Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 06, 2022

The U.S. Directed Rebellion in Kazakhstan May Well Strengthen Russia

In early 2019 the Pentagon financed think tank RAND published an extensive plan for soft attacks on Russia.

Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground.

The 350 pages long report recommended certain steps to be taken by the U.S. to contain Russia. As its summary says:

Recognizing that some level of competition with Russia is inevitable, this report seeks to define areas where the United States can do so to its advantage. We examine a range of nonviolent measures that could exploit Russia’s actual vulnerabilities and anxieties as a way of stressing Russia’s military and economy and the regime’s political standing at home and abroad. The steps we examine would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose, although they might contribute to both. Rather, these steps are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, leading Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, and causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence.

RAND lists economical, geopolitical, ideological and informational as well as military measures the U.S. should take to weaken Russia.

Since the report came out the first four of the six 'geopolitical measures' listed in chapter 4 of the report have been implemented.


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The U.S. delivered lethal weapons to Ukraine, it increased its support for 'rebels' in Syria. It attempted a regime change in Belarus and instigated a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The U.S. is now implementing measure 5 which aims to 'reduce Russia's influence in Central Asia'.

Kazakhstan, Russia's southern neighbor, was part of the Soviet Union. It is a mineral rich, landlocked country three times the size of Texas but with less than 20 million inhabitants. A significant part of its people are Russians and the Russian language is in common use. The country is an important link in the strategic Belt and Road Initiative between China and Europe.


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Since the demise of the Soviet Union the country has been ruled by oligarchic family clans - foremost the Nazarbayevs. As the CIA Worldfactbook notes:

Executive branch

chief of state: President Kasym-Zhomart TOKAYEV (since 20 March 2019); note - Nursultan NAZARBAYEV, who was president since 24 April 1990 (and in power since 22 June 1989 under the Soviet period), resigned on 20 March 2019; NAZARBAYEV retained the title and powers of "First President"; TOKAYEV completed NAZARBAYEV's term, which was shortened due to the early election of 9 June 2019, and then continued as president following his election victory

Over the last decade there have been several uprisings (2011, 2016 and 2019) in Kazakhstan. These were mostly caused by uneven distribution of income from its minerals including oil and gas. The oligarchs in the capital of Astana / Nur-Sultan live well while the provinces which produce the minerals, like Mangistauskaya in the south-west, have seen few developments.

Recently the price for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used by many cars in Kazakhstan, went up after the government had liberalized the market. This caused another round of country wide protests:

The string of rallies that has torn through Kazakhstan since January 2 began in the western oil town of Zhanaozen, ostensibly triggered by anger over a sudden spike in the price of car fuel. Similar impromptu gatherings then quickly spread to nearby villages in the Mangystau region and then in multiple other locations in the west, in cities like Aktau, Atyrau and Aktobe. By January 4, people had come out onto the streets in numbers in locations many hundreds of kilometers away, in the southern towns of Taraz, Shymkent and Kyzyl-Orda, in the north, in the cities of Uralsk and Kostanai, as well as in Almaty and Nur-Sultan, the capital, among other places.

Few saw scenes as fiery as those in Almaty, though.

Clashes in Almaty continued throughout the night into January 5. After being dispersed by police from Republic Square, part of the crowd headed around two kilometers downhill, to another historic location in the city, Astana Square, where the seat of government used to be located in Soviet times.

While there is little reliable way to gauge the scale of the demonstrations, a combination of on-the-ground reporting and video footage appears to indicate that these protests may be even larger than those that brought the country to a near-standstill in 2016.

While the grievances that sparked the first rallies in Zhanaozen were to do with fuel prices, the sometimes rowdy demonstrations that have followed appear to be of a more general nature. Chants of “shal ket!” (“old man go!”), usually understood as a reference to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who continues to wield significant sway from behind the scenes, have been heard at many of the demos.

The protests escalated soon with gangs of armed protesters taking control of government buildings and setting them on fire. There were also attempts to take control of radio and TV stations as well as the airport. Police, which generally did little to intervene, were gunned down.

The actions in Almaty, the country's largest city and former capital, are certainly not spontaneous reactions by a crowd of poor laborers but controlled actions by well trained groups of armed 'rebels'.

Peter Leonard @Peter__Leonard - 9:18 UTC · 6 Jan 2022
Kazakhstan: Very important and intriguing detail with strong shades of Kyrgyzstan 2020. Peaceful people initiate rallies, but shady and violent individuals turn up to sow trouble, and it is never remotely clear who they are or where they came from /1 https://t.co/qYSlUUrMVx

From one account I heard, a similar dynamic played out in Almaty on Wednesday morning. A relatively small and mild gathering formed on Republic Square, opposite city hall. All of a sudden hundreds of extremely aggressive men turned up, threatening all and sundry #Kazakhstan /2

They threatened and attacked journalists standing nearby, ordering anybody who took photographs to delete the images. It was clearly this cohort that was responsible for much of the destruction. And it is a mystery (to me) who they were /3

We have seen similar formations during the U.S. instigated uprisings in Libya, Syria, Ukraine and Belarus.

NEXTA, the U.S. financed regime change media network in Poland which last year directed the failed color revolution attempt in Belarus, announced the U.S. demands:

NEXTA @nexta_tv - 13:52 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
Demands of the Protesters in #Kazakhstan
1. Immediate release of all political prisoners
2. Full resignation of president and government
3. Political reforms:
Creation of a Provisional Government of reputable and public citizens. Withdrawal from all alliances with #Russia

A more reliable source confirms these:

Maxim A. Suchkov @m_suchkov - 14:43 UST · Jan 5, 2022
The list of demands of protestors in #Kazakhstan that's been circulating is interesting, to put it mildly.
While most demands focus on bolstering social & economic support & countering corruption points #1, 7, 10, 13, 16 expose the roots of protest & who's driving them

#1 demands that #Kazakhstan should leave Eurasian Economic union.
#7 demands legalization of polygamy "for certain groups of the population" & prohibition on marriage with foreigners
#10 demands independence for Mangystau region &^that revenues of oil companies remain in Mangystau

Caveat: this list been circulating a lot on telegram - could be fake or not representative of what protestors want, thou it appears protestors are a diverse group that includes genuinely disgruntled people, political manipulators, "prof revolutionaries" (that were in UKR & BEL), etc

The government of Kazakhstan has since lowered the LPG prices. On January 5 President Tokayev relived the 'First President' Nazarbayev of his position as chairman of the Security Council and promised to act tough on armed protesters.

Kazakhstan is part of the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). On the morning of January 5 Tokayev had a phone call with the presidents of Russia and Belarus. He has mobilized airborne units of the armed forces of Kazakhstan. On the evening of January 5 he requested support from the CSTO against the 'foreign directed terrorists' which are fighting the security forces.

Russia, Belarus and other CSTO members have dedicated quick reaction forces reserved for such interventions. These will now be mobilized to regain government control in Kazakhstan. Russian CSTO forces are currently on their way to Kazakhstan. Belorussian and Armenian troops will follow soon.

They are in for some tough time:

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ ❄ @CalibreObscura - 19:50 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
#Kazakhstan: Captured arms from the National Security Committee (equivalent to Russian FSB) building by protestors in #Almaty: At least 2 PG-7V projectiles, possible boxed Glock pistol & (possibly) more in numerous scattered crates, various kit.
Anti-Armour capability in 48hrs...
Image

During the last decades the U.S. and its allies had been relatively quiet about the dictatorial leadership in Kazakhstan.

Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled - 14:18 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
NATO's cheerleading corner of FSU "experts" already working hard to spin Kazakhstan uprisings as somehow Putin's fault or indictment of Putin—but note how quiet our media-NGO complex has been the past 20 years re: the regime's human rights abuses, corruption & "authoritarianism"

Chevron is the largest oil producer in Kazakhstan and the former British prime minister Tony Blair has previously been giving advice to then President Nursultan Nazarbayev on how to avoid an uproar over dead protesters:

In a letter to Nursultan Nazarbayev, obtained by The Telegraph, Mr Blair told the Kazakh president that the deaths of 14 protesters “tragic though they were, should not obscure the enormous progress” his country had made.

Mr Blair, who is paid millions of pounds a year to give advice to Mr Nazarbayev, goes on to suggest key passages to insert into a speech the president was giving at the University of Cambridge, to defend the action.

Times however are different now as Kazakhstan has continued to strengthen its relations with Russia and China.

The CIA offshoot National Endowment for Democracy is financing some 20 'civil society' regime change programs in Kazakhstan with about $50,000 per annum each. The involved organizations  currently seem to be mostly quiet but are a sure sign that the U.S. is playing a role behind the scenes. On December 16 details of upcoming demonstrations were announced by the U.S. embassy in Kazakhstan.


