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February 17, 2022
Media Studies – (‘Russian Invasion’ Scam)

Material for media studies:

The Hill @thehill – 9:32 PM · Feb 3, 2022

Reporter: “It’s an action that you say they have taken, but you have shown no evidence to confirm that. […] This is like – crisis actors? Really? This is like Alex Jones territory you’re getting into now.”

Must-watch exchange between @APDiploWriter Matt Lee and @StateDeptSpox.
video

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> The U.S. intelligence briefing included specific reference to next Wednesday, February 16, as a start date for the ground invasion, three officials — based in Washington, London and Ukraine — told POLITICO. <

…

> The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 16 was always overhyped. The time frame to really keep an eye on is what happens shortly after Feb. 20. <

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> After decades of getting schooled in information warfare by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States is trying to beat the master at his own game.
…
Biden administration officials said they had a narrower and more realistic goal: They want to make it more difficult for Mr. Putin to justify an invasion with lies, undercutting his standing on the global stage and building support for a tougher response.

Intelligence agencies, prodded by the White House, have declassified information, which in turn has been briefed to Congress, shared with reporters and discussed by Pentagon and State Department spokesmen.
…
For all the disclosures, the Biden administration has provided no evidence of the disinformation plots they say they have uncovered. <

…

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe – 13:56 UTC · Feb 16, 2022

With all the alarm about a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it's important to keep in mind that the alarm itself, and using the U.S. media to keep the alarm ringing, is part of the Biden admin's strategy to keep pressure on the Kremlin. It IS the strategy.
Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?

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Melinda Haring @melindaharing – 19:25 UTC · Feb 11, 2022

Putin has big weekend plans in Ukraine: 1) he's going to cut power and heat, knock out Ukrainian navy and air force, kill general staff and hit them with cyber attack; 2) then install pro-Russian president and 3) resort to full-scale military invasion if Ukraine doesn't give in

…

Melinda Haring @melindaharing – 13:04 UTC · Feb 14, 2022

Emotions running high and I let them get the better of me. I still expect action this week but Putin may drag this out. We still don't know. Bottom line is that I recognize that I need to be more judicious.

…

Melinda Haring @melindaharing – 12:40 UTC · Feb 15, 2022

We’ve been so focused on Russian troops and tanks that we missed Moscow’s strategy: strangle Ukraine’s economy and sap the resolve of its people.
The West Is Falling for Putin’s Real Play in Ukraine

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> [Halyna] Yanchenko is a Deputy Head in Ukraine’s “Servant of the People” political faction, which has a majority in parliament and was founded by current president Volodymyr Zelensky.
…
“In our opinion, all these crazy things going on in American media and world media — all these appeals to diplomats and business to pack their bags and leave Ukraine immediately — it really harms Ukrainian economy,” she said. “I’m stopping myself from starting using curse words, because all these panics are costing us a lot of money. A lot of money to actually keep, you know, business and services circulating in Ukraine. Because that’s the worst that can happen now.”
…
According to Yanchenko, the risk of Russian invasion is “minimal… it’s not that much.” Whereas the economy cratering thanks in large part to US agitation is observably happening, right now. “So if we are talking about military situation,” she said, “we are talking only about possible risks — it might happen or it might not happen — but if we are talking about economic consequences, the worst thing already happened. And now we have to react to this and do something in order to keep the state alive.”

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> I’m watching it now… the soviet nationwide anthem simply began enjoying on the fucking sq.’s audio system. I am not even kidding. … <
Reuters Live – View of Maidan square in Kyiv

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> After days marked by flickers of hope that the conflict might be resolved peacefully, a senior American official, who refused to be quoted by name, told reporters that far from winding down its deployment, Moscow had added more than 7,000 combatants. Western allies expressed similar doubts about the Russian claims.
…
To some extent, the battle between the West and Moscow over Ukraine has been one of signaling. To keep international pressure on Russia high, the United States has repeatedly declared that an invasion was near, even imminent. Moscow, in turn, has repeatedly accused Washington of exaggerating the threat.
…
Maria V. Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry’s often caustic spokeswoman, said she would appreciate U.S. and British news outlets publishing the schedules for Russia’s “invasions” in the coming year, because “I’d like to plan my vacation.” <

