"For security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland. Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services..." The evacuation of the embassy, and the second semi-evacuation is bizarre. I have no idea what DoS people are thinking.

BTW, the map is surely wrong, it should be compared with the map of 1921-39, Poland had current oblast's of Lviv and Ivano-Frankovsk, gray, but also Ternopil, Rivne, and Luck (? I would need to dig out Ukrainian name), green. The yellow area is hard to explain as well, it should include green on the left bank of Dnieper.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 13:45 utc | 1

Yes I agree that pausing Nordstream II is political suicide for Scholz, I recall reading that a majority of Germans where quite happy to receive Russian gas, now I think Germans/Europeans as a whole will pay a higher price than if Russia was supplying the gas.

I'm rather surprised that Scholz folded so easily on the matter, it looks like he's put US interests ahead of that of the German people, whilst Putin has put the security of Russia and its people ahead of Ukrainian interests.

Surely Putin would have factored in that the US/Nato would pressurise Scholz into pausing Nordstream II once Russia recognised the two republics sovereignty. The UK media has upped its frenzy (if that's even possible) on Russia, and a COBRA (parliamentary meeting) meeting has taken place at Westminster, where denounciations of Putin and Russia from all political parties have come thick and fast, there's much talk of the widespread sanctions that the English government are about to implement against all things Russian.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 13:54 utc | 2

The borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, are they firmly indicated,
and if so, are there Ukie military units currently within those borders?

Posted by: librul | Feb 22 2022 14:07 utc | 3

I have seen this map before and the reference to 1922 and Lenin is curious.

At what stage/date of 1922 is it referring to?

The question is important because Lenin suffered a stroke in May 1922 - so spent most of that year incapacitated and bedridden - unable to control events such as this. The same was the case in 1923 before Lenin died in January 1924.

If Lenin spent most of 1922 incapacitated he wasn't directly controlling and running anything - such as dismembering and assembling Soviet Socialist Republics - so who was? Who was actually carrying out orders such as attaching Donbass/Novorossiya to Ukraine? It sure as heck wasn't Lenin after he began suffering strokes. So who was it?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:08 utc | 4

Re: Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 13:54 utc | 2

A COBRA meeting at which all things Russian are vilified.

Oh really.

So does that mean all Russian oligarch money in the City of London will be frozen? What will become of the owner of Chelsea FC Roman Abramovich and his BILLIONS?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:11 utc | 5

The borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, are they firmly indicated,
and if so, are there Ukie military units currently within those borders?

Posted by: librul | Feb 22 2022 14:07 utc | 3

So far, more than half of the territory of those regions is "under control", but it can change, the republics view the entire regions as their land, and Russians are very sympathetic to that view.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 14:13 utc | 6

B - sorry buddy but the map of Ukraine's territorial growth has some errors - the North West oblasts of Volhyn, Rovno and Ternopol were part of pre war Poland and acquired in 1939

I think that Stalin missed a trick when he annexed these areas to the Ukrainian SSR - should have left them as part of Poland - after all he did return the Bialystok district to post war Poland - or set up a separate Galician SSR (which would then have become an independent state when the USSR broke up)

If Ukraine did not contain these areas populated by Uniate Catholics then relations between the two countries of my ancestors (Ukraine and Russia) would have been far better

Posted by: Aslangeo | Feb 22 2022 14:15 utc | 7

As for what Putin will do with Ukraine.

Maybe.

But the history of Putin is a "minimalist" approach to conflict. Why change that style now?

The recognition of DPR & LPR tells me the Russians will potentially seek to "liberate" the entire regions of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts.

Look at a map - they are the two most Eastern Oblasts.

So will Putin go beyond there? Maybe, but the "minimalist" approach we have seen for the last 15 years suggests to me that they won't necessarily go that much further.

How much further? How about grabbing a slice of the Kharkiv/Kharkov Oblast - perhaps that Far Eastern area of Kharkiv/Kharkov east of the Oskil River.

Look at a map - it provides a natural buffer zone for Luhansk at least.

Would Russia want to fight a war that involves going into cities like Kharkiv? I doubt it.

If they go beyond Donetsk & Luhansk they really do open up a wider conflict - the type of wider conflict they have spent weeks/months denying they want.

I'm not sure I agree with Saker.

Why would they prove themselves as "liars" via a wider invasion? If they stick to Luhansk & Donetsk and thereabouts (perhaps Far Eastern Kharkiv/Kharkov) they can still (potentially) argue to split the EU from USA.

If they go well beyond that to the entire East & South of the country they really do throw away any chance of splitting the two and become incredibly reliant (& supplicant) to China.

Is that really what they want?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:17 utc | 8

If Lenin spent most of 1922 incapacitated he wasn't directly controlling and running anything - such as dismembering and assembling Soviet Socialist Republics - so who was?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:08 utc | 4

Lenin was not a dictator, the leadership was collective. For several years, the post of the first secretary of the Central Committee of the party did not have particular power, and Political Bureau was deciding, with some shifting majorities in the case of controversial decisions.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 14:19 utc | 9

re @b

I wonder why Scholz took this sensational step. ...

Clearly it's to celebrate the 100th Anniversary of The Reichstag Fire.

Posted by: chu teh | Feb 22 2022 14:23 utc | 10

Re: NS2 being "paused". A negligible change to the previous status of being permanently delayed by endless administrative technicalities. Just look at nuclear construction projects - the EU can easily keep that kind of thing going for a decade.

Just as with the recognition of the republics, it is a reality that has existed for a long time. Scholz is at least being honest that his government does not have the willingness to actually look out for its energy supply. Nice to get it out in the open. TTF natgas futures seem to have taken it with little reaction, i.e. it was already priced in.

