Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 06, 2022

The U.S. Directed Rebellion in Kazakhstan May Well Strengthen Russia

In early 2019 the Pentagon financed think tank RAND published an extensive plan for soft attacks on Russia.

Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground.

The 350 pages long report recommended certain steps to be taken by the U.S. to contain Russia. As its summary says:

Recognizing that some level of competition with Russia is inevitable, this report seeks to define areas where the United States can do so to its advantage. We examine a range of nonviolent measures that could exploit Russia’s actual vulnerabilities and anxieties as a way of stressing Russia’s military and economy and the regime’s political standing at home and abroad. The steps we examine would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose, although they might contribute to both. Rather, these steps are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, leading Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, and causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence.

RAND lists economical, geopolitical, ideological and informational as well as military measures the U.S. should take to weaken Russia.

Since the report came out the first four of the six 'geopolitical measures' listed in chapter 4 of the report have been implemented.


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The U.S. delivered lethal weapons to Ukraine, it increased its support for 'rebels' in Syria. It attempted a regime change in Belarus and instigated a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The U.S. is now implementing measure 5 which aims to 'reduce Russia's influence in Central Asia'.

Kazakhstan, Russia's southern neighbor, was part of the Soviet Union. It is a mineral rich, landlocked country three times the size of Texas but with less than 20 million inhabitants. A significant part of its people are Russians and the Russian language is in common use. The country is an important link in the strategic Belt and Road Initiative between China and Europe.


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Since the demise of the Soviet Union the country has been ruled by oligarchic family clans - foremost the Nazarbayevs. As the CIA Worldfactbook notes:

Executive branch

chief of state: President Kasym-Zhomart TOKAYEV (since 20 March 2019); note - Nursultan NAZARBAYEV, who was president since 24 April 1990 (and in power since 22 June 1989 under the Soviet period), resigned on 20 March 2019; NAZARBAYEV retained the title and powers of "First President"; TOKAYEV completed NAZARBAYEV's term, which was shortened due to the early election of 9 June 2019, and then continued as president following his election victory

Over the last decade there have been several uprisings (2011, 2016 and 2019) in Kazakhstan. These were mostly caused by uneven distribution of income from its minerals including oil and gas. The oligarchs in the capital of Astana / Nur-Sultan live well while the provinces which produce the minerals, like Mangistauskaya in the south-west, have seen few developments.

Recently the price for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used by many cars in Kazakhstan, went up after the government had liberalized the market. This caused another round of country wide protests:

The string of rallies that has torn through Kazakhstan since January 2 began in the western oil town of Zhanaozen, ostensibly triggered by anger over a sudden spike in the price of car fuel. Similar impromptu gatherings then quickly spread to nearby villages in the Mangystau region and then in multiple other locations in the west, in cities like Aktau, Atyrau and Aktobe. By January 4, people had come out onto the streets in numbers in locations many hundreds of kilometers away, in the southern towns of Taraz, Shymkent and Kyzyl-Orda, in the north, in the cities of Uralsk and Kostanai, as well as in Almaty and Nur-Sultan, the capital, among other places.

Few saw scenes as fiery as those in Almaty, though.

Clashes in Almaty continued throughout the night into January 5. After being dispersed by police from Republic Square, part of the crowd headed around two kilometers downhill, to another historic location in the city, Astana Square, where the seat of government used to be located in Soviet times.

While there is little reliable way to gauge the scale of the demonstrations, a combination of on-the-ground reporting and video footage appears to indicate that these protests may be even larger than those that brought the country to a near-standstill in 2016.

While the grievances that sparked the first rallies in Zhanaozen were to do with fuel prices, the sometimes rowdy demonstrations that have followed appear to be of a more general nature. Chants of “shal ket!” (“old man go!”), usually understood as a reference to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who continues to wield significant sway from behind the scenes, have been heard at many of the demos.

The protests escalated soon with gangs of armed protesters taking control of government buildings and setting them on fire. There were also attempts to take control of radio and TV stations as well as the airport. Police, which generally did little to intervene, were gunned down.

The actions in Almaty, the country's largest city and former capital, are certainly not spontaneous reactions by a crowd of poor laborers but controlled actions by well trained groups of armed 'rebels'.

Peter Leonard @Peter__Leonard - 9:18 UTC · 6 Jan 2022
Kazakhstan: Very important and intriguing detail with strong shades of Kyrgyzstan 2020. Peaceful people initiate rallies, but shady and violent individuals turn up to sow trouble, and it is never remotely clear who they are or where they came from /1 https://t.co/qYSlUUrMVx

From one account I heard, a similar dynamic played out in Almaty on Wednesday morning. A relatively small and mild gathering formed on Republic Square, opposite city hall. All of a sudden hundreds of extremely aggressive men turned up, threatening all and sundry #Kazakhstan /2

They threatened and attacked journalists standing nearby, ordering anybody who took photographs to delete the images. It was clearly this cohort that was responsible for much of the destruction. And it is a mystery (to me) who they were /3

We have seen similar formations during the U.S. instigated uprisings in Libya, Syria, Ukraine and Belarus.

NEXTA, the U.S. financed regime change media network in Poland which last year directed the failed color revolution attempt in Belarus, announced the U.S. demands:

NEXTA @nexta_tv - 13:52 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
Demands of the Protesters in #Kazakhstan
1. Immediate release of all political prisoners
2. Full resignation of president and government
3. Political reforms:
Creation of a Provisional Government of reputable and public citizens. Withdrawal from all alliances with #Russia

A more reliable source confirms these:

Maxim A. Suchkov @m_suchkov - 14:43 UST · Jan 5, 2022
The list of demands of protestors in #Kazakhstan that's been circulating is interesting, to put it mildly.
While most demands focus on bolstering social & economic support & countering corruption points #1, 7, 10, 13, 16 expose the roots of protest & who's driving them

#1 demands that #Kazakhstan should leave Eurasian Economic union.
#7 demands legalization of polygamy "for certain groups of the population" & prohibition on marriage with foreigners
#10 demands independence for Mangystau region &^that revenues of oil companies remain in Mangystau

Caveat: this list been circulating a lot on telegram - could be fake or not representative of what protestors want, thou it appears protestors are a diverse group that includes genuinely disgruntled people, political manipulators, "prof revolutionaries" (that were in UKR & BEL), etc

The government of Kazakhstan has since lowered the LPG prices. On January 5 President Tokayev relived the 'First President' Nazarbayev of his position as chairman of the Security Council and promised to act tough on armed protesters.

Kazakhstan is part of the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). On the morning of January 5 Tokayev had a phone call with the presidents of Russia and Belarus. He has mobilized airborne units of the armed forces of Kazakhstan. On the evening of January 5 he requested support from the CSTO against the 'foreign directed terrorists' which are fighting the security forces.

Russia, Belarus and other CSTO members have dedicated quick reaction forces reserved for such interventions. These will now be mobilized to regain government control in Kazakhstan. Russian CSTO forces are currently on their way to Kazakhstan. Belorussian and Armenian troops will follow soon.

They are in for some tough time:

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ ❄ @CalibreObscura - 19:50 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
#Kazakhstan: Captured arms from the National Security Committee (equivalent to Russian FSB) building by protestors in #Almaty: At least 2 PG-7V projectiles, possible boxed Glock pistol & (possibly) more in numerous scattered crates, various kit.
Anti-Armour capability in 48hrs...
Image

During the last decades the U.S. and its allies had been relatively quiet about the dictatorial leadership in Kazakhstan.

Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled - 14:18 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
NATO's cheerleading corner of FSU "experts" already working hard to spin Kazakhstan uprisings as somehow Putin's fault or indictment of Putin—but note how quiet our media-NGO complex has been the past 20 years re: the regime's human rights abuses, corruption & "authoritarianism"

Chevron is the largest oil producer in Kazakhstan and the former British prime minister Tony Blair has previously been giving advice to then President Nursultan Nazarbayev on how to avoid an uproar over dead protesters:

In a letter to Nursultan Nazarbayev, obtained by The Telegraph, Mr Blair told the Kazakh president that the deaths of 14 protesters “tragic though they were, should not obscure the enormous progress” his country had made.

Mr Blair, who is paid millions of pounds a year to give advice to Mr Nazarbayev, goes on to suggest key passages to insert into a speech the president was giving at the University of Cambridge, to defend the action.

Times however are different now as Kazakhstan has continued to strengthen its relations with Russia and China.

The CIA offshoot National Endowment for Democracy is financing some 20 'civil society' regime change programs in Kazakhstan with about $50,000 per annum each. The involved organizations  currently seem to be mostly quiet but are a sure sign that the U.S. is playing a role behind the scenes. On December 16 details of upcoming demonstrations were announced by the U.S. embassy in Kazakhstan.


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It is likely that this pre-planned Central Asia part of the 'Extending Russia' program has been implemented prematurely as a response to Russia's recent ultimatum with regards to Ukraine and NATO. Its sole purpose is to unbalance the Russian leadership in Moscow by diverting its attention towards the south.

I however believe that Russia has prepared for such eventualities. They will not affect its plans and demands.

