Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 14, 2022

The 'Frozen Ground Theory' And Other Ukraine War Nonsense

Since October 30 2021 first U.S. and then other 'western' media have been filled with predictions of a Russian war against the Ukraine.

Today David Ignatius, the CIA's spokesperson resident at the Washington Post, makes another dire claim:

The world will be watching in horror if Russia invades Ukraine this week — but just watching. Ukraine will fight alone, as Russian tanks roll across the flat, frozen terrain; precision bombs destroy key targets near Kyiv and other cities; and the country becomes a killing field unlike anything Europe has seen since 1945.
...
U.S. military officials say Putin has sent orders to his commanders to prepare for possible battle by the middle of this week, when the ground in central Ukraine will have frozen more than a foot deep, allowing rapid tank advance.

I found that 'frozen terrain' bullshit annoying enough to look up the weather forecast for Donetzk.


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The day temperatures this week will be consistently above zero degree centigrade. Some mild night frost might freeze over the grass but little below that. It has been the same last week in Donetzk as well as in Kiev, Moscow and Minsk. There is certainly no frozen ground anywhere between those cities.

Alexander Marquardt, currently in the Ukraine on behalf of CNN, confirms that observation:

Alexander Marquardt @MarquardtA 12:14 UTC · Feb 14, 2022

I’m not taking measurements but if you’re into the frozen ground theory, it’s been mostly above freezing for the week I’ve been in central and eastern Ukraine and all the mud I’ve stepped in is squishy.

Ignatius, and the U.S. military officials he claims to have spoken to, are bullshitting and deceiving the public.

They also lack an understanding of geography and history. Their 'frozen ground theory' is based on reading about the famous Pripyat Marshes (also written Pripet or Pinsk) that are hard to cross with tanks unless the ground is deeply frozen:

Known as Pripjet-Sümpfe by the Germans, the wetlands were dreaded by the Wehrmacht troops. During the German invasion of the Soviet Union, the Third Reich armies skirted the wetlands, passing through the north or south of it. However, after the debacle of the Eastern Front in 1944, many retreating units such as the 7th, 35th, 134th and 292nd Infantry Divisions had to cut across the marshy areas. They often needed to build tracks with logs over which they could pull light loads in horse-drawn vehicles.

The Pripyat Marshes do hinder warfare unless the ground is deeply frozen. But they are in southern Belarus and north-west Ukraine.


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The grounds in south-east Ukraine, where a war would most likely play out, are much firmer. They can be crossed by tanks at any time without much problems.

Nonsense is also what Melinda Haring, the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, is producing. Three days ago she predicted a dire weekend:


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Well the weekend has come and is gone. Power and heat in Kiev are on and not one of her predicted incidents has happened. Haring's Twitter profile says that she is:

Trying to nudge history in the right direction.

Nudge, nudge, nudge ... one lie after the other.

Haring has coauthored the Atlantic Council's script, Biden and Ukraine: A strategy for the new administration, which proposed an aggressive anti-Russian plan which the U.S. is now playing along. It was paid for by a Ukrainian oligarch:

Finally, think tanks were contacted more than 1,100 times by Ukraine’s agents, and more than half of these were directed at one in particular: the Atlantic Council. This extraordinary outreach included multiple meetings with Atlantic Council scholars, like ex-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, who has advocated for a more militarized approach to Russia amid the Ukraine crisis. Herbst recently told NPR that President Joe Biden should “send more weapons to Ukraine now. By all means, get additional U.S. and NATO forces up along Russia’s border.” Herbst was also at the center of an Atlantic Council kerfuffle last March, when he and 21 other Atlantic Council staff signed a letter opposing the work of two Atlantic Council colleagues who suggested a restraint-based approach to dealing with Russia.

The Atlantic Council has also launched “UkraineAlert” which publishes daily pieces on deterring Russia. A recent article, “Survey: Western public backs stronger support for Ukraine against Russia,” notes the survey in question was commissioned by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation and Yalta European Strategy, which Pinchuk founded; however, the article does not mention that the foundation is a large contributor to the Atlantic Council, donating $250,000-499,000 a year, or that Pinchuk himself — the second wealthiest man in Ukraine — sits on the international advisory board of the Atlantic Council.

Russia will not attack the Ukraine. If the Ukraine attacks the rebellious Donbas region Russia will likely wait until Ukrainian 'progress' is visible for all to see to then let the Russian military take care of the aggressors by means of artillery and other stand-off weapons.

Today the Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his foreign and defense ministers who reported on recent 'western' responses to Russia's security demands:

The Eurasianist ☦️@Russ_Warrior - 12:42 UTC · Feb 14, 2022

Breaking! President #Putin asked #Lavrov to provide the list of #Russia's responses, developed by the Foreign Ministry, to #US/#NATO rejection of Russian security proposals.

#Shoigu will then deliver the list of options developed by the Ministry of Defense.

Grumbling will be heard from the various 'western' military headquarters when Russia reveals and implements the 'military-technical measures' it had promised should the 'western' responses turn out to be insufficient as it now seems to be the case.

Except for more bullshit from clowns like Harding and Ignatius there will likely be nothing that the 'west' has to respond to those.

Posted by b on February 14, 2022 at 14:16 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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b, nicely done, but can you expand that map so that the Donbas is visible. It will make your point so much better.

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 14 2022 14:28 utc | 1

I suppose the reference to the Pripyat Marshes came up because of the ongoing military exercises by the Russian and Belarus armed forces, maybe on this same region. The Washington fanatics are using this exercise to say that Russia plans a swift attack on Kiev from the north.

Not related (I am a footbal fan myself, but I do enjoy watching a little of american handegg): since the Washington Redskins had to change their name, Washington Fanatics should be a nice alternative.

