the invading Nazis who were obliterated by Russian MRLNs and heavy artillery fire from across the border. That's the only official Russian support. Minsk2 was signed and Strelkov was pissed because he envisioned fully liberating up to the borders of the province, which is what Russia is doing now! The Nazis were totally beaten and demoralised.
He was ordered by Putin to return to Moscow and pretty much stayed low profile until now.
So he has a chip on his shoulder today and pisses on Putin because Putin is now doing what Strelkov was set to do back in 2015.
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 1 2022 18:41 utc | 43
What happened to Von der Leyen's promise to shut down RT and Sputnik? There were some issues, but now things seem to work again?
Did someone tell this unelected creature that freedom of the press is supposed to be a cornerstone of democracy, or did she just prove her incompetence yet again?
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 1 2022 18:43 utc | 44
This place is now ukroinfested. Just look at those links to Bojo and zelensky cries. Disgusting
Posted by: ben | Mar 1 2022 18:43 utc | 45
Wow so the Russian convoy is basically lost in the middle of Ukranian backroads and basically sitting ducks??? Hope is not true because this would mean Russia is finished. What an utter disaster this would be.
Posted by: comandante | Mar 1 2022 18:44 utc | 46
We access the news that is not yet blocked in N.A.
If there were any doubts, settle in and be comfortable:
As I write, 9 hrs ago, Tuesday March 1, 2022
Russian Armed Forces Will Continue Ukraine Op Until They Achieve Their Goals, Shoigu Says
https://sputniknews.com/20220301/russian-armed-forces-will-continue-ukraine-op-until-they-achieve-their-goals-shoigu-says-1093476022.html
[.]The main goal of the Russian military operation in Ukraine is the defence of the country against a military threat created by the West, and Russian forces will continue the mission until they reach their stated aims of demilitarising and denazifying the country, defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said.
Speaking at a briefing Tuesday, Shoigu said that the Russian military was not out to "occupy" Ukrainian territory, and emphasised that troops were doing everything possible to preserve the lives of civilians, including by limiting strikes only to military objects using precision weapons.[.]
Prof: Russian Spec Op to De-Militarise & De-Nazify Ukraine Fully Justified Under International Law
https://sputniknews.com/20220301/prof-russian-spec-op-to-de-militarise--de-nazify-ukraine-fully-justified-under-international-law-1093469037.html
"President Putin's special military operation to defend the people of Donbass from an imminent general offensive by the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev not only is it fully justified in international law by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, but it is fully consistent with the military praxis and doctrine of the legitimate self-defence of States in the face of an imminent threat emanating from a neighbouring state or enemy forces," says Heinz Dieterich, director of the Centre for Transition Sciences (CTS) at the Autonomous Metropolitan University in Mexico City, and coordinator at the World Advanced Research Project (WARP).
The US and its NATO allies have been enlarging their military bloc towards Russia's borders for almost 30 years, despite Washington and other Western European states' commitment to the Soviet Union to not expand it either formally or informally to the East, according to the professor. [.]
Taxpayers $$$ flushed. Ukraine Ask Creditors to Write Off Its $57 Billion Debt.
Sanctions and jaw exercising are all they have in their tool box
Oh my, The fall out. Finnair and Nokian
Barely a day after the EU banned all Russian planes from its airspace, Moscow responded in kind, barring carriers from 36 countries, including all 27 EU members.
The flag carrier's share price fell by more than one fifth (20.3 percent) on Monday alone, as Moscow's decision forced Finnair's lucrative Asian routes to make long, costly detours.However, Nokian Tyres, which makes 80 percent of its tyres in Russia, became the biggest loser of the day on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, as its stock price fell by 21.1 percent and the company announced it was shifting some product lines away from Russia.[.]
https://sputniknews.com/20220301/finnair-nokian-tyres-plunge-amid-anti-russia-sanctions-over-ukraine-special-op-1093471059.html
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 1 2022 18:45 utc | 47
Also a few thoughts:
I find the situation extremely upsetting and alarming.
-The fact that Europe has united against Russia in this way, means the US has achieved its strategic objective of first pitting Ukraine, and now all of Europe, as its battering ram against Russia, so it can now focus on China.
All this will achieve is weaken Europe and strengthen China.
Well played EU leaders again... truly a bunch of feckless traitors if there ever was one. Most worrying is the level of brainwashing that will make impossible any kind of reconciliation to reintegrate any EU-Russian trade, which is crucial to European strength and stability.