What is difficult to discern though is what is really happening behind the scenes in Astana/Nur-Sultan. Has Tokayev, who was previously seen as a mere puppet of Nazarbayev, really replaced him? His control of the security forces is somewhat in doubt:

Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 19:18 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
Tokayev dismissed the head of his security guard Saken Isabekov. Also, the President dismissed the Deputy Head of the State Security Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan from his post

But the outcome of the whole game is quite predictable:

Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled - 14:31 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
The grim likelihood, given all the various "revolutions" in the FSU the past 20 years, is that Kazakhstan's street protests [will be] instrumentalized by a powerful clan to replace the ruling oligarchy with a new oligarchy.

The CSTO troops which are now landing in Almaty will take a few days to end the rebellion. The outcome is not in doubt.

Moscow, not Washington DC, will have a big say in who will come out at the top.

It is quite possible that the results of the whole affair will, like the failed U.S. regime change attempts in Belarus, not weaken but strengthen Russia:

Dmitri Trenin @DmitriTrenin - 7:57 UTC · 6 Jan 2022
#Kazakhstan is another test, after #Belarus, of RUS ability to help stabilize its formal allies w/o alienating their populations. As 1st action by CSTO since founding in 1999, it is major test for bloc. Lots of potential pitfalls around, but can be big boon if Moscow succeeds.

Posted by b on January 6, 2022 at 9:19 UTC | Permalink

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More likely a Russian false flag in order to consolidate Central Asia in the wake of the Taliban takeover.

CSTO has been activated and will result in Russian boots on the ground. This will also be a good way to quell anti ethnic Russian sentiments amongst indigenous Kazakhs

Posted by: SPAMRAAM | Jan 6 2022 9:42 utc | 1

We examine a range of nonviolent measures that could exploit Russia’s actual vulnerabilities and anxieties as a way of stressing Russia’s military and economy and the regime’s political standing at home and abroad. The steps we examine would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose, although they might contribute to both. Rather, these steps are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, leading Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, and causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence.

I always wonder at these strategic plans publicly published by the Empire stink tanks. On the face of it, they make clear what strategies the Empire is going to take, thereby allowing Russia to plan tactics to counter the attacks. At the very least it exposes the way of thinking of the aggressors (in case there should be any doubt about it). To what extent can these published plans in fact be misinformation designed to misdirect? Or to what extent are so many contradictory strategic "plans" put out by different stink tanks that they lose some of their informational value? Why don't they hold their cards more closely to the chests? Would that cause too many foot-soldiers to lose their step? Is the idea supposed to be that the published plans are sufficiently non-specific that Russia should be put off balance (ha ha! hopeful!) and not be able to make good use of the information? Is it in part just a reflection of a top-heavy, profoundly incompetent (primarily through exceptionalism and dependence on corruption), and over-sized political structure?

Posted by: BM | Jan 6 2022 10:06 utc | 2

It is amusing how these "thinkers" ideas about how to undermine Russia or China tend to look a lot getting them to do what Bush-Cheney did, i.e. over-reach and over-spend and engage in little stupid wars for profit, revenge, and to stroke their little egos.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 6 2022 10:07 utc | 3

So the response from the US to the Russian non-ultimatum ultimatum is to speed up their plans already in place to destabilise Russia? It’s clear that they’re not taking Russia’s red lines seriously and as Putin the other day stated there is nowhere left for Russia to retreat to.

Russia’s back is against the wall and their only option is to either cave in or go to war because the US is not taking no for an answer.

Posted by: Down South | Jan 6 2022 10:17 utc | 4

"We'll give them their own Vietnam, Afghanistan, whatever the latest one was." Always fighting the last war, and always losing it again, at great cost, again.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 6 2022 10:36 utc | 5

And Pepe has a piece up about it:

Steppe on fire: Kazakhstan’s color revolution

Kazakhstan was rocked into chaos virtually overnight, in principle, because of the doubling of prices for liquefied gas, which reached the (Russian) equivalent of 20 rubles per liter (compare it to an average of 30 rubles in Russia itself).

That was the spark for nationwide protests spanning every latitude from top business hub Almaty to the Caspian Sea ports of Aktau and Atyrau and even the capital Nur-Sultan, formerly Astana.

The central government was forced to roll back the gas price to the equivalent of 8 rubles a liter. Yet that only prompted the next stage of the protests, demanding lower food prices, an end of the vaccination campaign, a lower retirement age for mothers with many children and – last but not least – regime change, complete with its own slogan: Shal, ket! (“Down with the old man.”)

The “old man” is none other than national leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, 81, who even as he stepped down from the presidency after 29 years in power, in 2019, for all practical purposes remains the Kazakh gray eminence as head of the Security Council and the arbiter of domestic and foreign policy.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 6 2022 10:50 utc | 6

Link:

Steppe on fire: Kazakhstan’s color revolution

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 6 2022 10:52 utc | 7

Escobar and Martyanov have also put up pieces on Kazak situation. Reading the three gives a good picture. Martyanov gives the end result of US shenanigans. A report I read elsewhere said a number of armed protesters were eliminated.. Those suckers who work for US "interests" become pawns who are simply eliminated from the game. I like that term. It is also a bit of a contradiction as those pawns a simply ordinary people who have been suckered in to sacrifice their lives to further US "interests".

There is a fungus that takes control of a flies brain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2Jw5ib-s_I US reminds me of that fungus.

Escobar https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/01/06/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstan-color-revolution/
Martyanov https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/01/so-kremlin-confirms.html

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 10:57 utc | 8

Good piece but i wouldn't underestimate that Erdogan and his pan-turkish ambitions is also involved in this.

Posted by: mikhas | Jan 6 2022 10:59 utc | 9

The MI6 cut-out Guardian has already got Shaun Walker, a mini-me Luke Harding on the case, claiming Russia has sent "peacekeeping" (his quote marks!) to quell the rebellion. A pretty obvious sign this has been pre-planned.

Posted by: JohnA | Jan 6 2022 11:04 utc | 10

Thanks for that reveal b.

What else does the rest of that RAND menu offer towards defeating and winning Russia and the World Island?

Better get a bucket! (Sorry a joke many won’t get).

If the deranged proxy idiots under Stoltenberg have been bought off enough to lead their citizens into attacking their Russian neighbours - that will end only in one way.

A direct attack on Russians will enable the Chinese to come to their aid as per their mutual aid treaties and exercises.

Is that the goal of the Bankers? Is that the only way they can get enough boots on the ground recruitment now from the western citizens? If so it’s is a desperate and losing move.

Time is nigh for the new NWO to start imposing Sanctions and Criminal Charges of their own instead of the flunkies of the State Department string pullers, through the UN, upon these who have been perpetrating the mayhem of the last 30 years since the ‘collapse’ of the Soviets. Name them and their assets. Let them know that they can’t hide. Their loot will not be passed to their children. That their Superyachts, secret islands, hideaway estates and bunkers are all known. Let all their contacts know that they risk becoming collateral damage If they choose to lick the arses of these criminals. Because you don’t need to arrest them to punish them. Not when you can glide a hypersonic kinetic missile over the horizon right through their yacht, submarine and undersea base with a single shot.

Don’t get me wrong, I was not unhappy to see the end of the ussr and am glad it is no longer here.
There’s now a bigger and better Union - the SCO.
I wish we were members and the BRI - it seems the only way we would get super trains in the U.K. unlike the useless any never to be completed HS2 crap we have been promised with massive useless new build and slow trains.

Posted by: D.G. | Jan 6 2022 11:05 utc | 11

>>>>> by: Bemildred | Jan 6 2022 10:07 utc | 3

It's American Exceptionalism and American Projectionism working against Washington.

Washington believes in American Exceptionalism so thinks that the way it does things is the only right way to do those things, then American Projectionism kicks in and guides Washington to project the way it does thing on to others. Washington can't cope when its opponents do something a way it's not even considered and it runs around in circles all flustered while the opponent is so far within John Boyd's famous OODA loop that Washington with all its advantages loses.

BTW, what has become of John Boyd's OODA loop in Washington. At one time, you couldn't move for the paper generated by articles mentioning it. Now there is nothing. But it's still a useful tool to be used against Washington to unbalance a top-heavy regime like Washington. Has Washington given up on it because it's too slow to apply it successfully?

Meanwhile Washington seems to continue with the "My enemy's enemy is my friend" BS which has been brought back from the dead as a zombie idea.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 6 2022 11:11 utc | 12

Repost from "Slow news day" earlier today, but relevant here. b has a better overall view.
****

One interesting theory appearing about Kazakhstan and the events there; That it is these opening moves that have allowed the Nazabarev Clan to be evicted in favour of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. That this is Judo taken to political extremes. (Guess by whom). Opposed to a more Syria style than Maidan for the regime changers..

Ie. The Us'ists start by a violent "revolution" relying on imported pre-disposed caches of arms, the Nazabarev clan flee, leaving a Pro-Russia Gov. in charge. (Tokayev) Using that as an argument to call on the CSTO for immediate action. (Which will be limited to protecting the various useful points and industries, while leaving the direct control over rioters to the local forces.)

Note that the first Special forces have already arrived (from Belarus ).

ie. The US'ists are exposed, the Gov. has been changed, "all" that is left is to bring calm back. Which will depend on the original rioters not being able to increase their numbers of active participants through the media and self-victimisation. Cut off "social media and the TV", -Isolate and eliminate, is still possible.