Posted by: MadPig | Feb 14 2022 14:40 utc | 2

...and "130,000 Russian troops" are on the "frozen ground," counted by a country which generally doesn't know how many of its own troops are based anywhere.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 14 2022 14:41 utc | 3

It has been wonderful to watch the west humiliating themselves for the fools they are, the parade of clueless clowns passing through Moscow with nothing to say because they have no power and only obey dictats from washington. Even better to see the US and UK run like cowards from the battlefield after promising to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine. Absolute weakness on full display. Hopefully Russia will see the false flag coming and diffuse the situation, although I doubt Zelensky will know it is happenng. I have discovered some respect for ZE who has shown courage questioning the US' narrative, even having the temerity to request evidence, maybe he will get a bullet in the back of his head for his troubles and the Chocolate Porker will take over just in time for defeat and obliteration.

Posted by: Geraldo | Feb 14 2022 14:42 utc | 4

As a youngster I would play against friends board games from a company called Avalon Hill.
One of their games was named Stalingrad.
It wasn't just about the battle for that city,
if I am recalling correctly it was about the entire WWII campaign in The Soviet Union.

There was a weather chart which would affect the movement of the pieces.
Someone would roll the dice and then cross referencing with the chart to determine the weather.
As I recall, snow was bad for the Germans, not so bad for the Russians.
Mud was the worst, the very worst. Everything would bog down.
Frozen ground was the best for speedy motion, and even the terrain marked as swamp/marsh would become navigable.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 14:44 utc | 5

Talking of swamps and wetlands reminds us that in the real world-where the Atlantic Council is seen as less serious and a lot less clever than Saturday Night Live- the east of Ukraine is famous for the fertility of its black earth. It is one of the great breadbaskets of the world.

As an article in today's Middle East Eye notes, North Africa depends on imported wheat from Ukraine and Russia. No doubt north America, much more able to sell grains than find substitutes for Russian gas, will be ready to step in and sell its surpluses if, by chance Russia is sanctioned and Ukraine is devastated by war. Or rumours of war.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-ukraine-russia-wheat-north-africa

Posted by: bevin | Feb 14 2022 14:49 utc | 6

This whole situation would be comical if it weren't so stupid.
Even if (very very if) Putin actually wanted to attack or invade Ukraine - the publication of these idiotic "intel reports" serve no purpose except to either:
1) Greatly increase the chances of exposing where this intel is leaking from, or more likely
2) Destroy the credibility of the people uttering them.

It could be both at once.

All Putin has to do is wait.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 14 2022 14:49 utc | 7

nancy p. gives the real reason for all this nonsense. She is up first with the ukraine and watch until 2:50. The whole thing is about shouting about Russia invading the ukraine and when they don't then joe b. will get credit of making Russia to back down. Wag the Dog anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTP3C21NICk

I us CC so I don't have to listen to her;-)

Thanks b

Posted by: jo6pac | Feb 14 2022 14:52 utc | 8

There is exactly zero difference between doomsday nuts who, when the doomed day passes like any other find the most perfect explanations, and these doomsday nuts. Their cults, their superstitions, their superstitions, their blindness to reason are exactly the same.

Posted by: bjd | Feb 14 2022 14:56 utc | 9

Of course the problem isn't 'frozen ground' but the freeze-dried brains of those who run, propagandize and defend for-profit Empire headed by War, Wall Street and Magical Thinking. For sure 'Western Leadership' is caught in an Ice Age of Cold War that surely will lead to its extinction on the frozen tundra of ignorance.

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 14 2022 14:56 utc | 10

Going through a Ukrainian news site a week or two and notice a ground report for farming. Soil temperature was -10 degrees. It something to do with cold killing the roots of some plants but apparently -10 was ok.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 14 2022 15:00 utc | 11

@Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 14:44 utc | 5

I found a copy of the rules for Stalingrad online.
Does not appear that the swamps freeze over,
according to this board game.

Wonder what games they play in the Pentagon.

https://www.ahgeneral.org/gameparts/Rules2.pdf

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 15:00 utc | 12

Monday afternoon: VT has the following headline:

False Flag or False Flag? Ukraine Clears Mine Corridors for Attack on DRP…and Russia?

and an article to match.
Presumably, either the US got the Germans to agree that "If the Russians invade Ukraine we will foreswear Russian gas" OR they got fed up waiting for the Russians to attack.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Feb 14 2022 15:03 utc | 13

No one seems to have commented on the fact that the vast majority of Ukrainian military are clustered around the Donbas region while the Russian / Belarus training exercise is relatively closer to Kiev. Surely if Russia intended to invade going for Kiev just over the Belarus border would require Ukraine to concentrate its forces around the capital. Everything indicates a Ukraine assault on Donbass with Russia ready to defend it as opposed to a Russian assault on Ukraine with the intention of taking over the whole country as posited by the Western media.

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Feb 14 2022 15:05 utc | 14

@foolisholdman

Oh, no... lord help us.

Posted by: MadPig | Feb 14 2022 15:10 utc | 15

The reality benders are at it again and this is just another reality-bending operation:

I pull out this obligatory old trusty:


The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

-- Ron Suskind titled "Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush" (commonly attributed to Karl Rove).

And that is indeed what the Russians and the rest of us are engaged in, diligently studying the nonsense reality the Empire is making up as it goes along.

And when we've solved their silly little puzzles they invent new ones to keep us occupied, and so the game goes.

This is how stupidity triumphs over intellect.

This is how Chaos triumphs over Order.

This is how the Empire wins.

Again and again and again ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 14 2022 15:11 utc | 16

History is full of examples of military planners miscalculating the effect of terrain.

Singapore: The Battle That Destroyed the British Empire in Asia
The 80th anniversary of the British surrender to the Japanese in Singapore
is tomorrow.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/singapore-the-battle-destroyed-the-british-empire-asia-19482

Another critical example is the battle of France 1940.

"General Philippe Pétain declared the Ardennes to be "impenetrable" as long as "special provisions" were taken to destroy an invasion force as it emerged from the Ardennes by a pincer attack. The French commander-in-chief, Maurice Gamelin also believed the area to be safe from attack, noting it "never favoured large operations". French war games held in 1938, of a hypothetical German armoured attack through the Ardennes, left the army with the impression that the region was still largely impenetrable and that this, along with the obstacle of the Meuse River, would allow the French time to bring up troops into the area to counter an attack"

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 15:18 utc | 17

Has Washington heard of global warming?
. . .from CSIS
Russia is warming 2.5 times faster than the rest of the world. In 2020, regions across Russia have experienced the hottest temperatures on record, contributing to forest fires . . . Permafrost, which covers nearly two-thirds of Russian territory, is rapidly thawing. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 14 2022 15:27 utc | 18

The point of drawing Russia into a retaliation in the Ukraine is to be able to justify broad economic sanctions on it.

