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February 22, 2022
Some Additional Bits On Ukraine

Yesterday Russia recognized the Donbas republics. This seems to include all of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions which are largely controlled by the Ukrainian government forces. Here are some bits on the fall-out.

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The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has halted the certification of the Nordstream II pipeline that is supposed to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany. That means higher energy prices for Germany and higher inflation.

Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE – 13:19 UTC · 22 Feb 2022
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

It is political harakiri and will therefore most likely be reversed.

I wonder why Scholz took this sensational step. The U.S. reaction seems way more muted.

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Showing 'unwavering' support by running away from the conflict:

US relocates Ukraine embassy staff to Poland

"For security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland. Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services," Blinken said in a statement, adding that the U.S. commitment to Ukraine remained "unwavering."


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Ceasefire violation as counted by the OSCE special monitoring mission to Ukraine (note the changes to the Y-axes).

Sunday was a bit calmer than Saturday but the numbers are still at a much higher level than usual.

I find it likely that the sudden increase of artillery explosions from 80 per day to over 1,200 per day over the last week had an effect on the timing of Putin's decision.

Wednesday, 16.2.2022


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Thursday, 17.2.2022


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Friday, 18.2.2022


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Saturday and Sunday, 19.2.2022, 20.2.2022


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Anti-Zelensky op-eds in U.S. media:

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I agree with this Saker take:

The first thing which I want to point out is that this was a very carefully orchestrated event, and I don’t just mean today’s live meetings and signing.  For those of us who follow Russian politics very closely there can be no doubts that all this was prepared long BEFORE the Russian ultimatum to the West.

This is “the plan” which Putin once openly referred to.

Let me make this clear: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation.  It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.

Next, that must be repeated again, this is NOT about the LDNR, the Donbass or even the Ukraine, this is about a new security architecture on Europe and, therefore, on our entire planet.
…
Next, I want to mention four specific threats made by Putin today (note, since the PR folks at the Kremlin are still working at their usual snail’s pace, I will have to make them by memory, please keep that in mind):

  • Those responsible for the massacre in Odessa will be punished by Russia.
  • Putin is demanding an immediate cessation of the shelling and shooting along the LOC.
  • Russia will physically prevent the Ukraine from US/NATO deploying offensive weapons to threaten Russia.
  • Russia will show Banderastan how to organize a *real* “decommunization” (after indicating that the Ukraine was created by the CPSU).

Again, I will repeat here what I wrote above: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation.  It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.

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Address by the President of the Russian Federation – February 21, 2022:

Actually, as I have already said, Soviet Ukraine is the result of the Bolsheviks’ policy and can be rightfully called “Vladimir Lenin’s Ukraine.” He was its creator and architect. This is fully and comprehensively corroborated by archival documents, including Lenin’s harsh instructions regarding Donbass, which was actually shoved into Ukraine. And today the “grateful progeny” has overturned monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. They call it decommunization.

You want decommunization? Very well, this suits us just fine. But why stop halfway? We are ready to show what real decommunizations would mean for Ukraine.

1654-1917 – various Russian Tsars, 1922 – Lenin, 1945 – Stalin, 1954 – Khrushchev


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Posted by b on February 22, 2022 at 13:35 UTC | Permalink
Comments

@vinnieoh
China is careful about encouraging any independence movement because Beijing does not recognize the independence of Taiwan and must protect itself from the CIA’s Uighur movement. China’s logic is obvious. But of course the world is full of contradictions. International law both recognizes the right of self-determination and the right of national sovereignty. The UN serves its member states and not “people yearning to be free”, so the UN in fact doesn’t approve of independence … unless its masters in Washington want it, such as the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, South Sudan, Eritrea, Kurdistan, Uighur separatists, probably even the Royhinga in Myanmar, etc.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Feb 22 2022 18:01 utc | 101

Russia now evacuating all its embassy staff still left in Ukraine.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 18:19 utc | 102

To: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:17 utc | 8
I think Putin’s speech was a fairly clear invitation to other Russian-majority oblasts to revolt against Kiev with an assurance of RF protection. This implicates, IMO, the entire 1922 area of the map in the article, depending on the inclination of the populations within those regions.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 22 2022 18:23 utc | 103

In response to Dachshund@90,
Not sure about Crimea, but I see no reason to exclude the possibility that Ukraine regains control over Donbas and recognizes Crimea as a Russian subject. The point of contention then becomes whether such a Ukraine is itself recognized as legitimate.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 22 2022 18:27 utc | 104

I found it rather instructive to read Alastair Crooke’s essay that was published yesterday and written before the weekend’s events given what it portrays. It will be very interesting to read his take on what’s happened since he wrote.
Meanwhile, there’s Pepe Escobar’s essay written yesterday and published today which opens thusly:
“History will register that the birth of the baby twins – Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics – only a few hours before 2/22/22, was simultaneous to the birth of the real, 21st century multipolar world.” [My Emphasis]
Here’s his key observation:
“As Nebenzya outlined [at the UNSC], ‘I would like to remind you that at the time of the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the LPR and DPR had already declared independence. The fact that Russia today recognized it does not change the composition of the parties to the Minsk agreements, since Russia is not one (…) Another thing is that the Minsk agreements have long been openly sabotaged by Ukraine under the auspices of our Western colleagues. Now we see that many colleagues want to sign that the Minsk agreements are dead. But this is not the case (…) We are still open to diplomacy, but we do not intend to allow a new bloody massacre in the Donbass.’
“And here’s the clincher, directly addressing imperial support for the killing of ethnic Russians in Donbass: ‘The main task of our decision [on recognizing independence] was to preserve and protect these lives. This is more important than all your threats.’
“There you go: Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a concept invented by the Americans to launch wars, used by Russia for preventing one.” [My Emphasis]
I was premature with my article announcing Russia would employ its own R2P in Donbass on 19 NOV 2021, but I was clearly correct on the grounds that would be employed in its declaration–Genocide in Donbass at the behest of the Outlaw US Empire.
Pepe discusses eventual CSTO membership just as several of us barflies did yesterday. He dovetails his review of Putin’s speech with the performances rendered at the Munich Security Conference and employed very sharp words:
“The intervention of all 12 members at the Security Council session, combined with Putin’s address to the nation was the stuff of gripping geopolitical drama. Putin’s body language and the look in his eyes testified to the immense gravity of the moment – and it all came to the forefront when he embarked in a concise history lesson spanning a century.
“Barely containing his anger at the countless ways Russia has been vilified by the West, and taking no prisoners when referring to communism, what mostly stood out was the clear-cut rendition of the insurmountable antagonism between the Anglo-American islands and the civilizational Heartland – or the clash between maritime powers and land powers. That Eurasia classic was the bulk of his exposition: the recognition of the baby twins took less than three minutes.
“The Munich Security Conference, this past weekend, had made it all so explicit. Munich, as terrifying as it was in terms of a congregation of headless chickens posing as eagles, at least confirmed everything is in the open.
“The enemy is Russia. NATO infinite expansion – to outer space – is against Russia. And then we had a parade of add-on threats: no disarmament in Eastern Europe, cutting off the Russian economy from the EU, end of Nord Stream 2, Ukraine in NATO, world order built on ‘universal liberal values’.
“Munich spelled out No Compromise Whatsoever – which was exactly what Putin, Lavrov, Patrushev and co. expected, the warmongering rhetoric burying any meaningful discussion of migration, inflation, cyber wars, the European energy crisis and, of course, the only thing that matters for the MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex, as defined by Ray McGovern): let’s milk this Eurotrash lot for untold billions in new contracts, let’s isolate Russia, let’s destroy Nord Stream 2 to sell them our ultra expensive LNG, let’s keep them on a leash – forever.” [My Emphasis]
Pepe’s summation:
“So actually it’s not even war against Russia: the $30 trillion-indebted Empire with a woke military attached simply could not afford it….
“What we have here is so lame: just a lowlife offer-you-can’t-refuse racket to be inflicted on the EU.”
Yes, it’s all about how geoeconomics informs geopolitics and the policies chosen that drive both. Escobar writes:
“Considering the ideological stupidity of the current Brussels gang – Stoltenberg, von der Leyen, Borrell –, incapable of understanding even basic economics, the fact remains that the EU without Russian energy is doomed. Martyanov stresses the algorithm: Russia can afford the break up with Europe. Europe cannot. The U.S. just wants to collect. And we’re not even talking about the dire, incoming ramifications of the systemic crisis across NATOstan.” [My Emphasis]
Diesen and Hudson’s analyses are proven correct, while a raft of acadamians ought to lose their tenure, fired and put into the unemployment line with a similar raft of so-called intelligence analysts from government and stink-tanks. As I opined above and Pepe agrees, Russia will re-establish the European security arrangement, and together with China the global with the UN Charter at its heart. As I wrote several years ago, there’s a new sheriff in town that will corral the Outlaws and end their reign of terror.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 18:28 utc | 105

