Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 25, 2022

Disarming Ukraine - Day 2

The Russian operations in the Ukraine continue at a moderate pace. Some more troops were committed today. In all the Russian military may have now introduced some 20-40% of its prepared forces.

The Ukrainian military is not so much holding a line but concentrating in and around its bigger cities. It has destroyed some bridges north of Kiev to make an approach more difficult. That will slow down the Russian moves but will not prevent them. Russia's military is famously good at setting up combat bridges.

So far the Russians have used their artillery sparsely. An exception was last night near Kharkiv in the northeast of Ukraine where a strike by multiple launcher artillery systems (MLRS) hit some area target with yet unknown results.

A 13 minutes long video from a highway drive near Kherson, a city north of Crimea, shows nearly 100 destroyed Ukrainian trucks and tanks. These are likely victims of air attacks.

If this map from a Turkish think tank source is correct the Russian troops did not attempt much deeper strikes today but mostly consolidated their frontline.


bigger

This map from Janes shows less progress. But it also has not marked the Donbas area in the southeast which is held by pro-Russian forces.


bigger

Russia's President has called on the Ukrainian military to overthrow its government. I do not think he believes that will happen but it is a possibility so why not call for it.

Facebook now allows to praise Ukrainian Nazi groups like the Azov battalion. This was prohibited with Azov previously being in the same category as ISIS. Now these are 'our guys'.

There are a lot of discussions of sanctions against Russia and every western country is trying to get as much exemptions for its industries as possible . The U.S. has for example exempted everything that has to do with hydrocarbons from its own sanction package. It will still buy Russian oil and will continue to sell drilling equipment to Russia.

The EU countries are still negotiating with themselves. They should be careful with what they do.

Britain has had the stupidity of sanctioning the Russian air carrier Aeroflot. In a counter move Russia prohibited British Airways from flying over Russian territory. Normally all flights from Britain to the Far East cross Russian airspace. These will now have to be redirected to other routes which will significantly increase their flight time and fuel burn.

Russia has threatened 'inconvenient' counter-sanctions to those who sanction it. Overflight rights are only one of the tools it can use.

NATO has said it will continue to deliver weapons, including air defenses, to the Ukraine. NATO does not have any weapons but some NATO countries seem to strive for a larger war. The U.S. seem willing to sacrifice the Ukraine to create a quagmire for Russia.

Syria was also supposed to become a quagmire for Russia when Russia came to its help. It didn't turn out that way.

Posted by b on February 25, 2022 at 18:46 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

No quagmire.
Quick, strategic, efficient.

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Feb 25 2022 18:59 utc | 1

Death to NATO

Posted by: Misotheist | Feb 25 2022 19:00 utc | 2

Quick, strategic, efficient.

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Feb 25 2022 18:59 utc | 1

---

If the Russians have broken the back of Ukrainian logistics there is no need for haste.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 19:02 utc | 3

What do you make of the attempts to set up negotiations, which apparently Russia has agreed with and China supports?

Zelensky claimed this list of Russian demands:

The office of Zelensky announced the demands from Russia to enter negotiations:
1) Disband of all nationalist and neo-Nazi formations;
2) Recognition of Crimea as a Russian territory.
3) Recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk republics as independent republics in the borders of entire Donetsk/Lugansk regions;
4) Neutral status and refuse from NATO aspirations forever;
5) Russian language as a second official language
6) Complete demilitarization.

Posted by: Cesare | Feb 25 2022 19:06 utc | 4

I strongly believe that Russians, known for planning, already have 3 steps ahead gamed out, with enough intelligence from the ground.

This means they know where and who are Russian sympathizers that can be armed and given control of Ukraine, they know which areas are pro-Russian.

Also, they know who and where are pro-western agents, where are points of interests and who needs to be cleansed out.

This will be effective military operation followed with even more clever and effective government/political one. How will it play out, it is too early to tell. But history tough us that Soviets/Russians are very good at placing friendly governments and putting conquered countries back on it's legs.

Posted by: Abe | Feb 25 2022 19:07 utc | 5

Thank you for the the update, b!

Take a look at What Google translate does to Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s speech. Read til the end

Don't know whether google purposely mis-translating it or not. Not "Jedi "but should be pronounced "jue di". It in fact means: "have they thought about the consequence of pushing a major country to the wall?"

Try www.deepl.com, a German online translation. Better than google, IMHO.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 25 2022 19:09 utc | 6

In Syria Russia only had to provide air support and military police to help control the areas after Hezbollah and Syrian government Army had defeated the terrorists in ground fighting.

In Ukraine, Russia also has to supply the ground troops. Wherever the Ukrainians have dug in with will to fight to the death, it will be very costly to defeat them. Russian women are not having enough children to sustain this kind of war.

Posted by: David Sant | Feb 25 2022 19:17 utc | 7


RT reports Russian airspace is blocked to ALL UK aircraft .
Asian airlines are smiling.

Posted by: Dim sim | Feb 25 2022 19:23 utc | 8

NATO doesnt speak for all member states, rather the bloc of US, UK, Baltics and Poland. They have an interest in making Russians and Ukrainians kill and hate eachother. It is their gain. Those states are working on rupturing Germany's trade ties with Russia and isolating Russia politically, on a pile of dead Russians and Ukrainians. Those states that cheer Ukraine on are looking for war, not peace.

Maybe Germany should go for the financial nuclear bomb and agree to cutting Russia off of SWIFT and then use a Russian alternative for clearing the gas payments, because it doesnt have any other choice and thus help create a viable alternative that will make it more difficult for the US to use sanctions as a political tool. The Russian system is called SPFS and guess what? German banks are already connected to SPFS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS

Another alternative is the Chinese CIPS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Payments_System

The biggest point: The EU needs a military component to reduce the influence of the US via NATO. NATO wont be abolished against the US, but it can be pushed to the side, when the EU states run their security through the EU. As long as NATO is the only security organisation to regulate European security, the US will force its policy on European matters to the detriment of us living in Europe.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Feb 25 2022 19:28 utc | 9

@7 David, quit embarrassing yourself.

Posted by: par4 | Feb 25 2022 19:30 utc | 10

Finally - Russia is doing what must be done to exterminate the fascist/nazi backbone that is controlling Ukraine.

We in the West need to exterminate the same vermin in control of our countries.

Posted by: Arius | Feb 25 2022 19:31 utc | 11

Wherever the Ukrainians have dug in with will to fight to the death

Posted by: David Sant | Feb 25 2022 19:17 utc | 7

---

An army marches on its stomach.


Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 19:31 utc | 12


I fear that an effective insurgency will start in Ukraine supported (and supplied) by
the USA. How will Russia then react? This could easily get much much worse.