Recognition of D/LNR's claims to the former full administrative borders, vs the Line of Contact per Minsk II, is more problematic, but I'm not expecting much to come of it... unless UA military makes a crazy large scale attack, that seems to be signaling the limit of a counterattack. But the government in Kiev/Kyiv now got what they claimed they wanted, stopping NS2, being "relevant" to EU energy security and thus keeping the IMF loans going for more years.

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 14:23 utc | 11

"So does that mean all Russian oligarch money in the City of London will be frozen? What will become of the owner of Chelsea FC Roman Abramovich and his BILLIONS?"

Julian (5).

Definitely not, there's many Russian donors to the Tory party in England, and at one point they could buy a lunch with a Tory MP if the price was right, these folk although Russian will not feel the pain of sanctions no matter what Johnson or Starmer says.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 14:24 utc | 12

Re Julian - Russian British Trade - UK has more to lose

from House of Lords - https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-trade-with-russia/#:~:text=Russia%3A%20Total%20trade,of%20trade%20deficit%20with%20Russia.&text=The%20total%20value%20of%20exports,imports%20was%20%C2%A39%2C771%20million.

The UK runs a GBP 3957 billion trade deficit with Russia (main imports refined oil products, crude oil, metals LNG - GBP 9771B) exports (cars, Pharma etc - GBP 5814B) - Russian exports particularly oil products are hard to replace right now.

UK foreign direct investment and assets in Russia are greater than Russian Assets in the UK - hard to believe with oligarch properties in Knightsbridge - but BP for example owns 20% of Rosneft shares (would they be frozen in a tit for tat exchange?) - ref https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1055049/russia-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2022-02-18.pdf

Of course it is possible / likely that there are considerable assets which are ultimately owned by Russians via third country companies but these would be harder to target

This might explain the great deal of loud barking but a rather pathetic bite of UK sanctions so far

Teddy Roosevelt said speak softly and carry a big stick - BOJO - scream loudly and carry a twig

Posted by: Aslangeo | Feb 22 2022 14:34 utc | 13

@chu teh | Feb 22 2022 14:23 utc | 10
Would be the 99th anniversary.

Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 22 2022 14:36 utc | 14

America runs even further away! Where after Poland, London?

Posted by: Geraldo | Feb 22 2022 14:36 utc | 15

re: L/DNR boundaries

Closer reading of the wording, as reported anyway, actually seems ambiguous about whether they refer to the pre-separation administrative boundaries of Ukrainian oblasts, or the LOC..... It would be nice to have clarity on this

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 14:40 utc | 16

Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:17 utc | 8

It has taken 8 years for Russia to acknowledge Donetsk and Lugansk are not part of Ukraine, and Donetsk and Lugansk are still not accepted as part of Russia proper. If Kharkov wants to be part of Russia, it will have to make a serious effort.
On a personal level things are easier. Everybody who lived in the USSR on February 6, 1992 can get the Russian nationality.

A small question: how is industry in Ukraine doing? Khartron, Motor Sich, Zaz? Or have these been replaced with a new generation of companies?

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 22 2022 14:41 utc | 17

Not one cubic meter of gas has passed through NS2 and if I’m not mistaken Putin said the high gas prices have already paid for the pipeline. So Russia is not taking a financial hit here. On top of that I remember reading in the comments that there would be cancellation penalties should Germany scrap NS2 (I may be mistaken about this). The real loser here is Germany. Gas prices are going to go through the roof.

The key question for me is that Russia recognised the full Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions. How are they going to clear the Ukies from the “occupied” areas?

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 14:46 utc | 18

I didnt think Ukraine was a country until briefly at the end of WW1,and then from 1991 of course. what's with the 1654-1917 period on the map?

Posted by: Nick | Feb 22 2022 14:55 utc | 19

Gas prices. For my small house, I payed EUR 120 nat gas+electricity per month. This year it is 200, but this is because old Gas supplier kicked me out (Montana Energie) and I had to go to the local gas supplier. At same price, but it's more of a conservative assumption on how much I will effectively consume.
New customers pay 2x the gas price of last year, 2.5x electricity (30->75ct).

Posted by: Tapio | Feb 22 2022 14:58 utc | 20

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 14:23 utc | 11

You are quite right about NS2. To paraphrase Aslangeo: a bit of soft barking to please the masters in Washington. Doesn't mean much.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 22 2022 15:00 utc | 21

Oh really.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:11 utc | 5

It would serve these oligarchs right for trusting the Brits with their money. I do wonder about Abramovich though. He's a Zionist and tends to keep quiet on even football-related matters in England. My guess would thus be that the UK authorities will leave him and his billions alone.

