MoA - How A Misguided Grand Strategy Led To This U.S. Defeat

February 02, 2022

How A Misguided Grand Strategy Led To This U.S. Defeat

In response to Russia's demand for security guarantees, especially to its request to remove foreign NATO forces from the territory of East European countries, the U.S. and Britain are moving more forces to the east:

President Joe Biden has formally approved additional US military deployments to Eastern Europe, the Pentagon announced Wednesday, with US troops deploying soon to Poland, Germany and Romania.
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Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the deployments include roughly 2,000 troops from the United States to Poland and Germany in the coming days. In addition, approximately 1,000 troops currently based in Germany are being deployed to Romania.
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Kirby said that the troops being deployed are separate and in addition to the 8,500 US troops that were placed on heightened alert last week that could be moved to Europe to support NATO's response force if it's activated.
The troops will operate on a bilateral basis with their host countries, since NATO has not yet activated a multinational response force.

This is a rather token amount of forces in the wrong places and with little combat value but it is serious in its symbolic character.

It was the U.S. that launched the 'Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine' propaganda campaign. On October 30 2021 the Washington Post published the first stenographed piece on it:

A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank.
The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said the troop movements have reignited concerns that arose in April, when the largest buildup of troops by Russia near the Ukrainian border in years sparked an international outcry.

The March/April build-up of Russian troops had come after Kiev had deployed more forces towards its rebel held Donbas area and had made public statements about regaining it by force. The Russian show of force was sufficient to cool Kiev down and soon the troops on both sides went back to their barracks.

By fall Russia was moving only a few troops from and to regular exercises in a normal manner. There was no surge activity. So why was the U.S. screaming alarm and continues to do so?

This information operation must be seen in the larger context of China's rise, Russia's resurgence and the loss of U.S. supremacy.

In an essay to his mailing list Professor Michael Brenner explained the motives behind it:

The situational logic of the emerging international constellation of forces pointed to two possible American strategies. The most obvious would aim at preventing the solidification of an alliance between Russia and China. Together, they represent a formidable bloc now capable of challenging the U.S.-led Western bloc in just about every sphere.
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The alternative strategy was to ratchet up pressure on Russia so as to nip in the bud Putin/Moscow’s aspiration to become once again a major player – one dedicated to denying the United States its privileges as global hegemon and sole master of Europe. The driving force came from the ardent Victoria Nuland and her neo-Con comrades ensconced in the power agencies, in Congress and in the MSM. Since Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan were themselves partisans of this confrontational strategy, the outcome of whatever modicum of debate occurred was preordained.

Nuland and Blinken have ancestral roots in east Europe. To them Russia is evil. But there is more to this. These people would like to see Russia balkanized into many small parts.

Jon Schwarz @schwarz - 20:10 UTC · Jan 31, 2022
In Robert Gates's memoir "Duty," he describes how at the end of the Cold War, Dick Cheney—then secretary of defense—wanted to dismantle not just the Soviet Union but Russia itself. No one in the US knows or cares about this, but I bet lots of people in the Russian government do.

bigger

The current State Department point person running U.S. Russia policy is Victoria 'Fuck the EU' Nuland:

From 2003 to 2005, Nuland served as the principal deputy foreign policy adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.

Cheney and Nuland have the same nefarious neo-conservative mindset.

Back to the non-action around the Ukraine as analyzed by Michael Brenner:

The events of April kicked-off the turbulent maelstrom that we’ve experienced to this day. What scenario did the Biden people want to see unfold? Any attempt at an answer must take account of the cardinal fact that nobody in official Washington cared very much what it meant for the stability of Ukraine or the welfare of the Ukrainian people. Their eyes were fixed on Russia. Their objective was to create a reason for imposing a crippling load of economic sanctions that would put paid to Putin’s supposed ambitions in Europe – and beyond. At least, that would free the West to devote its full energies to dealing with China. Ideally, it would return Moscow into a beggared facsimile of the pliable Yeltsin model or an innocuous neo-liberal satrap. Everything the United States has done vis a vis Ukraine over the past year has been dictated by that overarching goal.
They set about manufacturing a scenario that would enable them to reach that end. The key would be some Russian counter-action to a Ukrainian provocation, of uncertain magnitude, that could serve as a casus belli for the draconian sanctions and for gaining the full cooperation of its allies. The unexpectedly forceful, unaccommodating response from Moscow threw a monkey-wrench into the plan, but did not alter the course Washington was committed to.
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[T]he Biden people went all-out to convince the continental Europeans that they should sign onto a package of severe economic sanctions that would be triggered with near automaticity were the Russians to do something egregious. They assumed that Washington would make the judgment as what constituted an egregious action.

German, France and Italy inter alia refused to go along with this trip-wire strategy. They don’t trust Washington, they don’t want a confrontation with Putin, and they dread the disruptive impact on their own countries of sanctions (with evident domestic political consequences). Germany’s reluctance to line up obediently behind Washington was especially frustrating.
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To make their case to Germany, France and like-minded allies, Biden, Blinken et al began in October to stoke the war fever with dire predictions of an ‘imminent’ Russian invasion. They conjured a “lightening strike,” – i.e. the sort of ‘cold start’, straight to the Channel, that agitated NATO planners back in the Cold War days. Bad metaphors never die, they just await the next paranoid episode.

Washington was thrown off stride when Moscow refused to play the role assigned to it. They said and did nothing to substantiate the claim. The Russo-phobia had taken on a life of its own that left the White House painted into a corner. The level of desperation was evinced by the CIA Director William Burns’ tour of European capitals with a briefcase filled with CIA generated ‘infallible’ evidence that an invasion was in the offing – and that, therefore, the Europeans immediately should commit to the trip-wire sanctions so as to deter the in fact fantastical invasion. The hottest material were satellite photographs purporting to show Russian armored units in battle formations “at the Ukrainian border” (just 180 miles away). We now know that the photographs were doctored. The tanks and other equipment were at their permanent bases adjacent to barracks and other fixed facilities. The CIA’s pictures had been cropped. The CIA, the White House and attendant Washington agencies were trying to palm off fraudulent goods whose sophistication was worthy of a 5th-grader.

That is the state we are still in. The U.S. is screaming for war and increasing the chance for it in the hope to get Russia to do something that justifies 'crushing new sanctions'.