Posted by: Nick | Feb 25 2022 19:36 utc | 13

Zelensky is a drug addict and he sure behaves like one. He has been saying a lot lately mostly incoherent ridiculous gibberish, from his bunker in Kiev. First, 12 hours in, he wants negotiations and seconds after he calls for the Europeans to take up arms and rush to fight for him.

Then it's negotiations again only to threaten Russians and wondering why his western pals had left him and nobody is coming.

The calls for negotiations ended abruptly a couple of hours ago and we havn't heard of it since. Perhaps Washington gave him a call ...

Posted by: mikhas | Feb 25 2022 19:39 utc | 14

I guess, supplies of arms to Ukraine will have some snags.

First, flights over Ukraine will require RF approval.

Second, transports on the ground can be destroyed from the air.

Smuggling cannot deliver a significant amount.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 25 2022 19:44 utc | 15

"We are deploying elements of the NATO response force on land, at sea and in the air."


NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: "We must stand ready to do more, even if it means we have to pay a price because we are in this for the long haul...We are deploying elements of the NATO response force on land, at sea and in the air."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deXyEY2Lvds

Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 19:48 utc | 16

David Sant @7--

Defeating dug-in troops is much easier nowadays, and Russia has the proper tools to employ to keep its casualties to a minimum. This isn't WW2 as Martyanov fondly reminds readers. Furthermore, the Ukie's supply lines are cut, and they are essentially under siege. Darkness has fallen there as Day 2 comes to a close with temps hovering @0C overnight to @4C during the day regionally with similar conditions to continue for the next week.

As for Germany with its rapidly declining amounts of gas for heating, Berlin's forecast runs from an average low of -2C to a high of 7C with most of Germany being the same for the next week.

There's a very good reason it's called General Winter as the ill-equipped suffer dire consequences.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2022 19:52 utc | 17

Western radio station reporting that both France and Germany are still purchasing Russian fuels, and that they are reluctant not to.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2022 19:52 utc | 18

thanks b....

@5 abe.. i mostly agree with you.. thanks..

@ 17 karlof1... 0c isn't that cold - freezing level.. but hanging out in that weather for an extended period of time, cut off from supplies is much less attractive.. thanks for your post..

Posted by: james | Feb 25 2022 19:57 utc | 19

As Piotr Berman points out, NATO has no means to deliver large weapon shipments to Ukraine. Maybe they should call FedEx?

Sending a plane in would mean a direct military conflict with Russia . . . I assume that would be the purpose? The crazy bastards won't stop until a cruise missile comes through their office windows.

Posted by: Perimetr | Feb 25 2022 19:59 utc | 20

Don't they control the Western border posts? It's not as if Ukraine is completely encircled, they should be able to drive weapon deliveries across from several bordering NATO states.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:08 utc | 21

Don't they control the Western border posts?

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:08 utc | 21

---

In case you missed it, Kiev is blocked from the West.

https://sputniknews.com/20220225/russian-military-sucessfully-conducts-landing-operation-at-gostomel-airfield-outside-kiev---mod-1093367608.html

Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 20:12 utc | 22

So how is this going to play out, exactly?

1. Will Urkaine surrender, or will Ukraine instigate a guerrilla war of attrition against Russia in Kiev and other central/western cities?

2. If the latter, what does Russia do? I assume that the US would *like* to see Russia mired in an urban/guerrilla warfare situation, and that RUssia would like to avoid this.

3. How does Russia partition Ukraine? Does Russia give oblasts opportunity to vote for independence or reunification with Ukraine?

4. How does Russia handle political transition in Ukraine in general? Will Zelensky survive and eventually make it to Lviv where he will run a West Ukraine? Will he not survive? Or will he survive and remain in Kiev?

There seem to be so many contingencies about how this plays out. Russia from the very beginning, it seems, decided that if they were going to act, then they were going to take out the entire Ukraine military and undo, if need be, the entire Ukrainian government.

Doing so is very very risky, as at every level it raises more and more contingencies, and more and more chances for things to go wrong.

Posted by: WJ | Feb 25 2022 20:14 utc | 23

Take a shot every time MSM mentions the USSR or shows Soviet maps.

Take a shot without hands everytime Putin is compared to Stalin.

You'll be pissing on the curtains faster than you can say союз нерушимый республик свободных.

Posted by: Misotheist | Feb 25 2022 20:14 utc | 24

I find it uncomfortable that so many people here are cheering for this invasion and eventual occupation that will most certainly be protracted and viewed on as illegitimate. It's kind of revolting, really.
I guess demilitarization is ok against the whole of Ukraine but not ok when it is imposed on the Palestinians or other occupied peoples. The moral double standard is mind-boggling.

And go ahead, attack me.

Posted by: Norogene | Feb 25 2022 20:18 utc | 25

The US has defended a decision not to include the energy sector in its measures. Meanwhile,
Reuters: European gas prices up
>LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - European gas prices surged more than 30% on Thursday after Russian forces launched an invasion of Ukraine. Europe relies on Russia for around 40% of its natural gas. The bulk comes through pipelines including Yamal, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream 1, which runs directly to Germany, and pipelines through Ukraine. Gas prices however are expected to remain high, and several European countries have pumped billions into measures to shield households from the impact of record high energy costs. . .here
>Yahoo!news: gas flows up
Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine reportedly jumped nearly 40% on Thursday, underscoring the continent's dependence on Putin's energy. . .Figures from Ukraine's grid operator further showed that these flows were expected to rise by about 24% on Friday compared with Thursday's levels, according to Bloomberg. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 25 2022 20:20 utc | 26

I imagine likely
- the president is prepared to yield
- the parliament is prepared to yield
- the people are not overly concerned - given circumstances
- the regular army is ready to yield
however there are extremists (in defense of their nation) and the CIA is needed to maximize cost to Russia so it will drag on

It may collapse but I can imagine it may take time and come at a cost. As long as they dont control borders in some fashion there will be influx of hardware and software - Chechins!

Posted by: jared | Feb 25 2022 20:20 utc | 27

Is Brandon speaking today?
I hope so, today is Bunkum Day (I hereby declare).
Today marks the 202 anniversary of the speech by Rep Felix Walker
that brought forth upon this nation a new word to it's lexicon.

bunkum or bunk
use it often today
wisely or not

Posted by: librul | Feb 25 2022 20:20 utc | 28

In response to too scents@22,

Sure, but there's more to Ukraine than Kiev, particularly if the goal is to create terrorist cells. In theory, you could even have cells operate from across the border in Poland or Moldova, unless Russia establishes strict control of those borders.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:22 utc | 29

@ Norogene 25
Russia understandably can not abide with a NATO presence in its immediate area, it must take action to remove the potential threat. Unlimited NATO expansion to the east into Russia's bailiwick had one purpose only, to threaten Russia. Sometimes it takes a war to straighten out an unacceptable situation.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 25 2022 20:26 utc | 30

The CIA will want to manufacture attrocities.
Russia needs to discuss this and prepare people for the reality.
This is where the war is "lost".

