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Disarming Ukraine – Day 3
Yesterday the Russian military halted its advance to give time to the Ukrainian president Zelensky to agree to ceasefire talks. The U.S. however told him not to hold such talks and said he should leave Kiev. Up to this morning Russia had received no response to its ceasefire offer and resumed the attack. Zelensky decided to stay in Kiev.
There was little operational news from the ground that could be verified. Despite that lots of claims were made about the progress or non-progress of the Russian campaign. I believe that these claims are nearly all propaganda and will refrain from reproducing them.
Approximate situation today
"Blue dots=Ukraine forces presence/siege of military HQ or control of all main roads around."
Source – bigger
The units from Crimea are moving towards north and east. The eastern group, together with a move from Donbas west, is supposed to surround the Ukrainian units in and around Mariupol. Some Ukrainian units near to Donbas seem to fear getting encircled and are moving out.
There was a Russian attempt to capture another airport by an air assault. It may have failed. I have seen no hard evidence to confirm that in either way.
Russia has moved in more heavy rocket and mortar artillery. The so far rather light touch of the traditionally very strong Russian artillery may well get stronger.
Several European countries are sending weapons to the Ukraine. This is mostly 'small stuff' like machine guns and anti-tank missiles. Throughout the day there were lots of international diplomatic reactions and promises. AP had a live update that catches these.
The idea of kicking Russia out of Swift seems to be still on that table. It would be the beginning of the end of U.S. dollar supremacy.
Cutting Russia off from SWIFT a "matter of days" – euro zone central banker Reuters
The U.S. aim is to create an insurgency in the Ukraine.
The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency – Foreign Affairs
Russia’s Invasion Could Unleash Forces the Kremlin Can’t Control
Since 2015 the CIA has trained Ukrainian groups for exactly that purpose.
CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invades – Yahoo
CIA support for Ukrainian Nazis has a long history.
Op-Ed: The CIA has backed Ukrainian insurgents before. Let’s learn from those mistakes – LA Times
A new Nazi insurgency in eastern Europe is an exceptionally bad idea. Fascist groups form everywhere would join in. A few years from now it may well lead to Nazi terror in many European countries. Have we learned really nothing from the war on Syria and the ISIS campaign?
Melaleuca | Feb 27 2022 11:57 utc | 414
Posted that Ukraine has allegedly filed an application against Russia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ)in The Hague for “manipulating the notion of genocide to justify aggression”.
I find that interesting, and would welcome litigation before the ICJ on legal issues related to Russia’s action in Ukraine – the recognition of the statelets, and the military operation.
– Manipulating the notion of genocide is not a basis for litigation, but violation of the Genocide Convention is. Russia is not committing genocide, it claims that the Ukraine forces are committing genocide against the ethnic Russian citizens of Ukraine. Under the Genocide Convention all states have an obligation to prevent the commission of genocide, including Ukraine.The legal definition of the crime of genocide is the commission of five types of prohibited acts, like killing members of the group, “with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical or racial group as such”. The acts, when proved to have been committed, must be proved to have been committed with the specific intent stipulated in the Convention, in order for there to be genocide. The acts must be directed at the group as such, which means they were committed not in order to kill individual members of the group, but the group itself by killing its members.
It’s a tough crime to prove because of the specific intent.
– Ukraine would need to take Russia to court for violation of a specific international treaty, not the ‘manipulation’ of a legal notion like genocide. If there is a non-aggression treaty, or a friendship treaty or such between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine could claim violation of such a treaty to start litigation, if the Court finds it has jurisdiction.Both Ukraine and Russia are parties to the Court.
– It would be very interesting to hear arguments from both sides before the court.
– – As for Muhamed Sacirbey, former foreign minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina during the war, who was mentioned in one of these posts, I feel obligated for reasons of truth to advise all that he was persecuted for years in the US (whose citizen he is) at the behest of and in the interest of Richard Hoolbroke, because he, Sacirbey, told the world a lot of the facts/truth about the role the US and its partners, in particular the UK, played in enabling the genocide in Srebrenica, which,, genocide, has been legally estabished beyond any doubt.
I am familiar with the evidence, including US documents, which indicate clearly the complicity of the US and Britain, in allowing the attack of Ratko Mladic’s forces on the UN protected areas of Srebrenica and Zepa, in full knowledge of the probability that egregious crimes would be committed, including genocide. The genocide then happened, and the US and Britain, in particular, have done all they can ever since to cover up and bury their complicity in this horrendous crime whose details I am fully familiar with, and everyone can find in the judgements of the Yugoslavia war crimes Tribunal. The most senior Bosnian Serb political and military leleaders, Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, have been sentenced to life for the Srebrenica genocide and other crimes and against humanity and war crimes. The evidence against them is rock solide. Justice has been served.
Russia was always against the Yugoslavia Tribunal and took an unprincipled stand in the Yugoslav war simply sticking with the Serb side regardless of what that side was doing.Tha shows that Russia is not principled and really dedicated to the law, but to its political and geopolitical interests. So let’s not idealise anyone and instead request that everyone, regardless of size, abide by the law, morality and universal principles accepted by the human race.
Posted by: JB | Feb 27 2022 13:16 utc | 426
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