Recognizing the Donbas republics and sending Russian peacekeepers/tripwire force is the most minimal move Putin could have done regarding Ukraine, short of doing nothing. If this is all that happens, it is in character with Putin as a cautious leader. But I am beginning to think that he has changed and this is only the first step in further actions. I don’t know what they will be, who knows maybe the Americans weren’t b*llshitting and Russia will actually invade for real, or maybe some actions elsewhere like in the Middle East or Latin America. I do get the sense that the Russian leadership is fed up with the West, including Europe, and are resigned to parting ways for quite some time. I think they have priced in significant sanctions (which to be clear, won’t come from just this move), and made the decision to cross the Rubicon and do whatever they have been planning to do.

Posted by: Sean | Feb 22 2022 18:29 utc | 106

I find Putin’s comments on the Odessa massacre (“We know who (the perpetrators) you are and will bring you to justice”) and “decommunization” to be perhaps the most surprising statements he made in his speech. It was indeed broad ranging and focused primarily on NATO expansion and only turning to the situation in Donbas and Lughansk toward the end. Perhaps this is, at least in part, a message to the US that if it doesn’t negotiate seriously on Russia’s full package of measures on European security that Russia will take measures, in Ukraine specifically, to restore it’s security buffer and the clock is ticking. Russia is in the process of evacuating it’s diplomatic staff from Kiev, so whether further action in Ukraine is currently planned or not this gives the impression that it is on the table.
My Russian friend is worried and people in Kiev are in a panic and fear what Putin will do – even those who a few days ago felt differently.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 22 2022 18:32 utc | 107

Re.: Briar Stewart
I would say she is more objective than most of her CBC peers, although her reports generally tend to toe the company line.
Here is one of the better CBC reports on Donetsk: https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1995679299683

Posted by: farm ecologist | Feb 22 2022 18:34 utc | 108

Barflies… So, while we see a form of justice in Russian confrontation of the Empire while protecting ethnic Russians, Why fight for the land?
Yes there is the issue of strategic security in this. But Putin is basing his action on R2P.
What about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania?
Why not call those and other ethnic Russians home and finance resettlement? It’s cheaper than war.
Which points to a subtle, but crass side to Russian/Putin actions. Are the giving a Donbass finger to the collective West?
so much for international law…

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 22 2022 18:36 utc | 109

@Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 16:17 utc | 65
Actually, both make perfect sense.
Once Germany is devoid of cheap, affordable energy. Its industry will lose competitiveness against the americans. MAGA accomplished! Plus the yanks get to make lots of money selling expensive lng to the germans. What’s not to like? The German greens is essentially just a ngo nurture by the americans anyway.

Posted by: cindy6 | Feb 22 2022 18:38 utc | 110

The immediate question must be will the people of Europe, Germany especially be willing to face a huge price hike in energy costs just to satisfy American and UK interests. Come April energy costs in the UK will also skyrocket regardless of sanctions on Nordstream II. If I were German I’d be furious that I will soon have to pay a very high cost for my energy when a pipeline exists to give me gas at a reasonable price, but the ruling party has stopped it to serve the interests of foreign powers.
“Europeans will soon have to pay €2,000 ($2,200) per thousand cubic meters of natural gas, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev tweeted on Tuesday. The warning comes after Germany ordered a halt to Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline certification.”
https://www.rt.com/business/550254-europe-gas-price-double/
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz ordered to stop the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well, welcome to the new world, in which Europeans will soon pay €2,000 per thousand cubic meters of gas!” Medvedev wrote in a half-ironic Twitter post.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 18:43 utc | 111

Another observation from me as a German: Until know, rising energy costs didnt have a name, target the public anger could be vented against. But now, the Greens, Scholz and atlanticists own the rising energy costs. They hvae their name attached to it. So when energy cost make it more and more difficult for the common man to keep going, he has those ppl.
And another feature: Scholz ended the SPD Ostpolitik initiated by Brandt, even continued under Schmidt who gave consent to the NATO Double Track decision in 1979 that made Pershing II missiles in Germany possible. Scholz is the gravedigger of a cornerstone of a German foreign policy that had economic ties with USSR/Russia as the center piece to prevent war.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 22 2022 18:44 utc | 112

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 16:27 utc | 70
Beautifully stated, karlof1! Indeed, the speech is exceedingly forceful, and thanks to b for quoting from Saker – it was at his site that I saw the raw video that included the earliest (for me) corroboration of the action taken by Russia in that magnificent Kremlin hall – actions speak louder than words, and the entire signing ceremony was solemnly performed at the end of the long and impressive speech.
This is not just a promise (in writing and signed by everyone!) to the two republics; this is a statement of a process not ending but beginning, just as we saw back in time events beginning to unravel what had been gerry rigged so many years back before our own particular arrivals on the world scene. Putin makes the point in his speech that matters for Ukraine development were not given such a record; the people were not part of the process, as they are part of this. This process has to continue – in writing and signed by everyone involved!
History is important, and I think this would be one of the most important times a president has taken on the task of educating the public concerning that history. I would also include speeches by the Chinese leaders and even by Castro in Cuba. No doubt there are many more such I’m not aware of. But even such speeches are not, as this one has been, accompanied by such action. This is a new day.
So, don’t regard this speech as just one more in a series of ‘harangues’; this was a moment in history; and we have been present to it, so it is our obligation to measure it properly. Read, and watch.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 18:45 utc | 113

To add to karlofi@105,
Unexpectedly, everyone has agreed to retain the Minsk agreement. Even Ukraine, whose president earlier today (I believe) made a public address burying Minsk, is now backtracking and calling for a new session within the associated Normandy format. Meeting between Biden & Putin still scheduled to go ahead, despite warnings that any military move by Russia would torpedo that “privilege” — suddenly, moving troops into the contested territory of Donbas is no longer considered a military move.
Honestly, my initial misgivings about this approach by the Russians are gradually fading away. Had I known it possible to both have your cake and eat it, I would have been a lot less skeptical.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 22 2022 18:47 utc | 114

@Les7 (109)
“so much for international law…”
Minks 2 has been ‘international law’ for 7 years, and not one iota of it has been implemented, as a result of German and French unlawful insouciance vis-à-vis ‘international law’.
Exactly that disinterest has brought us here, now. Be careful how you build and found your argumentations.

