Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 24, 2022

Disarming Ukraine

The military of Russia has launched an operation to disarm, and possibly regime change, the Ukraine.

I do understand why Russia is doing this - it is either attack now or defend itself later with way more casualties and the danger of total defeat.

I had hoped though that it would find other methods to protect Russia from further NATO aggression.

In 2014 the U.S. instigated regime change in Kiev and has since controlled the Ukrainian government. It has build up the Ukraine as a base to strangle Russia economically and militarily.

During the last two centuries Russia had to defend itself, with horrific casualties, against two huge invasions from the west. It is understandable that it does not want to repeat that experience. 

It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.


bigger

This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is  under Russian protection.

The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.

Thanks to Stalin's additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine's western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.

I hope for a sharp but short fight which destroys the Ukraine's military capabilities but causes as little casualties and other damages as possible.

It is sad that NATO countries, including mine, did not have the courage to make the necessary concessions to prevent this from happening.

Update:

Putin's speech last night (English version) explains why this is happening.

Posted by b on February 24, 2022 at 7:16 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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The only sad thing about this is that US mass propaganda media turned out to be right.

Posted by: A | Feb 24 2022 7:19 utc | 1

If Russia carves up Ukraine who will be the bagholders for their debts?

Posted by: too scents | Feb 24 2022 7:24 utc | 2

The media on TV have amnesia of the events in 2014 and John McCain’s antics on the ground in Ukraine. They also refuse to acknowledge the neo-Nazi groups and sympathizers in Ukraine

Posted by: K | Feb 24 2022 7:24 utc | 3

Posted by: A
The only sad thing about this is that US mass propaganda media turned out to be right.

Yes, I thought the same thing. Ironically, they are probably super pissed that Putin didn't follow their expectations and escalated way quicker than their expectations.

Hope the operation ends within 2 weeks, 1 month maximum. A full denazification of Ukraine would take way too long, just need to defang them and wait out the collapse.

Posted by: Parabolic | Feb 24 2022 7:28 utc | 4

I am very concerned - Having a grandfather of Ukrainian ethnicity and a grandmother who was Russian - the two countries should have had a relationship like the US and Canada, instead they are at war

The Russians are paranoid about their security - understandable because of history - western politicians cannot understand this and Russian politicians seem to think that it is always 22nd June 1941

However Russian actions today will not contribute to my ancestors country's long term security. I can foresee a lot of damage, economic, cultural and political in the next few decades

The Donbass situation was horrific with a purported European country bombing and shelling it's own citizens- but do two wrongs make a right?

Posted by: Aslangeo | Feb 24 2022 7:34 utc | 5

Still being shocked by this attack, RU really dont need attack Ukraine before Ukraine attack RU, just protect DNR and LNR is OK, I dont know whats the stimulation.

Posted by: Russell | Feb 24 2022 7:36 utc | 6

@too scents | Feb 24 2022 7:24 utc | 2

"If Russia carves up Ukraine who will be the bagholders for their debts?"

The idiots who loaned them the digital-fiat money in the first place. It's called country risk and interest rates should have covered it. It has mostly been stolen by the types of rodents that flew their private jets out last week.

So, who cares?
It was all imaginary in any case and nobody owes nothing to anybody, ... (I think that makes complex sense?).

Posted by: imo | Feb 24 2022 7:36 utc | 7

Can see the trollbots swarming out to condemn Russia for finally doing the right thing that they didn't do back in 2014.

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 24 2022 7:43 utc | 8

Total failure by the "west". Operation Barbarossa 2.0 failed just like the first one.

I hope for truth about MH17 after this. I also hope the pink areas will be realized as independent Novorossia, but it must be after the locals initiate that.

The world is changing. NATO must dissolve.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 24 2022 7:44 utc | 9

Ah, it's not an 'invasion'; it's an 'operation'. Right, right. Of course.

As elected, not an ounce of introspection or retraction from b.

Posted by: Ben | Feb 24 2022 7:44 utc | 10

why only kiev? i'm praying the west will interfere and see russian missiles fying and igniting over london and D.C.

Posted by: andreweed | Feb 24 2022 7:44 utc | 11

Regime change makes no sense as a government requires legitimacy from the ruled. You will risk having to support such a new regime. Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. You risk getting sucked into expensive commitments for many years if not decades.

Do what NATO did to Serbia and let the population unhappy with a lost war try to replace the government.

Posted by: Poul | Feb 24 2022 7:45 utc | 12

Military technical steps is what Russia warned would follow if US-MATO ignored Russias security demands.
Military technical steps are now being taken. I suspect the anglozionist pain dial will go off the scale in the not-too-distant future..

Posted by: TEP | Feb 24 2022 7:48 utc | 13

If you're familiar with Strelkov then you'd be cheering this Russian effort to denazify Country 404.

He pushed for this right at the start but was forced by Putin to resign and be a hermit.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/11/21/russias-igor-strelkov-i-am-responsible-for-war-in-eastern-ukraine-a41598

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 24 2022 7:49 utc | 14

Thanks for the follow up posting b

I am curious like too scents | Feb 24 2022 7:24 utc | 2 and imo | Feb 24 2022 7:36 utc | 7 about the big picture financial implications.

These are the sorts of events that the elite take advantage of to further their power/control goals. Just like Russia and China have plans, empire has plans as well and financial collapse like we might see that effects the bottom 99.9 % has to be in their play book.

I continue to be dismayed that very few of us talk about Hand, The Invisible and the civilization war about his future. I guess I just hope we get there at some point.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 24 2022 7:49 utc | 15

A week ago this was far from certain. The US is the party responsible for turning a frozen conflict into this. We would have been sitting here in 2032 discussing the same frontline in the Donbas, except for those who demanded decades happen in weeks.