Posted by: jared | Feb 25 2022 20:28 utc | 31

Day one was to be quick movements using surprise, to gain strategic points.
Some did and some didn't. Taking the Crimea area. The first two bridgeheads over the Dnieper were taken, but stopped later on the other side. This could be due to bridges being blown up. Several have been and this has become common, so the explanation for all that bridging equipment seen earlier becomes clear.

So now heavier forces, a second wave, more slow moving but more coordinated, seems to be advancing along the coast towards Mariopol. There is a small breakout from DPR to join up. Note that the biggest concentration of Uke and Azov forces were around Donbass, so this was probably expected to be hard anyway.

The direction towards Odessa is not mentioned, except for "snake island" and an earlier elimination of Uke naval forces. There was a mentioned of a "landing" just beyond Odessa, I wonder what happened to it? Cutting off Ukraine from Sea access is an aim? (Small "steamers beonging to neighbouring countries being hit, is a clear warning not to try to send in "Saboteurs", smuggling arms or anything that might be construed as hostile.
*
It is clear that Putin was not and is certainly not going to want to be trapped into any Urban warfare. Civilian casualties are "counter-productive" to any attempt to find a lasting end result to this war. Kiev using any excuse to get untrained civilians on the front lines, is an unexcusable effort to have casualties for the evening news in the EU and US. (With fleeing "refugees" having walk on, walk off parts). One of the 3 "films that were said to be prepared before any action (as a FF) was one with civilian casualties in Kiev.
****

The supplying of arms to warring parties, makes the supplier a participant. (This is not Buying-selling). NATO is de facto participating in the Ukie war. I am not sure that the UK, Canada etc. realise that they could easily become primary targets in any extension of the war. The object of total war is the destruction of an opposants ability to make war. SO the EU countries and Canada could find themselves targeted as the "rear industrial base".

(In Syria the US was hiding this "discretly" at first, and is now openly stealing oil which it sells to Idlib areas, and arming the SDF itself.)
**

Note that there is very little difference at the moment with a total war - and the US effort to destroy Russia's ability stay independent, their sources of finance and industrial base. Sanctions are sieges, and the more there are, the more open warfare between all the parties must be taken into consideration. Something that Putin will have taken into account is the possibility that it might all go from "bad" to "worse" within the flying time of a Zircon..

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 25 2022 20:32 utc | 32

Sure, but there's more to Ukraine than Kiev
Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:22 utc | 29

---

The conflict isn't about Ukraine. It is about multi-lateralism.

To be sure it is only a single battle in a larger war, but NATO and Atlanticist hegemony cannot hide their nakedness to the developing world.

The cost of maintaining hegemony are rising beyond what is maintainable. Comprehensive humiliation in Ukraine is a very bad look for Empire.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 20:33 utc | 33

the NAZI's are so much in control of Ukraine there is a Jewish President.

It's all laughable - if it wasn't so tragic. Basically, this is just a repeat straight from Putin's mouth for the justification of war 2 days ago the author said would not happen. Having been completely wrong about everything, he now resorts to becoming a performing seal who repeats whatever justification he can find for an unprovoked invasion of a country. But hey - at least Tucker agrees with the author.

People will die and a small country will be swallowed up by another country. The country doing the swallowing hates gays, has a history of incredible anti-semitism (maybe that is why a Jewish President isn't anxious to be swallowed up by Putin) and imprisons political prisoners. But the author is glad it happened.

Either you are against war or are you are not. This was is as repugnant as the Iraq War. You can try to turn these facts upside down but the simple truth a country with 100X the military strength of Ukraine invaded because it could. There is no evidence (hence the absurd talk of NAZI
s) that the people of Ukraine wanted to be swallowed up.


Posted by: NoWar | Feb 25 2022 20:34 utc | 34

From the always interesting George Szamuely:

"There was no way US/UK/NATO military interventions were ever going to stop without Russia’s re-emergence in the world as a rival superpower. And that in turn was never going to happen by repeated presentations of clever arguments."

https://twitter.com/GeorgeSzamuely/status/1497266461747855368

Elsewhere in his Twitter feed:

"That’s what Great Powers do. They don’t act morally, despite all the hot air emanating from the likes of Blinken and Stoltenberg. Great Powers are not restrained by morality, but by rival Great Powers."

Posted by: Emily Dickinson | Feb 25 2022 20:41 utc | 35

@NoWar (34)

Are you 12 years old? Is Putin obliged to keep Western MSM and Intelligence informed on his military plans?

Posted by: bjd | Feb 25 2022 20:44 utc | 36

I imagine that there would be a desire to return the favor of the anti-tank weapons in areas where the enemy is exposed. That would be how limited action grows to global conflict.

Biden bracing for impact.

Would think dont waste time and resources on urban centers at present - they are not going anywhere.

So much for End of History.

Macron is complete failure - but will continue to be well rewarded.

Posted by: jared | Feb 25 2022 20:45 utc | 37

@ NoWar 34
Zerensky (surprisingly) garnered 73% of the vote when he ran as a moderate intending to consider ethnic Russians. But in governing he bent to the neo-Nazis and their NATO friends which brought Ukraine to the present situation.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 25 2022 20:45 utc | 38

@Posted by: Norogene | Feb 25 2022 20:18 utc | 25

Comparing the open concentration camp in Occupied Palestine (the Nazi victim victimizing others in the same way) to the Russian action to overthrow a neo-Nazi government being used as a NATO forward post is utterly ridiculous. The oppressors in Ukraine are the Neo-Nazis and Ukraine ultra-nationalists of the Russian, Hungarian and other minorities. The equivalent would be an invasion of Israel to overthrow the apartheid government there.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 25 2022 20:46 utc | 39

From the video near Kherson that b posted it can be deduced from street signs that the images are 15km east of Kherson and 5km east of Oleshky. Odessa is further 227km away, so the car doing the filming is driving west.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2022 20:49 utc | 40

hmm seems methodical so far. Park some stuff 25km outside Kiev then do the real work, capture the Facebook superstars in the Azov coast. Unfortunately if some of the video/reports are true, looks like the hardliners in UA army got control of at least some "more serious" SRBMs and aren't afraid of sacrificing some of the eastern province population, whom they don't trust anyway, in the course of their deployment and use. Not what anyone wants to see. Hope it stabilizes soon.