But in mid December Russia started to counter the U.S. move. It published two draft treaties, one with the U.S. and one with NATO, that included stringent security demands:

No more NATO expansion towards Russia's borders.
Retraction of the 2008 NATO invitation to Ukraine and Georgia.
Removal of foreign NATO forces from east Europe.
Legally binding guarantee that no strike systems which could target Moscow will be deployed in countries near to Russia.
No NATO or equivalent (UK, U.S., Pl.) 'exercises' near Russian borders.
NATO ships, planes to keep certain distances from Russian borders.
Regular military-to-military talks.
No U.S. nukes in Europe.

Russia requested written responses and threatened to take 'military technical' measures should the responses be negative. Russia also planned for and launched new military exercises.

The responses were received but, following a U.S. request, Russia refrained from publishing them. They were leaked to El Pais, published today and can be downloaded here (pdf).

The U.S. response to Russia's draft treaties is professional. While it rejects Russia's main demands, especially a neutral status for the Ukraine, it concedes on minor issues and offers additional talks on them. The NATO response is in contrast highly ideological and rejects all of Russia's points while making new demands towards Russia which are designed to be rejected. (Future negotiations are now likely to exclude NATO.)

Russia has yet to officially respond to the received letters. During a news conference after talks with the Prime Minister of Hungary the Russian President remarked on the letters:

[W]hile ignoring our concerns, the United States and NATO are referring to the right of states to freely choose specific methods to ensure their security. But this is not only about providing someone with the right to freely choose methods to ensure their security. This is only one part of the well-known indivisible security formula. The second inalienable part implies that it is impossible to strengthen anyone’s security at the expense of other states’ security.

Russia's Foreign Ministry has send a letter to several NATO countries in which it requests their official opinions on several agreements they have signed which include clauses on the indivisibility of security:

The very essence of the agreements on indivisible security is that either there is security for all or there is no security for anyone.

How is the signing of those treaties and indivisible security for all compatible with the aggressive NATO expansion aimed at Russia? 'Western' foreign ministries will find it difficult to answer that question.

The U.S. strategy to 'fix' Russia in Europe by imposing 'crushing sanctions' on it to then attack China is failing. That is because it was completely misconceived.

Russia is the most autarkic country in the world. It produces nearly everything it needs and has highly desirable products that are in global demand and are especially needed in Europe. Russia also has huge financial reserves. A sanctions strategy against Russia can not work.

To use the Ukraine to gaud Russia into some aggression to then apply sanctions was likewise a rather lunatic attempt. There is nothing in the Ukraine that would tempt Russia to invade. Everything that may have do be done in the Ukraine can be done from Russian territory by Russian missiles or its air force and navy.

Instead of splitting Russia from China the U.S. has unintentionally done its best to push them into a deeper alliance. It was the most severe strategic error the U.S. could make.

Instead of a taking a new strategic posture that would support a pivot to Asia strategy the U.S. is now moving troops back to Europe.

The narrow-minded bigotry of U.S. decision makers, fed by believe in U.S. exceptionalism while lacking any conception of real power, has led to this defeat.

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Adding: I consider this to be the White House's acknowledgment of its strategic failure.

Kevin Liptak @Kevinliptakcnn - 17:55 UTC · Feb 2, 2022
The White House says it's no longer using the word "imminent" to describe the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was sending an unintended message, Jen Psaki says.

'Unintended imminence'? These people are clowns and bad at it.

Posted by b on February 2, 2022 at 18:36 UTC | Permalink

Comments

The issue is not just the fact that US State Dept policy on Russia is dominated by people with ancestral ties in Eastern Europe; it also includes the fact that the US Democratic Party, going all the way up to and including the POTUS, has ties to Ukrainian energy-related oligarchic interests and to the Ukrainian diaspora in North America, many if not most of whom still loathe the USSR and Russia, and whose ancestors may have cooperated with the Nazis nearly 80 years ago.

Not to mention also that capturing Crimea, with its geostrategic importance in the Black Sea, between Europe and the Caspian Sea (and Central Asia beyond) and the naval base in Sevastopol, for the US is a major goal. The US is keen to fight to the last Ukrainian for this prize.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 2 2022 18:58 utc | 1

It is the likelihood of a false flag event in Donbass that concerns me.

How can the Russians (a) prevent this happening in the first place or (b) react wisely and effectively if it does?

Posted by: Echelon | Feb 2 2022 19:02 utc | 2

Worse than clowns. These people are not only an embarrassment to the U.S. but to the whole species. The next wave election could bring back Bolton and Pompeo. The U.S. is in a deadly rut.

Posted by: par4 | Feb 2 2022 19:07 utc | 3

Echelon @ 2
"How can the Russians (a) prevent this happening in the first place or (b) react wisely and effectively if it does?"

Perhaps a quiet diplomatic note to the US that if a false flag were to occur, the resulting response would target all US troops in Ukraine. It might give the puppet master something to think about.

Posted by: Victor | Feb 2 2022 19:09 utc | 4

Excellent.

Kabuki is about ye olde USA pipeline embagos, going back to Reagan era. Blinken literally wrote a thesis on it.

And yes, cripple Russia in USA business interests.

Energy is economy.

Ukraine, or it's President, are realising they are being played as US patsies.

They will implement the Minsk agreement.

Zelinsk can save his butt by doing a mirror agreement giving autonomy to the Nazis on the left hand side. Except foreign policy. And regional governor to be locally elected.

That should suck the troublemakers back home.

Zelinsk will need an elite Presidential guard.

An massive reforms.

And face the public in an honest truth and reconciliation move.

He could do it. But is he the man for the hour?

Posted by: Powerandpeople | Feb 2 2022 19:10 utc | 5

excellent summary, b, most excellent
many thanks

Posted by: michaelj72 | Feb 2 2022 19:14 utc | 6

Caucaus-Slavic Khazar-Ashkenazi Jewish-Bolsheviks in their Centuries-Long War of Control over European+Russian Powers - this time through TwinkBlinken, Nudelman-Khagan, Zelensky, and NATO - might bring in another Hot War.

The AngloMurican-ZioMasonics + Tribals are hoping for a "Contained" War over UKR/Black_Sea; but they're dealing with RUS, who can Land HyperSonics and Cruise Missiles all over Europe, Club_Med, and CONUS - just to make sure Washington get some on their Doorsteps.