-Irony of all ironies, the German Greens' support for war on Russia, will only serve to make its economy more reliant on more polluting Coal, Nuclear and US LNG over Russian gas, not to mention, weaken its economy and any competitive edge it had left.
-Of particular concern are announcements of weapon deliveries to Ukraine. How exactly will these be provided, and to what extent can they not expect to be bombed or intercepted by Russian once over the border? Surely not a well thought out strategy. I am glad to hear Ursula and Borrell's NATO planes donated to Ukraine will never be used, that was utterly ludicrous. One also hopes much of the weapons supplies fanfare is just political grandstanding that will run into the realities of world war III vetos by competent generals long before it becomes operational.
-"Russia's military operational security seems to work well as little is leaking out about the positions of its forces."
EU has set up a satellite intelligence safely on the opposite side of Europe... i don't know operationally how effective it may be, but presumably, most of NATO's C4ISR capabilities are still at UAF's disposal, which must surely include Russian troops locations and force disposition. (btw, Saker and Martyanov have been strangely quiet since that start of the largest event they could ever have dreamed for, as far as digesting the subject matter and viewership is concerned at least anyway..)
-Ordinary Russian must be wondering whether it is all worth it, as they watch their savings and their nation's treasure disappear along with all hopes they had of enjoying a 'normal' European life. I hope they won't have to suffer too badly and the world will be somehow be able to understand and look past this dark chapter, if none else, just for its own good.
Posted by: Et Tu | Mar 1 2022 18:45 utc | 48
PREDICTION ON THE FURURE OF UKRAINE (March 1, 2014)
I posted this on Facebook on March 1, 2014, along with a photo of the Russian flag on the roof of the Kharkov central administrative building. Unfortunately Facebook removed the post an hour ago for "promoting suicide". Here is a copy on my blog.
My predictions from this morning. (March 1, 2014)
Arseniy Yatsenyuk ("Yats") will be the first one to flee Kiev. He will be rewarded with a nice teaching job at the Harvard University, the home of the Holodomor hoax.
Both Dmitro Yarosh and Andriy Parubiy will have their brains blasted out with head shots.
Dmitro Yarosh will be eliminated by Russian Spetsnaz with a Dragunov sniper rifle from 900 meters.
Andriy Parubiy will be executed for treason by a fellow Nazi. The weapon of choice will be a Luger P08 pistol from the 1942 production run.
Oleh Tyahnybok will get the Ambassadorial Benghazi treatment – butt-raped by an angry mob. He might survive.
Yulia Tymoshenko will become president of Rumpistan. She will try to promote good economic relations with Russia.
Vitali Klitschko will become best friends with Nikolai Valuev. They will go on a World Tour together, promoting peace, boxing, and friendship between nations.
Novorossiya will become a part of the Eurasian Union. Initially it will call itself “Ukraine” and claim legal succession from the failed state by the same name. It will take responsibility for Ukraine's debt to Russia. The capital city will be moved to Kharkov.
Transnistria will become a part of Novorossiya.
The Crimea will become an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation.
Zakarpattia Oblast in the west will become an integral part of the Russian Federation, ruled directly from Moscow. It will however not join the Russian economic area or customs union, but receive a special status in the European Economic Area, with free movement of people and capital. It will most likely adopt the Euro.
Sumy Oblast may join Russia directly.
Rumpistan will have to clean up its own mess, with or without its Nazis. In the end, no one may want Banderastan. The US may adopt it as an al-Qaeda training base.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 1 2022 18:46 utc | 49
Just sending out another "Thank you!" to the folks who responded to my request on the other thread.
Nothing more.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 1 2022 18:46 utc | 50
Re: SWIFT
Considering the huge number of people who claim to be pro-capitalist, it sure is amazing how few of them know anything about capitalism. "The Market" wants Russia's energy, but it has to pay for it. SWIFT isn't an essential part of that payment. It is just a convenience; a quick and simple way to settle financial transactions that lots of banks are accustomed to working with. On the technical side of things replacing SWIFT is no more involved than installing a different app on your smartphone. The only thing keeping people from changing up to now has been institutional inertia. Why change something that is working? Why fix something that isn't broken?
Well, now SWIFT is broken. Now SWIFT doesn't work. When a business wants to buy a hundred $million in Russian gas they will have to find an alternative to SWIFT, as will banks that want to get their cut of that transaction. The profits are enough to make the slight inconvenience of working through a new settlement procedure worthwhile, and when that alternative to SWIFT is in place then there is no going back; the institutional inertia will be broken. The choice between using SWIFT or the alternative to settle transactions will then just be a matter of preference or procedure.