Posted by: bjd | Feb 22 2022 18:50 utc | 115

Another interesting aspect of “The Speech” is the way Putin dwells at length on the legal framework that should underpin a stable, viable nation-state and criticizes the (1) Bolsheviks and (2) Stalin for failing to establish a correct model – 1 – and for failing to repair the flawed underpinnings – 2. So what exactly does Putin believe is the correct model for Russia?
I believe that Putin feels his personal clock ticking and is determined to solve the security issue before he leaves the stage. He has determined that the time is right and expects to carry through until the situation has been corrected/stabilized from Russia’s point of view. The comments regarding Syria are likely also relevant as this is a festering loose end that began under his watch and he likely wishes to see it concluded as well.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 22 2022 18:50 utc | 116

@JessDTruth #101
Largely false characterization.
Among the more egregious parts of it:
1) Taiwan was actually on the UN Security Council (as China) until 1969.
2) Taiwan is recognized by 13 UN members and has embassies or representative offices all over the world – including in the US and Europe.
Thus if anything, it has been the People’s Republic of China that has been fighting for recognition as both the de facto and de jure China.
Any caution on China’s part regarding recognition of breakaway regions would apply far more to Tibet and Xinjiang than Taiwan.
The thing is: neither Tibet nor Xinjiang are in any way, de facto independent thus I see it as more of an excuse than a reason.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 22 2022 18:55 utc | 117

#17: “It has taken 8 years for Russia to acknowledge Donetsk and Lugansk are not part of Ukraine, and Donetsk and Lugansk are still not accepted as part of Russia proper.”
Right, and that is after 8 years and almost 20,000 lives. While Putin handled the Crimea annexation of 2014 masterfully, without the loss of any lives, the same cannot be said of his policy towards both the D & L People’s Republics. As Paul Craig Roberts and several others, including myself, argued vociferously at the time, Russia should never have agreed to the ceasefire or the Minsk negotiations when the NAF had already virtually won the war, had the UAF forces encircled and trapped in southern Donboss, and were laying seize to Mariupol as well.
Had the Kremlin merely allowed the NAF to take Mariupol, NATO ships with their deadly cruise missiles could not have accessed the Sea of Azov. Had they also taken Odessa, which was very real possibility, the UAF would also have lost their main port on the Black Sea, and NATO ships could have been kept out of that strategically crucial body of water as well.
It was also a big mistake, I believe, not to immediately recognize the D & L People’s Republics after they both quickly approved popular requests to rejoin the RF, with affirmative vote totals in the very high 90% range, just as they were in Crimea, which, of course, WAS quickly sealed off by Russian troops and allowed to rejoin the RF.
Because the same was not done for the PRs, as it easily COULD have been done, they got instead 8 more years of deadly shelling and sniping from the UAF, and lost a good deal of territory, and thousands of lives into the bargain.
Now, finally, Putin seems to have abandoned such de facto policies of appeasing the West, — not only here, but in Syria and other paces as well, — and issued a strong refusal to make further concessions to NATO and the US imperialism that controls it.
But even now he has only gone part way, by recognizing the PRs as independent states. He needs still, and soon, to allow them both to rejoin the RF as Crimea was allowed to do 8 years ago. It would probably be best to have some kind of vote on the matter first, which the “rejoin” side would no doubt easily win, even if with a perhaps slightly smaller mandate percentage than the original proposition carried.
Once it is clear that the overwhelming majority of the mostly ethnic Russian populations of the DPs still wish to rejoin the RF, Putin should immediately recognize their desire to be free from the murderous Kiev regime once and for all and approve their reincorporation into the RF. In the meantime, as is no doubt already happening, Russian special forces should be sent in to ensure that the UAF has no chance of retaking either republic.
One last thing. Even were the NS2 pipeline actually permanently kept out of operation, the Ukrainians will almost certainly not be allowed to continue to keep the original southern pipeline in operation, supplying their own and some of the EUs gas needs while also bringing Ukraine billions of Euros in transit fees.
But, of course, NS2 utilization will only be DELAYED, — for the duration of the current “cry-baby” phase as German lackey politicians attempt to appease their US masters. NS2 will then be quietly put into operation — I suspect perhaps before the end of this coming summer and certainly no later than fall when the cold weather will once again strike, — since it is simply ludicrous to spend billions building such a pipeline, a pipeline that is crucial to both to keeping German industry competitive as well as to meeting the pressing needs of German consumers. Russian gas through NS2 can also not be readily supplanted by other gas sources, least of all by American fantasies of shipped in, 3x as costly, LNG tanks.

Posted by: Dr. William Fusfield | Feb 22 2022 18:58 utc | 118

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 22 2022 18:23 utc | 103
I agree. It goes with what I was saying above. The process can continue, but it will have to include similar actions to the one that ended the video of Putin’s speech; it will not be something from the top down, but as with this first step, accompanied by the assent of the people themselves. Not only Putin signed here — the representatives of the people did also.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 19:00 utc | 119

Putin is reported to have stated that he would respond to US agression with “technical” measures. The technical measures were not defined but the rowdies in the bar asserted some form of novel weapon such as an autonomous underwater nuclear torpedo exploded to create a tsunami in New York.
I think it more likely the reference to technical measures may refer to something like repricing all RF energy exports in rubles. This appears to achieve two outcomes:
First, it lessens the impact of the RF being excluded from SWIFT. You want RF energy you need to deposit funds in a RF bank and buy rubles.
Second, if successful, it would undermine the role of the USD as the world reserve currency. At the time of going off the gold standard, US entered into an agreement with KSA that KSA would price its exports in dollars only. This resulted in creation of the Euro-Dollar market.
The RF already has an agreement with China that permits trade interactions without the USD. Given the US treatment of MBS he may feel now is an opportune time to reprice in rubles. Perhaps all OPEC reprices in rubles.
This RF technical measure appears to be a viable possibility but I am unable to determine the realistic chance of success. A full tankard for any patron who can deliver a reasoned defence of this proposition.

Posted by: Sushi | Feb 22 2022 19:04 utc | 120

@c1ue | Feb 22 2022 18:55 utc | 117
Those countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan did not recognize Taiwan per se, but the republic of China, which covers not only the island of formosa, but the Chinese mainland as well as many islands and rocks in south and East China seas. In fact, the roc claims even mongolia as part of its territory. So of course, the independence of Taiwan the island is an issue of separatism for China. In fact, for a long time, the nationalist government of Taiwan consider Pro independence local people as political separatists as well.

Posted by: cindy6 | Feb 22 2022 19:08 utc | 121

@120 Sushi – I think your idea about “technical measures” being economic is quite interesting. I found this from spglobal.com. I don’t know much about them, but it seems to talk about what you describe.
SWIFT

Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 22 2022 19:14 utc | 122

Press conference posted at The Saker. Putin unambiguously affirms the borders of Donetsk-Lugansk are the borders when they were created in 2014.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 22 2022 19:20 utc | 123

Posted by: Sushi | Feb 22 2022 19:04 utc | 120
Suchi, I will simply say that ‘technical measures’ may not involve weaponry, but rather the process we have seen unfolding these past years, months, days, wherein a leader requires first to gain the approval of her/his own country for a codified activity, whatever that activity may be, and then meet with the other entity involved to come to common agreement, then put it into writing. What proceeds as action, in important measures, must be first diplomatically aligned with universal protocols, then come to be during a ceremony of signing of documents.
This IS technicality at its highest, most precise formulation. And as karlof1 said above, comments here indicate that we are not used to seeing things happen in this way. Putin is demonstrating how it must be done. It can, being a lengthy process, unfortunately include the sacrifice of lives – as some have pointed out – but in order to be long lasting, it must be the process followed.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 19:22 utc | 124

Sushi “Putin is reported to have stated that he would respond to US agression with “technical” measures.”
The exact term Putin used was “Military technical”. You don’t have to rely on reports. You can watch Putin saying that direct or read official Russian transcripts. He has used that term several times in relation to the security proposals.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 19:23 utc | 125

Pepe Escobar has a series of tweets purportedly relaying information imparted to him by a source inside the US “Deep State.” The tweets are interesting: https://twitter.com/RealPepeEscobar/status/1496201056451244036
1. “If Russia wants to win it has to stop talking and prepare for total war. You know what the response would be: total Western capitulation. The US wants what is happening as they see Putin as a coward.”
2. “The US gave the orders to Zelensky to threaten the development of nuclear missiles. That is what brought this to a head. The US knew that was going to happen and wanted it to happen. They are leading Putin around as in a dog collar.”
3. “The US wanted Putin to do this and Germany now stopped Nord Stream 2. This is a total victory for the US.”
I believe (2) and (3) makes sense. I do believe the US wanted Russia to “invade”–that is how recognizing LDNR is being cast–so that the US could cancel Nordstream2. The point here is to control Germany by means of manipulating Ukraine and Russia.
The US is currently claiming that they expect a continued violent invasion by Putin. DO they *believe* this? I am among those coming around to the view that the repercussions of Putin’s speech–and his reference to Odessa–are further reaching than many initially thought. I wonder if Russia *does* plan to take Odessa, to decapitate Kiev if necessary, and to wrest effective control over half of what had been Ukraine. Does the US *really* expect Russia to act so decisively?
Where does this all end?