#FireBlinken #FireNuland #ImpeachBiden #EuropeReplaceNATOwithNordStreamsandSilkRoad #YankeeGoHome

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 2 2022 19:15 utc | 7

I think Ukrainian Army had a bit of a shock today. It looks like their monopoly on attack drones has just disappeared. A Ukrainian soldier was wounded by one and was lucky not to be killed. Yesterday a DNR soldier was not so lucky and was killed and todays attack looked like revenge/deterrent.
Pro-Ukraine tweeter were suggesting that Russia would have to remove its drones under Minsk Agreements but if Russian drones are operated by DNR/LNR forces they have as much right to use them as Ukrainian forces. Is this the first sign that Russia is going to seriously upgrade DNR/LNR forces. The Bayraktar UAV advantage has probably gone and with attack drones fitted with thermal imaging, any advantage conferred by Javelins and NLAWs is probably neutralised.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Feb 2 2022 19:16 utc | 8

Its Vanishing Imminence not Unintended Imminence b.

They are confused and getting their countries mixed up. And none of us are laughing.

This next month of posturing should be interesting. Maybe by the end of the month one can come up with a posting of all the different ways that moving empire military into Europe is defensive against Russia's aggression in Ukraine is mansplained to the world.

We are watching the best shit show the God of Mammon can buy. Will it be enough to overcome the merit based countries in opposition to the financial bully of the "schoolyard"?

Stay tuned and please have some respect for the provider of this web site. Get some perspective about what is at offer here and quit the childish requests for something other than the respectable alternative to MSM that you get w/o marketing or ads here at MoA. Try and add some value or keep your textual white noise to your self. b deletes or bit buckets some of my comments on a regular basis....get over yourself and remember the Hopi precepts....#4

Show up
Be Present
Tell The Truth
Don't Own The Outcome

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 2 2022 19:19 utc | 9

From "The World is not Enough" lyrics from the Anglo-American James Bond MI6-CIA-propaganda movies:

"No one ever died from wanting too much."

"The world is not enough. Nowhere near enough."

"If we can't have it all, then nobody will."

"Together we can take the world apart."

It's as if these are de facto UKUSA MI6-CIA neolib-neocon guiding principles - never enough world hegemony, plunder and loot for the UKUSA yakuza crime organization.

These united crime bosses have until now been able to act with impunity. A multi-polar world is starting to say enough of this mafia rule.

Posted by: Canadian Cents | Feb 2 2022 19:22 utc | 10

There is a logical leap in this blog post that doesn’t make sense to me. If a Russian build-up and invasion threat were totally false, the natural course of action for Russia would be to present evidence privately to the European governments with which it has close trade relations.

Instead, Russia issued an ultimatum with very ambitious demands. Even Kremlin-friendly Russian media, interviewing Lavrov recently, asked him something to the effect of “did we just win a war against the USA? Because these types of demands are usually issued to the losing party by the winning party after a war.” Incidentally the way the journalist put that question was a great example of dry Russian humor which I am not conveying well.

There are obviously hysterics going on in official Washington. I can’t make up my mind on the reason. It could be a nefarious plot as you say to stir up a war, or it could be a bunch of incompetents worried about another foreign policy disaster so soon after Afghanistan. The move to evacuate the US embassy in Kiev makes me think they actually think there might be an invasion, and don’t want another Afghanistan style debacle of Americans trying to get out of a war zone in which America is on the losing side. The general tenor of barely suppressed panic also makes me think the worry is genuine. But I’m not sure.

And on the Russian side, there have plainly been troop movements intended to intimidate Ukraine. I don’t even blame the Russians, they want to scare Ukraine away from an assault on the Donbas. But nevertheless it’s not just a story of innocent Russians with their tanks and troops parked in the same positions as 2010.

Try as I might, I don’t understand the Russian game plan. What do they intend to do that will intimidate the US and NATO enough to accede to Russia’s demands? And not only get Biden to agree to, but be able to get through a thoroughly Russia-hostile Congress? I don’t think Putin, Lavrov and the rest of the Russian leadership are blithering idiots. So they have something in mind. I just don’t think anyone I read has adequately guessed what that is.

Posted by: Sean | Feb 2 2022 19:32 utc | 11

Eastern Europeans have as long a memory as the Russian. They know World War 2 in Europe was only possible after Joe and Adolf reached agreement with the treaty of August 23, 1939. Eastern Europeans remember it was the Soviet Union which invaded Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia--massacring most of their intellectual and professional classes. Absent the Soviet Nazi cooperation the German military would never have allowed Hitler to launch his war. Russiaphiles want to forget their complicity in launching WWII. The consequence of that short sighted decision allowed the US to subjugate western Europe. Unintended consequences are always the outcome of war--

Posted by: wobblie | Feb 2 2022 19:46 utc | 12

It seems that today Ukraine has announced that they will not allow any autonomy to any province.
So they are positioning themselves against the Minsk agreement. It happened after Boris' visit to Kiev.

Posted by: lsammart | Feb 2 2022 19:47 utc | 13

btw, in the context of US systematic pressure to 'eat Russia's economic lunch', the 'new' technique is to unilaterally 'determine' what the standards for delivery of goods and services will be. And make sure that they are created. interpreted, and implemented to Russia (and China's) disadvantage.

Take the original global rail line systems. The gauge differed between countries. This meant additional costs and 'bush fixes' to allow rail bogeys on one track width to continue their journey on another countries track width.

The signals are out - USA will decide on the 'standards' for 'green energy'. And make sure Russia will have difficulty meeting and/or implementing them.

Germany - drawing on its racist Nazi impulses - has banned the RT German language news station because it doesn't meet the German regulations. Youtube banned RT the day the Germans did. France refuses to recognise RT as being a news organisation. The 'standard' for news is in the gutter. Or rather, the 'standards' of the Western coiterie is.

China, the world leader in 5G more or less set the standard for this technology, as it was the major innovator. This, too, will be reset by the west in its one-sided favor.

But rememebr what happened last time these tragi-comic games were played - the US rejected the metric system, and continued with it's own idiosyncratic measurement standard. As a result, the 'O' rings sealing fuel in one of its spacecraft failed due to confusion in the measurement system used there, and the craft exploded, killing all on board.

There's a metaphor for the future of this arrogance.

In the meantime, in spite of the US destroying the World Trade anti-subsidy mechanism, the real world - not the bit that the arrogant west considers the world (itself) - makes bilateral and multilateral trade deals, USA stands aside.

Ultimately, people know which side their bread is buttered on. You cannot ignore the leading technologists, the STEM heavy China & Russia with regard to standards.

Posted by: powerandpeople | Feb 2 2022 19:52 utc | 14

The US position is very clear - and also very funny. They are jumping up and down and screaming at Ukraine to "Go fight the Russians". To Europe the message is "Never mind your own interests. Just go and help the Ukrainians all you can". Uncle Sam intends to sit it out, watch the show, and sweep in like a vulture on the dead carcasses.

