Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 24, 2022

Disarming Ukraine - Day 1

On February 15 Professor John J. Mearsheimer gave a talk (video) about the Ukraine crisis. He starts out (at 3min) by explaining who has caused it:

The United States, mainly, and its allies are responsible for this crisis.

I recommend to watch it in full.

Like me and many other analysts Mearsheimer did not expect that a Russian move into the Ukraine would happen. Why the Russian government finally decided to take that step is not clear to me. I believe that Zelensky's lose talk about acquiring nuclear weapons for the Ukraine was one of the decisive factors. Who told Zelensky to come up with that?

The Russian operation started with a volley of cruise missiles that destroyed air defense radars and missiles, military airports, ammunition depots and some military harbor. The followed ground attacks by armored forces from Belarus southward, form Russia westward and from Crimea northward. These progressed well though some tanks got destroyed by anti-tank missile fire. The ground moves have air cover and heavy artillery moving up behind them.

This map does not show the progress of the operation but a likely operational plan the Russian military might have.


bigger

The plan seems to be to a. take Kiev, b. encircle the 60,000 strong Ukrainian force that was preparing to attack Donbas c. take the coast. 

A large fleet of helicopter with Russian parachuter took the Antonov / Hostomel airport some 20 miles from Kiev. They did not even bother with CNN filming them. A fleet of transport planes from Russia will soon land there and deliver more forces.

The nuclear reactors at Chernobyl have been secured by Russian troops.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian aircraft have destroyed, 83 ground targets, 2 Ukrainian Su-27s, 2 Su-24s, 1 helicopter, 4 Bayraktar TB-2 drones. One Ukrainian Su-27 has landed in Romania. The pilot was probably not interested in getting killed.

The Ukrainian air-defenses, airforce, navy, most large command and control elements and depots have ceased to exist. The moral of its ground troops will be generally low though some of the Nazi battalions may still be willing to fight.

It is not know yet how far the attack from the north has reached towards Kiev. The attack from Russian mainland is currently fighting around Kharkiv, the Ukraine's second biggest city. The most successful attack was from Crimea as it has progressed significantly. The canal which provides water to Crimea and had since 2014 been blocked by the Ukraine has been liberated. Dnieper water is again flowing to the island.

Russia has so far only committed a relatively small ground force. More troops will follow when the first echelons make more progress. Russia has held back from using ballistic missiles and only used cruise missiles. That is probably a message to the 'west' that Russia could escalate if needed.  There has also been little use so far of Russia's electronic warfare elements. Internet and telephone are working in all of the Ukraine except for Kharkiv which seems to have Internet problems.

The Russian stock market is down but gold, oil and gas are up and Russia has so far lost zero money.

The U.S. is pushing its European 'allies' to commit economic suicide by sanctioning everything Russia. The U.S. should be more careful. Its is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and its aircraft industry depends on titanium from Russia. Russia surely knows who is trying to hurt it the most and it surely knows how, and has the means to, hurt back.

Posted by b on February 24, 2022 at 18:32 UTC | Permalink

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Russia and Belarus have also a massive amount of potassium which the west relies on agriculture. So, the sanctions would trigger food prices to rise.

Posted by: Kane | Feb 24 2022 18:39 utc | 1

@Kane I believe “let them eat cake!” contained the appropriate solution to high food prices.

Posted by: Ritzl | Feb 24 2022 18:46 utc | 2

Thanks for the ongoing focus on Russia's actions in Ukraine.

I see this push back against empire NATO as part of a bigger global "security" reset by the China/Russia axis. While the focus is on personal security the effects on economic security will be where the rubber meets the road, IMO

We are not going to see and half-measures going forward because that only sets up for future loss. This is an all-or-??? gambit which I expect to be successful or we become extinct as a species and the Cosmos breathes a sigh of relief....

I expect Russia to be done with the military portion quickly and then prosecuting the perps they have arrested will be interesting global exercise, eh?

And I continue to believe that Syria will join the global fray soon to further polarize the participants and educate the public about hypocrisy of empire.

The multi-polar genie is not going back in the bottle and is growing in strength and impact on our world.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 24 2022 18:47 utc | 3

Well here it is. The dumb bastards think they can hurt Russia and not get hurt themselves. They musn't have noticed that Russia does reciprocal sanctions.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/new-us-sanctions-on-russia-not-expected-to-severely-target-energy-sector/ar-AAUg5GT?ocid=BingNewsSearch

"The U.S. and its allies are expected to impose major new sanctions on Russia — punishing Vladimir Putin for ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine but stopping short of targeting some critical sectors of his nation’s economy."

"but “starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours.”"

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 18:49 utc | 4

I believe that Zelensky's lose talk about acquiring nuclear weapons for the Ukraine was one of the decisive factors.

Especially if NATO gave him some encouragment on those thoughts. It appears they are setting the stage to strangle the country economically and militarily as well as position themselves in the capital for regime change. Hopefully they will be magnaimous in victory and hand the country back to a group of people who want to prosper the country.

They may well jail Guantanamo style the hardcore oppostion and take them off the table. The talk of active kill detention lists may be true. Government in exile long term crisis comes to mind.

