Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 19, 2022

Russia Is Pressing For More Concessions While Donbas Heats Up

Over the years Joe Biden has said a lot of nonsense. This though might top it all.

Biden Says Putin Has Chosen ‘Catastrophic’ War Over Diplomacy

Speaking from the Roosevelt Room in the White House, Mr. Biden said “we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days,” adding that “we believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”

Asked whether he thinks that Mr. Putin is still wavering about whether to invade, Mr. Biden said, “I’m convinced he’s made the decision.” Later, he added that his impression of Mr. Putin’s intentions is based on “a significant intelligence capability.”

Russia will not attack the Ukraine and will not target Kiev unless Russia itself is attacked in significant ways. Paul Robinson explains why:

For the past 15 years, ever since the Munich speech, Russian officials have been arguing against the unilateral use of force and demanding a UN-centered security system founded on international law. Were we to wake up one day and find that Russian tanks were rolling towards Kiev without any kind of excuse, it would amount to a complete abandonment of 15 years of argumentation as well as a negation of the entire legal/moral position built up by the Russian Federation in that period, a position reinforced just this month in the Putin/Xi statement.

It would also be very odd. For you can hardly achieve the objective of a multipolar world based on the principles of UN supremacy and international law by means of a massive breach of those very same principles. It would be extraordinarily self-defeating. A certain skepticism about the allegedly “imminent” Russian invasion of Ukraine is therefore due. It’s not impossible, but one has to wonder why, after so many years of consistency, Putin would suddenly change his position in such a drastic way.

Russia will help the rebellious Donbas region should it be attacked by Ukrainian government forces. The support will be in form of supplies and long range artillery assaults on Ukrainian troop concentrations.

The border of the Donbas region to Ukraine is definitely heating up.

Yesterday the OSCE observer mission, which covers the border, recorded a record number of incidents:


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These ceasefire violations were mostly by small to medium artillery rounds with unknown targets. The Donetsk militia also reported (vid) the interception of an Ukrainian sabotage group.

The OSCE observer mission also wanted to investigate the alleged attack on a kindergarten on the Ukrainian side:

The SMM was only able to conduct its assessment from a distance of about 50m from the north-eastern facade and of about 30m from the south-western facade of the damaged building, as a law enforcement officer did not allow the Mission to access the site saying that an investigation was ongoing.

This seems to support claims that the attack was a false flag created by the Ukrainian side.

Denis Pushilin, the leader of Donetsk, and Leonid Pasechnik, the leader of Luhansk, have ordered the evacuation of all civilians from the Donetzk and Luhansk regions to Russia. Moscow has activated its civil emergency agencies to provide for the refugees. Together the regions have some 4.6 million inhabitants.

All able men in the regions were called up for duty in the militia.

This evacuation follows a Russian plan Dimitri Orlof described ten months ago:

[W]e have to pay careful attention to the official pronouncements Putin has made over the years, and to take them as face value. First, he said that Russia does not need any more territory; it has all the land it could ever want. Second, he said that Russia will follow the path of maximum liberalization in granting citizenship to compatriots and that, in turn, the well-being of Russia’s citizens is a top priority. Third, he said that resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine through military means is unacceptable. Given these constraints, what courses of action remain open?

The answer, I believe, is obvious: evacuation. There are around 3.2 million residents in Donetsk People’s Republic and 1.4 million in Lugansk People’s Republic, for a total of some 4.6 million residents. This may seem like a huge number, but it’s moderate by the scale of World War II evacuations. Keep in mind that Russia has already absorbed over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without much of a problem. Also, Russia is currently experiencing a major labor shortage, and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be most welcome.
...
Domestically, the evacuation would likely be quite popular: Russia is doing right by its own people by pulling them out of harm’s way. The patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian volunteer movement would swing into action to assist the Emergencies Ministry in helping move and resettle the evacuees.
...
The negative optics of surrendering territory can be countered by not surrendering any territory. As a guarantor of the Minsk Agreements, Russia must refuse to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government until it fulfills the terms of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has recently repudiated altogether. It is important to note that the Russian military can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with ...

The Donbas authorities published a map with the presumed attack directions of Ukrainian forces should these try to regain control of the region.


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The whole frontline can be covered by Russian artillery (vid) without any Russian setting a foot onto Ukrainian grounds.

The Ukrainian Nazis are prepared and eager to fight:

Alexander Marquardt @MarquardtA - 12:44 UTC · Feb 19, 2022

In Mariupol, praying for peace and readying for a fight. "Everyone is ready to tear Russians up with their own hands," a Right Sector fighter tells me. A military chaplain says "we prepare for the worst and hope for the best."

On Thursday Russia has delivered its response to the U.S. security proposals for East Europe. The U.S. proposal was a response to Russian demands for new security treaties which are needed to prevent a further NATO expansion towards the east. The document rejects the U.S. response as it did not cover the main demands it had made and adds more points that will have to be negotiated.

Russia's argument gets support from a newly recovered document (report in German) from the British national archive. It is a protocol of a meeting of the political directors of the foreign ministries of the USA, Britain, France and Germany on March 6 1991. It again proves, like many other documents from that time, that Russia was definitely promised that NATO would never expand towards the east.


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The Russian strategy of showing strength while negotiating is so far successful. It has put the Ukraine issue back on the front pages, it showed that the U.S. and NATO are unwilling to fight for the Ukraine and it has demonstrated disunity within NATO. The U.S. made some concession by offering negotiations over minor issues which Russia had previously requested.

Meanwhile more satellite pictures of the alleged 'Russian invasion forces' were published by the BBC. Professor Paul Robinson, who is a former military intelligence officer, debunked them.

The whole U.S. campaign of a 'Russian invasion' is disinformation designed to give cover for the upcoming attack of Ukraine on its rebellious Donbas region.

Russia just made another proposal to prevent that:

The situation in two self-proclaimed pro-Russian republics in Ukraine's Donbass region is on a knife-edge after rebel leaders declared a full mobilisation of their forces and asked civilians to evacuate to Russia following shelling which Ukraine and the separatist rebels blame on each other.

In an interview conducted before that evacuation began, Stanislav Zas, secretary general of the Moscow-based Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), said the body could despatch peacekeepers to Donbass if there was an international consensus for such a deployment.

"Hypothetically you can imagine it (such a deployment) if there were goodwill from Ukraine - it is after all their territory - if there was a U.N. Security Council mandate, and if it was needed and such a decision was supported by all our governments," Zas, a Belarusian lieutenant-general, told Reuters in what aides said was his first Western media interview.

CSTO peacekeepers on the line could be a good solution to separate the Ukrainian army and the Donbas rebels. But the U.S. will only agree to that after the Ukrainian attack decisively fails and with high casualties.

That may soon be the case.

Posted by b on February 19, 2022 at 15:37 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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For how long will his circus continue?? Isn't it too obvious that the Russians are winning without having to do any heavy lifting at all?