Posted by: guest | Feb 2 2022 20:03 utc | 15

From Lavrov's letter, the bolded portion is the meat of the issue:

"We want to receive a clear answer to the question how our partners understand their obligation not to strengthen their own security at the expense of the security of other States on the basis of the commitment to the principle of indivisible security. How specifically does your Government intend to fulfil this obligation in practical terms in the current circumstances? If you renege on this obligation, we ask you to clearly state that."

What Russia wants to know essentially is if the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals are intent on breaking the OSCE treaties that are at issue? Judging by Orban's talk yesterday, Hungary will split the NATO reply since it will adhere to its OSCE commitments.

What many/most fail to realize (at least I've failed to read anyone saying as much) is that the OSCE Security Treaties are very similar in their construction to the UN Charter since they're designed to impede unilateral action by any one nation or group of nations. Indivisible Security doesn't give any nation the right to impinge on the security of another nation, essentially giving that nation veto power over another nation's choice. Clearly as Lavrov states, it appears a slew of nations weren't aware of what they were committing themselves to or they are lying when they say so. As with the UN Charter, there's only one possible interpretation of what's written in the agreement--a nation cannot interfere in the sovereign affairs of another nation--period--just as no nation can ensure its security at the cost of another nation's security. I'd wager third graders would understand both.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 2 2022 20:03 utc | 16

excellent overview.. thank you b!

@ 1 jen... thanks..

@ 11 sean... i think the best way to understand events like the usa pulling its diplomatic staff out of kiev is to understand drama and the effect the usa always tries to go for using drama.. it is as if the white house is directly attached to the hollywood script writers agenda... there is little to no separation between them! thus we get this from jen psaki - usa state dept spokesperson - "The White House says it's no longer using the word "imminent" to describe the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine." what kind of stupidity explains the past 2 months of bullshit rhetoric which the msm was happy to peddle? hollywood script writing is the only way to explain it... these folks are complete bozos..

Posted by: james | Feb 2 2022 20:07 utc | 17

@ 15 guest... meanwhile, everyone else can pass the popcorn.... a real hollywood thriller, isn't it?

Posted by: james | Feb 2 2022 20:09 utc | 18

Alas, my comment's being denied despite its lacking any URLs.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 2 2022 20:10 utc | 19

Yep, still being denied despite allowing mine @18. Guess you'll only get to read it in the article I'm composing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 2 2022 20:11 utc | 20

Thank you b. Well crafted overview.

That word "imminent" is an important one. So far as I recall, international law permits the taking of military action if an attack by the other party is "imminent".

How can ANY diplomat abuse and misuse such a word without intending to do so?

THIS is the clownshow that would rule the world.

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 2 2022 20:14 utc | 21

UKUSA-M16 Criminal International Axis. I'm going to have to use that a lot from now on :D

Great post b, thanks. Without this website and the types that sometimes cite it, I'd be utterly clueless, led by the nose about stories of the Dread Lord Putin and armies of skeleton troops, looming from his volcano base in Mordor over the land of the Good and the Brave, effectively.

Posted by: Lonkal | Feb 2 2022 20:15 utc | 22

UKUSA-M16 Criminal International Axis. I'm going to have to use that a lot from now on :D

Great post b, thanks. Without this website and the types that sometimes cite it, I'd be utterly clueless, led by the nose about stories of the Dread Lord Putin and his vile armies of undead skeleton troops, looming from his volcano base in Mordor over the land of the Good and the Brave, effectively.

Posted by: Lonkal | Feb 2 2022 20:19 utc | 23

@15 guest
That's the essence of it

Posted by: ptb | Feb 2 2022 20:25 utc | 24

@2, Echelon and @4 Victor

After a series of Russian warnings, and in the face of continued attempts to target Russian forces in Syria - with media prep to turn Russian opinion against Putin, a western 'coordination' center in N Syria was hit by Russian bombs killing 30+ US, UK, Fr, Is, and other assorted special forces. The targeted attacks on Russians stopped.

Given the distance from home and stakes involved this would be bigger and better.

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 2 2022 20:34 utc | 25

Figured I'd share this here rather than the O/T since it's pretty much on-topic.

"Navalny, the Documentary" reviewed: https://yasha.substack.com/p/navalny-the-documentary?

This is a rare instance of me sharing a link that I haven't fully read/listened to yet, so YMMV.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 2 2022 20:36 utc | 26

Posted by: james | Feb 2 2022 20:07 utc | 16

Astute, that is what it is, all show business, all the time. And that's all they know too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 2 2022 20:38 utc | 27

In an attempt to prevent the alliance of Germany and Russia from dominating Europe, the US is trying the Ukraine gambit with 3 objectives. The first one, disrupting good news coming out of the Beijing Olympics, is looking increasingly unlikely as time is running out. The other two, stopping Nord Stream 2 and applying sanctions on Russia possibly including removal from SWIFT, are still in play. I assume that with Russia increasingly pushed to ally with China, Putin and Xi will give a combined strategic response after their meeting at the Winter Olympics. Pass the popcorn, please!

Posted by: Tiger | Feb 2 2022 20:39 utc | 28

..If a Russian build-up and invasion threat were totally false, the natural course of action for Russia would be to present evidence privately to the European governments with which it has close trade relations..." Sean @11

That is exactly what did happen. As a result of which France, Italy and probably Germany too are going to be negotiating on their own account with Russia. The US has been asking too much of its NATO "allies" and they have finally begun to say NO. Negotiations under the Normandy format are due next week and the US is not invited.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 2 2022 20:40 utc | 29

@ 26 bemildred.. thanks... i was at a music performance last week of some friends that were performing on a large stage- a type of talent night thing with a bunch of different young singers... you could tell which one of the 8 or 9 singers had gone to acting class and all the rest who hadn't... the movements and mannerisms by this one particular singer definitely added to the show, but in terms of singing, nothing changed... they were all talented in their own way, but the fellow with the acting training used the usual tricks to enhance their performance... some people overlook this, or never think about anything like this.. meanwhile one fellow had a superman type cape on... he was definitely the most fun and engaging, but aside from the costume prop, they were all on a similar level singing wise... i enjoyed the guy with the cape the most! it was as they say " entertaining"... treating usa foreign policy in the same way is beyond ludicrous..