One thing is certain NATO will not relent. If the Balic countries continue an aggressive NATO posture they will be next in line for the Vulcan mind meld.

Posted by: circumspect | Feb 24 2022 18:50 utc | 5

Russia offering ukrain gov surronder terms to sieze mil operations!

Posted by: Rd | Feb 24 2022 18:56 utc | 6

Ukrainian Carnival has come three days early.

Posted by: William Haught | Feb 24 2022 18:58 utc | 7

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslenitsa

Posted by: William Haught | Feb 24 2022 18:59 utc | 8

Something to lighten the moood:
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=513736666783242&set=a.248770443279867

Posted by: pb | Feb 24 2022 19:03 utc | 9

Kane @ 3

Think you meant to say phosphorus. The trouble is not a price increase. No one likes that, only the poorest would starve. And no one cares about them. The problem is being able to produce food at all. Phosphorus is essential. The alternative is bone meal, which is nice and organic but very limited.

On same tack nitrogen fertilizer uses natural gas a primary feedstock. Already farmers here in Midwest are converting from corn to soybeans because fertilizer is priced higher than they can finance. Across the board it is near certain that 2022 harvests will be smaller than 2021.

War with Russia is suicide.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 24 2022 19:05 utc | 10

Why is YouTube plying me with USSR Returns, a fragment of a popular comedy cartoon Simpsons. In the final seconds, Lenin wakes up in his tomb, starts running and roars "death to capitalism". If anyone want to help me with this "algorithmic propaganda", please check it, only 71 second.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 24 2022 19:05 utc | 11

I had expected the Ukrainian armed forces to collapse for various reasons (low morale, dysfunctional military culture, presence of Nazi units in forces, substandard equipment among others) but I had not expected them to fall apart so quickly. That surely says something about how well prepared Ukraine was militarily (or not) and the amount and quality of arms and equipment the West was giving them.

I should think the Russian actions against Ukrainian aggression and military build-up will be quick - but then the difficult decision to occupy areas like Kharkov oblast, or to leave and risk civil war or Western provocateurs moving in and dropping in bioweapons and CWs to stir up and create more problems that can be blamed on Russia, must be made. As much as de-Nazifying Ukraine is necessary, replacing Nazism and in effect creating a new, better nation or nations will be the greater task.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 24 2022 19:08 utc | 12

Anyone know what's going on in Odessa? Heard different things

Posted by: Peltast | Feb 24 2022 19:09 utc | 13

Meanwhile, a traffic cam view of Kyiv and Maidan Square- https://webcam.scs.com.ua/en/europe/ukraine/kiev/maidan/

Posted by: ohmyheck | Feb 24 2022 19:16 utc | 14

Russia has held back from using ballistic missiles and only used cruise missiles.

Iskanders and other theater ballistic missiles can be detected by radar (and we can bet NATO has lot of them airborne and scaning over Ukie airspace), so if element of surprise is crucial, cruise missiles are "stealthy", adleast until they reach deep into enemy territory and hit target.

Posted by: Abe | Feb 24 2022 19:17 utc | 15

Peter AU1 @7--

It amuses me greatly that BigLie Media refer to everything Russian as Putin's to continue the Dictator meme when this event proves it doesn't apply.

I see the map plan b provided is very similar to a map exercise I did before the Olympics began, particularly the Westernmost line of advance.

As for the sanctions, we've discussed the hows and whys Russia won't be hurt by them while the West suffers intense Blowback. Currently, the Czechs are demonstrating why they are the second nation on Russia's Unfriendly Nation List after the Outlaw US Empire. My partial parsing of Putin's address gives us a new name for the West--Empire of Lies. The degree of geoeconomic dependency Russia has over the Empire of Lies will soon become very apparent. Russia is silently daring the Empire of Lies to cut it off from SWIFT as doing so will create massive chaos globally for those remaining in the dollar system.

One other aspect--we're being shown the collective IQ of those assaulting Russia to be about 70, although that might be too generous.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 19:19 utc | 16

Jen 19

I think Russia is well and truly past worrying about what will be blamed on it at this stage.
As for flushing the nazi's out, in the east at least, from Odessa to Kharkov, I don't think there will be anywhere for the nazi's to hide. The will likely be plenty of locals happy to point them out.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 19:20 utc | 17

Posted by: YourMom | Feb 24 2022 18:47 utc | 5

Another idea is that there is just not that much targets for modern EW in Ukraine.

Yesterday night there were eearly reports about Russian EW/recon aircraft in the wings.
Since them Ukrainian Air Force, including drones, ceased to exist.

Ukrainian artillery still shelling cities in Donbass and even in Russia.
Some Ukrainian ground units give fight around cities like Mariupol and Kharkov.

So, perhaps, communication jammers can be used. But hi-tech EW? Are there RQ Reappers in Ukraine, are there Tomahawks?

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 19:24 utc | 18

17) Oldhippie
I meant potassium but phosporous is meaningful as well. In South America, all goverments are worried about that same scenario that you pictured.

Posted by: Kane | Feb 24 2022 19:28 utc | 19

Sorry I was not surprised! Enough is enough!