*****
Ps. I have written away for the three day course on "How to be a Kazakhstan expert. (Contains a map, spellinhg hints and other useful information for debutants)", but they have become very hard to find because of sudden demand from the MSM.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 9:48 utc | 208

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 11:16 utc | 13

Apparently the "rioters" are being quite brutal. Policeman beheaded, surrounding 2 "intensive care" hospitals. etc. This is not planned as a "regime change" but to forment a "civil war", as the majority of the population (as anywhere else,) will only want peace and quiet to go about their own business. The Pro-"Nazi" element used in Ukraine is probaly not so strong in Khazakstan.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 11:24 utc | 14

It's American Exceptionalism and American Projectionism working against Washington.

etc.

---

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 6 2022 11:11 utc | 12

Yep, very familiar with all that at one time. DC/NatSec types love their cliches, fads, acronyms, and buzz-words. Has much to do with the amorphous incompetence that permeates it all. A very congenial environment for mediocrity to climb in, but not able to think or act coherently. Psaki is perfect. OODA and Petraeus SF lilypads and what new idea today. And they got totally in bed with the West Coast Internet and IT titans. Lots of Private-Public partnerships. And the one and only real sin is to make a fuss or not go along, any disruption of the narrative.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 6 2022 11:25 utc | 15

@SPAMRAAM 1

Think again.
We are already seeing signature atrocities of the evil empire's proxies: beheadings of police.

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 6 2022 11:28 utc | 16

@1 | Jan 6 2022 9:42 utc

Of course, there is no way to know the truth of it -- but five interesting "cui bono?" points stick out:

1. A wholesale gas/energy hike is possibly a broad general "go!" signal which may have about 3-4 stakeholder groups deriving some possible strategic benefits. Like a good joke, it's all in the timing.

2. An easy-enough scenario to handle from the Russian side -- e.g., as per Belarus. Seems inconvenient for Russia in pre-Nato stance and holiday mode, but ...

3. The net outcome is one less rotating plate on a stick to juggle and an 'action' start demonstration to possibly broader mobilization without it being on the Ukraine borderlands.

4. And now with a collective CSTO 'peace keeping' response triggered facing the ISIS organ-eater chaos running lose in Afghanistan borderlands there is definitely a whole lot less unknown unknows left on the chessboard ready for the surgical strikes on a retreating Nato in the western vector.

5. The emerging China-Russia belt-n-road corridor just reinforced and removed from the chessboard.

Of course the idiot-USA (and EU poodle) factor playing pre-school level checkers cannot be dismissed but these five points alone would suggest that either way, Putin must be smiling wryly at these recent developments. They have been mounting and dismounting now for several years -- it now looks like it is time to ride.

All major players seem to have agreed (at least for public consumption) that it won't go nuclear. But that aside, looks like the gloves are off for the next round. I suspect the USA will be prepared to fight to the last rainbow panty woke European and few will miss the Ukie-nazi gangs. The key to outcomes will be the US domestic response leading into the 2022 mid-terms. "Let's go Brandon?" ... but where?

Putin knows where Shoigu is going, but I very much doubt that Biden (or Trump 2.0) know where their Pentagon are going. That war criminal, Tony Blair getting a British Monarchy gong is another supporting signal echoing the Bush-Blair rampage across the Middle-east. The European's must be praying for a short winter, or they are going to be spending a lot of cold-hard gold bullion to pay for Russian heating gas that suddenly can't transit damaged infrastructure in Ukraine.

Sad state of affairs but buy popcorn.

Posted by: imo | Jan 6 2022 11:29 utc | 17

#14:
"Policeman beheaded", definitely the work of turkish proxies. Seems like Erdogan needed some distraction too so he's definitely in on it but this might be a little too much to sort out with "his friend putin"..

Posted by: mikhas | Jan 6 2022 11:33 utc | 18

Public protest sparked by rising fuel prices with pre-planned NED support, with an attempt to launch regime change? Same CIA playbook as the failed effort in Cuba recently? And Venezuela, come to think of it. If it fails in Kazakh will there be economic sanctions as the Empire persecutes the innocent to try to salvage some self-respect?

Posted by: Loftwork | Jan 6 2022 11:53 utc | 19

I'm surprised I have not heard the Neocons jump on this freedom moment yet. Only the Economist has chimed in ... "Kazakhstan's President Vows to Cling On"

Perhaps I'm not following the cool Neocons.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jan 6 2022 12:10 utc | 20

Beheadings - what happened to the 600 ISIS fighters captured by SDF/USA after destruction of Raqqa?

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 6 2022 12:52 utc | 21

Thanks for this article its very informative as are several of your links, watching RT news, they said that several demos broke out across Kazakhstan simultaneously, and thought that to be very unusual, now after reading your excellent article we know why. also you can se footage on RT news of the so called "demonstrators" surrounding soldiers/police officers and taking their weapons again very unusual for demonstrators out rallying for lower fuel costs.

You can also see the "demonstrators" charge towards the country's parliament building on RT news, and what looks like flashbangs go off at the entrance, which temporarily repelled the crowds.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2022 12:55 utc | 22

I'm starting to think that maybe this was a mouse-trap for Western assets. The initial non-committal attitude by Russia and the general sense of Kazakh government ineptitude signalling a green light, to be quickly replaced by an information blockade and CSTO mop-up like putting up a brick wall in front of the already accelerating vehicle. Maybe the Russians expect to bag some juicy targets that they can include in the upcoming negotiations?

Posted by: Skiffer | Jan 6 2022 12:57 utc | 23

Is there an US airbase in Kazakhstan?

Posted by: R | Jan 6 2022 13:13 utc | 24

#: They are split up in two groups, one in US occupied al-Tanf in Syria and the other in a small US protected isis enclave on the border between Syria and Iraq.

Posted by: mikhas | Jan 6 2022 13:16 utc | 25

The Pro-"Nazi" element used in Ukraine is probaly not so strong in Khazakstan.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 11:24 utc | 14

About a year ago I read about a pogrom in several villages of Dungans (Chinese Muslim who immigrated some generations ago), and comments that fascistic sentiments, general xenophobia and "all rights to Kazakhs") are lamentably widespread and tolerated.

One can compare with neighboring Kyrgyzstan. (Interesting, Tsarist Russian used word "Kyrgyz" for Kazakhs and "Kara(black)kyrgyz" for Kyrgyz.). There were serious massacres of Uzbeks during each of "revolutions". Thus the start is like in France, fuel price protests, and then it developes into a "revolution", but Central Asians behave differently from relatively placid French.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 13:23 utc | 26

As an aside,

Worth mentioning is the wide support that these "protests" have received from Ukraine, everything from national television to supposedly independent bloggers, youtube channels and "private commentators." The response has been absurdly positive and triumphalist. Although I would be at fault to dismiss the pervasive influence of Maidan-infused psychosis on segments of the Ukrainian populous, which may be the cause of a Pavlovian response in the face of burning buildings and beheaded police officers, the other possibility would suggest some level of involvement in the Kazakh unrest.

What's the consensus among barflies? Does Ukraine have enough clout to independently foment a color revolution in Kazakhstan? At first glance, my initial instinct is to dismiss such a possibility on the basis that Ukraine is not an independent player and does not have much in the way of resources at its disposal. However, we do know that Ukraine has conducted unsanctioned spec-ops in the past, for which it has been rebuked by its sovereign, specifically the Kerch strait provocation and the Wagner honey-pot -- clear indication that Ukraine can act on its own or, at the very least, at the direction of groups not directly accountable to the US government. While these operations were low resource intensity ones, and failed spectacularly, the cost of a color revolution in Kazakhstan isn't readily apparent to me. I am also not certain what the extent of essential assets on the ground in Kazakhstan might be, nor would I exclude leasing or lending of foreign assets for a Ukrainian operation. As such, I would not entirely exclude the possibility of Ukraine carrying the flag on this operation, although my inherent bias nudges me more towards other states involving the Ukraine and using it as a scapegoat in case of failure.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jan 6 2022 13:25 utc | 27

Posted by: mikhas | Jan 6 2022 11:33 utc | 18

I know a Kazakh who graduated from a Gulen-related high school and was weary before returning home after PhD in USA, because some school mates were arrested, there was a hunt for putative Gulenists. "Turkish influence", if present, may be unrelated to Erdogan.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 13:29 utc | 28

@23 Skiffer | Jan 6 2022 12:57 utc

Quite plausible, imo.
Demining a minefield might be a good analogy.
The Russians would have this, and several other scenarios, worked out to the nth degree. Lance the boil; apply the medication; stabalise the situation; then enter discussions with the US/Nato on the backfoot having to argue they were not involved etc. By the time the 'polite men in green' have finished stabilising the regional stiuation the USA will have effectively been declawed and neutralised in Central Asia. Where are they going to run to? Russia to the north? China to the east? Afghanistan or Iran to the south? One rather large cauldron if they are not careful. Perhaps 'father Xi' had a double meaning in "belt" for errant American children playing in other people's backyards.