Posted by: Cesare | Feb 24 2022 8:01 utc | 16

Sadly raw force is the only language the neoliberal Empire understands.
Strangely Ukraine volunteered to be the punching bag.

Posted by: Robert Macaire | Feb 24 2022 8:01 utc | 17

When you thought Russia could not sink even more they go do this.

Obviously Russia and Putin has lost it completely, Putin is digging his own grave by this obvious warcrime. Most likely the end of Putin himself.
What is telling is that Russia obviously lied all along about not invading Ukraine and the warnings by the US, Nato was after all correct intelligence.

If not Putin himself are killed, he turned Russia to a complete failure for years to come by this act that makes no sense strategically only a total loss in every aspect you can imagine.

Posted by: Zanon | Feb 24 2022 8:04 utc | 18

I can’t help reflect on Putin’s comment some years ago, that when a street fight is inevitable, strike first. This was it. The Minsk Agreement is being put into place with autonomy for the Russian-speaking republics minus the Ukrainian confederation part.

The demilitarization is obvious and underway. I am less clear on what the de-nazification entails. Chrystia Freeland must be in hysterics hovering over her eye of a newt and toe of a frog witches brew.

Posted by: Moses22 | Feb 24 2022 8:05 utc | 19

they kept poking the bear and the bear poked back. people talking about 2 wrong, this is a response to decades of provocation and encircling.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 8:06 utc | 20

The only one who's done is Zelensky. For better or worse, the political status quo in the Ukraine is finished.

Posted by: Cesare | Feb 24 2022 8:06 utc | 21

It seems Ukraine fired upon Russia first. That’s what set Russia off

Posted by: Mel | Feb 24 2022 8:06 utc | 22

Whatever the politics or rightness or wrongness, you've been telling us that invasion fears were all propaganda for weeks. You must admit you were colossally wrong!

Posted by: John | Feb 24 2022 8:08 utc | 23

@14 Poul

Regime change makes no sense as a government requires legitimacy from the ruled. You will risk having to support such a new regime. Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. You risk getting sucked into expensive commitments for many years if not decades.

Yes, this is what I fear too ... a remake of Afghanistan 1979 (and prompted by the Deep State in much the same way).

The hypocrisy of the talking heads (nodding dogs?) put forward by the BBC continues to cause irritation and stress, but as with everything continued exposure provides an increasing level of immunity.

Posted by: echelon | Feb 24 2022 8:08 utc | 24

The most informed western-based Russia observers believed a cautious meticulous attitude on behalf of Russia would continue and this has proved incorrect.

The "imminent invasion" was predicted for months. The predictors did absolutely nothing to prevent or mitigate the invasion. It appears the invasion was their intended outcome and their response to the invasion was the substance of their foreign policy positions. This renewed Cold War is and was the plan.

Posted by: jayc | Feb 24 2022 8:10 utc | 25

There is a possibility that, in this twisted reality, Russia's move has come as a surprise even to Blinken and Nuland themselves. Looking at the US media yesterday, treating the troops entering Donbas as the invasion they had been hyping up, it may look like they were clueless.

The invasion is undoubtedly unprecedented. It does seem that, contrary to the mainstream analysis, yesterday's decision regarding NS2 could have been fateful, and the Stavka have decided they have had enough. The aim here would be to get Americans out of Ukraine for good. It looks a bit like Maidan in reverse.

One can only hope that it will be reminiscent of the Georgian War and will not last long.

Posted by: Joe Kay | Feb 24 2022 8:12 utc | 26

John, have you ever heard of a self fulfilling prophecy? for decades the U.S. and NATO have been conducting a slow motion attack against Russia, in the past couple of months they have ramped it up with continued threats to Russia's homeland, and you just airily dismiss all this to pretend the Empire propaganda was "right all along".

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 8:16 utc | 27

OK, so we are witnessing clock going backwards toward times of before USSR. Decommunization, Ukies wanted it they will get it. Only borders were whole lot of different then.

Posted by: Abe | Feb 24 2022 8:19 utc | 28

Joe Kay -29

Yes, I think “Biden” & the War Machine have been caught flatfooted. They didn’t expect this. They were hoping for some half measure which would justify more sanctions and to kill NS2. Turns out, the Russians meant it when they said they “didn’t give a sh1t about sanctions”.

For those posting that see the Western predictions about an invasion were correct - well, they became a self-fulfilling prophecy. NATO and Empire looking pretty feeble and ineffectual right now. Worse than the retreat from Kabul.

Posted by: Moses22 | Feb 24 2022 8:22 utc | 29

hug your loved ones, keep them close. the e.u. sanctions announced are designed to collapse the russian economy by severing all access to e.u. capital markets. putin may respond with a final ultimatum for u.s. withdrawal from eastern europe or war. the final act.

Posted by: line islands | Feb 24 2022 8:23 utc | 30

Why are you so shocked? Putin came out and said in so many words that Ukraine has no right to exist as a separate nation.

My only surprise was at how suddenly he escalated it to full-scale war and not just a border dispute. But I guess he wants to avoid a drawn-out war of attrition - so he can turn his gaze to his next expansion into territories he claims have no right to exist independently.

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Feb 24 2022 8:26 utc | 31

@line islands 33

Nah - hug your loved one’s anyway. But sanctions are not going to be something Russia cannot weather. In fact they will hurt Europe much more.

This is a meticulous surgical exercise.