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It is likely that this pre-planned Central Asia part of the 'Extending Russia' program has been implemented prematurely as a response to Russia's recent ultimatum with regards to Ukraine and NATO. Its sole purpose is to unbalance the Russian leadership in Moscow by diverting its attention towards the south.

I however believe that Russia has prepared for such eventualities. They will not affect its plans and demands.

What is difficult to discern though is what is really happening behind the scenes in Astana/Nur-Sultan. Has Tokayev, who was previously seen as a mere puppet of Nazarbayev, really replaced him? His control of the security forces is somewhat in doubt:

Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 19:18 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
Tokayev dismissed the head of his security guard Saken Isabekov. Also, the President dismissed the Deputy Head of the State Security Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan from his post

But the outcome of the whole game is quite predictable:

Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled - 14:31 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
The grim likelihood, given all the various "revolutions" in the FSU the past 20 years, is that Kazakhstan's street protests [will be] instrumentalized by a powerful clan to replace the ruling oligarchy with a new oligarchy.

The CSTO troops which are now landing in Almaty will take a few days to end the rebellion. The outcome is not in doubt.

Moscow, not Washington DC, will have a big say in who will come out at the top.

It is quite possible that the results of the whole affair will, like the failed U.S. regime change attempts in Belarus, not weaken but strengthen Russia:

Dmitri Trenin @DmitriTrenin - 7:57 UTC · 6 Jan 2022
#Kazakhstan is another test, after #Belarus, of RUS ability to help stabilize its formal allies w/o alienating their populations. As 1st action by CSTO since founding in 1999, it is major test for bloc. Lots of potential pitfalls around, but can be big boon if Moscow succeeds.

Posted by b on January 6, 2022 at 9:19 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Of course, this is an action coordinated from abroad.
The demonstrators even had the same protective shields that were known from the Maidan at the time.
Well, that has nothing to say at first, but it's still funny.

In any case, this action, which was coordinated from the Ukraine script, was carried out in such a planned and massive manner. Actually, I am amazed that the Kazakh government acted so weakly and completely taken by surprise. Even the Ukrainian government at the time was more resistant to the regime changer during the Maidan.

But interesting. After the front in the Caucasus (Chechnya) was not breached by the west and also not the front in the east (Belarus), they are now going through Central Asia and trying to kill two birds with one stone: Russia and China.
Nothing would be nicer for the transatlantic coons than to settle in the immediate vicinity between Russia and China.

Posted by: Nick | Jan 6 2022 20:23 utc | 101

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 6 2022 11:11 utc | 12

ooda in the west is destroyed by politics, GIGO..(Garbage in Garbage out)

Posted by: Per/Norway | Jan 6 2022 20:24 utc | 102

@pretzelattack:
"does anybody happen to know what was in the vial that Colin Powell brandished at the UN, pretending it was weaponized anthrax?"

Yes...I believe it was an old vial of blow left over from Shrub's party days while he was AWOL from the Guard that He then gave to Powell for that infamous UN charade that then most likely ended up being snorted by one, if both of Shrub's twins.

Posted by: thewokendead | Jan 6 2022 20:26 utc | 103

karlof1 98
This is interesting in relation as to why the color rev attempt has been triggered at this time.

I would like to emphasise that immediately after the transfer of these projects to the Americans, we had a fairly productive conversation in Moscow with our CSTO allies and some other countries, and we are also in dialogue with them.

What makes this a little more complicated I think is something of a division in the US with one faction wanting to wind down all other actions to concentrate on China and another faction wanting to keep up Russia provocations while also trying to take down China. UK are mostly fixated on Russia and are not quite as enthusiastic about taking down China especially if that means making peace with Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 20:32 utc | 104

Russia will be even less willing to compromise in coming discussions and negotiations with US and NATO over Ukraine and security.
Well done, lads, really.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jan 6 2022 20:39 utc | 105

...for what it's worth, from State...
Secretary Blinken’s Call with Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Tileuberdi - Jan 6, 2022
The below is attributable to Spokesperson Ned Price:
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi regarding the ongoing state of emergency in Kazakhstan. The Secretary reiterated the United States’ full support for Kazakhstan’s constitutional institutions and media freedom and advocated for a peaceful, rights-respecting resolution to the crisis. The Secretary also raised the priority of promoting stability in Europe, including support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to Russian aggression. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 6 2022 20:48 utc | 106

I just saw that Blinken is saying "no deal with Russia if gun pointed at Ukraine's head". So he doesn't like being on the other end of the gun? The US elites will have to get used to that as China, Russia, and Iran continue to get stronger along with the SCO, CSTO, BRI etc. It will be a painful learning exercise.

I agree with B that the events in Kazakhstan, whoever started them, will most probably strengthen Russia's hand in the area. The US has lost Central Asia, they just can't deal with that reality right now. They will keep trying and failing of course.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220105-blinken-says-no-progress-with-russia-so-long-as-gun-to-ukraine-s-head

Posted by: Roger | Jan 6 2022 20:53 utc | 107

Russian troops going in bigly - with what looks like air defense units.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgYzmoOHoX4

NED involvement in Kazakhstan in 2021 - gazillions of small scale projects adding up to quite a sum for Kazakhs

https://www.ned.org/region/eurasia/kazakhstan-2020/

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Jan 6 2022 20:56 utc | 108

Arfur Mo | Jan 6 2022 20:56 utc | 107

In that first video the dish that can be seen on a truck in the Il-76 is believed to be Electronic Warfare related not SAM. The taking over or suppression of mobile phone traffic, being used for unofficial command and control, is of course vital.

Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 6 2022 21:10 utc | 109

Kill them all, Mr Putin

Posted by: Nick | Jan 6 2022 21:18 utc | 110

thanks b and to the many knowledgeable posters here... definitely colour revolution.. also, i'm more inclined to this uk - turkey are behind this, as a favour for usa, or more? goes with @ dh-mtls ongoing theories too..

@ 27 skiffer... it is highly possible ukraine is playing a role in all this. i wouldn't close the door on that idea either.... my 2 c's... bottom line, i think this serves russias interests more then it does the usa's...

Posted by: james | Jan 6 2022 21:21 utc | 111

How Turkey expanded its influence in Central Asia:

Turkey is becoming More Entrenched in Central Asia (New Eastern Outlook

"Ankara’s strategic goal has always been to develop and consolidate strong military, political, and economic ties with both Azerbaijan and the countries in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan)...Ankara has recently been trying energetically to close the loop between itself and these countries in most of these areas, pushing Russia and China, which traditionally have influence in this region, into the background.

"In recent decades, Ankara’s expansionist ambitions have begun to grow especially rapidly, with President Erdogan’s emphasis on consolidating the “territory of Turan” as a global supranational entity that unites both Turkic and other peoples across Central Asia and Siberia. And the turning point in this regard was, of course, creating the Turkic Council in 2009...

"Ankara began to build relations in Central Asia by actively applying the tried-and-true method used by the West of involving various NGOs to change political priorities and orientations in the region’s countries. For these purposes, at the level of social projects, education, cultural event, and developing cooperation across various fields, including military cooperation, Turkey began to create centers with a permanent presence for the pro-Turkish lobby, and in particular in Kazakhstan, where a whole generation of the elite has grown up that was educated in Turkish schools and universities...

"Establishing the Central Asian Universities Association, which unites the region’s most prestigious universities, together with Turkish higher educational institutions, and creating a wide network of schools funded by the Turkish government, has made preferable conditions for students in Central Asian republics to study in them.

"Turkey’s use of this “soft power” factor to strengthen its positions in Central Asia has been accompanied by active steps taken by Ankara to remove the Cyrillic alphabet from the region’s countries." This last point makes these countries closer to Turkey and distances them from Russia.

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 6 2022 21:27 utc | 112

GMC #50

Re Dilyana Gaytandzhieva

This site might assist: https://armswatch.com/author/dilyana-gaytandzhieva/

She is an excellent journo.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 6 2022 21:31 utc | 113

https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/hating-russia-is-a-full-time-job/

This devotion of resources to weaken Russia makes little to no sense in terms of US security.

The massive over-representation of a small ethno-religious minority in government from WW1 on always requires analysis - Pavlovian-brainwashed reactions about this being 'hate' aside.

"Hate" is being an accessory to ongoing mass murders because, as with the Pentagon's Office of Special Plans before the Iraq war - one is too afraid to speak Truth to minority-megalomaniacal power

Posted by: Jimmy C | Jan 6 2022 21:35 utc | 114

Thanks for the useful sit rep b. Solid old-fashioned boot-strap journalism. The contrast with the pathetic infantile MSM clearly illuminated.

Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 6 2022 21:36 utc | 115

It only serves Russian interests if they are able to both demonstrate the viability of CSTO in rectifying these sort of situations and if they get public support in Kazakhstan on their side while, naturally, keeping the cost of troops and equipment to a minimum so as not to set off the domestic electorate. There's plenty of leeway for mistakes and unforeseen developments that could still turn this thing on its head, and that's even if Putin, rather uncharacteristically, is the one who decided to dabble in controllable chaos complete with head-choppers. Failure in Kazakhstan could potentially open Russia up to incursion from Afghanistan, negate recent gains of influence in the middle-east, create another frozen conflict in its "soft underbelly" and deprive Russia of both natural resources and infrastructure in which it is heavily invested. To treat it like a done deal or underestimate the stakes in this development is a big mistake.

Russian mainstream media for today, from the mouths of the most prominent political commentators, has been extraordinarily critical about Russian government response and the general state of relations with Kazakhstan over the years. The key take-away is that Putin has been irresponsible in allowing the situation in Kazakhstan to get to this point; that the general situation should have been resolved both years ago and that this development more specifically should have been nipped in the bud before any human casualties and property damage. The impression I get is that Russian analysts are nervous and on edge.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jan 6 2022 21:41 utc | 116

Si la pradera estaba seca la culpa no es de quien la prendiò fuego.

Posted by: Frasco | Jan 6 2022 21:52 utc | 117

2008: Spurred on by his Western patrons, Saakashvili kills Russian peacekeepers and begins aggression against South Ossetia. The result is the compulsion of Georgia to peace in 5 days, the separation and independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, their transfer under [tacit] control of the Russian Federation.

2014: An anti-Russian coup d'etat in Ukraine, incited by the 'collective West'. The result is the withdrawal of Crimea into the Russian Federation (Russia could only dream of this). Separation of the southeastern regions from Ukraine, their [inevitable future] entry into the Russian Federation. The transformation of Ukraine into a beggar backyard of Europe, a burdensome weight on the legs of the West. A convenient excuse for Russia to build another gas pipe, now bypassing Ukraine, which means getting more independence in supplies (it is better when you do not depend on an obstinate and inadequate transit country).

2020: Western-instigated Maidan attempt in Belarus. The result is even closer cooperation between Belarus and Russia, the strengthening of the Russian Federation in the republic, the intensification of integration programs, the prospect of the appearance in Belarus (if necessary) of full-fledged military bases of the Russian Federation with the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons.

2020: Instigated by the West (the UK by the hands of Turkey), aggravation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The result is the discrediting of the pro-Western Armenian Permier Pashinyan, the loss of a number of territories by Armenia. The emergence of a contingent of Russian military in the region. In general - a significant increase in the presence and influence of Russia in the region.

Dear U.S. & Co, please don't stop! Do implement your anti-Russian plans! Kazakhstan, then Moldova.. - great. I sincerely hope you don’t change your mind.

Posted by: alaff | Jan 6 2022 22:01 utc | 118

Is it just me, or has the CIA's colour revolution game-plan been showing diminishing returns?

Back in the day they were hugely successful, resulting in puppet governments galore. Huzzah!

But lately?

Hong Kong was a fizzle. Belarus was a non-event.

Ukraine failed dismally in its main goal, which was to rip Sevastopol away from the Russian Navy.

The only real "success" lately is to turn the rest of Ukraine into a failed neo-Nazi state, which didn't so much turn it into a compliant client state as turn it into a costly burden on the West.

I do hope someone at Langley can perform cost-benefit analysis, because the return on investment is looking pretty sickly of late.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 6 2022 22:07 utc | 119

Peter AU1 @103--

Yes, there's a split in the factions as several have now opined, but the British are the worst with their multi-generational hatred of Russians specifically and Slavs generally. Both MI-6 and CIA are involved as is the entire Outlaw US Empire regime change apparatus. Martyanov in his latest posting touched on the energy related geoeconomic implications I commented about yesterday regarding several very visible symbiotic Russian and Chinese projects that will place EAEU/SCO members and allies in an excellent position relative to future development and ecological balance. The genuine post-hydrocarbon energy engines are being developed by Russia and China, not the West in any manner, with perhaps the exception of France. See this comment from yesterday.

Neoliberalism and the related semi-fascist mechanisms required for its implementation and those managing it all are the forces responsible for the past 40 years of global upheaval. What's occurred over the last 15 years on the Big Picture scale is the reaction and pushback against it by nations that escaped being turned into vassals. That such a movement originated in Asia is easy to explain given the genocidal onslaught it experienced, which in some areas continues. The West's portion of humanity is small, roughly 1/7th; and thanks to Neoliberalism, its power on the global stage will eventually shrink to that proportion--a fact Neoliberals have yet to confront. Psychohistorian's label--Civilizational War--IMO is quite apt and becomes even more so when combined with its other component--the 4,000+ yearlong Class War between Creditors and Debtors. Humanity was exposed to the idea of human-centered development being the proper course of action long ago, and the idea has persisted despite being buried only to be revived many times since. That's what Kazakhs want. Indeed, that's what the people inhabiting the entire former Soviet space want. And crucially that's what Asians want. NATO's eastward expansion is all about negating what those people want.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 22:37 utc | 120

William Haught @ 100:

When the conjoined triplets share the same head and brain, arguing who is responsible is like trying to, er ... split hairs.

Posted by: jen | Jan 6 2022 22:48 utc | 121

Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 6 2022 21:36 utc | 114

As an illustration of the idiocy of MSM reporting consider this line from today's Sydney Morning Herald on the situation in Kazakhstan:

"One police officer was found beheaded in the unrest, which poses a growing challenge to authoritarian rule in the former Soviet republic."

So, let me try to walk through this dumb logic:

Step 1: 'Authoritarian rule' signals a universally bad thing;
Step 2: Protest against authoritarian rule is therefore a good thing;
Step 3: 'Protesters' is MSM code for 'democratic freedom fighters';
Step 4: Protesters kill 13 police with stolen automatic weapons and behead one of them.

Clearly the logic unravels at this point. After all, isn't 'beheading' the universal MSM image of 'crazy terrorist'?

Step 5: Ignore beheading because police in an authoritarian state must be oppression bots who hate freedom and therefore had it coming;
Conclusion: protesters opposing vaccination mandate in Melbourne can behead police so long as it 'poses challenge to authoritarian rule'?

Nooooo!

404 error. Bad System Logic. Your computer will shut down in 59 seconds...

Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 6 2022 23:04 utc | 122


Arfur Mo at #107


re: NED involvement in Kazakhstan - I would be willing to place bets that after Russia and the CSTO calm things down a bit, that the current administration in Kazakhstan will come down not only harshly on all those who have received recent NED grants but perhaps even outlaw the NED and many other meddling western NGOs

I do wonder though why any third world/global south country would allow so many meddling NGOs in their country to begin with.

Russia may well end up rounding up some MI6 agents too...... well, we can only hope!


Posted by: michaelj72 | Jan 6 2022 23:04 utc | 123

karlof1 119
I can only agree with what is in that post.

james 110
UK or US? UK relies on US for muscle and US factions can use UK to advance their interests. My thought is UK would not step up if they did not have US factions backing them.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 23:10 utc | 124

Protestors, rebels, terrorist, revolutionaries or what?

I guess the correct name for these groups and their supporters is arsonists.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jan 6 2022 23:12 utc | 125

migueljose | 56

Regardless, my guess is that the Victoria Nuland factions are happy with the Kazak chaos and are doing what they can to stoke it
The vid snippet of Nuland giving the game away that the US coup in Ukraine had a price tag of $5billion. …. She’s standing on a stage with the Chevron logo as the corporate sponsor.
The very first movement in this Kazakhstan attempted color revolution was workers striking at the Chevron oil site at xxxx.
Coincidence. ? No. It’s all connected.

The price rise was known and came into effect Jan 1. So that gave Team Kaos a starters gun. And a cause célèbre…everyone hates a price rise.

@karlof1:
> Who authorized the action since it directly undermines Biden's position …
Nuland and her ^faction^.

@javierblas Jan6:
1/ Oil workers at the Tengiz field (the largest in Kazakhstan) have joined the protests. The Chevron-led operator of the oilfield said production hasn’t been affected(*), however. The protests started after a hike in LPG prices (vid of workers walking)
Jan8: OIL MARKET: Amid unrest in Kazakhstan, the operator of the country's largest oilfield says there has been a "temporary adjustment" to output. Chevron is the largest shareholder of the Tengiz oilfield.

(*)*vertigo inducing spin…..vision of several hundred workers walking off site= no disruption…..can we ask… why have workers at all?

@ Peter AU1 | 86 The only game in town is the ‘Hey, NATO get off my lawn“ directive from Russia. The empire was not expecting that; has no answer; and responded with the dog-eared color playbook.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 6 2022 23:18 utc | 126

The most corrupt Israeli PM in their history recently wrote a slobbering tribute to their leader, gushing over their natural resources.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/israel-kazakhstan-celebrating-30-years-of-cooperation-opinion-688968

US diplomatic representation there is dominated by his coethnics. Front groups like USAID, VOA, and other NGOs are very active there. Pay attention to the names of "journalists" you see there. Not so representative of the average American.

