Some Additional Bits On Ukraine

February 22, 2022

Yesterday Russia recognized the Donbas republics. This seems to include all of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions which are largely controlled by the Ukrainian government forces. Here are some bits on the fall-out.

—

The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has halted the certification of the Nordstream II pipeline that is supposed to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany. That means higher energy prices for Germany and higher inflation.

Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE – 13:19 UTC · 22 Feb 2022
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

It is political harakiri and will therefore most likely be reversed.

I wonder why Scholz took this sensational step. The U.S. reaction seems way more muted.

—

Showing 'unwavering' support by running away from the conflict:

US relocates Ukraine embassy staff to Poland

"For security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland. Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services," Blinken said in a statement, adding that the U.S. commitment to Ukraine remained "unwavering."

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Ceasefire violation as counted by the OSCE special monitoring mission to Ukraine (note the changes to the Y-axes).

Sunday was a bit calmer than Saturday but the numbers are still at a much higher level than usual.

I find it likely that the sudden increase of artillery explosions from 80 per day to over 1,200 per day over the last week had an effect on the timing of Putin's decision.

Wednesday, 16.2.2022

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Thursday, 17.2.2022

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Friday, 18.2.2022

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Saturday and Sunday, 19.2.2022, 20.2.2022

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Anti-Zelensky op-eds in U.S. media:

Inside the Biden-Putin Chess Match – Puck news, Jan 25, 2022
The White House and its Democratic allies have just about had it with president Zelensky.
by Julia Ioffe, a veteran of The Atlantic, The New Yorker, and Politico
Ukrainians are wondering if their comedian-turned-president can handle the world stage – CNN, Feb 11, 2022
by Michael Bociurkiw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council
The Comedian-Turned-President Is Seriously in Over His Head – New York Times, Feb 21, 2022
by Olga Rudenko, chief editor of The Kyiv Independent

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I agree with this Saker take:

The first thing which I want to point out is that this was a very carefully orchestrated event, and I don’t just mean today’s live meetings and signing. For those of us who follow Russian politics very closely there can be no doubts that all this was prepared long BEFORE the Russian ultimatum to the West.

This is “the plan” which Putin once openly referred to.

Let me make this clear: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation. It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.

Next, that must be repeated again, this is NOT about the LDNR, the Donbass or even the Ukraine, this is about a new security architecture on Europe and, therefore, on our entire planet.
…
Next, I want to mention four specific threats made by Putin today (note, since the PR folks at the Kremlin are still working at their usual snail’s pace, I will have to make them by memory, please keep that in mind):

Those responsible for the massacre in Odessa will be punished by Russia.

Putin is demanding an immediate cessation of the shelling and shooting along the LOC.

Russia will physically prevent the Ukraine from US/NATO deploying offensive weapons to threaten Russia.

Russia will show Banderastan how to organize a *real* “decommunization” (after indicating that the Ukraine was created by the CPSU).

Again, I will repeat here what I wrote above: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation. It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.

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Address by the President of the Russian Federation – February 21, 2022:

Actually, as I have already said, Soviet Ukraine is the result of the Bolsheviks’ policy and can be rightfully called “Vladimir Lenin’s Ukraine.” He was its creator and architect. This is fully and comprehensively corroborated by archival documents, including Lenin’s harsh instructions regarding Donbass, which was actually shoved into Ukraine. And today the “grateful progeny” has overturned monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. They call it decommunization.

You want decommunization? Very well, this suits us just fine. But why stop halfway? We are ready to show what real decommunizations would mean for Ukraine.

1654-1917 – various Russian Tsars, 1922 – Lenin, 1945 – Stalin, 1954 – Khrushchev

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Posted by b on February 22, 2022 at 13:35 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Interesting article re. US dependence on Russia for Titanium, Paladium, Neon and more especially for microchip production.
So sanctions on Russia applied to microchips would have instant and significant blowback on the US and its clients.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/striking-back-putin-has-his-own-card-to-play-after-being-hit-by-sanctions-20220223-p59ytp.html

Posted by: digital dinosaur | Feb 23 2022 5:00 utc | 301

PS Don’t forget to read past all the other anti-Russian blather.

Posted by: digital dinosaur | Feb 23 2022 5:04 utc | 302

Why does Putin call the attacks on D/LNR “genocide?”
Posted by: Atown | Feb 22 2022 21:32 utc | 186
Because of the large numbers of mass graves containing civilians found there.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 22:08 utc | 198
I still don’t get it. Yes, too many dead civilians over the past 7 years, but no mass graves in the sense of the ethnic Ukrainian military is killing all the ethnic Russians they can find and bulldozing their bodies into hastily dug pits. Local casualties are being buried in close proximity to each other by their kin/neighbors, like a cemetery of necessity. Excess dead civilians in question are more or less what we Outlaws call collateral damage, or so it seems given what I can google.

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 5:24 utc | 303

Melaleuca @ 293:
LOL that game show was “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?” Phone a friend indeed and discover all your friends are scarpering off to Lvov or even Poland.
One can only hope that Little Vova Ze has not stashed his millions with the Bank of England or Fort Knox, or can get them back from the Caymans or wherever, when he has to beg Putin for asylum from whoever is coming for him.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 23 2022 5:41 utc | 304

Posted by: xototox | Feb 22 2022 22:59 utc | 212
Wonderful piece, thanks. Those who are celebrating the quick demise of the ‘Outlaw US Empire’ should note that Germany
can’t just quit and turn to the ‘East’. I see world power shifting that way but it’s going to take some time. Germany is
not the empire’s only captive.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 23 2022 1:08 utc | 250
I’ll pile on the thanks for your continued sharing of your, yes prodigious, work. The days are getting longer here in the Arctic but I’m curious
if somehow you have longer days there on the beautiful Oregon coast than the rest of the world. How do you do it, man? Awesome!
btw I machine translated the transcript of the Security Council Meeting prior to Putin’s speech. Here’s the last paragraph of his opening statement:
“Therefore, I propose the following procedure for our work: first, I would like to give the floor to Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov, who is working precisely in the area of attempts to agree with Washington and Brussels, with NATO on security guarantees, and then I will ask Dmitry Nikolayevich Kozak to make a report on his assessments of what is happening on the negotiation track on the implementation of the Minsk agreements, then I will give the floor to each of you. But in the end, you and I must decide what we will do next and how we should act, based on the situation that is developing today, and based on our assessments of its development.”
Good evidence right there against anyone claiming Putin is a dictator!

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 23 2022 5:44 utc | 305

James @276
Dnipropetrovsk-based Yuzhmash was a key part of the Soviet Union’s missile programs. It developed the intermediate range R-12 and R-14 missiles deployed in Cuba during the ‘missile crisis’, and the first 2nd generation ICBM (the R-16) that used storable fuels and could be keep on high alert for long periods (just in time to deter Kennedy’s Generals). The heavy R-36 ICBM was developed into the terrifying R-36M (known to NATO as the SS-18 ‘Satan’), capable of carrying 10+ multiple warheads and still in service with the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Russian Federation.
Yuzhmash produced space launch vehicles such as Kosmos, Tsyklon, Dnieper based on their ballistic missiles in the ’60s-70s and the advanced Zenit launcher based on the booster for the Soviet ‘Buran’ Shuttle in the ’80s, that dominated the commercial satellite launch market as part of the Russia/Ukrainian/US ‘Sea Launch’ system (until the 2014 coup and related sanctions allowed SpaceX to take over).
Yuzhmash also had expertise in satellite construction, from the early Kosmos science satellites to the Tselina ELINT. Most of this impressive capability has been lost, especially since 2014, but Yuzhmash still supplies the booster stage for the US Antares rocket. Luckily Yuzhmash made only small rocket engines in Soviet times, so Antares uses Russian engines and cannot be quickly converted to form the basis of a Ukrainian ICBM. However as you mentioned they do apparently hold the technical drawings for the Russian RD-251 engine for the R-36, that the US accused North Korea of acquiring.
As the front lines moved in 2014 I watched with interest hoping that Dnipropetrovsk and Yuzhmash’s facilities there would be liberated, before the oligarchs finish their asset stripping or their thugs use them to create a Nazi ICBM. Perhaps it is not too late.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Feb 23 2022 6:04 utc | 306

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 22 2022 21:17 utc | 179
To take your speculations further : I was surprised by the sanctions being not being aimed at industry or agriculture but almost exclusively at finance. (Which can’t hurt a country like Russia partnered with a country like China in any significant way, since they are about fictitious capital rather than real.)
But it might, just as the battle of Greece that the Germans won about a decade ago, be about trying to take down Deuche Bank. How exposed are they to Russian bond and stocks, does anyone know?