At the end of the day, the drive for profits always prevails in capitalism, no matter how shrill the nationalist screaming becomes.
Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 1 2022 18:47 utc | 51
@ comandante | Mar 1 2022 18:44 utc | 47
because this would mean Russia is finished
I can't tell from here whether it's your hair or your pants on fire.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2022 18:47 utc | 52
You cannot liberate your brothers if they do not want to be liberated.
Posted by: schkid | Mar 1 2022 17:20 utc | 1
Really? You thought you can kill people in the Donbass for 8 years and nothing is going to happen?
Posted by: Passer by | Mar 1 2022 18:50 utc | 53
Destroying the TV Station I don't see the point as fake video images of drones blowing up tank columns can be made anywhere. All it takes are video game graphics and a willing audience unless ... the tower was being used for line of sight control for the Turkish drones.
So I wonder if this was an actual military target and Russia is struggling with the handful of drones left in Ukraine's arsenal. Kiev is well located to be a comm hub.
Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Mar 1 2022 18:51 utc | 54
@William Gruff 51
. . .on SWIFT .. the slight inconvenience of working through a new settlement procedure
Yes, . . .from Jamie Dimon...
In an interview with Bloomberg TV, the CEO of the world's largest bank said that "there are a lot of workarounds for SWIFT, so there are different tools we use for different reasons" adding that “the banks are talking with the government so everyone understands the issues, not because they’re for or against any particular thing."
While SWIFT sanctions mean companies can’t use the messaging system to do business with the Russian entities affected, they can still do business with them, Dimon said. In fact it's as simple as sending an email with payment instructions, because what SWIFT really is, is a messaging remnant from a bygone era, before emails, even before the fax machine. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 1 2022 18:55 utc | 55
@Schkid, #1:
You and I are seeing this event completely different. I see it as Russia demanding national security in reciprocal fashion vis-a-vis NATO/EU, was denied and ridiculed, and took the actions that they said they would. You see this as Russia imposing Russian Imperialism upon Germany/Europe.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2022 18:55 utc | 56
@Jak Siemasz
Poles think they are exceptional, because the US sent some guns there. They haven't even learned the lesson from what is happening in Ukraine before their very eyes.
The Polish gov is creating all the preconditions for a catastrophe to befall them.
They will never learn in my opinion.
Posted by: Idiocrates | Mar 1 2022 18:56 utc | 57
@ Posted by: Circe | Mar 1 2022 18:23 utc | 35
Total Air superiority was established in the first hours of day 1.
Also, Russian battalions are armed with considerable anti air capabilities.
Assuming any plane or airfield is still operational, we are talking about a suicide mission with slim chances of success.
There is no doubt anything headed for that convoy from inside Ukraine would be destroyed immediately, while anything from outside Ukraine would spell the start of WW3.
An that is why we have a convoy.
Posted by: Et Tu | Mar 1 2022 18:56 utc | 58
Russian nuclear missile submarines are now training "operations in stormy weather" - and mobile intercontinental missile launchers are training "how to disguise in the Siberian forest". Nothing to see there, it's just an exercise.
Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Mar 1 2022 18:57 utc | 59
Posted by: Krungle | Mar 1 2022 18:25 utc | 37
Can someone confirm that nearly all of the world’s neon is produced between Ukraine and Russia, and that 90% of the US supply comes from a single factory in Odessa?
The single factory in Odessa is a processing facility. They process a by-product of Russian steel making plants, extract the neon, purify ans sell it.
If Russia curtails exports of the raw input the Odessa factory is kaput.
What this really speaks to is the extremely tight interdependence of all production processes worldwide. In a response to another poster I remarked that the present circumstance represents the failure testing of a non-engineered complex system. It is not until you test this system, and watch as it breakdown, that you become aware of all of the intricate dependencies.
When the breakdown commences there exists no degree of resilience. This is a characteristic of human engineered complex systems. They break, fail to recover, and keep on breaking.
Posted by: Sushi | Mar 1 2022 18:58 utc | 60
@Petri Krohn | Mar 1 2022 18:46 utc | 49
I think you had most things spelled out from the outset! Now please, tell us what the next few weeks will bring us...
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 1 2022 18:59 utc | 61
With nearly ev'ryone who dares tweet in Canada is demanding "divestment" from ev'rything Russian, including my native Province's government pension fund, nobody bothers to explain how, exactly, such transactions would work in the status quo.