Since this is the modern day equivalent of a blockade and a siege, I wonder if Russia’s response will include actions that hit Western economic activities such as blocking key shipping lanes like the Suez, the Straits of Hormuz, and perhaps the Panama Canal? Russian airspace would also be closed to countries participating in sanctions.

I doubt very much Russia would take further sanctions on the chin without retaliating decisively.

Posted by: Moses22 | Feb 14 2022 15:38 utc | 19

Avalon Hill. Classic board wargames. Many an hour was spent in brutal cardboard v cardboard combat. Till the cat walked across the board, of course.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 14 2022 15:46 utc | 20

What a difference three weeks makes.....
> “The United States' commitment to Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity is ironclad.” Antony J. Blinken - Jan 20
>Pentagon orders US soldiers out of Ukraine - Feb 12
The world will notice.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 14 2022 15:53 utc | 21

B, if Russia doesn’t attack, the Atlantic Council will simply say that the West’s aggressive response, as advocated by the Atlantic Council, was sufficient to scare Putin away from attacking Ukraine. They will then keep encouraging arms supplies to Ukraine and NATO membership.

Posted by: Walrus | Feb 14 2022 15:58 utc | 22

The "invasion" must take place while the Winter Olympics are still in progress to deliver a slap in the face to China along with Russia. No question in my mind that the U.S. administration thinks a Russia military coup is waiting in the wings to replace Putin once sanctions are implemented. One retired Russian general has already written a letter to his fellow former officers to rise up and replace Putin. The timing is exquisite and the cost to have it written would be of interest. Biden and team really believe they are on the cusp of regime change, hence their urgency to push this over the edge.

I don't understand why Russia and China don't just offer France, Germany and Japan a way out with a chance to join a Big 5 alliance focused on economic prosperity for all and mutual respect for different governing systems. That would be a positve game changer.

Posted by: Reno | Feb 14 2022 16:00 utc | 23

Posted by: Moses22 | Feb 14 2022 15:38 utc | 20

Since any "broad economic sanctions" would include kicking Russia out of SWIFT they would mean no russian gas for Europe and no diesel for the US. Because they simply can't pay for it, banks would be technically uncapable of making the transaction.

Today the Swedish foreign minister said: "Det finns ett osunt beroende av rysk gas i Europa. Vi får se hur paketet med sanktioner ser ut i slutändan". [There is an unhealty dependence on russian gas in Europe. We will have to see what the package of sanctions will look like in the end.]

I think what she means is that there will be a package, there just wont be much in it. The russian ambassador to Sweden put it a bit more bluntly: "Excuse my language, but we don't give a shit about sanctions."

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 16:03 utc | 24

Night time temps are still freezing temps as well as dusk and dawn temps. Ground is frozen below the first inch or so. It will take a couple of weeks of above freezing temps for most of the day to thaw ground into mud that is more than a few inches thick.

Posted by: R. Kahn | Feb 14 2022 16:13 utc | 25

. . .from the recent Russia-China statement. . .
>The sides believe that peace, development and cooperation lie at the core of the modern international system.
>The sides call for the establishment of a new kind of relationship between world powers on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation.
. . .I believe that they meant it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 14 2022 16:20 utc | 26

@R. Kahn | Feb 14 2022 16:13 utc | 26

Night time temps are still freezing temps as well as dusk and dawn temps. Ground is frozen below the first inch or so. It will take a couple of weeks of above freezing temps for most of the day to thaw ground into mud that is more than a few inches thick.

It is completely irrelevant as no Russian tank will enter Ukraine. This isn't WWII.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 14 2022 16:22 utc | 27

Temperature has been in the 40s with most temps above freezing and nearly daily rain.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/kyiv/324505/february-weather/324505?year=2022

There's too much propaganda so they run out of things to say and start contradicting themselves or making stupid points.

Posted by: Les | Feb 14 2022 16:23 utc | 28

Ukraine's climate has been generally warmer like most places. The World War 1 and World War 2 analogies don't hold up anymore than the Donner Party getting buried in snow if they tried the trek today.

Posted by: Les | Feb 14 2022 16:25 utc | 29

Blinken spoke with his Ukraine counterpart today. . .

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke by phone today with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The Secretary noted the United States and partners remain united in our commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including its economic and financial stability. The Secretary highlighted that, although the United States’ immediate priority is to support efforts to de-escalate the situation, any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will be met with a swift, coordinated, and forceful response. . .here

...he dropped the "ironclad support" as Ukraine slips slowly into abject poverty, causing Zelensky to ask Biden for a significant financial package for Ukraine and to visit him in Kyev as soon as possible. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 14 2022 16:34 utc | 30

Well - Harding did not say which weekend, could be in another century for all she knows.......lol

Posted by: Peter Camenzind | Feb 14 2022 16:37 utc | 31

Tali provocazioni continueranno fino a quando la Russia non inizierà a rispondere adeguatamente. È probabile che una nave da guerra straniera distrutta nelle acque territoriali russe sarà più che sufficiente per dimenticare nei prossimi anni anche i tentativi dell'Occidente di inviare le sue navi ai confini russi, per non parlare della commissione di provocazioni ", l'esperto Appunti.

Far scappare il sottomarino US da una parte è stato un bene, ma bene sarebbe stato mandarlo via un tantino ammaccato, tanto il pentagono ha affermato che non era un mezzo dello zio Sam.

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Feb 14 2022 16:41 utc | 32

Temps in the Dombas region are colder than Kyiv. January and early February temps determine frozen ground at the moment, not last few days.

Posted by: R. Kahn | Feb 14 2022 16:41 utc | 33

Yeah, my first reaction is holy ####, these people are morons.

Second reaction -- it's a filter. To make sure their audience consists exclusively of those willing to believe anything they're told.