Posted by: Nick | Feb 22 2022 15:02 utc | 22

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:08 utc | 4
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 14:19 utc | 9
Wikipedia/Ukraine
World War I destroyed both empires. The Russian Revolution of 1917 led to the founding of the Soviet Union under the Bolsheviks, and subsequent civil war in Russia. A Ukrainian national movement for self-determination emerged, with heavy Communist and Socialist influence. Several Ukrainian states briefly emerged: the internationally recognized Ukrainian People's Republic (UPR, the predecessor of modern Ukraine, was declared on 23 June 1917 by the First Universal proclaimed at first as a part of the Russian Republic; after the October Revolution, the Ukrainian People's Republic proclaimed its independence on 22 January 1918 by the Fourth Universal), the Hetmanate, the Directorate and the Bolshevik Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (or Soviet Ukraine) successively established territories in the former Russian Empire; while the West Ukrainian People's Republic and the Hutsul Republic emerged briefly in the Ukrainian lands of former Austro-Hungarian territory.[78]
The short-lived Unification Act was an agreement signed on 22 January 1919 by the Ukrainian People's Republic and the West Ukrainian People's Republic on the St. Sophia Square in Kyiv.[79] This led to civil war, and an anarchist movement called the Black Army (later renamed to the Revolutionary Insurgent Army of Ukraine) developed in Southern Ukraine under the command of the anarchist Nestor Makhno during the Russian Civil War.[80] They protected the operation of "free soviets" and libertarian communes in the Free Territory, an attempt to form a stateless anarchist society from 1918 to 1921 during the Ukrainian Revolution, fighting both the tsarist White Army under Denikin and later the Red Army under Trotsky, before being defeated by the latter in August 1921.
Poland defeated Western Ukraine in the Polish–Ukrainian War, but failed against the Bolsheviks in an offensive against Kyiv. According to the Peace of Riga, western Ukraine was incorporated into Poland, which in turn recognised the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in March 1919. With establishment of the Soviet power, Ukraine lost half of its territory, while Moldavian autonomy was established on the left bank of the Dniester River. Ukraine became a founding member of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in December 1922.[81]

Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Feb 22 2022 15:04 utc | 23

The responses can only result in further escalation, without the means to stop it leading to world war.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Feb 22 2022 15:05 utc | 24

The anti-Zelensky articles are interesting and instructive... expect him gone by end of week.

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 22 2022 15:05 utc | 25

Without the gas from Nord-Stream 2, Germany and other recipients of this gas will, sooner rather than later have a wintertime “freeze in the dark” period. If this affects a few million Europeans, even if for only a few days, Germany and the others affected will be down on their knees like supplicants before the Czar, begging Russia to send gas through Nord-Stream 2.

Posted by: Antoinetta III | Feb 22 2022 15:06 utc | 26

re: administrative borders

Looks like it was a slight mis-statement by press secretary Peskov, who initially referenced the 2014 claims of D/LNR which were the full oblasts, but Peskov has since clarified it to refer to the current existing boundaries, i.e. LOC

??

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 15:06 utc | 27

Since like all things administrative in Germany, (especially Berlin!) move typically at a glacial pace, one hopes the halting of NS2 is in name only, while the slow process may in fact be moving along regardless on the original, artificially slow timeline.

Surely, if i know what scrapping NS2 ultimately means for Germany and Europe, one hopes those in charge know it too.

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 22 2022 15:07 utc | 28

@26 Antoinetta III

Germany, being one of the wealthiest in EU, will probably never face this. If there should ever be a shortage, it would unfortunately fall on the poorest countries first.

What will happen is prices go up and make EU heavy industry lose an energy cost advantage vs the far east, which they used to enjoy.

Posted by: ptb | Feb 22 2022 15:12 utc | 29

Nordstream 2 is essential for viability of German chemical industry which is why BASF is a major investor. Currently German households have highest electricity costs anywhere because they subsidize industry to keep German trade competitive

Yet wage demands are now factoring the huge rents and energy prices caused by ECB interest rate policies and Green Politics

Scholz regime will implode as more Germans take to streets. Covid has exposed the West as fractured and run for a distant elite which despises its people

Putin has stepped in to defend his kith and kin. If you watch Al- Jazeera you see a video of a ukr trench with Nazi symbols and no comment from Qatar TV at all

Europe is going to disintegrate it lacks core technologies to compete with Asia and now has priced energy like caviar

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 22 2022 15:17 utc | 30

As Joe Biden has already informed working Americans, this means Americans also get higher energy prices and the higher inflation that comes with high energy prices.

The LNG plants will be working full speed to make that LNG that is then to be tanked across the Atlantic. This means higher demand for US gas, which means higher prices for Americans. Enjoy the rest of the Biden Winter. The Rich get Richer ...

Posted by: Brandon | Feb 22 2022 15:18 utc | 31

The demand for gas will only grow. Asian societies will consume more with growing wealth. Germany cant force Russia to sell its gas to Germany. Russia is free to sell gas to Asia and it will do so after this rupture. But what happens to Germany's industrial base, especially automotive? If the companies cant propduce cars in Germany for a competitive price, they will close the factories here and move them to Asia. What happens to the poor who cant heat their appartments in winter, when the energy prices are exploding? From a German POV, it doesnt make any sense to buy liquified gas from the US and destroy our competitive base. German MPs have enough money to pay for rising energy costs. But what happens to the common man?

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 22 2022 15:18 utc | 32

The key question for me is that Russia recognised the full Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions. How are they going to clear the Ukies from the “occupied” areas?

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 14:46 utc | 18

In summer, Russia integrated the republics economically, apparently with a very rapid growth of personal incomes there (parity with Rostov and Voronezh, the adjacent Russian regions that Ms. Truss does not recognize as Russian) and industrial production. 10 billion dollars were budgeted for that, over several years, plus an unknown amount of industrial investments that may have a rapid return -- steel shortage and high prices of steel.

This approach to the rest of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions would require similar funds, I do not know demographics, perhaps half? There would be large benefits, and some minuses. Northern part of Lugansk supplies Donetsk region with water for people and industry, and Ukrainian government was toying with a new pipeline to supply "under control" Mariupol and cut-off the republics. More importantly, the new line of control would go through rural areas, so cities and factories would be safe from shelling, many people who left Donbass could return (40-50% left) to familiar homes, good jobs and security.

The minus would be international brouhaha, but Biden already signaled minor sanctions for a minor incursion. Concerning combat and related losses, I would expect a careful approach, but including some rapid movements.