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 23 2022 6:18 utc | 307

@xototox | Feb 22 2022 22:59 utc | 212
Thank you for a very important post! Extremely depressing but truth is truth. What you describe is true for other countries in Europe as well. It is an occupation.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2022 6:55 utc | 308

waynorinorway #302

Good evidence right there against anyone claiming Putin is a dictator!

Thank you and that is just where the Russian strength lies: they function as collegiate, perhaps collective. PLUS they are rigid when it comes to the rule of law. They are admirable because of their commitment to law.
Their enemies don’t give a toss for the rule of law and they are advocates of the rules based order which is definitely NOT the same thing.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 23 2022 7:11 utc | 309

@ Norwegian | Feb 23 2022 6:55 utc | 305 who wrote about comment from xototox | Feb 22 2022 22:59 utc | 212
”
What you describe is true for other countries in Europe as well. It is an occupation.
”
Not to put too fine a point on it, but is there a country in the West that is not occupied by the global God of Mammon financial cult?
Americans have had their country turned into a MIC tool to enforce financial supremacy by the elite.
All countries in the West have become financialized as well as the governments.
I don’t understand why Russia thinks its a good idea to trade in EU money when the underlying structure is so week and subservient to the US/City of London Corp cabal.
I also don’t understand why China and Russia are not calling out specifically/clearly the private finance cabal of the West and all its BIS/SWIFT/IMF/World Bank machinations for all to see.
I don’t believe that the humans behind the God of Mammon cult are all Jewish (I was with a Jewish woman for 17 years) but the phrase that keeps sticking in my mind is
We are all Occupied Palestine now.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 23 2022 7:13 utc | 310

anyone reading much of the mainstream propaganda I mean the mainstream media? in general, I don’t usually pay much attention but here’s a bit of a selection, to give but a flavor of the Western hysteria and muscle-flexing
from one of the always reliable CIA mouthpiece, the AP
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-asia-europe-united-nations-881717d75ad21662562dec7b5c8f43b0
West hits back with sanctions for Russia’s Ukraine actions
“Responding swiftly to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order sending troops to separatist regions of Ukraine, world leaders hit back with non-military actions Tuesday in hopes of averting a full-blown war in Europe….”
the ever right-wing WA Times:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/putins-argument-for-dominating-ukraine-foreshadows-aggression-against-nato
Putin’s argument for dominating Ukraine foreshadows aggression against NATO
https://news.usni.org/2022/02/22/russian-navy-cruisers-positioned-to-counter-u-s-french-and-italian-carrier-groups-in-the-mediterranean
Russian Navy Cruisers Positioned to Counter U.S., French and Italian Carrier Groups in the Mediterranean
the madness of PM Boris J. as he sends more UK funds abroad as his own nation continues collapsing
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17737250/boris-johnson-arms-ukraine-weapons-vladimir-putin/
STOP MAD VLAD Britain to send more weapons to Ukraine within days after Boris Johnson warns of Vladimir Putin’s ‘irrational’ behaviour
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-punishing-putin-biden-could-171437620.html
Punishing Putin: How Biden could cut Russia off from world tech
“If Russia further invades Ukraine, the Biden administration could deprive it of a vast swath of low- and high-tech U.S. and foreign-made goods, from commercial electronics and computers to semiconductors and aircraft parts, people familiar with the matter told Reuters….”
and hysteria++ at the far right-wing NY Post:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/ukrainian-new-yorkers-brace-for-war-compare-putin-to-hitler/
Ukrainian New Yorkers brace for war, compare Putin to Hitler
the USA loves illegal and immoral sanctions so much the last decade or two, but doesn’t seem to realize that Russia has a few little sanctions, etc of its own up its sleeves it could use to close down all of Ukraine, by effectively turning off the lights, gas and oil to the country; and even perhaps making a no-fly zone over the whole country, and/or a neat little naval blockade a la the Cuban missile crisis era
just saying…..

Posted by: michaelj72 | Feb 23 2022 7:24 utc | 311

Atown | Feb 23 2022 5:24 utc | 300

I still don’t get it. Yes, too many dead civilians over the past 7 years, but no mass graves in the sense of the ethnic Ukrainian military is killing all the ethnic Russians they can find and bulldozing their bodies into hastily dug pits.

Would you mind pointing out what part of the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which is the definition of genocide in international law, specifies mass graves as a requirement. I don’t seem to be able to find it in my copy.
As I understand it, genocide is the systemic attempt to eliminate a group or part of a group by targeting individuals just because they are members of that group. Mind you, that definition goes back to 1948. If you’re aware of more recent case law that modifies the definition, please share.

Posted by: Kukulkan | Feb 23 2022 7:31 utc | 312

Russia’s Unsustainable Business Model: Going All In on Oil and Gas | HCSS The Hague – Jan. 2021 |
https://hcss.nl/report/russias-unsustainable-business-model/
—There is a remarkable symbiosis between the Putin regime and the Russian oil and gas industry. Oil and gas are the major source of income for the government. Oil and gas companies will not challenge the primacy of the Kremlin. Gazprom and Rosneft in particular will undertake projects where the geopolitical interests of the Russian government under Putin take preference over commercial considerations.—
Ukrainian territory has not only been a large agricultural supplier but was the manufacturing and industrial base of the Soviet Union. For future survival and due to harsh US economic sanctions, Russia has to expand. Going to war is not an option, usually will make things worse. Most likely Russian leadership felt they have been unfairly put under crippling sanctions … after Putin the deluge.
The US exited Afghanistan and lost a foothold and influence in Central Asia. Russia had to put down the unrest in Belarus and Kazakhstan of Central Asia. Putin is just hanging on … a dangerous development for the leader of a nation with nuclear weapons. China’s Xi Jinping could not be happy with an unstable Russia … eyeing Eastern Mongolia?
Could be that Biden is playing the Iran card, he would need support of the GCC states and a guarantee of peace between Sunni and Shia believers. Signs are Turkey may reconcile with Arab Gulf states … could be a grand slam for the Biden administration although it will not help the domestic agenda and chances for Democrats for Congress in November.
Many headaches for Vlad.

Posted by: Oui | Feb 23 2022 7:43 utc | 313

Keith McClary | 297
Yes. The tweet is errgh “going viral”.
At first the “hooray, this’ll stick it to Putin” crowd were retweeting it hard and fast.
Then the reverse memes started, showing 1000 years of Kievian-Rus history compared with U$A.
There’s been some fierce battles fought on twitter today because of this ^ and I think the State Dept would happily delete, if it were not for the Streisand effect.
The awareness of Kiev as original “Russia” was certainly not what the state department social media intern was striving for.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 23 2022 7:44 utc | 314

RE: #212 by xototox (Germany being brainwashed)
BRAVO. As a german I’d like to sign almost every line. Blackrock, idk, it’s a theory.
What mostly bugs me is the 180 turnaround of the left parties, especially the former left/peace party Die Grünen AND the 180 of the magazine “Der Russenfresser”, formerly known as “Der Spiegel”. Both were traditionally anti-american (which was stupid and exaggerated in its own way).