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> West's policies, as I am on record, are not conducted for the sake of development of own nations or of international relations. They are conducted for PR purposes only, as a means to an end of retaining political power for a variety of reasons ranging from desire to have it for the sake of it or for comfortable retirement paid in all kinds of cash and favors in exchange for proper political plays. <

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Each of the above chapters deserves its own write-up. But alas – so many lies, so little time …

Posted by b on February 17, 2022 at 11:09 UTC | Permalink
Comments

now, now, the US is well known for sticking to treaties as “long as the rivers shall run and the grass shall grow”. it didn’t take long to violate those treaties, had something to do with gold being found and “protecting” colonists who stole land.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 18 2022 10:02 utc | 201

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 18 2022 3:09 utc | 171
Great concert Brahms: Hungarian Dances.
But the “Orquesta Joven de la Sinfónica de Galicia”
is actualy in Galicia (Spain) an autonomous community of Spain and historic nationality under Spanish law. Located in the northwest Iberian Peninsula.
not to confuse with
Galicia (Eastern Europe)
was a historical and geographic region spanning what is now southeastern Poland and western Ukraine.

Posted by: Beni | Feb 18 2022 10:10 utc | 202

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 18 2022 9:43 utc | 198
Well, I do not expect Russia to drop its attention on Donbass while it refocuses the World’s and US attention to Syria. I am not sure what, if anything, the landingcrafts dropped off in Syria before heading for the Black Sea, but would hope it was something that might aid the Syrian military in making difficulties for the US in al-tanf or E. Syria.
Yes, it can be proxy attacks on supply lines or proxy shelling of US bases. It can also be direct military technical attacks on those bases by the Syrian army, direct declaration of a no-fly zone over all of Syria (including Turkish occupied territory) augmented/enforced by EW means. It depends on what the Russians intend or mean by “technical” in “military technical”.
It just does not make sense to focus the effort solely on Ukraine as if it were the only issue affecting Russia or anyone else, especially since the US is there illegally, not requested to be there by the Syrian government.
One needs to drive home the point that US criminality and disrespect for international law is a global problem. This putting pressure on the US with respect to its constant violations of international law

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Feb 18 2022 10:29 utc | 203

@Blue Dotterel | Feb 18 2022 10:29 utc | 202

Well, I do not expect Russia to drop its attention on Donbass while it refocuses the World’s and US attention to Syria. I am not sure what, if anything, the landingcrafts dropped off in Syria before heading for the Black Sea, but would hope it was something that might aid the Syrian military in making difficulties for the US in al-tanf or E. Syria.

Perhaps it was Kinzahl hypersonic missiles. Mig-31K fighters and Tupolev bombers arrived at Khmeimim recently. Both can carry Kinzahl missiles, but were not fitted with them until after arrival in Syria.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 18 2022 11:14 utc | 204

@uncle tungsten | Feb 18 2022 9:40 utc | 197
>>the JCPOA ritual discussions
It was always my impression that China and especially Russia pressed Iran to carry on with it. That and internal Iranian politics probably. The Big Five have often stuck together on nonproliferation if on nothing else. Now RF/CN encounter close to the level of hostility which Iran’s had to put up with all these years, the calculus may change. RF/CN may remember that much better how several times, the West has turned a blind eye to proliferation among its own clients. Still, just a hint that Iran might ever get boom boom, and Saudis/Turkey/Egypt will promptly pursue the same (if they don’t already); not good.
And yes, JCPOA is more of a ritual than it’s ever been. The USA left a binding intnl treaty, endorsed by the Security Council. They should count their lucky stars if they’re subsequently allowed back in. But it doesn’t work that way in practice, because FR/GB/GER cover for their masters. Some similarities with the WHO circus; many others here see the same.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 18 2022 12:10 utc | 205

@ posts by Posts by: line islands
“there’s no military-technical solution to the u.s. presence in Eastern Europe”
“any war with nato will lead quickly or even begin with use of tactical nuclear weapons, per russian policy, with escalation proceeding unpredictably from there, possibly to a full-scale thermonuclear exchange of the combined u.s. and russian arsenals of roughly 10,000 warheads.”
Etc.
—————
The military technical solutions doesn’t involve a smack in the loud mouth – a kick to the groin or ankle or stamp on the foot or a punch in the kidneys works equally well in stopping a bully. Hence Shoigu went to Syria and the East Med is waiting to see which warship reaches its depths first.
Nuclear war was clearly and unanimously taken off the possibilities by the permanent members of the UNSC just a month or so ago to avoid that accidental escalation regardless of the outcome.
Where we are right now:
There was a plan from years ago of how the Russian borderlands , Ukraine were to be divvied up. The Poles were going to get their bit. Hungarians too but that sort of faltered and the USA d nato would leave the east to the Russians. That way they have their Nato and US settlers barring the BRI and waiting for their payoffs. But it did require Russian boots on the ground for that grand design to proceed.
It seems they have decided to proceed assuming that the Russians are already there! 😂😂
But no one talks about Chernobyl! Who gets that pile of smouldering radioactive danger for the next 1000 years?