It is possible that Russia would propose to keep Minsk agreements, i.e. no formal incorporation of the republics to Russia, but letting them negotiate conditions of recognizing the government in Kiev, would that government be inclined to talk with them -- which it is not, contrary to the agreements. Importantly, China is not in favor of formal annexation, because their case of Taiwan is "territorial integrity trumps the will of the people", and a formal change of control posits the reverse. The West, of course, keeps both principles, choosing when they wish to apply each of them.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 15:18 utc | 33

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:08 utc | 4
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 14:19 utc | 9
Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Feb 22 2022 15:04 utc | 23
According to the Peace of Riga, western Ukraine was incorporated into Poland, which in turn recognised the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in March '1919'.
The year '1919' must be a typo. The correct year is '1922'.
Peace of Riga/Wikipedia
The Peace of Riga, also known as the Treaty of Riga (Polish: Traktat Ryski), was signed in Riga on 18 March 1921, among Poland, Soviet Russia (acting also on behalf of Soviet Belarus) and Soviet Ukraine. The treaty ended the Polish–Soviet War.[2]

Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Feb 22 2022 15:19 utc | 34

You have to hand it to Sleepy Joe, he called it right.

US intelligence on this was spot on, which should be cause for alarm in Moscow.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Feb 22 2022 15:20 utc | 35

Wall Street yawns

There was some breathless reporting yesterday about stock futures. Now that the markets are open, the indices are essentially flat. Russian etfs are down about 10% (a buying opportunity?)

An article on seeking alpha details the effect on various economies due to sanctions on russia. Conclusion: ukraine, not russia gets hit the hardest.

Posted by: Platero | Feb 22 2022 15:22 utc | 36

Julian 8
For Russia to have any security, there are issues in Ukraine which Putin spoke about that will have to be dealt with. On joint security with the US as or the security proposal, Russia will not be taking no for an answer. His stated purpose of moving forces to Syria was to create conditions under which negotiations could take place. Like Syria, Ukraine needs cleaning up and its master, the US does need to be brought to the negotiating table. If they have any sense of survival left in what they call their minds, it would be a good idea for them to start negotiating a security agreement with Russia. Putin is not getting any younger and many years of R&D have come to fruition with the deployment of large numbers of next gen weapons systems. My thought is Putin does intend for Russia to have that security before he leaves office.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 15:24 utc | 37

Posted by: Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:08 utc | 4
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 14:19 utc | 9
Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Feb 22 2022 15:04 utc | 23
Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Feb 22 2022 15:19 utc | 34
Mea culpa !!
The year '1919' must be a typo. The correct year is '1921' !!

Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Feb 22 2022 15:26 utc | 38

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 14:46 utc | 18
On top of that I remember reading in the comments that there would be cancellation penalties should Germany scrap NS2 (I may be mistaken about this).

This is a really tough legal question, you can read more about it here (in German).

But since Scholz didn't wait for any EU sanctions and instead took it to the administrative level, compensations for the cancellation might still be on the table. The German government isn't really all that bright when it comes to those decisions and I wouldn't be surprised if we had to pay penalties again (like with the nuclear & coal plants).

Posted by: qubix | Feb 22 2022 15:28 utc | 39

I think NS2 is, primarily, an investment in the future and the designated replacement for Druzhba. It doesn't need to come into operation ASAP, especially if there are political considerations at stake. That calculation may change very quickly when and if Ukrainian gas transit comes to a complete halt, but for the time being there's room to play coy about NS2.

I wonder, since the gas prices are artificially jacked up, and furthermore artificially tied to the price of consumer electricity -- could that be part of an EU/Germany scheme to actually raise domestic pressure in favor of NS2? At the end of the day, and especially in the event of a "sudden" collapse of Ukraine, the current policy of throttling Russian gas deliveries, ostensibly for political purposes, has to give. Alternatives that are a decade or two away are not viable solutions.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 22 2022 15:32 utc | 40

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 13:54 utc | 2

Suspending NS2 certification might prove eventually a clever move from the part of Scholtz. Because Germany will own that decision - and as well its possible removal.
It is unlikely that it would be included in a 'Sanctions from Hell' US package then ...

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Feb 22 2022 15:33 utc | 41

b, you can’t leave this update without including that tweet from your Twitter account about Hungary preparing for humanitarian action:

https://twitter.com/MoonofA/status/1496113320570544128

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Feb 22 2022 15:34 utc | 42

Reichstag fire: What is the new doxa about the culprits? The archives would have revealed a different version to the old story of the mentally ill Dutch communist. Any further readings would be appreciated.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 22 2022 15:35 utc | 43

US Gas prices up about 3% so far on the day. Low of 4.42 this morning, now over 4.54.

Posted by: Brandon | Feb 22 2022 15:37 utc | 44

@Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 14:13 utc | 6

So far, more than half of the territory of those regions is "under control", but it can change, the republics view the entire regions as their land, and Russians are very sympathetic to that view.

Then it would seem that there is a large chance of a military confrontation
soon to come.

If the Ukies are not cleared out right away then they will be reinforced...
by NATO?! And wouldn't that make for a dangerous situation.

Posted by: librul | Feb 22 2022 15:43 utc | 45

So far Germany is playing the dutiful servant of the empire. Let's see how long this will last before ordianry Germans start screaming.

Posted by: Steve | Feb 22 2022 15:44 utc | 46

@41 - that’s a very good point Greg Galloway!

It reminds me of a recent occurrence in Canada when the Canadian Food Inspection Agency suspended trade to the US in fresh potatoes from Prince Edward Island. They claimed to do this because the US was about to, and they’d rather have control over the ban (and it’s subsequent lifting … at some unknown date in the future.) With all the attention in Ottawa, the Potato Convoy protest in Charlottetown PEI might have gone unnoticed to most.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-potato-convoy-charlottetown-1.6292958

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Feb 22 2022 15:44 utc | 47

Strange that US will still buy oil from Russia while restricting the amount of gas provided to Germany and EU. I have always encouraged Bernhard to explain why Germany seems so submissive to the US.