Posted by: imo | Jan 6 2022 13:29 utc | 29

I read that section from the RAND report and unlike the pull quote produced by b, it is pretty tame stuff. In fact, that section is almost entirely economical in focus and includes hand wringing about inadvertently helping China's hand in central Asia if Russia is "extended". Thankfully for b, most "regulars" (yes, scary quotes )) have not bothered to actually read the paper.

I think the comment earlier mentioning Afghanistan and Taliban is closest to the mark, and this smells like an operation by Russia to firm up its "back" in preparation for contingencies in its Western front.

Posted by: read_the_manual | Jan 6 2022 13:45 utc | 30

RE: Posted by b on January 6, 2022 at 9:19 UTC | Permalink
“The U.S. Directed Rebellion...”
Notions of sole/primary agency, sole/primary causation, exceptionalism and hegemony are always wrong but popular with those who attempt to conflate knowledge with belief, thereby facilitating self-transcendence through ignorance (try to avoid emotional pavlovian knee-jerking – ignorance is a state of ignoring things), which is facilitated by belief in sole/prime agency, sole/prime causation, exceptionalism and hegemony which obfuscates understanding that oftentimes “The US” and others are opportunitists who participate, but do not control or direct.

Some who find the statement above not “plausible belief” may seek to cite “Ukraine” in corroboration of their lack of understanding that “The United States of America” gained an albatross, whilst the Russian Federation gained a new member (no sexual innuendo intended), and it is unwise to describe an ongoing lateral process by a moment in that ongoing lateral process.

There were and continue to be many reasons for many of the population of Kazakhstan to “riot/revolt” as is the case elsewhere within coercive social relations, including the self-misrepresented “The United States of America” not conflated with/restricted to a current geo-political construct with the construct Canada to the north and the construct Mexico to the south, that require/will continue to require a lateral process of transcendence facilitated with the complicity of those seeking to “direct”.

Hence for politeness, all participants should be thanked for their service.

Posted by: NotEuclid | Jan 6 2022 13:55 utc | 31

Meanwhile.... back home in NATO.....

mRNA "vaccines" and myocarditis.....

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-on-covid-vaccines-and/comments

"The study, which British researchers released in late December, showed that the risk of myocarditis almost doubled after the first Pfizer shot in men under 40. Then it doubled again after the second and doubled again after the third - to almost eight times the baseline risk.

SOURCE: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1.full.pdf

For the Moderna vaccine, the risks were even higher, reaching 16-fold after the second shot. (The risk of a third Moderna shot could not be calculated because too few people received it.)

Because each Moderna shot contains 100 micrograms of mRNA, while each Pfizer shot contains 30, the findings suggest strongly that the heart risks are dose-related and likely to continue to rise with each additional shot.

The study also contained some evidence that post-vaccine myocarditis might be more dangerous than other forms of myocarditis. It showed a trend towards higher death rates in people hospitalized for myocarditis after vaccination compared to other myocarditis cases.

Perhaps the above is causing this....

https://justthenews.com/nation/states/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-40-among-people-ages-18-64

The head of OneAmerica insurance said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

Perhaps this explains the missing 1.1 million people not joining the USA working age population, that Denninger discovered.

How exactly is NATO going to war while at the same time destroying the heart health of their working age male population, and the fertility of their female population... or hasn't anyone noticed the sharp increase in miscarriages, premature menopause, and other female reproductive problems of late.

INDY

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Jan 6 2022 13:56 utc | 32

"Why don t they hold their cards more closely to the chests?"

Simply because of their imperial arrogance and over confidence, after all they ve got so many victories and the adversaries were convinced or placated by a simple flurry of media controlled lies.
It s the same in their Foreign Relations Committee , US Senate. They call some big pentagon guy, or some nominated boss and ask questions. I read them many times and it s more than frequent that the dudes CANDIDLY confess they intentions and misdeeds abroad.
They feel they dont need to behave otherwise.

Posted by: augusto | Jan 6 2022 13:58 utc | 33

"Economics dominates politics - and with that domination comes different forms of ruthlessness."
- Chris Hedges

Posted by: librul | Jan 6 2022 14:21 utc | 34

Western media now reporting that Russian military forces are on their way to Kazakhstan, is the ploy to stretch Russian military forces, to have them deployed on several fronts at the one time, and if so to why? and what will be Nato/USA's next move?

Also would it be to China's benefit to aid Russia in Kazakhstan, and surrounding countries to help keep trade routes open?

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2022 14:26 utc | 35

Something very important happened here:
“The CSTO Collective Security Council has decided to send the collective peacekeeping forces of the CSTO to Kazakhstan. This is the first time that the CSTO peacekeeping forces are deployed in a CSTO member state. The CSTO includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. The President of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan is the current Chairman of the Collective Security Council.
The total number of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO is about 3,600 people. Their composition and strength are determined by the decision of the CSTO Collective Security Council for each peacekeeping operation individually, according to the each specific situation in the conflict zone.”- from southfront news.
What this means that countries aren’t relying on UN peacekeeping forces. End of the UN security councils’ influence?
Think about it, if they are successful in bringing peace here who is going to rely on the UN? End of US U.K. NATO influence.

Posted by: Nutter | Jan 6 2022 14:30 utc | 36

Why I'm not surprised that MoA spins this as a Washington color revolution ...

That's of course nonsense. The USA has minimal influence in Kazakhstan (50.000$ annually is nothing), there is no developed civil society that could be influenced, NGO's play no role in the current uprisings (or in Kazakh society in general) and the course of events doesn't follow at all the textbook of a color revolution (the illigitimacy of elections as the immediate cause, peaceful protests vs. violent security apparatus in order to discredit the regime etc. etc.).

What really happaned is that this outburst of violence surprised everybody, including Moscow, Washington and the Kazakh leadership itself.


The intervention of Moscow is understandable. Russia can not just stand idle and let a neighbouring country slip into anarchy.

It just remains to be seen where this is supposed to lead to. The Russian government can't solve the problems of the Kazakh society. The more Russia intervenes the more it risks of being perceived by the Kazakhs as part of the problem.

Posted by: m | Jan 6 2022 14:33 utc | 37

@Shiffer 27.....Orc actors for sure, but the shit show still has a Hollywood director and producer.

That said, when an Eagle lands in snow, can it see the Bear trap?

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 6 2022 14:51 utc | 38

...lessening US military presence. . .
The US Central Command has held an annual joint military exercise in Kazakhstan, but they have apparently been absent since 2019. . .from CENTCOM:

Exercise STEPPE EAGLE is an annual, multi-lateral exercise sponsored the the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and executed by U.S. Central Command.
STEPPE EAGLE provides multilateral forces with the opportunity to promote cooperation among participating forces, build functional capacity, practice crisis management and enhance readiness through realistic modern-day interactive scenarios.
The exercise brings coalition forces together to build better understanding, friendship and readiness reinforcing our commitment to regional stability. The location of the exercise rotates yearly to provide our partner nations the chance to enhance interoperability.
This year, STEPPE EAGLE 19 will take place in Kazakhstan beginning June 17, 2019. It will focus on multinational Peacekeeping and Peace Support Operations. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 6 2022 15:02 utc | 39

It is like no one on this web site remembers Chechnya. Fools believing this is all about US-Russia--fucking Kazaks should be happy to be slaves for the oligarchs. NO WAR but CLASS WAR brothers.

Posted by: Mark E. Kaufmann | Jan 6 2022 15:05 utc | 40

Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 13:23 utc | 26

It is true that I made the comment without a real understanding of the sentiments in Kazakhstan. I have just watched Martinov, and he thinks that one of the big dangers is "Islamisation", and that the brutality/violence is the usual way of doing things (I'm paraphrasing things here).
**

There are couple of points of note;
1) The Quality of the Russian troops being sent there. (Quote) "Russia has deployed to Kazakhstan same military units (76th Guards Air Assault Division from Pskov and 45th Guards Spetsnaz (Special Purpose) Detached Brigade from Kubinka) who were lead force in occupation of Crimea in 2014".
2) The CSTO is a mutual defense pact and by sending (even small detachments) from each member country, the similarity between it and the stated purpose of NATO is evident. There have been quite a lot of exercises between different CSTO groups in the recent past.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 15:16 utc | 41

@imo | Jan 6 2022 11:29 utc | 17

That war criminal, Tony Blair getting a British Monarchy gong is another supporting signal echoing the Bush-Blair rampage across the Middle-east.
The petition against Blair is closing in on 800 000 signatures.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 6 2022 15:28 utc | 42

Eh, not the most favorable geographic location for an anti-China anti-Russia operation.

Here's something I'm curious about - KAZ has become a major cryptocurrency "mining" center, and finally the out-of-control power consumption of this "industry" forced the government to restrict it.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/10/22/kazakhstan-to-limit-power-for-crypto-mining-to-100-mw-nationwide/

Is this a factor?

Posted by: ptb | Jan 6 2022 15:30 utc | 43

"the course of events doesn't follow at all the textbook of a color revolution"

No, it does. Namely, use an unpopular change like a reduction of subsidies, increase of retirement age or another change that is routinely made under the tutelage of IMF and similar organizations offering "expert advise". Second, have organized armed groups of "civil society". Syria, Nicaragua etc.