Posted by: Tapio | Feb 23 2022 8:05 utc | 315

Michaelj72 | 308
STOP MAD VLAD
The “Fleet Street” tabloids may be contemptible.
But the headline writers excel at their craft.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 23 2022 8:18 utc | 316

It also supports a line of thinking held by many right-wing Ukrainian nationalists who say that Ukraine was an established civilization and Russia was a backwater, historically and wades into useless and dangerous “ethno-medieval territory,” according to Atlantic Council senior fellow Ben Judah.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 23 2022 4:03 utc | 288
Ukraine was an established civilization and Russia was a backwater
Ahahahahahah
according to Atlantic Council senior fellow
AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH
Ben Judah.
AAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH

Posted by: Misotheist | Feb 23 2022 8:40 utc | 317

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 23 2022 8:18 utc | 313
rather poor, I would have thought, in any case not needed. The whole of the media, and public thought – left-wing, right-wing, liberal, conservative – have been overtaken by an anti-Putin hysteria, which is founded on very little. It’s almost as though they’re ready to go to war in 1914 style, though of course they haven’t thought out the consequences of that bellicosity for themselves.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 23 2022 8:43 utc | 318

Questions for Paco – or anyone else who may know.
I noticed in reading the Russian Security Council report how they addressed each other.
Putin first used Lavrov’s full name and then when he did turn over the floor to him he
used only Sergey Viktorovich. Lavrov then began by addressing Putin only as Vladimir Vladimirovich.
When is it common or proper to use first and second names?
Is it rude to only use the first name?
What is the significance of the suffix ‘ovich’ or ‘evich’ (as in the case of Dmitry Nikolayevich Kozak)?
In casual conversation would Putin ever be called just Vlad or Lavrov just Serge?
I was captivated by the conversations between the participants. One thing that caught my attention was
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin stressing to the group that he had not met with any of them individually
so as to get their opinions, thus allowing the comments from them all to come without prior influence.
It was also evident that VVP was in charge. No BS allowed – “Just say yes or no!”, “Please sit down!”.
Good stuff.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 23 2022 9:11 utc | 319

Ayyyy seriously, fucking ukies.
Kievan Rus: 879-1240
Are they mad it has “Rus” in the name, lol?
I have all respect for peoples with a convoluted and mixed history.
This respect goes out of a 5th floor window the moment they latch onto any retarded myth of purity or superiority as their guiding ideology
Big “we wuz khans” energy from Ukies, except actual khans ripped the Kievan Rus apart, lol.

Posted by: Misotheist | Feb 23 2022 9:13 utc | 320

So Putin is just going back and repeating 1943/44 by throwing the Nazis out of Ukraine and liberating the suffering masses from the fascist yoke?
Ich verstehe…

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Feb 23 2022 9:26 utc | 321

Waynoro
The evitch just means son of and ovna means daughter of. So Vlad’s father was also Vlad, while Lavrov’s dad was Viktor.
It is a very old Germanic/Viking naming method, which Icelanders STILL use with no sirnames. It works well in a small community. In English we still have traces of it through the many names ending in son ie Johnson, Williamson, but these have morphed into permanent names. 1000 years ago someone was called Fred Williamson and somehow his kids and grandkids kept the same name.
From reading Russian novels the naming system is complex and as for children they are called a whole variety of diminutives – just as we used to do with Kates, Lizzies, Betty etc. However in Russia they seem to use a whole variety of diminutives for the same child.

Posted by: watcher | Feb 23 2022 9:27 utc | 322

1. The recognition of LNR and DNR hasnt changed anything: Ukraine needs money from the West, now even more after the Western war hpye that has caused a capital flight. Russia is able to keep the war hype going and thus keep draining Ukraine. Private investors wont put their capital into Ukraine. Who is going to pay to keep Ukraine afloat?
2. Germany needs Russian gas for (a) keeping its industry competitive and (b) keeping the common man in line. Before the NS2 suspension, rising energy costs didnt have a face. Now, Scholz and the Greens own the decision and will be held responsible. Scholz and the Greens lit the fuse for their own demise.
3. Asian societies will keep gaining wealth and thus will be consuming more gas. Demand for Russian gas will rise, not fall. Russia doesnt need the European consumer, it can simply sell its gas to Asia. The current arrogance of European so called leaders will make it very difficult to get new gas deals, when the consequneces become apparent. When Power to Siberia 2 is up and running, tapping into the gas fields that supply Europe, how will Europe convince Russia to keep selling its gas to them?

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 23 2022 9:51 utc | 323

watcher 320
I was able to trace my ancestry back through English parish records until I got to where people only had the one name, then it become pretty much impossible to trace further. Off memory I think that was around the 1500’s

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 23 2022 9:53 utc | 324

Misotheist 317
Try looking up cossack history on the net and you run into a lot of Ukie fiction. They have been busy building themselves a fictional history based on the Zaporozhian cossacks yet have chosen a little known dialect as their national language that has nothing to do with cossacks. That place really is a clown show.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 23 2022 10:05 utc | 325

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 23 2022 9:51 utc | 321

1. The recognition of LNR and DNR hasnt changed anything: Ukraine needs money from the West, now even more after the Western war hpye that has caused a capital flight. Russia is able to keep the war hype going and thus keep draining Ukraine. Private investors wont put their capital into Ukraine. Who is going to pay to keep Ukraine afloat?

And puzzlingly, mindblowingly, the Western media propaganda machine is amplifying the war hype to Ukraine’s detriment beyond anything Putin could ever hope to do with the means available to him.
A classic judo throw – turn the strength of the enemy against himself.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 23 2022 10:27 utc | 326

So now that Nordstream 2 is off the table, wouldn’t if be funny if Southstream, (famously blocked by Merkel’s Germany precisely because they wanted to gain from a NS2..) suddenly came back on the table?
Wouldn’t it be ironic, if the real winners of this crisis ended up being ‘evil’ Erdogan’s Turkey, the victims of German 90’s subterfuge Balkan states, German bank-rape victims Greece, and Realpolitik eternal survivors Italy?

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 23 2022 10:52 utc | 327

Just another thought re NS2: Cancellation of NS2 could have been part of a EU sanction package. Scholz must have known what was going to happen. This would have meant that Germany had lost control of the decision making. On EU level, Germany would have to fight with Poland and the Baltic states in case it wanted to restart NS2. Those states would have gotten leverage vis a vis Germany. Taking NS2 out of the equation means that only Germany can decide to either cancel or restart.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 23 2022 10:57 utc | 328

waynorinorway 316
Putin can be very casual, but it is a thing of his that when doing things officially, everyone must be addressed by proper titles and all proper ceremony observed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 23 2022 11:01 utc | 329

There is another angle to this: the axis Russia-China may soon expand to include Iran. With negotiations in Vienna in their final stage, a new deal is at arm’s length. Once sanctions will be lifted, Iran’s economy will get a tremendous boost. Iran’s oil and gas supplies to the world will enable a high drop of world market energy prices. I just launched an article on the subject: https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2022/02/23/iran-lachende-derde-in-de-strijd-tussen-rusland-en-de-vs/
Viewers can easily translate the Dutch text by hitting the ‘translate’ box at the right upper corner.

Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 23 2022 11:13 utc | 330

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 22 2022 22:11 utc | 199 — “FWIW – Blinken cancels meet with Lavrov…”
Because he finally understands what the Chinese taught him at the Anchorage Shelling: he is not qualified to speak from a position of strength — not to the Russians, not to anybody — no matter how hard he dreams of becoming a truly powerful kick-arse player.
And don’t count on this self-deluded, self-worshipping dual-citizen to thank the Chinese for teaching him the rudimentary manners that his mom and his wife failed to teach him.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Feb 23 2022 11:22 utc | 331

To keep it simple, I am at this bar to get away from the usual Anglo/Zionist MSM bullshit and to learn from b, and our educated and erudite barflies. Thanks.

Posted by: Paul | Feb 23 2022 11:27 utc | 332

Let’s take a look at these events and acts from the spirit and the letter of the Helsinki Final Act of 1975:
https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/5/c/39501.pdf
(please take the time to read and reflect)

Posted by: JB | Feb 23 2022 11:50 utc | 333

@kiwiklown | Feb 23 2022 11:22 utc | 329

Because he finally understands what the Chinese taught him at the Anchorage Shelling: he is not qualified to speak from a position of strength — not to the Russians, not to anybody — no matter how hard he dreams of becoming a truly powerful kick-arse player.

