Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 28, 2022

Disarming Ukraine - Day 5 | Money War On Russia - Day 1

Historian Anne Morelli has summarized Arthur Ponsonby's classic book Falsehood in War-Time as this:

  1. We do not want war.
  2. The opposite party alone is guilty of war.
  3. The enemy is inherently evil and resembles the devil.
  4. We defend a noble cause, not our own interests.
  5. The enemy commits atrocities on purpose; our mishaps are involuntary.
  6. The enemy uses forbidden weapons.
  7. We suffer small losses, those of the enemy are enormous.
  8. Recognized artists and intellectuals back our cause.
  9. Our cause is sacred.
  10. All who doubt our propaganda are traitors.

h/t Bernd Neuner

As an example I offer you yesterday's Policy statement by Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany

The above are what you hear and see in current 'western' news. It is not reality.

The U.S. and its proxies in the EU and elsewhere have put up very harsh sanctions on Russia to damage its economy.

The final intent of this economic war is regime change in Russia.

The likely consequence will be regime change in many other countries.

This war is waged at a financial size that is unprecedented. The consequences in all markets will be very significant to extreme. But experience from Iran shows that such financial wars have their limits as the targeted country learns to survive. Moreover Russia is in a much stronger position than Iran ever was and is better prepared for the consequences.

The rubel fell some 30% today but Russia's central bank immediately more than doubled its interest rate to 20%. It is willing to fight inflation before it is really sets in. How much of Russia's investment and consumption depends on imports from the 'west'? Can't most of it not be replaced by imports from China?

All energy consumption in the U.S. and EU will now come at a premium price. This will push the EU and the U.S. into a recession. As Russia will increase the prices for exports of goods in which it has market power - gas, oil, wheat, potassium, titanium, aluminum, palladium, neon etc - the rise in inflation all around the world will become significant.

'Western' central banks are still at practical 0% interest rates and will be reluctant to increase those as that will cause a deeper recession. This makes it likely that inflation in the 'western' world will increase at a higher rate than Russia's.

Germany's crazy move to add $120 billion to defense spending (up from some $40 billion p.a.) will within a few years create a strong military imbalance in Europe as Germany will then dominate all its neighbors. This is unnecessary and historically very dangerous. The shunning of economic relations with Russia and China means that Germany and its newbie chancellor Olaf Scholz have fallen for the U.S. scheme of creating a new Cold War. Germany's economy will now become one of its victims.

On February 4 Russia and China declared a multipolar world in which they are two partnering poles that will counter the American one. Russia's move into the Ukraine is a demonstration of that.

It also shows that the U.S. is unwilling to give up its supremacist urges without a large fight. But while the U.S. over the last 20 years has spent its money to mess up the Middle East, Russia and China have used the time to prepare for the larger conflict. They have spent more brain time on the issue than the U.S. has.

The Europeans should have acknowledged that instead of helping the U.S. to keep up its self-image of a unipolar power.

It will take some time for the new economic realities to settle in. They will likely change the current view of Europe's real strategic interests. 

---

Some tactical observations:

This map shows the ground taken by Russian military over the first days.


Source - bigger

This map shows the likely current intent of the Russian forces.


Source - bigger
  • There are 12 to 15 brigades of Ukrainian forces (blue) at the Donbas front. If the Russian's (red) move fast enough they can cut those off from the rest of the country or bomb them while they try to escape on the only big road between those two pincer arrows.
  • After a lull Russia has reintroduced Su-34 fighters to Ukraine. They will attack Ukrainian troop concentrations.
  • The Russian elements north of Crimea have taken two important bridges and crossed the Dnieper towards the west. This opens the way to Odessa further west as well as for a march northward towards Kiev on the western side of the Dnieper.

Posted by b on February 28, 2022 at 14:01 UTC | Permalink

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Belarus joins war with advance on Lotsk

Alarming video from the western part of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. A convoy of 38th Air Assault Brigade of the Belarusian army (not Russian) near Kobryn in Brest region. Most of the vehicles are marked with red squares - makes sense if Lukashenko is about to join the war.

https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/The-Belarusian-Armed-Forces.pdf

Posted by: Oui | Feb 28 2022 14:08 utc | 1

what has surprised me is how eagerly the phalanx of Eu poodles has fallen in line. I wonder how long that will last over the coming weeks and perhaps months.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:08 utc | 2

Important: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rz0EReyZKo4J:https://news7h.com/gulf-states-neutrality-towards-ukraine-reflects-russias-deeper-ties/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1-d">https://news7h.com/gulf-states-neutrality-towards-ukraine-reflects-russias-deeper-ties/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1-d">https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rz0EReyZKo4J:https://news7h.com/gulf-states-neutrality-towards-ukraine-reflects-russias-deeper-ties/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1-d

Middle East isn't signed on the US/EU - neutral along with China w/ respect to Russia/Ukraine. This includes a UAE abstention in the UN Security Council vote.

So: China, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, presumably Iran are not going along with the Western line so far.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 14:15 utc | 3

@c1ue wow I would have thought Saudi Arabia would be all in.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:16 utc | 4

link for above

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 14:17 utc | 5

pretzelattack 4 "wow I would have thought Saudi Arabia would be all in."

China is the worlds largest importer of oil. saudi knows who butters their bread and which way the wind is blowing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 14:23 utc | 6

what exactly is China's position on this so far.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:24 utc | 7

Tass is now down, Russian MoD and Kremlin sites all down!

I managed to copy and piece together exact wording on Tass by Russian Ministry of Defense from other sites:

In the morning of February 28, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Russian forces have liberated the towns of Energodar and Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhie Region.

According to the released statement, Russian military aviation controls the skies over Ukraine.

“Russian aviation has won air supremacy over the entire territory of Ukraine,” Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov told reporters.

According to him, over the past 24 hours, the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed eight Buk M-1 air defense systems, and guidance stations of S-300 and Buk M-, three radio positions with P-14 stations, four combat aircraft on the ground and one in the air.

"Since the beginning of the operation, Russian forces have hit 1,114 Ukrainian military infrastructure facilities, including 31 command posts and communications centers, destroyed 314 tanks and other armored vehicles, 57 multiple launch rocket systems, 121 field artillery pieces and mortars,” he said.

A corridor has also been reserved for civilians to leave Kiev.

This is from Southfront:

The Russian Defense Ministry also issued appeal to residents of Kiev:

All civilians in the city can freely leave the capital of Ukraine along the Kiev-Vasilkov highway. This direction is open and safe.”

“I want to emphasize once again that the armed forces of the Russian Federation strike only at military targets. Nothing threatens the civilian population.”

I just want to say this: we are all under attack by fascist behemoth USNATO when we are being restricted in our communications and are prevented from getting information from both sides. This censorship is a disgrace! Free, my ass.