While living in Europe during the 1990's and early 2000's, it seemed to me that Germany was leading the EU to become an important economic block, competitive with US. My theory has always been that with the crisis of 2008 and the bailout of DeutscheBank by the Fed, something fundamentally changed...some kind of threat. Since then, EU and Germany only push the Atlanticist agenda, to their own detriment, I would say.

Posted by: mwm | Feb 22 2022 15:47 utc | 48

@mwm | Feb 22 2022 15:47 utc | 48

Fukushima nuclear "accident"

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 15:55 utc | 49

b said;"It is political harakiri and will therefore most likely be reversed."

For Russia, and the people of Europe, I hope so.

As far as Russia Vs.the empire: "What goes around, comes around."

This "push back" from Russia, hopefully, will take place with minimal loss of life.

They were warned about NATO's eastward expansion.......

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 22 2022 15:55 utc | 50

Craig Murray on Twitter appears to believe that sanctions against Russia will be specific so as not to damage the interests of the elite. Maybe the so called sanctions and there severity parroted by the media are for our benefit.

https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1496075374291263495?cxt=HHwWjoC5nYuokMMpAAAA

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 15:56 utc | 51

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 22 2022 15:18 utc | 33

Thank you for the reply. It is not an area I am familiar with.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 15:57 utc | 52

Bad faith actor Zelensky scrapping the 1994 Budapest Accords was a self-defeating move. Putin doesn’t take nuclear threats kindly … see Sochi and visit Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud who threatened terror attacks ahead of the Olympic Winter Games.

NATO Expansion – The Budapest Blow Up 1994
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2021-11-24/nato-expansion-budapest-blow-1994

Posted by: Oui | Feb 22 2022 15:58 utc | 53

Russia still considers the breakaway regions to be part of Ukraine. Apparently "independence" in this case means only the independence these regions would enjoy if the Minsk agreements were fully implemented. From Russia's Permanent Representative to the U.N.:

Nebenzia, at the UNSC briefing:

“Many of our colleagues are willing to attest that the Minsk Agreements are dead, which is not true. Kiev still has to implement them. We (Russia) remain open for a diplomatic solution, but we will not allow for another bloodbath in Donbas.”

Beyond what is clearly stated, this is a simple, yet elegant way to reconcile Russia's actions with the SCO charter, which calls for respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity while not supporting separatists.

Posted by: Woogs | Feb 22 2022 15:59 utc | 54

When Biden threatened that the Russians would have "targeted assassinations" a couple of days ago he showed his hand. The fascists in power want to get rid of Zelensky. Guess who the first "targeted assassination" will be.

Posted by: Bob In Portland | Feb 22 2022 16:00 utc | 55

I think I’m going to enjoy the UK money launderers repatriating the Russian oligarchy’s stolen assets almost as much as watching that bellicose arsehole Tom Tugenhadt donning his combat fatigues, picking up his plastic SA80 rifle and dashing off to the Ukraine to shed his blue blood for democracy.
p.s. I also do sarcasm.

Posted by: Ingwe | Feb 22 2022 16:02 utc | 56

While Russia is completely justified at this last moment to recognize DPR & LPR in order to provide military protection and prevent a massacre, it probably recognizes that although the full pre-existing Oblasts re-made whole would be preferable, that would come about only through a Russian offensive which - IMO - was never the Russian intention. What could change that would be the Ukrainians going ahead with an assault, but that moment seems to be fading for them - that has been the whole point of "Russia's unprovoked military buildup" to echo the western propaganda narrative.

But forget the fucking US/western disinformation campaign; if humanity survives, the true history of this event will eventually be recorded. Despite the ghoulish US stoking the war fever I doubt very much that either Ukraine or Russia relishes the thought of the bloodshed that would follow either side's decision to launch a major offensive.

I am curious that b did not at least remark on the other item of note from the UNSC meeting of yesterday. Russia's new "best friend" China either meekly or coyly did not come to Russia's defense but seemed to side with the hypocritical consensus that Russia's action was illegal. Well, well, well. I'll probably take all kinds of heat for this but it seems it took this event to "flush that n@#$%r out of the woodpile."

Posted by: vinnieoh | Feb 22 2022 16:03 utc | 57

Posted by: qubix | Feb 22 2022 15:28 utc | 39

Maybe the chancellor ‘stopped’ a pipeline that isn’t running to make sure it didn’t get sanctioned. The EU is in more or less the political arm of USnato, so perhaps he was quick on his feet to get it off their table.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 22 2022 16:05 utc | 58

Norwegian @49

I did have in mind a "Fukushima" for the German banking system, but it is just a theory. Is that your thought as well?

Posted by: mwm | Feb 22 2022 16:07 utc | 59

This article appears to suggest that in the deal to recognise the sovereignty of the two Donbas republics, it allows for Russia to set up military instillations in both of them.

https://www.rt.com/russia/550221-plans-donbass-military-bases/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 16:07 utc | 60

@Julian | Feb 22 2022 14:17 utc | 8

Why would they prove themselves as "liars" via a wider invasion?

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 16:09 utc | 61

vetinLA 50 The quote from b's piece "It is political harakiri and will therefore most likely be reversed."

What we have seen to date is I think just the entree. Like Escobar said, "the shows not over until the fat transvestite sings"

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 22 2022 16:10 utc | 62

"Suspending NS2 certification might prove eventually a clever move from the part of Scholtz."