Yes, that show from a year ago in Anchorage was something to behold. I watched it several times.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2022 11:50 utc | 334

@Antoinetta III | Feb 22 2022 15:06 utc
“Without the gas from *NORD-STREAM 2*, Germany and other RECIPIENTS (?) of this gas will sooner rather than later have a wintertime ‘freeze in the dark’, period. If this affects a few million Europeans, even if for only a few days, Germany and the others affected will be down on their knees like supplicants before the Czar, begging Russia to send gas through Nord-Stream 2.”
—
1.
*Nord Stream 2* gas pipeline has NEVER (as of @10:22 23.02.2022) delivered a single m3 of Russian gas to Europe because EU/NATO/USA bureaucracy didn’t “certified” it.
2./
The main ACTIVE gas pipeline that supplies Europe wiht Russian natural gas (covering ~1/4 to 1/3 of it’s consumption) is *Nord Stream 1*. All this “NORD STREAM 2 sanctioning”/”threat of sanctioning” bullshit is simply a distraction for uneducated plebs.
GOOGLE SEARCH “Nord Stream 1 capacity”
GOOGLE SEARCH “GERMANY natural gas consumption”

Posted by: LongCOVID | Feb 23 2022 11:51 utc | 335

I pay 6 rubles per Cu M of nat. gaz and use 160 cm a month = 13 bucks for heat, hot H2O and cooking. This would be 80 bucks if I used 1000 Cu m.
Germania just cut their own peoples throat for the USA – Again.

Posted by: GMC | Feb 23 2022 11:58 utc | 336

@watcher | Feb 23 2022 9:27 utc | 320

It is a very old Germanic/Viking naming method, which Icelanders STILL use with no sirnames. It works well in a small community. In English we still have traces of it through the many names ending in son ie Johnson, Williamson, but these have morphed into permanent names. 1000 years ago someone was called Fred Williamson and somehow his kids and grandkids kept the same name.

True. We have the same in Norway today. Hansen (son of Hans) etc. are very common surnames, so much so that they were considered ‘low value’ 100 years ago and many chose new names, including my grandfather whose surname used to be Andersen. But my grandmother’s maiden name was Landmark and it was inconceivable for her to marry a man with a -sen name. Therefore, my grandfather took a ‘better’ surname from one of Henrik Ibsen’s plays: The Lady From The Sea. We still use that family name today.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2022 12:06 utc | 337

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 23 2022 9:11 utc | 316
In Russian, [full given name] [full patronymic] is absolutely polite, unlike in countries where you would add “mister President/minister” or something like that, and perhaps more. Adding family name is like introducing the person.
That contrasts with Poland, no patronymics, adding Mr/Ms (pan, pani) obligatory, and for absolute politeness, you add something like “esteemed”, e.g. members of PiS refer to “szanowny pan prezes”, esteemed mister chairman (PiS is almost a cult).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 23 2022 12:21 utc | 338

Bedtime for this Aussie. History usually happens while we’re asleep down under. We wake up, load up b’s blog and find there’s already 147 comments. Last to know…
Meanwhile Morrison has placed sanctions on the Russians. They must know it’s serious now… watch out Putler!!

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 23 2022 12:27 utc | 339

Atown | Feb 23 2022 5:24 utc | 300
I still don’t get it. Yes, too many dead civilians over the past 7 years, but no mass graves in the sense of the ethnic Ukrainian military is killing all the ethnic Russians they can find and bulldozing their bodies into hastily dug pits.

What are you trying to prove? Did you see those mass graves? Do you know how these people were killed? You mention collateral damage! There are videos showing how several prisoners were assassinated by the nazis: the prisoner is put on the floor, a pan on his head and the edge on his neck, then a nazi jumps on the pan with both feet. And you are calling this collateral damage, you fucking bastard nazi troll!

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 23 2022 12:30 utc | 340

About the blissful warmth of spring. EU survived winter by reducing production of energy intensive goods, the ensuing problems are not in heating but in industry and agriculture, and ultimately, inflation.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 23 2022 12:31 utc | 341

I tried to post this earlier but it didn’t go thru so excuse a double post if it happens.
Posted by: watcher | Feb 23 2022 9:27 utc | 320
Thanks watcher, I suspected as much. Here in Norway it’s still evident, so many Hansens,
Olsens, and so forth.
It’s late in the thread and Putin’s speech and the Sec. Council reads are so solemn I need a break. So in the old days when we still had telephone books the question was why are there so many Hansens listed in the phone book. The answer of course was ‘because they all have phones’. (The joke worked for Smiths in England too.
As a general rule the ‘sens’ are Norskies or Danes and the ‘sons’ are Swedes.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 23 2022 9:53 utc | 322
Peter, tracing back that far prolly means you are descended from royalty! Of course John Cleary would likely agree that could be an insult rather than a compliment. And yeah, re your 327, they weren’t talkin’ sports.
And now thanks to the esteemed Mr. Piotr Berman @ | Feb 23 2022 12:21 utc | 336 for your further explanation.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 23 2022 12:32 utc | 342

Posted by: Oui | Feb 23 2022 7:43 utc | 310
And again imperialist propaganda from A to Z. Worrying about Russia, worrying Putin… LOL. The ressources of the Russian territory are very, very important, at least twice the ressources of the yankees. It is the very reason why the yankees want to loot the Russian ressources!
Beware: Trolls are back.

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 23 2022 12:39 utc | 343

Correction #341:
Worrying about Russia, worrying ABOUT Putin… LOL.

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 23 2022 12:47 utc | 344

@LongCOVID | Feb 23 2022 11:51 utc | 333
Sure, NS2 is operational but not in operation. But actual NG demand is already exceeding supply. Several plants in UK, France, and Germany have already shut down due to excessive natural gas prices. And demand is still rising.
French NPP are rapidly aging and suffering more and more outages every year. Germany is shutting down the last 3 NPP and prepares shutting down coal thermal power stations. As Germany cannot create electricity from the farts out of Habeck’s and Baerbock’s butts, and wind and solar need backup electricity production, there is no alternative to natural gas. Even if wind and solar can fill the gap of coal and nuke, including additional demand from EV, which is more than doubtful for the next two decades, still the gaps of darkness and calm must be filled.
Further on, the EU is pressing for exit from coal, especially in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. That will generate additional NG demand. Worldwide it is on the rise even more, especially in the Global South. The US are raising NG production from fracking, but may run into exhaustion sooner than the EPA predicts, as the majority of shale plays is already beyong maximum capacity (ok Marcellus has been halted, that may be reversed and buy some 3 or 4 years more).
Additional pipeline capacity would hold natural gas prices down, while LNG is 1) insufficient by capacity and 2) volatile in pricing. Not to mention environmental and climate problems with fracking.
NS2 could have relieved the tensions on European energy markets. The German government, and the EU decided against. Good riddance. Gazprom is compensated by rising gas prices, while Wintershall, Shell, and other western investors will be screwed, or sue the German government. Average Germans and EU citizens are left to foot the bill.

Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 23 2022 12:58 utc | 345

waynorinorway 340
Peasants. I don’t know how far back but the Church was strong in early England. All baptisms and Marriages and deaths were recorded in the parish registers. Some have been lost due to churches burning down, but In some region of England all that exist have been digitized. I was lucky and all the ones I needed still existed and had been digitized. I few decades back it would have been a matter of much footslogging around England going to Churches and looking through the old registers. Yeah and my surname ends with son.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 23 2022 13:20 utc | 346

Just so you know, certification of NS2 was most officially suspended already on November 16 last year. There’s a press release by the German Bundesnetzagentur. German only, so the following is my quick machine translation:

Publication date: 11/16/2021
The Bundesnetzagentur temporarily suspended the process for certifying Nord Stream 2 AG as an independent transmission system operator today.
After a thorough examination of the documents, the Bundesnetzagentur came to the conclusion that certification of an operator of the Nord Stream 2 line can only be considered if the operator is organized in a legal form under German law.
Nord Stream 2 AG, based in Zug, Switzerland, has decided not to convert the existing company, but to set up a subsidiary under German law only for the German part of the pipeline. This subsidiary will own and operate the German section of the pipeline. The subsidiary must then itself meet the requirements of the Energy Industry Act for an independent transport network operator (Sections 4a, 4b, 10 to 10e EnWG). The certification process will remain suspended until the transfer of the main assets and human resources to the subsidiary has been completed and the Bundesnetzagentur will be able to check the newly submitted documents from the subsidiary as a new applicant for completeness. If these conditions are met, the Bundesnetzagentur can continue its examination within the remainder of the four-month period provided for by law, draw up a draft decision and submit it to the European Commission for comment as provided for by internal market law.

In short: it’s a complete mess, which the European Commission has deliberately created with German acquiescence. I believe that since the Trump administration started to sabotage the project, there was never any more chance for NS2 to become operating, ever. The last German government (Merkel) must have become aware of this, and so will the current government (Scholz). Everything else is just theater to fool the public in Germany as well as other EU countries, and to shirk responsibility and accountability of course. The latter has been the MO of the European Commission from the get-go, and it’s also been the only thing Merkel (a female) has ever been good at.
There are several pipelines feeding gas into Germany. At least one of them is owned and run by the Kingdom of Norway, completely and exclusively. Norway is the owner as well as the operator. Owner and operator aren’t even different companies, it’s just one Norwegian entity that does everything. No problem there with diversification, competition and fair access. Apparently, the European Commission and the Bundesnetzagentur don’t apply the same laws and regulations with regard to Norway as they apply to Russia.
In any law-abiding, self-respecting, sovereign country Scholz, Merkel, von der Leyen and all the other Hackfressen would be in jail by now, waiting to be tried for high treason. But there we are.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 23 2022 13:23 utc | 347

According to several independent reports coming out of the Donbass, Ukraine has not ceased shelling LDNR territory and is, indeed, continuing to build up troops along the contact line.
Russian electronic warfare measures have been activated to the extent that, according to reports, Ukrainian servicemen are receiving text messages telling them that Russian Federation Troops have been given the go to operate outside of Russia, but that there is still time for you to leave the contact zone and save your life.
Russia is clearly planning for Ukraine’s decision to force the issue in Donbass. It may not come to kinetic warfare, but I unfortunately see that possibility as increasingly likely. Ukraine itself has nothing to gain by contesting Russia militarily, but I do not believe that Ukraine is actually making its own decisions at this point. Zelensky, I suspect, does not have real control over the mercenaries and more nationalist Azov-connected national guardsmen at the contact zone. The US press is already prepping the domestic populace for Zelensky’s replacement–several opinion pieces have called into question his leadership in recent days.
One could argue that the US would benefit in several ways from kinetic warfare between Ukraine and Russia. It would reinforce domestic propaganda as to the bellicose nature of Putin and would be presented as confirming the accuracy of the intelligence leaks of the prior month; it would make it more difficult for European leaders to express any disagreement with future US-directed policies against Russia; and it would also likely lead to Russian casualities, and in general complicate the situation even further for Putin both domestically and internationally.
The US has little to gain from the situation being resolved without warfare at this point.I believe it is willing to sacrifice many Ukrainian lives to make a point.

Posted by: WJ | Feb 23 2022 13:26 utc | 348

Ben Wallace, UK Defence Minister, wants to re-live the Charge of the Light Brigade.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/national/19945620.putin-gone-full-tonto-ukraine-says-defence-secretary/
Scots Guards kicked Tsar Nicholas I and Wallace is ready to do it again.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 23 2022 13:27 utc | 349

Re: Posted by: WJ | Feb 23 2022 13:26 utc | 346
You make several good points and may well be right. If it does kick off, perhaps next week after Biden’s performance at the SOTU (March 1), the obvious consequence will be the liberation of the entire areas of the Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts.
How much further will the Russians go? Well that obviously depends on the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians.
I believe the DPR/LPR will push at least into Far Eastern Kharkiv at least as far as the Oskil River, if they’re feeling adventurous, perhaps as far as the Siverskyi Donets on the outskirts of Kharkiv. Why not create this buffer zone if the opportunity presents?
Having said that, I believe Putin will follow his minimalists instincts and not try to capture the entire Eastern half of the country – but he will definitely want to make a point.
Frankly, the last time things really kicked off in 2015 and when the DPR & LPR had the upper hand they should have been given free reign to capture the entirety of the DPR & LPR oblasts.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 23 2022 13:36 utc | 350

@328 Paul Robert
re: Iran JCPOA renewal
It would be the right thing to do, without any doubt whatsoever. But given the permanent obsession with Iran in US policy circles, I’m not holding my breath. If you need a hint, CNN invited the king of Iran paranoiacs, John Bolton, to share his wisdom with their audience the other day. (And he instantly went on to insult Biden and Macron for being too weak, that deals like Minsk II are bad, diplomacy is a mistake, etc).

Posted by: ptb | Feb 23 2022 13:47 utc | 351

So there you have it: political careerists, on each of them friendly agencies have a huge file, making them prone to blackmail, would be another big piece of the puzzle.
Posted by: xototox | Feb 22 2022 22:59 utc | 212
You’ve glossed over the most important aspect – blackmail – think Epstein – that is the only way to understand the politics of any Western country (including the USA). It is obvious the elites have the goods on every politician of any significance. Any politician they don’t have the goods on is not allowed to rise in the system – it is that simple.
Conversely, if they have the goods on you, and you freely allow them to get ever stronger and stronger goods on you, then you have limitless potential for rise in the system. That was what Epstein was all about – ensuring that the top elites have enough blackmail material on every politician with any potential to get into positions of power, and use that material to make sure that they do what they are told.
Very very rarely someone unexpectedly slips through the net – like Jeremy Corbyn, who was ignored for decades because he was not taken seriously as a potential leader of the Labour Party, but then unexpectedly got voted leader because of his honest and human policies – when such people get into positions of power or potential power they are ruthlessly decimated, as Corbyn was.
Virtually every single western politician, and every single young politician-in-waiting is captive in this way, be they German, British, French, Greek or what have you. Consider every time some apparently principled young politician has tried to stand their ground – yet at a certain point, suddenly they reverse – in every case. Consider Merkel – time after time some issue has cropped up (such as NS2, repeatedly, or sanctions that are highly damaging to German interests, etc), where analyst after analyst has said, “well, this time she is sure to stand up to US pressure because it is so vital to German interests” … but yet again she blatently acts contrary to German interests in response to illegitimate US pressure. After all these years, NS2 construction was hindered and delayed for so long, now it is completed and filled with gas yet still is not opened even with such a chronic gas shortage in Europe in the middle of winter.
You simply cannot understand western politics without understanding the role of Epstein – and his ilk. (Not that all blackmail is paedophilia-based, but it is obviously a major tool in their toolbox; and wherever they can they will certainly use honeypots to try to broaden and deepen the goods on anyone they have other goods on such as fraud, cheating, murder, or whatever it is).
As long as all the politicians in power in the whole of Europe are enmeshed in this convoluted web of blackmail, you cannot expect them to take decisions that are desperately and urgently required in the national interest – no matter how desperately necessary to save the situation from collapse – simply because the top people required to take the decisions are entrapped and unable to make the decision that they know is necessary. Just consider all the strange decisions taken by Western politicians over the last 2 years – time and again – quite unbelievable that serious politicians would take such decisions, yet it happened. View each such decision in isolation and it is incomprehensible – view them all together in the context of systemic blackmail and it all makes sense.
Don’t wait for the people in power to “wake up”, to “open their eyes”, to “get shocked into their senses” … it won’t happen … their only motivation is to save their own skin at all costs, no matter what. The Titanic is headed for the middle of an iceberg – no matter!
Each individual decisionmaker, at every point in time, is trying to save his or her own skin at all costs, nothing else matters. That is the core truth of Western politics, and nothing makes sense without it. As the top elites get more and more desperate, as the system careers closer and closer to doom, the pressure they pile onto the blackmailees becomes ever greater, and they are forced to take decisions that are ever more blatently inappropriate, ever more blatently corrosive, ever more blatently corruptly motivated, ever more blatently offensive to ordinary people. That is precisely what the last two years are about. Anywhere in the West.