For now, I leave you with this to contemplate:

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist

Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist

Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist

Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew

Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

- Martin Niemöller

Posted by: Circe | Feb 28 2022 14:25 utc | 8

that makes sense Peter AU1. i don't know if China is going to help them starve Yemen though.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:25 utc | 9

It'd be funny if the Russian counter economic sanctions consisted of telling the western borg that they can only procure resources with physical gold or via the CIPS payment system. Not only would this bypass swift, it'd help China and kill the dollar. You'd hear the collective 'reeee' from the moon. :)

Posted by: Jon | Feb 28 2022 14:25 utc | 10

With the exception of the CCP the worlds ruling elites have proven utterly incompetent in protecting their populations. Over a million dead in both Russia and the US from Covid--Putin is as brilliant as Trump/Biden. Meanwhile the perma frost melts and billions will face ruin. But hey look over their we got a war to distract you from our corrupt incompentence.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/

Posted by: wobblie | Feb 28 2022 14:31 utc | 11

(1) What's the status of the airports/bases around Kyiv - specifically, Hostomel and Vasylkiv? MSM reports that Russia took Hostomel but Ukraine counter-attacked & took it back; similar (but more muddle) news for Vasylkiv. Seems like both would be very high priority, for both Russia & Ukraine.

(2) What's the story with the big cities - Kyiv & Kharkiv? MSM keeps saying that Russia is attacking Kyiv, but the details so far look like minor probes & stray missiles. Is Russia really going to attack the cities, risking tens of thousands of civilian casualties? Or are they just building a credible threat, to increase leverage at bargaining table? Or are they just trying to draw troops away from the lines in the East & South? IMO, attacking big cities would be a PR disaster for Russia. Putin may feel like they have to do it to prove that they're serious about their original demands, but so far, the result is a much more strongly united NATO.

Posted by: elkern | Feb 28 2022 14:31 utc | 12

John Helmer's primary expertise is in economic matters. His column today is interesting:
http://johnhelmer.net/black-box-defence-for-the-russian-economy-dollar-debt-repayments-blocked-gas-and-oil-deliveries-to-germany-stopped-oligarch-assets-nationalized/#more-47600

Posted by: bevin | Feb 28 2022 14:32 utc | 13

100 billion+ will not make Germany a major military power.
Due to the neglicence in the past you cannot just simply pave the huge gaps with money.
Also: All major German military equipment projects in the past habe somehow failed. Be it A-400m, Jäger 90/Eurofighter, Frigates, SPz Puma... the money will epavorate - into the pockets oft the MIC and Consultant companies. As little better educated younger Germans are really much into patriotism - where should the dedicated cannonfodder needed to wage war come from?

Posted by: Vollhonk | Feb 28 2022 14:33 utc | 14

@pretzelattack #4
Yes, a little surprising.
But then again - SA has relatively little to gain right now be demonizing Russia.
Cutting Russian oil out of the world market would increase revenues temporarily, then the global economy crashes and the price of oil falls precipitously. Plus it seems SA isn't happy about the pending Iran nuclear deal or the (likely correct) perception that the US is now treating the ME like a backwater, hence SA can not rely on US protection any more.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 14:36 utc | 15

It seems natural for Russia to control the Black sea areas to just west of Odessa, and then divide Ukraine along the Odessa Kiev highway. The Eastern part can then be called Nova Russia, or similar?

Western Ukraine can then be left to the wild tribes, as a demilitarized area, and the EU's problem?

Posted by: Ric G | Feb 28 2022 14:36 utc | 16

Posted by: Circe | Feb 28 2022 14:25 utc | 8

Tass is up in my neck of the woods...things are fluid...no need to panic...

Posted by: notlurking | Feb 28 2022 14:37 utc | 17

I see something in msm about US trying to organize an UNGA meeting. If that comes about, it will be very interesting to see where countries are at now.
Brazil publicly stated it is with Russia. I get the impression US power has now narrowed down to five-eyes, Europe and Japan.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 14:38 utc | 18

Posted by: Circe | Feb 28 2022 14:25 utc | 8

Tass still working fine.

Posted by: ted001 | Feb 28 2022 14:39 utc | 19

A few worthless observations

Force Locations
1) It strikes me that the quantity of reasonably objective reporting is nil. We have some markings on maps but near zero reports on actual locations of RF or UA forces. This is possible evidence of excellent operational security on both sides. On the UA side it may also be due to a loss of command and communication centres. The UA military may have lost the ability to communicate with their field forces.

Force Reporting
2) It is reported RF has not terminated civilian services such as cell and internet in the operational area though I believe it likely they have this capacity. The RF is largely operating within areas in which the population is favourable to it. RF may be requesting civilians to not communicate position information. This is pure speculation on my part but it does explain the lack of civilian reporting. There was more civilian video available during the 2014 - 2015 period compared to recently.

Cartography
3) In addition to b's map, The Saker provides periodic sketch maps. Wikipedia provides a detailed map of UA with icons representing contested areas. But this does not appear to be accurate. On the 27th I found video of RF forces raising a Russian flag over the town of Pavlograd. But the Wikipedia map shows no RF presence. It is however useful for locating the place names associated with civilian of other videos.
The detailed map is here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map

Wikipedia also maintains a second map as part of its reporting on the invasion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

This shows the axis of attack of RF but its accuracy is unknown.

RF Slow
4) The MSM is reporting that the RF forces are bogged down or slow to reach objectives. In 1940 the Wehrmacht took seven days to reach the Channel coast (May 13th Sedan, May 20th Abbeville). This was a road distance of 300 km which today can be travelled in 3 hours according to Google maps.

The distance from Kiev to the Belarus Border crossing is 161 km and today requires 3 hours of travel time. Today is day 5 of the Special Operation and RF forces are either in contact on the outskirts of Kiev, or have completed an encirclement of the city. This is better than the time required by the Wehrmacht. I am not sure the claims "the RF is bogged down" or "RF is slow" are accurate.

Donbass Kessel
5) It is a standard military tactic to conduct a "holding attack" on the opponent. This holds the enemy force in position while other forces conduct flanking operations intended to encircle the force held in its position. The attack by Donbass forces on UA LOC forces represents such a holding attack. While this was underway two Russian spearheads moved to encircle of "kessel" all of the UA forces held on the line of contact.

If the video of RF forces flag raising in Pavlograd is accurate then the encirclement is complete and the 50,000 UA force on the LOC is now "in the bag."

My belief is that the UA abandonment of the first surrender negotiations was intended to buy time for the UA DOnbass force to extricate itself from encirclement. The fact the UA is now seeking negotiations suggests they are aware of the encirclement and the potential loss of a significant part of their order of battle. Possible the best trained and most committed of their forces.

Biden SOTU and Elite Vulnerability
6) The US 2022 State of the Union address is scheduled for Tuesday March 1st. Biden will make claims with respect to sanctions and Western response to "Bad Vlad" and the Special Operation. Once Biden takes "ownership" of the situation, Putin will respond by sanctioning all energy exports to the West and demand all future purchases be made in rubles.

My view is that all Western measures have been taken by the elites without any consultation with their electorates. The elites scorned RF legitimate concerns over NATO expansion and the failure to enact the Minsk accords. Joe Sixpack was watching football and not paying attention. RF now turns off the energy taps, Brent goes to $120 a bbl, and inflation hits Mr Sixpack where it hurts. The "democracies" now face an angry and upset population. The elites are now forced to explain how their conduct.

Posted by: Sushi | Feb 28 2022 14:39 utc | 20

Re: Posted by: Oui | Feb 28 2022 14:08 utc | 1

Belarus taking Western Ukraine, well this is really interesting. This definitely has the potential to escalate.

This will make the Poles extra nervous and itchy to get involved.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 28 2022 14:40 utc | 21

Regime change. Anyone remember 'Assad must Go!' How has that turned out?