Posted by: Tadpole | Jan 6 2022 23:18 utc | 127

Assuming that we can safely rule out the idea that it was not a NATOstani instigated colour revolution, I can see two possibilities.

In both, the idea was for a colour revolution a few more weeks down the line, say when Putin would be in Beijing for the Olympics in February, just like the Ukranazi coup took place during the Olympics in Sochi, but it took off prematurely because

1. Of the overnight doubling of petrol prices and anger over that, with the colour revolutionaries themselves taken by surprise and then scrambling to take control, or

2. The colour revolution organisers in NATOstan ordering a premature beginning in a desperate effort to distract Russian attention from Ukranazistan and the demand for NATO to step away from Russian borders.

Either way the colour revolution industry is losing its touch.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 6 2022 23:22 utc | 128


They are absolutely falling to pieces in a blind panic.
She has no idea what to do.
Just look at this lunacy.

The west has limited influence, but is not without leverage. Large sums of Kazakh money are sequestered in London (where “British professional service providers enable post-Soviet elites to launder their money and reputations”, a stinging Chatham House report noted last month). Anti-corruption campaigners have rightly urged that as the rich and well-connected flee, law enforcement agencies, financial institutions and service providers should be watching carefully and reporting, freezing and seizing assets as appropriate. The US, EU and UK should also do their utmost to urge the leadership to respect protesters’ rights.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/06/the-guardian-view-on-kazakhstans-unrest-danger-ahead


Also known as "How to sink the City of London in two short steps"

Posted by: John Cleary | Jan 6 2022 23:25 utc | 129

On the map Allmighty looks awfully close to China. Imagine contagion then full-blown insurrection in Uyghurstan. Followed by Tibet and Taiwan declaring independence. The CCP would be overwhelmed, no doubt. The Chinese can kiss their mild prosperity goodbye. Its gonna be a return to the dark ages with China partitioned into a million pieces and warlords everywhere. Maybe we've been too quick to write off the Empire here at MoA. We may have developed some groupthink where we're reinforcing each other in assessing the Empire as in the last stages of decrepitness. This may be far from true. What if the Empire still holds the best cards? What if 2022 is the year The Empire Strikes Back? OMG, will the misery never end?

Posted by: Robert Macaire | Jan 6 2022 23:25 utc | 130

This is Erdogans point of view : dailysabah

..those Kazakhs, who were trained in Turkey at the educational institutions of Fetullah Gülen, the organizer of the coup attempt in Ankara, are at the helm.

Gülen so it must be CIA.

Parliament Speaker Mustafa Şentop said
"We believe that the state of Kazakhstan and the brotherly people of Kazakhstan will overcome these difficult days with common sense and will quickly attain peace and stability," Şentop said on Twitter on Thursday. "Turkey always stands by Kazakhstan."

Posted by: gary | Jan 6 2022 23:36 utc | 131

@oriental voice
Re the “is it 1962 or not” debate.
Yes. Yes it is. An we should all be very alarmed. That’s the opinion of the now late Stephen Cohen.
Who’s he? (Well, his opinion was once eagerly sought,at the time of the Cuban crisis, and subsequent Cold War, but he fell foul of the RussiaRussiaRussia paroxysms of rage and died of lung cancer and disillusionment.
Here he is in a well worth watching interview in 2019.
U.S. Hoped Putin Would be a ‘Sober Yeltsin’ - RAI with Stephen Cohen (3/5)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF56A1HCPtU&list=PLhvPB4lyc4dT3eRGa6nF2Yrish0ydOfx2&index=3

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 6 2022 23:43 utc | 132

Posted by: Robert Macaire | Jan 6 2022 23:25 utc | 129

Be that as it may, socially and economically the US is disintegrating. The benefits of success (whatever that would look like) could only string out the lifespan of the financialization phase so much. The problems of US hegemony are internal, structural and terminal. The destabilzation of China could only accelerate that given the US entanglement in global capital flows over which it has little to no control. The only 'card' the US currently holds is to pitch the world further into chaos throwing the pieces across the table like an angry child losing at Monopoly.

I believe collectively here there is enough learning and self-reflexivity to ensure that groupthink is avoided. The China-Russia axis is now a credible international counter-weight to US hegemony and the consequences of that will become ever more apparent. But the real rot will strike the US from within. If vk were still posting no doubt he'd say that the US will dissipate over the next quarter century into a failed state governed by dictators, oligarchs and an increasingly evangelized military which will be less and less able to intervene globally. It is the USA that will return to the dark ages, balkanized into gated communities and run by woke corporatists presiding over vast lawless territories filled with homeless nomads and the dispossessed middle classes clutching AR-15s.

Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 6 2022 23:44 utc | 133

ADKC #81 @ #87

"Britain always gets an easy ride on such things; they should be subject to more scrutiny by the commentators here."

Thank you for that report from NEO at #81 and your commentary.

It does not surprise me at all to find a grubby Erdogan/MI6 hand in this game.

These stan states are vulnerable as their elites and oligarchs impoverish citizens and parade their wealth. That will always leave the nation exposed to exploitable discontent and genuine alienation. Oligarchism needs to be outlawed and pursued to an early grave through the simple mechanisms of regulation and taxation. Alienation needs to be reversed through crafting a society where one can envisage and achieve a meaningful, fruitful life.

The vultures of pyramidal capitalism need to be dispatched to the stone quarries or perhaps according to the technique so clearly described by George W Oprisco at #82.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 6 2022 23:45 utc | 134

Ollie: "Well, here's a another nice mess you've gotten me into."

No more banana republics left to create. No more oil patches left to regime change. Is that James Bond I see there in front of me in this unemployment line?

Posted by: blues | Jan 6 2022 23:49 utc | 135

Some speculations and their justifications.

1. The numbers, organization and ability of the "protesters" were on a large scale, much larger than a tightly conspiratorial organization can achieve. Since they appeared to be militants with experienced leadership, they probably included alumni of Syrian jihad. Other suspects could be Gulenists, Pan-Turanists etc., in all cases it would be Turkish links, with AKP/Erdogan or not.
2. Such organization would need to recruit with a semi-transparent cover, like martial arts clubs (frequent in Ukraine, and practical in those situations). Thus it would be easy to be noticed and penetrated by the security forces of the state. The launching a coup attempt could originate from different directions.
3. There are several cui bono's, objective and subjective, Tokayev, Putin, Erdogan, USA ...

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 23:53 utc | 136

Frasco #116

Si la pradera estaba seca la culpa no es de quien la prendiò fuego.

If the meadow was dry, it's not the fault of the one who set it on fire.

I totally disagree - both are at fault and inescapably so. The oligarchy and thieving minions need to be outed and or eliminated as they threaten social cohesion and wealth generation. The pyromaniac in this case is equally an opportunistic destroyer.

Estoy totalmente en desacuerdo, ambos tienen la culpa e inevitablemente. La oligarquía y los secuaces ladrones deben ser descubiertos o eliminados, ya que amenazan la cohesión social y la generación de riqueza. El pirómano en este caso es igualmente un destructor oportunista.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 6 2022 23:56 utc | 137

Lol fake new i read the document it says nothing about stirring up revolutions in Kazakhstan

Posted by: Lolol | Jan 6 2022 23:59 utc | 138

I believe that Kzahstan was induced to sign a disadvantegous contract with Chevron under which the
country's oil/gas has been exploited with only a pittance remitted to the country.

Given the current situation, with a color revolution instigated by NED of the USA, Chevron's country, would it not be sensible to attribute the unrest to Chevron itself??
In that case would it not be appropriate to SEIZE ALL CHEVRON ASSETS in the FSU??? Worldwide??

Just asking,

INDY

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Jan 7 2022 0:01 utc | 139

Seize all Kazakhstan Chevron assets -- basic asset forfeiture -- all fine and perfectly legal.

Posted by: blues | Jan 7 2022 0:29 utc | 140

While not directly about Kazakhstan's event, these two essays deal with the overall Big Picture context that it's subsumed within. "It’s time to prepare for the post-American age: Washington’s role in the world is diminishing. What comes next?", and "America’s Malaise and Its ‘Failure of National Purpose’ – ‘Things Are Not Getting Better’". And here's another good analysis of Kazakh events I've not seen posted, "Anti-State Terrorists Are Attempting A Hybrid War Coup In Kazakhstan".