Posted by: Moses22 | Feb 24 2022 8:28 utc | 32

NUCLEAR ARMED UKRAINE
That was the threat. That was the tripwire.
Still basking in the glow of his centre stage, leading role at Munich Security Conference, Zelensky went home to Kiev and upped the ante.
The Bucharest agreement should be revised and Ukraine should rearm itself with nukes.
Putin said in his “””rambling””” speech Ukraine had the skillset and existing Soviet missiles to feasibly regain its nuclear capability.
That was the proverbial “last straw”.

All this howling about Russia taking this action.
And yet. The US would not allow nukes in Cuba 60-odd years ago.
Britain would not tolerate nukes in a hostile Scotland or lreland.
Russia has established the legal precedent and is acting within international law.

We have to hope like hell the crazies in the pentagon basement don’t decide to “double down”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 24 2022 8:29 utc | 33

The Ukrainian tussle is having an effect on prices.

LME aluminium hits record high as Ukraine invasion fuels supply fears ==> https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lme-aluminium-nickel-firm-russia-ukraine-tensions-escalate-2022-02-24/

Nickle and Helium too.

The West is losing pricing power.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 24 2022 8:29 utc | 34

lofl Ralf you mean so he can concentrate on thwarting NATO's and the U.S.'s reaction to thwarting their attempted attack.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 8:30 utc | 35

"Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge."
Completely wrong.
The whole point of the exercise that begun in 2014 if not in 2005 or 1991 or 1945 is to move NATO border further east.
It's not about any urge. It's about a long-term plan. The result will be similar to North/East Syria situation.
Don't think Poland will have anything to say about core Banderistan, err, I meant west part of Ukraine, being carved. If anything, Poland will be left with mess to clean up which will be by orders of magnitude worse than integrating DDR into Germany. Maybe Hungary will actually profit and less likely Romania.

Posted by: pppp | Feb 24 2022 8:31 utc | 36

From the previous thread...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBtxiBehhgc
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 24 2022 7:37 utc | 470

Thanks for that clip U.T. Here's a quote from that @6:45 “The people here who defended Donbass for all these 8 years were
also defending Russia and by extension the future of humanity.”

Re all the neocon crap about how getting rid of Saddam made the world a better place - THIS is how you make the world a better place.

Much thanks for the great coverage by YourMom, Sushi, and others. And also to b for this place to stay in touch with reality.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 24 2022 8:33 utc | 37

John @26

Things change and events on the ground can move faster and less predictably than analysts with limited access to all the facts (especially behind the scene) have. b was hardly alone in calling the invasion unlikely as indeed it did not seem to be in Russia's best interests. Alexander mercouris, and to some extent, the saker, were in the same boat.

Yes, it looked like a trap set by the collective West. And yes, Russia tried everything possible to get them to de-escalate. However, the neocons pushing the Ukienazi battalions would not cease pushing and indeed kept escalating. The situation along the Contact line became unbearable just over the past 2 weeks, and let us not forget that in Russia they saw lots of news and views and sad stories from those regions. Furthermore, the idiot US + Nato allies started imposing sanctions before Russia did anything at all. They demanded that Russia effectively withdraw from its own territory. Well, that was not going to happen.

The reality is that "Biden" was a cooked goose and the events in Canada captured much attention around the world (even in Israel they had an anti-mandate protest. A big one too). "Biden" et al (cf, the ones behind him) kept upping the ante and far from negotiating in good faith insisted on "stopping NS2" etc etc. Even as they moved bigger and more dangerous weapons into Ukraine.

Yesterday's sanctions were the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back. In a way, Russia had nothing to lose any longer as the propaganda war went into full gear.

Over the past 2 weeks b, like Alex started shifting their reading of the chess board. That's exactly what good analysts should do - events don't stand still, and what was true 2 weeks ago was no longer so just last week. Analysts, good ones, must be prepared for some flexibility in their positions (unlike most US and western Russophobic 'analysts"). They are not delphi Oracles and they call it as they see it, when they see it.

BTW, for myself, I happen to believe two additional things may have moved Putin in the direction they have gone:

1. Intelligence we may not be privy to about certain additional armanents, EW and military forces being moved into the Ukraine, equipment considered to be far more dangerous than previous ones. IOW, it was a creeping stealth movement of NATO recognizing ukrain as a de jure member.

2. The nasty/petty/disgusting reaction in the entire west to the doping scandal of the Russian skater and its aftermaths. The facts have not even been established when the knives came out. In Russia where sports are important this got full play and the populace was utterly disgusted. I happen to think this whole affaire, that's still not over, has strengthened Putin's hand insofar as gaining public support for kicking Russia's tormentors' collective behinds.

Posted by: Merlin2 | Feb 24 2022 8:33 utc | 38

Ukraine is claiming to have shot down 5 Russian jets and a helicopter in Luhansk.

There will be all kinds of bullshet and propaganda hitting our screens starting today.

Truth is the first casualty of war.

We are heading into a shitstorm of deception. What I most hate and fear. Damn.

I'm 100% Team Russia on this.

Posted by: Circe | Feb 24 2022 8:35 utc | 39

I find this old homily highly apropos given current situation:

"it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."

-- Henry Kissinger

How true this has proven to be, again and again.

Perhaps the international community will pause to reflect on their current allegiances and ask themselves if it's truly worth the risk of being America's friend vs. being more neutral instead.