Then have a "coordination center" suitably located abroad. In this case, some shady businessman who looted a bank in Kazakhstan and is wanted there is a spokesman of the protesters in Kiev, and suitable demands formulated, with nodes to xenophobes, islamists and Russophobes (of course, combinations differ).

So far, we do not know where armed groups came from, what caused complicity in some sectors of security forces. The textbook is, by now, a common knowledge, so different forces may pull the strings. In general, you need some brainwashed patsies, and some well armed folks or pay masters to take the charge in the aftermath.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 15:34 utc | 44

Much Ado About Nothing - Round Up The Usual Suspects - Regime Change US

Time for Putin to place his Jokers in the pack regarding these strategic measures Russia has in place should US-NATO fob them off on Security guarantees.

Prior to that meet America wishes to create as much chaos & distraction that will provide Delay, Distraction & Discord.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jan 6 2022 15:36 utc | 45

This one escaleted quickly.
In the morning, widespread popular protests against energy price surges.
By the end of the day, beheadings.
Supposedly, popular beheadings, yeah, sure.

Posted by: Cave Canem | Jan 6 2022 15:42 utc | 46

@Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 15:16 utc | 41

From one of the comments under Martyanov's latest post :

"I'd venture to guess the gas price hikes were coordinated with Moscow, knowing it would trigger the attempted coup prematurely."

That's an interesting theory, in my opinion. Maybe the idea was for it to happen during the Olympics (who would have guessed), but now it was preemted.

It looks like the main issue is a power struggle between Nazarbayev and his successor Tokayev, where Tokayev appears to have CSTO support. An interesting point is that recently in St. Petersburg, Putin met with Nazarbayev and Tokayev separately ...

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 6 2022 15:46 utc | 47

@ Nutter | Jan 6 2022 14:30 utc | 36 who noted that the CSTO is not the UN peace keeping forces and this represents a change in approach that cuts empire out

Thanks for that perspective. It could get a bit strained because the UN Charter is the Rules that Russia/China want to play by but they need to wrest control of the UN away from empire's embedded lackeys.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 6 2022 15:50 utc | 48

These Cunts can't let anyone be.
Bunch of psychopaths

Posted by: ld | Jan 6 2022 15:50 utc | 49

@ 24 There are US BioWeapons Labs in Kazahkstan and a couple year or so ago, there was a bad outbreak of black leg disease in the young cattle. The ranchers started to put 2 + 2 together and they suspected te US Labs, since Kazahk hasn't seen black leg for over 50 to 80 years . They protested and then they learned that the Gov. OKd another US Lab , to be built in an underground facility. Of course the GOV. tried to tell everyone that these Labs are beneficial - but they couldn't proove it - sooooo.All my info on this has been scubbed from the internet so if you can find that there are indeed Labs in Kazahkstan , like there are in Ukraine, Georgia etc. Bingo Dilyana Gaytandzhieva , a serious Bulgarian journalist had some good articles touching this - also.

Posted by: GMC | Jan 6 2022 15:55 utc | 50

They just flat out admit it has "nothing to do with defense or deterrence". I've been reading Craig Murray's account of his experience in prison, really brings home how evil the empire is.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 6 2022 15:59 utc | 51

Are we in that civilization war I keep writing about yet?/s

Empire is in the process of trying to consolidate control among nations around the world and these rebellions are part of those efforts......you are with us or against us sort of move.....desperation rather than merit motivated


Interesting times indeed.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 6 2022 16:05 utc | 52

There is a fungus that takes control of a flies brain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2Jw5ib-s_I US reminds me of that fungus.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 10:57 utc | 8

That is one of a whole class of fungi called entomopathogenic fungi, many of which are able to are able to alter the behaviour of their hosts for their own purposes. Another example is the wonderful and famous Chinese traditional medicine Ophiocordyceps sinensis.

I wouldn't honour the US by comparing them with such fungi, though - I would rather compare the US with a fly feeding on excrement and spreading disease.

Posted by: BM | Jan 6 2022 16:11 utc | 53

does anybody happen to know what was in the vial that Colin Powell brandished at the UN, pretending it was weaponized anthrax?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 6 2022 16:13 utc | 54

In watching the imperial machinations around the planet, the only places that have some level of immunity are places, such as Bolivia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, and China where there has been a definite program of local education and community development that has given people a basis by which to become immune against the both imperial and local oligarchs’ games.

In the States we for a brief time had developed such a tactic during W’s regime called the 50 State Strategy relying on development of resistance in all around the country. It was sponsored by Demographic Party leader, Howard Dean. This movement allowed the party to overthrow W’s regime. Once deposed, the new suit, party head, Citicorp employee and sociopath, Prez O’bummer dismantled this structure as it did not suit the needs of his employer. Inasmuch as the tactic did not have an underlying philosphical basis, other than the riddance of an opposing fool, it was easily forgotten, Dean cashed out, and was given a lobbying gig working for the Saudis.

During the 2020 dog and pony show, the DNC, that lovable private corporation answerable only to their owners, grabbed the outrage of the George Floyd murder, took over the “Black Lives Matter” movement and utilized it to drive a stake through the general populace and regenerate an old culture war. Standard strategy: divide and rule.

As an old fart who has watched the same tactics replayed over and over again though out my life, I recognized the move, but given the lack of evidence while the game was in play I was unable to even warn my children of it’s outcome, other than say in frustration, “this is BS”.

Given the US is an atomized, overworked people, dependent on oligarchic media, it is difficult for people to have the time or energy to be analytical of their own lives. A friend and Russian refugee of USSR’s dissolution once shared a common emigre’s joke, “the US is a forced labor camp with an abundance of particularly bad food”. I think he eventually gave up and went home once the dust settled. As a nation we are overworked and controlled by fear mongering, appealing to emotional, tribal thinking that has been utilized for control since our nation’s inception. As Chou En-lai once commented, “Americans have no sense of history”.

When economic politics blossomed in the US during the first Guilded Age and specifically the “Chicago Pullman Strike” of the 1880s, the development of a worker’s movement, “Communism” a re-incarnation of an old Christian/Buddist tradition of a common good arose in the States. When the Russians adopted this belief system, and formally politically adopted it, the American oligarchs quickly recognized its power, and re-branded it as a “foreign threat”, rather than a crude attempt to formalize a very old religious tradition, and way of thinking.

The promotion of hedonism, selfishness, and neoliberalism during the 70s and 80s, I believe was a planned counter revolution against the American cultural revolution of the 60s. The latter movement was an extension of the values resultant of the Great Depression, and a belief in the common good.

I have hope that when people become aware of other movements around the world, become sick of our own oppression, we will abandon our prejudices, tribal hatreds and do the right thing out of necessity. This will require an economic and historical understanding of reality.

Posted by: Michael.j | Jan 6 2022 16:15 utc | 55

I start with the assumption that the imperial power structure is very diffused and that coordination is harder and harder among these power groups-- military, intel, oligarchs, local thugs, etc. We will likely learn who started this, who took advantage to get their own cheap shots and who-- if anyone-- had an overall plan. Regardless, my guess is that the Victoria Nuland factions are happy with the Kazak chaos and are doing what they can to stoke it. They are classical bullies: they don't build, they only tear down. won't work though, IMO. Not there. Not anymore.

bottom line, the Empire continues to deteriorate rapidly.

Posted by: migueljose | Jan 6 2022 16:22 utc | 56

Posted by: Michael.j | Jan 6 2022 16:15 utc | 55

thank you. a very good summary of our recent history. wise words

Posted by: migueljose | Jan 6 2022 16:27 utc | 57

RAND are Khazari-Ashkenazi Tribal Run Zionist-Masonic Organization.

They operate to keep Anglo-Murican-ZioMasons Running the Hegemon, ISR, and Vassal Nation-States, PetroUSD, MIC, and KleptoCorporates - at the Expense/Exploitation/Ruination/Subjugation of ALL Others.

So these are expected of them; and will continue for Generation unto Generation. To Live Independently from them, one must live apart from their Direct+Indirect Influences.

Tough Call. Tall Fences make for Good Neighbors, Tall Borders make for Good Nation-States.

Posted by: IronForge | Jan 6 2022 16:42 utc | 58

I love how the Hasbara troll equivalents are dismissing U.S. involvement, 'the U.S. is in a weak position ...'
To run things, yes, to create a dumpster fire, no.

We don't have to win, we just want Russia to lose and don't care if we burn down the house with everyone in it. Look at Ukraine. Their economy is in shambles, their population is shrinking, they even have an arrest warrant out for Poroshenko but they are held up as a model democracy to challenge Putin.

Have you ever heard of 'Fire ships?'
---------------------------------------

BTW I scanned the RAND report, any suggestion that it is benign shows how jaded you are. We are howling at China just for wanting to grow their economy to become bigger than the U.S. as if it would be normal for a country to want to remain poor. The RAND report discusses how to screw Russia out of infrastructure projects.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jan 6 2022 16:44 utc | 59

Borrell has just been to Ukraine.

Now he's back in Brussels

BRUSSELS, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Top European Union diplomat Josep Borrell said on Thursday that Russia's military intervention in Kazakhstan brought back "memories of situations to be avoided".

Borrell expressed "great concern" about the situation and added: "Rights and security of civilians must be guaranteed ... EU is ready to support in addressing this crisis."