Posted by: james | Feb 2 2022 20:43 utc | 30

Three articles (placed one above the other.) That go a long way to explaining the Zionist/Neocon part of the affair (following on from b's article above vis Nuland/Kagan and family).
First one is mainly "historical".

https://israelpalestinenews.org/the-israel-factor-in-neocons-anti-russia-warmongering-over-ukraine/
****

It leads into the questions of the Iran, Russian - China axis. As I think that is where we will see the centre of "action" move to. Not necessarily military but commercial activity to EXCLUDE the US (in it's turn!) from the Eurasian landmass. Ukraine may only be the starting point for a new awareness about capabilities and aims of the leading protagonists.

Note that the US is scrambling to make "contracts" with Japan, Gulf States et al for Oil and Gas, all around the Eurasian Landmass Economic Area. (ELEA)

"Biden admin has reached out to Japan, South Korea, India as well as China in its quest to find extra fuel for allies in Europe if a conflict over Ukraine erupts, US working with companies and govts. They’re in touch with Nigeria, Egypt, Libya".

Although they say it is "for their allies in Europe", why are the EU not doing this as well? Why wait for US "Salvation". ie. It is more like the US is grabbing all sources of energy available, to "protect" the US itself (they import also!).
**

(OT; There was a lovely "happening" with two Russian Tu-160 supersonic bombers just losing the F-35's sent to chase them. The F-35's couldn't go faster than Mach 1.2)

**
Sean | Feb 2 2022 19:32 utc | 11

Probably we will see an increase in Donbas defense abilities, so they can go it alone in case of necessity. A drone strike BY the Donbas as a reprisal for one by the Ukies, was announced today. Unexpected loss of "air superiority" by Ukies.
***
Some action is going unreported in the Northern areas. ie. Spy plane circling at probably eye distance from Murmansk this morning. Two US Spy planes "working" out of Lithuania to control the Russian border and St. Petersburg area.

***
REQUEST; Has anyone seen a map of the Ukrainian army positions? (Not just front lines around Donbas) There is a very effctive media blackout.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 2 2022 20:46 utc | 31

What continues to puzzle me is how the collective West still believes in its own false self-importance. As I as it, the West is almost isolated from the rest of the world. The facade of superiority it once enjoyed has dropped. In Syria, in Afghanistan, in Venezuela, in Kazakhstan the whole world is watching how the West and the obsolete NATO are being humiliated by nations less resouceful than Russia, let alone China.

Posted by: Steve | Feb 2 2022 20:46 utc | 32

Worth remembering at this point that Victoria Nuland’s husband is Robert Kagan, enthusiastic neocon and one of the founders of the Project for the New American Century (and didn’t that turn out well?)
Robert’s brother, Frederick, is a senior scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He in turn is married to Kimberley Kagan, founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War.
Is there any other family that has done so much to run US foreign policy into its present morass?

Posted by: Extra | Feb 2 2022 20:49 utc | 33

Doesn't Germany get a say in how many US troops are stationed in its (sovereign) country?!

Posted by: digital dinosaur | Feb 2 2022 20:50 utc | 34

Of course, there is a certain buildup of Russian troops, but even if the claims that there are about 100,000, this is about a tenth of the Russian military and only about half of the number of Ukrainian solders (half of which are near Donbass). The main goal is probably to deter an Ukrainian attack on Donbass, but there are no indications of a planned invasion in Ukraine.

There have been statements from EU governments (and Ukraine!) that they don’t share the US assessment about an alleged Russian invasion.

Posted by: Adrian E. | Feb 2 2022 20:51 utc | 35

@ 20 Jon Cleary

Thanks for that reminder on the implications of 'imminent'.

Is it the basis for the pre-emptive attack in US military doctrine?

I wonder what off the book 'technical' demo the Russians deployed to encourage that change? Couldit be the sudden, total shutdown of all electrical systems on the Aussie ship off Tonga? An unnoticed submarine demo of an EMP device?

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 2 2022 20:51 utc | 36

Sean at 11

"Try as I might I don't understand the Russian game plan."

Your post has raised some excellent points and questions.

My best guess is the following:

On a diplomatic level the U.S. appears to have rejected Russia's core demands but it also seems willing to engage with some of Russia's concerns like--non-deployment of offensive missiles and the issue of permanent forces in Ukraine, strategic bombers not flying too close to each others territories, and a readiness to discuss INF-range systems in some type of strategic stability dialogue.

Yet simultaneously Russia, on the military deployment front, seems to now be involved in increasing the presence of its personnel at baeses that hold pre-positioned equipment--especially Rosguardia personnel (national guard and counter-insurgency forces. Such forces could be used in some kind of ground occupation.

Posted by: Gulag | Feb 2 2022 21:02 utc | 37

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 2 2022 21:04 utc | 38

wobblie @12:

You seem to forget how Molotov-Ribbentrop came about. In the runup to Munich in 1938, the USSR was quite firm on not giving in Hitler's demands, and had promised the British and French and the Little Entente (Poland, Czecheslovakia and Romania) its support in any war with Nazi Germany.

Not only did the British and French sell out the Czechs sold out at Munich, Poland broke up the Little Entente and received a small portion of formerly Czech territory for doing so.

From this, Stalin concluded that the British and French were hoping that the USSR was the real target of the British and French, and that they were hoping that Hitler could be persuaded to focus his attentions eastward. In other words, the intended outcome of Munich was "let's you and him fight!"

In order to forestall this possibility, the USSR entered Molotov-Ribbentrop, which alarmed the British and French and brought Nazi Germany back into their focus.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 2 2022 21:05 utc | 39

digital dinosaur | Feb 2 2022 20:50 utc | 33 "Doesn't Germany get a say in how many US troops are stationed in its (sovereign) country?!"

A few years back when Japan started re-arming, they had to get US permission. Stuff to do with treaties and its constitution. Germany and perhaps Italy I think are in the same position.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 21:06 utc | 40

Oops sorry for the glitch

Re @35
"A massive electrical power failure has halted the HMAS Adelaide during its humanitarian mission to Tonga.

The ship was left “stranded” for a period of time due to the total power failure and is still experiencing external communications issues despite power now being restored.

Most of the ship’s crew are reportedly sleeping “above deck” due to the power issues."