Posted by: BM | Feb 23 2022 13:48 utc | 352

xototox@212
Thank you for your post.
I was fascinated by the political discussion shows on German TV when I first moved to Europe in mid-1980’s. Then in the mid 1990’s there was never a show that did NOT include some atlanticist p%%%%. (Can’t remember his name) The focus of these shows began to change completely. This is also about the time Joschka Fischer got a lucrative position in US. Watching this process evolve saddened me, even as I moved back to the belly of the beast.

Posted by: mwm | Feb 23 2022 13:51 utc | 353

barometer check – TTF natgas futures. lets see if we can get some images in here
winter 2022-2023 prices starting to creep up day-to-day, but still within noise band of the past 2 months https://i.imgur.com/B8aD8im.png
winter 2023-2024 prices, which are a better indicator of price actually paid but insensitive to rapid developments, is following its neat slow up-ramp (more than 3x increase since last summer) https://i.imgur.com/CW8OOzv.png

Posted by: ptb | Feb 23 2022 14:10 utc | 354

I do not believe that Ukraine is actually making its own decisions at this point. Zelensky, I suspect, does not have real control over the mercenaries and more nationalist Azov-connected national guardsmen at the contact zone.
Posted by: WJ | Feb 23 2022 13:26 utc | 346
See these words from President Putin’s speech:

Over the past few years, military contingents of NATO countries have been almost constantly present on Ukrainian territory under the pretext of exercises. The Ukrainian troop control system has already been integrated into NATO. This means that NATO headquarters can issue direct commands to the Ukrainian armed forces, even to their separate units and squads.

There it is – the US can directly order individual squads to fire at individual targets, via NATO through Ukraine’s own military communications, without even touching a single Ukrainian commander, let alone Zelensky. If the Russians are issuing text messages to soldiers to surrender, lets hope they can also block and counter the commands from NATO HQ. I am sure they CAN – but they will wait for the opportune moment and do it at scale, perfectly synchronised with other measures (until then they will not show their cards). Probably each unit will receive an order to surrender apparently signed by their own commanding officer, and timed so that the surrender can be received!

Posted by: BM | Feb 23 2022 14:15 utc | 355

The Ukraine crisis has been developing for a long time, and the USA
has systematically ignored quite reasonable Russian concerns. Even
conservative commentators in the USA agree with this, for example
Bret Stephens in today’s NYT.
But what are Putin’s short term aims? These seen extremely vague.
For instance the US is saying that he plans to take Kyiv? Is
this just nonsense? And in Putin’s long speech he said that the
perpetrators of the massacre in Odessa in 2014 were known and would
be punished. How is he going to do that?
I worry that we could get into a big war here, almost by accident.
Other wars have started for less reason.

Posted by: Nick | Feb 23 2022 14:18 utc | 356

I still don’t get it. Yes, too many dead civilians over the past 7 years, but no mass graves in the sense of the ethnic Ukrainian military is killing all the ethnic Russians they can find and bulldozing their bodies into hastily dug pits.
It is apparent that you are in denial….
The citizens of the DonBas are being liquidated because the UkroNazis want to destroy their language, culture, religion, ethnicity.
There have been, and continue to be mass executions of the elderly, women, and children by the punishers.
You, are not there, and it is apparent, you listen too much to CIA/MI6/NSA propaganda.
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 23 2022 14:31 utc | 357

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 23 2022 14:31 utc | 355
Still, it would be good to have the documented evidence of mass executions, the names of the victims and the cause of their deaths so that lies can be clearly distinguished from truth.
Without this we end up, for example as we are now, wondering if things like Srebrenica ever took place at all …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 23 2022 14:35 utc | 358

Posted by: Oui | Feb 23 2022 7:43 utc | 310

Could be that Biden is playing the Iran card, he would need support of the GCC states and a guarantee of peace between Sunni and Shia believers.
…
Many headaches for Vlad.

This is simply just not a possibility for Biden (or any american president going forward) for any reason, even if it makes sense.
Why? Because America’s Iran policy is completely and utterly controlled by “israel-firsters”, israel and the israel lobby and neocons of various stripes and flavours who are ideologically bound to the destruction of Iran.
They will ensure this quite useful lever of geopolitical advantage is never available to the US government.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 23 2022 14:52 utc | 359

@BM | Feb 23 2022 13:48 utc | 353
I agree, blackmail explains it. It has been my opinion for a long time as well. Thank you for explaining it.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2022 15:58 utc | 360

@Roger #260
Your understanding is highly flawed.
The “independence movement” is nothing more than the usual clique of political opportunists that arise under US protectorates. The KMT was/is corrupt in one way, the DPP is corrupt in another.
Taiwan as the Republic of China did not change its “constitution”, did not change its form of government, and the KMT still exists as a political party much as it existed as primus inter pares in 1949 when it fled the mainland to Taiwan.
The main difference between Taiwan’s government today vs. up until 2005 – was that there were “permanent” members of the National Assembly. The National Assembly was originally the equivalent of the US electoral college; however after 1949 – it could not possibly be reconstituted since the regions it represented were all Communist, so the members were all made permanent.
Unsurprisingly, this also had the nice effect of cementing the KMT into power.
The change in 2005 was the termination of the last of these permanent National Assembly members followed by the self-termination of the National Assembly – which opened the door to allow other political parties to be able to win elections.
The DPP has used the “Independence” issue to wedge its way over the KMT recently, but “Independence” is entirely symbolic and stupid given the high degree of actual economic interaction between China and Taiwan.
The KMT still retains significant representation in Taiwan.
Nonetheless, the main point remains: the government of Taiwan is the same government that was created in China in 1912.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 23 2022 16:12 utc | 361

@ S.P. Korolev | Feb 23 2022 6:04 utc | 306.. thanks for your comments offering a broader overview on Yuzhmash… it makes sense why putin expressed concern about this corporation in his speech… i don’t know how any of this is going to play out, but this place is not within the donbass.. russia will have to figure out a way to defang all of this..
@ WJ | Feb 23 2022 13:26 utc | 349.. thanks for your comment with interesting viewpoints that i hadn’t read before… i agree with much of it, in particular the last line of your post.. this might explain why the usa embassy staff in kiev relocated to lvov and then to poland.. if you think of this as the command center for the actions unfolding in ukraine, with russia stating they will go after the command center, the cia folks operating within the embassy would want to evacuate outside of ukraine..