I suspect the next decade will see a rapid cooling down of risky allegiances from the side of America's current allies ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 24 2022 8:37 utc | 40

pretzelattack | 30
Agree and Putin said in December when he sent the draft treaties to the U$A and NATO.
“We are within our borders. We have nowhere else to retreat”.
And “we are not the ones thousands of kilometres outside our borders. We threaten no one”.
But the zoo-nogs had to have one more poke at the bear’s ribs.
At the moment the bear if on its hind legs snarling.
NATO and U$A better make a retreat now, or have their face ripped off.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 24 2022 8:38 utc | 41

Boris Rozhin:

It’s important to remember that this is not a war with the goal of capturing territory—this is a war with the goal of de-Nazification of the Ukraine and installation on its territory of a regime that is not hostile to Russia, that won’t present a threat either to Russia or its own [Ukrainian] residents.

Posted by: S | Feb 24 2022 8:40 utc | 42

Thank you V. Putin and team - never give nazis a break. May peace return to all the people in those decommunisted provinces ;)

I hear there is a cosy house awaiting Zelensky in Salisbury UK. Previous occupant clean and tidy. Guaranteed chemical free throughout.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 24 2022 8:41 utc | 43

Number 22? nazis? Putin said “we know the names of the Nazis and what they have done”. Maybe a kill -list of named Nazis responsible for war- crimes, most famously Maidan Square and Odessa Union. Just like Israel did after the Munich Olympics? I wonder how many of them flew out -of the Ukraine- secretly in those VIP jets with the oligarchs?

Posted by: Trumpeter | Feb 24 2022 8:44 utc | 44

I don't know what to think about... it. I don't know what "it" even is. Time will tell, hopefully. Maybe it's capitalism restart time, long overdue, by large scale wars.

Posted by: Tapio | Feb 24 2022 8:46 utc | 45

The Yellow Section in the middle was I think 'Kievan Rus' which was ethnically linguistically Russian.

The Green Section contains Galicia in the West - Catholic not Orthodox, heavily Ukrainian - a Slavic language peppered with Lithuanian and Polish words from being under those Kingdoms in past centuries.

So the likely new nation of Novorossiya will include some if not all of the Yellow as well as the Green.
This will essentially be same as it was in the Russian Tsarist Empire.

Czechoslovakia did the separation relatively amicably.
Yugoslavia did it long and bloody.
Hopefully this divorce can be swift and loss of life kept to a minimum.

Reports already that Kharkov surrendered without a fight.
The Russians bombed the Ukrainian military facilities on city outskirts, those loyal to Ukraine fled and the vast bulk of the population welcomed or at least didn't do anything to stop the Russian army.

Posted by: PJB | Feb 24 2022 8:47 utc | 46

If Ukraine kicked this off with more shelling, I won't be reading about it in the MSM.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 8:47 utc | 47

Excellent analisys as usual b, congrats.

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya

Makes a lot of sense, an independent country that joins the Union State, Putin and Luka can then retire and a new era starts without the illusion of full spectrum dominance by anybody. Eight years is an extremely long time, people in Donbass will be able to resume their lives. Let us hope for the best.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 24 2022 8:48 utc | 48

As the 2014 Ukraine was run from the American embassy, they could have kept the conflict frozen for decades by clamping down on the neo nazi influence. They must have known that by sending billions of armaments and dialing up the information warfare, they would eventually trigger Russian response. Zelensky was unhappy about it. The US didn’t plan to fight. What’s the plan? Complete cutoff of Russia from Europe (Germany)?

Posted by: RJB | Feb 24 2022 8:48 utc | 49

Paul Robinson for one has had enough.

Regular readers will know that I have been decidedly sceptical of the idea that the Russian Federation is about to launch a full-fledged assault on the Ukraine. To be quite frank, I don’t want to believe it, as it would be an act of criminal folly – both criminal and folly, to be precise.

It would also be a humanitarian tragedy, as such an assault could not but result in a large amount of completely unnecessary death and destruction. Let us be quite clear, if it happens, I will condemn it totally and unreservedly. At that point, I will terminate this blog, as its mission to contribute to more rational discussion of both Russia and foreign policy in general will have failed absolutely and without any hope of redemption for many a year.

And with that final flourish, off he went. Pity.


Posted by: echelon | Feb 24 2022 8:50 utc | 50

RJB "The US didn’t plan to fight. What’s the plan? Complete cutoff of Russia from Europe (Germany)?"

Yep. I had thought the US would Have to bomb Kiev themselves to cut Europe off from Russia. I actually thought Russia would get caught with that. Perhaps they also thought that too and thought well if we're going to get the blame, we may as well do the job properly.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 8:56 utc | 51

Surferket @10

Are they really trolls, or isn't that just the regular commentariat here now?

b only has himself to blame. The comments here have gone down the toilet since vk was banned.

Posted by: Ghan-buri-Ghan | Feb 24 2022 8:56 utc | 52

mig41 Telegram channel:

Comrades living in the Ukraine! Brothers and sisters! Be careful! But carefully, preferably using paper, start compiling the lists of local neo-Nazis.

Not the ATO soldiers—ATO soldiers will be granted full amnesty.
Not the stupid vyshyvanka patriots—we will even give them a bonus payment.
Not the politicians yelling at Putin on TV—they will simply not be allowed on TV anymore.

Make the lists of local committed neo-Nazis—those who worship SS Division Galicia, Wolfsangel, and swastika.

We are ALREADY coming for them!

Posted by: S | Feb 24 2022 8:57 utc | 53

pretzelattack 50 "If Ukraine kicked this off with more shelling, I won't be reading about it in the MSM."

