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Disarming Ukraine – Day 5 | Money War On Russia – Day 1
Historian Anne Morelli has summarized Arthur Ponsonby's classic book Falsehood in War-Time as this:
- We do not want war.
- The opposite party alone is guilty of war.
- The enemy is inherently evil and resembles the devil.
- We defend a noble cause, not our own interests.
- The enemy commits atrocities on purpose; our mishaps are involuntary.
- The enemy uses forbidden weapons.
- We suffer small losses, those of the enemy are enormous.
- Recognized artists and intellectuals back our cause.
- Our cause is sacred.
- All who doubt our propaganda are traitors.
h/t Bernd Neuner
As an example I offer you yesterday's Policy statement by Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany
The above are what you hear and see in current 'western' news. It is not reality.
Cont. reading: Disarming Ukraine – Day 5 | Money War On Russia – Day 1
Disarming Ukraine – Day 4
In war, truth is the first casualty.
Gilbert Doctorow:
The Russian Way of War
Yesterday anyone watching Euronews on one screen and Russian state television on another would have been perplexed by the totally contradictory coverage of both with respect to the fate of the armed detachment of Ukrainian border guards on one island in the southeast of Ukraine. Euronews carried the address of President Zelensky awarding posthumous designation as Heroes of Ukraine to the entire detachment, which reportedly resisted the attacking Russian forces and were slaughtered. Meanwhile Russian news showed those same border guards seated at tables and signing sworn statements that they voluntarily lay down their arms and awaited repatriation to their homes and families.
Earlier today I took this screenshot from the New York Times website.
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Reading the collection of items under the above New York Times headline I fail to find any news of a bombardment of Kiev or of Russian military involvement in street fighting within the city.
The only item in there that is relevant with regards to Kiev is a Russian missile strike on the fuel depot of a military airport on the southern periphery of the city. The large fire and smoke could be seen from Kiev.
As Russia does not announce the progress of its campaign the 'western' news is projecting that it is losing the war. I see no evidence that this is the case and believe that it is far from reality. The lack of reliable reporting just makes it impossible to map out the current frontline.
Here are three more pieces I can also recommend. They relate to serious strategic aspects of the war and lack the otherwise overwhelming propaganda slant.
M.K. Bhadrakumar:
India shouldn’t miss world war pointer
Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but is locked in an existential struggle to avoid the fate of Yugoslavia. Period.
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The US is setting a ‘bear trap’ for Russia using the neo-Nazi forces. It calculates that if the Russian forces get bogged down, the door opens for a NATO intervention — 175000 NATO troops are positioned already on Russia’s borders with massive firepower and air and naval formations surrounding Russia from all sides.
A NATO intervention will be tantamount to US-Russia war — that is, a world war with nuclear weapons. On Thursday, Putin explicitly warned Biden to back off. But Biden has since indicated that the NATO will continue to pump weapons into Ukraine.
Patrick Armstrong:
RUSSIA UKRAINE 1
I’m surprised both of the size of the operation and the type of operation. While I did expect standoff destruction of the nazi units and considered the possibility of standoff destruction of Ukrainian military assets I did not expect to see troops on the ground other than a few Spetsnaz. The operation is much, much more than I expected. Putin & Co surprised me too.
Had I been at home I would have read Putin’s speech earlier and understood sooner. What he is talking about is what the Soviet Union tried to do from 1933 onwards: namely to stop Hitler before he got started. This time Russia is able to do it by itself. In other words, Putin feels that he is making a pre-emptive attack to stop June 1941. This is very serious indeed and indicates that the Russians are going to keep going until they feel that they can safely stop.
Scott Ritter:
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in Perspective
Russian President Vladimir Putin had been subjected to a series of sophomoric psychological profiles that trivialized Russian national concerns as little more than the psychotic whim of a troubled individual. The caricatures that emerged of the Russian state and its leadership colored the analysis of Russia’s oft-stated concerns over what it viewed as its legitimate national security.
This blinded the West to the reality of what was transpiring. Because no one took Russia seriously, no one could imagine a large-scale ground war in Europe. So everyone was taken by surprise when such a conflict broke out.