Pride of the fleet a sitting duck

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 2 2022 21:07 utc | 41

To add to the points I made @28.
Macron is facing a long election campaign in which at least two of his likely challengers are calling for better relations with Russia and China and French independence in Foreign Policy.
In Germany it is likely to be industry calling for the same-good relations and trade with Russia and the low energy prices that Nordstream promises.
In Italy new talks on Russian gas imports are already planned.
It is not coincidental that the current crisis coincides with rapidly diminishing gas reserves in the coldest season of the year. And the US has absolutely nothing to offer as a substitute for Russian energy- which can very easily find a market in Asia if Europe prefers.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 2 2022 21:08 utc | 42

@Sean | Feb 2 2022 19:32 utc | 11

There is a logical leap in this blog post that doesn’t make sense to me. If a Russian build-up and invasion threat were totally false, the natural course of action for Russia would be to present evidence privately to the European governments with which it has close trade relations.

You forget that logic and evidence means nothing to the western 'leaders', that phase is long behind us. This is a post truth world.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 2 2022 21:13 utc | 43

"...the most severe strategic error the U.S. could make"

The USA will loose it's empire if it continues to coddle the Potomac's perfumed princesses/princes vanities. I love my country, it's too bad our "leaders" love themselves [and their fortunes] far more than their country. US Sanctions against Russia has only strengthened the Russ and sent them into the outstretched arms of the Han empire. DC is full of effing idiots.

As I have said in jest before, if the Ruskies were to formulate a military "decapitation" of DC's elite, the American Citizenry would be indebted to the Russian Military for a well earned surgeon's fee.

Thanks B for the Nuland linkage to Cheney, I was not aware of that particular aspect of that bitches pedigree. Odd isn't it? No wounder Senate & Congressional D's recently honored Cheney as a great statesman.

Yeah..yeah...Trump = Hitler => [Cheney/Bush/] R's + Cheney-esque [Obama/Hillary] D's are the only choice for "decent" people.

Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 2 2022 21:16 utc | 44

Posted by: james | Feb 2 2022 20:07 utc | 16

Astute, that is what it is, all show business, all the time. And that's all they know too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 2 2022 20:38 utc | 26

At the risk of going off-topic I'd like to recount a memory.

It was back in August of 2000. The British were going wild with their celebrations for the 100th birthday of Queen Elizabeth the older. There were all sorts of events and celebrations, but one in particular stayed with me.

She was sitting down, out of doors. Probably in front of Buckingham Palace.
In front of her was a parade of people.
The parade was a celebration of all of the best known shows from Broadway and the West End from the whole 20th Century.
At the time it made no sense to me.

It does now.

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 2 2022 21:19 utc | 45

i wish the prosecution of the Kagan family was imminent.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 2 2022 21:26 utc | 46

Les7

Entire Russian navy puts to sea for 'exercises', an Aussie ship has a massive power failure, Yanks change their tune. Seems a bit much of a coincidence.

karlof1 had been thinking Russia might give a demo of some type of directed energy weapon. A good chance that ship was the demo.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 21:32 utc | 47

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/02/bernhard-of-moa-did-good-write-up.html

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 2 2022 21:36 utc | 48

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/01/this-is-really-peculiar.html

Andrei covered the Aussie warship mishap

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 2 2022 21:38 utc | 49

Les7
Another coincidence also is that just prior, our dipshit politicians had started making loud noises along with the Brits and American on sanctions from hell.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 21:39 utc | 50

US/NATO response is like of a assassin expression desire to sneak into your house during the night to kill you - oh, yea, I am still going in to kill you, but lets negotiate me taking off my muddy shoes at the door, know you hate dirty carpets.

Laughable. US is deranged bunch if they think that will work. It is somewhere between 1999 and Putin's Munich speech that Russia figured it out and started to prepare itself for this moment.

Posted by: Abe | Feb 2 2022 21:41 utc | 51

Seriously?

The professional public relations staff for one of the most powerful offices in the world says they were sending an 'unintended' message with their choice of words.

In other words, Jan Psaki and the White House announce that they are completely incompetent. After all, surely an experienced politician and a professional PR staff be able to know the likely effect of their choice of words?

You don't have to call these people incompetent.... they tell you themselves.

Posted by: Peace | Feb 2 2022 21:46 utc | 52

b noted in his post:

John Kirby said... The troops will operate on a bilateral basis with their host countries, since NATO has not yet activated a multinational response force.

Sounds very much like a FU to NATO and will likely fuel major division within the ranks. But it sure is a sign of the UKUSA desperation to get a war underway.

The collapse of the UKUSA empire is certainly messy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 2 2022 21:46 utc | 53

@ Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 21:32 utc | 46 who wrote
"
Les7
Entire Russian navy puts to sea for 'exercises', an Aussie ship has a massive power failure, Yanks change their tune. Seems a bit much of a coincidence.
karlof1 had been thinking Russia might give a demo of some type of directed energy weapon. A good chance that ship was the demo.
"

That is the only example of that capability that has been reported.....yet

I think other examples have occurred to prove the fragility of the empire military to cause such a public back-off of misrepresentation.

What will be the next move on the chessboard? Will empire try to bully China instead of Russia just to show it can try?....grin

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 2 2022 21:48 utc | 54

the collapse is messy because they are such utter clowns. i just hope they dont drag us in the world war 3.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 2 2022 21:50 utc | 55

Abe "It is somewhere between 1999 and Putin's Munich speech that Russia figured it out and started to prepare itself for this moment."

Putin has said a number times that it was 2002 when US pulled out of the ABM treaty that they began preparing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 21:50 utc | 56

What if that Aussie ship that lost power had been a submarine at the surface. If you were on that submarine, would you want to dive in it after that experience?

It is going to be interesting to learn more about this reported technology.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 2 2022 21:52 utc | 57

Biden is in for a tough time because he's going to have to get a new JCPOA agreement with Iran and most of the Senate won't like it ( being warmongers).

OTOH, one of these days, the China influence thing is going to break into the mainstream media. That could focus attention away from Ukraine.

Finally, there has never been a more practical time for non-aggression treaties - because of technology. Satellites, overflights, the internet, remote sensors and so on. The idea needs to come back.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 2 2022 21:53 utc | 58

So we are informed that the presidents of Italy and France have shared views on 'Ukraine' but we don't have a range of viewpoints on Germany.

It is Germany IMO that needs to come clean on its intentions here or has its coalition government seized up in division?

Can any barfly assist in pointing to dispassionate reporting of the German situation.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 2 2022 21:58 utc | 59

digital dinosaur | Feb 2 2022 20:50 utc | 33

The correct answer is, it is not known officially. Because the Truppenstatute of us army was originally founded as occupation law in the 40ies. They became German law without ever got published. This happened again while German reunification in form of 2+4 contract. In there is written that Truppenstatute will rule on also in future without making the content public. Germany have no jurisdiction at all about premises of us army. You have to unterstand, legally in terms of defense germany is still occupied.