They did start heavy shelling before the Russian attack, but by then their fate was already decided anyway.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 8:59 utc | 54

Moscow & St. Petersburg exchanges have called off all trading, but not before the ruble crashed some 10%:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/24/russian-ruble-crashes-as-putin-launches-military-action-against-ukraine-a76551

Stock index is down 45%:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/24/russias-stocks-crash-44-central-bank-unveils-emergency-support-a76554

This just in from Intel Slava, ~10:30, Kievan time:
"Attention! Officials who allowed the distribution of weapons to the civilian population of Kiev will be tried by a military tribunal as war criminals and shot on sight"

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2022 9:00 utc | 55

This is the real master of the Nazis over there.

https://www.rt.com/news/nuland-phone-chat-ukraine-927/

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 24 2022 9:03 utc | 56

@Peter AU1, well their fate was decided when NATO and the U.S. ignored all last second attempts by Putin to negotiate, and ignored Zelensky's attempt to calm things down.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 9:05 utc | 57

Apologies if already posted. Putins speech this morning re the ongoing situation in Ukraine - http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

Posted by: pete middleton | Feb 24 2022 9:07 utc | 58

oops, just noticed the update by B in op :)

Posted by: pete middleton | Feb 24 2022 9:10 utc | 59

Seems like a military operation.
NATO sends all this military $hit to Ukraine.
Russia says get that $hit away from here.
NATO doubles down with an intensified media and sanctions war.
Russia has no intention of getting bogged down in a protracted, resource sucking, endeavor.
Hulk smash.
I wish that there wouldn’t have to be all of the loss of innocent life, and livelihood.
If some a$$hole from out of town, starts sending weapons to the neighbors that you’re feuding with.
And, then tells the whole world, that you’re a baby raper, and worse.
At what point do you go take away those weapons, and smash them, and burn down your enemy’s house?
Seems less provocative than building aircraft hangers, and space exploration facilities, (rockets), in places like Cuba, or Mexico, or Venezuela......
Lots of “I told you sos”, and “yer so stoopids” going around.
My Chrystal balls and seldom right, and Mr. Putin wasn’t offering me any insider trading info.
I’m not ahead of the game like some insightful folks.
What were Russia’s better options?

Posted by: $outhpaw | Feb 24 2022 9:12 utc | 60

This disarmament is going to be so much more impactful than the evacuation from Afghanistan.

Many many deluded Westerners are about to wake up to the fact that crow is not delicious.

Worse than the defeat in Vietnam.

A new world order has begun.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 24 2022 9:12 utc | 61

The Saker nailed it, bang-on-the-money with yesterday's prediction that Russia would be initiating forceful disarmament of Ukraine some time "in the next couple of days."

In one part of this Saker article he reports that:

...the Russian Investigative Committee has declared that Russia knows, by name, all the folks who on the Ukie side gave orders to shell the LDNR. There are already over 400 criminal cases opened for warcrimes, including 85 top Ukronazi officials

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2022 9:12 utc | 62

NATO's on life-support, from here on out.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2022 9:13 utc | 63

A toast and farewell to Moon of Alabama. Once the hot Eurasian War starts, the internet will be cut off.

When NATO and Russia start shooting down each other's aircraft over Russia's advance towards Poland's border, tactical nuclear weapons will be used stop Russia's invasion. Within an hour to avoid their loss; the ICBMs will be launched. Russia and the USA have together 3200 deployed nuclear weapons.

The greedy psychotics who got the world into this situation are so detached from reality that they simply cannot backdown and save western civilization.

While waiting for apocalypse now, neither side gives a damn for ill, freezing, frighten and maimed people stuck in the middle.

Posted by: VietnamVet | Feb 24 2022 9:15 utc | 64

PJB 49

In the 1600's that yellow patch would have been the Zoroastrian cossacks.
From wikipedia. This Ukraine shit is as bad as israel in wikipedia but this is probably close to history. I think it was called the Zaporozhian Sich.

The conflict was triggered by the Khmelnytsky Rebellion of Zaporozhian Cossacks against the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Cossack leader, Bohdan Khmelnytsky, derived his main foreign support from Alexis of Russia and promised his allegiance in recompense.

Although the Zemsky Sobor of 1651 was poised to accept the Cossacks into the Moscow sphere of influence and to enter the war against Poland–Lithuania, the Tsar waited until 1653, when a new popular assembly eventually authorized the protectorate of Ukraine with Tsardom of Russia. After the Cossacks ratified the agreement at the Pereyaslav Council, the Russo–Polish War became inevitable.
"The conflict was triggered by the Khmelnytsky Rebellion of Zaporozhian Cossacks against the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Cossack leader, Bohdan Khmelnytsky, derived his main foreign support from Alexis of Russia and promised his allegiance in recompense.

Although the Zemsky Sobor of 1651 was poised to accept the Cossacks into the Moscow sphere of influence and to enter the war against Poland–Lithuania, the Tsar waited until 1653, when a new popular assembly eventually authorized the protectorate of Ukraine with Tsardom of Russia. After the Cossacks ratified the agreement at the Pereyaslav Council, the Russo–Polish War became inevitable."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 9:16 utc | 65

OMG. Putin is REALLY PISSED OFF.

Posted by: Tapio | Feb 24 2022 9:20 utc | 66

@echelon, 27, & @poul, 14:

Yes, this is what I fear too ... a remake of Afghanistan 1979 (and prompted by the Deep State in much the same way).

I don't think this is really anything to be feared, frankly. Russia will destroy all the weapons (and likely any nuclear equipment that can be used to create a bomb--unless those are in the Novorossiyan region) and stay just long enough to allow the Ukrainian people to put in a new government. All the leaders of the Ukronazis and the oligarchs who backed them will be rounded up, shuffled off to Russia, and then war crimes trials will be held and then it's off to the gulag they go, never to be seen or heard from for at least a decade or two.