Similar as the legendary internet scam with the "Nigerian Prince" who wants your bank account info so they can "wire you money". The story is such on-its-face BS, it actually prevents any halfway sane person from even responding. This reduces the number of conversations the scammer has to have with anyone who isn't hopelessly gullible. In a weird way, the stupidity of the presentation increases the productivity of the scam.

Posted by: ptb | Feb 14 2022 16:44 utc | 34

I'm starting to question NATO's sanity even more than usual. How is it strategically smart to position assets within easy range of Russia's stand-off weapon capability?

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 14 2022 16:46 utc | 35

The war drums in the UK usually beat the loudest when played by the keyboard warriors who are ‘gun-ho’ only so long as they and their family and friends won’t be doing the bleeding and dying.

Bliar, Elwood, Bojo and their children are never going to get into uniform, pick up a weapon and be in the contact zone. Elwood is another pretend soldier for whom dressing up, as a part-time ‘soldier’ is what floats his boat. The UK has its special forces whipping up the froth for Ukranian soldiers to do the dying. It won’t be before British soldiers start coming home in zinc coffins that the bellicose BS will stop. But the UK never learns anything from history.

Posted by: Ingwe | Feb 14 2022 16:48 utc | 36

I have been checking the Russian invasion propaganda hour by hour and it looks as though the US will trigger whatever stunt they intend in the next few days. US said Wednesday 16th so it's quite likely to occur then. Europe is agreement on sanctions now so soon as the 'invasion' occurs, the sanctions will be triggered.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 14 2022 16:49 utc | 37

@librul | Feb 14 2022 15:00 utc | 12

Wonder what games they play in the Pentagon.

"Hell Freezing Over"?

"Dungeons (GITMO and other Waterboarding Blacksites) and Dragons (Russia and China)"?

Rock On, Librul

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 14 2022 16:53 utc | 38

It is obvious that whatever the vaunted "intelligence" possessed by the Americans, it has not been shared in turn with officials from the Ukraine - the supposed future victims of an attack. Note also the careful remonstrances directed toward China - regarding an alleged indifference or co-responsibility - pushed out earlier in the weekend by Australian officials and followed up yesterday, with essentially the same language, by the Americans. Obviously a coordinated psy-op, utilizing state / think tank assets, with fairly high chance it goes "hot" with the ground-level nazi assets in Ukraine itself.

Posted by: jayc | Feb 14 2022 16:58 utc | 39

The Media+Talking_Head 24/7 Mass Hysteria over "Russian Invasion" are about:

A) Fraudulently Manufacturing Collective Consent and Experience of Fear, Disdain, and False Sense of Moral Superiority against Russia.

B) Encouraging/Enabling Western 5thColumn/Militia/Mercenary/ColoRevoRioter Entities to Act against Russia and Ethnic Russians in the Donbass;

C) Incite Sabotage, Economic Sanctions, Boycotts of Commerce+Humanitarian Relief against Russia and Ethnic Russians in the Donbass.

D) Collective Expression of Defeat and Uselessness by EU and NATO Sided Officials, and Talking Heads in hopes of sneaking in their Hegemonic Encroachment/Expansion as they face the Reality of getting Crushed in Actual Military Confrontations with Russia. Russia don't need to Invade/Occupy Europe or Kiev - they will most likely Destroy Engaging Entities then allow for Elections to see if Russia+Donbass will formally merge as Dire Hostilities Occured from the Red Lines being crossed.

E) As Norway and Denmark Signing their Sovereignty away to the USA_MilitaryIndustrialComplex, corral and cannibalize many Nation-States into Vassal Territories - per Japan, South Korea, Phillipines, Australia, New Zealand, and (to a lesser degree and indirectly) Taiwan.

NATO are entering Phased Obsolescence.

Once SilkRoad expand within Europe, Russia Fueling SilkRoad Partners with CNG/LNG will have several EU/NATO Members begin Trading away from the PetroUSD. Good chances CHNese Weapons will sell more due to their costs relatively to USA/GBR/FRA_MICs...

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 14 2022 17:02 utc | 40

I'm starting to question NATO's sanity even more than usual. How is it strategically smart to position assets within easy range of Russia's stand-off weapon capability?

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 14 2022 16:46 utc | 36

An excellent question, I have pondered it many times. Leads to events like Custer's Last Stand, the entire Korean War, Dien Bien Phu, Saigon, and now we can add Kabul.

The question of course, is who has really surrounded who?

"Dead battles, like dead generals, hold the military mind in their dead grip." -- Barbara Tuchman “Guns of August”

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 14 2022 17:09 utc | 41

@IronForge | Feb 14 2022 16:53 utc | 39

"Hell Freezing Over"?
Yes.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 14 2022 17:11 utc | 42

Keir Giles of Chatham House writing in the Grauniad here still plays the Mockingbird card:

Russia is demanding the withdrawal of Nato from eastern Europe precisely because it presents a deterrent and a constraining factor on its ambitions. Military experts talk of Moscow employing a “compellence strategy” to achieve this – a shorthand for Russia using the threat of force to extract sweeping concessions from the west like a street criminal.

No mention of Russia's reasonable expectation of a buffer zone between it and so-called "defensive" NATO. No mention of the 2014 coup and whether the chicken came before the egg.

However, there is a limited hangout here too, and one wonders if there is a shift in the wind:

But the emphasis on near-inevitable war – and the naming of narrow timeframes when it is expected to happen – is also closing down options for the US and its allies, while opening them up for Russia. Moscow still has the initiative, and the risk is growing that its president, Vladimir Putin, is being set up to achieve a diplomatic victory through pulling the rug from under the western war scare. [...]

While previously it would have been hard to cast any retreat by Putin as anything but humiliating failure, it is now the US that stands to be embarrassed, and the credibility of its intelligence disclosures once again shattered, if Russia chooses an option other than invasion – or even simply continues to sit on the border as the dates named by the US come and go.

There is an "if" there which should be a "when" IMO. Russia would be foolish in the extreme to invade Ukraine and I see no evidence thus far that they are so afflicted.

Posted by: echelon | Feb 14 2022 17:13 utc | 43

The cat introduced the real world and beat you all XD Good lesson right there.