Gas markets seem much relieved, and so am I. Current mid term marginal prices of $20/MMbtu being locked in already spell big trouble globally - ie famine in poorest countries. IMO the "restrained" financial blockade action so far is is simply because the situation escalated faster than expected. I'm still anticipating no-holds-barred economic warfare for the rest of the 2020s, with global energy sector definitely to be targeted once US sorts out its own supply. Which it can in 6-12 months if not sooner. Not EU's decision in practice. If anything, there is urgency for US to do this to get at China, before Russia builds out eastbound pipes by mid-late 2020s.

Appreciate the updates.

Posted by: ptb | Feb 25 2022 20:50 utc | 41

In response to too scents@33,

I won't disagree with you, but what does that have to do with NATO states' ability to supply weapons to Ukraine? You seemed to be saying that the encirclement of Kiev would prevent NATO attempts at supplying Ukraine with arms from across the border. As I've said, Ukraine is more than the fate of Kiev in regard to the ongoing military operation, no matter its context in the overall geopolitical conflict.

Bigger problem is that most of its military is tied up in the East, but even that isn't fatal. The Ukie government has been handing out assault rifles to anyone who wants one, including kids and teenagers. They've removed age limits on mandatory conscription for their Volkssturm cosplay. All that's missing is that terrorist... I mean freedom fighter groups start flooding in from across Western & Southern borders supplied with NATO weapons. I read a comment over at the Saker which posited that Lvov will act the part of Ukraine's Idlib, which might be a prescient read of the situation.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:52 utc | 42

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said goodbye to European leaders Thursday during a video chat — telling them that “this might be the last time you see me alive,” according to reports.
So much for "ironclad unwavering" support. Did he actually believe Biden and Blinken?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 25 2022 20:54 utc | 43

This may be old news now, but in light of this commenter's speculation the other day about next moves, it seems clear that Russia did not wait to see whether Ukraine would be fast-tracked into NATO membership. Russia decided to take matters into its own hands and foreclose that possibility.

The concern now is whether Russia will consider NATO members giving material support to Ukraine - even if NATO itself does not do so - as participation in the conflict. Apparently Putin's assets are also going to be frozen. Putin has stated that he would consider that to be an act of war. Thus it seems the brinkmanship will continue.

Posted by: Cynica | Feb 25 2022 20:56 utc | 44

@ Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:52 utc | 42

Those assault rifles can point in any direction.

Posted by: jared | Feb 25 2022 20:57 utc | 45

Russians win battle but Neocons win war

I'm not faulting Putin, he was in a lose/lose position. If he did nothing, the Neocons would have destroyed Russia but now they are saying, 'see we told you Putin was Hitler'.

All kinds of silly memes are getting MSM coverage ...
1. Russian tank rolls over car in Kyiv while person is inside it (barbaric!).
2. Ukrainians inflicting heavy losses despite no help from NATO (Warsaw ghetto uprising all over again)

It is no longer polite to suggest anything less than Putin is Hitler!

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Feb 25 2022 20:57 utc | 46

what does that have to do with NATO states' ability to supply weapons to Ukraine?
Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 20:52 utc | 42

---

NATO supplies weapons to enforce the Monroe Doctrine.

What will the pink tide in Latin America think?

Maybe NATO' actions, and Ukraine's inability to repay its debts, encourage Latin America to default on its debts.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 20:59 utc | 47

If the Banderites want to take it to the level of urban warfare, and the plan is to send 40,000 troops (and I assume (although maybe I should not) commensurate equipment and supplies), perhaps it is / will soon be time for Shoygu & Associates to show them how Operations Menu and Barrel Roll should have been conducted?

Posted by: William Haught | Feb 25 2022 21:00 utc | 48

And apparently the shite will not stop until the two factions of the Zionist, neoconservative, neoliberal, corporatist Demopublican Party of the Unhinged States is over a barrel.

Posted by: William Haught | Feb 25 2022 21:02 utc | 49

NoWar @34

You're thinking too much in the present. At an emotional level I agree with you.

But from following geopolitical events for nearly 50 years, I believe Putin Lavrov & the Russian government didn't want this war either.

It was forced on them. War now or NATO will keep pushing & there will be nukes 5' from Moscow & war later would fry us all.

I could write a thesis of details to support that analysis but of you skin back & read b over past years that would give enough.

This probably wouldn't have happened under Trump. Not that he is some genius but because a different faction of US Deep-State was behind him, the more aggressive faction controls the demented puppet, as it did the Bushes, Clinton, Obama - right back to LBJ.

The globalist imperialist faction of the US Deep State - what Eisenhower warned of 'The Military Industrial Complex' has been mostly in control since the assassination of JFK. As Zbigniew Brezinzski wrote in his book 'The Grand Chessboard' - Russia must be disintegrated into smaller statelets in order to be controlled.

This is GHWBush's NWO. It's not a theory they've told us repeatedly for decades.

Russia's been listening. Putin did everything to avoid this and keep a strong sovereign nation. In early years repeatedly asked for Russia to join NATO.

But in the end he & the Siloviki (patriotic Russian military deep state that put him in power) realised NATO & globalists would not allow them have both. Either become subservient& give your rich resources cheaply like Africa, Latin America, Middle East - or suffer colour revolution & disintegration.

BTW Ukraine had an invasion force military since mid 2021 assembled in Donbas & started the bombing & invasion a week before Russia fired a shot.

Posted by: PJB | Feb 25 2022 21:04 utc | 50

In response to jared@45,

Sure. I've already seen video of one case where a family in a jeep was shot up by armed civilians, because they suspected that these were Russian saboteurs. They of course filmed the event themselves, congratulating each other for a job well done over their dead bodies. Apparently they heard them speaking in Russian at a gas station. So you're absolutely right, these weapons will be pointing in every direction.

Similarly, I've seen a few cases of, apparently, Ukrainian armed forces chasing and killing each other, explaining it as cleaning up Russian infiltrators. If I were to guess, these are signs of disagreements regarding surrender and political orientation with, presumably, radical nationalists taking up the slack.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 21:06 utc | 51

Looks like the Azov battalion and friends will adopt guerrilla tactics to keep the fight going. Wonder what Russia is planning for the end game?

Posted by: bolangi | Feb 25 2022 21:06 utc | 52

Will/have the Russians announced an air and maritime interdiction area? One supposes if NATO wants to send air defense weapons/systems, they want to do airlift.

Posted by: erik | Feb 25 2022 21:08 utc | 53

Russia's only hope in terms of keeping Ukraine under control lies in arming Ukrainians. De-nazification means levelling the playing field for that.