Posted by: Jay | Feb 19 2022 15:42 utc | 1


For your reference.

NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES ON SECURITY GUARANTEES FEB 17, 08:00
Russia's reaction to the US response on security guarantees. Full text

On February 17, 2022, US Ambassador John Sullivan, invited to the Russian Foreign Ministry, was given the following reaction to the previously received American response on the Russian draft treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on security guarantees.

TASS publishes the full text of the statement.


https://tass.ru/politika/13744013

Posted by: daffyDuct | Feb 19 2022 15:52 utc | 2

Some Ukronazi idiots have lobbed artillery shells into Russia proper:

https://sputniknews.com/20220219/fsb-border-service-in-russias-rostov-confirms-two-shells-landed-on-russian-territory-1093180939.html

Posted by: Gareth | Feb 19 2022 16:02 utc | 3

Just watched Zelensky speech at Munich. Lots of ambiguity. Also an interview afterwards with Amanpour.

Looking for (English) transcripts.

Amanpour (paraphrasing): Do you think US intelligence and pronouncements have been effective in forestalling Russian intentions?

Zelensky (paraphrasing): We get intelligence from many countries. ... We trust our own intelligence the most. .. This is destroying our country in terms of getting loans, business, etc...

Posted by: daffyDuct | Feb 19 2022 16:02 utc | 4

I looked up Russias trade balance. It’s been positive for the last 20 years. The USnato economic war doesn’t seem to have much effect.

At present it’s excellent. Russia could stop all gas exports and still be on par with the peaks of the last two decades.

Better hope for warm weather, continental Europe….

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 19 2022 16:04 utc | 5

An attempt to hamper the evacuations?
"Don't leave your homes!"
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/799713.html

Posted by: njet | Feb 19 2022 16:08 utc | 6

Were we to wake up one day and find that Russian tanks were rolling towards Kiev without any kind of excuse, it would amount to a complete abandonment of 15 years of argumentation as well as a negation of the entire legal/moral position built up by the Russian Federation in that period, a position reinforced just this month in the Putin/Xi statement.
There you have yet another reason why the US wants to force the Russians to 'invade'. They want them off the legal/moral high ground they now enjoy.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 19 2022 16:09 utc | 7

Thanks for the reporting b.

It seems as if Russia is staying one step ahead of empire planning with the evacuation.

Will empire speed up the attack to maximize casualties?

Thanks again to b for repeating the Russian position of not responding to aggression with aggression. Many people do not understand that non-aggression is the high road that is proof that our species can evolve beyond barbarism of God of Mammon empire.

We need that proof to show that we can move society beyond the Western cult of patriarchy and monotheism that it has been in since Sumerian times.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 19 2022 16:10 utc | 8

Biden reinforced his accusation of Putin's decision to invade - in case there was any doubt - a little later in that press conference, and said he knew that from intelligence sources.
See at the very start and at 1:30: https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1494799105255686145

Posted by: Brendan | Feb 19 2022 16:12 utc | 9

So if Russia removes russian nationals - gives them that option.
Then Russia has no reason to engage in conflict beyond supporting separatists as allies. Except there is the issue of NATO supplying weapons to Ukraine - as indirect threat to Russia.
Is there not risk of genocide (real or faked) in separatist regions?

Posted by: jared | Feb 19 2022 16:22 utc | 10

The best thing so far to come from this renewal of hostilities is the Putin /Lukashenko declaration - the rest of the world is listening - that the Empire 'doesn't need a reason to impose sanctions'.

Any sovereign entity that competes with the empire, that will not serve it submissive, will be destroyed.

We are watching the labor pains of the birth of multi-polarity

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 19 2022 16:25 utc | 11

Paul Robinson is correct. It would be funny for Putin and Xi to do the Eddie Murphy bit from '48 Hours'. "There's a new Sheriff in town." Neocon heads would explode.

Posted by: par4 | Feb 19 2022 16:26 utc | 12

Russia knows that the end goal is to drive a wedge or Iron Curtain 2.0 between Europe and Russia to keep Europe fully submissive under US control.

That is why the US is desperate for a Russian “invasion”. By carrying out an evacuation it 1) secures the civilians, 2) shows it has no intention of invading Ukraine and 3) prepares the ground for war. Should the Ukies invade there will be no civilians in the way and Russia will be able to take gloves off in a way it couldn’t before.

Russia is playing the long game here. It doesn’t want to gain LDNR and lose Europe. If push comes to shove they will cut ties if that is what it takes to ensure their security. However, in such an eventuality Europe will be the big loser not Russia.

I want to stress again, this video discusses this point explicitly, and I write about it for a while now: Russia CAN afford to "lose" Europe. Europe CAN NOT lose Russian energy and survive. Think about this strategic truism defining the algorithm of events. It is called strategic flexibility which neither US nor Europe have. Per sanctions: Russia will be just fine. Those will be introduced against Russia regardless.

Latest video from Smoothiex12

Posted by: Down South | Feb 19 2022 16:29 utc | 13

I suppose it might be expected the Ukraine should also evacuate civilians to protect them from harm, but they will not do so I think.

Posted by: jared | Feb 19 2022 16:31 utc | 14

Thanks all, for the reason, and info.

Here, in the U$A, the propganda is non-stop. IMO, all Russia has to do is "sit tight", and wait to see the empire's shrill pro-war cries to dissipate. And they will, but that may take time for the morons here to notice that "crying wolf" to create a confrontation, is all that's happening.

I still believe that this whole affair is to halt the implementation of NS2, which would cost the U$A Trillions in the coming yrs. by loosing LNG sales.

"profits uber alles, don't ya' know?

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 19 2022 16:38 utc | 15

Here's a Song Dedication to all LNR+DNR Citizen-Soldiers and Militia Preserving the Survival and Security of Residents:

https://tinyurl.com/Rise-by-Origa-with-RusEngTexts

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 19 2022 16:40 utc | 16

thanks b.... your quote which i agree strongly with -

"The whole U.S. campaign of a 'Russian invasion' is disinformation designed to give cover for the upcoming attack of Ukraine on its rebellious Donbas region."

i hope russia can continue to play its hand well... at least there is one honourable character on the stage..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2022 16:47 utc | 17

# 15
Yes. Evacuation is such an ingenious move, this is the disarmament of the US propaganda. They did not have it on the screen, because by their part they would never evacuate.
Their propaganda is nothing but the reflection of their own vile calculations.

Posted by: njet | Feb 19 2022 16:50 utc | 18

sorry, #13

Posted by: njet | Feb 19 2022 16:50 utc | 19

Seriously that Orlov prediction is no prediction...civilians are always evacuated from conflict zone. B you are too far ahead of your game and its strange you quote that silly prediction!

Posted by: TheOne | Feb 19 2022 16:50 utc | 20

Almost literally chess with a pigeon - I have heard it said that Obomber is calling shots.