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2022-018 (NOT Ukraine)
Disarming Ukraine – Day 3
Yesterday the Russian military halted its advance to give time to the Ukrainian president Zelensky to agree to ceasefire talks. The U.S. however told him not to hold such talks and said he should leave Kiev. Up to this morning Russia had received no response to its ceasefire offer and resumed the attack. Zelensky decided to stay in Kiev.
There was little operational news from the ground that could be verified. Despite that lots of claims were made about the progress or non-progress of the Russian campaign. I believe that these claims are nearly all propaganda and will refrain from reproducing them.
Approximate situation today
"Blue dots=Ukraine forces presence/siege of military HQ or control of all main roads around."
Source – bigger
The units from Crimea are moving towards north and east. The eastern group, together with a move from Donbas west, is supposed to surround the Ukrainian units in and around Mariupol. Some Ukrainian units near to Donbas seem to fear getting encircled and are moving out.
Cont. reading: Disarming Ukraine – Day 3
Disarming Ukraine – Day 2
The Russian operations in the Ukraine continue at a moderate pace. Some more troops were committed today. In all the Russian military may have now introduced some 20-40% of its prepared forces.
The Ukrainian military is not so much holding a line but concentrating in and around its bigger cities. It has destroyed some bridges north of Kiev to make an approach more difficult. That will slow down the Russian moves but will not prevent them. Russia's military is famously good at setting up combat bridges.
So far the Russians have used their artillery sparsely. An exception was last night near Kharkiv in the northeast of Ukraine where a strike by multiple launcher artillery systems (MLRS) hit some area target with yet unknown results.
A 13 minutes long video from a highway drive near Kherson, a city north of Crimea, shows nearly 100 destroyed Ukrainian trucks and tanks. These are likely victims of air attacks.
If this map from a Turkish think tank source is correct the Russian troops did not attempt much deeper strikes today but mostly consolidated their frontline.
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This map from Janes shows less progress. But it also has not marked the Donbas area in the southeast which is held by pro-Russian forces.
Cont. reading: Disarming Ukraine – Day 2
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-17
ONLY for news & views RELATED TO UKRAINE …
Open Thread 2022-16
For news & views NOT RELATED TO UKRAINE …
Disarming Ukraine – Day 1
On February 15 Professor John J. Mearsheimer gave a talk (video) about the Ukraine crisis. He starts out (at 3min) by explaining who has caused it:
The United States, mainly, and its allies are responsible for this crisis.
I recommend to watch it in full.
Like me and many other analysts Mearsheimer did not expect that a Russian move into the Ukraine would happen. Why the Russian government finally decided to take that step is not clear to me. I believe that Zelensky's lose talk about acquiring nuclear weapons for the Ukraine was one of the decisive factors. Who told Zelensky to come up with that?
The Russian operation started with a volley of cruise missiles that destroyed air defense radars and missiles, military airports, ammunition depots and some military harbor. The followed ground attacks by armored forces from Belarus southward, form Russia westward and from Crimea northward. These progressed well though some tanks got destroyed by anti-tank missile fire. The ground moves have air cover and heavy artillery moving up behind them.
This map does not show the progress of the operation but a likely operational plan the Russian military might have.
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The plan seems to be to a. take Kiev, b. encircle the 60,000 strong Ukrainian force that was preparing to attack Donbas c. take the coast.
Cont. reading: Disarming Ukraine – Day 1
Russia Is Back! (Repost from Feb 12, 2007)
This is a re-post of a piece originally published on February 12, 2007.
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With Putin's speech at the Munich Security Policy conference, Russia is back.
One wonders what took it so long. Yes, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the catastrophic neoliberal privatization of the Yeltzin years had taken their toll. But under Putin the oligarchs were finally told to behave and rule of law was restored. Increasing commodity prices allowed paying off Russia's international debt.
Still during the recent years little could be seen of Russia's international aura. Western financed NGOs stage managed one color revolution after the other. The EU swallowed the economic realm and in its steps, and against all past promises, NATO followed.
Now Russia said "'nuff". The last drop in the bucket were the U.S. plans to install parts of its missile defense system in eastern Europe. This neither makes sense to protect Europe, nor is it geographically relevant against (nonexistent) missiles from Iran or North Korea. The only plausible reason for these new weapons is to break the Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) balance that protected against a nuclear exchange during the cold war.
This and the accusations of human rights violations and autocratic behavior, of the U.S. imperialists and Abu Ghraib torturers, brought Russia back to the international scene.