Posted by: Klondike | Feb 25 2022 21:09 utc | 54

NoWar | Feb 25 2022 20:34 utc | 34

For your information;
"The Ukrainian elephant in the room has the same insignia as Nationaal-Socialistische Beweging (Dutch Nazi party) 2nd SS Panzer Division Das Reich, 34th SS Grenadier Division Landstorm Nederland, 4th SS Polizei Panzergrenadier Division & etc."

Plus Topol-M ICBMs have been seen on the move in Moscow.
A Turkish large capcity aircraft is landing in Poland next to the border - a delivery of fresh Baktyars?

Just sayin....
Putin is not going to back down.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 25 2022 21:09 utc | 55

The UK banning of Aeroflot must be another case of UK elite ongoing degradation and senility. The blowback on all UK carriers will be huge, why would anyone fly to or from Asia with them? They will soon be cutting routes and jobs on what is probably their most profitable business area. I assume that they cannot go over Iran either (if so Iran should block them in sympathy). Azerbaijan just "cemented an alliance" with Russia, so that would close the eye of the needle for UK airlines to fly through (Black Sea, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Tajikstan). Most of the "Stans" are with Russia and I am sure that the Afghans would not be too accommodating. Another win for China (airlines)!

https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance

Point 4 stipulates that the two countries, “holding the same or similar positions on topical international issues, deepen constructive cooperation.” Point 7 obliges them to “refrain from any actions that, in the opinion of one of the Parties, damage the strategic partnership and allied relations of the two states.”

As per point 25, Azerbaijan and Russia agree to “refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Party.” Azerbaijani officials have promoted the idea that gas from their fields in the Caspian Sea could act as a replacement for Europe should Russia cut off its own energy exports as a consequence of the Ukraine conflict.

Erdogan is all pissed that his imperial dreams keep getting cancelled by Putin, Erdogan spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodomyr Zelenskiy, on February 24, telling him that Turkey supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity. “The Russian operation against Ukraine is a blow to regional peace and security. It is unacceptable, we reject it,” Erdogan said.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 25 2022 21:09 utc | 56

@Norwegian | Feb 25 2022 20:49 utc | 40

From the video near Kherson that b posted it can be deduced from street signs that the images are 15km east of Kherson and 5km east of Oleshky. Odessa is further 227km away, so the car doing the filming is driving west.

At 1:59 in the video, there is a large sign 5km before Oleshky. You can see the exact location of the sign in Google Street view here. Coordinates 46.6090N 32.8489E

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2022 21:11 utc | 57

Day 2 of the invasion and I still feed Putin screwed up. Asking his military the monumental task of invading, neutralizing and controlling such a huge country as Ukraine is nuts.

Hope Im wrong. Because if Im right this is going to bw painful for all. Russians wont be able to backtrack. They will have to keep pushing till we see thousands of dead civilians and possible escalation to nukes.

Really, really hope Im wrong.

Posted by: comandante | Feb 25 2022 21:13 utc | 58

In response to too scents@47,

Even if a second front was opened in Latin America, with an active combat phase against American interests, I don't think it would change the tactical situation on the ground in Ukraine.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 21:15 utc | 59

I don't think it would change the tactical situation on the ground in Ukraine.
Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 21:15 utc | 59

---

Who is going to pay for it? The Chinese?

Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 21:17 utc | 60

Re.: Sanctions.

According to the once reliable Guardian,

the sanctions put in place over the past couple of days by the EU, US, UK, Japan and Canada are unlikely to have any significant effect on the Russian economy or its financial stability.

There is also an admission that attacking Russia financially would be detrimental to the west, and one think tanker is quoted as saying, “... while I don’t say it is impossible to envisage Russia being barred from the Swift system, it is a nuclear option that means you exterminate yourself along with your enemy.”

Posted by: farm ecologist | Feb 25 2022 21:24 utc | 61

In response to comandante@58,

So far, Russian military is dealing with this monumental task very professionally. Even so, I agree with your pessimism since I lack the vision to predict the end-game. Even without backtracking or escalating, I don't see a total military defeat and capitulation of Ukraine as in itself resolving anything. Nor would total military defeat and humiliation of NATO resolve the global stand-off without further political reformation.

The only comfort is that I may be too short-sighted to see the plan in action in its entirety.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 21:25 utc | 62

If the Russians have broken the back of Ukrainian logistics there is no need for haste.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2022 19:02 utc | 3

I'd argue that there is definitely a need for haste because it's the information war that they will lose (for the rubes, who are the vast majority of "news" and "information" consumers) the longer they stay in Ukraine.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 25 2022 21:25 utc | 63

US peaked in South Vietnam with over 500,000 troops on the ground. Plus air supremacy. Plus a friendly comprador government. South Vietnam back then had a population less than half the population of Ukraine. US made zero progress.

Russia has not even put that many boots in country yet. When at full strength they will have perhaps one third of the American expeditionary force in Vietnam. They are fighting with one hand behind their back as they do everything possible to prevent civilian casualties. For real and not just pretend. Much progress has been made in two days.

There are reports of entire battalions and regiments surrendering. At least one report of a battalion switching sides. Perhaps that is only war propaganda. Or not. Many posted videos of surrendered Ukraine troops. Displaying POWs is a war crime and Russia follows the law. They are not POWs. Russia talks to them, determines they are not Nazis, asks them to sign a piece of paper, sends them home. In every video it is plain as can be the Ukie conscripts are not the least bit afraid of the Russians.

The Nazis have no plan but to die in a blaze of glory and join the Heros. Russia is making progress because they have the respect or even the support of the population.

Ukraine now has no Air Force, no navy, rapidly dwindling supply of artillery and vehicles, limited access to outside world, no functioning central government. They are urging civilians to use Molotov’s, carbines, shotguns. They have no path to victory or even a draw.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 25 2022 21:27 utc | 64

This Ukrainian driver was born under a lucky star: video.

Posted by: S | Feb 25 2022 21:30 utc | 65

comandante @58--

Your mistake is assuming Putin is a dictator; he isn't. The decision was made collectively, i.e. democratically. Indeed, the entire process began with the Duma vote that was completely based on Russian public opinion. Again, ignorance of Russia raises its ugly head.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2022 21:31 utc | 66

jared 31;

I think you are correct but, I suspect that is why the Ruskies are, for the most part, surrounding/besieging cities...they don't want to give the 3LAs operatives an opportunity to false-flag an incident that will create a political climate where the "leaders" in Europe are obliged to sacrifice their citizens/countries upon the alter of DC imposed "sanctions".