Posted by: par4 | Feb 28 2022 14:42 utc | 22

pretzelattack 9

Yes Yemen bugs me bit. It really is a casualty of a much larger war. To keep the gulf Arabs on side, Russia/China do not interfere.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 14:43 utc | 23

Posted by: bevin | Feb 28 2022 14:32 utc | 13


I can't access John Helmer's site.

Posted by: WJ | Feb 28 2022 14:44 utc | 24

what exactly is China's position on this so far.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:24 utc | 7

----

Officially they are neutral. But all their news channels (be it in English or Mandarin - especially Mandarin) are sympathetic to Putin's dilemma and have been very clear in explaining to the Chinese audience why he did what he did. They hardly inject emotions and seem to be objective in presenting their information, with none of the hysteria on MSM. Global Times do try to rile things up time to time on their news site, and CGTN is calmer. Regardless, one can easily read their implicit support for Russia's actions against NATO/US.

Posted by: bonks | Feb 28 2022 14:47 utc | 25

Sushi 20

Accurate civilian reporting from Ukraine on social media is quickly shut down as it does not match the western narrative. A number of Ukraine twitter accounts I started to watch were quickly closed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 14:47 utc | 26

@bonks, thanks.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:50 utc | 27

Russia did not start the war, Russia is finshing the war that you heartless nat-ukros started

Posted by: Boo | Feb 28 2022 14:53 utc | 28

... the phalanx ...
Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 14:08 utc | 2

---

One in ten Europeans is in arrears with payments


In 2016, 10.4% of the population in the European Union (EU) were in arrears with their mortgage, rent or other items, such as utility bills or hire purchase payments, which are typically paid as monthly instalments. In other words, one in ten people in the EU had such outstanding debts and delayed payments in 2016.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20180529-1

Posted by: too scents | Feb 28 2022 14:55 utc | 29

Russia is also the largest exporter of nitrogen products. There is an ongoing global food crisis that is going to become larger.

Posted by: Tobin Paz | Feb 28 2022 14:55 utc | 30

West-Ukrainian / Poland border racism against Indian students?

"The students alleged that Ukrainian shops and residents had also turned hostile against them. First, ATMs were not working. Even if someone had cash on hand, it was useless. The cafes were not allowing Indian students to enter. There are two food cafes on the border but they are not allowing the Indian students." https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/with-mobiles-dead-students-held-up-in-ukraine-cant-even-send-sos/article65093024.ece

Posted by: Antonym | Feb 28 2022 14:56 utc | 31

The EU is willing to see its citizens pay a hefty economic hit just to keep on supporting the Ukrainian Nazis, I wonder how ordinary Europeans in the EU feel about that.

"The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has acknowledged that the sweeping sanctions the bloc has imposed on Russia in recent days over Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine will have a negative impact on Europeans, too.

Responding to a Euronews correspondent’s remark on Sunday that “of course Europeans and Europe will have to pay a price for these measures,” von der Leyen replied in the affirmative, saying that “every war comes at a cost.”

However, according to the official, Brussels is not daunted by the possible economic blowback from the Russia sanctions, and will continue to prop up Ukraine with a “strong solidarity.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2022 14:57 utc | 32

One in ten Europeans is in arrears with payments

Adding ... this statistic speaks as much or more to creditors preferring flexibility to default as it does to the general economic condition of recession and indebtedness.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 28 2022 14:58 utc | 33

I am just up skimming the news and see a Reuters posting saying that Biden is sending retired military to Taiwan in support of Ukraine.......

Biden's handlers know exactly what they are doing......kabuki for all


The shit show continues until it doesn't

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 28 2022 14:59 utc | 34

@bevin #13
Indeed. Glaziev brings up a number of interesting assertions:

1) Losses due to sanctions

To date, the outcome of the economic consequences of anti-Russian sanctions is as follows. Ukraine suffered the biggest losses relative to GDP, in absolute terms — the European Union. Russian losses of potential GDP, since 2014, amount to about 50 trillion rubles. But only 10% of them can be explained by sanctions, while 80% of them were the result of monetary policy.

Glaziev is saying that the CBR's policy of having a floating exchange rate gives the West the mechanism to attack the Russian economy via sanctions

2) Russian government financing via bond sales

The threat to ban transactions with Russian bonds will also benefit us, since their issue in a budget surplus is nothing more than a source of profit for foreign speculators. And their profitability is overestimated three times in relation to the market assessment of their riskiness.

3) Freeze/Seizure of Russian assets abroad

a)

There is also a potential risk of seizure of Russian state assets. But we can respond to this symmetrically by imposing an embargo on servicing debt obligations to Western creditors and also arresting their assets. The losses of the parties will be approximately equal.

b)

There remains, in fact, one threat – to take away foreign assets from Russian oligarchs. For all its popularity among the common people, this will stimulate the return of capital exported from the country, which will also have a positive effect for the Russian economy.

There is a lot more - well worth reading.

As for access: just be patient and try and try again. Web sites everywhere related to Russia are seeing 10x or more increased traffic - these sites just aren't set up to handle that type of traffic.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 15:03 utc | 35

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 14:17 utc | 5
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 14:43 utc | 24

I suspect the SA/Yemen conflict may have been promoted by the US. Further, I think it likely the ME countries are painfully aware how Uncle Sam utilizes them as proxies. The US encourages armed conflict, makes weapon sales, and then "the rule based international" OrderMeister develops a different set of enthusiasms and swans off to some other conflict leaving its proxies holding a bag of Scheisse.

You can only do this so man times before the injured and offended realise they are not allies but tools. Disposable tools.

Sputnik has a report describing Western Racism and the Global South's response:
https://sputniknews.com/20220228/indian-minister-calls-out-western-media-for-pervasive-racial-coverage-of-russia-nato-row-1093444780.html

Yesterday Sputnik reported on the Ukraine treatment of evacuating Blacks. The police formed a line, the Whites were permitted to board the train, the Blacks were refused.

I believe 22-2-22 will be a significant date in world history. It will mark the decline of Western suzerainty and the rise of a multi-polar world order in which the dominant voices will be those of the Global South.

Posted by: Sushi | Feb 28 2022 15:03 utc | 36

@Sushi #20

There are many videos from Ukrainian residents at https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Posted by: S | Feb 28 2022 15:03 utc | 37

"Germany's crazy move to add $120 billion to defense spending (up from some $40 billion p.a.) will within a few years create a strong military imbalance in Europe as Germany will then dominate all its neighbors."

Good to see some curtains parting on German windows and worldviews.

This comment (b. above) appears to assume that this money will be for German industry.

What evidence is there to discount the option that basically it is a sop to the old Trump bitch about Nato/Germany not carrying their share of the cost of Nato etc?

That is, like many other colonies (e.g., Australia), is it a tribute payment/transfer to the hegemon?

Plugging the usd$ QE mess is surely a top strategic priority and Germany (& I suspect Japan in due course) will be required to help balance the books. It is therefore more likely a foreign tax and not a German economic development policy. The other broad aspect is the need to reduce the Euro as a viable stable alternative store of wealth to the usd$ (& possibly the Yuan, and maybe even gold in the longer turn).

Posted by: imo | Feb 28 2022 15:04 utc | 38

There's always that one guy who decides to throw a brick at a street brawl:


Kosovo Pleads US for Permanent Military Base, Urges NATO for Faster Membership

Balkan state Kosovo invites the US to put up a long-term military base in the country. It’s also calling for NATO to speed up its membership following Russia’s Ukraine invasion.