As the Outlaw US Empire's strength and abilities wane, those nations and peoples who have suffered under its boot are in the process of taking full advantage; but the advantages they seek are not those aimed at by Imperialists and their authoritarian associates that were captured both before and after WW2. Rather, what most of the world's people want I've already written about and whose wishes were articulated by an American Aristocratic pair--Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his wife Eleanor: The Four Freedoms; International Law as set down in the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Those ought to be the fruits of free people everywhere and the primary values and guidelines for proper governance with absolutely no room for hegemony from any source. The only allowed coercion ought to be related to enforcement of legal laws--those that are in accordance with what's articulated above. Yes, such an agenda will find itself in conflict with religions that seek to control certain aspects of society, just as it will be resisted by elites insisting they are the only ones capable of leadership--hierarchies thus will use whatever means to retain their existence. But those are finally being seen as at best non-productive means belonging to a bygone era by evermore people. Contradictions have a way of breaking themselves and those that hold onto them. We see that phenomena at work daily within the Outlaw US Empire and its Neoliberal vassals. Overall, the world isn't headed for a grand upheaval; rather, it's those nations that deny its people the opportunity to freely develop their own path forward that will experience roiling from within. Such is the Big Picture in the ongoing Saga: As the World Turns.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 7 2022 0:45 utc | 141

Peterau 123
> My thought is UK would not step up if they did not have US factions backing them.
Circa Iran, 1954. Cue Kermit Roosevelt.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 0:47 utc | 142

"Turkey and China may also have plans about Kazakhstan. Sinologist Nikolai Vavilov suggested that the purpose of the crisis in Kazakhstan was to pull the country out from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation so that it could subsequently enter into close military cooperation with Turkey, and through it with NATO.

"Turkey will thus gain a direct corridor to Xinjiang and begin providing direct support to East Turkestan. Russia will thus gain a potential hot front of not hundred, as in the case of Ukraine, but thousands of kilometres of unstable borders that would thus be open to militants from Afghanistan and the Middle East. The Urals, the Volga region and Western Siberia will all be destabilized," Nikolay Vavilov wrote in his Telegram channel."


https://english.pravda.ru/world/150002-kazakhstan_riots/

Posted by: daffyDuct | Jan 7 2022 0:58 utc | 143

daffyDuct @142--

Silly man didn't take the time to see who Putin was conversing with prior to, during and after new years--all leaders of the concerned nations plus Nazarbaev--otherwise his speculations would need to be rather different. Pravda does continue to be a propaganda outlet, only it changed sides.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 7 2022 1:10 utc | 144

Karlof1
Re Turkey. Did you see my link in the (laughs) “slow news day thread”…
Some funny money stuff happened with the Turkish lira Dec31.
Someone had a $10b payday.
I’m not a “finance guy”, so it’s be great if someone who does have insight into the mystery of fast moving money could interpret.
I’m thinking color revs don’t come cheap
$5b for Ukraine
Was the $10b a payoff for whoever re Kazakhstan?

One-Day $10 Billion Profit Erases Turkey Central Bank Losses
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/single-day-10-billion-profit-094442241.html

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 1:36 utc | 145

Did anyone else think Jen Psaki, one time State Dept, looked shaken as she “protested too much” in almost outrage; insisting any intimation that Kazakhstan was a US-sponsored color rev, was of course “Russian misinformation”
Meryl Streep she ain’t.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 1:44 utc | 146

@ Patroklos 132
socially and economically the US is disintegrating. . .the real rot will strike the US from within.
Yes. It is striking.
Mentally & physically. About 75 percent of US 17- to 24-year-olds are ineligible for the military due to lack of education, obesity, physical problems or criminal charges. Overall, almost half of Americans are obese. They don't walk for one thing, must ride everywhere. Then there is the racism and the high levels of incarceration, as well as homelessness. Proper health care? Forget it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 7 2022 1:52 utc | 147

The Crown and Royals and exorbitantly privileged Lady/Lord Gotbucks family trees are the antithesis of communism/socialism ...even "communism/socialism
with [fill-in name of nation state] characteristics."

Fairness AKA justice either is or is not; any twisting/bending of fairness begets further departure from fairness until we arrive at the current scene of confused/murky understandings, contradictory actions and pain followed by death...the last a condition of being at total effect and total inability to cause any effect.

No wonder dynasties cringe at the thought of acting for the benefit of all citizens...talk and promises and momentary socialistic feints are not socialism.

It is curious that emperors and kings persist for 100s of years as rule-by-family on islands, or even land-islands [surrounded by lots of open space instead of sea]. Their isolation enables their insanity to persist for so long. This situation has been "upgraded" by their creation of weapons of such mass destruction that a balance of Mutually Assured Destruction has actually boosted their persistence.

To avoid the action of MAD, there is only communication to bring mutual understanding by introducing willingness to cooperate on survival activities that benefit all who want to live without plundering others' rights to live.

So let's get on with it.

Posted by: chu teh | Jan 7 2022 1:53 utc | 148

Thank you b for the analysis. I was also reading the latest at Andrei Martyanov’s blog. He posted a comment, in response to a comment below his post, that I thought provided a succinct summary of his view on things:

“I am sure some special forces units from Russia were on the ground already few days ago. I am sure the hunt for West's sponsored operatives is on. Per clan and Islamic element--Kazakhstan has its own armed forces, now supported by ODKB, they can mop those up. Nazarbaev's policies should go now.”

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jan 7 2022 2:10 utc | 149

Crimea The Way Home EN Subtitles Full Documentary HD 2hr25.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbGhKfWrfOQ

this excellent documentary shows, the Russian government could see that the violent manner in which the elected Ukrainian leader Yanukovich had been ousted from power - with American fingerprints all over it - meant chaos would soon spread throughout Ukraine, and that the majority ethnic Russian population in Crimea would be among the worst hit by neo-Nazi militias terrorizing anyone whom they considered 'insufficiently loyal' to the US-selected regime.
When President Yanukovich fled the capital on February 22nd 2014, President Putin set in motion a series of responses that would present the first real (and successful) challenge to American imperial hegemony.

It’s years since I watched this. I’m about to give it another view.

My timefaded memory is that Putin felt the biggest mistake made by Yanukovich, was that he hesitated in crushing the Maiden in the first few hours.
Putin understood the hesitation. Yanukovich just couldn’t bring himself to order the shooting of Ukrainians.
The western media was howling like banshees calling for him to show “restraint”.
(While buildings burned, citizens and police were shot by snipers, and governance was destroyed).

Putin, lived through the Russian “civil” war of the 1990s, survived internal Kremlin and oligarch treachery, and took the reins of a failing nation; he will not be making the Yanukovich mistake.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 2:13 utc | 150

where's Niall K w/pix of a baby discomforted by a nasal swab and of a 5 yr old kid squirming during a mandated vaccine, to convince us of the sorrow, the horror and the pity of the tyrannical ruler du jour?

now why would an American give a flying fuck about the supposed crimes of some other country on the other side of the world?

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 7 2022 2:24 utc | 151

@ Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 1:36 utc | 144 with the link and question about the Turkey Central Bank "profits"

I read the article and at the end there was a suggestion of reporting some of next quarters "profits" early but that only cover 44 billion lira of the 60 billion lira reported so you are right to question what accounting advice was given that was alluded to in the article.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 7 2022 2:33 utc | 152

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 6 2022 22:07 utc | 118

I think the saker has made quite good observation of how color revolution could work which is apart from fifth columnist/western aligned factions on the ground they need
1. Supplies and weapons to overpower the state security apparatus.
2. western direct interventions primarily through air bombing campaigns against targeted country military.

Posted by: Lucci | Jan 7 2022 2:52 utc | 153

I hope we get to learn much more about the mechanics of these battles as CSTO does its work. So much to learn about civil battlefield tactics.

The battles on the ground throughout Central Asia now must be from CSTO wiping out the traveling bandit forces of the west: the terrorist, jihadis, gladio, isis, whatever names we want. And in whatever outhouses they are found.

How many of them are there currently on the books (in the "database")? 100,000? Far fewer? Perhaps the 7,000 or so we kept hearing were airlifted from Syria to Afghanistan - or was that officers, and did most of the rank and file simply transit through Turkey to await next assignments?

How easily can one recruit such people? What training do they need? Are we talking about a fixed and finite force of people who can eventually all be destroyed, or do these mercenary bandit armies spring from an inexhaustible fountain, so that agencies with a few million can easily put together the necessary militias?

I know so little about this terrorism that the west has deployed for so many decades now, and so pervasively throughout the world.

~~

From what little I've seen about boots on the ground in the Kazakhstan, there seem only to be a few hundred thugs. And while that's a formidable strike force against civilians and regular police when each thug us ruthless, and armed, it doesn't seem like many for such a large goal.

It surprises me in general that such an impact can come from such a small force. That always has surprised me about these affairs. Quite a bit of national unrest from only a few hundred bandits. Something I'm underestimating, perhaps.

Does anyone have an estimate of how many of these mercenaries are involved in this?