Posted by: Laurence | Mar 1 2022 19:00 utc | 63
Posted by: Circe | Mar 1 2022 18:23 utc | 35
RF has mobile AA systems. Pantsir is one such system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system
Posted by: Sushi | Mar 1 2022 19:01 utc | 64
Steve 32,
Zelensky couldn't be a more obvious handpicked crisis actor. His dad is the head of a university department that is probably involved in computational intelligence, which is part of the same university that is presumably the biggest Ukrainian pipeline for intelligence services. His grandfather was in the Red Army.
Putin's stated target is the Ukrainian nationalists and Ukraine's military infrastructure. And it does look like Zelensky will be staying.
Ukraine is on the receiving end of an early spring cleaning. Pound for pound it has the best farmland in the world. And it has crucial pipelines. And it has a nuclear power industry that is falling apart. And there are Ukrainian 'Taliban' afoot, that no longer serve the purpose of creating a pretext for this war theater.
Loose ends.
This is War Theater, because the elites need to batten down the hatches and tie up loose ends for the Collapse. They're doing themselves a favor and, by extension, doing us all a favor. So try not to complain too much!
Posted by: reante | Mar 1 2022 19:04 utc | 65
Several observations by people i found on the net:
"Observation from a chat I'm in: Western Whites are by far the most Russia-hating demographic on the planet."
"The administrator of the Vladimir Putin Fan Club on Facebook: Today we have received about one thousand posts. We also received a lot of hate mail. All the hate comes from North European Westerners, while the support comes from the third world and Southern Europe, the Global South."
Posted by: Passer by | Mar 1 2022 19:05 utc | 66
Don Bacon 39 "Lang has more on the (stalled?) convoy here"
I see the clown gets his news from the 'Telegraph'. At the moment so much shit, so many fake pics are posted in the western propaganda machine that it is best just to wait.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 1 2022 19:05 utc | 67
Heard what seems a sensible suggestion -
Russia should make international transactions in gold only.
Set price in gold.
Posted by: jared | Mar 1 2022 19:06 utc | 68
@michaelj72, #21:
I agree with Hemmingway, but the question is: when the war starts? In my view, the war against Russia started in 2014.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2022 19:07 utc | 69
@Republicofscotland 41
You can download a full text pdf on:The “Snipers’ Massacre” on the Maidan in Ukraine here
This academic investigation concludes that the massacre was a false flag operation, which was rationally planned and carried out with a goal of the overthrow of the government and seizure of power. It found various evidence of the involvement of an alliance of the far right organizations, specifically the Right Sector and Svoboda, and oligarchic parties, such as Fatherland. Concealed shooters and spotters were located in at least 20 Maidan-controlled buildings or areas.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 1 2022 19:10 utc | 71
you can't really collapse the economy of a net exporter so simply, you can devalue the currency, but that again is a brief disruption only for a net exporting sovereign currency.
Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 1 2022 19:11 utc | 72
Krungle | Mar 1 2022 18:25 utc | 37
I read about that a week or so back in some industry article. Yank government was working with industry to find other sources of those sorts of things. The gas is a byproduct of steel making and Russia sent it to Ukraine for refining. I guess the steel smelters and the refinery were set up for the gas in soviet times.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 1 2022 19:11 utc | 73
Oh, by the way, I also believe the war against China started in 1996 when the Empire started encouraging (and enabling) Taiwan independence. Physical aspects of that war could start any day, at China's urge and convenience.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2022 19:11 utc | 74
Can’t understand the fascination with the convoy?
First, there is no way Russian Federation would send a convoy that large unless they were reasonably sure the route was safe….yes, it is a shooting police action, so stuff happens. But with comtrol of the air and the ground along the route I’m sure they are watching for any signs of any enemy action and they also have assets dedicated to securing the convoy.
Pat Lang says it is stopped, held up? That happens to convoys all the time in the military during fighting. They might be resting and or refueling (even small military vehicles get poor mileage, baring in the teens). Maybe the advanced scouts do see something that could be an issue, or they are trying to find a better/quicker route to travel? Their could be any number of reasons why, so it shows good disciple they have stopped.
As far as a dead Russian - really, with all the misinformation who knows. Nearly every image shown of damage or disables equipment has proven to be Ukes, as the vehicle identification shown in the images is too small to be real, it would only work if it was big enough to be seen from a distance. Same with the pictures of dead or captured troops - don’t see any are bands on them, which means that aren’t Russian cause you don’t go into enemy territory without an easy way to who is who.