The US has already deployed 635 soldiers in Kosovo to maintain peace. It’s a part of NATO’s peacekeeping mission.

“Accelerating Kosovo’s membership in NATO and having a permanent base of American forces is an immediate need to guarantee peace, security and stability in the Western Balkans,” said Kosovo’s Defence Minister Armend Mehaj.

The said Balkan state joined the wagon of other countries that established sanctions against Russia. Mehaj and the Kosovo government are ready to offer help for any military endeavor to Ukraine should the White House ask for it.

(https://eu-ocs.com/kosovo-seeks-permanent-us-military-base-faster-nato-membership/)

Isn't funny how unresolved issues always *always* come back to haunt?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 28 2022 15:04 utc | 39

How much German energy comes from Russia?

German economy minister on Russian energy - Twitter account for Antonello Guerrera

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA

As I noted before: Russian coal is already 1 quarter delayed due to "COVID" on Russian railways.

Maybe the next counter-sanction will be oil delays due to the same "COVID" issue.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 15:05 utc | 40

Hello, I'm Brazilian from Rio de Janeiro. Make no mistake, Bolsonaro is as much a Nazi as any soldier in the azov battalion. But he at least used diplomacy the right way this time. The question I ask is: If Uncle Sam gets cornered economically, could he turn his interests around and tighten things up around here?

Posted by: Oisin | Feb 28 2022 15:06 utc | 41

Okay, TASS is back up, but it was down a while ago, because after I posted the TASS link on previous thread, another commenter here wrote it was down so I checked and he was right, and Russian MOD and Kremlin site are still not responding. ​

@17

If you don't believe I have reason to worry we are under attack by a massive propaganda campaign, weaponized media and censorship of the truth and Russia sites, then you drank the relax, nothing to see here, feel-good koolaid

When they come and silence us here; you'll know I was right...again by the way, and this is one time I hope I'm wrong and I eat your crow.

Posted by: Circe | Feb 28 2022 15:08 utc | 42

PeterAU1 18

Brazil publicly stated it is with Russia. I get the impression US power has now narrowed down to five-eyes, Europe and Japan.

Yep, that's what I'm seeing too. So whenever they bloviate about how "the world" or "the international community" condemns Russia, they really just mean these countries.

Most of the world is either neutral or pro-Russia. Even in countries like Japan and South Korea, I get the impression they are just shouting empty slogans, but nothing more substantive.

Posted by: Ghan-buri-Ghan | Feb 28 2022 15:08 utc | 43

Regime change. Anyone remember 'Assad must Go!' How has that turned out?

Posted by: par4 | Feb 28 2022 14:42 utc | 22

Turned out with a balkanized Syria, which as I recall was the basis of something called the Yinon plan.

Posted by: bubbles | Feb 28 2022 15:08 utc | 44

The situation is unusually volatile because US can insulate itself from many of the first order effects, like energy or food price, by blocking exports. More distant effects like economic crisis in much of the world are apparently considered "worth it" or possibly even beneficial. To my surprise, they're willing to stake the future of the petrodollar arrangement that allows US to print the country's permanent trade deficit, for the sake of asserting US hegemonic position right in Russia's front yard. How this is done without China is unclear to me. China was economically attacked by Trump, insulted by Biden, militarily threatened by both, and has about 100 ways to shut down the US electronics, consumer goods, automotive sectors, and much of industry (via parts) and construction (via parts). Safe to say, their energy position is permanently secured now, and they're going to walk out of this as a first class international banking center.

Natgas futures, meanwhile, calmed slightly. Dec22 TTF just over $100-110 EU/MW (compare $70-80 before the military action). The more significant following year Dec23 has just about reverted to the trend around 50-55 EU/MW. To repeat I think this price might be more representative of what will actually be paid in 2023, for which arrangements stil being made - whereas 2022 should mostly already be locked in. 50EU/MW = $17ish/MMbtu is still catastrophically high for most of the world, via secondary effect on industry and fertilizer -> food as already discussed a bunch here.

Posted by: ptb | Feb 28 2022 15:09 utc | 45

According to a Chinese website
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2022_02_28_628117.shtml?s=zwyxgtjbt
the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have finished. During the talks the Ukrainian delegation demanded the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, including Crimea and Donbas.

Posted by: TN | Feb 28 2022 15:09 utc | 46

This from Scholz speech is nothing but sheer propaganda, Russia is as well all know defending not just its borders but stopping the genocide and pogroms in Eastern Ukraine, now the independent republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. The Ukrainians are fighting not for freedom or democracy they gave that up in 2014 when the USA took control of the country via Poroshenko and later Zelensky.

I share no values with the Nazi element in Ukraine nor the countless street names and monuments dedicated to Nazi sympathisers of the last century.

Why has the majority of Europe sided with a country that promotes Nazism, a country that along with the USA voted against a UN resolution to strike Nazism in all its forms around the world down recently.

Why has there been no emergency UN meeting (like there was last night on Russia) for the last eight years on the Ukrainian Nazi battalions continued genocide of Eastern Ukrainian people.

I can only suggest that EU interests in Ukraine and Nato interests in Ukraine have led to them turning a blind eye to pogroms and genocide in Eastern Ukraine, in other words the people of Donbas don't matter.


"We have already provided significant support in recent weeks, months and years.

But with the attack on Ukraine, we have entered a new era.

In Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and Mariupol, people are not just defending their homeland.

They are fighting for freedom and their democracy.

For values that we share with them.

As democrats, as Europeans, we stand by their side – on the right side of history!"

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2022 15:11 utc | 47

I would think that for the USA, regime change in Russia is not the central goal. In long-term strategy, it is still Mackinder's Heartland Theory for them -- which I'd summarize as "who wants to rule the world, has to rule Eurasia; and if that is not possible, has to prevent others to rule it, and has to prevent the countries there of working too closely together."

To me, the foreign policy of "world leaders" USA since at least 1945 starts to make sense (in a most cynical, perverted, massmurdering way) when seen from that angle. Lost some (direct or proxy) war here and there and there and there? Doesn't matter; what matters is to disrupt peaceful neighborship of countries (let them hate each other for decades), stall the countries' economic development in general (poor populaces bring problems in their own countries and for neighbors), and let Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Blackwater/Academi et al make great profits year by year by replenishing the hardware the US' military lost.

From that perspective, and for short-term consequences only, the USA has already won the Ukraine conflict it drove Russia into; the actual outcome of the conflict is of zero importance in that.

For the next decade, probably longer, collaboration of Russia and Europe (well, the part of Europe that is not in Russia...) is completely out of the cards. No BRI from Lisbon to Singapore. Instead, we have to turn to our big brother USA, who will love to sell us everything we can't buy from Russia anymore (for a price of course, and only if available in sufficient quantities), and prevent us from having ideas that the US' wisdom deems not good for us.

So instead of enjoying the opportunities of the growing Eurasian economies, the EU+ countries (I'm including CH, UK, Norway, ...) are completely tied to the empire whose beginning crash is getting more and more visible.

Of course, this will neither stop BRI (they're big enough, they can do without the European peninsula) nor stop the downfall of the USA (just slow it down a little). But for most EU+ citizens, the upcoming years will not be nice, to say the least.

Outside Ukraine, EU+ is the big loser of this war.