Posted by: slorter | Feb 24 2022 19:28 utc | 20

Anyone here considered the fact that Putin and Russia's security council/elected government almost certainly took into account the American economy's 1) current problems including inflation, 2) reliance on oil/gas prices and energy futures, 3) inflated importance of "duh markets" and that by formally escalating this ongoing war, he was in effect knowingly "sanctioning" the US economy?

Playing chess while brandon and the rethugs are playin' checkers?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 24 2022 19:33 utc | 21

Kane @ 30

Thank you and thank you for being patient with me. Just learned something. Yes, Russia is world #1 in potash.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 24 2022 19:34 utc | 22

Tom_Q_Collins @32--

Most certainly. Just as I've repeated the geoeconomic dependency of the Empire of Lies on Russia--dependents have no leverage by definition. Same situation exists with China except for hydrocarbons. We must thank the Neoliberal Parasites for bringing about that now unreversible in the short-term circumstance. The Outlaw US Empire's reduced to shooting dollars and T-Bills at Russia and China, for in reality that's all it has. The industrial base within the Outlaw US Empire is far less than at the onset of WW2.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 19:41 utc | 23

Posted by: YourMom | Feb 24 2022 18:38 utc | 2

The Outlaw Russian Federation joins the Outlaw Empire in the ranks of war criminals. Bravo. The bar fleas (who said that? brilliant) are falling over themselves to squeal in joy. The old psycho geezer cheers for ww3. 'B', throws around Nazi, how interesting for this anonymous German.

And note. The Zionist entity has not condemned Putin's war crime. Is the "Z" on the armor for Zion?

Posted by: bootlickers | Feb 24 2022 19:44 utc | 24

If an occupation of the capital is in the works, I wonder how long they plan for that to last, and how long it will actually last. To me this seems like the biggest gamble. Demilitarizing a nation and de-nazification are tall orders that won't pan out overnight, or even six months.

But what do I know, I didn't think it would come to this either...

Posted by: Norogene | Feb 24 2022 19:45 utc | 25

b, glad to see you are using the Michael Kofman drawn map on the potential military moves of Russian forces and that you are also using Kofman tweets as a foundation for your descriptions as to what is happening militarily now on the ground in Ukraine.

His military guesses on what would happen in Ukraine have been eerily accurate because of his laser focus on the nature of Russian deployments of forces as the key to understanding Russian intent.

Part of the reason you were mislead on Russian intent was because your framework overestimated international legal reasoning and underestimated classic power politics.

Posted by: Gulag | Feb 24 2022 19:48 utc | 26

Posted by: bootlicker | Feb 24 2022 19:44 utc | 35

Username checks out. How does Uncle Scam's boot taste? Looks like the Russians didn't want to find out.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 24 2022 19:49 utc | 27

the level of military effectiveness does not change that the bear is acting in accordance with the wishes of those that poked it

they want the bear caught up in a clusterfuck so they can focus on the dragon

with any luck the red army can avoid the very many traps that lay before it... there are global consequences riding on how far they go and how quick they leave

Posted by: Rae | Feb 24 2022 19:50 utc | 28

Also to the bootlicker who has no idea what she's talking about:

"The Russian attack on Ukraine is a violation of the world order and Israel condemns it. Israel is ready to give humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Israel knew many wars. War is not the way to solve conflicts," Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement Thursday.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 24 2022 19:51 utc | 29

the press is reporting that biden’s freezing “trillions” of dollars in russian assets. could that number be right?? it boggles the mind if so, and could be taken by russia as a declaration of war.

Posted by: line islands | Feb 24 2022 19:51 utc | 30

I, too, want to see a swift resolution and retreat of the Russian forces after dismantling the main Nazi-adjacent elements of the Ukraine's USUK provided military and revival of the Minsk agreements to the extent that the Ukies cease shelling Donbass and actually start treating the area as sovereign or at least autonomous, which was all they had to do in the first place.

By no means am I cheerleading this incursion, but I'm also not like some of the idiots fooling themselves into thinking that this wasn't an inevitable consequence of USUKNATO skullduggery and broken promises.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 24 2022 19:54 utc | 31

From Putin's speech this morning:

“ I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard. “

The crazies in the west better listen this time. This is an extremely serious warning.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 24 2022 19:55 utc | 32

@YourMom, #5,

Russia's non-use of EW capabilities was perhaps a footnote of Ukrainian weaponry antiquity. For all the advertising of providing Ukraine with weapons and military assistances, the west/NATO has in fact provided junk. There simply wasn't the need for Russia to flash their EW.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 24 2022 19:57 utc | 33

line islands @42--

You fail to realize that the Outlaw US Empire declared war on Russia after the USSR fell and came very close to victory in the late 1990s. I just posted this portion of Putin's address on the previous thread, but you clearly haven't read it:

"As for our country, after the disintegration of the USSR, given the entire unprecedented openness of the new, modern Russia, its readiness to work honestly with the United States and other Western partners, and its practically unilateral disarmament, they immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us. This is how it was in the 1990s and the early 2000s, when the so-called collective West was actively supporting separatism and gangs of mercenaries in southern Russia. What victims, what losses we had to sustain and what trials we had to go through at that time before we broke the back of international terrorism in the Caucasus! We remember this and will never forget." [My Emphasis]


Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 19:58 utc | 34

@ Norwegian | Feb 24 2022 19:55 utc | 44 who wrote
"
The crazies in the west better listen this time. This is an extremely serious warning.
"

I think the crazies in the West are doubling down. Mr. Market is now being propped back up and precious metals are being hammered back down...