Posted by: jared | Feb 19 2022 16:51 utc | 21

@10 "Is there not risk of genocide (real or faked) in separatist regions?"

Go easy on the word "genocide". Massacres of civilians? Yes, surely, insofar as the Nazis of Azov do not consider Russian speakers as human beings, as we saw in Odessa. Rapes? Yes, certainly, they will repeat the Zionist methods of 1948 when they killed and raped 10 thousands to scare 1 million.

Evacuating civilians is tactically a fine idea but in my opinion a strategic mistake: once they have left and their possessions destroyed or seized, as in Palestine, they will have difficulty returning. Tailor-made laws can then be enacted to seize the property of the so-called "absentees". We've seen that before.

But "genocide"? There are still Russian speakers in the "Kiev" part of Ukraine who would be radicalized if it happen. Moreover, it is not in the interest of Zelensky... if he is still in control of anything: we saw it well at the UNO where his ambassador said the opposite of his president. And the border incidents of the ukronazis are certainly not to his taste, either. So, in the end, I would not gamble my granddaughter's virginity and her life on the good behavior of the Azov brigands and yes, I would evacuate my family if they were in the Donbas.

Posted by: John V. Doe | Feb 19 2022 17:04 utc | 22

@Down South | Feb 19 2022 16:29 utc | 13

>>Russia is playing the long game here.
>>It doesn’t want to gain LDNR and lose Europe.
There is another side to this. Russia aspires to play a role in Europe's security architecture going forward. Right now there is the practical matter of providing security to Russian passport holders in LDNR. Take your time if you have to, go the extra mile for peace, yada yada. But at the end of the day you have to get the job done.

All this yapping about "Russian aggression" is a meme, and Russia is taking it far too seriously. The West's real perceptions were formed during decades of post-Soviet history, when Russia just didn't have the strength--the "unipolar moment". That's the paradigm you'd need to shatter. Can the Bear take care of business?

----------------------------------
@jared | Feb 19 2022 16:31 utc | 14

>>I suppose it might be expected the Ukraine should also evacuate
>>civilians to protect them from harm, but they will not do so I
>>think.

Those civilians better evacuate themselves then. Seems that this time, Russia is putting its hardware in place for real. Odds are it's on now, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 17:11 utc | 23

" I have heard it said that Obomber is calling shots." jared@21
Or to put it more precisely: "The CIA is telling Obama, one of its most reliable agents, what to tell Biden to do."

Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2022 17:12 utc | 24

Bellum Acta is reporting live firefights between Ukrainian forces and separatists in Donetsk airport sector.

Posted by: WJ | Feb 19 2022 17:19 utc | 25

@10 "Is there not risk of genocide (real or faked) in separatist regions?"

Yes I noted too that Moscow suddenly started that BS. Is the Kremlin really that ham-fisted, that they're trying these crude tactics on Germany? Sure many Azov types wouldn't mind a nice massacre, which they've often salivated about openly; but the current evacuation means they won't get it no matter what.

When you should try to draw attention to the very real LDNR shelling (confirmed by OSCE) and possible upcoming assault, the last thing you should do is shoot your credibility with weepy fairy tales. Russia's whole problem is that the West doesn't listen; this really isn't going to help.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 17:25 utc | 26

Biden is clearly aiming to impose sanctions no matter what Russia does, including ordering the cancelling of NS2. These sanctions would insure suicide for the EU economy, which given the global inter-related nature of markets would inevitably blowback against the US economy, right in time for the midterms. I don't get it.

Meanwhile, Russia is prepared for more sanctionsand gas/oil going to Europe has a ready customer in China, so they could basically care less. Also note Russian countermoves already underway in beefing up their base in Syria and in open talks with Venezuela for military support there.

Posted by: Trisha | Feb 19 2022 17:29 utc | 27

This twitter may be worthwhile

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary

They seem to favor actual facts in the region, and seem to reflect events pretty quickly...sappers de-fuzed a 200kg IED on the road out, for example.

Posted by: Walter | Feb 19 2022 17:34 utc | 28

@ John V. Doe | Feb 19 2022 17:04 utc | 22

My thought was the converse, there is risk that the separatists would massacre the Ukraians. The Ukraian loyalists should be evacuated but will not be as they will be useful in this regard. This would require peace keeping force, which could get complicated. Alternately Russia would serve as peace keeper is more likely.

Posted by: jared | Feb 19 2022 17:41 utc | 29

That means the Americans are about to cause a false flag attack in Kiev and blame it on Russia. I just wonder what kind of war crime they will commit now.

Posted by: Sumguy | Feb 19 2022 17:52 utc | 30

@Trisha | Feb 19 2022 17:29 utc | 27

>>These sanctions would insure suicide for the EU economy,
>>which given the global inter-related nature of markets would
>>inevitably blowback against the US economy
Well the idea is that Europe staves off suicide by buying energy and manufactured goods from Uncle Sam--a captive market. This is the game which for decades, Europe has eagerly helped said Uncle play against the darkies, so only serves them right. I'm not an economist, I don't know if the numbers add up; if they do, I'd bet it's a medium-term fix at best. And of course, these are only from the US perspective; the Euros can eat grass for all Washington cares.

>>Russia is prepared for more sanctions and gas/oil going to Europe
>>has a ready customer in China, so they could basically care less.
I see tough talk like that all the time, and it seems to have some substance in that Russia can survive all sanctions. But come on, if Russia weren't twisting itself into a hundred knots over the "optics", nobody'd dare to lay a finger on LDNR. The media blitz is a huge factor in Moscow's calculations--they do care what their enemies think.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 17:55 utc | 31

If Ukie forces enter territory of the republics it completely changes the political calculus

Retreating to allow this is an option. . In other words, there is likely a trap here for the ukies, a trap that lets the separatists/Russia decimate them.

Posted by: Alaric | Feb 19 2022 17:57 utc | 32

So now the USA publishes satellite photos at the drop of a hat. When the photos allegedly showing the Russian backed Separatists, with their Buk Missile launcher, shooting down MH17 they could not do so because it would give away secret information about US satellite capabilities

Posted by: Ike | Feb 19 2022 18:07 utc | 33

History of the U$A's "false flag ops."

http://911review.com/articles/anon/false_flag_perations.html

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 19 2022 18:09 utc | 34

I think that Russia must demolish the Ukronazi forces soon after they cross the Donetsk Line of Contact. This will set a precedent for demolishing U.S. fast depressed trajectory nuke missiles that might be stationed on their border with the Ukraine. It's basic strategy.

Posted by: blues | Feb 19 2022 18:13 utc | 35

@jared | Feb 19 2022 17:41 utc | 29

>>there is risk that the separatists would massacre the Ukraians

Just to clarify: do you mean combatants, or Ukie civilians unlucky enough to be on hand nearby? I don't see why LDNR militia would have a beef with the latter, at least not to that extent. As for the former, would that fall under the definition of "massacre"? I'm sure the Russians have planned what to do with surrendering Ukies, and wouldn't be shocked if Azov was singled out for special treatment.