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 18 2022 12:46 utc | 206

Posted by: Jen | Feb 17 2022 23:14 utc | 153
Problem is the pipelines go east to west. Is the EU onboard with balkanisation? As for Germany / Italy I would guess not.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 18 2022 12:55 utc | 207

It is being reported that Pushilin has ordered to evacuate civilians out of Donetsk to Russia. “A mass centralized evacuation” so called. Sounds like a full resumption of hostilities is expected.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 13:36 utc | 208

Probably smart to evacuate all civilians as Ukranians would use them as human shields. Also smart to probably let Ukranian army advance first before unleashing hell and vaporizing it.

Posted by: comandante | Feb 18 2022 13:44 utc | 209

No details yet but RT reports headlines:
“Breakaway Ukrainian region orders evacuation
Civilians must flee from rebel-held Donetsk region to Russia, its head says”
https://www.rt.com/russia/549874-breakaway-ukrainian-region-evacuation/

Posted by: imo | Feb 18 2022 13:44 utc | 210

Going by what’s written in interfax, it sounds even more significant.

“The mass, centralized departure of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized starting today”

Meaning, what, total evacuation of all non-military personnel? What’s that, about 2 million people? Is LNR going to follow suit on this? What to expect next? I’m keeping one eye open as other sources pick up on this, since it seems early enough that information may still be unreliable, but at this stage it’s a very alarming piece of news.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 13:47 utc | 211

so hostilities are breaking out? i hoped the maniacs in DC and NATO would be satisfied with a fake claim of victory when Russia didn’t attack, silly me.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 18 2022 13:47 utc | 212

Hostilities broke out in form of shelling starting yesterday, I believe, but so far I am not aware of any action having taken place that would warrant a full-scale evacuation of all civilians.
More from Pushilin, via the Moscow Times.

The decision was motivated by what he called a Ukrainian plan to launch an offensive against the breakaway region and alleged troop and weapons buildup near the line of contact between the opposing sides, he added.
“President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will soon order the military to go on the offensive, implement a plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics,” Pushilin said.

DNR military intelligence has become convinced that a military offensive by Ukraine is imminent.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 13:56 utc | 213

I thought Zelenesky was backing off, trying to calm everything down. but that assumes he has some control. there’s got to be some sane people somewhere in the DC swamp, but they are not in evidence.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 18 2022 14:06 utc | 214

It’s a plausible interpretation that Zelensky is trying to, meekly, counteract foreign plans for Ukraine. However, certain decisions can be done without involving any Ukrainian central authority, including military decisions carried out by so-called absorbed volunteer battalions.
His visits to the front-line, shoddy organization of a new national holiday Ukrainian unity and public statements doubting Russian invasion claims could all be explained as part of such an effort — trying to gin up or determine loyalty among the military, trying to convince American advisors of the folly of abandoning central Ukraine, in all respects, and relocating to Lvov and trying to undermine the war-narrative to make action along that narrative unsustainable. But, I think it’s fair to think of Zelensky and his team as nobodies, whose only use is pronouncing that instructions from abroad are carried out and, if they refuse to do that, these instructions can be carried out on the ground anyway.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 14:17 utc | 215

If the Ukrainian government, foreign embassies and “military aid” are escaping west and Donbass civilians are escaping east, it sounds like a big vacuum in the middle…
Someone knows about something big that will blow up in that region? I hope nobody got the bright idea to touch a nuclear power plant.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 18 2022 14:17 utc | 216