Posted by: NeiHuem | Feb 28 2022 15:15 utc | 48

Chinese Term ‘Wuxin Gongzuo’: Can’t Focus on Work Due to Russia-Ukraine Crisis (What’s on Weibo, Manya Koetse & Miranda Barnes, February 24, 2022)

There is one new word today capturing the mood on Chinese social media in light of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: wū xīn gōngzuò (乌心工作), meaning people are so concerned with what is happening in Ukraine, that they cannot focus on work.

The term that became a meme on Chinese social media today is a wordplay on the term wúxīn gōngzuò (无心工作), meaning not being in the mood to work.

Posted by: S | Feb 28 2022 15:17 utc | 49

@32
Don't be an idiot, any proof of what you wrote about racism?
Don't spread propaganda.

Posted by: Xpilgrim | Feb 28 2022 15:18 utc | 50

The comment I made in OT not Ukraine belongs here:

The US, Russia and China all realize that nuclear weapons are suicidal (so do the Israelis and perhaps the Pakistanis - but they may be suicidal anyway).

As alternative devastating weapons, the US has settled on animal and human biowarfare with the eternal hope of finding a disease that attacks Russia and China while leaving Americans safe and sound. I think it is a futile and stupid effort - there is no such disease. No matter what disease they come up with, Americans will be affected.

Russia, on the other hand, has decided on economic warfare. Economically speaking, the US is a parasite - most of US GDP is filled with expensive items (Housing, Health Care and Insurance, College and University Education, Commercial Real Estate) that are either free or cheap elsewhere. Another heavy component is military hardware and software - not useful economically speaking. Meanwhile, Russia runs a budget surplus and has a conservative economy: mining and extraction of natural resources, chemical manufacturing (fertilizer) and other manufacturing. If the Russians withhold commodity exports and fertilizer from foreign spot market(s) for three months and after that demand payment in gold - the world economy collapses. I would not be surprised if they do just that.

Posted by: Albertde | Feb 28 2022 15:19 utc | 51

@Tobin Paz #31
Between energy, wheat and fertilizer - I am believing more and more, every day, that the 2nd and 3rd world nations are not going to go along with the US' line this time around.
Russia's largest wheat customer is Egypt followed by Turkey. All manner of North African, Middle East and South American countries are there as well.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 15:20 utc | 52

Things are getting twisted. Really twisted.

If Russia is the U.S. enemy, then the U.S. cannot target Iran, which is the real target.

So, explain to me how is that going to work?

The reason U.S./NATO haven't/can't intervene in Ukraine is because from a U.S./NATO perspective, Russia is not the target. If U.S./NATO make the move against the real target (via failure to renew JCPOA) they will be doing so with an active enemy engagement on their left flank (Russia/Ukraine) and a potentially explosive situation on their right flank with China/Taiwan. That is too much of a risky undertaking. But nevertheless, it will be done because at this moment, U.S./NATO options in this regard are diminishing rapidly.

Posted by: thecelticwithinme | Feb 28 2022 15:22 utc | 53

@ptb #46
I don't consider futures' prices indicative of a damn thing.
Europe Natgas in 2023 - what happens if Russia decides to sell its gas to China instead?
If Russia can receive dollars for energy but can't spend them - there is zero incentive for Russia to sell even disregarding any geopolitical considerations.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 15:22 utc | 54

Number 1?

Any vid links to those Belorussian Air brigades. Please be so.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 28 2022 15:24 utc | 55

I hear some EU 'leaders' like Czech Republic or van der Leyen are asking to have Ukraine join the EU in an accelerated ratification process...
I can hear Azov and the right sector applauding, they can't wait to take in some refugees, rescued from the mediterranean, to Lviv. At least, this is what they went to Maidan for, right?

Posted by: Grasdackel | Feb 28 2022 15:25 utc | 56

@Oui #1
Any vids of the Belorussians? Still getting to learn how to tag.;)

Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 28 2022 15:26 utc | 57

Western media despair is because Russia is winning huge on the battlefield. Comical if not tragic seeing Europeans sacrificing themselves for a decadent American empire. Good riddance.

Posted by: Nick | Feb 28 2022 15:27 utc | 58

I don't consider futures' prices indicative of a damn thing.
Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 15:22 utc | 55

---

The only price you need to follow is TSLA. It tells you everything about the market.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 28 2022 15:28 utc | 59

imo | Feb 28 2022 15:04 utc | 39
I don't know if Germany has yet made a decision on aircraft but awhile back it was looking at the F-35 rather than a European plane. I think that defense spending will be a tribute payment to the US.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 15:29 utc | 60

A interesting article which suggests Polish troops could flood into Western Ukraine to hold the land and stop Ukrainian refugees from entering Poland, there's one big problem though, Poland considers parts of Western Ukraine such as Lviv as Polish lands. The Polish government just need the nod from their allies to go ahead.

https://thesaker.is/a-chance-for-poland-to-regain-its-long-lost-territories/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2022 15:33 utc | 61

@10 jon
It'd be funny if the Russian counter economic sanctions consisted of telling the western borg that they can only procure resources with physical gold or via the CIPS payment system.

Exactly, this is the way to go countering sanction game by western imperialists and initiating the end game.
Actually we are discussing this in Tehran since the beginning of Russian special operation in Ukraine. Moscow, Peking, Tehran should officially introduce a SWIFT replacement mechanism and declare it as the preferred transaction channel for their international trade. Have no doubt that many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin American decide to join such an initiative.
A peaceful path toward a new world order!

Posted by: Framarz | Feb 28 2022 15:36 utc | 62

MSM backpedaling on Snake Island

In audio of the incident, a Russian officer can be heard telling the soldiers to lay down arms to "avoid bloodshed and unjustified deaths" before one of the Ukrainian soldiers responded with the expletive.

Ukrainian officials last week said all 13 of the soldiers were killed. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a press briefing said the soldiers would be “posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine."

But the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine in a statement said the soldiers may have been captured by Russian forces and are still alive...

Posted by: farm ecologist | Feb 28 2022 15:36 utc | 63

David Stockman on Feb28th "Reprint on Unz" Article goes over the Internal+External Dynamics of the UKR - Highlighted are:

*The Ideological Divide Outlined in the 2010 Elections btwn Nationalist-Nazi vs Post_Soviet+Jewish-Bolshevik/Pro+Ethnic_Russian Factions;

*The Dire Corruption amongst the KleptOligarchy which drained the National Coffers;

*The "Austerity Loan / Privateering Package" Offered by the EU/ECB/IMF and the more attractive "Almost4×asLargeLoanwithEasierTerms+DiscountedNatGas Package" Offered by Russia;

*Enter TEAM_USA with UKRainian-Jewish-Murican Nudelman-Khagan, Psaki-Speaker4StateDept, HUNgarian-Jewish-Murican Soros-Schwartz+NGO, then TEAM_UkroNazi with Poroshenko+Oligarchy, and Nationalist-Nazi-Anti-Russia Types to incite a Coup d'État to replace the Govt with an Anti-Russian Regime bent on Ethnocidal Ruination and Removal of Ethnic-Russians and Russian Military Presence in Sevastopolis/Crimea+Donbass;

Clearly the Russian Loan+DiscountNatGas Pkg would have helped UKR recover Financially and perhaps even Prosper; but TEAM_USA+EU+Ukro-Nazi didn't want Russia+Ukro-Russians to influence the State+Economy. TEAM_USA+EU wanted Control Over UKR.