Putin made clear that from now on, the rules are different and further unilateral behavior of the U.S. will not be condoned:
Cont. reading: Russia Is Back! (Repost from Feb 12, 2007)
Disarming Ukraine
The military of Russia has launched an operation to disarm, and possibly regime change, the Ukraine.
I do understand why Russia is doing this – it is either attack now or defend itself later with way more casualties and the danger of total defeat.
I had hoped though that it would find other methods to protect Russia from further NATO aggression.
In 2014 the U.S. instigated regime change in Kiev and has since controlled the Ukrainian government. It has build up the Ukraine as a base to strangle Russia economically and militarily.
During the last two centuries Russia had to defend itself, with horrific casualties, against two huge invasions from the west. It is understandable that it does not want to repeat that experience.
It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
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This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.
Excursus:
The yellow part of that map marked 'Ukraine in 1654' was actually the land of the Eastern Orthodox Zaporozhian Cossacks. Under threat from the Catholic Lithuanian-Polish Commonwealth, which at the time held the green parts under serfdom, they negotiated the Pereiaslav Agreement (1654) with Russia and pledged allegiance to the Tsar. They area thus became an autonomous part of Russia.
End Excursus
The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.
Thanks to Stalin's additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine's western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.
I hope for a sharp but short fight which destroys the Ukraine's military capabilities but causes as little casualties and other damages as possible.
It is sad that NATO countries, including mine, did not have the courage to make the necessary concessions to prevent this from happening.
Update:
Putin's speech last night (English version) explains why this is happening.
There Is Still No ‘Russian Invasion’ But The Sanctions Proceeded Anyway
The information war about the current U.S.-Russia standoff continues. That is why the New York Times is again pushing fake Russian invasion claims:
Russia faced mounting pressure and economic sanctions over the Ukraine crisis on Wednesday as the United States and allies coordinated punishments and denounced the beginning of an “invasion of Ukraine.”
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The global response began early Tuesday, just hours after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia recognized the self-declared separatist states in eastern Ukraine and Russian forces started rolling into their territory, according to NATO, European Union and White House officials. It was the first major deployment of Russian troops across the internationally recognized border since the current crisis began.
No Russian forces have recently been seen in Donbas or have been noticed rolling in. Moreover the Ukraine has made no claims that an invasion is happening.
The alleged invasion is again a claim without any evidence. It is part of the information war the U.S. is waging against Russia. All the anonymous intelligence-lacking officials who make such claims are simply lying. They have no sources or evidence to support such claims.
Just ask how many of them have predicted that Russia would officially recognize the Donbas republics? There is not one I am aware of.
As Patrick Cockburn notes:
Cont. reading: There Is Still No ‘Russian Invasion’ But The Sanctions Proceeded Anyway
Some Additional Bits On Ukraine
Yesterday Russia recognized the Donbas republics. This seems to include all of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions which are largely controlled by the Ukrainian government forces. Here are some bits on the fall-out.
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The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has halted the certification of the Nordstream II pipeline that is supposed to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany. That means higher energy prices for Germany and higher inflation.
Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE – 13:19 UTC · 22 Feb 2022
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
It is political harakiri and will therefore most likely be reversed.
I wonder why Scholz took this sensational step. The U.S. reaction seems way more muted.
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Showing 'unwavering' support by running away from the conflict:
US relocates Ukraine embassy staff to Poland
"For security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland. Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services," Blinken said in a statement, adding that the U.S. commitment to Ukraine remained "unwavering."
Cont. reading: Some Additional Bits On Ukraine
Russia’s Security Council Recommends To Recognize The Donbas Republics
Updated (again) below
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The Russian National Security Council has been meeting today to discuss the recognition of the Donetzk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) as independent states.
The whole meeting was shown on public TV. RT-English provided a live translation. The purpose of the show was to present Russia's arguments to an international public.
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Last week the Russian parliament submitted a resolution which asked the president of Russia to recognize the DNR and LNR. Earlier today the leaders of the DNR and LNR made a formal official request to recognize their republics.
The security council heard the opinions of the prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister. The leaders of parliament and of the security services also spoke.