The weather has perhaps been mild enough to interfere with US plans. The warmer latter half of this winter took the air out of public discontent they thought they could use (but which utterly failed them) and made the energy question less crucial right now as well as even less of a "surprise" for future winters thus putting the onus even more on local national politicians rather than "bad Russia" (lol).

They've been harping on the "Russian fuel" story for years or close to a decade and no one cares or buys into the bullshit. They're so far removed from ordinary people that they have no chance of succeeding. They've missed Orwell's point in 1984 about how "the proles" existed and lived mostly outside of the Big Brother apparatus simply because the "elite"/apparatchik machinations are essentially irrelevant to ordinary people (unless some war kills them etc.).

Propaganda outlets like Bloomberg focuses on the spot price but at every point in time during winter the door was open for anyone at all to agree to 'nearly immediate start of delivery' long term gas supply contracts from Gasprom at a much better price than the spot price and there was and is plenty of available storage space all through Europe that has been mostly empty since summer. It was all 100% contrived by the US right from the start and it failed miserably.

It clearly must have taken deliberate and highly organized efforts to make sure absolutely no one decided or were allowed to make any new such deals across the continent despite of the potential profit that was to be had.

That's some juicy leak material right there and something all European politicians should be demanded answers on come any and all elections.

It's also a nice test of how many "journalists" are worth anything at all; the answer has already been given.

And it's the same with everything: Russia and China have constantly been and continue to be ready for friendly and peaceful interaction on all matters and for the most part continue to gain more and more of it worldwide including in the US and the various US hostage nations.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 14 2022 17:21 utc | 44

Thanks for the info, b. A quick question from my ignorance: all militaries seem to still have tanks, though, don’t they? How exactly are tanks used in modern warfare? What is their purpose now?

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Feb 14 2022 17:27 utc | 45

Machine translation:

"Such provocations will continue until Russia begins to respond adequately. It is likely that a foreign warship destroyed in Russian territorial waters will be more than enough to forget in the coming years even the attempts of the West to send its ships to the Russian borders, not to mention the commission of provocations ", the expert Appunti. Running the US submarine to one side was good, but it would have been good to send it away a little bruised, so much so that the pentagon claimed that it was not a vehicle of Uncle Sam."

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Feb 14 2022 16:41 utc | 32

I agree to some extent, but readers should question the idea that Russia wants the US to wise up about this sort of provocation just yet. They are in the middle of a progaganda offensive too.

And as long as we are so overextended, we are somewhat hamstrung when wanting to face a modernized adversary, as one can see right now. Iran has deterrence precisely because we have lilypads and satraps all around them, easy targets now.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 14 2022 17:34 utc | 46

After thinking it trough.

I'm sure the "false flag", Provokationen is coming.
It will be a devastating attack agains a school or a hospital with hundreds of victims.
something so horrible, forcing russias hand or loosing face for doing nothing

Posted by: kartoschka | Feb 14 2022 17:37 utc | 47

Posted by: R. Kahn | Feb 14 2022 16:41 utc | 33

I don't know what your agenda is, but couldn't you at least check befor you post? The monthly avarage day time temperatur in Donetsk hasn't been belov zero C this winter.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 17:38 utc | 48

Michael Roberts has an excellent analysis of the economy of Ukraine. Living standards are still well below levels reached in Soviet times. The country owes Russia $3 billion and has been borrowing from the IMF. Ukraine is among the five worst performing countries on earth for growth, on a par with Burundi.
But help is on the way! Large enterprises and most agricultural land are on the verge of being auctioned off, to foreigners and comprador oligarchs.
For Ukrainians the prospects are dire, while protests are out of the question: opponents to government or Nazi militias are silenced, imprisoned and assassinated.
They really do share "our values" and Pinochet's too.
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2022/02/14/ukraine-trapped-in-a-war-zone/

Posted by: bevin | Feb 14 2022 17:41 utc | 49

Never has the military cliche of ‘fighting the last war’ been so apt. The western political non-imagination demands a tank blitz across the steppes, the sacking of cities. Frozen ground theory = an irrelevant subset of this thinking...

Posted by: Pete | Feb 14 2022 17:42 utc | 50

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 14 2022 16:49 utc | 37

Europe is not in agreement on sanctions. Again, swedish FM today: "We will have to see what the package of sanctions will look like in the end." As Seinfelt would have put it: Hey! That means that there's no package!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 17:43 utc | 51

Pelosi just gave the game away.
No surprise to those that read MoA+

It is about giving the Democrats a political success
to tout for the elections this year.


PELOSI: “Well, I think we have to be prepared for it. And that is what the president is — yes, I do believe that he is prepared for an invasion. I also understand why the President of Ukraine wants to keep people calm and that he wants his economy not to suffer. But, on the other hand, if we were not threatening the sanctions and the rest, it would guarantee that Putin would invade. Let’s hope that diplomacy works.

It’s about diplomacy deterrence. Diplomacy deterrence. And the president’s made it very clear. There’s a big price to pay for Russia to go there. So, if Russia doesn’t invade, it’s not that he never intended to. It’s just that the sanctions worked.” … “I’m very proud of the work that the president has done.”

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/02/13/its-official-white-house-ukraine-crisis-is-manufactured-pelosi-says-if-russia-doesnt-invade-ukraine-it-proves-strength-and-brilliance-of-joe-biden-policy/

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 17:43 utc | 52

O/t perhaps, but maybe not.. Interestingly, Mauritius has planted its flag on a Chagos atoll, directly challenging UK claims over their BIOT.

Link to guardian article

Is this direct challenge also part of 'military - technical' responses, planned and co-ordinated with Russia/China? The Chagos islands contain the US base on Diego Garcia..

Posted by: R | Feb 14 2022 17:43 utc | 53

@MadPig,
I think it's just that the average mouth-breather like Harding think it's like those movies on WW2 they watched on TV. Just crass, unbelievable incompetence mixed with arrogance.

Posted by: SumGuy | Feb 14 2022 17:50 utc | 54

It really seems the western response, especially on twitter, is a result of the mRNA vaccinations.
Or, as the german proverb says: "Das kommt von der Impfung!"