Sad truth is if this escalates further probably plenty civilians will die as it is, just on behalf of the kind of firepower no being put in place.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 18:13 utc | 36

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 17:11 utc | 23
Who better than the Germans to know a lot about genocide. I remind you that in the territory of Donbass occupied by the Kiev regime, for eight years, a huge number of supporters of the rebel republics who did not have time to evacuate before the arrival of the Ukrovermacht went missing. Either they are dead and buried somewhere in the forest plantations, or they are in underground prisons. (As you understand, Ukraine is not interested in the investigation). For example, at the airport of Mariupol there is an underground SBU prison, the so-called "library" in which persons suspected of having ties with the republics are held without trial (but in fact everyone who did not like the SBU). Is mass murder and rape of a certain ethnic group not enough for you? There was no genocide in Srebrenica then. Or that if it's against the Russians, then it's not considered genocide?

Posted by: Red star | Feb 19 2022 18:17 utc | 37

Addition. My comment was intended for John V. Doe

Posted by: Red star | Feb 19 2022 18:21 utc | 38

@Red star | Feb 19 2022 18:17 utc | 37

No need to convince me what the Maidan junta is. I know about the Odessa Massacre, unpunished till today. There have been formal UN reports about Banderistan being a systematic torturer, which everybody just yawned about. Hey the US boasted about their torture, and we let that slide as well. My point was only that what happens in LDNR now is not genocide, and I stand by it.

Srebrenica touches a nerve. I'm on record that were I ever to return to Holland, I'd do a crowdfunding campaign for a Karremans statue, because he epitomizes the Dutch character far better than De Ruyter or those painter dudes. Then again, I have to consider that what I read in Dutch media at the time may have almost all been wrong.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 18:34 utc | 39

"This seems to support claims that the attack was a false flag created by the Ukrainian side."

So what would the motive for a Ukrainian false flag be at this juncture?

Zelensky has been trying to downplay the likelihood of military confrontation.

Do the extreme Ukrainian nationalists have a motive to stir things up right now after the US and NATO have made it clear they won't be riding to the rescue?

I have to question the judgment that this is a Ukrainian false flag without some indication that someone on the Ukrainian side has a motive to employ the tactic.

The Russians are the ones who benefit from a ratcheting up of tension since, again, they know NATO won't come in at this point and they are trying to extract concessions OR provide a pretext for military action.

Cui bono?

Posted by: Oscar Peterson | Feb 19 2022 18:34 utc | 40

Telling fact:
Donetsk and Luhansk evacuate civilians.

We’re there any evacuations from the Ukranazi side of the line?

I haven’t read of any news on that.

So, who exactly is expecting to be invaded?

Posted by: Cadence calls | Feb 19 2022 18:35 utc | 41

@Oscar Peterson | Feb 19 2022 18:34 utc | 40

>>So what would the motive for a Ukrainian false flag be at this juncture?
Anything, anything, that can be sold on CNN as "Russian aggression". Doesn't have to make sense, as long as it's emotional.

>>Cui bono?
Not the Ukies themselves if they'd think it through. Which they won't.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 18:39 utc | 42

Il bidet sta traboccando, non ne indovina una, ha dato più numeri lui di un giocatore di bingo.
PS le informazioni che riceviamo non permettono a noi poveri mortali di predire cosa succederà domani.

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Feb 19 2022 18:43 utc | 43

Conoscere non concedere

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Feb 19 2022 18:44 utc | 44

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 18:34 utc | 39

My comment was not intended for you, but for the person above. I made a mistake in copying. Nevertheless, I ask you, what else is missing for you to recognize this outrage as genocide? Do you need more victims? Or is it because of the nationality of the victims?

Posted by: RedStar | Feb 19 2022 18:49 utc | 45

An alternative perspective on what may happen:

The following observations are based on the open intelligence analysis of Rob Lee and Michael Kofman.

From their perspective what is about to happen in Ukraine will, in fact,
be a complete abandonment of 15 years of Russian argumentation about following International law.


It will most likely be a maximalist military campaign because more limited military campaigns have not gotten Russia what it wanted diplomatically from Ukraine or NATO.


What has not been discussed much at this point is the possibility that the Russians are now also prepared through their military posture to potentially implement regime change in Ukraine.

Also not much discussed at this point are the real dangers and high risk 3 to 6 months down the road (from NATO) once the Russians have occupied a significant portion of Ukraine and potentially installed a new pro-Russian regime. This is where a Ukrainian conflict could go regional. Russia has been preparing for how to handle this NATO threat but we may find ourselves facing this biggest geo-political crisis since World War II.

Posted by: Gulag | Feb 19 2022 18:50 utc | 46

"The whole U.S. campaign of a 'Russian invasion' is disinformation designed to give cover for the upcoming attack of Ukraine on its rebellious Donbas region."

The idea is to unite Europe against Russia to prevent or at least delay the operation of Nordstream 2, which increases the role of Russia in Europe to the detriment of US imperialism. It is conceivable that it could at least partially succeed.

Posted by: Mathew | Feb 19 2022 18:51 utc | 47

I did my best to transate the 2022-02-18 OSCE/SMM report onto a map. It shows only reports of explosions, and ignores where there were few around and observation location.

Its crude work, but interestingly roughly correlates with the predicted attack map above.

It can be obtained here.

https://twitter.com/yesxorno/status/1495091325217263616

Posted by: YesXorNo | Feb 19 2022 18:54 utc | 48

I think false flag is wrong term for this type of operation. It is more like a symbiosis of yellow journalism and small unit warfare in order to goad one side into striking. In this case I think the flag is real and ongoing not false. Not sure what that case would be called.

All this appears to me to be an act of desperation by the Anglo Americans who see the sun setting on their empire and desperately need to control the resources of Russia to keep their game going for another 100 years.

Failure is inevitable and guaranteed

Posted by: circumspect | Feb 19 2022 18:57 utc | 49

Refusing Russia invade Ukraine shows that Putin is an utter sadist. Insisting Russia will invade Ukraine shows that Biden is an utter masochist.

Which of course brings on the old joke:

Masochist: "BEAT ME, BEAT ME"
Sadist: "no..."

Posted by: Simplicius | Feb 19 2022 18:59 utc | 50

Apparently Volodymyr Zelenskyy is flying to Munich soon.... If I was him I would go by train.