Cont. reading: Russia’s Security Council Recommends To Recognize The Donbas Republics
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2022-015
> What Biden and Blinken fail to understand is that Russia is in total control of the narrative and timeline of the current crisis. <
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2022-015
Ukraine – Who Is Firing At Whom And Who Is Lying About It?
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has an observer mission along the line of control between the government and rebel side in south east Ukraine.
It reports that on Friday the number of ceasefire violations around the rebellious Donbas region of Ukraine had again nearly doubled:
- In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 222 ceasefire violations in the region.
- In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 648 ceasefire violations in the region.
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The ever lying New York Times claims that it is only the Donbas rebel side that is firing artillery:
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Who Is Firing At Whom And Who Is Lying About It?
Russia Is Pressing For More Concessions While Donbas Heats Up
Over the years Joe Biden has said a lot of nonsense. This though might top it all.
Biden Says Putin Has Chosen ‘Catastrophic’ War Over Diplomacy
Speaking from the Roosevelt Room in the White House, Mr. Biden said “we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days,” adding that “we believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”
Asked whether he thinks that Mr. Putin is still wavering about whether to invade, Mr. Biden said, “I’m convinced he’s made the decision.” Later, he added that his impression of Mr. Putin’s intentions is based on “a significant intelligence capability.”
Russia will not attack the Ukraine and will not target Kiev unless Russia itself is attacked in significant ways. Paul Robinson explains why:
Cont. reading: Russia Is Pressing For More Concessions While Donbas Heats Up
Open Thread 2022-14
Media Studies – (‘Russian Invasion’ Scam)
Material for media studies:
The Hill @thehill – 9:32 PM · Feb 3, 2022
Reporter: “It’s an action that you say they have taken, but you have shown no evidence to confirm that. […] This is like – crisis actors? Really? This is like Alex Jones territory you’re getting into now.”
Must-watch exchange between @APDiploWriter Matt Lee and @StateDeptSpox.
video
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> The U.S. intelligence briefing included specific reference to next Wednesday, February 16, as a start date for the ground invasion, three officials — based in Washington, London and Ukraine — told POLITICO. <
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> The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 16 was always overhyped. The time frame to really keep an eye on is what happens shortly after Feb. 20. <
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Cont. reading: Media Studies – (‘Russian Invasion’ Scam)
Happy ‘Russian Invasion’ Day
I woke up early today because the moon is full and I have been promised a 'Russian invasion'.
The sky was clouded, no moon to see, and the 'invasion' is for some reason way less bloody than anticipated.
Not all hope is lost though. It may still be coming:
The 3am time (1am GMT) when US intelligence sources suspected a Russian attack came and went without incident last night as Putin continued to keep The West guessing.
Cold clear skies over capital Kyiv – where locals had braced for an aerial blitz – remained silent save for passing commercial flights.
But tension remained high before dawn on the day American officials had said Putin’s invasion force would be unleashed on Ukraine.
I wonder why the map accompanying The Sun screed has four of the five arrows showing a 'possible Russian advance' plus all those artillery cannons and tanks point towards the east.
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What is this supposed to say?
Anyway, let's have a happy 'Russian invasion' day.
The Big White House Plans Behind Its ‘Russian Invasion’ Scam
As the 'Russian invasion' scam reaches new heights it is time to look at the motives behind it.
The noise has become deafening.
> The U.S. intelligence briefing included specific reference to next Wednesday, February 16, as a start date for the ground invasion, three officials — based in Washington, London and Ukraine — told POLITICO. <
'Could' is doing a lot of work in those headlines.
Can we get it a bit more precise?
1am or 3am?
Which is it?
And in what timezone?
And 200,000 troops? Yesterday there were only 100,000. How can those have doubled over night?
There is also the question of why.
Why has the Biden administration created an artificial 'crisis' about a Russian invasion of Ukraine when such an invasion is neither planned nor likely to happen? Why is it claiming that a Russian invasion of the Ukraine is 'imminent' when Russia as well as the Ukraine deny that any will be coming.
Why does it distribute misleading satellite pictures of allegedly deployed tanks when those are directly next to the barracks where they belong? Why does it hype a 'Russian buildup' when that is something that is claimed each and every year?
Jack Matlock, the last U.S. ambassador to the USSR, has one answer:
Cont. reading: The Big White House Plans Behind Its ‘Russian Invasion’ Scam
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