Posted by: james | Feb 23 2022 16:30 utc | 362

Roger @152
Well said!
The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 says clearly Taiwan as part of China.
2003 the UN’s “Final Clauses of Multilateral Treaties, Handbook” states:

…regarding the Taiwan Province of China, the Secretary-General follows the General Assembly’s guidance incorporated in resolution 2758 (XXVI) of the General Assembly of 25 October 1971 on the restoration of the lawful rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations. The General Assembly decided to recognize the representatives of the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations. Hence, instruments received from the Taiwan Province of China will not be accepted by the Secretary-General in his capacity as depositary.

c1ue is totally bought into the Taiwan separtist’s warped version of international law and histroy.
Just check out, c1ue, how Taiwan is officalled called in the Olympic Games: Chinese Taipei . This is the offical name for TW when it is allowed, with the nod from PRC, to join any other international organisations.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 23 2022 18:43 utc | 363

Atown | Feb 23 2022 5:24 utc | 300
I still don’t get it. Yes, too many dead civilians over the past 7 years, but no mass graves in the sense of the ethnic Ukrainian military is killing all the ethnic Russians they can find and bulldozing their bodies into hastily dug pits.
Would you mind pointing out what part of the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which is the definition of genocide in international law, specifies mass graves as a requirement. I don’t seem to be able to find it in my copy.
––––
As I understand it, genocide is the systemic attempt to eliminate a group or part of a group by targeting individuals just because they are members of that group. Mind you, that definition goes back to 1948. If you’re aware of more recent case law that modifies the definition, please share.
Posted by: Kukulkan | Feb 23 2022 7:31 utc | 309
Atown | Feb 23 2022 5:24 utc | 300
ditto above
What are you trying to prove? Did you see those mass graves? Do you know how these people were killed? You mention collateral damage! There are videos showing how several prisoners were assassinated by the nazis: the prisoner is put on the floor, a pan on his head and the edge on his neck, then a nazi jumps on the pan with both feet. And you are calling this collateral damage, you fucking bastard nazi troll!
Posted by: Olivier | Feb 23 2022 12:30 utc | 338
Dear Kukulkan and Olivier,
I didn’t intend to troll and I hadn’t read Kukulkan’s reply when I wrote the above. I am not making a legal argument. I am trying to understand the tactic of using the term “genocide” and not “ethnic cleansing” or something else, and perhaps over-wrote my reply in a distracting way. My post-tertiary educated friends who gleefully voted for Hillary Clinton can open the NYTimes to find that their reporter hasn’t sweated a drop in diminishing Putin’s use of the word. A successful tactic would be one that caused the Times’ of the world to contort words and create cognitive dissonance in their readers. Why set the bar so high? Even if acts have occurred during the past seven years that fit the (relatively vague) definition of genocide in the UN, I, a USAan sympathetic to the complexity of the RF journey over the past 30 years, was distracted by the use of the word.

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 18:50 utc | 364

@lulu #364
You are coming into this discussion very late and are confused as to what is actually being discussed.
The origin of this discussion was whether Taiwan vs. China is comparable to the Donetsk/Luhansk/South Ossetia/Kosovo situations – specifically in the context over whether China (the PRC) would recognize the 2 former polities.
What I said was that Taiwan is not the same because the government of Taiwan existed before the People’s Republic of China. Furthermore, that Taiwan/ROC enjoyed at least some degree of international UN recognition – including the de facto China seat on the UN Security Council prior to 1970 as well as recognition by double digit UN members today (albeit none of the major countries).
So your assertion about Taiwan’s recognition in the UN in 2003 is frankly irrelevant, nor do I care about who is right or not right concerning “the rightful government of China”.
Equally, I would frankly be very surprised if China (the PRC) recognized either Luhansk or Donetsk because their consistent policy in the past 2 decades is to let others take the full brunt of US displeasure, whatever China’s views on a “multipolar world” might be – and that this policy has nothing to do with Taiwan.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 23 2022 18:52 utc | 365

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 18:53 utc | 366

As for the questions/guess whether China will recognise the newly independent Donbas twins, please check the excellent post from mastameta @74
Thank you very much for the information and lively discussion. Special thanks to karlof1 for posting Putin’s long speech!

Posted by: lulu | Feb 23 2022 19:00 utc | 367

For Peter AU1 and those who couldn’t read twitter’s posts due to its log-in restriction and pop-up blocking, I’ve found a few tricks to get around:
– When you go the twitte account(s) you like to read, you should use your mouse/arrow to pull down the bar on the right side of your computer as quickly as posssible instead of reading first, which allow you to get access to more posts from the past;
-Once you click/open one post and you’ll see this, for example: https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1496532584867717127?cxt=HHwWjoCzvZ-d4MQpAAAA, you need to delete the postfix/suffix pAAAA and then you can read the post and replies without any the annoying blockings.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 23 2022 19:04 utc | 368

RE: Genocide
Here are two articles:
https://tass.com/world/1405755
“On February 16, [2022], the Russian Investigative Committee announced that it was opening a criminal case over the discovery of mass graves of civilians killed in the shelling of Donbass.”
and:
“As proof corroborating her words, Zakharova attached photos of tombstones honoring the victims slaughtered by Ukrainian security forces in the Donbass republics to her commentary.”
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-opens-criminal-case-into-discovery-of-mass-graves-of-295-civilians-in-donbas-articleshow.html
“Sputnik stated that from August 2021 to October 2021, at least five spontaneous mass graves were discovered in the village of Slavyanoserbsk, in the residential area of Sokogorovka Pervomaisk, the village of Vidnoe-1 near Lugansk and also on the outskirts of the village of Verkhneshevyrevka, Krasnodonsky district.”
I don’t know what a “spontaneous mass grave” would be except bodies lying covered by debris where they were killed by a bomb as is suggested by “in the shelling” in the first article. It is clearly not, as I found suggested elsewhere, “buried by friends and relatives in the vicinity of others who died in an illegal military action which killed civilians.” It isn’t quite “many bodies, one hole interred by the killer after the fact.” I guess with powerful bombing at a distance it isn’t really that different. Are civilians still being targeted without any possible military purpose or is most of this from 2014?

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 19:25 utc | 369

@ Atown stop ducking the UN definition of genocide. i know it is inconvenient for your “argument”, do you also pretend the US didn’t commit genocide in Iraq?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 23 2022 19:34 utc | 370

…. they never quote any applicable “international law.”. . .Clear violation? Recognizing republics? Go figure. It’s sorta like China’s islands are “illegal.”
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 23 2022 3:36 utc | 278
Don Bacon @278 re ‘international law violation’ quoted by all western outlets, including the UN head
I am also wondering about the same question, what is the law they are referring to?
And nobody wants to talk about refusal of comply with the Minsk-2 by Kiev.

Posted by: bystander 04 | Feb 23 2022 19:56 utc | 371

@ xototox #212
and
@ mwm #354
both these comments, and many others in between, praise xototox’s concise description why German government is behaving in the way which is not in the interest of their nation. The mwm is correct about the timeframe when the change began. The media led the way with sidelining people like Peter Scholl-Latour, who wrote in early 2000’s about the coming of the new cold war, and about Russia squeezed in a vise (Russland im Zangengriff, 2004, I believe). His books were on bestseller lists almost every year and that was not seen kindly by the powers to be.

Posted by: bystander 04 | Feb 23 2022 20:11 utc | 372

@c1ue | Feb 23 2022 18:52 utc | 366,

nor do I care about who is right or not right concerning “the rightful government of China”.

Historically and practically speaking, People’s Republic of China is the successor of Republic of China. Although ROC still exists in Taiwan, it is de facto namesake only after Lee’s regime in late 1990s. There were reasons why ROC held the China seat at UN up to 1970 and why that seat went to PRC.
Facts are facts and opinions are opinions. Whether you care/like or not or your opinion on this really does not matter.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Feb 23 2022 20:41 utc | 373

I know we’ve moved on, but perhaps I can add this to ‘some bits on ukraine’ as it is described in “Land of the Firebird – the Beauty of Old Russia’ by Suzanne Massie”[1980]:

The Kievan kingdom which so creatively took on the Christianity of Byzantium was ruled from the city of Kiev. Called in Russian sagas “the Mother of Russian cities,” Kiev stood at the crossroads of the great river routes linking Constantinople and Byzantium with the West; it was chief among a group of principalities which then covered most of the south and center of Russia. The Kievans were prosperous traders, taking honey, amber, wax and furs down their meandering rivers to Constantinople from which they returned with silks and objects of art. Great Kiev, “the radiant and many-colored,” stood high on the banks of the river Dnieper. The city in the 10th and 11th centuries was one of the wealthiest and most animated cities of Europe — larger than Paris, which at the time had eighty thousand inhabitants, and twice as large as the small city of London…Children of Kievan princes married sovereigns or princesses of the ruling houses of England, Germany, France, Sweden, Hungary and Byzantium…Queen Elizabeth II of England traces her ancestry to Yaroslav[sixth son of Vladimir,greatest of Kievan princes]…

Posted by: juliania | Feb 23 2022 20:53 utc | 374

@ Atown stop ducking the UN definition of genocide. i know it is inconvenient for your “argument”, do you also pretend the US didn’t commit genocide in Iraq?
Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 23 2022 19:34 utc | 371
I am not making an argument. I want to understand if there is a genocide/ethnic cleansing, if it’s ongoing, and if the tactic of calling the actions of the Ukraine military/militias a “genocide” is a good one and why. I have found some reports that claim genocide. No one else has shared anything that I can use to build an understanding. USA committed war crimes by attacking Iraq. I don’t know if it was a genocide.