Posted by: BelleDelphine | Feb 14 2022 17:53 utc | 55

The Russian-speaking segment on the internet has been cranking out "frozen ground" memes at an invasive pace, pardon the pun. My personal favorite is "The Russian military is waiting for favorable tail wind to launch their missiles."

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 14 2022 17:53 utc | 56

@Reno | 23

"I don't understand why Russia and China don't just offer France, Germany and Japan a way out with a chance to join a Big 5 alliance focused on economic prosperity for all and mutual respect for different governing systems. That would be a positve game changer."

'cause the Euro elites don't want to get murdered or color-revolutioned and then murdered by the CIA. And Russia and China know that perfectly well.

Posted by: SumGuy | Feb 14 2022 17:54 utc | 58

The only thing frozen will be the results of all this hoopla.

Frozen demarcation lines
Frozen confrontation
Frozen rhetoric - expect more of the same from both sides
Frozen economy for Ukraine
Frozen wages and pensions for those caught in the middle

Oh, and while our attention is Frozen looking at a Frozen conflict, other nasty things go unnoticed

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 14 2022 18:00 utc | 59

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 14 2022 17:54 utc | 57

Tanks for the links. (Pun very much intended.) I read a few more of the postings, and stumbled on up on this:

The President proposed to launch a concrete strategic dialogue in the energy sphere to elaborate energy guarantees and effective support for Ukraine.

"It is important that Germany becomes a guarantor of continued gas transit through Ukraine," he said.

Well, that would be impossible. Unless the strategic dialogue included Russia (there's no way getting around that the gas is kind of theirs).
A strategic dialogue between Ukraine, Germany and Russia? That would be the mother of all back fierings!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 18:05 utc | 60

@Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 14 2022 17:53 utc | 56

My personal favorite is "The Russian military is waiting for favorable tail wind to launch their missiles."

You do want a favorable wind during a nuclear war. The wind determines where the nuclear fallout drops out.
That, of course, is most applicable to a *limited* nuclear war. The Big One will have fallout everywhere.

And then there are bio-weapons. You want the bio-weapons being carried onto their troops and not your own.

Many years ago I was looking at wind direction charts in the MidEast. Izrael was blanked out on the charts,
which I found very peculiar and interesting. Haven't searched that subject in a long time. I will guess that
it is nearly impossible now to keep the winds around Izrael a secret.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 18:10 utc | 61

Jörgen Hassler 51
Germany looks to have been the main one to get agreement with and they are now in agreement. I haven't seen any complaints to speak of from France Italy ect. A good article here on where the sanctions were at on the 11th.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-11/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-u-s-eu-officials

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 14 2022 18:10 utc | 62

In response to SumGuy@58,

They could probably avoid that turn of events, but the general sentiment is correct. Such a choice would put them in the path of direct confrontation with the US block and, as it stands right now, Europe is essentially demilitarized and relies entirely on that block for security and political support. Reconfiguration to become a sovereign player has huge costs attached to it and would take a significant transitional period, and the end result would leave EU in an overall weaker position to conduct international deals and diplomacy.

However, my impression is that we're rapidly approaching a time when the current political configuration no longer offers any of the previous benefits and increasingly introduces more and more severe drawbacks. It may be that, at the end of the day, the choice to preserve the status quo and do nothing carries within it the same or worse risks, including color revolutions, assassinations and the inevitable decrease of status and influence in global politics, as would the attempt of a timely policy realignment and reconfiguration. Developments in the domestic politics in Europe in practically every state indicate that there is a general awareness of this, both among the electorate and the elites, but whether it's the political systems themselves which are designed to resist rapid change or if it's being actively suppressed -- presume both -- it has not produced any real results so far.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 14 2022 18:15 utc | 63

I read somewhere else that Ignatius is a CIA plant over at the paper...has been for some time...

Posted by: notlurking | Feb 14 2022 18:20 utc | 64

To librul,

What was being implied was that Russian missiles themselves do poorly flying against the wind or may be blown of course, in the sarcastic vein that Russian tanks need firm ground to traverse or they get bogged down. I've rarely seen comments pertaining to nuclear exchange, which I presume nobody expects. Even less so the use of strategic arms against Ukraine, which is an unthinkable concept.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 14 2022 18:21 utc | 65

From Eurasianist:

"Defense Minister Shoigu to President Putin, Military exercises in Belarus about to end, Russia troops to be pulled back as planned."

Is the comment of the Russian Defense Minister accurate or perhaps misdirection?

Might be accurate if we actually begin to see trains with equipment taking units back to their garrisons.

Might be misdirection since I don't believe there was any prior announcement of Russian military exercises that included all districts and all fleets.

Fog of War or still hope for diplomacy?

Posted by: Gulag | Feb 14 2022 18:22 utc | 66

Germany has sent two mine warfare ships into Gulf of Finland. In practice it might not be relevant, but symbolically this is a terrible idea... between World War 1 and World War 2 something like 130k mines were dumped into the gulf.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 14 2022 18:23 utc | 67

In Western Canada there are "Road Bans" during Spring thaw on unpaved rural roads, starting early March. This is to protect the roads, but probably not a good time to invade.

Posted by: Keith McClary | Feb 14 2022 18:37 utc | 68

Here, in So. Cal. U$A, the "Russian invasion" news is a constant drum-beat coming from our MSM. And, the morons here, are lapping it up.

It's truly a sickening sight to behold. No Russian voices, explaining their point of view, allowed.

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 14 2022 18:37 utc | 69

The frozen ground fantasy doesn't just come from ignorant hacks dreaming things up. It seems to be the official White House story of how Russia wants to conquer Kiev from the direction of Belarus. Biden said this about Putin last month:

for him to move in and occupy the whole country, particularly from the north, from Belarus, it’s — he’s going to have to wait a little bit until the ground is frozen so he can cross.

and last week:
I know that he’s in a position now to be able to invade almost — assuming that the ground is frozen above Kyiv.

But despite the continuing mild weather, the Russian invasion is now supposed to be more imminent than ever.