Posted by: Ike | Feb 19 2022 19:02 utc | 51

@circumspect, #49:

I agree with your characterization of the Empire/NATO plot: Yellow Journalism with provocative small confrontations. Goal is to provoke the other side into initiating a larger counterattack. I'd call this War Baiting.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 19 2022 19:05 utc | 52

The disgusting aspect of the Empire's war baiting shenanigan is that it is organized, played out, and pushed by the highest levels of their leadership. It totally exposes their satanic nature of that leadership clique: start a war to benefit themselves (at little cost to their own human sacrifices) and let them Slavic Ukies go to Hell!!!

And they've been doing this in Central Europe, in the Middle East, in Africa, and East, Southeast, and South Asia.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 19 2022 19:13 utc | 53

Posted by: Ike | Feb 19 2022 19:02 utc | 51


Zelensky has already had his gig @MSC

Posted by: v | Feb 19 2022 19:14 utc | 54

Posted by: Ike | Feb 19 2022 19:02 utc | 51

He's been there for a while saying all kind of idiocies. It would be interesting if a native Ukrainian speaker confirms my suspicion that Zelensky as many new ukro nationalists do not speak the language properly, it is known that he is a Russian speaker just like Poroshenko and many more, there is a funny old clip of a council of ministers during which the former interior minister Avakov throws a water bottle to Saakashvily while both of them are heavily insulting each other in Russian. He seems to falter in his train of thought compensating it with a lot of gestures, after all he is an actor. A truly horror show the Munich "akelarre" which is the name of a famous Goya black painting, a basque word that means a witches gathering. The akelarre thing came to my mind after watching Amampour.

https://www.franciscogoya.com/images/paintings/aquelarre.jpg

Posted by: Paco | Feb 19 2022 19:19 utc | 55

"It will most likely be a maximalist military campaign because more limited military campaigns have not gotten Russia what it wanted diplomatically from Ukraine or NATO."

Posted by: Gulag | Feb 19 2022 18:50 utc | 46

That's naive. You don't blast out a big war because you're frustrated, only if you're an idiot, which Putin is not. I've just heard a former British ambassador say on the radio that Putin's style is not to launch big uncontrollable initiatives, but small initiatives where the result can be predicted. If someone as conservative as a British former ambassador can say that, you can bet it's a reasonable professional assessment, even if he is retired and no longer under control.

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 19 2022 19:20 utc | 56

@RedStar | Feb 19 2022 18:49 utc | 45

>>what else is missing for you to recognize this outrage as genocide
How about slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Donbass civilians, as might indeed have conceivably happened if Azov had gotten some quality time alone with them? So yes, more victims; I know that sounds brutal, but there is a reason we have a word separate from "massacre"; and nowadays, "outrage" could just be getting someone's pronouns wrong--all different. Bottom line there is a UN Convention defining the term. And I don't like the pompous "recognize", as if I have some kind of authority here. That is for international judges, which opportunistic pols on all sides forget too often.

Still your insistence makes me think. The elimination of words as well as people, renamings, rewriting of history, religious-reform-at-gunpoint, all are the hallmarks of "ethnic cleansing". If the Ukies go too far in their enthusiasm, some day a Russian judge may have some things to day about that.

>>Or is it because of the nationality of the victims?
That is in your mind, not in my words; I'd rather not be drawn into it.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 19:25 utc | 57

@ Gulag | Feb 19 2022 18:50 utc | 46... at least you are consistent in handing moa the western msm on a regular basis... why bother gulag? are you paid to do this?

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2022 19:32 utc | 58

Biden on Invasion Day Eve, Feb. 17th "Russia says they are moving troops back, but we have no way of knowing if that is true". (Because 17 spy agencies, satellites that can read license plates and a trillion dollar military are unable to see troop movements).
Biden after Invasion Day (unobserved) "Putin has made the decision to invade Kiev. Our crack teams of highly trained professional spies have said so".
This is all reported straight-faced by the mockingbird media and believed by a large chunk of the western public.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Feb 19 2022 19:37 utc | 59

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 19:25 utc | 57
Everything is clear. Thank you for answering my questions.

Posted by: RedStar | Feb 19 2022 19:41 utc | 60

OV @ 53; Agreed!!

wagelaborer @ 59 ended with;"This is all reported straight-faced by the mockingbird media and believed by a large chunk of the western public."

Absolutely, good post...

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 19 2022 19:55 utc | 61

Ike | Feb 19 2022 19:02 utc | 51

This is different version of what Zelensky said at the MSC. I don't usually comment on appearances, but he is obviously taking something that gives those the enlarged glands around the throat.

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1495068219878608910

As well as that I think he has lost it mentally, which is why the US didn't want him to be seen in public.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 19 2022 19:56 utc | 62

Ma Laoshi @57: "...nowadays, "outrage" could just be getting someone's pronouns wrong..."

Nope, getting someone's pronouns wrong is definitely genocide these days, at least in the West. Sending Muslim rednecks to free charm school in Xinjiang is also genocide. People who are presumably educated, particularly in academia and mass media, assert as much with an entirely straight face.

Putin is not misusing the word "genocide". He's merely using the term as westerners would understand it.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 19 2022 19:57 utc | 63

@ 59; Yes, we have satellites that, (we're told) can read a license plate from 100 miles up, but Russian troop movements are a mystery. (just like Saddam's WMD's I guess)

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 19 2022 20:01 utc | 64


re Trisha at #27

"...Also note Russian countermoves already underway in beefing up their base in Syria and in open talks with Venezuela for military support there...."

yes I consider those a very important part of their 'military technical' response to the West being quite deaf to their points regarding a new security architecture in the West -

especially important are it to date modest moves in Syria, which are essential for e Russian projection of 'force and influence' in the Mediterranean and the middle East in general


Posted by: michaelj72 | Feb 19 2022 20:16 utc | 65

Oscar Peterson@40

The political situation is peculiar: the people running the place represent a tiny percentage of the population. Even the, thoroughly corrupted election results confirm this. The Right Sector and other Bandera forces get very few votes.
As I recall it, while Zelensky owed his victory to his expressed preference for making peace with Russia, Poroshenko, whose policies Zelensky is now being forced to follow, only won a majority in the Galician west.
There are two unusual aspects to this problem- the first is that the real power in the country is outside it, the US, the IMF, the EU and the powerful emigrant lobbies in places like Canada who tell NATO governments what to do. The second, related problem is that all the force in the country, the cops, the army, the militias and violent criminal groups are controlled by the tiny sliver of fascists- massively subsidised from abroad- who regard only a minority of the population as worthy of citizenship, perhaps even life. They want to kill all Russians (at least a third of the population) today. Already they have begun to kill communists and dissidents. These people don't just dress like Nazis, talk like Nazis and worship Nazi leaders- they act like Nazis too.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2022 20:41 utc | 66

Ze makes an interesting point
https://www.rt.com/russia/549994-ukraine-threatens-renounce-memorandum/
says Ukraine was given assurances to guaranty security
Now they would be justified in resuming nuclear capability.
Really treaties are b/s - they are only binding to the extent that they can be enforced which may require war.
Putin was trying to calm the situation but US and moderate rebels wont allow it.