"I'm from Head Office and I'm here to help....."

Posted by: John Cleary | Jan 6 2022 16:46 utc | 60

There are also color revolutions taking place in Myanmar and Thailand. The common thread that gives all of these away as being CRs, is gratuitous violence and destruction of common property that apparently has nothing to do with achieving the "protesters'" aims. E.g. How does burning the ex-president's ex-presidential palace, help achieve lower fuel prices?

Posted by: foolisholdman | Jan 6 2022 16:46 utc | 61

So when is the U.S. going to .... sanction Russia for interfering in Kazakhstan :-) that is our favorite card.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jan 6 2022 16:53 utc | 62

pretzelattack | Jan 6 2022 16:13 utc | 54

does anybody happen to know what was in the vial that Colin Powell brandished at the UN, pretending it was weaponized anthrax?

It's a long time ago but I think I heard, nearer the time, that it was washing powder.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Jan 6 2022 16:58 utc | 63

Norwegian | Jan 6 2022 15:46 utc | 47

Some claim Nazarbayev and members of his clan have already left. Private planes were spotted leaving, (London?) but I have not seen this confirmed anywhere yet. How do you tell who was in them anyway, but it is clear that the first to leave will be the Oligarchs and coven.
***

There are a lot of other claims and counterclaims circulating.
1) A previous attempt at civil disturbance was made on the 16th December. Why? No data.
2) The amount of arms seized by rioters, and of course no real estimates of their total number yet.
3) What have been made "public" are various demands by rioters for reforms (Govt => go. Russians => go etc.) Which could equally be PR stunts to influence the populations of the EU and US that they should be on the Rioters "side".

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 6 2022 17:07 utc | 64

Biden used the word Democracy today.

Posted by: librul | Jan 6 2022 17:10 utc | 65

Posted by: foolisholdman | Jan 6 2022 16:46 utc | 61

Macron tries to instigate a color revolution at home, hoping for the support of the majority. That may be interesting.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 6 2022 17:16 utc | 66

@ rtm 30
the RAND report . . . is pretty tame stuff. In fact, that section is almost entirely economical in focus and includes hand wringing about inadvertently helping China's hand in central Asia if Russia is "extended"
Yes.
RAND's conclusion on Central Asia: ( p. 130)

Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia would be very difficult and could prove costly, and Russia’s influence might be reduced there in the long term without this measure. China will continue to expand there through its Belt and Road Initiative, and Japan and India have also engaged with the region, all of which could reduce Russia’s dominance. The main reason for increasing U.S. engagement in the region would be to benefit the United States: gaining modest help in implementing U.S. foreign policy goals, creating new opportunities for U.S. businesses, and channeling China’s outward efforts in directions amenable to the United States. Without great cost, however, increased engagement would be unlikely to extend Russia much economically, and backlash would need to be guarded against.

In fact the US has been delivering economic aid to Kazakhstan for years as a part of the US "New Silk Road' initiatives. This has included programs by USAID and the US Chamber of Commerce to (in effect) export US jobs overseas.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 6 2022 17:21 utc | 67

Great report and comments -

This is clearly a 'western' operation to add pressure on Putin. Those who believe this is Putin playing 7th dimension chess have obviously had one too many jabs.

And for the USA, and frankly folks, Americans are the only people who matter, this is major distraction from the first anniversary of Insurrection Day. Hmmm.

Happy New Year!

Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 6 2022 17:25 utc | 68

@BM (2)
I also find it curious that the Imperium's officials say what they're going to do out loud but I think the explanation is that these people are cunning, yes, but they are also rather stupid. Their conviction of their rightness, exceptionalism, power makes them stupid. Do we not see, over and over again, that their cunning plots backfire on them? Is the USA stronger today after 20-25 years of non-stop neocon cunning plots, or is it weaker?

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Jan 6 2022 17:34 utc | 69

Posted by: foolisholdman | Jan 6 2022 16:46 utc | 61

"How does burning the ex-president's ex-presidential palace, help achieve lower fuel prices?"

Not dissimilar to what happens during legitimate protests in the US. It is very hard for such to succeed in the US, though it should be noted that the original protest in Kazahkstan did. Pretty clear then that the violence was simply that, violence for its own sake. Time for all nations to separate the wheat from the chaff, and if they can't do that it does call into question the legitimacy of the government itself.

Thank you, b.

Posted by: juliania | Jan 6 2022 17:38 utc | 70

i really feel for the population of kazakhstan. as anyone knows it’s a klepto-oligarchy, advised by tony blair (enough said) and seemingly immune to its own population. thoroughly neoliberal, postmodern — definitely a prototype for 21st century regimes. but the dec. 16th protests the u.s. embassy seemed to have a premonition of were gonna be led by the pvk, said embassy, a banned party of disillusioned oligarchs that’s pro-business. proletarians these are not, at least not the leadership, especially considering all the embassy-listed protest sites were anti-soviet monuments.

whatever the big picture an element of this uprising is an oligarch faction probably plugged in as other posters said with oligarch networks in western ukraine and, through there, to the empire.

putin will not be a happy camper going into the u.s.-nato negotiations on sunday. as trump would say, the wall just got 10 feet higher. tense days ahead. nuclear war must be avoided at all costs.

Posted by: line islands | Jan 6 2022 17:42 utc | 71

I provided some points during yesterday's troll attack. The most important was the chain of communications between Putin and the presidents of the nations most closely involved--Kazakh, Belarus, Tajik, Armenia, and Nazarbayev--just prior to the new year, then yesterday. Also, CSTO has conducted many FTXs gaming this sort of scenario. Second was the admission by Psaki that the op is the Outlaw US Empire's as I related in a specific comment/post on that matter. All of this discussion and b's report prove that and more--my suspicion that this is a trap sprung by Putin and allies to smoke out the Outlaw US Empire's Terrorist Foreign Legion, which it has.

However, this assault by the Outlaw US Empire begs the following question: Who authorized the action since it directly undermines Biden's position for the upcoming negotiations with Russia? I see it as similar to how Trump was undermined. This brings up very serious implications: Is the DCI running the show or POTUS, or some other oligarchical entity? Furthermore, having now used military techniques to defeat this attack, will Putin now be more willing to use them to forge the security Russia demands? In other words, did the Outlaw US Empire's stupidity just heighten the overall threat level and negate the recent UNSC Declaration?

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 17:43 utc | 72

Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 6 2022 17:25 utc

And for the USA, and frankly folks, Americans are the only people who matter, this is major distraction from the first anniversary of Insurrection Day

Yeah, let's hope they notice what violent insurrection, be it planned, spontaneous, manipulated, or any combination of the three, actually looks like.

Posted by: john | Jan 6 2022 17:48 utc | 73

@ karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 17:43 utc | 72 who is asking about the initiation of this event in Kazakhstan?

I like your idea that it is Putin smoking out the terrorist Foreign Legion and that may be happening elsewhere as well instead of the view that it is empire circling the wagons under duress.

Blinken stating that Putin is holding a gun to Ukraine's head doesn't help Biden's negotiating position either.....I personally think empire is desperate and flailing with high school level staff like Blinken going up against professional level staff with Russia and China.....these are not the negotiating tactics of folks operating from positions of power/control

The smack down of empire is coming, IMO....if they don't fall on their face/sword first

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 6 2022 17:57 utc | 74

@ m | Jan 6 2022 14:33 utc | 37

The USA has minimal influence in Kazakhstan (50.000$ annually is nothing)

You misread. It's 20 projects, with $50.000 per project. Total sum $1M. Still not a lot, but that's just the NED, one out of many channels for US-led destabilization.

Posted by: Leif Sachs | Jan 6 2022 18:04 utc | 75

With this article in mind, I had to laugh at Joe Biden when he said in his speech today, that great countries don't hide from the truth they face it, he said it with America mind.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2022 18:07 utc | 76

@psychohistorian 74 and others re initiation of events in Kazakhstan

Yes it is an interesting idea (that Putin initiated it), however there are 2 points which in my thinking suggest that it is the evil empire:

1. We cannot conclude that: it is not the evil empire because Biden's position is undermined. The evil empire is not Biden, it is a set of interests not all of which are aligned, and which could be fighting among themselves.
2. Beheadings: somehow I do not see Putin condoning beheadings of police, but perhaps that is my wishful thinking.

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 6 2022 18:10 utc | 77

The Putinversteher here have not let me down.

Of course this had to be US funded and directed because the USA has a monopoly on tinhorn dictators and Putin is such a beacon of integrity and example of selfless dedication to the well being of his people...

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Jan 6 2022 18:23 utc | 78

@ 27 Skiffer - You are right about the Ukraine connection. Mukhtar Ablyazov, fugitive Kazakh bankster said so much on Belarus opposition channel, Белсат. Some Russian speaking friends of mine translated it for me. Тhe Kiev involvement mention comes in around 3:45 in.

Ablyazov

@ 50 - GMC - Thank you for mentioning Bulgarian journalist, Dilyana Gaytandzhieva. I read about her in States of Emergency by Kees van Der Pijl. I read a while back about a few bio (warfare?) labs in Kazakhstan where it seems like Ft. Detrick jobs out the dirty work. Super unpleasant stuff.