I am of the opinion that this would be a good time for Syria, Iran, Yemen and China to push back simultaneously and in a coordinated fashion.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 24 2022 20:02 utc | 35

Went to bed last night, not suspecting anything. Fired up my computer this morning - mayhem. Didn't see any of this coming (not at this time, to be sure).

Yeah, what's it all about? Very ugly for Ukraine the state, even if there don't seem to be an awful lot of casualties. On the Russian side, seems heavy-handed to me, what with the ground operations.

The Brits are moving Eurofighters and aerial refuelling jets to Poland. And there's USAF refuelling jets circling over both Romania and Poland already. Contingency?

Via SouthFront, at the headquarters of the PSYOPS department of the Ukrainian Forces in Kiev, the heat has been cranked up a little. Wonder if there were still any of the British overseers around.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 24 2022 20:03 utc | 36

"The U.S. should be more careful. Its is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and its aircraft industry depends on titanium from Russia." ???

https://www.statista.com/statistics/759972/mine-production-titanium-minerals-worldwide-by-country/

Posted by: SysATI | Feb 24 2022 20:04 utc | 37

@YourMom, #12,

How they got there is not known.

There you go! The Chechen Special Battalion must have been 'beamed' there. So, Russia did use their EW after all.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 24 2022 20:05 utc | 38

psychohistorian @48--

Propping the markets only serves to further weaken the Empire's financial strength, fuel inflation and thus further promote domestic unrest. IMO, those in control are braindead.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 20:06 utc | 39

Why? Surely because he knows more about what the State Department, Soros and the rest of the gang are planning. So it's now or never. Nukes in Ukraine? Something more? Who knows? It's not really about Ukraine, anyway. It's about regime change in Russia to settle old scores while on a path to global dominance; and even if they lose this particular battle that they are fighting with others' lives (as always), they won't stop because they never stop, and the sanctions strangulation strategy will be in place.

Posted by: HBM | Feb 24 2022 20:06 utc | 40

Before Russia welcomed back Crimea, Putin said they ran their own polls.

When they did the same in Donbass, it came back at around 50% support. Not enough to support Russian intervention. It took 8 years for most of the rest to come around.

Russian forces will stop where their popular support ends.

De- militarization can be accomplished at arms length.

De-nazification, with popular support, will be fairly quick.
Without popular support, de-nazification will be aimed at leaders, in the night, with folks no one sees. It's the only possible way.

Perhaps they could help in Canada?

Posted by: Les7 | Feb 24 2022 20:12 utc | 41

#2

NoFlyZone in effect!

Depends on the period of the day: early morning until noon today a spy plane coming from Syracusa (Italy) went directly over Ukraine making many north-south loops at the west of the Donbass borders, and then over the Black Sea many nw-se loops at the sw of the Krimean coast. Soon after noon or 13h00 it was heading back in the sw direction over Greece. flightradar website. Spy plane is my guess, but not a difficult one.

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 24 2022 20:14 utc | 42

This Russian Shock and Awe is meant as a message. Beware.

The breadth of the operation, executed with precision (so far - this is when to be wary of false flags) planned with meticulous forethought, and deadly serious in its objectives, is going to make the puppet-masters think twice about risking their own necks with the advanced tech of Russian weaponry. Immersed in profiteering the US built $1,000 toilet seats, and boondoggle weapons' systems that can't shoot straight, while the Russians, understanding the enemy, pursued a serious purpose of survival and exponentially advanced its warfare capabilities past a lumbering empire living on past glory, borrowed money and senile thinking.

The problem really is when one listens to Putin/Lavrov versus Biden/Blinken, the disparity of intelligence is so apparent, versus the equal and opposite arrogance, that one has to fear the Americans are so stupid, and such blunderers yet hold such power, that a tragedy much greater than the one already unfolded is only a huff and a puff away.

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 24 2022 20:17 utc | 43

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/22195
R.I.P....

reportedly Ukrainians took off a bridge over Oskol river. While some family car was crossing it.

at least it was a single car, unlike Belgrade bridge destroyed by their NATO teachers

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 20:19 utc | 44

@48 They always manage to hammer gold back down somehow. The market seems to like Biden's sanction package (minus SWIFT I notice).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-slide-may-deepen-ukraine-223002974.html

Posted by: dh | Feb 24 2022 20:20 utc | 45

Norwegian @44--

The big question: Will European leaders awaken from the drunken stupor induced by believing their own propaganda before they inflict great harm to themselves and their nations? The Brits might think they're far enough removed to send their jets stationed in Poland into the fray, but that would be a very big mistake.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 20:20 utc | 46

This SouthFront article has a ton of reports, videos, and pictures (including many referenced separately in other comments linking to Telegram). https://southfront.org/ukraine-results-of-first-day-of-russias-military-operation-videos/

Posted by: worldblee | Feb 24 2022 20:20 utc | 47

@SysATI 50

Correct, however, this is not about the raw material. But about major big size components for civil liners, Boeing has a joint venture in Russia to produce them. Russia has unrivalled metallurgical skills in working with Titanium.