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 20:55 utc | 375

https://internationallaw.uslegal.com/international-human-rights/universal-human-rights-instruments/the-right-of-self-determination/
The Right of Self-Determination
Chapter 1, Article 1, part 2 states that purpose of the UN Charter is: “To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace”
Article 1 in both the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) read: “All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.”….
…The territoriality issue inevitably would lead to more conflicts and independence movements within many nations and challenges to the assumption that territorial integrity is as important as self-determination. However, most sovereign states do not recognize the right to self-determination through secession in their constitutions.
………….
From that is seems self determination is international law and this is being challenged by territorial integrity. Considering Ukraine passed laws essentially outlawing ethnic Russian ethnicity , self determination wins I think.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 23 2022 21:15 utc | 376

is it a tactic to call the US invasion of Iraq a war crime Atown? you’re selling propaganda, the best you can. few here if any will fall for it.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 23 2022 21:46 utc | 377

is it a tactic to call the US invasion of Iraq a war crime Atown? you’re selling propaganda, the best you can. few here if any will fall for it.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 23 2022 21:46 utc | 378
I apologize, but I don’t understand what you are trying to say or why you are now talking about Iraq instead of helping me understand why what has happened in Ukraine since 2014 is a genocide.

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 21:57 utc | 378

look at the UN definition. I am sorry, I understand you don’t like it, you many not like people referring to birds as “birds”, but they are simply applying the relevant definition.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 23 2022 22:14 utc | 379

look at the UN definition. I am sorry, I understand you don’t like it, you many not like people referring to birds as “birds”, but they are simply applying the relevant definition.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 23 2022 22:14 utc | 380
peace

Posted by: Atown | Feb 23 2022 22:37 utc | 380

Re the demise of NS2,
The following gem is extracted from CNN’s article with the title “Good riddance NS2.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/23/opinions/nord-stream-2-germany-putin-gas-energy-hockenos/index.html
quote:”In fact, the pipeline was wildly controversial from the get-go, over a decade ago. Natural gas after all is a fossil fuel, the combustion of which emits high quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. In Germany, natural gas is responsible for 20% of carbon emissions — in other words, it’s not in the least bit climate friendly.”
I mean, how can the combustion of methane (the principal constituent of Natural Gas) generate great amounts of methane? It will generate CO2 and Water and liberate the trace gasses like Helium that are present in the mix.
Now, the gaseous Natural Gas piped from Russian would be replaced by LNG, liquefied Natural Gas.
At most, natural gas may be emitted accidentally by a pipeline when same is ruptured or leaks via some defective joint but it is generally minimal.
However, LNG is a different animal. Gaseous LNG must be compressed and cooled until it liquefies at around -160C, after which it is cooled further via refrigeration until it reached as low a temperature as possible, circa -198C or less.
it is then transferred to cryogenic tanks which are big thermos type vessels generally able to withstand 7 to 10 ATM before safety valves vent the excess pressure.
Even though these vessels are carefully insulated, heat leaks towards the inside and raises the liquid’s temperature. Pressure rises as the liquid heats up until the safety valve opens and releases natural gas to the atmosphere. the liquid boils, and therefore cools until its temperature drops and pressure is reduced to below venting specs. this repeats itself all along and these vessels emit gases periodically until the gas is eventually drawn or exhausted.
Mind you, while in the storage tank awaiting transfer to the carrying vessel, it will vent as needed unless the storage tank is equipped with a cooling system, expensive to acquire and install, and expensive to run.
Once in the carrying vessel the same cycle will repeat itself until destination is reached. whatever has been loaded will not reach destination in its entirety. Some will be spewed along the way.
Then when destination is reached, the receiving tank must be cooled to reduce the back pressure so transfer will be possible from the carrier to the receiving terminal. This is sometimes done by venting methane (Natural Gas) to the atmosphere as required and it may be a substantial quantity depending on the pumps capacity to overcome back pressure.
From the receiving shore terminal, cryogenic tanker trucks will be loaded, and transported to the users or distributor facility where it will be vaporized to be used or piped further as a gas.
So if the environment is a concern LNG is not the answer. More methane ends up in the atmosphere than thru gas pipelines.
But CNN is serving Kool aid to its flocks, as usual.

Posted by: CarlD | Feb 23 2022 23:36 utc | 381

> Ukrainians are wondering if their comedian-turned-president can handle the world stage – CNN, Feb 11, 2022
by Michael Bociurkiw
is it THAT VERY Michael, who is a loyal son of high-rank UPA(M) officer, loving to photo himself in nazi UPA(M) uniform and who for years was a haed of “impartial” OSCE SMM in Ukraine ???

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 1:08 utc | 382

@ Arioch | Feb 24 2022 1:08 utc | 383
yes… by the look of it.. the same michael… looks like he is a neighbour of mine as he now lives on vancouver island…
Michael Bociurkiw (born 1961[1] in Canada) is a Canadian journalist, public relations worker and Ukraine expert. He is of Ukrainian descent and grew up in Ottawa, Canada.[2][3] He has lived in Sidney on Vancouver Island since 2008.[4][3]
Bociurkiw worked as a journalist in North America and Asia.[5] He has worked as a communications consultant for the United Nations, UNICEF and the World Health Organization. At the parliamentary elections in Ukraine in 2012 he was present as an election observer for Canada.[3]
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bociurkiw
Bociurkiv has been spokesman for the OSCE wartime observer mission in Ukraine since 2014 and has become known around the world in this capacity; his office as OSCE observer is in Kyiv.[6][2] He was among the first neutral persons to gain access to the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash site.[7]

Posted by: james | Feb 24 2022 2:15 utc | 383

I am not making an argument. I want to understand if there is a genocide/ethnic cleansing, if it’s ongoing, and if the tactic of calling the actions of the Ukraine military/militias a “genocide” is a good one and why. I have found some reports that claim genocide. No one else has shared anything that I can use to build an understanding. USA committed war crimes by attacking Iraq. I don’t know if it was a genocide.

https://hawaii.edu/powerkills/GENOCIDE.HTM

One meaning is that defined by international treaty, the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. This makes genocide a punishable crime under international law, and defines it as:
any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
Note that only the first clause includes outright killing, while the other clauses cover non-killing ways of eliminating a group. I will call this definition of genocide the legal meaning, since it is now part of international law.
Regardless of this definition and doubtlessly influenced by the Holocaust, ordinary usage and that by students of genocide have tended to wholly equate it with the murder and only the murder by government of people due to their national, ethnical, racial or religious (or, what is called indelible) group membership. This way of viewing genocide has become so ingrained that it seems utterly false to say, for example, that the United States committed genocide against ethnic Hawaiians by forcing their children to study English and behave according to American norms and values. Yet, in the legal view of genocide, this is arguably true. The equating of genocide with the killing people because of their indelible group membership I will label the common meaning of genocide.

Posted by: Lorna MacKay | Feb 24 2022 4:25 utc | 384

Wow, b. certainly has humiliated himself.
First it was Kazakhstan – where it became clear there was absolutely no US “colour” revolution.
Now, he’s spent weeks berating Biden’s simple (and quite accurate) claim that Russia will move militarily on the Ukraine.
What are today’s excuses b.????
Utterly Pathetic…….

Posted by: jt | Feb 24 2022 5:26 utc | 385

@LuRenJia #374
Yet again, you are very late to the conversation.
China (PRC) is what it is. Opinions do not matter.
Nor is your assertion about Taiwan in the 1990s vs. today the least bit relevant.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 24 2022 17:05 utc | 386

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