Posted by: rico rose | Feb 2 2022 21:58 utc | 60

@ 46, 49 Peter

It would be even more ominous for the west if it was a Chinese sub doing a favor for an old honored friend

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 2 2022 21:58 utc | 61

@59

Which come to think of it may have been how a US sub hit a mountain in the south China sea

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 2 2022 22:01 utc | 62

I would suggest another possibility that admittedly is hypothetical, but at least plausible, given current circumstances.

Recall that it was only a month ago when Shoigu himself announced that American private military contractors were preparing a chemical weapon attack in Donetsk, with the intent of creating a false flag. Suppose Russian intelligence learned that another false flag was in the works, for example, an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is located about 200 kilometers west of Donbass. (Notice that the US just sent a specialized plane that detects radioactive particles to England, which hasn’t been sent to Europe since the nuclear reactor at Chernobyl exploded in 1986).

Suppose that was the last straw for Russia, because it was clear that the US would continue to persist with aggressive acts until, one way or another, the war the US wants so much was finally started. So, Russia decided enough was enough, it was time to act.

I think that decision has been made, which is why virtually every combat-ready Russian naval vessel is putting out to sea. In the event of a larger conflict, Russia would not want its ships in port. And simultaneously with the entire Russian navy setting sail, we see all the combat-ready forces of the Russian Eastern Military District are being moved en masse by rail and air to Belarus, where they will join forces with the troops of the Western Military District and the Belarusian Armed Forces. And Kiev is 55 miles from the border of Belarus.

As someone else pointed out on MoA, this would have been considered a general mobilization in the early 20th century. I don’t think Russia is planning on just conducting military exercises.

Posted by: Steven Starr | Feb 2 2022 22:02 utc | 63

From Wikipedia (for what it's worth...) regarding the USS Donald Cook, an Arleigh-Burke-class destroyer that got too close for comfort:

"On 11 and 12 April 2016 a pair of Russian Su-24s performed several low-altitude passes on Donald Cook while the ship was conducting exercises with a Polish helicopter in international waters in the Baltic Sea 70 nautical miles (130 km; 81 mi) off Kaliningrad. A Russian Ka-27 "Helix" anti-submarine helicopter also circled the destroyer seven times. The U.S. Navy released photos and videos of the incident on 14 April, and the U.S. government lodged a complaint with the Russian government.[15][16] In response to the U.S. Secretary of State commenting on the incident and saying that "under the rules of engagement, that could have been a shoot-down",[17] the Russian Federation Council's official Igor Morozov said that the U.S. likewise "ought to know that Donald Cook approached our borders and may already be unable to depart those."

The last sentence is crucial: no, it couldn't depart, it had to be towed.

Posted by: RJPJR | Feb 2 2022 22:05 utc | 64

Aussie ship with power outage.

Fuses labeled 'Made in Formosa - quality No.1, 69 amp, slow blow'.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 2 2022 22:05 utc | 65

Feral Finster I understand very well the decision Stalin made. Tactically it might have been justified. Strategically it ultimately cost the Soviet Union millions of lives, turned most of eastern Europe inalterably hostile to Russia and allowed the US to create its post WWII Empire, shutting Russia out of Europe. That decision is now forcing Putin to become a satrap to the CCP. Xi and the CCP are anti-capitalist (that will not sit well with Putin's oligarchic partners). I brought August 23, 1939 up because it was the necessary prelude to the killing. I am sure Stalin never intended his pact with Hitler to result in the creation of a US Empire in Europe. I am sure Putin does not desire that Russia return to its status as a vassal of the Eastern Empire, but that may very well be the consequence.

Posted by: wobblie | Feb 2 2022 22:13 utc | 66

@11 Sean: "If a Russian build-up and invasion threat were totally false, the natural course of action for Russia would be to present evidence privately to the European governments with which it has close trade relations."

I don't much doubt that the Russians did exactly that, and that is precisely why individual European countries like Germany and France (and now Hungary, apparently) are refusing to play their roles.

Sean: "Instead, Russia issued an ultimatum with very ambitious demands."

But those demands were not directed to the European countries that so puzzle you. They were directed towards NATO as an organization, and to the USA as the puppet-master.

Note how Moscow is playing this:
1) the draft treaties were sent to NATO HQ and to Washington, not to individual European states.
2) the letter regarding the OSCE stipulation on indivisible security was sent to individual European states.

Look at the last paragraph of that letter: "We also expect that the response to this letter will be given in the national capacity, as the aforementioned commitments were undertaken by each of our States individually and not within any bloc or in the name thereof"

There should be no puzzlement about what Russia is attempting here: it intends to break NATO apart.

Ambitious, yes. But also quite possible.

Hungary is the first tiny crack so far. But keep an eye out for Germany and (possibly) France. Macron may yet get his European Army.

If Germany shifts then it is Game Over for NATO, and Washington would have achieved a double-whammy own-goal: not only push Russia and China together, but then push a partnership between Russia and Germany.

That would definitely be the time to turn to Nuland and say: "well, that's the way the cookie crumbles".

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Feb 2 2022 22:15 utc | 67

@51 Uncle Tungsten: "Sounds very much like a FU to NATO and will likely fuel major division within the ranks. But it sure is a sign of the UKUSA desperation to get a war underway."

I take it to be a sign that the USA can not get NATO buy-in on these troop movements, so it had to be a bilateral arrangement between USA and each eastern European country.

So someone in NATO (or some group in NATO) is not willing to go along with this charade. Germany, certainly. Possibly France as well.

Russia may well get its way without either of those two draft treaties being agreed to, simply because NATO may soon be a defunct organization.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Feb 2 2022 22:23 utc | 68

"If a Russian build-up and invasion threat were totally false, the natural course of action for Russia would be to present evidence privately to the European governments with which it has close trade relations."

Sean I guess you would have been fully behind the Iraq war as Hussein did not provide evidence to show he did not have WMD. It is five eyes that is screaming Russian invasion and the Europeans aren't buying it, yet you think Russia should show evidence to the Europeans that they don't intend to attack?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 22:29 utc | 69

It took awhile, but what I tried to post @18-19 is now a concise article, "NATO & Outlaw US Empire's Responses Leaked, Lavrov's Letter, & The Real Issue: Unilateralism.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 2 2022 22:29 utc | 70

What is really scarry is that the US is now moving 8,500 US troops to the NATO borders next to Ukraine. Let us imagine what would happen if Russia became sufficiently pissed to actually engage those those troops in real combat. There is no chance that such a small force could possibly prevail against the Red Army.