Posted by: BG13 | Feb 24 2022 20:21 utc | 48

Taiwan starts suspecting something fishy about "ironclad unwavernig support"

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253176.shtml

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 20:28 utc | 49

The encirclement or 'kettling' of the 50,000+ Ukrainian soldiers at the Line of Contact would bring about an immediate cease of hostilities -- with an unlimited supply of Russian soldiers to the east of the LOC, completely pinning them, it remains for forces to the north (Kharkiv is apparently taken) to press southward and create a front with the western edges of the LOC while troops from the southeast press to join the northern forces.

However, it appears from the strategic map that the troop numbers of the southeast army are not as numerous as the other forces, so their battle northwestward would be difficult.

Posted by: chet380 | Feb 24 2022 20:32 utc | 50

Maybe this explains why the Russians did it?

Posted by: schkid | Feb 24 2022 20:32 utc | 51

"Why the Russian government finally decided to take that step is not clear to me." It's quite simple:
to stop the insane/evil ukraine regime from acquiring nukes;
to stop the eastward extension of the Nazi American Terrorist Organisation;
to demilitarise ukraine;
to protect/liberate the long-suffering Donbass people - on BOTH sides of the contact line;
to secure the nuclear power stations;
to destroy the 14(?] yank biolabs there;
to restore the water supply to Crimea - a war crime committed by the kiev regime in stopping it; etc etc. HTH.

Posted by: Ralph | Feb 24 2022 20:35 utc | 52

Oriental Voice #45

#t is likely that ew systems are in use for drone defences at front lines. These are likely localised and invisible from our remote perspective. If the decommunisation freedom forces move West there might be some evidence but I assume we wont see much. If there was a naval confrontation something could be revealed but there aint no enemy navy any more :)

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 24 2022 20:37 utc | 53

To understand what happened to ukraine, you have to know about the original neocon wolfowitz (jew) doctrine, as revealed by the nyt in 1992, & PNAC, which stated the usa wanted to remain the #1 superpower, without any other aspiring country (think Russia & China) challenging it or even from having influence in their own backyard. yank arrogance & pride leading to its inevitable fall.

Posted by: Ralph | Feb 24 2022 20:39 utc | 54

The US stock market is now down ... nothing.
Cryptos are recovering strongly...

Don't know what to say about this
or what it means.

Another week
another 404 down the drain.

Posted by: librul | Feb 24 2022 20:40 utc | 55

China and Russia surely discussed coordinated responses to sanctions. Boeing may have trouble for a few years being cut off of Russian titanium, developing the technology and attesting it for passenger airplanes cannot be done fast.

In the same time, combined efforts of China (already hit) and Russia in microchip technology should yield results if few years as well. In the meantime, I am guessing that they should have no problem with chips essential for automobiles and other controller chips where computing power and size are less important than reliability. Providers of web technology there will have to concentrate on efficiency of program, it is unbelievable how new computers can be slowed down by add pushing etc.

In a larger economic arena, this is a period with shortages and bottleneck of materials, natural gas etc., countries with surpluses, like Russia and USA can do OK, Europe has to thread carefully, following USA only can be too expensive to preserve political cohesion which is already shaky.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 24 2022 20:40 utc | 56

People better remember how US reacted when Cuba receive military aid from Soviet Union in 1962. Cuba was convinced that US wanted to invade it. AND IT WAS RIGHT.

US reaction to this defense move. Near Nuclear War.

So Russia making a move on Ukraine after US parks itself in Baltic states, Poland Czech etc. is to be a none aggressive move ???? Only in a CNN's viewer's dream is it a none aggressive move.

Go Vladimir

Posted by: Tom_12 | Feb 24 2022 20:41 utc | 57

Posted by: schkid | Feb 24 2022 20:32 utc | 65

Exlnatation "why" should include "why now" part

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 20:41 utc | 58

@karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 20:20 utc | 59

The big question: Will European leaders awaken from the drunken stupor induced by believing their own propaganda before they inflict great harm to themselves and their nations?
The answer is unfortunately clearly no. They have been inflicting severe harm to their nations (enriching themselves and/or being blackmailed) for decades already, and they do believe their own propaganda. The propaganda is not just about traditional geopolitics, but also hobgoblins like "climate change" and "covid". Coincidentally, these things always serve to enslave people, and these "leaders" have become so power-drunk from the successes of these efforts they they will never back down, even when reality hits them.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 24 2022 20:42 utc | 59

@Arioch 29
Are there RQ Reappers in Ukraine, are there Tomahawks?

There is a US drone, identified as FORTE12 flying about 170 km southwest of Sevastopol. It repeatedly circles back. It transmits transpondersignals. Allegedly a Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk, a high-altitude, remotely-piloted, surveillance aircraft.

Posted by: Northman | Feb 24 2022 20:43 utc | 60

FJB managed to reverse the positive energy situation for the US,
Created by Trump,
Weakening any leverage the US may have had in regards to purchasing Russian oil,
And now, the US will continue to buy Russian oil, at a higher price,
While enacting sanctions.

Trump got a few policies right.