Posted by: jared | Feb 19 2022 20:54 utc | 67

re: long range artillery assaults on Ukrainian troop concentrations [not invasion]

Artillery as it has been explained: “pounding the shit out of things the infantry decides they don’t want to fight.” And so artillery is "the King of Battle" because the infantry is known as the Queen of Battle, and the artillery’s role is “to put the balls where the Queen wants them." . .or as Frederick the Great said: Artillery lends dignity to what otherwise would be a vulgar brawl. . . . And it's deadly.
from Russia Beyond...

The ‘Koalitsiya-SV’ (in addition to other systems) is the first self-propelled artillery system that uses AI to lock on to a target at distances of up to 70 km (43.5 miles).
In late May 2020, the Russian Armed Forces received its first shipment of upgraded Russian artillery systems - the ‘Koalitsiya-SV’. These metal monsters were developed with the express purpose of destroying large, heavily armored enemy weapons far beyond the front line. A system of this sort can fire 10 152-mm rounds at a target 70 km (43.5 miles) away, turning it into a heap of metal - including tanks, artillery and mortar and even anti-aircraft systems!
According to the commander of Russia’s missile and artillery forces, Lieutenant-General Mikhail Matveyevsky, the new artillery system is a solid step toward the robotization of military equipment, with today’s key objective revolving around greatly boosting long-distance precision.
“The deviation radius of the Koalitsiya is about one-two meters,” professor Vadim Kozyulin of the Russian Academy of Military Science says. “Operating at a 70 km range, the weapon resembles a sniper rifle. Just as precise and deadly.”
“The Koalitsiya has some serious ammunition. Aside from the high-explosive shrapnel shells it boasts cluster - even armor-piercing - shells, with laser-input coordinates during travel. The latter are called the ‘Krasnopol’, and were developed specifically for the Koalitsiya,” Kozyulin adds. And the gun crews are protecred by armor.
The Koalitsiya can use a variety of satellite tracking systems to receive coordinates, including GLONASS and GPS, as well as store up to 10 sets of coordinates in memory, firing on them automatically. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2022 20:55 utc | 68

@WJ | Feb 19 2022 17:19 utc | 25

Do you have a link for Bellum Acta? My searches turn up some of their old posts but nothing on the current situation on the Line of Contact (LOC).

@Walter | Feb 19 2022 17:34 utc | 28

Thank you for the ASBMilitary twitter link.

@Cadence calls | Feb 19 2022 18:35 utc | 41

"any evacuations from the Ukranazi side of the line?"

No, both for the reason you give and that it makes the population there human shields against any counter-bombardment from the Republics or Russia.

The current LOC is not the border; approximately 2/3 of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces are occupied by the Kiev junta. As with Korea I'm sure families have been divided here.

@Oriental Voice | Feb 19 2022 19:05 utc | 52

"I'd call this War Baiting."

That is an excellent phrase for this, thank you.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 21:02 utc | 69

@Ma Laoshi | Feb 19 2022 18:13 utc | 36

"I'm sure the Russians have planned what to do with surrendering Ukies, and wouldn't be shocked if Azov was singled out for special treatment."

Wonder if it'll start with Nazi POWs being marched through Donetsk as back in 2014, and as in Moscow in 1944. Perhaps trials broadcast globally afterward.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 21:04 utc | 70

Dimitri Orlof's theory about evacuation is interesting.

Whilst the various motives of the US Government (and its Western allies) for creating a state of panic are obvious to me, I find it harder to understand why the Russians have, to an extent, played along; one moment deriding Western hysteria, but then the next moment issuing ultimatums regarding changes to NATO policy which would surely be rejected and thus contributing to the sense of impending doom.

In January 2020, in his Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, Putin said

"Each step we take and each new law or government programme we adopt must be scrutinised from the viewpoint of our top national priority – the preservation and increase of Russia’s population.”

Indeed, Russia has a demographic crisis. This is their real crisis. It isn't the 'will they, won't they' dance between Ukraine and NATO.

Lativa and Estonia have been NATO members for nearly 20 years. From the perspective of people in Moscow, the difference in striking distance between NATO rockets stationed in Latvia as opposed to rockets stationed in Ukraine is negligible.

In addition to the fear of war, the Russians have doubled down on an incentive for those Russian speakers in Ukraine to cross the border:

Vladimir Putin swiftly dispatched a top official to the border region and announced that those arriving would be given a payment of 10,000 roubles.

I am reminded of Angela Merkel's embrace of refugees during the war in Syria..

Immigrants are a gift: Germany learns from solution for birth rate crisis


Something to think about.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Feb 19 2022 21:10 utc | 71

Vintage Red @70


Here is the telegram link to the bellum acta feed.

https://t.me/BellumActaNews

Posted by: Wj | Feb 19 2022 21:16 utc | 72

Oscar Peterson @ 40, Bevin @ 66:

With respect to what Bevin says @ 66 about diaspora groups telling NATO what to do, and Nazi battalions being funded from abroad, the news that the Canadian govt is freezing bank accounts of people who aided the truckers convoy in Ottawa takes on a chilling aspect.

The deputy prime minister is also the current Finance Minister. In that role, Chrystia Freeland (granddaughter of Myhailo Chomiak, former Nazi collaborator and propagandist) may have considerable influence over Canadian financial and bank policies and where and in what areas banks and government agencies should invest monies - including perhaps monies from frozen accounts.

The money need not actually be stolen on paper - it only has to be invested in hidden accounts, the income from those accounts collected and sent out to favoured recipients, and the principal just held away from its rightful owners.

Back in the days when people used cheques, and banks needed two days to clear cheque payments, the two-day period was often the time when the money was temporarily invested in short-term cash management funds to earn quick interest for the bank paying the cheque to the bank of the nominated recipient of the cheque.

The actions of Canada from now on bear as much scrutiny as those of the US and UK governments.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2022 21:17 utc | 73

Willy Wimmer confirms West promised not to expand NATO.

https://www.rt.com/russia/549961-west-nato-expand-willy-wimmer/

He accuses US of constantly aggravating Russia.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2022 21:31 utc | 74

I still believe that this whole affair is to halt the implementation of NS2, which would cost the U$A Trillions in the coming yrs. by loosing LNG sales.

"profits uber alles, don't ya' know?

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 19 2022 16:38

Wasn't LNG the darling of Wall Street towards the end of Bush's second term? I would imagine if that was the case those investments have ripened on the vine by now.