I nave been reading Andrei Martyanov's articles, and his "Revolution in Military Affairs". If Andrei's assessment is even partially correct then it would mean the those US troops would experience casualties not seen since the war in Vietnam (and possibly much worse). If that should happen then the US may consider the nuclear option.

Those are the possibilities.

Posted by: Toivos | Feb 2 2022 22:31 utc | 71

MoA website is technically fucking-up.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 2 2022 22:41 utc | 72

Excellent analysis. The operative work is lunatics. Deeply entrenched lunatics.

Posted by: circumspect | Feb 2 2022 22:42 utc | 73

Peter AU1

Iraq did provide all the evidence they were able to that they had no weapons of mass destruction. Also there were inspectors on the ground with full access to any location in Iraq. It didn't matter though. The decision had already been made for war, and weapons of mass destruction were just a pretense.

Posted by: Michael Weddington | Feb 2 2022 22:44 utc | 74

Germans are splitted in two uneven groups that exist practically since centuries. The first are the russophobs, the second the russophil. There is almost nothing in between. Barbarossa only have been possible because all russophil was exiled, in concentration camps or silenced through public opinion. I dont see a real chance germany ever attack russia without that conditions. In an more open society you naturally find booth positions everywhere. Also russophil can speak their mind publicly and are able to tame the beast. To be honest, i am not so sure after two years of plandemic propaganda and its effect that it is impossible that germany goes with a plan to go to war with russia, but this will be hard. Extremly. I think germany would split again in east and west instead. But also russophil are not able to stop the constant stream of aggression by the russophob. I am not optimistic about an alliance of germany and russia. You cant imagine the strength of grip of daily propaganda against the east. This is woven in personalities.

Posted by: rico rose | Feb 2 2022 22:53 utc | 75

RE setting standards:

Ultimately, people know which side their bread is buttered on. You cannot ignore the leading technologists, the STEM heavy China & Russia with regard to standards.

Posted by: powerandpeople | Feb 2 2022 19:52 utc | 14

Yes, I think that is very likely, and something they could do, to set exclusionary standards. I think there is already some discussion.

i enjoyed the guy with the cape the most! it was as they say " entertaining"... treating usa foreign policy in the same way is beyond ludicrous..

Posted by: james | Feb 2 2022 20:43 utc | 29

Yes, Peter Lee talks about "caping" too. It is one of the things I look for, and a lack of substance, and a fondness for political cliches. They are all very good at talking forever without saying a thing. But not very good at it, some of them these days, e.g. Psaki.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 2 2022 22:58 utc | 76

Posted by: Michael Weddington | Feb 2 2022 22:44 utc | 72

Hello Michael.

You may not know this, but Sadam Hussein complied with the UN demand for full disclosure, and turned over everything. Everything.

The United States took control of this material.
The United States took out all of those parts it found to be an embarrassment, or simply inconvenient.
It changed some things.
Then it passed on this information to the rest of the Security Council.

To this day, we have no idea of how much of it was true.

That will not work this time.

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 2 2022 23:02 utc | 77

What struck me in all of this nonsense is Nuland's ignorance of the extent of the Chinese/Russia strategic partnership. It's like these idiots live in their own bubble and have no strategic knowledge.

Inasmuch as both Nicaragua and Cuba are part of the Belt and Roads Project, I see it logical that they would be happy, along with Venezuela to refuel Chinese and Russian ships and aircraft, as well as give them lodging when off duty between flights along the US coasts. That would give the US an understanding of "Freedom of Navigation", and "spheres of influence"'

Posted by: Michael.j | Feb 2 2022 23:03 utc | 78

I expect a false flag in Ukranazistan as all but assured: and unlike Pushilin et al I don't think that false flag would involve the Donbass Republics. Far more likely would be Zelensky being Ngo Dinh Diemed by "the Russians", using "Novichok". This would both remove Zelensky, who is beginning to not fall in line behind the war talk like an obedient poodle, as well as use a propaganda point that the brain dead Western masses are already conditioned to believe. Yet another advantage is that - Zelensky being Jewish - Russia can be accused of "anti Semitism", another thing which will turn the Christian zionists in America (at the moment mostly favourable towards Russia) against it. If I were Zelensky I would know my days were numbered.

As for Psaki, has anyone noticed that recent American administrations have made a point of appointing gibbering incompetents as their public mouthpieces? Psaki wouldn't even be able to run a hotel receptionist's desk competently ("oh, your room is cold and the water isn't running? What do you want, champagne?"). What's she doing as the public face of the Bidet administration?

Is this deliberate? Are they so full of arrogance that they no longer care what image they project? Or is it something else?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 2 2022 23:17 utc | 79

The parade was a celebration of all of the best known shows from Broadway and the West End from the whole 20th Century.
At the time it made no sense to me.

It does now.

Posted by: John Cleary | Feb 2 2022 21:19 utc | 44

And that is astute too. A fairy tale all the way. I remember the coronation. The aristocrats are fond of their own little worlds all the way back, but the possibilities are so much greater today.

karlof1 had been thinking Russia might give a demo of some type of directed energy weapon. A good chance that ship was the demo.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 2 2022 21:32 utc | 46

I think there have been several incidents, but no way to be sure out here in TV-land. "Biden" has lost some of his strut. US appears to be still trying to create their own incident, but losing. They will also make nice and stall until they can think up a new "plan".

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 2 2022 23:20 utc | 80

@wobblie

If the CCP is "anti-capitalist" then most countries would want whatever it is that they are.

And if we have learned nothing else about Russia in the last 20 or so year, it is that the state and not the oligarchs are in control.

Of course, if in 1903, you told the average frustrated Russian peasant that in the next fifteen years, the Russian Empire would fight and lose two wars, one to Japan, and undergo two or three revolutions (depending on who's counting), after which there would not longer be a Tsar in St. Petersburg or even a Tsar in Russia at all, the peasant would think you possessed by an unclean spirit.

For that matter, if you told the average frustrated London banker the same thing, he would consider you to be quite mad and also not altogether our sort.

The moral is: long term predictions are hard to make with any degree of accuracy.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 2 2022 23:21 utc | 81

Toivos #69

We are seeing the USA White House psychopaths in action. It is possible the USA troops are being sent there to be attacked under a false flag ambit that is already set up.