@ Melaleuca 186
..more on the kindergarten “shelling”. . .
photo – Kyiv Post
A photograph shows debris after the reported shelling of a kindergarden in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska, Ukraine, on February 17, 2022. – U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin warned on February 17, 2022, of a provocation by Moscow to justify military intervention in Ukraine after “disturbing” reports of mutual accusations of bombing between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists.
comments on a Melaleuca’s link
>As a former artillery chief in 2 divisions.. this is NOT the result of INDIRECT FIRE. This is either made by hand tools as to said or POSSIBLY a rocket propelled grenade from about 100 meters away. Anyway truth is always the first casualty in war
>Good call. The straight cuts on the right side were done with power tools while the left-side was done with a claw hammer. The strike marks (round) are still above the purported entry hole. Unfortunately, the school is about to learn there is no insurance coverage for this incident due to the civil unrest clause. The insurance company won’t pursue “FRAUD” as it’s more economical to deny the claim due to No Coverage. Their policy won’t be renewed.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 18 2022 14:18 utc | 217

. . .from Aljazeera — 190,000 — do I hear 220?

Washington’s ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has said Russia may have as many as 190,000 soldiers stationed in and around Ukraine’s borders amid warnings from the West that Moscow may be seeking to stage a “pretext” to attack its neighbour.
Michael Carpenter told an OSCE meeting on Friday that the United States had revised its estimation of the number of servicemen massed by Moscow upwards to between 169,000 and 190,000 from three weeks ago, when he said Washington believed the number of soldiers deployed to border areas and in the Moscow-annexed Crimean Peninsula stood at 100,000. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 18 2022 14:25 utc | 218

Interfax is reporting at the moment that DNR and now also LNR are starting a mass evacuation of people to Russia.

Posted by: qubix | Feb 18 2022 14:30 utc | 219

…Reuters, Feb 18

MOSCOW, Feb 18 (Reuters) – A Russian-backed separatist leader in eastern Ukraine announced the evacuation of his breakaway region’s residents to southeast Russia on Friday after an increase in shelling.
Announcing the move on social media, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving and that women, children and the elderly should be prioritised. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 18 2022 14:38 utc | 220

imo (209).
Reading that link, it would appear that both peoples republics, Donetsk and Lugansk are in Zelensky’s crosshairs, with OSCE personnel deployed to monitor the situation, I won’t be surprised if both peoples republics are blamed for commencing hostilities, especially with Poland taking over the chair at the OSCE in January this year.
The peoples republics are right evacuate their civilians to the Rostov region.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 18 2022 14:44 utc | 221

Seems to me from a very far distance that Ukraine is a sideshow. Donbass is economically integrated with Russia now and thus the stalemate could continue indefinitely (with Russia being prepared to support the Donbass militarily to any extent necessary).
The bigger picture is that Russia is clearly and openly going for a multi-polar world and is determined to roll back threats from its borders. The NATO response is to ramp up forces close to Russia! Madness.
Russia sees a window for achieving its aims now. It has military technology which NATO does not. However, inevitably the NATO forces will eventually get hypersonics, and the Russian edge will be lost.
US forces are reeling from the Afgan disaster, but time will heal some of the psychological wounds of that debacle.
NS2 is completed, filled with gas and ready to be turned on.
I’m no strategist but I do see two avenues for the Russians:
1. Using Ukraine pressure against Donbass to halt all gas shipments to and through the Ukraine. At the same time saying to the Germans that they do not wish to halt shipments to Germany, it is just that those shipments must go through NS2
Following this would be a demand on the Baltic States and Poland to scale down the NATO presence in their countries or face Russian military action against those forces. The result of this would be either a NATO backdown or it is on for young and old.
2. In Syria. The Syrians could demand the immediate withdrawal of US occupying forces, and request Russian military help in the event of a refusal. The US could not maintain an occupation in an actively hostile environment where, at the least, they could not guarantee air supremacy (not probably control of the sea).

Posted by: Bluey | Feb 18 2022 14:51 utc | 222

It seems all Ukrainian actions are met in kind, but with a delay so that provocation can be proven.
Escalation ‘seems’ to be in the hands of the Ukrainian forces.
My guess is that this holds til some very unfortunate group of fighters is sent across the demarcation line. There may be a delay, a couple phone calls, but I would not want to be them or anywhere near them after that documenting of aggression process is done