Explains a good deal as to why so many Euro-NATO+EU Members save Russian-Friendly Nation-States would be silent to the Kiev+Maidan-Nazi Ethnocidal Campaigns in the Donbass and Directed Takeover of Crimea+Donbass by "Peace Candidate" Zelensky who refused Minsk Agreements along with Poroshenko.

*****
Consider that the Ukro-Nazi were so Spiteful of the Ethnic-Russians, they not only refused to "Let them Go as they Voted to Leave - as any Rational Ethnic/Political Collective would have done" - where Autonomy within a Federation or Acknowledgement of Secession would have resolved and settled the Ideological+Political+Cultural Divide.

Subjugation, Castigation (recall the Russian-Language removed from Official Correspondence), Ruination, Financial Enslavement, and Ethnocidal Removal - All were the Intended Fate of Ethnic-Russians in UKR.

Quite disgusting to see Ursula-the-Anglo-German-descendant-of-Murican-Slave-Owners von der Leyen and a Black USA UN Delegate Ramble On to preach unto Russia+World about "Territorial Integrity" and "Freedom and Democracy"

Not a Word about Acknowledgement of the Donbass Residents' Self Determination.

With FalseFlag Announcements of Russian Invasion with Dates, Increased Shelling into the Donbass, and Zelensky mentioning acquiring Nukes (with his Maidan-Nazi Vassals - BTW, casual readers, Jewish have Factions who worked with Hitler+Nazi+Bolsheviks) meaning DirtyNukes and FissionNukes in hands of Nazis - Starting Off the Russian Recognition of LPR+DPR and Military Intervention, we may see UKR Split for Good and for the Better for the Ethnic-Russians.

Unfortunately, Kiev will remain a Failed-State; but Western Rentier-Bankers+MIC own them now...

Posted by: IronForge | Feb 28 2022 15:37 utc | 64

In today’s financial news much is being made of the fact that Russia’s currency reserves held offshore have been frozen making them unable to be used to defend the ruble. However the numbers quoted to support that assertion are from last June.

Given the obvious vulnerability of those funds being frozen if they are deposited with US or EU financial institutions and the fact that planning for Russia’s cleanup of Ukraine has been going on for a long time I suspect that the amount of funds that have been frozen is considerably less than the $300 billion being thrown around in the Western media.

It seems more likely that Western banks are just refusing to engage in any transactions which require them to be a Ruble buyer for the present which has effectively caused the Ruble to go “no bid” for the short term.

Coupled with blanket reporting of Russia’s “failure” in Ukraine this makes the Western currency speculators think they are on a sure thing shorting the Ruble. They may well get a huge shock when Russia reports the elimination of the bulk of the Ukraine army in the Donbass cauldron.

Might even cause a bit of a financial crisis in the US and EU.

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Feb 28 2022 15:37 utc | 65

@62 So it would open doors for Germany to invade the west Poland which is part of eastern Prussia.

Posted by: Nick | Feb 28 2022 15:37 utc | 66

Posted by: S | Feb 28 2022 15:17 utc | 50


Chinese Term ‘Wuxin Gongzuo’: Can’t Focus on Work Due to Russia-Ukraine Crisis (What’s on Weibo, Manya Koetse & Miranda Barnes, February 24, 2022)

Thank you so much for this. I thought I was the only one.

At this rate I'll be able to post on MoA hourly along with other jobless bums due to being permanently unemployed/unemployable.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 28 2022 15:37 utc | 67

@Albertde #52
It would be childish for Russia to take its economic marbles and go home.
Among other things, it would cause severe suffering all over the 2nd and 3rd world countries - it is poor people who are directly hurt by rising food prices.
A much different approach would be something like the "COVID" pause in Russian coal exports. 45% of Germany's coal comes from Russia, for example.
A "COVID" pause in Russian oil (30% of Germany's oil comes from Russia) to Europe would make oil prices in Europe rise enough to be visible and painful, and show just what economic separation with Russia would mean but without burning any bridges.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 28 2022 15:41 utc | 68

@ TN | Feb 28 2022 15:09 utc | 47

So nice to see that the Ukies, despite the rapid disintegration of their country, haven't lost their sense of humor. Of course, having a president who affects to play the piano with his membrum virile must help.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 28 2022 15:41 utc | 69

Use Opera

Posted by: Yucatantn | Feb 28 2022 15:42 utc | 70

@55 clue

Yea they'll probably shut off the flow after a few warnings. Then there'll be a few months more to sort it out, by June or so, before it becomes too late to fill EU underground storage for winter '22-'23.

Guessing EU will huff and puff until then, and eventually agree it's best for everyone to deposit dollars or euros into a Chinese bank, who exchanges into ruble or yuan. Washington can then exchange threats with Beijing if they want. (they will want...)

Posted by: ptb | Feb 28 2022 15:45 utc | 71

Nick (67).

I don't know about that, but this from the article points out the complications of a Polish force entering Western Ukraine.

" However, the public sentiment there is certainly not pro-Polish either. Until 1939, Ukraine’s eight western provinces were part of Poland, which pursued a strict nationalistic policy of “Polonization,” banning the use of the Ukrainian language there. Attempts by the local Ukrainian underground to resist this policy failed and resulted in mass-scale arrests. Small wonder that in 1939, many local residents greeted the Red Army with flowers. Until now, the Poles consider Ukrainian Lviv one of their cultural centers, calling the region the “lost eastern poviats” (district, Polish). Now it looks like Warsaw may get a chance to recoup itself."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2022 15:49 utc | 72

The info-bomb went off
The amount of pro-Ukro and anti-Russia propaganda now flooding social media is mind-boggling. My newsfeed on LinkedIn yesterday was telling. No way this avalanche could simply "develop" of its own. This appears as a well prepared and heavily sponsored info-bomb, and I believe Zelenskyy knew he was pulling the trigger when he announced his intention to acquire nuclear weapons.

For the somewhat informed observer, it appears as if the biorobots (MSM-brainwashed ordinary citizens) just got their "whom-to-hate" microchip exchanged. Pendemic chip out, Putin chip in. The identification as I hate anti-vaxxers and "Querdenker" got replaced by I hate Putin and "Putin-Versteher" and off you go again.

Posted by: Matthias | Feb 28 2022 15:49 utc | 73

The narratives have been set up. Expectations are being set. The ball is in play. The logic of this conflict has become:

Ukrainian military collapse = massive psychological blow to western financial system.

Posted by: Cesare | Feb 28 2022 15:50 utc | 74

While I have no doubt that most would be happy to see regime change in Russia, I suspect that the goal of sanctions imposed on Russia is to encourage Russian withdrawal from Ukraine and cessation of attacks on that country.

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Feb 28 2022 15:52 utc | 75

A question I have.

Where are the RUSSIAN SNIPERS taking out Key Ukrainian Political & Military Targets in the cities of Kiev, Kharkiv etc?

If you want to concentrate the minds of your opponents you put the fear of god into them - such as picking them off one-by-one.

If the RUSSIAN SNIPERS were picking off ONE Ukrainian Political or Military Leader per day how do you think the Ukrainians would approach negotiations?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 28 2022 15:53 utc | 76

I'm worried I didn't close that bold properly.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 28 2022 15:53 utc | 77

if the West was interested in Russian withdrawal and cessation of attacks, it would not have fomenteda coup in 2014, nor would it have continued the push to get Ukraine admitted to NATO.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 28 2022 15:55 utc | 78

So much for cutting Russia from SWIFT

Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina (pictured) said on Monday that SPFS, the Russian equivalent of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, will be able to replace it.