Posted by: Wook | Feb 19 2022 21:34 utc | 75

The evacuation from Donbass is a brilliant strategic move. Now if UkroNazi forces enter the area it will retroactively demonstrate ethnic cleansing.
Plus, without civilians to worry about, the highly motivated and better-led Donbass forces will have a free hand to massacre the UkroNazi invaders. Kill enough of them and all of eastern and southern Ukraine might be emboldened to rebel against the junta.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 19 2022 21:35 utc | 76

@Red star | Feb 19 2022 18:17 utc | 37

Back in 2014-2015 Azov, Right Sector and other Nazis posted youtube videos bragging of their killings, burning separatists alive in the woods at night, abducting and raping the women of Mariupol. I remember one or two trolls tried to post them here on MoA. Here is a 2014 account of ethnic cleansing in Slavyansk.

On the potential for large-scale genocide, a thought: the Western media habitually understates the population of the Donbass Republics; just today the BBC states them to have 3.5 million people whereas their own figures are 4.6 million. This may well be laying the info-war groundwork for an anticipated Nazi genocide against ethnic Russians ("Russian claims that up to a million people have been killed are false, those people never existed!").

US history books always give pre-colonization Native American population as only a few hundred thousand to obscure the many millions who were killed by settlers. Hitler's General Plan Ost was inspired, as he himself wrote in *Mein Kampf*, by the US slave plantations and genocide against Native Americans: "The Volga Must Be Our Mississippi".

@bevin | Feb 19 2022 20:41 utc | 66

"They want to kill all Russians (at least a third of the population) today. Already they have begun to kill communists and dissidents. These people don't just dress like Nazis, talk like Nazis and worship Nazi leaders- they act like Nazis too."

Exactly. They are Nazis. Of course they start with communists and other active resistance, we can bet they remember their Kommissar Order very well as they dream of extending the Ukraine all the way to the Volga.

However Putin may have meant the word genocide in his recent statement and however the word is used by many, as far as the Russians of the Eastern Ukraine and perhaps other near-abroad countries with fascist elements are concerned, we have to treat real, Nuremberg-defined genocide as the Nazis' intention.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 21:37 utc | 77

@Wj | Feb 19 2022 21:16 utc | 72

Thank you!

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 21:38 utc | 78

Is the Ukrainian attack plan real or fake?

The photo does not show the original Ukrainian plan, but a recreation based on alleged intelligence. As such it has no more probative value than any "Russian attack plan" drawn up by Julian Röpcke for the German BILD magazine. The West will claim that the map is yet another "false flag" or provocation intended to justify a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Some new data has come to light may help validate the map. American NPR radio is claiming that the order by Denis Pushilin to evacuate DPR civilians was recorded two days before it was broadcast on February 18. There is nothing shocking in this, as any such evacuation would have to be planned in advance and coordinated with Russian authorities.

The two weeks up to February 16th, the recording date, had been exceptionally quiet at the front. A Joint Control and Coordination Commission (JCCC) officer at the front noted that it had in fact been "dangerously quiet". The current escalation only stared at 5 am on February 17, 2022. The evacuation order can thus not be a response to the current round of shelling.

The evacuation is part of a larger plan agreed upon with Russia. The plan also includes Russian preparations for a potential invasion. Detailed knowledge of Ukrainian attack plans could explain the recent moves.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 19 2022 21:43 utc | 79

I've not seen it linked here yet but Colonel Cassad has posted a summary of the Kiev operational plan with the map above, translated by the Saker. I couldn't help but notice among the directives for the southern sector:

"The Aidar battalion, operating in the area of responsibility of the 53rd brigade, has the task of preventing desertion among Ukrainian soldiers."

Aidar is one of the Nazi battalions...

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 21:45 utc | 80

Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2022 21:17 utc | 73

The actions of the Cdn.government should have been under the same scrutiny from much sooner than now.

Posted by: Digital Spartacus | Feb 19 2022 21:47 utc | 81

James @ 58

Thanks for noticing my consistency. I love to question assumptions. Often leads to greater insight as to what is actually happening.

It appears from your perspective that Russia can only be discussed as a victim never as an independent geopolitical actor with its own set of priorities (like legitimately using military force to guarantee its own sphere of influence to help achieve its diplomatic goals)--a position that is far distant (in my opinion) from what the MSM is arguing.

What about your apparent assumption that Russia only believes in international law and will therefore never act on its own legitimate power calculations? Could that sometimes be wishful thinking on your part?

Could it be that both Russian geopolitical power calculations as well as international law beliefs have something to do with how they act in the international arena? Why choose only one of these explanations?

Do deeply held ideological beliefs (yours or mine) have anything to do with potentially distorting the lens through which we view the dynamics of international politics?

Posted by: Gulag | Feb 19 2022 21:51 utc | 82

Ukraine is dreaming about the Croatian scenario in Donbas. No Serbs=no problems, Croatia get rid of them and went into NATO, Washington is happy, case closed. No Russsians in Donbas=no problems, Ukraine take control of its borders, went into NATO, Washington is happy again, case closed. That's why i have problem with this evacuation. Chances are, no one would go back once they came to Russia. The same thing happened in Croatia, the same thing happened with Serbs from Kosovo. No one wants to return anymore. I think Russia is playing the wrong card here. If they were thinking to provoke some sort of emotional reaction in the Western countries, forget about it. Ordinary Joe is the same russophobic entity just like any Western politician. Just look at the attitude against Freedom convoy in Canada. I like to think that Russia knows what they are doing, but this retreat from Donbas doesn't look good, and it smells like betrayal in my book...and even if all of them from Donbas evacuate to Russia, does Russia thinks it will stop further sanctions, provocations, and rabid Russophobia? Certainly not...

Posted by: Dragan | Feb 19 2022 21:55 utc | 83

Seems like the US stopped monitoring the airspace above Ukraine with its spy planes altogether. The last plane on duty left at about 17:00 UTC. No replacement since then, from what I can see.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 19 2022 21:59 utc | 84

Posted by: Dragan | Feb 19 2022 21:55 utc | 82

In 2014, there was also an evacuation. Many have returned.

Posted by: .. | Feb 19 2022 22:00 utc | 85

What Orlov actually said was that the entire Donbass population should be evacuated, presumably by force if necessary, to refugee camps in Russia. This is, naturally, not what is happening, no matter what Orlov now pretends from the safety of St Petersburg.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 19 2022 22:04 utc | 86

If Russia is compelled to launch a major intervention now, everyone will finally admit that it could have done the same in 2014 for infinitely lesser cost, right? The people who have repeatedly called Putin-sceptics like me "trolls" for saying this will finally agree that we were right all along, right?

(Of course they won't, doublethink is as integral to the Putin cult as it is to the worshippers of the Amerikastani Empire.)

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 19 2022 22:07 utc | 87

Jen | Feb 19 2022 21:17 utc | 73... indeed! thanks.. here are some of the world economic forum board members -
Chrystia FREELAND, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance of Canada
Christine LAGARDE, President, European Central Bank (ECB)
Luis MORENO,** President, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC
full list here - World Economic Forum Appoints New Members to Board of Trustees crystia freeland as front for george soros and the wef has some clout in her present position to freeze bank accounts and etc..