Posted by: Cadence calls | Feb 24 2022 20:45 utc | 61

Re: EW usage or not:

I'm in Europe (Switzerland) and I noticed significant noise (EMI) on the train intercom on my daily commute (both this morning and this evening). I just checked my radio and the LW band has a lot of noise, but the MW band (Shortwave) is completely blotted out. According to spaceweather.com, this is not a solar related interference, so, if it (s)quacks like a duck?

Posted by: Reto | Feb 24 2022 20:45 utc | 62

@64 The kettling could be a replay of what happened in Debaltseve in 2015. Or even Bagration redux.

Posted by: dh | Feb 24 2022 20:50 utc | 63

Posted by: Reto | Feb 24 2022 20:45 utc | 77

jammers are probably there, maybe even both NATO's and Russia's jammers, but i'd not count them as hi-tech uptra-modern EW

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 20:50 utc | 64

Jen || 19

As I expected the Ukie military fought as valiantly as the Afghani puppet military -- it evaporated at the first sign of trouble. Smart. And this time, Brandon was also wise enough to evacuate the US Embassy beforehand.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Feb 24 2022 20:51 utc | 65

@psychohistorian | Feb 24 2022 20:02 utc | 48

I think the crazies in the West are doubling down. Mr. Market is now being propped back up

The pattern is very similar to what often happened in 2008 and onward. If the market(TM) gets down significantly, it usually starts to melt UP magically after Euro markets close and/or around 2pm-2:30pm (eastern) until its close time.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Feb 24 2022 20:52 utc | 66

karlof1 | Feb 24 2022 19:19 utc | 26

A financial crisis now is just what the Schwabs ordered. (Scabs?)

I am beginning to think this will end nastily. In a financial crash - which could then be blamed on Putin. It could possibly seem like one way out of the debt-death cycle for the Western Ubergruppo (.00001%). Those massive debts cannot be paid back and the US, and also the EU and the UK are neck deep in it. So the US (NATO) are doubling down, by sending troops to Germany and other countries that might try to make space for their own interests to be heard. It is a blatant colonial style "whop the locals" to get them back into servitude.

That the US WANTS the separation of the EU with the Eurasian Landmass Economic Area, is well known. They may have decided that this is the time to try to break up the possible threats (EU and BRI) to their financial supremacy, before the bottom falls out.
**

They don't want SWIFT to be shut off because it gives them real-time information on world-wide monetary movement. The US needs Swift for spying. The three most corrupt Tax and money laundering sites all have instigated massive financial "sanctions", London, US and Switzerland, to try to steal Russian assets and Oligarchs capital. (Bonds etc)

****

Added to that are the civil disorders, due to the still to come revelations of the lethality in the health systems, Covid statistical manipulation by Governments, and the imposition of QR for absolute identity and bank control.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 24 2022 20:52 utc | 67

A picture is worth a thousand words: Ukraine political regions in 2007

https://elordenmundial.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2007-ukraine-legislative-rayons.gif

Updated to 2022

http://www.pictureshack.ru/images/58168_KAK_AyKHETCA_DNR.gif

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Feb 24 2022 20:56 utc | 68

Just a reminder … one day before the Maidan massacre.

Ukraine: Extremists Reject EU Deal, Demand Violent Overthrow | Feb 21st, 2014 |

The extremist leaders took the stage and in a fascist style rhetoric rejected this EU brokered deal. This leader made a clear threat and demanded the resignation of president Yanukovich by 10am tomorrow morning. If he doesn't step down, the mob will march on the presidential palace and force him out. We will be armed and no one can stop us. Entered another coffin pushed forward through the crowd and all were silenced in prayer. All calls for no more bloodshed fell on deaf ears.

The extremists wanted it all, NATO membership, lethal weapons and restoration of nuclear weapons ...

Posted by: Oui | Feb 24 2022 20:59 utc | 69

Re EW. I would think GPS would be non existent over the entire Ukraine as a precaution.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 21:04 utc | 70

The worlds economies stagger
Energy and food prices skyrocket
Lies and fascist gangsterism continue
While Russia protects itself from NATO aggression

What the fuck is wrong with these people?
If the idea is to ruin the existing structures of the global political economy,
It’s working.
(And I know many here are rooting for just that,
I’d just like to raise my kids and die before we go full retard)

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Feb 24 2022 21:04 utc | 71

I'm sure barflies here are from different corners of the world and have different takes on what has happened in the past 24 hours. Let me introduce parts of an editorial from the Orietaldaily newspaper of Hong Kong, on the moving forward perspective of what is to follow:

We believe Russia's next steps are to complete the following 3 errands:
1) To solidify Russia's control along the Black Sea coastline.
2) To search out secret military setups within all of Ukraine, especially traces associated with nuke weapon revival to nip off buds and roots.
3) To zero in on what Putin referred to as Nationalist Nazis and completely rid Ukraine of any anti-Russo elements in government, military, and social organizations.