Can the Russ avoid this, rather obvious trap? Dunno but, so far, the Ruskies have shown admirable verve in their battle plan. I think the encirclement from the north & south instead of directly heading west shows that this thing is being run by competent military leaders, unlike their opposites, DC's armchair pols calling shots. DC's "military thinkers" are a group largely composed of those who have never subjected themselves to military discipline, scholarship and training. [Cheney's idiotic "war plans" springs to mind here].

No doubt, since Z. Brzezinski, the USA's war planning includes maximizing long term destabilization/impoverishment of countries and peoples who have chafed under DC's yoke; let's see if the Russ are clever enough to slip the one trick pony's noose.

Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 25 2022 21:31 utc | 67

@karlof

I never said Putin is a dictator. He is the undisputed leader of Russia and ultimately the decision to go in was on him. Thinking otherwise is silly.

Again I pray I am wrong. But I have a feeling Puttin screwed up.

Posted by: comandante | Feb 25 2022 21:34 utc | 68

"Nato: Russia must immediately end the war with Ukraine, withdraw all forces from its territory and return from the path of aggression"

It seems Nato intends to win the war with tough talk. Nobody is afraid anymore.

Posted by: Tito | Feb 25 2022 21:35 utc | 69

farm ecologist @61--

Despite the source, thanks for providing it as it confirms my analysis--note the definition of "nuclear option."

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2022 21:36 utc | 70

Crackpot analysis

Posted by: Putin | Feb 25 2022 21:37 utc | 71

comandante @68--

Yes, you're entitled to your opinion, but you're 100% incorrect and show you have no understanding of how government operates.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2022 21:38 utc | 72

Nato and Belgium announce sending troops to Nato's Eastern border. Same playbook as in Syria? to provide 'humanitarian' assistance and weapons to "insurgents" cannon fodder.

Posted by: Anony | Feb 25 2022 21:42 utc | 73

@karlof

I respect your opinion but respectfully disagree 1000%.

If this Russian outing is a failure this is 100% on Putin. To say otherwise is inmensely naive.

Cheers.

Posted by: comandante | Feb 25 2022 21:42 utc | 74

Propaganda fever: Jews seek refuge in Synagogue
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-jews-seek-refuge-synagogues-100018433.html

This yahoo story makes me want to throw up. They use the words 'Ukrainian' whenever Jews are treated properly and change it to 'Russian' when they are persecuted even though it was local Ukrainian collaborators who did the horrors. BTW I am certain that there is anti-Semitism in Russia. All I am asking for is don't put on a friggin' play.

So yes, we have Jews, huddling in fear in Synagogues because the Russians are coming - bleh ....

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Feb 25 2022 21:43 utc | 75

Either you are against war or are you are not.

Posted by: NoWar | Feb 25 2022 20:34 utc | 34

I hate violence and consider myself a pacifist, but not to the extent that I think self-defence is immoral.

The US and its allies have been responsible for more death and destruction than perhaps anybody else in human history, and they won't stop unless somebody stands up to them. The Ukraine Government has allowed itself to be led into an extremely stupid and dangerous situation, transforming the country into a US proxy state. I feel sorry for most of the people who live there.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Feb 25 2022 21:46 utc | 76

@ Stonebird | Feb 25 2022 20:32 utc | 32... good post.. no, i don't think UK, Canada etc. realize that they could easily become primary targets in any extension of the war. i don't believe they are smart enough to see this.............. yet...

@ Roger | Feb 25 2022 20:46 utc | 39... thanks roger... a breathe of sanity!

@ Christian J. Chuba | Feb 25 2022 20:57 utc | 46.. it bears repeating.. there is the propaganda war - there was never any issue the west would always win this war... then their is the issue of facts on the ground based on war... that is where it ultimately counts as i see it.. all the hoopla about crimea and where are we 8 years later? who won? the answer seems clear enough to me..

@ farm ecologist | Feb 25 2022 21:24 utc | 61... for once i agree with that shitty rag! thanks..

@ Posted by: Tito | Feb 25 2022 21:35 utc | 69 quote - "It seems Nato intends to win the war with tough talk. Nobody is afraid anymore." score a win for propaganda and all else is toast!

Posted by: james | Feb 25 2022 21:48 utc | 77

RE: William Haught | Feb 25 2022 21:00 utc

Come to think of it, think of the propaganda victory in the West. To put the screws to the European unincorporated territories of the Unhinged States, do they care if they sacrifice 40,000 of their own naive loyal just enlisted teenagers.

Posted by: William Haught | Feb 25 2022 21:54 utc | 78

???

Posted by: William Haught | Feb 25 2022 21:55 utc | 79

For those discussing possibility of "guerrilla warfare" and some stuff like that - it won't work.

Insurgency only work if local civilian population supports it. Mosts of people in Ukraine, who are not pro Russian, are definitely fed up with Ukie Nazi-Zionist government and wan't them gone, so they can live in piece.

So only most radical pro-nazi population from western parts might be up to any form of insurgency, but they are too few and Russia don't care about that part of Ukraine, they will let west annex them and cause headache for them.

Posted by: Abe | Feb 25 2022 21:56 utc | 80

Update from Russell Bentley
Day Z+3 Russian liberation /de-nazification of Ukraine

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2022 21:56 utc | 81

@Posted by: NoWar | Feb 25 2022 20:34 utc | 34

Zelensky quickly learnt that he was a puppet serving at the wishes of the Neo-Nazis and ultranationalists and the oligarch Kolomoisky who lives in Switzerland and spends time in the US whilst sucking money out of Ukraine. Your comment about anti-semitism is a slur and an intentional misreading of history - Imperial Russia per-1917 was very much anti-semitic, the Soviet Union and the Russia that followed it are not. Zhirinovsky, the darling of the West is an anti-semite but no one in the West seems to care. This war is also not anything like the Iraq war, Iraq was no threat to a US which wanted to dominate the Middle East and North Africa while destroying the civilian infrastructure of multiple nations.

This is what neo-Nazi power looks like:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/

"The DC establishment’s standard defense of Kiev is to point out that Ukraine’s far right has a smaller percentage of seats in the parliament than their counterparts in places like France. That’s a spurious argument: What Ukraine’s far right lacks in polls numbers, it makes up for with things Marine Le Pen could only dream of—paramilitary units and free rein on the streets."

"The deputy minister of the Interior—which controls the National Police—is Vadim Troyan, a veteran of Azov and Patriot of Ukraine. In 2014, when Troyan was being considered for police chief of Kiev, Ukrainian Jewish leaders were appalled by his neo-Nazi background. Today, he’s deputy of the department running US-trained law enforcement in the entire nation. Earlier this month, RFE reported on National Police leadership admiring Stepan Bandera—a Nazi collaborator and Fascist whose troops participated in the Holocaust—on social media. The fact that Ukraine’s police is peppered with far-right supporters explains why neo-Nazis operate with impunity on the streets."