Posted by: drshivago | Mar 1 2022 19:12 utc | 75
"Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." — Ernest Hemingway.Posted by: michaelj72 | Mar 1 2022 18:07 utc | 21
Conversely, although all war is a crime, sometimes it is necessary and justified.
Russia didn't enter this lightly. Compare her behavior to that of my country, the USA, which compulsively wages war on the flimsiest of pretexts, and often on no pretext at all.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2022 19:12 utc | 76
Hey Don, 73, where's Jack Ruby when you need him, eh?
Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 1 2022 19:12 utc | 77
With nearly ev'ryone who dares tweet in Canada is demanding "divestment" from ev'rything Russian, including my native Province's government pension fund, nobody bothers to explain how, exactly, such transactions would work in the status quo.
Posted by: Laurence | Mar 1 2022 19:00 utc | 62
-----
Nobody in the West will buy any Russian stocks in fear of being sanctioned and not getting out again. So that leaves other parts of the world that will ask for a nice premium. When the stocks still have the same or even higher value (eg gazrpom stocks), the one that is losing out is the seller. If you are outside of the West, you can make tons of money now.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 1 2022 19:14 utc | 78
There is no doubt anything headed for that convoy from inside Ukraine would be destroyed immediately, while anything from outside Ukraine would spell the start of WW3.
An that is why we have a convoy.
Posted by: Et Tu | Mar 1 2022 18:56 utc | 57
This convoy is like an open jar of cookies the US will find very tempting. Has it been left out on the counter on purpose?
Posted by: WJ | Mar 1 2022 19:16 utc | 79
Jak Siemasz, #23:
So, in your logic, when one does wrong the other side just throw up their hands and said we surrender.
Sorry, I couldn't agree.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2022 19:16 utc | 80
Krungle @37--
I do take umbrage at your comment regarding humanities majors, which includes historians like myself. IMO, the world would be a much better place if those from my discipline inhabited the places of power.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 1 2022 17:39 utc | 10
There's a Telegram channel called Intel Slava Z, controlled/operated by the Russian Military. It's a mix of 'press releases' from the RF mixed in with videos taken from all over the place (in Ukraine), virtually none of attributed but locations kindof identified and a few very useful videos. They keep rolling account of how many military objects have been flattened, here's the latest.
Intel Slava Z, [01/03/2022 12:41]
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️⚡️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed a total of 1,325 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine
Ministry of Defense of Russia
Intel Slava Z, [01/03/2022 12:41]
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️395 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 59 multiple rocket launchers, 179 field artillery pieces and mortars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed
Ministry of Defense of Russia
Posted by: Barofsky | Mar 1 2022 19:18 utc | 82
Re: @44
... No cross border artillery. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Gent bent, Nazi.
... https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2013%3A1-23&version=KJV
Posted by: Laurence | Mar 1 2022 19:19 utc | 83
I must admit, i have never been more scared for my life than after hearing the former whore of Heckler & Koch, Ursula Van der Leyen, make her announcements about EU information and financial war on Russia and especially the unprecedented EU weapons sales to Ukraine, (with proud smiles and enthusiastic clapping to cap it off, with all the gravitas suited to the opening of a new extension wing of her favourite Brussels building).
Luckily, i had forgotten the EU is just a banking and corporate oppression tool which, so far at least, has no actual military significance, and it seems her idiotic virtue signalling ideas have already met with reality, including the galactically imbecilic thought of supplying NATO jets to Ukraine.
Please tell me Ursula, how exactly were you planning on doing that without causing WW3, you irresponsible unelected maggot?
Posted by: Et Tu | Mar 1 2022 19:19 utc | 84
Posted by: augusto | Mar 1 2022 18:28 utc | 40
senor augusto, to be fair, our glorious german reich was also pretty peaceful, too damn peaceful if you ask me, between 1919 and 1938.
and now that i'm here let me strongly object to this russian man taking my speeches, making a few substitutions, and passing them off as his own! that's my material. but as a fellow secret policeman who rose to be the glorious leader of a glorious nation with a cosmic destiny i guess i won't press copyright charges.
Posted by: GhostOfAdolf | Mar 1 2022 19:21 utc | 85
have y'all seen the "blogtracker" or whatever the website rating service is, says MoonofAlabama is 40% reliable but zero found false stories; lol Also says you're pretty hard left, I'm not sure if that's true or what the spectrum actually is; the Democrats skew right of Center so, I'm not sure that means much in terms of foreign policy.