@ Gulag | Feb 19 2022 21:51 utc | 81... thanks.. in answer to your last question - of course... i think that is what makes this so very interesting.. individuals who regurgitate western msm talking points immediately arouse my suspicion of their ideological beliefs being the byproduct of propaganda... and yes - it can work both ways... i was observing how it works here with the posts you've made to date.. if you'd like to ask questions about my position, feel free to quote me, otherwise it looks like empty conjecture on your part as to what i actually think, aside from my thinking you are repeating the western msm talking points - which i can read any day of the week in most any news outlet... cheers..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2022 22:13 utc | 88

Posted by: circumspect | Feb 19 2022 18:57 utc | 49

Yes, I was wondering about the terminology here. To me a 'false flag' is one where you organize an attack on yourself but pretend to be the enemy (Sender Gleiwitz, for example). You then follow up, usually very quickly, with the real assault. To many 9/11 was that. This is different from a 'pretext' in which you manipulate an event to become a case for beginning hostilities. To others, 9/11 falls in that category. 'Provocation' is something different again, where you goad an opponent into lashing out and then blame them for starting it.

It has always been fascinating how rarely wars are initiated without justifications in which the primary antagonist claims the right to strike on moral grounds. It is, in other words, rare to see an attack launched simply on the grounds that 'we wanted their shit so we went and took it'. The Vikings come to mind, but even there the moral grounds were provided by an entire religious apparatus valorizing warrior culture. War was justified by a cosmic order and a social identity.

For something here to qualify as a false flag, it would be, for example, Azov goons dressed as LDPR or Russian forces shelling a Ukrainian radio station, vel sim. In a sense, though, the Ukrainians could argue that no pretext is needed since these regions were part of Ukr. sovereign territory. We need to be precise in a way that the MSM are deliberately not.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 19 2022 22:14 utc | 89

Posted by: .. | Feb 19 2022 22:00 utc | 84

It was 8 years ago. People are tired and constant threats of loonie Nazis attack are wearying the strongest of characters. Once in the safe, it looks like much better prospect than went back. I think Russia is doing exactly what Ukraine and its "Western allies" wants: Donbas without Russians. I think it is a wrong move and makes things even worse. Every little retreat the USA sees like its own success and it makes them even hungrier for more. Take a better look at the events in former Yugoslavia, it is a mixture of threats, sanctions, carrots, sticks, just do this and nothing else, and maybe this and this and that, and nothing more, until you are capitulating...

Posted by: Dragan | Feb 19 2022 22:16 utc | 90

William Gruff | Feb 19 2022 19:57 utc | 63

Putin is not misusing the word "genocide". He's merely using the term as westerners would understand it.

He's also using it as the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide* defines it:

Article II

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

a. Killing members of the group;
b. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
c. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its
physical destruction in whole or in part;
d. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
e. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

The Ukraine regime's stated goal is to "cleanse the area of Russian speakers". So we have a group targeted for elimination based on a specific characteristic. Seems to fit the definition.

Remember, Putin trained as a lawyer, so I doubt he'd be using the term loosely, the way Western media throws it around. There's a strict legal definition and I believe that's what he's applying.

* Text taken from the Wayback Machine, since the actual UN site is currently down for maintenance. I can't link directly to the Wayback version of the site.

Posted by: Kukulkan | Feb 19 2022 22:25 utc | 91

@ 86
I don’t know who called you a troll,
as I’m operating under the premise that we know nothing and are just making educated guesses.
That being my assumed MO, don’t expect any back slaps or victory laps.
If you’re right, good on you.
Your calculations were correct.
If your wrong, thanks for playing.

Trolls either come around to a more site centered thinking (myself), or leave.
Sometimes they come back (Circe)

Good luck with all your research. After all, we just want to know more.

Posted by: Cadence calls | Feb 19 2022 22:25 utc | 92

Posted by: .. | Feb 19 2022 22:00 utc | 84

It was 8 years ago. people are tired and threats of loonie Nazis attack is wearying the strongest of characters. Once in the safe, no one wants to return, mark my words. Russia is doing exactly what Ukraine and its "Western allies" wants: Donbas without Russians. Why they are doing this? Million dollar question. But, every little retreat the USA sees like weakness and it makes them hungrier for more and more until you are capitulating...

Posted by: Dragan | Feb 19 2022 22:26 utc | 93

Also regarding air traffic, there's this: Lufthansa has cancelled all its flights from Kiev between February 21 and February 28. So for a whole week.
And something weird on the departures/arrivals display at Boryspil International Airport, Kiev. If you check out the homepage, throughout the day there are flights coming and going in the 'today' ledger. Note that 'today' in Ukraine is Sunday 02/20. That means the 'tomorrow' ledger covers flights on Monday 02/21. If you click on the 'tomorrow' ledger, it's almost completely empty! According to the schedule, there just won't be any flights, either incoming or outgoing, after 2 AM Monday. None at all. A bit weird, isn't it?

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 19 2022 22:28 utc | 94

jared | Feb 19 2022 16:22 utc | 10

So if Russia removes russian nationals - gives them that option.
Then Russia has no reason to engage in conflict beyond supporting separatists as allies. Except there is the issue of NATO supplying weapons to Ukraine - as indirect threat to Russia.
Is there not risk of genocide (real or faked) in separatist regions?


The "Risk of Genocide" I imagine refers to the instruction that Poroshenko is reported to have given the troops he dispatched to put down the rebellion in the Donbas, that after defeating the rebels, they should hang all those who had fought on the rebels' side and then hang all the Russian speakers".

Posted by: foolisholdman | Feb 19 2022 22:28 utc | 95

test

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 22:34 utc | 96

Posted by: Kukulkan | Feb 19 2022 22:25 utc | 89

He's also using it as the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide* defines it...

De-Russification is a form of genocide. If not the physical elimination of people, it has all the hallmarks of cultural genocide; denial of identity, forced assimilation, especially of children, ban on language, denial of history, and destruction of historical monuments.

De-Russification has been the purpose of NATO for the last 30 years. The de-Russification of Eastern Europe is the greatest act of genocide in the 21st century.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 19 2022 22:35 utc | 97

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 19 2022 22:14 utc | 88

I should add too that the idea of a 'just war' was a religious injunction placed on the Roman state to guarantee success in conflicts. The Fetiales were a college of priests who managed the religious-legal side of this. Livy's description of the process in book 1 is a great read.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 19 2022 22:35 utc | 98

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 19 2022 22:28 utc | 92

It looks like under the 'tomorrow' link there's a full schedule. Business as usual. Did you click 'show all'?

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 19 2022 22:44 utc | 99

Sorry but my comment 92 is mostly rubbish I just realized. While it's true Lufthansa has suspended all flights to and from Ukraine for next week, the rest isn't true. The schedule just got updated, now looks like business as usual. Sorry!

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 19 2022 22:47 utc | 100

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