Posted by: Roger | Feb 25 2022 21:57 utc | 82

Vidéo begins 46.612536,32.868752 and finished crossing the Dniepr River on E97 to Kherson. Most of vehicule just abandoned, only 10% with strikes. Not an offensive convoy.

Posted by: StWf | Feb 25 2022 21:57 utc | 83

Posted by: Norogene | Feb 25 2022 20:18 utc | 25:

I find it uncomfortable that so many people here are cheering for this invasion and eventual occupation that will most certainly be protracted and viewed on as illegitimate.

Not that I care much how you'd feel about anything, but here I believe you read the cheering wrongly. People here are not cheering for the invasion. People here are cheering for the demise of an ugly hegemon as manifested by this military episode.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 25 2022 21:58 utc | 84

What if the "military" targets included biolabs? There are reuted to be no less than 15 US (CIA) run bioloabs in Ukraine out of 300 or so worldwide. What are they all doing? Why are there so many near Russia and China?

Now The Expose in the UK has done an analysis of the known biolab sites and Russian targeting of missile attacks om Ukraine. The link is here.

The Expose was the site that first published research from data in the US VAERS database on adverse vaccine results using batch number for Covid vaccines which showed that some batches were producing 5,000 or more deaths while others had none. Across each of the pharma companies this was repeated with the timing showing that they were taking it in turns to release deadly batches.

Maybe the reason that Putin is only now talking to Zelensky is that he's been waiting for proof that Ukraine is involved in WMD research and development. We know that he wanted to do the nuclear stuff. Take it as a given that this is already happening.

So if Putin can prove that the Empire of Lies is also responsible for its biolabs producing COVID and who knows what else that will completely change world opinion on the reasons for his attack on Ukraine. Might put to rest a few other lies too such as what happened to MH17.

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Feb 25 2022 22:00 utc | 85

Breif description of the sanctions devised by Russia's Senate. Russia has decided to continue supplying Europe with gas, "Matviyenko has also said that Russia will remain a reliable gas supplier for Europe despite measures taken by the US and Germany...," although more details are required than this general statement.

Outlaw US Empire sanctions have avoided the cessation of Russian hydrocarbon imports; but with Putin likely to be sanctioned, IMO Russia will cut off its shipments and other strategic exports. If that occurs, I expect diesel to break $5/gal by the end of March; the current national average is $3.979/gal. Gasoline is another matter; for example, California's average is $4.793 with several counties already over $5 and one closing in rapidly on $6. I linked to an inflation report on the open thread where it's now @10% and climbing.

Russia of course knows which nation is the driver for all the chaos--the Outlaw US Empire--thus its continuation of gas deliveries to Europe. IMO, Russia would be foolish not to cease all its exports to the Empire now since it will eventually need to do so.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2022 22:05 utc | 86

Curious as to how this will proceed. And wether Russia will only defeat and disarm the army and leave or occupy it. Saw videos and reports of a 10.000 man contingent from Chechenya on its way to Ukraine. So I think he will pacify the east en leave the West to the West.

Read a report that the Ukraine airforce performed an attack on Rostov military airport (On Russian territory that is). I did not see any further mention of it nor any video/foto evidence of it. Anyone? Or just propaganda? Most of the Ukrainian airforce has been destroyed on the ground or keeping a low profile.

What does worry me is this posturing Topol-M on the highway
Lets hope they will not use those.

Posted by: Gehennah | Feb 25 2022 22:06 utc | 87

@Skiffer #51:

I've already seen video of one case where a family in a jeep was shot up by armed civilians, because they suspected that these were Russian saboteurs. They of course filmed the event themselves, congratulating each other for a job well done over their dead bodies. Apparently they heard them speaking in Russian at a gas station.

This explanation can’t be true. 95% of Kiev residents speak Russian in their daily life, except in situations where speaking Ukrainian is mandated by law. Both Poroshenko and Zelenskiy speak Russian when they think they are not recorded. Even some people from West Ukraine whose native language is Ukrainian start speaking Russian after a few years of living in Kiev. Everybody knows this, so “speaking in Russian” can’t be a distinguishing feature of a Russian.

There must be some other explanation for why those people were killed. I think it was because they were traveling in a green SUV that could be mistaken for a military vehicle by a paranoid Volkssturm volunteer: video.

Posted by: S | Feb 25 2022 22:07 utc | 88

In response to Roger@81,

I don't think I've ever heard Zhirinovsky being described either as an anti-semite nor a darling of the West. Are you sure you don't mean Navalny?

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 22:10 utc | 89

I like Emily Dickinson's quote from George Szamuely but in reverse:

"That’s what Great Powers do. They don’t act morally, despite all the hot air emanating from the likes of Blinken and Stoltenberg. Great Powers are not restrained by morality, but by rival Great Powers." Instead of Blinken and Stolty, I'd say Lavrov and Putin.

Let's not demean ourselves and argue that Russia's move here is right and moral. It is not. It is simply a case of a highly capable great power maximizing its own security at the expense of a neighbor, simply because it can and Ukraine suffering what it must. Cheney's 1% doctrine applied by Russia.

If Russia had moved troops into the seceding republics to guarantee their safety and security (as b and me and most of y'all probably thought was the plan), that would have been moral and right and in line with Russia's expressed desire to protect the Russian people and it would furthermore have been a lesson to the other nations hosting Russian minorities, whether NATO or not, to watch their step.

As it is, all they've done is made sure the lesson learned by the undecided is to fear them and move to the US side even more decidedly. Finland is already making noises about finally deciding to join NATO. And the existing small NATOstans will hang on ever more tightly.

Posted by: Caliman | Feb 25 2022 22:11 utc | 90

Posted by: NoWar | Feb 25 2022 20:34 utc | 34:

Having been completely wrong about everything, he now resorts to becoming a performing seal who repeats whatever justification he can find for an unprovoked invasion of a country

If you see this event as an unprovoked invasion of a country, you're pitifully ignorant and/or misinformed. I see that you quote Carson Tucker, I guess that figures.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 25 2022 22:12 utc | 91

Sanctions will work!

Re.: Sanctions.


According to the once reliable Guardian,

the sanctions put in place over the past couple of days by the EU, US, UK, Japan and Canada are unlikely to have any significant effect....

Posted by: farm ecologist | Feb 25 2022 21:24 utc | 61

False question & false answer from Guardian.

1/ EU will suffer more than Russia or US, is this a mistake or the target?
2/ EU will probably cut transportation corridor to/from Russia. No more short rail route for BRI. Transportation to/from China will remain maritime. And controlled by guess who?

Sanctions are just a new iron curtain.