~~

By the way, I agree that this move is the debut of CSTO as a peacekeeping force, and will send a massive surge of strength (and pride, even) through the backbone of Asia - but I don't think it diminishes the UN in any way, or competes with it.

Perhaps our diplomats here can explain, but I doubt if there is anything about CSTO or this formal invoking of a peacekeeping force that violates or even pressures international law. I assume that CSTO has some kind of standing to be recognized by and to engage with the UN.

~~

Anyway, in short, there is a rich learning for the world to come out of this event, about how the new multi-polar world will police itself, and this has already started.

Posted by: Grieved | Jan 7 2022 3:22 utc | 154

The empire has released its choir book:
Kazakhstan: What's behind the unrest and is a revolution brewing?
https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/06/kazakhstan-what-s-behind-the-unrest-and-is-a-revolution-brewing
>…”The analyst described the ongoing events as "pre-revolutionary" with similarities to the Arab Spring and Ukraine's Maidan movement in 2013.
[lol. They just tagged their graffiti]
>…”Is the regime likely to be toppled?”
[we lost control when the internet went down…. We have no idea ]
>…”Temur Umarov, a research consultant at the Carnegie Centre in Moscow, told Euronews that "so far, the situation is not critical".
"It seems to me that what is happening will not be the end of the current political regime. (...) Now we will just observe such bargaining between the protesters and the authorities. The authorities will make concessions, the protesters will say whether these concessions are enough for them or not," he explained.
[cue empire spokes creature. Who says nothing and thus confirms they are no longer connected with their embedded assets]
>…”Because the street protests are so lacking in focus, at least for now, it's difficult to see how they might end.
[Halp!, we might have stuffed up]
>…”But even if they fail to topple the government, it looks possible they might lead to deep transformation.
[Did we just get played by Putin?]
>…”What is not clear is what that might mean.
[halp]

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 3:41 utc | 155

Posted by: George W Oprisko | 32
>…”hasn't anyone noticed the sharp increase in miscarriages, premature menopause, and other female reproductive problems of late.
Yes. But you might also have noticed … discussion/ information transfer on such topics results in banning…. Here, there and everywhere.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 4:17 utc | 156

m @ 37; Gee, I can't imagine why anyone would suspect the good ole' U$A of interfering in the affairs of another nation.

History says otherwise m ;

https://williamblum.org/essays/read/overthrowing-other-peoples-governments-the-master-list

Posted by: vetinLA | Jan 7 2022 4:24 utc | 157

This all started several weeks ago with an alert from the US embassy --
>Dec 15, 2021 — Demonstration Alert: U.S. Mission Kazakhstan Saturday, December 16, 2021. Location: Nur-Sultan, Almaty, Shymkent, possibly other cities.
>Dec 16, 2021 — Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan calls for protests in Kazakhstan Dec. 16. Gatherings are possible in Almaty, Nur-Sultan, and Shymkent.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 7 2022 4:28 utc | 158

re: my 157 "Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan calls for protests . . ."
Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan is headed by Mukhtar Qabyluly Ablyazov. who has a colorful history including about ten years living in the UK. Ablyazov is alleged to have embezzled $6 billion from BTA Bank while serving as chairman. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 7 2022 4:49 utc | 159

does anybody happen to know what was in the vial that Colin Powell brandished at the UN, pretending it was weaponized anthrax? Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 6 2022 16:13 utc | 54

I read somewhere that is was ground up Tum Tums.

Posted by: Guerrero | Jan 7 2022 5:12 utc | 160

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 6 2022 21:27 utc | 111
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 23:53 utc | 135

Turkey's soft power influence in C. Asia began in the 80s with the US "green revolution" to turn C. Asia and Turkey towards Muslim "fundamentalism" and away from socialist tendencies (One of the reasons for the 1980 coup in Turkey. Gülen set up schools in C. Asia in the late 80s 90s with Turkish (Pres. Ozal)and US support.

The takfiri aspect is more recent, particularly with Erdoğan's interest in Syria and support of Al Qaeda (al Nusra, et al.) there. They have exported, along with the US, these militant terrorists wherever they deemed advantageous. No doubt the organized groups that seem to be operating there today in this effort may be cells set up by various Western actors. It is hard to know if they are being flushed out by the CSTO or just activated to take advantage of the potential opportunity by their Western overseers.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 7 2022 6:02 utc | 161

...And seemingly near yet unseen until then,
Its light more timorous than that of a tallow-dip
Set in the window of some watchman's hut,
A star glimmered over the road to Bethlehem.

Now it looked like a hayrick blazing
Off to one side from heaven and God;
Like the reflection of an arsonous fire,
Like a farmstead in flames or a threshing floor burning.

It reared in the sky like a fiery stack
Of straw, of hay,
In the midst of a Creation startled, astounded
By the new Star...

...The Magi stood in shadow (the byre seemed in twilight);
They spoke in whispers, groping for words.
Suddenly one, in deeper shadow, touched another
To move him aside from the manger, a little to the left.
The other turned:
Like a guest about to enter,
The Star of the Nativity was gazing upon the Maid.

[Boris Pasternak; The Poems of Yurii Zhivago]

This is just a fragment. The entire poem is very beautiful.

Happy Old Calendar Russian Christmas Eve!

Posted by: juliania | Jan 7 2022 6:07 utc | 162

Operation Jusan

Jusan

All this stuff makes me sad.

And 158 - Don Bacon - I heard Ablyazov is trying to walk back from some of his recent statements in support of the... violence happening in Kazakhstan. Buyer's remorse? And I don't doubt that Kazhageldin might not have a hand in all this, too.

Thank you to everyone here who is sharing their knowledge! It helps me immensely!

Posted by: lex talionis | Jan 7 2022 6:19 utc | 163

lex talionis 162

Looking at the names behind that EU, US, Atlantic council, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty- Repatriation looks a good way to move ISIS types from Syria back to central Asia.
Some sob stories from the losers but my sympathies are with the many people the organisation they were or are in killed.

https://central.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_ca/features/2021/02/10/feature-01

With support from the US government, Kazakhstan repatriated 12 citizens, including 7 children, from territories formerly held by the 'Islamic State'.

The west has not been keen to repatriate ISIS enthusiasts back to their own countries but are very keen to help repatriate ISIS types to the stans.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 7 2022 6:57 utc | 164

almost seems like the empire is reaching a tipping point as it flails about, with no clue what to do. things could get unstable very quickly. we certainly live in interesting times.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 7 2022 6:57 utc | 165

@152lucci
"I think the saker has made quite good observation of how color revolution could work (...)
1. Supplies and weapons to overpower the state security apparatus."

And exactly this is NOT the case. Color revolutions are sophisticated campaigns of social engineering. The weapons are always, always with the security apparatus that get`s toppled. In most cases color revolutions are non-violent. If they are violent the violence takes the form of provocations designed to trigger a violent reaction from the security apparatus which then can be used to advance a narrative. The success of a color revolution (if successful) is never due to weapons.

Now one might say that if this is no US instigated color revolution then it is at least an US supported (conventional) insurgency. To those who really believe that I recomend taking a look at a map. Kazakhstan is a central Asian land locked country surrounded by countries more or less hostile to the USA and friendly to Russia. How exactly are US weapons deliveries or spies and terrorists supposed to reach their Kazakh designation?


@135 Piotr Berman
"1. The numbers, organization and ability of the "protesters" were on a large scale, much larger than a tightly conspiratorial organization can achieve. Since they appeared to be militants with experienced leadership, they probably included alumni of Syrian jihad. Other suspects could be Gulenists, Pan-Turanists etc., in all cases it would be Turkish links, with AKP/Erdogan or not.
2. Such organization (...)"

And this, too, is wrong. No media outlet - including Russia media(!) - can give the name of the organisation (or the organisations) that are allegedly behind the violence. There is no organisation, leadership etc. If the insurgeny continues some kind of an insurgent organization will eventually be formed and given the fact that Kazakhstan is a muslim country it would inevitably be formed to a large degree by religious fanatics.

But right now the uprising is UNORGANIZED.

Posted by: m | Jan 7 2022 7:14 utc | 166

Maria Zakharova said: “some US representatives do not understand what is happening in Kazakhstan and pass it off as the official position of Washington.
The diplomat commented on the statements of the White House press secretary Jen Psaki that the United States has questions about the legality of the request of the authorities of Kazakhstan to use the forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in the country.
[= How dare you out smart, out play, oust us]

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 7 2022 7:18 utc | 167

Sorry if someone beat me to the punch on this one.
Dilyana Gaytandzhieva has done some investigative work on US biolabs overseas. Here is a story from 2020.

https://armswatch.com/pentagon-unit-a1266-studies-bioterrorism-agents-in-kazakhstan

Posted by: Tom | Jan 7 2022 7:49 utc | 168

O.K...so what have we got.

MI6/CIA/Mossad/Chevron/Exxon all milling around in Kazakhstan for 30 plus years fulfilling Mackinder-esque objectives.