Posted by: Brendan | Feb 14 2022 18:38 utc | 70

@Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 14 2022 18:21 utc | 65

My post wasn't meant as a criticism directed towards you.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 18:41 utc | 71

The US seems to desperately need the incident to occur during the Beijing Olympics. Wednesday is the selected date.

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/russia-set-to-invade-ukraine-on-february-16-report-1080771.html

They've even published the two invasion routes by Russian forces, the Northern route via Kharkiv and the Southern route via Mariupol and the Black Sea, completely bypassing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that are the subject of the conflict. It is the second route, where they've played up the frozen ground conditions and which doesn't make any sense.

Posted by: Les | Feb 14 2022 18:49 utc | 72

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 14 2022 18:10 utc | 62

If you read the reuters piece the only thing agreed up on is to sanction 2 banks that are already sanctioned. And those sanctions would "likely be accompanied by certain waivers and wind-down periods to limit harm to U.S. companies and those of allies."

And then there's this "The sanctions on the table also include export controls on components produced by Russia for the tech and weapons sectors", which I interpret as a new idea: getting Russia to sanction them selves. Sorry, the piece is garbage.

If there was an agreement on sweeping sanctions they would tell us what they are. And the Swedish FM would't say the jury's still out three days later.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 18:50 utc | 73

librul @5--

Squad Leader. I still have everything.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 14 2022 18:51 utc | 74

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 14:44 utc | 5

I used to play Stalingrad too, and you've summoned old memories: Afrika Korps, Kingmaker, Diplomacy and, of course, the seminal Squad Leader. Golden Age of complex war games.

I find the Guardian's reporting of the Ukraine nothing-burger particularly stupid. They're using that red background with the blinking 'live' that they use to give the impression that you're getting minute-by-minute coverage of... crickets and tumbleweed. What a bunch of half-baked shills. Real ministry of truth stuff: tomorrow's article will be about how Putin was talked off the ledge by Bojo, but that the Russian bear could invade 'anytime'.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 14 2022 18:54 utc | 75

@Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 14 2022 18:51 utc | 74

Battle of the Bulge is probably the one we played most often.

I am remembering, also, Vercingetorix and D-Day. Think we tried Waterloo too.

Not sure about Squad Leader. There was one that was fictitious and included
the use of tactical nukes.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 18:55 utc | 76

Oh yeah, Afrika Korps with Gen Rommel.
Played that one quite a bit too.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 18:56 utc | 77

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 14 2022 18:51 utc | 74

We were thinking the same thing... Squad Leader is fantastic. The Close Combat series replicated bits if it quite well (especially Gateway to Caen), but nothing beats the boardgame. It really was engrossing and tactically accurate.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 14 2022 18:57 utc | 78

@Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 14 2022 18:57 utc | 78

I am doing chores otherwise I would research this myself.
One of them "Squad Leader" perhaps, you would open up with
artillary first to soften up the opponent then introduce
other tactics...there was even calling in air support...?
Coming back to me in little bubbles.

Oh, yeah! Anzio was another game in the series.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 19:02 utc | 79

Just wondering, how much of this "Russian invasion" thing really has to do with the NS2 pipeline?

If it doesn't function, the empire's LGN folks say they'll deliver. Mmmmmmmmmmm...

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 14 2022 19:11 utc | 80

According to U.S. and Ukraine intelligence Russia will invade this Wednesday.

So what's wrong with Tuesday, Thursday Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday?

Posted by: Circe | Feb 14 2022 19:13 utc | 81

Don't for forget about the pending Russian FALSE FLAG event!, FA-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-LSE FLA-A-A-A-A-A-A-GS

According to CNN, this is a Russian specialty. Just ask any Russia expert. Note, they don't actually give any examples of Russia faking an attack or an atrocity to justify military action. Sometimes they mutter 'Crimea' but then you would have to believe that Maidan was a Putin plot.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Feb 14 2022 19:14 utc | 82

@Reno #23:

I don't understand why Russia and China don't just offer France, Germany and Japan a way out with a chance to join a Big 5 alliance focused on economic prosperity for all and mutual respect for different governing systems.

This has been offered many times.

Posted by: S | Feb 14 2022 19:15 utc | 83

Mr. Putin,

Please, please don't invade until Kamila Valieva finishes kicking everyone's ass.

Thank you.

Posted by: Circe | Feb 14 2022 19:18 utc | 84

Just launched (in Dutch) the article “What motivates Russia: the right to a sphere of influence” https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2022/02/14/wat-rusland-motiveert-het-recht-op-een-invloedssfeer/ (use the translate box in the right upper corner).

Since the broken American promises of 1991, the Russians feel betrayed. The American ‘winner-takes-all’ mentality has created a deep sense of resentment. Russia demands its own sphere of influence. That is what the conflict is about, not Ukraine. The world stands at an important turning point: the unipolar era is over.

Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 14 2022 19:26 utc | 85

Les | Feb 14 2022 18:49 utc | 72

I'm pretty sure they will have a unit there to directly target Russian forces, perhaps in Crimea so they can at least get a Georgia 2.0 event. Along with an attack on Donbass and some bombs going off in Kiev and perhaps other cities. The comedian has been told the 16th will be the day of the attack, and I am thinking that is also the expiry date on his birth certificate.
But if Russian forces are targeted and hit, there is a good possibility Russia will do a Georgia on Ukraine and give the place a spring clean.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 14 2022 19:31 utc | 86

Librul@3 and Karlof1. I remember squad leader. Total flash back right now. We played twilight 2000 mostly. There is a Video game my son plays called squad, it a mil sim game, he was playing a map yesterday where they lost comms in a valley and had to move to higher ground to regain comms. I thought that was pretty realistic.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Feb 14 2022 19:36 utc | 87

librul & Patroklos--

I was deeply into those games from 1970-1978 then stopped playing and became an actual soldier in the 1979 Economic Draft. Since then, never found anyone capable or interested. Now geopolitics has become the #1 Reality Game IMO. As you might imagine knowing that bit about my background that I was first interested in Military History. All that led me to oppose war, although to be a sound geopolitician one must be aware of current military capabilities.