Posted by: La Bastille | Feb 25 2022 22:15 utc | 92


Oilprice reports a tripling of rates on RF loadings


Owners of tankers have become reluctant to offer their vessels to load crude from Russia for fear that their future cargo could be breaching potential sanctions if the West decides to deploy the harshest sanctions against Russia after it invaded Ukraine early on Thursday.

Buyers in Asia, the key crude importing region, were also alarmed that they could soon struggle to procure enough crude. The general perception among Asian oil traders is that the situation is "quite complicated," one trader told Energy Intelligence on Thursday.

SOURCE:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tanker-Rates-On-Russian-Crude-Routes-Triple.html

In its sanctions the US has been careful to avoid sanctions of RF energy exports. The US imports significant amounts of RF crude. Any such US sanction on RF crude exports would have greatest impact on the US domestic market as the US consumes some 40% of the world crude supply and approximately half of that crude goes to transportation uses.

Oil Price reports vessel owners are reluctant to enter RF ports or load RF cargoes. This implies that contract buyers will not receive expected cargoes. If you require oil and are unable to source it from supplier A you turn to supplier B.

The problem with alternative sourcing is that supplier B may already have their output under long term contract to another buyer. There is at present little spare capacity and less surge capacity. Any exporter with surge capacity is unlikely to use it while they can obtain ever higher prices for existing production. The leading surge capacity state has been KSA. The present relationship between the Brandon admin and MBS are unclear. MBS may not wish to support a fickle and hypocritical hegemon. MBS is more likely to prefer the long term contracts in place with China.

Anyone who tells you the future of oil markets is blowing smoke up your orifice.

What is likely to happen is a the eruption of a bidding war. Those countries with a desperate need for energy (to irrigate crop production to feed the populace) will likely pay more than a country where non-essential trips to the local 7-11 are the primary use case. All the present military action, and transport of NATO personnel and weapons stocks, will also stress the markets. The customer with the greatest need and the biggest bank account will have the ability to drive the market price. Those unable to meet this price will experience problems.

So the questions to contemplate are: 1) who gets hurt? and 2) how high the price? I suspect that if you consume 40% of an available supply and that supply increases in price, you keep paying the market price and pass the costs on to your consumers.

The US is already facing a high rate of inflation. The FED can print an infinite number of dollars but the excessive US debt and the declining purchasing power of the dollar will further increase the asking price.

The RF has sufficient reserves of energy and dollars to ride out the storm. I suspect the state to feel the greatest impact will be the US. I suspect Putin has gamed this situation out. I think it unlikely Brandon has done the same.

Posted by: Sushi | Feb 25 2022 22:15 utc | 93

Propaganda no longer applies. This will escalate until you hear peace peace peace word to the wise

Posted by: Truth | Feb 25 2022 22:18 utc | 94

@Posted by: Abe | Feb 25 2022 21:56 utc | 79

Yep, give Lviv and the Silesians to Poland, they can deal with the headache. Hungary will be happy to get the ethnic Hungarian area after the bad way the Ukronationalists have treated them. Maybe Romania takes its little chunk as well. Fixing the mistakes of the past.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 25 2022 22:19 utc | 95

Another useful article on sanctions affects. Russia's potential countersanctions are finally mentioned:

"'The dangers for the West of serious counter sanctions would be devastating', warns Rodney Atkinson, a British academic and political economist. 'Germany without gas and export markets, the US and the West in general without critical minerals and gases used in chip manufacture, titanium used in aircraft manufacture, and supplies of palladium from Russia. The car industry is particularly vulnerable to export restrictions and any further problems for chip manufacture'."

And those are only a select few.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2022 22:23 utc | 96

In response to S@87,

Perhaps you are right. However, over the years Kiev has seen an influx of Western Ukrainians moving to the capital and there has been no shortage on assaults in Kiev against Russian speakers over language. I'm not going to exclude the possibility of mentally unstable West Ukrainians running around Kiev and shooting at anything that even smells remotely Russian, although for all intents and purposes the actual reason of violence by armed civilians against unarmed ones is irrelevant.

In any case, I caught a recording of the events on some stream earlier today, and it had sound with someone speaking Ukrainian saying "Derpa derp Rossiyska mova." That's what I got out of it, that's why I write "apparently" although if there's an alternative explanation, I'm perfectly willing to consider it.

As for distinguishing features, I think any paranoid fantasy at this stage is a valid feature for identifying Russian saboteurs. People are being apprehended, beaten and killed for having their phone out, or because they're suspected of writing secret messages to the Kremlin on concrete walls, wearing the wrong color clothes, or because they just don't trust their safety to armed civilians manning an impromptu road control and decide to turn and flee upon seeing them -- which, at this point, is a perfectly sane and rational reaction to have.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 22:27 utc | 97


I've been reading MofA for years but may not have posted before. Two other sources for information on the progress of the operation that I've found are:

Stolz Untermenschen

Gleb Bazov

Although I can't vouch for the accuracy of these sources.

Also, I don't think this was posted yesterday, but Richard Medhurst had a great interview with Scott Ritter: NATO Too Weak to Face Russia: Scott Ritter on Russian Offensive

Posted by: cmplxgal | Feb 25 2022 22:32 utc | 98

When Ukrainian military surrenders in few weeks those Topols will be stationed in Lvov together with several battalions of air defences (s400, panzirs and the rest) and a squadron of Mig31 with Khinzals. The same armaments will be stationed in west of Belarus and in Kaliningrad. They will serve for Europeans to sign up for the new security arrangement in Europe (country by country bilaterally rather than as EU). In the meantime Americans will have to worry about its own safety elsewhere.

Posted by: Milos | Feb 25 2022 22:33 utc | 99

@Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 25 2022 22:10 utc | 88

"I don't think I've ever heard Zhirinovsky being described either as an anti-semite nor a darling of the West. Are you sure you don't mean Navalny?"

You are absolutely right, my bad, I got the wrong man. Zhirinovsky is not a darling of the West but does have a very strange relationship with his father's Jewishness, "Why should I reject Russian blood, Russian culture, Russian land, and fall in love with the Jewish people only because of that single drop of blood that my father left in my mother's body?" He has railed a little about Zionist conspiracies but I don't consider anti-zionism to equate with anti-semitism.

Navalny has said a lot of horrible things (homophobic, xenophobic, misoginystic, racist ...), and is loved by the West, but he is not anti-semitic.

Its like I created a strange composite, maybe just working on too many things in parallel. Meant Navalny who is a very bad person loved by the West, but not an anti-semite. Kind of makes my point that modern Russia is not anti-semitic in a strange way. Even the jerks are not anti-semitic!

Posted by: Roger | Feb 25 2022 22:37 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.