I think CSTO is going to knock some heads in Kazakhstan. Enough is enough. But at least the $86 billion of US blood money left behind in Afghanistan is being put to use. /s

Posted by: lex talionis | Jan 6 2022 18:36 utc | 79

And off topic, I wish all the Orthodox believers here, especially Julianna, a happy Epiphany.

Much love to everyone.

Posted by: lex talionis | Jan 6 2022 18:41 utc | 80

British intelligence and Turkey are likely behind what is happening in Kazakhstan:

British Intelligence Intensifies its Struggle against Russia and China in Central Asia (New Eastern Outlook)

"The appointment in June 2020 of Richard Moore's, a former ambassador to Turkey, as head of MI6, Britain’s foreign intelligence service, was a move to strengthen the British position in the Central Asian theatre. He is not only a stalwart Russophobe, but also a fierce apologist for Great Turania: that is, the success of the pan-Turkist aspiration to create a state uniting the Turkic-speaking peoples in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and even for that matter in the Russian federal republics of the Volga region, the Urals, and the North Caucasus. Richard Moore has long nurtured this project. The key to London’s plans in this area is winning the support of Erdogan, president of the Turkish Republic Erdogan, and the now-head of MI6 worked to realize this aim during his ambassadorship in Turkey in 2014-2018. To this end Moore organized repeated visits to Britain where the Turkish leader met with representatives of its political-military establishment; always supported Erodgan’s course for Turkey in his official statements; and gave packing to his political party. Since the abrupt cooling of Ankara’s attitude to the USA and the EU following the failed coup of 2016, which involved partisans of the Islamist preacher Gülen and members the American secret service, Britain has practically become Turkey’s leading ally in the West, with a central role played by Richard Moore. It was through Erdogan that Moore established a friendly relationship with the Azerbaijani leadership; through Erdogan that he actively observed the situation in the North Caucasus and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. British law enforcement and intelligent agencies showed a particular zeal for strengthening Britain’s position in Central Asia through their involvement with the elder daughter of Nursultan Nazarbayev and the disgraced daughter of the late Islam Karimov.

"With Moore taking the helm, British intelligence has noticeably intensified its activities in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Both pan-Turkist organizations" (I think this means Turkish NGOs which have significant presence in Kazakhstan) "have tame Islamist groups have been strengthened in order to neutralize the influence of Moscow and Beijing in the region. Turkey’s part in this great game is to serve as a kind of battering-ram for British interests."

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 6 2022 18:41 utc | 81

That's of course nonsense. The USA has minimal influence in Kazakhstan (50.000$ annually is nothing), there is no developed civil society that could be influenced, NGO's play no role in the current uprisings (or in Kazakh society in general) and the course of events doesn't follow at all the textbook of a color revolution (the illigitimacy of elections as the immediate cause, peaceful protests vs. violent security apparatus in order to discredit the regime etc. etc.).

An obvious NATO/MI6/CIA troll.....

That the US even mentioned sanctions to suppress a CSTO response, gives the game away.

Note how this troll mentions only one (1) of the dozens of grants made by the NED alone... not including $$$ funneled into the country by MI6 & other NATO agents... BTW... $USD 50,000 = $RUB 3,750,000... in a country where the average income is USD$225 - USD$900 / month.

This troll also ignores the fact that these peaceful demonstrators be-headed a COP after they captured him, and raided the armouries to get their hands on machine guns, RPGs, and AGTs.

Just be glad I'm not running things.... I'd use drones to locate their riots and hit them with GRAD.. My goal would be rivers of blood... Then I'd mobilize all males of military age, and put them on active duty, to eliminate the manpower they intend to use. Then I'd enfilade, enter, and tie all NATO diplomatic personnel to steel pipes driven into the ground, and get the BBC to film me burning them alive, daring NATO to respond... Then I'd take some of those Hypersonic AShMs and use the NATO ships in the Persian Gulf, Black Sea, and Med for target practice....

Just to make a point....

INDY

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Jan 6 2022 18:43 utc | 82

This comes very soon after Russia and China signed a major deal on joint space and moon exploration and research. Russia has a long term lease on Baikonur Cosmodrome and has not fully moved space launches to the new launch center Vostochny.

That space deal I think would play a part in the timing of the color revolution or why it has been triggered.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 18:45 utc | 83

I don't know how much I read in the western MSM reflects truth, but this morning's news feeds say dozens of protesters are already dead, and CSTO is being mobilized to confront this new version of Color Revolution. So far Chinese and Russian news feeds are more sanquine and low key about the ground situation, but do state that CSTO is now sending peace keeping troops.

Dozens dead, and more likely to follow. This is what I believe the west wants to see happen. Dead Kazakhs are wondeful raw material for cooking up their soup of tarnishing Russia/China/CSTO/SCO. They want more dead; it's only Kazakhs, is it not? Let the dead toll rise to thousands, 10's of thousands. More the better.

If this script does continue as the west wishes, somewhere down the line the Kazakh rioters will come to realize the costs they are paying (out of their own foolish will) for some gripes that themselves don't know how to ameliorate but blame their government for, because of western propaganda and instigations. They may even come to understanding the real western objectives, which is to make use of their dissatisfactions to stir chaos in their country, just to tarnish Russia/China. They may come to realize they are just the next Ukraine, Georgia, Hong Kong. They hurt their own nation, and they hurt themselves. The mafia hand that pushed them to this predicament didn't have to pay nothing, besides perhaps having to print a few billions of paper money, most of which fell into the pockets of the handlers with them getting a handfuls of pittances. That mafia hand will laugh their way out of their territories onto another theater--S. America maybe--while now they are left on their own to mop up, and to pay up.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 6 2022 18:54 utc | 84

Idiocrates @77 & psychohistorian @74--

Your #2 is the signature of ISIS/Daesh and is almost impossible to avoid when the Terrorist Foreign Legion operates.

Your #1--Biden is a cog in the Outlaw US Empire as POTUS, although perhaps he was undermined as was Trump as I noted in my comment.

It's been awhile since Andrew Korybko outlined Color Revolution aspects so they can be anticipated and defeated at their outset as we've seen over the last several years. The Outlaw US Empire doesn't have any other tools it can use in its attempt to destabilize Russia or the Eurasian region since it abandoned Afghanistan. It's possible there exists authorization to launch such an op if specific parameters appear, like civil unrest due to government action as was the primer in this case. Remember that each Outlaw US Empire Embassy is a base for such operations and might have autonomy to give the order.

All of Central Asia has places where the Terrorist Foreign Legion might think it safe to hide, and we know it was placed there. Their invisibility is questionable, particularly their com-lines. We also know the locals haven't been radicalized by Saudi Madrassas, so support from that source would be tenuous and hazardous. It's also rather difficult to lay-low for years without some form of local support, which is one way to infiltrate such groups. Russian and CSTO allied FSB agencies have worked against such groups since the CIA used its Daesh prototypes in Yugoslavia and Chechnya. There's a great potential for this op to expose the entire network so it can be rolled-up and finally destroyed within Afghanistan. But as usual we'll only learn a small amount of what actually occurs since Russia/CSTO won't want to give away any secrets/capabilities to NATO. Intercepting sat-phones would be a coup, for example.

This will likely have a negative impact on the negotiations. I again refer to the Lavrov-Solovyev conversation's content and perception that Russia is seen as a permanent enemy along the lines of the Kaiser's and Hitler's thought that was cultivated first by the Anglos.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 19:00 utc | 85

A couple of articles on the China Russia space deals. I ad thought They signed a new deal sometime before christmas, but according to the SCMP article it will be signed later this year.
The first link gives some reasons why I think this could be a factor in triggering the riots in Kazakhstan Where Russia leases the space launch center.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-strategic-implications-of-the-china-russia-lunar-base-cooperation-agreement/
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3161600/china-russia-set-renew-cooperation-deal-space-rivalry-

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 19:14 utc | 86

Further to my post @81

I think commentators maybe being too quick to heap the blame for the Kazakhstan trouble onto the US; it just may not be in US interests at this moment in time (they wish to cool it with Russia, not stir things up even worse). I do not think we are seeing an attempted colour revolution but something much more Islamist (or Turkish-aligned Islamist) and there may be more parallels with the influence Turkey wielded in Azerbaijan than with the traditional US/Western colour revolution.

None of the western NGOs that operate in Kazakstan appear to be in anyway involved in the trouble; I think that the same will not be able to be said for the Turkist NGOs (we will see).

And, according to Pepe Escobar (in his recent article), Russia believes that it is MI6 (not the CIA) that is pulling the strings.

Britain always gets an easy ride on such things; they should be subject to more scrutiny by the commentators here.

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 6 2022 19:17 utc | 87

Oriental Voice @84--

Twice in very public settings during December, Putin announced the CIA's use of its Terrorist Foreign Legion in the Chechen conflict, directly calling them the precursors to Daesh/ISIS. None of that was published or debated in the West as that truth can't be allowed to be contemplated. The core security of the CSTO and SCO is based on anti-terrorism and anti-extremism mechanisms and operations with intensive training aimed at the former that's escalated since 2014. Historically, the Outlaw US Empire's use of Death Squads and such is well known to all but US citizens; Russia certainly has no illusions about the utter ruthlessness of what differs little from Hitler's Genocidal brigades and the ideology that informs them.