Greig Galloway (41)

A sort of pre-emptive strike by Scholz, the down side of that is, Biden will want to make sure that Nordstream II is never revived, of course the German public might have something to say about that when the price of fuel becomes far too expensive, and mass demos hit the streets. Then we'll know what Scholz is made of.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 16:13 utc | 63

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 14:46 utc | 18

Gas prices are going through the roof? They've already gone through the roof! More than doubled in the past 18 months and set to go ballistic if NS2 falls through.

Posted by: Barofsky | Feb 22 2022 16:14 utc | 64

@mwm | Feb 22 2022 16:07 utc | 59

The closure of German nuclear power plants after Fukushima didn't make any logical sense. Closing NS2 doesn't make any logical sense. These events will both have the same effect on Germany.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2022 16:17 utc | 65

I've been listening to Martyanov's audiobook Losing Military Supremacy and one his core themes is deindustrialization. I'd be interested to learn how much Lugansk and Donetsk have retained of their industrial capacity and whether they have undergone significant brain drain like the rest of the Ukraine

Posted by: mastameta | Feb 22 2022 16:19 utc | 66

Sholz looks very creepy. I bet 1000euro that the CIA has some very nasty videos of him or something of that sort.

Posted by: Dimitar Apostolov | Feb 22 2022 16:19 utc | 67

Any thoughts on why Zelenskyy changed his tune? Last month he was downplaying the threat of a Russian invasion, but now he's calling on the "West" to stop "appeasing" Russia and demanding a clear timetable for Ukraine to join NATO. Has he been successfully brought to heel by the "West" (i.e. the US) or does he feel like his back's against the wall?

Posted by: Cynica | Feb 22 2022 16:20 utc | 68

Posted by: qubix | Feb 22 2022 15:28 utc | 39

Had to use machine translation but an interesting read.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 16:24 utc | 69

Peter AU1 @37--

It appears most commentators have yet to read Putin's speech in its entirety on the subject of Russia's security. I highlighted several of those points on the previous thread. IMO, the most crucial is Zelensky's repudiation of the Budapest Agreement where Ukraine gave up being a nuclear armed state, and secondly the stationing/presence of any NATO forces at anytime in Ukraine. Currently, all the OSCE Security Treaties are broken by the NATO Outlaws and that won't fly with Putin/Russia. On this as a "process," I completely agree with Saker, although I've focused more of the geoeconomic aspect of it all that will lead to this.

Another crucial point was Putin's vow to bring to justice the Odessa Massacre perpetrators, which IMO also means capturing that area of Ukraine. Indeed, Putin's extensive history lesson that led to helping show the Ukraine how to decommunize itself is a foreshadow of what's to come. At minimum, I expect what's depicted in pink on the above map to be returned to Russia and the rest to be governed by a Russian supervised regime in Kiev. Under no circumstances will a future Ukranian state be allowed to flirt with NATO and will have its security guaranteed by Russia.

Clearly, ensuring Russia's security is more important than the costs to be incurred in rehabilitating a new Ukraine--as Putin was very clear about, Russia has always aided Ukraine, for at root they are kin. In the process of reconstruction, I expect the Nazi fervor to be hunted down and irradicated--again. Some will escape to their benefactors as was the case before; but tagged with the Genocide accusation, they will be hunted down like the terrorists they are. I insist people read Putin's speech to discover the direct accusations he makes against the Outlaw US Empire, for they are very pointed, and IMO neither he nor Russia are in a forgiving mood now and won't be for quite some time. Russia is fed up with the West and its shit and will go about fixing things to suit itself and those nations willing to join with Russia and China in creating a new Era of possibilities for humanity--they have the guns and the numbers, so it's move over Rover time. Some will try to paint Russia's actions as Imperialism, but they're very wrong. Russia's actions are an effort to provide a just outcome to two very unjust periods of history--that of the Russian Revolution and the dissolution of the USSR. It's all there in Putin's speech.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 16:27 utc | 70

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 22 2022 16:05 utc | 58

I totally agree; right now it's not really stopped in a final sense, just the certification has been kind of paused in an official manner (aka not relying on the certification authority anymore). On the other hand, I can't envision a scenario where the certification would be re-started... it will be interesting to hear what Biden, Zelensky and others are still calling for in the coming days.

Posted by: qubix | Feb 22 2022 16:27 utc | 71

Russian NatGas, Russian PKOs, and Chinese SilkRoad are doing more for Europe than NATO ever did since 1991...

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 22 2022 16:31 utc | 72

@karlof1 (70)

"... Budapest Agreement where Ukraine gave up being a nuclear armed state"
Ukraine NEVER was a nuclear armed state. Watch yesterday's Alexander Mercouris on this; he is extremely clear on exactly this Western false narrative.

Posted by: bjd | Feb 22 2022 16:31 utc | 73

as for china's position on the matter, I venture that it would be the same as their take on Crimea which is to abstain from taking a prominent stance on it. that does mean not supporting Russia but simply that the principle of self determination is difficult to distinguish rhetorically from that of separatism. china still does not recognize Kosovo.

I myself think that is an intellectually honest approach because it is difficult to generalize the principle, as every case depends on historical factors particular to it.

the larger principle, in top of the material interests, that binds Russia and china together is sovereignty and multilateralism. the rest is just details. Russia and china are about action not words, unlike the west which is reduced to a PR and propaganda machine. it really does not matter what china officially says about Ukraine. that's just tongue wagging anyway. leave the tongue wagging and ideological hoohah to the NATO puppets. why bother aping that

Posted by: mastameta | Feb 22 2022 16:35 utc | 74

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 16:27 utc | 70

It was electrifying watching it live, a historical history lesson, and yes, I could not listen and post at the same time but the reference to Odessa and justice to be eventually served struck me. The show goes on since the new republics claim their rights to the occupied areas by Ukraine, so that's the next chapter. For us in Europe it is cross your fingers before you go to fill up the tank, fortunately down here the weather is mild so heating costs are not excessive, some restraint and some extra linen at night will do.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 22 2022 16:41 utc | 75

Why would the number of cease fire violations automatically provide arguments for the rebel/russian side as implied in the article? Does it state at some point that those violations are all ukrainian? Did I miss the part where they describe their methodology for counting the violations?