Big protests kick off as LPG prices doubled overnight. (Who took that stupid decision in the middle of winter)
Locals can't drive anymore...instant rage.
The whole shaky edifice is threatened leading to CSTO troops coming in to back up local forces.
Suppression and liquidation of the bandit gangs and suddenly MI6/CIA/Mossad scuttling back behind embassy walls.
Spetsnatz and CSTO formations wipe out any armed bandit resistance, round up the rest. American bases and Chevron/Exxon assets at risk of seizure and nationalisation.
All done in time before the 10th January meetings and subsequent NATO talkfest.
I suspect the hand of one who plays both judo and chess and has people to meet next week.
Having wiped out a vipers nest, captured useful tradeable assets and putting western oil capital and bases at risk
I think negotiations will be interesting. Gerasimov's retirement has been postponed while all the chess pieces are being moved around.
Fascinating stuff
...and there's more to come next week....

Posted by: Emmanuel Goldstein | Jan 7 2022 7:57 utc | 169

This just in from Gilbert Doctorow: https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/01/07/how-far-can-diplomacy-go-awaiting-the-us-russian-talks-in-geneva-on-10-january/

There are snide remarks from our pampered expert community which have to be smashed by proofs that the Kremlin is not bluffing. So some kind of military action is needed.

I continue to believe it will be surgical strikes, probably against NATO installations being built on the Ukrainian coast. There is also the possibility that the Russians will announce the positioning on patrol just outside US territorial waters of their latest hypersonic cruise missiles and Poseidon deep sea nuclear drone, presenting an existential threat we have not seen since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

I agree, talk alone will not be enough to resolve the evil empire issue. Putting Ukraine and NATO in its place will also be a half-measure. Only a clear and present danger to the evil empire HQ will attract attention. Even that may not be sufficient, but it is necessary.

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 7 2022 9:48 utc | 170

Call me suspicious, where did this $10 Billion suddenly appear from? And why? A quid pro quo?

"One-Day $10 Billion Profit Erases Turkey Central Bank Losses"

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s central bank posted an extraordinary daily profit of around $10 billion on the final day of 2021, sparking questions on what caused this overnight boon that will trickle down to the nation’s Treasury.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/single-day-10-billion-profit-094442241.html?guccounter=1

Selling kebabs perhaps.

Posted by: Paul | Jan 7 2022 9:59 utc | 171

The UN Security Council is the venue to discuss the possibility of peacekeepers in Kazakhstan, not the CSTO.

This is why nobody is fooled anymore, now the rules do not apply, it is time to remenber the UN.

USofA, because of creeps like this one you are going down, down, down. Professor he says...

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1479179119774470146

Posted by: Paco | Jan 7 2022 10:22 utc | 172

Posted by: Paul | Jan 7 2022 9:59 utc | 170

According to your link, "there are lies, damn lies and accounting".

Turkish central bank sold its entire (?) remaining foreign reserves to another entity, and realized profit as accounted in Turkish lira. Because the reserves were purchased for a much lower price (in lira), accounting showed "paper profit".

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 7 2022 10:28 utc | 173

Latest news is that the most hard core terrorists in khazakstan speak Arabic which again suggest Turkish involvement also turkish media and troll factories are all up against the government and Russia. Never underestimate Erdogan’s pan-turkic ambitions.

Posted by: mikhas | Jan 7 2022 10:44 utc | 174

RIA NOVOSTI - Telegram
https://t.me/s/rian_ru

Best comprehensive overview, better than RT,Sputnik & Tass.

Also interesting in general
Twitter site of an Irish engineer in
Crimea
https://twitter.com/OnlyWongs
And
For some war/military stuff
https://mobile.twitter.com/ASBMilitary
Breaking Military News with focus on NATO, Russia (CSTO), Middle East (MENA) region & occasionally, Latin America.
OR
https://mobile.twitter.com/spriter99880
And Always
https://mobile.twitter.com/me_observer_

Posted by: MD | Jan 7 2022 11:18 utc | 175

Putin and CSO in Khazakstan under self appointed PK Operation resembles Mussolini leaving the Sociedad de Naciones.

Posted by: Roberto | Jan 7 2022 11:38 utc | 176


The RAND summary is an excellent distillation of how powers eventually get the war they are seeking to avoid. The US and Russia cannot go to war because it will be a world war, a conflict too dangerous to fight since the dawn of the nuclear age. This has been forgotten: the pattern of historic amnesia.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/


Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Jan 7 2022 11:40 utc | 177

Powerful speech by the President of Kazakhstan over at The Vineyard of the Saker. https://thesaker.is/sitrep-kazakhstan-president-tokayev-addressed-the-nation/

Interesting that one of the countries he thanks is Turkey.

It looks like the west really thought they could pull off a full coup. They even had The Kazak Guaido lined up https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-west-must-stand-up-russia-kazakhstan-dissident-former-banker-says-2022-01-07/

Posted by: ArthurDent | Jan 7 2022 12:05 utc | 178

Why does not every nation that senses it could be in the US's cross-hairs not pre-emptively do this with all the Soros, NED and their ilk, funded organizations? Just shut them down and kick them out.

Antoinetta III | Jan 6 2022 19:29 utc | 91:


Very few politicians / bureaucrats can withstand the lure of bribe money which are tied up in US controlled banks. You'd think they would be clever enough to maneuver around such constraints but, normalcy bias can settle in rather quickly for some, making them easy targets for blackmail. It becomes more complicated if key decision makers were pigeon-holed by a corrupted bureaucracy.

Posted by: Ian2 | Jan 7 2022 12:07 utc | 179

This comes through Colonel Cassad. The source in Russian was published on the Telegra.ph anonymous publishing tool. I do not know where this originally came from or who transcribed it.

Address of the Head of State Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to the people of Kazakhstan

...
It is critically important to understand why the state "slept through" the underground preparations for terrorist attacks by the militants' sleeping cells. Almaty alone was attacked by 20 thousand bandits.

Their actions showed the presence of a clear plan of attacks on military, administrative and social facilities in almost all areas, well-coordinated coordination of actions, high combat readiness and bestial cruelty.

In addition to the militants, there were specialists trained in ideological sabotage, skillfully using disinformation or "fakes" and capable of manipulating people's moods.

It seems that a single command post was involved in their training and leadership. The KNB and the General Prosecutor's Office began to deal with this.

Evidently the Kazakh security services do not follow the Nexta channel.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jan 7 2022 12:09 utc | 180

Posted by: Ian2 | Jan 7 2022 12:07 utc | 178

That and combined with western style democracy where election cycles and campaigning is the norm most officials doesn't care beyond just their terms and will be inclined to make the most of their terms to recoup the costs of their campaigns.

Posted by: Lucci | Jan 7 2022 12:25 utc | 181

On Russian Gas transit through Ukrain, strong words were used by Andrei Kopolev, the former Chairman of the Board of the National Joint Stock Company Naftogaz of Ukraine (from March 25, 2014 to April 28, 2021):

It is not difficult to predict the reaction of Russians to unauthorized selection (or, more simply, theft) of gas: stopping transit through the territory of Ukraine and the immediate termination of the current transit contract signed in December 2019. There is no sense in calculating the amount of financial damage in such a situation, since it will be much greater than the loss due to the difference in the price of buying and selling gas plus lost revenues from the transit of Russian gas until the end of 2024. This will most likely lead to the launch of Nord Stream 2 and Gazprom's refusal to use the Ukrainian route with the full tacit consent of its Western partners.

Winter is not as bad as what comes after
Forecast-2022. What will happen to the gas?

Posted by: António Ferrão | Jan 7 2022 12:30 utc | 182

blinken didn’t expect kazakhstan’s foreign minister on their jan. 6 call to agree to condemn “russian aggression” and affirm “ukraine’s territorial integrity” when it was inviting russian troops to come put down the uprising. by bringing up those impertinent issues blinken’s telegraphing: “america needs an anti-russia gov’t in kazakhstan, and you ain’t it. so, take a look around.”

Posted by: line islands | Jan 7 2022 13:13 utc | 183

@ Posted by: read_the_manual | Jan 6 2022 13:45 utc | 30

Your take makes sense of the situation -
Very likely this is Russia using the disturbance to justify cleaning up the mess. Foreign influences uses local issues to motivate disruption which the foreign actors take to another level as suits thier agenda. But Russia is turning thatscheme back on them by rapidly, efficiently smothering the conflagration. I was disappointed to think that Russia was simply reacting, but now suspect this was the plan. Sometimes its how it is played that counts.
Regarding the Rand report: One would expect the wording to be quite sterile - it is the language of technocrats, devoid of humanity. One has to read meaning into it.