Russian financial infrastructure will work "smoothly," she said at a press conference, adding that all banks will fulfill obligations to customers and that international payment systems cards continue to work in the country.

The central bank will take all steps to maintain financial and price stability, Nabiullina stressed, specifying also that it did not intervene in foreign exchange markets today due to restrictions on reserves. The bank will be very flexible and will use any necessary tools, according to its leader.


SWIFT counterpart will be able to replace it - Russia

Posted by: Down South | Feb 28 2022 15:55 utc | 79

Posted by: Julian | Feb 28 2022 15:53 utc | 78


If the RUSSIAN SNIPERS were picking off ONE Ukrainian Political or Military Leader per day how do you think the Ukrainians would approach negotiations?

Hard to do when they're all in underground bunkers (or way over there in Lvov).


Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 28 2022 15:57 utc | 80

While I have no doubt that most would be happy to see regime change in Russia, I suspect that the goal of sanctions imposed on Russia is to encourage Russian withdrawal from Ukraine and cessation of attacks on that country.

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Feb 28 2022 15:52 utc | 77

You have that arse about. For quite some time before hand it was obvious US wanted a Russian invasion so they could sanction Russia and force EU into sanctions. I think though, US got more invasion than it was expecting.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 28 2022 16:00 utc | 81

How many brigades does Ukraine have in all? In other words what fraction of the army is located near the Donbass?

The German increase in military budget can mean more than one thing, it can mean the ability to run an independent course, independent of US. Though that could be wishful thinking.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Feb 28 2022 16:02 utc | 82

Just guessing like most here, but whatever direction the empire heads, it will be decided by profits. The "guiding light" of our latest empire. We here in America, never do the right thing, we do the $ thing.

Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 28 2022 16:05 utc | 83

Why hasn't the UN called out the Ukrainians violations of International Humanitarian Law, specifically Ukrainian forces using civilian areas as human shields to set up artillery, its basically the same tactics as the terrorists used in Syria. It must be called out, the firing of rocket launchers from civilian areas, in the hope that that the Russian forces return fire which leads to civilian casualties must not be condoned.

The hypocrisy of the UN is staggering, I've had my eyes further opened with regards to to the EU/Nato and the UN in recent days, I knew they were biased, cunning and corrupt but recent event has shown just how biased, cunning and corrupt they really are, and its not a pretty picture.

I'll find it really difficult to trust anything they say in future after the last few days.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2022 16:11 utc | 84

it will be decided by profits. The "guiding light"
Posted by: vetinLA | Feb 28 2022 16:05 utc | 85

---

Rest assured that the motivation is minimizing losses ... a much stronger stimulus than profit.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 28 2022 16:17 utc | 85

The demands for a Swift exclusion of Russia are not new: the step was already considered after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Even then, however, there was concern that Russia could further isolate itself and, for example, bind itself more closely to China.

Both states have already built their own payment systems to become independent of Swift. The Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) only connects around 400 almost exclusively Russian banks. However, exclusion from the Swift procedure should give this initiative new urgency.

The most important partner of SPFS is China, whose own cross-border interbank payment system Cips (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) is connected to the Russian SPFS. China and Russia have a strong interest in establishing their own payment systems internationally as quickly as possible.

Russia and China are moving closer together in times of crisis. Both aim to reduce their economic dependence on the US dollar and create a payment system that is no longer dominated by the West. An exclusion from SWIFT should economically burden Russia in the short term, but at the same time act as a turbo for its own SPFS and Cips systems.


What consequences Russia's Swift exclusion has

Posted by: Down South | Feb 28 2022 16:20 utc | 86

After the end of the Cold War™, the peoples of the 'west' were promised a 'peace dividend,' along with peace. Instead 'the west' ratcheted up pressure against the former Soviet Union, first through exploitation, then after Putin and his allies put an end to that after the disgrace of Yeltsin, 'the west' went to economic cold war 2.0 in earnest (from the betrayal of Nato expansion, the hoax of Russia-gate, and the unrelenting demonization of Putin as a Bond villain,) which over time and billions and billions of dollars and rubles has resulted in the current 'western' caused crisis in Ukraine.

There is only one aggressor in the last century of world history - and that is the for-profit empire of slavery that began with tea and spice, and now has commodified all life on the planet.

If you want Regime Change anywhere but 'the west' you have been swallowed by an Orwellian wet dream.

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 28 2022 16:24 utc | 87

Looks like China's chip industry just got another boost (however painful this will be for Russia):


The Russian media outlets also claim that the suspensions have been confirmed by the Association of Russian Developers and Electronics Manufacturers (ARPE). Additionally, Chinese IT companies are said to have been notified by Intel that sales to Russia have been banned.
...

The extent of the halted sales is currently unclear. The new export restrictions are primarily aimed at chips for military purposes or dual-use chips that could be used for both civilian and military purposes. That means sales of most consumer-focused chips, like AMD's Ryzen and Intel's Core chips, likely won't be impacted. However, it is widely expected that there will be a temporary halt for all semiconductor sales to Russia as companies work to decide which products and customers are impacted. Additionally, the US DoC has added 49 Russian companies to the Entity List.

The new US export restrictions are akin to the sanctions leveled at Huawei, but they apply to an entire country — a first...

However, Russia's domestically-designed chips from companies like Baikal, MCST, Yadro, and STC Module are actually manufactured by Taiwan-based TSMC, which has agreed to also suspend sales to the country to comply with the new export restrictions.

That means Russia's supply of homegrown chips could also be cut off.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-amd-nvidia-tsmc-russia-stop-chip-sales-ukraine-sanction

This will probably drive collaborative chip innovation projects between Russia and China, accelerating the breakup of the Western chip monopoly.

The only question is whether this happens before our collective chips get fried ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 28 2022 16:26 utc | 88

But the Russian side does all 10 points as the West does.

1.) Russia never wanted to invade.
2.) Ukraine and NATO are solely responsible for the situation escalating to war.
3.) The enemy consists of drug addicts and Neo Nazis.
4.) Russia's national security interests are a noble cause.
5.) People here post videos of Ukrainian militias committing atrocities, while the Russian army is always too humanitarian to commit atrocities except by accident.
6.) NATO and Zelensky made nuclear threats.
7.) Contrary to Western reports, the Russian army is sustaining minimal casualties.
8.) We have truck caravans circling the US embassy.
9.) The reformation of "Rus" with White Russia and Little Russia is sacred.
10.) The thousands of arrested protestors are traitors.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Feb 28 2022 16:27 utc | 89

Tulsi Gabbard in a appeal to reason last night urged the "west" to formally make Ukraine a neutral country with no military forces and to make the predominately Russian areas independent in all but name.

Of all the people who ran in 2020, only Tulsi is competent enough to rule this empire. Too bad the the 3LAs have vetoed the proposition of competent leadership. Too bad also that the DNC & DNC-sycophants excoriated Tulsi before completely censoring her tot he polite applause of most D-only-voters.

The only group in the USA that tolerates Tulsi's competence is populist R's...my true-blue friends describe Gabbard as a Hindu-Fascist [per the DNC's Ministry-of-Truth]. Always fun to watch my woke friends openly engage in racism directed at dark-skinned people.