These viewpoints are pretty much in agreement with most barflies here at MOA. This editorial considers Zelensky's speech in Munich regarding nuclear weapon revival a triggering point of this military campaign.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 24 2022 21:04 utc | 72

From the many videos and images on the net, an unavoidable pattern is emerging: Ukraine will be cut off from the Black Sea. We have seen videos from Kherson and Nikolajev so I am guessing the connection to Odessa will be complete soon. Less clear about the coast on the Azov sea towards Mariupol, but Russell Bentley claimed Mariupol was taken.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 24 2022 21:06 utc | 73

Posted by: Oui | Feb 24 2022 20:59 utc | 85

you have to remember, Right Sector photokorr Olena Bilozerska publicly declared it one day before RS's meeting with Angela Merkel, i think on 16th feb 2014

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:08 utc | 74

Big demonstrations in Russia right now against the war, also rumours of a big cyberattack against Russia from the west, also RT is down.

Posted by: Zanon | Feb 24 2022 21:09 utc | 75

Oriental Voice 88
Thanks. A few earlier though Russia had to justify itself to the world, but to them the world is the US and its vassals which only make up a small part of the world. Asia is a far larger place. And where the world center is shifting to.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 24 2022 21:11 utc | 76

Sean Penn is in 404 filming a documentary to show the world what is happening and to "...stop this heinous invasion by Russia.”

The formerly funny Vice mag, now a sickening woke rag for Gen Z is producing it.

Sean Penn

El Chapo Guzman should have had some of his güeyes taken care of "Citizen Penn" after the interview he gave to Penn lead to his arrest.

Penn also has worked with Community Organized Relief Effort. Sponsors include Clinton Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, and USAID.


Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 24 2022 21:14 utc | 77

@59 Karlof1

British craziness is just getting into gear.

There is talk in the house of Putin being tried as a war criminal. "Lefty" Keir Starmer is pushing for Russian swift exclusion whilst others in his party have removed their signatures from a stop the war letter. Labour backs NATO...

Meanwhile, in the life support building, lords and ladies are hearing how Russians do not deserve VVP.

We really are a scummy bunch

Posted by: Some Random Passerby | Feb 24 2022 21:14 utc | 78

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/595729-biden-says-sanctions-will-take-time-to-impact-russian-economy

Biden says sanction effects will take time to hurt Russia. As with the 2014 sanctions, I wonder if they will make Russia stronger by defunding the oligarchs along with the Russian stock market going down.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 24 2022 21:15 utc | 79

Posted by: YourMom | Feb 24 2022 21:12 utc | 93

This sad devastead ukrainian voice full of deep pain about future of her government and state...

Just kidding

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:18 utc | 80

Ukrainians claim they've liberated Hostomel airport.
https://twitter.com/UATV_en/status/1496920633107976197

Posted by: Tod | Feb 24 2022 21:18 utc | 81

MoD of Ukraine is tired debunking it.

They are pldedging heavy fight around it, but it is not recovered, not yet at least

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:19 utc | 82

Where is Elensky?

Already away with cash like the former Afghan us puppet "president"?

Posted by: Olivier | Feb 24 2022 21:20 utc | 83

She clearly is entertained and cheerful, she never saw such a show (nor did most of us) and she is thrilled.

Maybe something would happen to her mood l;ater, but in that movier she is radiating curiosity.

kinda "wow! my instagram gonna be hit today!"

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:28 utc | 84

It's amazing how guillible most of you apparently are. b musing about what could have been the trigger that set this off, was it Zelensky talking about nukes or what. Come off it. This was clearly months in the planning; any 'trigger' was merely what pretexts would be used to justify something that was going to happen anyway. Nothing about this was spur of the moment. The western media narrative, including maps showing the suspected invasion plan, were fundamentally correct. They were wrong on the exact timings, but it happened in the end. Russia just pulled off a masterclass in military and political deception, but it's totally honest and it's the other side that are the 'Empire of Lies', right.

Are any of you going to even attempt to engage in self-reflection? Or are your personalities so tied up in accepting the Kremlin narrative that you can't bring yourself to look in the mirror? You're useful idiots. Grow up.

Posted by: Ben | Feb 24 2022 21:29 utc | 85

@68 Your mom

...Brits are a joke militarily. Beating up or torturing unarmed Paddies, Iraqis and badly armed/led Argentinians is all they're good for...

Not entirely accurate, but close enough.

1) Gurkhas (and a few others) would not "shit themselves". The rest would, and rightfully so. Hezbollah doesn't play games.

2) During Falklands war, a UK marine got the jump on an Argentine soldier, shooting him twice with his 5.56 M16. Argentine managed to loose one off with his 7.62 FAL as he went down. Both died. Who was badly equipped?

Posted by: Some Random Passerby | Feb 24 2022 21:31 utc | 86

Yourmom

How could you have missed the demonstrations in Russia, why do you believe the russians support the war?
RT works now yes but have not for the past hours.

Posted by: Zanon | Feb 24 2022 21:33 utc | 87

Posted by: YourMom | Feb 24 2022 21:28 utc | 104

404, there is no such page

if there is for you, then perhaps it is somehow limited

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:36 utc | 88


I wonder if NATO would try any false flag on the Polish, or Estonian, Latvian borders. This would force russian response with the possibility of WW3. Just thinking.