The braying continues. IMO, Russia will soon issue a statement naming the nations that have broken the three main OSCE Security Treaties and detail how. I don't think remedies will be included at that time; better to let the guilty stew and fret. I don't know what actions will be taken; however, I doubt anything kinetic will occur.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 14 2022 19:37 utc | 88

thanks b...

@ 48 bevin.. thanks for the link...

"The Russian military is waiting for favorable tail wind to launch their missiles."

@ Skiffer | Feb 14 2022 17:53 utc | 56 - thanks for that skiffer.... a little humour goes a long ways...

Posted by: james | Feb 14 2022 19:44 utc | 89

When I was young my father worked for RAND corp. programming computer simulations of WW3 scenarios. He introduced me to these kinds of wargames and we played many together, including most of the ones barflies have remembered above. Avalon Hill's Stalingrad was very basic, simulation-wise, whereas later games by companies such as SPI were generally much more realistic. SPI put out a periodical for players, FYEO (For Your Eyes Only) that wasn't gaming material but news and analysis of international military hardware, tactics and other developments—much of this content was of quality that might be at home on a site such as MoA. FYEO actually announced one issue that their newest subscriber was none other than the Defense Intelligence Agency...

While playing them I always did try to keep in mind the realities of war that these attempted to simulate as "games". Occasionally we got reminders—one lighthearted as when my Italian grandfather seeing my father and me over the mapboard of Afrika Korps, pointed to Knightsbridge (now Bir Hacheim) and said, "There is where I came down with amoebic dysentery!"; another dead serious as when a house guest, seeing our Battle of the Bulge mapboard, informed us, "My father died at Bastogne".

No time for these now but in retrospect I think the best (most realistic) simulations were of past battles and campaigns, ones in which the most information is available on which to model. Efforts to simulate anticipated conflicts (e.g. a 1980s NATO/Warsaw Pact battle in Germany) were all about how tactics and weapons systems were *intended* to work.

And here we are, as karlof1 notes, in the geopolitics reality game. After my own stint in the Army I too came out a lifelong antiwar activist.

Hoping someone's around in years to come to "simulate" our current crisis.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 14 2022 19:46 utc | 90

Many years ago I was looking at wind direction charts in the MidEast. Izrael was blanked out on the charts, which I found very peculiar and interesting. Haven't searched that subject in a long time. I will guess that it is nearly impossible now to keep the winds around Izrael a secret.

Posted by: librul | Feb 14 2022 18:10 utc | 61

The August 2006 assault on south Lebanon was carried out using uranium-based weapons (as determined later by the Post-Conflict Intervention Unit of the United Nations Environmental Program) while the winds were south to north. The day the winds shifted with air coming down from the north, the bombing stopped.

Posted by: RJPJR | Feb 14 2022 19:52 utc | 91

A strategic dialogue between Ukraine, Germany and Russia? That would be the mother of all back fierings!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 18:05 utc | 60

Well yes. Just add France and you have the Normandy Format. :-)

A united Europe does seem like the best way to resist outside meddling. We'll just have to wait and see which side the pancake comes down on.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 14 2022 19:59 utc | 92

I came across this footage recently of a T90 tank crossing a river fully submerged

https://youtu.be/fju38y7Wv0o

Here is footage of a T72 doing the same.

https://youtu.be/DI_Myjk9xf4

If the Russians had wanted to invade they would have done it by now, marsh lands no marsh lands.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 14 2022 20:01 utc | 93

PeterAu1#86.....false flagging a Russian position? Would have to be a suicide squad. Anyone not familiar with Russian counter battery fire suppression systems would do well to look into it.
They also have a suite of stand off weapons systems with multiple launch platforms. Most Russian tank commanders will be able to watch how well they work standing on top of their tanks from a very safe distance....I'm not sure why so many people fixate on tanks and frozen ground....like, so last century.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 14 2022 20:09 utc | 94

Posted by: Down South | Feb 14 2022 20:01 utc | 93

It's going to rain in Donetsk friday, maybe that's what those damned russkies are waiting for?

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 14 2022 20:14 utc | 95

Lest we forget that ground wars are so yesterday. Remember the recent war in the Caucuses? Tanks had no answer for drones, and precision bombs. This war, if there is one (big if) will be fought remotely and with precision. No need for ground troops to do anything but a mop up operation.

Oh yeah, and what happened to Psaki, couple of weeks ago, saying we don’t use the word ‘imminent’ any more?

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Feb 14 2022 20:24 utc | 96

When your brother has you in rifle sights the temperature of the ground is irrelevant, so to say. They say the Rada cannot meet because so many members have run away.

Posted by: Walter | Feb 14 2022 20:27 utc | 97


M. K. Bhadrakmur has recently claimed that there are some 175,000 nato troops standing around and parked at Russia's western borders. But I hear no big belly aching from the Western media about those aggressive maneuvers and manpower.

Not to mention the hundreds of flights in and out of Ukraine by the pacifists of NATO delivering war materials this past month or two

While the standard claims in the US and UK media is for around 100,000 Russian troops 'threatening' the Ukraine with their maneuvers and such, all on Russian and Belarussian soil

https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-war-hysteria-over-ukraine-wont-gel/

"...The size of the NATO deployment on Russia’s western borders already stands at 175,000 troops! Advanced weapons have been deployed too. (Eight nuclear-capable heavy B-52 members are deployed to a forward base in the UK.) Over and above, US has established an air bridge to ferry weapons to Ukraine. As of Friday, more than 15 military flights landed in Ukraine with 1200 tonnes of materials...."

Russian invasion, hogwash. ....Not unless the militarists and neo-nazos in Ukraine attack in full force against the Donetsk

I for one am still waiting for some Western false flag to kick it all off. or maybe not. :):):)

Posted by: michaelj72 | Feb 14 2022 20:28 utc | 98

Melinda Haring admitted today that her predictions last week were a bit premature but she says "I still expect action this week".
https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1493209568436011011

Posted by: Brendan | Feb 14 2022 20:28 utc | 99

I guess the US/NATO will claim the invasion didn't happen because the ground was not frozen enough.

Posted by: digital dinosaur | Feb 14 2022 20:28 utc | 100

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