This great empire of mine can still save itself but, only if the 3LAs allow competent leaders to take the reigns of power...and then not assassinate them every-time they drive by anything that looks like a "grassy knoll".

Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 28 2022 16:32 utc | 90

Without Russian energy for its industries, how's Germany going to build up its military?

Global Times Infographic, "US human rights violations in 2021".

For those who missed it, Crooke's latest.

Cells of the Outlaw US Empire's Terrorist Foreign Legion have surfaced within Russia and had their terrorist attempts foiled by FSB. Here's one report from several I've seen over the past 24 hours.

Kiev officials were to meet with Russia's, arriving by helicopter:

"'The Kiev delegation arrived at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to hold talks with Russia,' the president’s office stated on its Telegram channel."

No news of its outcome.

IMO, Macron has forfeited whatever credibility he had with Putin as he calls for a ceasefire while sending Ukraine more weapons and after working so hard to delay/deter Minsk over the last several years.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 28 2022 16:33 utc | 91

@NeiHuem | Feb 28 2022 15:15 utc | 49

Agree. The most painful is to see colleagues and friends mindlessly repeating what they're being told, be outraged on demand, roll over on command.

I indeed have a thought for Ukrainians, must be pretty scary to have the Russians soldiers just outside the window. Perhaps not as scary as the Azov battalion, though.

For Europe, I think History will end up telling, too late unfortunately, to which extent European Union has been a Trojan horse to remove the last fragile bits of power European citizens used to have and offer it to corporations and US Empire.

Posted by: Francil | Feb 28 2022 16:35 utc | 92

I am a bit puzzled about Russia's play nice policy in Ukraine.

As a student of guerrilla warfare I know that in many situations the civil population is sitting on the fence. And whose side they de facto support most is often more determined by how much pressure that side exerts - including punishments for collaborating with the other side - rather than which side they consider most sympathetic.

It looks like Zelensky is playing that game well - not difficult as they have the default position. So say you are a mayor of some town and the Russians are coming. You can collaborate or you can resign as the mayor of Bidyansk was reported to have done. An important factor will be how you evaluate how the fighting is going and what the outcome will be. If you collaborate and later on Zelensky's rule is restored you are likely to lose your job and maybe even be prosecuted or experience other trouble. But if you don't collaborate it is unlikely that the Russians will do much against you. Something similar applies to the common citizen.

I would like to know how this game is played in Ukraine.

Posted by: Wim | Feb 28 2022 16:35 utc | 93

Posted by: Wim | Feb 28 2022 16:35 utc | 95


As a student of guerrilla warfare I know that in many situations the civil population is sitting on the fence. And whose side they de facto support most is often more determined by how much pressure that side exerts

As a student of guerrilla warfare myself, I've always thought it obvious that not playing nice with the population results in radicalization of the population against the invader's interests.

Every atrocity committed by Russia will result in radical converts to a Ukrainian resistance. That's why they're playing nice.

This was the lesson of Vietnam, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and many others.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 28 2022 16:39 utc | 94

I am a bit puzzled about Russia's play nice policy in Ukraine.
Posted by: Wim | Feb 28 2022 16:35 utc | 95

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It is a world stage. Russia is acting for the hearts and minds of more people than just the civil population of Ukraine.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 28 2022 16:41 utc | 95

so, I quibble with a couple of points; last first; the US NATO have NOT shown they're willing to fight, to the contrary. This was always, in part a replay of 08 where Putin sought to expose NATO's promises as hollow; and again, we're really only offering hope and prayers, not blood and guts.

You also get something wrong in the economics; the US/EU/World are long in a financial bubble with no obvious prospects, and like in 07, they turned to commodities; commodities were spiking before this, and certainly Wall St (did you see the jump Friday?) is NOT urging caution but cheering the opportunity to speculate further. This WILL drive us into contango; where the spot price is lower than the futures price; that means the Future's holder has to essentially pay the difference along with every barrel sold; this is unlike Wall St's other investments, where they simply lose the free money they put in. But, this need for cash on a bad bet will eventually get refused, and the whole mess cascades; and we'll get the correction that's been coming from too loose Fed Policies, coupled with Trump's tax cuts and demands for Fed Accomodation under the "greatest economy ever" Biden too kept asking for sugar, and as we were about to crash, the candy of war arose.

Today, I noted that it's Ukraine that has refused to talk with Russia regarding it's Minsk2 agreements, the Missile platforms in Poland and the Baltics are another, as well as these calls to move NATO continually East are red lines for Russia. It seems Putin has been trying to press on these issues but we've sat on them. The propaganda here is strong. I never knew "Annexation" was such a dirty word, ignoring the Carter Center oversaw that election where 95% of Crimeans voted to join Russia. ANNEX, soo scary.

Posted by: ScottinDallas | Feb 28 2022 16:41 utc | 96

Good luck to Germany trying to develop their own armaments industry. The AngloZionist MIC will not allow them to. That simple. It will be like Canadas shortlived attempt to build a first rate fighter back in the '60s. The US MIC will tolerate no competition...

Germany and the EU are in deep Deep State doodoo.Their future is bleak - very expensive fuel and very expensive food... and all to support the (((chosenite))) Zelinsky who usually shows in an Israeli Level IIIa helmet. And immediately runs to Israeli to "mediate" with Russia.

I think Putin is no longer in the thrall of Israel which he has been accused of in the past. That ship has sailed...

Posted by: Simplicius | Feb 28 2022 16:42 utc | 97

Canadian Telus network has cut the RTTV America feed over night. RT News livestream is still up on Youtube so far, probably not for much longer.

Posted by: NWWOODS | Feb 28 2022 16:44 utc | 98

Many of us still remember our parents’ or grandparents’ tales of war.

That sentence is mendacious.......he does not relate that most Germans have grandparents who were enthusiastic participants in a barbaric regime which perpetrated unspeakable crimes against non-Germans and created the problems that bedevil Europe today !

Further - Helsinki Final Act was violated in Kosovo.

Further - Ukraine has no recognised borders with Russia. - it failed to renew 1997 Treaty with Russia in 2019 and arbitrarily defined its own borders in 2013. It has never had its borders registered with UNO.

Ukraine has been a criminal folly run by criminals who looted the State and everything else that wasn't screwed down just as the Yeltsin Era in Russia.

Olaf Scholz is a man devoid of intelligence holding together a student politician regime determined to spend money without restraint and seeking any excuse to ditch budgetary restraint - first Covid - now military expenditures to gain acceptance of USA.

What I find remarkable is how much more influence UK has outside EU than inside - it has manipulated Germany into destroying its economy and setting a course for instability and ruin

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 28 2022 16:46 utc | 99

The UN is very involved in the situation, not because there's a war but because there is a war in Europe.

French U.N. Ambassador Nicolas De Rivière announced that there will be a Security Council meeting today on the humanitarian needs in Ukraine. He said France and Mexico will propose a resolution to seek more access to deliver humanitarian aid.

The United Nations General Assembly will meet today for a rare Emergency Special Session to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. and Albania requested a Sunday Security Council meeting to vote to convene the emergency General Assembly session, the first of its kind in 40 years and only the 11th such session in U.N. history. The NATO-cats may get some back-talk on their anti-Russia chatter, who knows. China, India and UAE have abstained on UNSC votes recently and today more countries will be heard from.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 28 2022 16:46 utc | 100

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