Posted by: mn | Feb 22 2022 16:50 utc | 76

Russia spreads its military wings.

"The upper house of Russia’s parliament has granted permission for the country’s military to be deployed abroad, following a request on Tuesday from President Vladimir Putin.

The authorization grants Putin the right to use Russian forces abroad “in accordance with the principles and norms of international law,” the Senate’s resolution, which was released to the media, shows. The document does not impose any specific limits on the use of the military, with the number of troops"

https://www.rt.com/russia/550276-putin-military-use-abroad/

Nukes in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, well maybe, see how you like it Biden.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 16:50 utc | 77

Russia to respect both republics border lines, which means they'll need to clean house as Ukrainian forces currently occupy land inside the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk.

https://www.rt.com/russia/550239-donbass-republics-define-borders/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 22 2022 16:55 utc | 78

I agree this is a process, but who said Putin will invade Ukraine? USNato.

Is Putin prepared to invade Ukraine? Absolutely, more than ever. However that doesn't imply he will; it implies readiness should it be necessary.

That readiness includes financial planning as Russia has been accumulating foreign currency in its reserves to the tune of over 600 Billion. And that's only what is public knowledge.

As I wrote earlier, it appears this is a necessary calculated risk on Putin's part and the timing is also part of that equation. You can tell by Putin's speech that the situation with Ukraine and USNato reached critical mass some time ago making it necessary for Putin to plan, act and command respect for Russia's security.

Posted by: Circe | Feb 22 2022 16:59 utc | 79

Luhansk and Donetsk (Donbas) are populated by majority Russian-speaking people. Ukraine has outlawed the speaking of Russian in the country, and appears to be trying to ethnically cleanse Russians; which is Genocide.

As a member state of the Untied Nations, Russia has a Responsibility-to-Protect whenever genocide is taking place, and the Russian Army is now positioned to undertake that responsibility.

Posted by: Hannibal | Feb 22 2022 17:02 utc | 80

Not so long ago, when the United States created the client state of Kosovo by wresting it from Serbia on the basis of false premises of genocide, Putin warned that this violation of international laws would have consequences. Isn't the recognition of Donbas one of them? For what is the difference if not that here it is not half of the population that has demanded this secession, but more likely 90%?

Posted by: Jean-Do | Feb 22 2022 17:02 utc | 81

Nick @ 19 is largely correct. The bulk of what is now Ukraine was consolidated under Russian rule by Catherine the Great. Russo-Turkish War 1768-1774. Other actions the balance of her reign. The center portion of the posted map marked 1654 is purest fiction. Not Russia, not Ukraine. The notion of a place called Ukraine does not exist until 1880s. There is an ongoing campaign to rewrite history to make it appear Ukraine has been continuously extant since Ukie savants built the pyramids.Yes, the nationalists claim that.

Don’t look to Wiki. Comprehensively rewritten by nationalist ideologues. Academic history has suffered as well. Use older texts.

Posted by: older | Feb 22 2022 17:08 utc | 82

Interesting read by Pepe Escobar

The baby twins actually declared their independence in May 2014. In 2015 they signed the Minsk agreements as one of the interested parties. Theoretically they could even be back within Ukraine if Kiev would ever decide to respect the agreements, which will never happen because the U.S. has vetoed it since 2015. Moreover, the people of Donbass do not want to be subjected to a regime harboring neo-Nazis.

As Nebenzya outlined, “I would like to remind you that at the time of the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the LPR and DPR had already declared independence. The fact that Russia today recognized it does not change the composition of the parties to the Minsk agreements, since Russia is not one (…) Another thing is that the Minsk agreements have long been openly sabotaged by Ukraine under the auspices of our Western colleagues. Now we see that many colleagues want to sign that the Minsk agreements are dead. But this is not the case (…) We are still open to diplomacy, but we do not intend to allow a new bloody massacre in the Donbass.”

And here’s the clincher, directly addressing imperial support for the killing of ethnic Russians in Donbass: “The main task of our decision [on recognizing independence] was to preserve and protect these lives. This is more important than all your threats.”

There you go: Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a concept invented by the Americans to launch wars, used by Russia for preventing one.

The Birth of the Baby Twins: Russia’s Strategic Swing Drives NATOstan Nuts

Posted by: Down South | Feb 22 2022 17:09 utc | 83

Paco @75--

Thanks for your reply. I got to it all late, again, but the circumstances causing that are over. I've still to read the Security Council meeting transcript where I'm sure more will be found that complements Putin's speech. Other speeches were given, and they ought to be found and consulted. IMO, it was a collective decision backed by the whole of Russia. Eventually, Europe will gain its freedom from the Outlaws and their Neoliberal chains, but its close association with the Outlaw's crimes and its previous Imperialism will take several generations to be atoned. Russia will help with some of that as it reorders Europe's security basis while NATO goes out of business--not tomorrow but eventually. The corner's been turned, and a new path presents itself.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2022 17:11 utc | 84

CBC has a reporter in Russia near the border. I guess that means CBC doesn't think there will be a war. Their talking heads are still going on about the imminent invasion, but they don't give any source for this "news", not even "officials" "intelligence sources" or think tankers. They wouldn't just make stuff up, would they?