Posted by: WJ | Feb 22 2022 19:25 utc | 126

@123 oldhippe
Hmm, so it is the 2014 claimed borders. Thanks for finding that. It leaves some thorny issues to resolve.
here’s the link via your reference:
https://www.pnp.ru/politics/putin-utochnil-granicy-priznaniya-dnr-i-lnr.html

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 19:27 utc | 127

Pardon me for unintentionally misspelling your name, Sushi. And I ought to have said to begin that my definition of ‘technical’ would be in addition to yours, not in opposition. I think your understanding is a good one; in my haste I omitted this.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 19:28 utc | 128

@123 oldhippie
So it is the 2014 claimed borders, after all. Thanks for finding that. Leaves some thorny issues to resolve

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 19:28 utc | 129

Sushi @ 120
” At the time of going off the gold standard, US entered into an agreement with KSA that KSA would price its exports in dollars only. This resulted in creation of the Euro-Dollar market.”
US going off the gold standard -> early seventies, introduction of euro -> early 2000
So perhaps not quite how you imagined it. Now Petro-dollar, that’s something else.

Posted by: Dacshund | Feb 22 2022 19:29 utc | 130

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 19:23 utc | 125
How about “Carry a big stick, but speak softly” ?
I just read a lovely quote in Victor Hugo’s “Les Miserables” that seems to apply:
“Let us not carry flame
where light alone would suffice.”

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 19:34 utc | 131

Attenti a fare affidamento sulla Cina, spero che il governo russo e in primis Putin facciano molto attenzione perché tra due litiganti il terzo gode.
La Cina detiene un terzo del debito americano, detiene un terzo delle azioni delle più grandi società industriali e bancarie americane,un terzo delle società commerciali ed inoltre gli states sono il suo più grande sbocco commerciale,

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Feb 22 2022 19:34 utc | 132

Any thoughts on why Zelenskyy changed his tune? Last month …
Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 16:20 utc | 68
To understand Zelensky, I recommend watching movie Zelig or at least, reading the summary. This guy either adapts to his audience or goes bonkers. There is no there there. For example, he and many of his cronies do business in Russia, but they also sanction and even arrest people for doing the same thing. But there is also a ton of examples of sharply pro-Russian views when he catered to Russian audiences as a comedian. For such reasons genuine fascist hate him with passion, no exile to Lviv for Zelensky/

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 19:35 utc | 133

Olaf looks such a weakass, him & the greens sucking up to daddy

Posted by: sadness | Feb 22 2022 19:42 utc | 134

A couple of questions: How is Burisma doing these days?
Second question: If Nord Stream 2 is such a wicked thing, why are Europeans letting Nord Stream 1 disgorge the evil Russian natgas continue to flow?

Posted by: Bob In Portland | Feb 22 2022 19:45 utc | 135

@126
With whatever respect may be due to wherever this reasoning came from, to me it isn’t consistent with the situation. No matter what US thinks, nuclear proliferation doesn’t sit well at all with the world.
Certainly true that US wanted NS2 dead, but that was already de-facto done earlier this year. Pretty much automatically because of the new German government. NS2’s indefinite delay was signalled repeatedly.
On the issue of hegemony by abuse of the financial system in a larger sense: IMO the correct way to stop the world being constantly threatened by the aggressive imperialist / neocolonialist tool of economic warfare, is for the tool to become ineffective. That means alternative financial systems, and hastening the retirement of the remaining technical monopolies held by the imperialist / neocolonialist camp. Simple and straightforward solution that is certain to happen, probably by the end of the decade. Until that time, good-faith negotiations can’t be expected, unfortunately, and use of economic warfare tools is certain whenever a third party demonstrates their independence. With the thinnest pretexts to be fabricated. Demonstrated for example by the tale of JCPOA, or Huawei which is another very revealing example example.
And so, from the point of view of the currently anti-hegemonic powers, the remaining effect of stopping NS2 is that there would maybe be some chance of prevent US entrenchment of control of EU, by means of starving EU of relatively inexpensive energy. The answer seems to be no, because EU is not concerned with being stuck in that position. Making that aspect unfortunately not very relevant, and leaving security considerations as the element that’s left after the economic possibilities are recognized as, in practice, already being off the table.

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 19:48 utc | 136

Diesen and Hudson’s analyses are proven correct, while a raft of acadamians ought to lose their tenure, fired… Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 18:28 utc | 105
I guess you mean macadamians, i.e. overpriced nuts>/b>.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 19:49 utc | 137

Posted by: vinnieoh | Feb 22 2022 17:31 utc | 88:
I agree with you that China’s reaction at UNSC thus far is rather meek; meeker than I’d like to see. I also agree with you that the central issue of the Donbass faceoff is a humanitarian one and Russia’s action is the only one to prevent an ugly occurrence. The Empire seems bent on using a humanitarian scenario to force Russia into a war. China should have pointed this out in their statement, blaming either the Empire or the Ukie Nazi it doesn’t matter, but use the issue as the reason for strongly supporting the Russian position nevertheless.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 22 2022 19:49 utc | 138

juliania @113–
Thanks for your reply and those made on the previous thread! I stand firmly on my commentary @70 and the additions made in my parsing of Pepe Escobar’s article.
Some have asked why Russia doesn’t do something of a similar nature in response to the Baltic’s behavior to which I reply–Russian’s there haven’t been subjected to pogroms and war and would be welcomed to emigrate to Russia if they chose, but many have chosen to remain despite being relegated to a status similar to illegal immigrants. Their NATO status is unacceptable, but solving that issue is far more complex than the R2P performed in Donbass. There’s also the affinity issue related to Ukraine that doesn’t exist with the Baltics as well as a very different historical background–essentially, the Baltics aren’t Russian in any sense and never will be, so why bother?
Another issue ignored by many is the fact the Russia’s demographic and development issues mean that it requires as much peace as possible, as with the comment @118 that states Russia should have risked war back in 2014 when it clearly lacked the military superiority it now enjoys and made yesterday’s actions possible. Some also forget that Russia’s a democracy, that Putin as President is NOT a dictator.
I do find it difficult to see how UNSCR 2022 can now be implemented. The first steps would obviously need to be taken by Ukraine as it directs, but I don’t see the Nazi hotheads in the employ of the Outlaw US Empire doing what’s required legislatively–and a huge number of laws and the constitution would need to be repealed and rewritten: Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.
For Ukraine to conform to its own real needs and those demanded by Russia’s security concerns, a new Ukraine 3.0 will need to be constructed, Russia/Putin having offered to help show it the way. How that unfolds remains to be seen, but it must.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 19:59 utc | 139

Time to Triple-Shift Pipelines meant for Asia and the Arctic – Asian Markets are paying handsomely for LNG. Russia entering the LNG Market and launching more CNG Pipelines into Asia will be Appreciated by All Asians.
Europe can buy up all the FreedomFrack and GCC LNG while hosting more MENA Migranvaders Murica and ISR are going to “produce” there from the Hegemony’s Regional and “Greater ISR” (Population Growth) Wars.