Posted by: jared | Jan 7 2022 13:16 utc | 184

Posted by: jared | Jan 7 2022 13:16 utc | 182

The thugs that went on rampage weren't locals and some were identified to be Uyghurs, apparently people's that just want the LPG gas stay the same went home after getting exactly what they want.

Posted by: Lucci | Jan 7 2022 13:27 utc | 185

@ Posted by: read_the_manual | Jan 6 2022 13:45 utc | 30

Also your post makes another, point. Often posters will refrence some quote are writing or video or event and summarize as convenience for the reader, but in doind so will because of bias or intent will interperet to info in a way not literally support by the info referenced. It is a problem of hypertext, the internet and human nature. I trust b would not do the except with good intent (term "analysis" is used), because he wishes to maintain credibility. But still, one must remain object to extent possible - mainy other purveyors of analysis use thier credibility liberally.
Another of my peeves is the use of images with analysis that distorts the reality - so your eyes are seeing it, but someone is telling you what you are seeing (how could they lie when your eyes are seeing it) or maybe they dont have to tell you, it is implied.
Wisdom is gained slowly and requires humility, I think.

Posted by: jared | Jan 7 2022 13:35 utc | 186

“ It is the USA that will return to the dark ages, balkanized into gated communities and run by woke corporatists presiding over vast lawless territories filled with homeless nomads and the dispossessed middle classes clutching AR-15s.”

isn’t that what it already is?

Posted by: line islands | Jan 7 2022 14:01 utc | 187

@ Posted by: Lucci | Jan 7 2022 13:27 utc | 183

Yes, riots are often taken control of or completely artificial. Certainly to local residents dont benefit from this.

But similarly the recent riots in US were not by local actors - largely agitated by "outside" such as state or foreign influence.

Posted by: jared | Jan 7 2022 14:04 utc | 188

Craig Murray seems to think that the situation in Kazakhstan is not a colour revolution. Hmmm, I understand he has some knowledge of Kazakhstan, but he seems to not present any more evidence for his argument than...well...not much:


So where do the CIA come in? They don’t. They were trying to groom a banned opposition leader (whose name I recall as Kozlov, but that may be wrong) but then discovered he was not willing to be their puppet, and the scheme was abandoned under Trump. The CIA were as taken aback by events as everybody else, and they don’t have any significant resources on the ground, or a Juan Gaido to jet in.

CIA were taken aback by events as everybody else - is that it? Well, I continue to go along with the duck theory (looks, quacks and walk) for want of more facts.

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 7 2022 14:28 utc | 189

Craig Murray seems to think that the situation in Kazakhstan is not a colour revolution.

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 7 2022 14:28 utc | 187

===

Craig is not to old to learn new things:

But I recommend a spell in Saughton jail to any other middle class person who, like myself, was foolish enough to believe that Scotland is a socially progressive country.

viz. https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/01/your-man-in-saughton-jail-part-1

Murray's claim that Kazakhstan is a victim of circumstance may become better informed as his fog of innocence clears and facts on the ground become apparent to him.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 7 2022 14:42 utc | 190

“LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The West must pull Kazakhstan out of Moscow's orbit or Russian President Vladimir Putin will draw the Central Asian state into ‘a structure like the Soviet Union’, a former minister who is now a Kazakh opposition leader told Reuters.”

giving away the game a bit there, eh?

Posted by: line islands | Jan 7 2022 14:45 utc | 191

@line islands 192

Yes, quacking like a colour revolution duck called Guaido. Interestingly the guys who said this is described as:

Mukhtar Ablyazov, a former banker and government minister who is leader of an opposition movement called Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, said the West needed to enter the fray.

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 7 2022 15:48 utc | 192

. . .re: opposititon chief Ablyazov . .Reuters

The West must pull Kazakhstan out of Moscow's orbit or Russian President Vladimir Putin will draw the Central Asian state into "a structure like the Soviet Union", a former minister who is now a Kazakh opposition leader told Reuters.

Sentenced in absentia in Kazakhstan for fraud, embezzlement and for organising a murder, Ablyazov, 58, lives in France where he has been granted refugee status. He has dismissed the charges against him in Russia and Kazakhstan as politically motivated.. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 7 2022 16:10 utc | 193

re: my 194
Ablyazov's "Putin will draw the Central Asian state into a structure like the Soviet Union" is a common charge of the western MSM and its 'experts,' that Putin is an " irredentist." (nothing to do with dental health)
. . .from the web
Russian irredentism refers to irredentist claims to parts of the former Russian Empire or the Soviet Union made during the 21st century for the Russian Federation. It seeks to unify all Russians outside of Russian borders inside a unified state. The annexation of Crimea is an example of an irredentist claim.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 7 2022 16:18 utc | 194

@182 António Ferrão -

Clearly the author is arguing for an emergency loan from the IMF etc. One thing to note is that he also expects extreme price volatility.

Curtailing industrial use of natgas (as EU has done, only more) would also be a sensible solution in the short term, given the situation Ukraine has gotten itself into. But this will deepen the financial hole in a different way (e.g. shortage of basic materials later), and in addition will raise political tensions because the oligarchs will be losing money.

Meanwhile the EU natgas futures have bottomed. Here's Dutch TTF natgas JUN22 on ICE (scroll down, units: €/TWh ... divide by approximately 3 for $/MMBtu)

Posted by: ptb | Jan 7 2022 17:09 utc | 195

Don Bacon @195--

If you read my earlier comment, what the future holds via the merger of EAEU and SCO/BRI will be a loose confederation far more powerful than the former USSR/Soviet Union--especially in the realm of post-hydrocarbon energy generation which is absolutely the key asset, IMO. And BigLie Media will never admit the germ of the idea for EAEU and BRI came from Nazarbaev and Kazakhstan, although Putin recently again acknowledged that truth in his recent greetings to him when they met in Moscow last week. As Pepe Escobar catalogs every so often, there are a plethora of economic development organizations that connect all of Eurasia, although we often only mention the big three--EAEU, SCO, BRI--with the fourth--CSTO--now being introduced to the world. But perhaps the biggest irritant to the Outlaw US Empire is its losing its grip on India and Brazil.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 7 2022 17:18 utc | 196

Craig Murray is an odd duck, with aspirations like Crimea being absorbed into an independent republic of Tatarstan. I suspect he's as inane on some topics as he is brilliant on others, so it's a flip of a coin to trust him on any topic on which one isn't already sufficiently informed to draw certain independent conclusions.

To add to the actual topic of the discussion, it appears US is also heavily invested in businesses in Kazakhstan, to the tune of $54 billion out of $370 billion foreign investments total. Both sums can be roughly divided over a 30 year period.

I believe one has to take into account the potential damage to business interests that may occur as a result of fomenting unrest and the effect it would have on a risk-reward calculation of any state planning such an operation. In that context, it could be viewed as a strike against the CIA taking the lead on this operation, unless these potential losses were determined to be manageable, desirable or unless there were indications that such losses could be avoided. According to Wikipedia, referencing a now dead Times article, the UK is the third largest foreign investor in Kazakhstan. Again, that could be viewed as a strike against MI6 being primarily responsible for instigating the unrest.

While I certainly would not claim that an analysis of fdi into Kazakhstan serves as an illustration to perfectly eliminate potential primary instigators, it could still be useful in understanding whose financial interests would be most severely trampled in the case of Kazakh unrest leading to a Syrian scenario and which actors would be most keen to avoid gambling on such a scenario.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jan 7 2022 17:21 utc | 197

here’s ablyazov, self-appointed leader of kazakh uprising, working in 2017 to overthrow the kazakh government w the head of a private intelligence agency, arcanum (latin for secret), who’s self-declared ex-cia.

but yes, an organic uprising.

https://www.ft.com/content/1411b1a0-a310-11e7-9e4f-7f5e6a7c98a2

Posted by: line islands | Jan 7 2022 17:40 utc | 198

Below is a quote from a Reuters piece about beating the drums of war by the soldiers....of Sweden, in this case....directly attacking the NATO expansion limits that Russia wants and has negotiated with dishonorable folks in the past.

"
STOCKHOLM, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Sweden's security strategy would be entirely undermined if NATO agreed to refrain from expanding further and curb some of its activity in Europe, as Russia has demanded, Sweden's top military commander said.
"

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 7 2022 18:54 utc | 199

@ Skiffer 198
You raise a vital point, that instability somewhere impacts any commercial interests in that place. So contributing to instability is a stupid strategy.
Nevertheless, the US/UK /FR record stands. It's a crystal clear record, that creating instability has been the standard go-to policy of the western neoliberals. It is never a goal to get along with other nations, it is always a goal to attack them one way or another, to bend them in the desired way.
I'm reminded of when the unqualified Hillary was SecState. Seldom a day went by when she didn't bad-mouth some nation. The kinetic anti-Syria combat was number one on her list, along with Libya and other places.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 7 2022 19:03 utc | 200

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