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 18 2022 14:56 utc | 223

In response to Republicofscotland@220,
It’s a fairly big population though, something like 4-5 million people, so a mass evacuation event isn’t something you do “just in case” or to be on the safe side, expecting that everyone can go back to what they were doing next Thursday. It’s also not an insignificant cost to Russia to provide temporary shelter for these people, so if the Russians signed off on it I would expect that they too are confident about whatever intelligence they have that triggered it. Not that abandoning diplomatic offices and destroying documents and equipment isn’t serious, but it’s certainly simpler in terms of logistics and efforts to do those kind of actions for show.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 15:03 utc | 224

Here’s a good article from last May on coal mining in Donbas and its effect on the land.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 18 2022 15:09 utc | 225

Skiffer (224)
Agreed, the intel must be sound for them to ask civilians to leave, the Rostov region already has a population of around 4.5 million folk

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 18 2022 15:12 utc | 226

It appears as though the roles have now switched… The Donbas republics and Russia are beginning to claim that the Ukrainians are positioning themselves to imminently attack, as evidenced by the continuous shelling over the past couple of days, and now the evacuation of Donbas civilians (women, children, and elderly first).
Suddenly, the onus is on the Ukraine (and the USA/UK) to prove that this is not the case, which is a perfect counter to the months of the western barrage of accusations that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine.
Also, it frees Russia from worrying about inflicting civilian casualties, if and when they retaliate against any Ukrainian incursion into the Donbas – they can then let loose as they please.

Posted by: marsal | Feb 18 2022 15:22 utc | 227

Looks the Game is on – Donbass is getting shelled heavy enough to start excavating its people to Russia and any others to Crimea. Crimea is on alert. I don’t hear any jets in the air yet but I’m hope Russia stops with the Talkin BS and starts taking care of business – there is No future in the West and they better get with the program. Goin to be a long night in Donbass. Keep your head low – Tex.

Posted by: GMC | Feb 18 2022 15:51 utc | 228

Air-raid sirens are going off in Donetsk, all civilian vehicle traffic is being directed out of the region. Also, unconfirmed, supposedly a diversionary group was apprehended yesterday in Donetsk, who are suspected of having planned a terrorist attack on a chemical plant.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 16:02 utc | 229

Also, suddenly Russian military involvement in Ukraine on the 20’th is starting to appear a lot less far fetched.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 16:04 utc | 230

The only thing that can be imminent is a violent action against russian-speaking population..that’s my fear because now the empire is really at a desperation point..the yanks and their vassals know that their credibility is nothing now and it will never be resumed.Let’s hope that nothing bad will happen in Donbass.

Posted by: LuBa | Feb 18 2022 16:30 utc | 231

Ukrainian blogger Yuri Podolyaka uploaded a brief sitrep and included the public announcements of DNR and LNR respectively (5.40 ish). I watched it with auto-generated translation on and it appears mostly comprehensible, save for a few weapon systems, expressive language and other cursory details — thus, it’s fairly intelligible and recommended for those with interest in the topic. By that, I mostly mean the official announcements, since no breaking news report that I came across has had the common courtesy to cite those in full. And, it’s telling to see the emotional states of these heads of state, though perhaps I am merely imagining that they are expressing agitation.
As for the analysis and predictions of Yuri, since there is very little new information there also isn’t much to say. Although he remains optimistic about hostilities being contained to the Donbas (odd having to call that an optimistic position) he is nonetheless warning residents in Kiev to also prepare for evacuation on their own, since it’s unlikely that the central government will be able to organize anything.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 16:34 utc | 232

…from Sputnik
The leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics announced the start of mass evacuations of their territories to Russia on Friday amid fears of Ukrainian shelling and a possible invasion. The republics have reported dozens of violations of the Minsk ceasefire by Kiev in recent days using artillery and anti-tank weapons.
A powerful explosion rocked central Donetsk on Friday evening, a Sputnik correspondent has reported. The explosion is said to have occurred outside the building housing the republic’s government.
A People’s Militia spokesman said a vehicle was blown up in a parking lot near the building at about 7 pm local time, with the blast wave from the explosion powerful enough to have been heard throughout the city. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 18 2022 16:54 utc | 233

Dmitry Orlov has done a victory lap of sorts over having predicted this evacuation in a previous article. According to him, the evacuation is part of a Putin judo move of retaining the status quo in Ukraine without breaking any of the self-imposed humanitarian limitations that he has set up. If I understand him correctly, these evacuees will be permanently absorbed by Russia.
I remember reading the article by him that he references and coming to the same conclusion as many other commenters that it was defeatist. Of course, human lives are of absolute importance, but it certainly can’t feel good having to follow the advice of Ukrainian radicals, or Zelensky, of abandoning your home to moving to Russia, simply because you don’t agree with the political direction or ethno-dictates that have become the norm in your country. Although the war may go on, such a step would certainly taste like defeat in the mouths of many, particularly those who observe and comment on it from relative safety.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 17:09 utc | 234

@Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 17:09 utc | 234
In your linked article Orlov gives the combined population of the Republics as 4.6 million, which he calls “moderate by the scale of World War II evacuations”.
At the same time it clears the area for World War level kinetics “with modern characteristics”.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 18 2022 17:31 utc | 235

In response to Vintage Red@235,
Don’t know what, if anything, you’re implying with that? Or emphasizing?
WW2 style evacuations aren’t exactly something I look forward to in my daily life, or hold as some gold standard of success for that matter. But, either way, the logistics necessary to gather, transit and care for 5 million people in a very short amount of time — it’s a major headache no matter what you compare it to. And yes, it does make it easier for Russia to use some serious firepower if need be, although Ukraine has its own share of MLRS on the contact line which, if used offensively, would lead to massive civilian casualties.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 17:47 utc | 236

@Blue Dotterel | Feb 18 2022 10:29 utc | 203
>>One needs to drive home the point that US criminality and disrespect
>>for international law is a global problem. This putting pressure on
>>the US with respect to its constant violations of international law
As Papa Bush was bombing those districts of Panama City that were home to Noriega supporters, he is alleged to have said “Quaint notions of international law should not stand in the way of our ability to spread freedom in the world.”
Moscow is always pretty cautious on the point you mention, probably because they feel they’re on a bit thin ice when it comes to LDPR. Yes, their rebellion was in reaction to a violent coup in Kiev; it may have been justified to you and me, but that narrative has marginal buy-in in Europe. Also, Moscow’s overt diplomatic and humanitarian support for LDPR has a limited covert military counterpart; all sorts of fudges are being made when alternatives are scarce. And in Syria, Russia works with Hezbollah which is a non-state militia, while bombing pro-Turkish, pro-Gulf non-state militias. So you don’t go too far out on a limb; never demonize your opponents so much that you can’t sell the eventual deal with them politically. I know it drives me crazy sometimes, but after seeing it for a while the “Russian way” sorta makes sense.
Bottom line: the person most strident that we’re simply talking about Good vs Evil is… George Soros.
——————————————
@Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 14:17 utc | 215
>>But, I think it’s fair to think of Zelensky and his team as nobodies
How quickly the years pass; it seems like yesterday that I was following Stephen Cohen on the John Batchelor Show. There was this episode where Obama had ordered his military to cooperate with Russia against ISIL (as he called it) in Syria. The USAF showed its reservations by bombing an SAA position in Deir Ezzor–actual heroes in a way none of us can dream to be. Then all Obama knew to do was to pretend that he’d ordered/approved the strike, to hide to stark truth that nobody really was in charge.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 18 2022 17:58 utc | 237

Skiffer 234
I doubt those evacuating will become permanent residents of Russia – unless of course eastern Ukraine becomes part of Russia at some future point.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2022 18:02 utc | 238

@Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 17:47 utc | 236
My sincere apologies if I was unclear or poorly contexted. Others upthread had wondered how many people were involved and if such an evacuation were possible under current conditions. I’m not particularly a fan of Orlov but had just read the piece you linked over at The Saker; I was just about to cite it myself as it seemed to answer some of the questions raised above.
I am right with you on evacuation such as this being among the worst disruptions the peoples of the Republics could suffer to their lives right now; the only thing worse would be to be trapped amid this horror. Along with everyone else who is paying attention I am hoping the Empire can be defeated without World War level hostilities breaking out. I am *just* old enough to remember how close we came once before.
Again, apologies, didn’t mean to offend, alarm or seem casually unconcerned.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 18 2022 18:09 utc | 239

In response to Peter AU1@238,
I don’t know. If the plan is to drag this conflict out in perpetuity minus civilian casualties, which seems to be Orlov’s take, then that’s about as permanent as it gets. Suppose Minsk agreements are implemented in 2035 after several reignitions of civil war and, presumably, the use of more serious armaments that the civilian presence previously made unfeasible. Who’s going to move back to the field that used to be their house 10 years ago, and can that even be called returning? But, that’s mostly my reaction to Orlov’s ideas on the matter. I’m still not sure we’re at the stage where the resumption of hostilities is inevitable.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 18:11 utc | 240