Posted by: ScottinDallas | Mar 1 2022 19:21 utc | 86
@ karlof1 | Mar 1 2022 19:16 utc | 80:
It all depends on the quality of the humanities education, the presence or absence of a sense of morals/ethics in the consciousness of the graduate, and of course a huge dollop of Socratic wisdom.
As someone with multiple humanities degrees myself, I tend to side with Krungle and Martyanov. One honestly has to swim against the academic tide to get a decent humanities education in the USA.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2022 19:21 utc | 87
2 interesting developments. 1. Looks like EU will welcome Ukraine in their membership. 2. RT says Kyiv is considering a pre-emptive strike in Belarus. That would mean Belarus would enter the war. Ukraine, being a EU member and attacked by 2 countries. Would give lots of reason for EU to ask NATO to enter the theatre.
Posted by: comandante | Mar 1 2022 19:22 utc | 88
Posted by: comandante | Mar 1 2022 19:22 utc | 87
Ok, Baghdad Bob.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 1 2022 19:24 utc | 89
Posted by: comandante | Mar 1 2022 19:22 utc | 87
Ok, Baghdad Bob.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 1 2022 19:24 utc | 90
William Gruff 51,
Saying that Russia can just use a different application than SWIFT and little will change in the global marketplace is like saying that Joe Rogan can just use a different platform than Spotify and little will change in the podcast marketplace.
Posted by: reante | Mar 1 2022 19:24 utc | 91
@Surferket, #44:
Good post!!! I followed the 2014 events as you did, mostly here at MOV and at Saker's. It was as you summarized here.
Boy, it's awful early in China to sit up and post that comment :-)
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2022 19:25 utc | 93
too scents - 5
This is one of the numerous reasons why Europeans shouldn't be so stupidly gung-ho and jingoistic. Some of them should work hard towards peace and talk both to Zelensky and Putin. We might actually see a situation where China is the go-between and helps to negotiate and bring peace. One of the very last things the West wants to see happening.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Mar 1 2022 19:27 utc | 94
Ukraine wont enter the EU. The EU has a kind of Article 5 NATO statute build in in Art. 42 (7) EU treaty:
If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.
Ukraine in EU would put all EU member states in a war with Russia.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Mar 1 2022 19:27 utc | 95
Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2022 19:07 utc | 68
The war against Russia started in 1945, or possibly 1917. And this of course ignores all the history around "The Great Game" played by that former empire which resulted in the lost column in Afghanistan - the graveyard of empires.
Posted by: vinnieoh | Mar 1 2022 19:27 utc | 96
https://mishtalk.com/economics/first-quarter-gdpnow-forecast-is-zero-percent-and-falling-fast
GDP and personal income are falling. Eventually, being the World Police will get too expensive. Or fail because of crime and riots.
I hope we are more sensitive than during the Vietnam war. It took a lot of pain over time to end that.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 1 2022 19:30 utc | 97
Ghost Ship | Mar 1 2022 17:39 utc | 10
From what I can see of Russian positions in Ukraine, they are well and truly covered by S-300 and S-400 that are most likely still on Russian and Belarus territory. From various video the looks to be Pantsir in Ukraine and no doubt BUK systems would have moved in.
The main issue I can think of would be well camouflaged Ukie artillery units setting ambushes.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 1 2022 19:31 utc | 98
Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Mar 1 2022 18:13 utc | 26
If it's a voice that counts then this one tops:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ0PZRYin2s
Posted by: Seer | Mar 1 2022 19:31 utc | 99
ScottinDallas 71,
Scott, my antagonistic friend, are you listening to yourself? :)
Trade embargos are EXACTLY how you collapse the economy of an exporter.
What you might have said was that you can't collapse an autarky with trade embargos.
Posted by: reante | Mar 1 2022 19:32 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The Russian elite has lost a lot of sympathizers here in Germany with its pan-Russianism. Imperialism is not automatically good if it is Russian imperialism.
You cannot liberate your brothers if they do not want to be liberated. It is not losing the propaganda war they are just losing the hearts of the sympathizers in Ukraina and the West. The russophiles in Germany are lost, I think, for at least one generation.
By the way, the use of „nazism“ in the MoA bubble is the same as of „democracy“ by the West: we bomb them till they are denazified / democratized.
Posted by: schkid | Mar 1 2022 17:20 utc | 1