Posted by: bystander 04 | Feb 24 2022 21:36 utc | 89

Why the Russian government finally decided to take that step is not clear to me.
Russia had no choice. Ukraine with NATO in it appeared certain, placing an enemy effectively inside Russia which would then have no defense against short-range missile attacks. . .Yugoslavia redux.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 24 2022 21:37 utc | 90

Ben

They are stuck in their brainwashing, as I said earlier, Putin have done alot of great stuff during his presidency but this is not something anyone could or should defend.
Unfortuantely people here are brainwashed, it is just circle jerk from now on, its like if Putin do something, they are there to defend it regardlgess how stupid Putin now act.

Posted by: Zanon | Feb 24 2022 21:37 utc | 91

What the Russian leadership wanted was No Ukrainian NATO membership and what the Russian leadership got was No Ukrainian NATO membership. It's impossible for a country to join NATO if it is at war or if it has contested area's. If not, the existing members would inherit that war. Ukrainian gov could have forsaken Donbass and Luhansk (and Crimea) but giving up the south and east entirely to join NATO is impossible to sell to the hard liners. And even if they would, the remainder of Ukraine would probably be crushed and crumbled before NATO members would be able to get together to vote for the membership. The big question now is, are the retarded unelected EU commissars (as well as the totally useless suckpuppets in the EU parliament) retarded enough to flush the EU economy which is already facing sky high inflation with no economic growth completely down the toilet to the benefit of the US and China.

Posted by: xor | Feb 24 2022 21:38 utc | 92

Within the last few months, both Belarus and Kazahkstan were targeted by color-revolution-style regime change events. Action to return Ukraine to domestic control is probably in part done as an object lesson that such games will no longer provide any reward.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 24 2022 21:42 utc | 93

Posted by: Ben | Feb 24 2022 21:29 utc | 105

Russia had 8 years for making this plan, and Russian army did her homework, unlike Ukrainian

As for the trigger, it was clear that NATO and Ukraine can ignite the war, if they attack hard enough. It was not clear would they dare or not to push THAT hard. More correct: there was no dooubt NATO would gladly spend as many ukrainians as needed, but there were hopes Ukrainians would avoid becoming sacrifices. It worked for a while, so the plans were not set in motion.

Eventually Ukrainians crossed the line, they even attacked into Russia's borderlines. Just the contingency those plans were made for.

Whether Zelensky sanctioned it or was kept out of the loop does not matter.

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:43 utc | 94

I, too, am puzzled by the extent of the incursion and expected Russia to use artillery and cruise missiles from their own territory against the Uke forces at the LOC and let LNDR forces mop up. But perhaps they judged that too risky, too many casualties.

Also, they need to get rid of the Nazis and justice for Odessa massacre.

I wonder now if they might offer areas east of the Dneiper and on the Black Sea coast the option of a UN administered referendum on joining LNDR or annexation?

Posted by: MikeO | Feb 24 2022 21:47 utc | 95

Posted by: Ben | Feb 24 2022 21:29 utc | 105

The direction of attack are a give away ?

So what other options were there ? From Poland or Moldova ??? There sure as hell are not too many.

Of course this was planned months ahead if not years. Were the Russians to do it on the fly ???

Puppet or not, what was done is logically correct. Once NATO bases were on Ukraine soil would have made things much more dangerous UNLESS it is all Kabuki Theater. But I doubt you or the rest here have enough accurate information to decide if that is how things are.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Feb 24 2022 21:48 utc | 96

Posted by: YourMom | Feb 24 2022 21:45 utc | 118

wa noir twitter page is not RT page! so i did not get what you meant

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 24 2022 21:48 utc | 97

Eighthman | 97

I wonder if they will make Russia stronger by defunding the oligarchs along with the Russian stock market going down.

But how will the oligarchs loot money from Russia and evade taxes if they do not have offshore havens and sanctuaries like Londongrad?

Posted by: Keith McClary | Feb 24 2022 21:50 utc | 98

A broken clock is right eventually, especially when it creates self fulfilling prophecies. We overestimated the depth of Russian patience and underestimated just how decisive action would be to nick the Ukrainian buildup in the bud. Blood and soil ultranationalism is incompatible with peace, and the situation demanded action. It came today and not years from now.

Ukraine could simply have chosen not to shell the Donbas, not to amass 60,000 troops in the region, and to implement its commitments. Instead it willingly acted as Washington’s catspaw with seemingly no sense of realism. It allowed a sense of impunity to overtake a sober appraisal of its limits and self interest.

Had Zelensky carried out the mandate he was elected with in 2019, this situation would not be happening. Instead, his own weakness in the face of Ukrainian hawkism and western pressure has led to the further dismemberment of his country.

Posted by: Cesare | Feb 24 2022 21:51 utc | 99

@Zanon | Feb 24 2022 21:33 utc | 107
You are a liar or a moron. I followed RT footage over the whole day and it was up uninterruptedly. Or you post from 404 and some of your "cyber guerillas" shot themselves in the foot.

RT even gave video footage of the "mass demonstrations" in Moscow. Did not look more than 100 or 200 peeps, on the sidewalk, normal pedestrians passing with not much interest, some western reporters with cameras. RT also documented protests of intellectuals, artists, journalists etc. , at least those people are not cancelled or vilified like oppositional voices in the West.

Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 24 2022 21:52 utc | 100

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