In response to Vintage Red@239,
No offense taken, naturally. Thought I was being thick in missing some obvious conclusion that was being hinted at. This conflict is very close to me personally, even if not geographically.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 18:27 utc | 241

After reading the commentary on this page it appears that those in charge of Zelensky have decided to “talk” to the Donbass via howitzers and Grads, instead of the diplomatic methods Minsk demands. If so, yet another UNSCR violation by the Outlaws in a desperate ploy to fulfill their predictions of Russian aggression.
On evacuation, given the presence of genocidal conditions, removing non-combatants from the meat grinder ought to be seen as a no-brainer. In other words, why are so many questioning that decision? I’m sure Russia’s Security Council has always seen that being very likely and has planned for it. Yes, becoming a refugee is disheartening, but at least in this case those evacuating are going to be cared for by friends who offer opportunity instead of misery.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 18 2022 19:30 utc | 242

As we’re all waiting breathlessly to see “What will Putin do?”, isn’t the most striking reaction the one from Paris and Berlin? Striking in its absence. In their role (their responsibility if that word is still understood) as sponsors of the Minsk Agreements, wouldn’t this be the time to tell Kiev to call it off pronto?
We may not like it, but it seems like they’re in on the joke; always were. France and Germany being the grown-ups of Europe is an idea that died in 2003–in essence because their voters killed it, by punishing the leaders who’d passed up the glory of the Iraq invasion.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 18 2022 19:54 utc | 243

@Ma Laoshi | Feb 18 2022 19:54 utc | 243

As we’re all waiting breathlessly to see “What will Putin do?”, isn’t the most striking reaction the one from Paris and Berlin? Striking in its absence. In their role (their responsibility if that word is still understood) as sponsors of the Minsk Agreements, wouldn’t this be the time to tell Kiev to call it off pronto?

Does Kiev have the power to call it off?
Ukraine says it hasn’t ordered Donbass attack

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 18 2022 19:59 utc | 244

@Skiffer | Feb 18 2022 18:27 utc | 241
I’m very glad there was no offense, I’m an Old Aspie long used to being tuned to a different frequency than most and do my best to head off misunderstandings as soon as I’m aware of them. It may take me awhile to come to a conclusion but once I do it’s not my style to hint, I’m pretty clear (though my partner has called me “the king of understatement”).
I don’t have any personal link to the region but despise the West’s taking in so many Nazis after WW2, including direct forebears of the Azov, Right Sector and other Nazi militia threatening the Donbas. I am hard to anger but was absolutely livid at Trump’s appropriating the entirety of the victory on the 75th anniversary 2 years ago [comment 40], as if the Red Army and Soviet people’s resistance were a sideshow.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 18 2022 20:05 utc | 245

As for the bigger picture related to the Outlaws’s threats, an ever-mounting number of analysts are saying the vowed “sanctions from hell” will have a very large amount of Blowback capable of doing a great deal of damage to the global financial system as presently constructed. Indeed, China and Russia are ready to abandon SWIFT and deploy their own clearing system that will entice all the nations watching from the sidelines and wishing they could do something to contain the Outlaws to also abandon SWIFT. That will immediately slow the dollar recycling required to keep the Outlaw US Empire from experiencing a massive spike in inflation. The first combination of sanctions and trade war allowed both Russia and China to make their economies more robust and resilient such that the threatened new round will only boost their economies further as they disconnect from the dollar which will boost their national currencies. The bottom line is the Outlaw US Empire grossly overestimates its commercial importance to the world’s nations while underestimating the volatility sanctions Blowback will exert on its very unstable domestic political situation.
Russia’s acting like Br’er Rabbit begging Br’re Fox not to throw him into the briar patch, or we could see sanctions as the Tar Baby–both are part of American Lore likely forgotten by those exerting power behind the scenes.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 18 2022 20:09 utc | 246

@Ma Laoshi | Feb 18 2022 19:54 utc | 243

We may not like it, but it seems like they’re in on the joke; always were. France and Germany being the grown-ups of Europe is an idea that died in 2003–in essence because their voters killed it, by punishing the leaders who’d passed up the glory of the Iraq invasion.