Posted by: Keith McClary | Feb 22 2022 17:19 utc | 85

@Down South #83
The main item of note, from the Escobar article you posted, is that it seems Pepe doesn't think China is going to recognize the 2 republics.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 22 2022 17:29 utc | 86

@ Keith McClary | Feb 22 2022 17:19 utc | 85... are you getting this off cbc news? what is the name of the reporter?

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 17:30 utc | 87

mastameta | Feb 22 2022 16:35 utc | 74

Points well made and taken. China's statement yesterday did apparently coincide with remarks that Russia and China jointly made recently (re: sovereignty and independence.) You are correct to liken my remarks to aping the tongue-wagging and ideological hoohah.

Without endlessly going over ground already fully covered here, I regarded Russia's actions as truly necessary to prevent another human tragedy, and like I've already said, I don't believe this is where they wanted to end up.

But I was disappointed that - at this juncture with the potential still present for a full-scale conflict - that China could not at least offer some UNSC support for the humanitarian aspect of Russia's action. China's careful balancing act yesterday is consistent with their past behavior, but it IS disappointing that even they would not make the case that Russia's actions probably prevent another human tragedy.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Feb 22 2022 17:31 utc | 88

The Chinese statement at UNSC was very brief. They upheld the notions of sovereignty and borders but did so by qualifying that they also always looked at characteristics specific to any event in question. A statement by the Ukraine representative used a rather chilling metaphor describing the Russian Federation (and presumably "Russians") as akin to a "virus" which was infecting both the UNSC chamber as well as the eastern European region. That was quite ugly.

The Russian statement that those responsible for the Odessa massacre would face justice - the western press a few days ago featured breathless stories that Russia had drawn up "lists" of persons inside Ukraine to be hunted down and presumably "assassinated". That may have been a reference to Odessa & future justice, which suggests that NATO intelligence did get hold ahead of time the decisions announced yesterday . But what explains the rushed escape of personnel to Poland?

Posted by: jayc | Feb 22 2022 17:32 utc | 89

” It is political harakiri and will therefore most likely be reversed”
Sure. When Ukraine again controls Crimea. Not holding my breath.

Posted by: Dachshund | Feb 22 2022 17:33 utc | 90

@ jayc | Feb 22 2022 17:32 utc | 89... maybe that rush to poland was concern over russias statement they would go after the command center...

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 17:36 utc | 91

james | 87
Briar Stewart on radio this morning.
Also, second video here:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-belarus-military-drills-1.6358686

Posted by: Keith McClary | Feb 22 2022 17:37 utc | 92

@vinnieoh #88
I have said many times that I believe China is happy to let Russia (or anyone else like North Korea) bear the brunt of US displeasure so that they can continue to sell stuff to the West.
My view is that it is highly unlikely China will officially recognize the 2 republics even as they make noises about a multi-polar world.
The only way I see it happening is if Taiwan really attempts to declare independence, or perhaps some weird form of stronger pushback against the Spratlys etc occurs.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 22 2022 17:37 utc | 93

"I wonder why Scholz took this sensational step. The U.S. reaction seems way more muted." -b

Maybe he's got more wits than he's been given credit for -- the project approval was delayed until Q3 22 anyway, so announcing it is halted at this moment has little cost and avoids being brow-beaten into halting it on someone else's (America's) terms. This way he keeps some control of when it can be restored.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 22 2022 17:41 utc | 94

Having thought about it a boit longer, the recognition of LNR and DNR dont change one bit of the fundamentals. Ukraine still needs capital from its Western sponsors to make up for the gab from the hyped war threat. Nobody is going to invest in a state on the brink of perceived war. IMO: The recognition is not a singular moment, but just another piece in the puzzle to make the cost for Western states to sponsor Ukraine go up.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 22 2022 17:43 utc | 95

@ Keith McClary | Feb 22 2022 17:37 utc | 92.... thanks.. i have never seen her write an article for cbc news, but i see the clip embedded in the associated press dispatch to cbc.... i think that is all legit... i wonder how hard it would've been for her to see the dynamic over at the donbass line? i wonder what it looks, or looked like over their?

@ Arne Hartmann | Feb 22 2022 17:43 utc | 95... yes, i think so too.. if it is all fictitious imf, world bank and etc. money, i am sure this works for wall st.. have to keep those big banks happy!

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 17:53 utc | 96

@ keith - https://everipedia.org/briar-stewart

Posted by: james | Feb 22 2022 17:55 utc | 97

Looks to me that our NATO friends just got a military technical measure up their tight arses. Hope they now know what military technical measure is. “Technically” you recognize independence of a separating providence, and then the “military” is invited to assist the security of the new independent country. Our NATO partners are slow learners. 2008?

Posted by: Kooshy | Feb 22 2022 17:57 utc | 98

Would Russia want to fight a war that involves going into cities like Kharkiv? I doubt it.

I am amazed at the lack of memory of events following the 2014 Maidan Putsch.

Kharkiv held a referendum in which they voted overwhelmingly to seceed.

Kharkiv received "Special" treatment ala Odessa to make them change their mind(s)

They haven't forgotten....

It may very well prove that they, with Novorossian help, throw off the yoke of their Nazi quislings..

Same with most of Ukraine east of the Denipr...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 22 2022 17:58 utc | 99

During the days in which the US Congress debated the second AUMF which paved the way for the US invasion of Iraq I sent an e-mail to every sitting US Senator. Among other points I tried to make regarding the folly of that endeavor I wrote this: "Now is not the time to remain silent for the sake of political expediency."

Posted by: vinnieoh | Feb 22 2022 17:59 utc | 100