With western Ukraine fully demilitarized, there's no need for Russia to do anything except call new elections. I suspect Russia doesn't really care if there's a "friendly" government in Kiev, but if it does then it'll just vet the candidates and reject any it finds unsuitable. the Ukrainians get their new government, and Russia leaves.

That's what the US did with Serbia after violently breaking off Kosovo from it, right? Ukraine's a basket-case, sure, but it's not nearly as crazy as Afghanistan is.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2022 9:22 utc | 67

Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2022 9:12 utc | 65

I had thought that was the most accurate analysis out of those I read over the last few days.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 9:23 utc | 68

Well the USA wanted a war and now they've got it, its unfortunate but I can understand why it has come to this with regards to Putin's all out action, aided by the weak puppet Zelensky, the best we can hope for it to limit civilian casualties. Hungary will definitely want to snap up land it lost a fair bit after the Great war.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 24 2022 9:24 utc | 69

The Russian government decision for a limited strike precision preemptive attack only on the military object at the outskirts of some cities is a very rational and proportionate one . The Anglo-Saxon intelligence was once again caught sleeping on the wheel . Putin :" You didn't want to listen then , but you will listen now. I know for sure , Chinese will respect Russia much more because of this , Kazakhstan and Belorussia actions.

Posted by: tony | Feb 24 2022 9:28 utc | 70

@Malchik Ralf | Feb 24 2022 8:26 utc | 34

"My only surprise was at how suddenly he escalated it to full-scale war and not just a border dispute."

You obviously have not read his St Petersburg doctrine: "Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one rule: if a fight is inevitable you have to strike first."

Posted by: imo | Feb 24 2022 9:29 utc | 71

I looked through Scott Ritter's Twitter and found this...

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

Accurate and presient

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 24 2022 9:29 utc | 72

This is a "Military Operation" and not an "Invasion". The difference may sound slight but it indicates how todays' operation may play out.

Only today?
Note, a) The speed and timing of the start. Reputedly Russians started moving exactly at the end of the (probably pre recorded) Speech at 5h40.
b) Most of -but possibly all - Airforce, airfields, Command centres were hit in the first hour. Amazingly quick ! (The major Ukrainian Command centre was comprehensively wiped out by - not by the Russians - but either the LPR or DPR. Leaving those "Regular" Ukes around Donbass without any centralized command centre.
c) Bridges and military bases. Hit.
d) Lots of bridging equipment seen and Crimea has already had it's water supply reinstated.
e) Humanitarian corridors have been established for those Uke soldiers that lay down their arms. The have been promised that they will NOT be harmed, (Probable as Putin doesn't like unecessary deaths as they become rallying points at later dates) and many seem to have already done so. Previous "tweets" from the Russian side mentioned separating the "people from the "regime". Personnally I don't give much chance to those who continue fighting - Mercenaries (incl. Blackwater), Azovists and assorted Jihadists. Apparently LPR and DPR are to look after the Ukes around Donbas - preventing them from regrouping and being useful elsewhere.
f) A landing has been reported near Odessa, and the Azov sea (with Uke ports having been squelched) has been declared a no-sail area (something on those lines, precise wording unknown)
******
OK. That will do for this morning.

However, my earlier idea points to an enlargment on a permanent basis of Lukansk and Donbas. Certain points will NOT be handed back to Ukraine (ie. Crimea water supply. I doubt that Odessa and the US idea of expanding the naval port will be able to continue. So Ukraines final form may not have a sea access. (As b says, above. The "added in 1922" area may become "separated in 2022", one hundred years later)

The question is where will the Russians stop?
****

Merlin2 | Feb 24 2022 8:33 utc | 41

I agree with you that the systematic humiliation by underhand means of Russians incl. athletes et al, over the years by underhand means, ensures that the Russian citizens themselves will be more inclined to back Putin. I agree with them about shoddy US/EU/UK pressure.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 24 2022 9:35 utc | 73

Oh boy!

The Russians did it!

By the river singing was Katyusha...

...and slaughtered everybody who listened to her song!

I wonder how much of this campaign will be fought by looking at an old soviet map and firing at the shown military installations.

Bullying cliques most often don't operate out of physical strength; but rather on the threat of (even worse) shame, by demoralization and with a perspective of impunity.

Once in a while they'll target somebody who can punch their mouth shut and promptly does.

Or an usual victim will decide that impunity is ending right fucking now, consequences be damned.

Really, how many instances of Russia civilizedly saying "We're not okay with this, why don't we get along?" with the west responding "Ahahah, you can suck my dick!" did it take to reach this point?

Posted by: Misotheist | Feb 24 2022 9:37 utc | 74

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 24 2022 8:29 utc | 36 -- "The US would not allow nukes in Cuba 60-odd years ago. Britain would not tolerate nukes in a hostile Scotland or lreland. Russia has established the legal precedent and is acting within international law."

True, true.

And Israel will not allow nukes in Iran.

But then, not so much a legal precedent as a moral one.


Posted by: kiwiklown | Feb 24 2022 9:40 utc | 75

pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 9:05 utc | 60

"Zelensky's attempt to calm things down..."

He was attempting that before the republics seceded but since has completely lost his head and has been running around like a newly decapitated chicken.