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 22 2022 20:00 utc | 140

juliania
“Let us not carry flame
where light alone would suffice.”
I think that would describe Putin and also Carry a big stick, but speak softly.
I have also been trying to find the video or the exact wording Putin used in taking the fight to the terrorists back when, I think, he was PM on the terrorist events then taking place in Russia.
I t was something along the lines of “we will kill them on the john, we will kill them where we find them”. There is also the Putin that ordered the hijacked passenger jet to be shot down if it looked to be heading towards the Sochi Olympics venue. Military technical, the Putin used it was some some sort of military response rather than military and/or technical response.
That is very much a last resort but as Putin said, they have nowhere to retreat to. Russia is in its own country whereas the US are a long way from theirs and have lots of room to retreat.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 20:01 utc | 141

Many barflies here sounded distraught over Scholz’s decision to freeze the Nordstream II certification process. I don’t know why this is such a big deal. It’s not like he has decided to destroy the pipes all the way to the middle of the Black Sea. The freeze on certification process can be revoke any time, perhaps as soon as next month on excuse that the Minks Agreement will be honored by all parties, or some other excuses. Mothballing its use for a year or two is just a fleeting era. I for one believe that had Merkle be still the one in office she would have done the same thing. It just reflects the fact that, as a nation Germany is still on the fence on which way to lean between the Atlanticist choice or the Eurasian one, and for now Germany wants to manifest its Atlanticist loyalty.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 22 2022 20:02 utc | 142

@cindy6 #121
You are still misunderstanding the situation.
The ROC (Republic of China) is *already* independent because it existed *before* the PRC (People’s Republic of China). The ROC *was* the government of China before 1949.
The problem is that the government of Taiwan (ROC) has attempted to proclaim that they are still the legitimate government of China.
Until 1970, however, the ROC was on the UN Security Council, for example and so had international recognition of some type.
So Taiwan is completely a different situation: the ROC was already an independent government preceding the PRC.
The actual difference is the “One China” policy.
The US in the past agreed with the ROC’s version of One China (i.e. the ROC is the legitimate government of China but the entire rest of China outside Taiwan is in rebellion) whereas the PRC’s version of One China has the relative positions, reversed.
Taiwan didn’t break away from the rest of China – the rest of China broke away from Taiwan.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 22 2022 20:04 utc | 143

Here is a better map:
https://reseauinternational.net/l-ukraine-vue-autrement-3/

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 22 2022 20:06 utc | 144

@Oriental Voice | Feb 22 2022 20:02 utc | 141

Many barflies here sounded distraught over Scholz’s decision to freeze the Nordstream II certification process. I don’t know why this is such a big deal. It’s not like he has decided to destroy the pipes all the way to the middle of the Black Sea.

Did you share geography class with Liz Truss? 😎

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 20:08 utc | 145

Brief presser by Putin, the two main points that caught my attention:
”The most important point is a verifiable degree of demilitarization of today’s Ukraine”
“The Minsk agreements were killed long before yesterday’s recognition of the people’s republics of Donbass – and not by us, not by representatives of these republics, but by the current Kiev authorities.”
There’s more to it, the text in Russian for the time being.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67838

Posted by: Paco | Feb 22 2022 20:08 utc | 146

@Piotr Berman #132
The idea that Zelenskyy is simply a “human chameleon” seems to be contradicted by the recent immense increase in artillery explosions along the LOC. Either Zelenskyy ordered the escalation or he did not. If he did order it, then why go to such lengths to downplay the threat of a Russian invasion beforehand? If he did not order it, then either it is indeed a false-flag operation, or there are at least parts of the Ukrainian forces that are not under Zelenskyy’s control.

Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 20:09 utc | 147

In case anyone wants to get depressed, here is a link to Bidet’s comments today on Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
He comes in at 1 hour 37 minutes in and blathers on for about 10 minutes.
Bidet today
What a stark difference comparing him to President Putin’s speech yesterday.

Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 22 2022 20:09 utc | 148

Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 22 2022 20:09 utc | 147
What a stale Hollywood script, “the price of freedom” the freedom to screw the world, the freedom of Coke or Pepsi, ¡Long live freedom fries!

Posted by: Paco | Feb 22 2022 20:19 utc | 149

karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 19:59 utc | 138
“Another issue ignored by many is the fact the Russia’s demographic and development issues mean that it requires as much peace as possible, as with the comment @118 that states Russia should have risked war back in 2014 when it clearly lacked the military superiority it now enjoys and made yesterday’s actions possible. Some also forget that Russia’s a democracy, that Putin as President is NOT a dictator.”
I came back to this thread to make a similar reply. Remember that in ’03 that Russia, China, nobody could reply to DC’s basically saying to the world “If you don’t like what we’re doing, then stop us!” Gave the world the finger, and that was the zenith of US’ unipolar moment. This is not ’03. In ’14 Russia finally decided it could no longer sit on the sidelines and responded to Syria’s request for assistance, pissing off DC and pissing on DC’s hopes of another failed state ME domino. But even then Russia had to make a judicious choice of that which it could hope to save. The choice was easy; they could not give up Sevastopol and merely a military enclave around that naval port would not suffice and so Crimea got the full embrace and the Donbas not so much.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Feb 22 2022 20:22 utc | 150

Does anybody see these EU and US sanctions announced as mostly a nothing burger? Sanction Duma members, limit Russian debt sales, sanction Donbas officials. Big deal. Putin might have went ahead after they announced no expulsion from SWIFT and don’t hurt EU banks doing business in Russia.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 22 2022 20:23 utc | 151

@Posted by: c1ue | Feb 22 2022 18:55 utc | 117
After the 1949 defeat by the communists the KMT fled to Taiwan, a Chinese province and proclaimed that there was only ONE China – Taiwan and the mainland (including Tibet and Xinjiang). This was a civil war, the rest of China did not “break away” from Taiwan. The ROC state had been overthrown and the KMT dregs retreated to the island. If the US had not intervened in a civil war, Taiwan would have been captured by the communists in the 1950s.
The whole thing is a creation of the US getting involved in other peoples affairs, just like the division of Korea, North and South Vietnam etc. There are 195 countries in the world, only 15 recognize Taiwan as a country and the one with the biggest population is Guatemala (18 million!) and most are tiny vassals of the US/UK or Australia. The KMT terror in Taiwan to subjugate the inhabitants was just as bad as the pre-Korean war terror in the South against the left-wing forces that had fought the Japanese (the rulers of South Korea installed by the US were all Japanese collaborators and many served in the Japanese army against China).

Posted by: Roger | Feb 22 2022 20:24 utc | 152

@ lex 147
I watched it elsewhere, but Ty for the link
FJB can’t speak for 5 minutes without enunciating something that is indecipherable.
A fun game is to watch a FJB speech (live) with the subtitles on, and catch something
that even the technicians couldn’t translate.

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Feb 22 2022 20:26 utc | 153

@148 Paco – I think Bidet and Foggy Bottom dwellers have been watching too much Team America.
Team America World Police Theme Song
Not appropriate for work or kids.

Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 22 2022 20:27 utc | 154

Continuous text of Biden’s ten minutes is the lesser breeds without the law need to behave. Or we will put them in their place. Russia needs to get own troops out of Belarus. We are annoyed. Get off my lawn.
Telling Russians we consider them as dirt beneath our feet is not diplomacy. Not a tactic for anything except picking a fight.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 22 2022 20:28 utc | 155

WJ @126–
Escobar’s source is usually pushing misinformation or spin. The only valid observation is #3, and then there’s no indication of whom the victory was over–Germany, EU, or Russia? The idea that lack of NS2 gas = MAGA is nuts as the Outlaw US Empire has no industrial capacity to compete with anybody except in certain high-tech niches. Rebuilding that capacity would require a wholesale change in political-economy, the ousting of the Neoliberals, and nationalization of Wall Street’s banks, the brokerage firms remaining private. The central point being–If the Outlaw US Empire wants to remain relevant it will need to completely transform itself into a normal law-abiding nation; otherwise, it will remain a pariah until it’s forced to change, hopefully by internal forces.
The big unseen aspect of Russia-Outlaw relations is the latter’s economic dependency on the former which isn’t confined to hydrocarbons as a few barflies noted. That underlying truth is responsible for much of the hysteria we’ve seen–The Outlaw US Empire needs Russia while Russia doesn’t need the Outlaw US Empire at all. And that fact is the same for almost every nation on the planet.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 20:30 utc | 156

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:17 utc | 8
On the question of whether Russia will “liberate” to the oblast boundaries, please bear in mind that Russia has recognized LPR and DPR as independent states, which means it is for them to define their final borders. That is why the Minsk agreements are still in play – it could happen that LPR and DNR might negotiate a return to Ukraine as autonomous regions (seems unlikely now, but…). We see a similar approach taken in Syria, where its up to the Syrians to do the hard work. This is about respect for a sovereign state to chart its own course.
As stated by b, saker and others, this is part of a bigger process which is about bringing intl relations back to the UN centered International law. Russia knows that every act is watched by other nations who will judge in the long term what kind of arrangement they want to live under.
Posted by: Nick | Feb 22 2022 14:55 utc | 19
There’s a pretty good/entertaining video of Russia’s history here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Wmc8C0Eq0

Posted by: mikeO | Feb 22 2022 20:32 utc | 157

Remaining US colonies:
– Puerto Rico
– Guam
– American Samoa
– Wake Island
– US Virgin Islands
– Northern Marianas
Also stolen from its population and not legally integrated under international law
– Hawaii
Then The Chagos Islands, stolen from its population by the Brits and then given to the US to build its massive Diego Garcia military base – against numerous UN censure motions calling for the return of the islands to their rightful owners (who were exiled to poverty).
Then of course there is “French” Guiana and the rest of the French colonies, the Malvinas and the rest of the UK colonies.
Nice article about the “hidden” US Empire (The Guardian produces something good now and again):
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/feb/15/the-us-hidden-empire-overseas-territories-united-states-guam-puerto-rico-american-samoa

Posted by: Roger | Feb 22 2022 20:33 utc | 158

@ Sean | Feb 22 2022 18:29 utc | 106… i see this much like you do… thanks for articulating all that…
@ farm ecologist | Feb 22 2022 18:34 utc | 108… thanks for that.. i agree with you, although i see no such reporting on the cbc news channel in the written articles.. it is all negative on russia and nothing like this comes out in the written articles from cbc.. i tend to get all my news via the written as opposed to a televised format..
@ Paco | Feb 22 2022 20:08 utc | 145… thanks.. i read putins speech from yesterday that karlof1 linked to via his vk page… i found the speech shocking.. and i learned a few things too…i do like how he framed some of it in that speech, so i am going to quote him here again…
“The Maidan did not bring Ukraine closer to democracy and progress. Having carried out a coup d’état, the nationalists and those political forces that supported them finally brought the situation to a dead end, pushed Ukraine into the abyss of civil war. Eight years after those events, the country is divided. Ukraine is experiencing an acute socio-economic crisis.”
“There is simply no independent court in Ukraine. At the request of the West, the Kiev authorities gave representatives of international organizations the preferential right to select members of the highest judicial bodies – the Council of Justice and the Qualification Commission of Judges.
In addition, the U.S. Embassy directly controls the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office, and the High Anti-Corruption Court. All this is done under a plausible pretext to increase the effectiveness of the fight against corruption. Well, okay, but where are the results? Corruption has blossomed and is still flourishing.
Are Ukrainians themselves aware of all these management methods? Do they understand that their country is not even under a political and economic protectorate, but reduced to the level of a colony with a puppet regime? ”
that seems shocking to me, but i imagine it is all true too…

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 20:33 utc | 159

Putin says the Minsk agreement is extant according to Tass.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698276

Posted by: dh | Feb 22 2022 20:33 utc | 160

@Norweigian, #144:
Arghhhh! Baltic Sea I meant. No Liz Truss wasn’t in my geography class. She is too young for that :-). Thank goodness. But as an oriental I am sometimes ignorant about Eurasian whereabouts :-).

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 22 2022 20:33 utc | 161

karlof1
I suspect Russia sees the nazi’s and rabid fascists of Ukraine in the same light it sees Islamic extremism. That piece from Saker about current Russian moves being part of a much larger security plan. The overall goal will be to put the US back in its box, either through a security agreement or by other means if required. Once US is back in it’s box, NATO is no longer a threat. The circumstances under which Russia can eliminate the nazi’s and fascists of Ukraine? Putin is a strong believer in creating circumstances and is very good at it. He also believes a problem only needs to be made manageable as often totally eliminating one problem creates many more. US/UK will also make there moves, some of which Putin will capitalize on. The one thing I am, worried about is the ‘Russian’ attack on Kiev which I think the US will go ahead with.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 20:35 utc | 162

Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 22 2022 14:36 utc | 14
? 1933 was only 89 years ago.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 22 2022 20:36 utc | 163

”or there are at least parts of the Ukrainian forces that are not under Zelenskyy’s control.”
Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 20:09 utc | 146
They are largely militias, controlled by oligarchs or political groups. That makes them unpredictable, which is sort of dangerous in a situation like this, but it also makes them inefficient — lots of grenades but only one attempt to break into new territory that seems to have been repelled fairly effortlessly.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 22 2022 20:36 utc | 164

don’t know if any barflies have played a Russian-developed computer game called Atom RPG? if you load it up now, there is a checkbox for Operation “February” which seems to add a military presence. Russian humour?

Posted by: Rae | Feb 22 2022 20:40 utc | 165

Who’s creating reality now Karl Rove.

Posted by: so | Feb 22 2022 20:42 utc | 166

“Academic history has suffered as well. Use older texts.”
Posted by: older | Feb 22 2022 17:08 utc | 82
I fully agree with your comment, but as one who regularly consults Vintage Red texts I had to smile at this.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 22 2022 20:46 utc | 167

Thanks, Paco | Feb 22 2022 20:08 utc | 145:
Here’s Putin’s final response:
“As for the question – is it possible and should all issues be resolved with the help of force or remain on the side of good? Well, why do you think that good should always be powerless? I don’t think so, I think that just good implies the ability to defend oneself. From this we will proceed.
Thanks. Good luck.”

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 20:49 utc | 168

I think people aren’t considering the ramifications of Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhask – in particular, the full administrative regions.
Up until now, the artillery fire landing around the contact zones were mostly going one way: into the republics.
However, the actual administrative regions of Donetsk and Luhask include most, if not all, of the area where Ukrainian military formations presently reside along the conflict contact zone.
Under the definition of the “full” administrative regions of the 2 republics, Russian artillery fire on Ukrainian military units would be defensive – since these Ukrainian units are in Donetsk/Luhansk territory. This includes the city of Mariupol – the 10th largest in Ukraine – for example.
Not saying it is going to happen, but I am saying that a legal basis for military response to indeterminate shelling of the republics is now on the table.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 22 2022 20:51 utc | 169

@Jörgen Hassler #163
If that is indeed the case (it’s entirely possible, at the very least), then that raises the likelihood that Zelenskyy was bypassed with this latest escalation. However, if his authority over the military is that weak, it seems that the most rational course of action for him would be to flee the country as quickly as possible. Maybe his insistence on leaving Ukraine to travel to the Munich security conference should be understood as a way for him to buy more time. Also, maybe an honest love of country and sense of duty are causing him to hesitate about fleeing. Regardless, such limited military authority would mean that the writing is on the wall for him – if the knives aren’t out.

Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 20:51 utc | 170

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 20:33 utc | 158
I’m not talking about yesterday’s long and detailed history speech of recognition, the link I gave is today’s presser, there is some interesting stuff in it. Contrary to Nebenzia Putin talks about Minsk as dead and buried, plus some other interesting stuff, like Zelensky’s nuclear challenge, specifically directed at Russia and something that it will be taken into consideration very seriously.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 22 2022 20:52 utc | 171

US sanctions on Russia: about 5 pages on Wikipedia
U.S. sanctions on Iran: about 10 pages on same
If Russia wants to get REALLY sanctioned, it needs to threaten Israel
That’s sarcasm of course,
I’m curious what German common volk think about what’s going on?
Their energy costs, and everything really, is going to continue to rise.
Any Barflies out there from Germany who want to comment on what the trajectory is for Germany?
(I’m assuming b will make a post at some point, but he’s not much of a domestic complainer)

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Feb 22 2022 20:55 utc | 172

Wondering when Chancellor Scholz will be awarded the Cross of Irony for heroism in Germansplaining genocide to Russia…

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 22 2022 20:56 utc | 173

@170 My apologies Paco for my post #159. I see you already posted the news about Putin saying Minsk is dead. Perhaps Zelensky can revive it.

Posted by: dh | Feb 22 2022 21:01 utc | 174

@ Paco | Feb 22 2022 20:52 utc | 170… i was aware of that paco…thanks.. i was replying to what you’d said in english in your message.. i also wanted to quote from that speech from putin that karlof1 had shared as well… as for the link you shared – i will quote you, so that you can appreciate why i can’t partake in it –
“There’s more to it, the text in Russian for the time being.”

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 21:03 utc | 175

Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 20:51 utc | 169
To me it seems that Zelensky has been winging it for some time, his statements have been contradictory to say the least. That’s a good sign he has no control. That he is out of the loop as far as the USnato is concerned we know from his asking for proof that his own country was about to be invaded. I think his days are numbered, at least as president.
My guess is that there will be coup lead by the right sector, soft or hard. But that’s rather based on following the logic and momentum of the situation than on concrete knowledge, so I may well be wrong.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 22 2022 21:11 utc | 176

Based on putins press conference today, the LNR and DPR borders are not, repeat, not decided.
They are subject to negotiation with the Kiev regime

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 22 2022 21:12 utc | 177

Some passing speculation on what happens next:
If Ukraine genuinely fears a Russian invasion – that is, movement of Russian and allied military units beyond the LOC – then it’ll want to join NATO as quickly as possible. Its thinking will be that NATO membership will forestall any further Russian military action, because it’s one thing for Russia to attack only Ukraine, but another for Russia to attack all of NATO. Zelenskyy has pressed for a clear timetable for joining NATO, but it’s unclear if that implies joining ASAP.
On the other hand, if NATO genuinely fears a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and if they do not want to go to war with Russia, then they will seek to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Not only would NATO membership for Ukraine be an unacceptable escalation in Russia’s eyes, but it would also greatly raise the risk of a wider war.
So if NATO – meaning the US, first and foremost – either wants to go to war with Russia, or is indifferent about it, then they will engage in further brinkmanship by fast-tracking Ukraine becoming a member. The question then would be how Russia responds.

Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 21:15 utc | 178

@35
Lofl. They claimed a full invasion of Ukraine complete with maps and arrows. No, they didn’t see this coming, you imperialist zombie.

Posted by: Sikuvit | Feb 22 2022 21:15 utc | 179

It isn’t over until it is over.
The setup of the two new republics as separate countries allows the Russian to operate in foreign places. The statement that Putin was referring to the total extent of the Oblasts and not just the parts that are defended, includes Mariupol and it’s port. (There is some evidence that K- held areas in Luhansk are being shelled)
There was a brief moment where the US withdrew from Ukraine and it was uncertain whether things would stop there. No way. The Nato, UK and US spy planes have simply transferred to North-South along the Belarus border, up and down the Baltics and along the Sulawiki gap. New naval “Exercises” are planned by the UK and US under some excuse or another.
In other words they haven’t realised yet the extent of what the situation represents and how it has been prepared in avance. ie Russian troop build-up started in March last year, with a definite timeline plan.
There has been no US acknowledgement of Russian security demands. Either, this is because they don’t believe or want them, OR they are now in a position where they cannot retract. It may be the latter. The US lost credibility with Afghanistan, and the war-spoilation-money machine needs feeding. Blinkers is living up to his name.
****
Odd notes.
The Russian company that sells gas through Ukraine is “accepting no new contracts”. The biggest user of Oil and petrol on the planet is the Pentagon. Scholz, having “stopped” NSII has made it less likely that it would be physically sabotaged by the US. Most Russsian gas pipelines into the EU are running at 50% capacity (if that) due to restrictions put in place by the EU. They could easily come back on line officially if it wasn’t for, you know, “rules”. (They are trying to strangle themselves rather than shoot themselves in the foot to make the “pleasure” last longer.).
*
Syria is one of the first countries to recognise the new twins. The US is worried if the Kinzhal missiles in Latakia have nuclear warheads or just things that go “bang”. Israel is likely to try to stir things up again. (now)
****
Overall, Instead of thinking that Putin is “afraid”, the US deep state should remember that he is calculating and DOES WHAT HE SAYS HE WILL. The changing of, or elimination of US First-strike capabilities in Europe is one thing that he must do. Either by military means or technical (provoke a civil or monetary crisis)
*
PS. Odessa, or at least those responsible for the massacres, should stock up on frilly bullet proof underpants from the local equivalent of Walmart.
*
China expects more to come. Why effusively wecome “the twins” when that is provisional and is not going to be the final result? The US is going to stumble – as it has been trying to get China “on it’s side” while trying to cut down it’s influence at the same time. Cake and eat it.
****
Deutsche Bank which was one of the biggest in the world has been under financial “attack” for some time. In a similar way that UBS interests were progressively taken over by the 5 major US Banks a few years ago. Bear Sterns was also eliminated at the same time as Lehman (accidentally?) as competition, by the Fed and the same US Banks.
They all work “together” but the actual financial health of all of them is questionable.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 22 2022 21:17 utc | 180

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 21:03 utc | 174
Here the link in English, not complete yet but it should be ready soon, here is kind of late but there in the Island should be something like lunch time, so have a dessert 😉
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67838

Posted by: Paco | Feb 22 2022 21:22 utc | 181

Just a speculation regarding Russian response to sanctions. I can see Russia stopping delivering gas to Europe altogether except for the Balkan route that delivers gas to Serbia and Hungary. Once the energy markets explode one can expect some heads to roll, including that of Schulz. Quite possibly Macron will loose election, and some other neoliberals will fly from European institutions and governments. All of this can happen this spring. At the same time there might be some military pressure on US in the Middle East and perhaps in the Central America. Things will roll simultaneously. Watch this space.

Posted by: Milos | Feb 22 2022 21:24 utc | 182

Will Norway, Finland, and the rest of Ukraine joining NATO please Russia?

Posted by: Serge | Feb 22 2022 21:24 utc | 183

Paco @145–
Thanks for the head’s up and link.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 21:29 utc | 184

Will Norway, Finland, and the rest of Ukraine joining NATO please Russia?
Posted by: Serge | Feb 22 2022 21:24 utc | 182
You prolly mean Sweden rather than Norway. We’ve been in from the start.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 22 2022 21:31 utc | 185

@ Stonebird | Feb 22 2022 21:17 utc | 179 with the bigger picture musings…thanks
I have been having some of the same thoughts.
Your bit about the contractor selling gas transited through Ukraine fuels my scenario that has all future energy from Russia contracted in Rubles……any barflies know the contract mix of US dollars/Rubles in Russian energy exports?
Yes, it is noticed that Syria was first to back the Russian opening to the Ukraine regions. I still think that Syria will join Ukraine on everyones lips/keyboards as they work to oust the foreign illegal occupiers.
People need to accept that we are in a world wide civilization war that all care about the results of and are engaged in to one degree or another….spaceship earth. Putin was clear in indicating that he is pushing for global security, not just a Ukraine solution.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 22 2022 21:31 utc | 186

Why does Putin call the attacks on D/LNR “genocide?”

Posted by: Atown | Feb 22 2022 21:32 utc | 187

chu teh #10

b: I wonder why Scholz took this sensational step. …
Clearly it’s to celebrate the 100th Anniversary of The Reichstag Fire.