I beg to differ here. Schroeder certainly was not voted out for the Iraq aggression denial. He had top scores of approval for that. At that time, a million people had demonstrated against the US aggression and “the coalition of the willing”.
Schroeder and Fischer obfuscated the amount of indirect support for the Iraq aggression the BRD government actually gave, because that war was so tremendously unpopular, and opposition against popular.
What killed the social democrats, was the turn towards neoliberalism. Schroeder had tried to copy Bliar and his “New Labour” with anti worker laws of the “Agenda 2010”, cannibalizing unemployment payments, actually forcing workers to take any job regardless of their previous qualification, even imposing 1Euro forced labour to longer time unemployed. Schroeder bragged to have created “the best low wage sector in Europe”. By the position of social democrats in the Labour Union bureaucracy, he broke the resistance of the trade unions. These activities allowed the creation of the party “Die Linke” from dissident social democrats in West Germany, and the PDS, the followup to DDR communist party SED, as a relatively powerful pro labour and pro peace party. (This party now sadly is rotten to a pro gender, pro migration, and only very conditionally pro peace party of urban liberals, with contempts for the “bildungsferne Unterschichten”. Consequently the working class turned their back to these idiots.)
Other than with “New Labour”, the punishment by the electorate came faster, and due to the refusal of the SPD to mull a left government, led first to a conservative+liberal regime, then to the “great coalitions” of conservative CDU and SPD, and gave rise to the Merkel regime. The rotten corpses of SPD and Greens now became successors of these 16 years of stagnation, a change from bad to worse.
Hope not to have bored. I agree that Germany as “grown up” isn’t but a bad joke.

Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 18 2022 20:22 utc | 247

karlof1 246
I have been thinking it would be good for the US to bring in the sanctions and force EU into sanctions that will be devastating for the EU for the reasons you state in that comment.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2022 20:28 utc | 248

aquadraht Feb 18 2022 20:22 utc 247
Far from boring, your information is exactly what I come to MoA for: crucial, truthful points I would not otherwise have read as a person in the United States. Thank you very much for posting it.

Posted by: Linda Wood | Feb 18 2022 22:04 utc | 249

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 18 2022 20:05 utc | 245
If there is ONE thing everybody else should agree to is the following:
Actual fascists have to be destroyed as the first priority.
Other issues can be resolved afterwards.

Posted by: Misotheist | Feb 18 2022 23:53 utc | 250

@Misotheist | Feb 18 2022 23:53 utc | 250
We are fully in agreement

Posted by: Vintage Red | Feb 19 2022 0:12 utc | 251

@Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 18 2022 20:22 utc | 247
That was excellent information, most definitely not boring. I had forgotten that it was Schroeder who brought neoliberalism to the social democrats – like a German Clinton or Blair.
In Canada Jean Chretien is well remembered for not getting the country embroiled in this illegal war (something lost on our current leaders), while in the UK Blair has never been forgiven for going against the will of the people. Without Blair’s support it would have been much more difficult for the US to go to war. I remember the leader of Turkey being lambasted by the US for listening to his citizenry and deciding not to join the US coalition. The US people were thoroughly propagandized and lied to so that the war could go ahead, and within months saw the war as a mistake.
Blinken’s latest act at the UN reminded me so much of Colin Powell’s lies at the same institution.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 19 2022 3:50 utc | 252

Below is a quote from a Xinhuanet posting that may give a reason why Zelenesky wants to attend the MSC…..the theme…..grin
”
MUNICH, Germany, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) — The 58th edition of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) opened here on Friday afternoon with a theme focusing on “unlearning helplessness” against the backdrop of tensions in the Ukraine crisis.
”

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 19 2022 5:56 utc | 253

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 18 2022 20:09 utc | 246
“The bottom line is the Outlaw US Empire grossly overestimates its commercial importance to the world’s nations while underestimating the volatility sanctions Blowback will exert on its very unstable domestic political situation.”
Spot on karlof. Russia, China and Iran have been very disciplined and focused. Russia and Iran have endured sanctions and grown stronger. BRI is growing like wildfire in Latin America, anchored by Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela but many more countries are reconfiguring their supply lines, planning out huge infrastructure builds with China.
My guess: the sanctions from hell will trigger the end of SWIFT and another huge surge in BRI projects and deals. Biden won’t last the year.

Posted by: migueljose | Feb 20 2022 4:49 utc | 254

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