I think it was his threat that the Ukraine would build its own nukes that convinced Putin the Kiev regime is a rabid dog that has to be put down.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 24 2022 9:41 utc | 76

@75 well that article from the FPRI is surprising objective, while downplaying the long term threat Russia faces. it keeps framing it as Russia's desire to undermine Ukraine, rather than as opposing US and NATO aggression, but then I would expect that perspective from a pro Empire site.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 9:44 utc | 77

Peter AU 1 @ 68:

Wow, what were the chances that whoever beat me in mentioning the establishment of the Hetmanate in the 1650s (the yellow bit in B's map of Ukraine) by Bogdan Khmelnitski and his fellow rebel Cossack officers would be a fellow Australian?

Almost as soon as the Hetmanate was established, it entered into an alliance with the Russian empire against the Ottomans and in particular the Ottoman tributary state the Crimean Khanate.

Incidentally when the Cossacks under Khmelnitski rebelled against their Polish employers, the Polish elites fled, leaving impoverished Jewish communities in towns and cities to bear the wrath of the Cossacks and the peasantry rallying behind the Cossacks. As the only knowledge and experience of Jews the Cossacks and peasants had were of greedy money-lenders and bailiffs collecting rent for the Polish nobility, you can guess what the Cossacks and peasants did to the poor urban Jews left stranded in their ghettos.

Before Hitler, Khmelnitski was hated by eastern European Jews more than any other goyim. Therein lies the enmity between Jewish and Ukrainian peoples.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 24 2022 9:44 utc | 78

Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2022 9:22 utc | 70

"With western Ukraine fully demilitarized, there's no need for Russia to do anything except call new elections. I suspect Russia doesn't really care if there's a "friendly" government in Kiev, but if it does then it'll just vet the candidates and reject any it finds unsuitable. the Ukrainians get their new government, and Russia leaves."

Agreed, I think Putin wants no part of the Kiev shithole and therefore won't try a reverse-2014 by installing a puppet the Russians then would have to prop up. Just demilitarize and denazify the overt nazis and then withdraw.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 24 2022 9:47 utc | 79

@ Flying Dutchman I think he was threatened by the U.S. and panicked. maybe somebody sent him a picture of Diem's body, or Saddam's, or Quaddafi's.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 9:48 utc | 80

Stonebird 76 "The question is where will the Russians stop?"

Washington. Putin has made it clear he won't take no for an answer on security.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 9:49 utc | 81

I'm sure you are right that the Russians don't want nukes in Ukraine pointed at Russia, and that is imo exactly what the US and NATO want to happen.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 9:50 utc | 82

It may not be too late for Volodymyr Zekenski to realise that his best chances of survival lie in going to Russia, giving himself up to Russian authorities and accepting whatever justice and penalty are appropriate for his failure to adhere to the Minsk II agreements.

I don't fancy his chances of lasting long if he stays in Kiev: his masters in Brussels, London, Ottawa and Washington DC aren't going to save his hide and he will get all the blame for the inevitable collapse of the Ukrainian military. He might as well stick a dartboard on his head and walk around in public like that.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 24 2022 9:55 utc | 83

@67

you’re damn right. ukraine’s a sunk cost, the only question now is if the e.u. severs economic ties with russia and induces putin to move into poland. in for a penny, in for a pound, and i doubt he’s gambled russia’s entire economy on just ukraine. the priority was and is the demanded withdrawal of u.s. forces from eastern europe.

all efforts should now focus on averting a nuclear clash, but there’s no one steering the ships of state, so i’m afraid fate will decide.

Posted by: line islands | Feb 24 2022 9:56 utc | 84

Putin’s speech posted above is spot on. I machine translated it in about 5 minutes. It’s only about 5-6 pages and is a much easier read than his speech of the other day. I urge you all to take the time to translate and read it.

“Why is all this happening?...”

Putin answers with strong arguments. I’m sure karlof1, Paco, and others will be able to parse his reasoning better than myself, but if you take the time to translate and read it your thoughts and comments will certainly be more cogent and relevant. Put on some Ole Gunnar Mozart music and have at it. :-)

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 24 2022 9:56 utc | 85

Thanks Jen. Not that long ago I was reading about it but I haven't got a good memory for detail. Was unsure if it had become the Hetmanate at that stage plus you add more detail I had not read about. Close to 300 years is a long time to hold a grudge. I guess they weren't the type to forgive and forget.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 9:59 utc | 86

The only sad thing about this is that US mass propaganda media turned out to be right.

Posted by: A | Feb 24 2022 7:19 utc | 1

Sorry but you are dead wrong. There is no invasion. It is pure self defense.

Here is the link with a French translation of Putin's message (1 minute)

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 24 2022 9:59 utc | 87

A little surprised by this. I think the "pre-sanctions" gave Putin the final go ahead. Sanctimonius smarmy warmonger Lindsay Graham was saying he wanted sanctions from hell just for recognizing separatist states. Welp, he got his wet dream. Folks have wondered why Putin waited till now- Xi Jinping is the reason, their announced partnership was key to surviving extreme sanctions. Russia and China have developed enough of an alternative to SWIFT for Russia to get by. And Xi has already stepped up offering to buy Russian wheat from all regions. AFAIK Russia will be hurt most by the semiconductor restrictions, though many oligarchs will scream bloody murder over sanctions. It will be interesting to see how much US/EU try to get back at China for buying Russian gas etc.

Two weeks ago I wrote the following comment for a decent Minsk article with some folks thinking Ukraine might win a fight and saying Putin would have no Russian support. My Ukraine history/ geography is off a bit, but mostly holds up.