Applause !!! that was perfect chu teh.
I was about to suggest it was because Scholz is the same as Boris without the flamboyance.
May I repeat: You cannot tell me that an investment project of this scale, this strategic importance, ready to commence flow right at the time of peak need, did NOT have its approvals all lined up and completed. Are all the interconnects installed? likely YES. Are the distribution lines installed ? likely YES.
Has Germany never even heard of a Gantt chart? This is BS, it is strangulation by red tape that the neoliberal economists supposedly destroyed decades ago.
But the paperwork must come last not simultaneous. Are the americans running Germany’s administration? as a blunder of this scale is to be expected in the USA or a mafia state.
Germany was never going to approve NS2, they were just loading debt burden on to Gazprom who went to extraordinary effort to lay that pipeline in the face of repeated USA sabotage.
Scholz is full of sh!te and this entire nonsense tells the world – DONT DO BUSINESS IN GERMANY as their industrial and political bosses are incompetent fools and they take others for fools.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 22 2022 21:32 utc | 188

So far cost of Obama’s coup/ NATO expansion on Ukraine, is Ukrainian loosing many life’s and three provinces in 8 years, one can say is not cheap to become a NATO, or one can say one needs to be a NATO/ US satrapy at any price.

Posted by: Kooshy | Feb 22 2022 21:35 utc | 189

o/t – Iran negotiations
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/470411/FM-Iran-is-optimistic-about-a-deal-in-Vienna
Iran taking a sunny and optimistic spin, very well done presentation and positive headlines!
Despite the headline:
I would like to explain to you as to where we stand now in Vienna. On the one hand, we are receiving messages from Mr. Biden through different intermediaries. Mr. Biden is trying to tell the Iranian side that he has good will. On the other hand, Mr. Rob Malley does not show any flexibility of the negotiating table.
Wild guess (wildly uncreative) at the eventual outcome: the usual good-cop-bad-cop routine with Congress, where the US negotiator agrees, Congress refuses to ratify. Then, despite carefully constructed sequencing procedure that prepares for this possibility, Iran is blamed anyway and the teevee networks completely ignore the actual text and misrepresent what happened. For now though, ironing out that text…

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 21:41 utc | 190

@Les7 | Feb 22 2022 21:12 utc | 176

Based on putins press conference today, the LNR and DPR borders are not, repeat, not decided.
They are subject to negotiation with the Kiev regime

I don’t think so. My understanding is that Lugansk & Donetsk Peoples Republics declared independence in May 2014, i.e. within the borders of the oblasts in Ukraine at that time, and that it is this independence that Russia now has recognized.
Original page in Russian
Yandex machine translation to English:
Putin clarified the borders of recognition of the DPR and LPR
President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference on Tuesday that the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics were recognized within the borders set out in their constitutions.
“We have recognized them, which means we have recognized all their fundamental documents, including the Constitution. And the constitution prescribes borders within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the time when they were part of Ukraine, ” the head of state said.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 21:47 utc | 191

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 22 2022 21:12 utc | 176
Here is the relevant paragraph from Putin’s presser in English (computer translation)
“…Now, as for the borders, within what borders will we recognize these republics. We recognized them, which means we recognized all their fundamental documents, including the Constitution, and the Constitution spelled out the borders within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the time when they were part of Ukraine. But we expect, and I want to emphasize this, that all controversial issues will be resolved in the course of negotiations between the current Kiev authorities and the leadership of these republics. Unfortunately, at this point in time, we understand that this is impossible, since hostilities there are still ongoing, and moreover, they tend to escalate. But I hope that this will be the case in the future…”
So, pretty clear that, and only ‘controversial issues’ to be negotiated.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 22 2022 21:48 utc | 192

Info saturation, exhausted after a couple of days that feel like a couple of years, but I can’t let this one go, he is from Catalonia, which I’m not, but anyway Spanish, so please gentle patrons allow me to beg for your understanding and excuses since I share nationality with this imbecile bureaucrat that projects what all the Brussels scum favorite sport is. The tweet has been erased, but we all know how hard it is to hide stupidity in the digital world. We are witnessing the pains of a new world order being born and take a look at their concerns, a bit more refined that freedom fries, that’s for sure.
https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/1986

Posted by: Paco | Feb 22 2022 21:49 utc | 193

@ Paco | Feb 22 2022 21:22 utc | 180… thanks paco! it is almost 2 pm and i have gotten next to nothing done today!

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 21:50 utc | 194

@ paco 191 – whoever wrote that response in russian which i just translated – it is a great response… thanks for sharing..

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 21:52 utc | 195

@Serge | Feb 22 2022 21:24 utc | 182

Will Norway, Finland, and the rest of Ukraine joining NATO please Russia?

Fun fact: Norway has been member of NATO since 1949. I suspect we will remain member until NATO dissolves, hopefully not too long into the future.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 21:53 utc | 196

Germany is one of the most important countries on the planet right now, with Germans being a determinent.
. . .Mike Whitney, Unz:

In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for US military bases, no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There’s also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currencies which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a dramatic shift in economic power. This is why the Biden administration opposes Nord Stream. It’s not just a pipeline, it’s a window into the future; a future in which Europe and Asia are drawn closer together into a massive free trade zone that increases their mutual power and prosperity while leaving the US on the outside looking in. ..here

. . .and in Germany there are Germans in distress
How Europeans Are Responding to Exorbitant Gas and Power Bills
High energy prices in Europe are upending people’s lives. While some are installing solar panels, others are stoking their wood-burning stoves. NYTimes . . .

. . .Germany has so far not seen protests over exorbitant energy bills like those that filled streets in Spain last year, or an explosive outcry over inequality on the level of the so-called Yellow Vest movement that rocked France in 2018. But Ms. Siegert, whose agency counseled more than 300 customers in January — three times its monthly average — said she wouldn’t be surprised if the anger currently directed at the prospect of a vaccine mandate shifted its sights to energy prices. “When you talk with people, you feel their anger,” she said. “It is very depressing.” . ..here

Chancellor Scholz has halted NS2 certification. As a politician, he knew that that would be unpopular. But how unpopular? Will Germans take to the streets and demand a reversal? The weather is cool in northern Germany. I just checked the next ten days in Hamburg (random selection) and the top temps hang in there at 8 degrees Celsius, 46 Fahrenheit. Cool.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 22 2022 22:01 utc | 197

“If Western sanctions lead to Russia’s oil exports being completely cut off, the world can expect the international energy market to collapse, a senior figure at the American rating agency Fitch said on Tuesday….
“Russia’s share in the world oil market is more than 10%. There is nothing to replace it. There is little free capacity, especially considering the gradual recovery in demand.” Here.
“Dow Plummets Nearly 500 Points After US Announces ‘First Tranche’ of Sanctions Against Russia”.
Azeri Light is the first national grade to break $100/bbl. Brent’s at $96.31. Domestic US blends are generally running $10-15 lower, although WTI’s at $92.27, Here.
EU and Biden announce new Own-Goal Sanctions, thus the Wall Street reaction, although the Dow could drop 20,000 points and not hurt the economy because it’s not a part of it. But Neoliberal Parasites will be upset or just begin shorting like mad.
Other international fallout: “France Removes Australia From List of Strategic Partners Over AUKUS Betrayal” and “‘It Does Not Make Sense to Go Forward’: Blinken Calls Off Thursday Meeting With Lavrov”

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 22:01 utc | 198

karlof1 #105
Thank you, excellent to read your summary of the day.
The outlaw USA empire did the same rip off to Australia a few months back – got them yapping loudly at China and then, within one week, clinched a 30 year gas supply deal with China after the Oz team disgraced themselves.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 22 2022 22:05 utc | 199

Why does Putin call the attacks on D/LNR “genocide?”
Posted by: Atown | Feb 22 2022 21:32 utc | 186
Because of the large numbers of mass graves containing civilians found there.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 22:08 utc | 200

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