Others have hinted at another purpose--to distract Outlaw US Empire public opinion from its very critical appraisal of the federal government which is continually increasing. But as Lavrov and Solovyev observed, there's very little the US Congress can do in its attempts to harm Russia short of declaring war. IMO, this is now a worse crisis than 1962 thanks to the entity that gave the go-ahead to the Terrorists in Kazahstan.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 19:22 utc | 88

For confirmation of Outlaw US Empire responsibility, see my comment from yesterday.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 19:25 utc | 89

@Stonebird, #13:

Your wild-ass theory presupposes Putin to have as dark a soul as those politician/decision-maker hovering in Washington/London/Brussel, et al. I can't rule out such possibilities, but I myself believe there are normal humans around still. The theory postulates that Putin would instigate hundreds/thousands dead just for the remote possibility of perhaps Nazabarev would graciously ease out of the way, and such that one of Putin's favored politician would rise into that power seat. I don't think Putin is such a person. Even if he is, I think Putin is smarter than the kind that would bank on so many coincident after-plots to fall into place to achieve his goal. There are other ways to get to his goals, much cheaper and much simpler. Besides, is Putin sure of Tobayev being one he can wrap around his finger?

It's only low-IQ animals such as Trump and Biden who would devise this kind of shenanigans to a dramatic outcome that may not even benefit themselves.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 6 2022 19:28 utc | 90

The activities of these nefarious NGOs has been well known for years. What I can't understand is why they have been allowed to operate in every country that the US wishes to destabilize. Only when they are caught red-handed in interfering does this happen. In Egypt some years ago President Sisi closed several of these down, confiscated all their files, software, computers, etc. and deported all non-native staff; these being primarily American. The Russians also closed some down, but others still operate. Why?

Why does not every nation that senses it could be in the US's cross-hairs not pre-emptively do this with all the Soros, NED and their ilk, funded organizations? Just shut them down and kick them out.

Posted by: Antoinetta III | Jan 6 2022 19:29 utc | 91

Another indication of a Color Revolution under way in Kazakhstan is that protests have flared up, at the same time yet apparently "spontaneously", in cities close to Kazakhstan's borders with other countries and regions also being targeted for regime change.

Aktau (and Mangystau region) faces the Caspian Sea across to Dagestan (in Russia) and Azerbaijan, with Turkmenistan not far away either. Almaty in the extreme southeast part of Kazakhstan is close to Kyrgyzstan, itself a site of Color Revolution activities, and Xinjiang (in China). Both these parts of Kazakhstan may very well have served as transit points for jihadists travelling on fake Turkish passports from Xinjiang on their way to the Middle East.

Perhaps we ought to ask where the thugs who overrun legitimate protests in Aktau and Almaty by setting fore to buildings, beheading police officers, insisting on legalizing polygamy and outlawing marriage between Kazakhs and non-Kazakhs (read: Russians) come from.

Significantly Aktau and Almaty are supposedly quite wealthy and Westernised cities while other less wealthy areas in the country appear unaffected by protests.

Nazarbayev was right to move Kazakhstan's capital away from Almaty and establish a new one (and a new city) in the middle of the country in a remote area. Astana / Nur-Sultan is closer to all parts of the country including its northern Russian-speaking areas and western oil-producing areas, plus it is less prone to foreign infiltration that might occur with Almaty. Diplomats and the spies among them have to travel a long way from Kazakhstan's peripheries to Astana.

Posted by: Jen | Jan 6 2022 19:46 utc | 92

@karlof1, #88:

Thanks for your comment. I wasn't aware of Putin's accusation of CIA involvements in the Chechen conflict. As you said, such titbits are not usually reported in western MSM.

But I disagree with you on the premise that this is a direr crisis than 1962. 1962 was one with the two superpowers of the time pointing nukes and other military hardware directly at each other. This one, the agitators are confined to a landlock venue that Lucifer's elves can't even effectively supply basic destructive hardware after the first batch of primitive weapons are exhausted. I doubt the west would haul nukes into Russo-land when a few hundred Kazakhs are rounded up and put to sleep.

Anyway, we'll see how far this tragedy will prolong as the new year rolls along. I rather think this event will expose the west's inability to launch color revs in the future, as their tactics are better known by humanity at large and the prices that victims paid are seen clearer by future victims.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 6 2022 19:46 utc | 93

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 17:43 utc | 72:
"Who authorized the action since it directly undermines Biden's position for the upcoming negotiations with Russia?"

I have commented several times over the past 6 months that it appears that there has been a split in the American oligarchic elites between the Atlanticist/Globalists anchored in London and American Firsters anchored on Wall Street. It is clear, ever since Russia unveiled its ultimatum and Biden, under the direction of American Firsters, accepted to discuss it, that the Atlanticist/Globalists are apoplectic and have been doing everything possible to scuttle the talks. AKDC's post (ADKC | Jan 6 2022 18:41 utc | 81) identifying that British Intelligence with the help of Turkey is behind these events fits perfectly with this line of thought.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 6 2022 17:57 utc | 74 - "I like your idea that it is Putin smoking out the terrorist Foreign Legion and that may be happening elsewhere as well instead of the view that it is empire circling the wagons under duress." Andrei Martyanov has in some of his videos postulated that Russia has adopted a tactic of keeping the West in tension. That seems to be one of the goals of "The Ultimatum". If so, it seems to be working. The tension is bringing the conflict between these two groups of oligarch elites out into the open, causing them to become careless, expose themselves and become easy pickings for Russia.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Jan 6 2022 19:49 utc | 94

What mI-6 agent or agent of some NED funded Spin tank is a Jeff Gillooly masterminding the operation?

Posted by: William Haught | Jan 6 2022 19:53 utc | 95

One little paragraph in Escobars article..

Until he did. He called for the CSTO to intervene to restore order. There will be a military enforced curfew. And Nur-Sultan may even confiscate the assets of US and UK companies which are allegedly sponsoring the protests.

Not just NGOs but UK and US companies operating in Kazakhstan behind the riots. It will be interesting to see what gets mopped up in the cleanup operation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 6 2022 19:58 utc | 96

ADKC @ 81 and dh-mtl @ 94.

The whole thing stinks of the UK's foreign office. The tell will be seeing who appears to be co-ordinating and donating to the message behind the 'peaceful' protests.

Posted by: S.O. | Jan 6 2022 20:02 utc | 97

The following is related but also off-topic. "Interview of Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to Izvestia newspaper, January 6, 2022", the transcript is in Russian. What follows is the first Q&A:

"Question: In January, Russian diplomacy will face a series of meetings on the dialogue on security guarantees launched by Moscow: on January 10 in Geneva with the United States, on January 12 – by the Russia-NATO Council and on January 13 – within the framework of the OSCE regional security body. Given such a variety of negotiation platforms, the proposed draft agreements with NATO and the United States and the reaction of the countries that have already arrived, how do you see the final result and in what time frame can it be achieved?

"Sergei Ryabkov: Both depend on our opponents, who are participants in these events. I would like to note that we will work in these areas together with Alexander Grushko and Alexander Lukashevich Kazimirovich. Here the technology is clear. We will hold the first orientation event next week, explain the logic of our approach and fix the elements without which it is impossible to talk about any productive process at all. The main thing for us in the current period is to deal with the position of the opponents. So far, we have heard from the United States, NATO, and other countries only the most general rather abstract comments in the spirit that something is acceptable, something is unacceptable, but the main thing is dialogue, and it is also important that Russia de-escalates. There are very few rational grains in this approach because of what we have talked about many times, namely, the non-stop, extremely intensive military and geopolitical development of the territory near our borders by NATO and the appearance of appropriate weapons systems there, the intensification of exercises and so on. The security situation has changed dramatically for us, so there was a need to urgently launch this process in accordance with the instructions of the President. As the President himself has said many times, we are counting on a fairly quick result. However, after the events that will take place next week, it will become clear whether rapid progress is possible, whether it is possible to move along the plots that interest us in the first place.

"I am not ready to set out a scale of priorities now, because first we need to hear what our opponents will say in response to the projects we have literally put on the negotiating table, what our partners will say on this topic. I would like to emphasise that immediately after the transfer of these projects to the Americans, we had a fairly productive conversation in Moscow with our CSTO allies and some other countries, and we are also in dialogue with them. This is not some vicious circle of contacts for westerners – absolutely not: we are fully transparent to our closest allies and partners in various formats. This work will continue, it is an integral part of the relevant efforts, that is, we will launch a comprehensive process in the coming days." [My Emphasis]

I very much expect the Kazakh events to affect the talks, but primarily from the opponents. The interview continues as an explanation of the process, making it easy to see how easily it can be derailed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 6 2022 20:04 utc | 98

Speaking of Slow News Day," I asked when the principle and interest will come with a vengeance. Well, that did not take long, did it?

Posted by: William Haught | Jan 6 2022 20:07 utc | 99

I have seen lots of arguing over which of the conjoined triplet, The Union State of Americastan, Israel, and Perfidious Albion is responsible.

Posted by: William Haught | Jan 6 2022 20:22 utc | 100

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