If Russia actually invades, they lose SWIFT and Nordstream. Europe freezes and has many industrial losses from losing all Russian gas. I think if Putin bothers, he takes all of Eastern Ukraine, including all of Kiev. Total air supremacy, ECM disruption of all communications, intelligence to the nth degree, lots of moles, overwhelming firepower. Maybe 3 days for cessation of major hostilities. Destruction of the Nazi/fascist troop formations might take longer . Urban areas are mostly Russian, holding the territory would mean fighting rural insurgencies.

Many headaches that Putin doesn't want. The war is the easy part, the peace would be very expensive, along with collateral costs. So Putin really doesn't want to invade. A sizable client state would give Moscow more breathing room from Galician fascists. I think he could get popular support for taking care of their fellow Russian speakers even at the cost of some lives, but the oligarchs are probably less supportive.

Now with the invasion I wonder if Putin is going for a lot more territory. Maybe everything except the WWII gained rump, let the Poles etc have it back. Putin tamed the Russian oligarchs well enough. If he tames the Ukrainian oligarchs, that will be key to governance. And busting the ones most supportive of the fascists.

Posted by: Mesquite | Feb 24 2022 10:04 utc | 88

President Putin speech today, official translation. Not yet complete at time for writing, sadly.

Posted by: phiw13 | Feb 24 2022 10:05 utc | 89

Closely following updates, especially on Intel Slava. It appears that resistance is minimal and many Ukrainian conscripts and even officers are deserting en masse. Russian armour is already in Kharkov, whose mayor has told the people to remain calm and indoors. The Ukranazi navy has been sunk in harbour. The Ukranazi air force has mostly ceased to exist. The airports all across the country have been put out of commission to prevent Zelensky and company fleeing. Not clear of Russian Marines have landed near Odessa; conflicting claims. Situation developing at breakneck speed.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 24 2022 10:07 utc | 90

I hope they will stop the advance at the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts.
The farther Russia decides to go, the less legal justification it has. Putin has recognized the two Republics within their respective Oblast borders. That's where the Russians should stop.

They might also attack military infrastructures in order to demilitarize Ukraine and they may even decide to push into certain regions in order to capture those criminals responsible for the Odessa massacre and other similar actions, but that would be too much. The operation would soon appear to be way too costly in human lives even to Russian sympathizers like myself.

Posted by: Leonardo | Feb 24 2022 10:08 utc | 91

Looking back at the last 20 years, especially the West helping Ukraine to drag out Minsk II in the last 8 years, I see why it came to this conclusion. If you poke another person long enough, that person will snap back eventually. Had the West built a relationship based on trust with Russia and incorporated its security needs, this would had never happened. I feel bad of those ppl who have nothing to do with what is happening, but pay the price. Those responsible, the elites in Russia and in the West, will be unaffected. It seems like wilding power comes along with a lack of empathy. Are we ruled by psychopaths?

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 24 2022 10:09 utc | 92

@ phiw13 thank you! that was a very cogent and persuasive speech. not sure he needed to do this right now, but he is far more rational than his opponents.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 24 2022 10:11 utc | 93

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 24 2022 9:56 utc | 88

Right now I'm frantically following a few Telegram channels, Cassad among others, by chance I woke up in the middle of the night and caught the speech live, there will be time to discuss it. I'm surprised by the scope of the operation, even Serpents Island which is opposite Moldova is to be taken, which means all the way to Pridnestrovye which means all the Black Sea coast. All military installations have been targeted and many destroyed. Yesterday the Investigations Committee which I suppose is the equivalent of the RF General Attorney announced the indictment of over four hundred individuals accused of war crimes. Looks like a new Nurenberg tribunal is going to take place. The Crimean Channel has been taken, Crimea water problems are going to be over. Putin walked the talk, if the fight is unavoidable strike first, he certainly did, if only eight years earlier but maybe then was not the right time to be successful. Ochakov has been targeted, that was suppossed to be the new Sebastopol built and furnished by the Brits. Maybe that minister that talked about kicking Russian ass is going to swallow his words.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 24 2022 10:16 utc | 94

Judging from the chatter on social media the Galician Ukrainians will have to be comprehensively humiliated to effect a lasting outcome.

Atlanticist Ukrainians like Blinken, Freeland and Nudelman are legion. Those sorts need to be shown the same respect Yang Jiechi gave Blinken in Anchorage, now and forevermore.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 24 2022 10:16 utc | 95

Interim impression: its an all-out Russian gamble.
They are going to take all of Ukraine over and seat a friendly new gov. Or organize a vote and join it to Union State.
Belarus will enter the fray and possibly get some western part of the country to administrer.
Transdniestria will join Russia.
NATO better stay out.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Feb 24 2022 10:21 utc | 96

@Leonardo #94:

They might also attack military infrastructures in order to demilitarize Ukraine and they may even decide to push into certain regions in order to capture those criminals responsible for the Odessa massacre and other similar actions, but that would be too much.

No, that wouldn’t be too much. The entire Ukraine will be de-militarized and de-Nazified. Not a single Nazi will be walking free in the Ukraine.

Posted by: S | Feb 24 2022 10:24 utc | 97

By The way, Z of Zorro is the sign, cheers to the guys in El Fuerte Mexico.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 24 2022 10:25 utc | 98

That map in top post remains ridiculous. There was no Ukraine in 1654. No one had pronounced the word Ukraine. There is zero continuity between the territory of the Zaporozhian Cossack Host and present Ukraine. Continuing to publish that map is not far from sympathizing with Nazis. It certainly amounts to pushing the same line as the failed Ukrainian Nazi government.

De-Nazify this page.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 24 2022 10:26 utc | 99

Next.
Mass refugee exodus West.

Posted by: Jpc | Feb 24 2022 10:30 utc | 100

next page »

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